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Joining The Party. · ANGLES.

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Joining the party, my weekly market review, October 11th, 2026.
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  SPEAKER_00: A distinct lack of meaningful economic data or earnings reports during
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: the week put financial markets at the mercy of the news flow surrounding
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  SPEAKER_00: the Iran war,
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  SPEAKER_00: US domestic politics a month away from the midterms,
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  SPEAKER_00: and European economic woes,
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  SPEAKER_00: particularly in France,
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  SPEAKER_00: which is beginning to look like Greece circa 2010,
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  SPEAKER_00: with local interest rates having surged from 3.5% in late June to 4.9% today.
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  SPEAKER_00: Stocks meandered higher on Monday,
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  SPEAKER_00: with the price of Nvidia reaching a new all-time high and closing in on a valuation
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  SPEAKER_00: of $6 trillion, barely a year after first breaking through $4 trillion.
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  SPEAKER_00: Which is particularly astonishing when you consider that just six months ago,
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  SPEAKER_00: it was floundering at down 11% for the year.
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  SPEAKER_00: Wall Street's concerns about an October Fed funds rate hike continued
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  SPEAKER_00: to recede following the previous week's cool jobs report.
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  SPEAKER_00: The session's gains were enough for the NASDAQ 100
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  SPEAKER_00: to score its 23rd all-time record high of 2026.
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  SPEAKER_00: Bond traders took a break from turbocharging interest rates on Tuesday
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  SPEAKER_00: and stocks reacted positively with the Nasdaq 100 adding weight to its record level
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  SPEAKER_00: and the S&P 500 closing above 7,800 for the first time ever and joining the party
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  SPEAKER_00: by reclaiming its own new all-time record high for the 27th time this year.
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  SPEAKER_00: An intensification of Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
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  SPEAKER_00: and increased Houthi activity in Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea
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  SPEAKER_00: on Wednesday dramatically reversed the recent steady drift lower in oil prices.
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  SPEAKER_00: Interest rates resumed their climb with
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  SPEAKER_00: the highly impactful 10-year Treasury rate reaching its highest level in 24 years.
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  SPEAKER_00: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting confirmed what we all knew,
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  SPEAKER_00: that the FOMC is strongly leaning towards another quarter point rate increase
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  SPEAKER_00: on either October 28th or December 9th this year,
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  SPEAKER_00: although the probabilities strongly favor the latter over the former.
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  SPEAKER_00: This all dampened enthusiasm for stocks,
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  SPEAKER_00: especially in the case of the more interest rate sensitive small caps
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  SPEAKER_00: and indexes retreated from their record levels.
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  SPEAKER_00: The Q3 earnings season kicked off on Thursday with uninspiring results from PepsiCo
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  SPEAKER_00: and then Delta Airlines,
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  SPEAKER_00: but things properly ramp up this week with the big banks reporting.
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  SPEAKER_00: Stocks continue to be vulnerable to gravity from the news flow,
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  SPEAKER_00: particularly a revitalized surge in energy prices resulting
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  SPEAKER_00: from increased Middle East tensions and infuriatingly contradictory messaging around
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  SPEAKER_00: when or even whether the US will resume its bombing campaign in Iran.
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  SPEAKER_00: A Financial Times report casts doubt over OpenAI's revenue claims,
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  SPEAKER_00: sending tremors through the big tech and AI ecosystem.
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  SPEAKER_00: This rattled the stock indexes, which sank further.
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  SPEAKER_00: A number of speeches from Fed officials heavily implied to markets that
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  SPEAKER_00: an interest rate hike later this month is off the table,
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  SPEAKER_00: although we do have some inflation data coming out between now and then.
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  SPEAKER_00: And this,
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  SPEAKER_00: along with a pause in the rise in oil prices and a welcome drop
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  SPEAKER_00: in long-term interest rates,
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  SPEAKER_00: led to a stock rebound on Friday,
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  SPEAKER_00: with the indexes closing the session nicely higher.
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  SPEAKER_00: For the week,
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  SPEAKER_00: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 large cap indexes closed higher,
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  SPEAKER_00: but US small caps and international stocks finished lower.
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  SPEAKER_00: Some other things I'm thinking about.
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  SPEAKER_00: Q4 of midterm election years are historically very lucrative for stock investors,
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  SPEAKER_00: with far higher levels of expected return than in other years.
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  SPEAKER_00: Since the 1950s,
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  SPEAKER_00: the S&P 500 has averaged a bounce back of 31.8% from its low point in
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  SPEAKER_00: a midterm year.
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  SPEAKER_00: Every single midterm election since 1946 has been followed
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  SPEAKER_00: by positive one-year returns in stock prices.
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  SPEAKER_00: The early-year pace-setters, U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: small-cap and international stocks continue to seriously lag U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: large-cap performance over recent weeks and months.
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  SPEAKER_00: With rejuvenated mega cap tech driving this most recent rally,
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  SPEAKER_00: notably Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple.
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  SPEAKER_00: These three stocks now collectively comprise over 21% of the weighting of
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  SPEAKER_00: the S&P 500 index, the highest representation by any three stocks in history.
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  SPEAKER_00: With this kind of heavy concentration,
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  SPEAKER_00: it only takes a handful of winners to generate outperformance of
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  SPEAKER_00: the index itself versus the average stock inside the index.
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  SPEAKER_00: But equally,
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  SPEAKER_00: a downturn in performance in just a tiny handful of stocks could send
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  SPEAKER_00: the overall indexes tumbling.