Latest / The SPY Trader / Collision of Catalysts: Rates, Rockets, and the Jobs Report

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Collision of Catalysts: Rates, Rockets, and the Jobs Report · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , market movers !
• 0:02
  You are listening to Spy Trader , your goto source for making sense of the madness on Wall Street .
• 0:07
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and it is exactly 6 am on Sunday , August 2nd , 2026 , out here on the beautiful Pacific coast .
• 0:17
  Whether you are sipping your first cup of coffee or just getting back from an early jog , I am glad you are here with me as we prep for the first full week of August .
• 0:26
  It is going to be a wild one .
• 0:29
  We are staring down what analysts are calling a collision of catalysts .
• 0:33
  After a volatile July where the S&P 500 , or the SPY as we like to call it , ended with a slight loss , investors are looking for a clear direction .
• 0:44
  We have got sluggish GDP growth sitting at 1.5 percent and inflation that is cooling off but staying a bit stickier than we would like .
• 0:53
  The big news from the Federal Reserve recently was Chair Kevin Warsh holding rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent .
• 1:02
  However , there were three dissenting votes wanting a hike .
• 1:06
  That has the market pricing in an 80 percent chance of a rate hike in September .
• 1:11
  This puts massive pressure on this Friday , August 7th , when the July Jobs Report comes out .
• 1:17
  We are looking for a Goldilocks number around 100,000 jobs .
• 1:22
  If it is way higher , say over 150,000 , expect the Nasdaq100 , the QQQ , to take a hit as bond yields rise .
• 1:31
  Speaking of big moves , keep your eyes on the tech sector .
• 1:35
  It is what I call the Great Divergence .
• 1:37
  Amazon , ticker AMZN , had a fantastic July , soaring 15 percent thanks to cloud growth .
• 1:44
  But Apple and various chipmakers are feeling some AI fatigue .
• 1:48
  This week is a massive test for the AI bull case with Palantir and AMD reporting .
• 1:54
  Palantir , or PLTR , reports tomorrow , Monday , August 3rd .
• 1:59
  They are trading at a huge premium right now , and if they miss their revenue forecast of 1.81 billion dollars , we could see the stock slide toward that 100 dollar support level .
• 2:10
  Then on Tuesday , we have the historic first earnings report from SpaceX , ticker SPCX , since its 2026 IPO .
• 2:19
  Everyone is watching for Starlink profitability .
• 2:23
  If they do well , it could lift the whole aerospace sector , specifically the iShares US Aerospace and Defense ETF , known as ITA .
• 2:32
  Now , let’s talk about how to play this .
• 2:34
  First , look at defensive hedging with energy .
• 2:37
  With oil prices near 100 dollars due to conflicts in the Arabian Peninsula , the Energy Select Sector SPDR , or XLE , has been a leader .
• 2:47
  It outperformed last week and remains a great hedge against geopolitical risk .
• 2:53
  If you are worried about rates , keep an eye on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , the TLT .
• 3:00
  If Friday’s jobs report is weak , under 70,000 , the TLT could rally as people bet against a September rate hike .
• 3:08
  For the AI fans , I would take a waitandsee approach with Advanced Micro Devices , or AMD , which reports Tuesday .
• 3:17
  Chipmakers are facing margin pressure warnings lately .
• 3:21
  If you want broad tech exposure , the QQQ will likely stay between 480 and 500 until that jobs data drops .
• 3:30
  Finally , for my longterm friends , look at the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI .
• 3:37
  With the S&P 500 at 7,490 , VTI is a safer bet right now than the techheavy funds because it captures the rotation into industrials and energy .
• 3:50
  It is a solid core holding while we wait for the Fed to make up its mind .
• 3:54
  That is the outlook for the week ahead !
• 3:57
  I will be back in a few hours with more updates .
• 4:00
  Stay smart out there and happy trading !