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El-Sayed Win Fuels Progressives · Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: That headline out of Iranian media that says Iran is
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Speaker 2: saying that the new Hormus roots will be valid for
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Speaker 2: two to four months, so only a temporary period of time.
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Speaker 2: Iran also saying that this new deal with Oman will
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Speaker 2: close temporary Horror Mews shipping route. So this is not
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Speaker 2: abundantly clear if this is exclusively a deal between Iran
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Speaker 2: and Oman to open more passageways in the straight of
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Speaker 2: horror moves to commercial traffic, or if there is to
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Speaker 2: be some role that the United States will play in this.
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Speaker 2: As you've mentioned, Joe, that is what President Trump suggested.
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Speaker 2: It's just not what we're hearing from the other side.
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Speaker 3: Well, that's right, you consider his language of yesterday. Talks
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Speaker 3: are moving along very nicely US and Iran. He said, well,
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Speaker 3: no in forty eight hours. Then Axios says it could
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Speaker 3: come as soon as today, but that is apparently a
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Speaker 3: deal to control traffic in the Strait between Iran and Oman.
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Speaker 3: It is unclear where the US factors in here. Maybe
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Speaker 3: Kate Sullivan can help us out as we bring you
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Speaker 3: live to the White House right now. Kate is our
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Speaker 3: White House correspondent live on the north lawn. Can you
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Speaker 3: shed some light on this, Kate. We're waiting for an
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Speaker 3: announcement on an agreement, but with whom.
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Speaker 4: There are a lot of questions, as you just pointed out,
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Speaker 4: But the President is saying that a deal could be
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Speaker 4: announced as soon as today. Now this would be a
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Speaker 4: temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Woe. Moves and
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Speaker 4: Axios is saying that it would be a sixty day
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Speaker 4: agreement that would focus on reopening this strait, allowing ships
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Speaker 4: to pass through.
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Speaker 5: As you mentioned that different lanes.
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Speaker 4: One would be controlled by Oman, another would go on
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Speaker 4: Iran's border. There are still a lot of questions, and
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Speaker 4: this deal would reportedly also look at resuming the ceasefire
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Speaker 4: between the US and Iran. It also would reportedly meet
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Speaker 4: some of Iran's demands and give them greater control over
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Speaker 4: the strait. That's a very critical point because before the
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Speaker 4: US and Israel started this war. This was a completely
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Speaker 4: open international waterway. It was not controlled by any one country.
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Speaker 4: Iran did not have control over the strait like they
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Speaker 4: will reportedly under this new deal. When negotiations are still ongoing.
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Speaker 4: The President is saying that it could have come as
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Speaker 4: soon as today, but also saying, as you pointed out,
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Speaker 4: that will know more in the next forty eight hours,
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Speaker 4: so suggesting that details are still being worked out. The
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Speaker 4: situation is still fluid. Negotiations are still ongoing. I think
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Speaker 4: it's also important to note what this deal is not,
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Speaker 4: and it is not a broad lasting peace agreement.
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Speaker 5: It does not end the war. It's not a nuclear
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Speaker 5: deal with Iran.
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Speaker 4: And on the nuclear point, that point is very important
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Speaker 4: because this is why the President said he started this
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Speaker 4: war with Iran in the first place, to make sure
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Speaker 4: that Iran did not get a nuclear weapon. So this
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Speaker 4: deal is not focused on Iran's nuclear deal, though it
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Speaker 4: could start. It could create the conditions to start negotiations
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Speaker 4: on this nuclear deal, but this is very narrowly focused
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Speaker 4: right now on reopening the Strait of horr Moves and
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Speaker 4: of course, Joe and Kayley we've seen many times over
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Speaker 4: the last six months that a deal has been reached
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Speaker 4: or a deal has been imminent, only for talks to fall.
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Speaker 5: Apart and strikes to resume.
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Speaker 2: Yep, there is a pattern here of the President projecting
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Speaker 2: and claiming one thing and it not coming to fruition.
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Speaker 2: Just to see always, as you were alluding to, Kate
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Speaker 2: consistently says iron can never have a nuclear weapon. I
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Speaker 2: would imagine we'll hear much the same from him this
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Speaker 2: evening or this afternoon when he speaks in Nevada. What
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Speaker 2: else are we expecting him to focus on?
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Speaker 4: That's right, So the President is expected to give remarks
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Speaker 4: in just a few hours in Las Vegas. It's part
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Speaker 4: of this two day swing in California and Nevada. The
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Speaker 4: White House says that the President is going to focus
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Speaker 4: on the economy and try to and focus on tax
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Speaker 4: policies and trying to draw a contrast between his administration's
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Speaker 4: policies and Democrats.
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Speaker 5: But of course it's the president.
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Speaker 4: And the speech could end up could end up going
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Speaker 4: any which way. We'll see if we get a deal,
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Speaker 4: some kind of a deal with Iran, and if the
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Speaker 4: President speaks specifically on Iran.
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Speaker 5: But one thing about Las Vegas.
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Speaker 4: I remember I was at the rally a few years
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Speaker 4: ago where the President unveiled this proposal for no tax
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Speaker 4: on tips. It's something that he talks about a lot.
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Speaker 4: Of course, he talks about his tax policies, and I
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Speaker 4: expect to hear more from him touting no tax on tips.
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Speaker 4: But this swing out in the West is really focused
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Speaker 4: is partly on fundraising and also on shoring up support
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Speaker 4: with voters, with Republicans, people who are feeling a lot
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Speaker 4: of economic anxiety at the moment, really feeling the ripple
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Speaker 4: effects from the war, the high gas prices, high grocery prices.
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Speaker 4: So this trip is also focused, of course on the
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Speaker 4: critical November midterm elections and trying to really boost support
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Speaker 4: ahead of.
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Speaker 3: Those gallan of gas in the state of Nevada is
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Speaker 3: four dollars and eighty cents. Kate in California, where the
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Speaker 3: President was last evening and waking up this morning, five
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Speaker 3: dollars and sixty three cents a gown. We know California
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Speaker 3: is an outlier. The national average, though, is still over
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Speaker 3: four dollars. Well, the President speak to this side of affordability.
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Speaker 3: I know he doesn't like that word, but while he's
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Speaker 3: talking about no tax on tips gas prices are essentially
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Speaker 3: making that irrelevant because we're putting all of the proceeds
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Speaker 3: in the gas tank.
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Speaker 4: Absolutely, it's definitely something that is harder and harder for
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Speaker 4: the President and the White House to ignore. The President
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Speaker 4: when he talks about affordability, he talks about it as
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Speaker 4: a sort of made up thing that the Democrats are
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Speaker 4: focused on in their messaging, while also trying to you know,
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Speaker 4: we've reported many times over the last several months that
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Speaker 4: the White House is very eager to really shift the
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Speaker 4: focus and focus on affordability. Well, they want to shift
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Speaker 4: the focus away from the war in Iran and try
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Speaker 4: to really hammer home messages on the economy, on trying
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Speaker 4: to make people's lives more affordable and trying to bring
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Speaker 4: prices down and bring inflation down. So we don't have
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Speaker 4: a readout of speech yet, but there are of course
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Speaker 4: the contours of the speech that we can imagine just
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Speaker 4: heading into the November midterm elections, and the kind of
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Speaker 4: points we know, the kind of points that the White
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Speaker 4: House hopes the President focuses on. We will see whether
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Speaker 4: the President really focuses on that very disciplined economic message
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Speaker 4: out there.
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Speaker 2: Indeed, we will all right, Kate Sullivan reporting live from
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Speaker 2: the north lawn of the White House. Thank you so much.
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Speaker 2: Of course, as we mentioned a few minutes ago, something
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Speaker 2: else we could hear from the President about this evening,
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Speaker 2: as the results from the primary in Michigan, the Democratic
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Speaker 2: senatorial primary specifically, which was a very tight race between
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Speaker 2: abdull I'll say it and Congressoman Haley Stevens. In the end,
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Speaker 2: it wasn't necessarily expected to be and yet it wasn't
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Speaker 2: formally called by most outlets until this morning. As of
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Speaker 2: last night, they were still waiting, and this was their messaging.
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Speaker 6: We knew that this was going to be a close race,
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Speaker 6: and that's exactly what we've got.
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Speaker 7: Hell race to.
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Speaker 8: All of our supporters here tonight, watching on TV.
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Speaker 3: Tomorrow, we begin.
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Speaker 8: To mend fences. Whatever happens tonight, we have a responsibility
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Speaker 8: to assure that we unite to make sure that Mike
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Speaker 8: Rogers never sees the inside of the US Senate.
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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump, calling abdul al said, whose voice you
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Speaker 2: just heard last? The victor in this a communist loser
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Speaker 2: who hates Jews in Israel said, as usual, polls were
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Speaker 2: way off on this one, she referring to Haley Stevens,
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Speaker 2: who he called a socialist in this post, was not
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Speaker 2: expected to do nearly as well as she did. Now
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Speaker 2: the Democrats' crazy policies will only get worse. So joining
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Speaker 2: us now with more reaction to this is Laura Brown,
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Speaker 2: political scientist and also author of the forthcoming book Jefferson's
7:53
Speaker 2: Landmark Deal, The Politics of the Louisiana Purchase. Laura, welcome
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Speaker 2: back to Balance of Power. We should point out that
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Speaker 2: Haley Stevens is not a socialist, and Abdoula Sayah is
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Speaker 2: not a communist, though he is notably further left than
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Speaker 2: Stevens was, and he's now going to be the general
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Speaker 2: election candidate. How steep is his uphill climb if he
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Speaker 2: wants to beat Mike Rogers.
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Speaker 9: Well, I think there's an over emphasis on sort of
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Speaker 9: the difference between these candidates and what the fall campaign
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Speaker 9: is going to shape up to be about, because at
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Speaker 9: the end of the day, what we have is a
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Speaker 9: president with historically poor approval ratings, and there is a
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Speaker 9: high disapproval level in Michigan, and so it's going to
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Speaker 9: be a race really between the Democratic senatorial candidate and
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Speaker 9: the Republican senatorial candidate. It is not necessarily going to
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Speaker 9: be a discussion about the finite policy differences within or
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Speaker 9: among Democrats. And let me just say, sort of at
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Speaker 9: the outset, we are in a completely normal cycle. When
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Speaker 9: parties lose a presidency, they spend the next midterm cycle
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Speaker 9: essentially having factional disputes and contests where their different ideological
9:18
Speaker 9: wings are looking to gain prominence. And what you'll see
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Speaker 9: is that this debate over which direction the Democratic Party
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Speaker 9: goes in won't be settled until they choose a presidential
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Speaker 9: nominee in twenty twenty eight.
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Speaker 3: Well, so who's leading in that internal contest? Larah Brown?
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Speaker 3: We see William Lawrence last evening, founder of the Sunrise Movement,
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Speaker 3: defeating two moderate candidates. This still in Michigan. This is
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Speaker 3: the seventh district to compete with Congressman Tom Barrett in
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Speaker 3: the general election. Then again we saw a representative Wesley
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Speaker 3: Bell beat Corey Bush. Again, is there actually a narrative
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Speaker 3: here or is this something actually is trying to connect
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Speaker 3: the dots on I actually don't think.
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Speaker 7: There is a narrative.
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Speaker 9: I think what we are going to see is a
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Speaker 9: lot of candidates appealing to local concerns and the one
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Speaker 9: major concern out there is the economy and people are
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Speaker 9: feeling the pinch.
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Speaker 7: Of higher gas prices, they are.
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Speaker 9: Displeased with the inflation rate.
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Speaker 5: You also have the issue of.
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Speaker 9: The war, and certainly for those in Michigan, tariffs on
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Speaker 9: Canada have been a blow to their economy. So there
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Speaker 9: are a lot of reasons to reject essentially the president's
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Speaker 9: party and his candidates.
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Speaker 7: You also have a gubernatorial.
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Speaker 9: Candidate in Joscelyn Benson, who won a very large Democratic
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Speaker 9: primary race, and she is going to be sort of
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Speaker 9: campaigning statewide at the same time that el sayad is
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Speaker 9: and I think what you'll see is how much they
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Speaker 9: are able to galvanize the Michigan Democratic Party and those
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Speaker 9: independents displeased with the Trump administration to push them over
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Speaker 9: the top.
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Speaker 2: Well, so when we consider where those independents are going
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Speaker 2: to go, Laura, I wonder how you view the available
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Speaker 2: share of votes. This is a conversation we were having
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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four as well. How is it shaping
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Speaker 2: up in twenty twenty six as we consider the ultimate
11:37
Speaker 2: balance of congressional power.
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Speaker 9: Well, I think what we have to do is look
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Speaker 9: back at an analog two thousand and six looks a
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Speaker 9: lot like what we are seeing. A historically unpopular president
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Speaker 9: and unpopular war, issues of personal scandals and also public corruption.
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Speaker 9: All of those things are kind of combining to have
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Speaker 9: the Democrats with a solid, you know, a north of
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Speaker 9: six percentage point advantage on the generic ballot and a
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Speaker 9: very large disapproval rating of the president, which puts him
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Speaker 9: on the ballot even though he is not.
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Speaker 3: I'd like to ask you about something that's taking place
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Speaker 3: here in Washington among members already elected. We heard from
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Speaker 3: Chuck Edwards in the middle of the night. Learra Is
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Speaker 3: about three point thirty in the morning, the Republican from
12:36
Speaker 3: North Carolina announcing he's dropping his reelection bid following a
12:39
Speaker 3: House Ethics Committee report that recommended he be censured. There's
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Speaker 3: still a huge question over Max Miller, and I'm wondering
12:47
Speaker 3: your thoughts on this because the Congressman is pointing to
12:51
Speaker 3: Speaker Johnson and the President saying, nobody's asked me to
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Speaker 3: bow out over what are very serious domestic abuse allegations.
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Speaker 3: We know that the Speaker has a very thin margin
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Speaker 3: to protect, but I'm wondering your thoughts on how this
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Speaker 3: might resolve. Does Max Miller need to step down on
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Speaker 3: his own or be forced out.
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Speaker 9: So, having written both a dissertation on congressional scandals and
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Speaker 9: published subsequently on sex scandals, I can tell you that
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Speaker 9: really what is happening and what has always happened, is
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Speaker 9: that partisans rally around their tainted member, and it's very
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Speaker 9: rare that they push them out. And the only time
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Speaker 9: that they really do is when they think that that
13:40
Speaker 9: reputational taint will in fact sort of infect the rest
13:46
Speaker 9: of the party brand.
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Speaker 10: So the real question.
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Speaker 9: Is how high a profile do these allegations against Max
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Speaker 9: Miller continue to become, and whether or not Johnson feels
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Speaker 9: that it is now important for him to distance his
14:06
Speaker 9: conference from this representative. We saw this obviously with the
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Speaker 9: Democrats with issues that they had, So it is a
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Speaker 9: question of how bad does it look, not necessarily how
14:23
Speaker 9: bad are the allegations.
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Speaker 2: It's also striking to consider that it's not just about
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Speaker 2: his House seat or the House there's also a gubernatorial
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Speaker 2: race and a Senate race in Ohio in which Republicans
14:36
Speaker 2: may be concerned about the blowback as what, yeah.
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Speaker 11: That's right, and just going back to two thousand and six, Yeah,
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Speaker 11: thirty seconds, sure, If you look at two thousand and six,
14:46
Speaker 11: we saw both Tom Delay and Bob Nay run for
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Speaker 11: their primaries, win their primaries, and then resign before the
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Speaker 11: general elections.
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Speaker 7: Because both had corruption issues with them.
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Speaker 3: Law is Jack Abrama, Tom Delay Reference. We're hitting it
15:03
Speaker 3: all today, Lada Brown, thank you so much. It's great
15:06
Speaker 3: to see if political scientists the book again. Jefferson's landmark deal.
15:10
Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
15:13
Speaker 3: more coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: Thank you all for joining us on Bloomberg TV and
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Speaker 2: Radio for this Wednesday edition of Balance of Power. It's
15:41
Speaker 2: also the day after edition of Tuesday's primaries, and in
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Speaker 2: Michigan specifically, where so many people were focused for a
15:47
Speaker 2: directional queue as to where the Democratic Party is going
15:50
Speaker 2: in this midterm cycle and beyond. It's unclear whether they
15:53
Speaker 2: got a clear narrative in the outcome of the Michigan
15:56
Speaker 2: senatorial primary, because yes, Abdul, I'll say it, who, of
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Speaker 2: course is the more progressive candidate who was in the race,
16:02
Speaker 2: did best to the Congresswoman Haley steven Stein as more
16:06
Speaker 2: of a moderate, but it was tight. We're talking about
16:08
Speaker 2: a one percent difference as the votes were all counted.
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Speaker 2: I'll say it, of course, being more progressive being described
16:15
Speaker 2: by President Trump today as a communist, which he is not.
16:17
Speaker 2: But he did run on a very consistent message if
16:21
Speaker 2: you're not like us here in balance of power, having
16:22
Speaker 2: to listen to all the politics podcasts and having to
16:26
Speaker 2: watch all the advertisements, he basically said three things over
16:29
Speaker 2: and over and over again, money out of politics, money
16:32
Speaker 2: in your pocket, Medicare for all. And he actually joined
16:36
Speaker 2: this program last year. It was May twenty twenty five,
16:39
Speaker 2: in which he talked about that notion of getting money
16:41
Speaker 2: out of politics and getting corporate contributions out of politics, specifically.
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Speaker 12: Listen, the big difference with me is just that I
16:50
Speaker 12: don't take corporate contributions for a reason, because I think
16:52
Speaker 12: that Donald Trump is actually just the symptom of a
16:55
Speaker 12: far bigger disease, and that disease is the politics that
16:57
Speaker 12: have been dominated by corporate interests and frankly the interests
17:01
Speaker 12: of billionaires, and I think that has led us to
17:04
Speaker 12: a system where the economy doesn't work for working people,
17:07
Speaker 12: where we can't guarantee people healthcare, where our air, water,
17:10
Speaker 12: and soil get corrupted by the interests of a few, very,
17:14
Speaker 12: very large corporations.
17:15
Speaker 3: I think we can do better. Indeed, more than fifty
17:19
Speaker 3: million dollars was spent on behalf of Haley Stevens in
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Speaker 3: this campaign. APAC put up a lot of that money,
17:25
Speaker 3: as did the establishment Democratic Party here in Washington. We
17:31
Speaker 3: assembled our political panel to do some forensic investigating on
17:36
Speaker 3: how this all happened and why it was so close.
17:39
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us.
17:43
Speaker 3: Genie is our Democratic analyst democracy visiting fellow at Harvard
17:47
Speaker 3: Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is a partner at stone
17:50
Speaker 3: Court Capital and our republican strategist. And Genie, I'll start
17:54
Speaker 3: with you here your thoughts on this. If you read
17:56
Speaker 3: the tip sheets this morning, you can find a couple
17:59
Speaker 3: saying this was a huge night for progressives in the
18:02
Speaker 3: state of Michigan and around the country. Others said it
18:05
Speaker 3: was a terrible night because he only won by one point.
18:07
Speaker 3: How should we be looking at this?
18:10
Speaker 6: Yeah, And I think a lot of that had to
18:12
Speaker 6: do with expectations, you know. And I say this with
18:16
Speaker 6: a lot of love to all my friends who are posters.
18:18
Speaker 7: I'm a poster myself.
18:19
Speaker 6: But the polls by and large were way way off,
18:24
Speaker 6: I mean showing huge double digit leads for l Saied,
18:27
Speaker 6: and of course it was nothing like that, and we
18:30
Speaker 6: didn't even know till this morning who had been named
18:33
Speaker 6: the winner. So, you know, I think a lot of
18:35
Speaker 6: that had to do with expectations, because if we take
18:39
Speaker 6: a step back and last year, when he was on
18:42
Speaker 6: balance of power and he was talking, I think none
18:45
Speaker 6: of us would have said that he would have had
18:48
Speaker 6: a chance to become the nominee of the Democratic Party
18:52
Speaker 6: in Michigan, given how progressive he has been described and
18:57
Speaker 6: how progressive he describes himself. So this is a big
19:01
Speaker 6: win for progressives. And of course it wasn't just Lsied.
19:05
Speaker 6: You had other wins for progressives in Michigan as well,
19:08
Speaker 6: So all in.
19:09
Speaker 7: All, a big night for progressives.
19:11
Speaker 6: But of course, that said, he's got a ton of
19:13
Speaker 6: work to do, starting this morning. If he is going
19:16
Speaker 6: to beat Mike Rogers and that is going to be
19:19
Speaker 6: an uphill battle in a state as moderate and purple
19:23
Speaker 6: and swingy as Michigan.
19:26
Speaker 2: Well, if there is a lot of work to do, Rick,
19:28
Speaker 2: one would think that that means there's a lot of
19:30
Speaker 2: money to be spent. But have we learned a bit
19:33
Speaker 2: of a lesson here on the efficacy of money? As
19:37
Speaker 2: Joe mentioned, the money was on the side of Hailey
19:39
Speaker 2: Stevens here and she did not come out victorious.
19:43
Speaker 13: Yeah, Hailey Stephens and company spent what ten times more
19:47
Speaker 13: than else I had even raised, So it was a
19:52
Speaker 13: real referendum on the fact that money doesn't buy votes.
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Speaker 3: But that being said, it was a lot closer.
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Speaker 13: As Jeannie said, we both predicted yesterday that you can't
20:03
Speaker 13: watch Michigan Poland because it's notoriously bad. Well we were
20:06
Speaker 13: proven right and feel good about that. But look, I mean,
20:10
Speaker 13: this is a migration of the Democratic Party, just like
20:14
Speaker 13: there's a migration to the right on the Republican Party.
20:17
Speaker 13: I mean, like it's undeniable. There's a movement to the left,
20:20
Speaker 13: and Republicans are moving towards the right, and that's why
20:23
Speaker 13: we have this thing called maga and so this is
20:26
Speaker 13: just a natural occurrence and we're going to see it
20:28
Speaker 13: play out in other states. But at the end of
20:31
Speaker 13: the day, the question is can Aside win a state
20:33
Speaker 13: ride race? And when you look at the number of
20:36
Speaker 13: things that are happening on the ground in these elections,
20:39
Speaker 13: and there are a bunch yesterday on referendums that show
20:43
Speaker 13: large blue participation in the elections, and that should send
20:51
Speaker 13: shock ways up Republicans right now, because when you've got
20:54
Speaker 13: races like in Texas where Trump won by fourteen percent
20:57
Speaker 13: and it's a dead heat in the Senate, you better
20:59
Speaker 13: start sweating bullets.
21:01
Speaker 9: Wow.
21:02
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I'd offer what happened in Missouri last
21:06
Speaker 3: evening as well, Jeanie. This was a rematch between Representative
21:10
Speaker 3: Wesley Bell and Corey Bush, who was coming back in
21:14
Speaker 3: an attempt to return to Congress. Apak put two million
21:18
Speaker 3: dollars into Bell's re election campaign and Wesley Bell won Again.
21:24
Speaker 3: Is the national trend to go left or to simply
21:28
Speaker 3: be more involved?
21:31
Speaker 7: You know, I think we're seeing.
21:33
Speaker 6: It depends on the district, it depends on the state,
21:36
Speaker 6: And of course I just want to underscore candidates matter.
21:40
Speaker 6: An awful lot and so you're absolutely right. Bell, you know,
21:46
Speaker 6: nominated again by his party to fold his seat if
21:49
Speaker 6: he can.
21:51
Speaker 7: You know, on the Michigan side.
21:53
Speaker 6: You see somebody like Lsied versus a candidate in Haley Stevens, who,
21:59
Speaker 6: for all her gifts, was unable to translate that her
22:03
Speaker 6: establishment support and her money into a win there. And
22:07
Speaker 6: I think this is the challenge that Republicans face. In
22:10
Speaker 6: addition to the historical wave that we will likely see
22:14
Speaker 6: that's turning blue, and to the enthusiasm Rick was talking
22:17
Speaker 6: about on the Democratic side, it's also the issue of
22:20
Speaker 6: Rogers himself as a candidate. We heard today l sayed say,
22:25
Speaker 6: come on, let's have five debates. I'm asking I want
22:28
Speaker 6: an answer today. As far as I know, Rogers has
22:30
Speaker 6: an answer. He's talking about Rogers living in Florida. Rogers
22:35
Speaker 6: had a really strange interview with Semaphore the other day when,
22:38
Speaker 6: after repeated questions about national issues, he kept differing and saying, oh, no,
22:43
Speaker 6: I don't want to talk about that. This is a
22:45
Speaker 6: local race. Well, he's not running for mayor, he's running
22:48
Speaker 6: for senator. And this is a guy with foreign policy
22:51
Speaker 6: chops and is he going to hug Donald Trump or
22:54
Speaker 6: move away from him. He was bested by Cash Bettel
22:57
Speaker 6: to be FBI director for Donald Trump this time around.
23:00
Speaker 7: Hard to run away from that though.
23:02
Speaker 6: All of these things make it really difficult for Rogers
23:06
Speaker 6: in a time when we're seeing this blue wave. But
23:09
Speaker 6: of course they're going to try to paint Al Sayed
23:11
Speaker 6: as this communist, socialist, very left wing figure, and based
23:17
Speaker 6: on what I heard today when he came out, he's
23:20
Speaker 6: going to push back hard on those suggestions and try
23:23
Speaker 6: to get Democrats who he lost to Stevens on board
23:26
Speaker 6: with him.
23:26
Speaker 7: So it's going to be quite a race.
23:28
Speaker 6: But I don't think we're seeing one direction or another
23:31
Speaker 6: for Democrats. It depends on the state and the district
23:34
Speaker 6: and where voters find themselves.
23:37
Speaker 2: Well understanding that this may be a state by state
23:40
Speaker 2: case as we look toward November, Rick, when we consider
23:43
Speaker 2: the path, the narrow one that Democrats have to try
23:47
Speaker 2: to get the Senate majority, is there any realistic path
23:50
Speaker 2: that does not include retaining a blue seat in Michigan.
23:53
Speaker 2: Do you see a world in which they could maybe
23:55
Speaker 2: lose Michigan but would pick up the other five necessary
23:58
Speaker 2: to flip the chamber.
24:00
Speaker 13: I think it's very hard I think they've got to
24:03
Speaker 13: retain that seat. I think that you could make some
24:06
Speaker 13: kind of an academic argument based on the cycle, based
24:09
Speaker 13: on the energy, things like that, that they could pick
24:12
Speaker 13: up for, but finding that fifth seat, if they had to,
24:15
Speaker 13: would be incredibly difficult. And I would say the one
24:18
Speaker 13: thing I would disagree with Genie a little bit on,
24:20
Speaker 13: and I'm given the Democrats more credit than they probably deserve,
24:25
Speaker 13: is I think this is a national thing. I don't
24:27
Speaker 13: think this is state by state. I think what you
24:29
Speaker 13: see happening in Michigan same things happening in places like
24:32
Speaker 13: Missouri and Kansas and Texas and Ohio and places like that,
24:37
Speaker 13: where Democrats are totally overperforming Harris on the ballot and
24:44
Speaker 13: Republicans are well underperforming Trump from the twenty four ballot,
24:49
Speaker 13: and that is an elixir for a national movement. And
24:52
Speaker 13: if this gets caught up in that, then anything goes.
24:55
Speaker 13: But I think the Democrats have to look at this
24:58
Speaker 13: Michigan seat and say, we have to go all in
25:00
Speaker 13: on l side. We have to make sure he wins.
25:03
Speaker 13: We have a vulnerable Republican who lost by two percent.
25:06
Speaker 13: A good year for Republicans, now it's a bad year
25:09
Speaker 13: for Republicans.
25:10
Speaker 3: We ought to be able to beat the guy. So
25:12
Speaker 3: we'll see.
25:12
Speaker 13: I mean, it'll be interesting to see ifl side cooperates
25:15
Speaker 13: with that moves to the center a little bit.
25:17
Speaker 3: Well, if we pull out the lens here. Democrats are
25:20
Speaker 3: feeling pretty good about things, it seems, Genie. As I
25:23
Speaker 3: look at the latest from the d Triple C. This is,
25:25
Speaker 3: of course, the campaign committee that gets Democrats elected to
25:29
Speaker 3: the House. Ninety days out from the midterms, it says
25:32
Speaker 3: D Trip announces latest expansion of the House battlefields for
25:36
Speaker 3: the cycle. They've added twelve more names to make a
25:40
Speaker 3: total of fifty eight. As Democrats go on offense, I've
25:43
Speaker 3: got to be honest, though, some of these names you
25:45
Speaker 3: wouldn't expect to see on a list like this, Genie,
25:48
Speaker 3: Lauren Bobert, Victoria's Sparks. Okay, but french Hill, the Chairman
25:53
Speaker 3: of House Financial Services from Arkansas, Mike Flood of Nebraska,
25:58
Speaker 3: Nick Lolota of New York, these are all flippable.
26:02
Speaker 12: You know.
26:03
Speaker 6: I don't think all of them are, but I do
26:05
Speaker 6: think it is a sign that Democrats understand the environment
26:09
Speaker 6: they are in, and if it hadn't been for the
26:12
Speaker 6: mid decade, redistricting. If it hadn't been for these if
26:15
Speaker 6: it's not for these threats from Donald Trump about muddying
26:18
Speaker 6: the waters with voters lists and other things, then.
26:22
Speaker 7: They should have a huge pickup this year.
26:25
Speaker 6: Given the president's numbers on the economy alone, you know,
26:29
Speaker 6: you look back, you know a president who is at
26:32
Speaker 6: thirty seven thirty eight percent overall and approval on the
26:36
Speaker 6: economy thirty two, thirty three, thirty four depending on the polls.
26:40
Speaker 7: It's very hard for his party to do well.
26:43
Speaker 6: But given as I mentioned, the way these district looks,
26:46
Speaker 6: these districts look, it might be a little tougher than
26:49
Speaker 6: it has been in the past. But Joe Rick Davis
26:53
Speaker 6: and the d triplet feeling good about the Democrats, so
26:56
Speaker 6: I'm in a good mood.
27:00
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, our Republican strategist in Jeanie Shanzano, our Democratic
27:03
Speaker 2: analyst on today's political panel, thank you both so much
27:06
Speaker 2: for joining us on Balance of Power.
27:08
Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
27:10
Speaker 3: more coming up after this.
27:15
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27:34
Speaker 3: I would say that we're still counting votes in Michigan
27:37
Speaker 3: because they are, but it doesn't matter. The race is
27:39
Speaker 3: over here, just over a point removing. Abdul al sayed
27:44
Speaker 3: from Haley Stevens, remarkable, forty eight point five percent to
27:49
Speaker 3: forty seven point five percent. It's one point even. Actually,
27:54
Speaker 3: with ninety nine percent of precincts counted. Nobody's talking about
27:58
Speaker 3: a recount. Quite the contrary. We heard from Abdul Elsaiah,
28:03
Speaker 3: the Democratic Progressive, who said he got a phone call
28:07
Speaker 3: from Hailey Stevens pretty early on listen.
28:09
Speaker 14: Hailey brings the best of herself to her work. She
28:13
Speaker 14: is one of the most committed public servants that you'll
28:15
Speaker 14: ever meet. She loves democracy like I love democracy, and
28:19
Speaker 14: whatever difference is that we might have had in the primary,
28:21
Speaker 14: they pale in comparison to what unifies us. A recognition that,
28:25
Speaker 14: so long as we want to keep our democracy, that
28:27
Speaker 14: democracy better be working for people, and that all of
28:29
Speaker 14: us have to come together to make sure that we
28:32
Speaker 14: never let Mike Rogers see the inside of the US Senate.
28:35
Speaker 14: So Congressman, to thank you.
28:36
Speaker 3: For your race. Yes, she called to concede. An issued
28:41
Speaker 3: a statement, Hailey Stevens no stranger to this broadcast. I
28:46
Speaker 3: want to congratulate Abdullah, I'll say it on winning the
28:49
Speaker 3: Democratic nomination for US Senate. He's a doctor, a community
28:52
Speaker 3: health official, a Rhodes scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I'm
28:56
Speaker 3: proud to offer my supports he takes on Mike Rogers
28:58
Speaker 3: and the general election. Donald try Trump and Mike Rogers.
29:00
Speaker 3: See how quick she tied the two together. Want us
29:03
Speaker 3: to come out of this primary tired and divide it
29:05
Speaker 3: so they're billionaire backers can come in, let multi millionaire
29:08
Speaker 3: Mike Rogers walk away with the Senate seat. She says.
29:11
Speaker 3: They want to keep the Senate read so Mike Rogers
29:13
Speaker 3: can keep rubber stamping Donald Trump's harmful agenda. Some of
29:17
Speaker 3: that is true. Need to win Michigan if you're going
29:20
Speaker 3: to own the Senate, and that doesn't matter if you're
29:21
Speaker 3: a Democrat or a Republican. And of course you've heard
29:25
Speaker 3: the conventional wisdom here on Bloomberg that l say ed
29:30
Speaker 3: is a weaker general election candidate that Hayley Stevens, if
29:36
Speaker 3: she only had that missing point, would be more likely
29:40
Speaker 3: to bring Michigan home to Democrats in the fall or
29:44
Speaker 3: keep it home, as the case may be. We're going
29:47
Speaker 3: to dig into this in a couple of the other
29:48
Speaker 3: races from an important primary night. Now with Kyle Condick,
29:52
Speaker 3: let's talk to an expert. We go to school with
29:54
Speaker 3: the professor who is managing editor of Sabada's Crystal Ball
29:57
Speaker 3: at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Kyle's great
30:00
Speaker 3: to see you on the day after here. Thank you
30:02
Speaker 3: for joining us a lot of folks. It's really amazing
30:04
Speaker 3: to see how this was reflected in media reporting here
30:08
Speaker 3: this morning, because I woke up to as many headlines
30:10
Speaker 3: in the tip sheets saying it was a big night
30:12
Speaker 3: for progressives changing the face of the Democratic Party to
30:16
Speaker 3: those saying it was a disappointing night for progressives. He
30:20
Speaker 3: only got it out with one point and it was
30:22
Speaker 3: supposed to be a double digit blowout. Kyle, how are
30:24
Speaker 3: you looking at this specifically Senate primary in Michigan.
30:29
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think expectations got out of whack because the
30:32
Speaker 10: polling ended up being sort of out of whack. And
30:34
Speaker 10: I think one thing that may have been going on
30:36
Speaker 10: here is that, you know, primary electorates are generally generally skew,
30:41
Speaker 10: even older than general election electorates, and there was some
30:46
Speaker 10: some sense that maybe pollsters were showing an electorate that
30:50
Speaker 10: that was maybe younger than what we ultimately got last night.
30:52
Speaker 10: I think if you told me like two months ago
30:54
Speaker 10: that else I had won this primary by a point,
30:57
Speaker 10: I'd say, hey, that's pretty impressive performance for progression candidate.
31:00
Speaker 10: I think, you know, if you look at it more recently,
31:02
Speaker 10: and you know, Elsaiette himself and his allies kind of
31:05
Speaker 10: kind of punched or you know, kind of kind of
31:08
Speaker 10: overinflated his chances by putting out a lot of polls
31:10
Speaker 10: showing him doing quite well, you could then say, well,
31:13
Speaker 10: I guess compared to the you know, the expectations as
31:16
Speaker 10: of a few days ago or as of yesterday, el
31:19
Speaker 10: said sort of underperformed. So it's kind of a just
31:21
Speaker 10: kind of a strange expectations thing. I do think probably
31:25
Speaker 10: Stevens was this would have been the safer choice for Democrats,
31:27
Speaker 10: although she didn't exactly light the world on fire in
31:29
Speaker 10: her own campaign and just in terms of candidate skills,
31:33
Speaker 10: I think El said was probably stronger. But he's also
31:36
Speaker 10: definitely a more kind of factional, clearly left wing candidate,
31:40
Speaker 10: and you know, in a swing state race, he'd probably
31:42
Speaker 10: have someone who's you'd probably rather have someone who's perceived
31:45
Speaker 10: as closer to the center. So I think I'll said,
31:47
Speaker 10: probably will underperform what you might expect a generic Democrat,
31:52
Speaker 10: although you know, there's no such thing as an actual,
31:54
Speaker 10: you know, generic Democrat or Republican. But in a year
31:57
Speaker 10: like this, even if he does underperform, that's that's still
32:00
Speaker 10: not prevent him from winning, given that this is a
32:02
Speaker 10: Democratic leaning year.
32:05
Speaker 3: Well that's fascinating to hear, you know, the president weigh
32:07
Speaker 3: in last evening. I'm not sure he even knew who
32:09
Speaker 3: was running this. I can't understand what it says. Great
32:12
Speaker 3: news for the Republican Party, and I get the spirit
32:14
Speaker 3: of that, El sayed. A communist loser, he writes, who
32:18
Speaker 3: hates Jews in Israel is the projected winner in his
32:21
Speaker 3: race with the socialist I thought he was projecting Il
32:26
Speaker 3: say it as so, I guess he means Hailey Stevens
32:29
Speaker 3: was As usual, the polls were way off on this one.
32:32
Speaker 3: She was not expected in ilild as well as she did.
32:35
Speaker 3: Are we talking about I don't know what now? The
32:37
Speaker 3: democrats crazy policies, he says, will only get worse. Let's
32:41
Speaker 3: forget because I don't even understand where we're going in
32:43
Speaker 3: that post for a minute, Kyle. The conventional wisdom that
32:47
Speaker 3: not only is el Sayed a weaker general election candidate,
32:51
Speaker 3: but that the Democratic Party is having this massive internal
32:57
Speaker 3: fight with social and communism. Does this race represent that
33:04
Speaker 3: or is this a single race story.
33:08
Speaker 10: I do think there's a trend, you know, I think
33:10
Speaker 10: over the summer kind of going into a lot of
33:12
Speaker 10: the primary season, the thought was, well, you know, is
33:15
Speaker 10: there is are the Democrats actually going through the you know,
33:17
Speaker 10: their own kind of tea party moment that Republicans went
33:20
Speaker 10: through and arguably are still going through. You know, fifteen
33:23
Speaker 10: years ago, after Barack Obama got elected, the initial results
33:27
Speaker 10: from primaries were kind of mixed. Earlier this year, I
33:30
Speaker 10: do think the results from the summer do point to
33:32
Speaker 10: kind of a growing strength for kind of more left
33:35
Speaker 10: wing anti establishment forces within the Democratic Party. You know,
33:39
Speaker 10: that doesn't mean that that the left wing candidates are
33:41
Speaker 10: always going to win these races. You know, another result
33:43
Speaker 10: last night was a representative Wesley Bell in Missouri's first district.
33:48
Speaker 10: He he won pretty comfortably against Corey Bush, who's a
33:51
Speaker 10: more left wing candidate who a Bell unseated in twenty
33:55
Speaker 10: twenty four, and then then he won his rematch easily.
33:57
Speaker 10: So again, you're not going to see this consistent result
33:59
Speaker 10: in every every single race. But again I do think that,
34:02
Speaker 10: you know, progressives are on the rise. You know, another
34:04
Speaker 10: race that's worth noting is Michigan's seventh congressional district, which
34:08
Speaker 10: is one of the most competitive US House seats in
34:10
Speaker 10: the whole country, held by Republican Tom Barrett. District centered
34:13
Speaker 10: on Lansing in Michigan State University and then some more
34:16
Speaker 10: conservative turf around it and sort of the middle or
34:20
Speaker 10: middle of Michigan William Lawrence, who's a progressive candidate. He
34:24
Speaker 10: ended up winning against two kind of more establishment oriented Democrats.
34:27
Speaker 10: And you know, again, you look at Lawrence winning, you
34:29
Speaker 10: look at Elside winning. I think that it is possible
34:32
Speaker 10: that these candidates will underperform. It is possible that they
34:35
Speaker 10: might kick away winnable races for Democrats, but I wouldn't
34:38
Speaker 10: just necessarily take it for granted that they.
34:40
Speaker 3: Will William Lawrence, a co founder of the Sunrise Movement
34:46
Speaker 3: as it's called. I'm glad you mentioned him because a
34:49
Speaker 3: big part of his platform was opposition to data center development,
34:53
Speaker 3: which I know is landing to some extent in your
34:56
Speaker 3: state and my state of Virginia. And I should ask
34:59
Speaker 3: you about for ja You's second congressional because this is
35:02
Speaker 3: a different storyline, but an important race here with Jen Kiggins,
35:06
Speaker 3: Republican and former Congressoman Elaine Luria in a rematch here.
35:11
Speaker 3: It looks like this is Virginia Beach, one of the
35:14
Speaker 3: most competitive in the state. What's got your attention there?
35:17
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mentioned Michigan seven is one of the sort
35:20
Speaker 10: of the you know, best swing districts in the country.
35:23
Speaker 10: Virginia two is another one of those districts. You know,
35:26
Speaker 10: they're only maybe two dozen or less districts in the
35:29
Speaker 10: whole country that really voted very similarly to how how
35:32
Speaker 10: the nation voted for president in twenty twenty four. Michigan
35:36
Speaker 10: seven is one, Virginia two is another. Virginia two is
35:39
Speaker 10: another toss up race.
35:40
Speaker 9: You know.
35:41
Speaker 10: Again, at the end of the day, you'd probably expect
35:43
Speaker 10: Democrats to flip Virginia two if they're winning the House,
35:46
Speaker 10: but if they don't, and that'll be a race to
35:48
Speaker 10: watch early on election night, you know, just like in
35:50
Speaker 10: Virginia when Abigail Spanberger won reelection in twenty twenty two,
35:54
Speaker 10: it was a sign that the Republicans maybe weren't getting
35:56
Speaker 10: the kind of wave that they were hoping for in
35:59
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two. And you know, Virginia two will be
36:02
Speaker 10: another really key race to watch along with along with
36:05
Speaker 10: Michigan seven, which you were talking about earlier.
36:08
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about this new map, an
36:10
Speaker 3: expanded map from the d Triple C. As we described
36:13
Speaker 3: these races in detail, Let's go broad here for a moment,
36:18
Speaker 3: because the d TRIP just added twelve Republican held districts
36:22
Speaker 3: to its battle map, bringing the target list up to
36:26
Speaker 3: fifty eight seats, and it's put some recognizable names here
36:31
Speaker 3: in the crosshairs. Lauren Bobert, Victorious Sparts, French Hill, Tony Gonzalez.
36:37
Speaker 3: What do you make of this expanding map? Mike Flood
36:41
Speaker 3: is on here, Kyle, is this realistic.
36:44
Speaker 10: The districts that the d TRIP recognized today or put
36:49
Speaker 10: out today. You know, let's a mix of districts that
36:51
Speaker 10: some of them I still call a safe Republican, and
36:53
Speaker 10: our ratings some of them we have as a likely Republican.
36:55
Speaker 10: You know, we actually moved Bobert onto our board as
36:58
Speaker 10: likely Republican last week. Although that's a district that a
37:01
Speaker 10: Republican should should definitely be able to win even.
37:04
Speaker 3: In a wave of environment.
37:05
Speaker 10: But I mean, we have seen this dynamic in which like,
37:08
Speaker 10: for instance, there was a Democratic poll in Virginia two
37:10
Speaker 10: which we were just talking about, that was tied, and
37:12
Speaker 10: so that that you know, democratic internal poll that's actually
37:15
Speaker 10: a good result for Republicans. On the other hand, the
37:18
Speaker 10: Democrats have been releasing polls across the country in districts
37:21
Speaker 10: that aren't at the center of the battlefield that that
37:23
Speaker 10: show pretty competitive results. And I think that's reflected in
37:26
Speaker 10: the d tripleC.
37:27
Speaker 3: Trying to cast a wide net.
37:29
Speaker 10: You know, in twenty eighteen, when Democrats flipped the House,
37:32
Speaker 10: they won they didn't win all of the sort of
37:34
Speaker 10: battleground seats, but they won almost all of them a
37:36
Speaker 10: line share of them. Two thousand and six, when Democrats
37:38
Speaker 10: flipped the House, the Republicans actually held up pretty well
37:41
Speaker 10: in some of the some of the key battleground races
37:44
Speaker 10: that year, but Democrats ended up flipping a lot of
37:47
Speaker 10: kind of surprising seats and maybe, you know, maybe Democrats
37:50
Speaker 10: will be able to do that to some extent, but
37:53
Speaker 10: you know, districts where Trump won by more than ten points,
37:56
Speaker 10: they may be able to win a few of those races,
37:58
Speaker 10: but you probably won't expect them to win a lot of.
38:00
Speaker 3: Kyle Condick great insights. Nick lolotis on here is Suffolk
38:06
Speaker 3: County Going Democrat. Thanks for listening to the Balance of
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38:15
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