Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The Paper Bitcoin ATTACK JUST ENDED: Price is about to EXPLODE!! [HERE'S WHY] | EP 1262

Transcript

The Paper Bitcoin ATTACK JUST ENDED: Price is about to EXPLODE!! [HERE'S WHY] | EP 1262 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Bitcoin is about to hit a new all time high and we have some
• 0:04
  news suggesting that the BlackRock and Coinbase paper
• 0:09
  Bitcoin attack might just be over.
• 0:13
  We're going to get to that news of you know, what the SEC with
• 0:18
  Hester Pierce just said about Bitcoin ETF and in kind
• 0:23
  redemptions in a moment. But this week we do have some
• 0:26
  more very interesting news to cover kind of talking about this
• 0:30
  whole idea of paper Bitcoin and you know, answering the
• 0:34
  question, why is the price of Bitcoin not running?
• 0:38
  California came out earlier in the week and they said that they
• 0:42
  are going to seize your Bitcoin if you leave it on an exchange
• 0:47
  for more than three years. So before we get to that, me and
• 0:51
  my always optimistic Co host Opti are going to be not only
• 0:56
  explaining what is this paper Bitcoin attack but what is going
• 1:01
  to happen next. What do you think, Opti?
• 1:04
  I mean, look, I was arguing with Nico yesterday and I'm starting
• 1:08
  to feel bullish. I tweeted last night that I
• 1:11
  think we are starting, I think we're going to have a full send
• 1:14
  week today. Like this week to me feels like
• 1:17
  a full send week. And I'm, I'm not totally
• 1:20
  convinced that we have this paper Bitcoin, though
• 1:25
  something's not adding up. And a lot of people are saying
• 1:27
  the same thing. A lot of people have been in the
• 1:28
  space for a very long time. We're all kind of having the
• 1:31
  same sentiment right now is like this price should go up
• 1:36
  considering all of these crazy announcements.
• 1:39
  They're they're literally million plus billion dollar
• 1:42
  announcements of buying thousands of Bitcoin are
• 1:45
  supposedly being bought up and everyone's wondering if this
• 1:49
  much Bitcoin is actually being bought, where is the price run
• 1:54
  up? Which makes us all think there
• 1:55
  has to be some paper into the system.
• 1:58
  A lot of people are pointing at the ETF.
• 2:00
  So a lot of people are pointing at Coinbase saying they don't
• 2:02
  even have all this, this Bitcoin.
• 2:05
  Of course, there's been a, a new flare up this last week about
• 2:08
  rehypothecation. So all of these concerns are
• 2:11
  very viable concerns for Bitcoin as it's, it's literally why
• 2:14
  we're here in the 1st place. So I'm excited to see the price
• 2:17
  run today and yesterday. It's starting to make me feel
• 2:21
  like we are, we are seeing the demand finally meet that hard
• 2:24
  cap supply. So I think it's gonna be a great
• 2:27
  week, but it's just the start of the week.
• 2:28
  It could always dump. Anyways, Luke, let's get into
• 2:31
  some of this source material. What you got for us?
• 2:34
  Let's first have a look at Josh Mandel's tweet.
• 2:37
  This is the cryptic trader who got a little bit of notoriety
• 2:41
  for predicting $400,000 Bitcoin. And we can see here on Twitter
• 2:46
  he said eventually the levy's going to break at some point.
• 2:51
  And he was quote tweeting this tweet that said at some point
• 2:56
  will something break their ability to continue shorting
• 3:00
  Bitcoin. So again, this sentiment, it is
• 3:03
  far and why it's all over Twitter.
• 3:05
  But again, we do have a lot more than just Twitter rumors to
• 3:08
  break down for you guys. Today we can see Bitcoin OG
• 3:12
  Vijay Boyapati. He's also kind of raising the
• 3:16
  question, why is Bitcoin's price stuck?
• 3:20
  There are billions of dollars of inflows from ETFs and treasury
• 3:25
  companies and the supply of newly mined Bitcoin is miniscule
• 3:30
  compared to these flows. What gives?
• 3:34
  He says 1 answer is that there's a lot of paper Bitcoin flowing
• 3:38
  around suppressing the price. I do not agree with this theory.
• 3:43
  So again, people agree, others don't agree with this theory,
• 3:47
  and everybody's just kind of waiting around saying what is
• 3:51
  happening. Bitcoins at $100,000 a coin.
• 3:55
  I think a lot of people were expecting Bitcoin to be a lot
• 3:58
  higher than it is today, considering all of these inflows
• 4:02
  that we have seen from the ETFs. Speaking of them, let's jump on
• 4:06
  over to bitcointreasuries.net. We can see that Bitcoin in
• 4:11
  treasuries from public companies or private companies or
• 4:15
  governments and ETFs. This is now up to 3.41 million
• 4:19
  coins Opti. Every single day I check in on
• 4:22
  this website, there is more entities holding Bitcoin.
• 4:26
  So we can see there's 226 large entities holding Bitcoin and day
• 4:32
  after day after day, that number of Bitcoin that they're holding
• 4:36
  just continues to rise and rise. Opti How much Bitcoin can these
• 4:42
  governments and public companies and private companies accumulate
• 4:47
  before the price finally starts to reflect the fundamental value
• 4:52
  of what we think Bitcoin is? Well, that is the fundamental
• 4:56
  question here. No one knows.
• 4:57
  We have no clue. Just from looking at it, it
• 5:01
  feels like, I mean just looking at today's price action, it
• 5:04
  feels like we are at that tipping point.
• 5:06
  Again, if I remember correctly, Sailor and BlackRock I think
• 5:12
  collectively own about 3% of the network if I remember correctly,
• 5:16
  or maybe it's all the ETFs. So we are starting to hit that
• 5:19
  tipping point. And again, you know, metaplanets
• 5:21
  doing this, we're seeing GameStop talking about doing
• 5:25
  this. We're seeing a lot of other
• 5:26
  companies follow suit. I think I saw this morning on
• 5:29
  the Wall Street Journal, they're parading that number, that 60
• 5:32
  plus Bitcoin treasuries have now entered the market and we still
• 5:36
  haven't really gotten the news of what's going on with the US.
• 5:39
  We saw Bo Hines kind of talk about it.
• 5:41
  I saw a clip going around of him saying that pretty soon you
• 5:45
  should hear something from the US about this.
• 5:47
  And you know, as he said, the community will be very excited
• 5:51
  and I think pleased with this announcement.
• 5:53
  I think a lot of us have been hearing the date around August
• 5:56
  of the of this year to hear what the US plans to do in a budget
• 6:01
  neutral way to acquire Bitcoin. So it's just that interest is
• 6:04
  coming. And and like someone said in the
• 6:06
  chat, the Josh Mandel tweet that you put, you know, the meme
• 6:09
  guys, there's a meme on the show.
• 6:12
  It wasn't just a levy that was a tsunami.
• 6:14
  And that's the vibe that that it feels like a tsunami is on the
• 6:17
  horizon right now. And how much Bitcoin can they
• 6:20
  acquire at these prices? None of us know that's the whole
• 6:24
  thing. It just, it just feels like the
• 6:26
  demand is a lot more than the current supply.
• 6:28
  Again, we've been talking about the number of only 450 Bitcoin
• 6:31
  are released a day via blocks mine.
• 6:35
  And these companies are talking about buying thousands, if not
• 6:38
  10s of thousands of Bitcoin. You know, basically and you're
• 6:41
  you, you're a little better on the, the total supply.
• 6:44
  How many days these corporations are buying of of mine Bitcoin?
• 6:49
  It's like months at this point, so who knows.
• 6:52
  But then again, you know, I showed some metrics on the show.
• 6:54
  It seems like a lot of whale OG holders with 10K plus addresses
• 6:58
  have been selling coin as well. So I am a keep it simple kind of
• 7:02
  guy. It just means there's more
• 7:03
  demand for selling than there is, you know, people buying
• 7:07
  right now. It's just simple demand, supply
• 7:09
  economics. At a certain point it will
• 7:11
  break. It does seem like we are there
• 7:13
  though. You know, it's been pumping the
• 7:14
  last couple of days. I'm starting to get excited.
• 7:19
  I'm starting to get excited as well, my friend.
• 7:22
  You mentioned a really interesting chart.
• 7:23
  The big boys right now are selling Bitcoin and everybody's
• 7:28
  wondering, OK, typically when these big whales sell Bitcoin,
• 7:32
  this marks the tops. So in the orange here, this is a
• 7:35
  tweet popped out there by Willy Woo, and he's showing the supply
• 7:39
  held by entities with 10,000 to 100,000 Bitcoin.
• 7:44
  It's been steadily dropping since 2017 and everybody's
• 7:48
  they're correct, directly looking at the chart and showing
• 7:51
  every time we see a big drop in this metric, Bitcoin has a long
• 7:55
  extended 12 month cooldown or consolidation period.
• 7:59
  And now everybody's kind of looking around.
• 8:01
  And again, this is a question I've been asking about for a
• 8:04
  very long time. Maybe we're kind of in a
• 8:07
  different era. Maybe the OG Hodlers who used to
• 8:12
  be the smart money in Bitcoin. What if they're now the dumb
• 8:15
  money in Bitcoin? And what happens if the nation
• 8:18
  states or the public corporations and these large
• 8:22
  institutional funds and asset managers like BlackRock and
• 8:26
  Fidelity, what if they're now the new smart money because they
• 8:32
  are the ones who are buying today?
• 8:35
  Normally what happens every cycle is the OG Hodlers, they
• 8:40
  sell Bitcoin and the retail morons, I need to be careful
• 8:45
  what I say on a live stream. The retail morons, they step in
• 8:50
  at the tops and at the all time highs and they buy the supply of
• 8:54
  Bitcoin when the price is super high.
• 8:56
  So the Ogs dump on retail. But now something really
• 8:59
  interesting is happening. The Ogs have been dumping ever
• 9:03
  since we got above 70 K. That's what the chart showed us
• 9:06
  a second ago. But who's buying?
• 9:08
  It's no longer retail. It's no longer the plebs like
• 9:12
  us. It is now the nation state, the
• 9:14
  billionaires, the institutions and the big private companies.
• 9:18
  So again, what is happening? Are we entering A fundamental
• 9:22
  era or is Larry Fink and BlackRock just the dumb money?
• 9:26
  I don't know. That's the question that again,
• 9:28
  we should be really asking ourselves if we're trying to
• 9:31
  understand where the price of Bitcoin is going next.
• 9:34
  What do you think of the If these large entities are
• 9:38
  stepping in now, does that make you bullish or bearish?
• 9:41
  Well, at first it kind of terrified me, I'm not going to
• 9:44
  lie. When when you know, Larry Fink
• 9:46
  came out as pro Bitcoin, I had to re evaluate my stance and I I
• 9:51
  think I did it live on the show. It's a lot of us people, a lot
• 9:54
  of us bitcoiners at this point. You see what Larry Fink and
• 9:57
  BlackRock does, you know, they own basically a huge portion of
• 10:01
  most of the companies on planet Earth.
• 10:03
  You know, they're the big one of the biggest, if not the biggest
• 10:06
  company in the world. I think there's only, you know,
• 10:08
  like James St. and there's one more that I'm blanking right now
• 10:13
  that owns as many companies as Black Street so or sorry, as
• 10:17
  BlackRock. So when they came in, it was one
• 10:19
  of those like, I'm on the same size as Larry Fink now.
• 10:23
  Like what is going on here? This is making me feel icky.
• 10:27
  But now you're starting to see that he has positioned himself
• 10:30
  in a way. And when you really dive into
• 10:32
  all the macro bond market stuff that seems to be scaring
• 10:35
  everyone, it becomes a no brainer.
• 10:38
  Why they're looking for Bitcoin, why they're talking about
• 10:40
  Bitcoin, why Larry Fink is talking about 700 K plus
• 10:42
  Bitcoin, you know, within a couple of years is because
• 10:45
  they're looking at the same thing we're looking at again.
• 10:48
  I don't know if I would call them dumb money, Luke, cause
• 10:51
  obviously it's not to say that you need to be smart to make a
• 10:55
  lot of money, but they have the best analysts, they have the
• 10:58
  best data. And I think it's just an
• 11:00
  incentive thing. So if we're the smart money
• 11:03
  here, Luke, I think we have a problem.
• 11:05
  But I, I also wouldn't call, oh geez, that been holding 10s of
• 11:09
  thousands of Bitcoin dumb money either.
• 11:11
  Like if you held Bitcoin from pennies, $0.10, even a dollar
• 11:17
  and you're taking some profits right now, I think just, you
• 11:20
  know, shaving off a little bit of the coin so that you can
• 11:23
  secure some of this, this, you know, Fiat purchasing power
• 11:26
  right now and live a good life. I wouldn't call that dumb money.
• 11:29
  You know, they've, they've made very good profits here.
• 11:32
  So it's not to say that they're not going to hold Bitcoin and
• 11:35
  that they are just, you know, greater fool theory here.
• 11:38
  Like they just, you know, buy 10s of thousands of bitcoins,
• 11:40
  sell it all, go back to the Fiat system.
• 11:42
  I don't think that's what's playing out here.
• 11:44
  I think these people Oh geez, are selling some Bitcoin to
• 11:49
  essentially, you know, live a life that they never dreamed
• 11:51
  possible. Now if if you held Bitcoin from
• 11:53
  1 penny to 100,000 and you had 10,000 plus Bitcoin, you know
• 11:58
  what's selling a couple of coins here so that you can live a good
• 12:00
  life again. I know it's bitcoiners are
• 12:03
  frugal, but you also want to live a life now and not have to
• 12:07
  wait and push those profits 10/20/30 years down the line.
• 12:10
  If you've already made a good gain, I don't see a problem with
• 12:13
  using your your Bitcoin using your money how you want to.
• 12:16
  So I don't know, it's hard to say who the dumb money is now
• 12:19
  Luke. It seems like the only dumb
• 12:22
  money is people that aren't holding Bitcoin.
• 12:27
  You know what? I'll say it Opti.
• 12:29
  I'll be the controversial 1. I think the dumb money are those
• 12:32
  people drawing lines on charts saying that Bitcoin's going to
• 12:36
  top at 180,000. Don't.
• 12:37
  You know, don't you know, we just, we double topped, it's
• 12:40
  over. It's all over.
• 12:43
  Pack it up, pack it up now. I think the dumb money are going
• 12:46
  to be the people who expect Bitcoin to behave like it did
• 12:49
  over the past 16 years, 16 years into the future.
• 12:52
  I think, you know, Bitcoin has changed right now.
• 12:56
  I think the old rules of Bitcoin do not apply in this next era
• 13:00
  we're moving into. And again, I just think the
• 13:03
  really interesting things are going to start happening when
• 13:06
  there's no Bitcoin on exchanges. Speaking of that, I know we've
• 13:10
  got a chart to take a little bit of a paper, because this is the
• 13:13
  chart that I think is most concerning when we're talking
• 13:16
  about this whole topic of paper Bitcoin.
• 13:19
  So the only reason we can have paper Bitcoin today is because
• 13:24
  there is still Bitcoin on the exchanges right now.
• 13:28
  We don't know exactly how much Bitcoin all of these large
• 13:31
  regulated entities are sitting on, or if they even are
• 13:35
  rehypothecation their Bitcoin. We have no idea, but what we do
• 13:39
  know is that the number of Bitcoin on exchanges, it has
• 13:43
  been precipitously dropping over the past five years.
• 13:47
  It is undeniable that we are in a new trend or a new era in
• 13:51
  Bitcoin. And for the first time in its
• 13:53
  life, we've just seen five years of this chart accelerating.
• 13:57
  We're seeing less and less Bitcoin available for sale
• 14:01
  again. Between 2008 and 2020, the
• 14:03
  number of Bitcoin and exchanges, it only grew and then 2020
• 14:07
  changed everything, which I think is really interesting
• 14:10
  because if this trend continues, we have no Bitcoin on the
• 14:14
  exchanges in literally 2 to three years time.
• 14:19
  Now again, I'm using conservative numbers.
• 14:21
  I'm assuming what's happened since 2020, since what's
• 14:25
  happened in 2022 to today, 2025. If that three-year data set
• 14:31
  continues for another three years, there's no Bitcoin on
• 14:34
  exchanges by, you know, 2028. If I got more aggressive and had
• 14:39
  a look at the piece on this chart that is even more
• 14:42
  interesting and terrifying, we can actually see that there
• 14:46
  could be a scenario where there's no Bitcoin on exchanges
• 14:49
  even sooner than 2028. I know how crazy that sounds,
• 14:54
  but if you just look at the last five months of data on this
• 14:57
  chart, we're seeing 100,000 bitcoins stripped off the
• 15:01
  exchanges every single month, 100,000 Again, there's somewhere
• 15:07
  around 2.1 to 2.5 million Bitcoin on exchanges depending
• 15:12
  upon what exchange data you trust.
• 15:15
  So again, if that trend continues, well, all of a sudden
• 15:19
  there is no Bitcoin on exchanges in 21 months, that is not much
• 15:27
  time at all. That is less than two years.
• 15:29
  And again, this data set we've got here from Coin Glass is
• 15:32
  telling us that there's about 2.1 million Bitcoin on
• 15:35
  exchanges. The one here from Crypto Quan
• 15:38
  says it's about 2.5 million Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 15:42
  And I mean, the trend that we're seeing up there is public
• 15:45
  companies are not slowing down their Bitcoin buying.
• 15:49
  They are literally increasing their stacks day after day.
• 15:53
  What I find fascinating is if you Scroll down here to the
• 15:56
  bottom of this very long list of the 220 public companies holding
• 16:01
  Bitcoin, we can see collectively they hold 800,000 coins.
• 16:05
  And the majority of that buying has really come in the past two
• 16:09
  years. Yes, Michael Saylor started
• 16:12
  buying Bitcoin in 2020. Elon Musk dipped his toes in the
• 16:16
  water in 2021. But until 20/22 and more
• 16:20
  recently in 2023, a lot of these names weren't buying Bitcoin.
• 16:25
  This trend has really reached a fever pitch, so to say, only in
• 16:30
  the past year or two and we've seen 800,000 Bitcoin ripped off
• 16:35
  the exchanges. That's what really has me very,
• 16:38
  very concerned because we know there's only 450 Bitcoin mined
• 16:43
  everyday. That means there's something
• 16:45
  like 160,000 Bitcoin mined a year.
• 16:50
  Just the public companies are buying double that a year and
• 16:54
  they have for the past two to three years.
• 16:56
  Public companies are buying way more than 160,000 Bitcoin here.
• 17:00
  And then we're not even talking about the ETFs.
• 17:03
  We're not even talking about big, old stinky Larry Fink and
• 17:07
  the enormous Bitcoin supply that he is sitting on over there at
• 17:12
  BlackRock. I want to quickly take a little
• 17:15
  bit of a peep to have a look at just how much Bitcoin is being
• 17:19
  held by BlackRock. And we're going to do that by
• 17:22
  checking out another one of my favorite websites.
• 17:25
  But we can. Oh, hello, it's updated.
• 17:28
  Hey, Apollo has updated and you can see how much Bitcoin these
• 17:31
  large entities are holding. And you can see that BlackRock,
• 17:36
  while it might have started slowly, it has well and truly
• 17:40
  been the clear dominant winner of these ETF games.
• 17:44
  And it's just pulled away from the competition month after
• 17:48
  month that we kind of see go past the ETF we're launched.
• 17:53
  BlackRock just continues pulling away from the pack.
• 17:56
  And today it's sitting on what's that three, more than 3% of the
• 18:00
  Bitcoin supply Update 1 entity. Yes, there's people in the
• 18:04
  comments correctly pointing out that, you know, these guys hold
• 18:10
  a lot of Bitcoin for institutions, they hold a lot of
• 18:12
  Bitcoin for a lot of individuals who are buying Bitcoin through
• 18:19
  BlackRock. But if you just, OK, let's take
• 18:21
  that point, let's grant you that point, What about MicroStrategy?
• 18:25
  MicroStrategy is also sitting on about 3% of the supply, and
• 18:30
  they're one entity. They're one public company out
• 18:33
  of the 58,000 public companies who need Bitcoin.
• 18:37
  If just one of them is sitting on 3% of the Bitcoin supply, all
• 18:42
  of a sudden the math just doesn't math.
• 18:44
  It doesn't make sense anymore because it really only takes
• 18:47
  four or five people or billionaires to start thinking
• 18:52
  like Michael Saylor before there's no Bitcoin or exchanges.
• 18:56
  If four or five other entities want to buy the same amount of
• 18:59
  Bitcoin that BlackRock or Michael Saylor owns, it's all
• 19:03
  over. And again, I think the news is
• 19:05
  really interesting because we're seeing at a break net pace all
• 19:09
  of these new public companies get into the Bitcoin space and
• 19:14
  start announcing their very own public, you know, Bitcoin
• 19:18
  treasury strategy. What do you what's your am I, do
• 19:21
  you think I'm just maybe losing my mind here, Opti, or are you
• 19:24
  feeling the the bullishness that that I'm feeling right now with
• 19:28
  this supply? Supplication.
• 19:29
  Well, I tweeted last night and it got, like I said earlier, it
• 19:31
  got a good response of it feels like a full send week is ahead
• 19:36
  of us. It's, it's coming.
• 19:38
  It starts to feel I was even and everyone here let me let me pull
• 19:41
  through myself. Everyone in the chat keeps
• 19:43
  giving Nico a lot of flat because he's a perma bull.
• 19:45
  No matter what. I think he still has PTSD from
• 19:47
  the 2021 era. And I don't know, last night I
• 19:50
  was just sitting there looking at some of the, the charts we
• 19:52
  were just talking about and you know, the price of pumping.
• 19:56
  I think it hit one O 6 yesterday and I was like, I don't know,
• 19:59
  man, it's, it's my gut is telling me it's going to be a
• 20:03
  full send era right now. And Luke, you've been talking
• 20:07
  about the what do you call it? The the Bitcoin on exchanges And
• 20:12
  I've seen a lot of people push back on that.
• 20:14
  And I'm I'm kind of. On the opposite side, as you, I
• 20:18
  know you constantly talk about the Bitcoin on exchanges been
• 20:21
  constantly going downward. A lot of people have been saying
• 20:23
  like this is it's been like this for years bro.
• 20:25
  Like you know, the Bitcoin number, it fluctuates, but it's
• 20:29
  been 2,000,000 for years, bro. And I'm always kind of like, you
• 20:33
  know, using that back data and thinking I think there will
• 20:36
  always be Bitcoin on an exchange to sell to someone if they want
• 20:40
  to. But I did see this chart here
• 20:43
  and again, I'm not fully, you know, I don't know the interest
• 20:46
  efficacies of how OTC desks work, but this was pretty
• 20:50
  interesting to see. So we have Kaz or BTC or Trop
• 20:56
  Monkey and he goes BTC on the OTC desk has reached historic
• 20:59
  low levels. OTC desk balance 3 1/2 week ago
• 21:02
  was 263 K Bitcoin. Now it's only 123.584 Bitcoin.
• 21:09
  And someone asks what happens when there's no Bitcoin on the
• 21:12
  exchanges? Well, then that means Bitcoin
• 21:15
  has to find its price based on the free market.
• 21:18
  They're going to have to buy it over the market, which means
• 21:20
  they're going to have to incentivize buyers, or rather
• 21:23
  sellers, to sell that Bitcoin. So then it's really in price
• 21:27
  discovery mode. Bitcoin price can gap really
• 21:30
  quickly when the liquidity that is being sold to these big
• 21:33
  institutions is being bought on the open market.
• 21:37
  That's when price discovery mode goes absolutely nuts 'cause they
• 21:41
  have to buy it on the open market.
• 21:42
  So everyone can see what's going on behind OTC desk or you know
• 21:47
  some kind of off the exchange trade or what have you.
• 21:51
  You don't really know at what price they they're getting this
• 21:53
  Bitcoin and they can get discounts if they buy at bulk,
• 21:56
  you know like they can make deals here, but when they're
• 21:58
  buying on the market, whatever the last price is someone has to
• 22:01
  buy it at a price higher than that.
• 22:03
  So if we do get to a point that these institutions are buying
• 22:08
  literally years worth of Bitcoin supply on the open market, this
• 22:13
  could really go to what Samsung Mao has been saying, what Kaiser
• 22:16
  has been saying, you know, $1,000,000 Bitcoin or mid 6
• 22:20
  figure Bitcoin extremely fast. And we haven't seen that yet.
• 22:24
  We do see when retail comes in, you know, they're not as
• 22:27
  sophisticated, they just buy on the open market and they just
• 22:29
  want to get a position and that's when the price gets
• 22:31
  really crazy. And so that's what will happen
• 22:34
  if all if this all Bitcoin on exchanges is cleared out and
• 22:38
  they have to go find it on the open market, basically things
• 22:41
  get nuts and that's what we all think is kind of coming.
• 22:45
  And so I'm not so I can't verify this OTC desk.
• 22:48
  It looks like he has been verifying this.
• 22:52
  He said the best answer. So I don't, I don't know.
• 22:53
  I'm I'm kind of taking his word on this one.
• 22:55
  But if this is the case, again, big if and it could explain for
• 22:59
  why we're seeing the Bitcoin price pump today.
• 23:02
  And so, you know, things are getting crazy now, Luke, I do
• 23:06
  OK. Yeah, keep going, Keep going.
• 23:09
  So this you said it here of the OTC desks, that image that you
• 23:13
  pulled up from Twitter is 100% accurate.
• 23:15
  We can see that the number of Bitcoin on OTC desks, it just
• 23:19
  continues to drop and it has been doing it consistently.
• 23:22
  I got another chart as well showing the exact same thing.
• 23:25
  But while the coins on exchanges have been dropping over the past
• 23:29
  five years, it's of my belief that the big entities have been
• 23:34
  using these OTC desks to quietly accumulate large amounts of
• 23:40
  Bitcoin without impacting the price too much.
• 23:44
  But as you mentioned from that tweet, all of a sudden there's
• 23:47
  nearly no Bitcoin left on the OTC desks.
• 23:51
  There's lots of different ways to measure it, but from all of
• 23:54
  the charts that I've found, again, never trust just one
• 23:57
  chart. I like to look at many of them
• 24:00
  to get a little bit of a more rounded explanation of what's
• 24:04
  going on, but from all of the OTC desks and the images and the
• 24:09
  charts I found, they're all showing the exact same thing.
• 24:13
  Coins on the OTC desks is literally dropping like a rock.
• 24:18
  And I ran the maths a couple of weeks ago. 80% of all of the
• 24:22
  supply on OTC desks has disappeared over the past five
• 24:27
  years. Meanwhile, something like 35% of
• 24:31
  all of the Bitcoin on the open exchanges like Coinbase and
• 24:35
  Binance has disappeared over the past last five years.
• 24:39
  So yes, coins have been leaving the exchanges, but this hasn't
• 24:42
  had any short term impact on the price because we've had so much
• 24:47
  supply for these big entities to RIP off of the OTC desks.
• 24:52
  But depending upon how you're measuring these OTC desks, there
• 24:57
  is not much Bitcoin left on them anymore.
• 25:00
  I think you might have said something like 100,000 coins
• 25:04
  Opti which at this rate that is the amount of Bitcoin being
• 25:08
  pulled off the exchanges by these public companies and these
• 25:11
  micro strategies nearly every month.
• 25:15
  OK, so one month and the price is pumping.
• 25:18
  Let's go. You heard it here first.
• 25:24
  Is that the last chart we got too, you know, keep people
• 25:26
  updated on Bitcoin on exchanges, because we did get a good
• 25:29
  question in Rumble. Let me see if I can find it real
• 25:34
  quick. Sorry guys.
• 25:34
  So someone said JN 24750. He just said a paper Bitcoin
• 25:40
  question mark. So maybe we got to explain what
• 25:43
  paper Bitcoin means, at least in this context, and it's
• 25:46
  essentially, you know, issuing more paper claims than actual
• 25:49
  Bitcoin in the network. I don't know if you're on
• 25:51
  Twitter JN, but there's a lot of conversation right now.
• 25:54
  Rather, the running meme right now is it's going to be funny
• 25:57
  when all these Bitcoin corporate treasury companies announce that
• 26:02
  they all own collectively more Bitcoin than 21 million Bitcoin,
• 26:05
  which is of course paper Bitcoin being issued or the more
• 26:09
  hardcore Bitcoiner is the rehypothecation of Bitcoin.
• 26:12
  So, and we've seen this happen in the past, particularly FTX.
• 26:17
  You know, they said they had hundreds of thousands of coins.
• 26:19
  In reality, they had like no coins, but they had the Fiat
• 26:22
  price. So just to kind of break this
• 26:25
  down for the layman out there, it's essentially say you go to
• 26:28
  an exchange and you buy one Bitcoin.
• 26:31
  Well, if you don't take that Bitcoin into custody and you
• 26:33
  leave that Bitcoin on the exchange, then they have one
• 26:36
  Bitcoin on the exchange and then someone else tries to buy a
• 26:38
  Bitcoin. And instead of actually having
• 26:40
  two Bitcoin on the exchange, they basically just sell the
• 26:43
  same Bitcoin to someone else. And that's how you start to make
• 26:46
  more paper claims in Bitcoin. We've seen this play out with
• 26:49
  gold and this is what Bitcoin was designed to do This is why
• 26:52
  we tell you guys constantly to take Bitcoin into custody call
• 26:56
  their bluff make sure you're securing that Bitcoin because
• 26:59
  this you can verify this for yourself now Luke going into the
• 27:03
  paper Bitcoin claims I do want to bring up one more Josh Mandel
• 27:07
  tweet because to him this is very simple what's going on so
• 27:12
  let me pull that up here and this is his explanation to what
• 27:16
  is going on with the paper Bitcoin.
• 27:18
  So Josh Mandel tweets you know first is hot of Florida.
• 27:22
  He goes on, man, if the, if this price doesn't start ripping,
• 27:26
  something's going on. There's some funny business.
• 27:28
  There's a lot of paper Bitcoin in the system and all of us
• 27:31
  Bitcoiners, well, not all of us, but some of us like check Matey,
• 27:34
  for example, he's like, bro, we just hit all time high like 2
• 27:36
  weeks ago. Like what are you talking about?
• 27:38
  Like lower your time preference. But Josh Mandel, of course, the
• 27:40
  guy who predicted the last crash and pump had predicted 444K by
• 27:46
  the end of last month. We didn't hit that.
• 27:48
  So maybe he's moving these predictions up.
• 27:50
  But here's his explanation of what paper Bitcoin means to him.
• 27:54
  And he goes it's simple short sellers.
• 27:56
  I bit, of course, BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, for example, are
• 28:00
  creating paper Bitcoin. This happens through operational
• 28:03
  short selling where market makers borrow ETF shares and
• 28:06
  short them while the fund itself holds the real Bitcoin.
• 28:09
  The result more claims on Bitcoin than actual coins.
• 28:13
  And then he doubled down on this and we have Adam graph goes
• 28:18
  every short is a future buy just depends at higher bad for them
• 28:21
  or lower lower good for them. They can wait it out and kick
• 28:24
  the can waiting to buy lower, but that cost them in the end.
• 28:27
  They will likely be forced to buy during a face melting candle
• 28:31
  one day out of nowhere. And of course, Josh Mandel with
• 28:33
  the meme this below. So that kind of explaining some
• 28:37
  of some of the new dynamics that we're seeing and it really does
• 28:41
  kind of make you think that this time is different.
• 28:43
  I know we've been saying that on the show for a while.
• 28:45
  A lot of Bitcoiners are saying no, man, for your cycle still in
• 28:48
  play. I think it's fundamentally
• 28:50
  different. The institutions are are here.
• 28:52
  They're seeing Bitcoin corporate treasury companies announce
• 28:55
  every week. I don't know.
• 28:57
  I think there's a whole new demand for Bitcoin from a place
• 29:01
  we didn't even expect and it is making a lot of bitcoiners feel
• 29:04
  weird about it. So we'll see what happened by
• 29:06
  the end of the week. Maybe I'm right that this is
• 29:08
  going to be a face melting week. I saw people say we're going to
• 29:11
  all time high today. Who knows?
• 29:13
  But it feels good. It feels good, Luke.
• 29:16
  We didn't double top. We didn't double top.
• 29:18
  The double top meme is dead today.
• 29:21
  It's not over, boys. Let's go pack in the SAT.
• 29:24
  Pack your bags. We are heading to the moon.
• 29:27
  Actually, do I have it? Hold on.
• 29:28
  Let me. Let me soundboard this before we
• 29:30
  move on. Is it in here?
• 29:31
  Oh, yeah. What do you got there?
• 29:32
  What do you got there? Oh, we're chart boy Rocket.
• 29:35
  Ship, get on board. Block by baby.
• 29:40
  Please do not trust an exchange that doesn't tell you where the
• 29:43
  yield is coming from. What do they say up there if you
• 29:46
  don't know where the yield is coming from?
• 29:47
  You are the yield. It's beautiful.
• 29:50
  Yeah. I mean, right now it looks like
• 29:52
  like an all time high by the end of the day.
• 29:55
  I mean, it's possible it's 100 and 1100 and $12,000.
• 29:58
  We're at 108 right now at the time of recording.
• 30:02
  That's huge. Bitcoin is moving up.
• 30:04
  And I I think you mentioned something really interesting in
• 30:07
  that tweet that you had a second ago.
• 30:10
  You were talking about a face melting rally, one of these
• 30:14
  massive God candles. This is again I think probably
• 30:19
  the most underappreciated event that I think is just reality.
• 30:23
  It's going to have to happen because once there is no Bitcoin
• 30:27
  on exchanges for these large short sellers to create paper
• 30:32
  Bitcoin, all of a sudden where is Michael going to find the
• 30:36
  10,000 Bitcoin that he probably wants to buy tomorrow?
• 30:40
  Where does he find the Bitcoin? Well, somebody's going to have
• 30:43
  to sell them. And the only question that we're
• 30:46
  left pondering is at what price are the players going to sell
• 30:51
  their Bitcoin and put it on the exchanges for Michael to buy it
• 30:54
  for? And that's where the liquidity
• 30:56
  for Bitcoin gets really thin. And that's where the price can
• 30:59
  really just start gapping up again.
• 31:02
  I very vaguely remember the 2017 bull run, but when Bitcoin was
• 31:06
  rallying from 5K to 6K to 7K, once it actually broke above all
• 31:12
  time highs. There were days when it was just
• 31:14
  climbing thousands of dollars every single day.
• 31:17
  And people were just in shock and awe watching the price go
• 31:21
  straight up nearly vertical. And we're going to see that
• 31:24
  again, except things are going to be different.
• 31:26
  We're going to be moving up $10,000 a day, $20,000 a day,
• 31:30
  $100,000 a day. And people faces are going to be
• 31:33
  absolutely melting watching the price chart go up.
• 31:36
  And this is just how Bitcoin evolves again.
• 31:39
  These big numbers scare people because today bitcoins at
• 31:43
  $100,000, people think they're late to Bitcoin, but they don't
• 31:47
  understand the fact that only 1% of the world owns Bitcoin.
• 31:51
  Arguably it's even less than that.
• 31:53
  So again, the bigger moves, they're going to actually happen
• 31:56
  in the future when the other 99% of the world all tries to
• 32:00
  scramble to buy Bitcoin. And I think that day could be
• 32:03
  coming much quicker than most people think.
• 32:04
  Yeah, I would actually. Actually, this is a good place
• 32:07
  to pivot because we are going to tee you up about that later.
• 32:11
  I, I, I teased it last week. I have Luke on today.
• 32:15
  He was saying some crazy stuff to me Thursday.
• 32:18
  I believe it was we were talking about.
• 32:20
  It seems like it's, it seems like we're winning, bro.
• 32:22
  It seems like this is the end game and you were saying, yes,
• 32:27
  this is the end game and it's going to happen a lot quicker.
• 32:30
  And I'm like, what do you mean? Like what, what are these time
• 32:32
  frames? What are these price
• 32:33
  predictions? And you're like, I think, you
• 32:34
  know, three years. I'm like, OK, what's the, what's
• 32:37
  the end game? And you're like, I'm like a
• 32:38
  million. You're like, no, 10 million in
• 32:40
  three years. I'm like, all right, you're
• 32:41
  tripping. You're now you're really, you
• 32:44
  know, eating, smoking your own supply here, Luke.
• 32:47
  But we're going to touch that at the end of the show.
• 32:49
  So before we do that though, guys, I do oops.
• 32:52
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• 32:57
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• 33:06
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• 33:46
  well. Anyways, we got a jam packed
• 33:47
  show and I have to smash it in really quickly, so let's just
• 33:50
  jump right into it. I want to tell you guys about
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• 35:07
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• 35:26
  All right guys, I'm over here on Clark Moody's dashboard and
• 35:29
  since I kind of have to run through today's show, I'm not
• 35:31
  going to cover all the numbers, but the current Bitcoin price is
• 35:33
  108,300 and the block height is 900,509 and the market cap in
• 35:39
  Fiat terms is $2.15 trillion. And of course, the total
• 35:44
  percentage of Bitcoin that will ever be issued is currently at
• 35:46
  94.65% and we're only a decline from all time high of -3%.
• 35:52
  Now I heard, you know, the chat talk a little bit about Pomp,
• 35:56
  but he made a great, great, you know, national television
• 36:00
  appearance this morning. And I think this is what we're
• 36:03
  seeing happen. A lot of bit corners have been
• 36:05
  talking about hyper bitcoinization forever.
• 36:08
  And what we're seeing is Bitcoin be monetized in real time.
• 36:11
  And as we talk about here constantly on the show, what's
• 36:14
  really going on is most people just don't understand the true
• 36:18
  value of Bitcoin. And this is what the market is
• 36:20
  doing in real time. When you go into Discovery
• 36:23
  Mountain, it's the collective consciousness coming to grips,
• 36:26
  coming to terms with what the real value is, a Bitcoin.
• 36:31
  Now I've said it a long time and I got corrected in the chat and
• 36:34
  I appreciate whoever corrected me.
• 36:36
  I would say that the Bitcoin price was a real time metric to
• 36:38
  people's understanding of Bitcoin.
• 36:40
  But in reality, it's the bottom of the bear market that is the
• 36:43
  real time metric of people's understanding of Bitcoin.
• 36:46
  But we're seeing Bitcoin be monetized in real time as a
• 36:49
  store value and of course what we constantly want to see as
• 36:52
  Bitcoin, the fabled medium of exchange and for us already a
• 36:56
  unit of account. But let's here's clip and then
• 36:58
  we will chat about it real quick.
• 37:01
  Bitcoin, now, I don't think that's something that's going to
• 37:02
  happen in 1-3, maybe even five years.
• 37:05
  But I do think that there is a growing group of people who say,
• 37:08
  look, this thing called Bitcoin is ultimately going to be a
• 37:11
  store value as it already is, but it will become a medium of
• 37:14
  exchange as well. It just needs to get to a point
• 37:17
  where the world all agrees on what is it worth.
• 37:19
  And if you think in 2018, the world thought it was worth $3000
• 37:22
  a coin, today the world thinks it's worth $105,000 a coin.
• 37:26
  It's going to continue to go higher and at some point it will
• 37:28
  reach some market equilibrium. And then when you see that
• 37:31
  switch over into, OK, now things are priced in Bitcoin, I think
• 37:34
  that's kind of the hyper bitcoinization that the
• 37:35
  Bitcoiners are waiting for. But there is a long path to get
• 37:39
  there. And the sequence right now is
• 37:40
  why would I want to spend my Bitcoin if it's going to be
• 37:43
  worth more in the future? A classic, classic Bitcoiner
• 37:47
  question. Why should I spend this Bitcoin
• 37:50
  when I can sell my Fiat? This Bitcoin's going up.
• 37:54
  Now, of course, as a bitcoiner, someone that, you know, I don't
• 37:58
  own Bitcoin, but if I did, I would be all in on Bitcoin and
• 38:01
  you would have to use that Bitcoin to survive.
• 38:03
  It is money after all. But this is, I think, in a very
• 38:07
  easy way to understand what's going on.
• 38:09
  Is the world wrapping their heads around what Bitcoin is,
• 38:12
  what the fair value, fair market value of Bitcoin should be.
• 38:16
  Now the interesting thing though, is this clip, he was
• 38:19
  kind of being asked, why should I hold Bitcoin versus stable
• 38:23
  coins? Do I want to hold a stable coin
• 38:26
  versus a Bitcoin? Now, I mean, it's literally in
• 38:29
  the definition, a stable coin is pegged to the dollar.
• 38:35
  By definition, it's going to be stable.
• 38:37
  There is no purchasing power gains here.
• 38:40
  So if that is your question here, it's obviously if you want
• 38:43
  to increase your purchasing power, if you're, you know, like
• 38:47
  a first worlder here, an investor here, you obviously
• 38:50
  want to hold Bitcoin. If you are just trying to
• 38:52
  survive and you know, you don't have a traditional banking
• 38:56
  system that maybe you want to hold stable coins, but I don't
• 38:58
  recommend that. I think everyone should just buy
• 39:00
  Bitcoin. It's very simple.
• 39:02
  Bitcoin number will go up, your purchasing power will go up and
• 39:05
  by definition, a stable coin will be stable.
• 39:08
  It won't go up in purchasing power guys.
• 39:11
  So I find the question hilarious, but we got to
• 39:14
  remember we do know a lot more here than most people were
• 39:17
  obsessed with Bitcoin. We're obsessed.
• 39:18
  We've been in the market for a long time.
• 39:20
  Again, time in the market beats timing the market.
• 39:23
  But you want to hold Bitcoin, guys, it's really simple.
• 39:25
  But anyways, Luke, I want to pose the question to you of what
• 39:28
  Pomp was saying about, you know, the market or the world
• 39:32
  understanding Bitcoin as a store of value and eventually a medium
• 39:35
  of exchange. Though he did say it's going to
• 39:37
  take a very long time. And I know we're going to touch
• 39:39
  on that later, Luke. So maybe you have some differing
• 39:42
  opinions here. Yeah, I mean, the world has
• 39:46
  slowly come to the realization that Bitcoin is the only asset
• 39:49
  you want to own. And this kind of ties into a
• 39:53
  comment here from Matt. What is that effect?
• 39:56
  That is the, what is it called Parados principle.
• 40:00
  OK, so wealth concentration typically follows A parados
• 40:04
  principle where 20% of the people hold 80% of the wealth.
• 40:08
  This isn't just a Bitcoin thing. This is in most countries all
• 40:11
  around the world. This is a global thing.
• 40:13
  This is just naturally what happens and it's not just
• 40:16
  applied to wealth distribution. This is again applied to
• 40:21
  businesses. 20% of your employees are probably going to
• 40:24
  give you 80% of the results. It's the same as if you're
• 40:27
  running a business, 20% of your clients is going to give you 80%
• 40:30
  of your revenue as an average. And I think the same thing will
• 40:34
  be applied onto a Bitcoin distribution, which kind of ties
• 40:37
  back to your question, Opti. The world is slowly coming to
• 40:40
  the realization that Bitcoin is a store of value.
• 40:43
  And it's my thought, and I just think of it as an extrapolation.
• 40:46
  I don't think of it as a theory. But in like 5 years time, 80% of
• 40:51
  the Bitcoin is probably going to be held by like 20% of the
• 40:54
  individuals. And the real number I'm so
• 40:57
  worried about is it's not going to be 20% of the people holding
• 41:01
  80% of the Bitcoin. I think it's more going to be
• 41:03
  like 20 people holding 80% of the Bitcoin.
• 41:07
  I know it sounds crazy, but I don't think it is.
• 41:09
  I think of that as just an extrapolation of current trends.
• 41:13
  BlackRock holds 3% of the supply.
• 41:15
  OK, I hear you guys. BlackRock is millions of
• 41:18
  individuals parking money at BlackRock.
• 41:20
  All right, let's ignore BlackRock.
• 41:22
  Let's put them to the side. Let's just look at Michael
• 41:24
  Saylor. The one public company owns
• 41:28
  nearly 3% of the supply. I just think that's going to be
• 41:31
  extrapolated out. I just think there's going to be
• 41:33
  567 public companies who are all going to sit on about 5 or 10%
• 41:38
  of the supplier. Again, the United States,
• 41:41
  they're sitting on supposedly 1% of the Bitcoin supply, about
• 41:44
  200,000 coins. China is rumored to be holding
• 41:47
  somewhere around that amount, 190,000 coins, which is also
• 41:51
  nearly 1% of the supply. And every single day we have new
• 41:54
  public companies coming out and saying, look, we want to emulate
• 41:58
  what Michael Saylor is doing. And these companies, they're
• 42:02
  they're, you know, they're, they're putting their money on
• 42:05
  the line. They're slapping their big wads
• 42:07
  of money on the table. They're saying, we want to
• 42:10
  compete. What was it, 21?
• 42:13
  This is the company formed by Tether, Jack Myers and Howard
• 42:17
  Lutnick, again, the man in charge of America's sovereign
• 42:21
  wealth fund. They're spinning up this 21
• 42:23
  capital company to compete with micro strategy.
• 42:26
  They're launching with 42,000 Bitcoin and their intentions is
• 42:31
  to buy a lot more Bitcoin. We've got Nakamoto brand new
• 42:34
  public company coming out there announcing their intentions to
• 42:37
  buy billions of dollars of Bitcoin.
• 42:40
  And was it Metaplanet recently came out and said they want to
• 42:43
  buy 1% of the Bitcoin supply, a tiny Japanese company that
• 42:48
  before Bitcoin, their market cap was literally $10 million.
• 42:54
  Somebody please Fact Check me. Because if a company that was
• 42:58
  $10 million in size gets to a scenario, again, they're not
• 43:03
  there yet. But if they can somehow
• 43:06
  accumulate 1% of the Bitcoin supply, 210,000 coins, that is
• 43:12
  the most ridiculous proof of concept I have ever seen.
• 43:17
  And if they even get halfway there, I can guarantee you there
• 43:21
  will be hundreds, if not thousands of public companies
• 43:24
  who will be absolutely scrambling to do the exact same
• 43:28
  thing that Michael Saylor and Metaplanet and all of these
• 43:32
  other 220 public companies at the time of this live stream
• 43:36
  have done. And that is sell their dirty
• 43:40
  Fiat and buy Bitcoin. So again, I am, my base case is
• 43:45
  20 individuals hold 80% of the Bitcoin supply.
• 43:48
  And I don't think it's a speculation.
• 43:50
  I'm just looking at the past five years of data.
• 43:52
  You put that forward into the next five years and it happens
• 43:55
  much quicker than most people. Think I can hear the Bitcoin is
• 43:59
  centralized, but coming out. Coming out now, Luke.
• 44:03
  Yeah, I mean, it's Pareto principle, you know, Google
• 44:06
  this, watch a YouTube video about it.
• 44:08
  You'll wrap your head around it if this is a new idea anyways, I
• 44:11
  do. I could add more to this loop,
• 44:12
  but I do want to rush quickly rush into the news because for
• 44:17
  you guys in the chat, we got an update from core.
• 44:19
  Some say this is devastating. You know, we, we've been hearing
• 44:23
  the drama. I'm I'm a little more neutral on
• 44:25
  it, but let's just get into it because I think this is the big
• 44:29
  news in Bitcoin right now. If you didn't see it on Twitter
• 44:31
  this morning, I'm sure it's going to, you know, kick up a
• 44:35
  whole new hornet's nest. But let's just get right into
• 44:37
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• 46:51
  some of you guys are going to freak out here, but the
• 46:53
  controversial Bitcoin Core pull request 32406 has been merged
• 47:00
  starting with version 30, except for October, the default value
• 47:04
  of data carrier size will change and the data carrier and data
• 47:07
  carrier, the size options will still work, but now trigger a
• 47:10
  warning. And of course, if this is, you
• 47:12
  know, too technical for you guys, this is about the OP
• 47:16
  return wars that we've been seeing.
• 47:18
  And so here's a GitHub where they were having this
• 47:20
  conversation and you can see Gloria Zhao talking about what
• 47:26
  happened. And as you can see up here, top
• 47:27
  left, it says merge. So this is being merged.
• 47:31
  I know there's been a lot of debate on Twitter about the OP
• 47:33
  return stuff, people picking size saying core is, you know,
• 47:37
  an attack on Bitcoin, It's been compromised.
• 47:39
  You should run knots. Everyone else is kind of saying,
• 47:42
  hey man, you know, competition is good, other implementations
• 47:45
  are good and the spam was already getting into the
• 47:48
  network. This is going to help the
• 47:50
  blockchain minimize the bloat. The other side saying this is
• 47:53
  going to add bloat. Again, this is above my pay
• 47:56
  grade. I'm not a technical dev here.
• 47:58
  I just, I try to understand what's going on here so I can
• 48:02
  pick which implementation I run. Full disclosure, I run Bitcoin
• 48:05
  Core, I think 27. I haven't updated in years.
• 48:08
  I don't really plan on updating. That's my recommendation here.
• 48:12
  But there has been a lot of talk about running knots recently.
• 48:14
  Anyways, I'm going to just read a little bit of the GitHub post
• 48:19
  and then kind of some responses from Bitcoin Core officially and
• 48:24
  then some Bitcoiners. So you can see here, after
• 48:27
  weighing the technical arguments forward slash against this
• 48:30
  change and considering the objections, I believe this is
• 48:33
  ready for merge. Below is my handwritten summary
• 48:36
  outlining why I think so. I'm including non exhausted list
• 48:39
  of links where possible, so if you like to analyze the same
• 48:41
  source without my personal bias, please do.
• 48:44
  The primary motivation for this pull request is to correct a
• 48:47
  mismatch between the harmfulness and standardness of data storage
• 48:50
  techniques. It makes the printable op return
• 48:53
  option available so that data is not stuffed into unprintable
• 48:56
  outputs while pub keys involve bloating.
• 48:59
  Oh wait, sorry. While proponents of the pull
• 49:01
  request aren't enthusiastic about data storage as a use
• 49:04
  case, the existing standard methods example bare pub keys,
• 49:08
  involved bloating the UTX O set representing a long term cost to
• 49:12
  the network. And this concern is not merely
• 49:14
  theoretical, as there are examples of designs and
• 49:17
  transactions that utilize the more harmful techniques.
• 49:21
  To elaborate, the pull request helps avoid a world in which an
• 49:24
  economically relevant volume of transactions is sent using
• 49:27
  direct submissions. We move closer to that world
• 49:29
  when large economic actors layer twos, exchanges, etcetera used
• 49:33
  to build direct relationship with large miners in order to
• 49:36
  get non standard transactions mined.
• 49:38
  If widely used central submission services undermine
• 49:41
  the permission list design of proof of work based consensus,
• 49:44
  hurt the censorship resistance and privacy of transaction
• 49:47
  broadcast, and destroy the fast block propagation our network
• 49:51
  has enjoyed for many years, all while not preventing the non
• 49:54
  standard transactions we dislike.
• 49:57
  So here I'll drop the whole link here for you guys in the chat if
• 50:02
  you want to go read it. If you weren't aware of it
• 50:07
  again, hey, if you don't like this, don't run core.
• 50:10
  It's kind of my my take away here, but there has been a
• 50:14
  pretty good discussion. So Bitcoin Core official Twitter
• 50:18
  said they dropped a statement around it.
• 50:19
  And just kind of reading the statement a little bit, I'm
• 50:22
  going to summarize, you know, there's been a lot of talk
• 50:26
  lately about Bitcoin Core being an attack on Bitcoin, that
• 50:30
  there's a, you know, a centralization threat via
• 50:33
  Bitcoin core, that Bitcoin Core is Bitcoin, et cetera.
• 50:37
  And there's been, it's been what weeks now that people been
• 50:40
  fighting about this. Again, I'm not the most
• 50:43
  technical, but I wasn't so dire about it and I'm, I really
• 50:48
  thought this was kind of, you know, making a big deal out of a
• 50:51
  molehill. But again, what do I know?
• 50:53
  So here's the official statement.
• 50:55
  I'll read a little bit of this as well.
• 50:56
  Then I'll go over some kind of responses from the community and
• 51:00
  then I don't know if Luke has anything to chime in or we just
• 51:03
  go straight into some bullishness.
• 51:04
  So here's from bitcoincore.org and it goes Bitcoin core
• 51:06
  development and transaction relay policy.
• 51:09
  We'd like to share our view on the relationship between Bitcoin
• 51:11
  core development and transaction relay policy on the network.
• 51:15
  Bitcoin is a network that is defined by its users, who have
• 51:17
  ultimate freedom in choosing what software they use, who's
• 51:20
  fully validating or not, and implementing whatever policies
• 51:23
  they desire. Bitcoin Core contributors are
• 51:25
  not in a position to mandate what those are.
• 51:27
  One way this is reflected is by our long running practice of
• 51:30
  avoiding auto updating in the software.
• 51:33
  This means that no entity can unilaterally push out changes to
• 51:36
  Bitcoin Core users. Changes must be made by users
• 51:39
  choosing to adopt new software releases themselves or, if they
• 51:43
  so desire, different software. Being free to run any software
• 51:46
  is the network's primary safeguard against coercion.
• 51:50
  As Bitcoin Core developers, we also consider it our
• 51:52
  responsibility to make our software work as efficiently and
• 51:55
  reliably as possible for its purpose, namely validating and
• 52:00
  relaying blocks and transactions in the Bitcoin peer-to-peer
• 52:02
  network so that Bitcoin succeeds as decentralized digital
• 52:06
  currency. With regards to transaction
• 52:08
  relay, this may include adding policies for denial of services,
• 52:11
  DOS protection and fee assessment, but not blocking
• 52:14
  relay of transactions that have sustained economic demand and
• 52:17
  reliably make it into blocks. The goals of transaction
• 52:20
  transactions relay include, and I'll wrap it up right here,
• 52:22
  predicting what transactions will be mined, for example, for
• 52:25
  fee estimate estimation or fee bumping.
• 52:27
  But it is also the basis for many DOS protection strategies
• 52:31
  inside of node software, speeding up block propagation
• 52:33
  for the transactions we expect to be mined.
• 52:36
  Reduced latency helps prevent large miners from gaining unfair
• 52:39
  advantages and helping miners learn about fee paying
• 52:41
  transactions so they do not need to rely on out of band
• 52:45
  transaction submission schemes that undermine mining
• 52:48
  decentralization. So again, probably a lot of
• 52:52
  jargon that that most of you don't really care about, but
• 52:55
  I'll drop this for you guys if you want to read the whole
• 52:57
  statement yourselves. And then here is a couple
• 53:01
  follow-ups again, I'm going to drop them in the chat for you
• 53:03
  guys. It's too much for us to read on
• 53:06
  today's show, but from what I kind of gathered throughout this
• 53:10
  whole OP return war that we are seeing from my take away again
• 53:17
  is that you know, the spams already being put into the
• 53:20
  network and miners and you know, the spammers, if you want to
• 53:23
  call them them can find workarounds around this off
• 53:27
  return limit. Now you have like the ocean team
• 53:29
  and Bitcoin mechanic kind of, you know, going out there and
• 53:32
  saying like, oh, Bitcoins over, you know, it's going to be a
• 53:35
  spam chain. I want just pure transactions on
• 53:38
  the network. And you know, I see both sides
• 53:41
  of the argument. Again, I'm not technical enough
• 53:44
  to really like voice my opinion into the the technical matters
• 53:49
  of it. But again, I voice my opinion by
• 53:52
  running an old version of core and verifying my Bitcoin
• 53:55
  transactions with that old version of core, which is how
• 53:59
  you basically make your voice heard.
• 54:00
  So if you are on the side of cores attacking Bitcoin, then
• 54:04
  you run knots. If you're on the side of kind of
• 54:07
  like me, like more neutral, I run an old version of core.
• 54:11
  If you think that this is going to be better for the UTXO blow,
• 54:16
  then you run the latest version. I think I think we're maybe it's
• 54:20
  because the the Bitcoin prices going sideways.
• 54:23
  You know, bitcoiners like to argue.
• 54:25
  Anyways, here is some of the takeaways from Twitter.
• 54:29
  We have Jimmy Song. There's a weird fantasy from the
• 54:30
  up return limit removing side where they're daring people to
• 54:33
  fork Bitcoin. They're wishing to fight the
• 54:35
  last war against an incompetent enemy which has zero chance of
• 54:38
  happening. What it does reveal is how bad
• 54:40
  they are at game theory next. Actually, here's here's a little
• 54:45
  more Jimmy song this morning. OP return outputs greater than
• 54:48
  83 bytes will increase significantly.
• 54:50
  UTXO bloat will keep getting worse and there will be more
• 54:53
  garbage on chain. This is going to age like a bad
• 54:56
  tattoo. And he goes, jeez.
• 54:58
  I'm saying that UTX bloat is going to get bigger because
• 55:00
  nothing is being done about the actual spam that's bloating it,
• 55:03
  inscriptions, etcetera. Not that OP return outputs are
• 55:07
  in the UTXO set. And then Leo from I believe
• 55:11
  oceans, he's got the ocean tags. Here he goes.
• 55:13
  Today is a really sad day. Bitcoin Core is now fully
• 55:16
  malicious. There's no longer any filters on
• 55:18
  Bitcoin core against shit coins on the chain.
• 55:20
  If you still run core, I very strongly urge you to switch to
• 55:22
  knots or not update core, not updating core.
• 55:26
  I don't update my my my my node for years.
• 55:29
  This is this is by design. Bitcoin is our only chance to
• 55:33
  escape the Fiat tyranny and core is actively destroy trying to
• 55:36
  destroy that chance. Now here's here's a good back
• 55:40
  and forth. So Parker Lewis goes in on this,
• 55:43
  you know, merge PR from Insta Gibbs and he goes, I would
• 55:46
  encourage anyone running Bitcoin Core to do their own research on
• 55:48
  this one before upgrading when released, the horrible precedent
• 55:51
  it's set and the combined risk of a centralized core plus
• 55:54
  centralized mining pools creates an untenable situation.
• 55:57
  Off return is a distraction. And then, you know, one of the
• 56:00
  most toxic tweeters, Mr. Harder goes, I would encourage everyone
• 56:04
  reading this tweet to understand that most people in this space
• 56:06
  are technically ignorant of Bitcoin Park being one of them.
• 56:10
  They should be ignored. Follow the people who got
• 56:12
  Bitcoin to where it is today. And the the irony of all this, I
• 56:16
  think is I don't know if you guys been watching the men pools
• 56:19
  the last couple of days, but it's been a ghost town guys.
• 56:23
  It this morning there was one block that was like 1/4 filled.
• 56:26
  You can see here where one what 4 about 3 1/2 blocks.
• 56:31
  The fees are low. So as much as we're talking
• 56:34
  about scaling Bitcoin and UTXO blow and spammers ruining
• 56:40
  Bitcoin, it does feel like a distraction to me and not that
• 56:46
  many people is is actually using the blockchain.
• 56:48
  So again, here's the PSA. Maybe it's time for you to
• 56:53
  consolidate some UTX OS, take your Bitcoin off exchanges and
• 56:57
  actually use the blockchain. You know, use the time chain
• 57:01
  mechanism so that you can take your Bitcoin into cold storage.
• 57:05
  I don't know. Again, I like Huddle said, I'm
• 57:08
  not the most technical here, but I voice my opinion by running an
• 57:11
  old version of core. But that PR, that pull request
• 57:14
  is getting merged into the latest update.
• 57:17
  So, you know, FYI, that is the case.
• 57:20
  Whether you take the side that Bitcoin Core is malicious or
• 57:22
  attacking Bitcoin, by all means, you know, do what you think is
• 57:26
  best. If you take kind of the more
• 57:28
  neutral other side, it's like, hey, there's going to be spam on
• 57:31
  the network and this is, this is for better efficiency, you know,
• 57:35
  choice is yours. So there's the news.
• 57:37
  You guys got the update. Luke, do you want to touch on
• 57:41
  this or do you just want to jump straight into, let's just get
• 57:43
  super bullish? You're muted bro.
• 57:50
  Oh, interesting. So my quick thoughts on the
• 57:54
  whole core debate is again, what I want in the world.
• 58:00
  Again, what I want doesn't matter, but I just think Bitcoin
• 58:03
  should be used as money and I would love to see a world where
• 58:07
  the entire world gets the chance to make an on you know on chain
• 58:12
  transaction while they can still afford to before we do get
• 58:16
  priced out yes, I definitely it's a great point the healthy
• 58:19
  raises right now the blocks are pretty much empty.
• 58:23
  There is not a lot of spam on chain or anything like that.
• 58:26
  But again, I would, I would much prefer to see the world, all the
• 58:30
  people in Africa, the Middle East and you know, Asia have the
• 58:35
  chance to make a Bitcoin on chain transaction while they can
• 58:38
  still afford to, as opposed to them being priced out maybe 10
• 58:43
  years earlier than they would have if we just fill the
• 58:46
  blockchain up with gambling and Jpegs.
• 58:49
  That's just what I want in the world.
• 58:50
  But at the end of the day, I love Bitcoin because it's
• 58:53
  unchangeable, it's immutable, and it is a system and that
• 58:58
  cannot be controlled by anyone. So I, I, I just kind of sit on
• 59:01
  that. Yeah, I'm also a monetary maxi,
• 59:03
  of course. I don't care for inscriptions or
• 59:06
  brunes or whatever, you know, NFT on Bitcoin blockchains type
• 59:12
  stuff. There is, you know, some use
• 59:14
  case for putting data into off returns.
• 59:17
  I mean, the most legendary, of course, or rather putting data
• 59:20
  into the blockchain. It's a it's a genesis block,
• 59:23
  like time stamping doesn't doesn't really do much to the
• 59:27
  the bloat side of the UTXO side. So again, I'm not here to, as a
• 59:32
  lot of people the the negative side would say to propagate
• 59:36
  spammers or people putting shit coins on Bitcoin.
• 59:40
  I'm a I'm a monetary. I want, I'm a monetary man.
• 59:42
  Actually, I want to see the Bitcoin time trade being used
• 59:45
  for monetary transactions, you know, peer-to-peer money.
• 59:48
  That's, that's what I signed up for.
• 59:51
  Hopefully other people are here for the same thing, but you
• 59:53
  never know. You know, degenerate scammers,
• 59:55
  degenerate spammers will do what they do regardless of the
• 59:59
  technical conversation here. So just you know, FYI, that's
• 1:00:03
  what's happening in October. The latest core update will
• 1:00:08
  basically merge that pull request.
• 1:00:10
  Anyways, I do want to jump into Luke getting super bullish here
• 1:00:13
  because I I'm really like he told me this Thursday I believe.
• 1:00:18
  And I'm trying to hear more of the rationale we were working.
• 1:00:21
  And he's like, yeah, you just kind of threw it out there.
• 1:00:23
  So, Luke, we're going to break this all down and we'll do it
• 1:00:25
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  OK, before we move on, Diogenes the great shouts out to him the
• 1:02:34
  push back. Any paid transaction is a valid
• 1:02:37
  transaction. I, I, I actually totally agree
• 1:02:39
  with that. Anyways, putting some context
• 1:02:41
  here. So Thursday I was talking with
• 1:02:43
  Luke before the show and he was saying something on I forget
• 1:02:48
  what I like prompted you with, but I would basically asked him
• 1:02:52
  like, are we winning? Is this over?
• 1:02:55
  And and then Luke was saying, dude, it's over.
• 1:02:58
  We've won. The world just hasn't woken up
• 1:03:01
  to it. Like this is the end game.
• 1:03:03
  And I asked you, I'm like, what? What do you mean by end game?
• 1:03:05
  Is that like $1,000,000 Bitcoin? And you're like, no, it means
• 1:03:09
  $10 million Bitcoin. I'm like, yeah, OK, you're
• 1:03:12
  tripping. And then and then the, the real
• 1:03:15
  kicker here was what's this time frame, Luke?
• 1:03:17
  And you're like $10 million Bitcoin by three years.
• 1:03:20
  So that's the context here, Luke, break this down for the
• 1:03:23
  people. Why do you think this and is is
• 1:03:25
  this just being stupidly bullish or is there math to back this
• 1:03:29
  up? Yes.
• 1:03:32
  So I don't even just think that that's kind of been my
• 1:03:35
  hypothesis for the past five years.
• 1:03:37
  I wrote like a super long, super boring like 8000 word article
• 1:03:41
  back in 2021 saying look at the time the stock to flow model was
• 1:03:45
  super popular. And again, everybody was
• 1:03:47
  engagement farming off the stock to flow model.
• 1:03:50
  It was very unpopular to say I don't believe in a model that
• 1:03:53
  predicts in 200 that's predicting $288,000 Bitcoin next
• 1:03:58
  year. I was again one of the very few
• 1:04:00
  and very loud people saying it's going to break its BS.
• 1:04:04
  And that's all because of everything that's happened over
• 1:04:06
  the past five years, the supply suffocation.
• 1:04:08
  And I just don't think we can model what happens to the price
• 1:04:11
  of Bitcoin when the number of Bitcoin on exchanges hits zero.
• 1:04:15
  And again, I'm screaming about it today, but I was also
• 1:04:18
  screaming about it five years ago when the trend just started.
• 1:04:21
  I said if this trend continues, this is in 2021.
• 1:04:24
  I was saying if this trend continues, there's no Bitcoin in
• 1:04:26
  exchanges by 2030. And I predict I'm pretty, I'm
• 1:04:31
  very confident of the fact that that doesn't mean $1,000,000
• 1:04:34
  Bitcoin, doesn't mean $2,000,000 Bitcoin.
• 1:04:36
  It means 10 million dollar Bitcoin plus.
• 1:04:39
  And the kicker here, OPT is I actually think Bitcoin's going
• 1:04:42
  much higher than $10 million. Again, a three-year time window.
• 1:04:45
  That's really aggressive. So again, I like to stay
• 1:04:49
  conservative when I throw out big numbers like that.
• 1:04:51
  But I think like within 10 years, I'm extremely confident
• 1:04:55
  the price of Bitcoin is going to be worth hundreds of millions of
• 1:04:58
  dollars per coin. And when I say things like that,
• 1:05:01
  people say, OK, you're crazy. You're talking about
• 1:05:04
  hyperinflation though. And I say, no, no, no, I'm not
• 1:05:07
  talking about hyperinflation. I'm not exaggerating.
• 1:05:10
  I genuinely think one Bitcoin will be worth hundreds of
• 1:05:14
  millions of dollars per coin, if not even more.
• 1:05:18
  And that's purely because of the thing that my fellow Australian
• 1:05:21
  Peter Dunworth, again a money manager for 30 years, always
• 1:05:26
  talks about. Here's a really good
• 1:05:28
  hypothetical scenario that I've crunched the numbers on to
• 1:05:31
  verify on my own channel. And the math it checks out.
• 1:05:35
  If we get, if we assume Bitcoin is what it is, that means
• 1:05:39
  Bitcoin is eventually going to be used for global trade.
• 1:05:42
  It is not just going to be store value for the world.
• 1:05:45
  There's a world where Bitcoin is the unit of account for the
• 1:05:48
  entire world. And if that is true, how is
• 1:05:52
  Bitcoin able to facilitate global trade?
• 1:05:55
  Again, the my assumption here is that all of the Bitcoin, the
• 1:06:00
  large majority of the Bitcoin is going to be held in public
• 1:06:03
  corporation coffers. So it's going to be sat on the
• 1:06:06
  balance sheet of micro strategy or nation states or, you know,
• 1:06:11
  any other billionaire who's just holding Bitcoin for 100 years,
• 1:06:13
  They don't care about the price. And again, this is a
• 1:06:16
  hypothetical thought experiment. So again, you know, do your own
• 1:06:20
  numbers and do your own math. But if you assume all of the
• 1:06:23
  Bitcoin, again run your run your own numbers.
• 1:06:26
  But if you assume all the Bitcoin is not moving, then the
• 1:06:29
  Bitcoin that is mined every single day has to facilitate
• 1:06:34
  global trade. When you run the numbers,
• 1:06:36
  there's about $1.87 trillion of economic activity every single
• 1:06:41
  day. And this is actually ignoring
• 1:06:44
  the forex trading. The forex markets every day is
• 1:06:48
  one of the biggest markets in the entire world.
• 1:06:51
  But again, if we're on a Bitcoin standard, there is no forex
• 1:06:54
  because Bitcoin is the only money.
• 1:06:56
  So again, if we've got $1.87 trillion of economic trade that
• 1:07:00
  has to be facilitated by 450 Bitcoin that is mined every day,
• 1:07:05
  that's the only supply that's actually there available to
• 1:07:08
  facilitate all of the global trade.
• 1:07:10
  And again, if you want to assume, OK, the Ogs are going to
• 1:07:13
  sell 1000 coins every day because they're going to take
• 1:07:15
  profits, or the Hodler's going to sell 10,000 coins every day,
• 1:07:19
  run your own numbers and run your own maths.
• 1:07:21
  But nobody is thinking even close to the direction of where
• 1:07:26
  the real price of the purchasing power of Bitcoin is.
• 1:07:29
  Because if you've got $2 trillion of global economic
• 1:07:32
  trade done every day, there's 450 Bitcoin.
• 1:07:35
  The price of a Bitcoin isn't $10 million, it's not $100 million,
• 1:07:39
  it's not even a billion dollars. It is multiples.
• 1:07:42
  It is multiple billions of dollars per Bitcoin.
• 1:07:45
  OK, So again, run your own numbers, say ran your own
• 1:07:49
  hypothetical thought experiments.
• 1:07:50
  Assume there's a, you know, 10,000 Bitcoin sold every day by
• 1:07:54
  the hodlers. The math is still mind boggling.
• 1:07:57
  And we're not talking about $10 million or $50 million Bitcoin.
• 1:08:00
  We're talking about numbers far more crazy.
• 1:08:03
  So again, the end game is that the end game is Bitcoin is worth
• 1:08:07
  billions of dollars per coin. I'm confident we've reached that
• 1:08:11
  world much quicker than most people think.
• 1:08:14
  I think it's 10 to 15 years away in reality then we've had whole,
• 1:08:18
  there's a lot of volatility to get there.
• 1:08:20
  There's going to be face melting volatility.
• 1:08:22
  But yeah, I think it's all over in three years because of all
• 1:08:25
  the charts we keep talking about today, Opti, there is simply not
• 1:08:30
  enough Bitcoin on exchanges. And if the trend over the past
• 1:08:33
  two to three years continues, there's no Bitcoin on exchanges
• 1:08:36
  in three years. I think the short term
• 1:08:39
  consequences of that is Bitcoin finds its way to $10 million in
• 1:08:44
  the space of months. Again, there's going to be so
• 1:08:47
  much volatility. Just because the number of
• 1:08:49
  Bitcoin exchanges goes to 0 doesn't mean Bitcoin goes
• 1:08:52
  straight to 10 million. No, no, no, no.
• 1:08:54
  It might go to 180 and then a big correction as people put a
• 1:08:57
  ton of Bitcoin on exchanges. Then the number on exchanges
• 1:09:01
  runs out a month later. Then it spikes up to 500.
• 1:09:04
  Then a lot of people sell some more Bitcoin.
• 1:09:06
  Same thing plays out. The whales step in and they buy
• 1:09:09
  that amount of Bitcoin off exchanges.
• 1:09:10
  Then it runs to 0 again, spikes to 2 million, and you're just
• 1:09:13
  going to see a lot of volatility when this happens and all of
• 1:09:16
  these models are going to get wrecked and all of these people
• 1:09:20
  selling their Bitcoin on exchanges, each price spike,
• 1:09:24
  they're going to woefully regret the decision when the next big
• 1:09:27
  spike happens. And again, I think $10 million
• 1:09:31
  Bitcoin in three years is it's, it's really not as bullish as
• 1:09:34
  most people think. That's just.
• 1:09:36
  That's my yeah, the chat, The chat.
• 1:09:38
  Did he just predict billion dollar Bitcoin in three years?
• 1:09:43
  10 years, 10 years, 10 years, but yes, 10 years.
• 1:09:48
  It's happening much quicker than.
• 1:09:49
  Amazing. OK.
• 1:09:51
  I could jump in and just, you know, get super bullish, but I
• 1:09:55
  think a good maybe experiment or thought process here is what's
• 1:10:00
  the steel man for the opposite of that happening.
• 1:10:03
  So you know, you can think critically here.
• 1:10:07
  Yeah. So that is again, there is no, I
• 1:10:11
  don't, I don't think there's any plausible argument for that not
• 1:10:17
  happening. The only plausible argument is
• 1:10:20
  the timeline. How long are we able to suppress
• 1:10:25
  the price of Bitcoin and stop that future from happening?
• 1:10:28
  That's why I'm a little bit iffy on giving, you know, three-year
• 1:10:31
  price predictions on Bitcoin. I'm much more comfortable with
• 1:10:35
  10 year time horizon. And again, my original
• 1:10:38
  prediction hasn't changed since like 2020-2021.
• 1:10:43
  I'd said it's all over by 20-30. I do think it's all over and we
• 1:10:46
  are looking at $10 million Bitcoin by 20-30.
• 1:10:49
  And again, that's not just based upon the supply suffocation
• 1:10:53
  we're seeing. That is also based on how
• 1:10:55
  technologies get adopted in exponential curves.
• 1:10:58
  But I'm not going to go down that rabbit hole because that's
• 1:10:59
  another 20 minute tangent. I think the the best argument
• 1:11:03
  for why that will not happen would would purely be are we
• 1:11:08
  going to see more and more attacks on Bitcoin that slows
• 1:11:11
  down the price of Bitcoin reflecting the underlying
• 1:11:15
  fundamentals. Because again, there's nothing
• 1:11:18
  stopping the supply suffocation that's happening underneath the
• 1:11:21
  market, underneath the water. So to say.
• 1:11:24
  Again, all of the FTX, FUD and naked selling Bitcoin in 2022,
• 1:11:29
  all of the ESG, all of the energy FUD, all of the China
• 1:11:33
  FUD, all of the Elon Musk FUD, all of the Larry Fink and
• 1:11:37
  BlackRock, none of it worked. Yes, it worked on suppressing
• 1:11:41
  the price during 2021 and 2022, but what happened in 2021 and
• 1:11:46
  2022? Well, I've got the chart.
• 1:11:48
  I'll show you the chart. Coins on exchanges were
• 1:11:51
  continually stripped. They were strip mined.
• 1:11:54
  People continued to take Bitcoin off the exchanges.
• 1:11:58
  So if someone very quietly was buying 10s of thousands,
• 1:12:03
  hundreds of thousands, millions of Bitcoin, all despite all of
• 1:12:07
  that FUD. So I think the only thing that
• 1:12:10
  honestly stops adopting is just genuinely, when does this
• 1:12:14
  happen? It does it happen in three
• 1:12:16
  years, five years or 10? That's why I'm really confident,
• 1:12:18
  because when the Bitcoin on exchanges hit zero, there's no
• 1:12:21
  amount of FUD that someone can make up and just arbitrarily
• 1:12:25
  create. That's going to force Michael
• 1:12:27
  Saylor to say, yeah, you know what, I'm wrong.
• 1:12:30
  I might be sitting on 2 million coins.
• 1:12:32
  I'm going to sell them. It's not going to happen.
• 1:12:34
  I'm sure it might happen on the margin, but I, I just think the
• 1:12:38
  only way we don't get to a world where Bitcoin's worth hundreds
• 1:12:41
  of millions of dollars per coin is if Bitcoin fails.
• 1:12:45
  Like I think Bitcoin failing or Bitcoin being worth a billion
• 1:12:50
  dollars a coin are the only two outcomes when it comes to
• 1:12:54
  Bitcoin. CK Snucks, now the Human Rights
• 1:12:58
  Foundation. He was the one who really nailed
• 1:13:01
  this into my brain way back in the day, like 2020.
• 1:13:04
  He was like, look, Bitcoin's a binary bet.
• 1:13:06
  It's all or nothing. I was like, yeah, you know what?
• 1:13:08
  That actually makes sense. The most unlikely outcome is
• 1:13:12
  that Bitcoin gets to $500,000 or $1,000,000 per coin and just
• 1:13:16
  stays there. And it's just digital gold.
• 1:13:19
  That is the most unlikely outcome, but it's what everybody
• 1:13:23
  thinks is going to happen. Most people say, Oh yeah,
• 1:13:25
  $1,000,000 Bitcoin, $2,000,000 Bitcoin, $3,000,000 Bitcoin, but
• 1:13:29
  it's just going to stay there. No, it's not.
• 1:13:31
  It cannot stay there because Bitcoin is different to every
• 1:13:34
  other asset. And it is unlike gold.
• 1:13:38
  If you could create paper Bitcoin forever, then there
• 1:13:42
  might be a world where Bitcoin stays at 2 million or $3,000,000
• 1:13:45
  Bitcoin. But because Bitcoin is
• 1:13:47
  transparent, we can see how much Bitcoin is on chain and how much
• 1:13:53
  Bitcoin is on exchanges. And when that number of Bitcoin
• 1:13:56
  exchanges hits zero, it's it's all over.
• 1:13:59
  It's it's all over. And we're looking at a Bitcoin
• 1:14:02
  price much higher. Again, I'm really trying to rack
• 1:14:04
  my brain here. But there is in my mind there is
• 1:14:08
  no in between. We have never seen a monetary
• 1:14:11
  transition where a new, better money has come along and the old
• 1:14:15
  money has a significant portion of that purchasing power.
• 1:14:19
  Again, how much money is stored in gold today, $20 trillion.
• 1:14:25
  There's $900 trillion in the world today.
• 1:14:28
  Gold has been completely demonetized.
• 1:14:32
  Gold used to represent 90 to 95% of the globe's savings.
• 1:14:39
  Again, gold was the best money in the 17 eighteens in the 17
• 1:14:43
  and the 1800s. It got obsoleted by paper money
• 1:14:48
  and now gold has been completely demonetized.
• 1:14:50
  It's lost 99% of its purchasing power.
• 1:14:53
  And again, if you look back through our history, whether it
• 1:14:55
  was glass beads, rye stones, copper, seashells, silver or
• 1:15:03
  gold, every single form of money that's been beaten or obsoleted
• 1:15:08
  by better form of money, it's lost 99% of its purchasing
• 1:15:11
  power. So I just think it's an all or
• 1:15:13
  nothing binary bet to say Bitcoin's just digital gold is
• 1:15:16
  just going to be worth 500,000 or a million or 2 million just
• 1:15:21
  because a power law says so. That's the most.
• 1:15:25
  Again, let's just rein myself in here for a minute.
• 1:15:28
  I just don't think. I just think that opinion is
• 1:15:31
  purely based on opinions. It's just because people can
• 1:15:34
  draw a line on chart. It completely ignores 8000 years
• 1:15:39
  of monetary history. It completely ignores 200,000
• 1:15:44
  years of technological history because the exact same thing is
• 1:15:48
  true for every technology. Whenever we find a new
• 1:15:51
  technology that's 1000 times better than the past one, it
• 1:15:55
  completely obsoletes the prior technologies.
• 1:15:58
  Again, how many people spend, you know, 50% of their time
• 1:16:03
  writing notes on a piece of paper and mailing it to their
• 1:16:06
  friends on the other side of the planet?
• 1:16:08
  No, people do not diversify with their telecommunications.
• 1:16:12
  They do not diversify with using horses 40% of the time because
• 1:16:18
  hey, I have to be safe, I have to be diversified.
• 1:16:21
  No, people use cars 99.99% of the time.
• 1:16:26
  The invention of the automobile in the early 1900s completely
• 1:16:30
  obsoleted horses in 15 years. Cars went from zero to 95% of
• 1:16:37
  Rd. traffic in 15 years. OK, I think Bitcoin's just going
• 1:16:42
  to do the same thing. There's $900 trillion of capital
• 1:16:45
  around the world today, and Bitcoin's going to come and eat
• 1:16:48
  90 to 95% of that capital much quicker than most people thinks.
• 1:16:53
  And when it does that, it's going to be worth hundreds of
• 1:16:56
  millions, if not billions of dollars per coin purely because
• 1:17:00
  wealth follows a Pareto's principle.
• 1:17:02
  And we're going to see 20% of the people, which I actually
• 1:17:05
  think is more like 20 people holding 90% of the coins.
• 1:17:09
  And then you, I have 8 billion people wanting to perform
• 1:17:12
  economic trade with the 1,000,000 or the 2 million
• 1:17:16
  Bitcoin that actually circulates and is available for sale.
• 1:17:19
  And again, I think that number is much lower.
• 1:17:21
  I think that number is more like 200 to 300, maybe 400,000
• 1:17:26
  Bitcoin that actually circulates on a daily basis.
• 1:17:29
  And that number is going to continue to shrink and shrink
• 1:17:31
  and shrink as more and more Bitcoin enters the never sell
• 1:17:35
  portion of the Bitcoin supply. And that is the Bitcoin held by
• 1:17:39
  nation States and Michael Saylor, and that is the Bitcoin
• 1:17:42
  back in, you know, government bonds around the world.
• 1:17:45
  Yes, there's still going to be government bonds for the next
• 1:17:48
  510 or 15 years, but they're all going to be backed by Bitcoin.
• 1:17:51
  This is just the transition that we're going through.
• 1:17:53
  And again, I, I, I would love, I would love somebody to pick some
• 1:17:57
  holes in my logic, but I, I just think it's already happening.
• 1:18:01
  I think the past five years has proved it is already happening.
• 1:18:05
  The only question in my mind is. When, hold on, I am Bill.
• 1:18:09
  Oh wait, wrong one. Sorry, wrong one, wrong one.
• 1:18:12
  I meant to do. I meant to do some horn shredded
• 1:18:16
  at 60s responses. Dude, I live in Montana and we
• 1:18:20
  still have horses all over the road.
• 1:18:21
  So you got holes in your theory, Luke.
• 1:18:24
  No, I I think the biggest head scratching moment is that idea
• 1:18:31
  that you got from Peter Dunworth.
• 1:18:33
  And you've explained this to me in the past.
• 1:18:35
  Go listen to Peter explain this. Obviously he talks about this
• 1:18:37
  for like hours on end, but the idea of there's going to be a
• 1:18:41
  lot less Bitcoin circulating in the future.
• 1:18:45
  And if that small amount of Bitcoin that is circulating will
• 1:18:49
  account for a significant portion of global capital, then
• 1:18:55
  just by simple math, each Bitcoin's going to be worth a
• 1:18:58
  shit ton of money. That I think that idea in itself
• 1:19:01
  is a very interesting idea. Now, if it's if this plays out,
• 1:19:05
  who knows? But thank you Luke.
• 1:19:09
  We finally got some extra bull sauce on the show.
• 1:19:12
  Luke is able to explain this to me guys, you already know Luke's
• 1:19:17
  coming on the show more often. We'll be getting more bull
• 1:19:19
  tarted on the show as we move forward.
• 1:19:21
  So Luke, thank you so much for coming on today.
• 1:19:24
  Let me pull you behind the scenes and let me wrap this show
• 1:19:27
  up. OK guys, so this was episode I
• 1:19:32
  think 12621262. It is Monday June 9th.
• 1:19:36
  Bitcoin price is pumping, it feels good.
• 1:19:39
  Go outside, touch some grass, eat some good food, get a
• 1:19:42
  workout in. I'm actually late to go to the
• 1:19:44
  gym right now, but hey, we got to do our work first.
• 1:19:46
  Anyways, spin your host Opti and I will see you tomorrow.
• 1:19:50
  Nico actually will be here tomorrow so plans change.
• 1:19:55
  Show will be normal tomorrow. On that note, peace out guys, we
• 1:19:58
  will catch you tomorrow same time as O ES 12:15-ish PM Monday
• 1:20:03
  through Friday. I late.
• 1:20:05
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:20:08
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:20:11
  independence.