Latest / The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson / Six Weeks until Election Day-What's Gonna Happen?

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Six Weeks until Election Day-What's Gonna Happen? · The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: It is Verdict with Senator Ted Kruz ben Ferguson with you,
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: and I can't believe it. We are six weeks out
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: until election day, so it's a good time to take
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: a pause look at this election. What are going to
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: be the big issues and where we are right now, Senator,
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: I can't believe it.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Six weeks is not that long.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: As of tomorrow, six weeks from tomorrow will be election
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: day and it'll all be over, God willing, unless it
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: ends up and the Democrats have of their way, it
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: becomes election month. But we will finally be there. November
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: fifth is six weeks and one day away. And what
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: we're going to do on this podcast is layout number one,
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: the presidential what is it going to come down to?
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: And number two, we're going to make a run across
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: the Senate map and the potential pickup states for Republicans
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: and give you a state of the race right now
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: six weeks out. We're going to do all of that,
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: give you an overview of this final six week stretch
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: what to expect heading into election day.
• 1:03
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• 2:40
  Speaker 2: the core number one issue center that you think is
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: going to be it on election Day. I still think
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: it's overwhelming the economy. I think Kama Harris that is
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: still her going to be her weakness and going for
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: price controls I think is still going to be a
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: disaster for her to try to sell that to the
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: American people.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: So I think there are three issues that are front
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: and center. Number one the economy, and really inflation is
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: the most important piece of the economy. Number two is
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: illegal immigration and the chaos at our southern border.
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: And number three is crime.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: And if you look state by state, those three issues
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: are consistently polling at the top. The economy and illegal
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: immigration go back and forth. For one and two state
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: by state, they both tend in state polls to have
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: about thirty percent of the voters say that the number
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: one issue, and then everything else drops to single digits
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: after those two. So it's really in crime and illegal
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: immigration are interwoven, so those are similar issues. And listen,
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: as I look at this race, everyone has been whip
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: sawed by the polls going up and down, and Trump
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: is Upcommala is up, Trump's Upcamala is up.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: It's dizzy.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: It's like watching a tennis match, which I'm sure you like, Ben,
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: but it does get a little crazy going back and forth.
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: At the end of the day. Sitting here six weeks out,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: I am still optimistic. I think it's going to be
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: a good election night. I think Republicans are going to
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: win the White House. I think we're gonna win the Senate,
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: and I think we're going to win the House and
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: grow our majority of the House. And the reason is
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: that on those three issues, the top issues, all three
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: of them favor Republicans at the end of the day.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: Kamala Harris's entire campaign strategy is built on the approach
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: of hide, dodge, evade, Pretend you're not in office, Pretend
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: you have no responsibility for the record right now. That
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: can last a while, and with the media helping her,
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: it has lasted a considerable while. But at the end
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: of the day, I think it's just untenable and so
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: my hope and this has been my message. I saw Trump,
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: I was with him Thursday night. We had a big
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: event in DC where he was standing up against anti Semitism.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: Was a really good, really good, really strong event. And
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: you know, my message to him then and every time
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: I see him is, Folks, on the issues, the fundamental
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: contrast your record versus her record, Trump's record as president
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: in virtually every respect. On the fundamental question, are you
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: better off now than you were four years ago? The
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: answer for virtually everyone is no. And my hope is
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: on the presidential that that gets pounded in a million
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: times between now and election day.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: There also seems to be another problem that Kama Harris
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: is really facing, and it seems to be enthusiasm. She
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't have the numbers that you usually traditionally need among
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: minority voters, either Hispanics or African Americans. And also there's
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: real concerns now of younger voters thirty five and understaying
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: home is that a recipe for disaster and how much
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: should we read into that six weeks out.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: Well, A, there's a lack of enthusiasm. B we've seen
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: younger voters breaking more towards Trump because look, younger voters,
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: it was easy. Voting for hope and change is an
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: easy thing for young people to do. But getting mugged
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: by reality has a way of changing your perspective. It's
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: one thing when you're coming out of four years of
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: Trump and the economy is good, you're safe, and you
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: feel like, Okay, I'm going to go with a feel
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: good vote. Now, look, young people are discovering now inflation.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: They're trying to pay their bills. They go to the
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: grocery store and holy cow, their paycheck doesn't even cover
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: their expenses. You know, they look at their bills, they
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: try to fill up a tank of gas and wow,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: that hurts. And then you look at say a young
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: couple that's going to buy their first home. And it
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: was only four years ago that we had two and
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: a half percent interest rates. Now you've got seven percent
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: interest rates, and young people I think are really feeling that.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: And so that.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: You've got both decreased enthusiasm but you also have the
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: people who are feeling the and the pain of this
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: bad record. Are many of the people who four years
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: ago pulled the lever for Joe Biden. Then I think
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: they're going to be less eager to do so this time.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: You know, there's something that you just mentioned there, and
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: it's about people just feeling the pain every time they
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: get their paycheck and it's not enough to cover their bills.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: There was a big policy that was rolled out and
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: then I don't know if you've noticed this, but I've
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: noticed it. Like now it's like nonexistent. It was this
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: big twenty five thousand dollars for first time home buyers
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: trying to bribe people to vote for Kama Harrison.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I'll give you twenty five thousand dollars if you haven't
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: bought a house, And now I haven't heard anything about that.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: Is it because they know that they can't do it
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: usually they don't mind lying, like they lied multiple times
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: on student loans. Or is it because they're not talking
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: about it because they've gotten caught so many times promising
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: things like student loan forgiveness that they haven't been able
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: to do.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think people just thought it was gimmicky. I
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: think people were skeptical of it. I can tell you
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: anyone who attended even a basic ECON class would know
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: the only effect of that is going to be to
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: raise the cost of houses by twenty five thousand dollars.
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's what it's going to do.
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: You know.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: It also struck me it was really really sharp compared
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: to the bill that passed California that actually Gavin knew
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: some veto that, if I remember right, was one hundred
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: and fifty thousand dollars for a home if you're an
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: illegal alien. And so it was striking that Kamala was
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: offering so much less to American citizens than California Democrats
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: were willing to give the illegals. I just think people
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: heard that and it just just sounded like BS to them.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about also the price controls on food.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was it's clearly a communist idea. It
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: was one that was just obliterated when she said it
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: by so many on TV. One of those and it
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: was an interesting point because I think it stuck with
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: me was Kevin o' He's one of the guys on
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Shark Tank. A lot of Americans that maybe aren't watching,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: you know, like CNBC, but they know Shark Tank and
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: when he said what he said, it went viral. And
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: I think it went viral because people know him from
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Shark Tank and they actually kind of like him. And
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: this is what he said back in August, and it's
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: still today showing up on my timeline with I think
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: there's forty or fifty million views.
• 9:26
  Speaker 6: Kevin since you brought that up. She's calling it price gouging,
• 9:29
  Speaker 6: you know, price controls, price fixing, whatever it is. I'm
• 9:34
  Speaker 6: wondering why we aren't hearing more business leaders, more grocery
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: store operators coming out and saying this plan is crazy,
• 9:42
  Speaker 6: it doesn't work. Why are we hearing more of them
• 9:44
  Speaker 6: push back on this.
• 9:46
  Speaker 7: Oh, they're coming, don't worry, don't worry. There's a lot
• 9:50
  Speaker 7: of narrative going on in the background waiting for Labor
• 9:52
  Speaker 7: Day to.
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: Pass this policy.
• 9:55
  Speaker 7: And the best way to describe it is un American.
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: And let me explain why.
• 10:00
  Speaker 7: In America, we don't tell a farmer what to sell
• 10:03
  Speaker 7: is apple for, and we don't tell a grocer what
• 10:06
  Speaker 7: to sell it for. That's how our economy works. We
• 10:09
  Speaker 7: don't have the Ministry of grocery pricing. There's no way
• 10:12
  Speaker 7: to monitor this. We tried the seventies, they tried it
• 10:16
  Speaker 7: in the late eighties and the Soviet Union. They've been
• 10:19
  Speaker 7: trying it in Venezuela. It leads to shortages and hyperinflation.
• 10:24
  Speaker 7: This policy is beyond bad. It's insane, and I think
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: it will go nowhere. I get why she's doing it,
• 10:31
  Speaker 7: it's populous, but we're all waiting for when she has
• 10:35
  Speaker 7: to sit in front of you a reporter, who will
• 10:38
  Speaker 7: ask her how she's going to implement this. That's when
• 10:41
  Speaker 7: this falls apart. There is no way to do this,
• 10:44
  Speaker 7: and every time it's tried, it's ended up in an
• 10:47
  Speaker 7: absolute catastrophe.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: Every time it's been tried, it ends up an absolute catastrophe.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: And this clip was back in August when he said it,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: and yet still it seems like it's breaking news for
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: people that are in normal Middle America.
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: Now, I will say there are a couple of premises
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: of what he said that have proven false. Number One,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: he says, when she sits in front of you a reporter, Well,
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: she's not sitting in front of reporters, and he said
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: who secondly will ask her how she's going to do it.
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: The handful of time she has sat in front of
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: her reporters, they throw softballs to her and ask her
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: how she became so amazing and wonderful, and you know,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: I'm waiting for the what's your favorite ice cream? Although
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: that's their Joe Biden question. So she's not getting any
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: pushback from the press. That being said, like you made
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: a comment when you said that that that that the
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: price controls were communist, and it reminded me of you know,
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: during the debate, Trump said, well, she's a Marxist and
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: her father was a Marxist professor, and I got to
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: say both when you said it, when he said it,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: I think to some people that seems a little jarring
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: because the word communist or Marxist just sounds like an insult.
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: It's like you're calling someone, you know, just a jerk.
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: But look, being a Marxist, be a communist, that that
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: is an actual thing. It is something that has substance
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: and content. Marxism is the philosophy that was taught by
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Karl Marx, and it is the predicate for communism. And
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: the reason you said, and you said rightly that price
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: controls are communists. But this is not even theoretical Marxism. Actually,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: theoretical Marxism doesn't have a whole lot about about price controls.
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: It is rather practical Marxism that you look at communist countries,
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: you look at the Soviet Union, you look at you,
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: you look at Cuba, you look at at Venezuela, and
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: what they end up doing is the government fixes prices
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: and says, okay, if you want a gallon of milk,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: we're going to say a gallon of milk is a dollar.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: And then they just pick a number, and they pick
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: a number that they want to sound low because people
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: will be happy. And then what what O'Leary said is
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: what happens. The price controls are always wrong and you
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: end up having massive shortages. So if you looked at
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: the Soviet Union, you just saw empty grocery shells, so
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: it was great you had a dollar for a gallon
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: of milk. There was just no milk, but you were
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: really happy it was so cheap if it were there.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: And that Oleary is right that every place it has
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: been tried, it fails. And the reason is a price
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: is reflecting millions of inputs and outputs and its supply
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: and demand meeting each other, and the government has never
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: been smart enough to figure that out. They always always,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: always get it wrong. And this is where left us say, well,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: next time, we'll do it better. Well, it never has been.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: Nobody ever has gotten it right. And I'm willing to
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: venture that Kamala is not smarter than everyone else who's
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: tried price controls in the past.
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: So when you look at this as an issue, Larry
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Kudlow when it came out, he said, this is price controls,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: controls by any other name, and let's just call it
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: what it is.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: It's it's been a failure.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: But he also warned about what happens with the black market,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: and he said he went in and he said, let's
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: just talk about profits, because she kept coming back, and
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: this is what the Democrats do. They demonize people that
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: make money. And he said, let's just talk about corporate margins.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: And he said, if they're gouging somebody, they must be
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: enormously profitable. And they are not referring to grocers, right,
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: he said, okay, He said, grocery store profit margin is
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: one point two percent, the meat, beef and poultry four
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: point seven percent. All of American businesses, by the way
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: are well above that at eight and a half percent.
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: And he said, look, if she wants to go after
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: somebody for making too much money, Apple, for example, they
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: make twenty six percent, Microsoft thirty six percent, Navida fifty
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: three percent. He said, So the idea that the grocery
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: market is the problem with a grocery stores profit margin
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: on average last year was one point two percent, he said,
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: his total insanity. And this is her trying to blame
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: her bad policies on somebody else.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Well, look, she has a political imperative to do this,
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: which is people are really unhappy with inflation, they're unhappy
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: with the economy, they're unhappy with the illegal immigration, they're
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: unhappy with crime, and so she knows. I remember at
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: the debate, the very first question asked in the debate
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: is are you better off now than you were four
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: years ago? That is, there's such a powerful, inherent impetus
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: to this that well, okay, listen to what Tim Waltz
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: had to say on exactly this point.
• 15:33
  Speaker 7: We can't afford, we can't afford four.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: More years of this senator.
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: That should be an ad that's instantly made, not just
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: for Trump, but I think for anybody running for Off.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: It's like Harrison Waltz.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's right in front of him, it's on
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: the podium, the signs are behind him in Pennsylvania, and
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: he says, we can't handle four more years of this,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: and yet it's her policies it got us to where
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: we are right now.
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know if the Trump campaign has actually
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: put out as an ad. I know I've seen on
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: Twitter that clip and then I'm Donald Trump and I
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: approved this message because it literally that the inherent impetus
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: to say, are you better off now than you are
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: four years ago? Tim walt is saying, we can't afford
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: four more years of this. Wait a second. Kamala Harris
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: is in charge. She and Joe Biden are both in
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: They are the president and vice president. And that's their
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: fundamental problem is they're trying to run a change campaign
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: of everything sucks, so vote for me and I'll change it.
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: But she's the one in office. And listen, it's incumbent.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: The media are not going to point that out. Kamala
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: is not going to point that out. So it is
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: incumbent on the Trump campaign to point that out.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: All right, So you mentioned the Trump campaign and Donald
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: Trump has already said it made it very queer. He's
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: not having another debate. Kamala Harris has said I want
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: another debate after the last one. There's a vice president
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: debate that's coming out in the next six weeks. Usually,
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: and traditionally, vice president debates don't really move the needle
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: when it comes to the polls.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: They just don't.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Now that can be good or bad, depending on how
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: you look at it, but traditionally it doesn't move the needle.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Is this vice president to debate, in your opinion, any
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: more important because there is only one debate between these
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: times beforehand.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: Look, I think some people will watch it. You and
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: I will watch it because we're both politics nerds. But
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: I think the viewership will be a fraction of the
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: viewership that watched Trump versus Harris, and I think it'll
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: probably be the two of them just pounding the hell
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: out of each other. I suspect I suspect neither of
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: them like each other very much, and I think it'll
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: be nasty. I think they'll be snarky. I think they'll
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: be you know, JD is very bright, Waltz appears to
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: be bright as well, So I think they'll both be
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: just slugging it out. But I do not see the
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: VP debate as moving a significant number of votes either direction.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It goes back to like you said earlier, it's the
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: economy stupid. I want to deal with the second issue
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: on your list, and that was illegal immigration, and also
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: it really does come into the also the issue of crime.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: We're going to deal with that in the moment, but
• 18:16
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  Speaker 2: service today. So let's move to subject number two that
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: you think is really it's pulling, not just you saying
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: this or I'm saying this, it's pulling at number two,
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: and it is the issue of an open or in
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: illegal immigration. Democrats, I don't think realize how big of
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: a liability this was going to be for them, But
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: we're seeing it play out in places like Arola, Colorado.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: We're seeing it play out in New York City. We're
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: seeing it playing out in all of these major quote
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: sanctuary cities that they bragged about just two years ago
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: in the election.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: We're a sanctuary city.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Where a sanctuary city, We're a welcoming city, We're a
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: loving city. Hell, I mean the mayor of New York
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: City was running on that that we're a sanctuary city.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Now he's like, get out of here, you're ruining my city.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: That is going to be a big liability and election day.
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: And look, broadly speaking, there are two major demographic trends
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: in America. Number one, blue collar voters are moving right.
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: That that is moving Midwestern states more republican. But number two,
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: suburban voters and in particular suburban women, have been moving left.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: And that has been moving big suburban states like Georgia,
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: like Texas, like Arizona, they've been getting more purple because
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: they have large suburban populations. Part of the reason that
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: illegal immigration is is such a powerful issue this race
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: is that with suburban women, illegal immigration is often topping
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: the list of their top issue and listen. For many
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: suburban women in twenty twenty, they were not particularly fond
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: of Trump's tone and his rhetoric mean even though they
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: agreed with him on the issues, that they didn't like
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: the way he said it, and many of them voted Democrats.
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: The question now, as illegal immigration and crime has gotten
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: worse and worse, is Okay, you're a suburban mom, do
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: you really want an MS thirteen gangbanger living next door
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: to you and threatening your kids? And it is it's
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: becoming real when they see Venezuelan gangs taking over apartment
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: buildings in Aurural, Colorado, or in al Paso, or in Chicago.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: When when they see day after day after day Americans
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: being killed, women being raped, children being raped by illegal
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: immigrants being released, that fundamentally starts to it really goes
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: to safety and security. It becomes real, It becomes wait,
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: this is threatening my family. And so that is an
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: issue which which I hope every day between now an
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: election day. The economy and illegal immigration are every day,
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: every topic, all day law.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: When you look at not just the issue of safety,
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: is the issue of the financial burden on the community
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: becoming enough of an issue that it is going to
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: matter an election to I say that because in Colorado,
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: for example, in Denver, they're actually having to move resources around,
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: They're not able to hire an adequate police force because
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: so much money is now going to take care of
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: illegal immigrants. New York City, it is a drain on
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: their economy, not just the safety aspect, but a drain
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: financially the amount of money it's taking. Is that also
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: one of the things that you think Democrats maybe didn't
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: calculate when they were figuring this one out.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's a bigger issue for Democrat politicians
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: than it is for voters. So if you're the mayor
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: of New York, the financial drains a real problem because
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: you've got to figure out where to get the money
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: for all these hotel rooms that you're putting illegal aliens in.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure the voters necessarily make the connection between
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: where that money is coming from. It is an issue,
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: but I think a far more potent issue in New
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: York City, for example, is we covered on a podcast
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: a few weeks ago the reports that's seventy five percent,
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: seventy five percent of the crimes in Midtown Manhattan were
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: being committed by illegal aliens. I mean, that is a
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: stunning number. That is a number that I think people
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: understandably get really upset about, why are you bringing criminals
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: into my community?
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: And it's why.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: Kamala is desperately trying to run away from this issue. Look,
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: she has spent her entire career denouncing the wall, arguing
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: for amnesty, saying illegal immigration shouldn't be illegal. On every issue,
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: she's been an open border radical. She is right now
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: spending millions of dollars running TV ads with Donald Trump's
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: border wall. I mean, it is a fundamentally a duplicitous strategy.
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: She's trying to pretend that her record is the exact
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: opposite of what it is. I think that can work sometimes,
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: but at the end of the day, I'm a big
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: believer that truth will prevail, and I think it's just
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: so fundamentally false, and I think the Democrats are pretty
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: skeptical of the voters. They think the voters are stupid
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: and gullible, frankly, and that they can be conned. I
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: think the voters have more sense than that.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: You know, you mentioned the moments that stick with us,
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: and I go back to another viral moment that happened
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: this last week, and it was the former chief of
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Border Patrol agent that was ordered by the Biden Harris
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: administration to cover up the disastrous numbers at the border,
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: and when he said this to Congress. It is still
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: at this moment going viral.
• 25:56
  Speaker 5: Once where it was out the border was far easier
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: to cross. Sandy went to over one hundred sias in
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty two, well over that in twenty twenty three,
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: and even more than that registered this year. These are
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: only the ones we caught. At the time, I was
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: told I could not release any information on this increase
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: in SIAS or mention any of the arrests. The administration
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: was trying to convince the public there was no threat
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: at the border. Fentanyl is another issue. The San Diego
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: area sees between eighty and ninety percent of the methan
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: phetamine in fentanyl seizures. Annually for our entire country. With
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: little enforcement at the border, these drugs were coming through
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: in mass. During my last year in San Diego, the
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: price for a single pill of fentanyl, for example, went
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: from ten dollars to twenty five cents.
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: To make matters worse.
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: During twenty twenty two and twenty three, I had to
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: shut down San Diego traffic checkpoints, which are critical for
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: drug in addiction because the resources had been diverted to
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: the process and release mission.
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: The large numbers also had.
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: And still have a negative impact to the San Diego community.
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: I had to release the illegal aliens by the hundreds
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: each day into communities who could not support them. To
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: quiet the problem, two flights a week were provided from
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: San Diego to Texas. These flights simply brought aliens that
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: would have been released in San Diego over to Texas.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's got to just make you live it
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: as the Senator from Texas to hear him just say, yeah,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: they just sent planes and dropped him off in Texas.
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: Well, of course it does. And for this White House
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: it's all political. And so they've decided Joe Biden, Kamala
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: Harris that they hate Texas and They're perfectly happy to
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: dump as many illegal aliens as they can in Texas.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: Never mind the millions that we have flooding into our
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: state because of Joe Biden Kamala Harris's open border policies.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: Now they're flying him in from other states to Texas
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: and it is at the end of the day, completely indefensible.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: And my hope is that the Trump campaign puts this
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: issue in front of the voters each and every day
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: because Kamala Harris does not want to talk about this, So.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about I think finally, where we are and
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: when it comes to the Senate, which is so important
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: the Senate, if we don't have control of the Senate,
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: it just makes things so hard, even if you've got
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: the White House to get stuff done that can have
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: real change and move us back to where we need
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: to go. A lot of people that walk up to
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: me ask me that I'm sure the same questions they
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: ask you, which is, okay, can we flip the Senate?
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Can we get back control of the Senate?
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: And you've got to look at the swing states, and
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: you got to look at these some tight elections. We
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: thought we were gonna have a good chance in the
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: last the mid terms to get the Senate back.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: We didn't.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: And so now you look at this this time, what
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: does it look like for us and and and how
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: should people look at these issues and how are they
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: going to work in these swing states.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: So, look, there's good news and bad news that The
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: good news is it's a very favorable map for Republicans.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: There a bunch of Democrat seats that are up in
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: red states or purple states that Trump has a real
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: shot of winning. And so six seven weeks ago, when
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: Biden was at the top of the ticket, Republicans were
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: on track to win four or five six Senate seats.
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: It was set up to be just a fantastic election.
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: The election is titaned. Kamala replacing Joe Biden at the
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: top of the tickets has moved the race of the
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: Democrats direction. And the reason was Joe Biden was only
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: getting about eighty five percent of Democrats when he was
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: the nominee. Democrats were demoralized, they were dispirited, they were fractured.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: And by the way, those eighty five percent that meant
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent we're either going to stay home or we're
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: looking to vote Republican and so it was going to
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: be a big, big Republican year Kamala with her at
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: the top of the ticket, much of the Democrat party
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: has come home and so she's getting anywhere from ninety
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: two to ninety five percent of the Democrats.
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: That has moved the races.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: So right now the Democrats have a fifty one forty
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: nine advantage in the Senate. If you look at if
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: you assume that the polling today is what would happen,
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: and that's not a fair assumption, by the way. We're
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: six weeks out and I think the issue set favors Republicans.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: But if you assume the polling today is what would happen,
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: then number one, Republicans are going to win West Virginia.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: It's essentially one hundred percent that we're going to win
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: West Virginia. Joe Manchin, a Democrat, is the incumbent Senator
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: from West Virginia. He's not running for reelection, and so
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: Jim Justice, the governor, is the Republican nominee. The Democrats
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: have essentially conceded West Virginia. It's such a red state.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: It went for Trump by thirty eight points last time.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: We will win West Virginia. That means we start with
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: the Senate at fifty to fifty. Of the remaining swing states,
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: the only one where the Senate candidate is consistently leading
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: is Montana. But we are consistently leading in Montana. That
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: means if the election day were today and the polls
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: are accurate, the result would be fifty one forty nine,
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: a Republican majority. Now, let's break through state by state.
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: What are the states that are in play, and we'll
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: just go alphabetically through the various swing states.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Now, before we go through those states, I want to
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• 32:50
  Speaker 2: let's go through these states. And this is when I
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: say to vertical listeners, grab your pen and paper, because
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: this is where on election night you're gonna love watching
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: the results come in With these different states and the
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: knowledge that we're about to give you all.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Right, so let's start with Arizona. The best way typically
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: to consume polling numbers is to look to the Real
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: Clear Politics average and so look their variations among poles.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: Some polls are more accurate than others. But the way
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: most political professionals do is they look to the polling average,
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: and the theory is the averages sort of. It averages
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: out the ups and the downs. So if you look
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: to the Real Clear Politics average in Arizona, right now,
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: this is a race between Gayego the Democrat, and Kerry
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: Lake the Republican. Right now, Gayego is leading by four
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: point three points, So that's the average. That's the average
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: of the last four polls that have been done in
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: that race. Trump has a good chance of winning Arizona.
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: So right now Trump is outperforming Carrie Lake in that state,
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: but four points is very winnable. She can win that race.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: But according to the average, right now, the Democrats are ahead.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: Let's move to Michigan. If you look at Michigan, the
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: two candidates are Slotkin the Democrat and Mike Rodgers the Republican.
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: In Michigan, the Real Clear Politics average is the Democrat
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: at five point one percent, So again five points is
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: pretty close, but it does show an advantage right now
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: for the Democrats, and that's an average of one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: Eight polls in the last month.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: The Democrat is ahead by an average of five point
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: one percent.
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: All right, let's go to Montana.
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: Montana, I mentioned is the brightest spot in terms of
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: the pickup. This is a battle between John Tester the Democrat,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: the incumbent, and Tim Sheehey the Republican. And she He
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: is a head on an average of five point two points,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: so that's sizable.
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: It's not decisive.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: Tester could still come back and win it, but that's
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: been a consistent lead. If you look at the last
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: four polls, she He plus six, she He plus seven,
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: she He plus six, and she He plus two, so
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: that that's been a consistent lead. All right, Let's look
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: to Nevada. So Nevada, the numbers are bumpier. The incumbent
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: is Jackie Rosen. She's a Democrat. Sam Brown is a Republican.
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: The real Clear Politics average is Rosen by eight point
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: eight percent, so that's a pretty sizable lead. Nevada is
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: another state where Trump is very competitive and so he
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: could win Trump it may be that the polling numbers
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: or understating where Brown is but eight point eight percent
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: is there's some distance to be closed on the average
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: polling there.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: I'll ask you this real quick before you move forward,
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: because it's a question. I know everybody's asking their head.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: All right, you just mentioned this state, and then you
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: mentioned Arizona earlier where Trump is leading but Carlake is
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: not there. How often do you see a presidential election
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: cycle historically where the Republican wins in the state but
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: the person next down the bound the Senate race loses,
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: where people walk in there yes for Trump and no
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: for the Senate candidate. Is that happened very often?
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that that happens with some regularity. And Trump in
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: most states is going to get more votes than the
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: down ballot Republicans. For one thing, there are people that
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: come in that just vote president and leave. And then
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: there are also there will be some voters in every
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: one of these states who votes for Trump at the
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: top of the ticket and then for a Democrat Senate candidate.
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: I wish they didn't. It is frustrating as all get out,
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: but there exists, and to.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: Because way, you're like voting against your own interests of
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: what you're saying you want for the country. With the President, well,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: he needs the votes in the House and Senate to
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: get that agenda done.
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and there tend to be more crossover voters who
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: do Trump and a Democrat Senate candidate, then there are
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: crossover voters who vote Kamala Harris at a Republican Senate candidate.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: It just at the end of the day, it has
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: tended to be a one way ratchet. Let's go to Ohio.
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: Ohio is the next closest after Montana, and the two
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: candidates are shared. Brown the Democrat, who's the incumbent, Bernie
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: Mourno the Republican. The Real Claire Politics average is the
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: Democrat up by three point six percent. So the last
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: three polls were plus two plus five, plus four, So
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Ohio is definitely winnable. Trump is extremely likely to win Ohio.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: He could win Ohio by double digits. But right now
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: Brown is polling substantially ahead of where Kamala Harris is
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: in Ohio. And so Ohio is a state where there
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: are a number of voters right now who say they're
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: voting for Donald Trump, and yet a Democrat senator who
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: will fight to undermine everything Trump does every single day
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: in the Senate, Which is why I wish voters wouldn't
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: do that. I don't think that makes sense, and I
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: think it ends up working against yourself. But nonetheless, there's
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: some voters that do all right. Pennsylvania. So Pennsylvania is
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: probably the most important battle around in the country. It
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: is the state most likely to decide the presidential race.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: The incumbent is Bob Casey is a Democrat. Dave McCormick
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: the Republican, a very good friend of mine who I've
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: endorsed in campaigned with multiple times. Across Pennsylvania. The Real
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: Clear Politics average is four point nine percent. And so
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: starting from so back in August, there was a tie,
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: then Casey plus one, then Casey plus seven, then case
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: plus eighth andk C plus four, then Casey plus nine,
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: then Casey plus five and k C plus five, and
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: Casey plus five, then Casey plus nine, and then the
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: Washington Post the most recent poll showed it as a tie.
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: So look, there's some there's some variability on that. So
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: the last two polls were Casey plus nine and a tie.
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's a big delta between those two. Yeah,
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: and so, and so it's why you tend to look
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: to the average, because the average kind of takes out
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: the highs and lows. And so four point nine percent,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: you would say, right now the Democrats have an advantage,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: But four point nine percent you can definitely close between
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: now an election day, and I think the issue set
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: favors us all right. Maryland, Maryland is a state that
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: shouldn't be a battleground. It's a very blue state. It
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: is going to go it is going to go for
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: Kamala Harris by double digits. And yet you've got Larry Hogan,
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: Larry Hogan, the former governor. There is a Republican, very
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: popular governor running against a Democrat. Also Brooks. The Real
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: Clear Politics average is six point eight percent. But again
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: there's been a lot of variability on this. So back
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: in August there was a poll that was a tie,
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: and then Democrat plus five, Democrat plus seven, and then
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: there was one just recently Democrat plus fifteen. So Maryland
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: is a race that is winnable. But to do that,
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: Hogan is going to have to outperform Trump by twenty
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: points or more that ain't easy to do. That that
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: is a big, big delta. He was the governor there,
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: he was very popular, and he's the only he's the
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: only Republican who has a prayer to win in Maryland.
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: But Maryland is not an easy state for a Republican
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: to win. And the final battleground is Wisconsin. Wisconsin is
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat who's the incumbent. Eric Hovedy is
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: the Republican running against her. The real Clear Politics average
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: is Democrat four point six percent, so again close winnable,
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: but right now the Democrats have the advantage. Although it's
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: interesting if you look at the polls, but going back
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: to August, it was Democrat plus six, Democrat plus five,
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: Democrat plus eight, but then the last four polls have
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: been Democrat plus three, Democrat plus three, Democrat plus four,
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: Democrat plus three.
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: So the race is.
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: In the last couple of weeks and it's about a
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: three and a half point differential in the in the
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: last four polls, which means Wisconsin is very winnable. And look,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: every one of these states that I mentioned is winnable
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: by the Republicans. But for us to win, the numbers
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: need to shift four or five points. And to do that,
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: we've got to focus on the issues. And the issues
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: are the same issues as the presidential the economy, inflation,
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: illegal immigration, and crime. And if we focus on those,
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: I think we've got a real shot at winning every
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: one of those six weeks.
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: It's getting here very quickly, election day and early voting.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: It's incredible we are in it now. I hope you
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: guys will take the show, share it wherever you are
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: on social media. Make sure that subscriber auto download button
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: will keep covering these important poll numbers as they come out.
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: And on those in between days, as you know, we
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: do the show Monday, Wednesday Friday. On those in between days,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: grab my show, that Ben Ferguson podcast, and I'll keep
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: you up to date on the latest breaking news as
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: well the Center. I will see you back here Wednesday morning.