Latest / Toadstool Sports / Padres/Giants MLB + WNBA Best Bets Monday 8/11/25

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Padres/Giants MLB + WNBA Best Bets Monday 8/11/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends slump that
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat. Man. I don't
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. Arch hate?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what data is anymore. But I don't even
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die, at least oh
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and two yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Oh and five the worst month that I've ever had
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: in my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: to even tell you about this anymore. The slump yesterdays,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you for Better Off Dead Monday,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: August eleventh, and if you I don't know how good
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: this mic is as far as being directional and keeping
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: all the sound up. But we got landscaping going on
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: because I'm in a complex and it is really fucking
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: irritating to me. It seems like they're doing it like
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: three fucking times a week. It's like, just leave me
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: the fuck alone. I'm trying to podcast here, trying to
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: do Better Off Dead, guys, come on pissing me off.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Uh A good Sunday own one Yesterday had the over
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: in Miami Atlanta, and I'm gonna be honest with you,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I think the female umpire ruined that bet. I mean,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Atlanta obviously scored enough for their end of the bier
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: and they won the game seven to one, so we
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: missed by one run on the over eight and a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: half there Miami couldn't get it together, man, shockingly, because
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Atlanta had used every single relief pitcher that they have
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: in their bullpen the previous day and it seemed like
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: they were just getting the calls dude, Like literally right
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: away the game opens, Wentz throws the first pitch like
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: six inches inside and the woman umpire calls it a
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: called strike, Like, are you fucking kidding me? She should
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: be fired. Man, I'm done with this. DEI bullshit. I
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. I do not want robot umpires either. Man.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Just let's go back old school to have the male
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: umpires if they get some shit wrong, get in their face,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: because you know you can't do that with a woman either,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: right if you're dude, it's not a good look. So
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: you can't get up in a woman's grill. Look what
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: the fuck was that call? You call them that a
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: fucking strike? You can't do that. So, yeah, I'm pissed
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: about it, obviously. I think that could have been a win.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And actually, let me see, did let me see if
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Miami actually had a solid amount of hits in the game,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: which might piss me off even more if that's the case,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: because that means it was so much closer, man, I'll
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: let me see. Uh yeah, Miami had six hits, so
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: debatably they should have had more than one run to
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: show for it. Although Atlanta was efficient, they only had
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: nine hits and they scored seven runs. They probably should
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: have scored a little bit fewer than that, so I
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: guess it is what it is. And Atlanta did have
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: to use their bullpen for almost half the game and
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: still wound up not allowing runs, which is just bad.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: You would think that a used up bullpen would get hit.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: And we're gonna talk about maybe some somewhat used up
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: bullpens today as well. I have one play. I don't
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: like this Major League Baseball card, even though Monday I
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: actually do usually like it. But let's get into it, man,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: let's do the rundown. We do have one WNBA game
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: and a somewhat shortened MLB card, although I think there's
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: still ten or eleven MLB games today. But usually with MLB,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: the crossover from one series to the next, with the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: travel situations or whatever. Usually I can find some like
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: sides that I like, but today not really the case. WNBA.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I don't like this game either. Connecticut at Golden State
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Golden State's down from a nine point favorite to an
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: eight point favorite. Haven't any dildos? I don't think. I
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: don't think any dildo ruined the Holy Day of Saturday yesterday. Andrew,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: you're betting on what purple dildo it might happen today?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: IM Golden State. One of their colors is purple, so
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: who knows. But who's even gonna go to this game
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: against the atrocious Connecticut Sun. Connecticut played yesterday as well
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: at Las Vegas, so not really traveling that far, but
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: they aren't a back to back, so I don't know
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: if it's really the greatest spot for Connecticut. Golden State
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: is just staying at home with the little litle bit
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: of extra rest off ending Low Street that they had
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: also to Las Vegas. What's gonna happen in this game?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I would kind of disagree with
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: that line movement there. I think Connecticut's in a pretty
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: bad spot. Golden State does have to keep playing because
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: they're playing for getting into the playoffs right now, so
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Golden State in that game, but
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: obviously I'm not gonna recommend a play on that robin.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: What's up? It's gonna be orange. What's the theory behind
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: that orange all right? To match your red hair? I
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: guess I'm not sure. MLB, we got games that are
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: all in the evening here we do Philadelphia at Cincinnati
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit earlier than the rest for whatever reason.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati returning home from a road trip, and you'll always
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: point out teams that return home from road trips not
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: a very good spot. They can tend to be a
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: little bit distracted, although maybe not the case with Cincinnati
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: because they're trying to make the playoffs right now. In
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is a pretty good team, so I don't think
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: they're really gonna overlook Philadelphia. Cincinnati salvage their series at
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh after losing the first two, they won the last two,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: so they're playing decent baseball right now. On the surface,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: this starting pitching matchup looks like it is heavily in
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: favor of Cincinnati, but there may be some reasons that
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: that isn't the case. Besides the fact that Cincinnati's were
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: turning over the road trip, which again you have to
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: get back to home life. That can add distractions some cases,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: more so in some cases than in other cases. Bullpen wise,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage I believe is actually probably on Philadelphia's
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: side here. Let me see, Oh no, actually maybe not one.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Am I thinking they used four relief pitchers yesterday. Cincinnati
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: used five though, so I guess that's what I was thinking.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: So Cincinnati's bullpen is the better one of the two,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: but it is used up a little bit. Philadelphia has
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: the better offense, obviously, but I don't think Philadelphia has
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the better starter at all. With Taiwan Walker, who doesn't
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: go deep into games and he does walk guys as
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: well as his name would suggest. Three point five to
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: three ERA this year pretty good, but one point three
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: whip not good. Better on the road though, two point
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: eight ERA in the road, But as I said, he
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: doesn't go deep into games van although they're letting him
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: go further now. He was coming out of the bullpen
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: for a while. They've kind of ramped him up to
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the point where now he is going like a starter's workload.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: He did actually make it six innings last time out
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: in his best outing of the season, shutting out Baltimore
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: with four strikeouts and no walks four hits. Allowed. Pretty
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: good start from Walker, but prior to that he wasn't
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: doing that well. He had no strikeouts in the prior
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: start against the White Sox, which is definitely a concern.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Did okay against the Yankees. The start prior to that
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: didn't do well at all against Anaheim, going only four innings,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: longing three runs. Getting through five and two thirds against
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: the Yankees only allowing three runs on the road is
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: pretty impressive, though, s Walker, he's a little bit older now.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: He's definitely a mixed bag. I don't really expect him
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: to go deep into games like this against the Cincinnati Reds.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: He does have good numbers against them, though, in forty
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: six at bats six to six strikeout walk ratio is
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: not good and also six RBI six six six that's
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: really not good. But he has a lot of two
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: seventeen batting average of five to seventy five ninety oh
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: pst excusually so they really have not hit him for
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: any hard contact, RELI or power. So Walker does have
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers against Cincinnati, although this is a pretty
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park and I'm pretty sure he's pitched there before.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Andrew Abbott is pitching for Cincinnati. He's been their best
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: starter two point three four ERA one point one to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: three whip two point zero five ERA at home, Abbot
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: definitely been good. He's been a little bit shakier over
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: his last three starts though, allowing multiple walks in all
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: three starts ten walks compared to eleven strikeouts over that span.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: That's not a great sign He's not in the greatest
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: form right now, although he still wasn't allowing many runs.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: The most runs he allowed in that stretcher was four
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: last time out at Wrigley Field, facing a pretty difficult
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Cubs lineup, so I might give him a little a
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: pass for that, but walking eight guys in the prior
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: to starts looks a little bit concerning man. So Abbot
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: looks to be kind of out of form right now
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: going up against Philadelphia, who again is not an easy
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: offense to face. They've hit him pretty well in the
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: pass and forty nine at bats two eighty six batting
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: average eight point fifty ohps, so Abbot might not do
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: as well in this game. So this game, on the surface,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: it looks like, well, Abbott is the way better pitcher,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: which in general I would say, yeah, he is, But
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: the situation Cincinnati having used a lot of their bullpen
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Abbot with the matchup numbers not being that good against Philadelphia,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: philadelphia better offense, it all does kind of balance out, man,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: so I would be a little bit worried about this,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: although I think the public is gonna want to take
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia here because even though they probably know who Abbot is,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you see Cincinnati as the lesser team as a favorite.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I think the public is going to be tempted to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: grab Philadelphia as an underdog because it just looks easy, right,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: take the better team as an underdog looks easy to
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: do that. So that kind of makes me not want
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: to do that either. I just don't want to play
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: this game at all. Cincinnati down for my just one
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: twenty five to minus one, twenty fifty three percent of tickets,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash coming in on Cincinnati, so
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the money is slightly on Cincinnati. Based on the percentages,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: looks like the stronger read is actually towards the over,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: with a toll going up to nine and a half
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets evenly split seventy one percent of
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, though I don't really disagree
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: with that because these bullpens aren't really that good. Both
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: offenses do have potential to hit pretty hard, Andrew Abbott
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: does have bad matchup numbers. I don't trust Tiwan Walker
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: at all. Abbott not in the greatest form right now
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: either in both bullpens. Not trustworthy and not rested. So
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for an over in that game.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: And it is a pretty hitter friendly ballpark too, so
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: that might be the better way to look at that game. Raw.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: What's up man? Uh, thanks for hanging out. I will
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: let you know well, I think you can see in
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: the title the one game I'm gonna recommend to play
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: on his Troit White Sox, which I know nobody wants
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: to look at that game, but I think there is
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: a pretty good angle in that game, which I will
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: get to it if my voice holds up. My voice
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: is terrible right now, so I will not be doing
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: it a ukulele for a while. Minnesota at the Yankees.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Yankees just lost a series to Houston, but they are
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: staying at home, so they're not traveling. The Yankees have
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: something to play for, whereas Minnesota is out of it,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: so they don't really have anything to play for other
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: than the fact that, well, maybe you just get up
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: to play the Yankees. Because the Yankees are a name team.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You know, they have one of the better records in baseball,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: so for that reason, maybe Minnesota will show up. They
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: are starting a road trip which does tend to be
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a focused spot. I actually won
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: four of their last five games, which isn't that bad either,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: so Minnesota with a little bit of momentum coming into
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: this one. Both bullpens are bad, so throw that out there.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: The Yankees actually probably have the better of the two bullpens.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota used a lot of their bullpen yesterday as well.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: The use five relief pitchers, although of them didn't throw
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: that many pitches and might be available again today. Yankees
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: only us three of their relievers. Of the other bullpen
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: really hasn't been that good, but Minnesota's has been worse.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Yankees obviously have the better offense. They have a couple
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: of big edges in this game, plus you know, staying
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: at home. Zebbie Matthews pitching from Minnesota. It looks like
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: he was on the d L again, but I don't
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: really think that's true because I think he did pitch.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I think he's pitching on normal rest here, So I
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: don't know what the deal is with that he's a
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: young pitcher that does have talent, does have strikeout ability,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: but his numbers don't really show it so far. Five
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: point one seven ERA, one point three to eight whip
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: is not good. He's worse on the road. Five point
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: six three er on the road. That's not good either.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: He did pitch on August fifth, Like I said, I
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: don't know when he was. He wasn't on the DL
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: since I think mid July or whatever I thought they
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: sent him down actually, so I don't know what why
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: it says he's on the injured list, and fucking ESPN
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: whenever somebody's on the injured list, you can't see the
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: batter versus pitchers staff fuck that. His last start was
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: good at Detroit, which is not an easy place to pitch.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Six strikeouts, one walk against a decent Detroit lineup in
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: five innings, won and run all out. So that was
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a good start for him. Had one bad start mixed
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: in there against the Red Sox. He's actually been kind
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: of alternating good and bad starts. Really went five innings long,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: one run against the A's at their hitter friendly park,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: then got wrecked a course field, give up five and runs.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: So that's a hitter friendly park as well. Then he
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: shut out Washington. Then he got hit pretty hard by
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox were a pretty decent offense. More bangers,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: he mean the ukulele or my jokes. I don't know, Leroy,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Things are hanging out with everybody, so Zebbie.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Matthews kind of has been alternating good and bad starts,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: which would mean his start this time would be bad.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: And it's not an easy place to pitch, obviously against
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Maybe he'll step it up to face the Yankees.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Yankees really have not seen a lot of him. Only
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: McMahon has ever seen him before Yankees third basement that
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: they got right before the trade deadline from Colorado, and
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: he is one for two off Matthew's the home run
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: and a strikeout, but really not a whole lot you
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: can glean from those numbers. I don't think Matthews will
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: be unfamiliar to the Yankees hitter, so that might give
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Matthews a little bit of an extra edge. Actually, I
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: do think he has a high ceiling. Like I think
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: his potential is better than what his numbers look like
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: right now. I might argue the same thing for the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Yankees pitcher here, Will Warren four point four to four ERA,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: one point four to two whip. Those are not good numbers.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: He's way better at home, though, two point eight eight
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: ERA at home, even though it is a hitter friendly park.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed three or runs across his last three starts,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: going at least five innings in all three starts, which
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: is a decent sign. Although what's not a decent sign
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: is he's walked three guys in four of his last
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: five outings, which is not good either. So Warren definitely
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: a mixed bag. He's definitely putting too many guys on base.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: He does have decent strikeout potential, so sometimes it's pretty
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: hard to hit, but he does walk guys. I believe
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: that the offense that he's facing here probably hasn't seen
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: that much of in Minnesota. Let me see, because I
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: think this is Warren's first season of the majors. Maybe Yeah,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has never faced Warren before, so he also has
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge there and that he
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: hasn't been seen before. So this game interesting game. Yankees
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: up for minus one sixty one seventy three sixty per tickets,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash can meet on the Yankees.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with the Yankee side. I mean,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: if you take into account the full game and whatever
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: in the entire situation, and the bullpens the offense, I
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: think the Yankees should win this game, not that I
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: want them to. As a Red Sox fan, I think
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: first five innings could be more of an under type
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: of game, though, because both pitchers have decent potential and
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: they're both pretty unfamiliar to the posing offenses. I don't
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: think I would want to risk it, but I could
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: see the first five innings going under, and then it's
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the game shifts later into the game, more runs scored
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: against these bullpens, and aren't that good. Wouldn't necessarily disagree
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: with an over though on the full game, just because
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: of that, and because you don't really know what you're
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of either starter seventy six percent of tickets,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: nine to nine percent of the cash on the over,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: which is that I heavily juiced over eight and a
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: half right now, Detroit Chicago. I'll skip right now because
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play on that. Pittsburgh at Milwaukee.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is on a hot streak right now, and they've
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: won a bunch of games in a row. But it's
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: this nine games in a row now for the Yankees,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: or excuse the Yankees. That would suck. Not the Yankees,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: the Brewers. Why do I keep saying the wrong team? Man,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I'm on no sleep. I apologize. Maybe I'm stroking out.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has won nine games in a row. They just
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: swept the New York Mets. They're on a real hot
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: streak right now. And yesterday they were losing this game, big,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: rolling in the game and they still won the game. Yeah,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: they were losing a five to nothing in the fourth
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: inning and then they won the game. Anyway, they were
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: still losing I think later into the game too. They
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: were down one run in the eighth inning, scored a
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: tide and then one with a walk in the ninth.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Brewers just out of control hot right now. Man, Pittsburgh
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: coming into this game, so Milwaukee's at home, but they
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: are off a very dramatic win. Could be a letdown
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: spot for Milwaukee, man, because that's a big series sweep
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: with a huge comeback win over the Mets and kind
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: of revenge for Milwaukee. Really, because I think when you
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: sweep the team that eliminated you from the playoffs last year.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Now you're really feeling like, oh yeah, like you're gonna
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: feel really good about yourself. And are you really gonna
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: pay that much attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates coming into
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: your place? Maybe not so. I do think there was
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: a letdown component here from Milwaukee. Pittsburgh coming in off
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: of a couple of losses to Cincinnati. They're starting a
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: road trip, which does tend to be a focused spot.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: You got to think Pittsburgh, even though they're out of it,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: they're facing the team with the best record in baseball,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: so they're probably gonna show up. And it's a divisional foe,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: so Pittsburgh probably will want to show up and play
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: in this game. Jamne, what's up man, Thanks for hanging out,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back again. Andrew Heeney, Well, actually, first
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: of all, I should say the bullpens actually give Milwaukee
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge in this game at this point. Pittsburgh's
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: bullpen is actually deceptively pretty good, but they're not as
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: good as Milwaukee's at this point. And they used a
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: lot of relief pitchers yesterday and Milwaukee did not, So
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is the better and more rested bullpen. Milwaukee is
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the way better offense, and on the surface, I would
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: say they probably have the better pitcher too. Andrew heen
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: he is pitching for Pittsburgh. He's been a really mixed
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: bag this year. Four point seven to seven ERA, one
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: point two to seven whip not that bad, but he's
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: been really bad on the road six point five to
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: five ERA on the road. Last couple of starts, he
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: didn't even make it five innings in either of them.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I only had two strikeouts across eight innings along four
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: and runs against Colorado, though granted that was a course field,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: so maybe you give him a pass for that, and
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: then San Francisco not a good offense, so Heeney, I mean,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: he hasn't really been in good form for a while.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: He had one good start in the mix there against Arizona,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: but other than that, he's been pretty bad for a while,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: and now for the last five or so starts, not
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: really good against Milwaukee. Does have a good offense, Like
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I said, they've hit him pretty hard and sixty one
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: at bats, fifteen to eight strike a walk ratio, five
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: home runs, three of them from Joey Ortiz, though, is
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: three for five with three home runs off him, so
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: maybe some player prop potential there, and that's a very
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: small sample size. Milwaukee overall is a three forty four
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: average against him in one thousand, ninety two oh ps.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: So even though it could be a letdown spot for
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee here, I'm not jumping out of my seat at
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: all to want to fade Milwaukee here because I think
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: they have the matchup edge in every aspect of this game.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Even though I don't like Jose Kingtana that much, who
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: was starting for Milwaukee here, he does still have a
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: three point five to seven ERA, so he keeps chugging
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: along and limiting runs. Man. However, he's doing it because
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: one point three to four whip is not very good.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: He's worse at home as well, four point nine to
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: winy Ara at home. He's coming off a nice outing
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta Real out three hundred runs and six innings,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, no walks. That's pretty good. I mean, that's
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the highest strikeout Tally's had maybe all season. Yet all
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: season he's not really a strikeout guy. It does show
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: you that he did have command in that outing, though,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: But I think Atlanta is a pretty strikeout prone offense,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: so usually you're not going to get that many strikeouts
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: out of Kintana. But he's also somehow not allowing runs
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: even though he's been putting too many guys on base
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: for the most part, a lot via the walk. He's
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: only along more than four and runs twice this season.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: It hasn't happened since mid June, So I mean he
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: is pitching effectively, at least to some extent, going up
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: against who were talking about Pittsburgh. Yeah, very bad offense
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, probably the worst in all of baseball, ninety
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, so a lot of a lot
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: of track record against Pittsburgh, and he's held him down
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: twenty three strikeouts, eight walks, two thirty three average six
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: to forty oh ps. So I do think you got
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: to give the edge to Kintana as well as some
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee They got the edge across the board here. They're
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: a huge favor but they're down for minus two to
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: twenty three to minus one ninety two now seventy eight
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets ninety two percent of cash on Milwaukee though,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: so it's kind of hard to read what's going on
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: here in the market. Man with that being the case,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I do think Milwaukee, if you're gonna have
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: to play this game, I would probably say you want
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: to go with Milwaukee, either over their team total or
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: you go on Milwaukee run line or something like that,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: even though they would have to win by multiple runs
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: at home and they might not bat in the ninth inning,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: but probably would do that or leave the game alone,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: even though it's a letdown spot for Milwaukee. So I'm
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: certainly not gonna do it at all. Washington at Kansas
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: City kiss of City. Debatably, they still have something to
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: play for, because I don't think they're totally completely out
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: of it yet, although they are two games below five
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: hundred now, so they might be starting to feel it.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: They're coming off of lost in Minnesota. They just had
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: a three series road trips. They're returning from Toronto, Boston, Minnesota. So,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: as I always say, returning go from road trips, you
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: tend to be a little bit unfocused. And it's an
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: interleague matchup against a pretty bad Washington team, So Kansas
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: City might fall into a distraction spot here. Man, they
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: might not totally focus on this Washington team. It's been
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: really bad. Washington definitely has the worst of the two bullpens,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: so they didn't use a lot of their bullpen yesterday.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Kansas City used more of theirs. But you still got
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: to give Kansas City the bullpen edge. Washington is terrible.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Washington does have the better offense. Kansas City's is really bad.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: As far as the starting pitching, I probably would leant
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: to Washington starting pitcher here as well. Cad Cavala, even
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: though I have some hesitation here because we don't really
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: know what he's gonna be yet. He does have a
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: zero er and point nine two whips so far, but
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: he only made one start this season. He's made two
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: in his entire major league career. He made one start
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: last year that was really bad. His start this year
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: was actually fairly good against the A's, even though he
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: only went four and a third and it was at home.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: He shut them out, had six strikeouts, one walk, three hits,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: so he had command. He was striking guys out. A's
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: are a pretty good offense really, so that was a
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: pretty decent performance from Cavali. And the fact that he's
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: now going up against a team that's never faced him
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: before and it's a bad line up in Kansas City,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: so he's actually stepping down in class to he's a
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: weaker opponent here in Kansas City. He might actually do
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: well in this game. Only Jonathan India has seen him
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: before and he is one for one, also with a walk,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: but I wouldn't take that much away from that. I
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: think Cavali could have the upper hand here because they
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: haven't seen him before. Bailey fall Thirst pitching for Kansas City.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Decent numbers this season four pointly one four, ERA one
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: point two to three whip. He's mostly been with Pittsburgh
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: this year. His ERA at home three point three to nine,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: although I believe that was all with Pittsburgh because Kansas
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: City just gone. Hi. Mean, he's only made one start
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: as a member of the Royals and he got bombed
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: at Fenway Park. Gave up seven and runs and four
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: innings to my Boston Red Sox, so he did not
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: do well in that game. He's not really in good
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: form right now. Man. He walked four guys in the
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: previous outing against San Francisco. Was better at home with
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: the Pirates though, so he is at home here in
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. He might have to get used to Kansas
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: City's park, but it is a pitcher friendly park, Kaufman Stadium,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: but he did pitch here once this year early in
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the season. He pitched against Kansas City. When was that,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I know he did, it was more recent and he
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: did not do well actually in this stadium against the Royals,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: who don't have a good offense. He went four and
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: two thirds, give up three and runs on six hits,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: two walks, three strikeouts. So he actually pitched pretty poorly
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: in this stadium this year. Maybe that's not a good
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: sign up against Washington. He has okay numbers, but they
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: have seen him before. Forty two at bats, eleven to
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: five strikegle walk ratio is not that good. Most of
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the damage is all from Josh Bell though, five for
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: nine with both home runs Washington has against him. He
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: has seld them to two thirty eight to average, which
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: is definitely low, but a seven to forty eight OHPS
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit on the higher side. So, just
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: because of the unfamiliarity aspect in the situation, my lean
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: in this one would be to Washington in the first
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: five innings money line, because I would not want to
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: do anything with Washington full game here because I don't
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: want to touch their bullpen at all. But Kansas City's
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: down for minus one fifty five to minus one forty five,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of tickets seventy two percent of the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: cash on Washington, so it does look like the money's
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: coming in on Washington. In a spot like this, I
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: don't think Kansas City deserves to be favored by that much,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: even though yes, Kansas City generally, I would say they
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: should have some motivation if they think they're still in it.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: But it's a tough spot. Man. The longest road trip
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: return spot of the day is Kansas City, so they
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: were on the longest road trip out of the teams
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: that are returning from road trips here. So that's not great,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: not a good spot, us being a bad spot. Saint
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Louis Cardinals against Colorado Rockies. Saint Louis is in a
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: bad spot. They played the Sunday night game. And you
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: know one of my angles on Monday, which I think
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: is basically every professional handicapper uses this angle. You take
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: a look at who played in the Sunday night game.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Was it a big matchup? Who won that game? And
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: in this case, Saint Louis pulled off a nice home
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: win over over the Cubs. I mean, that's a big win.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis pretty much knows they're out of it at
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: this point, and to beat the Cubs like that on
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: primetime on ESPN, that's a big win. Man. So they're
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: staying at home basking in that. So it doesn't let
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: down spot to me for Saint Louis. And of course
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: they have a quick turnaround time, although they aren't traveling,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: but still they played last night whereas every other team
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: played in the afternoon. For the most part, Colorado is
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: having to travel in from Arizona. But they are on
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: a bad stretch man seven losses in a row. They've
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: allowed double digit runs in four of their last six games.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Although we know Colorado is not good, but Saint Louis
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: is a lesser offense than Arizona and Toronto. I would
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: say so Colorado stepping a little bit down in class fasis.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis team really after those two teams. So we'll
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: see what Colorado is able to do here. They are
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: having to travel in, but they do have a little
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: bit of extra rest. Saint Louis has the better bullpenal
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: though it's not a great bullpen at this point. They
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: did trade away Hellsley their clotheser. They only used two
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, though Colorado also on the use two.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Though so bullpen's situation, I still give the edge to
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis because Colorado's bullpen is pretty atrocious, But I
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: don't know if that's really the you know, the full
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: extent of the handicap here. Colorado does have the worst
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: offense as well. Saint Louis does have the better offense,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: but the situation's bad for Saint Louis and the starting
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup. You could maybe argue that Colorado has a
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: chance to keep this game close with this starting pitching matchup.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: With Chase Dollander on the mount, who is a rookie.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: I believe he's been down to the miners. He was
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: definitely struggling in the majors, has no doubt about that.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: But he is a young guy with some upside. Six
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: point six eighty R a one point five to six whip. Yeah,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: those are not good numbers, but his numbers have been
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: really bad in course field, which again is that could
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: coursefield could destroy pitchers man. He's been at least serviceable
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: on the road with a four point twenty five roady
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: ra again. They send him down to the miners. Now
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: he's coming back up. He's got to face Saint Louis here.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Sometimes when guys go down on the minor, sometimes they
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: kind of figure stuff out and they come back up
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: and pitch a little bit better up against Saint Louis,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Let's see, because you know they want to turn the round,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: but they get a little bit more motivated. And Saint
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Louis has actually never seen Dollander before, so maybe he
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of an edge just because this
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: team hasn't seen him before. But that edge hasn't really
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: helped him so far this year, so maybe that's not
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: that much of an edge. The unfamiliarity. He is going
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: up against Miles michael Us for Saint Louis, though, who
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: is a veteran pitcher, throws junk and he's not that good.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Five point one, one point three to two whip not
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: great numbers. He is definitely better at home though, three
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: point six seventy ra at home, coming off a pretty
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: bad outing on the road against the Dodgers, only went
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: three innings. We'll have five earned runs, three on runs,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: seven hits, one strikeout, one walk, uh. The prior month,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: he had a decent nineteen to three strike out walk ratio,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: but he failed to go five innings in one of
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: the starts. He had a five point oh six ERA
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: that month still, so he wasn't exactly great over the
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: course of that month. He's not exactly good in general
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: up against Colorado, though we know Colorado is a weak offense,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: but he actually isn't that good against Colorado either. Although
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: it's a very small sample size twenty three at bats,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: Colorado does have a three Z four average against him,
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts, one walk, and a seven to twenty five OHPS,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: which isn't really that high. But the unfamiliarity edge and
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: the situation, maybe you could argue, you want you want
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: to look to a Colorado, I would probably take their
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: bullpen out of the equation. Though, maybe go Colorado run
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: line first five innings if you really want to try
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to do something in this game, that might be the
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: way to look in this game and go for Colorado
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: to try to keep this game close. In the early
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: parts of this game, Saint Louis down for minus two
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: fifteen to minus two of three to seventy five percent
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: and takes eighty one percent of the cash on them.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: I think Saint Louis probably doesn't deserve to be this
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: heavy of a favor. And I mean, you're always gonna
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: pay a tax for basically any Colorado opponent this year
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: because Colorado is so bad. But those are my thoughts
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: on that game. Arizona at Texas Tech. I just got
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: swept by Philadelphia at home. They're staying at home, so
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: at least they don't have to travel. So Texas they're
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: probably gonna show up, man, because I mean they have to. Basically,
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: they're falling out a playoff contention here. Texas needs to
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: show up and start playing better. Arizona is out of it,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: so motivation should be on the side. It's Texas here.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Arizona is coming in with momentum though they just swept Colorado,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: which again I mean not impressive to sweep Colorado. They
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: are starting a road trip where you do tend to
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: be focused to start a road trip, so at least
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Arizona might be focused for that reason starting a road
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: trip against Texas, although again Arizona knows that they don't
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: really have anything left to play for. Bullpen wise, Texas
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: definitely has a better bullpen Arizona's is not very good.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Texas used four relief pitchers yesterday, though Arizona only used three,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: but I think you still have to give Texas the
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen advantage in this game. Starting pitching kind of interesting.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson is pitching for Arizona and he's doing a
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: lot better than I would have thought. Three point two
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: are at one point zero, I've whipped. Those are good numbers.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: He is worse on the road though, four point five
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: ye are on the road, even though Arizona plays in
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park, so you try to figure that out.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Over his last two starts, he's actually
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: been pretty good with sixteen strikeouts and two walks in
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: eleven innings, which is pretty good, and only allowed three
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: earned runs over that span against Detroit on the road
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: and then San Diego, so offenses that are not pushover.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: So he's actually in pretty decent form over the last
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: two starts at least, and he's stepping down in class
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: to face a pretty weak Texas offense here. Nelson, though,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't have good numbers against Texas and thirty eight at
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: bats five to four strake a walk ratio. Three different
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Texas hitters have homers off him two eighty nine batting
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: average allowed, nine to sixty two oh ps. So his
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: numbers are actually not good against Texas. So Nelson might
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: actually struggle in this game because he is worse on
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: the road and his numbers against Texas are actually not good.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Nathany Evaldi is pitching for Texas, and he got to
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: think he can't continue to be this good over the
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: course of this season. Is a thirty five year old,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: but man, is he having a good season. One point
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: three eighty RA point eight four whip. He's been basically
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: pretty good home in a way, it doesn't really matter
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: that much. He's allowed two earned runs going all the
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: way back through the beginning of July right now, in
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: thirty eight and two thirds in he's pitch. He's only
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: allowed twenty two hits over that span, only allowed one
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: home run over that span, has a thirty six to
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: eight strike a walk rasie over that span, and he's
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: coming off of eight inning, one hit shutout, coming off
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: of a eight inning, one hit shutout and eight in
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: one hit shotout over the Yankees with six strike gouts
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: no walks. Really good outing for him? There? Does that
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: mean he's gonna be in a letdown spot. I don't know.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: And Texas has also won six straight starts of his
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Evaldi obviously pitching really well right now against Arizona's numbers
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: are actually not as good as you would think. In
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: sixty three at bats fifteen to five strike at walk
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: ratio is alright, but two eighty six banning every seven
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: eighty three oh ps a little bit high. So both
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: already pitchers actually don't have great matchup numbers here. I
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: could see an argument for the over in this game, man.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, the total has gone down from eight to
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, so it's a very low total
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: because it's Evaldi on the mound, it's a pitcher friendly park.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: Texas offense isn't that good. We know Arizona does have
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the better offense here, but fifty six percent tickets fifty
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the catch on the over, it could
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a sneaky over here. Man.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: You don't have a whole lot of leeway with a
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: seven and a half total here, so I could see
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the argument for that. And the money looks like it's
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: coming out on Arizona as well. With Texas sitting at
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: minus one fifty five seventy percent tickets on them, fifty
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming out on Arizona. I'm not
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: sure that I would agree with that Texas is the
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: team that does have something to play for at least,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: but I think some of it is just that. I
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: think the sense from the professional betters is again that
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: the price is probably too high on Texas, especially with
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: the way that they can't hit. So we'll see what
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: happens there. Boston and my Red Sox are at the Astros.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: This is a revenge spot for the Astros because the
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Astros just got swept at Fenway Park a few series ago,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: so Houston probably will want to show up for this.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Although Houston is returning home from a road trip and
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: they were on actually a three series road trip as well,
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: so one of the longer road trips. They went to Boston, Miami,
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: in New York, so they're returning from the East Coast.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: They could be in a letdown spot because they did
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: win the series against Miami and against New York. So
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: they're returning home for beating the Yankees and beating them
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: up yesterday, which is big. They should still be focused
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: on the Red Sox, though, because the Red Sox again
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: just swept them not that long ago, and the Red
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Sox have a good record as well, so I don't
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: expect Houston to be totally distracted, but it is kind
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: of a bad spot for them returning home like that.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox are continuing a road trip coming in
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: from San Diego, so they are shifting time zones as well.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: But they're already in the middle of a road trip,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: so I think the spot is a little bit worse
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: for Houston here. Bullpen wise, I would say Houston probably
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen of the two. I think it's close, though.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Houston actually has the best whip bullpen whip, the ERA
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: isn't the best. Red Sox have fallen off a little
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: bit whip wise, the Red Sox whip isn't that good
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: to the ERA is actually still amongst the best, so
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Houston does have somewhat of a bullpen edge here. I'd
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: give probably give the Red Sox a hitting edge a
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: little bit here. Yeah, as you can see, Red Sox
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: sixth in ops Houston eleventh. So take from all that
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: what you will, but the Red Sox to have one
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: of the best pitchers in the game on the mound here.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet two point two four ERA one point oh
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: seven whip. He's been actually better on the road two
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: point eighty R. I mean, Fenway's a pretty hitter friendly park.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have won a lot of his recent starts. Man,
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: They've won five starts in a row behind him, They've
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: won nine of his last ten starts. He's allowed no
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: more than turn runs going all the way back to
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: late June. In any start, he's got at least five
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: innings in every game. He's got at least six in
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: his last four starts, including starts against the Cubs and
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, so he faced two really good lineups and
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: did really well against them. I mean Crochet, he's feeling
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: it right now. He's well. Had another good outing last
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: time out against Kansas City, even though they suck. He
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: had another high strikeout rate in that one. He's got
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: a thirty nine to seven strike a walk ratio since
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: the beginning of July. We get it. He's pitching really
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: well right now up against Houston. I don't think his
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: numbers are actually that good in his career though. Let
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: me see, uh yeah, thirty six at bats three zero
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: six average allowed seven to thirty six oh ps. Hasn't
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: allowed a ton of power, but thirteen to four strike
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio, highest strikeout rate, somewhat of a high
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: walk rate as well, a little bit so crische. I mean,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have the best numbers against Houston. They're not
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: the worst either. I believe he didn't even face Houston
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: last time by the Red Socks played Houston, so I
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: don't think he's faced them this year. I don't expect
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Crochet to really do poorly though, and Houston. As Christian
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Havier pitching, he's coming back from the d or Hovier,
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: he's coming back from the dl Man. He's been injured
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: since last season. He hasn't pitched yet in the majors
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: this year. Last year he had a three point eight
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: nine year. I think he only made about seven starts.
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: His era was good, but his whip was pretty bad
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: one point four to one. Something happened to him, man,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what, because through twenty twenty two he
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: actually had really good numbers and then it was like
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden, his numbers got way worse, but
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: his walk rate. I think it must be his walk
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: rate got way higher or something, because I don't know
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: what the deal is. Otherwise, Yeah, it looks like it did. Yeah,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: over the last couple of seasons, he started walking way
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: more guys. So there's something a little bit off about Hoavier.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know how he's gonna respond to returning from
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: being out of major league baseball for this long. I
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: didn't look to see what he did in the minors.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Ohough last year he was actually way better at home.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: He had a one point nine to three ARRA at
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: home last year. But again, what should we expect out
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: of a guy that's been out of baseball, out of
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: major league baseball for so long. I'm not so sure, man,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: But the Red Sox are definitely not gonna be that
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: familiar with him because the Red Sox have a lot
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: of young guys. They have twenty two at bats against him,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: six to six strikeout walker. He's just not good for Javier,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: but he has limited them to two twenty seven. Batting
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: average seven fifty six ohps is a little bit high,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: mostly because of all the walks and a few doubles
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: in there. So again, I mean, you got to give
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching against to Crochet though, I mean, he's
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: just that good Hoavier. You don't you don't even know
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: what you're gonna get out of Hoavier. Red Sox are
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: probably too heavy a favorite here though, man. I mean
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: they're a road favorite of a pretty significant amount, which
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: probably they should not be. They're down from my minus
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: one sixty five to minus one sixty three, but sixty
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets seventy percent of the cash coming
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: in on the Red Sox. The money looks like it
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: is coming in on the Red Sox. Total is very
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: low at seven and a half, and I see money
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under seventy one percent tickets on
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: the over eighty nine percent of the cash in the
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: under professional better is seemingly thinking that Javier is actually
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: gonna pitch well in this game. I'm not so sure
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: about that. But again, Houston does have a good bullpen.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I could see this being a lower scoring game for sure.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Houston returning home from a road trip, their offense could
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: struggle a little bit. I mean, I might have a
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: slight lean towards the Red Sox being able to win
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: this game, but I don't even know about that. I mean,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: with that price, there's no way that I would play
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox in that game, though, we got kind
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: of a cross city rivalry here with la and Anaheim. Here.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is probably in the worst spot here because they
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: were returning home from Detroit, even though they only had
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: one series road trip. But Anaheim returning over from Detroit,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: although it's the Dodgers, so Anaheim, you know, you figure
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: they will be focused with the Dodgers coming into their place.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a big rivalry, the natural interleague rivalry,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: and it's the Dodgers. I mean, they're one of the
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: best teams. Still, Dodgers in the better spot though, because
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: they were just at home, so all they're doing is
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: driving like thirty minutes down the road to Anaheim. So
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers are in the better travel spot here. Anheim's
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: bullpen is so bad that I think the Dodgers' bullpen
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: is actually better. Dodgers use a few relief pitchers yesterday
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: they actually used five, but they only use two of
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: them for four and two pitches apiece, So those two guys,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Bonda and Casparius are probably available today as well. Anaheim
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: used one relief pitcher, so they did actually save their bullpen.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: But Aneime's bullpen's not good man, so I think the
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Dodgers still, you probably give them a slight bullpen edge,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: even though their bullpen's not good either. Starting pitching, you
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: gotta give the edge to Yamamoto for the Dodgers. He's
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: been really good two point five one ERA, one point
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: zero four whip, really good on the road, one point
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: six three ERM the road. He's coming off a shutout
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay. Over his last two starts, he's gone
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: twelve to two thirds, only allowing nine hits a one
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: on run, and he has a fifteen to two strikeout
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: walk ratio of that span, so he's pitching pretty well.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: He's in good form right now, hasn't allowed more than
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: three in runs since mid June, so yeah, I mean
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: he's dealing it right now, feeling good. I believe Anaheim
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: has actually never even faced him before as well. Only
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Paraza has ever seen him before, and he's zero for two,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: often with a strikeout, So Yamamoto basically has never been
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: seen before. So he has another edge there against Anaheim,
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: and that they're unfamiliar with him. Jac what's up man,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: He's hanging out. So Yamamoto does have the edge here
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: against Jose Soriano, who's got a four point zero one ERA,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: but a one point four whip is very high. He's
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: worse at home as well. Five point five to sixty
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: are at home. Not really in good form right now
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: after he allowed seven earned runs at home to Tampa
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: Bay last time, which is not a good sign. He
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: was actually pitching decently over the previous few starts, but
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: I think he might be falling out a form again here. Man,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: I don't really trust Soriano. I don't trust him at home.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: He's not think it's a good Dodger lineup. Dodgers obviously
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. They only have nine at bats
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: against Soriano, but they have a two to two strike
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: out walk RACEIO three thirty three averages seven eighty eight ops,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: so they have hit Soriano pretty well. I mean, I'm
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: thinking the Dodgers probably have the edge in this game.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: I know you have to pay a price for them.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: They're up for minus one seventy and minus one seventy one,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: seventy four percent takets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Dodgers. I would probably lean Dodgers
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: run line first five innings though. If I was gonna
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: do this, I think that's the way. Just avoid the bullpens.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Even though both bullpens aren't very good. I think because
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the Anaheim rested their bullpen, they at least have that
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: going for their bullpen. So that's probably the way that
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: I look at this game. The total sitting at eight
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: and a half, with money coming in on the under
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of tickets and seventy three percent of
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under. I don't know if I
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: would totally agree with that. San Diego san Francisco. I
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: do actually agree with an under. I would lean to
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: an under in this game. San Francisco is staying at
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: home and they just got shut out by Washington, So
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: San Francisco probably gonna be in a bad mood here, man.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're gonna show up for this game,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: so you know that much for San Francisco. At least,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: it's a big divisional matchup. I mean, San Francisco has
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: even more to play for than San Diego because San
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Francisco's falling out of it. I mean, they're on the
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: verge of basically looking like their season might be over,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: so they got to play man. San Diego also has
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: to because San Diego is in second place here. They
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: gotta make sure they get a wild card. Here. San
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Diego is coming off beating my Red Sox and now
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: they're traveling with momentum, So it's not a bad spot
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: for San Diego either. Really, they're traveling up the coast
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: to San Francisco, but staying in the same time zone
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: and with momentum starting a road trip should be a
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: focused spot for both teams. We have two really good
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: bullpens here. These are two of the top, like few
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: bullpens era wise, I believe over the course of the season,
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: San Diego on these three relief pitchers yesterday if they
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: used a bunch the previous day, San Francisco only used one.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: So these bullpens are in pretty good shape coming into
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: this game. Man, So the bullpens look good in this game.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: I think the only question as far as playing the
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: under in this game is what are you gonna get
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: out of you Darvish, Because I actually like the under
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: in this game quite a bit. This almost became a
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: play for me. You Darvish is just very much an
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: unknown right now. Man. He just came back from injuries,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: made four starts so far, and three of the four
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: have been bad, or maybe it's five. He's only had
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: one good start though he has a six point five
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: to one ERA one point three to four WHIP. Those
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: are not good numbers. Really bad on the road so
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: far ten point two to two ERA, which also worries me. Actually,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: he said six starts already, my mistake. It feels like
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: he just came back not that long ago. But he's
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: actually really only had one good start. He's allowed multiple
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: runs in every start besides the shutout start they have
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: with the Mets. Two starts to go, but then he
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: kind of regressed again, only going four in. He's allowing
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: three earned runs at Arizona, although Arizona is a pitcher
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: friendly park and is a hitter friendly park, excuse me.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: And San Francisco is a pitcher friendly park and San
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Francisco is a bad offense, so Darvish is at least
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: stepping down in class to face this bad offense here. Overall,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: he looks like he is kind of rounding back into
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: form to some extent, though against sar Francisco he also
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: does have good numbers and thirty nine at bats, they
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: only have six hits off him, zero extra RaSE hits
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: fourteen to four strike a walker ratio one fifty four
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: batting average in three eighty six oh ps, So Darvish
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: does have pretty dominant numbers against San Francisco. Logan Webb
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: is pitching for San Francisco. I mean, he's basically the
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: most consistent starting pitcher for them. Three point t one
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: point two to five whip two point seven eighty ra
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: at home, so he is better at home. He's coming
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: up back to back one run outings or he had
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: double digit strikeouts in both of those outings, so he
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: did come back into form over those last two outings,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: but they were both against Pittsburgh. We know Pittsburgh's a
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: bad offense. San Diego is a little bit better than that.
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: But he did pitch against San Diego in this park
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: earlier this year and he eight innings shut out them
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: with seven strike cuts and no walks, So web might
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: do fine in this game against San Diego. His numbers
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: overall are somewhat mediocre and two hundred and eleven at bats,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: so they have a lot of experience against him, but
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: they haven't really hit him for power. They only have
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: two on the runs off him, They have forty three
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: strike cuts and only eight walks. That's a pretty good
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio for WEB against them, a two eighty
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: four average is a little bit high, so they do
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: hit him for some contact, but not a whole lot
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: of power with the six eighty three oh ps, which
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: is still pretty low. So I would be still fairly
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: comfortable with an under in this game. Totals already dropped
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: from seven and a half to seven than eighty three
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets nine nine percent of the couch in
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: the over. But I actually like the under in this game.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: I'm tempted to do it, Man, Should I do it?
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is it's definitely close to being a
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: play for me. Although I know when I last minute
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: make a play, they like tend to always lose, which
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: is why, which is why that's like the last play
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: that I put onto my card. Man, you know what
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I mean. Let me look at what's going on here
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: with the market. Here we got san Diego. I mean,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: I might be fading the market with the other one too,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: but I mean this it's so much looks like old
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: I gotta look at the total here. It really looks
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: like an underplay to me, though, Um, you can get
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: under seven and a half at minus one fifteen, still
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: at fan duel, I would go up to minus one
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: twenty on that, which I think you can still find
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: in some places. You know what, Let's do it. Let's
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: have two totals today. So that's one of my best bets,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: so an early best bet there. The other one is
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: in an earlier game. But two totals today, why not
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: San Francisco or excuse San Diego San Francisco. All right,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: hold on, yeah, because it's at San Francisco. There you go,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: San Diego San Francisco under seven and a half. That'll
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: be one play. We need you to do well though.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: You come on, you, let's do it. It's a Seinfeld. Oh
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: you Dolores Malva. All right. Tampa Bay and the A's
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: is the last game on the slate here. The A's
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: are returning on from a road trip to the East Coast.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: So it's not a good spot for the A's really.
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, they know they're out of it, and they
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: don't play well at home in this weird A's Sacramento
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Stadium there in Tampa is actually one of the teams
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: that's kind of used to this because Tampa is the
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: other team that's playing in a temporary stadium. They're playing
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: in Steinburner Field, so Tampa actually kind of used to
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: situations like this, so it might not be that much
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: of a disadvantage for Tampa. The A's returning over from
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: the East Coast or they went to Washington Baltimore, so
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a bad spot for the A's Again,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: he could be a little bit distracted on the return home.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Tampa already on the Pacific Coast and coming off getting
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: swept by Seattle, so they might be a little bit
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: angry here just traveling down. Already adjusted to the Pacific
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: time zone, so Tampa's in a better travel spot here too.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: So I do lean the Tampa in this game generally,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: when Tampa obviously has the better bullpen as well, and
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: they used three relief pitchers yesterday, which isn't that bad either.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: The A's used a bunch they used five, so the
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: bullpen advantage definitely goes to Tampa Bay as well. Does
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: Tampa have the starting pitching edge, I would say they
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: probably do slightly. With Ryan Peppio, He's been a little
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: bit all over the place, but his overall numbers are
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Three point seven to seven ERA one point
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: one to eight whip. I know the advanced analytics guys
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: don't like him. He's gotten bombed at home for seventeen
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: home runs. I know that, even though his era is
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: actually somewhat worse on the road four point one to
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: ninety array in the road. Maybe it's not a good
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: sign for Pepio though, because he allows a lot of
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: home runs at home. Well, it's because he's thrown way
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: more innings pitched at home, that's why. But in a
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: home run friendly park like he is at home, maybe
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: that does mean he'll give up some bombs in a
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: similar stadium here, which maybe that's not great. But other
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: than that, I don't know if I hate Pepio. I mean,
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: he did have a decent start last time out to
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: kind of bounce back from a really ugly start at
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: the Yank. He's the previous start, which I don't know
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: if I really would knock him that much for losing
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: to the Yank. Hees like that a little Tampa had
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: lost five of his starts in a row. He had
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: a few bad starts in there. He might be returning
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: to for him a little bit, because he did go
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: five to two thirds against Anaheim allowed two earned runs,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, two walks. It wasn't that bad of a
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: performance from Pepio in that one. I believe he did
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: face the A's once. Yet he faced the A's once
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: not that long ago early July, so I know that
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: means they've seen him recently. But he pitched fairly well
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: in that game. Six innings, give up two earned runs,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: both on solo homers. He did give up three walks,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: which is a concern, but he also struck out nine,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: so it was one of his better strike up performances
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: of the year. The A's are a good offense. I
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: mean they do the better offense, so that's the one
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: real edge that they have here. Pepio has done decently
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: against him, except that he's allowed power to them. They're
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: only eight for thirty nine off them with thirteen strikeouts
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: four walks, but they do have three on runs off him,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: so three different hitters of home earn off him. But
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: a two five average really low. Eight oh eight ohps
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: is a little bit high, but I still think Pepio
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: should do okay in this game. On the other side,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Springs is actually pitching pretty well for the AA
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: is surprisingly three point eight to nine ERA one point
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: one two whip. He's only been slightly worse at home.
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Really not significant at all, Oliver. His last three starts,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: he's only allowed four combiner and runs over eighteen innings.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: He's only allowed seven hits over that span. He has
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: seventeen strikeouts and two walks the Springs, He's actually in
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: pretty good form right now, man. He's only allowed more
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: than three runs once going all the way back to
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: late may So Springs. Yeah, I mean he's under the radar.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: He's doing it. He's pitching pretty well as well. His
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: numbers against Tampa, however, were actually not good. In eighteen
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: at bats. It's a very small sample size, but he's
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: lowed three walks, two strikeouts, two home runs, three thirty
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: three batting average one two hundred and six ops. So
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I would still lean to Tampa in this game, man,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: I think based on the matchup Murders, you do give
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: them the slight edge. The money is coming in towards them,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: as have dropped for minus one twenty to minus one
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: oh seven, sixty one percent of tickets on them, sixty
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash coming in on Tampa bus so, so
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: money is coming into Tampa there. Obviously, I agree with that.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: That is the way that I would lean in that game.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: And let's go to best bets, man, even though I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: sorry the rundown best bets, even though I already gave
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: you one of the best bets, which was the under
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: in San Diego San Francisco under seven and a half.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go with that one. And the other good
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: thing about that is that San Francisco's offense is atrocious
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: and San Diego's has been massively underperforming. The other play
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: is gonna be an over and it's Detroit and the
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: White Sox over eight and a half. You can see
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: that a minus one fifteen I think out there right now.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: You know, I know going on and over with the
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: White Sox is a little bit of an issue, like
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: because their offense is so bad, but their offense hasn't
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: been as bad recently really. I mean, I know they've
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: lost some games here, but they put up decent run
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: totals in some of those games, five to six, five,
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: you know, a couple of games they didn't do well,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: but their offense is doing a little bit better as
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: of late, so at least you do have that going
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox. The White Sox are staying at
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: home after breaking a bad loss street. They've lost six
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They finally beat Cleveland, and they're
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: staying at homes. White Sox. They may still show up
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: here against Detroit as well, because Detroit, you know, I mean,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Detroit's leading their divisions. The White Sox probably will show
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: up focused and consider it to be a big series,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: though with nothing a whole lot, not a whole lot
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: left to play for, but with the division front runner
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: coming to your place, you might show up for that.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: Detroit is starting a road trip, not a huge travel
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: spot traveling from Detroit to Chicago. They got a little
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: bit of momentum after beating Anaheim, so Detroit not really
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot either. Detroit, Yes, they have a
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: decent bullpen. They're the better of the bullpens. They're the
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: better offense as well. Their bullpend did only use three
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers, so their bullpen isn't really in that bad
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: of a spot. So that's the one. The one thing
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: that's kind of pointing against this over is that, But
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: everything else seems to be pointing to the over for me,
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, these four relief pitchers yesterday and their
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen's not good. So that's one thing we got to
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: obviously keep in mind here. And then I don't like
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup. Chris Paddock is pitching for Detroit.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Don't think he's very good. Four point nine one, one
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: point two to five whip on the season. I know
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: that whip isn't that bad, but he has a five
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: point four ERA on the road, which is not good.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: Detroit got him from Minnesota right at the trade deadline.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: He had one good start against Arizona and then he
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: kind of regressed back to his old ways against his
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: old team, No Less. So he should have been pumped
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: up to face the team that traded him away, being like, hey,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: look at this, I'm on a contender now we're gonna
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: beat you, And instead he lost the game and did
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: terribly bad Minnesota offense at home No Less for Detroit.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: He went four innings, allowed four and runs, had no strikeouts,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: although they didn't walk anybody, he did allow six hits
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: as well. That's not a good sign. That was not
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: a good start at all for him. So he's not
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: really a great form right now in my opinion. And
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: the White Sox actually hit him pretty well in fifty
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: one at bats, ten strikeouts, three walks is actually decent
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: for Paddock, but he's allowed three on runs to them
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: to three different hitters, two ninety four batting average allowed
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: and eight twenty four ohps, so he's allowed the White Sox,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: even though there not a good offense, they've actually hit
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: Paddock pretty well. I don't trust Paddock. I don't think
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: he's very good. And the White Sox have Elvis Peguero
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: listen as their starter here, and I don't think that's
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: a good thing. He's basically a relief pitcher, so he's
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: probably only gonna come into this game for a couple
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: of innings to open the game. Then you have a
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: White Sox bullpen that doesn't really have a whole lot
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: going on here, so it doesn't look great to me
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox. Paguero four point nine one ERA
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: one point six to four whip and then he's gonna
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: give away of the bullpens Elvis will have left the building.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: He's also been bad at home twelve VRA at home.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Although I know it's a small sample size, he really
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't pitched much at all this year. So far. So again,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: I guess you could go look at his previous stats,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: but I mean his career stats are nothing impressive at all.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Four point one two ERA in his career one point
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: four to six with that's not good. Actually, he was
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: with Milwaukee this season, so Milwaukee, even though they're a contender.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee must have traded him away even though they're a
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: contender here, So all these numbers with Milwaukee, So take
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: from that what you will, I guess, but he's probably
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: not gonna be feeling too happy about that either. The
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: fact that he went from the team with the best
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: record in baseball to one of the worst teams in baseball.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, that might put you in a bad mental
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: state as well. And again, he hasn't gotten more than
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: two winnings in any of his appearances, so I don't
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: think he's gonna be out there for very long. So
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: it doesn't look like he sets up very well for
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: the White Sox either, So I'm gonna go over in
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: this game. Totals up a little bit eight and a
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: half with more use on the over here. The percentages
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: haven't really seen much going on with the percentages yet,
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: but that's gonna do it. Man, so once again. My
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: plays are over eight and a half in Tiger's White
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: Sox and under seven and a half in San Diego
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: and Giants Padres Giants. That's gonna do it. Man to
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the Fathers against the Nephelm. That's gonna do it for me. Man.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Learn to toad on Twitter, you can find me there.
• 56:22
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• 56:25
  Speaker 1: short form betting content on there. Better off dead of course,
• 56:29
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• 56:32
  Speaker 1: the YouTube. Uh, you know, interacts reply, you know, I
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: usually get to the replies because there aren't that many.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: So thanks for all that. Check me out on the
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: audio as well, Spotify, Apple. The more I get on there,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: the more on money I can make off, which is
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: right now it's nothing, so hopefully those audio platforms take
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: off somehow. And then I got covered in Yuke my
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: ukulele project, which is on YouTube. You can check that
• 56:56
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• 56:58
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• 57:01
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• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Yuke feed and prioritize requests at a higher level. That's
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Thanks for hanging out, everybody, Happy Monday.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: Let's start the week with some winners here and that's
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: it for now. Peace. Hopefully my voice fixes itself.