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JP Morgan Staffing, Bridgewater Cuts · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
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  Speaker 2: JP Morgan planning step back to office five days.
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  Speaker 3: A week in the brown.
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  Speaker 4: New office building, Yes on Parka.
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  Speaker 3: Exactly, waiting for this headline for four years.
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  Speaker 2: Exactly right, so JP Morgan? And how quickly will the
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  Speaker 2: others follow?
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  Speaker 3: Very quickly?
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  Speaker 2: That's what I'm kind of thinking here.
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  Speaker 3: Five days a week. But you have to have a question.
• 0:45
  Speaker 5: You have to wonder will there be some flexibility, Like
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  Speaker 5: if you're like, hey, I need to work at home
• 0:49
  Speaker 5: a couple of days, Like.
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  Speaker 3: Is that more genuinely accepted?
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: I think what it's going to be is you're going
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: to be more willing to ask for it, and I
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: think the manager will be more willing to give it.
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  Speaker 2: But it's like I need a day here, maybe two
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  Speaker 2: or three months later I need another day there, Whereas
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  Speaker 2: before maybe I wouldn't have asked for that flexibility, and
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: as a manager, I may not have given that flexibility. Now,
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  Speaker 2: I think that flexibility is kind of there.
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  Speaker 4: But now you get to work in the death store, though,
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  Speaker 4: which is what everybody seems.
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  Speaker 3: It's calling it.
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  Speaker 5: Oh that's funny, it looks it looks very cool. Let's
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  Speaker 5: say on All Street for a second. So the other
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  Speaker 5: news of the morning, one of the top read stories
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  Speaker 5: on the Bloomberg terminal is Bridgewater, that company cutting seven
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  Speaker 5: percent of a staff and efforts to remain nimble. Michael Moore,
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  Speaker 5: managing editor for Finance in The America's joins us. But
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  Speaker 5: hang on a second, J. P. Morgan five days a week,
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  Speaker 5: you're surprised, Uh.
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  Speaker 6: No, not really. I mean the majority of their staff
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  Speaker 6: was already doing that, but this is the this would
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  Speaker 6: be the rest of the staff. So we've seen some
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  Speaker 6: firms move in that direction. Others, you know, have used
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  Speaker 6: the flexibility as a recruiting tool.
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  Speaker 2: City.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, City has stuck with three days a week for
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  Speaker 6: a good portion of its staff. So I think we
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  Speaker 6: will see a difference among the firms. Some of the
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  Speaker 6: European firms have used it as a recruiting tool. So,
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  Speaker 6: but you know, Jamie Diamond has been very vocal about
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  Speaker 6: his views that you know, people work better in the
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  Speaker 6: office together, it helps develop talent. So you know, I
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  Speaker 6: think it will be kind of, you know, leader by leader,
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  Speaker 6: kind of setting the agenda.
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  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, the fact is it does
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  Speaker 2: work from home, So that does work. Let's get people back,
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  Speaker 2: so we'll see how goes Bridge Rotter Associates huge hedge
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  Speaker 2: fund cutting staff. Is this just the normal culling of
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  Speaker 2: people or something different going on here?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's an unusual one for just for the reason
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  Speaker 6: that they are coming off their best year in many
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  Speaker 6: years for the Flagship Fund. You know, I think the
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  Speaker 6: new CEO is definitely trying to shake things up a
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  Speaker 6: little bit. He has, you know, replaced some of the
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  Speaker 6: top management. They've brought some people from the outside, which
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  Speaker 6: they had historically done under Ray Dalio. So I think this,
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  Speaker 6: you know that the stated goal here is there are
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  Speaker 6: some areas where they want to hire. They don't want
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  Speaker 6: headcount to get too crazy. This kind of brings them
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  Speaker 6: back to where they were, you know, a little over
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  Speaker 6: a year ago in terms of headcount and allows them
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  Speaker 6: to kind of be a little more selective.
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  Speaker 5: Did they over hire or something, or do they just
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  Speaker 5: want to like just move focus or something like that.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 6: I think you know, you have seen them, you know,
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  Speaker 6: announced some you know, efforts on the AI front. They
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  Speaker 6: may want to do some more hiring there, but we
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  Speaker 6: have seen some of the hedge funds more broadly do
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  Speaker 6: some over hiring. You know, there has been a talent war,
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  Speaker 6: so this could be a bit of a correction there.
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  Speaker 2: It's a unique place to work, isn't It's what's yeah,
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  Speaker 2: I've heard that. What makes it unique at Bridgewater.
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  Speaker 6: Well, they have a you know, they have this you know,
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  Speaker 6: they've long had this culture of radical transparency, of being
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  Speaker 6: very blunt with each other. A lot of the senior
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  Speaker 6: people have been there since they were in their early twenties,
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: have grown up there, haven't worked elsewhere, So there is
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  Speaker 6: a bit of an insular culture there. I think near Bardea,
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: you know, has came in a little bit later in
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  Speaker 6: his career, so it brings a different perspective than Dalio,
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  Speaker 6: who built this place, you know, around his principles. So
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  Speaker 6: I think you could see a bit of a relaxing
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  Speaker 6: of that culture while still you know, being kind of
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  Speaker 6: a unique beast out in Connecticut.
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  Speaker 5: Going back to JP Morgan for a second, not about
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  Speaker 5: the five days, but JP Morgan. The latest bank to
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  Speaker 5: quit the Climate Finance Group is Fall City pauls Baba.
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  Speaker 5: How are we understanding it? Is this like a complete
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  Speaker 5: backlash against climate and DEI for example, or is this
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  Speaker 5: just sort of like we're going to move to the
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  Speaker 5: middle or we just rebranding it.
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  Speaker 3: I think it's a bit of rebranding.
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  Speaker 6: I think they were getting a lot of heat from
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  Speaker 6: some politicians over some of these pledges.
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  Speaker 4: They wanted something with.
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  Speaker 5: Pledges like we're not going to lend money to oil
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  Speaker 5: and gas kind of thing.
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  Speaker 4: That's how they were perceived.
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  Speaker 6: They weren't always written that way, but that's how they
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  Speaker 6: were perceived that. You know, they got the CEO's when
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  Speaker 6: they were in front of Congress a.
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  Speaker 4: Little over a year ago.
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  Speaker 6: Jd Vance made a big point on this. So I
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  Speaker 6: think they thought we can we can do this in
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  Speaker 6: ways of lending to renewable energy without taking such a
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  Speaker 6: public stance that will get us a lot of political backlash.
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  Speaker 6: So I think you'll still see efforts on this, but
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  Speaker 6: they won't be as grand as this climate pledge that
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  Speaker 6: they had all signed up to.
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  Speaker 4: What is this?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, the timing is not a coincidence. Time assuming
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  Speaker 2: given the new administration coming in. Is that how it's
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  Speaker 2: being read or is that are they saying anything about
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  Speaker 2: that the timing?
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  Speaker 6: I think yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence. I
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  Speaker 6: think the political winds have shifted on this, and in general,
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  Speaker 6: I think there is you know, these always these pledges
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  Speaker 6: always kind of came with an understanding of, Okay, we
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  Speaker 6: need to help our oil and gas clients transition to
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  Speaker 6: this new world. So it's not going to be you know,
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  Speaker 6: cutting ties with the big oil companies. But I think
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  Speaker 6: they're being more cautious than that.
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  Speaker 3: And it's not just you know, banks.
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  Speaker 5: You should point at McDonald's today, the piece coming out
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  Speaker 5: saying that it's walking back its DEI goals, saying it's
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  Speaker 5: changing its approach to diversity, equity inclusion, no longer setting
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  Speaker 5: quote aspirational representation goals, instead focusing on embedding inclusion.
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  Speaker 3: Practices into its daily business.
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  Speaker 5: I don't know what that difference is, but that's why
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  Speaker 5: I wonder if it's just a rebrand like now you
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: don't want to say ESG, but if you still have
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  Speaker 5: some sort of like net zero goals, maybe that terminology
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  Speaker 5: is more okay. It's just sort of a branding and
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  Speaker 5: moving away from something extreme.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 6: I think it's not wanting to be seen as taking
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  Speaker 6: a political stance more taking a This is good for
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  Speaker 6: our risk perspective.
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  Speaker 2: I feel like it's been you know, across the economy,
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  Speaker 2: maybe peak woke at some point or peak DEI whatever.
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  Speaker 2: The pendulum, as you say, yes, say the pendulum just
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  Speaker 2: swinging back a little bit. Sorry enough to stay on
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  Speaker 2: top of that. Michael Moore, thank you so much. We
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  Speaker 2: appreciate that. Michael Moore as a managing editor for Finance
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  Speaker 2: in the America's Bloomberg News, joining us here in our
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  Speaker 2: Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio looking at that story Bridgewater, big
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  Speaker 2: big hedge fund, cutting about seven percent of its workforce
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  Speaker 2: and an effort to remain quote nimble. So there you go.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: And now it's also I think when you look at
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  Speaker 2: some of these hedge funds, you know they're starting. We've
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  Speaker 2: seen some hedge funds return capital to investors because they're
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  Speaker 2: just getting too big and they can't find the opportunities
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  Speaker 2: to invest the capital and generate their returns they want,
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  Speaker 2: so let's just give it back. And that's what we've
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  Speaker 2: seen in that. I think in a hedge fund business
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  Speaker 2: over the last twenty years has been the funds. More
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: and more money's going to fewer and fewer big funds,
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  Speaker 2: and they're just getting bigger, whether it's Point seventy two
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  Speaker 2: or Citadel or some of those types of.
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  Speaker 5: People on flip side. Not every hedge fund is doing well.
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  Speaker 5: Hedge fund Derek Jupiter has suffered its worst ever losing.
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  Speaker 5: The street got a thirty two point seven percent decline
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  Speaker 5: last year. This follows a forty three point three percent
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  Speaker 5: plunge in twenty twenty three.
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  Speaker 3: Yikes.
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  Speaker 5: Assets at the firm has fallen to around eight hundred
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  Speaker 5: and eighteen million five years.
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  Speaker 3: Two years ago it was five billion.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's not good.
• 8:21
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• 8:40
  Speaker 2: The ISM Services Index data came out looks so better
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: than expected, and we want to get right to that
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: ISM data because that's something that's kind of moving the
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: markets here.
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: Yields popped a little bit.
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  Speaker 2: Higher here on the back of some of that economic
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: data we got the ten year treasury Now I'll put
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  Speaker 2: about five bass points four point sixty seven on the news.
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  Speaker 2: Stocks pulled back, also sp down. Just Actually Steve Miller
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  Speaker 2: joints us he's the chairman at that's the Institute for
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: Supply Management, Hasty, you've talked to us about this ism data.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Alex and I are looking at this and looks really
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  Speaker 2: strong across the board. What are you seeing?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, same thing. You know.
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  Speaker 7: What drove the increase this month was business activity and
• 9:20
  Speaker 7: supplier deliveries kind of offsetting that a little bit. We're
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  Speaker 7: seeing a continued draw down in backlog of orders, but
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  Speaker 7: with a lower disruption and supply chains that we've seen
• 9:31
  Speaker 7: in the month, it kind of makes sense.
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  Speaker 5: Any of this related to the potential of tariffs coming
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: on in twenty twenty five or twenty twenty six, Well.
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  Speaker 7: Some of the inventory activity seems to be a result
• 9:43
  Speaker 7: of concerns over tariffs. By far, the commentary that came
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: through from the respondents was concerns over what tariff impacts
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  Speaker 7: might have and I think we saw some of that
• 9:55
  Speaker 7: in the sentiment around pricings pricing.
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  Speaker 4: We saw quite a lift month over month.
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  Speaker 2: Im services prices paid came in well above the forecast,
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  Speaker 2: well above last period.
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: How do we interpret that?
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, I would directly relate that to some of the
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  Speaker 7: pricing activity that's coming in for next year's contracts. There
• 10:16
  Speaker 7: is risk management around tariff impacts, and we saw some
• 10:19
  Speaker 7: of the commentary talking about price increases in anticipation of
• 10:24
  Speaker 7: what impacts there might be from the terrace. And it
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  Speaker 7: was across almost it was fourteen of the eighteen industries
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: had commentary around potential negative impact from terrace.
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  Speaker 3: So is the could this be the peak then for services?
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  Speaker 3: Like how will that feed through?
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
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  Speaker 7: I think that we'll see based on the supplier the
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  Speaker 7: supplier deliveries number impact, we'll see that drop down again
• 10:50
  Speaker 7: in January, assuming there's no port strike, and that'll give
• 10:56
  Speaker 7: a little bit negative pressure on the overall PMI. But
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  Speaker 7: this quarter is the strongest quarter we've had in a while,
• 11:03
  Speaker 7: and I believe it since the beginning of twenty twenty three.
• 11:07
  Speaker 7: I feel really strongly about where the number is. It's
• 11:10
  Speaker 7: really solid, solid growth.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Steve Miller, thank you so much. We appreciate
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: that's Steve Miller he's a chairman of Institute for Supplying Management.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: That's IM with some strong numbers.
• 11:20
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  Speaker 3: Mike Summers is one of them.
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: He's API, American Petroleum Institute President and CEO. Talks to
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: Washington about what to do about energy and Mike your
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: claim to fame. Right.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: The second in this radio studio is.
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: Actually Landman on Paramount because Paul, my co anchor, is
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: watching it and now he loves it and he thinks
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: you knows everything about oil.
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: And gas and he's all over it. So you're right.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: API is one of the sponsors, so perfect day. Good
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: to see him, Mike. What's day one?
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: Great show, and I appreciate being with you today.
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: What's day one for you guys under a president of administration?
• 12:28
  Speaker 8: Well, we've laid out an API five point policy roadmap.
• 12:31
  Speaker 8: You can find it at API dot org of the
• 12:33
  Speaker 8: things that we're asking this president in this Congress to
• 12:35
  Speaker 8: do during the first six months of the administration, but
• 12:38
  Speaker 8: there are some things that they can get done early
• 12:41
  Speaker 8: in the administration, really on day one. So one of
• 12:44
  Speaker 8: those things is lifting the LNG export pause. We're excited
• 12:48
  Speaker 8: that we have a new president that's focused on that
• 12:50
  Speaker 8: and he's committed to lifting it on day one. So
• 12:53
  Speaker 8: that's one thing we think that they can get done
• 12:55
  Speaker 8: very quickly. The second thing that we think they can
• 12:57
  Speaker 8: do is they can authorize a new five year lease
• 13:00
  Speaker 8: plan in the offshore Golf of Mexico. We need a
• 13:03
  Speaker 8: five year releasing plan that prioritizes new leases in the
• 13:06
  Speaker 8: Golf of Mexico, which continues to be a prolific region
• 13:09
  Speaker 8: for the American oil and gas industry. About fourteen percent
• 13:11
  Speaker 8: of American oil comes from the Golf of Mexico, which
• 13:14
  Speaker 8: is why what President Biden did just yesterday in setting
• 13:19
  Speaker 8: aside a new acreage that we will not be able
• 13:22
  Speaker 8: to develop with so concerning and so disappointing.
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: Another big thing that we're focused on.
• 13:26
  Speaker 8: Is repealing the EPA tailpipe mandate, the ev mandate that
• 13:30
  Speaker 8: they put in place early in the Biden administration, and
• 13:33
  Speaker 8: we'll work with the Trump administration to get that repealed
• 13:35
  Speaker 8: and replace the cafe standards that our draconian and US
• 13:39
  Speaker 8: automakers can't meet. So those are three of the key
• 13:41
  Speaker 8: priorities that we want to focus on early in the administration.
• 13:44
  Speaker 8: And then in addition to that, we need to get
• 13:46
  Speaker 8: a new tax bill in place before the end of
• 13:48
  Speaker 8: twenty twenty five. We're prioritizing things like the corporate tax rate,
• 13:53
  Speaker 8: of course, and then really focusing on how we continue
• 13:57
  Speaker 8: to build American geopolitical strength and energy trade throughout the world.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Green energy, How does green energy work with traditional energy?
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure what the preferred term is for oil
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: and gas, but how does green energy work with oil
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: and gas and traditional energy sources.
• 14:13
  Speaker 8: Well, the truth of the matter is is that we
• 14:15
  Speaker 8: know that we're going to need all sorts.
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: Of energy to meet the energy needs of the future.
• 14:19
  Speaker 8: If golden sas is right, and we're going to need
• 14:21
  Speaker 8: ten percent more energy for the next ten years to
• 14:23
  Speaker 8: support data centers and AI growth.
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: We're going to need all sources.
• 14:27
  Speaker 8: Of new energy, which is why it's important that we
• 14:29
  Speaker 8: get a new permitting bill in place that we can
• 14:31
  Speaker 8: build out not just oil and gas pipelines, but new
• 14:34
  Speaker 8: transmission lines for those new energy sources as well. The
• 14:38
  Speaker 8: great thing about natural gas in particular is that it
• 14:40
  Speaker 8: can support these alternative energy sources as well. Because we
• 14:45
  Speaker 8: know that the wind isn't always blowing and the sun
• 14:47
  Speaker 8: isn't always shining, you're going to need something to back
• 14:49
  Speaker 8: that up. And natural gas is almost always the preferred
• 14:53
  Speaker 8: energy of choice when backing up those sources.
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: So we know that we're going to need more energy.
• 14:59
  Speaker 8: We don't just need all of the above, but more
• 15:01
  Speaker 8: of all if we're going to be successful in leading
• 15:04
  Speaker 8: the future.
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: Particularly when it comes to AI.
• 15:07
  Speaker 8: So we want to work with our partners in the
• 15:10
  Speaker 8: other energy system to make sure that we can continue
• 15:13
  Speaker 8: to expand.
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: So Mike also, yeah, I would say a popular talking
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: point for Republicans was that we need to get rid
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: of the Inflation Reduction Act. But if you dig into
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: a lot of the details, a lot of the oil
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: guys and natural gas guys like the Inflation Reduction Act
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: in things like carbon capture credits right forty five Q.
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: New rules on the hydrogen tax credit forty five V
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: were unveiled that people were pretty happy with because it
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: had a broader swath of the energy that you could
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: use to make hydrogen.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: Are you guys happy with those things right now?
• 15:44
  Speaker 8: I actually feel pretty good about our ability to defend
• 15:46
  Speaker 8: the forty five tax credits Q and V are the
• 15:49
  Speaker 8: ones that are most important to us for carbon.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: Capture and hydrogen.
• 15:53
  Speaker 8: We were pleased with the Biden administration rules, though we
• 15:55
  Speaker 8: think they could be improved under President Trump on both
• 15:58
  Speaker 8: ccs and HIGH, so we'll work with the Trump administration
• 16:01
  Speaker 8: to improve those. But there are provisions I think that
• 16:04
  Speaker 8: under the Inflation Reduction Act that are vulnerable, particularly the
• 16:08
  Speaker 8: funds from the Loan Program Office, which has just become
• 16:11
  Speaker 8: a giant slush fund for favored industries under the Biden administration.
• 16:16
  Speaker 8: So I do think the funds that haven't been obligated
• 16:18
  Speaker 8: yet under the Loan Program Office are very vulnerable. As
• 16:23
  Speaker 8: Congress that looks towards towards reconciliation, so that's where I
• 16:26
  Speaker 8: think most of the purpose will be.
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: But some of the money from the Department of Loan
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: Office is going to like companies that produce a nuclear
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: or have natural gas. It's not just like Rando green technology.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: How are you going to distinguish that? Because if you
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: need the loan in order to say, restart a nuclear
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: plan or work into small modular reactors, for example, what
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: do you think about that?
• 16:50
  Speaker 8: Well, I think that's going to be something that Congress
• 16:51
  Speaker 8: is going to have to sort out and the administration
• 16:54
  Speaker 8: is going to have to sort out. I'm pretty sure
• 16:56
  Speaker 8: that at the beginning of the administration what they're going
• 16:58
  Speaker 8: to do is they're going to freeze all new funds
• 17:00
  Speaker 8: coming from the Loan Program Office until they get a
• 17:02
  Speaker 8: better sense as to what to leave in and what
• 17:05
  Speaker 8: to leave out. And that'll be up to the new
• 17:07
  Speaker 8: Energy Secretary, Chris Right And you know, I'm confident that
• 17:10
  Speaker 8: they'll be able to figure out what they should what
• 17:13
  Speaker 8: they should focus on, and the things that they need
• 17:15
  Speaker 8: to leave behind.
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: But that'll be up to the administration.
• 17:19
  Speaker 8: You know, our focus is going to be on advancing
• 17:20
  Speaker 8: a reconciliation bill that supports American energy that means new
• 17:25
  Speaker 8: leases in the offshore, new leases on shore reopening Alaska,
• 17:28
  Speaker 8: which President Biden has taken a particularly focus on in
• 17:32
  Speaker 8: terms of cutting off the amount of oil and.
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: Gas that we can produce in the state of Alaska.
• 17:38
  Speaker 8: So we're confident that we're going to be able to
• 17:40
  Speaker 8: prevail on the administration and the Congress to advance new
• 17:43
  Speaker 8: leasing priorities as they get that big new reconciliation bill.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: On what do we have you heard?
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: What have been I guess maybe any rubblings coming out
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: of this new Trump administration about how aggressive they planned
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: to be as a related to oil and gas.
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: I think they plan to be very aggressive.
• 17:58
  Speaker 8: I mean, as you know, the President has really focused
• 18:00
  Speaker 8: on how do we continue to grow this tremendous American resource.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: We're producing about thirteen.
• 18:06
  Speaker 8: Point four million barrels of oil everying a single day,
• 18:09
  Speaker 8: which is a record. We're producing records amounts of natural gas.
• 18:13
  Speaker 8: But we also see record demand for these products, not
• 18:15
  Speaker 8: just record demand for oil and gas, but also record
• 18:17
  Speaker 8: demand for coal and other sources as well. And that's
• 18:20
  Speaker 8: because we're starting to see this demand continue to increase.
• 18:24
  Speaker 8: This we're in a different era than we were during
• 18:26
  Speaker 8: the first Trump administration, where energy demand was relatively stable
• 18:30
  Speaker 8: during the first Trump administration. Everything's changed in the last
• 18:33
  Speaker 8: eight years where you have new sources of demand, growing
• 18:37
  Speaker 8: data centers of course AI more things.
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: Being plugged into the electric grid.
• 18:41
  Speaker 8: So I think what President Trump understands is that we're
• 18:43
  Speaker 8: going to need a lot of energy going forward if
• 18:46
  Speaker 8: we're going to win the energy security race.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: Hey, Mike, it's always going to catch up. So many
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: more things to talk about. We'll get you back.
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: We'll go through them also, and like really questioning how
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: we're going to get pipelines built, So next time we'll
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: tackle that. Mike Summer's API president and CEO, and I
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: should point out also the sponsor of land Fans Paramount
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: plus well not mine, but the API that feels important
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: to say.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 19:13
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• 19:16
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• 19:20
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• 19:25
  Speaker 5: In the meantime, we're seeing ramped up pressure on Chinese
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: companies and their relationship to the US. There's a growing
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: backlist of those Chinese tech giants, and it's happening pretty
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: quickly and the current as Bloomberg Global Economy Reporter, we
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: got news about ten Cent just in the last twenty
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: four hours. Where do we stand today versus where we
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: stood like six months ago.
• 19:48
  Speaker 9: So it's another day, another series of companies being added
• 19:51
  Speaker 9: to this list. As you mentioned, Alex, it's basically list
• 19:54
  Speaker 9: by the US government. DOT says these Chinese companies are
• 19:57
  Speaker 9: working in collaboration with the Chinese mili and although it
• 20:01
  Speaker 9: doesn't apply sanctions on those companies, it will make it
• 20:04
  Speaker 9: awkward for US companies to do business with them. And
• 20:06
  Speaker 9: as you mentioned, we've had some new editions. Ten Cent
• 20:11
  Speaker 9: probably one of the best known internet companies in China,
• 20:13
  Speaker 9: best known for its apps and it's gaming for example,
• 20:16
  Speaker 9: not known to be in the military civil fusion space,
• 20:19
  Speaker 9: but has been added to the list. Nonetheless than some
• 20:21
  Speaker 9: of the hawks in DC have been calling for it
• 20:23
  Speaker 9: to happen. CATL which makes the batteries for the big
• 20:26
  Speaker 9: EV car makers, including Tesla, that's gone on the list,
• 20:29
  Speaker 9: with potential ramifications for the supply chain story there. There's
• 20:32
  Speaker 9: also a shipping company Costco, and some other big well
• 20:35
  Speaker 9: known Chinese companies as well, And of course the Chinese
• 20:40
  Speaker 9: authorities in Beijing have responded. They say they hope the
• 20:43
  Speaker 9: US will undo this wrongdoing, and of course we know
• 20:46
  Speaker 9: China has options of retaliation of its own. They've been
• 20:48
  Speaker 9: expanding their own their own kind of so called anty
• 20:51
  Speaker 9: lists as well. So it's just another example of the
• 20:53
  Speaker 9: ongoing tensions between both and the tit for tap between
• 20:56
  Speaker 9: both governments as well.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, we all the government undo this snjen Ey twentieth.
• 21:02
  Speaker 9: Well, it's a tricky one because you would assume the
• 21:04
  Speaker 9: incoming Trumpe administration are as hawkish as the Biden administration,
• 21:08
  Speaker 9: if not more holkish. You know, everyone's trying to i't
• 21:11
  Speaker 9: hook each other on China at the moment, Alex, So
• 21:14
  Speaker 9: I don't know whether or not there will be a reversal.
• 21:16
  Speaker 9: Obviously there's a complication there with CAATL being so critical
• 21:20
  Speaker 9: to the Tesla supply chain, so that will be one
• 21:22
  Speaker 9: worth keeping a close one.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: But broadly speaking of though, you'd.
• 21:25
  Speaker 9: Have to say the direction of travel when it comes
• 21:28
  Speaker 9: to export controls or investment restrictions or potentially tariffs on
• 21:33
  Speaker 9: goods made in China coming from China into the US
• 21:36
  Speaker 9: and curbs and doing business and people flowing the like.
• 21:39
  Speaker 9: That's all been going in one direction. So the Biden
• 21:42
  Speaker 9: administration seems to be cementing its own hawkish legacy, putting
• 21:45
  Speaker 9: its own stamp on this before they finish up. And
• 21:47
  Speaker 9: it's kind of hard to imagine too much it is
• 21:49
  Speaker 9: being online by the Trumpet administration.
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: So I guess then the obvious question is who's next?
• 21:53
  Speaker 5: And I don't know if we know that right, Like
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: you mentioned Tencent, like that was kind of a surprise
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: over the last twenty four hours. But sector why, company wise,
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: market cap wise?
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: Who do we think might be next?
• 22:04
  Speaker 9: It is hard to say, Alex because, like you say,
• 22:06
  Speaker 9: we've gone now from you might say maybe obvious companies
• 22:09
  Speaker 9: who you could say are clearly aiding or were the
• 22:12
  Speaker 9: US does month to aid China's technology aspirations. It's CHIP aspirations,
• 22:17
  Speaker 9: it's AI aspirations, companies that aren't necessarily in that space.
• 22:20
  Speaker 9: So certainly it's been broadened. Now that list looks like
• 22:22
  Speaker 9: it's been broadened, So you know, we could go anywhere
• 22:25
  Speaker 9: from here. But the real question is when the Trump
• 22:28
  Speaker 9: administration comes in a couple of weeks time, what will
• 22:30
  Speaker 9: their initial focus be. Will it be on goods trade.
• 22:33
  Speaker 9: Will they go hard with the tariffs which the President
• 22:36
  Speaker 9: elect Trump has obviously spoken about so many times, or
• 22:38
  Speaker 9: will they get off to to an early start also
• 22:40
  Speaker 9: with ongoing investment restrictions, expert controls, restrictions.
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: On technology and the like.
• 22:45
  Speaker 9: And if it's that, then that's where we will see
• 22:47
  Speaker 9: this list coming onder more scrutiny again in terms of
• 22:48
  Speaker 9: where they do go with it.
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: Any response from China in terms of how they retaliate
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: in this particular kind of instance.
• 22:55
  Speaker 9: They had, well, they the firm industry over and I
• 22:58
  Speaker 9: didn't respond to say that. Look, they obviously disagree with this,
• 23:01
  Speaker 9: They want the US to want to do it. They
• 23:02
  Speaker 9: refer to it as wrongdoing. But we know that China
• 23:05
  Speaker 9: does have options through Italiate, they've developed something of an
• 23:08
  Speaker 9: anty list of their own ALEX where they're putting US
• 23:11
  Speaker 9: companies on their list, where they're making it harder to
• 23:13
  Speaker 9: do business with Chinese companies, putting restrictions on the flow
• 23:16
  Speaker 9: of say, critical minerals resources, that kind of thing that
• 23:19
  Speaker 9: US companies might need. So China has options respond where
• 23:23
  Speaker 9: they are in this space. But as also though, there's
• 23:25
  Speaker 9: also been some mixed mood music coming out of Beijing,
• 23:27
  Speaker 9: they've been saying that when it comes to goods trade
• 23:30
  Speaker 9: at least that you know, they're open to listening. There
• 23:33
  Speaker 9: could be some negotiation or deeds to be done and
• 23:35
  Speaker 9: on that side of things. And I think that's why
• 23:37
  Speaker 9: this China US trade story is going to be very
• 23:40
  Speaker 9: much an evolving one as the new new administration gets.
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: Up and running.
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: When you take a look then at how that does evolve.
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: Does China then wind up shipping more stuff to say,
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: other g Seven countries and then it winds up having
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: this weird supply glut elsewhere, and then how that affects
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: trade dynamics within the US.
• 24:01
  Speaker 9: Yeah, the trade anmaks are definitely being up ended at
• 24:04
  Speaker 9: the moment. As you say, you know, even if China
• 24:06
  Speaker 9: comes under tariffs or export controls or restrictions with the US,
• 24:10
  Speaker 9: they either their a final new markets to your point,
• 24:13
  Speaker 9: or they you know, they shift them of that production
• 24:16
  Speaker 9: over to third party countries and then from there they
• 24:18
  Speaker 9: ship the US and kind of scared these controls. That's
• 24:21
  Speaker 9: been an ongoing issue and that's probably one that's going
• 24:23
  Speaker 9: to come under scrutiny. I think when the new administrator
• 24:26
  Speaker 9: comes in and that's partly why some people think universal
• 24:30
  Speaker 9: tariffs are being talked about this time around, in terms
• 24:32
  Speaker 9: of trying to make sure China doesn't come through those loopholes. So,
• 24:36
  Speaker 9: you know, if you think back at the first Triple administration,
• 24:39
  Speaker 9: those tariffs were kind of broad brush. They were continued
• 24:42
  Speaker 9: by by the administration. But there's a feeling that this
• 24:45
  Speaker 9: time we're going to have to be more surgical and
• 24:46
  Speaker 9: make sure that those loopholes are closed.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: All right, and I always good to catch up.
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: Thanks a lot and the current Bloomberg Global Economy reporter
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: joining us there.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: Speaking of eleven o'clock, I.
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: Mean, we'll take bets on whether or not that as
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: actually as eleven we're going to have a president like
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: Trump remarks from our lago in Pombee, Florida, So I'll
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: bring that to you. I'm at around eleven thirty, we'll
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: have Jensen Wang of Nvidia speaking to Ed Ludlow. We
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: will also be updating you on those headlines as well.
• 25:13
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