Latest / Best of Business / Alexander Cornwell: Reuters Middle East correspondent on Donald Trump threatening a navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

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Alexander Cornwell: Reuters Middle East correspondent on Donald Trump threatening a navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks. It'd be
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump says he will start blockading the Strait of
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  Speaker 2: Humu's overnight our time. This comes after ceasefire negotiations and
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  Speaker 2: Pakistan collapsed over the weekend. Alexander Cornwall is Reuter's senior
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  Speaker 2: Middle East correspondent in Tel Aviv and with US Hi, Alexander, Hi,
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  Speaker 2: good to be with you. Is this a negotiating tactic
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  Speaker 2: to force around back to the table.
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  Speaker 3: That's a very good question. You know, neither the Iranians
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  Speaker 3: nor the Americans have said explicitly that the negotiations are over.
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  Speaker 3: They did enter this negotiations with a two week ceasefire period,
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  Speaker 3: so it's a fair question that is this simply a
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  Speaker 3: negotiating tactic. However, we know that at least from the
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  Speaker 3: US military that they will start blockading the Straight of
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  Speaker 3: Humus for ships traveling to and from Iranian ports from
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  Speaker 3: ten am Eastern Standard time, which is overnight in and Z.
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  Speaker 3: And that, you know, the other question is that if
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  Speaker 3: the military does go ahead with this, what will be
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  Speaker 3: the Iranian reaction?
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  Speaker 2: Does it bring? I mean I'm assuming the ships don't
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  Speaker 2: have to go in the blockade, doesn't have to go
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  Speaker 2: into the Strait in order to form the blockade, so
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  Speaker 2: it'll be outside of the Strait. But does it bring
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  Speaker 2: those ships into range of the Iranian missiles.
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  Speaker 3: The military hasn't said exactly where they're going to position
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  Speaker 3: they're ships, but you know, it's quite a wide area
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  Speaker 3: that stretches from the land mass that is Oman to Iran,
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  Speaker 3: so it's a wide area they have to cover. They
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  Speaker 3: said it's a naval blockade, they haven't. I don't believe
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  Speaker 3: they've explicitly said what role fighter jets or other aircraft
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  Speaker 3: will play, but it could it well and truly could
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  Speaker 3: put the American ships close to Iranian territory. But the
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  Speaker 3: other thing is that we've known over this past six
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  Speaker 3: weeks of so, is that the Iranians have the capability
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  Speaker 3: to fire long range aerial attacks. We've seen them hit
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  Speaker 3: Israel many times, they hit across the Gulf Arab States
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  Speaker 3: many times. So just because naval ships are not right
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  Speaker 3: on around shore doesn't mean the Iranians won't be able
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  Speaker 3: to hit them.
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  Speaker 2: How much of Iran's oil goes through the Strait, as
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  Speaker 2: opposed to over the land borders pretty much.
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  Speaker 3: The bulk of it goes through the Strait of Humus.
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  Speaker 3: There's that Carg Island which the Americans hit earlier in
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  Speaker 3: the war. Now that when they hit it, they said
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  Speaker 3: they were hitting military infrastructure and not oil facilities or religiously,
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  Speaker 3: that island produces or handles. Sorry that the bulk of
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  Speaker 3: Iran's oil exports, So the oils go to Cargo Island
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  Speaker 3: and then they're shipped out via the strait.
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  Speaker 2: How critible is it that Trump is apparently starting to
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  Speaker 2: reconsider doing strikes again.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, it's a good question. What is the president thinking?
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  Speaker 3: We never know, and he's known to change his mind
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  Speaker 3: at different moments in time. I'm sure the Americans are
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  Speaker 3: thinking about it as one of many scenarios. Now the
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  Speaker 3: question is that if that he can conducts strikes or
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  Speaker 3: reports limited strikes again, how do the Uranians react? Because
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  Speaker 3: they may go after these US naval ships that are
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  Speaker 3: potentially closer in range than they had been before early
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  Speaker 3: in the war. They can go after the Gulf States,
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  Speaker 3: which they did repeatedly during before the ceasefire, and that
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  Speaker 3: includes oil infrastructure. Now in the UAE, they have a
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  Speaker 3: port that sits outside the straight up formors of which
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  Speaker 3: you can export oil. The Saudi Arabians have a port
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  Speaker 3: on the Red Seed, it can also export oil. The
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  Speaker 3: Uranians have proven that they have the capability of hitting
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  Speaker 3: both of these sites that would limit those exports. And
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  Speaker 3: there is also the question of Yemen's hooties and whether
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  Speaker 3: they would try and once again close or restrict the
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  Speaker 3: Red Sea, which would further put pressure on global oil prices.
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  Speaker 2: Alexander, it's good to talk to you, and I really
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  Speaker 2: appreciate your time. That's Alexander Cornwall, Reuter's senior correspondent.
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