Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Who Are U? | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football | 9/18/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Who Are U? | MLB & WNBA & NCAA Football | 9/18/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: in your head Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: they made you this mad But don't you go quiet,
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 4: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Not.
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: Tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
• 1:04
  Speaker 4: you out That fella fights hard But it don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:27
  Speaker 5: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you Toadstool Sports Friday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: September 18th We went 1-1 with the two.
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: Baseball plays yesterday Detroit.
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: I didn't see the game I think it was maybe
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: a bad break on that one though they lost three
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: to one but they out hit the White Sox is
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: that who it was they out hit them I think
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: eight to four eight to five something like that so
• 1:51
  Speaker 5: I don't know it was maybe a little bit of
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: a misleading result I'd have to kind of see what
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: exactly happened in that game and then the Anaheim game
• 1:59
  Speaker 5: was just absolutely crazy like That should have been an
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: easier winner than it was.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: They were up 3-0 in the first inning. Like, okay,
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: that's looking good.
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: But then Bradley completely settled down. No runs for the
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: rest of the game until the eighth inning. It was
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: still 3-0. So Anaheim just didn't score again. I mean,
• 2:16
  Speaker 5: their offense is just hideous. Even though you'd think they
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: would score at least something extra against Minnesota. No, we
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: get to the eighth inning. I'm like, okay, we got
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: to deal with Anaheim's bullpen here, but... You know, a
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: three-run lead.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: We could deal with this. Well, they give up one
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: run in the eighth. Okay.
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: Let's bring in one of your better relievers here, even
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: though I know these guys are not good.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Close the game out. We get to the ninth inning.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: We get two outs. Nobody on base. We're up 3-1.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: All right. Put an end to this. Then what happens? Oh, yeah.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: Single home run. And now all of a sudden it's 3-3.
• 2:53
  Speaker 5: I'm like, you have to be fucking kidding me. We're
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: actually going to lose this fucking game.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Like... Seriously, two outs, nobody on, up two runs, and
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: you're going to blow it at that point? What the hell, dude?
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: So they got the third out. We go into extra innings.
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: Minnesota scores the ghost runner in the top of the 10th.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: I'm like, great, okay. And we got to deal with
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's terrible offense. Maybe they'll be able to score the
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: ghost runner, but luckily... Anaheim actually put up some offense
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: in the bottom of the 10th.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they put a couple guys on base.
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: I think it was a little bit of a small
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: ball type of situation, but they got two runs to
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: win the game in the bottom of the 10th.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: So they just put a few guys on base. That
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: was it. They kept moving base runners over.
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: They had a runner on third multiple different times, got
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: both those guys home, and that was it. So we
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: should have won that game way more easily. I still
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: think it was the right side. But, yeah, that was
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: a first five would have been a lot less aggravating.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: I guess. All right. Yeah. Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: for hanging out. Cover it? No.
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'd have to figure out the chords. Like,
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: nobody has the chords to it because... It's not an
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: actual song. I'd have to actually listen to it and
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: figure it out.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: No, I'm not going to do that. I'm not going
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: to spend any time to do that. All right. I
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: don't know why I'm looking at football here because that
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: was the last thing I handicapped. All right, baseball.
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: I hate doing this, man. Seriously, there's just way too
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: much baseball to get through.
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: I have one play today. I don't know.
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: Maybe I'm being too selective here. Cubs at Cincinnati is
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: the first game here. The Cubs have a rest advantage.
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: They did not play yesterday. Cincinnati played. They're staying at home,
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: and they lost to the Dodgers yesterday.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: What else is new? Although they actually won the previous game.
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: The Cubs coming off a big series against the Braves,
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: so possible letdown spot for the Cubs here, although they're still,
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: I guess, battling with Philadelphia for which team between the
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: two is going to have home field against the other
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: team in the wild card round.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: At this point.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: Cubs have the rest edge, but possible letdown here, in
• 5:15
  Speaker 5: my opinion, off of that big Braves series. And how
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: much are they really going to pay attention to Cincinnati?
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: But I don't really want to deal with Cincinnati with
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: no rest advantage either. Cincinnati has the better starting pitcher here,
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: which means that it's Chase Burns, obviously. But they've been
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: limiting him recently. Cincinnati, I'm not going to deal with
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: their bullpen, as I never do. They used three relief
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday while the Cubs were off. The Cubs are
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: number 16 in bullpen based on whip. Cincinnati's 25th, so
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: Cubs are better there. Cubs are the number one offense
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: in OPS. Cincinnati's number 24, so the Cubs are better
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: there as well.
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: Cubs going with Clay Holmes in this one. He's had
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: a good season, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 whip. The majority of
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: it was with the Mets. until he broke his leg
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: earlier this season.
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: He's not as good on the road, though. 3.77 road.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: ERA.
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: He's been pretty good with the Cubs most of this time.
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: He was bad in his first start with them against
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: Kansas City. Settled down and was really good for a
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: stretch of four starts. Then he was awful on the
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: road against the Marlins, which, by the way, his two
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: worst starts or his two really bad ones with the
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: Cubs were both on the road. And I'm not going
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: to say that he really bounced back in his last tournament.
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: He was okay against Pittsburgh last time, but his walk
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: rate was pretty terrible.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: So I don't think he's in great form right now.
• 6:42
  Speaker 5: 8-7 strikeout walk ratio in his two starts this month.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: He does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is somewhat questionable, and his strikeout rate
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: is low. So he has a bad strikeout walk ratio.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: 2.1, that's not very good. 7 Ks per 9 isn't
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: really high either.
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: Holmes, I mean, he's kind of like, he's a ground
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: ball pitcher for the most part, if I'm not mistaken.
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: Holmes against Cincinnati, I believe he is good against them, though,
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: and their offense has been pretty pathetic this year, including
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: at home, even though it's a hitter-friendly park. They have
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: 25 at-bats against them, a 160 average, 382 OPS, 5-2
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio. seven hitters have faced him. Holmes might
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: do well in this start. He's not really pitching that
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: well right now, but this is one of the easier
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: matchups that he could draw. Chase Burns on the other
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: side has had a good season, obviously. 2.8 ERA, 1.15 whip.
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: He is the more talented of the two pitchers here.
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: He's been really good at home. 2.09 home ERA. So
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: I would rather back him than Holmes early in the game.
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: The problem is, They've only let Burns pitch three innings
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: the last time in each of his last two starts,
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: and we backed him on the show in both of those.
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: First time, I was unaware that they were going to
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: limit him, and he pitched really well anyway. And then
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: they blew it in the bottom of the fifth, all
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: with two outs. Two on-run runs came home.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: That was awesome.
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: Then Burns, we got a push, I think, in the
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: first five his last time. He was a little bit
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: wild last time out. They limited him to three innings
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: again against Milwaukee. He's facing some really... potent offenses here
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: man last four games he's gonna have to face Cubs
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: Dodgers Brewers and now Cubs again but he's been decent
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: throughout all of it he pitched all right against the
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: Cubs on the road last time I think he'll be
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: good for whenever he's in there but he's they're only
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: gonna let him go about three innings here it looks
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: like because the Reds are going nowhere he's their best
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: pitcher they don't want to like hurt him or anything
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: or overwork him So I think you're only going to
• 8:46
  Speaker 5: get about three innings out of him here. He's been
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: pretty good against the Cubs, 30 at-bats, 233 average, 615 OPS.
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: This still looks like probably the way to play. This
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: is still a first five under, but this is not
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: what I really want to do or deal with. The
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: total is 8.5 for the full game, or 9, I guess,
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: at some places. The money is coming in on the under.
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: 71% of tickets on the over, 91% of the cash
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: on the under. And the money is fading the Cubs
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: as well. 79% of tickets, 77% of the cash on
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: the Cubs. The Cubs are at about minus 130 here.
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: I mean, the Cubs, you know you're going to have
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: to pay too much for them because they're the Cubs.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: But Burns is the better pitcher.
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: It's just a matter of, like, if you get three
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: innings out of him, is that going to be enough
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: for Cincinnati to win in the first five here? Because, yeah,
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: I mean, I would lean Cincinnati in the first five here,
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: but you're going to have to deal with their bullpen
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: coming in in the fourth inning probably. So maybe that's
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: a little bit questionable, but I think Cincinnati first five
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: makes sense. I think the first five under does also
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: make sense in this game, which I think my preference
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: would probably be the under in the first.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Five in that one.
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: Either way, I do not want to deal with Cincinnati.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati's bullpen though those would be my thoughts on that
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: one the Cubs you know I mean playing for home
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: field in the wild card thing is like it's not
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: really that much of a motivator I think that type
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: of thing gets overstayed and Kansas City and Pittsburgh. This
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: looks like a huge pitching mismatch here. Dobnock against Skeens. Yeah,
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: I mean, which one of these pitchers is better?
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Skeens, I don't know.
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: He struggled a little bit this year. Pittsburgh played yesterday.
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: They got a big win yesterday against Milwaukee. I mean, Pittsburgh,
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: they're not going anywhere this year, but that was a
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: big win for them. So this could be a letdown
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: spot after that. They also used a lot of bullpen
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: arms in that game yesterday. They used six guys out
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: of the bullpen yesterday. Kansas City also played yesterday, and
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: they were in Houston, and they lost. So Kansas City
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: had some bullpen usage as well, but only three guys.
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: I would avoid both bullpens here. Pittsburgh is the better one.
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: They're number 19. Kansas City is ranked dead last in WIP,
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: but as I keep saying, they're not actually the worst bullpen.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: They're one of the bottom five probably, though.
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: So Pittsburgh is the better bullpen, but because of the
• 11:09
  Speaker 5: unrest that they have, I don't know if there's a
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: better word for that, lack of rest. Yeah, there's no
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: way I would want to deal with either bullpen here
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: unless I was playing the over, which I don't think
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: is actually the right way to go in this game,
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: by the way. Pittsburgh could be more of a letdown spot, though,
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: like I said. So I don't really love the Pittsburgh
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: side as far as the motivation. But it's like, I mean,
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: Skeens is pitching against a pitcher who's not anywhere near
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: as good as his numbers look.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: So, like, I don't think you could really.
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: Play Kansas City here in this one. Although maybe, you know,
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: if you think it's going to be low scoring, which
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: I actually kind of do, maybe there is kind of
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: that argument for backing Kansas City here in the first
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: five and hope they keep it close with Randy Dobnack,
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: who keeps pitching better than people think he's going to. 2.73 ERA, 1.27 whip.
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: That whip has actually gone down. Like it's actually somewhat
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: respectable now, so. I don't think I want to say
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: that I'm wrong about this guy, but I think he
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: is pitching maybe a little bit better than we've given
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: him credit for, at least.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: I will say that. The guy who wears goggles and.
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: Looks cartoonish out there, which is more hilarious because he's
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: from South Park, a.k.a.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: South America. No, South Park, Pennsylvania. I don't know. Did anybody.
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: Dirty Sog, you're the only one here. Did anybody watch
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: the South Park season premiere? I actually kind of enjoyed it, uh,
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: because they're, they're not just having, like, Trump, like, wasn't
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: in it this time, like, South Park has not figured
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: out a way to make Trump funny, even though there's
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: a ton that you can criticize him on, but they
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: just have not been able to do that, but this
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: new episode, like, pretty much had nothing to do with
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: it other than the fact that they were making fun
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: of him naming everything America, but they, they made that
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: really funny, though, I thought, um, So, yeah, I liked
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: the episode.
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: But whatever. Dobnock, oh, yeah, I got to look at
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: his numbers, yeah.
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: He's been actually better on the road, 1.54 road ERA,
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: with a below 200 opponent batting average on the road.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: Don't ask me how he's doing that.
• 13:19
  Speaker 5: He pitched okay last time out against the Red Sox.
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: He was actually good the previous start against Toronto. Prior
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: to that, he really wasn't anywhere near.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: As good as he looked, but his... I mean, he
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: doesn't look that good, to be honest. No offense.
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: He hasn't walked like anybody. He's walked nobody in his
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: last two starts, though. So his walks, which were a
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: concern earlier in the season, he's gotten that number way down.
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is kind of okay. His walk rate
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: is somewhat okay at this point, although he also strikes
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: nobody out. He gets a lot of ground balls, though,
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: which a lot of times that can... get you out
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: of jams, and I still don't think it means you're
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: a good pitcher, but it is one way of doing things,
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: I suppose.
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: He's got a two strikeout walk ratio, which is still
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: not good.
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: 6.1 Ks for nine is still not impressive either, so
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: I'm still not overly impressed by this. However, he is
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: kind of in good form right now, and Pittsburgh is
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: 0 for nine off him. So the three guys that
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: have faced him before in their lineup have not had
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: a hit off him. None of them have reached base either.
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: They only have one strikeout, no walks, but he might
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: actually pitch okay here, even though Pittsburgh's been a very
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: good offense at home, but they're a little.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Bit less good recently.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: And Paul Skeens is on the other side, which, you know,
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: this is a bad year for him with a 3.78
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: ERA and 1.13 whip. He's been a little bit better
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: at home. But his home road splits are actually really insignificant, 3.7
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: home ERA. He was good in his last start at Wrigley.
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: That's not easy to do. That's one of the league's
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: leading offenses, and he went in there and pretty much
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: stifled the Cubs. So Skeen's is in decent form here,
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: except that he's not striking anybody out, although his last
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: two starts were good. But that strikeout rate is kind
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: of concerning that it's not higher.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Because it should be, because he's Skeen's. He is a
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher.
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate on the season still, though.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's not bad either. His strikeout rate is
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: still high on the season, so all those numbers are
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: still good.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: They're just not elite.
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: Like he usually is. Four strikeout walk ratio, 10.3 Ks
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: per nine. Those are still really good numbers. Against the Royals,
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: they have three hitters who have faced him, and they're
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: 0 for 8 often with four strikeouts and one walk.
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: So both pitchers have some unfamiliarity here, too, which might
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: actually help. Both of them, although I'm not sure that
• 15:41
  Speaker 5: Dobnack is really going out there and necessarily fooling guys,
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: but he is getting them to hit into ground balls
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: a lot and stuff. Yeah, I think this game, if
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: you have to, you know, if I have to give
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: you an opinion on this, I think the first five under,
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: that probably is the way to play this game. Obviously,
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: I would avoid both bullpens here, but totals at eight,
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: 57% of tickets on the over, 89% of the cash
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: on the under.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Money is coming in towards the under there. I think
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: I agree with that. Yeah, that's probably what I would do.
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: And the money is fading Pittsburgh here. They're around minus.
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: 190 because of skeins.
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: You're still going to have to pay for skeins. 90%
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: of the tickets, 88% of the cash on them. So
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: the money, professional money, I think is just saying the
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: price is just too high here. Like that's pretty much
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: what it is. And Pittsburgh could be in the letdown spot,
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: like I said. you pretty much know that you're paying
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: a lot. Like when you're fading Kansas City, you're usually
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: going to have to pay a lot. And when you're
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: backing Skeens, you're also going to have to pay a lot.
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: So probably there is at least no value in playing
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh here.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: And if you.
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: Think it's going to be a low scoring game in
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: the first five, that kind of does make an argument
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: for Kansas City, like plus the half run on the
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: run line in the first five.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to do it.
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, Skeens is the better pitcher, so I'm not
• 17:03
  Speaker 5: going to, Recommend backing KC here.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: I think the first five under makes more sense than
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: anything else in that game. Oh, all right. Yeah, that's right.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: I did post about it. Yeah, true. All right. Milwaukee
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: and Baltimore.
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: Both of these teams are in kind of a negative
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: here because Milwaukee played yesterday, although they lost to Pittsburgh.
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: So I don't know if that really sets them up
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: as a bounce back or not. But Kyle Harrison, he's
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: not good on the road, man, at this point. I
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: don't know what else to tell you. I was correct
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: about that game being an over, by the way. I
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: think I was not totally correct. I think I said
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: over in Dodgers Reds as well, and I think that
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: landed right on the total of 10, but whatever. Baltimore's
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: returning home from a road trip, so they do have
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: a rest advantage, but you know I don't like the
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: road trip return.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: They went to Toronto and the Mets.
• 17:51
  Speaker 5: It's not exactly the worst travel leg here, but still,
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: they just swept the Mets. They did have yesterday off,
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: but you know I don't like the return home spot.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: I think it's It tends to be a distraction. You
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: have to get back to home life, whatever.
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: Although Baltimore is still needing to win games to hang
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: on to any hope of getting the last wildcard spot here,
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: which they're in kind of a tight race against Toronto, Cleveland,
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: the White Sox, the Rangers. Although, of course, either Cleveland
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: or the White Sox is going to win their division
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: at this point. So one of those teams will not
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: get a wildcard. The other probably will, though, get the
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: other wildcard.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: But it's still up in the air, man.
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: Houston, I guess, is also in that nicks it's just
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: whoever doesn't win the al west between houston and texas
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: at this point is in contention for a wild card
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: spot as well i still think the uh the central
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: team is going to get it though but baltimore does
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: have motivation here at least and the brewers are good
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: teams so maybe baltimore does kind of get up for
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: that reason uh milwaukee used i believe they use a
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: lot of relief pitchers yesterday if i'm not mistaken and
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: Was that an extra inning game? I was going to
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: say bullpen game. I mean extra inning game.
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: No, it wasn't.
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: There was a lot of bullpen usage in that game yesterday, though.
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. They're
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen, though, normally, but Baltimore's a rested bullpen
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: right now, so that takes away the bullpen advantage a
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: little bit from Milwaukee.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: They're ranked ninth.
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is Baltimore 10th. But Milwaukee still is the better bullpen.
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: I just think it's a little bit closer between the
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: two because of the rest situation here.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Brewers are the better offense. They're number four.
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: Where's Baltimore? Baltimore's not that good. Yeah, they're number 21,
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: tied with Kansas City. Oh, yeah, I forgot to list
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: the hitting out, right? Pittsburgh is number seven in hitting,
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: and Kansas City is number 21.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Anyway, tied with Baltimore. Dustin May.
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: Is pitching for Milwaukee. He is he's been okay this season,
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: I guess. 4.49 ERA, 1.29 whip. He's not good on
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: the road, though. 5.5 road ERA, 284 opponent batting average
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: on the road.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Not good. He was good in his last start against Cincinnati.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: Faced Cincinnati twice in a row. He got 20 runs
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: backing him in that game, though. Yeah, 20.
• 20:13
  Speaker 5: So that was also helpful to him, although he didn't
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: need it because he.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: Pitched really well in that game. But it is Cincinnati.
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: They're pretty terrible offensively at this point. May now is
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: going to face Baltimore, which they're probably at least better
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: than Cincinnati offensively. May was not pitching well prior to that, though,
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: so I'm not going to say he's like totally back
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: in form after that. Maybe he just had one good start,
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: and maybe it was a little bit fluky. I'm leaning
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: kind of against him in this game because he's not
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: good on the road, and he's also not good against Baltimore.
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: They have 25 at-bats against them, which isn't really that much,
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: but the majority of their hitters have faced them. They
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: have a 360 average, 927 OPS against them, 6-1 strikeout
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: walk ratio. Ratio is pretty good, but everything else is
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: not good here. So I don't really think May is
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: actually going to pitch well there. Bad matchup for him.
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: It looks like not a good home road split for
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: him there. Baltimore is going to be going with Cade Povich,
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: it looks like. Although, actually, right now they're undecided, so
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: I actually don't know. It looked like it was going
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: to be Povich. If it is, he's got a 4.05
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: ERA this year. Hasn't pitched that much this year, though.
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: But a 1.44 whip is not very good. If you
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: look at what he's done in his career, he's still young, but...
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: he's definitely struggled throughout his career. Like his career numbers
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: pretty much match what he's put up this year, except
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: that his ERA has been in the fives, which is
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: more accurate based on how bad his whip is.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: He's been really good at.
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: Home this year though, for some reason, 0.71 ERA at home.
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: Although not, I mean, it's a small sample size. His
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: opponent batting average is still not really that good at home.
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: So I'm not ready to say he's actually good. He has,
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: he did pitch in August. He made three appearances in
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: August and, And he didn't give up many runs, but
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: he did put kind of a lot of guys on
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: base via the walk across those three starts. So the
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: Baltimore actually won all three of them. And he actually
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: did pitch.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: Okay in Coors Field the last time he pitched in
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: a major league game.
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's still too high. His walk rate's still
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: too high. His strikeout rate is not really that good either. 1.9
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio this year is bad. 6.8 Ks for
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: nine is also not good. I don't really think I
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: want to trust Povich here. I believe he probably does
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: not have much by way of numbers against Milwaukee. I
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: did look earlier. Milwaukee has two hitters who have faced him.
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: I think probably they were both in the AL at
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: some point. Naylor and Vaughn. Yeah, I think Naylor was
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: on Cleveland, right? I forget about Vaughn, but they're a
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: combined two for five off him. They each have a
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: hit off him. 400 average, 1,000 OPS against him. No strikeouts,
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: no walks.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: Uh, yeah, I mean, my lean in this game would
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: be to play the over.
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, you don't know for sure if Baltimore is
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: using Povich here, but I don't know, man. I mean,
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: I guess you could look back and see like, what
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: did Baltimore do five games ago to kind of get
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: a gauge of what they might do? Uh, they lost
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: that game to Toronto, whatever it was. It was Kyle Braddish, actually,
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: although he's not really that bad. But he's injured right now.
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: He's on the IEL, so it's not going to be
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: Braddish today. So, yeah, whatever Baltimore does here, I don't
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: think is going to.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: Be that good.
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: So, yeah, I think the over is the way I
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: would play this, and the money is agreeing with that.
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: 50% of tickets and cash on the– and 90% of
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: the cash on the over. Eight and a half is
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: the total. I mean, that's pretty reasonable. Baltimore tends to
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: be a little bit more hitter-friendly as well, I think.
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee's favored at about minus 130-something, 81% of tickets, 83%
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: of the cash on them. I don't have a great
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: feel for the side here, man. Like I said, both
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: teams have a certain disadvantage here as far as the
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: way this game sets up. So, yeah, I don't really
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: have a good read on the side. Milwaukee will be
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: a public side, though, and Baltimore probably has extra motivation,
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: although Milwaukee is still trying to get.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: The number one seed there.
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: In the NL, but Baltimore's motivation to try to stay
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: alive is a little bit more, but I don't like
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: the return home spot either at all. So yeah, I
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: still think the over is the way to play it.
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: Although with Baltimore having a rest edge and the return
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: home spot, whatever, sometimes I could throw.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: The hitting off. So that worries me a little bit.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: All right. A's in Cleveland.
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: This, this game, man, this does not look like a
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: good pitching matchup here. Cleveland is coming up a big
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: series against the White Sox, man. The White Sox won
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: yesterday because they beat us, so they're tied with Cleveland again.
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: This is a highly contested division here, man, although currently
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: whichever team is not in first place here is in
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: the last wildcard spot in the AL right now. Still,
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: Cleveland could be in a letdown spot off of games
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: like that, even though they do need to win, but
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: they had a day off yesterday. The A's played yesterday,
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure, so Cleveland has a rest edge here.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: But I don't really love the spot. Could be a
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: letdown spot off of beating the White Sox twice. Those
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: are big games, man.
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: Now, the A's did play yesterday, and they got destroyed
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: by Tampa Bay. Yesterday, they're traveling to Cleveland now from
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay. Not exactly a great situation for the A's.
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: They used five guys out of the bullpen. The A's
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: bullpen is awful. Cleveland's is fairly good. They're number 12.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: The A's are number 28, but they're the worst bullpen.
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: So Cleveland definitely has a better bullpen, plus they're rested
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: on top of that. So Cleveland should have a huge
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: bullpen advantage here. The A's are number 15 offensively. Cleveland
• 25:40
  Speaker 5: is number 29 offensively. cleveland really really bad on offense
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: uh but there might be some offense in this game
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: because the pitching is not good mason barnett is pitching
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: for the a's he's a young guy but he has
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: not put up good numbers this year at all 7.08
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: era 1.62 whip he's been even worse on the road
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: somehow away from that a stadium he has an 8.05
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: road era really bad He's given up five or more
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: runs without even lasting five innings in his last three appearances.
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: The A's have not won any game that he's appeared
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: in since June 25th. He didn't pitch the entire time
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: since then, but. Yeah, obviously that's not a good sign.
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: He has more walks than strikeouts this month and more
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: runs allowed than innings pitch, plus seven home runs allowed
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: this month and 11 innings.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: On top of that. Is that good?
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I would say it's not. And also two of
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: those starts came on the road out of the three.
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's too high. He's given up a ton
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: of home runs. His walk rate's bad. His strikeout rate
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: is somewhat okay, but there's not a lot to like here. 1.6
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio. He also pitched really poorly last year.
• 26:52
  Speaker 5: which was his debut season in the majors. 8.4 Ks
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: per nine is all right, but the rest of these
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: numbers are awful. So I do not trust him whatsoever.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: And also, you know, his road numbers are just terrible.
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: If I could actually spell this, that would help. Barnett against,
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: I hate how ESPN does this. They get rid of
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: the tab, man. Against Cleveland, Cleveland is 0 for 5
• 27:17
  Speaker 5: off him. Only Adele and Lowe have ever faced him. 0-5,
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: two strikeouts, two walks against them, but I wouldn't put
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: much weight into that. I think Barnett is not going
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: to do well here, even though Cleveland's offense is not
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: that good, but they might do well against this guy.
• 27:33
  Speaker 5: Cleveland has Daniel Espino listed as their starter, but he's
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: going to be an opener. He's got all right numbers,
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: but yeah, I mean, he'll go one, two innings at
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: most here probably, and then based on what they did.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Two games ago that he....
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: Second most recent game that he appeared in six days ago,
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: Cleveland used Cantillo for four innings after Espino was.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Out of the game.
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: So I believe that's what Cleveland is going to do here.
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: I believe it is going to be mostly Joey Cantillo
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: in this game. I could be wrong about that, but
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: that looks like how they're setting their pitching up here
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: because the last time he pitched was that day, six
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: days ago, so he would be next in line to pitch.
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: He pitched pretty well in that game against Minnesota. Four
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: really clean innings with a bunch of strikeouts.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Only one hit.
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: Cantillo, he just walks way too many guys, dude. He's
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: got a 3.89 ERA. 1.48 whip is.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Really bad, though. His hit rate's all right. His walk
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: rate is way too high, though. And his strikeout rate
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: is also high.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: But 2.1 strikeout walk ratio and you have a 9.9
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine. Yeah, that tells you the walk rate
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: is way too high, which it is. So he's got
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: to do something about that, man. He's been extremely wild.
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: Last time out, he was pretty good. What is he
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: going to do in this game against the A's?
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: No idea.
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: The A's have three hitters who have faced them. Each
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: of them have a hit off them. They have a
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: 429 average and seven at-bats, 857 OPS, one strikeout, no walks.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: I lean over in this one. I mean, I don't know.
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: It's a little bit difficult to really want to do
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: it with offenses that are like this, like the A's
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: offense is, cooled off quite a bit. Cleveland's offense has
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: been pretty bad all season. I still think that is
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: the approach in this game, though. I think the pitching
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: is just pretty fadable.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: Here in this one.
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: 78% of tickets, 93% of the cash on the over.
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: Looks like maybe there is some money back in the
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: over here. The totals just stayed at eight and a
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: half pretty much the whole time uh which is a
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: reasonable total um like i say it's in in the
• 29:40
  Speaker 5: middle of nowhere there no key number there 94 percent
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: of tickets 88 percent of the cash on cleveland so
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: the money is fading cleveland here even though they have
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: a rest advantage they're at minus 220 or so here
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: i think the feeling is like cleveland with Sort of
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: a bullpen game here. They just shouldn't be favored by
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: this much. And you know you have to pay a
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: little bit extra. Like I said in the KC game,
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: Cleveland has more to play for because they're trying to
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: make the playoffs. That's going to make the price be
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: more expensive on them. Plus the A's get no respect
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: in the market. So whenever you fade them, you're going
• 30:13
  Speaker 5: to have to pay a price as well. I wouldn't
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: want to play the A's in this game, though. I
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: still think the over is really the only way to
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: look at that game. It might not get there, but
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: that's how I see that game. Boston at Tampa Bay
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: on ESPN Unlimited here. Tampa Bay, they're still trying to
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: seal the AL East, which they do have a five-game
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: lead right now with the Yankees. Tampa won yesterday. Yankees
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: did not play, and the Red Sox also won yesterday.
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: Tampa is staying at home. Both teams played yesterday. The
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: Red Sox are traveling from Texas. The Red Sox were
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: able to use their bullpen advantage yesterday and salvage the game.
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: Sonny Gray gave up a bunch of runs really early
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: in the game. Yesterday, he settled down, but the Red
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: Sox were down 3-0 for the majority of that game
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: until they won the game late with a Trevor Story
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: three-run home run, although the Red Sox did have other
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: opportunities to score in that game, and they stranded base
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: runners a lot in that game, so the Red Sox
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: probably should have scored more than they did, but they
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: won the game 4-3 yesterday. Tampa annihilated the A's yesterday, 10-1.
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: Tampa's very good at home, though, man. Not a team
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: I'm really looking to fade at home here. Red Sox,
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: you know, they're almost locked into the number two wildcard
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: spot at this point, so their motivation might not be
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: that strong here. Although it is still Tampa Bay, it
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: is still a big divisional series. Although, you know, as
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: far as being a Red Sox fan and being a
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: Yankee hater, I suppose Tampa winning in this series would
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: not anger me as much as.
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: Any other Red Sox loss really would. Because it's like, well,
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: at least they'll stay ahead of the Yankees if that happens.
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: They also didn't use... I don't know what was going on.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Chapman seems like he's hurt or something. Because they used
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Whitlock for the save yesterday, and he got the save, but... Yeah,
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: Something's going on with Chapman, so I have no idea.
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: Maybe just he's old and they're deciding to rest him.
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: Not Olds. Wyatt Olds is.
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: One of the Red Sox relief pitchers right now. Tampa
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: Bay used four relief pitchers yesterday. The Red Sox have
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen here.
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: They are ranked number one.
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: Red Sox and Yankees are at the top of the
• 32:33
  Speaker 5: bullpen rankings, as it has been for a while. Tampa
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: Bay is ranked fourth, but again, I don't think they're
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: that good because their ERA is above four. So I
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: think they're more of like maybe a top 10 bullpen,
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: but not a top three or four. Boston is number
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: 10 offensively right now. Tampa number six. Tampa probably is
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: the better offense. The Red Sox offense has not been
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: that good recently, man. After they were really hot in
• 32:56
  Speaker 5: like July and into August, they have not been good
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: late August into September. Red Sox are going with Ranier
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: Suarez on the mound here. He's picked it up, and
• 33:07
  Speaker 5: he's been pretty good again in his last couple of starts.
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: He's got a 3.33 ERA, 1.19 whip, so a good
• 33:10
  Speaker 5: season overall. He's been good on the road, 2.95 road ERA.
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: Really good in his last two starts, going 14 innings combined,
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: getting a win in both starts, allowing only one walk
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: with 11 strikeouts.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: That's pretty solid.
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: He was shaky for a while after he came back
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: from that groin injury, and they were kind of ramping
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: up his innings, but he is in good form right.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: Now at least. Although those games were against Baltimore and
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: at home.
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: Against Kansas City, so he wasn't exactly facing the most
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: powerful offenses there, and Tampa is going to be a
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: step up from that. Suarez against Tampa has only been mediocre.
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: They've hit him for a lot of contact, though. They
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: have 37 at-bats against him. They have a. 297 average
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: against him.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: That is high. But the OPS is really not that high. It's.
• 34:01
  Speaker 6: 685.
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: They've just not hit him for power. They have two
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: extra base hits, doubles from Aranda and Mullins, five strikeouts.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: Two walks here.
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: I think Suarez may do okay here, but it's not
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: really the easiest matchup for him. Ian Seymour looks like
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: he's getting the start on the other side for Tampa here.
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: They've been known to use an opener in front of him,
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: although I don't think they've been doing that recently. But
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: I will say that if you're going to play this game,
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: maybe you want to pick Suarez must start, but don't
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: pick a starter for Tampa.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Although I think it will be him.
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: Seymour's got a 4.27 ERA, but his whip is pretty good, 1.14.
• 34:36
  Speaker 5: So I think he's better than his ERA makes him look.
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: He's been good at home, 3.75 home ERA. Low opponent
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: batting average at home as well at 204. He's had
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: double digit strikeouts in two of his last three starts.
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: Not allowing more than 300 runs in any start going
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: all the way back to, or any appearance going all
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: the way back into mid-July basically. So he's been pitching
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: pretty well. He does have a reasonably low hit rate here.
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's low. His strikeout rate is high. Those
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: numbers are pretty strong. 4.4 strikeout walk ratio.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Very good.
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: 11 strikeouts per nine is also really good.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: So I think Seymour might be an undervalued pitcher, man.
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, those are pretty good numbers, although granted some
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: of them were him pitching as a relief pitcher.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have not hit him well at all.
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: In 27 at-bats, they have an 0-74 average against him,
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: 463 OPS, although both of their hits against him are
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: home runs from Willier Abreu, even though that's lefty on lefty,
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: And Jemai Jones, who is usually not in the Red
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: Sox lineup, but he probably will be in this lineup because, uh,
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: he's a righty and he's specifically in there to face
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: left-handed pitchers and he does have a home run off him.
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: So Jones probably will be in the lineup for the
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: Red Sox in this one. Um, I'm going to lean
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: towards Tampa on this one, man.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're good at home. The under might be
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: worth considering as well, but the money actually doesn't.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: Agree with either of those. This is the first market
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: read that doesn't agree with me pretty much. 59% of tickets,
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: 89% of the cash on the Red Sox. It looks
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: like there's some strong market indicators on the Red Sox.
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: I don't really see it, man. I think I'd lean
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: Tampa first five because the Red Sox do have the
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: better bullpen, but I think Seymour is the better pitcher
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: over Suarez in.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: This lefty-on-lefty matchup here. I don't know.
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: He's just a better strikeout pitcher, and he's got better
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers here. I think Seymour just has kind of
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: a higher ceiling, if you will. Tampa's around a minus
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: 130 or so favorite here, plus Tampa is good at home.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have been a good road team too, though.
• 36:46
  Speaker 5: 74% of tickets, 87% of the cash on the over,
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: but the total is seven. I mean, the odds makers
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: are telling you this is going to be a low-scoring
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: game by putting the number at seven, and I tend
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: to agree that I think the under is the better
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: way to look in this game, although both bullpens did
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: see usage yesterday, but they're both pretty good bullpens, and
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: the starters might be good enough to make that happen,
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: so I think those would be my opinions in that game.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia at the Mets, which is on Apple TV.
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: This series started yesterday, and the Mets lost at home 3-0,
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: which I did think the under was sort of.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: In the mix in that game as far as consideration.
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: Nola, I think, pitched well again in that game. And
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: Nolan McLean, I guess, was probably all right as well,
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: but not good enough with no run support behind him.
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: But you know what I usually say? When a team
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: loses in a shutout at home, a lot of times
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: they do a lot better in their next game. So
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: the Mets are in kind of a bounce-back spot here.
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: And even though they're a dead team, this is one
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: of those games that they might actually get up for
• 37:45
  Speaker 5: because they're playing Philadelphia. They at least get a chance
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: to knock Philadelphia into the road side of the wild
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: card matchup they're almost certainly going to be in against
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: the Cubs. Philadelphia also has not decided on a pitcher yet.
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: And if you look at what they did five days ago,
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: they went with a bullpen game. So this looks like
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: it's not a game that Philadelphia is really trying to
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: win necessarily. And people might look at this and think,
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: why are the Mets favored here? Which I keep saying.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: I feel like I'm saying that every day recently. Oh, great.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: We have another.
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: Spammer in the chat that I'm going to have to block.
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: A bot with a woman's profile picture to try to
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: lure you.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: In, man. Anyway, what was I going to say? Now
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: I'm distracted. Fake women distract me, man. Hold on. Right, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: The Mets are favored, which, again, the public is going
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: to look at that and think, how am I getting Philadelphia?
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: The better team is an underdog here, right?
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: It looks way too easy to play Philly, although, again,
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: they did win yesterday. 71% of tickets and cash on Philly,
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: but I would only look towards the Mets in this one, man.
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: The Mets also have the better bullpen. The Mets used
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: two relief pitchers yesterday. It wasn't their better relievers either.
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia used three guys out of their bullpen, including using
• 39:10
  Speaker 5: their closer for the second straight day, Duran.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: So I think he's their closer. So he's not going
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: to be available again.
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: So I think the bullpen situation does favor the Mets
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: here as well. Mets are number seven in bullpen. Phillies
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: are number 18. So the Mets are the better bullpen
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: as well, like I said. Mets are not the better offensive.
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: They're number 25. Philadelphia is not really that good either, though,
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: at number 23. Philadelphia does struggle on the road offensively,
• 39:37
  Speaker 5: and the Mets are going with Zach Thornton here. He's
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: been pretty good. He's a young lefty. He's got a 3.44
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: ERA this year, 1.16 whip. He's been a little bit
• 39:47
  Speaker 5: worse at home, though. 3.8 home ERA, but he's still
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: pitching well overall. He had a good start against the
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: Yankees last time out on the road. That was the
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: only game that the Mets won in that series. He
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: pitched well in that one and bounced back from a
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: bad start against a pretty bad San Francisco offense in
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: the start before that. Thornton, he's pitching well for the
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: most part, dude. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: in every start this season, except for that one against
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: San Francisco and the first start that he had, which
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: I think was his major league debut against Washington. So yeah,
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: Thornton has actually been fairly good overall here.
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: He's got a reasonable hit rate, at least.
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: He doesn't walk, guys, so that's somewhat important. His strikeout
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: rate isn't really that high either, though. But strikeout walk ratio, 3.4,
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: because he does not issue the free passes. 6.7 case
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: per nine, not that good, though, so... Advanced analytics guys
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: will not like him, but he's been good against Philly.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: He did face Philly once, which was way back in June,
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: and he did really well in that start. And that
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: was here at home as well. He went six innings,
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: had seven Ks, one walk, gave up five hits, one run.
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: He pitched really well in that one. Philly has 22
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: at-bats against him, seven strikeouts, one walk. So all of
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: that was mostly that one start there. I mean, it
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: was all that one start.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: 227 average, 579 OPS. So Thornton does have good numbers.
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: The only thing is, Will Philly, because they're more familiar
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: with him after seeing him, but it was way back
• 41:20
  Speaker 5: in June, so it wasn't like it was that recent.
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: Thornton had the unfamiliarity edge in that one, right? Like
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: these young pitchers, as I always say, if they're good,
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: I think they have an advantage against the hitters when
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: they're unfamiliar to them. Now Thornton doesn't really have that anymore,
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: but because that was long enough ago, and maybe he
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: just matches up well against Philly.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: Maybe he will do well here.
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: I think he'll at least do well enough to beat
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: whatever the hell Philly is doing with a bullpen situation here.
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: So I would play the Mets if I was going
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: to play this one. Moneyline, Mets, full game. I think
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: they have the bullpen edge there as well, like I said.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: That's how I would play that one.
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: Detroit at Chicago, we did lose with Detroit yesterday, even though,
• 42:03
  Speaker 5: like I said, they out-hit Chicago in the game.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: 8-5, yeah, like I said, it was something like that.
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: Chicago scored all three of their runs in the first inning,
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: never scored again, but Detroit's offense could never catch up,
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: even though Fedde was just kind of okay, but then
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: the bullpen held Detroit off, man.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you.
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: Frambois Valdez was not exactly good in the game, but,
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know. Debatably, he was good enough
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: for Detroit to actually win that game if they could
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: have done anything on offense.
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: So, you know, I'm not.
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: Too happy about that, but whatever. Detroit used two relief
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday. The White Sox used three. These bullpens are
• 42:40
  Speaker 5: actually pretty closely matched. Detroit's number 13. Chicago's number 15.
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: White Sox have a little bit of a better bullpen ERA.
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: As far as the hitting, the White Sox are better.
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: They're number 11, tied with Atlanta and the Yankees. Detroit is,
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: where are they at? Number 18, tied with San Diego.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: Both of those teams have been.
• 43:02
  Speaker 5: Moving up a little bit again offensively recently, I think.
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: Detroit is going with Andrew Sears, whoever the hell he is.
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: So this is actually going to be a battle of
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: young pitchers, and you've got to figure out which one
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: is better than the other, and I think I know
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: the answer to that question. which is pretty obvious if
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: you look at their numbers. Sears has a 5.4 ERA, 1.38 whip.
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: That's not that good, obviously, although his whip may be
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: indicative of his ERA.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: Maybe he should be a little bit better than that.
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: He's not good on the road, really.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: 5.59 road ERA, although his opponent batting average is actually
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: a little bit better on the road, but he's only
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: made four starts so far, and it has not gone
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: well in what is his, or four appearances, two.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: Starts, excuse me.
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: I'm assuming both starts were the most recent two, but
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure about that. But he's only gone five
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: innings once out of all of those appearances. He has
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: more than one hit allowed per inning, which is not good.
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's all right. His strikeout rate is all right.
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: So I think Sears, you know, maybe he's got something here,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: but it hasn't really.
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: Gone that well for him so far. Although 3.3 strikeout
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: walk ratio is all right. Seven strikeouts per nine is
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: not really that good. Sears has never been seen before
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: by the White Sox. So he does have that unfamiliarity there,
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: which might give him a slight advantage. But Sears does
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: not pitch well, so I don't think he's going to
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: pitch that well. I think the better pitcher here is
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: David Sandlin, who's pitching for the White Sox. I think
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: he was a more highly touted prospect as well, because
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: I kind of remember hearing his name. And in fact,
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't he one of
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: the prospects the Red Sox traded?
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Was he in the crochet trade, I want to say?
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Now I want to look that up. Hold on. David Sandlin.
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: He was traded to the White Sox. No, that was
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: a different trade, but I was right. He was traded
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: from the Red Sox, though.
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: With Hicks over to the Red Sox, who the Red
• 45:04
  Speaker 5: Sox got in that Devers trade.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: It looks like the Red Sox got some.
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: Young relief pitcher Gage Zeal, not Gage Jump, who has
• 45:17
  Speaker 5: not made a major league appearance yet, I don't think.
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: And there's another player the Red Sox are going to
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: get to be named later as far as that trade.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 45:25
  Speaker 5: It looks like Sandlin might actually not be that bad.
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: He's got a 5.64 ERA, but a 1.19 whip is
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: not too bad. That definitely indicates his ERA should be
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: lower than it is. He's definitely had some bad starts
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: in here, but I think he's been more good than bad.
• 45:39
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's all right. His walk rate is not
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: too bad. His strikeout rate is all right. He was
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: good last time out at St.
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: Louis.
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: Had a nice 5-2 third inning shutout with no walks
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: in that one.
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: Five strikeouts. That's good. Two of his last three appearances
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: have been pretty good. He's got a 2.4 strikeout walk ratio, though,
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: which is still not really good. Great.
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: 8.6 Ks per nine is all right. But yeah, I
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: think he's a decent pitcher, man. The Tigers have never
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: seen him before. So he does have that unfamiliarity there.
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: Looking at both these pitchers, yeah, I think the White
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: Sox are probably the right side in this one. I
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: think Sandlin is better than Sears. So that's basically my
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: handicap in this one. And the money seems to agree
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: with this one too. 66% of tickets, 95% of the
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: cash on the White Sox. They're about minus 130 here.
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: I don't know if you could really say that one
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: bullpen has an advantage.
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: Over the other. So maybe a first five play makes
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: the most sense.
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: And it's like, just pick which of these two young
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: starters is actually the better one, which I think. It
• 46:44
  Speaker 5: is definitely Sandlin, in my opinion, at this point, and
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: the money seems to agree with that. So maybe White
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: Sox first five is the way to play this game.
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: If the money line is a little bit too much,
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: you could lay the half run, I guess. The money's
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: also coming in on the over in this game, over
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: the eight and a half. I guess I could see
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: that if you don't fully trust both these young starters here.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: I don't have a great gauge on the total in
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: that one. My lean in that one would be the
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: White Sox. Garrett, what's up, man? Thanks for hanging out.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: Almost just in time because Atlanta is two games ahead
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: here right now. I mean, they're the next game we're
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: going to talk about after Toronto and Texas. Toronto has
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: a rest edge here. Toronto did not play yesterday. Texas
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: lost to the Red Sox yesterday.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: Texas, they used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday, man,
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: and their bullpen is already worse than Toronto's. But they
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: used six relief pitchers yesterday.
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: It was a bullpen game for Texas yesterday, so that
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: is not a good sign.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: For texas here so.
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: I think toronto has a pretty big bullpen advantage here
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: plus they have the rest edge because they did not
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: play yesterday both teams are going to be heavily motivated
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: though because they're both in the wild card race right
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: now so this is a wild card battle here toronto
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: is coming up beating detroit in their last game day
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: off starting a road trip though i like the spot
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: better for toronto with the rest edge plus extra focus
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: perhaps starting the road trip And they got Dylan Cease
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: on the mound. So I think that is a good thing.
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: I was very close to back in Toronto in this game. Actually,
• 48:18
  Speaker 5: it's just, I don't exactly.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: Love the price.
• 48:21
  Speaker 5: And I actually think that Texas' starter in this game
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: actually is not that bad in this matchup, at least.
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: Dylan Cease has been very good this year, though.
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: 2.38 ERA, 1.06 whip. He's been really good on the road. 1.89
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: road ERA with a really ridiculous 1.57 ERA.
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: Opponent batting average on the road this guy is pretty
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: much unhittable his only problem is he walks too many
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: guys but he pretty much gets away with it because
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: he strikes out so many guys and allows so few
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: hits that's what I always say although He is kind
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: of back to his old ways here, though, where he's
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: walking too many guys, and he's not going that deep
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: into some of his starts here, but he's been better
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: with that with Toronto this year, though.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: He's got a really low hit rate.
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is too high, but he has an
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: enormous strikeout rate as well, though. 3.3 strikeout walk ratio,
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: even given how many walks he issues. He's got a 12.8
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine. That's really good, and Cease is going
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: to be pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment here in Texas.
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: His numbers against Texas, though, they're not as good as
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: you would think.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: They're kind of mediocre. In 84 at-bats, 31 strikeouts, 11 walks.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: So that ratio is not great.
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: 262 opponent batting average, 740 OPS.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: You'd think those numbers would be better than they are.
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: I mean, I still think Seas should pitch well here,
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: but those numbers are a little bit questionable there against Texas.
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: So I'm going to hold off on this game, even
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: though I like Toronto in this game for the most part,
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: but I think I'm going to.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Leave it alone.
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: And Texas is going with Kumar Rocker in this one,
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: even though ESPN has it as undecided. I looked back
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: five days ago, and Rocker pitched that game, so.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: He's next up in line. Oh, and what do you know?
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: He's listed on the board now, so I was correct.
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: It is going to be Rocker in this game for Texas.
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: So it's going to be a battle of Georgia starters here.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: Rocker, I mean, he's not that good, obviously. Cease is
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: obviously the better pitcher. Rocker, 4.54 ERA, 1.43 whip.
• 50:22
  Speaker 5: He has not been good at home. 5.02 home ERA.
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know what the deal is. He's allowed a
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: bunch of home runs at home.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know, man.
• 50:31
  Speaker 5: It makes no sense because Texas has a pitcher-friendly park,
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: but that is the case. Rocker has not gone deep
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: into his recent outings here. I think he's maybe not
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: started all of them, or they might have put an
• 50:42
  Speaker 5: opener in front of him. That's one thing to be
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: aware of if you're going to play this game. I
• 50:46
  Speaker 5: would pick Cease must start, but don't pick a starter
• 50:48
  Speaker 5: for Texas because they may put an opener in front
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: of Rocker, but I do think he is going to
• 50:53
  Speaker 5: pitch in this game for probably somewhere around at least
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: four innings here.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is too high, though. His walk rate's
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: too high. His strikeout rate is just okay, but his
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: walk rate's high enough that his strikeout walk ratio, 2.3,
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: not good. 8.6 strikeout per nine is not really that bad, though.
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: Rocker against Toronto. This is where, you know, it kind
• 51:15
  Speaker 5: of counters wanting to back Toronto here because Rocker has
• 51:18
  Speaker 5: actually been good against them in 23 at-bats. They have
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: a 174 average against them, 414 OPS, 6-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: So this is at least a good matchup for Rocker.
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: I still like Toronto in this one though.
• 51:33
  Speaker 5: Cause they got the rest edge and it would be
• 51:35
  Speaker 5: a full game play because you want their bullpen here.
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: Cause Texas, their bullpen has been bad this year, which
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: I forgot to look at that as far as the rankings.
• 51:43
  Speaker 5: But yeah, Texas is number 20 in bullpen and Toronto
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: more rested as well. And ranked, where are they at?
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: They're ranked 17th, but their ERA is like almost a
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: run better than Texas.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: Not really. It's like more than a half run better though.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: So yeah.
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: Um, Toronto definitely has a bullpen edge in this game.
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: Toronto's not a good offense, though, number 27, although Texas,
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: you know, I don't think their offense is that good
• 52:09
  Speaker 5: at number 17. But yeah, I like Toronto in this one,
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: and I think the under is probably sort of in
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: consideration here, but I think you'd have to make it
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: a first five play. I think the better play is
• 52:20
  Speaker 5: to just take Toronto, though, because I think they have
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: the better starter on the mound, plus the rest edge,
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: plus the bullpen edge here. Even though I know the
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: matchup number's or actually in favor of Rocker here, but
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: I still think Cease has the ability to out-pitch him, though.
• 52:35
  Speaker 5: 81% of the tickets, 89% of the cash on Toronto.
• 52:39
  Speaker 5: They're around minus 140, though, on the money line, but
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: I still think that is the right way to play
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: this game, is to play Toronto on the money line.
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: Although with Cease, you know you're having to pay a
• 52:47
  Speaker 5: little bit too much whenever you try to back Cease, though,
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: so I don't exactly love that price.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: Money's also coming in on the over pretty strongly, over 7.5.
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: But 7.5, the oddsmakers are telling you they think it's
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: going to be a low-scoring game. I'm not saying every
• 53:03
  Speaker 5: low-scoring game goes under, but I think a higher percentage
• 53:07
  Speaker 5: of games with a low total like this go under
• 53:09
  Speaker 5: than go over because the oddsmakers know what they're doing.
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: And I think this looks like an under as well,
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: but I would make it first five only, like I said,
• 53:16
  Speaker 5: because I would not want to deal with Texas' bullpen here.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: So....
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: First five under I think makes some sense, although you'd
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: be looking at a three and a half probably. Atlanta
• 53:27
  Speaker 5: at Houston. Houston played yesterday, but they're staying at home.
• 53:31
  Speaker 5: They beat the Royals, kind of an easy win there.
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: Houston has more to play for here because they're in
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: a tight battle for the AL West here and or
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: trying to at least get a wild card. Whereas Atlanta, yeah,
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: they're trying to hang on to their division. Atlanta was
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: off yesterday, I'm pretty sure. They played the Cubs yesterday.
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: Prior to that. So Atlanta does have a rest advantage here,
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: but I think the Astros do have the motivational edge here. Atlanta,
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: you know, they just have more of a padding here
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: as far as their divisional lead here.
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: Starting pitching, though, this is hard to figure out, actually,
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: with the starting pitching here. Atlanta will have the better bullpen, though,
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: plus they're rested.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: So Atlanta used nobody yesterday out of their already better bullpen.
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: Houston used four relief pitchers, so Atlanta does have the
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: edge there. They're number three in bullpen, and that's about accurate.
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: Houston's number 11. Probably that's somewhat accurate as well. Atlanta
• 54:26
  Speaker 5: has Tyler Molle pitching for them. Not a great season
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: for him overall, but he's been way better since being
• 54:32
  Speaker 5: traded to Atlanta. He's got his ERA down to 3.91.
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: His WIP is 1.25. Now, those numbers have gotten way
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: better with Atlanta, but he has been bad on the
• 54:42
  Speaker 5: road generally this year, 5.61%. roadie array however to counter
• 54:47
  Speaker 5: that he's made two road starts with atlanta and those
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: were both good against minnesota and philly and in fact
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: he has not had a bad start with them um
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: he's gone at least five innings in every single one
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: he's got at least six in all but one of
• 54:59
  Speaker 5: them and he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in
• 55:01
  Speaker 5: all of them so he's pitching way better since coming
• 55:04
  Speaker 5: over to atlanta um good move for atlanta to be
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: honest that was a good trade for them because they
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: need somebody in this rotation, you know what I mean,
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: to bolster it going into the playoffs here. Because one
• 55:17
  Speaker 5: of Atlanta's biggest weak points is they're starting pitching.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: It's like they basically have nobody else after Chris Sale.
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: Molly has a decent hit rate on the season at
• 55:29
  Speaker 5: this point. His walk rate's not too bad either at
• 55:31
  Speaker 5: this point. His strikeout rate is all right. So, yeah,
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: he's really turned his season around with Atlanta. He's got
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: a three strikeout walk ratio on the season, but it's 6.3
• 55:39
  Speaker 5: with Atlanta. So, yeah, he's been a different pitcher with them.
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: An 8.3 strikeout per nine on the season. His strikeout
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: per nine has kind of remained the same with both teams.
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: Molly against Houston is who we're playing, right?
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: He's been good against them in 57 at-bats, 175 average allowed,
• 56:00
  Speaker 5: 459 OPS, 13-7 strikeout walk ratio. That ratio is not good,
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: but the rest of these numbers are good. So I
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: think Molly is actually probably going to pitch well here.
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: That would be the indication here, man, with good form and, yeah,
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: good matchup numbers here. Peter Lambert is on the other
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: side for Houston. He seems to have kind of fallen
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: off a little bit. He's still had a pretty good
• 56:23
  Speaker 5: season overall, though, and it's been his only good season
• 56:26
  Speaker 5: of his career. 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WIP, but those numbers
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: have gotten worse recently. He's also not really as good
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: at home, 4.03 home ERA. But his last couple of
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: starts were good again after he really struggled in August.
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: But he bounced back nicely. His last two starts, he's
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: had 10 strikeouts, no walks. He's allowed three runs apiece,
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: two quality starts, six and seven innings in those against
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay on the road and against Arizona. So, you know,
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: I mean, Arizona, you know, not the greatest offense, but
• 56:57
  Speaker 5: on the road against Tampa Bay, that's definitely pretty difficult.
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: So Lambert.
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: I was worried about maybe his innings count getting too
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: high because he hasn't really done that before, but he's
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: pitched pretty well over his last two starts here. He's
• 57:10
  Speaker 5: got a low hit rate. His walk rate is a
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: little bit high. His strikeout rate is pretty good as well, though. 2.5
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio, kind of mediocre there because the walks
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: have been his main issue here. 8.7 strikeout per nine
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: is all right.
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: Lambert against Atlanta. Atlanta has the slight upper hand against them.
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: These numbers are pretty average, and 42 at-bats, 262 average allowed,
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: 755 OPS, 8-4 strikeout walk ratio.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: What do we do with this one, man? I don't know.
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is public. The public's going to want Atlanta here
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: because it's almost a pick-the-winner type of price here.
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: They're in the minus-120 range here. 63% of the tickets
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: and cash on them. Houston's got more to play for,
• 57:56
  Speaker 5: but Atlanta has the better bullpen. I think Atlanta does
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: have the better starter on the mound here at this point.
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: Matches up a little bit better. And Atlanta has the
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: bullpen edge here along with the rest edge. So I
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: think I would probably lean to Atlanta. That was kind
• 58:10
  Speaker 5: of my initial instinct on this game. I don't want
• 58:13
  Speaker 5: to do it, but I think that's the way I
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: would lean. The money's also bagging the over in this game.
• 58:18
  Speaker 5: Over 8.5, I don't really see that. I mean, to me,
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching matchup makes this look like more of
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: an under matchup. game to me I think I would
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: lean under slightly in this game possibly still full game
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: because I don't think either bullpen is really bad so
• 58:31
  Speaker 5: like I mean Atlanta's is obviously not uh so yeah
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: those would be my opinions in that game I think
• 58:37
  Speaker 5: the best lean in that game is towards Atlanta but
• 58:39
  Speaker 5: I think I would have a slight opinion on the
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: under as well but neither opinion strong like I said
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: I don't have strong opinions today really I only have
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: one play yeah Molly good pickup for Atlanta I still
• 58:50
  Speaker 5: don't think he's that good but he's been good with
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: Atlanta Better than their other options that they have there.
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 58:59
  Speaker 5: I'm going to have to take a break at some
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: point here. I'll do Seattle and Colorado next. uh Colorado
• 59:06
  Speaker 5: played yesterday they're staying at home I think right yeah
• 59:09
  Speaker 5: they lost to San Diego again yesterday so San Diego
• 59:13
  Speaker 5: uh four games up on Arizona now San Diego looking
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: pretty good in that wild card position right now I
• 59:19
  Speaker 5: don't want to jinx it especially not uh for Clint
• 59:22
  Speaker 5: because I know Clint is a uh huge san diego
• 59:26
  Speaker 5: fans so uh i am i'm rooting for his team
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: man i'm rooting for them to make the playoffs so
• 59:32
  Speaker 5: um because you know i don't really have a um
• 59:35
  Speaker 5: a dog in that race a dog in that race
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: a horse in that race whatever we used to have
• 59:41
  Speaker 5: dog racing up here the greyhounds man kind of like
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: the simpsons we used to have that um outside of
• 59:46
  Speaker 5: boston it's suffolk downs man they stopped it though for
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: animal cruelty um But no, I like dogs, man. I'm
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: not a fan of dog racing. Anyway, horse racing, of course,
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: I do talk about on the show, though. But horses
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: are built to do that, you know what I mean?
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: And I guess some dogs are kind of built to
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 5: be running dogs like that, but it's still, I don't know,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 5: it's kind of weird, like white trash shit.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: I don't like the way the dogs are treated.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: At least the horse racing, you got a lot of
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: rich owners that probably treat their... I'm blocking this... Chauncey DiPinto,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: I'm blocking you. Get out of my fucking chat. Hey,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 5: at least I'm popular enough to get the spammers now, man.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Time to block, baby. Block all the bots.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: Block all the crypto bots. There you go. I'm done
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: with all of you, man. Every day we get one now,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: so there you go.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: Bot of the day. Crypto bot of the day. Chauncey DiPinto, congratulations.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: All right. Anyway, Colorado staying at home. Seattle was off yesterday.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: Seattle is pretty much dead here.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: I don't think they're not making the playoffs at this point.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: Will they be able to win this game, though? How
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: motivated will they be?
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Seattle finally ended their last losing streak
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: with a win against the Angels to finish that series.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: So at least they kind of have momentum, I guess,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: coming into Colorado here. I don't know, man. I don't know.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: Colorado's bullpen is ass, as we know. They used four
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: Seattle's bullpen has been bad this year, but not as
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 5: bad as Colorado's, and Seattle's at least rested as well.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: Colorado number 27, Seattle number 21 in bullpen, but Seattle
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: does have the edge there. Colorado's the better offense. They're
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 5: number five. Seattle's number 28. Seattle's been very bad offensively.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: That's really been the reason why they've been so bad
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 5: this year is primarily the offense. being way too bad
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 5: this year Brian Wu was on the mound for Seattle
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: though I still think he's their best pitcher um like
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 5: borderline elite pitcher the last couple years this year not
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: quite so much but 3.88 ERA 1.05 whip is definitely
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 5: good uh he's not good on the road this year
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: though 5.23 road ERA which will give me a little
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: bit of pause however He's been good on the road
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: for a while now, man. So you could say, yeah,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 5: his numbers are way worse on the road. But his last,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 5: let's see, how many road starts has he had in
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 5: a row that have been good?
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: Four.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: Four. So since the beginning of August, he turned it around.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: He's been good on the road.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: And these were not easy matchups either against the Yankees, Houston,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 5: Red Sox, and at the A's stadium last time out,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: which we know is a very hitter-friendly ballpark, just like
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: Coors Field is here.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: Good sign that Wu had a six-inning shutout in that one, man.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: Or a six-inning appearance with no earned runs allowed. He
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: allowed one unearned run in that one. So Wu, he's
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: on the right track, man.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's pitching really well right now, except for
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: One odd fluke bad start at home against Philly, but
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: other than that, he's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 5: in all of his starts since the beginning of August.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 5: All of his road starts have been good, and they
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: weren't really easy road starts either, so I think Wu
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 5: has definitely.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: Kind of regained form here.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate on the season. He
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: doesn't really walk anybody either. His strikeout rate is fairly
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: high as well, so all those numbers are good. 4.7
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio, strong. Not as good as what he's
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 5: done the last couple of years, but still good. Nine
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine is about what he usually gets you.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 5: Wu against Colorado. Not much of a history here. They
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 5: only have two hitters to have faced, McCarthy and Moniak,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: and they've combined for a.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: 286 average and.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: 929 OPS against him, which seems bad, but it's all Moniak.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: Moniak has all of the hits off him, and also
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 5: all the strikeouts, all three, and no walks here for
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 5: either hitter.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: But I still think Wu.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 5: is more likely to pitch well here, given that he
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 5: looked good in a hitter-friendly stadium last time out. He
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 5: looks to be in good form right now. Most of
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 5: the Rockies lineup is unfamiliar with him, and He can
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: deal with one hitter that does damage off him, you know.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 5: So I think Wu should pitch well here. Gabriel Hughes
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 5: is on the other side. He is the lesser pitcher.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 5: There's no doubt about that. 6.37 ERA, 1.45 whip pitching
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: for Colorado. Although, very strangely, he's actually been kind of
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 5: good at home. 3.81 home ERA. I don't know how
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 5: he's pitched as well as he has in Coors Field,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 5: but that's the case. Way lower opponent batting average at
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 5: home as well at 229. He's coming off a bad
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: road start, but good for him. He's back at home here, man. Although, generally,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 5: I would say he has not pitched well, though. Although, yeah,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man. I mean, the majority of his
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 5: home starts have been good, though. So, I don't know
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: what to do with this guy. His hit rate's too high.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's too high. His strikeout rate is not
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 5: really great. None of those numbers are good.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, 7.6 Ks per nine. None of
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: that is good. So, I don't know. Small sample size.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: Maybe his home numbers are a little bit of a
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: fluke here. He is not too fly ball heavy, though. Woo,
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: by the way, is fly ball heavy, but I don't know.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: He's just a good enough pitcher that it doesn't really
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: seem to matter that much. Woo, I'm talking about.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 5: Hughes looks like he's a little bit less fly ball heavy,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 5: which I think has definitely helped him in this stadium,
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 5: but will it be enough here against Seattle?
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. Seattle, I doubt they've faced them before. No,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: they have not.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 5: I looked at this earlier anyway, so Hughes does have
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 5: unfamiliarity against them, but.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't really see Seattle losing this one,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: but you never know because how motivated are they going
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: to be? Woo, you know, has still been generally bad
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: on the road this year, so I don't know. 92%
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: of tickets, 94% of the cash on Seattle. They're definitely
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 5: a public side. Minus 180-something on the money line here.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 5: It is a hefty price delay, man. Colorado gets no
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 5: respect here. Colorado looks like they might switch their pitcher,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 5: by the way. I don't think it really matters. Whoever
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 5: Colorado puts out there, I don't think it's going to
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: be that good. Money is also kind of backing the
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: over here, over the 10.5 as well.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good read on this, man.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: To me, it seems like Seattle does have the edge
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 5: in this game throughout all the pitching in this game
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: and should win if they're trying to win here. So
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 5: that's what I would say about this game. And maybe
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: Seattle's offense can do something in a ballpark like this.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 5: Although they just lost against the A's again, so who knows, man.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I think If you're going to play it,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 5: I think maybe making like a minus one Seattle run
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: line or something is the right approach, but it is
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: not one that would even be close to making the
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 5: cut for me.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: West Virginia still does dog racing.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 5: Man, it doesn't surprise me. Western Mass might still have
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 5: it too. That's more of a white trash type of
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 5: environment there.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: All right, I'm going to be right back. Then we'll
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: talk about the rest of these games.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what my strongest lean is that
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 5: I even have so far today, man. I mean, I
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: didn't love most of these games enough.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: You know, I mean, I think maybe like the Milwaukee
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: Baltimore over, I think probably out of all the games
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 5: I've talked about, I think maybe that one is the
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 5: strongest that.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: I've talked about so far.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 5: I don't love these games, man. But I'm going to
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: come back, and the next game we're going to talk
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 5: about is my play. And you're probably going to know
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: what it is because I think we have a pitching
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: edge in this game.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: So it is going to be a side in that one.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 5: We were on an 0-7 run over the last two
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: days after tonight.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5. I don't
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: anything like this, man. With the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all, 0-4. I just have
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: not had a good season, man, with weekends. Slumped. Then
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: I'm on and the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins. March 8th?
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 5: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 5: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 5: you about this anymore.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 5: point other than potentially.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: End it all. uh i mean i said i like
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: toronto but i don't know i mean the pitching matchup
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: stats don't even favor them in that game so i
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: don't know i mean i you saw my breakdown on
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: that game i don't love the price on it either
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: um Plus, both teams are going to be motivated in
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: that one. Let me see.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 5: This next game is my only play of the day.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: Washington and St.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: Louis.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: Neither team really has anything to play for.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 5: I think we have a starting pitching edge in this
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 5: game that's somewhat significant, so this is going to be
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 5: Washington first five here. We're going to back Cade Cavalli again.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: In this one. We get a pretty cheap price on this.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 5: Washington is favored in the first five, though, whereas they're
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: actually an underdog in the full game, and there's a
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 5: reason for that. Washington's bullpen is total trash, so we're
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: counting the bullpen out here, obviously, even though St. Louis'
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 5: isn't really that good either, but Focusing on the starting pitching,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 5: there's a reason why Washington's favored in the first five.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: Oddsmakers are telling you that's where they have the edge.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 5: I agree with that. That's what I'm doing in this one.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 5: I believe both of these teams were off yesterday.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: St. Louis is staying at home.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: Washington is traveling in from, where the hell were they?
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 5: home so they're starting a road trip and they're coming
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 5: off a being shut out at home so I do
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 5: like that too you know I like like I said
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 5: the Phillies have actually beaten two teams in a row
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: 3-0 on the road so that kind of confused me
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 5: for a second there but I like playing on teams
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 5: after they get shut out at home even though Washington
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 5: did lose a four game win streak and sometimes losing
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 5: a win streak will hang you over but I like
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 5: the spot here I like focus when you start a
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 5: road trip usually you want to get the road trip
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 5: off on the right foot even if you know you're
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 5: not going anywhere this year And I like teams to
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 5: bounce back after they get shut out at home, especially
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 5: a good offense like Washington. So that's where I'm looking
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 5: in this one. We're counting out their bullpen because they suck.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 5: They're number 26. I think they're probably like the second
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 5: worst bullpen. That bullpen is very bad. So I want
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 5: nothing to do with them.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: Although St.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 5: Louis's is not good either at number 23, but Washington's
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 5: is even worse. So no thank you with that. Washington's offense, however,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 5: number three, So we have the better offense here.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 6: St.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 5: Louis has not been good at number 26 offensively. This
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 5: is a pitcher-friendly ballpark here. And I'm going to back
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 5: the better pitcher, Cade Cavalli, who I think still is
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 5: kind of under the radar here, man. But he's really
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 5: pitched well over the last month plus. He's got his
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 5: ERA down to 3.12 on the season, 1.17 whip.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: This guy, I said he was legit.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 5: I think before people really realized it, he's also been
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 5: even better on the road, 2.95 road ERA.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: He's given up three or fewer earned runs in every
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: start since when? I mean, this goes back all the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: way to early June at this point. Yeah. That's pretty good.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 5: Washington's also won six of his last seven starts. They've
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 5: also won nine of his last 11 starts. So they're
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 5: winning behind him. He's striking out a lot of guys.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: He's gotten his walk rate down recently as well. He's
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 5: pitching well overall. I mean, there's nothing else to say, really.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 5: He's in really good form right now. He's allowed two
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: or fewer earned runs in his last six starts. and
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 5: his team has won.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: Most of those.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 5: He's got a pretty low hit rate at this point.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's not bad either. His strikeout rate is high.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 5: He gets a lot of ground balls too, so kind
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 5: of the best of everything here. Four strikeout walk ratios, good. 10.6
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine, also good. He'll be pitching in a
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 5: pitcher-friendly ballpark here against St. Louis, who has not a
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 5: very good offense, and he's got decent numbers against them.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: Most of the hitters have faced him. It's not a
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: huge sample, 16 at-bats.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 5: They have no extra base hits against them, a 250 average,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 5: 650 OPS, three strikeouts, four walks. I mean, that ratio's
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 5: not good, but Cavalli's in good form, man. I mean,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: what else do I have to say? Like, I think
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: he should do well in a matchup like this.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know, has he faced St. Louis this year even?
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: I don't even think he has. No, he did. He
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: faced St. Louis really early in the season. That's where
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: all those numbers came from, actually.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 5: That was way back in April, and he wasn't really
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 5: in total form yet, and he still was all right
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 5: in that start.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: And that was at home. The walks were really the
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: only issue in that start. So I guess whatever. But
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: he seems like he's gotten that under control.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 5: And we're going to fade Kyle Leahy here. Even though
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 5: Leahy kind of came around and was pitching better for
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 5: a while. But his whip tells you that he's not
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 5: that good.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: He's got a 3.33 ERA. That is fairly good. But
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: a 1.31 whip is.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: Not in line with that. That indicates his ERA should
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 5: be at least a run higher probably. He's been pretty
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 5: good at home. 2.79 home ERA. So I know I'm
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 5: fading him even though he's in a good home road
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: split here. Leahy was good in his last outing, but
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 5: he only went three innings, man. Three shutout innings against
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 5: the White Sox. So I don't know if Leahy's going
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 5: to last the full five here, man.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: And in fact, he's gone three or less in his
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: last three outings. So he's not really... going deep right now.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: He's not in good form right now.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 5: It looks like they're kind of limiting him at this point,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 5: so I think Cavalli has a clear edge over this.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: Plus, you might get some St.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 5: Louis relief arms in this game, and the hope is
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 5: that Cavalli's going to be in there for the first
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 5: five at least, which.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: should happen.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 5: Because you know you've seen that he's been in his
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 5: games for longer than that like every single time recently
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 5: hopefully that continues to happen so the hope is.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: That maybe even Leahy will be out of the game
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: and St.
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 5: Louis's bullpen will come in that early too and we'll
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 5: get to face some of them a year or two
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 5: in the first five so if you think that's a
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 5: possibility and you want to go full game on this
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 5: and get Washington as a little bit of an underdog,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 5: I guess you could, but their bullpen could really kill you, man.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 5: Leahy's hit rate is above one per inning.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is fine. His strikeout rate is fine
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 5: as well, so those numbers are all right. 3.4 strikeout
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 5: walk ratio and 8.5 case per nine, but I think
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 5: it's pretty clear who the better pitcher is here in
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 5: this one. And Lay's numbers, there really aren't much against Washington.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 5: They have four hitters to face and four at-bats. There's
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 5: only one hit here. A double from Abrams. There's one walk,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 5: one strikeout. 250 average, 900 OPS, but there's no real
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 5: takeaway here. It's a small sample. The bigger sample is
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 5: the Cavalli one. But yeah, we're going to back Washington,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 5: first five. It's my only play today. And the money
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 5: was definitely agreeing with me before. It looks like it
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 5: still is. 58% of tickets on St.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: Louis. The public wants St. Louis.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 5: Don't ask me why. Doesn't even make sense, but whatever.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: 60% of the cash on Washington, though. Full game total,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 5: seven and a half. Money slightly indicating towards the over,
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 5: I guess, but it's a public over as well. I mean,
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 5: the over probably makes sense here because you're looking at
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 5: I think one starter that's not very good, plus the
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 5: bullpens are pretty bad.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: So the over makes.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 5: Some sense in that game, I guess. But you know
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 5: what my play is. Washington first five, man. Back in
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 5: Cade Cavalli. He's the new Foster Griffin, man.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: New and improved.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 5: He's better than Foster Griffin. Minnesota at Anaheim next up.
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 5: We got the nice escape with that win. Yeah, that
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 5: was a ridiculous game, man. Go back and watch the
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 5: top of the show for my rant about that game.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 5: But man, we got the win with Anaheim. Should have
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 5: been way easier.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: Unbelievable how they blew that game. And then they still
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: gave us the... Yeah, there it is.
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 5: Angels blow ninth inning lead, then rally for two and
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 5: to edge the Twins. Yeah, that doesn't even do it
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 5: justice how ridiculous that was.
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: But yes, Anaheim won the game.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 5: Minnesota at this point probably realizes they're not making the playoffs,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 5: but they still might be trying to win, man. I mean,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 5: obviously they were trying to win yesterday. Minnesota's bullpen is
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: not good at all. They used five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 5: Of course, the game went extras, so only one extra inning,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 5: but I would fade both bullpens in this game in
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: whatever I was going to do. Anaheim used four relief
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday. Minnesota, they're ranked second worst in bullpen. I mean,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 5: they're Somewhere in the bottom five.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is a little bit.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 5: Less bad, number 22. Anaheim's really bad offensively, which we
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 5: saw yesterday.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: Number 30.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 5: Oh, Anaheim, they put up three runs in the first inning, man.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 5: Hell yeah, this offense rules. Oh, wait, then you're going
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 5: to just not score again for the next eight innings.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, thank you.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 5: They're definitely not the better offense here. Minnesota's number 14.
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 5: Minnesota's the better offense. Minnesota's going with Connor Prelip in
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 5: this game. He's not been great. I mean, this has
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 5: been his rookie season. A lot of ups and downs. 5.24 ERA. 1.34 whip.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, not great. He's not good on the road, though. 6.24
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: road ERA with a. 305 opponent batting average on the road.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 5: You definitely do not really want to back him when
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: he's on the road. He's had good command numbers recently, though.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: His walk number's gone way down recently, so there is that.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: But he hasn't gone deep into these outings recently. He's
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: been okay over his last four outings. The walk number's
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: gone down, so there is something to be said about that.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: He's pitching a little bit better here, and one of
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: those was at the A's stadiums. That's an all right sign,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: although the other three were all against Detroit and Cleveland.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 5: Those are not good offenses. His hit rate is not great,
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 5: almost one per inning. His walk rate is not terrific either.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is decent, though, so he does have
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 5: strikeout ability, so maybe he will be good at some point.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 5: in the near future he's got a two point maybe
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 5: it'll be today maybe it's already i don't know man 2.9
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio 9.3 k's for nine that's not bad
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 5: um Anaheim's never faced him before and they are a
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 5: weak offense. So there is definitely the possibility that he
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 5: does actually pitch all right here. Um, I mean, if
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: he could do decent in the A's stadium on the road,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 5: you would think he should be able to do fairly
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 5: well here against the league's worst offense and the league's
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 5: worst home offense.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: Um, so something to consider there.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 5: Oh my God, dude, how am I going to block
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 5: all these crypto bots, man? Um, I already gave out
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 5: the Cryptobot of the Day award, man.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: I'm going to block.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 5: This person later. Well, not even a person, really. Grayson
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: Rodriguez is on the other side of this matchup. You know,
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 5: I mean, he has not really been able to come
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 5: back from injury so far, man, even though it looked
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 5: like he was going to be a decent pitcher a
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 5: couple years ago, but.
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: Things have not gone well so far. 6.1 ERA, 1.56
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: whip in his attempt to return this year. He's been
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: particularly bad at home.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 5: 7.54 home ERA with a 319 opponent batting average at home.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 5: That is not good. So both these pitchers are in
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 5: their bad home road split here. His team has lost
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 5: his last four games. They've lost how many games in
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 5: a row?
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: How many of these games is this? Ten of his
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: last 11, I believe, is what this is. His team
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: has lost. He's been walk heavy recently. He's been too
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: hittable as well.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 5: I mean, things are not going well for him, man.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's too high. His walk rate's not great.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is all right. 2.1 strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 5: a lot worse than what he posted yesterday. In the past,
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 5: where it looked like in 2024 he had a decent
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 5: season with Baltimore, man, sometimes injuries will just totally derail you,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 5: and it's sad, and that's what's happened here, at least
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 5: up to this point. 8.2 Ks for 9 for him,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 5: not great either. His numbers against Minnesota are not good either,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: and 22 at-bats, not a huge sample, but 318 average allowed,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 5: 893 OPS, 2-1 strikeout walk ratio. Minnesota is probably the
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 5: right side in this one. I would not back their bullpen, though.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: But I think the.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 5: Unfamiliarity and the current form is better for Prelip. The
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 5: money is not agreeing with it at all, though. It's
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 5: basically a pick-em price here, although I assume you'll have
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 5: to pay more for Minnesota if you want them in
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 5: the first five only because oddsmakers know how bad their
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 5: bullpen is. Minnesota, 68% of the tickets and 54% of
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 5: the cash on Anaheim, though. But I think Minnesota's got
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 5: the upper hand here. I'd rather back Prelip, who's in
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 5: better current form. It has the unfamiliarity, at least. I
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 5: think the over is probably the other way to play
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 5: this game. I think that might be the best way
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 5: to play this game, is the over.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: The total's 8.5-8. I know you're having to deal.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 5: With Anaheim's offense not doing much, and I know the
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 5: score yesterday hitting nine runs was extremely misleading because with
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 5: two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning, it
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 5: was a four-run total. It was a 3-1 game with
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 5: two outs in the bottom of the ninth, or top
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 5: of the ninth, excuse me. So that was a misleading
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 5: 5-4 final there as far as the total.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: So I will say that, but this game looks way
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: more over-conducive than anything else, though.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 5: I would say pre-lip, still really bad on the road generally,
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 5: and G-Rod, not good at home at all. Bad home
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 5: road splits here. Shaky pitching, used up bullpens as well,
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 5: bad bullpens as well. Yeah, I think most of the
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 5: signs are towards the over in that game for me.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 5: So I think if I was going to do anything
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: in that game, that is what I would do.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: I would play the over. Although I slightly lean Minnesota in.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 5: That game as well. Miami and San Diego. San Diego's
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 5: not in a good spot. They're returning home from the road.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 5: They went to the Giants in Colorado. They had a
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 5: very successful road trip.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: They only lost one game in that road trip. They're
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: very hot right now.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: But coming back home from a road trip and you're
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 5: Feeling pretty good now that you're four games above Arizona
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 5: here for that last wild card spot. Could be a
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 5: little bit of a bad spot for San Diego here, man.
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 5: Maybe you get a little bit distracted.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: I think the Marlins, I don't know if.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 5: They're eliminated yet or not, but the Marlins, you know.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 5: Little bit of a better spot for them, in my opinion.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 5: They're actually trying to win still. They played competitively at Arizona,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 5: and San Diego might go easy on them because they're
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 5: probably thanking Miami.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: Hey, you guys just beat Arizona. Thank you. You know
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: what I mean? So maybe San Diego is friends with
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: Miami right now for that. Although the Diamondbacks are going
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: to have to befriend Miami now in this series. Miami,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: they're only traveling in from Arizona, so the travel spot's
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: a little bit easier as well for Miami here. So situation,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: I think, definitely favors Miami here.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 5: The problem is I don't really think the pitching favors
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 5: them here, although they do have rest.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: Miami has the rest edge. They didn't play yesterday.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 5: So San Diego is in kind of a double whammy here,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 5: which I do look for those double whammies.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: You get a team returning up from the road, which.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 5: Is a bad spot, plus a rest disadvantage on top
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 5: of that. Well, that's the spot San Diego's in here.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 5: They used two relief pitchers yesterday. Most of their better
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 5: relievers are available here. So San Diego does still have
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 5: a bullpen advantage here. They're number six. Miami's number eight,
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: although I don't think Miami's that good. And San Diego's
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 5: probably a little bit better than that would suggest. Miami's
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 5: been the better offense.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: They're number eight.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 5: San Diego's number, where are they?
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 2: They moved up a little bit, right? They're number 18.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah, tied with Detroit. This is a pitcher-friendly ballpark here.
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 5: You know, San Diego's offense, their offensive numbers, of course,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 5: every team's offensive.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: Numbers go up when they play in course field pretty much.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 5: So that's what San Diego just did, although their offense
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 5: has been better in the second half for sure. Tyler
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: Phillips is getting the start from Miami, and this is
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 5: where I start kind of not wanting to back Miami,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 5: even though the situation favors Miami. Phillips is not very good,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 5: even though he has a 3.55 ERA. 1.33 whip is
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 5: not that good. He's not good on the road.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: 5.21 road ERA. Although this is a pitcher from the park,
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 5: Current form, not really that good, even though Miami has
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 5: won his last three outings. He did struggle his last
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 5: couple outings against the Dodgers and the Cubs. Those are
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 5: good offenses, but still, I don't really trust Phillips here.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 5: Don't really trust him to go deep. His hit rate
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 5: is all right. His walk rate's too high. His strikeout
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 5: rate's not great. His strikeout walk ratio's really bad.
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: 1.9, so he's I don't know, man. I don't really
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: want to back him. He's not that good. 7.3 strikeout
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: per nine is not great. I mean, it's all right.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 5: His numbers against San Diego, they're 0 for 9 off him,
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 5: so they've had six guys who have faced him, and
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 5: they've not had a hit off him or a walk.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 5: One strikeout here and no walk, so maybe Phillips will
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 5: do okay in this matchup, but San Diego clearly has
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 5: the better starter here with Nick Pavetta.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: The question is, like, how.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: How long is he going to go in this game?
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 5: But even if he doesn't go that long, San Diego's
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 5: bullpen is good enough to cover that, to cover the
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 5: innings that he doesn't pitch. I mean, Pavetta, 3.6 ERA
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 5: this year, one whip. He hasn't pitched much this year.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 5: He's been hurt most of the year. Been pretty good
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 5: at home, though, when he has pitched. 3.38 home ERA.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 5: He was pitching well, for the most part, early in
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 5: the season before.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: He went down.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 5: Since he's come back, he's had a five-inning shutout here
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 5: at home against Washington. That was pretty good. And then, really,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 5: I think they're just keeping him on a pitch count.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 5: I think that's why they limited him to four innings
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 5: last time at San Francisco.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: He wasn't horrible.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 5: In that outing, but they took him out, I think,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 5: because they're limiting him to about 70 pitches right now.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 5: I think that's why, but he's had no walks so
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 5: far in nine innings. He's coming back, two runs allowed,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 5: seven hits, seven strikeouts. So, yeah, Pavetta, I mean, they're
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 5: going easy on him, easing him back in, but he
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 5: is pitching pretty well right now. And I don't expect
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 5: them to do that badly here against Miami. They're 0-7
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 5: off and with six strikeouts. I know it's a small sample,
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 5: but that's pretty ridiculous. And no walks either. Although Sandy
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 5: Alcantara is listed in there, so really they're 0-5 off
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: and with four strikeouts.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: All right, whatever. Between Edwards and Stowers. Yeah, I mean...
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: What do we do here, man? What do we do?
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 5: I still think Miami is probably the lean here, though.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 5: San Diego's just in a really negative spot. 92% of tickets,
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 5: 95% of the cash on San Diego. They're around minus
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 5: 200 here. It's a huge price to land San Diego.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 5: And they're very public. I think everybody knows, although the
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 5: money doesn't really look like it's trying to back Miami
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 5: here either, but everybody knows San Diego.
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: They're in this wild card race.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 5: They Need to win, but their need is a little
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 5: bit less right now because their lead over the D-backs
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: is pretty big right now. You know, so getting a
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 5: price tag like this, yeah, like you take Miami in
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 5: the first five on a run line, you might be
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: able to get them plus one or something on the
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 5: run line in the first five.
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: That's probably what I would do.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 5: I still want to avoid the bullpen just because San
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 5: Diego probably is still the better bullpen, but I think
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 5: that's what I would do is take Miami in the
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 5: first five and hope Phillips can kind of just duel
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 5: Pavetta there.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: I hope the situation helps you there.
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 5: Total's low at seven and a half, so that's good
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 5: news for the underdog, because like I always say, when
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 5: it's a low total, it means the underdog is more
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 5: likely to hang around.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: So those are my thoughts on that game. All right.
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 5: Yankees in Arizona, man, just way too much to deal with.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 5: This is my second strongest lean of the day, by
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 5: the way, in this game.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: I I would say.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 5: Arizona staying at home here. They were off yesterday. Both
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: teams were off yesterday. Arizona, they need to win, man.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 5: This is total desperation for Arizona here. So you know
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 5: you're getting motivation with Arizona here. Lost the last two
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 5: games at home to Miami. They got to win, man.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are going to have to travel out here
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 5: coming in from Minnesota. So they do have to adjust
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 5: their bio clocks a little bit here to this later
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 5: time zone, which sometimes is not really that easy. As
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 5: far as the bullpens, yeah, the Yankees have the better bullpen.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 5: There's no question about that. They're one of the top
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 5: two bullpens here. Yankees and Red Sox still at the
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 5: top there. Arizona's is ranked, uh, fifth. Although I don't
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 5: think they're that good. They're decent, but the Yankees have
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen. Yankees are the better offense. They're back
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 5: up to number 11 tie with Atlanta and the white socks.
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 5: They've been hitting pretty well again, especially since judge has
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 5: come back. Although judge got pulled from the game the
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 5: other day, I think. So I don't know if judge
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 5: is actually playing in this game or not. It seemed
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 5: like he had some.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: Issue crop up. I don't know exactly what it was. Um,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: I kind of think he's going to play though. I mean,
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Should we look? Let me see.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 5: Cause it does seem like as far as usually hitters,
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 5: I don't think matter that much, but with judge is
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 5: one of the hitters that kind of does matter here.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: He's listed as day to day.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: So I don't really know.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 5: Lower leg tightness, no idea. I mean, I kind of
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 5: think he's going to go, but who knows, man. Although
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 5: if he doesn't go, it'll just help my case because
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 5: I like Arizona in this game. First five would be
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 5: the way I would play it. But the Yankees, yeah,
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 5: with the bioclock spot, whatever. Yeah, they have the.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 2: Better hitting, though. Arizona, where is Arizona at in hitting?
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: Wrong tab. They're number 20. So, yes, the Yankees have
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: the better hitting. We know that. But looking at the pitching,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 2: you'd think the Yankees have the better pitcher here, Garrett Cole.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 5: Generally, I would say, yeah, probably. But if you look
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 5: at the matchup numbers, it's not really the case.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: He's got a three... In current form, he's got a 3.67 ERA, 1.13 whip. Yeah,
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: he's been good. No doubt about that, although he is
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: a bit older at this point. He's been.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 5: Better ERA-wise on the road, 3.45, but his road opponent
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 5: batting average, 255, is not that good. And he's not
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 5: been good over the past month, man. He's been extremely hittable.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 5: And this is against some pretty weak offenses, really. Anaheim,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 5: San Diego, and the Mets. And across those three starts,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 5: he has a 6.48 ERA. And he's given up 23
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 5: hits in 16 and two thirds innings. So yeah, he's
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 5: out of form right now. He's not pitching well, even
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 5: though he still has A 12-to-1 strikeout walk ratio over
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 5: that span, so that's good. But his hit ability has
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 5: been a problem. His hit rate is all right on
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 5: the season. His walk rate is definitely low. His strikeout
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 5: rate is high as well, so those numbers are good.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 5: A 5.3 strikeout walk ratio is definitely good. 9.1 Ks
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 5: for 9 is good as well. Cole against Arizona though
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 5: plus the current form and he's in not being good
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 5: Arizona's been able to hit him they have 42 at-bats
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 5: against him although it's only four hitters and it's primarily
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 5: Arenado and McCann but they both destroy Cole 381 average
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 5: from all four these guys combined 1208 OPS 5 to
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 5: 3 strikeout walk ratio the literally all the damage except
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 5: for one of the walks and Comes from Aranato and McCann,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 5: and then Noot Bar has one walk against him. Noot Bar,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 5: which sounds like a Dutch candy bar or something, has peanuts.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 2: In it for sure.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 5: So yeah, Cole, you know, he's not in great form
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 5: right now, and his matchup is not exactly that good.
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 5: Arizona needs to win here, and Arizona's going with the
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 5: guy that has fooled the advanced analytics guys all season,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 5: Eduardo Rodriguez, 2.62 ERA. 1.22 whip is not that good,
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 5: but he's been pretty consistent this year in pitching pretty well.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 5: He's got a 2.74 home ERA, so he is a
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 5: little bit worse ERA-wise at home.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: Still is pitching fairly well recently. I'm I don't know.
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's been a little bit hittable, I guess, recently.
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 5: His ERA has been a lot better than Cole's recently, though.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 5: And he's been a little bit more walk-heavy than Cole,
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 5: but a little bit better at strikeouts recently as well.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 5: I mean, really, the whole season, though, Erod has been
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 5: pretty good. I mean, he's only allowed more than four
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 5: earned runs once all season. And he's allowed more than
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 5: three earned runs only a few times. He's got a
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: pretty low hit rate. His walk rate isn't really that good.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is also low.
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 2: So the advanced analytics guys hate that.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 5: 2.3 strikeout walk ratio. I know that's not good. 6.8
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 5: case for nine is not good either, but he's still
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 5: pitching effectively. So I don't know what to tell you, man.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 5: Numbers against the Yankees, I believe, are also good. Yeah,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 5: they have 84 at-bats against him. Judge does not hit
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 5: him well at all. So even if Judge is in
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 5: the lineup, he's 6 for 34 off him with 14 strikeouts.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 5: So he is not done well against him, although he
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 5: does have 8 walks as well. But in 84 at-bats,
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 5: the Yankees have a 202 average, 607 OPS against him.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 5: 33-13 strikeout walk ratio, so that ratio's not great, but
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: like I said, a lot of those walks are Aaron Judge.
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: This lineup has not done well against E-Rod, man, so
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 5: I like Arizona for all the reasons that I stated.
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 5: I would do it first five because the Yankees do
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 5: have the better bullpen here. Yankees are getting the money,
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 5: 73% of tickets, 91% of the cash on them. They
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 5: drop from minus 135 down to almost a pick'em, though,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 5: and you gotta think it looks way too easy to
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 5: play the Yankees here, right? It's the Yankees, the big
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 5: name team, the big market team. They're almost always overvalued
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 5: in the market. Cole, everybody knows him. He's a pitcher
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 5: with big name recognition. So yeah, I think it looks
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 5: way too easy to me to play the Yankees here.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 5: So I don't know about these percentages here. I like
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 5: Arizona in the first five there. You'll probably still get
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 5: them as an underdog actually in the first five, I
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 5: would imagine. Because Cole is going to get the respect
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 5: in the market enough for that to be the case.
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 5: And then we have the late, late game on Apple TV,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 5: which is San Francisco at L.A., the Dodgers. The Dodgers
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 5: played yesterday, and they're returning home from a road trip,
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 5: so it's a double whammy for the Dodgers, too. They're
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 5: returning home from the road, and it's a triple whammy
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 5: because they're having to go back to the Pacific Coast
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 5: to play a late-night game. They were just on the
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 5: East Coast in Miami, and then they were in Cincinnati last,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 5: so they're coming back from the central time zone here now.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: I believe is what that.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 5: No, that's the Eastern time zone too, isn't it? Yeah,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 5: this is a bad travel spot for them, dude.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 2: I think it is. Yeah, bad travel spot for them. Yeah,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking about... Because I'm thinking the crossover to Central,
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: I think, is somewhere in Indiana, but maybe I'm wrong
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: about that. Yeah, this is a horrible spot for the Dodgers.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 2: Returning home, they might... just not have full effort here.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers have a big lead in the division. Yeah,
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: they got to contend with Milwaukee for the number one seed,
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: but I don't know, man. To me, the Giants might
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: get more up for this game because the Giants are
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: going nowhere. So this is one of the types of
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: games they will get up for to try to deal
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 2: a loss to the Dodgers here, man. You know what
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: I mean?
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 5: So yeah, plus Dodgers, yeah. It could be the distraction
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 5: from returning on from the road. Plus the bio clock
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 5: spot where they're going to have to readjust to a
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 5: late night time, which is not going to be easy
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 5: to do. They're going to be playing like well after
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 5: midnight based on their biological clock, which.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: Is bad as well. All that stuff is bad, man.
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 5: Plus the Giants were not playing yesterday and the Dodgers were,
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 5: so the Giants have the rest edge as well.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: The problem is, do you really want to do this?
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 5: Do you really want to back a matchup here that
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 5: like pretty clearly favors the Dodgers and I don't want to,
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 5: even though you're getting a huge underdog price with San
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 5: Francisco if you do do this. The Dodgers used four
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers yesterday, although Robleski is in the mix there
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 5: as being a relief pitcher, even though I think he
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 5: started the game. And then Landon Knack is kind of
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 5: a long relief guy as well. So they didn't really
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 5: use their better relievers yesterday, but still... Dodgers' bullpen not
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 5: in great shape here right now. They are still the
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 5: better of these two bullpens, though.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: They're number 14.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 5: San Francisco's number 24, although their ERAs are not that
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 5: far off from each other. So I think the bullpen situation,
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 5: like the bullpens are actually kind of closely matched here.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 5: Dodgers are the number two offense. We know they're the
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 5: way better offense here. San Francisco's ranked 16th, though, but
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 5: I still don't think they're that good. And San Francisco's
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 5: going with the guy that screwed us in his last start,
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 5: Cesar Perdomo. He's got a 3.68 ERA.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 2: 1.36 WIB.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 5: He's been good on the road, though,. 9 road ERA.
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 5: His one home start was bad, and that was his
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 5: last start. So I don't exactly want to back him here.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 5: But yeah, and his team has lost all three of
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 5: his games, but they've lost all of them by two
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 5: or less.
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 2: So at least there's that.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 5: But we tried to back him against San Diego and
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 5: it did not work out well in that one.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that was bad.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 5: He's got too many hits. He's a lot more than
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 5: one hit per inning. His walk rate is whatever.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: It's all right.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is like all right, kind of. 2.8
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is all right. 6.8 strikeout per nine
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 5: is not very good. I don't think he's that good, man,
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 5: so I don't really want to deal with him here.
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 5: Dodgers have never seen him before, but I just can't
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 5: trust him enough, man. Glasnow, Tyler Glasnow is pitching for
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers here. He's the way more trustworthy starter. 3.5 ERA,.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 5: 97 whip, although he hasn't been that good at home,
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 5: although it's a small sample size, but 4.56 home ERA.
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 5: He's been a little bit more beatable at home. His
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: last two starts, haven't really been that good. Seven walks
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 5: over the last 10 innings. His last start was kind
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 5: of bad at Miami. That was actually a road start
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 5: at Miami. But I don't think he's bad, man. I
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 5: think it's a little bit fluky. He's got a low
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 5: hit rate. His walk rate's not that bad. His strikeout
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 5: rate's high. He's still a really good pitcher. 3.7 strikeout
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 5: walk ratio.
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. 11.2 Ks for nine is good. I mean,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: really good, I would say.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 5: And his numbers against the Giants are still good as well.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 5: They only have four hitters who have faced him, believe
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 5: it or not, so the Giants aren't even that familiar
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 5: with him. They have 21 at-bats against him, 238 average,
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 5: 606 OPS, 4-1 strikeout walk ratio. So while the Dodgers
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 5: are in a really, really horrible spot here, I just
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: can't do it. I can't back a matchup that is
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 5: just totally disadvantageous, although the money is indicating that way.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 5: 95% of tickets on the Dodgers, 91% of the cash.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 5: They're over minus 300 here, so if you're taking the Giants,
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 5: you'll probably be able to get them. If you're taking
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 5: them full game, you'll probably get them plus two and
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: a half runs or something. If you want to do that,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, they might be able to come within two
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 5: runs of the Dodgers in a bad spot like this,
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 5: but You know, I do focus on pitching matchups a
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 5: lot for the analysis here. If it was another sport
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 5: in a situation like this, I'd probably be on a
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 5: team like the Giants here, but the pitching matchups, they
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 5: matter quite a bit in baseball, even though they get
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 5: overrated a little bit. I don't think it's enough, but
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 5: do I want the Dodgers here?
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: No, I don't. The over is getting money as well here.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: The over eight, I don't know. I don't have a
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 2: great feel for this game at all, man, so... That's
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: the way that it is.
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Dodgers have the matchup edge pretty much everywhere, except
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 5: for maybe the bullpens. They don't have the situational edge
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 5: or the rest edge, though. So those are my thoughts there.
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 5: Let me block this other bot here real quick. I
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 5: hate this shit, man. Maybe I should stop saying it
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 5: out loud because that's why maybe more of them are
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 5: coming into my chat here.
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: All right, block. Okay, anyway.
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 5: Yeah, let's go to the other sports here. WNBA, I
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 5: was not good with my WNBA reads yesterday, man. I
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 5: didn't make any of them a play.
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: I apologize.
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 5: I guess Angel Reese actually scored a ton in that
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 5: game for Atlanta yesterday, whatever. We move on to today's
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 5: slate here. I'm not going to have a play in
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 5: any of these games either, although I like the late
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 5: game a little bit.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: The first game is Indiana at Toronto.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 5: Indiana's in the playoffs already, but like I said yesterday,
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 5: they are battling with Atlanta for who gets basically home
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 5: court between what seems like kind of an inevitable matchup
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 5: between the two in the first round of the playoffs.
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 5: Maybe it won't happen, but they're still battling for seating here.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 5: Toronto's going to show up anyway, though, because Toronto's at least...
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 5: I think they're going to at least show up for
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 5: a game against Indiana in their inaugural season, even if
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 5: Toronto is just playing out the stretch here and not
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 5: making the playoffs.
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: Now, it looks like they're in a return home spot.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 5: That's not the case, because remember, all these teams are
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 5: coming out of this long break here. So Toronto went
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 5: into the break on a bad note, a really bad note.
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 5: They got blown out in their last few games here.
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 5: They lost by double digits in four straight games. So
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 5: I think they might show up here. Like I said,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 5: when you go into a break like that, if you
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 5: go in on a bad note, you usually use that
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 5: break to fix things, whereas if you go in on
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 5: a good note, there's nothing to fix. And I think
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 5: Indiana did go in on a good note, if I
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 5: remember correctly. Yeah, they won their last two games, not
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 5: against really good teams, but still, I think that alone
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 5: kind of puts me on Toronto in this game. I mean, obviously,
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to make a play on this, but
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 5: I would lean Toronto in this one. They're a very
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 5: anti-public play, and you're getting a lot of points here,
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 5: but the total's really high.
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: As well in the high 180s. Money is coming in
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: on the under in that game, though.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think I'd want to play an
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 5: over in games like this because the offenses might start
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 5: slow after a long.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: Layoff, you know what I mean?
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 5: So I don't really love the idea of an over
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 5: in these games, even though this is a style matchup
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 5: that might be conducive to an over, by which I
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 5: mean these teams don't really play defense that well, and
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 5: Indiana plays fast-paced. But 91% of tickets are on Indiana,
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 5: 88% of the cash on them, so the money is
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 5: fading them. They went up to about a 15-point favor here, 14.5.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 5: I would lean towards taking the points of Toronto there,
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 5: like I said, given the way that those teams went
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: into the break. The one really competitive matchup here is
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 5: New York and Minnesota, which both teams are going to
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 5: make the playoffs. I think both teams will show up
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 5: and try to win this game. Maybe to try to
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 5: make some sort of statement, at least, or something. Even
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 5: though both teams, I guess you could argue, are battling
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 5: for playoff positioning as well. Minnesota, believe it or not,
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: went into the break on a bad note. They lost
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 5: to Golden State and Atlanta going into the break. Those
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 5: are two pretty good teams. Golden State, or excuse me, Minnesota,
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 5: excuse me, lost those two games. Minnesota's the best team
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 5: in the league. And they lost those two games. So
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 5: I think Minnesota is going to come out ready for
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 5: this game against the Liberty, even though the Liberty are
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 5: going to show up too. But the Western Conference is
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 5: just better, man. They have better teams in the West.
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 5: The top three teams in the league are all.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 2: Out of the West.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 5: Minnesota, Vegas, and Golden State. Yeah, I mean, I don't
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 5: believe the Liberty are that good on the road either,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 5: if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, they're only 10-10 on the road,
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 5: so I would not really want to back the Liberty here, man.
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: Liberty did go into the break winning two of their
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 5: last three at least, but I think given that Minnesota
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 5: went into the break on a bad note, they're a
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 5: good team. To me, it looks like they're going to
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 5: show up in this one, so I think I would
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 5: lean towards laying the points with Minnesota in this one.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 5: The money is not agreeing with me at all on
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 5: that one, though. Minnesota's minus 6.5.
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: 82% of the tickets are on them. So they're a
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: public side.
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 5: 64% of the cash on New York, though. So the
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 5: money is backing the Liberty in that game with a
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 5: somewhat high total in that game as well.
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 5: I think I'd lay the points if I was going
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 5: to do anything. I mean, you saw my analysis on it.
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 5: So that's what I think. I think I like the
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 5: last game the most, but the money doesn't agree with
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 5: me on this one either. Portland at Golden State. I
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 5: like Portland.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: In this one.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, Golden State, they went into the break winning
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 5: four games in a row. And look what they did
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 5: in their very last game. Oh, well, they went into
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 5: Portland and they beat Portland. So this is kind of
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 5: like a delayed zigzag spot where Golden State coming out
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 5: of the break. I just don't know if they're going
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 5: to have that much focus on Portland here. Although I
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 5: think Golden State's next game is only against Seattle or something.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: So I don't think it's a look ahead spot. If
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 2: it was, I might actually.
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 5: Fire on the fire here and elevate it to a play.
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 5: I'm not going to, but I do like the fire here.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: In this game here.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 5: Again, Golden State's a very good team, but they are
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 5: a little bit more defensive, I would say, than offensive.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: So there is a low total in this game here. Again,
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: Golden State went into the break on a good note,
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 2: so their momentum might be disrupted here. They just went
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 2: into Portland and beat them before the break, so they
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 2: might not fully focus on Portland because of that. And
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: if you look at what happened in this game, it
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: was actually a little bit misleading. The Golden State won
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 2: this game by 17, but... The number of possessions was
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: very similar. The number of rebounds was almost the same.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: It was only a two rebound advantage for Golden State.
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: So Portland actually played fairly well in this game. It's
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: just their shooting percentages were lower. It was mostly the
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: field goal percentage was just lower. Golden State shot almost
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 2: 50% from the field and Portland was only 39%. And
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 2: that was really the difference in the game.
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 5: Shooting percentages plus there was a free throw outlier as
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 5: well where golden state went to the line eight more
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 5: times and they hit six they hit eight more free
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 5: throws excuse me than portland did and made 90 of
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 5: their free throws both teams shot well from the free
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 5: throw line but golden state went to the line more
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 5: so a little bit of an outlier here where the
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 5: shooting percentages might regress and progress a little bit from
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 5: what happened in this game and uh The free throw
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 5: advantage might not be quite as much for Golden State
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 5: this time, although they will be at home this time,
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 5: so they might be getting some of the calls.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 2: But still. I think Portland's the right side here. I
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: think it is a zigzag spot for Portland here. Zigzagging
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 2: against what was a misleading result.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 5: And it's sort of, you know, there's that road revenge
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 5: type of thing where Portland might be a little bit
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 5: more motivated, but it's really more that Portland will have
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 5: the adjustments to make based off of that because they lost,
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean? They know what happened that
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 5: they could fix that happened that was bad for them.
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 5: Whereas Golden State, even though I know I said it
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 5: was kind of misleading and they didn't play as well
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 5: as it looks like, When you win, it's like you
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 5: almost have nothing to fix, you know what I mean?
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 5: So that's why the zigzag kind of works as well.
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 5: Portland actually played one additional game after that before the break.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 5: They lost to Phoenix, but they still went into the
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 5: break on a bad note, losing five of their last
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 5: six games. So I think the break might help regain
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 5: their momentum. So yeah, I like Portland in this one.
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 5: I think this is the best.
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 2: Play on the WNBA slate here. Money not agreeing.
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 5: 75% of tickets, 95% of the cash on Golden State.
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: So the money's back in Golden State. But you're getting 13.5
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: points basically with Portland now. And this is a very
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: low total at 160.5. So you know I like that.
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 2: I like getting huge underdogs when you have a low
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: total like that. Because with a low total, fewer points
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: means it's more likely that the underdog will be able
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: to hang around in that game. And the points are
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: worth more. So that makes me like Portland more.
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 5: Plus the money's coming in on the under, it looks like.
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean, I think Golden State might kind
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 5: of just play a defensive game.
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: Try to get in get out and yeah if I
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: was going.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 5: To play any of the WNBA games today that's what
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 5: it would be I would take the points with Portland
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 5: all right then we have college football here uh one
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 5: really big game between two ranked teams and then we
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 5: have The game that's a little bit earlier is Miami at.
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 2: Wake Forest, Miami, Florida.
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 5: Of course, this is an ACC battle here. Friday night
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 5: game on ESPN, man, so you know the home team
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 5: always gets up for a game like that. They always have,
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 5: you know, the tailgating gets crazy, the crowd gets crazy,
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 5: so Wake Forest should get up for this game. The
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 5: question is, is it going to be enough for them
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 5: to cover against Miami?
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, Miami's number five in the country right now, though,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 5: of course, rankings can be off, and that's why we
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 5: can find situations where we can fade the rankings if
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers are telling you something different. They're not in
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 5: this game, of course, though. Yeah, I mean, Miami's been
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 5: good so far, but what do we really know about
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 5: them so far?
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man.
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, they killed me when I tried to back
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 5: Stanford against them, but Stanford's not exactly good either. And
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 5: then Miami killed Florida A & M. So Miami hasn't
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 5: really been tested.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 2: This is going to be Miami's most difficult game so far,
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: I think.
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 5: An ACC, they already did play one ACC game against Stanford,
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 5: but still. And that was them having to go to
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 5: the Pacific Coast. It was a weird spot for them,
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 5: but I don't know. Playing Wake Forest, a little bit
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 5: of a different animal here, man. Although Miami does look
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 5: good so far with Mensah at quarterback, even though I
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 5: thought they would take a little bit of a step
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 5: back this year.
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 2: Wake has been good so far.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 5: They're 2-0, but they only beat Akron, and then they
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 5: did win in what I thought was a bad spot.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 5: They went to Purdue, and they still escaped with a win,
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 5: but the problem is that game went a bunch of overtimes, man.
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 5: Two overtimes, so I don't really want Wake here. I mean,
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 5: they're coming off a double OT game, even though they
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 5: didn't look great.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: In the game.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 5: And you can explain, as I explained back then, I
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 5: liked Purdue to cover in this game, and they still
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 5: did cover the two.
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: And a half, barely, losing by two.
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 5: But I told you Wake was in a huge look-ahead
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 5: spot because they had this massive game here on Friday,
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 5: ESPN hosting Miami. But this is a short week for Wake,
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 5: so it's kind of a problem, whereas Miami played on
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 5: I believe Miami played last Thursday so Miami has over
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 5: a week off so Miami schedule makers being very kind
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 5: to Miami man Miami played last Thursday and it was
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 5: an easy win over Florida A & M so Miami
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to fade them here because they
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 5: have multiple days extra rest here having played on Thursday
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 5: whereas Wake played on Saturday and they have to flip
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 5: around and now play on a Friday I don't want
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 5: to lay the points with Miami either though because this
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 5: is going to be a big game for Wake and
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 5: they are going to show up at least And, you know, Miami,
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 5: I think Miami has some injuries going on in their
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 5: secondary right now, so Wake might be able to kind
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 5: of take advantage of that a little bit. The total
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 5: is kind of interesting. Total's a bit high in the mid-50s,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 5: so the money kind of indicating.
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: Towards the under here. I don't know. I don't know
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: if I have a great gauge on the total.
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 5: It almost seems too easy to play the under, though,
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 5: given that both these teams have been scoring recently, but
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 5: I don't think I'd want to be on the under
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 5: in this one, though. And as far as the side,
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 5: I mean, if you're going to play Miami, I would
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 5: wait because I think the.
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: Line's going to go back up.
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 5: You're looking at 20.5 right now, but there were some
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 5: 21s out there. I think there will be because Miami's
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 5: going to be public. They're 85% of tickets, 92% of
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 5: the cash on them. Likely the public's going to come
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 5: in on Miami somewhat strongly later today, and you'll see
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 5: that line move up. You'll probably be able to catch
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 5: a 21, but this line opened 22.5, and it already
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 5: did drop through that key number at 21, so some
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 5: initial money did come in awake. I get the argument
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 5: for it, but I just don't have much of a
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 5: good read on this one, man.
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 2: I think it's a very difficult read. I mean, you
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 2: know me.
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 5: Usually I like these home underdogs fading. Some of these
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 5: teams that you know are kind of overrated. What I
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 5: will say is that you pretty much know that you're
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 5: not really getting any value laying points with Miami here.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 5: That's the thing. It's definitely a game that I would
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 5: not want to touch, though. Just too many conflicting factors there.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 5: I don't even know if I want to say I
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 5: have a slight lean on the side there, really, because
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 5: I don't really. I do have more of an opinion
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 5: on the side in this other game. Houston at Texas Tech.
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 5: Number 22, Houston. Number 13, Texas Tech on Fox. Texas
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 5: Tech has not looked good so far, man. They've already
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 5: dropped in the rankings a little bit. They had kind
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 5: of a not-great-looking win against Abilene Christian, and then they
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 5: went to Oregon State, and they did not look good
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 5: in that game either. They won by 11, but that
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 5: was a one-score game in the fourth quarter. That was
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 5: not a good performance from Texas Tech.
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 2: However, you know, I like to... look for teams to
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: bounce back after something like that. You know what I mean?
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 5: Like going out to Oregon state's a weird travel spot
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 5: going out to Corvallis, Corvallis, whatever. You got to go
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 5: out to the Pacific coast. Although I don't think that
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 5: was a late night game, but I could be wrong
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 5: about that.
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Um, it was a night game, at
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 2: least seven 30.
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 5: Kind of a weird spot, man to come out there.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 5: But now this is going to be Texas techs, FBS
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 5: home opener. It's a night game on TV. So, you know,
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 5: the home crowd is going to be crazy. Um, So
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 5: that helps with the motivation there. I think it also
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 5: helps that they had a scare against Oregon State.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Texas Tech was a big favorite.
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 5: And you know I like to look at big favorites
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 5: that escaped in their last game because it shocks them
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 5: back into focus. I think that's going to help Texas
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 5: Tech in this one. The problem that I have with
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 5: it is Texas Tech was not good in this game.
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 5: And in fact, Oregon State outgained them by over 100 yards.
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 5: So that is not a good sign. So that worries me.
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 5: Like I said with the Lions last night. So yeah,
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 5: I apologize for that. Luckily, I did not put it
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 5: in my pick five last night. I was close to
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 5: doing it. I liked the Lions.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: It wasn't my.
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 5: Main pick them pool where you have to pick every game.
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 5: I picked the Lions to cover. But yeah, you know,
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 5: it was just.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to tell you about that. Both
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: of those defenses... I mean, excuse me, the Lions defense
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: looks awful, but the Bills defense doesn't look good either.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: That was... An unbelievably easy over yesterday. I did not
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: think the over was even the right play yesterday either,
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: so I was not good on any of that. But anyway, yeah,
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 2: I would be a little bit wary of Texas Tech
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 2: just because Oregon State outgained them, and that is not
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: good for Texas Tech.
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 5: I'd rather have had this be a misleading... result in
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 5: favor of Oregon State but instead it was actually a
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 5: misleading result in favor of Texas Tech like based on
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 5: the yardage they did not even deserve to win this
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 5: game and that's the problem that I have with it
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 5: however they were still a better team you know they
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 5: did still manage to win the game and they got
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 5: a scare from it so there is that As far
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 5: as Houston is concerned, this is going to be a
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 5: revenge game for Houston. Houston considers themselves to be the
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 5: little brother.
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 2: I think, in this in-state matchup here.
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 5: Texas Tech is the bigger school, although they're both in
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 5: the Big 12 now, at least. Last year, I believe,
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 5: Texas Tech destroyed Houston. Yeah, Texas Tech went into Houston
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 5: and beat them 35-11. Different teams, well, Houston's kind of
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 5: a similar team as here. Texas Tech has a different
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 5: quarterback as Morton played in that game, although Hammond, who
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 5: is currently Texas Tech's quarterback, did play in a lot
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 5: of games last year, or a couple of games, because
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 5: Morton was hurt. But Morton played in the Houston game, though.
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 5: But anyway, Texas Tech went into Houston and beat them up,
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 5: so there is a little bit of a revenge angle
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 5: here for last year for Houston.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 2: So Houston is going to be motivated in this game.
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 5: Houston is a very similar team to last year, and
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 5: I do think Texas Tech is overrated. Like I said
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 5: at the beginning of the season, I thought Texas Tech
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 5: might not win the Big 12. I was looking more
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 5: towards BYU, like a physical team like that. Houston is
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 5: a good defensive team, by the way, but we just
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 5: don't know what Houston is yet. And interestingly, they played
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 5: Oregon State as well, and they actually looked worse against
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 5: Oregon State. If you just look at the final score,
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 5: it's like, well... Texas Tech went to Oregon State and
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 5: beat them by 13 or whatever. Houston, yeah, or beat
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 5: them by, yeah, no, it was 13, right? So they
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 5: won by, or 15, right?
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: No, I don't know.
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 5: No, they won by the same amount, maybe, I don't know.
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 5: But Houston only beat them at home by 13.
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 2: So I think.
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 5: Houston's win over Oregon State looks less impressive. However, Houston
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 5: outgained Oregon State by a lot. They outgained them by
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 5: over 100 yards, and they had two turnovers in the
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 5: game and still won the game. So Houston, that was
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 5: not a misleading win for Houston. So that's where I
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 5: get tripped up with this game because I think people
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 5: are going to look at this and say, oh, well,
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 5: Texas Tech, their win was more impressive, right, because they
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 5: went into Oregon State and beat them, whereas Houston.
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: beat them at home kind of less impressively.
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 5: But then you look at the stat sheet, and Houston
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 5: was actually better than Texas Tech was in those games.
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 5: Then Houston beat Southern. I mean, they're whatever. I mean,
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 5: that was an easy win. It was a cupcake for Houston,
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 5: so whatever. They're coming off that game. That doesn't really matter.
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 5: But to me, I still think Texas Tech just got
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 5: a scare put into them, man. So I lean towards
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 5: laying the points here. With Texas Tech here in Houston,
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 5: it seems like they've been kind of a trendy underdog
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 5: all week.
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 2: And you know I don't like those trendy dogs.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 5: The line initially dropped from 9 to 7.5 here, but
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 5: that's not really that key of a move.
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech is the favorite here, obviously. They're at home.
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 5: No key number there, you know what I mean? The
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 5: key number being 7 here, or 10. So the drop
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 5: from 9 to 7.5 is not much. 65% of tickets,
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 5: 67% of the cash on Houston here.
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 2: But I don't know, man.
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 5: I think Houston's kind of looking like a public dog
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 5: in this one. So that plus the fact that I
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 5: think Texas Tech got kind of caught in kind of
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 5: a weird spot last week and they might get shocked
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 5: back into some focus and fix some stuff.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 2: I kind of lean Texas Tech here. However.
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 5: I obviously don't love it, and I would say that
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 5: the defense is in favor of Houston, though. Houston is
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 5: the better defense here, I think, and they're getting points.
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 5: I do like the better defense getting points in a
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 5: lot of cases, and this total is not too high, 52.5,
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 5: and the money's indicating towards.
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: The under, and I think it's a little bit correlated, right?
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 5: Because Houston's the more defensive team, I think Houston and
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 5: the under are correlated here, plus the underdog is usually
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 5: correlated to the under as well, and Texas Tech would
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 5: be correlated to the over.
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 5: Those would be my thoughts on that game, but yeah,
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 5: I would slightly lean towards laying it with Texas Tech.
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't like doing these long shows. I do
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 2: not like it.
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 5: And then we do have Oregon is also playing tonight,
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 5: but they're playing Portland State, which is an FCS team,
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 5: so I don't have much going on with that game.
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 5: Oregon's laying almost 60 points in the game, and you
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 5: would think Oregon should bounce back with some ferocity because
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 5: they just had a really ugly loss to Oklahoma State
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 5: last last week where I liked Oklahoma State to cover.
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 5: I did not think they were going to win the
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 5: game outright. Really bad performance for Oregon.
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 2: Oregon is now.
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 5: Tumbling in the rankings after they were supposed to be
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 5: one of the best teams in the league. I don't
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 5: think Oregon is as bad as they looked last week,
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 5: but are they really going to be incentivized to beat
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 5: Portland State by 60-something points or 58, 59 in this case?
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 2: Portland State is at least a little brother in that game.
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: So they're going to try to get up for it.
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 2: Although Portland State is a bad team. I think they've
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 2: played two of their three games have been against FCS
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 2: competitions so far because they're also FCS.
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 5: And they've lost all their games, Portland State. So they're
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 5: obviously not going to win this. Oregon's obviously going to
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 5: win this game easily. But Oregon does have USC next,
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 5: which is a much, much bigger game. So I could
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 5: see Oregon... getting out to a big lead in this
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 5: game and then just totally taking their foot off the gas.
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Like I, even though Oregon
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: lost their last game, yeah, they might come out and
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 2: be pissed off early in this game or whatever and
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 2: want to stick it to their opponent. But once they
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 2: get a big lead here, I just, I don't really
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: see much incentive for them to win by 60 here
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 2: with USC coming up next. Oregon might start just going
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 2: kind of vanilla and taking out their starters and whatever,
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean?
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 5: So that's how I see that game going. That game,
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 5: the money is actually slightly indicating Georgia's taking the points
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 5: with Portland State in that one, and the total is
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 5: almost 70. I mean, it's got to be pretty high
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 5: with Oregon being a 60-point favorite almost in the game.
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 5: It's just totally ridiculous, man. Oregon is expected to score
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 5: in the 60s like themselves, basically, in that game.
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 2: Totally ridiculous. That's it, man. That's the show today. That's
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 2: going to do it. We'll have.
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 5: My college football show tonight, I suppose, because I've got
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 5: to do it right.
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 2: I have one play that I like so far.
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 5: I haven't really gone through the card fully yet, but
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 5: I have one play that I think is almost definitive.
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 5: It's a very good situational spot, and it's going to
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 5: be one nobody wants. It's going to be real ugly. So,
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 5: you know me with these ugly plays. I've got to
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 5: find some other.
• 2:01:29
  Speaker 5: I don't want to force anything, but there'll probably be
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 5: a few other things that I'll find. Anyway, we're being
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 5: really selective for Friday. We just have the Washington Nationals
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 5: in the first five. We're going to back the better
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 5: starter in this one.
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 2: I like it. The money seems to agree with me
• 2:01:41
  Speaker 2: on it. That's the only play of the day.
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 5: Washington Nationals. I think my other better leans were all
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 5: in Major League Baseball as well. Like I said, I
• 2:01:52
  Speaker 5: think the next best lean is actually the Arizona Diamondbacks.
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 5: First five would have been my next best opinion. And
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 5: then after that, I think I said.
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 2: The over in the.
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 5: Orioles-Brewers game. I think those are my three strongest opinions
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 5: in baseball. But strongest, the only play is my Washington
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 5: Nationals play. First five, that's going to do it. Thanks
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 5: for hanging out, everybody. I appreciate it. Learn to tote
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 5: on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 5: the channel here.
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 2: Hype it. Do all the stuff. Comment.
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 5: Tell people about it, you know. We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 5: You can check it out there. Covered in uke on
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 5: YouTube with my uke covers.
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 2: We got, what else?
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 5: Patreon.com slash LearnToTotem. If you want to support me over there,
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 5: just chip in to fund the habit, fund the show.
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 5: Loser cast every Tuesday night. The New York Giants G-Spot podcast.
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 5: We got to figure it out, man. I think Ben
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 5: was trying to do a show last night, but I
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 5: was not home and he did not give me any.
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 2: Warning about it.
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 5: So we got to figure it out because I do
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 5: night shows for football on Friday and Saturday. So I
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 5: don't know what we're going to do. We got to
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 5: figure it out, but that's going to do it for
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 5: me here for now. Subscribe to the channel here, obviously,
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 5: and you'll get notified when I do go live with
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 5: my football stuff. The college one is always the one
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 5: that takes the longest and.
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 2: Really, really is kind of painful. It Dude, even though
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 2: I'm just sitting here talking, it still gets tiring, man.
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 2: That's going to do it. Peace.
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 6: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 6: somebody answer. Let somebody know. You do not have.
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 4: To lose this round alone. Hold on.
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 6: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold.
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 2: On Let me pull you.
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 6: Out That bad luck bites hard But it don't get.
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 4: The crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on. You're still here now.