Latest / The Mark Belling Podcast / Mark Belling Podcast #94: Why do experts always get things wrong (Covid, the trolley, no cash bail, etc.)?   Some theories will be explored on today's podcast.  Also, why is mass Muslim immigration such a disaster in America?   Yet another local soccer coach is nailed on sex pervert charges and our weekly football preview including a look at the huge Packers-Bears game.

Transcript

Mark Belling Podcast #94: Why do experts always get things wrong (Covid, the trolley, no cash bail, etc.)?   Some theories will be explored on today's podcast.  Also, why is mass Muslim immigration such a disaster in America?   Yet another local soccer coach is nailed on sex pervert charges and our weekly football preview including a look at the huge Packers-Bears game. · The Mark Belling Podcast

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  Speaker 2: Today we have a Quote of the Day. We don't
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  Speaker 2: have a quote of the day every day. Some days
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  Speaker 2: we put the quote of the day at the end
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  Speaker 2: of the program. Other days there's no quote of the
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  Speaker 2: day at all. Today's Quote of the Day starts the show.
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  Speaker 2: It's really good and it helps explain at least two
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: or three of the topics that we have on the show,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: including the very first one. The quote is from Thomas Sowell,
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: the brilliant conservative economist. He's been around forever. He's in
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: his nineties now, I believe, long time at the Hoover Institute,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: which is attached to Stamford, one of the most prominent,
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: maybe the most prominent and influential African American conservative ever.
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  Speaker 2: Here's his quote. It's very old quote anyway. It is
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: hard to imagine a more stupid or dangerous way of
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: of people who pay no price for being wrong. Never recall,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: I did a podcast I think last week dealing with
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: this whole concept of no skin in the game, it
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: means the same thing. I mean, kind of the point
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: that SOOL makes is don't let decisions be made by
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: people who don't suffer at all if they're wrong with
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: that decision. It doesn't mean that if you do have
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: a big stake in things, you might not make a
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: bad decision, but you have a lot more incentive to
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  Speaker 2: make the decision correctly if you suffer terribly if you're wrong. Now,
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  Speaker 2: I'm going to give you a brief example, which this
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: is not the first topic, but a very brief example
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  Speaker 2: of this. The CDC is now, I don't know if
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  Speaker 2: acknowledging is the right word, but is reporting data that
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  Speaker 2: it's had for some time. They believe that the number
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  Speaker 2: is They're saying at least ten ten children who have
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  Speaker 2: died because of or in relationship to receiving the COVID
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  Speaker 2: nineteen vaccine. Ten. No people will point out that ten
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  Speaker 2: is a tiny fraction of the number of children or
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  Speaker 2: all sorts of people who got the COVID vaccine, and
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  Speaker 2: that's correct, none the less, the number is ten. Yet
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  Speaker 2: the official recommendation of many experts was for children to
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  Speaker 2: be vaccinated against COVID nineteen. This proved so Well's point.
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  Speaker 2: All of the people who recommended the children get the
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  Speaker 2: COVID nineteen vaccine, what's happened to them? Nothing? For that matter,
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  Speaker 2: all the people who got everything wrong on COVID, all
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  Speaker 2: of the lockdown people, all of these dumbasses that serve
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  Speaker 2: as public health directors, and all the counties in Wisconsin.
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  Speaker 2: Did a single one of these morons ever get fired.
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  Speaker 2: Did Tony Evers clear out his idiots who were pushing
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  Speaker 2: all of these lockdowns and closing churches, all of which
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  Speaker 2: turned out to be a disaster, completely unnecessary, and none
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  Speaker 2: of which did anything to slow the spread of COVID,
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  Speaker 2: something that I think damn near everybody in America eventually got,
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  Speaker 2: which is why it's still around. But we have some
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  Speaker 2: immunity to it, because all of us now have immunity,
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  Speaker 2: and I runs nonetheless, of all the groups that were vaccinated,
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  Speaker 2: the group that simply did not need it were children.
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  Speaker 2: Because children not only when they got exposed to COVID,
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  Speaker 2: did not get very sick at all, if at all.
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  Speaker 2: Childhood deaths of COVID are virtually non existent. There's this
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  Speaker 2: few scattered, but in every one of those cases, those
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  Speaker 2: children had numerous other health problems that contributed or may
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: have been the primary cause. Yet you had parents, and
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  Speaker 2: I talked about this time. I just could not fathom
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  Speaker 2: a parent being so stupid as to vaccinate their child
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  Speaker 2: against a disease that can't hurt the child. And I'm
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  Speaker 2: not an anti vaxer, and I wasn't even an anti
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  Speaker 2: COVID vaxer. I'm an old fart. I got the COVID vaccine.
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  Speaker 2: I sized it up that, okay, fine, if I got COVID,
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  Speaker 2: it might not be a good thing for me, given
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  Speaker 2: that people in my age group are the ones that
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  Speaker 2: are likely or to die of COVID. I'm not against
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  Speaker 2: all the childhood vaccines, although I have a more open
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  Speaker 2: mind on it than I did fifteen or twenty years ago.
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  Speaker 2: But the things that I see children being vaccinated for
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  Speaker 2: are things the children can get real sick from, or
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  Speaker 2: some can even die well. Measles, but I remember having
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: I remember having the both of them. Do you remember
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: having the both of them? You do remember it? It was,
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: and I remember it was first. It was I had
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: measles before I had chicken pox. They were similar because
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  Speaker 2: they both itched and they both had a rash. But
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  Speaker 2: I really say, I mean I get Without regard to
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  Speaker 2: your thoughts on vaccines, why people would say, because kids
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  Speaker 2: get it and it is painful and it can occasionally
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  Speaker 2: cause severe complications. All the other things rebella, whooping cough, polio,
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: et cetera. But this, it would like be like me
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  Speaker 2: getting vaccinated against pregnancy. I can't get pregnant yet experts
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  Speaker 2: push this. Experts, experts, experts and the parents who followed
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  Speaker 2: their guy for the people who actually believe these experts.
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  Speaker 2: Now we're going to dive into this tendency for so
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: called experts to always be wrong in just a moment here,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: and I've got a couple of theories one and a
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: very interesting essay as to why that is. First, when
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: it comes to shipping packaging, industrial supplies, and equipment, many
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: suppliers offer endlessiles of product. You line knows what you
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: can't do with endlessiles of product. Test the quality of
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  Speaker 2: each product and sure everything is in stock and ready
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  Speaker 2: to ship the same day, and have a team available
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: twenty four to seven to answer your product questions. You
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• 6:42
  Speaker 2: often use in their own business experience. The you line
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: difference today visit you line dot com. The listener sent
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: me this. There's a website called Real Clear Politics. They've
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: now taken that brand and they have Real Clear this
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: and Real Clear That. It's a website that leans conservative
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: and they now cover a number of issues beyond politics.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: And this one is Real Clear Science. But the Real
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Clear is their brand. And so it's a brief essay
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: from a guy ex a woman named Mitzi Perdue, and
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: she offers a theory as to why experts in almost
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: any field have a tendency to get not the little things,
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  Speaker 2: but the big things wrong, the real big things. Before
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  Speaker 2: I even get into her piece, I'll just mentioned another word.
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  Speaker 2: For instance, you can have an expert in, for example,
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  Speaker 2: the weather. And you know we make fun of the
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: weather people, but often the storm that we had this
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: past weekend, they said the winter storm morning would end
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: at six o'clock Sunday morning, and I was up at
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  Speaker 2: five thirty. I'm telling you, it stops snowing at six.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: By six thirty, the skies were clear. I got up
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: at five thirty. At all I saw was that cloudy, misty,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: snow was all gray and all all of that. I mean,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: they're usually in the short term, but in the long haul,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: almost every single thing they said twenty five years ago
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  Speaker 2: about what would happened with climate change has turned out
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  Speaker 2: to be wrong. Yet we continue to be able well
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: act their experts. They're experts, they're experts, they're experts. The piece,
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: This is a quote from Paul Krugman. Paul Krugman is
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: he's one of the most fun liberals to make fun
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: of because he's a big, pompous ass. He I don't
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: know if he still writes it, because I don't read
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: it as much. The New York Times is where he was.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: He was there. He's a big economist who had a
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: column with the New York Times, and he's a big
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: time lefty and I'm big no it all and wrong always.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: You could just have a cottage if you could write
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: a book and all of the things that Krugman has
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  Speaker 2: written over the years and how none of them happened.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: In fact, the exact opposite. This is what he wrote. Obviously,
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: if you did this to me and you went back
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  Speaker 2: on all the things that I said over thirty six years,
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: I'm sure you'd be able to pull out a bunch
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: of idiotic things as well. I think on the overall, however,
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  Speaker 2: I've spotted zillions of transit have been way ahead of
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: the curve, and the number of times I've been able
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: to say I told you so. Things that I thought
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: were fairly obvious, like nobody's gonna ride the stupid trolley
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: clearly turned out to be right of me. The ex
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: nod no, no, no, no. If he was, how would
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: you know? You're just a big mouth that's got a
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: microphone him. Yeah, you're right, That's all I am. Who
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: was right and who is wrong? Anyway, here's the quote
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: from Krugman again. He said so many stupid things over
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  Speaker 2: the years, So she's gonna go out and cherry pick
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: the most, probably the dumbest thing he ever said. The
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: internet will have no more economic impact than the fax machine. Ha,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: that's he wrote. That's okay, Krugman call on that than others.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: US intelligence insisted the Afghan government would hold for months
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: after the American withdrawal. It fell in eleven days. Military
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: analysts around the world predicted Kaiev would fall within seventy
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: two hours. In February of twenty twenty two. Of course
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: Kaiev Ukraine. It never did. The media lined up to
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: predict that Harry Potter would flop because kids no longer
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: read Harry Potter sold half a billion copies. Those were
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: not fringe voices. These were the crowned heads of their domains, credentialed, lauded,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: confident experts. Their expertise was real, but their predictions were wrong.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Why are experts so often and so publicly wrong? The
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: answer comes from the ancient Greek poet arche Lochus, whose
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: wisdom still matters today. Quote. The fox knows many things,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: but the hedgehog knows one big thing. Hedgehogs are deep specialists.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: They master one domain, seeing the world through a narrow lens.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Their training encourages a single track that says, double down,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: go deep, defend your turf. Foxes are integrators, generalists who
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: pull ideas some different fields and adapt as reality demands.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: Foxes do not just tolerate ambiguity, they thrive at it. Now,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: the point that's being made here is that the hedgehog
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: knows one thing and knows it really really no. But
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: the fox, the wisely fox, I don't know a lot
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: about any particular thing. But he knows a lot about
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: everything and is filled with constant doubt and is open minded. Now,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: the point that's being drawn here is that the hedgehog,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: the one who knows the one thing so closely, that's
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: the expert. The experts are knowledgeable and the one thing.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: But say the loudmouth behind the microphone me, I don't
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: know what am I an expert in. Look, maybe two things.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: I think I'm an expert in how to do talk radio,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: and I have some expertise and understanding horse racing very
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: very hard. Beyond that nothing, I'm a generalist, but I
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: have an open mind, and I'm able to take a
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: look at how one thing affects everything else and what
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: the ripple effect is. And I have common sense, and
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: I am not somebody who's tied to a decision on
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: the basis of having a stake in it. Back to
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: the piece, Psychologist Philip Tetlock spend twenty years tracking expert predictions.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: What a great thing to do with this guy? He
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: tracks expert predictions. First of all, that what a great
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: thing to do, because I mean, you're just gonna have
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: a field day. I've been able to write all the
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: stupid things that people claim. I mean that would have
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: to act. If you're gonna be out there in a
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: field and like track things, that'd be a fun thing
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: to do. The downside is you got to wait a
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: long time to pull this stuff up. But if you're
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: doing it a long time, you know, if you've been
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: doing it for thirty years, you just keep up. Okay,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: here's what this moron set in nineteen ninety five, and
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: so yeah, sorry. Philip Tetlock predictions about world events. In
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: his two decade study, Tetlog catalogued more than twenty eight
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: thousand expert predictions and found that experts were slightly less
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: accurate than a random coin toss. So what he did
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: after twenty eight thousand decisions and then calculate what the
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: experts said and so on, and he found, you know,
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: coin toss, you're gonna be right half the time. He
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: found that the experts were correct slightly less us than
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: half the time. As it decided, And I'll get back
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: to the piece. One of the things that some actual
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: experts in a certain field do is go against the
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: other experts, which becomes kind of problematic because now you
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: have a bunch of other experts, just the agriss agree
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: of the first experts. But here's an example of that
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: in stock market. In investing, one of the things that
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: so called contrary investors do is they take a look.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: When they say, see on the stock market, sentiment is
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: overwhelmingly bullish, they say, that's the time to sell. That
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: the crowd is completely wrong. And there is some logic
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: behind this. Let's imagine all these people are overwhelmingly bullish. Well,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: that means they're fully invested. When you're fully invested, you
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: don't have any more to invest. It's all in, so
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: there's no more new money to come in. There's only
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: one place for stocks to go, and that's down. Likewise,
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: this is hard to do. I've been correct in it
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: a few times in my life. When everybody is completely
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: negative and sour on something, that's the time to dive
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: in and be optimistic. I wrote a column and it
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: was either OA at our Own nine. It was after
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: the housing crash, when the credit markets fell apart and
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: so on, and I said that this is the greatest
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: opportunity by housing in my lifetime. I wasn't smart enough
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: to do any didn't do anything about it. I mean,
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: I talked forever and ever and ever about you know,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Paul and I were going on these cruises and we're
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: staying in Florida, and we were staying in a hotel
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: that it was on the North Strip in Miami Beach,
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: and there were all these abandoned new high rises that
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: they started up in stopped construction on, just just sitting
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: there in which they gave up because the funding dried up. Well,
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: a bunch of investors, mostly foreigners in South America, came up,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: brought up the whole buildings or brought up three four,
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: five hundred of those condo units, and they're all billionaires
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: because of it. I was right in the overall, but
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: wasn't smart enough to do anything about it. The other
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: thing was, I remember my call when the stock market
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: bottomed out in March of nine. This was two months
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: into Obama's presidency. It was again during my cruise, and
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: I told the Cruiz group that I think that the
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: stock market has bottomed out, And it was simply based
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: on you know, we had, remember the credit market seized
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: up in seven eight. The recession occurred as a result
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: of that. We had twenty three months in a row
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: of negative economic activity. And finally there was a positive.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: It was simply, there's only so bad that certain things
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: can get. And I remember saying this, I think we
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: bottomed out, And in fact that was the bottom of
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: the stock market and the beginning of the rally that
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: occurred during Obama. But a lot of people, particularly those
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: people were stock work. Is like going a rally during Obama.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: There were slaves to this. No again, I could probably
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: come up with any number of things in which I
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: followed the lead of what experts were. But it's an
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: indication that breaking ranks from expertise and a consensus of
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: experts will usually have your right rather than wrong. Anyway,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: to the piece, now, the writer is quoting this psychologist Telllock,
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: who pointed out that he went back and studied over
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: decades twenty eight thousand expert predictions and found that the
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: experts were slightly less than half were wrong slightly more
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: than half the time. Quote. The question he posed was.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: The questions he posed were simple ones with yes or
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: no answers. For example, would the Soviet Union collapse in
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: five years? So that would have been a question probably
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: asked in the late eighties, would would a major war
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: break out again? And again the hedgehogs. The deep experts
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: failed dramatically. The generalists, however, did substantially better than chance.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Their secret was breadth of perspective and adaptability, the classic
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: traits of foxes. Experts failed because of tunnel vision, like
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: photographers using a telephoto lens. Hedgehogs so only a narrow
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: slice of reality and can go back to COVID. The
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: people who focused only on the one thing we have
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: to stop the spread of the virus and didn't consider
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: anything else. How actual humans behave the devastating impacts and
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: society of locking things down, the horrifying impact on education,
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: of keeping children out of school, the panic and depression
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: that's set in when you scared people to death, Not
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: to mention your failure to question the whole premise in
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: the first place, which is why should we even try
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: to stop the spread of the virus. If the virus
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: is out there, the virus if like every other virus
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: known demand The ones that are easily spread eventually effect
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: virtually everybody. The ones that are harder to spread, that
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: can only be spread saying blood to blood, contact or sex,
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: and so on, they affect everybody that engages in those
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: kinds of things, but they don't affect the general population.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: But again they didn't question any of that. They just
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: stuck to their thing. This virus is dangerous and therefore
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: we have to stop it from spreading. And couldn't see
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: outside that. And then of course the problem with the
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: people who just knee jerk follow this, And I can
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: tell you who the people are that I likeliest to
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: knee jerk follow what the consensus of experts say. People
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: that have no self confidence in their decision making. And
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: this would almost entirely be liberals. No, why you've got
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: to think this one through. Why would liberals have no
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: self confidence in their decision making? The answer is because
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: they've never faced up to it. But deep down, back
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: in there, they know that they've always been wrong. They've
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: always been wrong. So therefore they gravitate because they think
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: that they're smart. They gravitate toward what experts say and
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: just glom onto that, as opposed to do like me,
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: who aren't smart enough to listen to the experts. Back
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: to the piece. The deeper someone goes into a field,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: the more their framework, their one big thing, becomes their
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: only lens. Let me give you a horse racing analogy.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: Do you want a horse racing analogy? There are zillions
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: of factors that can go into how well a horse
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: will do over its career or even who's going to
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: do well in a specific races. I'm telling you zillions.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: But there are some people, the biggest single group of
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: you know, you talk about one issue people. One issue
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: people on horse racing are people that are slaves to
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: speed figures. And indeed, of all the things you look
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: at in a race of speed figure is probably the
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: most important thing. Obviously, faster horses are likely to win
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: the slower horses, but there's a lot of other factors
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: beyond simply how fast they read in the past that
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: apply here and there are simple I won't look at
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: anything else anything well, but there's seven other speedy horses
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: in the room. Nothing. Of course, it becomes complicated when
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: you've got a way fifty nine different factors and then
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: decide which one is where I add more. But they
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: just they'll focus on the one thing. And this is
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: the point that's being referenced here. Somebody that's a deep
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: expert in one particular thing focuses only on that. Let
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: me give you another example. This is an old one.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: It's been going on forever and ever and ever. Let's
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: imagine you got a heart problem. You go to a cardiologist.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: I'm telling you, the cardiologist is going to tell you
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: to put you on meds. Then you go to the
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: heart surgeon. The heart surgeon's gonna say you need surgery.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: The cardiologist doesn't do surgery. They prescribe meds. Heart surgeons
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: do surgery. So of course they both are gonna have
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: the bias to recommend that you do the thing that
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: they're into. Practors don't for scripe medication other than maybe
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: one or two things. I don't think any I'm not
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: sure though, but I mean I'm to say so. Therefore,
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: they have a bias toward leaning against it. They may
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: be right in one's person specific thing, but because that's
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: the thing that they know, they don't see the larger
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: overall view of Okay, this one might actually need it,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: whereas this one over here they just need to loosen
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: their muscles up. Whatever the thing. Anyway, back to the piece,
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: Some say, only half jokingly, that science advances one funeral
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: at a time. It is a good line. They say
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: this because once someone holds a particular view that view
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: can become part of their identity. Oh I point this
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: out all the time. Why are liberals liberal? Because they're liberal?
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: They're terrified of abandoning their liberalness because they become part
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: of their identity. They don't want to become like one
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: of us. They would rather be wrong and hang around
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: in their stupid lefty crowd because that's such an important
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: part of their identification. I think you certainly see this
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: with the very dangerous hacks and the schools in child
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: psychology that are encouraging boys to chop off their cladinguses
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: and girls that chop off their boobs. Once they've decided
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: that this is a good thing to do, it doesn't
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: matter how much evidence we have that we're destroying people's lives.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: They're going to keep doing it. Plus, of course, the
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: rationalization coming in this is how they're making their money.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Every child that they chop up is dollar signs for them.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: But that's no excuse, for example, for the boards of
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: directors of say children's hospital, to go ahead and allow
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: these people to do it. Of Course, the guy that
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: chops off the little girl's boom is going to be
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: somebody in favor of that. That's where they get their buddy,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: and maybe they sincerely believe it, but it doesn't mean
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: they're right. Will experts say this? So what again? They're
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: looking at the short trip the girl thinks that she's
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: a boy. The longer term view would be, maybe she's
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: gonna change her mind in a year or two or
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: three or four or five or six or how are
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: you gonna pump all these hormones into a body that
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: was naturally producing female hormones? Isn't this gonna create one
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: big giant mix And the next thing you know, you've
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: got somebody as screwed up as say Morgan Geyser, somebody
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: who I think is a just a walking example of
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: what happens when quacks were called. Experts dive into somebody
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: with problems and make them all worse back of the bees.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: When entire disciplines fall victim to this kind of thinking,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: you get the worst effects of hedgehog thinking. You get
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: a whole field in which brilliant people are confidently yet
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: s caacularly wrong. Journalists foxes in a hedgehog world. Now,
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: of course, the media is supposed to be the people
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: that would question all of this. They're supposed to be generalists.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: But most people know who go into the media are
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: just the opposite. They accept what the experts supposedly have
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: to say, rather than constantly challenging them. They are vicious
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: towards skeptics when they're the ones that are supposed to
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: be the skeptics. For example, when Tom Barrett's running around
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: saying I'm gonna rip up a bunch of streets and
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: put train tracks down, the few people are supposed to
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: challenge that, to come up with all the ideas why
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: that's rowing and make them instead no, no, no, no, less,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: it's a good thing what the writer says about this.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: So where do we find foxes? One place is supposed
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: to be journalism. The best journalists are forced to be
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: foxes every day. They deal with conflicting accounts, unexpected outcomes,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: and situations where things they were sure of turn out
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: to be turnout not to be. So the piece goes on,
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: let me move to a topic that I think fits
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: this overall general theme at least a little bit. So
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: Colum in the Wall Street General Today and Barton swam
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: and it deals with it starts with the disaster of
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: Somali immigration to the United States. I mean the whole
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: term Somali is becoming a punchline on the High Seas.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: When you think of Somalis, what do you think of pirates?
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: When you think of Somalis in America, what do you
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: think of about scammers? It's obviously unfair to the Somalis
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: and the high Seeds that aren't pirates, and it's unfair
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: to the Somalis who aren't scammers. Nonetheless, Burton Swim is
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: an interesting piece here, and it eventually goes beyond the
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: Somalis and just points out why mass immigration of Muslim
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: Muslim populations simply isn't going to work in the Western world,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: and it's because the Western world is not premised on
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: the way Muslims think. It's it's premised on Judeo Christian ideology,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: which is essentially secular. Whereas Muslims can't think in anything
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: other than their religious terms. They believe that only they
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: can make good decisions and only their thinking is tolerable
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: everyone else should die, which is the exact opposite of
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: how a Judeo Christian society that believes in openness and
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: freedom would think. Here's his piece. He writes, if you
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: wanted to invent a parable of modern liberalism's failure. You'd
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: have to work hard to top the story of Somalis,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: immigrants and US citizens alike builking Minnesota's social welfare system.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: So enormous and brazen was the theft that The New
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: York Times treated it with a competent and mostly unflinching article,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: which is the only reason anybody outside the small world
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: of conservative punditry now knows about it. We read this
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: piece on the podcast yesterday, and as I mentioned, now,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: the entire media is aware that this has been going on.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: But as I said, doing that, this scandal was going
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: on forever and ever and ever at effort, everybody from
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: the governor of Minnesota to the media and everybody else
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: looked the other way because they didn't want to accept
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: the tens of thousands of Somali's who are in Minnesota
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: were out and now crooks, I don't want to accept it.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: So therefore we're just not gonna look at it. Back
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: to the piece, the time it took for the Minnesota
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: story to make its way into national headlines is itself
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: part of the problem. Federal prosecutors have already convicted fifty
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: nine of the fraudsters which tells you how long the
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: thing has been happening. A few local media outlets, notably
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: KAI Minneapolis, Saint Paul's NBC affiliate, have covered the story
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: since the first indictments. Scott Johnson, the Minnesota based attorney
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: on power Line blog co founder, has reported on some
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Malia related fraud since at least twenty eighteen. In mid November,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: the journalist Arman Rosen penda superb seven thousand word essay
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: about the fiasco for the magazine County Highway. The Somali
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: fraud story is in some respects akin to the so
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: called grooming scandal in Britain, in which gangs of mostly
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: Pakistani men sexually abused young girls, even as the country's
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: government and news media looked the other way, terrified by
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: accusations of racism or Islamophobia. You may be familiar with
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: the grooming scandal in England. It's not happening, it's not happening.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: It's not happening, and the reasons people did not want
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: to accept that they were happening. They did not want
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: to acknowledge that huge numbers of Pakistani immigrants believed it
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: was perfectly fine to abuse young girls sexually that's what
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: they think, but people didn't want to admit that. That's
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: the thing. So the fact that it was going on,
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: they're looking the other way, pretended it's not happening, and
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: it's not happened. So it's going on really right in
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: front of everybody, but they're just trying so hard not
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: to see it. Back to the peace in the Twin Cities,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: state authorities couldn't rouse themselves to stop the theft hundreds
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: of millions of dollars siphoned from medicaid, housing and other
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: welfare programs. It is to the great credit of the
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: US Justice Department, under administrations of both parties, that it
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: didn't allow the perpetrator's race, religion, or country of origin
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: to hinder the prosecution of crime. Both scandals in the
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: UK and Minnesota raise a question most of us would
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: rather not consider, that of large scale immigration from predominantly
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: Muslim countries. It's true that other ethnic immigrant groups, Italians
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: in the early twentieth century, most famously imported forms of
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: criminality from the home country. It's also true that Minnesota's
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: roughly eighty thousand strong Somali community contains many industrious people
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: and good citizens, but an unbiased observer could be forgiven
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: for thinking Minnesota's Somali population is not capable of assimilation. Now,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: let me interject this is part of the problem. Immigrants
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: who come to the United States because they want to assimilate.
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: They come into Ellis Island and the look at the
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: famous opening of Godfather Part two when young Vido curleone,
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: after you know, his father's dead, his mother's been killed,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: to kill his brother, escapes, gets on the ship the
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: age of nine comes in and there he's looking at
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: the Statue of Liberty and the whole thing with all
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: these other immigrants that or other. The look of this
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: in America, it's the land of opportunity. They want to
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: be part of this. When you have people who come
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: into these others, not just the United States, but France,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: et cetera, who hate those countries and hate their lifestyle
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: and hate the fact that they're moving to predominantly Jenaeo
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Christian societies, you're never going to get assimilation from them.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: And if they're not going to assimilate, they will never
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: be anything other than a terrible threat to the way
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: of life and the kind that they're going to. As
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: jinguistic as it sounds there's no value added in bringing
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: in somebody who hates the place that they're coming to.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: And it's a huge portion of the problem that we've
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: had with illegal immigration to the United States. Those who
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: have come here and wanted to be here and want
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: to be Americans, they're really not much of a problem.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: It's the ones that are coming here because they realize
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: that America is so stupid that we give away all
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: sorts of things for free and we don't punish criminals, etc.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: That are the problem. Back to the piece from Rosen's
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: essay quote, bad actors within the community would approach potential
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: co conspirators without any fear of betrayal. The point he's
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: making his es in the Somali community. When Somalia would
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: go up to another Somalia and ask him, say, do
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: you want to get in on the scam that we have?
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: They never had a concern that they'd be ratted out
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: by this Amali that even if they'd say no, they
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: knew that the Somali would rather be loyal to the
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: fellow Somali crook than actually telling American authority because they
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: knew that these all of the Somalis couldn't give a
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: crap about right and wrong, or would the American authorities
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: want that even if they disapprove what the fellow Somali
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: was going to do, they would never betray them because
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: their Somali identity was far more important to them than
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: any kind of you know, American value that would be
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: in continuing. Even the people who said no to phenomenal
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: offers of tens of thousands of dollars in free taxpayer
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: money didn't inform the authorities that a major community wide
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: fraud against the public was in progress, potentially criminal oddities
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: when almost totally unreported to anyone in government. The FBI
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: learned about quote Feeding Our Future, a nonprofit that was
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: one of the main vehicles of fraud, from a whistleblower
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: in the Department of Education, and not from any of
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: the scam's ground level witnesses or participants. Ponders, You could
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: look to some of these scams that have gone on
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: in the social service community in Milwaukee, almost no whistleblowers
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: from within any of them. And then the folly of US,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I mean SEC is apparently finally going under. How could
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: that piece of crap organization have taken decades to finally
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: get rid of it's sort of the same thing. Back
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: to the piece here, which is dealing with this grave
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: difficulty in mass immigration of Muslims who do not share
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: the kinds of values that exist in countries that are
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: premise not on Muslim values but Judeo Christian values, ponders
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: some observations made recently by the British historian Tom Holland.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: His book Dominion contends that Christianity has left an imprint
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: on the West so deep as to be ineradicable and
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: imperceptible even atheists and nations once Christianized thinking Christian terms
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: without knowing it. Only a Christian nation, I suspect, Holland
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: would say, would invent a social welfare system as lavish
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: and easily exploitable as Minnesota's. Now here's the point that
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: he's making in back in Somalia, they never have systems
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: like this. Why because the Somalians though, if you have
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: a system so easily to scam, are Somalians will scam it.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: But only in the good nature, trusting West when you
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: set something like this up, making us obviously open season
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: for people who lack any type of value at all.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Back to the peace Essentially quote this is Holland. Essentially,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: what Christianity has that Islam does not is a concept
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: of the secular. Let me interject, what does that mean
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: the secular. It's a set of values that we have
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: that aren't particularly religious, but that everybody should follow without
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: regard to what religion you have. See, most Muslims don't
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: think that way. They think of Muslim law and they
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: think that's what the law should be. That they can't
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: disconnect the two of them. This is where jihad and
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: indefada and all of these things come from. Back to
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: the pace, Holland remarked in a September podcast interview. From
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: its beginning, he points out, Christianity has acknowledged that some
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: parts of human society will function outside the demands of revelation.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: Think of Jesus as imperative to render to Caesar what
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: is Caesar's and to God what is God's. Islam classically
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: acknowledges no such sphere. I think Islam is uniquely indigestible
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: for our secular mindset, he says, Minnesota Somali population plainly
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: does not think of itself as digestible, But larger scale,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: large scale Muslim immigration is a far bigger problem for
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: Europe than for America, and in a curious way, Holland's
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: reflections shed light on the immigration problem of the US
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: does have, that of illegal border crosses from Latin America.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: On Tuesday, President Trump, asked about the Minnesota fraud prosecutions,
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: expressed his disgust, quote, these people that work, these people
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: are these These aren't people that work. Let's go, come on,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: let's make this place great. These are people that do
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: nothing but complain. Now, again, for people who think that
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: he's generalized, who's the most famous Somali American in this country?
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: I'd say, ilat Omar? Is this that a description of her?
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: Mary's or brothers say she can stay in the country legally,
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: gets in here and does nothing but rip on the
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: United States of America. She cops, knocks down a government salary,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: and supports government assistance for everything, continuing. They come from
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: hell and they complain and do nothing but bitch. By
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: the way, is there anybody but Trump who would have
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: been the guts to say that this is why they
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: precisely hate of it, you know, And again, maybe it's
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: an over generalization. I'll admit I don't know a whole
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: lot of Somalia America. Plkins, it's Minnesota that they managed
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: to land in. But I mean, you just think of
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: all of the scams at so many different levels in
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: the Somalikan I mean, you got to admit there's a
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: lot of Somali bang for the buck, given how few
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: of them there are in the United States. I mean
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: the high Seas, that's the entire world of pirate comes flow.
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: No matter what part of the world is, you almost
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: expect that it's going to be a Somali. The President
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: singled out for particular score in Minneapolis's representative Ilhan Omar.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: She is the poster child for this, isn't she put aside?
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: If you can Trump's failure to distinguish between criminals and
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: law abiding Americans of Somali ancestry, the President isn't wrong
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: to send something deeply amiss in a community of Americans
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: so contemptuous of the country that took them in. And
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: that's it. Instead of thanking us, they can't stand us.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: They think that we're a bunch of dopes and suckers
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: to be fleeced dry. The column continues, Perhaps Trump can
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: turn his attention to those illegal aliens some nations that
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: for all their dysfunction, are not indelibly Christian. Immigrants from
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Latin America work. Indeed, they have a higher labor force
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: participation rate than whites. Let me interject I do agree
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: with that part, as they've been pointing out for years.
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: It's not all of them. But when that line comes out,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: there are some jobs Americans won't do. It's just true.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: And anybody who denies this does not see the number
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: of Americans that have been sitting on their asses forever
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: and ever and ever. You need somebody to peel potatoes
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: in a restaurant, an illegal immigrant is going to do it.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: But a bunch of lazy ass Americans living off of
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: fourteen different welfare programs and smoking their pott and all
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: this stuff, they're not going to do it. The problem
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: with it, of course, is that they entered illegally, which
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: is why I have always argued throw them out and
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: then if they want to try to come bang it
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: back in after a period of times to the front
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: door and legally allow them to do it. But in
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: the process, by throwing it everybody out, you're going to
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: get all the crooks that have come in in the process,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: get them out as well. And they won't be approved
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: to come back into the front door because of the crooks. Now,
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: the point that Swam is making is maybe Prumb's Nights
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: needs to start drawing his attention away from some of
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: the Latin American illegal immigrants to all of these Somalis
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: and many others that are in here that just can't
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: stand America despise and lothus. Look at the number of
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: terror cells that we have run around here and how
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: they've managed to radicalize a bunch of stupid Americans. Look
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: at the number of people that have are radicalized. Where
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: do you think this is coming from? And I'll get
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: back to the piece and finish it off in a moment.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: I think a special word needs to be directed towards
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: some people on the American right that are sucking up
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: to this ideology because of their own hatred of Judaism.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Tucker Carlson falls into that category,
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: but I think the candae OANs is it's very very
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: hard to see an upside in a great concentration. And again,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: maybe this would be different if when the Somalis came here,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: they weren't all plopped into one place. If you put
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: a few here and a few there and a few
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: in the other thing. You wouldn't have this feeding thing
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: where they all got together to essentially scam everyone. Also,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: if the Somalis had not been dropped in Minnesota, let's
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: imagine they were dropped in Oklahoma, very conservative state, maybe
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: there wouldn't have been such a tendency to look the
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: other way like you had with a buffoon like Tim Waltz,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: who knew all about this but didn't want to draw
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: any attention to it because he didn't want to say
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: anything negative towards any Somalies, in part because they're all
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Democrats and they're all voting for finishing off the piece.
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: Responsible people agree the criminals in the country illegally ought
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: to be removed, But those work in construction and agriculture jobs.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: They're saying, in so many words, let's go, come on,
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: let's make this place great, and they don't bitch. That
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: column is in today's Wall Street Journal. Burton sway, all right,
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: attention to another story. Open Ai. That's the company whose
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: prime product is chat GPT. There are lots of indications
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: right now that open ai is losing its lead in
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: artificial intelligence. One of the things that I've noted on
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: almost every tech development is that the company that is
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: first almost never makes it. It's usually the ones that
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: come in second, third, or fourth and see how the
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: first one did it and figured it out, I can
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: do it better than them. The leaders leader of open ai, Altman,
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: came out and called a so called quote red this week,
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: essentially saying we've got to improve immediately, implying that we
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: are at risk of failing. Now. Obviously, the valuation of
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: open ai is in the many, many billions of dollars.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Let me quote here from a peace on substack by
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: somebody named Gary Marcus. Open ai lacks both profits and
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: a moat. What's a moat? You know what a mode
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: is in the business world. You should know this from
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: doing all these stupid financial shows that you do. A moat, well,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: you know what a moat real is in real life.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: It's like like a body water that they would put
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: around a castle. So somebody tried to attack the castle,
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: they got to get through the water to get it.
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: A mode is a barrier to competition. An example of
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: this would be the credit card business. Very hard to
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: compete against Visa and MasterCard and American Express. I mean
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: discover has a tiny little niche. What's instead happened is
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: alternate forms of payment have come up, like PayPal, but
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: they rely on the credit card industry, and most people
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: who use PayPal a tying it to their bank account
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: of the credit card, that would be a mote. Amazon
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: is a mote. It's extremely I mean, how many delivery
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: trucks and warehouses does Amazon have? Imagine if we tried
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: to compete against It's a mode. The point that's being
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: made here is opening eye. Then in a mote, somebody
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: else can come in and develop an AI system that's
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: better than this one, And why wouldn't you just go
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: over and use that? With no mote there? Open AI
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: likes both profits and the mode. The systems that they
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: build are hugely expensive to operate because they require massive
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: amounts of compute for training. Google seems finally to be
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: catching up with their Gemini model. Large language models such
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: as chat GPT may quickly become commodities. See what they're saying,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: commodity in other words, generic. So they spend all this
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: money to create chat GPT, But the next thing you know,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: there's fifty seven different chat GPTs. So chat GPT just
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: becomes worthless. Artificial intelligence itself isn't proprietary. It's using machines
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: to figure out and fastly compute things. Well, chat GPT
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: was the one that got there first, but what's to
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: stop Google from developing their own version, Gemini, which they've
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: done and some people believe it's already past chat GPTs up. Continuing,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: we can expect price wars and profits may continue to
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: be elusive or modest. Mess So now the argument is
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: as nineteen other tech companies come in with their AI things,
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: price slashing is going to occur. So people who think
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: that there's going to be this mass fortune, what is
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: certain is all the infrastructure is going to be needed.
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: All the data set is if we needed, because you
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: need to have all of this in order to do
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: the AI and so on. But to think that only
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: one or two precise companies are going to be in,
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: it's going to be just the opposite. There's going to
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: be massive demand to get in on this, and with
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: numerous providers, the prices are going to crash and the
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: ability for any of them they make a lot of
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: money would be limited. Continuing, the basic thesis then was
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: that although open AI was the darling of Ai. Things
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: could change. Things took longer to unravel than I thought
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: they would, But open AI's unraveling has begun, as The
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal reported, the company has just declared a
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: code read. They are terrified that Google's new model has
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: eclipsed them. By any reasonable measure. Open Ai is clearly
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: squandered the sizeable lead they once had. Their war chest
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: is impressive, but their burn rate is terrifying. My guess
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: is that they have cumulativery raised on the order of
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars since they launched, perhaps more than
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: any other company in history, but they have already spent
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: most of it, and like they don't have much more
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: of a year's runway left now. Another piece superior in
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: a post on X by someone who uses the handle
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: m hole, in which he points out that artificial intelligence
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: has limits, and again going back to the point that
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: we had earlier about experts. Experts can't see this because
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: what they know is artificial intelligence, and they can see
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: beyond artificial intelligence. I'll summarize this point before I even
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: read it. Artificial intelligence only knows what has been input
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: into artificial intelligence, and as artificial intelligence now scans every
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: piece of knowledge in order to grab things. It still
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: has algorithm as to what it accepts and what it doesn't.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: Let's imagine AI, for example, was going to try to
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: figure out the packer bear game on Sunday. It still
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: is making decisions on what's important and what is not. Well,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: what if those decisions that it is making is based
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: on flawed premises. Here's what he writes. Artificial intelligence doesn't
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: know the truth and it never will. It can't. All
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: it can know are patterns stitch together from what it digests,
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: and like any organism, it becomes what it consumes. Your
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: mother ever yelled at you, you are what you eat?
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: She did, Mine didn't. But I know somebody I went
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: on with a one. I met up with a woman
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: whose mother said that all the time, you are what
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: you eat. You are what you eat? Are we eat?
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: I just kept hearing it to get it again. Well,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: that's what AI is. They are what they eat. I
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: know this all sounds too well from a person. I
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: know this all too well from personal experience. A bad
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: diet is bad results. But at the risk of some
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: owning hypocritical, I have to say AI is eating garbage,
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: tons of it. The people building today's AI systems choose
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: what these models are trained on and how much credibility
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: and each source gets. They calibrate the entire information diet,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: and we see the consequences in the outputs. Take Elon Musk.
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: His model GROC is trained primarily on x data. Meanwhile,
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: models like chat, GPT and Google's Gemini gorge themselves on
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: a steady stream of Wikipedia pages and Reddit threads. The
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: information has been laundered, filtered from a questionable source into
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: a polished, authoritative, seeming format. It would be funny if
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: it weren't so dangerous. And no fund this piece. It's
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: from the co founder most people know, Almond. There's a
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: co founder of open ai, and he's kind of saying
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: the same thing. He says, the first battle of open
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: ai has essentially been solved. How do you grab all
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: the information that's out there in the digital world and
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: compile it? That they've done, But he's saying, the one
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: thing that hasn't done is it hasn't figured out all
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: the things that aren't so far in the digital world.
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: In other words, what about all the stuff we don't
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: yet know? So Opening Eye is basically going to be
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: looking at the entire world, which way in the rear
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: view mirror. And this is what the co founder of
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: OPENINGI is saying that the big challenge now is to
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: scale new information rather than keep regurgitating out the old.
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: Open AI co founder Ilia said Skiver believes the tides
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: of the AI industry will have to shift back to
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: the research phase. On an episode of Dwarkish Podcasts published
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday, Suitskimer, who is widely seen as a pioneer
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: in modern artificial intelligence, challenge the conventional wisdom that scaling
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: could be the key road to major and key roadmap
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: to AIS progress. Scaling just means getting all the stuff
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: that's out there and doing it faster and being able
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: to turn out scale scale scale, get everything, get everything,
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: get everything, get everything. And he's pointing out that the
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: getting everything includes a lot of bad and mostly all
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: conventional wisdom. Continuing, tech companies support hundreds of billions of
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: dollars into acquiring GPUs and building data centers to essentially
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: make their AI tools, whether that whether that's LMS or
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: image generation models better. The wisdom goes that the more
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: compute in other words, the more computing power that you have,
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: the more compute you have or the more training data
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: that you have, the smurter your AI tool will be.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: Sutzkimer said, Now, I would say that if that worked,
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: all these public health experts and all these counties around
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: the United States, all they all, any of them did
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: was simply follow what the CDC's recommendation. Heaven, all of
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: them would make us all smoter. In fact, that made
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: us all dumber because none of them were willing to
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: simply they disagree with what the CDC was saying, say no,
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: we're not going to follow this. I think I know better.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: Not a single one of them did this because they
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: all knew deep down that they're stupid people, and they
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have gone into such a crap field as public health.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Nobody wanted to be the one saying screw it, the
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: mass don't mean anything, keep your churches and schools open.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: Dot A. One wanted to do that. They couldn't break
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: from that. And isn't that what opened? What artificial intelligence
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: is It's going to grab onto whatever the consensus is,
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: and rather than think outside the box, it's going to
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: puke out inside the box, and it's going to be
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: making decisions that can't be questioned because the decisions themselves
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: will be made by AI. Now, as they said, this
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: is the founderable PLANAI is saying, this is part of
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: the problem. Sutzgaber said in the interview that for an
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: interview that for around the past half decade, this recipe
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: has produced impactful results. It's also efficient for companies because
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: the method provides a simple and very low risk way
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: of investing resources and pouring money into the research that
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: could lead nowhere. However, Setskeeper, who now runs Safe Superintelligence Incorporated,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: believes that method is running out of runway. Data is finite.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: In other words, all the data that we have in
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: the world, there's a limit. See what happens when all
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: the AI learns every data that exists. It can't get
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: any smarter because it has everything in there, including obviously
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: a whole lot of crap, and organizations already have access
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: to a massive amount of computy. Said, is the belief really, Oh,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: it's so big, but if you had one hundred times more,
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: everything would be so different. It would be different, for sure.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: But is the belief that if you just had one
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: hundred times the scale everything would be transformed. I don't
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: think that's true. No, it goes on and again. What
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: all of these things are doing is they're raising things
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: that challenge that can sensus by thinking outside the box.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: Every single person who's made the world better or came
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: up with a new innovation is somebody who sized up
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: what was there now and said, I think better, I
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: have this new way. In other words, the exact opposite
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: of experts who are simply going on and pontificating and
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: puking back everything that they already took in. I find
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: all this quite fascinating. This might be beyond your whole love?
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: Am I doing this at too high of a level
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: for like the average guy to swallow in? Or I
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: like you able to swallow this in? You believe you,
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: you believe that you can soak this up. I think
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: the people who listen to my show they love this
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: kind of stuff. I just think that the people who
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: like listen to my podcast they're open to this kind
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: of thinking rather than the average idiot and NPR seeing
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: somebody whisper wrote something that was sort of consensus for
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: twenty seven years ago and doesn't apply at all today.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Right way, I gotta tell this story I was. I
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: told this story about going to the Milwaukee premiere on
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: Tuesday night of Song Sung Blue, the movie about lightning
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: at thunder, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And it
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: was an invitation only thing, and everybody showed up at
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: the same time. They said the doors had opened five thirty.
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: The doors opened at five forty five. So the line
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: took like the line went from the door of the
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: Oriental to north happened. And when I got in it
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: and it was fridgide, cooled out and it moved. It
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: took about thirty minutes, which isn't the end of the
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: world to get it. And I said, what I got right?
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: Do you remember me telling the story? You're not? You say,
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: of course, Well then what happened? Yeah, you'll remember, okay,
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: I said, right when I ended. I mean, maybe it
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: happened twenty nine different times. But I only got to
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: the front of the line once. And some guy got out.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: He must have been dropped off at a Douber or something,
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: because he just seemed to like a pure out of
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: nowhere and cut in front of everybody and announced VIP
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: and tried to walk in and I split a minute,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: and then everybody said, wait a minute. And then you
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: had probably told that the door there's everybody's got every
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: the invitation is VIP, and then pointed to the back
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: of the line, you know, somewhere up by Shorewood. I
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: told that story. This is just unbelievable coincident, I said,
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: I didn't. I don't know who the guy was. I'm
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: not going to name him, because I do think it's
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: possible it was an innocent, stupid mistake that he maybe
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: he thought that there were VIPs rather than what No,
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: he didn't throw a tantrum at all, he just you know,
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: it was I mean, I think any kind of judgment
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: realized that, first of all, unless you're like the governor,
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: who the hell are you that you think that you're
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: a VIP to sneak? I mean, I think it's possible
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: it was well intentioned sort of arrogant stupidity. So I'm
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: not going to name him anyway, but I didn't know
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: who he was. Would you believe that in the past day,
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: there's a news story about someone and there's this picture.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to tell you the news, it's just
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: a story that's in the news. There's a picture of
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: the guy. That's this guy, the guy who went to
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: the game with I showed him resent that's him the
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: same day. He probably isn't a listener to my podcast.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: But there's no point in out again because, as I say,
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: it's possible it was just an innocent I mean, it
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: wasn't an innocent mistake, but it could be a mistake
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: that it's not as ill intended as He didn't say,
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: don't you know who I am? He just said, is
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: this the VIP entrance? But I mean the line, there's
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: this whole line. Well, yeah, it wasn't like he fought
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: it and tried to jam as well. He wasn't gonna
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: work because hey, the rest of the crowd freezing out there,
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: like me, we're not going to tolerate this guy getting
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: in there. Plus we all had invitations that said VIP
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: in the whole think all right, this is the Mark
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: Belling podcast. This is the Mark Belling podcast. All right. Now,
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: I know cynical people. You think you think I'm cynical.
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: I am somewhat cynical, but I mean I know people
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: that are way beyond me, to the point that nothing's
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: on the up and up. I know somebody who thinks
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Jiannis is faking his injury. Paul said he's heard that.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's nothing in his character that would indicate
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: that he would do it. Furthermore, if you're going to
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: fake an injury, you fake the injury in practice rather
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: than in plain view. But I mean, I do get
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: the whole thing, and it's certainly true from the perspective
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: of both him and the Bucks. There's no upside for
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: the Bucks in Giannis getting hurt. If Yannis is to
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: be traded, you want to trade him and trade him healthy.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: So I mean, the hall you will get back from
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: him is off the charts. I think only maybe you'd
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: have to be a rookie, say Victor Wimenyam and a
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: couple of others could draw as much as Giannis could draw.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: The Bucks have the highest score and efficiency of any
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: team in the league when he's in the lineup, and
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: the lowest when he's not. I've never seen that the
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: Bucks score more points permitted when Yannis is on the
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: court than any team in the league, and fewer points
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: per minute when he's not of the court than any
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: team in the league. No, they won last night without him.
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: But anyway, whether or not he's going to be traded
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: or not. I get why Doc Rivers is so frustrated
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: the whole thing because there's been rumors about Yanni seving Milwaukee,
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: you know, for six years, and he hasn't left. But
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's speaking the injury. But anyway, that's
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: so I told this guy, I'm gonna go on the
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: air and say, I know a goof with you go
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: do that. I should name it. But then he'd like
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: like that. On a related note, there's just something perfect
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: about this story. Diego pavia. See, you don't know who
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: that is. He's the quarterback of Vanderbilt. You probably don't
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: know that Vanderbilt has been terrible in football as long
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: as there's been football, and they have a very good
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: team this year. They're in the toughest league there is,
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: the SEC, and they've been very good. He's their quarterback.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: His nickname is Pissing. How many people of you know
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: they have the name Pissing? Is their Well, it's because
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: when he was at New Mexico State, he famously went
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: to the University of New Mexico, walked out to the
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: fifty yard line of their field and took a leak
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: on the logo on the field. I mean that's when
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: he was at another school. He transferred to Vanderbilt, but
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: that was in other words, he's a very competitive kind
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: of And anyway, Vanderbilt has no chance of making the
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: college football playoff because well, they had a great season.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: They're in the SEC and they have two losses and
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: they're both in the conference, so they can't advance to
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: their conference title game and they're not going to make
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: it in even though probably you can make the case
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: they're a top twelve team. So what do you think
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: Pabia one is trying to do about this to salvage
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: their season. He's asking Trump to issue an executive order
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: adding teams to the playoffs. The playoffs start in like
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: a week and a half, and he's who is he
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: asking to fix this? Trump? Now, the two things that
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: make the story just perfect is I said forever, you know,
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: they keep expanding the playoffs because they keep saying, there's
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: this contract this team should be in. It doesn't matter
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: how many teams are gonna be in. No matter what
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: it is, they're gonna be teams that say that. Look
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: at the NCAA basketball team, sixty eight teams are in
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: that and you still have bitching about who doesn't get
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: into that. The more teams you have, the more teams
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: who think that they would be screwed. Remember when they
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: had two teams in it. You can do that this
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: year and have it just be cleaner. Whoever wins Ohio State,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: Indiana place, whoever wins Alabama, Georgia that they play for
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: the national chain. You got me. He's here. Secondly, as
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: much as people want to rag on Trump, Pavey knows
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: that the one guy who actually could in an instant
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: fits something and just issue whether or not he should
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: issue an exec And I don't think Trump should be
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: issued an executive order in college sports and all that stuff,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: But this is what it dawns on. This is a
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: guy that actually might do it. A Trump's story. As
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: you know, Trump's tariff authority may be struck down by
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: the United States Supreme Court. I think that that would
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: be a disaster. I think the TIFFs, not only by
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: and large, have worked, the threat of tariffs, have given
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: Trump incredible leverage to make the world a better place
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: and get the United States on better footing in any
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: number of areas. Trump, though, is doubling down on this.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: He is now saying that based on the incredible amount
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: of revenue coming in from the limited tariffs that we have.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: He believes that the tariffs could eventually end the United
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: States income tax. Now, a lot of people don't like
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: the notion of tariffts because they think they're bad for
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: the economy. On the other hand, virtually everyone agrees that
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: taxation is bad for the economy. Imagine if nobody paid
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: any federal income tax, if we kept all of our
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: money other than seeing the money we give to the
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: state and paying property taxes. For the people in this
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: country who pay very little in taxes, they wouldn't care.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: But without regard to your status on that it would
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: be a fortune of money that could be pumped back
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: into the economy. And Trump's point is is that by
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: setting the tariffs high enough, by tariffing, in other words,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: putting the tax only on the importation of products, without
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: regard to whether or not you think the consumer is
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: paying that tax or not, would it not be a
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: better way of taxing than taxing people on their income power. Furthermore,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: it creates a tremendous incentive for companies to build their
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: stuff here in the United States rather than import them.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Trump's numbers add up. It seems
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: to be to come up with the amount of money
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: that we pay in United States' income taxes, he'd have
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: to tear off everything at like ten fifteen trillion percent. Nonetheless,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: the point he makes is interesting now to this story,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: there's a phenomenon one of the things that you don't
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: know because the Internet and YouTube and all of those
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: things weren't around. Are there more police impersonators now than
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: there used to be? I mean, it just seems to
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: twenty years ago you never really, I won't say, you
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: never heard of it. It's very rare, right, the stolen
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: valid with military Yeah, I mean maybe forty years ago
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: every loudmouth in a bar was shooting his mouth offense.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: But now that they're all being captured on video and
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: people are exposed, it's just hard to say. But boy,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: I think of there's so many things that people that
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: weirdos get into that I just can't imagine. You Paul's
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: got I think I can say this, I can say what, Yeah,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: Paul's son laws a cop. I don't. I haven't named
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: the jurisdiction. I don't think Paul minds that. I just
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: want to do it. Here's a cop. Okay, I just okay,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: that's kind of that's a good thing that he's serving
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: and everything. I remember when I wanted to be a cop.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: I was five. You know, you played cops and robbers.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: What is it about a grown adult taking all the
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: risks of trouble that you can get into, running around
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: and actually pretending hard to be And when I say pretending,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: pulling people over, putting lights in their cards, wearing fake badges,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: do you get that? It just I mean there's a
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: lot of things I don't get that weirdos that we're
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, there are something that I would never do,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: but I at least get what they see and do it,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: you know, like any number of things that we shouldn't do.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, I say, why people use drugs. They get
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: the buzz and the high off, but I don't do
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: it because of the long term after effects on the downsay,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: but you can at least see, Okay, they get the bus.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: I just don't get white to be good about that
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: given the Okay, we got another one. The story I
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: find in the walkaster frameman elcorn Man charged with impersonating
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: police officer. And listen to this. The guy's name is
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: Davin Stam nineteen. He's a mill Cord nineteen. Well, I
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: mean they're of all ages. By the way. One of
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: the things that you see about these these people tend
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: to not be First of all, you rarely get prison
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: time for it. They give them little offenses. Think a
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: lot of these people that you see in the internet
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: have been doing it forever. There's some guy named Jeremy.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: He's a legend on YouTube. He's been caught like thirty
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: five times. He just keeps doing it, and he'll like
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: set up a business. It's quasi related to this, like
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: some sort of security and that. There are certain things
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: you can't do. And it has to do with like
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: the colors you can put of the lights that are
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: on your vehicle. Is it I actually don't even know
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: right now, is it blue and white? I think that
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: blue and white can only be law enforcement? I think,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: do you know? Yeah, I don't know the right. And
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: then there are other things like there's no law against
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: carrying a badge, but you can't make it too much
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: like a law enforcement you know, for instance, they give
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: out honorary badges and that kinds of things. Any number
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: of things, and you can you know, you can have
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: an ex police car as a vehicle, but you can't
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: steal it. And you can even put terms on it
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: like security policing or something like that. There's certain lines
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: that and these people always tend to get right up
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: to the light anyway. Getting the story. Guy's nineteen charge
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: wensan Wakashakany Circuit Court was impersonating a peace officer, a
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: misdemeanor punishable buy up to nine months in jail, which
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: they never get, or ten thousand dollars in fine. He
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: is due for an initial court appeance January twenty second.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: Listen to this. A criminal complaint against him, said sure.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: Iff's deputies were summoned to August fifth to an area
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: of Interstate forty three and Moreland Road. That's a very
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: busy intersection that's in south central Walkershaw County and taking
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: an I forty three from Milwaukee toward you know, Beloit
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: and so on. Moreland Roads a huge interchange there, probably
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: the biggest one on all of the southwestern portion of
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: I forty three. For a report of a vehicle flashing
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: blue lights. Now this is dangerous because I think I'm
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: not sure this. I think it's blue and white that
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: you can't use it's white in combination of blue flashing
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: blue lights to get others to move over. A deputy
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: reported seeing a Ford Explorer matching the vehicle's description flashing
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: blue lights while behind another car near Guthrie rode An
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: I forty three. The complaint said, so he's doing this
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: On the interstate. A deputy found a light bar that
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: flashed white and blue lights when activated in the upper
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: portion of the windshield of Stam's vehicle. The complaint said.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: When the deputy asked him why he had activated the lights,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: I love this. You get pulled over, you have this?
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: Why did you do this? I mean, there is no
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: every lie that you tell is gonna sound stupid, right,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: I mean you don't. I mean, I suppose they'd be
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: really stupid and just come out and say I was
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: trying to convince people I was a cop. But that
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: would be the only answer that would be sensible, because
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: any lie that you make up is just really stupid sounding.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: But they have to say something. They could I suppose
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: just say I'm pleading the fifth You're right, I'm not
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: saying a damn thing, because you know, but of course
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: they have to say something. And remember the guy's pretending
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: to be a cop, so he's obviously not somebody who's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: gonna like want to like screw with the cops, because
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: this is like his these are cops. This is what
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: he wants to He's thinking that, like this is a
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: fellow cop kind of right, Yeah, there is zero so
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: he watched the corp at Anyway, when the deputy asked
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: him why he had activated the lights, the defendant explained
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: that there was a Tesla in front of him driving slowly,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: and he turned the lights on to make the Tesla mobile,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: as opposed to what most people would do, which is
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: pass him. Now occasionally, at I forty three, in the
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: areas where it's only two lanes in each direction, you
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: can kind of be stuck behind somebody and so on,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: I find that what you can do, if you're really
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: frustrated is you flash him a couple of times, right, yeah,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: And the reason that you do that you don't have
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: blue and white lights on the top of your car
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: or anything like that to pull over. Well, the guy's
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: going too slow, so that's why I did this. Continuing,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: a fake rifle was found on a passenger seat. No
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: often these cop cars will have a rifle. So he's
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: got a rifle, but it's a fake rifle. But would
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: you have a fake rifle for so only so you
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: look like a cop? And Stam denied having any other
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: items in his car consistent with law enforcement, like handcuffs,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: a badge of the like. Stam admitted he was not
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: a police officer and that what he did was stupid.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: See they all say it was stupid. Well, it occurs
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: to you that's stupid when the cop is standing here.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: But forty five seconds ago, when they were run of
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: the lights and you were doing it, you didn't think
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: it was stupid. Yeah, you got It's a lot of
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: work to this. But I'm guessing this is like he's
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: into this. See I'm just first of all, I just
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: can't get myself to be this weird. Plus I'm just
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: too lazy. Well that's the other thing if you want
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: to be And I see some of these that are
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: like forty five obvious. Maybe they tried to be a
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: cop and got washed out, or they were chicken, or
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: they were too slow, there's a criminal conviction, or they
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: smoke pot and they and this guy's nineteen, he actually
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: could still be one and well, it can't be too
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: hard to become a cops. There's somebody in your family
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: that's a I know it's not that easy, but it's
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: not impossible. It can't be impossible. There's asillien enough I'm
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: running around out there. Stam admitted that he was not
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: a police officer and he was stupid. The complaints said.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: The Nippity also learned Stam had a suspended driver's life.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, okay, I could see he's not gonna make copy,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: can't and even keep his driver's license in order. In
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: an interview with deputies, Stam said he recently bought the
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: lights for his car, thinking they were cool to have.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: He denied any intent to impersonate a police officer, but
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: he said he turned the lights on to get the
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: Tesla to move over and it did not. Stam stated
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: that he activated the blue and white lights twice previously
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: to get other vehicles to yield or move over, and see,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: that's all he can do. He wasn't going to actually
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: apparently pull anybody over and put him in cuffs and
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: so on. His whole thing was to turn the lights
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: on and feel like a big shot as the cars
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: are then pull over and then he'd drive on and
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: do the next thing. I just o there are people
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: out of the price. It's just like the same thing
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: with kittie porn. I can't imagine being into that. I
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: just can't. You know, some hot looking twenty seven year
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: old woman's pants that are ound in there, I get
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: getting turned on by that. I just can't get the
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: whole they're promising. Well, I could see what you'd be.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: I just can't imagine this is but you're when you
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: watch horse races, I do well, I can't imagine. I know.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: I just think, Mike is They're just a level of
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: It's just a weird thing, isn't it. Well, not only
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: is it. I'm just talking about why you'd want to
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: do it, all right, And know this, of the people
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: that are into perverts toward kids, that's it. It seemed that
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: a disproportionate number of them are soccer coaches. I mean, now,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: part of the reason that you seem to get it,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: there's azillion teachers that are getting caught up in this
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: is well, first of all, there's azillion teachers, and second
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: lay are they going into teaching because they're attracted to
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: young people or because all they're around is young people.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: That's what they get attracted to. I don't know the answer.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: Another soccer coach. Now this is a weird one. This
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: one's being reported in Fox six. The guy is a
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: local youth soccer coach. He is accused of trying to
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: fly overseas they have sex with children. That's a lot
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: of trouble. I'm not sure I want to fly overseas
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: to do anything. I mean, what is it that you
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: want enough to do that you're gonna set on a
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: plane for eight or night. There's got to be like
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: some sort of tourism or something. I mean, what, yeah,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: like ski in the Alps or something. Even then, even
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: if I as a skier, I just think I'd rather
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: go to Aspen than you know, you've been on cruises.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: You see how long the line of customs in some
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: of these foreign countries is. Do you anyway? Here's the
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: guy's name, Justin Kaegerbauer. He's forty six, charged in federal
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: court with multiple sex crimes. On Tuesday, judge out of
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: the forty six year old detained pending trial. Fox six
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: reached out to this attorney and did not get a response.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: Here's the backstory. A flight bound and I'm not going
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: to make light of this year because this is this
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: guy's in our community. A flight bound for New York's
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: John F. Kennedy International Airport took off from Chice, oh
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: Here on Thanksgiving morning. Federal agents planned to arrest Haegerbauer
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: at the airport, but he never made it. Two hours later,
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: court records show the forty six year old man is
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: it was in US marshal's custody at the federal courthouse.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: He appeared before a magistrate judged that after doing for months.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: Prosecutors said, and again, the thing with this is, you
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: know what, with the Internet and everything, there is no
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: place less private in our world than the Internet. It's
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: the easiest thing for them to snoop on, you know,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: to put a listening device into your home. They got
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: to bust into your host thing osten. When I watched
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: The Sopranos, they always seem to like try to put
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: those things in lamps. Well, I guess it's because who
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: looks under a lamp? Yeah, I was right, I mean, see,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: I mean that's Carl. First of all, they gotta get
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: in and they gotta play the Internet. It's all it's
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: very easy to tap in and just go onto your
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: computer and see what's going on, which is good because
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: I mean they're good and bad things about it. One
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: of the good things is we're catching these cretness perverts.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: So anyway, for months, the prosecutors said he had been
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: talking with who he thought was a woman in the
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: United United Kingdom with a nine year old niece. It
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: was actually an undercover UK cop. So this is a
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: Flicks guy's probably thinking I'm gonna do this overseas because
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: I know there's all these cops in walker Shaw and
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: so on posing as posing to these people. But it
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: certainly wouldn't be in Britain, and it's a British cop.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: Court filing said he wrote he would be interested in
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: girls six plus. Oh my god, I mean, aside from
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: my moral disapproval, I'm actually serious with what's what. I
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: just don't get what they praction is. I I have
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: never in my life thought of something, and I'm you know,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: we talked about the whole seventeen thing in the Woody
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: Ellen movie, in which nobody back. It was only you know,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: forty five nineteen seventy nine when Manhattan came out. You know,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: he's having a relationship with the seventeen year old in
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: the movie, and it was not even controversial at the time. Now,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: in part the age of consent in New York State
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: at that time was sixteen. A lot of states have
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: kind of changed those rules, but it since become considered,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: if not criminal, seventeen is a close call in the
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: laws in a lot of states. Not criminal. It's just
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: generally disapproved of the guy in the forties, and but
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: that is an attitude that's rather new. But six six
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: has never been acceptable unless, as they say, you're a
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: Pakistani immigrant. Six plus is quote as well as I
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: have no experience, but I would love to and it
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: would be a dream come true. My dream, contru would
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: be like winning the Kentucky Derby or something. This guy
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: is to go to England and have sex with a
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: six year old. The undercover officer and Kiggerbower chatted more
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: than one hundred times in March to November, reiterating plans
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: to visit the woman and the nine year old girl.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: They some can say, it's just talk, it's just talk,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: it's just the guy booked a flight to London. Blue
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: told federal investigators kager Bar bought a one way ticket.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: Was he gonna stay there and live happily ever after?
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, I get I actually buy one way tickets.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: It used to be you get a big discount on
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: the round trip. It's not really true anymore. So you know,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: you can decide when to come back to he throw
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: Airport in London via JFK for November twenty seventh, which
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: is wasn't that Thanksgiving Day? What a sick day to
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: go do it? It's gonna get out a plane to
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: go overseas. They have sex with a child that he's
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: leaving on Thanksgiving Day. From court filings and archived websites,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 2: Fox six News that Kaegerbauer was an architect for Heartland
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: Homebuilders and served as the director of tryouts and accounts
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: receivable for the Franklin based Croatian Eagles soccer club. Prosecutors
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: have not mentioned any allegations involving the club or children,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: so again, there's no medication that he's actually done anything
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: like this. But again, how do you know? So anybody
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: who's if your kids have had contact, I would at
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: least ask, you know, do you remember this guy did
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: anything odd happen? And so on? Maybe it did, maybe
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: it didn't. Time for our weekly football preview and some
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: point spread picks next on the Mark Belling Podcast. This
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: is the Mark Belling Podcast. Unfortunately, Mike Burletta of American
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: Sports Analysts and Madison cannot be with us this week.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: There's he's got a conflict in his personal life and
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: so on, and he was not able to join us
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: at the time for taping. So we're going to do
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: this a little bit shorter than normal our football preview.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: I will simply share some thoughts and a couple of
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: big things going on in football this weekend. The biggest
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: college football game nobody's even when you have number one
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 2: playing number two, it's kind of a magical thing. Less
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: so this year, because the football playoffs are in place,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: and both teams will advance to the playoffs anyway, and
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: they're both probably going to get first round buys. The
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: team that loses will still probably be ranked in the
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: top four. But Ohio's plays Indiana for the Big Ten championship.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: And one of the things that I dislike about the
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: college playoffs, as I say, is this game doesn't have
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: the consequence if we had a shorter playoff, like a
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: four team thing, and it meant that the loser would
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: be out. It would give this game incredible meaning. Still
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: it's a fascinating game because both teams are unbeaten, they're
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: in the same league, and most of their wins were
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: by whiteouts. Because the Big Ten now has eighteen teams,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: a lot of these teams don't even have opponents in
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: common where you can compare that both have tremendous offense
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: is ranked both ranked in the top five in the country,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: and Ohio State in particular has a great defense. Indiana's
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: offense seems to be a little better. What makes the
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: game very, very hard to predict is since they both
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: essentially kill the teams in the Big Ten and have
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: similar strengths of schedule, who really is better. When we
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: talk talked about the Ohio State Michigan game last week,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: Mike pointed out that Ohio State through the luck of
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: the draw. Remember when you have an eighteen team league,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: you're only going to play half the other teams in
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: the league, and that they do it by random. Wisconsin
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: just got unlucky this year, and that they had no
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: soft Big Ten games. Every great team in the league
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: it seemed as though, was on their schedule. Ohio State
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: has a softer schedule, so Mike wasn't sure that they
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: would how badly they would beat Michigan. As it turns out, Michigan,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: which has had Ohio State's number, Ohio State which is
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: so focused on the game, and Ohio State slaughtered them.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: Indiana finished the season playing a very poor team. It's
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: cross state rival puit Perdue, and they beat him fifty
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: six to three. So that's an interesting game. The prestige
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: that comes out of it is simply being the only
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: undefeated team left and the title of Big Ten Championship. Unfortunately,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: two weeks later, when they both start their action in
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: the college football playoffs, people will have forgotten the game.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: On the college football playoffs. I mentioned in an earlier
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: segment Diego Pavia, the quarterback for Vanderbilt, asking President Trump
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: to intervene because the playoffs are all screwed up, and
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: they are all screwed up. Doesn't matter how many teams.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: Pick a number of teams that you put in the playoffs,
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: doesn't matter what it is. Just grab a number. Just
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: grab any number, could be big or small. Seven. Well,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: I wish you would have picked the number I higher. Well,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: twelve is the current number. Okay, seven, seven is a
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: really whatever. The teams that are going to eight, nine, ten,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: eleven to twelve at thirteen are all going to argue
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: whether or not they should be in that seven. If
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: you pick thirty two, there's going to be arguments about it.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: My problem with picking so many is that it diminishes
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: the regular season. I think it should be really hard
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: to get into these things. I think that the NFL
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: expanding their playoffs isn't a good thing. All these sports
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: that make it so easy to get in the regular
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: season is irrelevant. The NBA now with the ten teams
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs. Some of them are on the play
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: in tournament. The only point of the regular season is
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: to not be so terrible that you don't make the playoffs.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: So teams play for five months when the real season
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: only lasts four a couple of months when you go
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: into the postseason. Anyway, Pavia is right because we have
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: all of these conferences, and in order to craft the twelve,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: they do require that of the five of the four
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: major conferences they get a guaranteed automatic bid. The winner
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: of each of the four big conferences gets in of
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: the five lesser top conferences. They call them the Group
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: of five. There's a guarantee that one team, at least
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: one team from the group of kive will get in,
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: and there's a debate about who that should be. James
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: Madison has had an outstanding season, but they're in one
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: of the group of five leagues, and some people think
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: that the team that wins the American Association Conference will
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: get that bid rather than James Madison. With regard to
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: Pavi's team, Vanderbilt, you have a league this year, the CC,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: that has only one good team, and there are several
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: teams in the SEC that are better than everybody in
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: the ACC. But because the ACC gets an automatic bid
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: and you can only take so many teams from the SEC,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 2: Vanderbilt is on the outside looking in. And you could say, well,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: at least then the ACC, if it has the one
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: good team, they'll get in. Except guess what, the only
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: team that's really good in the ACC didn't make the
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: ACC title game. Why when you have so many of
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: these conferences with a zillion teams in them, you're gonna
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: get a lot of ties. You might get say seven
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: teams that are well, that's too high. Four teams that
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: are seven to one, so you go to the tiebreaker.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: Every team lost the game, but Miami, which is the
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: one good team in the ACC, they lost to. It
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: might have been SMU. They lost to another team that
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: was in the tiebreaker with them, and they end up
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: not being eligible for the title game. Most people believe
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: that the two best teams in the ACC are Miami
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: and n You neither of them are on the title game.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: Virginia and Duke are, and there isn't a single person
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: of things that Virginia or Duke has any chance to
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 2: do anything in the college football playoffs. Turning our attention
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: to the NFL, there's only one game that we need
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: to focus on, and that's the Packers and the Bears.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: It is very interesting how heavily favored the Packers are.
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: The Bears have the number one seed in the NFC,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: they're in first place in the Central Division, and they're
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: on quite the winning streak. But they're not only underdogs
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: of the Packers, they're underdogs by six and a half points,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: which has surprised a lot of people and raised eyebrows.
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: On the other hand, prior to their win last week
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: against Philadelphia, a team that might in reality be awful.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: The Bears have won so many close games in which
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: they've been outgained, they still have been outscored on the year.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: The people that go by simply the numbers will look
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: upon the Bears as an average team that has a
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: lot of wins. The people that look at wins and
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: losses say, who who cares what the numbers are? That
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: team wins a lot. You've got a curious situation with
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: the Packers and the Bears, and that they play twice
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: in three weeks. If either team wins both of those games,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: it's almost mathematically impossible that they don't win the division
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: if they split. The Packers in that situation, with getting
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: a tie earlier in the year, will either come back
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: to help or haunt them, depending on where the Bears are.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: I would be of the opinion that Green Bay will
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: win the game. That's notwithstanding whether or not I think
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: that they would cover a six and a half point spread.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: But I think that the Packers are a more complete
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: team than the Bears, and I think that the Packers
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: are playing much better now than they were earlier in
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: the year. Still a very interesting game, and it's nice
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: to once again have the Packers and the Bears playing
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: in games that have a very high stakes. All right,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: that's enough of our preview. Let's get around to point
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: spread picks for this week, and the recapping has just
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: gotten for me to be. I started the season so
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: well and I have just the only bright side I'll
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: point out is I mentioned a lot that I'm in
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: a contest with some friends and we all picked three
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: games against the points spread. I did go two and
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: one last week, and I went on went three to
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: the preceding two weeks after starting the season on our
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: show here six and two. I've been wrong about everything,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: but last week I just happened of the three games
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: that I like to pick the wrong one. I thought
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: Kansas State would beat Colorado by seventeen or more. They
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: beat him decisively, but only by the ten, so I lost.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: Mike also lost. He's having an awful season with his
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 2: picks on the air. He took Tulsa over UAB. That
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: didn't work at all. Paul took the Bears seven point
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: hunderdogs against the Eagles, and that was by far the
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: best pick of the week, as the Bears won the
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: game straight up. You got it? Was it nine points
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: or eleven. I thought it was eleven, but maybe you're right. Yeah,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: the bear, wasn't it twenty six fifteen? You're probably right, Okay,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: I thought it was by eleven. Anyway, So those were
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: the selections, and we're all underwater, and somehow I'm still ahead,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: but Paul's catching me. And anyway, for those of you
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: interested in what ASA has going on this week Mike's company,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: go to ASA wins dot com. I don't want to
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: oversell something, but I believe they won their college football
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: game of the year this past week. And if I'm wrong,
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: it's just a mistake. And my memory is a little fuzzy,
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: but my recollection was that they did all right. Time
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: for picks this weekend, there are nine college games. All
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: of the conferences have their championship game. Every conference now
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: has a championship playoff game, and following that the bowl
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: games on the College Football Playoffs starts. So those nine
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: games go on. Plus in the NFL, the buys are
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: still going on. Four teams at buys. But that's the schedule,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: all right, get my sheet here, Paul, who started the
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: season so terribly and has gotten hot. You're happy, You're
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: only you're only half game up because I have fallen up.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: I mean if I just like was like Meadi yocre
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: over the last few weeks, I'd be were running away
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: from this because I started so strong. But I mean
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: I started six and two. I'm now six seven and one.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: That means I'm on a run of er five and one.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: I managed to tie one of my picks in lose
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 2: the other five. All right, which game you want the
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: over under end? The spread on the Packer Bear game? Yeah,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: six and a half and the total is forty four
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: and a half. And of course the game's in Green Bay.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: Paul thinks it's easy. Huh, Paul's thinking the Bears. Paul
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: said the Packers could win by three or lose. Now
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: politic the Bears last week. He's high on the Bears.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: Give me, give me your other reasons here. The Bear's
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: average over one hundred fifty yards rushing. The Packers only
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: injury of no now at the moment is they lost
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: their best run stopper in Devonte Wyatt. Clearly that's an issue.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: And Wyatt is an example of one of those guys
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: that you can't judge a first round draft choice the
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: first two years because he was useless his first two seasons,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: but he's developed into well the best interior alignment, not
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: the best line of the best in caurior alignment on
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: the team. And he's out for the year and the
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: Bears are running the ball very well. You're right, he
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: thinks still control the clock by running the ball. Paul
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: points out that William's passing stats are not that good.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: I think that their receivers are only okay. They're putting
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 2: up a lot of points. They have the downside of
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: not having the greatest receivers in the roum. They lead
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 2: the end well. There are turnovers are unbelievable. They are
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 2: off the charts in producing turnovers and not committing any.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: And there is no better factor to win a game
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: than to Going back to the Packer game last week,
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: I can tend the Packers are really plus five and
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 2: turnovers because I think fourth down conversion or stop is
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: the same as a turnover. Imagine if you fumbled the
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: ball and third down and the other team recovered well,
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: fourth down and the other team getting ball at that point,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: it is the effect of a turnover. I think all
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: of those points are valid. I do think this. I
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: think that the Packers defense is ten points better than
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: the Bears defense. I'm still not so old on the
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: Packer corners, but one of them has gotten better than
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: he was earlier in the season, and the other one
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: is okay. I think the Packer defense is much better.
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: I think the Green Bay I think they've looked very
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: good the last couple of weeks. I think the Packers
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: will win. The thing about six and a half on
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: a point spread is it's just like three. There are
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: so many games in the NFL that end by exactly seven,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: and they can be really close. You can have a
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 2: game seventeen to seventeen with a minute left and a
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: team it's a forty five your touchdown pass and seven
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: point win looks like a blow away when it was
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: actually a very narrow game. So I just don't really know.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: Mike has sent us a pick, and he's been nice
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: enough to give a long narrative on the pick, which
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: I'm guessing his clients also get, so I'll just share it.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: Mike is looking at the game. I got to check
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 2: our points spread on it here. Paul reminded me to
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 2: do that and I didn't. Yeah, that's it. Seattle and Atlanta.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: I think Atlanta is maybe the most disappointing team in
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: the NFC this year, don't you. They were thought to
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: be very good and they're bad. And I would say
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: maybe the most surprising team in the NFC is Seattle, right,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: just as I mean the most surprising team in the
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: NFL is simple New England. New England is the best
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: record in football and who saw that coming. That's just
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: a function. And talk about this in the NBA all
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 2: the time. When you're bad for several years, you get
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: all those early draft picks and if you pick right, okay,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: they play. In the case of New England, you think
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: the MVP is going to be I think it's Drake
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: may right. I mean it's early to say, but you
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: know he was the quarterback at North Carolina when they
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: picked him in the first round of the draft, and
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: he's having a spectacular season. Anyway, Mike's looking at the
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: game between Seattle and Atlanta, and he's looking at the total,
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: which is forty four and a half. And Mike's pick
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 2: is on the over, and I'll just read what he
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: wrote for us. Seattle has been held under twenty six
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: points only once in their last six games, and that
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: was against the Rams who have a good defense. Seattle
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: is averaging twenty nine points per game on the season,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: which is fourth in the NFL. Last week, they scored
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: twenty six versus Minnesota, but they held the Vikings scoreless,
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: so there was no need to score more than that.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: The Seattle offense wasn't pushed to score at all last week.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: We think they'll be pushed to score this week versus Atlanta.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: Teams that come off a shutoff win shut out win
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: tend to go over the following week, as we usually
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: get a lower total than we should in that case.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: So what Mike's pointing out is because they're coming off
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: a shutout last week, the total gets lowered by the
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: odds makers a little bit, and it becomes artificially the
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: point he's making. In fact, he has all these stats.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: These are interesting. NFL road teams who pitched a home
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 2: shutout the previous week are thirteen and one to the
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: over since twenty seventeen. Wow, Teams that are coming off
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: a shutout win at home the following week, the game
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: went over thirteen or fourteen times. That means that it
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: won't go under this week. But that's quite the trend.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: Let's see what else does he have for us? Atlanta
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: average is twenty three points per game at home this season,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 2: and they put up at least twenty three points in
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: five straight games. They started the season going under the
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: total and six of the first seven, but the Felcons
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: have since gone over in four of their last five.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins is getting comfortable and has been solid the
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: last two weeks in his starting role with four hundred
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: and thirty three yards passing and completing over sixty six
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 2: percent of his passes he goes on. But the point
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: is is that Mike is suggests saying the over in
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: Seattle and Atlanta? Whaty one and a half and I'm
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: gonna go to You looked at all the games, right,
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: what's the other big game in the NFL this weekend?
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: And by the way, not the game fans? Do you
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: realize that the game on Thanksgivings the highest regular season ever,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: the game between the Chiefs and the Cowboys. Now, part
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: of that is the time. The mid afternoon Thanksgiving game
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: is always huge ratings because you know the rating count
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: if the TV is on and people are watching, and
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: it's always right before, right after, even during since it's
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: three and a half hours of Thanksgiving dinner. Nobody's out
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: on the roads of those days and so on. In fact,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: the Packer game early at a huge rating as well.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: But people still think of the Chiefs and Cowboys as
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: marquee teams. They're two five hundred teams, is all they are,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: Paul said, the Cowboys and the Lions. Well, you've got
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: a third place team going against the second, the Cowboys
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: and second. Yeah, they have to be because the Giants
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: and Commanders think and they and Philadelphia I think, still
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: leads as bad as they are. Yeah, the Eagles are, Well,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: that's a bad division this year, the East. I mean,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: it's just a marquee I see you miss this. I'm
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: going between a game in which two first placed teams
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 2: are playing each other, the tied for first in their
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: own division. But they're not marquee teams because perception. It's
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: just like the Patriots. Nobody thinks of them as a
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: marquee team. They are the best record in the league.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: The Jaguars play the Colts. They're tied for first in
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: the NFC South. They're both eight and four. I mean,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: who which are they are tied? The Ravens and Steelers
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: are both. That's another they're tied for first. Huh boy,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: another division that's just a quagmire of mediocrity. Then you
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: have the end, I mean the NFC North, the only
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: poor team Clinton, the Minnesota In the NFC West, Arizona's
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: not even that bad, into the only poor team. You've
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: got several divisions really strong and others that are terrible. Anyway,
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: We're going to the NFC South game. Indianapolis is playing Jacksonville.
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 2: As I say, it's a dead heat for the lead.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 3: What did you say AFC, AFC South If I said
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 3: NFC that was clearly a mistake, which Paul quickly jumps
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: on to correct me, and he'll probably correct my pick
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 3: here since I've been wrong for about a month.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: I've been wrong, literally for a month and a half.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: The game is in Jacksonville, but the Colts on the
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: road are favored by one and a half. You probably
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: didn't even think about the game, did you. Now, I
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: admit I'm just not a cold streak. And there's fewer
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: games to pick from this week in college and so on,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: and what Paul's guessing, I'm taking the Colts. All year,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: people have been pointing out that the Jaguar statistically aren't
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: that good. They were winning a lot of close games.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: I'm taking Jacksonville. This is reversed over the last several weeks.
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: The Colts have crashed to earth and Jacksonville is as
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: hot as any team in the NFL. I think in
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: this case, perception has not yet caught up to reality. Well.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: I don't think home field and manages manage just for
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: much of anything in the NFL. The reality is Jacksonville
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: is at least at home. But let me read Jacksonville's
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: most recent games. They had their bye in late October.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: Since then, they went to Las Vegas and they beat
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: the Raiders. They then played a Houston team which is
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: really improved and lost to them by ten, followed by
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: they beat the Chargers by twenty nine, and then the
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 2: last two weeks were on the road, admittedly poor competition,
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: but on the road they beat the Cardinals twenty seven
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: to twenty four, and they beat Tennessee, the worst team
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: in the league, by twenty two. So you have a
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville team that's gotten very, very hot Offensively, they're putting
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 2: up very good numbers right now with Lawnsick quarterback, and
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 2: they're taking on an Indie team that is really cooled off.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: Indianapolis last week lost to Houston, admittedly a close game.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 2: The week before that they lost to the Chiefs. Now
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: you can say, well, again, that's the Chiefs, true, but
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs are a five hundred team, So I think
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 2: you have a team that has improved and is the
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: better team right now getting a tiny amount of points
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: one and a half. The only other game I thought
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: of is we're talking earlier about the Ohio State Indiana game.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: Very hard to figure because they're both unbeaten. Ohio State's
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: favored by four, and I thought of taking Indiana just
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: because this seems to me the teams, based in everything
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 2: we've seen, are even. It's just a hard game to
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 2: read because they don't have many common opponents and they're
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 2: both slaughtering everybody. So flip the coin and I would
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: have leaned Indiana. But instead of doing that, I'm going
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: to take the one game I had any kind of
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: an opinion on. I think Jacksonville's going to win the
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: game straight up in a very close game, but I'm
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: getting the margin. I'm getting a point and a half
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: of points isn't much, but I'll take it. All right,
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: recapping all of our picks here, Paul is taking the
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: Bears to cover the six and a half points. I
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: hope you're wrong. Wouldn't it be great if the Packers
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: won by thirty seven? Oh? Yeah, I know. I'd be
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 2: happy about that too. The only downside of that is
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 2: there is some history that if you kill a team,
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 2: you have to play them back again. That whole revenge
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 2: thing comes in. I don't know if that matters anyway.
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: By the way, the Packer game is a late afternoon
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: game on Sunday, Well, they've got a marquee game. It's
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 2: actually not as important a game because it's non conference,
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: although the Packers tiebreakers don't. Yeah, that will as well.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 2: But the Packers played Denver, one of the best teams
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: in the AFC, next week, and that's a look ahead
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: game because the following week they've got the Bears again,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: and that's the soldier field, all right. Paul says the
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: Bear is to either beat the Packers and lose by
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: six or less. Mike says, the Falcons and Seahawks score
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: more than forty four points forty four and a half points,
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: and I'm taking the Jaguars to either beat the colts
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 2: or lose by one or tied. Those are a picks.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: That's the podcast for this week, back then another one
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: on Monday.
• 1:38:46
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• 1:38:50
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