Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Why does Trump want a weaker dollar?
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- 1:05Speaker 1: Chuck Zada and Mike Armstraw.
- 1:09Speaker 2: All right, it's Chuck, Mike and Tuckger with you here
- 1:12Speaker 2: on our to financial exchange and markets selling off today
- 1:17Speaker 2: after the big leap rally that took place from about
- 1:20Speaker 2: one fifteen to four pm yesterday. Obviously we had US
- 1:23Speaker 2: markets up anywhere from eight to twelve percent yesterday, so
- 1:27Speaker 2: that was nice. But here's the thing that I will say,
- 1:32Speaker 2: and I say this a lot. Look, just because volatility
- 1:34Speaker 2: is moving upwards doesn't mean it's not volatility and doesn't
- 1:38Speaker 2: mean that things are resolved.
- 1:40Speaker 3: The stuff that you like to see.
- 1:41Speaker 2: In order to be like feeling comfortable and confident about
- 1:44Speaker 2: markets is not a ten percent upward move. But days
- 1:48Speaker 2: where it's like, hey, the S and P move fifteen points,
- 1:52Speaker 2: Like the S and P moved three quarters of a percent,
- 1:55Speaker 2: the SMP moved half a percent, because that means that
- 1:57Speaker 2: investors are starting to feel more comfortable with how to
- 2:00Speaker 2: price things.
- 2:01Speaker 3: So today you've.
- 2:02Speaker 2: Got markets selling off a modest amount in the context
- 2:05Speaker 2: of you know, the last week or so. It's nothing huge,
- 2:08Speaker 2: but still like meaningful. You get the Dow off about
- 2:11Speaker 2: one thousand points two and a half percent, The S
- 2:14Speaker 2: and P's down one hundred and sixty points about three percent,
- 2:16Speaker 2: and the nasdack down six hundred points about three and
- 2:18Speaker 2: a half percent. So all three major US indices are
- 2:22Speaker 2: selling off a little bit after the exuberance of yesterday
- 2:25Speaker 2: afternoon war off bond market. Not a ton of movement there,
- 2:30Speaker 2: a little bit more stability, which is good. The tenure
- 2:32Speaker 2: Treasury is coming back in about six basis points to
- 2:35Speaker 2: four point three three nine percent. Shorter term rates coming
- 2:38Speaker 2: down a little bit further here. What this does mean
- 2:42Speaker 2: is that yesterday, Mike, I don't know if you saw,
- 2:44Speaker 2: but Mortgage News Daily, the afternoon average for the thirty
- 2:49Speaker 2: year national fixed rate mortgage came in six point ninety
- 2:52Speaker 2: five percent, So we were back up, you know, near seven.
- 2:55Speaker 2: The morning number was actually at seven just because of
- 2:58Speaker 2: how the bond market moved over the cour the day.
- 3:01Speaker 2: But uh, six nine five. Again, we're right in the
- 3:04Speaker 2: middle of the spring housing season.
- 3:06Speaker 4: There are gonna be no home sales prices, No, it's
- 3:10Speaker 4: it's not gonna be there.
- 3:11Speaker 3: It's gonna be some home sales.
- 3:12Speaker 4: But like you just think about that decision right now
- 3:15Speaker 4: to go and buy a home at these interest rates,
- 3:17Speaker 4: with this uncertainty, there's a shrinking number of people who
- 3:21Speaker 4: are going to be willing to do so.
- 3:23Speaker 2: And this is you know, yeah, right in the middle
- 3:26Speaker 2: of the spring home season. I mean you talk about
- 3:28Speaker 2: like the peak of it. It is April and May, right,
- 3:31Speaker 2: Like that is the volumes in April and May that
- 3:34Speaker 2: we see are like fifteen to twenty percent higher than
- 3:37Speaker 2: any other part of the year, and like compared to
- 3:40Speaker 2: the ends of the year, it's like one hundred percent higher.
- 3:43Speaker 2: Like you basically see, like it's February through September is
- 3:48Speaker 2: kind of a plateau with you know, this this peak
- 3:52Speaker 2: in this little mountain that springs up in April and May.
- 3:55Speaker 2: But it's like the home sales the next two months,
- 3:57Speaker 2: they're like fifteen to twenty percent higher per week than
- 4:00Speaker 2: any other weeks happening in the year. And so if
- 4:02Speaker 2: you can't make these sales now, then you get the
- 4:05Speaker 2: people who say, well, let's just wait till next year
- 4:07Speaker 2: because they don't want to move the kids in the
- 4:08Speaker 2: middle of the school year and stuff like that. And
- 4:11Speaker 2: so this is where you start worrying about, hey, what
- 4:14Speaker 2: kind of price cuts do you need to start seeing
- 4:16Speaker 2: how soon and how vast do they need to be
- 4:18Speaker 2: and we're already in a situation where price cuts and
- 4:20Speaker 2: this is according to data from Mike Simonson from Alta's Research,
- 4:24Speaker 2: price cuts right now are higher than they've been at
- 4:26Speaker 2: any point in the last decade. Based on the percentage
- 4:30Speaker 2: that we're seeing, it's like thirty five point seven percent
- 4:32Speaker 2: of single family units have price cuts. Normal this time
- 4:36Speaker 2: of year is like twenty five to twenty seven.
- 4:39Speaker 4: Quick breaking news clarification from the White House, which genuinely
- 4:42Speaker 4: doesn't clarify much, but the Trump White House just clarified
- 4:46Speaker 4: that total China tariffs on Chinese goods important to the
- 4:50Speaker 4: United States are now one hundred and forty five percent.
- 4:54Speaker 3: Can I say something on that?
- 4:56Speaker 2: I mean I can, it's it's yeh.
- 4:57Speaker 4: Show yeah, it's no different between one twenty five.
- 5:00Speaker 3: Is that what you're gonna say?
- 5:01Speaker 2: It doesn't matter, Like there's a difference in terif rates,
- 5:05Speaker 2: like between ten and twenty percent or twenty and thirty.
- 5:08Speaker 2: Businesses make different decisions there as to how am I
- 5:10Speaker 2: going to handle this? If you raise tariffs from one
- 5:14Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five percent to one hundred and eighty,
- 5:17Speaker 2: there's no decision to be made. Those businesses already weren't
- 5:19Speaker 2: going to be importing those goods in most cases, right
- 5:22Speaker 2: Like it's it's it's just it's not really relevant to
- 5:26Speaker 2: you know, the decision making. So I think what you
- 5:29Speaker 2: can maybe say just in the context of negotiations, I think,
- 5:36Speaker 2: if you want to look at it from that perspective,
- 5:38Speaker 2: it's the White House giving itself more room to negotiate
- 5:41Speaker 2: those down while still maintaining the rates they want to.
- 5:44Speaker 2: So maybe they eventually want to target a rate of
- 5:46Speaker 2: you know, seventy percent, and now they're negotiating from one
- 5:49Speaker 2: forty five to seventy instead of from one twenty five.
- 5:52Speaker 2: But the effective difference in how businesses will respond, it's
- 5:57Speaker 2: it's six and one half dozen of another. Yep, what
- 6:00Speaker 2: else are we seeing oil prices? Remember oil spiked yesterday
- 6:03Speaker 2: like ten percent intra day, which again just wild stuff
- 6:07Speaker 2: that you don't see very often.
- 6:09Speaker 3: It's back down five percent today.
- 6:11Speaker 2: Why if you think there's going to be less economic
- 6:14Speaker 2: activity and the imposition of tariff still points towards less
- 6:17Speaker 2: economic activity, not gonna need as much oil, and as such,
- 6:22Speaker 2: oil prices pull back. So oil down three thirteen a
- 6:24Speaker 2: barrel to fifty nine to twenty two, the triple A
- 6:27Speaker 2: national average gas price is continuing to slide as it's
- 6:29Speaker 2: now picking this up. Now that we're through that switch
- 6:32Speaker 2: over to the summer blends, you've got the triple A
- 6:35Speaker 2: national average gas price at three twenty two and two
- 6:38Speaker 2: tenths of ascent down another one point three cents overnight,
- 6:41Speaker 2: So you got some good movement downward on gas prices,
- 6:45Speaker 2: gold picking up. Uh. You know, here's what happens in
- 6:50Speaker 2: panic sell offs. Everything gets sold because you have big
- 6:54Speaker 2: investment books that are basically trying to de risk and deleverage,
- 6:58Speaker 2: and so even the stuff that's up that held up well,
- 7:00Speaker 2: like gold did for much of the last week or two,
- 7:03Speaker 2: eventually get sold because it's hey, now we want to
- 7:06Speaker 2: buy more equities. Sell the gold in order to buy
- 7:08Speaker 2: the equities.
- 7:09Speaker 4: Or what can also happen during this time if you're
- 7:11Speaker 4: if you were a big institution, or if you're trading
- 7:13Speaker 4: on margin, and all of a sudden you get to
- 7:15Speaker 4: a point where you are forced to sell because of
- 7:18Speaker 4: the level of destruction and equity markets. You will oftentimes
- 7:21Speaker 4: see these safe haven type assets that have actually done
- 7:24Speaker 4: quite well get sold at that point because it's okay,
- 7:26Speaker 4: I'm looking around at my portfolio. What's the least bad
- 7:29Speaker 4: thing to sell. Yes, and for a lot of people,
- 7:31Speaker 4: that was gold over the course of the last week. Right, So,
- 7:33Speaker 4: like during the actual panic, safe havens don't necessarily hold
- 7:36Speaker 4: up well, it's kind of all of the periods surrounding
- 7:38Speaker 4: that where you typically would expect them to. And so
- 7:41Speaker 4: gold today rallying ninety six dollars. Now it's up three
- 7:44Speaker 4: point one percent to thirty one seventy five, closing back
- 7:47Speaker 4: in on a new all time high. Still not there,
- 7:51Speaker 4: I believe we got up to let's see, we got
- 7:55Speaker 4: to thirty two oh one and sixty cents, so we're
- 7:57Speaker 4: still about one percent off of that, maybe a litle
- 8:00Speaker 4: bit less than one percent. But gold up over three
- 8:03Speaker 4: percent today as it surges forward here. So you've got markets,
- 8:07Speaker 4: you know, still making some pretty significant moves. I mean,
- 8:11Speaker 4: another one that's relevant, the dollars off one point seven
- 8:15Speaker 4: percent today. Like to put this in perspective, like this
- 8:18Speaker 4: doesn't happen a normal daily move for the dollar index,
- 8:23Speaker 4: if like, if you're just looking at this in the
- 8:25Speaker 4: context I'm looking at like the last.
- 8:27Speaker 2: Year, a normal daily move for the dollar index quarter percent,
- 8:33Speaker 2: half a percent. You know, things like that like that,
- 8:35Speaker 2: that's kind of the where you typically see the moves
- 8:39Speaker 2: that we saw at the beginning of March when the
- 8:41Speaker 2: US mech when the Mexico and Canada tariffs were announced,
- 8:45Speaker 2: those were similar to this. But again, when you when
- 8:49Speaker 2: you're seeing like a one point seven percent move in
- 8:51Speaker 2: a currency on a daily basis, that's not indicative of
- 8:55Speaker 2: a market that is showing you any stability there. Like
- 8:58Speaker 2: that is a huge move from a currency perspective, And
- 9:02Speaker 2: quite honestly, this is something that I also do think
- 9:04Speaker 2: is important. The Trump administration is talked quite a bit
- 9:09Speaker 2: about how there may be situations where they want a
- 9:12Speaker 2: week er dollar, and I think this is something that
- 9:16Speaker 2: we talked about after the election where we said, hey,
- 9:20Speaker 2: in Trump's first term, if you look at you know,
- 9:23Speaker 2: twenty seventeen is first year in office, the dollar weekened
- 9:26Speaker 2: about eight nine percent over the course of the year.
- 9:29Speaker 2: That wasn't an accident. And I think you could be
- 9:31Speaker 2: seeing something similar here in terms of, you know, dollar
- 9:34Speaker 2: weakness becoming a theme that is encouraged by the Trump administration.
- 9:40Speaker 2: Why would the Trump administration want to encourage dollar weakness
- 9:42Speaker 2: Two things, in my opinion. The first, it helps companies
- 9:47Speaker 2: that make stuff in the US to be able to
- 9:48Speaker 2: export more efficiently, not more efficiently, but more effectively, more competitively,
- 9:53Speaker 2: that's the word. The reason being, Hey, if other currencies
- 9:56Speaker 2: strengthen relative to the dollar, it's easier to buy US goods.
- 10:00Speaker 2: The second piece is if you are a US company
- 10:03Speaker 2: that is selling stuff overseas, likewise, your foreign earnings will
- 10:08Speaker 2: be worth more dollars. It helps out from an earnings perspective.
- 10:11Speaker 2: You have a currency tailwind instead of a headwind. There.
- 10:15Speaker 2: The counter to it is that US purchasing power then
- 10:20Speaker 2: goes down for things that are imported, making them more expensive.
- 10:24Speaker 2: And any kind of travel or anything that you're doing,
- 10:26Speaker 2: you know, overseas, becomes more expensive as well. Not saying
- 10:31Speaker 2: this is good, bad, or ugly, just saying this is
- 10:33Speaker 2: the lay of the land, and this is something I
- 10:35Speaker 2: think we need to be aware of because I think
- 10:37Speaker 2: currency is a big part of what the Trump administration
- 10:40Speaker 2: is trying to work with during this term. Here, let's
- 10:45Speaker 2: take a quick break. When we come back, we'll do
- 10:47Speaker 2: a little bit of trivia.
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- 12:32Speaker 2: Mike, before we talk about how CEOs are still, you know,
- 12:36Speaker 2: nervous about potential recession, I want to do a quick
- 12:40Speaker 2: follow up on CPI. Uh. Every time we get CPI,
- 12:44Speaker 2: the Cleveland Fed produces two different metrics. One is called
- 12:47Speaker 2: median CPI and one is called trimmed mean. And basically
- 12:51Speaker 2: what these do is the median says, look, I don't
- 12:54Speaker 2: want to, you know, pay attention to any outliers. If
- 12:56Speaker 2: there are one hundred and one things in this series,
- 13:00Speaker 2: give me the fifty first one. Tell me what's right
- 13:02Speaker 2: in the middle and what has an equal number above
- 13:04Speaker 2: or below. So median CPI just tells you, like, what's
- 13:08Speaker 2: like the central number in CPI because obviously the weightings
- 13:12Speaker 2: and this and that can can move things. So median CPI,
- 13:15Speaker 2: even though headline came in at negative point one and
- 13:18Speaker 2: core at point one. Median was point three, which is
- 13:22Speaker 2: the same as it's been for the last six months now,
- 13:26Speaker 2: so that paints a picture that is different from the
- 13:30Speaker 2: initial release. They also do what's called a trimmed mean,
- 13:33Speaker 2: where what they do is they basically take like the
- 13:36Speaker 2: eight percent on the high end and low end and
- 13:39Speaker 2: kick them out, and they're like, look at like the
- 13:40Speaker 2: stuff that's in the middle, because we want to get
- 13:42Speaker 2: rid of those outliers.
- 13:43Speaker 3: Again.
- 13:43Speaker 2: We don't want to look at, you know, something that
- 13:45Speaker 2: might have moved ten percent in a month, because that's
- 13:47Speaker 2: not necessarily representative of what it's gonna do in the
- 13:50Speaker 2: long run, Like there's no price that falls ten percent
- 13:52Speaker 2: every month, is kind of the premise of it. And
- 13:55Speaker 2: the trimmed mean one came in at point two percent,
- 13:57Speaker 2: which is better than it's been in the last six months.
- 13:59Speaker 2: It's been fluctuating between point three or point four, but
- 14:02Speaker 2: still okay, like good and where you want to be,
- 14:06Speaker 2: but not as low as we saw. So the reason
- 14:09Speaker 2: I bring this up. Ten year treasury at one point
- 14:11Speaker 2: today was down to four point to six percent. It
- 14:16Speaker 2: subsequently has sold off and reversed about half of that
- 14:19Speaker 2: gain and now is at four point three to three
- 14:22Speaker 2: and this came right after the Cleveland Fed published this
- 14:25Speaker 2: about twenty minutes ago. So just trying to give some
- 14:27Speaker 2: context to what we're seeing out there in the bond market.
- 14:33Speaker 2: The more you know Michael's talk about this piece from Bloomberg,
- 14:35Speaker 2: it's titled CEO's brace for recession even after tariff for
- 14:38Speaker 2: pre boost stocks.
- 14:40Speaker 3: And this is the.
- 14:42Speaker 2: Thing that I think we were gonna come back to
- 14:44Speaker 2: quite a bit, which is, hey, even after the punting
- 14:50Speaker 2: for ninety days on the higher reciprocal tariff rates, you
- 14:54Speaker 2: still have a tariff environment today that is very different
- 14:57Speaker 2: from the beginning of the year, and companies are going
- 15:00Speaker 2: to be cautious about how they approach it, especially given Hey,
- 15:04Speaker 2: if you're not sure how long any given tariff is
- 15:06Speaker 2: going to be in effect, it makes you really cautious
- 15:10Speaker 2: about leveraging up and deploying capital because you don't want
- 15:13Speaker 2: to commit to a move if a week or two
- 15:16Speaker 2: later you might be staring down a different tariff picture
- 15:19Speaker 2: than you were originally looking at.
- 15:21Speaker 3: Yeah, really impossible to know.
- 15:22Speaker 4: Again, I keep going back to Apple on this on
- 15:25Speaker 4: this story here right, they have manufacturing facilities.
- 15:29Speaker 3: Mainly in China.
- 15:31Speaker 4: I don't know what percentage of Apple physical products come
- 15:33Speaker 4: from China, but it's a large portion. They've got manufacturing
- 15:36Speaker 4: facilities in India. They have is it the iPad? They
- 15:40Speaker 4: manufacture in Texas? They have something in Texas as well.
- 15:44Speaker 4: I don't recall exactly what. I can find it somewhere.
- 15:47Speaker 4: But in any case, if you are sitting there now,
- 15:51Speaker 4: as Apple CEO, first and foremost, what you want is
- 15:54Speaker 4: to get a waiver of your products being subject to
- 15:58Speaker 4: tariffs in China.
- 15:59Speaker 3: That's best case.
- 16:00Speaker 2: Okay, I got the information for you. If you'd like, yeah,
- 16:02Speaker 2: hit me so China. Eighty percent of Apple's production capacity
- 16:08Speaker 2: is still in China, ninety percent of iPhones there and
- 16:12Speaker 2: fifty five percent of Apple's mac products and eighty percent
- 16:16Speaker 2: of iPads. This is according to estimates from Evercore ISI India.
- 16:21Speaker 2: Apple's targeting to make around twenty five percent of iPhones
- 16:24Speaker 2: globally in India, and it may be up to fifteen
- 16:28Speaker 2: to twenty percent by the end of this year. That's
- 16:30Speaker 2: according to a Bernstein estimate. Vietnam. About twenty percent of
- 16:34Speaker 2: iPad production and ninety percent of Apple's wearable product assembly
- 16:38Speaker 2: like Apple Watch, takes place in Vietnam, Malaysia they are
- 16:43Speaker 2: trying to build MAX there, and Thailand they're starting to
- 16:46Speaker 2: try to build MAX there as well. But it's predominantly
- 16:51Speaker 2: again like China is the vast majority, with India and
- 16:54Speaker 2: Vietnam kind of distant second and third in Malaysia eight
- 16:57Speaker 2: and even more distant fourth place.
- 17:00Speaker 4: And you know, taking a look at what we knew
- 17:02Speaker 4: yesterday at this time, it was that products from India
- 17:05Speaker 4: faced a twenty seven percent tariff, products from Vietnam faced
- 17:08Speaker 4: a forty six percent tariff. Both of those two countries
- 17:10Speaker 4: are now facing a ten percent tariff instead, at least
- 17:14Speaker 4: for the next ninety days.
- 17:16Speaker 3: What do I do.
- 17:17Speaker 4: Do I go pour a whole bunch of investment into
- 17:19Speaker 4: India and assume that hey, because they had the lowest
- 17:22Speaker 4: rate on the list, they will continue to or do
- 17:25Speaker 4: I wait for clarity. If I'm Tim Cook, I'm waiting.
- 17:29Speaker 4: I'm not doing. I'm not throwing ten billion dollars into
- 17:33Speaker 4: a factory in India only to find out that tariffs
- 17:35Speaker 4: are going to bump up and triple in that country
- 17:39Speaker 4: in ninety days.
- 17:40Speaker 2: So a couple and this gets it the question of Okay,
- 17:43Speaker 2: what's the real reason for the implementation of tariffs. If,
- 17:48Speaker 2: like I believe it's really hey, we want to focus
- 17:52Speaker 2: on China and the rest of this was was kind
- 17:54Speaker 2: of noise and is probably not going to actually make
- 17:57Speaker 2: it into effect, then you can feel confident starting to
- 18:01Speaker 2: make those decisions.
- 18:02Speaker 3: Right.
- 18:03Speaker 2: But the entire roll out last week from the White
- 18:07Speaker 2: House was, Hey, this is about the trade deficit, Like
- 18:11Speaker 2: we did the math. Not we did the math, but
- 18:13Speaker 2: a lot of people did the math on how the
- 18:14Speaker 2: different terror formulas were calculated, and it boiled down to
- 18:17Speaker 2: trade deficit. So let's say that I'm Tim Cook and
- 18:22Speaker 2: I say, you know what, I believe it's the former.
- 18:24Speaker 2: I think it's about China, and so I want to
- 18:26Speaker 2: move production out of China. A couple things I got
- 18:29Speaker 2: to navigate then. The first is, hey, the Chinese government,
- 18:32Speaker 2: when they start seeing me making less stuff there, they're
- 18:35Speaker 2: probably gonna be a little less friendly to me. So like,
- 18:37Speaker 2: do I then have to like really hurry to get
- 18:39Speaker 2: stuff out of China?
- 18:40Speaker 4: Right?
- 18:41Speaker 2: One thing to worry about. The other piece is what
- 18:43Speaker 2: if I'm wrong and I'm saying I is Tim Cook
- 18:46Speaker 2: and me I guess Tim Cook and I are basically
- 18:49Speaker 2: the same person.
- 18:50Speaker 3: Yeah, everybody says that pretty much.
- 18:54Speaker 2: Let's say that they decide we're gonna move you know,
- 18:56Speaker 2: the bulk of this production to India, which, by the way,
- 18:58Speaker 2: is not easy. If you talk to people about like
- 19:01Speaker 2: ramping up production in India, it's a lot harder than
- 19:03Speaker 2: China because there's this whole regional you know, governance network.
- 19:06Speaker 2: It's not as streamlined as China like that. There's a
- 19:08Speaker 2: reason why companies went to China first. But let's say
- 19:11Speaker 2: that you move it to India and now you're exporting
- 19:14Speaker 2: a ton of stuff from India to the US, and
- 19:16Speaker 2: now India's trade deficit with the US rises. So the
- 19:19Speaker 2: Trump administration say, hey, India, your trade deficits bigger. Now
- 19:23Speaker 2: we're gonna tear a few impossible to know, don't know,
- 19:28Speaker 2: to take a quick break when we come back. We
- 19:30Speaker 2: got the trivia answer after this.
- 19:41Speaker 6: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day,
- 19:45Speaker 6: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
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- 20:05Speaker 5: Trivia question today was which US city was the Titanic
- 20:10Speaker 5: sailing to when it left on this day back in
- 20:12Speaker 5: nineteen twelve, That would be New York City. Daniel for Plastao,
- 20:18Speaker 5: New Hampshire is our winner today, taking home a brand
- 20:20Speaker 5: new Financial Exchange Show to you. Sure, congrats to Daniel.
- 20:24Speaker 5: We played trivia every day here on the Financial Exchange
- 20:28Speaker 5: c Complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show dot com.
- 20:32Speaker 2: Tucker, you know what else happened? Basically as the Titanic
- 20:38Speaker 2: was sinking.
- 20:39Speaker 3: No, somebody was left on a door that definitely could
- 20:42Speaker 3: have fit two people.
- 20:42Speaker 2: Yeah, true, idiot, True, But Fenway Park opened five days
- 20:48Speaker 2: after the sinking, but basically got no press attention because
- 20:52Speaker 2: everyone was obviously you know, rightly so paying more attention
- 20:55Speaker 2: to the sinking of the Titanic.
- 20:57Speaker 5: I didn't realize it was nineteen twelve.
- 20:59Speaker 2: Yep, nineteen twelve, America's most beloved ballpark.
- 21:02Speaker 3: There you have it.
- 21:03Speaker 2: The more, you know, I do want to do a
- 21:05Speaker 2: quick look at markets just as we're kind of halfway
- 21:08Speaker 2: through the hour here, because gotta be honest, little Puky today, Yeah,
- 21:15Speaker 2: it's gotten worse.
- 21:16Speaker 3: Starting down like three two and a half three.
- 21:19Speaker 2: Right, started down like two and a quarter percent, and
- 21:21Speaker 2: now you got the SMP down about four the Nasdaq
- 21:23Speaker 2: off four and a half percent, and the Vicks back
- 21:25Speaker 2: above forty. This isn't just going away, I guess is
- 21:30Speaker 2: what I'm I'm gonna say here. It's gonna take some
- 21:32Speaker 2: time to sort through what this looks like. So again,
- 21:36Speaker 2: I'm we just gotta let things play out a little bit.
- 21:40Speaker 2: But this is just because he had a you know,
- 21:44Speaker 2: a very positive afternoon in markets doesn't mean that everything
- 21:48Speaker 2: is just fine from here. There's still some dodgy stuff
- 21:51Speaker 2: that we need to sort through, and still some huge
- 21:54Speaker 2: like let's let's get back to this, also still some
- 21:57Speaker 2: huge changes in global trade that could be happening as
- 22:00Speaker 2: a result of the still imposed tariffs.
- 22:01Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm trying to think through, like what are the
- 22:03Speaker 4: lessons learned from the last few days and conclusions that
- 22:06Speaker 4: we have here for the every man. I mean, one, clearly,
- 22:10Speaker 4: we're not just we didn't flip the page on tariffs
- 22:15Speaker 4: and market volatility, and today is evidence of that. We
- 22:18Speaker 4: did remove, at least temporarily, some of what was being
- 22:22Speaker 4: described as the worst case scenarios. Right there were legitimate
- 22:25Speaker 4: sources talking about shortages on shelves, stocks, sinking further, worst
- 22:31Speaker 4: recession that's been seen since the Great Depression. Those were
- 22:34Speaker 4: legitimate conversations that were being had prior to the suspension
- 22:38Speaker 4: of these tariffs yesterday. What still exists is a massive
- 22:44Speaker 4: shift in the overall circumstances surrounding global trade. But I
- 22:49Speaker 4: think the key lesson that I hope most people listening
- 22:53Speaker 4: to this program have already learned at this point, but
- 22:56Speaker 4: it's that you cannot respond to this on a day today.
- 23:00Speaker 4: And we were saying that really since Thursday of last week,
- 23:03Speaker 4: when all of the volatility began. Is look, if you
- 23:05Speaker 4: try and respond to the headlines every day, then you
- 23:07Speaker 4: are going to get burnt, and more importantly, you might
- 23:10Speaker 4: lose your mind out of the nerves that you're going
- 23:13Speaker 4: to be feeling.
- 23:13Speaker 3: Because of it.
- 23:14Speaker 4: But I'm sure there were plenty of people across the
- 23:17Speaker 4: country who on Tuesday or even Wednesday morning said, I'm
- 23:23Speaker 4: too old, I'm too scared, I'm too nervous, I can't
- 23:26Speaker 4: manage this anymore, and I can't make it up because
- 23:29Speaker 4: I don't have enough time, so sell everything. At least
- 23:31Speaker 4: I know where I'm locking in. And then what happened,
- 23:34Speaker 4: You know, twenty minutes later is Oh yeah, tariff suspended
- 23:37Speaker 4: and markets moved higher by what did we say, the
- 23:42Speaker 4: eighth largest move in a single dass history.
- 23:45Speaker 2: Five hundred gain in history if we look at the
- 23:48Speaker 2: Nasdaq largest moves in on a daily basis, So the
- 23:54Speaker 2: Nasdaq it was the second largest percentage gain on a
- 23:58Speaker 2: daily basis. Here's one of the thing that I want
- 24:00Speaker 2: to say just about that, and again we're dealing with
- 24:05Speaker 2: really small sample sizes when we get into this. The
- 24:07Speaker 2: the only day in the Nasdaq's history that had a
- 24:10Speaker 2: larger percentage move again not points because point like yep
- 24:15Speaker 2: percentage move was the third of January in two thousand
- 24:21Speaker 2: and one. NASDAK went fourteen percent right before way down
- 24:26Speaker 2: another forty or something like that. Uh No, the Nasdaq
- 24:29Speaker 2: fell like sixty five percent from there. Yeah, so big
- 24:32Speaker 2: days are not necessarily all clear? Is you want to
- 24:34Speaker 2: know the other ones surrounding this, Michael, I do. I'm
- 24:37Speaker 2: gonna tell you even if you don't want these the
- 24:40Speaker 2: other biggest days in the Nasdaq's history October thirteenth, two
- 24:45Speaker 2: thousand and eight. NASDAK didn't bot him for five months
- 24:48Speaker 2: after that, uh, December fifth, two thousand Again like at
- 24:55Speaker 2: this point, the Nasdaq still had another I think it
- 24:57Speaker 2: was like seventy percent to go two thousand and eight
- 25:01Speaker 2: October twenty. I think he's kind of all cluster. The
- 25:04Speaker 2: only one in the top eight that had a positive result.
- 25:10Speaker 2: A year later, and again teeny tiny sample size was
- 25:14Speaker 2: twenty twenty March thirteenth, NAZDAK was up nine percent and change.
- 25:19Speaker 2: But remember, we pumped two point two trillion dollars into
- 25:22Speaker 2: the economy, bought a whole like the Fed was gonna
- 25:23Speaker 2: buy all the bonds if needed, and then we pump
- 25:25Speaker 2: more money into the economy. So it's not to say
- 25:29Speaker 2: that this is, you know, guaranteed to get worse from here,
- 25:32Speaker 2: because like no, I have no idea what the market's
- 25:35Speaker 2: gonna do tomorrow, the next week, the next month, the
- 25:37Speaker 2: next year. By the way, nobody else does either, no clue,
- 25:40Speaker 2: absolutely no little secret out there like this. There's a
- 25:45Speaker 2: viable path to like almost anything. But what I am
- 25:49Speaker 2: telling you is that if you think of daylight yesterday
- 25:52Speaker 2: signals the all clear, and that it's only gonna be
- 25:54Speaker 2: up from here, the historical precedent is not on your side.
- 25:58Speaker 4: Agreed, folks, If you are listening there and the last
- 26:01Speaker 4: week has spooked you in some way, shape or form.
- 26:03Speaker 4: If you add a difficult time removing the emotions from
- 26:06Speaker 4: the decision making process. I'm not going to tell you
- 26:09Speaker 4: not to have emotions. Where all human beings, we've all
- 26:10Speaker 4: been reacting to the day to day moves in the news.
- 26:15Speaker 4: But if you are sitting there with your investment portfolio
- 26:17Speaker 4: and uncertain of, hey, what do I do next to
- 26:21Speaker 4: account for this massive change that is sweeping the globe
- 26:24Speaker 4: in terms of how trade gets approached by the United States,
- 26:28Speaker 4: and you're wondering how it might affect you, give us
- 26:32Speaker 4: a call at the Armstrong Advisory Group. We would love
- 26:34Speaker 4: to chat review how you're allocated, review your overall financial strategy,
- 26:39Speaker 4: and see if there are likely changes that you should
- 26:41Speaker 4: be making today even with this continued volatility or not.
- 26:46Speaker 4: The phone number for the Armstrong Advisor Group is eight
- 26:48Speaker 4: hundred three nine three four zero zero one. Let us
- 26:52Speaker 4: guide you through that process of that second opinion so
- 26:55Speaker 4: that you can feel more comfortable with your overall strategy.
- 26:58Speaker 4: Then number, once again for the Armstrong Advisory Group is
- 27:01Speaker 4: eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
- 27:04Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong advisory group a
- 27:07Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
- 27:09Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
- 27:13Speaker 1: your own financial, tax and to state planning advisors before
- 27:15Speaker 1: making any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer
- 27:18Speaker 1: investment advisory services.
- 27:20Speaker 2: I want to talk about Amazon. Andy Jasse put out
- 27:23Speaker 2: his annual letter. This is something that Jeff Bezos used
- 27:26Speaker 2: to do when he was running the company. And first, Andy,
- 27:29Speaker 2: I gotta tell you it's a little long, Like CNBC
- 27:33Speaker 2: has my full text.
- 27:35Speaker 3: Up a little bit and it's it's.
- 27:39Speaker 2: Just I'm copying it right now into Microsoft Word just
- 27:43Speaker 2: to see how many words it is.
- 27:45Speaker 3: Okay, here we go.
- 27:46Speaker 2: So Jeff Bezos, it used to be like again, like
- 27:49Speaker 2: reasonable to read. I found a website once that had
- 27:51Speaker 2: all of them and like you could actually like read
- 27:53Speaker 2: through them, and it was it was fine. This one
- 27:56Speaker 2: from Andy is five fifty words.
- 27:58Speaker 4: So yeah, that directly contry next to the old Jeff
- 28:01Speaker 4: Bezos mantra and rule for meetings. Do you guys remember
- 28:04Speaker 4: his rule for meetings late Amazon.
- 28:06Speaker 2: Yeah, it was like what like less than ten minutes,
- 28:08Speaker 2: ten people in one pizza or something like that.
- 28:10Speaker 4: Yeah, the one that I remember was if you can't
- 28:13Speaker 4: if you can't feed the whole meeting with one pizza,
- 28:15Speaker 4: then don't have the meeting.
- 28:17Speaker 2: Yeah, this this five thousand words too, make it one
- 28:21Speaker 2: hundred words. Okay, you know.
- 28:23Speaker 3: But anyways, so how did a I summarize it for you? Chuck? Oh,
- 28:28Speaker 3: good question. Michael hold On, please stand by.
- 28:33Speaker 2: So speaking of AI, because one of the things that
- 28:35Speaker 2: was interesting in here is this is that Jesse was
- 28:40Speaker 2: saying when talking about AI development, He's like, look, companies
- 28:44Speaker 2: that are not starting to figure out how to use AI,
- 28:51Speaker 2: they are going to fall behind very quickly. He said,
- 28:53Speaker 2: It's not gonna be in one or two years, but
- 28:55Speaker 2: it's going to be shorter than the next ten. So base, Hey,
- 29:00Speaker 2: if you are a company that's operating right now, you
- 29:03Speaker 2: need to figure out how to make this work in
- 29:08Speaker 2: the next three to five years. Here's how it summarizes it.
- 29:11Speaker 2: I'm not going to go through the financial highlights. Key
- 29:13Speaker 2: business developments, retail, expanded selection, lowered priced and improved delivery,
- 29:17Speaker 2: speed aws, launch, new AI and infrastructure services, trainium to Amazon, Nova,
- 29:22Speaker 2: Sage Maker, and Bedrock, those sound Fun, Prime video, delivered
- 29:26Speaker 2: hit shows, added Apple TV Plus and secured major sports
- 29:28Speaker 2: rights devices, release new kindle models, achieving best quarterly sales
- 29:32Speaker 2: in a decade. Pharmacy expanded same day shipping and price transparency.
- 29:36Speaker 2: Cultural philosophy, We thrive by asking why and why not
- 29:39Speaker 2: in challenging norms. Leadership principles like our write a lot,
- 29:43Speaker 2: learn and be curious, have backbone, disagree and commit working
- 29:47Speaker 2: norms supporting innovation, narrative memos over PowerPoint, working backwards documents,
- 29:51Speaker 2: in person collaboration, tolerance for messy meetings, startup like operations.
- 29:56Speaker 2: AI in future vision, Amazon C'SAI is transformative, driving deep
- 29:59Speaker 2: investment and an infrastructure. Alexa plus aims to be the
- 30:02Speaker 2: first truly capable personal assistant. Project Cooper targets global broadband access.
- 30:07Speaker 2: That is, if you're not familiar with it. It is
- 30:10Speaker 2: their plan for a space based Internet, similar to Starlink.
- 30:16Speaker 2: Cooper is an asteroid belt in the Solar System, so
- 30:19Speaker 2: that's where the name comes from for any of you
- 30:21Speaker 2: astronomy nerds out there. Delivery speed remains a priority. Amazon
- 30:26Speaker 2: views AI as a once in a generation opportunity, and
- 30:30Speaker 2: he reflects on his twenty eight year journey at Amazon,
- 30:32Speaker 2: emphasizing passion for the company's mission innovation and culture. So
- 30:36Speaker 2: what I will say, A I just took five thousand
- 30:38Speaker 2: words and gave me a nice little summary that I
- 30:40Speaker 2: could read to you all in about a minute maybe two.
- 30:43Speaker 3: That is kind of cool, impressive, kind of cool. It's
- 30:46Speaker 3: not bad. I will also say.
- 30:49Speaker 4: Amazon is trying to be too much to too many people.
- 30:53Speaker 4: I don't know how anyone possibly can effectively manage. And
- 30:58Speaker 4: I agreed it has been working for them tremendously well.
- 31:01Speaker 4: Now for the better part of I'm trying to think
- 31:06Speaker 4: when they became everyone everything to everyone a better part
- 31:09Speaker 4: of a decade and a half. I just don't know
- 31:11Speaker 4: how much longer it can continue to say that, yeah,
- 31:13Speaker 4: we are going to be both a drug delivery company
- 31:16Speaker 4: and a streaming platform and everything else that we do,
- 31:20Speaker 4: and do it all successfully. So facts in recent history
- 31:25Speaker 4: would have proven me wrong. But nonetheless it just shocks me.
- 31:31Speaker 2: So I think that. So there's there's a couple different
- 31:35Speaker 2: ways to look at this. The first is, hey, they're
- 31:38Speaker 2: doing too much, they're spreading themselves too thin. They're not
- 31:40Speaker 2: going to figure it out. The other is there are
- 31:45Speaker 2: companies that do operate in this way and they do
- 31:48Speaker 2: pretty well. Again, assuming that they can actually like execute
- 31:52Speaker 2: Berkshire halfway. Great example of it, probably the exception that
- 31:55Speaker 2: proves the rule, because there's only one Warren Buffett, right,
- 31:57Speaker 2: so let's toss them out. But I want to take
- 31:59Speaker 2: y'all over across the pond to uh South Korea and
- 32:03Speaker 2: South Korea. The dominant form of large company is something
- 32:07Speaker 2: called a kibaal uh c h A E b O
- 32:10Speaker 2: L is how it's spelled. Companies like Hyundai and LG
- 32:16Speaker 2: fall into these this category. And these companies are these
- 32:20Speaker 2: like hugely diversified things where like even if you look
- 32:23Speaker 2: at Hyundai, they make like cars and cranes and boats,
- 32:28Speaker 2: like they make everything that's like heavy. It's not just
- 32:30Speaker 2: one thing, yep. And you could argue, oh, like they've
- 32:33Speaker 2: you know, they've spread themselves too thin, but it's it's.
- 32:35Speaker 3: Worked really well.
- 32:37Speaker 2: So I think that you can find some examples, not
- 32:40Speaker 2: so much in the United States but overseas where you
- 32:43Speaker 2: can have these hugely diversified conglomerates that actually can operate
- 32:47Speaker 2: in this fashion. But again it's it's not the dominant form.
- 32:50Speaker 2: And even there you can make a case, Okay, it's
- 32:52Speaker 2: something cultural in how this has developed, not something unique
- 32:55Speaker 2: to the company agreed. I don't know, just just ideas
- 33:00Speaker 2: out there. Just take a quick break. When we come back,
- 33:02Speaker 2: we'll do a little bit of stack roulette.
- 33:04Speaker 1: The global trade war is in full swing. How long
- 33:07Speaker 1: will it last? Is anyone's gus? Keep it here for
- 33:09Speaker 1: the most up to date information plus breaking news every
- 33:13Speaker 1: day right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Find
- 33:17Speaker 1: daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange on
- 33:20Speaker 1: our YouTube page. Like us on YouTube and get caught
- 33:23Speaker 1: up on anything and everything you might have missed. This
- 33:27Speaker 1: is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 33:31Speaker 5: This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
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- 34:02Speaker 4: Mike, what do you got for me for stock Rula
- 34:04Speaker 4: continued conversation about Amazon being the everything to everyone company.
- 34:08Speaker 3: In Europe, they.
- 34:09Speaker 4: Tested out turning their drivers into first responders. What they
- 34:13Speaker 4: did there was they had about one hundred of their
- 34:15Speaker 4: drivers get trained by first responders across Europe to basically
- 34:20Speaker 4: operate to fibrillators. And the idea was, hey, these drivers
- 34:24Speaker 4: are moving all across the city neighborhoods at any given
- 34:28Speaker 4: point in time, can they get there faster than an ambulance.
- 34:31Speaker 4: They didn't really disclose whether or not they were able to,
- 34:35Speaker 4: and they're quote studying the results of the test and
- 34:39Speaker 4: seeing how it worked there. May not work in the
- 34:42Speaker 4: United States, given our litigious society around medical treatment and
- 34:47Speaker 4: things like that, probably why they were testing it out
- 34:49Speaker 4: in Europe where there's a bunch of protections for people
- 34:51Speaker 4: trying to provide aid.
- 34:53Speaker 3: But again, interesting idea.
- 34:55Speaker 4: I do see how it can make sense if they
- 34:58Speaker 4: can make this into a business, or even if they
- 35:00Speaker 4: don't make it into a business, just buying good will
- 35:02Speaker 4: in Europe to make sure they don't get broken up
- 35:04Speaker 4: and text to all hell. But this is just continued
- 35:10Speaker 4: story of Amazon becoming everyone everything to everyone. It also
- 35:14Speaker 4: did remind me of the Seinfeld finale taking place in Leatham, Massachusetts,
- 35:18Speaker 4: with the cast being charged with the Good Samaritan Law,
- 35:20Speaker 4: which which I don't know, just kind of brought that
- 35:23Speaker 4: to mind.
- 35:24Speaker 3: I was.
- 35:24Speaker 2: I was really hoping that this wasn't just hey, we're gonna,
- 35:28Speaker 2: you know, provide you, try to provide you life saving service,
- 35:31Speaker 2: but also yeah, we're gonna have space in our delivery
- 35:34Speaker 2: vans to be able to carry you.
- 35:36Speaker 4: Sit on these boxes while you get your gunshot wound treated.
- 35:41Speaker 2: I wasn't gonna escalate it to that.
- 35:42Speaker 3: I was, you know, like, why is there blood all
- 35:46Speaker 3: of my new iPhone?
- 35:47Speaker 5: Just move those diapers to the side, don't worry about it.
- 35:50Speaker 2: Yeah, try try not to kick too much.
- 35:52Speaker 1: Fit them in there.
- 35:53Speaker 2: You know, the breakables are down at that end, so
- 35:55Speaker 2: watch your feet a little bit.
- 35:57Speaker 5: Move that box of trail mix out of the way.
- 35:59Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 36:01Speaker 4: Boy, So not a terrible idea. Not not the transportation
- 36:05Speaker 4: to hospitals. But you know, the defibrillators those are pretty
- 36:08Speaker 4: much uh easy to You don't really need any expertise
- 36:12Speaker 4: to use the emergency defibrillator.
- 36:14Speaker 2: So I know, I'm generally like anti drone, but like,
- 36:18Speaker 2: if you really know if you really needed to get
- 36:20Speaker 2: people to hospitals quickly, isn't drones the answer?
- 36:24Speaker 3: Oh god, yeah, I don't know, because what could go wrong?
- 36:29Speaker 2: Well, look, you can always say what can go wrong,
- 36:32Speaker 2: like it's a drone, like of course, like, but I'm saying,
- 36:35Speaker 2: like assuming that you like build the thing safely in
- 36:37Speaker 2: this and that.
- 36:38Speaker 4: Now, I don't know if it is chuck, because I
- 36:39Speaker 4: feel like during the metavac flights you also have a
- 36:42Speaker 4: few paramat ICs kind of like okay, yes, yeah.
- 36:45Speaker 2: Right, you want someone to taking care of you during
- 36:46Speaker 2: that travel time. Yeah that's fair. Yeah, okay, Yeah, I
- 36:50Speaker 2: glad I hashered out in front of everyone in public.
- 36:56Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about uh coming next summer
- 36:59Speaker 2: to the seaport and Boss the American the Museum of
- 37:02Speaker 2: American Finance.
- 37:04Speaker 3: Ready to Tucker, I'm excited about this. I'm not sure
- 37:08Speaker 3: you guys are tucky.
- 37:09Speaker 2: You're missing the point. We're gonna do a remote from there.
- 37:12Speaker 4: Yeah, it's definitely sponsored by Fidelity. They're not gonna have us.
- 37:17Speaker 4: What do you mean I started out there, I'm not sure.
- 37:20Speaker 3: We're fine. I'll try and put in a good word,
- 37:22Speaker 3: but but no, they're.
- 37:22Speaker 2: Gonna have things like they're gonna have an eighteen ninety
- 37:25Speaker 2: seven bond certificate from the Boston Terminal company that helped.
- 37:27Speaker 3: Build South Station. That's so cool.
- 37:30Speaker 2: So again, I'm the guy who like when I go
- 37:32Speaker 2: to you know that the couple times I've been to
- 37:34Speaker 2: Mount Washington, I've gone to the Mount Washington in or
- 37:37Speaker 2: whatever it is, and I visit the Gold Room where
- 37:39Speaker 2: they hashed out, you know, the Breton Woods talks. Because
- 37:41Speaker 2: I thought it was cool, Like that's that. I don't know.
- 37:44Speaker 2: I I think this is great. I can understand why
- 37:46Speaker 2: my kids might not want to go see a piece
- 37:49Speaker 2: of paper.
- 37:51Speaker 3: Yes, sure, that's fair.
- 37:53Speaker 5: Gather round, kids, Look at this bond.
- 37:55Speaker 2: Check out this signature on this check from JFK.
- 37:58Speaker 3: It's a literal coupon.
- 38:02Speaker 4: That's where the term came from. And sorry, it's true.
- 38:05Speaker 3: Is there a gift shop or is uh?
- 38:07Speaker 2: Listen, if you get a gift car a coupon for
- 38:11Speaker 2: you know, Dijon mustard, it's a coupon coupon.
- 38:14Speaker 3: That's how we'll end the show.
- 38:16Speaker 2: Markets remain heavily negative. It's it's kind of ugly out there. Actually,
- 38:20Speaker 2: Dow off about thirteen hundred points, SMP off two fifty
- 38:23Speaker 2: NASDACV eight seventy five. We're back tomorrow to finish the
- 38:25Speaker 2: week on the Financial Exchange