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Army vs Navy Picks, Early Bowl & CFP First Round Predictions · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're going over Army Navy, We're going
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: over a few bowl games, and we got to hit
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the CFP first round.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: Hey, what's up y'all?
• 0:09
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  Speaker 3: to win the season. But again it's not a competition.
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  Speaker 5: Their twelve days off Christmas, your spot had for me
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  Speaker 5: stucking finners, five mins spies for Christmas, case, three brussels,
• 1:00
  Speaker 5: two turkey legs under Christmassmate, super easy.
• 1:06
  Speaker 4: Fine, You're super easy, Supermarket.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Welcome in winning cures everything.
• 1:13
  Speaker 6: It's a college football podcast.
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  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCV on all
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  Speaker 6: With your picks, all that good stuff.
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  Speaker 1: But also subscribe to the podcast if you haven't done that.
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  Speaker 1: I do some audio only stuff over there. Released one
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  Speaker 1: on Monday after the whole CFP thing, but I'm gonna
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  Speaker 1: to the Winning Cures Everything podcast. All right, we got
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: quite a bit to discuss today. We're going over some games.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: We got a lot of bowl games that we are
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: going to be hitting. No, we are not opting out,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: unlike some of the other college football teams that have
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: decided to do so. If there is football, we're gonna
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: be discussing it. So let's not waste a bunch of time.
• 2:05
  Speaker 6: Let's get into.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Game number one, two pm Central Time, God's time zone,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: of course, on CBS. It's Army and Navy, this one
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  Speaker 1: from Baltimore, Maryland. Navy a six and a half point
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  Speaker 1: home favorite, home favorite total of thirty eight and a
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: half on this and let's go ahead and take a look,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: shall we. Navy is two and four against the spread
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: at home minus one point eight, and Army five and
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: one against the spread on the road this year plus
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: four point eight. Navy is one and five against the
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: spread so far as a favorite, and this number has
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: gotten known up there. Six and a half, of course,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: is the number. My projected stat spread has it by seven.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Navy minus four. My last four
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: weeks actually has Army favored by a little over a touchdown,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: kind of surprising. My projective first half spread is right
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: there along with it. Navy strength of record. I mean,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: they're nine to two. It makes perfect sense. Army, of course,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: they are six and five thus far on the year,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Navy three and seven against the spread overall, Army five
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: and six. The one I believe is for an FCS opponent,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: or it could just mean a tie, but regardless, we
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: don't count ties on here. So Navy three and seven
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: against the spread.
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: Let's start off with Navy on offense.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: They run the ball, but also they're pretty good at
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: throwing it, and Army's defense sucks number one oh three
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per drive. They are number one twenty
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: one in defensive success rate. They are number one twenty
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: two against the pass, number ninety seven against the rush,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: so Navy should be able to move the football on
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: these guys. On the other side, it's kind of the
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: same thing. Navy is number one twenty seven in PPA
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: allowed per drive. They are number eighty one in defensive
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: success rate, number one oh four against the past, they're number
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: sixty against the rush.
• 4:00
  Speaker 6: Issue when you get into a.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Game like this is these two teams run incredibly similar styles.
• 4:07
  Speaker 6: The talent profile.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Is basically the exact same thing. I mean, you get
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: what you get. Last year it was thirty one to thirteen.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I believe I didn't write it down, but Navy put
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: a thumping on him pretty good last year. This year,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: do we see the exact same thing. Navy number thirty
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: five in five Factors rank, Army number eighty six.
• 4:35
  Speaker 6: I worry about that.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Because I do think that Army, while not great, they're
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: certainly better in turnover margin number thirty five. They're number
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: one in penalties per game, Navy number eighty three in
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: pendlies per game. You don't typically see that from a
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: service academy. They are number sixty seven in turnover margin,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: and the biggest problem for them is they cannot generate
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: turnovers number ninety three and takeaways per game. They are
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: really bad at aginst the pass. They're okay against the run,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: number sixty six in yards allowed per rush, and Army's
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: offense while they do run at eighty five percent of
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: the time, they're only number eighty three in rushing success rate,
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  Speaker 1: number one twenty one in rushing explosive or one thirty
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: one excuse me, in rushing explosiveness. But there are number
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: seven in stuff rate, number sixty three in offensive lineyards.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: So the offense not nearly as good as what Navy
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: brings to the table with quarterback Blake Horvath number.
• 5:28
  Speaker 6: Fourteen and PPA per pass.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Now granted they only throw the ball less than twenty
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: three percent of the time, but Navy number three in
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  Speaker 1: PPA per rush, number two in yards per rush, number
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  Speaker 1: three in rushing success rate, number three in offensive.
• 5:43
  Speaker 6: Line yards, et cetera.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Army not fully equipped to be able to deal with
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: something like this. Navy is number thirty four in points
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, Army's defense number seventy four. On the
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: other side, Army is number nine in points for scoring
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: opportunity and Navy's defense is number one twenty, but Army
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: doesn't exactly get down there very often. Army is not
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: great at sustaining drives, I'll say, and on top of that,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: they're not really good at finishing drives. Navy, on the
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: other hand, pretty good at that. So if he comes
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: down to who do I think has the more clutched gene,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: I think it's Navy, and I think the number is
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: kind of right dead on. Last year we saw this
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Navy team that was significantly more talented kind of handle Army.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I kind of look for them to do the exact
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: same thing here. I don't think Army is gonna put
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: up a lot of points here.
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: And you know it's not that I'm expecting to points
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: in this game. I mean the.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Undergoes over frequently. The total here is thirty eight and
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: a half. It would have gone over that last year.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not suggesting that you've taken over, but I would
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: suggest that Navy is probably and I know that my
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: power rating and my last four says something different, but
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Navy minus seven here, This thing is on the other
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: side of a key number. Typically I like taking dogs.
• 7:12
  Speaker 6: Not in this instance.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I think Horvath and company are just a significantly better
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: team overall. I think they're gonna put up points. I
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be hard for Army to keep up.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for a double digit win for Navy here,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: so I will take the Midshipman minus the six and
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: a half. Saturday night, seven pm Central Time, God's time
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Zone on ABC, this one after after I believe the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Heisman Trophy ceremony.
• 7:39
  Speaker 6: It is the Bucked Up LA.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Bowl, presented by Gronk. I don't know why we're still
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: doing that. It's in Los Angeles, California, Boise State playing
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: against Washington. Washington a nine and a half point favorite
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: total of fifty two and a half on this and
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: that is up from the eight and a half that
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: was when I generate the generated these sheets the other night.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Washington power rated by seven here last four weeks Washington
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: by eleven point four, and my projected stat spread has
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Washington by ten point six y three.
• 8:11
  Speaker 6: So let's get into it.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Let's see, uh, Boise is zero and three against the
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: spread in their last three bowl games. In every bowl
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: game since twenty twenty they didn't play in a couple
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: of those. They are minus seven there, Washington two and
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: two against the spread. Since twenty twenty, they are plus
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: point four in their bowl games. Jedfish staying at Washington.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: He did not take the Florida job. Kind of surprised
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: by that. I really thought he was going to be
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: the guy uh to take it. But I mean, absolutely
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: fantastic recruiting job that he's done.
• 8:46
  Speaker 6: They are building a.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Great roster, and Washington looked pretty good for most of
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: the year. They did not look good against Oregon to
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: close out the year, but nobody other than Indiana looks
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: really good against Oregon. So Washington number thirty eight in
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, Bois number seventy three, and Boise will
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: have their quarterback.
• 9:05
  Speaker 6: Everything looks good there, but.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: The offense is still kind of eh. Boise was able
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: to run the football on UNLV when they got wins
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: this year, it was because they were able to bully
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: teams in the trenches. I don't think you're gonna be
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: able to do that against Washington. Although you know, Washington
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: really good against the run, number thirteen and ppa allowed
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: per rush, number nineteen in the yards allowed per rush,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: but there are number fifty four and offensive line yards
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: allowed number ninety two in stuff rate allowed. Boise, you know,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: number fifty two in offensive line yards, number fifty in
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: stuff rate. Maybe they can get a little bit of
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a push here. I'm not fully expecting it, but regardless
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: is what it is. On this can Boise finish drives.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: They are number fifty nine in points per scoring opportunity.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: They are number nineteen in scoring opportunities per game, so
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: almost seven drives per game. Do they get a first
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: down inside the opponent forty? Washington number forty seven in
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game, but they are number twenty seven
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: in points allowed a per scoring opportunity per game. So
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: this Washington defense is pretty good, pretty good. On the
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: other side, the Washington offense really good. Boise's defense is
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Washington is number eighteen. Jed Fish and company know how
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: to finish drives. Demand Williams, he's gonna play. He's coming
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: back to school next year. Don't think we've got a
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: whole lot to worry about as far as people sitting
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: out this game. There may be a few opt outs
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: here and there, but regardless from what I've seen, we
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: got rosters.
• 10:40
  Speaker 6: We're good to go.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Washington is immensely more talented overall than Boisse number twenty
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: seven in overall talent rank, Bois number eighty. And the
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: defense for Boise good against the pass. The issue for
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: them is that Washington is number seventy nine in pass
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: rate in the country. Boise is number one twenty four
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per rush, Washington's offense number nine, Boisse
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: number one sixteen in yards allowed per rush, Washington's offense
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: number forty four. There's just a really big difference here.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: And when you look at explosiveness, Washington number twenty five
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness, Bois number one twenty in rushing explosiveness allowed.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I think that Washington is going to be able to
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: do some things, especially when they use Williams as a rusher,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: which they might not do a ton, but it I
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna be enough. Nine and a half is
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the I mean, it's going in the right direction. Washington
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: minus eight and a half is what I had it
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: at and now it's Washington minus.
• 11:41
  Speaker 6: Nine and a half.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: It's still under that key number of ten. Washington just
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a much.
• 11:46
  Speaker 6: Better football team overall.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna handle business, and I think they
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: will use this as a way to jump into next season.
• 11:57
  Speaker 6: They are eight and four. They are.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Looking for that ninth win, and Boise already has their
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: ninth win. They are nine to four, but that is
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Againstate Mountain West schedule. Washington I think has a chance
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: to compete in the Big Ten next year. We'll see
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: how they do with travel and whatnot. But as far
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: as this game is concerned, this Boise team is not
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: the same team that made the playoff last year. I
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna have trouble here. Give me Washington minus
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. The is four s salute to
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Veterans Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, and you got two Alabama
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: teams in Troy and Jacksonville State. This one eight pm
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ESPN on Tuesday, December sixteenth. Troy a
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite with a total of
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: forty six and a half on this one, and looking
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: at the bowl spread records, both.
• 12:56
  Speaker 6: Are one and one.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Troy plus one and a half Jacksonville State minus two
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: point three. Excuse me, Troy minus two point three Jacksonville
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: State plus one and a half. The only issue that
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: we've really got here is that Jacksonville State does not
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: exactly measure up with Troy when it comes to talent. Now,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: it's not that it's not that Troy is significantly more talented.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: They're number eighty eight in overall talent rank at on three,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is number one oh five. But when you
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: start diving into position groups, Jacksonville State number one thirty.
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: Five in offensive line.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: As far as the position ranking goes, Troy's defensive line
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: number ninety eight, Troy number seventy seven in offensive line,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: number one oh one in opponent defensive line for Jacksonville State.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I I will tell you this, Jacksonville State's running back fantastic,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: absolutely fantastic. They are number sixteen in PPA per rush,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: number thirteen in yards per rush, number twenty three in
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate. Troy's defense number eighty two, number one
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: oh three, number sixty three in those metrics. That's where
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is going to have some success here. This
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: number was at four, it's down to three and a half.
• 14:10
  Speaker 6: Now.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: Troy, I do think, is more talented along the lines
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: of scrimmage. They've got some more weight, they got some
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: bigger bodies. It's just a better overall football team. The
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: issue is that Troy without Goose Crowder. I mean the
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: ankle gone in that Sunbelt Championship game just and they
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: were hanging in that game with James Madison as well.
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: I don't know.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: What to expect now with the backup quarterback coming in again,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: because Troy was not good with that backup quarterback defense
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the pass, You're not gonna have to
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: worry about that a whole lot with Jacksonville State. They
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: throw the ball less than thirty five percent of the time.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: It's number one twenty nine and pass rate. Jacksonville State
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: is number sixty three in points per scoring our oportunity,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Troy is number twenty nine.
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: Difference here, of course, being that.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: I think Jacksonville State's going to be able to do
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: whatever they want to run the football against Troy's defense.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Troy is not good at anything
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: on offense. They're abysmal running the football. Number one thirty
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: two in yards per rush, number one twenty four in
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush, number one fifteen, and rushing success rate.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: It's not that Jacksonville State's good, they're perfectly mediocre. Number
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: seventy eight in PPA allowed for rush, number sixty one
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: in yards allowed for rush, Number seventy eight and rushing
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: success rate, and they're pretty good as far as offensive
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: line yards allowed, number thirty three. There, Troy is number
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: sixty two in points per scoring opportunity, but Jacksonville State
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: number ninety five. On the other side of that is
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: the fact that Troy doesn't get down there very often,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: number one twenty three in scoring opportunities per game. Jacksonville
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: State is number forty six, so they don't allow a
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: lot of drives for the to get a first down
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: inside their forty Jacksonville State number sixty two, and five
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: factors rank Troy number seventy six. This feels like a
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: field goal game. And Troy with the backup quarterback, I
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: don't know what to make of it. Jacksonville State is
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: number one thirty six and current strength to schedule Troy
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: number ninety six, but again with the backup quarterback, and
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: you don't know exactly where the motivations lie. Like Gerard
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Parker had a good season this year. Eight and five
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: is really good, but also you know, Charles Kelly and company,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: eight and five is fantastic for them.
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: This is a rivalry rivalry.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, these are not exactly teams that play all
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: that often, but they are both from Alabama. They're playing
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: a bowl game in Alabama. I think you're gonna see
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: a pretty good crowd. I think this is a field
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: goal kind of game. So in this instance, even though
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is the less talented team, they do the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: one thing on offense that Troy is not good at defending.
• 17:03
  Speaker 6: I think we can see an upset.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I'll take Jacksonville State plus three and a half. Are
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• 17:54
  Speaker 7: At Christmas, visit to Dondrum with Mom stuff fuller than
• 17:57
  Speaker 7: Santa Sac On the twenty fourth at the ice rink
• 18:00
  Speaker 7: is clutching the edge while my little one is lapping
• 18:02
  Speaker 7: us and Brown Thomas's spraying the perfumes around like air fresheners.
• 18:05
  Speaker 8: We do Harvey Nichols and always Reese m and s.
• 18:08
  Speaker 8: She gets her brows done at Edvard and pink talk
• 18:10
  Speaker 8: about her new face. Then it's Katsus and Wagamama and
• 18:13
  Speaker 8: a handsol and Gretel Panto at the Mile Theater. Later
• 18:16
  Speaker 8: I drop her home and Mom says, thank you, Pet.
• 18:19
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  Speaker 1: I already told you to make sure that you were
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: subscribed to the podcast, the Audio podcast, but also if
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: you haven't, if you liked these sheets and whatnot, I'm
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: gonna do these for every single bowl game. Already have
• 19:06
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• 19:09
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• 19:17
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• 19:32
  Speaker 6: All Right.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: College Football Playoff Round one. This one in Norman, Oklahoma,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: on Friday, December the nineteenth, the Oklahoma Sooners hosting.
• 19:41
  Speaker 6: The Alabama Crimson Tide. And yes, we have already.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Seen this game once this season, just like we saw
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Georgia and Alabama. Alabama wins in Athens, Georgia wins in Atlanta.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Completely different games depending on who actually plays in the games. Right,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Alabama has a couple of weeks.
• 19:58
  Speaker 6: To get healthy.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: They should have have a large contingency of the injured
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: players that were out for the SEC Championship game. They
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: should be back for this game. In the first game
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: between Alabama and Oklahoma, Oklahoma win won twenty three to
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: twenty one in Tuscalousa. This one, of course taking place
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: in Norman, and Alabama had like a two hundred yards
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: excuse me, a two hundred yard.
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: Advantage in that ball game.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: But they lost the turnover battle three to nothing, and
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: they lost the special teams battle, they lost the field
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: position battle.
• 20:30
  Speaker 6: They I mean, there were.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Several things, but Alabama showed that they could drive the
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: ball on this Oklahoma defense. And that is the big
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: thing about Oklahoma. They are number four and PPA allowed
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: per drive the Oklahoma offense. Nothing to right home about
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: number ninety seven there. So as far as PPA margin
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: that's predicted points added, they are number twenty seven. Alabama
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: is number twenty. They're number twenty six on offense, number
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: nineteen on defense. Pretty balanced team overall when you really
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: look at it. Bama pretty good against the run. I
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: don't think he got anything to worry about with Oklahoma
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: running the football. John Matier can escape the pocket some,
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: but when he does interesting things happen, it's gonna be
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: either something explosive or it could end up being a
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: turnover and Oklahoma has gotten better as far as their
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: turnover margin, but they are still number eighty one in
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: that they are number sixty nine and giveaways per game
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: number ninety four and takeaways per game. Probably should have
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: lost the game to LSU, but they found a way
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: to win it. The defense did just enough and once
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: if you only give up thirteen points, then all you
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: need is a couple of big plays, and that's what
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: they can get out of Jometier. So you look at
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the offense, there's nothing to write home about here. Not
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: great throwing the football number eighty one and QBR number
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: seventy two in yards per attempt, rushing the football number
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: ninety one or sorry, number one oh eight, yards per
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: rush number one oh six, and rushing success rate. Alabama's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: defense all year long, they have been good enough to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: defend that kind of stuff. So Alabama's defense again number
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: nineteen and PBA allowed for drive number seventeen in defensive
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: success rate, number thirty one against the pass, number seventeen
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: against the rush. Oklahoma number sixty six in points per
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, but there are only number eighty five in
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game. That's first downs inside the opponent forty.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Alabama is number thirty seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven in scoring opportunities per game, so they
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: don't allow you unless you win the field goal or
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: the field position battle, is what it is. Bama's number
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: one thirteen in special teams efficiency, Oklahoma's number twenty one.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: A lot of that can, of course be attributed to
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: Tate Sandel.
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: Who I believe is going to win the lu Groza.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: We'll see, but he has been outstanding all year, so
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma understands the value of points. He is about as
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: automatic as you can get. Now, on the other side,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Bama cannot run the football. That is what Oklahoma does best.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: But Bama number one twenty in yards per rush, number
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: one oh eight in rush rates, so they don't do
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: it very often, less than forty five percent of the time,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: number eighty four in rushing success rate, but in certain
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: spots when jam Miller's healthy. And now I don't think
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Kevin Riley, the third string is going to be back.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: I think Daniel Hill will be healthier than he was.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: In the SEC Championship game.
• 23:30
  Speaker 6: You were at a.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Point where Bama was having to play ak deer who
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: is their fourth string freshman running back meaningful snaps in
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: the SEC Championship game. That's how beat up Alabama has been.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: You give him a couple of weeks off, we'll see.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Kaylend Wore seems to believe that a lot of the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: guys that were out are going to be healthy for
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: this game, and I would assume for the playoff run
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: if they were to make one.
• 23:55
  Speaker 6: Bama passing the football.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: As bad as things have looked with Tyson as of late,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: here's one thing that I don't understand, by the way,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: because Oklahoma's gonna try and take advantage of this. Oklahoma
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: is number three and have a rate Alabama number twenty
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: seven and have it cloud. They don't exactly help Tye
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Simpson with the play calling because in certain situations and
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: you can see like the passing downs PPA number sixteen,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: passing down success rate number twenty three, he's still on
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: third and eight. I mean, other teams just pin their
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: ears back and get after him. Georgia I think had
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: like eighteen quarterback hurries pressures. They don't do anything fast.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: If they don't do anything fast in this game to
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: where they get the ball out to their playmakers, and
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: just let them make plays. Simpson's gonna get killed again.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: So I'm curious what we can expect. I don't know exactly.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: As far as in tangibles go, Alabama number twenty two
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: in penalties per game, Oklahoma number one oh two, Batman
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: number twenty six, and turnover margin Oklahoma number eighty one.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Bama is number thirty in points per scoring opportunity, Oklahoma
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: number five in points allowed per scoring opportunity Batman number
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: forty five in scoring opportunities per game, Oklahoma number fifteen
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: in scoring opportunities allowed per game, Oklahoma number seven and
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: five factors rank Bama's number nineteen. So Oklahoma has certainly
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: been playing overall better. The only issue with them is,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: of course, penalties, turnovers, and their offense.
• 25:39
  Speaker 6: Everything else is great.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Bama has special teams problems, they can't run the football.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: The other stuff is good, though, I'm curious. Bama three
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: and four against the spread and bowls since twenty twenty,
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma three and two, and Oklahoma is the team that
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: has had Alabama's number four years. I mean, just going
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: back as long as I can remember. BAMA got one
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: win over Oklahoma in a playoff game that was in
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Miami when.
• 26:10
  Speaker 6: Tua was the quarterback, and that's been about it. I
• 26:14
  Speaker 6: look at this.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: You know, Alabama favored by one and a half at
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: some books. They are a dog of one and a
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: half at some books, so it's kind of all over
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the place. The total is forty and a half and
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: it is just sitting there. The total was forty four
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: for the last game, twenty three to twenty one, but
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: that went under the projected total the line, if you will,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: and it went.
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: Under quite a bit. I believe the I believe it
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: was forty eight, forty eight and a half something like that.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: So I look at this. I think Alabama's going to
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: be healthy. I think the turnovers are not going to
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: be quite the same as.
• 26:48
  Speaker 6: They were last time.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: And I still trust Kaylen to boor in big time situations.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: He seems to know what he's doing. And if he's
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: got a healthy football team, then I think that they
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: will be able to They'll still be able to move
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the football against this Oklahoma defense. I think Alabama needed
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: to buy in the worst kind of way. I think
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: they'll be able to get it done. So I will
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: take Alabama at the best number I can get right
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: now is Bama plus one and a half. I don't
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: think it matters because I think they win the game outright,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: and odds are probably gonna win by more than one
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: and a half. So whether it's Bama minus one and
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: a half or Bama plus one and a half, I'll
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: take Alabama to win this game in Norman, Saturday, December twentieth,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: and we have got a monster matchup in the first round,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: this one of course on ABC as well eleven am
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: Central time, God's time zone. Miami is headed to College
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: Station to take on Texas A and M.
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: This is your ten to seven matchup.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: So the winner of this, of course goes on to
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: face Ohio State next week or the whatever New Year's
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Eve whenever that is. A and M is a three
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite total of fifty one and
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: a half on this and my projected stat spread has
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: A and M by two point twenty one. My power
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: rating has A and M by four. My last four
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: weeks has an M minus almost nine points. Found that
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: very interesting, very very interesting. Let's take a look over
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: all of these two teams. Miami oh to three against
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: the spread since twenty twenty in bowl games. A and
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: M is one and two against the spread, so they
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: are minus one point seven. Neither team really performs well
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: when it comes to Bowl games.
• 28:29
  Speaker 6: Five factors rank.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Miami is number three, A and M is number ten.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: This one is interesting to say the least interesting, to
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: say the least. A and M's offense not great throwing
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: the football, but they can be insanely explosive. Miami's defense
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: really really good at defending explosive passes number twenty one
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: in passing explosiveness allowed an m is number eighteen. Have
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: a great allowed A and M's offense number five, Miami
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: number nine. So Rubin Bain and company gonna try and
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: get after the quarterback a little bit. Can they make
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Marcel Read uncomfortable? That's what we're trying to figure out.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't put a lot of faith in that because
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: I do like Texas A and M's offensive line. However,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Miami against the run number nine and ppa per rush
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: number ten in yards allowed per rush, A and M
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: number forty three and number twenty eight in those and
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: you saw that they were not able to get it
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: done against Texas. And I think that Miami is closer
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: to Texas than they are some of the other teams
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: that A and M has played thus far this year
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: special teams that's in Miami's favor. They are number twelve
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: and special teams efficiency per sp plus Texas.
• 29:40
  Speaker 6: A and M is number eighty one.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: When you look at some of the other intangibles penalties
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: per game both through outside the top one twenty, Miami
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: is number twelve and turnover margins, so they don't turn
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: it over a ton, although that would be the story
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: of their season. Carson Beck going on the road does
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: not exactly strike fear in anybody, and they are number
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: seventy six and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. The issue
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: is that A and M is number one thirty one
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: and interceptions gained per pass attempt defended, so they're pretty
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: good against the pass number twenty n PPA allowed per pass.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: They are number thirty three in QBR allowed, but Miami
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: number nine in QBR and number.
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: Six and PPA per pass.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I think Miami's going to be able to throw the
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: football on them a little bit because you don't really
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: have to worry about A and M getting takeaways, right
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: they're number one to twenty and takeaways per game number
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: eighty and giveaways per game, so that's certainly not great
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: when you think about it. These two teams are both
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: inside the top ten as far as overall talent ranks,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: so this is a monster matchup. Miami running the football
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: not exactly anything that you're going to write home about,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: but they did have a running back come on late
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: that kind of changed things up to the number twenty
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: eight and rushing success rate in defense is number eleven.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: Offensive line yards A and M is number seventeen in
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards allowed, Miami number thirty five. In offensive
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: line yards Miami number seventeen. And stuff rate A and
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: M number twenty one and stuff rate, I mean it's
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: pretty equal. This is a pretty equal ballgame. Average field
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: position on both sides. Both are pretty good at this,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: you know, scoring opportunities Miami a number fourteen, and points
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity A and M is number one oh five.
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: But A and M is also number ten in scoring
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: opportunities allowed per game. Miami's number eleven. There So Miami,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I think we'll be able to drive more. Well, they'll
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: be able to drive some. I think that Miami's better
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: at finishing drives. A and M number twenty six. Points
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity on offense, Miami's defense is number eight,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: and you're looking at number ten and number three. As
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: far as five factors are concerned, this Miami is not
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: great on the road by any stretch, but they have
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: been better this year. And I have to, of course,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: you look at strength of schedule, Miami number forty five.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: A and M is number sixteen. How A and M
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: is number sixteen blows my mind. I just I don't
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: have a lot of respect for what they did as
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: far as the schedule is concerned, because everything seemed to
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: come up roses for them in certain situations, and they
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: didn't exactly play a murderer's row of sec teams. They
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: caught Notre Dame, and my goodness, I mean, if that
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: extra point goes through, I mean, what are we looking
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: at here? This is a very difficult one, but I
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: think the line movement is headed in the right direction.
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: A and M was.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Favored by five and a half. It open, it's down
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. I think this is a
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: field goal game. I think Miami is probably the better
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: overall team, although they have not played the strength of
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: schedule to show it. Both of these teams beat Notre
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Dame earlier this year, Miami kind of dominated him for
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: the most part. A and M had to come back
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: in in South Bend to do it. It was back
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: to back weeks, and it was what twelve weeks ago,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: thirteen weeks ago, So we got to trust what we've
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: seen from these two teams recently, and A and M
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: the toughest team that they faced this.
• 33:38
  Speaker 6: Year was really Texas.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Outside of the Notre Dame game, but that was way
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: way way back. I think Miami is going to put
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: up a fight here. I don't expect a bunch of turnovers.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: They do have the more experienced quarterback, the better passer,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: and while College Station is certainly going to be ramped
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: up for this, I think it does Miami some favors
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: that this game is going to be at eleven am
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Central as opposed.
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: To a night game.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Well that said, yeah, I'll take Miami plus the three
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think they can hang in this game.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: I think they can win this game. It's a coin flip.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: If I'm getting more than a field goal, I will
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• 36:05
  Speaker 1: We have talked a lot of SEC and the College
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Football Playoff, so we might as well keep that train
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: rolling with an old school SEC matchup. Ole Miss hosting
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: TWU Lane This one, of course, Saturday, December twentieth, This
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: one at two thirty pm Central Time on ABC. Excuse me, TNT,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: that's right, they changed this thing up. It's TNT, HBO
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Max and True TV maybe something along those lines. Anyway,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: they don't want to compete. The ESPN does not want
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: to compete with the NFL when it comes to this, so.
• 36:37
  Speaker 6: I totally get it.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: But this would not be competing with the NFL anyway,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: if we're just being honest. We saw this game earlier
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: this year ole Miss. I know at one point it
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: was thirty eight to three. I don't know if that's
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: what it finished. It might have been thirty eight to ten.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: It might have been forty five to ten. I don't know,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: but I remember specifically watching this game. It was the
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: same day that at I watched Oklahoma and Auburn and
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: ole Miss beat two Lane like a drum. Now we
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: can't escape the fact that Lane Kiffin is not going
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: to be on the sideline for ole Miss. They do
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: seem pretty ramped up and pretty excited that Pete Golding
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: is going to be their full time head coach. John
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Summral the head coach for two Lane. Whenever he loses
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: a game that is going to be his last one
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: in New Orleans, he will be headed off to Florida.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Will Hall is going to be the new head coach,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: but John Somerral will still be acting as head coach
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: for the playoff run.
• 37:35
  Speaker 6: However long that is.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is favored by seventeen and a half now
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: total fifty six and a half on this one. My
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread has almost by sixteen point twenty five.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: My power rating has almossed by a little under fourteen.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks would actually have two lane favored
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: by like ten points, which is bananas. When you look
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: at overall talent rank, I've got ole Miss by twenty
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: one two lane by or excuse me, oh Miss number
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: twenty one in overall talent rank per on three two
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: lane number sixty nine, both of these teams inside the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: top fifteen. As far as special teams are concerned. Let's
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: look at the two lane defense, which is not great.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Their number sixty three in PBA allowed per drive on defense,
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: but their number eighty seven and rushing success rate allowed
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: number one oh eight in passing success rate allowed this
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: ole Miss offense. Who is getting back Basically everybody that's
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: on the offensive staff other than the head coach Lane
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: kiffn He allowed everybody to go back, and ole Miss
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: allowed everybody to come back for it. So Charlie Wise
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Junior is going to be calling plays. He is the
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, was the offensive coordinator as well, along with
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: all of the other position groups. So like their offensive
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: staff is intact, the defensive staff, of course is intact.
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: With Pete Golding and company.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: They should be perfectly fine in a game like this
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: because they are going to physically I don't want to
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: have a I don't want to say a man handle,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: but there's just a significant advantage when it comes to
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: ole Missus roster compared to two lanes roster.
• 39:13
  Speaker 6: Two lane is pretty good on the line of scrimmage.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: But there are number seventy two on the offensive line
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: against ole Missus defense, that's number twe excuse me, defensive
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: line that's number twenty eight. On the other side, the
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: two lane offensive line is that right, Sorry, sorry, two
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: lane offensive line is number seventy two. The two lane
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: defensive line is number twenty four. So on defense, two
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: lane can potentially compete with ole Miss.
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: I'm not expecting it though.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss number eleven in points per scoring opportunity, two
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: lanes defense number fifty nine, ole Miss number three in
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities per game, two lane number ninety three in
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities allowed per game. On the other side, two
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: lane number forty six in points per scoring opportunity, ole
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Miss's defense number sixteen, and two lane number forty five
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: in scoring opportunities per game. That's when you get a
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: first down inside of the opponent forty ole Miss number
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: forty one. I'm just not seeing a ton of opportunities
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: for two lane. Two lane also number seventy four in
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: defensive red zone touchdown rate, number one hundred in offensive
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. I think ole Miss is gonna
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: score a lot. I don't think Tulane is at all.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Now we have not seen ole Miss without their head coach,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: but we do know that this is a playoff game.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: We do know that ole Miss has it at home.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: It is the biggest game that will happen in the
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: state of Mississippi. Maybe ever, I think it's huge, absolutely huge.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Five factors plus talent has ole Miss at number twenty one,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: has two lane at number fifty. Both of them are
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good as far as the first half is concerned.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: But tu lane is number eighty four and second half
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: point margin ole Miss is number fifteen. I think this
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: could get lopsided at two lane one in three against
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: the spread in bowl games. So when it comes to bowls,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: I mean we saw we saw the same thing here
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: when Tulane played against Florida last year. I thought they
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: would hang around in that game even without Darien Mensa.
• 41:26
  Speaker 6: I was wrong. I was incorrect. They got whipped at
• 41:31
  Speaker 6: the line of scrimmage.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I think you're probably going to see a lot of
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the exact same thing here. I just don't believe that
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Tulane has the guys to hang in here. So this
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: thing did jump over seventeen. So it's ole Miss minus
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. I think you're probably gonna see
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: ole Miss by at least three touchdowns, if not more.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: So I'm going against my numbers here. I think that
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: ole Miss is going to whip them, and I will
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: take the Rebels minus seventeen and a half one more time.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: If you have not all ready subscribe to the channel,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: that's right.
• 42:02
  Speaker 6: I gotta do is hit the subscribe button. It's free.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: You help me out tremendously when you do that, and
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: make sure and hit that like button, and of course
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: jump in the comments. Let me know your picks on
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: these games. I want to know what you think is
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: gonna happen as well, not just me spouting off my
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: opinion over here. I want to know was ou what
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: are you thinking? So go ahead and knock.
• 42:21
  Speaker 6: That out for me.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: The last CFP first round game gives us number twelve
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: against number five James Madison going.
• 42:28
  Speaker 6: All the way across the country to Eugene.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: This one six thirty pm Central Time on TNT, and
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Oregon is a twenty one and a half point favorite
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: at home with a total of fifty and a half,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: the Ducks taking on the James Madison Dukes.
• 42:44
  Speaker 6: That's right.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: We had two G five teams make it into the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: playoff this year, thanks ACC And it's not often that
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: you see a playoff game where you have a three
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: touchdown spread. Probably not going to see that in the NFL.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Very rarely are you going to see it in college
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: football as well, but that's.
• 43:09
  Speaker 6: Where we are.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: If you just look at ross stats, it looks like
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: a pretty good matchup.
• 43:15
  Speaker 6: Oregon number one in.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: The country in PPA margin, James Madison is number nine,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: James Madison number thirty five in offensive success rate. Oregon's
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: defense is number fourteen, Oregon's offense number six in offensive
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: success rate, James Madison's defense number one. So James Madison
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: has played incredibly.
• 43:34
  Speaker 6: Well this year.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: The issue is that Oregon is number nineteen in current
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule over at ESPN, James Madison is number
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: one twenty three. I don't know if we will ever
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: see a playoff team with a strength to schedule inside
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: the one twenties again, but this was an odd year,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: is what it is. When it comes to bowls, James
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Madison has only been in two of them. They are
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: one and one against the spread in those, Oregon one
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: and four against the spread in bowl games in postseason games.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: So I mean, this number is a little crazy for
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: a college football playoff game. But when you look at
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the overall talent rank, Oregon is number seven, James Madison
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: number one hundred Oregon. The one that's right here for
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: them was against Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl and they
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: beat Liberty thirty eight to six, and it was never
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: even a ballgame. And that was a good Liberty team
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: that was undefeated, that had, you know, really done a
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: good job against everybody that they played. Their numbers all
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: looked like this for James Madison. The issue that you
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: run into is Oregon is number three as far as
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: the offensive line position group is concerned, James Madison number
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: fifty nine.
• 44:50
  Speaker 6: On defense.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: On the other side, James Madison's offensive line number ninety two,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Oregon's defensive line number fifty two, and they've actually gotten
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: significantly better throughout the year. They're number five as far
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: as linebacker unit, number four in opponent back seven Oregon
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: number seventy one as far as running back is concerned,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: but they've gotten better there. They're number twenty five and
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: skill players. James Madison's defense number fifty three, number sixty
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: two as far as their running backs are concerned. I mean,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: it's it's a mismatch. It is a complete and total mismatch,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: and there's no real way to quantify exactly how much.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: How about this, when you weigh the talent five factors rank,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: James Madison is number eight and Oregon is number nine.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: If you just look at raw five factors. If you
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: do five factors plus talent and that includes talent being
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: weighted at thirty percent, Oregon is number three. James Madison
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: is number sixty five. I mean, it's it's a night
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: and day difference as far as the talent between these
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: two teams. Oregon's defense is going to be able to
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: shut down everything that James Madison wants to do. On offense,
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: James Madison runs the ball sixty percent of the time.
• 46:05
  Speaker 6: How do you do that?
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: If your offensive line group is number ninety two and
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: the Oregon defensive line is fifty two, the linebackers are
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: number five, How explain it? To me, I don't know
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: that James Madison is going to get a whole lot
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: of push at all unless Oregon is already up by
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: four touchdowns. So as far as points per scoring drive,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: all that who can finish drives. Oregon number twenty five
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity, James Madison's defense number thirty seven.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: On the other side, James Madison number fifty one in
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity on offense, Oregon's defense number seventy six.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: Both of them have plenty of opportunities, though because Oregon, uh,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: well excuse me, Oregon doesn't have a ton of opportunities
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: because they don't give up many drives where the opponent
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: gets a first down inside the forty yard line. Oregon
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: is number on four in scoring opportunities per game. James
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: Madison is number five. You look at turnover margin, Oregon
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: is number eighteen. James Madison is number seventy seven. You
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: look at penaltyes per game, Oregon is number thirty three.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: James Madison outside the top one hundred special teams, Oregon
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: is number thirty seven. James Madison is number eighty nine.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: So even the intangibles, the things that James Madison would
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: need to go right. The odds are not exactly in
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: their favor that they do. This thing's out to twenty
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: one and a half. It was twenty one when.
• 47:35
  Speaker 6: I did the sheet the other night.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: My projected stats spread has Oregon by eighteen. My power
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: rating has Orgon by seventeen. My last four weeks has
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Orgon by just one point. I still think talent is
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: the difference here. Oregon is so much better, and they're
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: at home, and by god, they got beat like a
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: in the first round last year, not the first round,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: the quarterfinals, right, Ohio State waxed them. This is a
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: bit of a rebirth, if you will. Oregon is the
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: significantly better team. Twenty one and a half feels like
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: a lot, especially for a James Madison team. But I
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: saw James Madison kind of get handled by Louisville, and
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I think Oregon's got a whole lot more weapons and
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: a lot bigger dudes. I'll take Oregon. Give me the
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: Ducks minus twenty one and a half. All right, let's
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: recap what we got for this week. Army is going
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: to Navy. I'm gonna take Navy minus six and a half.
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: The LA Bowl on Saturday Night, I'll take Washington minus
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: nine and a half, the IS four S Salute, the
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Veterans Bowl. I'm gonna take Jacksonville State plus three and
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: a half against Troy, and then we get to the
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: College Football Playoff, I'm taking Bama plus one and a half,
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: Miami plus three and a half, Ole miss minus seventeen
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: and a half, Oregon minus twenty one and a half.
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: Next week, we have got a slew of games that
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be going over, and it's a bunch of
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: bowl games, so I hope that you guys are ready
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: for that. We'll have the Cure Bowl, the sixty eight
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Ventures Bowl, the Xbox Bowl, the Myrtle Beach Bowl, the
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: Union Home Mortgage gas Parilla Bowl, the Idaho Bowl or
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: Idaho Potato Bowl, excuse me, the boke Over Tone Bowl.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I mean it's we're gonna be going over a lot
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: of stuff, a lot of stuff, So I hope that
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: you're ready. Subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: because there will be audio only versions of this show
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: going out. Some stuff I'm gonna be talking about lines
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: closer to the games. I'll be talking about things that
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: are happening as far as the coaching caresel, et cetera.
• 49:40
  Speaker 6: So make sure that you are subscribed over there, leave.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: A nice five star review, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, whatever it
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: might be that would certainly help me out. And of course,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: if you like the sheets, support the show, buy me
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: a coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
• 49:55
  Speaker 6: With that said, it's time to get out of here.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: You guys are fantastic. I can't thank you enough. You
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: make every season fantastic. I really enjoy doing this, As
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: you guys know, I just I love college football. I
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: know it's a weird sport right now, but by God,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: there's nothing better than a fall Saturday, and we have
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: got quite a few of those left. So with that said,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: take care of yourself, take care of each other. God
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets cash
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: leave a review or comment, follow at Gary wclong x,
• 50:34
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• 50:37
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  Speaker 4: He might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
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  Speaker 2: Okay, I'll give it a go if he ever takes
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