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Hoover Daily Report | June 9, 2026 · Hoover Daily Report

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  Welcome to "the Hoover Daily Report". Ideas Advancing
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  Freedom. It's Tuesday, June 9th, twenty twenty six.
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  Today, John Cochrane writes of another concern newly minted Fed Chair Kevin
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  Warsh will face: uncertain forecasting. Andy Hall finds that beyond all the
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  doom-and-gloom projections of its effects; video content creators are
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  loving AI. And H.R. McMaster speaks with a leading legislator in the Merz
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  coalition governing Germany, who discusses the future of US-Germany
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  relations amid a changing international order.
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  The Fed’s Forecasting Problem.
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  In this week’s Grumpy Economist Weekly Rant, Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane
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  examines one of the central challenges facing the Federal Reserve under Kevin
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  Warsh’s leadership: how to make policy when forecasts and models remain deeply
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  uncertain. Cochrane argues that the Fed’s inflation forecasts have repeatedly
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  proved unreliable, from misplaced expectations in 2016 to the belief that
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  inflation would fade quickly in 2021 and 2022. Cochrane distinguishes between
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  forecasts, which try to predict what will happen, and models, which are better
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  suited to asking “what if” questions about policy choices. But both, he
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  argues, have limits. When central bankers do not fully understand the forces
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  driving inflation, monetary policy should be guided by caution, evidence, and the
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  capacity to respond decisively to events rather than relying too heavily on
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  uncertain predictions.
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  Memes Over Doom: How TikTokers and YouTubers See AI.
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  Taking on the often negative perception of AI among the American electorate,
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  Senior Fellow Andrew B. Hall looks at a specific subset of internet savvy
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  individuals, digital creators on YouTube and TikTok, and finds their responses
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  quite positive. After sifting through 25,000 videos, Hall says his research
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  team found much more acceptance of AI than rejection. “There is way more
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  content that embraces AI than you might expect if you only read national news,
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  perused certain corners of X, or listened to politicians and lab leaders constantly
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  discussing the public’s AI backlash,” Hall writes. “On TikTok and YouTube,
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  content embracing AI beats out explicitly anti-AI content by 3 to 1.”.
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  Germany: The Future of Transatlantic Relations.
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  Norbert Röttgen, deputy chairman of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and
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  Christian Social Union in Bavaria parliamentary group in the German
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  Bundestag, joins Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster on Today’s Battlegrounds to
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  discuss US-German relations; Germany’s defense, economic, and foreign policy
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  priorities; strains in transatlantic relations; and the future of NATO and the
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  European Union. The conversation examines Germany’s evolving approach to security
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  and defense in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the changing balance
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  of responsibilities within NATO, and the challenges posed by Russia, China, and
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  Iran. Röttgen and McMaster also discuss economic competitiveness, energy
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  security, transatlantic cooperation, democratic resilience, and the political
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  and social forces reshaping Western democracies, as well as the future of the
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  US-German partnership amid a changing international order.
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  India-US Cooperation in the Energy Sector.
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  In this new essay, D. P. Srivastava, former Indian ambassador to Iran, writes
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  of the “complementaries” that could enable India to grow its relationship
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  with the US. Srivastava says this can be achieved through increased trade in
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  liquefied natural gas (LNG), and nuclear cooperation, especially in the wake of
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  the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in 2026. Srivastava says India’s
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  intense need for LNG creates a unique market opportunity for US producers.
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  India also plans to increase its nuclear power output by more than 1,000 percent
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  between now and 2047, and US suppliers and power plant designs could assist
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  India in meeting this goal.
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  Popular Conceptions of Fourth Amendment Curtilage.
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  In a new paper for the Michigan Law Review, Senior Fellow Orin S. Kerr of
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  Stanford Law School and Matthew B. Kugler of Northwestern University’s Pritzker
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  School of Law find that courts have a different
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  view of how curtilage—the part of a property immediately
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  outside and around a dwelling—should be protected by the Fourth Amendment. Using
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  three studies with 600 participants each, they find that ordinary citizens think a
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  broader part of a person’s property should be protected from warrantless
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  search and seizure than what current doctrine states. “In the doctrine,
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  curtilage is limited to the area immediately around the home. But the
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  public disagrees,” Kerr and Kugler write. “To most people, privacy in the home
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  extends to the entire property. If it’s part of the property, it’s private. In
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  short, the public has a far more expansive conception of home privacy than
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  courts allow.”.
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  Featured Hoover Publication.
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  Critical Conditions: An Operating Framework for Allied Economic Statecraft.
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  Hoover Fellow Ike Freymann and coauthors Hugo Bromley and Kazuto Suzuki have
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  developed a four-layer evaluation rubric to allow the US and its allies to rapidly
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  assess and prioritize the most
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  dangerous supply-chain dependencies that exist across their shared economies.
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  That’s your Hoover Daily Report for Tuesday, June 9th, twenty twenty six.
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  Each weekday, we bring you research, analysis, and commentary focused on
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  public policy, national security, and the ideas shaping American society and
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  government.
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  The Hoover Institution at Stanford University is grounded in constitutional
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  principles with a commitment to sustaining the safeguards of the American
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  way of life.
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  Thank you for listening.
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  For links to all the articles and interviews mentioned today, visit
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  hoover.org slash, HDR.