Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 19 - 4/9/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 19 - 4/9/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 19 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Tuesday. Our week continues to roll on
0:37
guys, and luckily we finished off March Madness on a high note
0:42
after a big night last night in two different ways.
0:45
First was our game bet. Remember we talked about
0:47
obviously the give and the take of the side and saying, hey,
0:50
Purdue, Connecticut, you know, Purdue had a good Ken Pom edge.
0:53
Ken Pom only had him losing by three.
0:55
You know, we were getting a 7 at that point.
0:56
Hey, how do you not take Purdue? But then also the other side of
0:59
the coin was, hey, Connecticut, absolute powerhouse they had
1:02
covered in 11 straight March Madness games.
1:05
They went from -6 to -7, had a good bet, split in a line move.
1:09
So how do you not just blindly take Connecticut?
1:11
So in situations like that where you kind of have, you know, both
1:14
sides of the coin, I mentioned on the pot, I didn't fault
1:17
anyone for taking Purdue in the points with the good Kenpom
1:19
edge. And I couldn't fault anyone just
1:21
continuing to ride Connecticut because it's, you know, deja vu
1:24
all over again. They continue to cover numbers.
1:26
So we bypass that and we said, hey, let's go with the clear
1:30
sharp bet that has no conflicting data.
1:32
The under. That's right as we like to call
1:34
the under, there's no ours. If you're like me in Boston,
1:37
although I'm from Western Mass, I don't have much of A Boston
1:39
accent. But yeah, the under came through
1:42
bigly for the team. Our final bet in March Madness
1:44
was a winner. Remember we talked about that
1:46
total opening around 147 1/2. We talked about that you know
1:50
public betting over big sharp reverse line move to the under
1:53
and was even better. Is that after we bet it.
1:56
You know at the time of the pod yesterday was I believe one
1:58
45144 1/2. Did you guys see where the line
2:02
closed at that Purdue, Connecticut total closed at
2:05
1:43. So tells us that we nailed that
2:08
one. Beat the closing line, beat the
2:10
market there and it was a 7560 game.
2:12
So anyone who blindly backed Connecticut you won.
2:14
But more importantly for the POD, we got our under which was
2:17
great and then also anyone cash a futures bet last night?
2:21
I know my buddy Dorush cashed it who's from the South side of
2:24
Chicago and then moved to Arizona and he was at the game
2:27
last night cashing bets left and right.
2:29
But anyone who mentioned or I had mentioned on the pod a
2:33
Connecticut futures bet, I was looking back at it.
2:36
I made a bet on UConn at 11 to 1 + 1100 on January 16th and I had
2:41
to wait a little bit but it was well worth the wait as UConn
2:44
cuts down the Nets wins their second straight national title.
2:47
So hopefully maybe you cash the futures on UConn.
2:50
Maybe you did decent in your bracket contest because you
2:53
know, Connecticut. Purdue was a chalk bracket and
2:55
chalk obviously was. That was the name of the
2:57
tournament. I would say it was one of my,
2:59
you know, one of my, not my greatest March Madness because
3:02
you know, the whole thought process of betting against the
3:04
public, going contrarian, taking dogs.
3:07
Obviously that wasn't the case because you had a lot of
3:09
favorites do very well, a lot of chalk favorites.
3:11
But it was nice to at least end on a high note with a good
3:14
winner there with a futures bet as well as the game bet there on
3:17
the under. Also give a shout out to Rhythm
3:20
as my buddy Gary Garrison tweeted out.
3:22
Rhythm had an edge on the under as well.
3:24
So it's always great when kind of the betting market and our
3:26
sharp reverse line movement to the under lined up with what
3:30
Rhythm was projecting and rhythm projected.
3:31
I believe 141. So it tells you that they were
3:34
on the sharp side of that bet too.
3:35
So either way, good end to March Madness which means now college
3:39
basketball's over. We are full steam ahead when it
3:42
comes to Major League Baseball. Now overall, looking back to our
3:45
last night, guys, 3:00 and 3:00 -0.34 units.
3:49
So basically a Washington here, but I want to mention one thing
3:51
in particular. You know we got our Yukon under,
3:53
We got our Yukon future. We also got the Phillies.
3:57
Now we lost the Mariners and the Rays, but they're two games we
4:00
want to hit on. One is the Cubs game Puke in my
4:04
mouth? Did anyone see what happened in
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the Cubs? We were going to catch a + 120
4:08
dog. The Cubs had an 8 to nothing
4:10
lead and they gave up nine runs in the last, what, 3 innings?
4:14
They lost 9 to 8. That was our first bad beat or
4:17
just disgusting terrible baseball finish.
4:20
And baseball That's going to happen.
4:21
Baseball's a a crazy sport like that.
4:24
You know you'll you'll come back from an 80 deficit.
4:25
You'll you'll lose an 80 lead. That's just the way baseball
4:28
goes with that. Cubs won.
4:29
Really hurt. That would have flipped it to a
4:31
winning night. But in particular, I wanted to
4:33
mention the Astros and the Texas Rangers game because if you guys
4:36
remember from yesterday's pod, we are focusing on the the
4:40
Houston Astros because they were a bit of a fade.
4:42
The trendy dog you know you're getting.
4:44
At one point Houston was -120. They got all the way up to one
4:47
point, -140. But then something happened and
4:51
that was important because public was on Texas.
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But something happened throughout the day where I got a
4:55
few DMS from people. I'm saying are you, are you
4:57
seeing what's going on with the Houston line?
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Like what's the deal? Houston was -140, got to -130,
5:03
got to -120, got to a pick em it hopped the fence and went to
5:07
Texas as a favorite. I'm like what's going on here?
5:09
It's got to be an injury. It's got to be something up with
5:11
one of the starting pitchers. Well, what ended up happening is
5:14
that framber Valdez, the starter for Houston, was scratched.
5:18
Now, maybe I didn't do my best to explain the importance of
5:22
this little tiny little nitty gritty thing You got to know
5:25
about betting baseball on a daily basis.
5:27
Action versus listed pitcher. So when you're betting on
5:30
baseball, you may not even notice this or a lot of you guys
5:33
and gals were listening. You probably have known this a
5:36
long time ago, but when you bet any other sport, you know it's
5:39
pretty much action. You know the line.
5:42
It doesn't matter anyone gets hurt before or after the game
5:44
that you know or before. Of course then you're going to
5:47
have to be locked into that number.
5:48
But baseball is different. Baseball gives you two options
5:51
to place a bet pre flop before the game starts.
5:53
You can do action or listed pitcher.
5:56
Now action means that whatever you bet, you're locked into your
5:59
bet is your bet is active. It'll be graded, you know, one
6:03
loss. It doesn't matter if either
6:05
starting pitcher gets scratched. Action means the bet is legit,
6:08
and it it's not going to be avoided.
6:11
If you've got listed pitcher, that's a way to protect
6:13
yourself, because listed pitcher means that you're only tied into
6:17
that game if the listed pitchers both make the first pitch or
6:20
both play. So you're basically looking at a
6:22
situation where if a guy gets scratched and you've got listed
6:25
pitcher, that's a way to protect yourself because you're not
6:28
going to get locked into a bad number, and if you like the
6:30
other side, you can just go bet it again, action, you have less
6:33
control. Obviously you're tied into
6:35
whatever happens regardless of a pitching change.
6:38
So what was funny is that when this happened, I tweeted
6:41
something out about how important it is to always bet
6:45
listed pitcher. So I'm a big listed pitcher fan.
6:48
That means that, you know, if I'm going to spend my entire
6:51
overnight, early morning, afternoon breaking down a game,
6:54
I want to know that with the game I'm betting on, and I've
6:56
capped it based upon the the two starting pitchers, if they get
7:00
scratched, I don't want to be locked into that bet.
7:02
I only want to make my bet if those two pitchers that I
7:05
handicapped for basically make the start.
7:08
Now if you go action, we always just mention that you're locked
7:11
in the bet no matter what. So when I saw Framer Valdez
7:14
officially scratched, this is what I tweeted out from at Josh
7:16
under score insights. If you want to give me a follow,
7:18
I try to give out you know some betting tips every now and
7:20
again. But I said you know quote
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reminder for MLB bettors always bet listed pitcher, not action
7:26
listed pitcher. If either starting pitcher gets
7:28
scratched, your bet is voided and refunded action, your bet
7:31
remains valid. Listed pitcher gives you more
7:34
protection and control. Don't get locked into a bad bet.
7:37
So as soon as I saw Franburg Valdez get scratched and the
7:40
line flip to the Rangers, I said, oh, that ain't good.
7:43
But you know what is? You know what is important?
7:45
That if you had that listed pitcher, that bet got voided so
7:48
you didn't have to worry about, you know, the Texas Rangers
7:50
rolling. And you have a bad luck angle
7:53
there where you bet a game based on a pitcher's pitching, you get
7:56
scratched. You're locked into it.
7:58
But here's the the other side of it and I want to give a shout
8:01
out to Cash Flow Sports at Cash Flow Sports with AZ on Twitter
8:06
he had mentioned something in terms of I want to make sure I
8:09
get this right because he made a really good point where he said
8:13
let me just pull it up here. He said this and he quoted my
8:17
tweet and he said this is a double edged sword for me at
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least. This game is a great example.
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I got Texas at plus 1/21. Valdez was listed for Houston.
8:25
If I'd bet listed pitcher, I'd be stuck having to rebuy Texas
8:28
at -130. Then he also said, but I've also
8:31
been burned on the other side of that experience.
8:33
So and I'm this tells you how long or how how I don't, you
8:37
know I'm not up on the the lingo nowadays, he says why MMVI don't
8:40
know what that stands for. But anyway the whole point being
8:43
is that ironically if you bet action you had a good angle last
8:48
night, you had a good result because if you had bet Houston
8:50
action at -120 -, 130, Houston actually won the game.
8:55
So even though for Amber Valdez got scratched, they put in a new
8:58
guy. They won the game.
8:59
So action actually helped you there.
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But my whole point is if you bet action accidentally and not a
9:05
lot of sports books nowadays, they don't even give you the
9:07
option to bet listed picture. So you got to make sure you know
9:09
there's a little tab, little triangle drop down you can
9:12
usually click which will say action or listed picture.
9:14
You can also do one picture instead of the other, like if
9:16
you only care if one guy starts versus you don't care if the
9:19
other guy gets scratched, you're locked in only that one side or
9:22
that one picture. But anyway, you got lucky.
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But if you bet action last night because Houston won anyway.
9:28
If you bet listed pitcher and you bet Houston, your bet was
9:31
voided. But here's the thing.
9:32
Once it flipped all the way to Texas -130, you could have gone
9:36
back after your bet was voided unlisted pitcher and then re bet
9:40
Houston at plus 1/15. So you you you could have either
9:43
been locked into a Houston -120 -, 130 or you could have bought
9:48
the other way and bought low on Houston at when it got reposted
9:52
readjusted to plus 110 + 120. So my whole point being guys,
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this isn't a great example because usually and I don't have
9:59
the raw data for you, but usually when a guy gets
10:01
scratched, it's a bad sign. You know the line flips to the
10:04
opponent. The opponent usually wins that
10:06
game because you know you have a new guy who's coming in, had no,
10:10
you know, forewarning, you know it's he's pretty much put in a
10:13
bad spot and the guy you wanted to pitch is probably the better
10:15
pitcher to begin with. So this is a long winded way of
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saying action versus listed pitcher.
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I would always recommend betting listed pitcher because you have
10:24
more control over your bet. And even though last night was a
10:27
bad example because Houston ended up winning the game, if
10:30
Texas wins that game 12:50, you don't want to be locked into a
10:33
Houston bad number there you either layoff you could go the
10:36
other way or you could re bet it at a better price.
10:39
So that's not a good example. But that's just kind of the
10:41
first time. I know we're only like 2 weeks
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into the season where the scratch starting pitcher came
10:46
into play. So always remember, action means
10:49
you're you're tied in the bet no matter who gets scratched or
10:51
not. Listed pitcher means you're more
10:53
protected. You're only locked into that bet
10:55
if those two listed pitchers start the game.
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So just wanted to mention that just so that it's, you know that
11:00
it's something that you know moving forward.
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And if you disagree with me and you say, hey, I'll, I'll go
11:04
action, maybe it'll benefit me like last night.
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Well maybe it will, but a lot of times it doesn't.
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So just be aware of the options that you have as the better
11:11
because again, it can save you from a loss, it can gain you a
11:14
win. It's important to know the
11:15
distinction when you're betting on baseball.
11:17
So who There we go. We just hit on action verse
11:20
listed picture. Anyway, let's get to the fun
11:22
part. Let's start breaking on some
11:23
games for today. So I have a six pack of sweats
11:27
for you. Four Major League Baseball, one
11:29
NBA, and 1A NHL on a big Tuesday.
11:32
So let's get right to MLB. So first, but on the board for
11:36
me, it's a 6:10 PM Eastern Time game and I'm going to give you
11:39
some larger favorites here. It just happened to be this way
11:41
that a lot of these larger favorites got some good sharp
11:43
line movement. So always remember it is always
11:46
bet to risk, not bet to win. So that means you're always
11:48
risking your one unit no matter regardless of the odds, your
11:51
payout will be determined by the price of the odds.
11:53
So why is that important Because the first bet that I'm on
11:55
tonight is the Cleveland Guardians and it's a bigger
11:58
number. But I've seen no buyback, good
12:01
sharp steam and a good starting pitcher advantage hopefully in
12:04
favor of Cleveland. So White Sox Cleveland we saw
12:08
Cleveland get get get the win last night they won four and
12:11
nothing against the White Sox today Cleveland open around
12:14
-190. They've been bet all the way up
12:16
to -220, So that is a 30 cents team move.
12:19
It's a huge move. I got down on Cleveland at -220.
12:23
I'm seeing some shops even closer, like -230.
12:25
So this thing is definitely an expensive price, but that's why
12:28
it's important to bet to risk, not win.
12:30
So if you are betting like me on Cleveland at -220, you're not
12:34
risking 2.2 units to win one unit.
12:36
That would be betting to win. You're just betting to risk,
12:38
which means you're risking your one unit.
12:40
If Cleveland happens to lose, you lose 1 unit just like you
12:43
know the Cubs last night who let us down.
12:45
But if they win we're going to get a little less than 1/2 unit
12:48
back. So always remember that betting
12:49
to risk versus win will save you if you lose on a on a favorite.
12:53
But anyway, I just have seen no buy back on White Sox.
12:56
I'm going to go with Cleveland here.
12:57
Tells me that even though the price keeps getting more
12:59
expensive, pros still like Cleveland.
13:02
So Cleveland -190 to -220, they're getting around 90% of
13:05
bets in dollars. So kind of a combination of both
13:08
public and sharp support. Now the pitching match up here,
13:11
hopefully knock on wood, really does favor Cleveland.
13:13
Logan Allen, the lefty is going for the Guardians two and O 2.31
13:19
ERA. He'll be going up against Mike
13:20
Soroka. Remember, he was really good
13:22
with the Braves a few years ago. Then he got hurt.
13:24
They dumped him. He's O and one with a 4.91 ERA.
13:28
Now I'm going to really bank on the offense of Cleveland.
13:31
They're hitting 268 versus only 190 for the White Sox.
13:36
White Sox. Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez
13:38
both got hurt, so that's a big, big reason why they're really
13:42
not producing here. Hopefully that continues
13:43
tonight, but 268 versus 190 better bats.
13:47
The Guardians have scored 57 runs this year.
13:50
White Sox have only scored 16. Also better team ERA, two point
13:54
O, 5 ERA versus 4.13 run differential.
13:58
Plus 36 for Cleveland, -30 for the White Sox, White Sox O and
14:03
five on the road. And here's an angle for you.
14:05
Big favorites, -200 or more. Now I think you got to pick your
14:09
spots because you got to win at such a high rate because it's
14:11
such an expensive number that you can't really bet them all.
14:13
But this just goes to show you that early in the year these big
14:16
favorites are dominating. If you're a favorite -200 or
14:19
more, these teams are 13 and 381% this year.
14:23
You might be saying yourself, hey, that's a good, you know,
14:26
one loss record. But with these big numbers, are
14:27
you even making money? Yes, you are 13 and 381 percent,
14:32
16% ROI. So you've actually been pretty
14:35
good here betting these big favorites.
14:36
So I know it's an expensive price.
14:39
Again, I don't like to go much above -200.
14:41
This is about as far as I'll go. It's even a little risky for me.
14:45
It's just expensive, you know, juice worth the squeeze, that
14:48
sort of decision. But I am going to go Cleveland
14:50
here, so shop around. I got the Guardians at -225.
14:54
It's a big number. They better win for us.
14:56
Keep on cruising. Another large number.
14:58
Yankees. Miami.
15:00
I'm going with the Yankees. Give me the Yankees.
15:04
Yankees here at home against the Marlins now.
15:06
Last night Yankees cruised, had a 7 to nothing win as a -, 150
15:11
home favorite rematch. Tonight Marlins were one, only
15:14
one in 10. They send out AJ, Puck, lefty O,
15:17
and two ERA of nine. He'll be opposed by another
15:19
lefty. Carlos Rodon O&O, 2.79 ERA.
15:24
This is another sharp line move, just happens to be, and somewhat
15:27
of an expensive price because the Yankees opened as around a
15:31
-, 170, home favorite, -180. Now they're up to -190.
15:35
So good steam in their favor tells us that smart money is
15:38
going to Yankees. They're getting about 95% of
15:41
money line bets in dollars. So heavy, lopsided support from
15:44
both pros and Joes. Now Yankees.
15:46
I'm going to bank on their offense.
15:47
They're hitting 249 versus just 210 for Miami.
15:50
Better team, ERA 2.79, verse 5.4 O Yankees.
15:54
Also much better bullpen. We saw the importance of the
15:57
bullpen. Obviously the cubbies.
15:58
I honestly, I can't get over the Cubs blowing that lead for us
16:01
last night. That was disgusting.
16:03
I read a tweet that they had won, I think like 234 straight
16:06
games when they were leading by eight runs or more.
16:08
Of course I bet on them and they that's streak end.
16:10
So what are you going to do anyway?
16:13
The team ERA bullpen 2.81 verse 5.69.
16:17
I have a betting system match on the Yankees that I really like.
16:20
Interleague favorites off a win. They're 2:30 and 1:40.
16:24
Sixty 2% since the start of last year.
16:27
Yankees are also a correlative betting play.
16:29
Bigger favorite in a low total game.
16:31
Little low total of 8 here. Few amount of expected runs
16:34
scored. More likely to come from the
16:35
better team. Yankees by the way.
16:38
Two and O and Rodon's first two starts.
16:40
Marlins O and two and Puck's first two starts.
16:43
So good sharp steam for the Yankees.
16:45
I'm a Sox fan, but I'm going Yankees today.
16:47
Give me the Yankees shop round. I got New York at -190.
16:52
Another decently high price here, but it's a good, sharp
16:55
steam move and I want to get behind it.
16:57
The Dodgers. Let's go, Dodgers.
16:59
Dodgers are on the road at Minnesota.
17:01
Last night we saw the Dodgers win four to two.
17:04
Took care of business as a -, 135 Rd. favorite.
17:07
Now tonight the Dodgers are going with Tyler Glass.
17:09
Now two and O 3.18 dot ERA. He'll be opposed by Louis
17:14
Varland, O and one 6.75 ERA for Minnesota.
17:18
What have we seen here? Well, Lions going to the
17:20
Dodgers. Dodgers open around a -, 170 Rd.
17:24
Favorite Dodgers at one point got close to -200.
17:27
They're back down to around -190 -, 185 at this point.
17:31
So if you haven't bet it yet, you're getting a little bit of a
17:33
better number. Also because looks like maybe
17:35
some Minnesota bites at the apple there from wiseguys said
17:38
the the value of Minnesota plus money was worth it.
17:41
But either way, from the open to current, it has been going to
17:43
the Dodgers. Dodgers getting upwards of 90%
17:47
of money line bets in dollars. So pretty lopsided support in
17:49
their favor. I'm going to bank on the Dodgers
17:52
edge at the plate. They're hitting 279 versus only
17:55
181 for the Twins. Angels or sorry.
17:58
Los Angeles has scored 73 runs, Hit seventeen home runs this
18:02
year. Minnesota has only hit 4 homers
18:04
and scored 23 runs. So a big boost advantage here.
18:08
Edge on offense for the Dodgers angle that I love here.
18:12
Rd. favorites Very simple. Rd. favorites in MLB this year.
18:15
30 and 1370% Dodgers have an interleague favorite Value value
18:21
play. Lack of familiarity benefits the
18:23
better team and I mentioned this one.
18:25
This is the same one with the Yankees but interleague
18:26
favorites off a win 62% to start the year or since the start of
18:30
last season. And the Dodgers by the way.
18:32
Three and O and glass. Now's first three starts.
18:34
So Dodgers here are play for me shop round.
18:38
You can now get the Dodgers around -185.
18:41
Then last play of the night. One team that did come through
18:44
for us last night. I'm going right back to the
18:45
well, the Phillies baby. Let's go Phills.
18:48
Philly is on the road at Saint Louis.
18:50
This is a good match up here to back Philly for a couple
18:53
reasons. So last night had to sweat it
18:55
out. Philly's won five to three and
18:56
extras actually had a two run lead going into the ninth.
18:59
They blew it. Had to go to extras and win it.
19:01
Whatever it takes. That's fine with me.
19:02
But they sure did make a sweat now looking toward tonight.
19:05
Zach Wheeler, ace of Philly going on the bump here.
19:08
O and one 0.75 ERA though Cardinals are going with Sonny
19:12
Gray, he was eight and eight with a 2.79 ERA last year.
19:16
He's making his debut. He was pushed back, I believe
19:18
with an injury he had late in spring training.
19:21
But anyway, what have we seen across the market?
19:23
Pretty decent price and a good sharp steam move in favor of
19:26
Philly. Philly open around -120.
19:29
They've now been bet up to around -130.
19:31
I see some shops even like -135 S good steam move in favor of
19:35
the Phills. Really no buyback whatsoever on
19:38
Saint Louis. You look at the fills, they're
19:40
getting around 80% of bets and dollars.
19:41
Once again, lopsided Pro and Joe Support Phillies have the better
19:45
bats. 13233 versus 217 for Saint Louis.
19:49
Better team ERA as well four point O 5 versus 4.55.
19:53
Same system matches as the couple games we talked about.
19:55
Rd. favorites 30 and 1370%. Another one I love.
19:59
Non Division Rd. favorites off a win 11 and six this year. 65
20:03
percent 525 and three 4660%. Since 2021, Phillies have value
20:09
as a favorite. Low total.
20:10
Growth of betting value. And we have seen Wheeler, even
20:14
though he's O and one on the year, he's only given up one run
20:17
in 12 innings pitched. And also mentioned, I saw this
20:19
tweet right before the pod started.
20:21
Sonny Gray, who's going for Saint Louis today, he'll be
20:23
limited to 65 to 70 pitches. And remember these teams went to
20:27
extra innings yesterday. So if your starters only going
20:29
6570 pitches, that's going to be tough on a bullpen here that
20:32
might be taxed. So hopefully that's on their
20:34
edge to Philly. SO4 bets here.
20:37
We got to get three of them, guys.
20:38
Let's see if we can get three between Cleveland, the Yankees,
20:41
the Dodgers and the Phillies. Keep on cruising.
20:44
Couple more bets for you. Now let's go to the NHLI.
20:48
Have one bet here that caught my eye.
20:49
It is a late night game between the Kings and the Anaheim Ducks.
20:54
Now, this is a 10:00 game. The Ducks are eliminated from
20:58
the postseason. The Kings are fighting for a
21:01
good playoff spot here. Now it's a big number toward the
21:04
Kings. They open like -250.
21:06
They're up to like -280, you know.
21:08
Again, to me that's now too expensive to bet.
21:11
You could go puck line if you want to, you know, cut it down a
21:13
little bit. The kings on the puck line are,
21:17
that's the spread -1 1/2 at like -110 that's kind of appealing,
21:21
but I'm going to go with the total here.
21:23
I'm going to go over 5 1/2 goals.
21:25
Can we get six goals or more tonight?
21:28
Reason being couple things here. First, the over 5 1/2 is pretty
21:31
juiced up. It's 5 1/2 / -, 115 -, 120
21:36
across the board. So liability over.
21:38
It's all been juiced up over since the total opened.
21:42
Currently 75% of bets, 81% of money is going over.
21:46
So again, this is a lower bet sport when it comes to hockey,
21:49
but it tells me that we have a least low bets, higher dollars
21:52
and heavy betting here on the over.
21:54
Now the goalie matchup, I believe it's going to be Cam
21:57
Talbot. He's been pretty good, 2.48
22:00
goals against 9/16 save percentage.
22:01
But in April, in the month of April, he's got a goals against
22:04
of three-point O 4. But I'm really going to bank on
22:07
this kid, and again I call him a kid.
22:09
Poor kid, hopefully gives up a lot of goals.
22:11
Dostal or Dostal, he is the backup, but he's getting the
22:16
start tonight and he's got a 3.47 goals against 8/18 save
22:22
percentage. But in the month of April he's
22:24
got a 3.59 goals against. He's given up three plus goals
22:27
in six straight games. Anaheim has given up the second
22:31
most goals in the league this year, the average giving up
22:34
3.62. I was looking at the Kings in
22:37
particular as well as when the total is low a 5 1/2 total.
22:41
When the total is 5 1/2 the over is 87 and 75 This year 54%.
22:46
So the majority have gone over when we have this low total.
22:49
And the kings by the way when the total is 5 1/2 are 12:00 and
22:52
5:00 to the over. So is this a you know 5 to one
22:55
game? You know four to two Game 6
22:59
nothing game. I don't know.
23:00
Whatever it takes. We just need six goals.
23:02
Here again, Kings are a big favorite, but Anaheim scored
23:06
five and their offense been putting up some goals here
23:08
recently. I know they lost six to five in
23:10
overtime against the Blues, but I'm baking on some offense here.
23:13
Can we get six goals? That is the goal you like.
23:17
That little little pun play on words, but I'm going Kings and
23:21
Ducks over 5 1/2. I got over 5 1/2 at -115, then
23:27
last bit of the day on a big Tuesday here.
23:29
Let's go to the association, the NBA.
23:32
Even though I hate it, I can't quit it.
23:34
To me, the NBAI don't know if you guys agree.
23:36
I think it's the hardest sport to bet.
23:38
You know, to me, my favorite sports are NFL, college
23:40
basketball. I mean, I'm a baseball die hard.
23:42
I love hockey. I love it all.
23:44
But you know NBA, it's frustrating because you got guys
23:48
who are injured, don't know if they'll play or not, and just
23:51
can be very erratic, more so than other sports.
23:53
But I did find one bet that I feel like we might have an edge
23:56
on here and that is Magic and Rockets.
23:59
It's an 8:00 game here tonight. Did you guys know that the Magic
24:03
or the third seed in the east, They've had a really good year
24:05
by the way. Houston has been eliminated, but
24:09
I was entertaining the Magic a little bit.
24:10
They went from -2 to -3 on the road at the Rockets and might
24:15
even be going to 3 1/2. Pretty much one sided movement
24:17
on the Rockets. But I'm going to actually look
24:19
toward the over here because I've been seeing a lot of smart
24:22
money hit this over and I feel like I've lost so many overs
24:26
recently that I'm like due. And again, I don't don't know.
24:28
You don't want to operate betting based on the due theory,
24:31
but I feel like at some point you know, hopefully these one of
24:34
these fly over. But anyway, rockets and magic
24:37
over the total open at 212 1/2, it's now been bet up to 214 1/2.
24:43
Some books, even 2:15, I was able to get over 214 1/2.
24:47
You might only be able to get a 215 shop around, but we're
24:50
pretty much around that ballpark.
24:52
Currently 84% of bets, 94% of the money is going over.
24:57
So it tells us we have a preponderance of both public and
24:59
smart money going over. Now a couple of reasons like
25:02
this over. One is that when you have a low
25:05
total of 217 or less, the over this year is 73 and 5458%.
25:11
So it goes to show that these lower totals are flying over.
25:14
I also like the fact this is a short spread.
25:16
You know you only have magic favored by three.
25:18
So of course short spreads. We like overs or lean overs more
25:22
than unders because you know short spread.
25:24
Typically the odds makers are saying hey this could be a
25:26
competitive game. It's back and forth maybe get
25:28
overtime as opposed to an under. You want a big spread.
25:33
Also non conference overs, lack of familiarity, really don't
25:37
play each other very often. Benefit to the over because you
25:39
don't know how to match up defensively.
25:41
Then the Rockets in particular, this is more because it it's
25:44
worrisome to me because the Magic are a slower team and
25:47
they're really good defensively. But hopefully the Rockets you
25:50
know are the reason why we cash this over because for the year
25:53
they're 40 and 37 to the over, nothing that impressive, but
25:58
they are 13 and six to the over since March 1st.
26:01
So basically over the last month and a half month and a little
26:04
bit here, they are one of the best over teams in the NBA.
26:08
They are covering or they're hitting you over at a 68% clip.
26:11
Since March 1st, and in particular in their last ten
26:14
games, they're averaging 118 points and giving up 119 points.
26:19
This is a team that again Emma Udoka is a really good defensive
26:23
mind, but maybe just don't have the personnel.
26:25
Whatever the case may be, their defense hasn't been great, their
26:28
offense has been pretty good, and we do have a low toll that's
26:30
on the rise with an over system match.
26:32
So I'm going to go over here, shop around Magic and Rockets.
26:36
Ideally over 214 1/2 if not over 215, but shop around.
26:41
Try to get the 214 half if you can find this.
26:43
I know at least one book I'm looking at.
26:45
My live odds page still has that number if not over 215, but that
26:49
about does it 6. Pack there as we turn the page
26:53
and end March Madness. Although we ended on a hot note
26:55
with our Yukon future and our under Last night 6 pack for
26:59
tonight, let's see if we can we get four or more.
27:01
That'll be the goal. Grind out of four and two.
27:04
See if we can make some money today.
27:05
Now that being said, if you enjoy the All Systems Go Sports
27:10
betting podcast if it's become, I know it's early here, but this
27:13
ain't my first rodeo. I've been doing pods for a while
27:16
and nearly hit 1000 on the previous pod I was doing.
27:19
But anyway, this is now my own pod which I am very grateful for
27:22
and very honored to to host. But anyway, if the pod has
27:25
helped you at all to become a sharper sports, better if you
27:28
enjoy and look forward to the breakdowns each day, obviously
27:31
we hope every bet will win. Realistically not every bet will
27:34
win, but are you learning to become a sharper better?
27:36
How to read the market? How to locate value?
27:38
How to locate an edge? Are you learning about how to go
27:41
contrarian and taking an opposing view and looking at
27:44
line movement and system matches and bankroll management?
27:47
And now you know what action verse listed pitcher means or
27:49
bet Tris verse bet to win. If any of that is the case and
27:52
you enjoy this pod, there's two things I want you to do 1 cost
27:56
you nothing. All you got.
27:57
It'll take just five seconds of your time.
28:00
Go give this pod five stars on Spotify as well as iTunes.
28:04
Don't really mean a lot to me, if you want to.
28:07
I don't even know what the other platforms are, but it's pretty
28:10
cool. On Spotify, I post the pod.
28:12
I learned about an RSS feed, so it gets, you know, spewed out to
28:16
all the different platforms. But I can look at like, who's
28:19
listening to it, the demographics.
28:21
It's really interesting. Actually.
28:23
I'm learning more about podcasting, but I know the two
28:25
top ways people are listening are Spotify one and iTunes two.
28:28
So thank you for listening. And please, if you could give it
28:31
five stars, that would really, really mean a lot to me.
28:34
Secondly, if you enjoy the pod you like the breakdowns, you
28:36
want to make my day make me happy.
28:38
Let me know you appreciate the hard work that I put in grinding
28:40
in the arena each day teaching the sharp data-driven contrarian
28:43
model. Then you know what you can do.
28:45
You can go buy my book, support the team only cost about 20
28:48
bucks. You're going to learn a lot
28:50
about sports betting and how to be a data-driven better.
28:53
All you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
28:56
Everything Guide to sports betting, pick up a copy for you
28:58
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
29:00
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
29:03
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
29:05
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
29:08
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
29:11
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
29:13
Betting. So pick one up when I see at the
29:15
book, I'll buy you a beer and I'll sign it for you.
29:18
That about does it for episode 19 of the All Systems Go Sports
29:21
Betting podcast. Reminder whether I see you at
29:24
the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
29:27
Brooklyn New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
29:29
Down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plainridge
29:32
Park Casino, MGM Springfield. Where I'm at in Massachusetts.
29:36
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
29:38
Where Billy Walters sends his number Runners.
29:40
Where the lowest choose possible is found at the South point Or
29:43
of course, out at stadium Swim. Jumping in the pool getting a
29:46
victory burger hanging in front of the big screen at Circa.
29:49
Wherever the case may be. You're going to walk up to me
29:51
You know show me some tickets from last night.
29:53
Show me a UConn under ticket. Show me a Phillies ticket.
29:56
Show me an Astros ticket. Hopefully if you you know we're
29:58
lucky to have action. Or list the picture on that one.
30:02
Or or bet it when the line moved too much.
30:04
Or more importantly, show me a Yukon Futures.
30:07
Isn't it nice to to cash up 11 to 1 + 1100?
30:11
That is pretty awesome. Whatever you do, do not ever,
30:14
ever show me that Cubs ticket. I can't believe we had an 8
30:16
nothing lead on a + 120 dog and the Cubs blew it for us.
30:20
That is about as bad as it gets. So anyway, isn't it funny?
30:23
You know you love your wins, but you really focus on the losses.
30:26
That's just how sports betting works.
30:27
I'll I will. I'll never forget the Cubs
30:29
blowing it for me. And if you guys were watching
30:30
that game, like, I didn't have it on.
30:32
TVI was watching just on my ESPN app.
30:35
It was the bottom of the eighth and it was eight to seven.
30:38
Cubs are up by 1 and Tatis comes to the plate.
30:41
I'm like, yeah, he'll probably hit a Homer.
30:42
What did he do? He hit a Homer and we lost the
30:44
game. Two run shot.
30:45
So anyway, what are you going to do?
30:47
Well, flash one of those for me. Guys, guess what?
30:48
First one's on me, next one's on you.
30:50
We're going to post about the book, Sweat sharp.
30:52
Conturion plays all night long. Lastly, before we get out of
30:55
here, have you signed up and gotten your rhythm free trial?
31:00
If you haven't, I want you to do that today.
31:02
All you got to do is go and if you don't know about rhythm, I
31:05
should mention this. It's the ultimate AI sports
31:07
betting app for data, back pics and props.
31:09
All you got to do is download the rhythm app and start making
31:12
smarter bets today, which I know I helped Gary Garrison Cash is
31:15
under in the championship game. But anyway, there's a specific
31:18
way I want you to sign up for Rhythm.
31:20
You all you got to do is go to my Twitter page at Josh under
31:23
Score Insights and you're going to click the pinned tweet at the
31:26
very top of my profile. It's going to have a a little
31:29
blurb, the trailer for the pod and then a link, custom link to
31:32
go sign up for Rhythm. Click that custom link and then
31:35
that way Rhythm knows that I refer to you, which is
31:37
important. Also I wanted to mention this,
31:40
you can sign up for a Rhythm free trial within the Spotify
31:44
description of the pod. It's also there listed as well.
31:47
So either way, get that free trial, give it a shot, start
31:50
making smarter bets today. With that being said, whether I
31:53
see you, actually I already told you that my parting words.
31:57
As always. Of course we always want to find
32:00
that sweet spot against the public, with the house, with the
32:03
pros, Flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
32:06
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
32:08
guys. Will every sharp play win?
32:10
Of course not. We're playing the course of the
32:12
long run, always trying to be sharp data-driven better.
32:16
So enjoy the sweats guys. See if we can cash some tickets.
32:19
Here again, college hoops is over.
32:20
Good ending to it. Now we are really wall to wall
32:23
with Major League Baseball, which I love grinding baseball
32:26
every day. So let's get some winners.
32:28
Enjoy the sweats. Everyone have a great Tuesday.
32:30
We'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 20 of the All Systems Go
32:33
Sports Betting Podcast powered by Rhythm.
32:36
Good luck everybody. Have a great night.