Latest / INSIGHT TODAY / Kornacki poll shows Democrats opening up a lead over Republicans on generic ballot

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Kornacki poll shows Democrats opening up a lead over Republicans on generic ballot · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: We are now just hours from election day with races
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  Speaker 1: that will give us new information about Americans views of
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  Speaker 1: the president and both parties. One year after Donald Trump's
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  Speaker 1: election and one year before the midterms a critical time.
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  Speaker 1: In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is seeking to flip the
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  Speaker 1: governor's mansion back to blue and her race against Republican
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  Speaker 1: lieutenant governor win some earl sears. While in New Jersey's
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  Speaker 1: gubernatorial election, Democrat Mikey Cheryl is looking to hold off
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  Speaker 1: a challenge from the Republican Jack Chitdarelli, now former President Obama.
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  Speaker 1: He was out on the trail and he was appearing
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  Speaker 1: this weekend for both Spanberger and Cheryl and trying to
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  Speaker 1: tie Chittarelli to President Trump.
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  Speaker 2: Her opponent not so much. Mikey's opponent has now run
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  Speaker 2: for governor three times in a row. I mean, I
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  Speaker 2: believe in persistence, but at a certain point, so three
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  Speaker 2: times in a row, other two times he loss. So
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  Speaker 2: this time his strategy is to suck up to the Republicans.
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  Speaker 2: In Washington.
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  Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Zoran mam Donnie, the thirty four year old Democratic socialist,
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  Speaker 1: is seeking to become New York City's next mayor. Mandani
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  Speaker 1: has become a lightning rod among Republicans, and the House's
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  Speaker 1: top Democrat, ha Keem Jeffries is pushing back on the
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  Speaker 1: idea that he is the future of the Democratic Party.
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  Speaker 3: Do you see, mom, Donnie is the future of the
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  Speaker 3: Democratic Party?
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  Speaker 1: Now?
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  Speaker 4: I think the future of the Democratic Party is going
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  Speaker 4: to fall as far as we're concerned relative to the
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  Speaker 4: House Democratic Caucus and members who are doing a great
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  Speaker 4: work all across the country as it relates to our
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  Speaker 4: need to both take back control of the House, but
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  Speaker 4: in doing so, make sure that we're communicating to the
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  Speaker 4: American people like we understand if you deserve better than
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  Speaker 4: the country that you have received.
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  Speaker 1: And over the weekend, President Trump falsely describing Mom dummy
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  Speaker 1: as communist and threatening to withhold funding for New York
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  Speaker 1: City if he wins tomorrow. Joining me now from New
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  Speaker 1: Jersey is NBC News correspondent Julie Serkin and NBC News
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  Speaker 1: Chief Data analyst Steve Kornaki, who joins me from the
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  Speaker 1: Big Board with even more from our new NBC News poll.
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  Speaker 1: Let me start with you, Julie. Democrats are trying to
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  Speaker 1: tie Chitdarelli to the Republican to he is the Republican
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  Speaker 1: of New Jersey to President Trump, and what is the response?
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  Speaker 1: What are you see?
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  Speaker 5: Well, Chitderelli is not really looking to be tied to
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  Speaker 5: Trump in that way, though he did embrace him, and
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  Speaker 5: of course Trump endorsed him. He's holding a tell rally
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  Speaker 5: for him tonight. Chitarelli knows that this is a blue
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  Speaker 5: state with a blue state government, and he needs to
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  Speaker 5: make sure that he still attracts independence and yes, even
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  Speaker 5: some Democrats, which is exactly where he was here in
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  Speaker 5: a democratic town, a Latino town, Dover, New Jersey, a
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  Speaker 5: couple of months ago, the day after he won the primary.
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  Speaker 5: I met him here, I spoke to him here. I
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  Speaker 5: went back and I visited some of the voters again.
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  Speaker 5: They are extremely split. Many of them voted for President Trump.
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  Speaker 5: Many of them who voted for President Trump telling me
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  Speaker 5: that because of the immigration ice rays and deportations, they've
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  Speaker 5: soured on their support for him. Still a healthy amount
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  Speaker 5: looking to support Chiarelli tomorrow. Here's a little bit of
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  Speaker 5: our conversation in exchange this morning. What do you credit
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  Speaker 5: with your tightening margins with Mikey Cheryl? Is it the
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  Speaker 5: president is it his backing. His approval ratings are not great.
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  Speaker 3: It's the positive energy and it's been demonstrated by this
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  Speaker 3: campaign from day one. We get up and down the state,
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  Speaker 3: we shake hands, we look people in the eye, we
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  Speaker 3: tell them we're going to solve the problems. That's what
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  Speaker 3: wins elections.
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  Speaker 5: What about the economy, sir, The ratings nationwide the President's
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  Speaker 5: handling of it are not as high. That was his
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  Speaker 5: biggest issue.
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  Speaker 3: Asked me about national issues. This is about New Jersey.
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  Speaker 5: It's reflecting in New Jersey.
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  Speaker 3: It's all about property. It's all about property to it's
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  Speaker 3: all about month electricity bills, it's about public safety, public
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  Speaker 3: educator filment. Those are New Jersey issues that my opponent
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  Speaker 3: wants to blame on the President. He's got nothing doing
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  Speaker 3: any of those things, so.
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  Speaker 5: Clearly trying to put some daylight Kelly between him and
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  Speaker 5: the President. I bring up this town that I'm in
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  Speaker 5: in Passaic County for reason. I'm sure Steve Kuarnaki's going
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  Speaker 5: to talk about it more because back in twenty twenty,
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  Speaker 5: President Biden beat Donald Trump in this county again primarily Latinos,
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  Speaker 5: especially in this town, by thirty five thousand votes. More
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  Speaker 5: than that. In twenty twenty four, Kamala Harris beat Donald
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  Speaker 5: Trump by five thousand votes. So that is why they're
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  Speaker 5: paying so much attention to this area.
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  Speaker 1: Kelly, And truly, I love when you have a really
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  Speaker 1: Jersey moment with a Jersey Paul.
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  Speaker 6: That was great.
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  Speaker 1: That really told us what it's like to be on
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  Speaker 1: the ground. So thank you for your work in the field.
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  Speaker 1: And Steve, tell us what does the big board indicate
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  Speaker 1: about tomorrow and election day? You've got new data for us.
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  Speaker 1: Break it all down.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, Kelly, these are some pretty tough numbers in our
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  Speaker 6: new NBC News poll for the president and for his
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  Speaker 6: party on the eve of these off year elections in
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  Speaker 6: New Jersey and Virginia.
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  Speaker 2: This is our.
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  Speaker 6: Generic ballot question. We asked this all the time, which
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  Speaker 6: party do you want to see control Congress? This is
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  Speaker 6: with an eye to next year's midterm elections. But check
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  Speaker 6: this out. We have the Democrats with an eight point
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  Speaker 6: advantage here on the generic ballot over Republicans. For some comparison,
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  Speaker 6: we checked in earlier this year in the spring, and
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  Speaker 6: this was essentially dead even it was plus one for
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  Speaker 6: the Democrats. Then it is plus eight for the Democrats. Now,
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  Speaker 6: so again this poll showing Trump's approval rating following the
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  Speaker 6: forty three percent, and showing Democrats opening up a lead
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  Speaker 6: on the generic ballot, also seeing a bit of an
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  Speaker 6: enthusiasm difference between the parties. This is measuring who has
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  Speaker 6: the highest level of interest in the mid term elections.
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  Speaker 6: I mean this number sixty six percent overall, that's extremely high.
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  Speaker 6: We're still a year away from the midterms. You would
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  Speaker 6: normally see this number like a week before the midterms.
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  Speaker 6: We're seeing it a year out.
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  Speaker 2: But you can see there.
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  Speaker 6: Is a bit of a disparity. It's about three quarters
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  Speaker 6: of Democrats only about two thirds of Republicans with that
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  Speaker 6: highest level of interest. So again, could be driving some
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  Speaker 6: of the Democratic advantage in that generic ballot. Also could
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  Speaker 6: be a factory in those elections tomorrow in Virginia and
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  Speaker 6: in New Jersey. Also there's this the Republicans. This is
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  Speaker 6: sort of their hope. The hope they draw from our poll.
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  Speaker 6: It's that the Democratic Party has an image problem. You
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  Speaker 6: could see here positive twenty eight percent about the Democratic
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  Speaker 6: Party as a whole, negative almost twice that an outright
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  Speaker 6: majority fifty three percent of voters with a negative view
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  Speaker 6: of the Democratic Party. Now the Republicans, by contrast, they're
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  Speaker 6: not popular, they're just less unpopular, so an advantage for
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  Speaker 6: the Republicans there. And then we asked about the economy,
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  Speaker 6: the Republicans, which party would do better on it? The
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  Speaker 6: Republicans with a one point advantage. But the news here
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  Speaker 6: is that's way down. For the last several years Republicans
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  Speaker 6: have had a decided generally double digit advantage on this question.
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  Speaker 6: In the last few months that has basically moved into
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  Speaker 6: a wash between the two parties, again, Trump getting low marks,
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  Speaker 6: particularly for how he handles the economy. And then we
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  Speaker 6: basically asked what do you want your vote to mean?
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  Speaker 6: Do you want it to be a sign of support
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  Speaker 6: for the president, opposition or not really either one of them,
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  Speaker 6: And again you can see there's more energy on that
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  Speaker 6: opposition side. So we've seen the opposition party Kelly tend
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  Speaker 6: to do well in the past, and these off year
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  Speaker 6: elections like we're going to see tomorrow, tend to do
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  Speaker 6: well in the midterm elections. The polling data we have
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  Speaker 6: here from our new readout is in line with that,
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  Speaker 6: so be very interesting to see those results tomorrow. In
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  Speaker 6: light of what this poll is telling us today.
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  Speaker 1: Well, it's certainly getting me interested in what happens tomorrow
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  Speaker 1: because when you talked about that enthusiasm level in the
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  Speaker 1: midterms a year away, when so many of us think
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  Speaker 1: of a lot of the public being a bit weary
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  Speaker 1: of politics, and yet the numbers revealed there is some
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  Speaker 1: real interest in being able to use your voice as
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  Speaker 1: a voter. Is that what you're taking away from this?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean one thing I'm looking at tomorrow beyond
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  Speaker 6: obviously who wins and loses, is what is the turnout
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  Speaker 6: level in these elections in New Jersey, in Virginia, also
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  Speaker 6: in New York City by the way, where we're getting
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  Speaker 6: some look at the early voting data and the mayor's
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  Speaker 6: race there showing you know, potentially record chattering overall turnout
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  Speaker 6: there as well. So yeah, that level of interest are
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  Speaker 6: we just seeing it in the number of people who
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  Speaker 6: vote whoever they're voting for.
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  Speaker 1: Well, you know you're always our main event on election days,
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  Speaker 1: So rest up, be ready for tomorrow. Don't know if
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  Speaker 1: it'll be an early night or a late one, but
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  Speaker 1: we'll be looking for all of your analysis as the
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  Speaker 1: data comes in.
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  Speaker 6: Thank you, Steve, Thanks Kenny, We thank you for watching
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  Speaker 6: and remember. Stay updated on breaking news and top stories
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  Speaker 6: on the NBC News app, or watch live on our
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  Speaker 6: YouTube channel