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8: Scenario Planning in a time of Uncertainty · Rittener Reflections

• Hello and welcome to Written Reflections. I am publishing episode 8 today, April 8th. The recording was taken a week ago when I was in North Carolina. And unfortunately, the audio quality did not come out as well as I would have hoped. And so I ask you to bear with me as you listen to this podcast, some of the areas that sound a little hard to hear. But I felt that the content and the discussion that was held during this episode is well worth your time. And I think it's very appropriate for the time that we are now experiencing this first part of April. We are going to talk about scenario planning. And if you think about everything we're going through right now with tariffs and some of the uncertainty about how companies and countries are going to address this, this particular topic, I believe offers some great insight, some great tools and ideas about how companies can best prepare and navigate the ever-increasing changes that we're all experiencing. And so I hope you'll enjoy this episode and I will go ahead and set it in motion right now. Thank you. Hello, this is Jeff Rittner and welcome back to Rittner Reflections, a forum to address the dynamic complex and essential nature of cross-border trade in our ever-changing world. Today I am here in North Carolina where I am spending a couple of weeks with my family enjoying the North Carolina sunshine and I would say rain and it's been a wonderful time with spending time with family. I'm also excited to be in North Carolina because I have an opportunity to host this podcast, this episode with a friend of mine, named Sheldon Bernard and Sheldon also is in North Carolina. He lives here with his family. Sheldon and I got to know each other several months ago and we've discovered that we have a very common interest in this topic that we'll talk about today called scenario planning. Sheldon is the owner of the A440 Management LLC. This is a management consulting firm that specializes in helping organizations make decisions under uncertainty. And I thought there could be no better person than Sheldon to spend some time with because as you all know, I've been talking since the beginning of these podcasts about the time of uncertainty that we live in. And then all of us are feeling every single day this uncertainty as to what is going to to happen and especially what is going to happen in the world of cross-border trade. This is a really time of discussion with Sheldon because this is what he spends his time doing. I think he's going to have a lot of great insights for us. I'm really looking forward to having this discussion. With that, I would like to welcome you today, Sheldon. Great to be here with you in person. Jeff didn't mention that scenario planning, all of the uncertainty around trade is an area of overlap. But we had the same employer for a while, overlapped at 10 years there, although we never actually met. It's not surprising even how big that company is. But yeah, as Jeff mentioned, we're going to be spending some time talking about scenario planning, but I can give listeners an idea of why should anyone listen to my view on this. I've started a small advisory firm that spends most of its time on decision-making under uncertainty. And how that ties into scenario planning is there's just some situations where you necessarily can't model the right outcome. You may not even be able to get your arms around what that looks like other than using something like scenario planning. So it's something that we do quite a bit. I've done it while I was working at Intel. I've done it at PNG and in various other places in my working career. And it's just something I don't think enough companies use. And then if they are working with you, you can't do it. And then if they are working with you, you can't do it are using it, it ends up not being in a way that's helpful for them in their actual decision making. So we're a decision making firm. We basically help you de-risk whatever uncertain strategy you're working on. And we use a lot of these tools to do that. So that's us in a nutshell. We're also here based in North Carolina and upset that my UNC Tarr Hills are knocked out. Wow. But happy that they were they were even to be there in the first place. So yeah. here that are very happy to do. I'll bet they are. I've had a few. Yeah, this was a big basketball weekend. I think they actually had a host today. I think some of the games right here at the logo center. Yeah, it's been it's been a disappointment. But again, it's a scenario that we were prepared for. That's right. She knew. We have to say I come out here to North Carolina, you know, four five times a year. And one of the things I noticed is people really had a lot of fun. And I think that's a great thing are into college sports. If I'm here now, it's basketball, right? Because this is March Madness Inc. If I'm here in the fall, it's college football. And I've gone to places where it's like a place you eat and they've got TV screens and there's no shortage of games. There might be like five games. Our own team is playing. So it's a very popular thing here in North. Yeah. It's a big part of the culture. Yes. Well, listen, Sheldon, one of the reasons why I am so excited to spend some time with you on this topic is because over the last three months, I started this podcast in January over the last three months, I have communicated to my listeners over that we are living in a time of incredible uncertainty. And I started my first podcast by out on where I felt folks in the world of trade or I call cross border trade should be concerned. And think about it. So scenario planning fits so well because even though we've gone three months now down the road, everybody's from what I can tell seems to be just as uncertain as they were at the beginning of the year as as you watch what's happening day by day. You know, if you happen to watch the news. You know, I episode that I did a interview with some folks that were attending a trade conference next book controls. And one of the individuals said, yeah, there really wasn't a whole lot of new information. We all agreed at the end if we were to pick a word to describe the company, it was uncertainty. And because they left just as uncertain as when they were out. So I think this is kind of the world we're in this, especially in the world of cross border trade, which is what I'm focused on a lot is this this uncertainty of, you know, will there be tariffs will there not, you know, are there going to be further restrictions on export, you know, you know, should companies, you know, change their business model or their support. in anticipation of maybe not being able to do business in a certain country like China. And so this this uncertainty just kind of is pervasive and people get stuck. And so I'm really excited to talk to you because I know you this is what you say your time doing it and you've thought through these things. So I'm very excited to hear from you and get some ideas of what you're seeing in this area of uncertainty. 30 or 40 leaders executives, wide range of industries. And it has been really surprising to me and not in a positive way. The amount of folks that just are hoping that things go back to the way that they were. I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. And we wrote a series of LinkedIn articles that really had to be has a bunch of clients and others say, hey, sure, ones that I wrote that seems to have gotten quite a bit of traction was wait and see is not a good idea. Because if you're waiting for things to become more certain, that's not a good bet. Because as you and I were talking about earlier, even if there's a major shift in Congress in the midterms, see an unwinding of the uncertainty around policy for four years, and even if there's a major shift in the way the effect is not good. administration has composed the next presidential election, we're still going to have carryover for probably a year or two. So we're talking six years, a pretty significant uncertainty around trade policy. I just I don't think any company can afford to just sit and wait for that to resolve, not with the type of volatility and policy that we're seeing now. Right. And you know, we do spend some time in game theory. And I can tell you that there's, there's reaction. actions and nobody would be surprised about this way. We could do something and then the other parties do something back and forth back and forth. And that is just going to create, I think persistent uncertainty. And I think we've become low over the last 10 years into things being more manageable and easier to predict. I think those days are right. I could be wrong. But you know I'm not sure if you're hearing or seeing the same thing. Well, my experience, Sheldon over the last seven years, has been nothing but uncertain in chaos. Yeah. A lot of trade. Up until 2017. It was pretty routine. I mean, I think back to my career in Intel and what we were doing. It was pretty routine. I mean, we had, we had a program. At Intel that was built around being efficient. and be unpredictable. I was kind of how it was. And so when 2017 came, and I think the first thing that kind of dropped when the first Trump administration bore the tariffs. They used section 301. And they slapped, you know, tariffs directly on the products that we make and the equipment that we used. And it created quite a, you know, a firestorm of scrambling around trying to figure out what exactly what we're going to do. One of the things that made I think so much of the fact that we're going to do is that we're going to do something that we're going to So, it kind of really brought it home was for the first time we were actually now having to pay dollars. On the door. Yeah. Right on, you know, to bring goods in that we never used to. And so that got everybody's attention and we began to really put task force together and kind of deal with it. But again, it wasn't anticipated. And then it became a scramble. should consider? Yeah, I do. I think it's a bit of a reframe. And I guess we'll get a little bit into some of the concept may not have time for the detailed mechanics of scenario planning. But conceptually, scenario planning allows you to to stress test your thinking more than anything else. It's not about predicting the future. But it is about anticipating what might go wrong. Okay. An hour. Okay. And I think that's a good idea. And I think that's a good idea. And I think that's a good idea. And I think that's a good idea. And I are we prepared and are we resilient? So I think when it comes to the anticipation of some of the things that you've gone through, you might not be able to predict them, but we should be able to anticipate them. But when we kind of want to take an existing playbook into an uncertain world and just hope for the best, you're not even oriented mentally to be in a place to anticipate. And if you can't anticipate, you can't plan, you can't plan, you can't hedge. then your company just bears all that risk. And I think it's the cheapest insurance you could get. Yeah. Because to do a good scenario planning exercise is weeks. Yeah. People's time. We're talking about exposures that are 10 20 30% affirm value in some cases. Right. To me it's a no brainer. I just don't understand why it's not done more often and with more rigor. One of the things that we did to add into nothing many companies. to do this as we had a problem that's an annual basis that was called our annual risk management. And what we did, we looked at what were those, you know, catastrophic, you know, big ticket items that might happen that could have a huge impact on the enterprise. So we looked at those but you know my experience was it seemed like even though you, you kind of walk through the steps to think through some of those things is it's so difficult to really identify those that I'll give you two examples. that both of them. I don't think we did a very good job. The first one is nobody. No, buddy. I can go back to those charts we did to figure out the enterprise risk man. Nobody had pandemic. Yeah, right. That was one. Then the second one. And what should we have? Well, that's a good question. Yeah. But the second one. And this one we I can honestly say we should have. And we didn't. And I don't think we were alone. I think many, many companies the whole invasion of Ukraine Russia. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah Those signals were there for many years. And I'm not sure we fully, and that was another situation that caused huge impact. My view on that is a little bit different, but then, you know, our firm is grounded in the decision sciences on both sides. So the descriptive side, which is what do you actually do? Behavioral economics? Some of the more stuff that's rooted in judgment and decision making psychology, but then also justice. heavily on decision analysis, which is far more quantitative rules of logic. And one of the things that you learn from that is a lot of the exercises around scenario planning or future forecasting. I don't want to say they're useless, but they are useless, because information that can't alter your decisions has no value. Right. And that's a very tough thing for companies to get their arms around. We want to survey the whole world. Yeah. You get comfortable with looking at certain six. signals in certain places. And then you miss things like about a pandemic. What about political instability due to war or conflict in places that are impacting our supply chain significantly. Right. And because those have not been things that have happened persistently in the past the way that we gather and look at information gives us these blind spots. And what are the areas where we would have to change something we're doing and under what conditions? So you work from the failure of your supply chain backwards. So what that does is it gives you a very different set of of Vectors to look at Then you got to build your monitoring capability around those. What I see a lot of is the reverse is I don't remember who said it, but you know, we always were in the risk of fighting the last war. is, oh, this is the stuff that's traditionally been a problem. We sense it. I want to get more resolution into that. So we get a little bit more sensing, you go to more conferences. But that's usually another stuff that kills you. It's stuff that it's the punch that you don't see coming. I think all these said that's the one that knocks you out. Right. The only way that I know of to get there is to basically look at the, it's the NASA approach, right? Right. What are all the failure modes of this rocket? And that's really going to depend on the size of your firm. Right. A place like Intel could have had a whole team of people looking across everything. Smaller companies might not. And you might have to just do the exercise and then figure out. You can't monitor on the stuff. What's the stuff that's most crucial. And then be okay with the fact that you will not be able to predict it all right. But we can be more resilient than we are today. I believe that. This is a thing. one of the challenges in our situation is there's a lot of data of what might happen. Too much data. Yeah. Yeah. So we should be able to start as you said, begin to start working backwards and figure out what happens and so on. I mean, let's take tariffs. Yeah. Talking about tariffs. I've been talking about tariffs for a while now. And what's interesting is as of today, you know, March was March 21 today. No, we have said that levy are additionally. So we're going to start talking about tariffs. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah tariffs like at the shop, and steal the filament. They haven't actually happened yet. Right. And so there's time to do this scenario planning to figure out when these tariffs come, have we figured out where we need to adjust. I agree with you. And there's another piece I would add to that a yes and is the administration's playbook is out there for the world to see. So we know what the strategic intent is. Yes. We know what's on the. the hopper to be implemented. Right. It's just an issue of timing. So we can do a much better job of preparing for tariff scenarios and then we currently are in both no April 2nd that USNC day. Those negotiations occur with Ernest. It's not going to be a check the box exercise. Right. That's going to be. Right. Let's really look at this for real. Yeah. However I read this one. It was this morning I read that now there are some talking that that they may be. it back off. So, yeah, right. Your guess is as good as mine. Right. Right. Yeah. But I mean, I would be building scenarios around that. Yeah. So I had this thought you know we're talking about we business language is interesting because we all use the same terms but we always mean the same thing. And when you said folks came back from that event and we're talking about we're now as uncertain as we were before. Yeah. I keep hearing that same thing from leaders I'm talking to and I asked them like, you know, you know, you know, you know, you When you say uncertainty, what do you mean? How are you classifying? Yeah. And I get a wide range of answers. So I'll share with listeners framework we use called the glaive, which is like a long medieval thing like a cutting. It's like a weapon. Okay. Let's you from horseback like chop up stuff. I'm getting close to it. So this is our way of like being far back. Yeah. 50,000 foot and looking at uncertainty. Yeah. There's really two vectors to anything being uncertain. It's a theoretical underpinning of whatever the phenomena is. There's something that you're thinking about where there's like a very well-defined theory of how it works. And then that's one vector. And then the other one is how observable is that phenomenon. So there's no theory that explains it well. And it's something that you don't see all the time. That's a different type of uncertainty than there's a very disciplined theory. Everybody knows how it works. And it's something that we see all the time. Those two things are totally different in the way companies to approach them. So the first place we start in scenario planning is we start thinking about what type of uncertainty are you dealing with. I think Rumsfeld said there's what you don't know what you know what you don't know what you don't know that you don't know or some variable some variation. So the glaive helps us think about what type of uncertainty is it because that will help you as an organization design like what needs to be different about scenario planning. And some of the worst cases, the scenario planning we do, you wouldn't even call it scenario planning. The military calls it war gaming. Okay. And that is a different animal than a traditional scenario plan. In what way? Well, in a war game, you are not just thinking about the future, you're literally getting different players and actors to role play all the conflicting interests and behaviors, putting them together in the future. And that's what you're doing. And that's what you're doing. And that's what you're doing. And that's what you're doing. And that's what in a situation where you present those scenarios and you allow them the freedom and latitude to make real decisions that will have consequences. Right. And you do multiple rounds of that. And it will really allow you to stress in the way that you can't because of the type of uncertainty that you're dealing with. And the military has been doing it since well if we want to be honest thousands of years starting with the Prussians right. 'cause I'm realizing there's traditional scenario analysis. And then there's war gaming. And we're at a point now with some of the tariff stuff. Some companies probably need to think about doing some sort of a war gaming exercise. Because there's a tit for tat component of all of this. There's a cause effect component of this. And there's just stuff that all the brainstorming in the world won't tell you how someone with a different set of incentives is going to behave. Finding People Who Can Role Play That Sometimes We've Got A Hire Them As Retired Folks and Bring Them Into Room You're going to do that Role for Us in a couple of War Games is sort of a share of I'm Looking Forward to that yes yeah and Letting That Play Out in an Afternoon yes it is Phenomenal What You Can Get Right Yes so from Let's Take Contamers for a second from that perspective I understand on the war game is you would take your business, let's say you have manufacturing in Mexico, or you have manufacturing in China, and you have to bring goods into the US. So you would scenario plan what happens if we get a 35% tariff on goods coming from Mexico. Right. else, do we actually think about manufacturing, which by the way, if we made that choice, that's not going to happen overnight. No, right. So, exactly. So, how do you're going to pay? You will pay something in the interim. Yeah, exactly. So, I think that's, in my mind, that really, to me, confirms what you're saying that if you don't get going on this now, yeah, that just makes it more difficult and you may end up paying more until you can get to a place. that you've mitigated, right? So it sounds like it's really something that companies should be doing. Yeah, I mean I got a sad story. There is a firm that we've had a excellent relationship over the years but that a major exposure to federal contracting. Okay. We're carving on them to do some scenario plan, you know based on how competitive your industry is. 125 last year saying, hey, this is a real viable risk of concern of major cuts in the federal workforce and maybe some empowerment of funding and some of those things. You all should do scenario planning and then we should do an afternoon award game with your executive team because we think the wrecking balls coming. for 50 years, you're here for the first administration, so on and so forth. It's back and forth. And the point I kept making, which I think you're also making is there comes a point in time where you will just have to react. You're going to be on fire, so to speak, you will just have to react will not have the time with the luxury to plan. And when you do that, all of the empirical literature, all of the science and all of human history tells us that you will be subordinated. And so I think that's the point I kept making, which I optimal in your decisions. It's just the way it works. Yes. So the best time to buy that kind of insurance is not while you're sick. You don't get health insurance while you're sick. You get it before. And sure enough, we've all seen what happened beginning with USAID and some of the other things and they are in a crisis mode. And now it's difficult to get everybody together. Yeah. The other thing is some of those options that you will come up with. do a good scenario planning exercise, a good war game, it might take you three, four months to implement, right? Build the right partnerships. And when your hair is on fire, yes. And more importantly, everyone in your industry is now reacting. Those options won't even be available. Yeah. And that's what concerns me about where we are now. Right. And a lot of the executives I've met were like, we got it. We're just going to wait this out. Is when the war is over. And that's what we're going to do. And that's what we're going to do watering hole shrinks and all of you rush to the new watering hole, some of you won't be able to journey from it. Right. So you really want to be ahead. Yeah. Yeah. And I can vouch for that children. I, as I said earlier, you know, starting in 2017, we first felt the effects of tariffs. But in 2019, at the end of to really experience the effect of that's what controls. Oh, oh yeah. And, and you're right. You're forgetting about that sequence. Yeah. Yes, so Huawei was the first real hard. No, right? You can't do business. And you know what I found over the course of 2019 till I left last year, I mean we were in that here on fire crisis mug just entire time because the government was relentless publishing any listings and if you're editing you're doing business is on there you got to do something. The Russia situation came in sanctions. I agree with you that there was very little time at that moment to step back and scenario plan because you were just every single day and just trying to keep that business moving. Right. You could. I will though say just kind of one thing I did learn from that experience was while we went through the crisis. There was incredible motivation to find different solutions and to find the sort of things that you may have found. So although yes, it's better to scenario plan ahead of time and know your options so on. If you find yourself in that crisis, it's amazing what you will all of a sudden find to do differently. You know what I'm saying? Necessity is the mother of invention. Exactly. And I agree. Intel had a good culture of being able to think creatively while the building is on fire. I don't know that every company does that. But yeah, I agree. And some of the principles would still have been used even in the minute. I personally, I had P&L responsibility for division for a couple of years till I realized it's not my thing. Yeah. I live in the strategic world in special situations like making 100 decisions a week is not my thing. But I didn't realize that these tools and framework are not my thing. You can still apply them in the middle of the firefight. Absolutely. Yes. As long as you're willing to recognize it's going to feel a little bit more painful to slow down for an afternoon. But it's always beneficial to get better options. Yes. Always. Yes. No matter when. Yeah. I think it's better to do it before you really, really need them. Yeah. But I think you and I both know there's going to be a bunch of companies that will hear this and see what happens. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. say, well, still wait. So for those who are going to be in that camp, it's never too late. Make the investment. Yeah. Well, we found I think one of my points here is that we found that as we went through this and you and we're going through it, you don't know what's around the next corner. You know the long term, but you find yourself in some ways you are scenario planning. Yeah, as you're going forward, right. I talked earlier about we did this enterprise risk manager every year. And I found over the course of those five years. And I found six years that in light of all the different risks with the company, we had our unboxed trade. The trade risks continue to move up to the right corner year by year. That's interesting because we were assessing each year, assessing every year. And so the next year came around and we looked at what happened and where we saw things coming. And we would move that up because we knew the impact. And then with that risk analysis, you also talked about what were you going to do. And so we looked at what happened. And so we looked at what happened. And so we looked at what happened. And so to mitigate that. So in some ways it was kind of found ourselves in an ongoing scenario planning. We talked about the next you know the next rise and what we're going to do. Great, great, great point which I totally missed was the if you think of it as just an exercise you do once. I think it's beneficial but I think what you mentioned is where the real magic hits is you're doing the exercise on an ongoing basis and you're seeing how you risk landscape or you're thread environment. I mean, it's changing over time. Yes. So if you couple that with the point we're making earlier, start from where your supply chain or whatever's at risk fails. And you're going through that and mapping them all. It'll be far more resilient. Yeah. That's a beautiful marriage of concepts. Well, we've went on this enterprise risk, you know, matrix, we would have on on on the on the vertical we would have the impact. And what was the risk? you know, a few shipments might get stuck, or was this like, we won't do business at all. And then you had, you know, on the, on the horizontal, you had the likelihood. Right. So what, what is the likelihood? Is this something that, you know, once in a million years it might happen. The impact was always great. Because if you ask the question, what happens if we can't ship? It's a huge impact. So the impact was always kind of high from a trade perspective. But what changed over those that we were going to see more restrictions on China restrictions on equipment. Pretty soon you can't you can't ship the technology. Pretty soon you had to you couldn't even provide goods came from another country like Europe or Korea or Japan. And so I think what we found was that likelihood. And that's why our score as a trade organization kept going up to that right corner because of that because of that. Yeah, that that's pretty cool. We have a process. So our scenario. planning is one thing. Then scenario analysis, we separate is what you're talking about, where you're constantly taking a look and you're taking into information and updating. And what we found is that if you can get your decision makers or your leadership team to actually specify their risk tolerance. So it's like, Jeff, when anything when that stuff when that. Yeah, and you're telling me that it's more than a 30% yes, I want us to have insurance for yes Below 20 will deal with it right? When you can get those conversations going right so you can scenario plan then you're doing the analysis and it doesn't sound like you were spending Weeks on this stuff. No How much time do you think or percentage of your time as a leader of a trade organization were you spending on this? Well, there was you know that in typical company fashion, there was a timeline because you had no ours wasn't the only input out of the enterprise there was a lot so you had you had set times that you kind of had to deliver your analysis and then you had report outs and so on but if I added it all up I'm sure I spent oh 10 20 percent of my time on that just just looking at that and it was constant. It wasn't always in the format of that project or that was deliverable but it was just part of the venture of what we were doing because you know every time the US government new control. The first question that exactly is one of those what's the impact. And then so rather than trying to figure out how we're going to solve this, we had to spend time going to figure out the impact. So, because you want to know is it worth solving. Exactly. So I think yeah it was some I have to say that during those seven years I probably learned more in my career than any other time it was just that intense. You learn how to assess, you learn how to strategically plan, how to make sure you're looking at scenarios, you learn how to communicate. And then the whole podcast earlier on communication, because I had so many lessons on communication. And you have us in the compliance, I'll say in the compliance, in particular, we struggle with that. Very good understanding rules and so on that how do you communicate that in a way that people can really grasp it and do something about it. So. Yeah, there's a whole field of study on risk communication. And so, yeah, I think that's a good idea. And out there. So yeah, it's a big deal. So even in some of the most volatile times, it's 20% of your time. Yeah. Right. So for your any listener that that's thinking, Oh my goodness, this sounds like an overwhelming thing. I mean, I'm hearing you say when it was hitting the fan, this was 20%. That's cheap insurance. Yeah. - I love that point. If you have a process for your, at least getting a chance to revisit these, you can see the threat environment shifting over time. - Yes. - And as things become more and more imminent, then you can start having conversations around, do we share this risk? Do we mitigate it? Do we manage it? - Yeah. - And I can think of a couple of scenarios, knowing what I know now, I wish we had done that. when the situation happened to be able to move forward. And then instead it became a rather than 20% of my time, it became 60 or 70% of my time. Well, this has been a fascinating discussion. And I think both of us are very passionate about this. Absolutely. And I'd like to just as we wrap up just give you an opportunity to share with the list of business or some key messages that you want them to take away from our discussion. Sure. I think there's probably three things I want people to take away from the conversation. Is the first one is don't wait and see is not a good strategy as we've kind of talked about. And hopefully we've convinced you is you want to be able to preserve your optionality. That would be number two is to focus on the value of information. This concept of value of information that can't actually change your decisions has no value. And that's hard because you may have built up processes or habits to source a lot of data. But if it's not going to alter your choice, drop it and widen the aperture because as we're beginning to be more and more uncertain about more and more things. need to save some bandwidth to go a bit wider. And the third is even though I would highly recommend doing a rigorous version of this or a well facilitated war game, any scenario planning or risk simulation exercise that you do that's thoughtful is better than not to get anything. Right. Yeah. offer in terms of what you're doing? Yeah, absolutely. You can find me on LinkedIn. I think I'm the only Sheldon Bernard associated with A440 Management LLC out there. I'm happy to keep the conversation going. Our website is www.A440MGT.com. And this is our year for trying to create more awareness and comfort with these tools. So love to hear from people and looking forward to catching up with you. And I'm happy to keep the conversation going. And I'm happy to keep the conversation going. And I'm happy to keep the conversation going. And I again soon, Jeff. Yeah. Likewise. I think this topic has been incredibly timely given how so many of us are feeling. And I think you've given us some great ideas and some tools and some thoughts about how important this is. And I hope folks will take advantage of that. So thank you so much for joining me on written reflection. This has been a great conversation. I wish we could go on. Fantastic. But we'll have more time together. Looking forward to working with you as we go forward. So thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank Thank you everyone for listening today. This has been written in Reflections and I will be talking with all of you soon. Thank you.