Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 168 - 11/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 168 - 11/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 168 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Thirsty Thursday. The work week is winding down.
0:40
We're getting closer and closer to another big NFL and college
0:43
football weekend and then we're going to turn the page next
0:46
week. It's a holiday week because it's
0:47
Thanksgiving. So very much looking forward to
0:50
that. As I mentioned yesterday, I
0:52
can't wait to sweat some games with my dad as, as you know,
0:55
mushy and cliche as it sounds. I'm, I'm very much looking
0:58
forward to that because again, there's nothing better than
1:01
hanging with your pops and sweating some games together.
1:03
But anyway, guys looking toward today, got a six pack of sweats
1:07
for you. I got 3 plays on Thursday Night
1:09
Football. Obviously we have big divisional
1:11
match up here between the Steelers and the Browns.
1:14
I have a side, I have a total. I have a player prop for you
1:17
also. Weather is a theme of the day
1:19
today, not only in the Thursday Night Football game but also the
1:22
college football game tonight. Georgia Tech, NC State, I got to
1:25
play on that one as well and then I got 2 bets in college
1:29
basketball. 1 is a very sharp dog to fave line move and the
1:33
other is actually going to be kind of an experimental play, a
1:36
little bit of a buy low value play.
1:39
This line is dipped a little bit, so it makes me a little
1:41
nervous because looks like there might have been some respected
1:43
money early on the opposite team, but we have a big, big,
1:46
big bigly, a rhythm and a Ken palm edge on this one.
1:50
So overall guys, a six pack, three Thursday Night Football in
1:54
the NFL, 1 college football game and two college basketball
1:57
games, 6 pack. Can we find a way to scratch and
2:00
claw and grind out four winners? That is the goal.
2:04
Now looking back to our last night guys, on the bright side,
2:06
it was a winning night. 4 and 3 + 0.31 units.
2:10
So if you give me 1/3 of a unit, I will take it every single
2:14
time. But it was one of those nights
2:15
where, and again, I think it's kind of funny the way we, we
2:18
view 4 and 3 + 0.31 units. Like on the one hand, all you
2:22
need to know it was a winning night and that's all you're
2:24
looking for when you're betting on sports, produce as many
2:26
winning nights as possible. But there are some nights where
2:29
four and three feels really good.
2:31
There are some nights where four and three feels kind of
2:33
disappointing. And that was kind of the night
2:35
last night because we were four and three and, and eked out a
2:38
unit or 1/3 of a unit. But you know what guys, I think
2:41
it should have been better than that.
2:43
So we did have some great winners with Towson coming up
2:45
bigly. And I saw a great comment from
2:48
one of the pod listeners saying the 11 of the reason why they
2:50
like the all systems Go pod is we highlight games that no one
2:54
else highlights. So Towson low bet, obscure sharp
2:57
line move came through. College football was a good
2:59
night. We got Buffalo plus 1 1/2.
3:01
They won the game outright. Ohio plus 1 1/2, they won the
3:04
game outright. So both of those sharp Rd. dog
3:07
faves or sorry, both of those Rd. dog line moves both came
3:12
through. We also got the Ohio under, so
3:14
we got three out of four. But here's where it got a little
3:16
bit frustrating. We should have gone 4 four or
3:19
four and O whatever way you want to look at it because did you
3:21
guys notice how we lost the Buffalo Eastern Michigan under
3:25
under 53 1/2? We are sailing under.
3:28
It was going to cash and then Eastern Michigan down big late
3:32
throws a pick six with like a minute left.
3:34
And there was this big old linebacker with a a neck roll
3:37
and he looked like almost looked like the guy in waterboy who who
3:41
makes fun of Bobby Boucher, but he has a pick 6 and I'm like,
3:44
OK, just get down, get down, go to the ground again and the
3:47
game. Of course he'd like dodges deeks
3:49
like 10 guys and scores. So that's how we lost the the
3:52
under there, which was frustrating.
3:54
I can't complain about Illinois Bama that under 168 1/2.
3:58
The steam was right. It kept going up.
4:00
We had a value play with Ken Palm and Rhythm, but that thing
4:02
sailed over. They just scored way too much.
4:04
It landed 187. But one was super frustrating to
4:07
me was the Magic game, because Magic game was the last game of
4:11
the night against the Clippers and we're sitting at 4:00 and
4:14
2:00 looking at A5 and two, because the member, it was a buy
4:17
low over 204 1/2 each quarter. We're on pace like fifty 5255
4:22
points every quarter. We went into the fourth quarter
4:25
only needing I think 43 points and 43 points and a quarter is
4:29
not needing a lot like routinely you see 5060 point quarters in
4:33
the NBA. They absolutely went ice cold in
4:37
the fourth quarter. They scored a combined 35 points
4:40
in the fourth quarter. So that was disappointing.
4:42
Again, that Magic 1 was, I would argue, a pretty bad beat because
4:45
you're on pace to sail over and then you go ice cold and the
4:49
under comes through. So either way, guys, I'll never
4:52
complain about a winning night. It's good to see a four and 3 +
4:54
0.31 units. I'll take it.
4:56
But it's one of those nights where again, I feel like we
4:58
should have probably been even better.
5:00
So tells me that we got our finger on the pulse.
5:02
We're reading the moves in the market correctly.
5:04
Just maybe some breaks are not going our way to give us that
5:07
big night that we're looking for.
5:09
But it's funny too, because like a lot of times, like baseball,
5:12
you know, I'll have like maybe like, I don't know, like if I
5:15
had 7 plays and I start the night like O and two or one and
5:18
three and I fight and claw back and get to four and three.
5:21
Like I feel good about it. Last night was a four and three
5:24
where again, you felt like maybe we left a little meat on the
5:26
bone. But either way, winning night is
5:28
a winning night. We will take it.
5:29
Reminder as always, you can support the pod and you can
5:33
double check and track every single best bet made on the pod
5:36
on the Juice Reel social tab. I tweeted out the link.
5:39
I'll start to tweet it out every single day from now on because I
5:42
know people maybe can't listen to the whole pod or they just
5:45
want the plays, which is fine. I love the process.
5:48
But hey, if you want to support the pod, think of it as a tip
5:51
jar. It's 499 a week.
5:52
It's basically a cup of coffee, 5 bucks and you'll get every
5:55
single play whether you listen to the pod or not.
5:58
But if you want to let me know you appreciate it, sign up for
6:00
the 499 a week. I'm trying to trying to make
6:03
this thing big. So anyway, looking toward today
6:06
guys, let's turn the page. Let's start off with some
6:08
Thursday Night Football. Not in college but in the NFL.
6:12
So big match up here tonight and this one I'm seeing value left
6:16
and right. I really like this game.
6:17
Doesn't mean you put 5 units on each bed.
6:19
It's one unit like any other play.
6:21
But let's walk our way through Pittsburgh and Cleveland.
6:23
So going into it, we have the Steelers 8 and two.
6:26
They've been good 8:00 and 2:00 on the year.
6:28
They won five straight just took down the Ravens 18 to 16 winning
6:31
outright as a three-point home dog.
6:33
Remember we took the points there.
6:34
So it was fine by me. Browns complete opposite 2 and
6:37
8. They've lost two straight just
6:38
got rolled by the Saints 35 to 14 lost outright as a one point
6:43
Rd. favorite. So what do we see it across the
6:44
market here? Well, it's pretty clear to me
6:47
that the sharp side is the Browns.
6:48
I'm going Browns guys. I got Browns plus 3 1/2 this
6:51
game open with Pittsburgh listed as a four and a half point Rd.
6:54
favorite and the public says Steelers 8 and 2, Cleveland 2
6:58
and 8. This line's way too short.
7:00
Steelers are going to win by double digits.
7:01
Lay it all day with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
7:04
However, Steelers are getting 81% of spread bets, yet the
7:08
line's falling toward Cleveland. So if 80% of bets you walk into
7:11
a bar, 8 out of 10 drunk guys at the bar are taking Pittsburgh.
7:14
Yeah, the Steelers are going to kill them.
7:17
Maybe they will. I hope not.
7:18
I'm going with the sharp money and move toward Cleveland.
7:19
But anyway, if so many people are betting Steelers, why are
7:23
the odds makers dropping this line to make it easier for the
7:26
public to cover? Like, again, the odds makers
7:29
aren't being nice. They're not saying to the
7:30
public, oh, you like Pittsburgh 4 1/2?
7:33
How about you only have to lay 3 1/2 now.
7:35
Now they're moving that line toward Cleveland because they
7:37
took a lot of respected money on Cleveland cause them to trigger
7:41
that reverse line move toward the Browns.
7:43
Now the Browns are matching a lot of systems for me.
7:46
First one, of course, is just this is a excellent contrarian
7:49
play, a bet against the public play Steelers or let's flip it,
7:53
The Browns at DraftKings are only getting 19% of spread bets.
7:58
At Circo, they're only getting 15% of spread bets.
8:01
So at a sharp book, in a square book or public book, this is all
8:06
Pittsburgh bets. So #1 bet against the public.
8:09
Great value on Cleveland to go the other way, Prime time dogs.
8:13
You know, the prime time dogs have been great for many years.
8:15
They haven't been as good this year.
8:17
But if you isolate prime time dogs getting 3 1/2 points or
8:20
more, so if the hook is available or better, those teams
8:23
are 92 and 67 against the spread. 58 percent. 11% ROI
8:28
since 2020. That would match with Cleveland.
8:30
Cleveland is also a divisional dog that built in familiarity
8:33
and rivalry aspect, leveling the playing field, benefiting the
8:36
team getting points. Divisional dogs getting 3 1/2
8:39
points or more. There's 16 and 9 against the
8:41
spread this year. 64% dogs off a blowout loss of 20 or more.
8:46
Mention the system. I feel like maybe there's
8:48
probably one match a week, but you get blown out like Cleveland
8:51
just got blown out by the Saints.
8:53
Public thinks you're terrible, they want nothing to do with
8:54
you. But in reality, that's a good
8:56
opportunity to buy low because those teams are undervalued.
8:59
So dog off a blowout loss of 20 points or more.
9:02
They're 112 and 91 against the spread. 55 percent. 6% ROI since
9:07
2017. Browns would also be just a
9:09
classic buy low dog off a blowout loss with a bad record
9:13
against the sell high favorite who's on a winning streak and
9:15
just had a big upset win. Also, you know Pittsburgh just
9:18
played a very physical game against the Ravens.
9:21
Now they got to play another divisional game.
9:23
I want to bet against this Pittsburgh spot.
9:25
Basically Pittsburgh is just the public love for Pittsburgh is so
9:28
high right now and it's I'd argue it's warranted.
9:31
I was surprised how good Russell Wilson has been, but I want to
9:34
sell on a team that is getting a lot of public love.
9:37
Also, good ATS, bad ATS. You want to buy low on the team
9:41
that doesn't cover and sell high on the team that does.
9:43
Cleveland is only three and seven against the spread.
9:46
Steelers are 8 and two against the spread.
9:48
So again, people have bet Pittsburgh have made money.
9:50
They remember that they want to play them again.
9:52
People who have bet on Cleveland have lost money, so they want to
9:55
fade them out of spite. Now Mike Tomlin, we all know
9:58
he's great as a dog, 61 and 31 against the spread, 66%.
10:03
But as a favorite, he's 90 and 98 against the spread, 48%.
10:07
So again, hasn't covered a ton of numbers as a favorite little
10:10
cherry on top, Brad Allen, the lead ref, he's 54% against the
10:14
spread to the home team historically.
10:16
And then if you look a little bit deeper in terms of the
10:20
system match, I wanted to mention some rhythm projections
10:24
for this game because one caught my eye in terms of let me just
10:28
pull it up in terms of the side because if you look currently
10:32
and again in the market, so my play here is Cleveland plus 3
10:34
1/2. One thing about the 3 1/2 two is
10:36
it's pretty juiced up toward Cleveland, like plus 3 1/2 at
10:39
-115 So I'm hoping that you grab the hook.
10:42
Now we see it get down to three. That'll be great indication that
10:46
respective money is continuing to pour in on Cleveland.
10:49
But I have a rhythm AI model that says basically this should
10:52
be a pick em game. So it actually has Browns -0.1.
10:57
So it actually has Cleveland slightly favored.
10:59
So the the data analytics, the AI bots, the rhythm prediction
11:04
is telling us it's a pick em game.
11:06
So why not take the points here with Cleveland and a sharp
11:09
reverse line moves. That's my first bet, Cleveland
11:11
plus 3 1/2. My second bet is I'm going to
11:14
play this under now it's very low 36 1/2, but a lot of angles
11:18
here to the under. The first one is that the total
11:21
is really falling. It open at 41 1/2.
11:23
It's down to 36 1/2. Now the under is only getting
11:26
46% bets, but 62% dollars at DraftKings.
11:30
That's a pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
11:32
But this is all about the weather.
11:35
Now if we don't, if I put the weather to the side for one
11:37
second, there's a lot of angles here to the under.
11:40
Just in general, outdoor divisional unders are 55%
11:43
against the spread since 2021. Divisional unders are 54% since
11:48
2022 when the total is less than 40.
11:50
The unders 56% over the last two years when the total falls at
11:54
least a point. The unders 55% since 2021,
11:58
divisional unders that fall are 14 and 10 to the under this
12:01
year, 58%. So there's a lot as well as a
12:04
contrarian prime time under a lot of systems on the under.
12:07
But here's where it gets good. Weather could really play a
12:10
factor here tonight. The forecast at the dog # mid
12:15
30s. So it's going to be cold, 15
12:17
mile per hour, winds gusts up to 30 mph.
12:22
And we might even get some rain or snow in this one.
12:24
I thought I saw there was going to be rain.
12:27
It could be on and off. I think it's early and then it
12:29
might come back again late, but some snow again.
12:32
When when you're playing it under, the most important thing
12:34
is the wind. But this is kind of a weather
12:37
game when the wind blows 10 mph or more.
12:39
The under is 57% since 2016. So I know it's falling a lot,
12:44
but maybe it's falling for a reason.
12:46
And this is a play to me where if this is like a, you know, a
12:49
1714 game. Pittsburgh wins 1714.
12:53
You know, I would be kicking myself for not playing this
12:55
windy under. It reminds me a little bit of
12:57
the college games last night guys, where again Buffalo EMU.
13:00
I would argue with the pick 6 at the end was a bad beat, but Ohio
13:03
Toledo under sailed under. Those are both windy unders.
13:06
Here's a windy under here. So I'm going to play the under
13:09
under 36 1/2 and then a player prop for you.
13:13
I'm going to focus on Nick Chubb, but I'm going to go Nick
13:16
Chubb under rushing yards. Now.
13:19
The first thing I noticed is shop around because I was able
13:23
to get under 53 1/2 at Caesar's and that's important because a
13:27
lot of books are at 52 1/2. So again, shop around.
13:31
And the 53 1/2 under at Caesar's, it was only -105 so it
13:34
wasn't like a -, 130 or anything.
13:36
But the big thing that caught my eye was a really good projection
13:40
or prediction for Nick Chubb. Now Nick Chubb under 63 or under
13:44
53 1/2 Rhythm is predicting he has 36.8.
13:49
So that is a pretty good you know what, 15 yard, 16 yard, 17
13:54
yard discrepancy there toward the under.
13:57
So that's a that's a good angle there.
13:59
Now Nick Chubb as we know is coming off an injury.
14:02
He only played two games last year towards knee.
14:05
Did he tear his knee against was it against Pittsburgh last year?
14:07
If I remember? Maybe, maybe not.
14:09
But anyway, there are some reasons like this under aside
14:12
from the prediction from Rhythm. Chubb is going under this number
14:15
in all four games this year. He only had 50 yards on 11
14:19
carries against the Saints last week.
14:21
And why is that worth mentioning?
14:23
Because that game was played in the Dome.
14:25
No weather, slick, you know, slick surface there indoors on
14:29
turf. And he only got 50.
14:32
And also, that was a bad Saints rush defense.
14:35
Saints are 25th and rushing yards allowed per game, 134.
14:39
Now he's going up against the Steelers, who have the 4th best
14:43
rushing defense. They're only giving up 90.8
14:46
rushing yards per game. The other angle here is footing.
14:49
Like if this is I actually googled this to make sure, but
14:53
Cleveland has the has real grass.
14:56
I think it's a Kentucky bluegrass.
14:59
But anyway, it's real grass. So it's not turf.
15:02
Why is that important? Because if it's very cold, if
15:05
it's raining, if it's snowing, footing could be an issue.
15:09
It could slow down chub because basically you're not going to
15:12
have your footing. It's going to be slippery, it's
15:13
going to be muddy. I like the fact that this is
15:16
real grass and you have weather slowing down the track, so
15:20
hopefully that is a angle that will benefit the chub under.
15:23
So shop around. But we have a great prediction
15:25
from rhythm. What did I say?
15:27
36.8? I'm going to go under 53 1/2.
15:30
That's at Caesar's for Nick Chubb.
15:33
So Chubb under 53 1/2, under 36 1/2 for the game total and
15:37
Cleveland plus the points plus 3 1/2.
15:40
Can we find a way to get two out of those three?
15:42
That is the goal. Now over to some college
15:45
football. There's only one game tonight
15:47
and it is NC State and Georgia Tech.
15:50
This is a big game here in the ACC Georgia Tech is 6 and four.
15:55
Just snapped A2 game losing streak with a big one over Miami
15:59
2823. Both teams are coming off a by
16:03
Wolfpack. They had 1-2 straight.
16:04
They just lost to Duke 2919. They're five and five on the
16:07
year. Remember, you need six wins to
16:09
get a bowl game. So Georgia Tech's got it.
16:12
NC State needs it as they're sitting on five, five wins.
16:16
Now, if you look in terms of the side, basically at this point,
16:21
you have Georgia Tech -8 1/2. Now, one thing that was
16:25
noticeable to me is Georgia Tech's only getting 54% bets,
16:29
65% dollars. I did see some books that I want
16:32
to say were 8 up to 8 1/2 and maybe some books going to 9.
16:36
I didn't really have much on the side.
16:37
But again, with these primetime games, we love those.
16:40
Gross, you know, contrarian dogs with a line move, you don't have
16:43
that. So NC State didn't really do do
16:45
much for me. But what I do like is the under
16:48
here and once again, it's a bit of a weather play currently this
16:52
NC State Georgia Tech game are actually when it opened it was
16:56
as high as 52, even 52 1/2. Now it's down to 51 1/2.
17:00
So the total has fallen. Now what's notable to me as well
17:04
is Publix going over 60% of bets are going over, yet the total
17:08
fell 52 and a half 52 down to 51 1/2.
17:11
Some books are even down to like 51 or 50 1/2.
17:14
So shop brown. I got that 51 1/2.
17:16
It's still available at Caesar's and ESPN bet, but the total has
17:20
fallen Publix over yet reverse line move under only 40% bets,
17:25
but 51% dollars are on the under.
17:28
So a good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
17:30
It is just before we get to the weather.
17:32
A straight up primetime contrarian play because this is
17:35
a game on ESPN 730 and Publix on the over get the totals falling.
17:40
So right off the bat, boom, I get excited to play an under.
17:43
Now let's get to the weather. It is going to be windy in
17:48
Atlanta here. It's going to be 15 mile per
17:50
hour winds with gusts from up to 25 to 30 mph.
17:55
So windy under and again, wind blows 10 mph or more.
17:59
The under is roughly 55% in college over the last decade.
18:03
Also, it's going to be a little bit on the colder side.
18:05
You know, low, low 40s here. The other thing I like is NC
18:09
State, they are a very slow team.
18:11
They rank 117 out of 134 teams in terms of pace of play.
18:16
And a little cherry on top to the under is I popped open Juice
18:20
Reel. I went to the sharp mush tab,
18:22
which sharp mush, if I haven't explained it to you yet, it's
18:25
really cool. I use it as a cherry on top.
18:27
Basically it tells me, hey everyone who's got a Juice Reel
18:30
app, which again, if you sync your sports books, submit your
18:33
bets, it'll basically locate who's good and who's bad.
18:37
And basically there's a 30% edge where all the good batters are
18:41
on the under and a lot of the bad batters are on the over.
18:44
So there's a 30% discrepancy where the majority of the sharp
18:47
people are on the under. So we have a total that's
18:50
fallen. It's contrarian.
18:52
In a prime time heavily back game, we got a low bets, higher
18:55
dollars bet split. We got a lot of wind.
18:57
And why is wind important? Because again, it's harder to
19:00
kick the ball and make field goals and extra points.
19:02
It's harder to throw the ball, move the chains.
19:04
You're going to run it more and chew up the clock.
19:07
And then we also have slow pace and a sharp mush indicator.
19:09
So I'm going to go under NC State, Jiatek under 51 1/2.
19:15
Now let's talk some college hoops.
19:18
Couple college hoops games here caught my eye.
19:21
First one was the 7:30 PM tip, Vanderbilt and Nevada.
19:25
So this one is should be a good game.
19:27
It's on ESPNU. Both teams are four and O.
19:31
So both teams are playing very well to start the year.
19:33
But there's a very interesting opportunity here to back Nevada.
19:38
Now you guys know I love line moves.
19:40
But again, with line moves there becomes there comes a point
19:43
where has it moved so much to where it creates a buy lower
19:47
sell high opportunity. Obviously last night with the
19:50
over what a bad beat in the magic game.
19:52
So that's probably a bad example, but it's not just about
19:55
what side you like. It's what number you got.
19:57
So, for example, there was some money on Vanderbilt here this
20:00
game. Open Nevada as a four and a half
20:03
point favorite. The lines down down to 2 1/2.
20:06
So it's pretty clear here that early on you had some respected
20:08
money hit Nevada and or sorry, hit Vanderbilt and caused this
20:13
line to dip a little bit. But here's where it gets
20:15
interesting. When I looked at the Ken Palm
20:18
prediction, Ken Palm has Nevada winning by 6 points.
20:22
He's got him ranked higher, 38 in the country versus 86 for
20:27
Vanderbilt. I pop open Rhythm.
20:29
Rhythm is predicting Nevada to win by around three points.
20:34
So if Ken Palm's got him by 6 and Rhythms got them by about
20:37
around 3, and Ken Bom also has a rank much higher, I think this
20:41
creates an opportunity to buy low on Nevada.
20:43
That's what I'm going to do, guys.
20:44
I'm money lining Nevada. I got Nevada at -140 I believe
20:47
that was at FanDuel. But they're ranked much higher.
20:50
And I'm really going to bank on their offense, actually, both
20:53
offensively and defensively, their offensive efficiency,
20:56
their number 38, the Wolfpack versus 51 for Vandy.
21:00
But there's a huge difference defensively.
21:02
Vandy is 140 in the country. Defensive efficiency, Nevada is
21:07
45th. So better offense, better
21:10
defense, huge discrepancy in terms of three-point percentage,
21:14
48.6% for the Wolfpack, only 27.9% for Vanderbilt.
21:21
Effective field goal percentage, 5060% versus 54%.
21:25
So here's the thing. If Vanderbilt loses by three or
21:29
four, the early sharps obviously would cover the four and a half.
21:34
If Vanderbilt loses by, you know what, 3 or 4 at this point, you
21:40
lose if you get the late plus 2 1/2.
21:42
So I'm going to put a little faith into the Ken Palm
21:45
prediction again, if you give me Ken Palm has a team winning by 6
21:49
and again, rhythm by three and they're 2 1/2 in the market, I'm
21:53
going to buy low here and take Nevada.
21:54
Now this is a money line play for me.
21:56
I got Nevada at -140 But again, I'm going to buy low on a team
22:00
that maybe this line has moved a little bit too much and it's
22:03
created an opportunity to to buy low on the Wolfpack.
22:07
So let's go Wolfpack. I'm on Nevada, a buy low play
22:10
money line at -140 last bit of the night.
22:14
Let's stay up late and let's sweat the Dons.
22:17
Anyone know who the Dons are? That's right, San Francisco
22:20
Dons, they're playing Memphis and this one is interesting
22:24
because this is a very sharp dog to fave line move.
22:28
Now going into it, we have two more undefeated teams.
22:31
San Fran is 4 and O Memphis is 3 and O.
22:34
But what have we seen across the market?
22:36
All movement in favor of the Dons.
22:38
This game opened. And by the way, this is
22:40
technically a neutral site game, but it's in San Francisco.
22:43
I believe it's at the Chase Center, which is the the
22:45
Warriors new arena or not new anymore, but a few years ago.
22:49
So it's technically not their arena, but it kind of is their
22:51
arena. But anyway, this game opened
22:54
Memphis -2 it's now flipped to San Fran -1 1/2 - 2.
23:00
So right off the bat when I saw that dog to fave line move
23:03
caught my eye, I said, hey, we got some big money here going on
23:06
the Dons. Now if we look at a money line
23:09
play here, really good splits. So let's start off with
23:12
DraftKings. 54% of spread bets, 60% of spread dollars around the
23:17
Dons. So basically 5050 line move and
23:19
low bets higher dollars money line 43 percent, 64% dollars.
23:25
So both the spread and the money line really good low bets,
23:27
higher dollars discrepancies. Now Rhythm has the Dons winning
23:31
by about one. Ken Palm has them losing by two.
23:35
So if you tell me you want to buy low Memphis +2, I get it.
23:39
But I'm going to kind of stick with the market on this one in
23:43
this this edge. And it does seem kind of fishy
23:45
because again, Memphis is kind of a bigger name school.
23:48
San Fran is kind of a smaller school.
23:49
Yet dog to fave in favor of San Fran tells me smart money here
23:53
on the San Francisco Dons. And then if you dig a little bit
23:57
deeper in terms in terms of some of these stats, advanced
23:59
analytics, we have the Dons with a better turnover percentage.
24:04
They're giving up around 18 turnovers or 18% turnover
24:08
percentage versus 20% for Memphis.
24:10
So basically San Fran takes care of the ball better.
24:13
They also already better offensive rebound percentage
24:15
team ranking 121 in the country versus 198 for Memphis.
24:20
Also we have a better free throw percentage, slightly 78% versus
24:24
76%. And if you look at bench minutes
24:27
again, you have more, you know, fresher bodies basically and
24:31
more contributing players, 33% versus 21% for Memphis.
24:36
And I just noticed points against Memphis is giving up 73
24:40
a game. San Fran's only giving up sixty
24:42
a game. So they play stingier defense.
24:45
So again, dog to fave line move. They're playing in their
24:47
backyard. I'm going to go Don's to win
24:50
this damn game hopefully -120 on the money line.
24:53
And that was available at FanDuel.
24:55
So San Fran in Nevada, money lines, Georgia Tech under 51 1/2
25:00
and can we get 2 out of three? Thursday Night Football at the
25:02
dog pound under 36 1/2 chub under 53 1/2 in Cleveland plus 3
25:07
1/2, a six pack. Can we eke out a a winner of
25:10
hopefully a four out of six and go four and two?
25:13
That is the goal. So that about does it everybody.
25:16
Another pod here in the books as we wrap up a big Thirsty
25:19
Thursday. But this is the part of the pod
25:21
where we wrap it up. And I start by asking a favor of
25:24
you. Can you do me a solid?
25:25
Can you help me grow this podcast by giving it a five star
25:28
review? If you're listening on Spotify
25:30
or iTunes again, click the five stars.
25:32
It would mean a lot to me. Help us to continue to grow the
25:34
pod, continue to gain some momentum.
25:36
If you want to recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is great.
25:39
If you want to leave a nice review or comment, I love that
25:42
as well. So please, five stars would mean
25:44
a lot to me. Secondly, if you want to learn
25:46
more about data-driven, sharp, contrarian sports betting, or
25:49
you have that friend or colleague or family member in
25:52
your life who loves betting but probably makes all the rookie
25:55
mistakes still that's with their heart and not their head.
25:58
Doesn't even look at line movement or percentages or
26:00
system matches. Just bets on bias and
26:03
favoritism. You know what you should do for
26:05
Christmas gift or Hanukkah gift or whatever their birthday you
26:09
know you should do. You should buy them the
26:10
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:12
That's my baby. I wrote it a few years ago.
26:14
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
26:16
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
26:18
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
26:22
how to go contrarian, bankroll management, all included in the
26:25
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:26
So pick one up and of course when you bring it to the sports
26:29
book, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or a ginger
26:32
ale next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
26:35
day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
26:37
My two favorite sports betting apps.
26:39
They help me win. They're going to help you win
26:41
because it's just more good data to go off of.
26:43
And again, data don't lie. There's no bias when it comes to
26:46
data. That's why I like them.
26:48
So Rhythm great for their AI backed models and predictions
26:50
for best bets, game bets and player props.
26:53
And juice real of course, where you can now access every all
26:57
systems go best bet as well as arbitrage opportunities, sharp
27:00
mush indicators. You can also get betting dollar
27:03
breakdowns on all side money lines and totals for all sports
27:07
and you can maybe if you want, follow the AI Robo Jackson best
27:11
bet picks as well, but all included when you sign up for
27:14
both rhythm and juice reel. So download the app and start a
27:17
7 day free trial. So that about does it.
27:21
As I mentioned, another pod in the books before we get to a big
27:23
Friday tomorrow, wrapping up our our week here.
27:27
But First things first, let's try to produce a winning night
27:29
here for tonight, but I'm going to leave you with a couple
27:31
things. One, whether I see you at the
27:34
Borgata at Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
27:37
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
27:39
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
27:42
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
27:45
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
27:48
get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
27:49
runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
27:52
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
27:54
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when he cashed a big
27:57
ticket at Circa. Wherever it may be.
27:58
You're going to show me some nice tickets from last night.
28:01
It should have been even nicer, but still, I'll never complain
28:04
about a winning night. Show me a Towson ticket.
28:06
Sharp, obscure line move. Buffalo plus 1 1/2.
28:09
Ohio plus 1 1/2. Both outright winners.
28:12
Ohio under 47. Whatever you do, don't show me
28:16
the pick six that killed the under in the emo game.
28:18
Illinois Bama flew over, and that Magic game.
28:21
Two NBA professional teams combined to score 35 points in
28:26
the fourth quarter. That is just absolutely
28:28
pathetic. But again, winning night will
28:30
take it. But anyway, guys, parting words
28:32
as always, stay sharp, stay contrary and bet against the
28:35
public. Place yourself on the side of
28:36
the house. Always be with the smart money,
28:38
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
28:41
No, it won't, because there's no such thing as lock or a
28:43
guarantee in sports betting. And again, one reason why I
28:46
don't get down about, you know, you know, eking out a a 0.31
28:51
unit night is because we know sports betting is hard.
28:53
It's hard to produce winning nights consistently.
28:56
So we'll never get too high, never get too low, we'll stick
28:59
with the smart money because over the long run, it's not
29:01
going to win every game, but it's going to win a majority of
29:03
the games long term, 55 to 60%. So it's difficult.
29:07
The sports betting can be. We want to stick to the model,
29:10
stick to the blueprint. And if we can do that, make bets
29:12
with our head and not our heart, against the public, with the
29:15
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
29:18
If we can do that, and I'm confident that we can do it,
29:21
we're going to be successful sports bettors.
29:23
So have a great Thirsty Thursday guys.
29:25
Again, 6 pack, let's try to get 4 out of 6 and have a have a
29:28
good night here, but best of luck and I'll see you guys
29:31
tomorrow for episode 169 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
29:35
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
29:39
great Thirsty Thursday.