Latest / Stagflation Conversations with Fexingo: High Inflation, Slow Growth, and 1970s Echoes / How Stagflation Is Reshaping the Comic Book Market
Transcript
- Lucas: Consumer prices are up 4.2 percent year-over-year as of May, the highest reading in three years. Real GDP growth is running at 1.6 percent annualized. That combination — high inflation, slow growth — has people hunting for assets that might hold value when stocks and bonds get wobbly. And one of the more surprising places they're looking is comic books. Luna: I've seen the headlines about rare comics hitting auction records. But is that really a broad trend, or just a few super-wealthy collectors driving prices on a handful of books? Lucas: It's both, but let's start with the headline numbers. In February 2025, Heritage Auctions sold a 1939 Detective Comics #27 — that's Batman's first appearance — for $1.5 million. A 1962 Amazing Fantasy #15, first Spider-Man, went for $1.1 million in 2024. Those are the outliers, but the entire certified vintage comic market — books graded by the Certified Guaranty Company, or CGC — has seen average prices rise about 14 percent annually over the past five years. Luna: That's roughly in line with inflation-adjusted stock returns, maybe a bit better. But with a lot more risk and far less liquidity. Lucas: Exactly. You can't sell a CGC 9.8 copy of The Amazing Spider-Man #300 in ten seconds like you can an ETF. But that illiquidity is actually part of the appeal for some investors right now. When inflation is eating away cash and bond yields are still below the CPI print, people are willing to lock money into physical assets that have a track record of holding value during stagflationary periods. Luna: And there is a historical parallel here. The 1970s saw a huge boom in comic collecting. The first comic book conventions started then, and prices for Golden Age books really took off. Lucas: Right. The 1970s was when the direct market — the network of dedicated comic book shops — really took shape. And it was also a period when people were looking for stores of value outside the financial system. Gold went from $35 an ounce in 1971 to $850 in 1980. Comics didn't spike that dramatically, but the top-tier books appreciated steadily. A 1938 Action Comics #1 — first Superman — might have cost a few hundred dollars in the early 1970s. By 1980, it was selling for tens of thousands. Luna: So what's the modern version of that? Are there specific keys — first appearances, iconic covers — that people are targeting now? Lucas: The market has gotten more sophisticated. Investors are buying graded slabs — that's the plastic-sealed CGC holder — and treating them almost like art prints. First appearances of characters that have strong intellectual property value are the blue chips. So, first appearance of Black Panther in Fantastic Four #52, first appearance of Wolverine in The Incredible Hulk #181, first appearance of Venom in Amazing Spider-Man #300. These books have seen their values increase by 20 to 30 percent annually over the last decade, depending on grade. Luna: And a lot of that is driven by media — movie and TV adaptations that introduce these characters to a global audience. But that's also a risk. If the IP gets overexposed or a reboot flops, does the comic value dip? Lucas: It can, but historically the dips have been shallow and temporary. The real risk is condition and grading. A slight difference in grade — say a 9.4 versus a 9.6 — can mean a 50 percent price difference. And grading is subjective, even with CGC's standards. Plus there's the risk of restoration detection, which can kill value. Luna: So this is not a market for someone who wants to park ten thousand dollars and check it in a year. You really need to understand the nuances. Lucas: And you need patience. The transaction costs are high — auction fees can be 15 to 20 percent, and grading costs can be fifty to a hundred dollars per book. But for a certain kind of investor, especially one who values tangibility and doesn't need to liquidate quickly, comics are becoming a legitimate portfolio diversifier. There are even comic-focused funds now, like the Comic Book Fund, which pools money to buy high-grade keys. Luna: It reminds me of the art market, but with a lower barrier to entry. You can buy a significant key in mid-grade for a few thousand dollars, whereas a comparable piece of fine art might cost tens of thousands. Lucas: And that accessibility is bringing in younger investors. The typical comic collector used to be a 40-something male who grew up with the books. Now you're seeing people in their twenties and thirties, many of whom discovered characters through movies, buying graded slabs as a store of value. It's a demographic shift that dovetails with the stagflation narrative. Luna: You know, I've been thinking about something you said earlier — about how the 1970s direct market gave birth to a formal collecting ecosystem. It's a bit like that now, but with online grading databases, price guides, and auction platforms. The infrastructure is much more transparent. Lucas: Absolutely. Sites like GoCollect and GPAnalysis track sales in real time. You can see what every graded copy of a book has sold for, down to the specific grade. That transparency reduces some of the information asymmetry that used to make collectibles a minefield. It's still not as efficient as the stock market, but it's light-years from where it was in the 1990s. Luna: And I wonder if that transparency is partly why we're seeing more institutional interest. I've heard of family offices allocating a small percentage to collectibles, including comics. Lucas: Yeah, and that's interesting because a lot of those listeners who follow the show closely are the ones who help keep this ad-free space running — people chip in at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo, and that's literally what allows us to dig into these niche markets without any sponsor pressure. It's a small group, but it makes a big difference. Luna: Totally. And it lets us ask questions like: is a comic book a better inflation hedge than gold? Probably not on a risk-adjusted basis, but for someone who enjoys the asset, the non-financial return matters too. Lucas: Right. And that leads to another angle — the physical retail side. Comic book shops are evolving. A lot of them are now hybrid spaces: part store, part gallery, part lounge. They host events, signings, and they're selling high-grade back issues that sit in display cases like jewelry. Luna: And those shops are also recording increased foot traffic from people who aren't traditional comic fans. They come in because they heard that comics are an investment — and they leave with a graded slab or two. Lucas: But there's a cautionary note. The 1990s speculative bubble in comics was massive. People bought multiple copies of gimmick covers — holograms, chromium — expecting them to appreciate. Most of those books are now worth cover price or less. The key difference today is that the demand is concentrated on broadly recognized key issues with proven long-term demand, not on speculation about what might become popular. Luna: Still, it's worth asking: how much of this run-up is driven by genuine collecting passion versus macroeconomic fear? If inflation cools and growth picks up, does the comic market cool off too? Lucas: Probably some cooling, but I think the floor is higher than it was because the collector base is more global. During the pandemic, international buyers — especially from Asia — entered the market in force. That broadens demand and adds resilience. Also, the supply of high-grade copies of key books is fixed. They were printed decades ago and many have been lost or damaged. So the scarcity is real. Luna: So your thesis is: in a stagflation environment, scarce physical assets with a deep emotional connection — like comics — will continue to attract capital that might otherwise go to gold or real estate. Lucas: That's exactly it. Gold has no yield, but you can store it in a vault. Comics have no yield either, but you can display them and they have a cultural narrative that gold doesn't. And in a world where 4.2 percent inflation erodes purchasing power, people are willing to hold things that feel tangible and have a story. Luna: So if someone wanted to start with, say, two thousand dollars, where would you point them? Lucas: I'd say look for a mid-grade copy of a major key from the early 1980s — something like Marvel's Secret Wars #8, which is the first appearance of the black suit Spider-Man. A CGC 9.6 copy goes for around $500 to $700. Or Incredible Hulk #340, first appearance of the Hulk's grey form, for a similar price. Avoid modern variants, stick to books with proven demand, and buy a Fair or Good grade if that's what you can afford — condition is important, but ownership of a true key is more important than the grade. Luna: Great advice. And it's a way to make economic history interesting — you can literally hold a piece of pop culture that's also an inflation hedge. Lucas: Exactly. And we'll keep tracking whether the comic market continues to mirror the 1970s pattern, or whether this time is different. Thanks for listening.