Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 24 February 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Last Chance: Why I’m Buying the Dip + Stock Market News 24 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: After a Friday of horror and misery, it looks like we're going to have a Monday of delight and sunshine.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through why.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand what really happened here on Friday and the key things we really get to grips with today to make you the best out there.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: That's always my goal, so I'm going to run you through.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: There is this big story out there about Microsoft cancelling AI investments in the US, and it's got the whole AI sector up in arms.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Also, inflation is it really going up?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: That was one of the key things that knocked us out on Friday.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What the Fed will do next, what is going to end the Tesla stock crash there was a big move down there on Friday and what Wall Street has just sold.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about the big funds or the big institutions.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: They've sold something and what that means for us.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: And then also tariffs, because Trump today announced a load of stuff with relations to China and there's going to be European tariffs and everything else coming up.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: How is that actually going to affect your portfolio?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: If you want to know those six things and be the best informed investor out there, say I do in the chat.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I won't accept it as an offer of sort of matrimony, if that's what you're thinking.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, put I do in the chat if you want to understand this and you want to really make this an amazing week, because I think this is a fantastic opportunity here.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: How do you see where it's searched in Trade Vision?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I think you have to open the visualizer.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Actually, I kind of feel also it's disappeared right over the weekend.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: I couldn't find it either.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I'm a small space there.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Okay, I do, I do, I do-be-do-be-do, okay, fantastic.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So let's walk you through it.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Brilliant Love you guys being awake.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Let's start off, then, with Bill's little plaything.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Well, pd came out with this that channel checks indicate US data center lease cancellations are happening by Microsoft.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So the great microsoft apparently canceling leases of a couple of hundred megawatts, with at least two private data center operators pulled back the conversion of some leases as reallocation and so on.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So everyone's going oh my god, microsoft doesn't want, hasn't got the demand.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: They're going to stop buying nvidia chips.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: The whole ai rally is over, finished, done, kaput.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Of course, nonsense, right, it's just some.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: You know, three brain-celled analysts which would make him smarter than most analysts.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Quite frankly, he put this together and scared the bejesus out of everybody.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: So what's it actually about?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Well, microsoft and OpenAI had an exclusivity agreement.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So OpenAI and Microsoft were MSFT, they were married, so to speak and that's what the sort of symbol is meant to say and they were exclusive.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: They were not seeing other people.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Now this has changed and OpenAI said I'd like to see other people I'm not quite sure what gender, but I'd like to see other people.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: They're doing that.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So this is no longer an exclusive agreement where Microsoft is no longer the sole provider of compute power to OpenAI.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Now why is that a smart move by Microsoft?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Microsoft has probably one of the smartest CEOs out there and what he's realized is he could put all of his compute power, all of his capacity, and give it all to OpenAI and hope that OpenAI is the company that cracks artificial intelligence like real intelligence first, or they could actually just make money, and Microsoft is very, very good at making money out of fairly average products.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So Microsoft is instead refocusing its efforts.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Microsoft powers this Blackboard, which just crashed.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Do you see that?
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: They said stop talking bad about us and they're going to refocus their efforts and just offer inference computing, how it's called, which is not about becoming the smartest AI LLM, it's about just providing compute power to your customers, which is where the money is at.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: So that's what they're doing now.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: This is the only thing it is.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Microsoft is still spending this year I think last year it was.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I think two years ago, I think it was 45 billion, I think last year it was 60 billion I could be slightly off on those numbers and next year this year it is going to be 80 billion on AI hardware investment.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: It's not like they're really scaling down.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: It's a massive, whopping amount of money.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So the story is kind of noise and therefore could make it a nice opportunity for us.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I would say now, speaking of opportunities, if you actually wanted to know what to buy and when to buy it, like I see people here saying should I buy grok now?
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Should I buy palantir?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: You know this is up and this is down.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: What do I do?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing it in the chat here.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Even gold it.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: They're the same rules that apply to stocks, apply to futures, apply to gold, apply to tech stocks like palantir.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: They apply the same way to etfs or anything else you ever want to invest in.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: It's the same rules that wall street the most successful wall street traders out there have been using for decades, but they haven't given them to you.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Why not?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Because you don't work for them.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: They only typically give this to people who work for them so that they make them more money and make sure they get bigger bonuses.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: That's how Wall Street's driven right.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: But I give it to you.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: I'm just literally going to give it to you, but you have to do something.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: You have to literally sit down for 15 minutes, listen, take notes and then implement it, and the tens of thousands of you who already seen it send me thousands of beautiful messages, which is amazing.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: So are you going to do that?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Are you going to go to felixfrenzorg to get yourself free and watch the masterclass, either right now or straight after this video?
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Because if you say I'm going to do it tomorrow or on the weekend or next week, it's sometime, and sometime is when.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: That's the rule.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: If you're going to go and watch the master class, right, get free in the chat.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So I see that you are alive and that you're making a commitment, and it makes it much, much more likely that you'll actually, which means you get much, much more likely to have a brilliant 2025.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: So check it out, get free, it's a 15 minute master class.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: The link is also down below uh, in the description for those of you who can't yet type.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Okay, then what about the inflation story on Friday?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Wasn't everybody saying inflation is going to go higher?
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: King, now, brilliant John in Latin is also acceptable, Zupito.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: He says Show off, bradley and Gannon are going to watch it.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, garden therapy you already have.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Jinx says thanks for the masterclass.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, that's not French.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Palantir has shat the bed, have they?
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Is that the French you were looking for?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: All right, so we'll talk about Palantir in a second.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I'm very happy to circle back to that.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the big headline story on Friday that tanked the market.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Umist, university of Michigan, used to have this gang of geriatric, clipboard-wielding Muppets who'd run around and say excuse me, sir, do you think inflation is going to go up or down in the next five years?
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: And then you'd say I don't know up.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: That was sort of what they did and that was actually reasonably accurate.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: But they realized they Actually they didn't do that.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: They called people.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Now they realized nobody picks up the phone anymore.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: When people call me, I go that's probably spam, I'm going to block you.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Literally nobody calls me, nobody, no friends.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: People message you nowadays, don't they?
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: They say, hey, do you want to chat?
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: So they stopped doing the phone calls, so no more calls.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And what they've done instead is they've done an online form.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Now have you ever gone to a website where there is an online form with 50 questions 50.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: How many of you would fill that out and complete it?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I mean be honest, would you fill out a form with 50 questions?
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: There's no reward, by the way.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: There's no payment, there's nothing, there isn't even a cookie at the end of this.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: No, you wouldn't.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Who fills this in?
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a certain subsector of society that is disgruntled, possibly unemployed, maybe retired, just has got nothing else to do but to tell the world that there is lots wrong with the world.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: They are the people who fill in those forms.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Now there's one question on the humist form, which says have you been receiving unsolicited mentions on news about government, economic policy, positive or negative news?
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: So unsolicited would mean in the radio, which is probably what those people listen to.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I think one with radio, but you know what I'm talking about.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Or television, you know sort of the CNN type thing, right?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the chart here, there is a white line, which I'm going to point to with this yellow arrow, which is unfavorable news.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So, basically, these people are sitting there and they're watching cnn.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: We're saying this government is the worst, they're all nazis, they're all gonna kill us.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Right, and and maybe you agree with that, maybe you don't, but that's what happened here is that those people are the ones who fill in this form, and then they will say the economy is going to tank and inflation is going to go high up, because that's what cnn told them.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: So the humest michigan surveys that we used to listen to are garbage, so don't pay any attention.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Got nothing to do with reality.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: It didn't ask anybody who had any real insight, they just asked a bunch of disgruntled people, right?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So, whereas my grandma well you know got blessed, and so no tiktoker would do that, no, exactly, they'd be like I'm sorry, that's one of the one questions we're talking about.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: You don't keep scrolling.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So yeah, of course it's a funny lot, so ignore that.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Basically, now there is also a rule out there which has been true for about 100 years the Fed is always late.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: It cuts deeper than we think, so it cuts interest rates lower than it needs to, and it does it every single time.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Now the inflation data we had last week and I do want to get to Palantir and Tesla and all those things just in a second here.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: You know, yeah, felix, and friends, no friends.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Exactly the irony here.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Well, I have Winston and maybe you, any friends out there.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Anybody wants to be friends.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So it's just in all seriousness, one of the reasons I love doing this is because normally I do all this research and I'd sit in front of a screen on my own.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Now I've got a bunch of friends who are bankers.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: But he wants to talk to them.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Let's be honest.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: So it's actually a social thing for me.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: I very much enjoy this.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: So inflation data came in and it was all shelter and rent growth has actually collapsed.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Shelter.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Inflation data is 12 months late.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Again, the inflation data out.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: There is old news, it's about a year old.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So the Fed's going to do what?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: They're going to wait a little bit and then they're going to cut pretty, pretty harshly, I think.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to get more, more, more, more, more cuts than people expect and, as I say, a real-time policy mistake is upon us.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: The Fed will cut more than Wall Street expects.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: And who's that going to be good for?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: X-tox will do really really well.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Um, linda, you enjoyed the stupor.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Linda makes two of us.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Um, soya, soya, soya, right, so you pronounce that.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Um, very smart guy, follow him on on x I.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: I would you want to know about tesla.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: He, he's your man.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: He seems to be permanently attached to like elon's hip or something.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: And he's got this here and he he's saying you know, tesla is putting out an affordable model right, model Q.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Is it Q?
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: This is Q right.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: The most difficult part of doing that is not making the cars worse to the promise that they won't be a massive step down from the cars we sell today.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: And he's saying preparations are underway across our existing factories for the launch of new products in 2025, including more affordable models.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: The new Model Y is launched on the configurator globally.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Production ramp delivery is beginning later in Q1.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: So what's going on here?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Well, tesla is launching a cheap Tesla in the next quarter.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Tesla is launching a robo-taxi in the next quarter.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Before the end of the year, tesla is going to put out robots.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So why are people bearish on this?
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Well, it's again max.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Bad news, right, mike?
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I thought, friends included all the people involved in the Great Academy.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's of course the intention.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: It's the intention that it's a lovely community.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: So I joke, I say a lot of things in in jest, so, um, you know, that's, that's.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: That's a thing.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Apparently, a german who learns a sense of humor took about 10 years.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: So why is everybody so bearish on tesla?
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Well, because everybody at the moment hates elon.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the popular mainstream thing.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: We were there before I can't remember when that was, but 10 years back everybody hated Elon too, and I kind of feel like we're at a point where the Elon hate is probably about maximum, and I think over the next few months we're going to start to see some benefits from all the waste and corruption being cut and all the government employees being fired that nobody needed.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: And, by the way, I have sympathy for people getting fired.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: But what's going on in mainstream media is absurd.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: It's like this oh my God, like I feel so bad for them.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Well, hsbc, the investment bank, just fired 70% of their investment bankers like that.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Anybody cry over those?
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: No, of course not.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: That happens every day in banks and big corporations.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Like thousands of people get fired every day and it's not nice, it isn't, but it's the reality of business.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: It's how those businesses survive, it's how they thrive.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Government hasn't done that in like 100 years and I think it's a very good thing what they're doing on that front, because, well, your taxpayers money right, a little bit of mine, very, very little, and so I think people are going to start to see that at some point.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: It might take six, like a year, but at some point I think there will be a benefit from it.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: And and if you just think purely selfishly and you can remove yourself from whatever politics you you believe in, less debt, right, that should be the outcome.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: So less debt means one thing, and one thing only it means lower interest rates.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Lower interest rates mean what?
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Higher stock prices.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: So if you want to look at this purely as a selfish activity, then you should be in favor of the government spending less.