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NFL Week 3 - Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff. What's up, everyone? Tyler
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Tamblyn here, a.k.a. ToeTag and Tambo. Back for another edition
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: of Leverage Lane NFL Edition here on the Ship It
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Nation YouTube station. Got my guy Alex Blickle here with me,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: as always. And we're going to be breaking down all
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: things for DFS Week 3 NFL Slate. We've got roster construction.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about the chalk, the common build, how it
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: all goes together, how we can leverage that. And then,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: of course, at the end, we'll have both of our
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Leverage Lanes. I think some really good ones this week.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: We usually start off with a topic, and we've got
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: one for this week, but before... We do that. Alex,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I'll bring you in. My friend, how are you doing?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Heading into week three. Doing very well. Very, very excited
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: for the show, as you kind of teased there.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I think some really cool stuff kind of going on
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: over on Blick Analytics. And one of those things is
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: going to turn into a leverage lane that I think
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: is one of my favorite leverage lanes that I've ever
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: done here on this show, which is saying something.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: There have been some good ones. And hopefully we can
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: make up for.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: A week last week where I just got bit over
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: and over and over again by the injury bug, Jane
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: and Daniels, Saquon Barkley, David and Joku. It was relentless.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: And I'm very hopeful that that luck is in the past.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: And now I can get some, you know, injury free
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: lineups through on Sunday.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah. They usually say it can't get any worse. And
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I know like to the showdown side of things too.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I was like, Oh, Jackson dart. Nope. He's out early.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: And then it's like, someone's like, well, I should have
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: played a neighbors instead of dart in my line. I
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: was like, no, he's going out. He did come back
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: for a minute, but I'm just saying, it was like,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: it was just kept going with these injuries.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: And it was DJ more on Thursday. Like it was
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: literally the entire week, every slate. And, and there was even,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: there was a baseball slate too.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Where I was like, well, okay, well at least
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: it's baseball. So I'm not going to have any injuries.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: First guy gets to the plate, grounds out to second base,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: and pulls his hamstring running to first.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Was that Acuna Jr.? Uh, I can't honestly, I don't
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: even remember who it was. It was the Atlanta game.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Cause it was a day. Look, I'm only in the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: baseball streets right now when it's not NFL street days.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: And it was definitely one of those days. And I
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: think you're right. You're right.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: And it wasn't, it wasn't even, um, it wasn't even
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: grounded to first. I think he like fouled it off
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: his leg and just had to leave the game or something.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: So someone else finished that bat. So yeah, it was,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: it was insane. Just over and over and over again. Hopefully,
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: as we said, uh, that that's in the past.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, lots of good people out here in the chat.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: We appreciate all of you, but happy to have you
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: back here live with us. But yeah, lots of good
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: stuff on the go for this week. And the topic
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: that we're going to start with for this week with
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: you guys is one that we've talked about forever. It's
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: near and dear to my heart. I always say there's
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: two sayings. We each have one. Mine is always... is always,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: it's not who you play, it's how you play them.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: And then Alex always talks about, it's not just who
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: you play, it's also who you don't play. And then
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: when you can put those things together, he's talked a
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: lot about combinatorial ownership and people being paired together, conditional ownerships,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: things like that. So I'm going to kick it over
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: to you first. Obviously, Alex, you've been working on a
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: ton of fun stuff when it comes to that and
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: more on that later on when we get to our
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: leverage lanes guys. But, um, you know, last week as
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: a prime example, we saw, Oh man, I can't believe it.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I was on Dak. I was on lamb. I was
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: on all this stuff, but they got there and I
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: didn't have it. Well, you didn't have Ferguson. You didn't
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: have a double tight end. You didn't have JSN with
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: CD lamb, which was what kind of ended up in
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of places. So, um, give us your thoughts
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: here on this stuff and how you want to start
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: this off today to break it down. Yeah, I think,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: where I'll take this.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Cause I don't want to jump right to the leverage
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: lane is I'm going to talk through the, the Washington
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: and Dallas stack, because I think that had a really
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: good balance of like, it's not just who you, it's
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: not just who you play.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: It's how you play them. And it's not just who
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: you play. It's who you don't play.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Because if you played that game, either in a Dak lamb,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: Ferguson digs way, or a Jane and Daniels McLaurin, um,
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: McLaurin digs and then lamb way, like both of those
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: would have been really, really good.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Had Jane and Daniel's not gotten hurt.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: And I think the Jane and Daniel side was clearly
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: going to be the better side simply because he was
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: going to run for over a hundred yards and it
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: looked like he was going to kind of tear them
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: up through the air. So, uh, that was an enormous bummer. Uh,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: you know, McLaurin almost had a long touchdown too, before
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: the injury even happened. So like the run out there
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: was so clear and so obvious, uh, once the game
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: started and A couple key points there. I think the
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: reason why I think it's also who you don't play
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: aspect of that was really strong is if you played
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: that stack, there really wasn't another game that felt super threatening.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: That like, hey, if this game hits, if my Dallas-Washington
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: game hits, regardless of how I stacked it, there's no
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: other game that I'm worried is going to outproduce it.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: There were some others that could maybe get close or
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: produce a single stack they could get close. But in
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: terms of the upside of both sides of the stack
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: and the correlation of the stack, there wasn't anything that
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: I was really afraid of. And so I thought that
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: was a really nice argument for playing it. Cause like,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: for example, if you instead played, you know, a San
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Francisco stack, or you tried to go cheap with like
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: a jet stack or, you know, whatever it was, right.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: And you got it right. You would still then have
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: to hold your breath and hope that that Dallas Washington
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: game didn't go off in the afternoon. And it was
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: on its way to really, really, really going off. I mean,
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: CD lamb still was an absolute slate breaker and he
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: wasn't pushed at all in the second half the way
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: he would have been if Jaden Daniels was in. So
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: like that, that sack had enormous upside. And then in
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: terms of it's like, it's not just who you play,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: it's how you play them. There were also some unique
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: combinations that you could get to within that game. As
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: you mentioned, whether it's a double stack in Washington, when
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: the only double sacks from that game were really coming
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: more from the Dallas side or skipping a chalky Pickens
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: to go to a contrarian Ferguson and then try and
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: use Ferguson to leverage some of the, uh, the cheap
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: tight end chalk, uh, you know, there were a lot
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: of really kind of cool options to both play that
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: chalk stack in a contrarian way, but then also recognize
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: the fact that like one of the reasons why it's
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: so okay to lean into a chalky game like that.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: And I remember last year, um, you made your leverage lane,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: like over stacking, uh, the Rams Colts game pretty early
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: in the season when I was trying to pivot off
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: of it. And of course, like the game just hit
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: in a huge way and, and you took down everything
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: that day. And, It just reminded me that sometimes playing
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: the clear and obvious game is a good strategy. It
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: wasn't quite as clear and obvious as Detroit-New Orleans from
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: week one in the sense that it didn't have the ownership,
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: but I actually felt like it was even more of
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: a clear and obvious game in terms of this is
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: the game that if one separates from the rest, it's
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: most likely this one. Because in week one, there were
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: other games that I really liked, like that Cincinnati-Tampa Bay
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: game that we just didn't have last week. It was
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: like this one was kind of so far above the
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: rest in my mind.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah. A couple of things stood out there too, just
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: to add on one would be like, that's also the
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: benefit of the, and I know a lot of shipping
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: nation members. I know a lot of people I'm sure
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: in your discord are talking about. You've actually got stuff
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: now up as well for these alternate slates in some
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: cases is that that's sometimes the power of the early
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: only slate. It's like, look, I don't know if the
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Dallas Washington game is going to go off completely, but
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I think it really could. And I like it already
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: for that much. I'm going to have a ton of
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: exposure on the main slate to it because of that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: If it fails me though, man, I got a couple
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: of lineups that I really like that are, you know,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: eight out of nine guys are in the morning and
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I can easily convert that. It's one play that I
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: got to move around. It's fine. It's the most fantasy
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: points wins a slate. So on a classic slate, there's
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: all the time you see someone will hit the, you know,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: at the very top of the board, you'll see them
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: because it's over when the afternoon hits and they have
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the best lineup after the morning and they're really up.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: They're up 40 points or something, but now we call
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: it the anti-sweat. Right now, the anti-sweat begins. It's like,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: all right, but now I got to fade the entire
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Dallas Washington game. That was last week as the example. Right.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So you see that quite a bit. But that's the
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: power of those other slates. The other thing, like you said,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: is just like the one where there's a game stack.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And look, we're on here. We're talking a lot of
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: single entry. And I appreciate it because you gave the
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: credit the last year. Like it was an example where
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: I was like, I'm over stacking it and I'll just
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: look to get different. And you were like, I'm just
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: going to move away from it. when you're playing single entry,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: you do have to decide that it's not, there is
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: no two options. Now you don't always have to play
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: single entry. Alex has done a good job of this
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: and even adapting in his own game and telling you
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: guys along his journey, like I might play three lineups
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: this week as a single entry where I'm going to
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: cover different angles within that, that concept. Or now he's
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: saying as many $ 70 qualifier qualifier, sorry, as there is,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I might adapt my stuff for that because I want
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: to have more shots of this. And that's my goals.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: And so these things we always talk about from just
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: a process perspective. But it's like, if you really think
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: it's the game, you don't always have to move away.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: And that's what I think is going to be so cool.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I've obviously already get the privilege and, you know, very
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: lovely setup where I get to see Alex's stuff beforehand
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: and he shows me sort of what he's working on,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: what's going on. But you guys are going to love
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: the leverage lane at the end because of this. And
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: it's literally how you can play I'll just use the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: popular game as the example. It's really for anything, but
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: for the popular game, it's the best way to find
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: how you could play it differently. And in a way
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: others are not. And it brings in not just the
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: game at hand, but also positions and position scarcity and
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: roster construction, how people are actually composing their lineup and
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: putting it together to see some different examples there. So
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: I'm excited to, for that later on. We'll get to
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the Chalky build here in a second. Before I do that,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: just want to remind everyone, if you go over to shibbitnation.com,
• 9:51
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• 9:53
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• 9:58
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• 10:01
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• 10:07
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• 10:11
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• 10:29
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  Speaker 1: dashboard there. We use this on takedown, breakdown a ton.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Check out the latest news, backtest your projections, do slate reviews,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: see what everybody's up to. Check out the player profiles
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: to see how people played. I used this example yesterday, Alex,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: with somebody just to go through it with them. But
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: if you are in anything else in the world, like
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: if you're a pro golfer, if you want to get
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: golf lessons... it'd be nice to know like how Scotty
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Scheffler played and be able to see a bunch of
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: his shots in practice. If you're a professional poker player,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: it'd be nice to know what every hand people played
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and how they played it and be able to learn
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: as much as possible. There's like nothing else in the
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: world unless you're paying the highest fees possible to be
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: able to sit down with some of the pros and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: find out exactly how they play and what they do
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: in chess, poker, golf, cooking. I don't care what it is.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: You're not getting in the kitchen with the top chefs
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: unless you're paying to be there to find out how
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: they do this stuff. But in DFS, you actually can
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: go back and see exactly how somebody played and what
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: their entire portfolio was and what their exposures were. And,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: you know, not just the winning lineup, but the optimals. But,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: you know, looking at the winning lineup, it's like, that's
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: just the winning lineup. What about what the best players
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: did with their portfolio that gave them the chance to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: get there and the consistency and all that. So on DFSOS.com,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: you can use code SHIPIT, get half price over there.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: But when you go to a slate review, And you say, okay,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: for Thursday night, I want to see the showdown slate
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: where Knowlesman, by the way, won the outright prize with
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a 49.5K lineup. That's just crazy to see. Sturdivant obviously
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: helped stand that thing up. But having, you know, it
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: was Bijan in the captain with Brian Robinson and Drake
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: London in the flex. And then you just had the
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: stack of Love, Golden, Sturdivant in there to round it out.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: And it ended up shipping 500,000. But you can actually
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: go in and say, okay, That's the winning lineup. But
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: how did he play his 150 lineups? He had 24
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: unique players. Here's where the ownership was and what his
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: exposures were. There's the Delta. What did the portfolio of
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: lineups look like outside of that? So I'm not going
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: to do it all here, but you guys can do that.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Go to ShipItNation.com. Check it out. Go to DFSOS.com. Use
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: code SHIPIT. Where do you want to start today on
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: the chalky build? Because I think this week is a
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: little bit different from that perspective. But give me your
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: thoughts here as we get into the next segment. Yeah.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: First and foremost, like there definitely isn't a clear game
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: stack this week that people are going to. I would
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: also say, well, actually on that note, like I only
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: have one quarterback, even at 10% single entry ownership, it's
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck. And I don't necessarily think that people are
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: like really stacking that whole game so much as they
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: just like his price tag. And you know, you can
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: go to a cheap Bay layer, you can go to
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: a cheap Juwan or you can use a lobby. So
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: there are, there are ways people are going to play
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: the game, but like it's, it's nowhere near you know,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: new Orleans, Detroit from week one or anything like that.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: The second unique thing is we don't have the 50%
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: expensive running back this week. Like I do think Gibbs
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: is going to be pretty popular, but I only have
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: them at 30% in a, in high stakes.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: And, and then you.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Have a number of other popular running backs. Like I
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: think Ken Walker is going to be around the 30% number.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Uh, you have some quote.
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: Unquote cheaper guys who are all the way up at
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: like 57, 59, 61 in Warren Hubbard, Aaron Jones that
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: have a chance to be popular. It's just kind of
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: an odd slate in that at the moment, I think
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: the player that I have at the highest single entry
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: ownership is actually the Tennessee Titans $ 2, 400 defense. So very
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: odd slate in that regard, but it lets us talk
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: through some fun stuff as a result.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. That's what's interesting about this week. You know,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: the week one, totally different scenario. Obviously, everybody knows the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: price has been out for a month. You get mega
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: chalk going into that week across all positions. Week two,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: you see, like you said, there's a game stack or
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: something that people are getting to. But even then it
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: was like, oh, well. I'm kind of in on this guy.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: And again, like Jaden stacks, not many people were flipping
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: it as we thought. And if they were, it was
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: only to a single stack with the DAC stack. It
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: was kind of like Pickens lamb and then pick someone
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: from the other side. Sure. But it wasn't that crazy
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: besides some of the other positions like a Bijan last
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: week at running back definitely stood out. Now I think
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: you could make a case here. I don't know, maybe
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: just me, but it feels like, I think Kenneth Walker
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: is going to be the guy that I would still
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: feel very comfortable plugging in. A lot of people are interested.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: You can't, you know, Walker rhymes with Chalker, Kenneth Chalker,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: the third, we definitely could see him pick up steam,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: even in the higher stakes, single entry stuff. But there
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: is things that are going on like with Dowdle and, um,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: injury and with, um, Chuba in his spot. Like there
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: is some of the cheaper guys there too. I also
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: wonder this, the fun stuff for me is like finding
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: this out. Does the extremely nice price of $ 6, 900 and
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I call it best by pricing. It's like not quite whatever,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: like this to me is going to steam up a
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: lot more on James Cook. I, at least I think,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: because I thought at first it might be Kincaid who
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: people go to, and he's getting some but the problem
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: is when you have like schultz laporta kelsey andrews mcbride
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: all these other dudes well maybe it's not going to
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: be him i do think people are you know saying
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: hey if i can't get to josh allen or figure
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: him out maybe it's james cook and i think that
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: would actually surprisingly enough for me i think that cuts
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: more into jameer gibbs and cmc than it does the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: guy that's just 500 bucks more and kenneth walker i
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: think we could actually see more of something like this
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: and then pick your poison. And that's why I think
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: you're going to see Gibbs stay in check. Plus there's
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the Bijan effect, not the Bijan effect from Thursday night football,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: where he smashed after hurting everybody's feelings the week before
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: on classic slate, but the Bijan effect from last week
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: in classic, where it's like people got overconfident. What'd we say?
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Week one, people are going to get very overconfident in
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: these spots. And then what ended up happening? It just
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: wasn't a good week for Bijan. It completely flipped and
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: you wanted Hubbard and the Carolina D and Instead on
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: the other side. Yeah. Real quick.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Like, I think that that's something we, we did very
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: well last week was talk through what people were, were
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: overconfident about, uh, both, you know, uh, like on a
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: team level where the Carolina run defense, isn't going to
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: be anywhere near as bad as they looked like they
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: were against Chicago. They clearly showed that last week as
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: part of why Bijan failed. And then the other aspect
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: was that like, people were just going to be a
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: little bit overconfident in running backs as a whole, because
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: like all of this late breaking, uh, performances in week
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: one were running backs. Well, they were all wide receivers
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: last week and running backs as a whole were like really,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: really underwhelming. And so I thought we did a nice
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: job talking through that. Obviously there were some things we missed,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: like Mike Evans was not anywhere near as good as
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: we wanted him to be. And another injury, by the way. Yeah.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: And not only was it another injury, but he got hurt,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: like hurtling a defender at like the three. And if
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: he hadn't tweaked his hip while hurtling the guy, he
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: probably would have the presence of mind to reach out
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: across the goal line and score the touchdown.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: It was, it was unfortunate for sure.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: But, but yeah, so like, I, I obviously, there are
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: always going to be things that we, we get wrong,
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: but I really liked the way we talked through those
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: like overconfident parts and, and definitely have some instances this
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: week that I think people are overconfident into.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm just trying to see like, just randomly here,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: like what this kind of plays out like, and this
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: probably is close to, Accurate again. I don't, I don't
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: think there's like a clear chalk build, but there's some
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: clear chalk pieces that I feel confident in. And this
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: is just the most random example I could give. That's
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: like somewhat hovering in those areas. Um, Alex, like if
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: you've got shock to all of a, You got Cook, Walker,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: and I put Warren in because Warren at 5,700 is popping.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: The Sims are also pushing him, which is important to
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: note because we always think, like, what is the industry
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: pushing and what's getting pushed by the industry and the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: projections and where is that leaving people? So I think
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: that's important. And then you've got– I just put Bateman. Now,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: we did get information this morning that Zay Flowers could
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: still play. It'll likely be on a pitch count if active,
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: but– Bateman did enough last week and look, the price
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: went up, but I don't think it went up enough
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: for what some people are thinking, but there's, there's room
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: to move. Like, like how much is, um, they lay
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: real quick. I mean, that's, that's the other thing about
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: this slate, right?
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Is that there's, there's still, I mean, for week three,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: especially like this is early in the season.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: We already have like.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: A week 10 kind of list of game time decision
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: guys or guys that maybe hopefully we learn about a
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: little bit more this afternoon and, and can make those
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: changes for tonight.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: But, Right.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: There are probably like six to eight scenarios still that
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: we need information on because whatever information we get is
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: going to significantly change the slate. And obviously, most projections
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: in the industry are going to project things one way.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Already this week, we're like, I think most of us
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: are probably projecting the Z flag. sits. But now as
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: of this morning, it's like, okay, well maybe he is
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: going to play and maybe it's going to be a
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: pitch count. So now we're going to figure out, okay,
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: if he is playing, like what's the verbiage that they're using?
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: Are they saying, okay, he's, he's good, but they're going
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: to be careful with him. And if he, if he,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: you know, it doesn't look right, then maybe they'll let
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: him rest a little bit. Or is it like very strict? hey,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: we're only going to play you in these scenarios where
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: you don't need to go out in a full sprint
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: and we can just use your route running in short
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: yardage or in the red zone, things like that. We
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: have no idea, but point being, it's really hard to...
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: If you're building lineups this morning and you think, oh,
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: this is what I'm playing tomorrow, I think it's an
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: important note to say you shouldn't get too attached to
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: anything yet because chances are something is going to change
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: in a way that dramatically affects the slate and If
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: you're not thinking through how that should affect your process
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: and your lineups, I think you're making a mistake, which
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean that no lineup that you build now can
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: be the lineup that you play, but you should at
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: least go through the process of thinking through, okay, what
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: changed since I built this lineup, and do I actually
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: want to make any changes here, or does this lineup
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: still hold up as something that's really good and worth playing?
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: That's obviously fine, but try not to get too attached
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: because then it's really hard to make the adjustments you
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: need to make.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I will say, too, this is a good
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: call-out last week. So wide receiver in the flex was
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: indeed the leverage lane. There was a bunch of different
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: lineups at the top across different tournaments, but there was
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: no three running back lineups. I can assure you of that.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: That was the main point that Alex was bringing up
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: last week. So even if it ended up being in
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: some places... you know, Kittle with Schultz versus other places.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: It was like JSN getting in there and just breaking
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: the slate completely on top of Lamb and Chase and
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: those guys just flipping the build that way. But it
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: was just so much conviction in three running backs that nobody,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: not as many people had these builds and those that
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: did really gave themselves an opportunity to get to the top. Ferguson, Schultz, Kittle, Schultz,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of different versions of that. And
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: then obviously the JSN Chase stuff. and Lamb forcing it.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: So like there was a way to afford that if
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: you thought about it. So that's pretty interesting as well.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I want to ask you as a guy who builds
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: projections over there on your own, are you baking the
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: possible field conditions with the bumpy Brazil field conditions and
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: people complaining about this already of like the international games
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: and when they go over there and these fields suck
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and all this stuff, how do you bake this into
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: your Dallas Baltimore projections? Yeah, it's a hard question.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: I think this is one of the things that's like,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: getting talked about way more than it needs to.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think it.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Affects ranges of outcomes for basically like any player a
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: whole lot. When field conditions are slick like this, multiple
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: things happen, right? So like, is it true that, you know,
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: a running back like, let's say, or even if it
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: was Zay Flowers on the field, is Zay Flowers going
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: to try to make a cut that he usually is
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: able to make and get by the defender and run
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: for 40 more yards?
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: But this time, his foot goes into the ground and
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: he just slips. Yeah.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: That there's a chance that that happens, but there's also
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: a chance that like Zay flowers makes a subtle move.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: The defender makes, it tries to make a pivot that
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: ordinarily he would make. And now he slips and it's
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: a walk-in touchdown.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Right. Like, and the other big thing is pass rush.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: The pass rushers have a lot less traction.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: We saw that in the super bowl with the Eagles
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: and the chiefs a few years ago, where like the
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: Eagles had this, you know, record-breaking pass rush coming into
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: that game. And again, they weren't able to get anything
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: because they just kept falling every pass rush. So the,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: the field conditions work in both directions. They make things
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: a little bit more unpredictable, but they don't make it
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: so that like we can predict how that's going to
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: affect things, including we can't even make a blanket statement
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: that like, okay, that means it's bad for scoring. It
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: might be, it also might be good for scoring because
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: of the defense might be more effective than the offense. Uh,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: it also means that like one team might have might
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: be wearing better cleats than the other team. And that
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: second team is trying to, you know, make a clean
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: adjustment throughout the game. And they just never do it
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: that well. Like we, we have no idea in terms
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: of like, is it baked into the projections?
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: The answer is yes.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: It's baked in as much as the market breaks it in.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much the market is doing that.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: And I don't know how much the market should be
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: doing it.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Generally.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: My thought here is that people are thinking too much
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: about it. But if it's a thing and it's baked
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: into the market already, which if it is a thing,
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure it is.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Then it's also baked into the projections. Yeah. And also too, like,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: I think it's important. The part you nailed is like
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: about all this, whether it's wind, snow, rain, field conditions, whatever,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: it's always, it's almost always better to be either leave
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: it out of your mind or be on the opposite side, really,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: because people just get way too messed up with it.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: It's like, if it's snowing out, a guy can lose
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: his footing. It's no different than when I talk about
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: cornerback and wide receiver matchups, like, oh, but it's, This
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: guy's going to lock him down or it takes one
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: foot movement in the wrong direction or one coaching call
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: or one audible or anything. And that guy's now wide open.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: You're like, Oh, thought this guy was going to lock
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: him down. It doesn't matter. Like it's one spot, one game,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: one thing. And I'll give you an example right here
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: in this very game. I bet you most people asking
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: about the field conditions are thinking that that should negatively
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: affect it. It's bumpy. It's going to hurt them. It's
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: going to, it could hurt the defenders as well. And
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: let me tell you this, the total has gone from
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: 50 and a half up to 53.5. So if anything,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: it's what's baked in is going to be more points
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: going around because they're saying there's going to be more scoring.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Like the number key doesn't mean it's right. I'm just
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: saying for what the general public's consensus is, When I'm
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: seeing the negativity around it, it's like, Oh, but the
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: field conditions might hurt them. Well, why does the number
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: keep going up then? Why, why is it, you know,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: why is it being thought of as the other way?
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: It's not always the be all end all. I'm just
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: explaining concepts, but do.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: You think that that line movement might be the books
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: expecting Zay flowers to play? Hmm.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: If it is, that's insane because he's still on. Look,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I'm the Ravens fan over here that is the advocate
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: for like Zay Flowers and, you know, think he's awesome.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: When he got paid and people shit on the guy,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: I was like, okay, you're totally missing how underrated this
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: guy is. Also, crazy stat, just of note, I know
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: I'm going off topic and I'll let you go back
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: in a second, but like Scott Barrett posted from Fantasy
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Points Data about... a really interesting stat was like Lamar
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: versus my homes and throwing passes or instead of like
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: the check down bullshit that you always see at them home.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: It's like, it's the Delta's massive. It's like 57 touchdowns
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: to 27 or something for Lamar. It's like everyone all
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: over Lamar is a running back. Just as he's crushing
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: it on every angle, man, he just hasn't been able
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: to get to the show and get the job done.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: But you know, from those stats, I think it's interesting,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if it's a man it's gone
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: up slowly over the week.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: It feels a little bit more to me like the
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: market just realizing, hey, wait a minute, this is Lamar
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: Jackson against a really bad Dallas defense and a good
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: Dallas offense that can probably push this Baltimore offense maybe
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit more than they've been pushed so far.
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I think I'm very interested in
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: this game. I made this point in my Discord, but
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: how can we one week say, hey, Jayden Daniels is
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: in a smash spot against this Dallas defense, and then
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: the next week not say, Lamar Jackson is basically just
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: a better version of Jaden Daniels. Isn't in a smash
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: spot against the same defense. So I think Baltimore is
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: a really smart play.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: And we didn't even get to see Jaden. Like we
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: get it. Like he was going, he was definitely flying around.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: He was going to run for over a hundred yards. Yes.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: By the middle of the third quarter. Like it was,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: it was going to be a really, really big game. Yeah,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: definitely agree, man. And I love that topic of like,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: how can you be in on something on the next week?
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Not funny enough. Usually it's the other way around, but
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: in this case, it feels like it's, Not as much. Now, again, look,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: people are going to land there some. I will say
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: this is another prime example. I don't know. Maybe we
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: can look at it later. But I think it feels like, okay,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: people are in on Bateman. Some that could get kept
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: in check, especially if Zay gets in, that could at
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: least still hold the line on the Bateman ownership number.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: And why I liked what you said earlier too, about like,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: you gotta wait, you always should be waiting for the
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: information to come in. But some of the information related
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: to this week is also related to ownership. Like it's
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: going to change around a ton based on some of
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: these things that we could get. And I know it's
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: not like crazy, but just using the Bateman one as
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: an example, if Zay's ruled out, maybe more people come
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: around to these thoughts we're having right now. But if
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Zay's in, maybe it just holds it in check. And
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: what I was going to say is like, even Andrews
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: is seemingly being held in check because there's so many
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: options at tight end and people don't want to miss
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: out on what they just saw with Schultz. If they
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: can't get to Gibbs, maybe they want Laporta. If they
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: can't get to Walker, they are going with the KC game.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: They want Kelsey. We talked about some of the other
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: ones with Kittle and McBride being in the same game,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: by the way. That's a phenomenal spot and a late
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: swap opportunity as well for some. If you've got different
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: guys left over, there's a ton of ways to go.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: at tight end, but I just don't see Lamar getting
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: much love at all. And then what about back to Dak?
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: If we think that this is going to be a
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: back and forth and Dak can stay in the game
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: with him or that's what's going to push it. Well,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: I don't see as many be like on that side,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: maybe CD lamb, but like picking sucks now, no way
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Ferguson could do that again. Dak, whatever, like people, it
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like as many people are landing on this
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: as what we would have seen just last week in
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: this very spot. Yeah.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: The, the one that I'm, I'm really curious in is
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Lamar's ownership, because if Zay misses, we are going to
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: get a scenario where Andrews is around 20%, Bateman's 25
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: to 30%, something like that. And if you have those
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: two cheap pass catchers, all of a sudden the price
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: tag on Lamar really isn't that prohibitive, but I'm not
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: really seeing signs of him getting the type of ownership
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: that I would expect.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: 7,500 is, Meaningfully above the $ 6, 700 DAC. It's still $ 500
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: cheaper than Josh Allen, which is kind of funny.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: And honestly, I think that's warranted. I think Allen is
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: also a very interesting play this week.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Very similar situation, by the way, too, right? Because we
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: also have DJ Moore very iffy. And so if DJ
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Moore misses now, that makes it easier to get Josh
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: Allen with Kincaid and maybe you go to Josh Palmer
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: or something like that. So there are ways to make
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: both of these guys cheaper. And yet I don't think
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: we're going to see a ton of ownership on either.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: So that is a really, really interesting way to play
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: this slate is just say, okay, well, what if I
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: just do pay up for quarterback? I know that, you know,
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: over the last couple of years, like paying up in
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: DFS and quarterback really hasn't been that smart. But I
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: think part of that is both of these guys, both
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Lamar and Josh Allen. It's not just that their price
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: has been an issue. It's that they haven't supported multiple
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: pass catchers very often. And so double stacking with them
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: just hasn't been very effective for that reason. But now
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: that Kincaid has a larger role, now that maybe DJ
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: Moore is going to be a real wide receiver one
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: for Buffalo, and now that if Zay misses, they have
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: really concentrated production in the passing game with two cheap guys.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: All of a sudden, the double stacks for these guys
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: are way, way more in play than what we've seen,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: and they themselves can be separating performances. So that, to me,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: is the most interesting part about.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: The slate still, which.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: We really, really need this information on Zay and DJ
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Moore for both these guys, but particularly the Zay information.
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: Cause I think as we've talked about now, like this
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Baltimore Dallas game is so incredibly intriguing, especially if people
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: aren't going to it the way I would expect them to. Yeah.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Game time decision. I just went over to DFSOS for
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: the news. This is a nice feature that it's all
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: loaded in from Yahoo and Roto world and Roto wire
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: and underdog and everything and all the latest. So that's
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: the setup there. If I pulled the Zay flowers news
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: and just see, we got one from 34 minutes ago
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: with the expected to test his injury prior to Sunday's
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: game against the Cowboys. And if he suits up, he
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: will likely be on a pitch count. That's what we
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier. So that's the latest news on that situation.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, looking at being able to go
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: up at quarterback, this is another thing this week when
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: you got the Titans D down there, we'll have more
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: on that later. But the other thing that I think
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: is interesting, and it's not going to be a large
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Delta or by any means, but I do feel currently
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: like people are still selecting Josh Allen over, over Lamar Jackson.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: And even because it's only 500 bucks more and you
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: can get to it and it's easy, like it's fine.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: But even if more was out, I still feel way
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: less caught. Like if, if both more and Zay are out,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: let's just say, and you can use this on any week.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: So it's more like an evergreen thing to apply it.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: But like, I still feel way better about the target
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: tree of the Ravens. And the matchup is still solid too,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: that I'm fine with, with the Cowboys that we just saw,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: like we talked about. So for me, it's like, I
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: feel like that would get better. He's out while Bateman
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: and Andrews might hold ownership. I would still be fine
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: with just running it that way, because I don't think
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Lamar is going to get as much of the ownership
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: and Bateman keeps the price down. Some Andrews keeps the price.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: That's a very affordable option. three man stack and there's
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: great run back options on the other side, right? Especially
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: with CD lamb right there at 7,800. So again, tons
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: of ways.
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: And if there's no say, like I I'm also going
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: to be at least exploring some options where I double
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: stack two receivers and you know, it's Bateman and one
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: of the min price, 1% guys instead of Andrews and
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: just hope there are some explosives that way.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: You know, there were, there were.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: A lot of downfield targets last week that just didn't
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: quite hit. So the upside's there for some of those
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: kind of secondary wide receivers for Baltimore.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: It didn't get there all the way, but it was
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: on this show with you that I talked. Remember the
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Tez Walker example last week? Very quick, 47-yard catch. Didn't
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: extend to much more and was not needed by any means.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: It wasn't the statement, but the breakdown of if you're
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: not going somewhere, using that to your advantage. Well, even
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: if Lamar picks up a little steam, even if Bateman
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: picks up a little steam, one way to immediately chop
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: into that is to plug a guy like Walker in
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: there and then hope that this time it's his touchdown
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: with that more. So- Yeah. And he, he got another
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: deep target too.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: So like if, if he just catches that, even if,
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: even if that's all he did, if you just got
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: like two for 90 from Montez Walker, like that's probably
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: enough provided the rest of your, your lineup does well.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: And obviously, you know, those explosive plays put Lamar in
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: position to go get a, uh, another touchdown and then
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: it gets the ball right back to, uh, your CD
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: lamb or George Pickens, whoever your bring back is, uh,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: that much quicker. So yeah, like that, that would be
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: a really, really good run out. I think if, if
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: you've got that sort of thing again.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got Jalen Coker expected to play. He is
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: expected to play.
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: I think both of them are solid plays, though, here.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: Cleveland so far playing the most single high in the league.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: So there's some real explosive play potential for both of
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: those Carolina wide receivers.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: So, I mean, good news is we've already been talking
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: about some ways to leverage this lineup as a whole.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: And we're going to talk more about that when we
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: get to our leverage lanes, but let's look at it and,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: you know, talk through it as we usually do. I
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: think one of the interesting things is just the overall
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: roster composition. We've spent time on this in the past
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: in PGA DFS. We've spent time on it now in
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: NFL DFS, but even for this week, when, like you said,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: it is a little bit more spread out, the common
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: theme seems to be the mid-range tight end, the cheap defense,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: and then I think it's, again, we just talked about
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Allen and Lamar and even Dak. Those, to me, and
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: even if you want to put Burrow into that category, it's,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: to me, most people are actually going Purdy and down.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I know it's spread out, but if you look at, like, Shuck,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: and we just talked about, you know, there's Trevor Lawrence,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: there's Mahomes, which I'm going to bring up in a second,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: there's Brock Purdy, there's... the game of Carolina and Cleveland,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: the back and forth and the up in pace and
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: the receivers being a little bit easier. Now people feel
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: to pick out and say, it's going to be these
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: guys or these guys, let's put them together. So where
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: do you want to go with this Alex to get
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: started on sort of ways that you can leverage the
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: common bill? We talked about the more expensive quarterback. I've
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: got one for later that I'm saving, but anything else
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: that you want to bring up here and then we
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: can start looking at some of these combinations. Yes.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: It strikes me that this, this is a week where
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: I think the field is going to be less correlated
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: than usual because right? Like I think the, the way
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: the field approaches stacks is more like I will double
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: stack and use a bring back when a really good
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: game environment presents itself to me. And it's, it's like
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: clear that this is a, a good way to kind
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: of play all these guys. And, and there are some
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: games where I think that could be the case this week.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: Like I think the Detroit and New York jets game
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: will be double stacked with a bring back a decent amount, but,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: A lot of these spots, so for example, not that
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence himself is really popular, but Parker Washington is
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: really popular, and he's going to bring Trevor Lawrence along
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: to some degree. I think we're going to see a
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: lot of lineups that are like Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington,
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: and then maybe some mini stacks around that, but that's
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: it for that game. And so I think just first
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: and foremost, I think going with double stack and a
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: bring back, or even trying to find a way to
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: triple stack this week, Just in general, out correlating the
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: field is a really kind of just strong way this
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: week to kind of approach, quote unquote, leveraging the chalk bill,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: because I think the chalk bill simply just has less
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: correlation this week than most weeks.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: And that's something I always want to take advantage of. Yeah.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: I like that. You know, just sticking to what works as,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: as opposed to just trying to make other stuff happen.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: But this one was brought up. So I'm going to
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: bring it, but any thought it's again, just going to
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: another cheap jets wide receiver with you. So Mitchell questionable too.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: I think it was too limited practices for him this week.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: I just looked up the news again over there. So
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: the one thing that I saw in the picture, people
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: posting is like his hand wrapped and his hand looks
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: like a, you know, mummified almost. It's like in a,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: it was in black, but it was like, man, that's
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: a pretty big, I think it's like it's hard to
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: tell because black blends in and stuff like that versus,
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: you know, if you're wearing white wrap and somebody in
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: golf is wearing a white wrist strap or a white glove,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see more of the outline. It
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: was really hard to tell. They have dark jerseys. It's
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: like I couldn't see fully, but it looks pretty big.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: on his hand. So people are calling that out and
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: saying like, how would he even catch a ball for Mitchell?
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: But people were interested before in using Adonai Mitchell, probably
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: for good reason before this injury. And then like Wilson
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: as the bring back for the Detroit stacks, or even
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: some people, I think it was in here just earlier. Um,
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: you know, Hey guys, my lane is the Gino stack
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: with JMO Judkins to flip the common construct. So people
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: at least had some against getting spread out, but how
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: they were playing Gino was in a way with Gibbs
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: or almond raw or something on the other side. Yeah,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: I think I do expect Mitchell to play.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I don't really know at this moment how I would
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: feel about Williams if he doesn't.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I think I'd be good with it. And certainly, I think.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: Depending on what that would do to his ownership, to
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Williams' ownership, there's a chance that I would view him
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: as a bad one-off, but as a really good.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: Double stack partner, just because I think the double stack,
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: including him, would be like really, really contrarian. And obviously
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: like that's one of the ways that he hits, right?
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Is like just the offense really produces. Geno Smith has
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: 300 passing yards available to everybody else instead of the
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: expected like 220 or whatever he's at. And all of
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: a sudden, like that helps Williams go from 40 yards
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: to 65. And that means an extra two receptions and
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: maybe it means a touchdown, so on and so forth.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: So that's probably the way that I would think through
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: that one.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah. All right. What what else do you want to
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: cover here? Like the one you mentioned with Trevor Lawrence
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: and Parker Washington could be a starting point for some.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I think also, you know, more examples of that, I
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: guess I'll give a couple would be like, I think
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: you'll definitely see people just play this. Right. Like Purdy Kittle,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: another prime example. And there is, you know, run back options.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if a lot of people would play,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: you know, something like this. with McBride and you know
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: and have double tight end or something like that but
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be more likely they just have him
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: in the tight end I think another one could be
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: and I want to have a conversation on this more
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: in depth but you could also just see this right Mahomes.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Yes yeah we're gonna see a lot of that Again,
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: this is kind of my biggest point here on what
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: the chalk is doing. Because again, this is a week
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: just like last week where there isn't a clear obvious
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: stack that's going to separate in ownership. So it's not
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: so much who is the field going to play? It's
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: what kind of builder are we going to see? How
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: are people going to choose their stack? And how is
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: that going to complement the chalk that exists? There are
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of plays on this slate that people really like.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Tight ends kind of like all in the same range
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: that we know people are going to play kind of
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: in bulk. We know people are going to go to
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: Parker Washington. We know which running backs, to a large degree,
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: people are going to go to. A lot of them expensive.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: So how are people actually fitting all of these plays
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: that they like? And it seems to me like the
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: answer is skinny stacks. Mahomes Kelsey, Lawrence Washington. There are
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: a lot of these that I think people are going
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: to go to. And to me, when the field thinks, okay,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: this is a week where I can just outpick everybody else.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: I don't want to get into a picking combination. I
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: don't want to get into a fantasy football competition with
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: all of these people. I just want to outbuild them.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: And I think that's a much, much easier path to success.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: And that's definitely going to be the.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Way that I go. Hey, that's every week for me.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I don't got the picks in the plays.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: Everyone has their thing. We had a bit, go ahead. Yeah. But,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: but sometimes that's harder to do, right?
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: Like if, you know, let's say week one, like there
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: were a ton of Chuck doubles with a Gibbs bring
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: back or, or, you know, there were, there were some
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: Chuck doubles with, uh, you know, Gibbs and I'm on
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: a St.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Brown is bring backs.
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: Like it's, it's a lot harder to outbuild the competition
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: in a week like that, where people are very naturally
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: landing on very correlated, just like fundamentally sound builds.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: This is not one of those weeks.
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: This is a week where I think people are building
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: bad lineups that they just think, Oh, all these plays
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: are good enough that this is okay. I just built, uh,
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: you know, uh, a really kind of new, cool feature, um,
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: in my contest Sims, uh, which I call implied projections,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: which basically says with contest teams, it's really hard to
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: isolate like, okay, how well have I built this lineup
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: versus how good are the plays in this lineup? And
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: so what the implied projections do is they just say, okay,
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: everybody is projected with preserving their shape of distribution. They're
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: all projected in such a way that they have earned
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: their amount of ownership, no more, no less. They're all
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: efficiently owned So now within this world, if we run
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: through that simulation, are you building lineups that are strong
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: from a correlation standpoint? Are you balancing the contrarian upside
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: separators with high probability plays well? Are you leveraging chalk
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: in a coherent way? If you're doing all those things well,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: now you get this like construction ROI. And so the
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: sim now tells you both how good the lineup is
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: as a whole and how well you've built that team.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: And I think what it's going to show this week
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: is that you can get some really high construction ROIs
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: because the field as a whole is not building the
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: lineups that we view as really well-built lineups because they
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: think they can just kind of, you know, pick players
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: really well this week.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that the field can't.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: And, you know, especially if you're in larger fields, like
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: I do think there are going to be lineups where
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: guys just happen to land on the right combinations of
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: one-offs and things of that nature. But particularly in single entries,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: like this strikes me as a week where we could
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: see much lower top end scores and than what we
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: have become accustomed to seeing and like what we saw
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: in week one, because this might just be a week
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: where no one really gets elevated. And like, it's hard
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: to dodge landmines where you might pick some really good
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: one-offs in your lineup, but if you have too many one-offs,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: you're also going to miss some. And so I think
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: we could see kind of stunted ceilings for that reason.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's more like conceptually. I was like,
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: every week is different to your point. Like week one,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: you're trying to figure out with the chalk for a month,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: what can I do differently there? And what game's going
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: to be popular? How can I play it differently with,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: you know, certain things like last week, it could be
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the flex conversation that we had. Like, again, we're looking
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: to outbuild the field via like zig when they zag,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: but not for stupid reasons, just like for validated reasons.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: And you're even building tools, like you said, that can
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: validate this even further. But my point would be like
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: this week, prime example, you said it and I was
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: going to go there too. It's not my lane, but
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: it's just notable. This is the first week where now
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: people have seen a couple of weeks play out and say, again,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: that overconfidence. Well, the one-off thing kind of can work
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: if I just go this way, or I could just
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: plug in this secondary stack or this thing. And it
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like at least there's not as many game
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: stacks going on. Well, what if that's the week for this?
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: So it's like, I'll just lean in to that. Is
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: it stupid? No, because it actually could happen. We talked
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: about very condensed offenses in some up pace spots, ways
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: that you can get after it, ways that others aren't
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: doing that. You're not being stupid. Yes. It might feel
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: to you when you're building it, like, ah, but I'm
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: missing out on this guy or, oh, I don't have
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: anyone from that. You can't cover them all, but you
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: should be considering them all and then making your decisions
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: based off of that. So that's where the outbuild factor
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: comes from. That's a really good point.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: And I think like one of the things that you
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: and I have kind of talked behind the scenes about,
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: like what we want to do with this show is
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: we don't just want to say like, this is what
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: the ownership is. This is what the field is doing,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: but we also want to talk through why that is.
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: And I think your point there of like, It can
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: feel bad because you're missing out on certain plays. I
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: think that might be an even better explanation this week
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: for why people aren't correlating.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: As much as they often do.
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: It's not necessarily that they're not identifying spots they feel
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: good about, adding a second wide receiver and using a
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: bring back from. It's more like, oh, but if I
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: do that, if I include Bateman in this.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: Lineup now, I don't get this guy. I don't get
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: that guy. Right.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: And, and similar thing like, Oh, I really like Dak here.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: And I, and I love the, you know, Bateman bring back.
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: But if I go with CD lamb now, if I,
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: if I also, if I turn this into a double
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: stack by also using Pickens, I can't get Parker Washington.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: So I'm just going to play Parker Washington and leave
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: it as a single stack.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: I think it's kind of a really good point that
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: I hadn't even really thought through, but I think that
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: does an even better job of explaining why there's not
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: a whole lot of correlated lineups this week. And again,
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: that means that sure, it might feel a little bit uncomfortable,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: but when you have these types of game environments, like
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: across the slate, if one game does separate, it now
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: makes that even that much more valuable. So we've already
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: said multiple times, like that's going to be one of
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: the ways that we, we try to build this week,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: but I think putting the why on it is always
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: kind of a nice touch.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I think it just helps people more that don't fully,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: you know, grasp it or think like, well, yeah, but I'm,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: but a lot of people like say they understand or
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: say they're going to get it and they're going to
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: go build like that. And then they still go build
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: the opposite way of what we just talked about. So
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: it's like trying to make sure at least on this
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: show that we're helping you guys as much as possible,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: be able to get to those situations and build your
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: lineups that way. Now, uh, excuse me one sec. I
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: tried to mute it. I couldn't, but I thought I
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: was going to sneeze. Um, I was going to say this.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I put a name on the screen. I put the
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: disclaimer up very early this week with people. I've realized
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: why they've invented two quotes in life. And one is,
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: never say never. And then two is, all good things
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: must come to an end. To me, and I never
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: do this. The only other time I did this though, Alex,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: so I do have a good result. I feel okay
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: with the Mahomes Millie maker. Maybe imagine my Millie maker
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: comes off of Mahomes. I know the streak. I will
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: say this, though. The only other time I've broken a
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: streak this long was telling people to stop betting Will
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Zalatouris for a year plus. And then the only time
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: I bet him was a one-off week. I had the receipts.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: They're posted out. I put $ 1, 000 on him to win.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: I was there live in Memphis. He won in a
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: crazy playoff. And I came in third in the five.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: I had tons. It was like that was the one week.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: And this is the week we might break it. So
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: I put the disclaimer, it's still a might because you
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: never know what you need by the end of the week,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: but there's too many things going in the favor. And
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: it actually ties together a lot of what we just
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: talked about. So, you know, when, when you look and
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I want to get this from you later on, cause
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: we're going to get this demo from you anyway, but
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: like people are playing Kenneth Walker off the charts and,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: you know, he's boosting up in some places, not others.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: And so, It's like a perfect storm. People are then
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: moving to Kelsey, but how many are playing all three
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: of them together? And then on top of it, we
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: just had this big long argument in our discord yesterday.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: And this was my point about like how we're trying
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: to outbuild every week. And I just don't care. Like
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: you could tell me whatever you want about how bad
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Xavier worthy sucks. I don't care if he's good. If
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: he's bad, those lineups are dead. Good for those lineups
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: too bad for them, but good for them. I don't care.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: It's what I'm trying to say is, If it's X worthy,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: that fits in the build. If it's Taekwon Thornton, that
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: fits in the build. I don't know who it's going
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: to be that does good, but I know if you're
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: playing Mahomes, you want to get enough of him to
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: be able to cover these angles, but we could have
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: it where it's Mahomes, Walker, Rice, Thornton, Worthy, Kelsey, and
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: blend it up. On the other side, we have Caleb
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Douglas out. You have Malik Washington and Bell who can
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: speed up a game. You got A-Chan who can speed
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: up a game. And talking about those overstacks, this would
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: be one of them. So it's to me, when you
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: have the perfect storm, the only time I would break
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: free is when you have that. You got Walker being
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: the only guy that's getting loved. Mahomes with Walker alone
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: might be different enough, right? Mahomes with Walker and Kelsey
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: should be different. Mahomes with Walker and Kelsey and at
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: a fourth should be very different. And man, they're scheduled
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: to put up almost 30 points.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: On the road.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Miami just does not care. But, but... the other part
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: about this, if there was ever a week for Miami
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: to care and show up is it's the perfect timing.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: You know why? Because they're going to lose anyway. They
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: just show up and play really good and still lose,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: but at least look like you showed up. And so
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: to me, it's there's a lot of things going into
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: this recipe. But I did want to get your thoughts
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: on the Mahomes stack game stack possibility of that game
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: just going back and forth here this week. Do you
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: want me to bring up the conditional ownership stuff? If
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: you can, now might be the best time. Yeah, let's
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: do that. It'll be a nice preview.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: So once we get to the leverage lane, people are
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: already a little bit familiar with the conditional ownership stuff.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I want to see it 100%. So bring it up.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: I will go back to this. I'll remove mine and
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: you should be able to present yours. Yeah. All right.
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: Can you see it? I think you just have to
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: add it. Add it. Perfect. Bang. Oh, add it. Remove it.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Add it. Now we're good. Go ahead.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: So the way this conditional ownership stuff works is it
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: essentially says... put a player in and now let's view
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: how ownership changes within the world of lineups where this
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: player is included. And so here we can see like
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: the condition is Kenneth Walker is in the lineup. So
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: what happens to my homes, his ownership. And by the way,
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: like you can choose the, uh, the contest of interest, uh,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: up top, I'm going to stick with the high stakes
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: here just because otherwise we get into sample size issues.
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: And so there's a little bit more noise. Uh, I,
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: and in fact, like for, you know, that's a point
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: I made with my subscribers. Even if you're playing single entry,
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: it might make sense to view this in the high
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: stakes instead, just because then you get the better sample size.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: And with that side note, side note, definitely only playing
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: it like this. I'll play it in the middle. These
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: are Millie maker. This is for the Millie maker for me.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: I need it to, if I'm doing this, it got
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: to win me all the money. There's no chance I'm
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: doing this for a couple of bucks. So it's the
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: M in my homes stands for Millie. We're getting after it.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Keep it in the five 55. Perfect for this. Now,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: let me start somewhere else, actually.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Instead of starting with Mahomes and Kenneth Walker, because I'll
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: kind of talk through why that's a little bit difficult.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Let's start instead with Lamar and let's look at Derrick Henry.
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: And so here we can see, okay, let's go salary.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: So Henry looks really, really neutral, basically just as owned
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: within Lamar Jackson lineups as he is outside of Lamar
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: Jackson lineups. This is interesting because last week, the reason
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: why I created this conditional ownership tool in the first
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: place was like just to help me make the field
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: lineups in the contest even better. And then as I
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: was doing it, I was like, wait a minute, this
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: is like a really cool tool that I should put
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: on the site.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: So one of the things I learned last.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: Week was that Uh, my, my field lineups were overestimating
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: how much Henry would go with Lamar Jackson and underestimating
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: how much McCaffrey would go with Purdy. So now let's
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: go look at Purdy lineups and let's see McCaffrey. And
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: now we get, look at this. So 12 and a
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: half percent overall, but inside of Purdy lineups, 35.7% owned
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: a Delta of plus 23.2 percentage points. So the reason
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: I start with these two guys is because what that
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: result last week showed me was, okay, I need a
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: stronger dial to find out who people will pair quarterback
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: and running back with and who people will not do
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: that with, at least to the same degree. And so
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: there are two aspects of that calculation or formulation, however
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: you want to say, that goes into the field lineup generation.
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: The first is just past results. How willing have people
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: been in the past to pair Henry with Lamar Jackson,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: to pair CMC with Brock Purdy? Then the second thing
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: is just like an archetype of offense environment. How involved
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: is this guy in the receiving game? What are his
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: targets per game? What's his average at the target out
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: of the backfield? So on and so forth. Both of
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: those things have real meaningful signal in terms of how
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: likely people are to be willing to pair that quarterback
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: and running back together in stacks. So the reason I
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: went off on this tangent is because we only have
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: one of those aspects with Mahomes and Walker. So I
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: am going to show this, but I would also say like,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: take some of this with a grain of salt. There
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: is a chance that people are more on the Henry
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: side than the McCaffrey side. Certainly people aren't going to
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: be as willing to put Walker with Mahomes as they
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: are McCaffrey with Purdy. There's no question there, but is
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: it going to be as restrictive as Henry with Lamar
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: or is it going to be as restrictive as what
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: I'm showing here? So if Walker's in, you see there
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: is a boost to Mahomes. If we do it the
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: other way around, If we start with Mahomes, there is
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: a boost to Ken Walker here. In fact, a pretty
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: sizable one, so plus 17.5, about a 50% relative boost.
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: To the Walker ownership.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: You, however, said like, okay, but how many people are
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: going to Walker if they also like Travis Kelsey?
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: So we can do that as well. We can come here.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: You can see this like enormous boost for Kelsey. No
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: surprise there. That shows how much people stack. And then
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: we can say, okay, well, given that start, how many
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: people are going to Walker? It does shrink, but it's
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: not necessarily super unique. And so I think the way
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: that this would really hit is if there's just no
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: mercy from Kansas City or, of course, if Miami really
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: pushes them.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: But what if Mahomes and company put up 45 points
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: in this game?
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: I think that's the path you need because it doesn't
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: look like this is going to be a super unique approach.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: But if you go Mahomes, Kelsey, Walker... And let's say
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: Thornton or Worthy. Just use an example. Okay. So let's see.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: Now we want here. You know what? I can sort
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: by team. I'm going to put in a team. Oh,
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: I can do that. Look at that. Look at me go.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: So let's go KC.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: So even with that start, you still are getting a
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: bunch of Worthy and recognize the fact like this is
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: conditional ownership, right? This is not saying that wow, 36%
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: of lineups are going to have Mahomes, Walker, Kelsey worthy.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: Of course not.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: This is saying that within lineups that have Mahomes, Kenneth Walker,
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Travis Kelsey, what percentage are also going to have worthy?
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: So what this says is like, this is still more
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: contrarian than not adding worthy, right? Because you're getting a 36%.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: On guy here. So that means that, you.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: Know, 64% of people decided not to add another one
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: of these guys to me, like, if I'm going to
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: Kansas city, I'm going rushy rice, right? Look how, look
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: how low owned he is in all of this stuff.
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: So even, even in just my homes, like look how
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: much lower owned he is than all of these other guys, right?
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: Like that's, that's crazy. Even in my home's lineups, rushy rice,
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: the wide receiver one with him in the, in the past,
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: only 11% of my home's lineup. So To me, number one,
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: a really good use case of this tool is finding
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: the contrarian way to play whatever stack you're doing, especially
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: if you're going to a chalkier stack and you're looking
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: for a contrarian way to do it, but also just
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: finding the areas of the stack that are just like, well,
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, this doesn't vibe with how this stack
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: has hit in the past. If you look over the
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: last two years, The vast majority of really good Mahomes
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: games have been really good Rashi Rice games. So that's
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: the way that I would do it, I think.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: I think the other thing too, is like, I'm fine
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: with Thornton and it's kind of the same thing for
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: a lower price that I can boost up elsewhere. The
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: other thing that's really stands out to me here is like,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: just take Kelsey out of it and you're in good shape.
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: And we already talked about that. And I think you
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: talk with Mayo about it as well. Just breaking down
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: the difference of like tight ends with the quarterbacks and maybe,
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: you know, a different topic for another time. But just
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: to note it, I think that's kind of the thing
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: that stands out to me is like, once you go
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: to Kelsey, uh, people that do that with, do you
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: have the Kittle Purdy version? Yeah. Um, real quick, I
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: wanted to show this. You said like, okay, well, what
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: if you just take out Kelsey?
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: So once you've added a player into the condition, you
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: just click him again and it changes, uh, what that
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: condition is. So this says in lives that do not
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: have Travis Kelsey, you take my homes down from 10%
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: to 4%. So you go like my homes, Rashi rice,
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: Kenneth Walker. Now you're in business. Now that's a really, really,
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: really low owned thing. And that like, to me, that
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: has way more separation potential than using Kelsey anyway. Cause
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: how does Kelsey get there? Like, eight receptions just over
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: and over. Sure, he can get there on touchdowns, but
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: if you want the big plays, like a screen pass
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: to Walker that he takes 40 yards to the house.
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: or a crossing route to Rashi Rice that he takes
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: 40 yards to the house. That's where you're really getting
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: those ceiling Mahomes performances.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: That's where the one-off conversation comes from because we've had
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: it enough in the past, and I know you just
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: had it and all that stuff, but the Schultz thing.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: He ends up breaking the slate and is needed, but
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: it's as a one-off. It's the last drive when he
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: gets six catches and whatever. Yes, he had other stuff
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: going on. It's not even shitting on the Schultz play
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: because it was chalk. It's noting that if Kelsey gets
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: eight catches but no touchdowns, He's just catching those balls
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: over the middle and landing at the clocks, just burning.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: Things are just running. It doesn't necessarily do shit from
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: a homes or that stack or anything, but Taekwon Thornton
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: catching a 60 yard bomb. Well, boom, let's get this
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: thing going, man. Let's see this thing speed up. That's
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: what makes the difference of it. But people just naturally go.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Cause they go together. It's like, okay. Yeah. If he
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: gets you two or three touchdowns and then yeah, that'd
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: be phenomenal. But otherwise you can get that from different
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: ways in different places. So what I wanted to compare was,
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: was like the Kittle version to see if it's just
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: as good or just as high with Purdy. That's the example. Yeah.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: So to me, this screams, okay, if I'm using Brock Purdy,
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: I'm not using George Kittle because look at this. He
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: goes from 7% overall to 52% within Purdy lineups. If
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: you're doing this because you have this preconceived notion that, okay,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: I want to stack the tight end position. I personally,
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: I've moved away from that based on the roster construction data,
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: but I know a lot of people still have that thought.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to spend too much time arguing against it,
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: but look what you can do here. You can still
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: correlate it. And you go to McBride who goes from
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: being a slightly higher owned guy overall to being significantly
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: more contrarian within pretty lineups.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: Wide receiver one. So it's even as well. Yeah.
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Like to me, like that's, that's a really good way
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: to build a San Francisco lineup. Maybe you add Debo
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: or DeMarcus Robinson, if you want to make it a
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: double stack. Um, I think it's going to be really
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: hard to do like, uh, pretty Evans McCaffrey and big bride.
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: It's just going to be way too much salary. So
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: that's why I left McCaffrey out of that. But, but yeah, like, that's,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: that's a really good option. And, and sure, like these
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: guys become a lot higher, but man, by simply not
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: using Kittle, it's the same sort of thing.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: So let's, let's do it the opposite way, right?
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: Let's go to Kittle and let's just take him out
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: and now say, okay, and Lana said, don't include Kittle.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: What happens to Purdy's ownership? And we find he goes
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: from 6.3 to 3.2%.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: So it's a similar thing.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: Like I think just excluding the obvious tight end within
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: a stack is is you can turn any stack into
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: a contrarian stack by simply excluding the popular tight end
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: that goes along with them.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: I can't imagine year is 2026 and people don't have
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: YouTube premium yet. It's like people watch more YouTube than
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: they watch anything else in the entire world. So for that,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: I would definitely recommend it if you want to get,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: it doesn't help me at all. It helps you because
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: people are wondering about ads and stuff like that. It's like, yeah,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: there's this thing called free shows. And when you do
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: them for free, There's either we sit here and talk
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: about ads all day, or we actually talk about good
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: shit that nobody else in the industry has or does,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: or we run ads and you get to listen to
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: me talk about manscaping your nuts. Like that's the difference
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: in this type of setup, but easily just go get
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: YouTube premium. I get $ 0 for when you do that,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: you just get to skip ads and not worry about them.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: But the chat is hilarious. When it comes to that stuff,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: they're watching 40 hours of YouTube premium of YouTube shows
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: a week. And like these ads, these ads, man, it's
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: like a, you, you drive a car, you got to
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: go get some gas too. You need something to actually
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: move the needle. These creators, that's how they get paid.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: So just note that when you're doing it. So it's
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: super cheap for what you're getting. It's one of the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: cheapest in the world, but all right. Really good job
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: with this. I think it's going to come back up
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: again anyway, so leave it for now. But I will
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: say that if you guys are wanting to get involved
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: and check out Blick Analytics and go get that, you
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: can use the promo code TAMBO to check it out
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: and get in there. The Discord, all this stuff, the
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: roster construction data. I just thought the tight end stuff was,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: you know, the data on that stuff was interesting based
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: on explaining it. And then I was having that conversation
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: with Pat the other day. I was like, man, like
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: Blickle sold me on this stuff. You got to talk
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: to him about it because it actually makes a ton
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: of sense. The more you think about it, when you're
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: just looking at these games and how they play out. Yeah.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: And I think as we, as we kind of go
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: through the, the conditional ownership stuff, like it's clear why,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: you know, building stacks through wide receivers instead of tight
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: ends has been so, so valuable. It's because from a
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: conditional ownership standpoint, you're just getting much, much, much better
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: numbers on, on your side. And, And so, yeah, I've
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: built a lot of stuff in my life at this
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: point for DFS. And some of it's a swing and
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: a miss. Some of it I care about for two
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: weeks and then never think about it again. But the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: two that have had the most staying powers, the GPP
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: scores have been kind of revolutionary for me in DFS.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: And I think the conditional ownership tool is probably now
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: my second favorite thing that I've ever built. And I
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: think it's going to be a huge part of my
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: process for years and years now. And There's definitely nothing
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: else like it in the industry. So I definitely recommend
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: checking it out over at Blick Analytics. Yeah.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: And I think we did the AI DFS cohort where
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of people right now are using AI. I
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: talk about it all the time. I get pitched weekly
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: on a ton of different options that, oh, this new tool,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: this new thing, this new extra, whatever, all these different factors.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: But to me, it's like... One thing I will say,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: like you said, I'm a big quality over quantity guy, right?
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: I talk about all the time, less is more. But
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: I will say a lot of people don't remember or
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: think about this part that the quality comes from the quantity.
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: So you'll try out a project, you'll work on some stuff.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: But if it's not... cool project or it's not something
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: that you can see holding value and moving forward with
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: it's sometimes tricky to continue staying up those late nights
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: working down that path and for example using AI to
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: help gather things quickly and do it everyone thinks that
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: AI is like the worst enemy it's about how you're
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: using it and what you're using it for right that's
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: the difference like Again, there's a ton of ways to
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: make your life easier and use it to assist, but
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: it just gets you there quicker. Vibe coding. We talked
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: about on that cohort of like a way that you
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: can just talk to it like a normal person and
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: not have to know how to code and then still
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: get yourself something pretty cool out of it. This tool
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: is definitely pretty solid when it comes to like what
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: you said, like being able to see that kind of stuff.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: Some stuff you'll know intuitively. Like someone would say, no shit,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: Kelsey's more popular in Mahomes lineups.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: But then a lot of people still just go and
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: plug that in as their starting point when they're building it.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: So that would be an example where you can just
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: get different, like you said, or the Purdy with Kittle thing. Well,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: what about the Purdy with... McBride instead, like things like that.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: So anything else you want to talk about on, you know,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: leveraging the chalk build? I don't really have a ton
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: of different angles of attack as much as, or sorry,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: like actual examples as much of angles of attack. Like
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: we talked about like over stacking one that I'm saving
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: for leverage lane. I know you're going to show a
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: little bit more during your leverage lane with that type
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: of stuff. But I think the big thing for me
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: this week is, is the key point that you pointed
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: out of people just trying to say, Hey, I got
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: this mini stack. let me add a mini stack, a
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: mini stack and a mini stack or just one offs
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: and versus you can actually build it differently. And then
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: the other thing is just one lesson from last week. Um,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: we could see it again this week too, but was like,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: you know, you saw a bunch of wide receivers, chase, uh, lamb, uh, JSN,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: et cetera, all come through when everybody was on those
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: running backs. We talked already this week, but there is
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: some sort of fragile spots when it comes to what
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: people are getting comfortable with in some of these positions
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: with some of these running backs, some of these wide receivers,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: some of these tight ends. So I like the theory of,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: like you said, overstacking and paying up for quarterbacks, some
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: of those ones that we talked about, but anything else
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: you want to want to talk about? Uh, not really.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: So is it, is it time for like what people
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: are overconfident in this week?
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: Yes, definitely can bring us there. Cool.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: I think this is the one that I kind of
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: talked about in week one is what I thought we
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: would see. And we're getting an example kind of earlier
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: in the season than I expected, which is people using
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: coverage data in what I believe is like the just
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: completely wrong way.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: So again, like.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: A lot of this coverage data is really valuable. It's
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: really insightful, but It's, it's not always obvious the best
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: way to use it. And so there's a, there's a
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: player I'll just name him ahead of time. Like Parker
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: Washington this week, I think is being overowned because of
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: what coverage data is saying about him. And to be clear,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: Parker Washington has an awesome role. He seems like a
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: fantastic player. I was decently high on him in, in
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: best ball, not nearly as high as some people around
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: the industry. Like he got steam so much and I
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: was only a little bit overweight on him. So I'm
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: not going to try to victory lap that in any way,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: shape or form. But, His ownership this week against a
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: New England defense that's a pretty strong defense, I just
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: don't totally understand.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: And so the way that I will kind.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: Of talk about this, if you will, the thing that
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: people are pointing to, so let's just go first, like
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: why is this an overreaction from people? He's been really
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: good against too high so far this season. And New
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: England plays a lot of too high.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: So what?
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: That's a tiny sample size. Not only is it a
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: tiny sample size, but you're talking about a split that
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: from one season to the next doesn't even have stability, right?
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: So like a player who one year is good against
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: too high, that doesn't tell you anything about how he's
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: going to be the next year against too high coverages.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: That's not one of the splits that has stability. The
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: splits that do have stability are single high. So someone
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: who does really well against single high coverage does tend
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: to continue to do well against single high coverage.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: The next year.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: Reason being that the, the skill against single high is
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: easily like definable. And you can point to it as, okay,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: if someone's really good against single high, it probably means
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: they're explosive. And it's like a very real predictive thing
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: that defenses that play a lot of single high, give
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: up more explosive plays, but the skill of like being
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: good against too high, being good against most likely zone coverage.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: Cause more, more two high coverages are zone, more single
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: high coverages are man.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't translate in the same way.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: So not only is this like a bad starting point,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: you shouldn't be caring about someone splits against two high coverage,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: but it's also just a bad use case in the
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: sense that like you're grabbing a sample size of two
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: games this season. It's not anywhere near enough. It doesn't
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: tell you a damn thing. And again, like this doesn't
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: mean that Parker Washington is a bad play this week.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: I think his efficient ownership is probably like 15%, which
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: still makes him one of the better plays in his
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: range from a probability of success standpoint, but he should
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: be 15%. He's going to be 25%. That's a big inefficiency.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: So that's something I wanted to point out. It's less
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: about not playing Parker Washington. It's more about when you're
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: on Twitter, when you're consuming all of the content around
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: the industry, it's just something to watch out for. When
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: people are citing these splits that sound really good, that
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: sound like, oh my God, this is so exciting. This
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: guy who I already liked anyway has this great matchup
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: that I didn't even know about because I didn't have
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: this data for myself. Pump the brakes a little bit
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: and ask yourself, does the data that they are citing
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: actually mean something? Or is it just a nice thing
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: that makes me seem like I should be excited, but
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: there's not actually a whole lot there? And more often
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: than not, the answer is going to be the latter.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: And now that we're in a day and age of
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: DFS where I think this is actually impacting ownership, I
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: think it's something to really watch out for.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with all that. And again, one thing
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: I'd want to see, let's see, can we bring this
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: back up? You've got them up there on the screen.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: I shouldn't have really done that. You could add randomness
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: up on your screen. I just showed it off. But anyway,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: luckily I could see you didn't have too much up there.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: I'm curious because he's so owned on his own, which
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: we already know. What is it? Because remember we saw
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: this week one where people were talking about Trevor. It
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: would have been inverted, but they were talking about Trevor Lawrence,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: but then they could never get to the stack because
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: they didn't want to just plug him in with Parker
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: Washington and Myers and run it back. What are we
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: seeing on the Jag situation here? Goodness gracious. Yeah, he's
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: in 90% of Trevor Lawrence lineups. Yeah. It's so high.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: But it's... Sorry, sorry, sorry. No, no, that one makes
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: sense because that's, again, that's some of the intuitiveness. I
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: actually want to see the inverted of that. Yeah, that's
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: what I was.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: So putting Parker Washington in the lineup takes Trevor Lawrence
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: from 8% to 26%, which, again, is like... This is
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: the point I was making earlier of like, okay, I
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: think we're going to see a lot of single stacks
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: because people aren't necessarily looking this week for a game
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: and then one-offs around that game, they're saying, well, I
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: like all these individual plays. So instead of stacking, let
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: me just attach the quarterback to one of these plays
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: that I like. And, and that's why we're seeing this, uh,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: this really high conditional ownership on Trevor Lawrence.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And the thing is that all makes perfect sense.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: The Trevor Lawrence stuff as a whole though, it's like,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: he's going to stay in check. And then like, again,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: you can go deeper with it, but how can you
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: do like, um, Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, and Myers and,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: and see what that looks like. So, yeah.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: So the, the way you do that is you say like, okay,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: I'm going to put two of the three in and
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: then check the conditional ownership for others. So, um, this
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: is a, a fairly large lift for Myers, but still
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: it's only 12% adding him on. And it looks like
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: just a total of like, uh, you know, 12 and
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: then 18. So you might get, uh, something like 30%
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: of all Trevor Lawrence lineups are double stacks. That's a
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: very low percentage. Actually it's, it's probably higher because we
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: also have burned strange. So yeah, 50% of all Trevor
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: Lawrence stacks are double stacks. That's, that's still a very
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: low percentage. And it's something that like, if you are
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: sold for some reason on Trevor Lawrence this week, I
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: don't know what the reason would be, but by simply
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: making it a double stack with a bring back, like
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: I think you're going to put yourself ahead of the
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: curve on a lot of the, uh, the Lawrence Parker
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: Washington single stacks. But, For me, this tells me less, okay,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: I should use him and double stack him and more,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: I just should stay away from Lawrence and Washington in general. Yeah.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: I think for me, it's like a little different, but
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: that information helps me get to my same opinion of
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: saying it's like, if it's, if it is Washington, I
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: want him actually having an explosive game, which would connect
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: to Lawrence, which would make the game go more back
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: and forth, back to our previous point of how to
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: leverage the chalk builds. I'm not just running Lawrence with Washington.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: You can, but it's, it makes more sense to me
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: to get different that like, um, Myers was like 1.7%.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: Does he pop up more into the triple stack? Sure.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: But I've still put myself in a room of like
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: 12 out of a hundred teams. And then you get
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: the rest of the lineup to separate yourself. So you
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: still get yourself in a pretty small room. That's unique
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: to the top. If it actually happens, otherwise probably just avoid.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: That's how I would agree with you on the other
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: side of it. It's like, so, so how about this?
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 2: So look, we can go, uh, we can put all
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: new England in here and, uh, and we can just
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: go conditional ownership here.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: Whoops. Oh, It's harder to do New England.
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: I'm going to add a team filter instead of just
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: making you search because this is a little bit annoying.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: Do you type Pats, Patriots? I don't think so. Let's see.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 2: No, it's just the defense then. It's a team abbreviation here,
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: so I'm just going to add a team filter to this.
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: What we see here, check this out, is let me
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: go back to the Delta because that'll at least give
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: us New England guys. You can see, all right, a
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: lot of these New England guys are being used as bringbacks.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: Not a ton, but how about the most explosive player
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: on the team at one and a half percent conditional ownership.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: And you just hope that Trevion breaks out another 40
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: yard touchdown run, like he did last week. And you
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: get another game or another just overall running back environment
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: where nobody separates. And now this is a huge piece.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: Cause not only does that like one long touchdown run,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: maybe you get to maybe right.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: Like maybe he only gets 12, 10, 12 carries, something
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: like that. But two of them are long touchdowns.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: And now he gets the a hundred yard bonus and,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: gets you two touchdowns is one of the highest scoring
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: players on the slate. And those plays got the ball
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: right back to your stack. And so I agree with
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: you there. I think going Lawrence, Washington, Trevion might be
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: the way to do it. And just hope that it
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: really breaks your way that way. So you're getting a
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: little bit more correlation in the field, but you're doing
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: it in a really intelligent way that would meaningfully boost
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: Lawrence and Parker Washington. Cause like adding Jacoby Myers, for example,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: If Myers has a good game, that doesn't necessarily boost
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: the outlook for the combination of Lawrence and Parker Washington.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: Whereas if Trevion Henderson has a big game, it absolutely
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: makes Lawrence and Parker Washington significantly more likely to succeed.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Mine is going to be, uh, I'm fully aligned
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: with a guy, Aaron Smith, usually not actually. He's a
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: lot of good comments in there, but sometimes I disagree,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: but this one, uh, definitely in on, I think that
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: the Warren ownership just skyrocketing, the Sims are flying them
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: up the board even further. I get that he's only 5,700.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: I understand it's pittsburgh at home etc etc but um
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: you know to me there's again cincinnati d has looked
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: a little better to start the season so that's one
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: thing and that's small sample it's way more about the
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: overconfidence or just like the automatic gotta play this guy
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: and plug them in i think we've talked about a
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: ton of different ways with over stacks to get that
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: cheap wide receiver to boost you back up so you
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: might not even need to be in that position or
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: what you're going to there and then i think there's
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: other spots that i would spend but i do think
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: this one is the one I have at least the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: most concern with. I understand why he's popular. He's going
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: to be in my portfolio, played accordingly, finding that stuff out.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: Like what Alex just showed, you can see how to
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: do that. But just noting it, he at 5,700 seems
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: like the guy that's getting the most steam and boost.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: Like he could be double Chuba Hubbard, who I actually
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: think is more of the real deal. And I know
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: he has to go in and play the Browns, another
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: AFC North defense, but just noting it, I would pay
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit more for something like that if that
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: was going to be the case. Yeah.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: And I mean, it's the, it's the same, It's the
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: same concept as Bijon against Carolina last week, right? Like
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: the way that these really chalky running backs fail more
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: often than not is the offense as a whole just
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: looks really, really bad. And the chances that this Pittsburgh
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: offense looks really, really bad against Cincinnati this week seems
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: fairly significant. So yeah, I like the Warren fade. I
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: also really like the Warren fade with the Cincinnati defense,
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: things like that.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And then another thing like Mayo and I talked
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: about this yesterday, but you don't, just cause you go
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: to the Cincinnati D you don't have to play chase
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: Brown or something. It has nothing to do with that.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: It's just that sometimes that works out. Sometimes it doesn't.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: We had the good one last year where we flipped the, um,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: the breeze hall jets to the Judkins Browns and it
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: ended up really working out. And if a man, if
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: he had that tool back then you would have seen
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: an insane difference. in those two combinations. And it was
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: a one and a half point spread. So using it
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: to find those things out, I think are somewhat interesting.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: I do think the running back position this week, my
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: last comment, just in general would be, Some overconfidence. We
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: often have this because running back chalk is the best chalk.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: You've got the roster construction date on this. It's like
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: pitchers in MLB. Like, yes, it is better. But when
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: it gets really condensed, last week is a prime example.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: It's not to say last week is this week because
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: it's not. But when people kind of put it down
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: to three options and like this is what it is,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: I'll look for alternatives. Like last week, you got a
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: bunch of them. But like this week, A-Chan, getting a
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: little bit of love. I think Tootin, by the way,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: is a great leverage play on Washington. They already said
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: he's going to get more passing work. He looks fine
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: on the ground. You just can't get to him because
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: people are going to pay for the other cheap running
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: backs or they're going to move up. He's $ 100 less
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: than Warren, and he's a pivot to the Parker Washington piece.
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: You and I just both brought up overconfidence. My brain
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: just goes immediately to how do we pair that together?
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: What about Tootin in that spot? Again, will people end
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: up there? No. They can say they will, but they won't.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: Brees Hall himself. He's one that actually could fit with
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: the Jets D because you don't have to put them together.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: But if you're not going to be on Detroit, that's
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: somewhat interesting. Chuba Hubbard and Judkins in that same game,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: Montgomery going against Indy, I think is again, these are
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: not my favorite plays. I'm just noting like ways you
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: can get different out of position. Judarian price full go
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: this week. We've been waiting for a bright, a breakout.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: I think he's one of the offensive rookie of the
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: year candidates and was, I should say, I mean, haven't
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: seen it yet, but it's only a matter of time.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: And then when it does happen, uh, Right now, going
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: up against that Washington team, he's an option. And there's
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: a couple more. I'm just saying the point being overconfidence
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: in a position as a whole. You don't see it
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: at wide receiver ever. You never see it at quarterback.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: People spread it out this week even more so than most.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: And at tight end this week, it spread out. We
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: talked about it. There's eight to 10 guys that people
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: are interested in. Defense kind of very, uh, you know,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: a good segue here in a second, very overconfident in
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: that this week, or just overconfident in what the builds
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: you get from it. Not necessarily that people love the Titans,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: but they do see D line versus. O-line. Potential rain
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: is like, what, 96%? So it's going to be a
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: nor'easter or whatever people are calling it. It's going to
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: be a lot of weather there and they're cheap. So
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: when you put all those things together, but then it's
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: also what does it do for the lineup? So I
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: think that's the other interesting factor from there. Are you
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: ready to finalize with your leverage lane? I got mine
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: that we could go to or you can go to
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: yours first. I I'm ready. Why don't you kick us off? Yeah,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: I'll start it off. Cause you don't want to pull
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: the screen back up. I think you want to show
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: off a couple more things, but mine is going to
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: be very simple this week. And this will be for
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: like my main entry, my higher dollar, my five 55 millimakers,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: stuff like that. Paying up for defense. It's not just
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: because the Titans are going to be an insanely owned number.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: I think these pay up defenses do a couple of things.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: So I spent some time on this, just noting it,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: but like that example, I just gave how you can
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: kind of like put the pieces together and but there's
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of examples where people are on the Titans
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: and CMC, for example, or whatever, insert Jameer Gibbs, insert whatever.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: It's like you could have, instead of Jameer Gibbs, you
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: can have Amin Ra or Jameson Williams. Instead of CMC,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: you could have Trey McBride opposite side of that game,
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: or Kittle or something else in that spot. So it's like, there's,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: when you pay up for the defenses this week, you
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: could get the ceiling score. You're not just hoping for
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: the six or seven points that everybody's talking about with
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: the Titans. As long as I get, you know, seven
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: or eight points or whatever number they want to use.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: I'm good. You don't know if you are, and you
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: don't know what the slate's going to bring. That worked
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: last week when people had, you know, five or six
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: points at the defense, but had all the points from
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: the other guys. But I think this week with the Seahawks,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: with the Chiefs, with some of these other ones up
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: there that you got to pay up for, I think
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: there's a real value. Even the Lions this week going
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: against the Jets. I think there's a real value to
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: going up at defense this week. And that allows for
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: me to not just say pay up for defense because
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: the Titans are bad chalk. It's pay up for the defense.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: And Titans will fit in other lineups to make things work.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: But when you go up to this defense... then you
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: can actually have it. So you get some unique options
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: of dropdowns from your studs to like your mid ranges,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: which is just not common this week, the way people
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: are building. So I think that's the other intriguing thing.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: I think I'm using the Titans. I will just put the,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: the note, not a caveat I'm noting is like, cause
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: I know people are still doing it and I'm doing
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: it in my portfolio some, but the lineups I've seen
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: the Titans go into are, are like over back to
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: these over stacks. It's really over stacking to get like
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: everything into a lineup that also correlates versus the previous
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: points we've had on this very show where people are
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: like Lawrence Washington, Gibbs, whoever else, like, you know, whoever
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: the guy, Gibbs Walker, Jalen Warren, and Mark Andrews. It's like, yeah,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: you're touching on every spot and you're getting all the
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: best quote unquote plays at every spot and using the
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: Titans to do that. I want the Titans in my...
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: hell I'll just say like the, the Mahomes, uh, Walker
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: rice worthy lineup with a, you know, a Chan on
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: the other side. Well, who has that with the Titans?
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: Not many people. Right. But now it's because I'm getting
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: to different separation scores and things like that. So I'll
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: let you talk about yours, but that that's going to
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: be mine for this week. I like that one a lot.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: And it also gets to something like it's nice when
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: we can do a leverage lane that is unique.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: Right. And, and I, so many people.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: Just kind of view the DST position as a throwaway
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: and the, the roster construction analysis that I've done really
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: kind of points to it as actually a pretty key
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: decision point where, yeah, it's, it's always going to be
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: true that like, it's really hard to guess who's going
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 2: to have like the defensive touchdown and, and the really
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: good defensive performance. Like who, who thought last week, the
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: Carolina defense would score like 25 fantasy points or something, right?
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: Like nobody did that. It, it is chaotic, but, there
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: are general trends.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: And one of the clear general trends is that, Hey,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: you know, who's more likely to get a 20 point performance,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: expensive defenses, you know, who's more likely to be 5%
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: owned when they do give you a 20% performance, expensive defenses. So, uh, it,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: I do think it's a, it's a really smart, um,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: leverage lane. And I like the uniqueness of it. And
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: it's also just like in general, I think a good
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: strategy overall.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: I want to tie it to that. I'm glad you
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: said that because it's kind of like the don't use
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: running back at flex last week was the real theme
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: of what you were saying. You were saying wide receiver
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: and giving the percentages off of that. But the real
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: concept or the theme of it was running back is
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: going to be insanely high at flex last week. And
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: there was no running backs in sight in flex. I'm
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: saying it's to your point. There's still high, high variance.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: It's still hard to get it right. I'm saying, I
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: think it's doing multiple things. things for you in your builds.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: And it's giving you a setup where you're saying, okay,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: find out what that pool is for you. But the
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: pay up D is going to force you down from
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: some studs to some mid tiers to some game stacks
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: that can really flow together where you're getting it from
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: the game stack output and not just from the, well,
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: I got this guy from this team and this guy's like,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about those spots and then still correlating it,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: but I'm still putting it together with a theme of
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: pay up at defense and then pick your pool, let
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: them fall into place.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: All right, my leverage lane. Let's bring the conditional ownership
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: tool back up. My leverage lane is going to be
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: pairing stud wide receivers together. And the reason for this
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: is because we can get some really, really nice conditional ownerships,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: combinatorial ownerships. So if I start with Amon Rossi and
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: Brown here, I want you to just notice what happens
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: to some of the other conditional ownerships around this price point.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: And so first and foremost, like, Yeah, there is a
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: pricing element here. As soon as you click a $ 7, 900
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: wide receiver, it's harder to get anybody else in the
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: upper 7K, 8K range. So all of these conditional ownerships
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: are going to go down. But look, Gibbs goes from
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: 34 to 25. We get McCaffrey from 12 to 8.
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: We get Derrick Henry from 14 to 12.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: Those are small movements, right? Jonathan Taylor, 9.4 to 8.5.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: CeeDee Lamb goes from 14% to 4%.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: Lamb is more popular than Jonathan Taylor, but within Amon
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: Ross St. Brown lineups, CD lamb is half as owned
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: as Jonathan Taylor. And this is a pretty steady theme,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: regardless of which stud wide receiver you start with. The
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: wide receiver pairings are just significantly lower on another way.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: We can look at this. So if we start with
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: Amon Ross St.
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: Brown and then click CD lamb, look at this matching
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: field lineups, 1% conditional ownership or combinatorial ownership.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: For Amon Ross St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: This combination is projected to be in 1% of all lineups. Conversely,
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: if we go Amon Ross St. Brown and Derrick Henry, 2.6%.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: That's a massive difference, right? That's 160% more likely to
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: be in.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: Amon Ross St. Brown's as Derrick Henry versus CeeDee Lamb.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: That's crazy, crazy powerful numbers. and this isn't something that's
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: being talked about around the industry. It's not something that's
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: being identified. So, uh, this is largely inspired by what
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: we saw last week where CD lamb was like 23% owned.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: He wasn't that contrarian. Jackson Smith and Jigba was 13% owned.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: He wasn't that contrarian. I even under projected Jackson Smith
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: and Jigba pretty significantly. I had him under 8% in my, uh,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: my high stakes ownership, but conditional ownership. I had JSN at,
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: two and a half percent in CD lamb lineups. He
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: came in at 3.8%. So even though I was wrong
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: about his overall ownership was pretty much dead on the
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: conditional ownership. And obviously like, if you had that pairing
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: last week, you.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: Were at the top of every single leaderboard.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: You could have totally screwed up the rest of your lineup.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: You still had a good week.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: Uh, this is really kind of screaming at me again
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: this week that we can find the exact same advantage. And, uh,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: there was one other thing I wanted to kind of
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: show with this, um, but let's, let's instead, Oh yeah, it's,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: it's this. So just from a, uh, an ownership perspective,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: like I'm a rise, 22% CD lamb is 14%. We
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: as an industry are actually pretty darn good at finding
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: the guys who are in good spots and, you know,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: being pretty efficient with ownership to the point that in general,
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: if you are able to play, uh, somewhat chalky players
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: and chalky players, they are more likely to succeed than
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: when you try to get really contrarian and go to
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: like a 7% Justin Jefferson. Well, actually, it's kind of
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: a bad example because I think Justin Jefferson is a
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: really good player this week. But typically speaking, if you're
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: able to play higher-owned guys in unique combinations, it's a much,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: much higher path or much higher probability of success for
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: the guys in your lineup. And yet here we have
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: an opportunity to do this in a way that turns
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 2: both of these guys into very, very, very real separators
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: because combined, they're only going to be in around 1%
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: of lineups. So I really love this leverage lane. I
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: think this conditional ownership tool is going to be extremely helpful.
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: And I can't wait to see what it does throughout
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: the rest of the season. And hopefully it pays some
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: immediate dividends with contrarian combinations of wide receivers. And last
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: point here is like, I used St. Brown and Lamb
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: as the main example here, but this is true of
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: any combination. If you like JSN, Chase, Jefferson, Olave, Pickens.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really matter. Anytime you use a, a stud
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: wide receiver, the conditional ownerships of the other stud wide
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: receivers around them are going to plummet. The only possible
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: exception there. is Pickens plus Lamb or Chase plus Higgins
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 2: because even though it is a lot harder for people
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 2: to make double stacks out of those teams, you're still
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: going to at least get.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: In line numbers.
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: With their overall ownership, with their conditional ownership. You're not
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: getting the same conditional ownership discount there, but it's still
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: a lot lower owned than like, you know, we were
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: looking at the conditional ownership of Bateman when Andrews was
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 2: already in it. It's way up because people are trying
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: to make that a double stack that works. You're not
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: getting that with, with the Dallas spot and the Cincinnati spot.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: So all of these guys, all of these combinations really,
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: really good. And, and I think I'm going to have
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: multiple lineups this week. And so what I may try
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: to do is just get, you know, if let's say
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: I'm running three lineups, I might try to go for
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: three different unique combinations of, upstart wide receivers and just
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: really make that like the thing that I built through
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: this week.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll say a couple of things just to
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: finalize because I love that. And this comment is correct,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: but also it doesn't mean you suffer overall. And it
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: was literally just last week when it's not even like chasing,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: it's just noting the facts of it. But it was
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: last week, you didn't end up suffering because it probably
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: means you didn't have Bijan and that was the lineups
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: that got to the top. So there's that. Also, my
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: point was, and part of my overconfidence, I started with Warren,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: moved it to a discussion around the position as a
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: whole and the concept, and then even gave Tootin as
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: an example. I'm just picking one. but I'm noting it
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: that I just rattled off your wind back. I rattled
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: off like seven or eight options that you could play
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: at running back this week that are not Gibbs or
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: Walker or the guys that are the most expensive on
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: this slate. So we have a way to do it.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: Game stacks almost always when I was talking earlier about
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: Taekwon Thornton, or you look at a guy like Bateman,
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: or we talked about Walker in that game, or we
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: talk about a lamb pickings. What about Flournoy? It's like,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: there's again, just people worry about it too much about
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: the play. if the play comes through that really boosted
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: even further, but these are all the concepts combined, being
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: able to play them in a lineup in a way
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: that puts you in the position to get to the
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: top and get lucky and have it go your way.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: But you gotta be building. Like we said, we're, we're
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: out building. We're not out picking. That's the difference. Yeah.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: So this comment is true. Um, that was on the
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: screen there.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: Like if you, if you go double sub wide receiver,
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: you do suffer running back, but that's not, that doesn't
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: make it any less impactful or any less viable because
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: it's true anything. If you use Gibbs, you suffer everywhere
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: else in your lineup. That doesn't mean that Gibbs isn't
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: worthwhile because Gibbs can really elevate you, right? So it's
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 2: just about like, does it make you suffer more than
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: what that unique combination can be worth? And the answer
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: there to me is like very clearly no. And the
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: other point there is like, even though the running back
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: pricing did go up in kind of a weird way,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: we're like, now, you know, last week we had some,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: some viable guys that like 5,100, 5,500, and now it's 57, 59, 61,
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: where you first see chalk, but like, there are still
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: cheap options, right? They're still saving you $ 2, 500 from Jameer
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: Gibbs and from Christian McCaffrey. So there are also ways
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: to save at the position. And then I'll also throw
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: out a very fun $ 4, 400, 1% owned Emmett Johnson and
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: maybe you get a blowout there and maybe Emma Johnson
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: cleans up and gives you like 12 draft Kings points.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: And if we get a slight, like last week from
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: running back scoring, like that would be an extremely valuable
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: score at 1%, especially if you pair it with, with
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: some wide receiver combination. So I think that's the other
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: thing is like, yes, you do suffer at running back,
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: but what does suffering at running back mean from like
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: a point differential? If you can get, yeah, if you
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: can get 20 from Hubbard, are you really suffering? If
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: that means you didn't get the 30 points from Gibbs,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: probably not like that's okay.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 2: If, if JSN against a very bad Washington secondary, by
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: the way, puts up 35 and, you know, saving $ 2, 500
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: of JSN, otherwise means you could have gotten a receiver
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: who got like 13.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: Like that's, that's a.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: Way larger separation than what you'd get from the same
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: price difference at running back. And so it's, it's another
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: reason why I think this makes a lot of sense.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah. It's a factual statement at the start of a
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: slate that has nothing to do with the end and
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: a result. It's not a net. It's not a negative
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: or a knock on the person that made the comment.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: It's a fact. Like you said, the comment is a fact,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: but so is double running back. You suffer a wide receiver,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: literally just flipping the comment. So that's my point. It's like,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: you don't know until you know, but if you want
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: to like use recency bias, like everyone does for everything
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: else that like just last week, you suffered at running
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: back that you could get into your lineup. But your
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: lineup didn't suffer as a result. It actually was better
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: at the end of the week because you didn't need
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: Bijan or any of that stuff, really. And even Henry
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: had 17 or something as like the other popular payouts.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: So it's not like that crazy. And then the other
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: thing is just in general, build accordingly, put yourself in
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: the position. I think we did a really good job today.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: Hopefully everybody thinks that we did a good job of
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: tying it all together. to see how you can use
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: these numbers because the separation is also what makes it valuable.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: And these tournaments, I don't know last time you checked,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: but I just checked again.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: Yep.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: They're still very top heavy. And so you want to
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: be able to separate and get yourself to the top.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: We're talking, we're trying to win a million dollars, a
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars, 50,000, a hundred dollars, single entry with
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: a hundred grand up top, 50 grand up top. I mean,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: that's where you can do it a hundred bucks. There's
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: $ 25 single entries with 10,000 and 33. Like there's just
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: so many tournaments, regardless of your bankroll. All of these
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: concepts can apply. So hopefully helpful for you guys. If
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: you want to check out Blick Analytics, go there, use
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: the code TAMBO. Make sure to support Blickle, help him out.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: If you guys want to go to shipitnation.com, the promos
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: are at the top of the site. I'll remove this,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: add this back. You can get the early bird special still,
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: or you just click join the nation. Takes you right
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: down any all access, even the content only. or any
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: single sport NFL with monthly doesn't matter Saber Sim or not.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: We'll get you into ship it games. You see it
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: there at the top. That's where we're giving away over $ 45, 000
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: in cash and prizes for the season to our community.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: Most people not giving even a dollar back. So we
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: always note that just to make sure, you know, we
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: are giving that back every all access and NFL only
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: member you can get in. There's been six winners already.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: And then on top of that, the winning prize at
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: the end of the season will be 10,000 cash minimum, 5,000, 2,500.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: Nobody in the top 10 of 50 will leave with
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: less than $ 1, 000 there. So check out shipitnation.com. If you
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: guys have anything else, let us know in the comments.
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: Appreciate you guys for watching. Thanks so much for Alex,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: for myself, Totek, and Tambo. Good luck in your contest
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: this week. Let's ship it!