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Bitcoin's Worst Fears Are Happening Now?🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin's worst fear maybe happening right now will break down
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of things that are coming together at maybe
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the worst possible time. You guys don't want to miss it.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Let's just jump right in. I do want to thank
• 0:10
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• 0:13
  Speaker 1: where you guys can get into a CRYPTOIRA as well
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: as gold and silver. And one of the things that
• 0:19
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• 0:52
  Speaker 1: A couple of points I want to lead off with.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: The first one is where we are starting to see
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit of the strategy break down with strategy,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: take a look.
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Folks, I think we're scratching their heads as to why.
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: They chose to retire these bonds over keeping a cash
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: surplus for immediate dividend payments.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: The market was worried that they weren't going to be
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: able to satisfy the dividend. So what did they do?
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: They went out there and raised about two billion dollars
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: in a combination of more preferreds and more stock and said, Okay,
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: now you at least don't have to worry about it
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  Speaker 2: for a year and a half because we have this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: two billion dollars sitting on the balance sheet that's going
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: to be used solely to pay dividends to the preferreds.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Everyone breathed a sigh of relief. Okay, these guys, you know,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: maybe there's no long term solution, but at least the
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: short term solutions. They have the money. And then what
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: does he do a month later? He turns around and
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: takes one point four billion of that cash cushion and
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: buys back some of his convertible debt at ninety two
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  Speaker 2: cents the dollar, Completely the opposite of what he said
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: the cash was for he retired twenty twenty nine maturity debt,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: which doesn't come due obviously for three more years. Just
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: a complete balance sheet mismanagement. And now that you know
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: one and a half year cash cushion that he had
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  Speaker 2: to pay, the preferreds all of a sudden fell to
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  Speaker 2: four months. So what happens. Market starts freaking out again,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: and then he comes out on Monday and says, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: we're actually going to sell some bitcoin, even though it
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: was a nominal amount. It's teasing the market that that's
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  Speaker 2: the only choice he has now is to sell bitcoin.
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  Speaker 2: And that's why bitcoin's umploading. That's why the stock is imploading,
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  Speaker 2: and that's why last tar' strc is back down to
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  Speaker 2: ninety seven. There's no avenue here other than letting one
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  Speaker 2: part of the capitol structure die. Fourth option is you
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  Speaker 2: just stop paying the dividend on the preferreds. Not only
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  Speaker 2: is that a death sentence for the preferreds because they're
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  Speaker 2: going to trade down thirty or forty percent if he
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  Speaker 2: does that, he's also going to get sued because they've
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  Speaker 2: been marketing this as like this. You know, he's been
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: marketing these preferreds as like a money market instrument or
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  Speaker 2: retail So I think that's a last resort.
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  Speaker 1: The mismanagement they're talking about there maybe in play here
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  Speaker 1: with spaung Lee saying he's open to listening to some
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  Speaker 1: of the people that are complaining so much on crypto.
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  Speaker 3: Take a look, seventy percent of people like strategy, thirty
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: percent hate strategy. Of that thirty percent out of haters,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: twenty four percent of all the people to hit just
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: to hate. And so I just dismissed those books. Then
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: I'll call it the six percent of people who talk
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  Speaker 3: about strategy who are haters who actually have a foundation
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  Speaker 3: based off of education and research to not like what
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: we're doing. You have to listen to them. What are
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: they saying, right, Why are they saying Because within there,
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: within that there are nuggets of truth. It can change
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: your position, it can change your product, it can change
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: your philosophy if you understand those nuggets of truth.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So very interesting that they are now starting
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  Speaker 1: to listen to the market, and especially in the sense
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  Speaker 1: of where they may even adjust products and services.
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  Speaker 2: All right.
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  Speaker 1: So now you have that side of the of the token,
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  Speaker 1: the other side of the token that you have to
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: look at is that there is a battle brewing that
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  Speaker 1: may not even have anything to do with strategy. Here
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  Speaker 1: is Matthew Crator from Bitcoin University kind of breaking it down.
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  Speaker 4: Take a look.
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  Speaker 5: The market is pricing in a governance crisis, which we're
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: currently experiencing in Bitcoin. Per of the network moving away
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: from Bitcoin Core to bitcoinnots. Price of bitcoin peaked when
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: Bitcoin Core version thirty came out. And what the network
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  Speaker 5: and what the market's discovering is Bitcoin has a serious
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: governance problem where a bunch of a highly centralized group
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  Speaker 5: of Bitcoin Core maintainers decide to make some changes to
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: menpool policy. That's definitely not good for bitcoin. So if
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: you want the price of bitcoin to go up, you
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  Speaker 5: just need to use it as money yourself. When you
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: go to your farmer's market on Saturday, try to paint
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  Speaker 5: the merchants using bitcoin.
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  Speaker 1: So his last statement there was one that I think
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  Speaker 1: is the most perplexing, and that's trying to use bitcoin
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  Speaker 1: as money. This is the problem that has been really
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  Speaker 1: kind of brewing for some time. Even if you look
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  Speaker 1: at the recent news on MasterCard launching on Solana, if
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  Speaker 1: they're even XRP this I think really puts Bitcoin in
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: a bad position. So some other companies that would get
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  Speaker 1: a follow on effect on this is when we look
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  Speaker 1: at the IPOs of Bitcoin orient Orientation, and one of them,
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  Speaker 1: of course is go Bigg Holdings, which is a large
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  Speaker 1: part of Wrap Bitcoins. So imagine what kind of impact
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  Speaker 1: this we'll have if we continue to see this kind
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  Speaker 1: of pressure, especially on wrap bitcoin into the DeFi model
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  Speaker 1: of this. This is not something that I think is
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  Speaker 1: going to slow down. The real question is is where
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  Speaker 1: does it relief? That's the relief valve. Then you look
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  Speaker 1: at the other side, because there's a handful of other
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  Speaker 1: companies out there that are actually doing okay. Per is
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  Speaker 1: a good example of this is hyper Liquid Strategies. They
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  Speaker 1: have started to see an absolute reverse of what we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing on other IPOs that are crypto related, primarily on bitcoin,
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  Speaker 1: and this is something that I think we have to
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  Speaker 1: break down. I want to go to a clip that
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  Speaker 1: kind of explains this a little bit more. Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: Perpetuals are a brand new financial product. Every single major
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  Speaker 4: Wall Street bank is staring at hyper Liquid every single day,
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  Speaker 4: especially over the weekend. And what I love about this
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  Speaker 4: is that everyone who has been involved in the crypto
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  Speaker 4: space or financial markets. They have this negative stigma toward
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  Speaker 4: treasury companies and all they can think about is sailor
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  Speaker 4: and micro strategy going down and stretch, and I'm just like,
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  Speaker 4: that's perfect. You're extrapolating that scenario to this one, which
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  Speaker 4: is just going to pull more people in when it
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  Speaker 4: actually squeezes PER. They've done what no other treasury company
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  Speaker 4: has done, which is buy back their own shares and
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  Speaker 4: create shareholder value instead of diluting shareholders, which there's a
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  Speaker 4: reason why Goldman Sachs bought Per and not the ETF.
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  Speaker 4: But at the end of the day, the most liquid
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  Speaker 4: place that if someone wants to get exposure and buy
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  Speaker 4: out of the money calls on hyper liquid, it is
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  Speaker 4: only going to take place on PER. So pull all
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  Speaker 4: of those factors together, we are already beginning to see
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  Speaker 4: a gamma squeeze take place that systematically forces them to
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  Speaker 4: buy the underlying stock and hedge their risk, which in
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  Speaker 4: itself pushes up the stock. And that's why we've had
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  Speaker 4: we had the largest day of volume on Friday of
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  Speaker 4: last week into the close as we had the initial
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  Speaker 4: push of that gamma squeeze, are having higher strikes listed
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  Speaker 4: stack on top of all of those that, like you,
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  Speaker 4: have incredible mean potential.
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  Speaker 2: Just for Per itself.
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  Speaker 4: You know twenty twenty one game stop that occurred in
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  Speaker 4: the context of a credit cycle melt up. We are
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  Speaker 4: seeing almost an exact parallel in terms of the credit cycle.
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  Speaker 6: All right.
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  Speaker 1: So when you look at that clip, one of the
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  Speaker 1: things that you consider is when you're looking at situations
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  Speaker 1: right now where they're shorting micro strategy and also Bitcoin,
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  Speaker 1: this is essentially adding fuel to the fire for hyperlinqual
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  Speaker 1: which is really I think showing up not only in
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  Speaker 1: the charts, but obviously even in the publicly traded companies
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  Speaker 1: like Per. And that's where we're starting to see institutional
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  Speaker 1: capital kind of deviate away from ETFs and into this.
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  Speaker 1: So just pay very close attention to this. Further into this,
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  Speaker 1: you have to look at this clip, which is getting
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  Speaker 1: into the point of has bitcoin lost its plot? Take
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  Speaker 1: a look.
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  Speaker 6: You know, black Rock all launching token ice funds. It's
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  Speaker 6: like thirty billion in value, three hundred billion in stable coins.
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  Speaker 6: So and this is all a lot of this is
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  Speaker 6: powered by crypto infrastructure. By the way, a lot of
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  Speaker 6: this runs on ethereum, so I don't think crypto is dead.
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  Speaker 6: I don't want to tell people you know, this is over,
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  Speaker 6: but I do think that we need to reclaim the
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  Speaker 6: narrative and just again come back to what made bitcoin unique.
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  Speaker 7: No, I think crypto in the infrastructure one, but that
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  Speaker 7: has nothing to do with the price of bitcoin. There's
• 8:20
  Speaker 7: never been a compelling case. Digital gold was the most
• 8:23
  Speaker 7: compelling use case, and it's up to gold has thousands
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  Speaker 7: of years of history to prove that it can hold
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  Speaker 7: up over time, and bitcoin it remains an open question.
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  Speaker 6: And also you mentioned gold. This is such a good point.
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  Speaker 6: I think this is that's such a big part of
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  Speaker 6: the problem because I think bitcoin was supposed to be
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  Speaker 6: digital gold, you know, this hedge against global instability.
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  Speaker 2: But digital gold.
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  Speaker 6: Is being outshown by actual gold. I mean, I think
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  Speaker 6: the incredible performance of gold is a big part of
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  Speaker 6: the story.
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  Speaker 1: To what they were saying there on that clip. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: if you look at bitcoin dominance, obviously we've seen this
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  Speaker 1: fall off down to one of its lowest point in
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: a while fifty eight point five four or five right
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: now in comparison to others. This of course is holding
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: up fairly well in fact performing right now. So this
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  Speaker 1: is the narrative not to mention what we've seen with
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: all coin performance over the last sixty and ninety days
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  Speaker 1: in comparison to Bitcoin, So all of this not playing
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  Speaker 1: well for Bitcoin. The other thing that kind of puts
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a stake in the heart right now, at least in
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: the sense of looking at a global world reserve asset,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: is that now gold is that gold has overtaken US
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. This changes the
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: game dramatically. Then you have to kind of consider who
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: is the micro strategy of gold well right now that
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: is tether holding the top five position right now, especially
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: in global foreign reserves, so larger than most countries out there.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So this continues to be a big, big issue as
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: we look at gold becoming a true store of value
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: other things. Of course, Tether right there continuing to build.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: This is the other thing that kind of breaks the issue,
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  Speaker 1: which is that we're seeing gold build on everything else
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  Speaker 1: and you look at this right here, which is the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: worst nightmare I think for a bitcoin investor, is that
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  Speaker 1: gold is being built now within XRP. That's right, it's
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: one of the fastest growing ones. If you look at
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: right here jmwh just token. That's the XRP ledger guys
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  Speaker 1: holding at a number three position right now, behind number two,
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  Speaker 1: behind tether goold itself at two point two billions. So
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  Speaker 1: this of course is a cataclysmic approach if gold and
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  Speaker 1: XRP start to see performance where Bitcoin starts to struggle.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: So many things happening in the market right now, all right,
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  Speaker 1: So if you think about the hyper liquid narrative, which
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: has been winning, okay in comparison to what's been happening
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: in bitcoin over the past few months. You go over
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: to this chart right here, and this is hyper liquid
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: versus polymarket and Calci. There is hyper liquid sliding slightly,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: but cal she expanding, polymarket both expanding. Now, think about
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: this for a second, because if we start to see
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: an IPO season of predictive markets, the opportunity could be
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: absolutely astronomical. Because remember the valuation of these companies, they
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: are minuscule in comparison to something like a SpaceX or
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: an Anthropic. These may actually be the hidden gems of
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: potential IPOs coming down the pipe. So be on the
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: lookout for those right there. And this is an interesting
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: take right now because media is now trying to play
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: against this almost I want you to listen to what
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Andrew Sorkin had to say. Take a look, I.
• 11:38
  Speaker 8: Know if you so.
• 11:38
  Speaker 9: Gary Gensler was in Baron's recently and was talking about
• 11:42
  Speaker 9: how when the original rules came about for prediction markets
• 11:46
  Speaker 9: that there was never a conversation about sports betting. What
• 11:50
  Speaker 9: do you make of that?
• 11:51
  Speaker 8: Gary Gensler also the man who said every crypto asset
• 11:54
  Speaker 8: is a security, and then that's very obvious. I think
• 11:57
  Speaker 8: he has a little bit of trouble reading statutes.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: I've read.
• 12:00
  Speaker 9: You've read the statue if I go on Twitter and
• 12:03
  Speaker 9: tell people that I think the Knicks are going to win,
• 12:09
  Speaker 9: and then I bet against the Knicks. Is when I
• 12:12
  Speaker 9: tell everybody that I think the Knicks are going to win,
• 12:14
  Speaker 9: and you too should go bet on the Knicks.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: What is the what? No?
• 12:19
  Speaker 9: But this is this is a fundamental question about how
• 12:22
  Speaker 9: this whole system works.
• 12:24
  Speaker 8: In the context of a sports derivative. We'd look at
• 12:26
  Speaker 8: it the same way as an oil derivative or any
• 12:28
  Speaker 8: other type of commodity derivative.
• 12:30
  Speaker 9: But how does that work in the context of sports.
• 12:32
  Speaker 9: It's just a totally it's a different Do you see
• 12:34
  Speaker 9: what I'm saying.
• 12:35
  Speaker 8: It's really not so different. It's no different than manipulating
• 12:38
  Speaker 8: the outcome of what the price of a stock is
• 12:40
  Speaker 8: going to be.
• 12:41
  Speaker 9: I'm saying, let's say there's I don't know, somebody who
• 12:45
  Speaker 9: you think has a large following online and a reputation
• 12:52
  Speaker 9: and therefore tells people this is what I think is
• 12:54
  Speaker 9: going to happen, and whether that has any impact on
• 12:57
  Speaker 9: these things. Do you think that that would be considered
• 12:59
  Speaker 9: some kind of manipulation and how would you treat that?
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: You mean, maybe like CNBC does and Bloomberg does every
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: day in news they talk about this every day. That's
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: exactly the point that I think this, of course alleviates.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, Sorkin, I think maybe not necessarily
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: understanding how these markets work. Celia course setting there kind
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: of trying to be very polite and saying, Okay, that's
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: basically a dumbass answer. But let's move forward, guys, And
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: that's talking about clarity. I want to go into this
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: right now because polymarket is on the move in terms
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: of clarity probability, and there is something that occurred that
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: pushed this up a little bit, and it may be
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: one of the things that gets a lot of attention
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: in DC, and that is this right here. The Blockchain
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Association pulled a pretty good tactic here. What they did
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: was they got a whole bunch of people in national
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: security and law enforcement to flood the capital and come
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: in and talk about how Clarity actually strengthens law enforcement tools.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Strengthen law enforcement tools, them doing a whole presentation on
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the demo, doing a whole situation on national security, which
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: is a big concern right now. Even Scott Besson was
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: on talking about this national security, this is what is
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: at risk. Now you're talking about law enforcement saying, hey, listen,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: we think this can actually help law enforcement catch the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: bad guys. So when you compare this, because remember a
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: lot of this has been going after Diamond, which is
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest anti Clarity Act proponents out there.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: He's gone on recon many times, kind of challenged the
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: whole issue that bitcoin and different crypto is for criminals. This,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: of course was the example of what the Blockchain Association did.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: This is the list of people that they just started
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: getting signature after signature. Former special Agent Let's go down here,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: US Department of Justice, go down here. Asset Recovery Section
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: of the DOJ. Let's go down here, FBI special Agent
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: in charge. These are the people that signed this petition
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: going into the Senate and of course into Congress, trying
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to get them into a position understanding that Clarity does
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: resolve a lot of the issues around national security. So
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: a lot's going to happen, I think coming down the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: pipe here very quickly. One last point is that if
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Clarity does go through, it is going to end up
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: helping a lot of the competitors, will say of bitcoins,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: so we may see some liquidity runs within those, especially
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: if you think about Ethereum, Salona and many other projects
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: out there that are going to benefit from this. That
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: is another fear of where bitcoin stands today. So big
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: challenges right now for bitcoin. We'll see how this plays out,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: obviously with Clarity getting very close because it's now at
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: least pending being on the calendar, So stay tuned right here.
• 15:53
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• 15:55
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• 15:59
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