Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Market Uncertainty Surges!đšInflation, War, AIđ„Bitcoin Breaking $81k?
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: A market shock is underway. CPI came in hot. What
- 0:03Speaker 1: does that do to the market? Well, today we'll talk
- 0:05Speaker 1: about it and take a look. But before we do that,
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- 0:37Speaker 1: going to have to start tax planning soon. And IRAs
- 0:39Speaker 1: are one of the diversification things that you should be
- 0:41Speaker 1: doing to set yourself up for success. Let's get started.
- 0:45Speaker 1: I want to take a look at the first thing,
- 0:48Speaker 1: which of course is the soaring energy prices that are
- 0:50Speaker 1: pushing inflation higher. If you look at where the annual
- 0:53Speaker 1: CPI change is, 3.7, much hotter than expected. And the
- 0:58Speaker 1: issue really boils down to a couple of key areas.
- 1:01Speaker 1: One of them that is focused on is energy. Energy,
- 1:05Speaker 1: of course, both fuel oil, gasoline. And of course, when
- 1:08Speaker 1: you look at fuel oil in general, that's mostly diesel
- 1:11Speaker 1: that's causing a lot of this. But in addition to that,
- 1:14Speaker 1: Look at the list of other items on here. Airfare,
- 1:17Speaker 1: non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, hospital services. I'll talk about that in
- 1:22Speaker 1: a second. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair. Used cars and
- 1:26Speaker 1: trucks also up. Everything that pretty much people are looking
- 1:30Speaker 1: on to on a daily basis has started to take
- 1:32Speaker 1: a price hike. And that, of course, I think is
- 1:34Speaker 1: one of the reasons we're seeing these CPIs come in. Remember, though,
- 1:37Speaker 1: that the ACA marketplace actually got So you're essentially in
- 1:43Speaker 1: a position now where medical fees are going to start
- 1:47Speaker 1: to really affect Americans. And you're seeing it right here
- 1:50Speaker 1: as the enrollment, of course, has started to fall. And
- 1:54Speaker 1: with that, you kind of compare just the Millman Medical Index.
- 1:57Speaker 1: I'll just show you this right here. This is the
- 1:59Speaker 1: comparison right there between 25 and 26 in terms of
- 2:02Speaker 1: the cost. So the growth is up. This is a 7.9
- 2:06Speaker 1: percent increase right now in medical. So that is another
- 2:09Speaker 1: major area. that is affecting American consumers, and it is
- 2:13Speaker 1: going to be one that continues to push into the markets.
- 2:17Speaker 1: The Treasury yields, though, holding at 5.2. Now, this, of course,
- 2:21Speaker 1: starting to fall after the news. We're holding now at 5.2,
- 2:24Speaker 1: but this had spiked up to right there at 5.3
- 2:29Speaker 1: and settled back down. So Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries are going
- 2:32Speaker 1: to be interesting to look at and how the market
- 2:35Speaker 1: will decipher whether or not they're going to put in
- 2:37Speaker 1: money into long-term investments. Treasuries versus playing the S & P.
- 2:41Speaker 1: When you look at fixed-year mortgages, this is another problem,
- 2:45Speaker 1: and that is this recent hike. If you go right here,
- 2:48Speaker 1: you'll see it right there from March of 2026 at 6.22,
- 2:50Speaker 1: expanding to where we're holding right now at 7.25. Let
- 2:57Speaker 1: me kind of show you that a little closer. That's
- 2:59Speaker 1: the range that we're talking about. This is a big
- 3:01Speaker 1: deal when you're talking about even a $ 200, 000 home, much
- 3:05Speaker 1: less what we look on the national median, which is
- 3:08Speaker 1: setting it around $ 500, 000 to $ 600, 000. So huge implications for mortgage.
- 3:13Speaker 1: That means real estate sales potentially could slow as well. This,
- 3:17Speaker 1: of course, gets into the Fed decision. We'll look at
- 3:19Speaker 1: October over here on PolyMarket. Right now, no change hovering
- 3:24Speaker 1: around 66% after this somewhat bounces, even though it was
- 3:29Speaker 1: right there holding on a no change and a potential
- 3:31Speaker 1: quarter point. But right now, setting in at no change.
- 3:35Speaker 1: If you look at December, this gets even higher now,
- 3:39Speaker 1: but it's going the other way. Now we're talking about
- 3:41Speaker 1: a 25 basis points change. And some people are pointing
- 3:46Speaker 1: to that this could actually be multiple rate hikes before
- 3:49Speaker 1: the end of the year. And of course, we only
- 3:51Speaker 1: have two FOMC meetings available to us, the November meeting
- 3:55Speaker 1: or the December meeting and then the October meeting. And then,
- 3:58Speaker 1: of course, we go into late January on the 27th.
- 4:01Speaker 1: If you look at January, let's take a look there.
- 4:04Speaker 1: The dip right there is on no change, but right
- 4:06Speaker 1: now still holding a quarter basis points in January at
- 4:09Speaker 1: 60 and 43%. respectively. So consider that right now and
- 4:15Speaker 1: where this plays into the market. So let's take a
- 4:17Speaker 1: look at where the hikes are standing right now. There
- 4:21Speaker 1: is a 33 percent chance of three quarter points hikes.
- 4:28Speaker 1: This is insane because for that right now, I mean,
- 4:31Speaker 1: it looks like two 50 basis points total would be
- 4:35Speaker 1: the primary holding it right now at about 67 percent.
- 4:39Speaker 1: The three, though, would be significant if that actually happens.
- 4:43Speaker 1: So be aware that not only is this starting to
- 4:47Speaker 1: play into the market, now we've got inflation starting to
- 4:50Speaker 1: trigger a lot of very key things. And remember, this
- 4:53Speaker 1: time of year, not only for energy but also for
- 4:56Speaker 1: retail because we go into the holiday season, and I'll
- 4:58Speaker 1: talk about that in a second. But here's energy right
- 5:01Speaker 1: here climbing off of the $ 88 low when it came
- 5:06Speaker 1: to just regular crude oil. up to where it's spiking
- 5:09Speaker 1: right now at 95, so a barrel. So this is
- 5:11Speaker 1: an issue that I think is going to continue to
- 5:13Speaker 1: be a problem because of the number of fronts that
- 5:16Speaker 1: we have right now that are in oil-producing regions of
- 5:19Speaker 1: the world. And one of them, of course, is what's
- 5:23Speaker 1: happening in Saudi, and that is the first time Aramco,
- 5:26Speaker 1: this is one of the biggest oil companies, the biggest
- 5:28Speaker 1: oil company in the world, their corporate headquarters has been hit. This,
- 5:32Speaker 1: of course, coming in from the Houthis, And that, of course,
- 5:35Speaker 1: is just one of many. You also have Iran, which
- 5:38Speaker 1: had its first vessel sunk in the war, and this
- 5:43Speaker 1: came through a mine. And, of course, what does it have?
- 5:46Speaker 1: It's got a bunch of luxury perfumes and iPhones sitting
- 5:49Speaker 1: in the straight. This is insane. And it gets worse, guys.
- 5:54Speaker 1: It gets worse. Ukraine also striking oil depots. This, of course,
- 5:59Speaker 1: changes the game for both what's happening with Russia. Trump
- 6:02Speaker 1: is over there trying to deal with this. We are
- 6:04Speaker 1: in a mess here when it comes to energy costs.
- 6:08Speaker 1: And this is the thing that concerns me the most
- 6:10Speaker 1: as this plays into 2027, because it does not appear
- 6:14Speaker 1: that there is a way out of these. So big issues.
- 6:17Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what's going to happen in
- 6:19Speaker 1: the Senate. Democratic Party still holding the lead at 64 percent.
- 6:23Speaker 1: A lot of people saying that this may not be right. Now,
- 6:26Speaker 1: you tell me, do you think we're going to see
- 6:29Speaker 1: a blue wave coming into our Capitol? Let me know
- 6:33Speaker 1: in the comments, because right now the House is pretty
- 6:36Speaker 1: much lost. The Senate holding a 64 percent Democratic advantage.
- 6:42Speaker 1: So taking over. There's some key states. that you'll need
- 6:45Speaker 1: to watch because this could start to flip things dramatically,
- 6:48Speaker 1: not only for this midterm, but where it starts to
- 6:51Speaker 1: play into the next presidential election, which is going to
- 6:55Speaker 1: be huge, I think, for the markets. The other thing
- 6:57Speaker 1: that could really pivot the markets is what's happening in AI.
- 7:01Speaker 1: OpenAI's revenue reportedly 20 billion lower than everyone thought. And
- 7:06Speaker 1: of course, NVIDIA just lost 170 billion. You look at
- 7:09Speaker 1: the impact of where AI is right now, what we're
- 7:13Speaker 1: most likely going to see with the Anthropic IPO, and
- 7:17Speaker 1: the pressure that the market is continually taking. And the
- 7:21Speaker 1: point is, if you look at NVIDIA, Oracle, CoreWeave, and
- 7:24Speaker 1: other AI stocks right now, all of them are sinking
- 7:27Speaker 1: on this. So imagine if there is any other bad
- 7:30Speaker 1: news that gets uncovered out of OpenAI or Anthropic, what
- 7:34Speaker 1: kind of impact that could have here on the overall market.
- 7:38Speaker 1: So let's also take a look at the chip side
- 7:41Speaker 1: of things, semiconductors. Right here is China's CXMT. This is
- 7:45Speaker 1: in reference to their memory advances ahead of Samsung and
- 7:49Speaker 1: SK Hynix. And understand that, and I'll show you here
- 7:52Speaker 1: on the chart here in a second, these are the
- 7:55Speaker 1: supply side of what's happening with a lot of the
- 7:59Speaker 1: hyperscalers and what's happening with a lot of the AI
- 8:01Speaker 1: companies in general. And all of the companies that that
- 8:05Speaker 1: correlate and build around AI. So a huge impact overall.
- 8:09Speaker 1: If you look at CXMT, that's the chart right there
- 8:12Speaker 1: on the weekly. Let me go to the daily. This
- 8:14Speaker 1: is the downtrend that we're seeing on CXMT, biggest Chinese
- 8:19Speaker 1: maker right there. SK Hynix also falling dramatically. And then
- 8:23Speaker 1: you can even go up here to Micron. Micron also
- 8:27Speaker 1: coming down to 923 off of over 1,000, almost 1,100.
- 8:31Speaker 1: So this is starting to trickle its way into the market.
- 8:35Speaker 1: The question is, how does this play out for the
- 8:38Speaker 1: rest of the year? I've got a clip from Paul
- 8:40Speaker 1: Tudor Jones, who talks about this. Take a look.
- 8:43Speaker 2: For me, the most interesting thing, and it's hard for
- 8:46Speaker 2: me to see much beyond December 31, because that's going
- 8:50Speaker 2: to be really important, obviously, for a fund. If you
- 8:53Speaker 2: kind of just go back and look at midterm cycles,
- 8:56Speaker 2: a whole variety of things, it would tell you that
- 8:58Speaker 2: we should have a Really, really strong fourth quarter coming
- 9:02Speaker 2: out of the midterms. The market typically bottoms sometime late October,
- 9:07Speaker 2: early November. And then you get the fourth quarter push.
- 9:10Speaker 2: At the same time, 2027 is going to be really,
- 9:14Speaker 2: really challenging for the stock market. Because if I just
- 9:18Speaker 2: look at the flows, the most negative flow picture is
- 9:24Speaker 2: for the US stock market that we've had, say, since 2002.
- 9:27Speaker 1: And by that, I mean, we sum.
- 9:30Speaker 2: Up all the buybacks, M & A, all the positive
- 9:33Speaker 2: things that has powered this market. And then I subtract
- 9:37Speaker 2: from that the IPOs, secondaries, unlocks, et cetera. Then you've
- 9:43Speaker 2: got certainly the most negative flow picture since 2009. The
- 9:48Speaker 2: $ 2 trillion SpaceX, the coming Anthropic and OpenAI, It shifts
- 9:54Speaker 2: the math and makes it more difficult for the markets.
- 9:58Speaker 1: All right. So you could take this two ways. One,
- 10:01Speaker 1: you could look at it and say there are two
- 10:04Speaker 1: sides of the market right now. You have Paul Tudor Jones,
- 10:07Speaker 1: very defensive. Then you have someone like a Tom Lee,
- 10:10Speaker 1: who's very offensive, saying that we are going to see
- 10:12Speaker 1: one of the biggest bull runs ever. Many people are
- 10:15Speaker 1: still hesitant right now on the AI trade, as am I,
- 10:19Speaker 1: a little cautious. I am still bullish in the market
- 10:22Speaker 1: in general, but there are some key support zones. If
- 10:25Speaker 1: you look at Bitcoin and kind of compare of where
- 10:29Speaker 1: it could be going right now, confidence level, medium, I
- 10:32Speaker 1: would say that's about right for me. The area that
- 10:35Speaker 1: I'm targeting right now is right around $ 81, 000. And I
- 10:38Speaker 1: would agree with this. Key resistance setting up at $ 84, 000
- 10:40Speaker 1: and $ 85, 000. 84.5. So you've got the CPI numbers who
- 10:44Speaker 1: would come in on this. The question will be if
- 10:48Speaker 1: AI starts to falter, do risk assets get the play here?
- 10:52Speaker 1: Do we get a bid within some of these risk assets?
- 10:55Speaker 1: Some of the big hits may be some of the altcoins.
- 10:57Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that, guys, as we
- 11:00Speaker 1: start to play into this. The other thing that's getting
- 11:02Speaker 1: hit right now is the ETFs. So you've got Bitcoin
- 11:05Speaker 1: getting a little bit of move right there. ETH also
- 11:09Speaker 1: bleeding somewhat, slight amount going in here recently. Solana also bleeding.
- 11:15Speaker 1: And then you go into XRP and it's been like
- 11:18Speaker 1: nothing for almost a week in terms of flows. This
- 11:20Speaker 1: is not good for the big four when it comes
- 11:23Speaker 1: to ETFs. And I think this is something that many
- 11:26Speaker 1: people are looking at right now is risk in a
- 11:30Speaker 1: position where you can look at entry points or are
- 11:33Speaker 1: you waiting for something else? Let me know what you
- 11:35Speaker 1: guys think. Is Bitcoin going to go back to, say,
- 11:39Speaker 1: 75K if, in fact, we continue to see this pressure
- 11:42Speaker 1: that comes in on the market? If we get a
- 11:44Speaker 1: rate hike, that could be an issue overall. Gold and silver,
- 11:47Speaker 1: they're not out of the weeds either. You've got gold
- 11:49Speaker 1: and silver prices dumping after all of this, especially when
- 11:53Speaker 1: it comes to higher than expected inflation, and this wipes
- 11:57Speaker 1: out a combined 700% billion. So guys, this is getting
- 12:02Speaker 1: a little crazy in the market. Crypto fear and greed.
- 12:06Speaker 1: This gets interesting here because you're sitting at 51 right now.
- 12:10Speaker 1: Not a good position really in general. I think this
- 12:13Speaker 1: is much more bearish at present than what it's stating
- 12:18Speaker 1: in the markets. I'm watching this very closely because if
- 12:20Speaker 1: we see any kind of major dump on Bitcoin, this
- 12:24Speaker 1: could start to send the market a little bit lower overall.
- 12:27Speaker 1: Let's take a look at this right here because this
- 12:29Speaker 1: is another area that I'm slightly concerned with is a
- 12:32Speaker 1: possible tariff surprise. China's trade surplus hits $ 983 billion for
- 12:37Speaker 1: January through September. Hopefully, we don't get Besson and Trump
- 12:41Speaker 1: going in and doing another one, but it's possible. So
- 12:44Speaker 1: pressure is now ramped up from its other trading partners,
- 12:46Speaker 1: including the EU, to rebalance. So if the EU is
- 12:50Speaker 1: doing it, it's going to give cover fire, I think,
- 12:52Speaker 1: for the administration to possibly try to pull something off there.
- 12:54Speaker 1: So be on the lookout. Consumer confidence. Guys, this is
- 12:57Speaker 1: the lowest been since we saw what back in pre-COVID times.
- 13:02Speaker 1: So not something that I think consumers are looking at
- 13:05Speaker 1: in general. You have U.S. holiday spending expected to dip
- 13:09Speaker 1: right now. And there's a couple of areas that you
- 13:11Speaker 1: have to look at right here. Three quarters of households
- 13:15Speaker 1: are now expecting to adopt a money saving measure during
- 13:18Speaker 1: the holiday season. Basically, spending less. So if that's with
- 13:23Speaker 1: you and you look at what the rest of the
- 13:26Speaker 1: market is doing from a consumer aspect, what's happening in AI,
- 13:30Speaker 1: and of course, what's happening in the aspect of energy
- 13:33Speaker 1: and just inflation in general, this is going to get
- 13:36Speaker 1: a little tight. Let's go into other news in crypto.
- 13:40Speaker 1: And one of the biggest news items right now is
- 13:42Speaker 1: what's happening at Ledger. Ledger devices are now being taken
- 13:47Speaker 1: off product shelves. This is a problem because now you're
- 13:51Speaker 1: talking about all of Asia. It seems like the entire
- 13:55Speaker 1: Southeast Asia and Pacific Rim, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia,
- 13:59Speaker 1: Hong Kong. This is not good for, I think, crypto
- 14:03Speaker 1: in general, especially self-custody. If you are using these kinds
- 14:06Speaker 1: of devices, what is keeping this from happening in other
- 14:09Speaker 1: major countries, including the West? That is what I'm watching
- 14:13Speaker 1: very closely right now, guys. I just I recommend that
- 14:17Speaker 1: you get off of those kinds of devices, go into
- 14:19Speaker 1: something that is more secure, whether you look at Tangim,
- 14:22Speaker 1: even some of the software wallets. Dare you go into
- 14:26Speaker 1: central custody, but if possible, you've got to be able
- 14:28Speaker 1: to look at some alternatives here. So a big issue overall.
- 14:32Speaker 1: You also have Bank of America. Speaking of central, this
- 14:35Speaker 1: is crazy. I mean, the news is just out of
- 14:37Speaker 1: control today. Bank of America crashes 8%. It was fined $ 1. 2
- 14:42Speaker 1: billion for money laundering by the U.S., and it was with...
- 14:46Speaker 1: what was happening in the Southwest. So it means likely
- 14:50Speaker 1: coming through Mexico and also China. That was what FinCEN reported.
- 14:55Speaker 1: So some of these things didn't get hit. But I
- 14:57Speaker 1: want you to understand, you think this might be good
- 15:00Speaker 1: because these guys, they had it coming to them, right? No,
- 15:03Speaker 1: I think this hits Americans again because the banks are
- 15:07Speaker 1: not going to pay this out of profits. They're going
- 15:08Speaker 1: to essentially charge their depositors And they've got 37 million depositors,
- 15:15Speaker 1: checking accounts, another almost 5 million business accounts. Watch out
- 15:19Speaker 1: for that because that's the thing I'm concerned with is
- 15:22Speaker 1: fee hikes to deal with these kind of things. So
- 15:25Speaker 1: I don't know if you're a B of A customer.
- 15:27Speaker 1: Hopefully you're not. Solana, of course, got big in China.
- 15:31Speaker 1: They actually took over a tower. It was the city tower.
- 15:34Speaker 1: And there you have it. I never thought I would
- 15:36Speaker 1: see this. But there it is. Solana in China. amazing,
- 15:41Speaker 1: amazing stuff happening globally. Kraken decided, let's just go ahead
- 15:45Speaker 1: and do something that nobody's expecting. And that is they
- 15:49Speaker 1: went out and acquired their own European bank. So Kraken
- 15:52Speaker 1: on the move in terms of just trying to deal,
- 15:54Speaker 1: if you can't beat them, let's go ahead and join
- 15:55Speaker 1: them kind of thing and reset up how the potential
- 15:59Speaker 1: of a crypto bank might look like. I'm still expecting
- 16:02Speaker 1: more of this kind of activity. I don't think we're
- 16:05Speaker 1: going to see it the other way around where banks
- 16:07Speaker 1: are acquiring crypto companies. I think it is going to
- 16:09Speaker 1: be crypto companies acquiring financial institutions. So let's end this
- 16:15Speaker 1: on a positive note, because I think there are some
- 16:16Speaker 1: things in the market that are looking up. And here's
- 16:20Speaker 1: one of them that we're going to be watching very closely,
- 16:22Speaker 1: and that is the SEC's token offering exemptions. All of
- 16:26Speaker 1: this ends on the 20th. What happens is, is the
- 16:29Speaker 1: SEC made those rules, the market pumped, you saw that.
- 16:33Speaker 1: And right now you've got that time in terms of
- 16:36Speaker 1: dealing with comment structures that companies would come in and
- 16:39Speaker 1: try to add to or take away. All of that
- 16:42Speaker 1: is over next week, so public comment out the window.
- 16:45Speaker 1: The key here is this. Once that goes through on
- 16:49Speaker 1: the 20th and the SEC says, okay, that's the law
- 16:52Speaker 1: of the land under our guise, what we're going to
- 16:55Speaker 1: administer with the CFTC following suit as well, you're going
- 16:59Speaker 1: to see and be ready a slew of announcements coming out.
- 17:04Speaker 1: Look at crypto Twitter. You're going to see announcement after
- 17:07Speaker 1: announcement coming out after this. If this gets locked in
- 17:10Speaker 1: as it is right now, which means we could see
- 17:13Speaker 1: a mini pump coming off of these news items right here.
- 17:17Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that. That happens on
- 17:19Speaker 1: the 20th. We'll bring some more information to you about
- 17:22Speaker 1: that because I think there's going to be some key
- 17:24Speaker 1: projects that start to release some big news. Before we
- 17:27Speaker 1: get out of here, let's take a look at the charts.
- 17:28Speaker 1: You've got Bitcoin holding at 81.6 right now on the daily.
- 17:32Speaker 1: This 81 is a key point right now, guys, before
- 17:36Speaker 1: we potentially see a pushback. I hope we don't see
- 17:39Speaker 1: this push back down to 75, but that is something
- 17:42Speaker 1: that we're watching. ETH holding at 2433, kind of in
- 17:45Speaker 1: the same window, which could push us back down literally
- 17:48Speaker 1: into sub 2000 on Ethereum. And then if you look
- 17:52Speaker 1: at Solana nipping back down to 104, that 100 is
- 17:57Speaker 1: the one that I am concerned with and not concerned.
- 17:59Speaker 1: It's just a point of long-term holding where you get
- 18:03Speaker 1: a chance to maybe reenter an asset like this. It's
- 18:06Speaker 1: actually good for some of you who maybe have not
- 18:08Speaker 1: purchased some of these assets out there. Avalanche back down
- 18:11Speaker 1: under $ 10. 00. You've also got Uniswap absolutely skyrocketed all the
- 18:16Speaker 1: way up to what was around $ 10. 90, almost $ 11, and
- 18:19Speaker 1: has retraced back down to $ 7. 14. And some of the
- 18:23Speaker 1: others we're watching, Ondo right there, slightly up and then
- 18:26Speaker 1: sliding down. Joop also on the news for today. Most
- 18:29Speaker 1: of these assets are obviously being affected by the inflation number.
- 18:34Speaker 1: So there you have it. Gold right there, $ 4K. Silver
- 18:40Speaker 1: holding at $ 55, back to its base. This is going
- 18:43Speaker 1: to be rough times for metals until we see some
- 18:46Speaker 1: adjustments here into the markets. We're going to cover this
- 18:48Speaker 1: and a lot more, so stay tuned for that. If
- 18:57Speaker 1: you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a
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- 19:03Speaker 1: The link is in the description.