Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: A Bitcoin Short Squeeze is Loading...The Crypto Trade We are Watching

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Crypto Rundown: A Bitcoin Short Squeeze is Loading...The Crypto Trade We are Watching · CRYPTO 101

0:07
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, everybody.
0:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money and is there a short squeeze Looming for Bitcoin Jane Street is wearing the tin foil hat this week.
0:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Are they holding Bitcoin's price down?
0:22
[SPEAKER_05]: We're going to discuss it.
0:24
[SPEAKER_05]: We're going to let you know what that was all about.
0:25
[SPEAKER_05]: And there is a possible short squeeze happening with micro strategy and Michael Sailor as well.
0:30
[SPEAKER_05]: We have the data, we have the facts, and we have Brendan with us to do a deep dive on all things technical analysis today.
0:38
[SPEAKER_05]: So glad to have Brendan back.
0:39
[SPEAKER_05]: We're going to dive into the charts very, very shortly.
0:42
[SPEAKER_05]: So stick around.
0:43
[SPEAKER_05]: There's a lot to cover here.
0:44
[SPEAKER_05]: So check the timestamps below if there's something specific you want to do.
0:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Sorry, I want to watch, but Brendan welcome back to the run now.
0:50
[SPEAKER_05]: It's good to have you this Friday.
0:51
[SPEAKER_05]: How are you?
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They're happy freaking Friday.
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a volatility here in the crypto market this week.
0:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Going down to like what 62K, almost 64K, back up to almost 70K.
1:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Lots of stuff happening, but you're right.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: There's all this talk about the idea of a short squeeze.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And let me tell you, I actually quite agree with it.
1:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that we are certain to see a squeeze happen.
1:15
[SPEAKER_00]: and the, I guess implications of the repercussions of a squeeze like this could be pretty big to you though.
1:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Lots of people are looking at the crypto market saying, hey, you know, we're probably getting ready to do something big, right?
1:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Now is that going to be to the upside or downside?
1:30
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll talk about that in some of the theories and thoughts that we have.
1:34
[SPEAKER_00]: But yeah, you know, all sorts of big catalysts.
1:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, whether you're talking about banks or the short squeeze or
1:41
[SPEAKER_00]: different theories that are out there.
1:43
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some big stuff happening behind the scenes and our favorite thing over here is to go through all the news, all the technicals, all the fundamentals and review it all and then package it in under an hour for all of you to view and listen to completely for free.
1:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So as Tiva said, you know, if you like it and you like what we do here, all we ask is that you hit the like and subscribe button.
2:04
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2:11
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2:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe you'll leave us a review on there, but check us out on YouTube.
2:15
[SPEAKER_00]: It's where you're going to be able to see all of the visuals, all the charts and articles that we're going to be putting on the screen for you.
2:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So check us out over there because we do all sorts of other market updates and podcasts and tutorials and things of that nature.
2:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Tivo, I mean, let's kick it right off here.
2:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh-huh.
2:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, it's uh, it's Friday and sometimes on Fridays, we'll have a little fun.
2:36
[SPEAKER_05]: I think, uh, I see fits in the chat, grants here.
2:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Deb's here, CJ E's here.
2:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Rumor is CJ E's actually in Florida on the East Coast this time.
2:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Love that.
2:45
[SPEAKER_05]: You also know that CJ likes to pull up a tin foil hat.
2:48
[SPEAKER_05]: everyone's in a while.
2:49
[SPEAKER_05]: That's what I'm feeling like.
2:50
[SPEAKER_05]: This Jain Street thing has gotten a literal, you know, mind of its own.
2:55
[SPEAKER_05]: It's kind of spread through crypto Twitter and a toxic tinfoil haddy way, but there is some truth to it.
3:01
[SPEAKER_05]: It's one of those things where, hey, where there's smoke, maybe there's some fire.
3:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Just to kind of before we dive into the crypto specific rumors that we saw, I pulled this clip.
3:10
[SPEAKER_05]: It's three minutes long.
3:10
[SPEAKER_05]: We're not going to listen to the whole thing, but just to show like, hey, Bloomberg television is even talking about this.
3:15
[SPEAKER_05]: whether it was the crypto fund, the Tera, the Lunofud or the, it was around the India market.
3:22
[SPEAKER_05]: I believe there was a lawsuit out of India towards Jane Streets.
3:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's just tune in and hear what, you know, other people are talking about this to give us a tee up and then we'll dive into the more crypto-specific stuff.
3:33
[SPEAKER_03]: this company, how has the reputation been changing on Wall Street?
3:36
[SPEAKER_03]: So that's what we're starting to see unfold.
3:39
[SPEAKER_03]: This is a firm that has been in the background.
3:42
[SPEAKER_03]: They're growing in prominence.
3:44
[SPEAKER_03]: They're making billions of dollars of revenue in the year.
3:47
[SPEAKER_03]: They doubled that revenue from 2023 to 2024.
3:51
[SPEAKER_03]: But now the way that they're doing that has been thrust into the open.
3:56
[SPEAKER_03]: So you have this probe out in India from the regulators that is releasing
4:02
[SPEAKER_03]: minute by minute hour by hour, they're showing not just the trades that this firm is inputting, but the amount of money that they're making doing it, the profit.
4:11
[SPEAKER_03]: And so you've seen across Wall Street, their competitors, and just folks that are curious and want to kind of analyze how this firm is doing what they do, they're pouring through these documents.
4:22
[SPEAKER_03]: And it's such an unusual time because this is a firm that otherwise can just be again behind the scenes behind a curtain and operate in the way that they have been They've been founded in 2000 so it's not as if this has happened overnight.
4:35
[SPEAKER_03]: They've evolved over time.
4:36
[SPEAKER_03]: What is different here is as you bring up the reputation.
4:41
[SPEAKER_05]: The James Street's reputations under firebrand, and as I pull up the second thing again, we'll dive into the crypto-specific sub in a second, but they seem to be doing something in the Indian markets that the India regulators do not like, looks like there may be banning Jane Street from local markets.
4:56
[SPEAKER_05]: And just a fun fact here, I believe Sam Bankman freed used to work at Jane Street.
5:02
[SPEAKER_05]: So, you know, not.
5:04
[SPEAKER_05]: not independently, not aware of some sketchy people of their past.
5:10
[SPEAKER_05]: But let's pull up the big long tweet.
5:12
[SPEAKER_05]: I found this from Bull Theory, kind of breaking down the Jane Street, $40 billion.
5:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Luna collapse, and then just want to get your thoughts on it, Brendan.
5:20
[SPEAKER_05]: What have you heard?
5:21
[SPEAKER_05]: What have you seen?
5:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I think specifically, you know, the narrative got to the point where it was, oh, this is why Bitcoin's down.
5:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't, I don't think we,
5:30
[SPEAKER_05]: we believe in that but there's a lot of smoke here and there's probably some fire somewhere.
5:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, right now, this is mostly allegations.
5:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And I hope that the truth does come to the spotlight.
5:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Cause I think people deserve an answer and if this was happening, we need to make sure that it doesn't happen again.
5:47
[SPEAKER_00]: But when it comes to the whole Jane Street incident, what people are concerned and a little bit upset about here is the allegation that they had a role in the Taroluna crash.
6:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the idea behind it is that they were purposely manipulating the markets.
6:05
[SPEAKER_00]: to orchestrate this crash and then knowing that they would cause this crash, they were also short and benefiting off of the crash itself and profiting from it.
6:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So not only were they doing market manipulation and caused one of the biggest crashes and blowups in crypto history,
6:21
[SPEAKER_00]: not only did they orchestrate it, but they also profited off of it as well.
6:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that seems to be the idea here is that's one side.
6:31
[SPEAKER_00]: The second side is hey not only did they do this one big blowup event, but there's also the idea that they have been continually manipulating Bitcoin and manipulating price action again for their benefit.
6:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And so that's really where it comes to the spotlight.
6:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where people are upset is, hey, not only did they cause this extremely large mass of blow up, but then tons of people lost money in this kind of collapse.
6:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And they were the ones orchestrating and benefiting off of what seems to be manipulation, but then they've continued to do this with Bitcoin and who knows, maybe even other cryptocurrencies.
7:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And so the allegations here, or allegedly, they were ordered to stop all manipulation.
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: on, you know, what was it two days ago?
7:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we saw that big pump up in Bitcoin's price.
7:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it recovered from 62?
7:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I said 72 at the top of the episode.
7:22
[SPEAKER_00]: But from 62 all the way back up to 70, and everyone's like, oh my goodness, they were ordered to stop the manipulation.
7:28
[SPEAKER_00]: It started pumping.
7:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we're starting to see it just come right back down as it's floating around 65 here.
7:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, that's the high level overview of what's going on.
7:38
[SPEAKER_00]: The thing the note here is,
7:41
[SPEAKER_00]: There, at least, seems to be a little bit of a potential truth to this.
7:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we don't have all of the information, but when you have India doing this and kind of getting on them, it seems to be like something's happening behind the scenes.
7:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, is it exactly what both
7:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure.
8:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, we just don't have all of the data yet.
8:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And what we don't want to come on here and do is blast them and say all these things and just none of it turns out to be true.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: My hope here is that, you know, this lawsuit really could says it's supposed to go to US district court.
8:14
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I want to see the results of this.
8:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And the big question I have is, you know, A.
8:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, what if this is all false, right?
8:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, what happens then?
8:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the other side is what happens if it's, if it's all true?
8:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Because I'm not sure there's a way to make it right to all the people who had lost money or had their gain suppressed, you know, who knows how many times at the benefit of Jane Street?
8:41
[SPEAKER_00]: It's really hard to say, oh, this person was impacted by this much.
8:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to get repaid X amount of money.
8:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say it's near impossible that that is going to happen.
8:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's almost impossible to kind of calculate that in the first place.
8:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Let alone repay the people.
8:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think the biggest thing that we can do here is
9:02
[SPEAKER_00]: create a way where this doesn't happen again.
9:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what most people want to see.
9:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's also why we look at the Clarity Act in the market.
9:11
[SPEAKER_00]: The market structure builds a hole.
9:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It's part of the reason why everybody wants this to get passed is because there's no longer going to be gray lines of how these financial institutions and asset managers and banks.
9:25
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no longer going to be a gray line of how they can operate and what they can and can't do it's going to say hey here are the defined parameters of what is allowed and what you can do.
9:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, I think that's what we should really be paying attention to here, is saying, hey, we want to see what's going to happen as a result of this, but moving forward, we really do want and need the market structure bill and the clarity acted all these things in place because that should give us very clear regulation on how these assets are supposed to be treated and traded.
10:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And if this does happen, and there's groups that are openly breaking this, then they're going to have to go face the courts and
10:11
[SPEAKER_00]: finds and other issues.
10:13
[SPEAKER_00]: My only fear is that, you know, we've seen market manipulations from big asset managers and banks in the past.
10:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's been a lot of them that have done this, you know, I know JP Morgan has gotten sued for it, you know, who knows how many times, and, you know, a lot of them have.
10:27
[SPEAKER_00]: The issue to you, though, is that a lot of the time, they make more than they're being fine.
10:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And so what I mean by that is, imagine they go, and I'm just
10:39
[SPEAKER_00]: But imagine they go and they make $500 million from manipulating whatever it is, market.
10:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And then they get fined $300 million.
10:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Well at the end of the day, they might look at that and say, wow, well, we did this and we got away with it and we had $200 million to run with even after $300 million in fines.
10:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So then they say, okay, well, that's really just to slap in the wrist and we end up profiting at the end of the day.
11:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of the issue that I have with these is that there needs to be more
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[SPEAKER_00]: protection because at the end of the day the people who really pay the price are not the institutions it's really again the retail traders the retail investors so that's where I stand on it that's the whole situation and we should fully we just need more more data and we need to see this go a little bit further but I almost hope it's not the case because of what that would mean
11:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, sadly, it's a tale as old as time, right?
11:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Whether it was, you know, traditional markets versus crypto markets and so on and so forth.
11:38
[SPEAKER_05]: There's always this type of, you know, bad behavior and you could even, you know, and I, on a very simple, dumber level, you know, there's so many different rug pulls and all the different, you know, low-cat meme coins that, you know, we try to steer people clear from.
11:53
[SPEAKER_05]: as well, but um, if there's any, if there's any indictment on how Jane Streets feeling they, they completely wipe their Twitter.
12:01
[SPEAKER_05]: So I thought that was really interesting.
12:04
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's not a good look.
12:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Not at all.
12:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, there's these allegations and people look, are they true?
12:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And their first reaction is wipe all of the evidence.
12:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Like, it's, it's, it's not a good look for them.
12:20
[SPEAKER_05]: No, no, it's not, and I'm sure, you know, if this does go to the courts, the first thing they'll be doing is getting the logs of all the little treats and posts and all that stuff and trying to, you know, see where they're communicating out, you know, out to the public versus where and what they're trading, but one thing that we do know for certain, when it comes to short squeezes, Brendan, is it's the, uh,
12:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Tvo Friday, same side of the boat trade is going to be on MSTR, same side of the boat here.
12:48
[SPEAKER_05]: MSTR becomes the world's most shorted stock, the number one position here.
12:54
[SPEAKER_05]: You can see the list here and it looks like strategy has reclaimed its spot.
13:00
[SPEAKER_05]: It's been there before.
13:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Any thoughts on that?
13:04
[SPEAKER_05]: Obviously this is how short squeezes start.
13:07
[SPEAKER_05]: There's certain companies If you go all the way back to like, you know, the game stop days of, you know, being short versus the float of available shares.
13:15
[SPEAKER_05]: There's certain, you know, I don't know if it's funds, but there's certain managers out there that like this game and they don't necessarily care whether it's Bitcoin or games like GameStop for example, right?
13:27
[SPEAKER_05]: The company wasn't disarray.
13:29
[SPEAKER_05]: on the on the balance sheet, but it just the short to float and available shares.
13:34
[SPEAKER_05]: There's formulas and there's traders out there that look for this stuff.
13:37
[SPEAKER_05]: So this is something that came across my feed and desk and I have the little research into that gets me kind of excited in a way because again, it brings in people that aren't necessarily specific to the crypto markets.
13:49
[SPEAKER_05]: And I wonder if you know the MSTR bulls can rally behind it along with maybe some of these people that
13:55
[SPEAKER_05]: start hunting for some people that that go naked short and and just get to aggressive with it.
14:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, you're right.
14:04
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the way that micro strategy trades or MSTR now strategy trades is that it typically trades at a more volatile
14:14
[SPEAKER_00]: of pairing to Bitcoin, right?
14:16
[SPEAKER_00]: It's usually what it does.
14:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it tracks Bitcoin's price action, but in a more volatile way?
14:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And so with us seeing this 50% retracement on Bitcoin, you've seen a much more hefty retracement on MSTR.
14:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And so you could argue, hey, this thing should have even more shorts built up.
14:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And people have leaned into that idea.
14:38
[SPEAKER_00]: something that I like to talk about is when I like to go short, I like to short the underperforming assets.
14:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to go to a sector.
14:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's just say, hey, I want a short crypto.
14:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to go to the lead performer and say, oh, I'm going to short the best performer.
14:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You're going to go, no, I'm going to short the worst performer of this niche, of this group.
14:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And people look at that MSTR as that option for Bitcoin specifically.
15:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And so what they do is they say, hello, well, I want to short crypto stocks, or I want to short Bitcoin.
15:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they going to go in short Bitcoin?
15:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Or are they going to go short MSTR?
15:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Or are they going to go short Galaxy?
15:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Or are they going to go short something like this?
15:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Which they know has more volatility to the downside because it's been underperforming.
15:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's where you get this.
15:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that you're right.
15:24
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think that a lot of crypto is sitting in the spot where it is probably
15:29
[SPEAKER_00]: oversold, if not getting really close to that point.
15:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And you can see from technical indicators, right?
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: The RSI oversold, MACD, most oversold it's ever been.
15:39
[SPEAKER_00]: The fear and greed index, most sold it's ever been.
15:41
[SPEAKER_00]: For the RSI, it was...
15:43
[SPEAKER_00]: the second lowest it's ever been.
15:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So all these indicators would say that according to them, it is oversold.
15:50
[SPEAKER_00]: The hard thing about oversold though is it's kind of just a made-up term, right?
15:54
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no like, oh, this is oversold, so it has to go up.
15:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just a way that we label things that are extremely,
16:00
[SPEAKER_00]: potentially overextended to the downside.
16:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Or maybe they've seen too much downside without any kind of relief rally.
16:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's what people are looking at here and saying, hey, it's probably been sold off more than it should have without any kind of a significant bounce happening.
16:17
[SPEAKER_00]: and I think the really interesting thing will be is once we probably do get the short squeeze and we do get the bounce, then what happens, right?
16:25
[SPEAKER_00]: That will be, I think, the more important thing to watch out for is to say, hey, we can have a short squeeze and we can rally, but what happens after that?
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we going to be able to go back to the highs or do we just form a significantly lower high and then just resume back to the downside after something like that?
16:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So, I think this is
16:46
[SPEAKER_00]: and then you see charter communications and then core weave which is tack and then you see coinbase which is crypto and then you see western digital and then you see bloom energy which is an energy stock you see pola pola alto which is you know cybersecurity you have just a huge variety up here but you do see a lot of crypto names towards the top which would lead me towards believing
17:13
[SPEAKER_00]: that again, there's probably reaching some sort of oversold point.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we'll find out, I'm sure, but I am leaning into this idea of saying, hey, we could still go lower and we'll look at this on the charts, but I think it's a good look to say, hey, a short squeeze could definitely be happening here from from what you view on just the equity side.
17:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, and just the percent this highlighted column I think is interesting is the short interest as percentage of market cap and you can see, you know, the majority of the sheet 90% of it is, you know, between four and, you know, in the high end eight and then the outlier starts at 10 to 11 12 and micro strategies at 14% of the market cap.
18:02
[SPEAKER_05]: So,
18:03
[SPEAKER_05]: something something to keep an eye on obviously something we've highlighted we'll keep tracking but we're going to move on to Brendan doing a little technical analysis for us so I'll share the give the screen share away to you my friend and if we got a couple people in the chat it's also new names to be scooper plus everybody I mentioned earlier you know we'll give us if anybody wants some tickers toss them in the toss them in the chat and we'll see if we can get to them at the end.
18:29
[SPEAKER_05]: And then if you're enjoying this, give it a thumbs up, like subscribe, obviously, if you're new, hit the logo in the bottom left.
18:35
[SPEAKER_05]: And it's that time of the cycle where Brendan's technical analysis class is open.
18:41
[SPEAKER_05]: So if this is something that you enjoy, if you're going through this, you've been a part of our lives, and you see some of Brendan's technical analysis, you know, if you want that six-week course, where you get to do it with him two times a week live with Brendan and the six-week course to learn all about the technicals and the charts.
18:58
[SPEAKER_05]: everything that he is an expert in.
19:00
[SPEAKER_05]: I threw the link down there.
19:02
[SPEAKER_05]: The cohort is open just this weekend, so check it out if you're interested.
19:05
[SPEAKER_05]: But Brendan, take it away.
19:07
[SPEAKER_05]: And again, if anybody has any tickers, we can get to those at the end.
19:11
[SPEAKER_05]: So toss them in.
19:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, the, the name of the game for Bitcoin is Can we go lower and what is happening next?
19:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, this is the all time high that we put in and we've kind of just moved down, consolidate, move down, consolidate, move down, big consolidation, big move down, and now we're just consolidating again.
19:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, there's a little bit of a difference with a lot of these prior consolidation so you can kind of see move down, consolidate up move down, consolidate up move down and now we're consolidating downwards here now historically when you see a move down followed by upwards consolidation it's called a bear flag which typically means there's continuation to the downside.
19:56
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a little bit different where you're getting Bitcoin bouncing from this area or bouncing from this area and then seeing a little bit of downwards consolidation so Little bit of a change in shift in what's happening and I think because of that we have to start
20:13
[SPEAKER_00]: looking at this slightly different than we have before because it doesn't look like your average bear flag so far.
20:18
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, falling channels are usually associated with both flags.
20:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The only difference here is that you don't have quite a big poll as we would call a bull poll, followed by a bull flag.
20:29
[SPEAKER_00]: This still looks pretty funky.
20:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I was actually really excited to go long crypto here.
20:35
[SPEAKER_00]: as it was trying to break out through the top of this channel.
20:38
[SPEAKER_00]: You saw it trying to get through the top of this channel above that 20-day moving average.
20:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I was waiting for the candle close to happen and we didn't get it.
20:46
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a big let down moment for me just a little bit earlier this week.
20:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Because
20:51
[SPEAKER_00]: If we could have closed above this 20-day moving average, then I would have actually been really open to longs.
20:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I would have been open towards the idea of Bitcoin pushing back to $80 to $85,000.
21:03
[SPEAKER_00]: The difference here is that we came all the way back down and closed right at if not beneath the 20-day moving average.
21:10
[SPEAKER_00]: then the next day we rejected and then again today we're rejecting again.
21:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So multiple days of rejecting this and we've seen that for a while now on Bitcoin, right?
21:19
[SPEAKER_00]: We've kind of come up to this area and rejected and then come up and rejected and come up and rejected again and again and again.
21:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're doing it once again over in here.
21:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm looking at this and saying, hey, it's still not a good sign that we continue to reject the 20-day moving average, which is the smallest and weakest of the ones that I like to use between the 20, the 50, and the 200-day moving averages.
21:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm looking at this seeing the rejection and as it's coming back down in here, just acknowledging that, you would have really liked to see a breakout here, but you have the failed breakout.
21:55
[SPEAKER_00]: as it's bleeding back down.
21:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think we're in limbo until we really do break out from this resistance line.
22:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Start trading back above this two or excuse me, the 20 day moving average.
22:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'd really like to see as conquer 70,000 and close up there.
22:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think it puts us in a good spot.
22:13
[SPEAKER_00]: until that happens, you know, we are in a bit of a downtrend.
22:17
[SPEAKER_00]: As I did say, we are seeing a bit of structural differences where we're seeing kind of a channel down of consolidation as opposed to a spike up in consolidation followed by more downside.
22:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, things are changing here.
22:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like something is certainly happening, but
22:36
[SPEAKER_00]: It's too early to probably say, you know, oh, is this the bottom?
22:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Is it, you know, a full-on reversal moment?
22:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I think it's too early to say.
22:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, something's different, something is changing, but you still have the failed breakout, and you still have an overall downtrend as we can see.
22:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, someone hesitant, I would still say the idea of new lows is a real possibility.
22:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You're seeing a lot of signs, and we've talked about this quite a bit, that is saying, hey, historically speaking, you know, we're getting to the point
23:06
[SPEAKER_00]: But that doesn't mean that it has to be enraided this moment just that we could be entering into that stage where it's saying, hey, you know, we need to really be on the eye or the lookout for a reversal.
23:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And I actually do believe in that.
23:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that we're entering into the stage where I think people can start looking and saying, hey, it's probably time to start looking for the reversal.
23:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe that happens in a few weeks, maybe it's a few months away.
23:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think we now need to start really be looking at it and seeing Bitcoin prepare the early stages of that.
23:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So, again, that could mean lower price action still, but I am very much in that camp of saying, hey, I want to actually be looking at some long-term opportunity here, and really just evaluating the market from a long perspective, even if we do have a deeper move lower, which is, again, something on the table.
23:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Across the board though, you know, everything kind of moving lower here.
23:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, Ethereum filled the breakout of the 20 Solana filled the breakout of the 20, you know, XRP, same story, BNB, same story.
24:04
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of the large caps here, something that we saw a little bit earlier in the week on this big move to the upside is that altcoins were rallying quite well.
24:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You saw a lot of altcoins rally, you know, 10, 20, 30% to the upside off of some of these moves,
24:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I still think a standout is one that we've had on the pod here recently.
24:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, you know what we bring this up, I'm not just trying to shill it.
24:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually have no exposure to it, so I feel like I'm allowed to kind of shill it a little bit, because I have zero exposure to myself, but it's can't time.
24:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Tivo, you did a great job, you got canton on the pod, and you got there, one of the big backers of them, big treasury company called Derimune.
24:46
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a big supporter of Canton.
24:48
[SPEAKER_00]: You got both of them on the pod, like what, like a month or two ago, at least.
24:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And this thing's been crushing it, crushing it.
24:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it hit all time highs, not too long ago.
24:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Been contesting them.
25:00
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's why everything else continues to fall.
25:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is one of the few ones that kind of bounced off the 50.
25:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It bounced off the 50, got back above the 200.
25:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's holding value decently well.
25:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So shout out to producer T-Bow.
25:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And, Steve, I think you're muted for us.
25:23
[SPEAKER_05]: I see.
25:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Credit goes back to the team as well, because that stuff that has been in the newsletter, it's been in the community, you know, you, Bryce, and the team are always kind of asking me, like, hey, can you find somebody from this?
25:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Can you find somebody from that?
25:36
[SPEAKER_05]: And that was, you know, if you're inside the community, you've got kind of tipped off on Kent network through the newsletter.
25:43
[SPEAKER_05]: So if people are interested in that, you know, there's a dollar trial down below as well.
25:47
[SPEAKER_05]: And then obviously if you listen to just the pot, you had a chance to get it a couple of weeks ago as well Probably one of the best performing cryptos over that time that and punch the monkey which we also called on this podcast as well We're on fire honestly
26:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I was going to say one more thing.
26:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, and a little sneak preview of just some heavy hitters on the podcast coming up, too.
26:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Can't network is officially available on Robinhood, I believe, as of yesterday.
26:17
[SPEAKER_05]: And then we have a little Robinhood news at the end of the show to tee up us, me, and you interviewing Johann Krabot next week.
26:25
[SPEAKER_05]: So hopefully that doesn't get canceled obviously plans can change, but as of now, we have Robin Hood on the schedule for next week as well.
26:32
[SPEAKER_05]: So, you know, you see this, if you're a true crypto native, true crypto person, you want to build.
26:40
[SPEAKER_05]: And the best projects are building no matter what the price action.
26:42
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that's the one one podcast and crypto nation team follow that better than anybody where we just, you know, hey, we're continuing to build.
26:48
[SPEAKER_05]: We continue to bring on the best guests.
26:50
[SPEAKER_05]: We continue to find winners, can't on now, or punch the monkey, we're continuing to interview top people in the space.
26:55
[SPEAKER_05]: This is what we do.
26:56
[SPEAKER_05]: So worth a thumbs up and worth a subscription to support the pod if I was a listener.
27:03
[SPEAKER_05]: We appreciate everybody doing it.
27:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Could you pull up, I just want to show some love to the people there in the chat.
27:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Both the charts fit.
27:09
[SPEAKER_05]: He's here all the time when he can be.
27:10
[SPEAKER_05]: He wants to take a look at AVAC specifically.
27:13
[SPEAKER_05]: And then our friend, hub, I don't want to pronounce the name,
27:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Abish asked for a BMNR, which obviously is related to ETH, but we do mention it on the pot a lot.
27:26
[SPEAKER_05]: So let's do those two and then we'll move on.
27:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, I think Avax is in a tough spot, man.
27:31
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, they're not one that I'm currently looking at personally.
27:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that there's some other altcoins there that have just been performing and doing better.
27:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm really not looking at AVACs at the moment.
27:45
[SPEAKER_00]: They were one that I was looking at, probably about a year, two years ago, but here I even have a old risk for a short chart, we're at a nice hard stop with this.
27:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And I used to trade it, you know, used to own it, but I've exited out of my entire position.
28:00
[SPEAKER_00]: You can kind of just look at the past several years of performance of just consistent lower highs since the last cycle, right?
28:07
[SPEAKER_00]: We kind of peaked and ever since then,
28:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Lower high, come down, lower high, come down, lower high.
28:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, is this thing probably preparing for some sort of short squeeze?
28:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it'll probably have one.
28:21
[SPEAKER_00]: My only thought is that you'll probably just see another kind of move up.
28:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Lower high, move up, lower high, move up, lower high, move up, lower high.
28:28
[SPEAKER_00]: You can probably have a move up here.
28:30
[SPEAKER_00]: But my only fear is that it could very well just be another lower high into more down side.
28:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, I'm not saying that this has no upside, but it has a pretty clear trend over the last four years, four or five years, of just every rally being lower than the prior one.
28:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And you see a lot of this since 2021 and 2022.
28:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would be looking at that from AVACs.
28:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, you know, even from its current price, that could still mean, you know, hey, maybe this thing rally is 100, 200%.
28:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I would still be just cautious that we know that it has this history of lower highs so my fear would be you just see more of the same with this so you know again not like a dead project by any means not like a horrible one but just in terms of price performance that is something I would want to watch out for because the trend is is very clear there.
29:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would want to temper expectations, you know, for someone coming out to you and saying, hey, you know, this thing could 10x or 20x, I'd be much more hesitant of that and say, you know, the trend has been down for about four to five years.
29:34
[SPEAKER_00]: And on a conservative side, I think you'd have to look at, you know, a lower highs in real possibility.
29:43
[SPEAKER_00]: What else we got?
29:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, it's a bit my last one and then we'll move on.
29:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I actually, you know, I'm torn on a bit one.
29:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I like Tom Lee, I like Ethereum, um, do you like Mr. Beasts?
29:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, some of the stuff they do confuses me a little bit.
30:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And I do wish that they would be more aggressive about buying a Ethereum and getting their hands on more Ethereum at these prices.
30:09
[SPEAKER_00]: So part of me is kind of concerned with that.
30:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, they could have put, they, what was that?
30:16
[SPEAKER_00]: They did 500 million in the Mr.
30:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Beast or something.
30:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, yeah, I got a piece of the Beast Industries.
30:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they got a piece of Beast Industries, which I think is a, a super great idea for return on investment.
30:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but
30:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a strange look to see Ethereum down so much, and then having $500 million of capital to spend, and as an Ethereum treasury, they're going to say, hey, we're actually not going to put this money in Ethereum.
30:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's a little bit of a bad look to see it fall so much, and then willingly put their money into other places.
30:51
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little bit of a bad book, and I like BMR, BMR, I like Tom Lee, I actually own some shares of this myself.
31:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't have crazy exposure, but I have some to it.
31:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that the way that you can look at this is I view it as almost like a leveraged version of Ethereum.
31:09
[SPEAKER_00]: If Ethereum's coming down, this is going to see more volatility to the downside.
31:14
[SPEAKER_00]: If Ethereum is rallying up, you're going to see more volatility to the upside.
31:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this thing is going to get peppered.
31:24
[SPEAKER_00]: The moment that the market reverses and starts heading back to the upside, you're probably going to see this thing absolutely take off.
31:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And you saw that just the other day, when Ethereum rallied with Bitcoin on that change street news, B.M.
31:37
[SPEAKER_00]: and R rallied almost 20% to the upside in two days, whereas Ethereum during the same time frame rallied from top to bottom, you know,
31:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Actually, almost the same.
31:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So maybe that's not a great analogy.
31:49
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a theory.
31:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm rallied about 18% as well off of that same two day rally.
31:54
[SPEAKER_00]: So
31:55
[SPEAKER_05]: I agree with you, Brendan.
31:57
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that's a that's a one.
31:59
[SPEAKER_05]: I want to put a pen in and save for the next rally.
32:03
[SPEAKER_05]: I totally agree with you.
32:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm just so people understand because they do come here for information.
32:07
[SPEAKER_05]: So bit mine.
32:08
[SPEAKER_05]: I just looked it up.
32:09
[SPEAKER_05]: The bit mine moon shots.
32:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Like you said, it's like, hey, it's not necessarily a true treasure because they're doing some different things with the money.
32:16
[SPEAKER_05]: It's 200 million and beast industries.
32:20
[SPEAKER_05]: It was.
32:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I see eight co slash auto slash world coin, they did $20 million in world coin and then orbs and Dan Ises for those who like to watch the business news, Dan Ises always runs around with all the fun, different color jackets, huge tech investor for a man, I affirm he works for slipping me off the top of my head.
32:45
[SPEAKER_05]: But he used the chairman of Orbs, and so they did 25 million into Orbs.
32:51
[SPEAKER_05]: So they're sprinkling some moon shots going for stuff that they believe are 10 acts are probably bust.
32:57
[SPEAKER_05]: So they're sprinkling some money there.
32:59
[SPEAKER_05]: They're aiming for 5% of Ethereum, and I totally agree with you again, not personal financial advice for anybody.
33:05
[SPEAKER_05]: But it's going to get peppered on the downside worse, and then there's going to be a time when if the bull market turns when it comes back that,
33:13
[SPEAKER_05]: I would I would say bit mine is going to have a moment of book and the reason is I don't think it is anything to do with the treasury part of it or investing part of I think it's kind of what we talked about for some of these you know stocks that that were flying so high like the you know the stable coin IPOs and the robin hoods of the world that we called
33:34
[SPEAKER_05]: it's it's there's gonna be people that just don't have the ability to go buy a theorem and and like it's not in their mandate and they can go buy these stocks for whatever their mandate holds and then you just have that kind of rush to get into some of these and so I think it's worth watching.
33:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Same thing that strategy used to do, you know, the cycle before the Bitcoin, right?
33:55
[SPEAKER_05]: It was, you know, we can't get any exposure to Bitcoin itself.
33:58
[SPEAKER_05]: So we'll buy strategy and then, you know, the NAV-1-2-1 for the Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
34:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Now that's come back in.
34:04
[SPEAKER_05]: So, uh, something to watch and I think it's going to be fun.
34:07
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it'll be fun.
34:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, Tom Lee's definitely took his medicine.
34:11
[SPEAKER_05]: We had an episode where he went on TV and, you know, he had to do the rounds.
34:15
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, take it, take it on the chin.
34:17
[SPEAKER_05]: It would be fun to see him have a victory lap once again when the market turns around, I think.
34:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I just saw a, I think it's lavish.
34:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Does Tom Lee knows what Tom Lee knows?
34:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, let's transition out of the charts with let's go to big banks.
34:37
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, again, it's the narrative driven, you know, crypto market where it's hey the fundamentals of all the adoption.
34:45
[SPEAKER_05]: is just nonstop what we would think is bullish and the price action hasn't followed and that continues.
34:50
[SPEAKER_05]: I got two clips here.
34:51
[SPEAKER_05]: They are a little long.
34:53
[SPEAKER_05]: The first one I'll do is city.
34:55
[SPEAKER_05]: So city bank wants to make what they're quote was they want to make Bitcoin bankable.
35:00
[SPEAKER_05]: So let's listen to city for a minute and then we'll transition to the next one.
35:03
[SPEAKER_04]: So yes, as you move into the world of 24 seven assets like Bitcoin, it definitely means it's 24 seven
35:15
[SPEAKER_04]: and while all our systems and processes are also being uplifted into 24-7 support, like the absolutely need that.
35:24
[SPEAKER_04]: In some sense, we'll back to the world of sitting in our streets.
35:28
[SPEAKER_04]: So this is the one big idea to make Bitcoin bankable.
35:32
[SPEAKER_04]: Later this year, Siree will be launching our infrastructure at
35:38
[SPEAKER_04]: integrates before any of the traditional finance.
35:41
[SPEAKER_04]: You're going to start with core, custody, and safety capabilities.
35:45
[SPEAKER_04]: Institutional grade came out as soon as wallet infrastructure.
35:49
[SPEAKER_04]: What does it actually mean to make it coin-backable?
35:52
[SPEAKER_05]: So the big quote there's cities working to make a Bitcoin bankable and then I can scroll over to this one.
35:58
[SPEAKER_05]: We have Morgan Stanley on stage talking about firms, how Morgan Stanley is offering to you know planned offer Bitcoin trading lending yield and custody.
36:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So listen to Morgan Stanley partnership.
36:11
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think later on.
36:12
[SPEAKER_02]: at some point in time in the next year you're actually going to build out a native custody and extension solution which I'm pretty excited about.
36:19
[SPEAKER_02]: You'll tend to be the first major thing to offer that.
36:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Why did why is that piece of importance?
36:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And what do you think about?
36:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Like how does that distribute to people?
36:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's a natural, we really need to build this out internally.
36:31
[SPEAKER_01]: We can't just primarily rent the technology to do this.
36:35
[SPEAKER_01]: People expect Morgan Stanley, they trust our brand to be no fail.
36:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And when you sit in that position, you have a significant responsibility to your clients to make sure that you're delivering that in any level of technology.
36:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that one of the things that we want to do is it's a totally different environment to know that you are questioning your assets, your legal custody with Morgan
36:55
[SPEAKER_01]: There's always those that are going to want to sell to custody, that's a natural part of the space, especially in the Bitcoin space.
37:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for some of you in the room that may not know my background prior to being in the digital asset strategy space, I ran our emerging market investing business for the last 13 years.
37:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And I've been.
37:12
[SPEAKER_05]: So I'm pausing it there because I think it's interesting that she compares her experience to going into digital assets from the emerging markets, emerging markets, or up and coming, you know, what's new, where's the puck going type of action?
37:23
[SPEAKER_05]: And so that's, I think it's, when you have city, micro strategy, and then I'm sorry, Morgan Stanley, and then this last slide before I hand it off to you, Brendan, is just like the summary of this is what we've talked about over the last, you know, couple months on the podcast
37:40
[SPEAKER_05]: these people are building and i think it's always important to note like a we're not saying you need to go open up a golden sacks you know jpg morgan wells fargo account and move your crypto there you know you always have the right to self-costion that's the beauty of this thing but the these are the people these are the the companies
37:56
[SPEAKER_05]: that have all the capital that truly like you know kind of run the world and they're building infrastructure for this stuff and she said the Morgan Stanley lady said the most important things like we can't continue to rent this we have to build our own and why well if you didn't if you thought it was going away and this was just a fad you would rent until it's over and then you get rid of it right
38:17
[SPEAKER_05]: They want to build, they want to build the infrastructure, they want to build it in house.
38:21
[SPEAKER_05]: And so it's hard not to sit here and be like, all right, all these companies that have, you know, basically run the modern world for the last 50 plus years is building in this space.
38:32
[SPEAKER_05]: I feel like I'm in the right spot even though maybe the price action recently hasn't gone my way.
38:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I do think it's telling of their long-term stance.
38:41
[SPEAKER_00]: The idea is if you wanna do anything for short-term, you're right.
38:44
[SPEAKER_00]: If you wanna do anything for long-term, you buy.
38:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And that just backs it up.
38:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is a good graphic, Tiva.
38:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it shows Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, city, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan.
38:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, there's more than just these, but I was like the big sex.
39:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you scroll down, it actually gives you a little bit of a breakdown of what
39:06
[SPEAKER_00]: each one of these is doing at a very high level at a very basic level, but you can scroll down and you can see, oh, this is what cities doing and this is what Morgan Stanley is doing and this is what all the different ones are are working on over there.
39:21
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, I think you got to be excited one in doubt, zoom out, right?
39:26
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the saying that we haven't said in a while over here, but I think it's an appropriate time to go back and say, hey, you know, where are we?
39:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we're out of big dip, all the stuff's happening.
39:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I've been a routine sayer of, I think that the
39:39
[SPEAKER_00]: technicals or somewhat disconnected from the fundamentals.
39:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I think due to some of the stuff that we've seen, I think crypto should have a retracement.
39:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Should have had as large of a one that we've seen, probably not, and I think that that's where the disconnection comes.
39:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it was right the cell of some, but I don't think it's been right to see the, this kind of extent to the downside, especially outside of Bitcoin, right?
40:01
[SPEAKER_00]: You get outside of Bitcoin in the alt, and that's what's really been hit.
40:08
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll have to see, right?
40:09
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll have to see, but I think that overall crypto, as an entire industry, has probably been hit harder than it should have been, which creates opportunity.
40:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep, couldn't agree more.
40:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's see, moving on to the read the room of the day.
40:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Vitalik, read the room, bro.
40:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Vitalik selling $4,325,
40:37
[SPEAKER_05]: so that that's that's basically just under 2% of his holdings.
40:41
[SPEAKER_05]: I did the math for everybody so you don't have to.
40:43
[SPEAKER_05]: It comes out to the sold 2% of his Ethereum bags for 8 million.
40:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I just I think this this show is all about bringing the news and I think this is something that, you know, I think the people should know about.
40:55
[SPEAKER_05]: You don't love to see it, but also when it's that little like the 2% mark, you know, raising a little capital to go probably by this, maybe there's always that funny meme that Vitalik has a new girlfriend or is dating somebody so he's going out on dates, you know, there's nothing wrong with getting a little cash, especially when it's that low of percentage of your holdings, but man read the room, huh?
41:18
[SPEAKER_00]: This tweet had me cracking.
41:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I love this tweet, Tiva.
41:21
[SPEAKER_00]: This is go to it.
41:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw this and I was cracking up, but you're right.
41:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean read the room.
41:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll never understand why these different people or groups do this.
41:33
[SPEAKER_00]: We were talking about one just a few weeks ago and it was like read the room.
41:36
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, oh, all this bad stuff's happening.
41:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I'm going to sell shares.
41:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, all this bad stuff's happening.
41:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to sell eat.
41:42
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a good look to kind of see this stuff.
41:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It would be like, oh, there's a lot of bad news about the company that you're invested that you work for in your invested in and you're the executive and you're selling massive amounts of shares.
41:57
[SPEAKER_00]: It'd be like, not a good look.
41:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Read the room, bro.
42:00
[SPEAKER_00]: That is the same thing, right?
42:01
[SPEAKER_00]: He's the founder of Ethereum and Ethereum's not doing great.
42:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's like, all right, I almost start cashing out for whatever reason.
42:09
[SPEAKER_00]: it just goes back and that's the frustrating thing here is that you look at a lot of the builders and most of them aren't doing this but it gives everyone a bad look because of the platform that he's on and it's always the people that are on like the biggest platforms.
42:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Not always, but you know what I mean, it's just I get a little frustrated, but you have people who do have a massive platform and then everyone looks up at them and says, well, you know, they're doing this, even though probably 99% of other crypto founders aren't selling off millions of dollars worth of Ethereum or their native tokens, you have, you know, Vitalik, which is, which again goes back to the point to you, though, read the room.
42:48
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a time in place.
42:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, in the counterpoint, the counterpoint is this is it's fun to read the room and again about a high percentage.
42:56
[SPEAKER_05]: The counterpoint is if we're ripping and we're at all time highs and then the talent starts unloading, everybody's going to run to the eggs, it's with them too.
43:04
[SPEAKER_05]: So, you know, if you're in a price discovery mode, you could snuff out that fire real quick with, you know, by talent or your top holder starts liquidating funds, you know.
43:15
[SPEAKER_05]: uh... you see that all the time in stocks we were you know who we were going on the other day was uh... coinbase prime arms rung files sell selling shares and we're just like to do your running around dc yes future and you're doing all these press hits and you know coin bases the future cryptos the future and you're selling your shares it's like you know obviously still has a ton
43:37
[SPEAKER_05]: But it's the same concept and then but it would go the other way to like I think let's pull Robinhood for example I think like Vlad filed and I think he timed it pretty well I think it was like over the summer Vlad filed to sell some shares, you know, in the hundreds and
43:53
[SPEAKER_05]: you know again it was a small it's always a small percentage because you can't you know dump your whole shares on everybody there's especially in the stock market there's rules of filing that type of stuff and usually you have to file it I think months like a quarter or so in advance right
44:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that makes sense, though, like to me that's fair.
44:12
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, what did their stock rally from 30 to 130 bucks or something crazy?
44:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's like up there, bruh, shattering records.
44:21
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's like, okay, I'm gonna take some profits for the fruits of my labor.
44:25
[SPEAKER_00]: This just feels like the opposite.
44:26
[SPEAKER_00]: where, you know, hey, the asset just appreciated a couple hundred percent, I'm going to pay myself back.
44:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think everyone would agree and say, hey, by all means, dude, pay yourself some great work.
44:37
[SPEAKER_00]: We're all profiting.
44:38
[SPEAKER_00]: The difference here is that with like Brian Armstrong and the Dalek, it's a little bit more frustrating, right?
44:44
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little bit more frustrating for the retail holder looking from the outside in saying, oh, you're talking all this big game.
44:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You're doing all these other things.
44:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you're selling off a bunch of shares.
44:56
[SPEAKER_00]: especially when it's low and it just gets a little bit more for a while.
45:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, let's not pile on too much vital, like a friend of the show, of course.
45:05
[SPEAKER_05]: He's welcome on any time.
45:07
[SPEAKER_05]: And he's still building.
45:07
[SPEAKER_05]: This is what's exciting.
45:08
[SPEAKER_05]: I think about the Ethereum community, as you don't want to see himself, but you do love when he's involved.
45:13
[SPEAKER_05]: You do love when he's talking about the road map.
45:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And kind of,
45:17
[SPEAKER_05]: in a way leading the charge, at least from the high profile projects of quantum resistance, right?
45:23
[SPEAKER_05]: It's been a lot of talking their road map with a lot of other things too.
45:27
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, this is a this is a thought out tweet along with a link to you know, if you want to go to the website, but it was there anything that
45:34
[SPEAKER_05]: the quantum resistance with the number one thing for me because again as the social media guy it's all I've seen in this downturn along with the software trade that we've talked about as well.
45:43
[SPEAKER_05]: It's all been around AI, quantum, and eth is starting to build into the roadmap.
45:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Is anything else that stuck out to you?
45:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
45:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
45:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I would double down and just say you're right.
45:54
[SPEAKER_00]: You're like obviously I'm not happy with like the whole selling at this time part, but I agree with him
46:02
[SPEAKER_00]: the state of Ethereum, MainNet, and Layer 2s.
46:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with almost all of that.
46:07
[SPEAKER_00]: This as well, I think it's great.
46:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I think he knows what he's doing.
46:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And he knows what he's talking about.
46:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm a huge supporter of this as well.
46:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The quantum stuff needs to be done for peace of mind.
46:21
[SPEAKER_00]: People want to see this and he's doing exactly what needs to be done.
46:24
[SPEAKER_00]: He's
46:25
[SPEAKER_00]: also saying, hey, let's look at some privacy features and data availability and other things.
46:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this is, I think what people really want, right?
46:32
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what cantons kind of been up to, working with different forms of privacy and it's been pretty effective.
46:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, I think right move at the right time here from him.
46:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's largely what the whole direction of the road map is.
46:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I support the idea of
46:49
[SPEAKER_00]: looking at how Ethereum could be maybe slightly restructured between the L1s and L2s.
46:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with the quantum stuff.
46:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I agree with some of the privacy stuff.
46:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I think I literally don't think I would disagree with almost anything that he's kind of put forth lately.
47:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is another step of what I would view to be the right direction, because people want peace of mind when it comes to quantum, right?
47:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Everyone's thought right now is O.A.I.
47:14
[SPEAKER_00]: is going to accelerate us towards quantum faster, and I think the faster that you can give people peace of mind about that, the better.
47:22
[SPEAKER_05]: couldn't agree more and you love to have him kind of in the mix and you know as a leader as a thought leader number one but just kind of give me the road map to know where the team and the foundation looks to go I thought this was big news I this came out and people talked about it for about a minute like one cup of coffee they had a cup of coffee they talked about how Mark Zuckerberg and met our planning a stable point come back
47:48
[SPEAKER_05]: And then it just kind of fell away.
47:49
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, they were talking about payments across Facebook, Instagram, and people don't realize how many people use WhatsApp around the world.
47:56
[SPEAKER_05]: For us living in the States, obviously, there's some people especially in business that use WhatsApp, telegram, et cetera.
48:02
[SPEAKER_05]: But around the world, WhatsApp is like, I think one of the number one apps in the world, especially for communication.
48:09
[SPEAKER_05]: And the meta team looks like they're coming back, stablecoins, building the rails.
48:13
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's one of those things that,
48:17
[SPEAKER_05]: I guess one of my trying to say it's one of those things that if implemented automatically adopts a large number of people It's what we've talked about for years on this on this channel of you know the true crypto adoption is going to be when people don't even realize that they're using it Crypto rails without understanding and I think this is the perfect example of that and this this popped up And it was talked about for literally a cup of coffee and then faded away any any thoughts on on meta little stable coin or road map
48:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they have a better shot of getting this approved after the market structure bill passes after the Clarity Act, too.
48:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Then they did before before the whole Libra thing was shot down fairly fast.
49:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I think now they have a much better chance at it.
49:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And this just goes back to the idea of like everyone wants to be in on stable coins, you know, banks, tech companies, social media, everybody wants to get into the stable coin game.
49:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And to me, Tivo, what this does is this backs the idea.
49:26
[SPEAKER_00]: of the floodgates are holding back in astronomical amount of liquidity and the moment that we start getting that legislation passed and all those regulations sorted out, that's when the floodgates begin to open up a little bit here.
49:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that you can start seeing, again, just unfathomable amounts of capital start pouring into this and it probably start small as the gates open and then as they get bigger and bigger and time goes on,
49:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It just unlocks so much potential liquidity, which ultimately I think benefits the very platforms that are either running these stablecoins, that kind of infrastructure, or the underlying infrastructure that is probably Ethereum or Solana, or wherever these stablecoins are built on top of this well.
50:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, just back to the idea that there's a lot of capital liquidity that's trying to get into these, they're just waiting for approval.
50:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
50:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep, and it's it's just a grab for liquidity across the board in any industry and that's what our next two quick hitters are about coin base rolling out 24 five that's 24 seven five days a week stock trading zero commission one unified portfolio for stocks and crypto.
50:41
[SPEAKER_05]: cool news i mean it's it's kind of what Robinhood's been doing for a while right now there's so it's it's i don't think it says like breaking news and and definitely not you know leading the frontier of the space but was definitely something that they needed to put on you know their their program and their platform to to kind of compete with others
51:01
[SPEAKER_05]: So it'll be interesting to see the numbers there like their next when this launches RDA is open now available to US traders.
51:09
[SPEAKER_05]: So it'll be interesting to see the volume on this.
51:12
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it will have a lot to do with how the stock price moves in the next couple quarters for sure.
51:18
[SPEAKER_05]: And not to be all done, but Cracken rolling out 24-7.
51:21
[SPEAKER_05]: It's 24 hours a day, seven days a week, perpetual trading for tokenized US stocks.
51:27
[SPEAKER_05]: So a little bit different with Perps, and tokenized, and all that, but Cracken moving.
51:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Obviously, our sponsor, Gemini, is moving the ball as well doing some fun things.
51:36
[SPEAKER_05]: So any thoughts on this?
51:40
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's, you know, for me, I think it's worth mentioning, as we are on the show, I don't think it's really meaningful in any which way because we're the crypto industry, we want people to come to us and this is opening up the gates to the stocks, stocks and all that stuff, which is good because we believe in diversified portfolios, but we already have our accounts set up in our diversified and our own different ways.
52:02
[SPEAKER_05]: So, doesn't really move the needle for me.
52:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it's just showing a tokenization.
52:08
[SPEAKER_00]: It's being used right now.
52:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's mainly crypto-native companies that are saying, hey, let's tokenize stocks and other things.
52:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's the first step in the direction as you have the crypto-native companies do it first.
52:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you start having other financial players do it and then you have everyone do it afterwards.
52:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's probably how...
52:26
[SPEAKER_00]: the direction will go, how the overall flow will look.
52:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, it's a step in the right direction.
52:34
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Robin Hood, who we're going to have them on the pod next week here, and probably get published a little bit after that.
52:41
[SPEAKER_00]: But they were kind of the ones to say, hey, you should be able to trade everything from one spot, and I think it's setting the standard for the next week.
52:48
[SPEAKER_00]: other places to say hey we need in order to keep up we have to start allowing everything to be traded from one spot as well and that's really made possible through tokenization.
53:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah and then you put this into a transition as smoothly we'll just jump to this of you know financial markets are moving on chain.
53:07
[SPEAKER_05]: This is from Bitwise I mean you can just see the hockey stick of you know RWA assets coming on chain and it's it's not slowing down anytime soon.
53:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and it's a lot.
53:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you've US treasuries, commodities, institutional, turnative funds, private credit, non-US government debt, you have other things.
53:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a little like breakdown at the very top, which just says, hey, here's a couple of the ways that it's happening from BlackRock, Apollo, JP Morgan, Fidelity, the list goes on.
53:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, you know, the trend is clear, right?
53:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Going back, the trend is your friend.
53:41
[SPEAKER_00]: this trend is the most clear.
53:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we could ever possibly make a chart.
53:45
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just absolutely parabolic and up into the right.
53:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
53:51
[SPEAKER_05]: The dopsons here and just a little teaser from friend of the show, Johan Kurohach from Robin Hood is coming on next week.
53:58
[SPEAKER_05]: Something that we're going to talk about.
53:59
[SPEAKER_05]: A little teaser is their own test net.
54:02
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, this is the on Robin Hood, you know,
54:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, tokenization on Robinhood, it's it's something that's going to spread throughout, you know, throughout the industry, super, super fast.
54:16
[SPEAKER_05]: So we mentioned, you know, a bunch of different companies that you all know doing this, and there's a ton that you aren't aware of doing it, and this is where all the assets are going.
54:26
[SPEAKER_05]: So we're trying to find, you know, the best projects to try to get the best exposure we can, and that's that's why you tune into the show, because that's what we try and do and bring you every week.
54:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
54:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Spot on, then.
54:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Many final thoughts Brendan on this Friday before we wrap up.
54:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I would just say, I think everyone should be paying a bit of extra attention to the crypto market, given where it's at right now.
54:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that we're approaching a pretty important point.
54:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And you kind of have the Terry U out phase, which is the big move down, and then you have the where you out phase, which typically happens around the bottom.
55:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's enough to kind of exhaust you, probably make you frustrated that it's not going up.
55:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you have, you know,
55:07
[SPEAKER_00]: As you go back into the to the move to the upside, you know, there's always the disbelief of like, oh, this isn't actually going to happen.
55:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I do think crypto is entering into a super important time where we got to start paying attention to this again.
55:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We got to start analyzing what it's doing.
55:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And clearly, there's a lot of stuff happening behind the scenes.
55:25
[SPEAKER_00]: We're just waiting for the technicals to kind of reflect some of the fundamentals that we are seeing across the board here.
55:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And the big catalysts seem to be, hey, let's wait for some sort of structure through these different structure bills, or maybe let's wait for the new Fed chairman, or let's wait for some of this fun and geopolitical macroeconomic, let's let that stuff settle down, but I think once you start seeing some of those big things that I just mentioned, get answered, and we start seeing resolutions to those.
55:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you can probably start to see crypto, you know, get a
56:00
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, again, maybe that's not going to happen immediately.
56:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe we do need to go a little bit lower, but crypto is an interesting point where it feels like prices a little bit disassociated with what's actually happening, which, again, I always go back to saying, I think that that creates true opportunity, but time will tell, too, though.
56:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Nope, time will tell and through that time we'll be here with you with multiple episodes a week, multiple interviews a week and just to always appreciate you guys being here.
56:28
[SPEAKER_05]: One last call, you know, the cohort for Brendan's trading course, check the link below if you're interested in that.
56:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Now's the time, it's the, you know, the drawdowns happen, it's the bore you out where you out phase and those technical indicators are going to be the first ones leading us out of this drawdown because we know the fundamentals are there, so the technicals
56:48
[SPEAKER_05]: or what you're going to need.
56:49
[SPEAKER_05]: So check out that link if you're interested.
56:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Check out all the other links below to get more involved in the community.
56:53
[SPEAKER_05]: We really appreciate everybody tuning in.
56:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Hope everybody has an awesome weekend and I'll be back next week with Brian to keep continuing breaking down the news and we'll have some fresh new episodes for you.
57:04
[SPEAKER_05]: But that's all for today.
57:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Thanks for tuning in and we'll talk to you soon.