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3M Open - PGA DFS | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | First Look · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All systems gone clear. We lift. Good afternoon, We are
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: back with another episode of PGA Tour DFS Betting. First
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: look for the three M Open. Now that major season
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: is complete, we move on to the Summer of Birdies.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It's kind of what I like to call it. Every
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  Speaker 1: single year we get these courses like CPC, Twin Cities,
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  Speaker 1: Detroit Window, and plenty more in between, where it's just
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  Speaker 1: Birdy frest, BIRDI frest, Birdie Fresh and you might not
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: like that, but it is what it is, and we're
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  Speaker 1: going to handicap it and try to find the golfers
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  Speaker 1: that select that fit the molds that we are looking for.
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  Speaker 1: First thing I want to do, as always, is go
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  Speaker 1: through my Twitter thread, which I basically put a bunch
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  Speaker 1: of key stats, key information and everything in between to
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: hopefully lead you on the right stats, the right golfer.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So let's not waste any time. Let's get over to
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  Speaker 1: the Twitter thread right now. So here we go, Summer
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  Speaker 1: of Birdie's. As I said before, some easy scoring conditions.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk some stats. This is a very interesting thing
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  Speaker 1: that jumps out the last three years or I don't
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  Speaker 1: know why. It says two the last two leaderboards oh no, no, sorry,
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  Speaker 1: this is the leaderboard last year and this is the
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: leaderboard the year before. I got confused for a second.
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  Speaker 1: We saw some stat leaders in the top three, so
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  Speaker 1: approach number one, Kadiama won it, Stevens around the green
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  Speaker 1: number one, Nap off the tee. Top three golfers twenty
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  Speaker 1: twenty five. Grazeman was first in putting, Kosher was first
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  Speaker 1: in approach, McNeely was first around the green, and Pendrick
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  Speaker 1: was first off the tee. It's kind of rare that, uh,
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  Speaker 1: that a a golf course for rewards like the overall
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  Speaker 1: leader in multiple individual stat categories. Usually we see guys
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  Speaker 1: with balance profiles with like just approach, just putting, but like,
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  Speaker 1: it's rare that we're getting all the key stats, all
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  Speaker 1: of the golf stats showing to the top of the
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  Speaker 1: leader board. So it kind of proves that there's multiple
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  Speaker 1: ways to get your way to the top, and there's
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  Speaker 1: no real profile that's that that doesn't work around TBC
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  Speaker 1: twin Cities. Obviously, there's some some key ones that will
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  Speaker 1: be rewarded more than others which we're going to get into,
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  Speaker 1: and that is going to be going to be approach.
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  Speaker 1: So let's let's get into that. But first, the recent
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  Speaker 1: winner is Kiddiyamatne Lee, John Vegas. They all poured us
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  Speaker 1: towards a similar profile. And here's what I was saying, approach.
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  Speaker 1: The last four winners combined to gain thirty three point
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  Speaker 1: twenty six strokes on approach. That is all of their
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  Speaker 1: approach play added. That's obviously not a a one year thing.
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  Speaker 1: That is what they've done is a lot over four
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  Speaker 1: years of data. And their average weekly approach rank is fifth.
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  Speaker 1: So you have to be spiking an approach. You have
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  Speaker 1: to be towards the top of the leaderboard on approach
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  Speaker 1: to get to that winner circle. It also has shown
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  Speaker 1: up before they've won. This is each of the past
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  Speaker 1: four winners recent spike approach prior to their win. So
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  Speaker 1: Kurt spiked twice on approach, Tone spiked fours, Lee Hodges
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  Speaker 1: spiked twice, and John Vegas spiked once. What that means,
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  Speaker 1: what is a spike approach week That is a plus
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  Speaker 1: one per round in their previous and I'll just make
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  Speaker 1: it easier. Plus four strokes are better in a given
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  Speaker 1: tournament uh in their previous ten stars prior to their win.
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  Speaker 1: So that's really important. The approach play is loaded with
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  Speaker 1: I mean, TBC twenty cities is loaded with mid iron approaches.
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  Speaker 1: If you can't capitalize in those ranges, it's hard to separate.
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  Speaker 1: Separate driving is office absolutely important important here. Everyone thinks
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  Speaker 1: this is a bomber track. This is a off T track,
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  Speaker 1: And while that's not untrue, the iron play is the
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  Speaker 1: real separator. But this is the recent spike approach Spike
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  Speaker 1: approach profiles before they got into that winning winning circle.
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  Speaker 1: Kurt twice, Tone tone twice, Lee Hodges wants John Vegas twice.
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  Speaker 1: Here we go, what's next? What's next? All some more
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  Speaker 1: driving stuff. This is their average lead in driving profile
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  Speaker 1: over the last four winners. You could see that you
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  Speaker 1: have to be long, but you have to like have
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  Speaker 1: control as well. This is not just a gorst like
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  Speaker 1: the Detroit where summer birdies, but you're spraying everywhere. You
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  Speaker 1: have to be able to have some both total, some
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  Speaker 1: long and straight profile. Obviously, distance is the key factor
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  Speaker 1: in the driving fields instead of accuracy. So I'm looking
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  Speaker 1: at distance instead of accuracy. But you can't be wild
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  Speaker 1: off these seas. There's water, there's there's some rough. So
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  Speaker 1: here's the average ranks of off the tee that is
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  Speaker 1: twenty fourth compared to fifth for approach. So the driver
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  Speaker 1: creates opportunities, the irons cashed them in. I love that
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  Speaker 1: little that little sentence right there, and I think that's very,
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  Speaker 1: very very true. Here was just a little bit of
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  Speaker 1: like a TLDR on what it's the courses asking. This
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  Speaker 1: is course history huge here. The recent winners have had
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  Speaker 1: some nice finishes before. They've won Kurt sixth, Vegas second,
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  Speaker 1: Lee Hodge's sixteenth, and Tone third. So here's the profile.
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  Speaker 1: Here's some more stats that they've checked the boxes and
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  Speaker 1: during the week, you guys can see last twenty five
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  Speaker 1: off the T, last twenty five approach, the spike approach,
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  Speaker 1: the spike off the T, previous top twenty. It's pretty
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: good stuff here, So definitely screenshot this and take a
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  Speaker 1: look at that going forward. So here's some concourses TPC, Summerlin,
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  Speaker 1: TPCDRN Craig Ranch, Detroit, Vidante, Viarta and the Pete Dye
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Stadium course. They all make sense. They're all birdie birdie
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  Speaker 1: golf courses. And also in their last five starts or
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  Speaker 1: start in the previous two starts golf, the winner here
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  Speaker 1: has had a previous T twenty or better. So there's
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  Speaker 1: a lot of boxes that we are kind of checking
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  Speaker 1: and crossing a lot of guys off. So look for
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  Speaker 1: these boxes and I think this could lead you to
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the right golfer. So as always a shout out to
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Insceri's Golf for all the data, for all the projections,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: betting content, da DFS tools. Check out ship a Nation.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Why want to just talk to here right now? You
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: say a savor for later in the show, but you
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: can go right here use this code boots and use
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: all of that data that I just talked about to
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: optimize to find more. You can add the golfers that
• 6:25
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• 6:28
  Speaker 1: right here, PGA for projections, showdown content, the stone, the
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: slate station where you're going to get some picks from
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: all of us. I know we're not about the picks,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: but we'll sprinkle them in there when need be. So
• 6:40
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• 6:42
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• 6:44
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• 6:52
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• 6:59
  Speaker 1: week or ten percent off. So usually I saved that
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: for later in the show, but it kind of just
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: it just came to me, so I went with it.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: It just came to me, so I went with it.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Is also a key and Peel quote, So if you
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: look key and Peel, drop your favorite skate below. Next thing,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: the winners here, Kurt Vegas. We just talked about the winners.
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  Speaker 1: This is just the winning scores. We see twenty three,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: we see fifteen, we see a pretty similar number. It's
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  Speaker 1: a birdy fest. We're going to get to around minus twenty.
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  Speaker 1: Looking at the weather this week, it is warm, it
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  Speaker 1: is dry, there should be very few delays. There's a
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: little bit of rain coming in Thursday afternoon, maybe a
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  Speaker 1: little bit more Saturday morning. I saw with that kind
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  Speaker 1: of cleared up, expect pretty easy scoring conditions, maybe a
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: little firmer than years past. Last year we saw it
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: be pretty soft. But no matter what this golf course plays,
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  Speaker 1: the wind doesn't seem to beh The Friday Saturday wind
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  Speaker 1: does look a little dicey, but I do I do
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  Speaker 1: think they're still gonna be right for scoring. I would
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  Speaker 1: lean a little bit, I would I would kick up
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  Speaker 1: driving accuracy a little bit in the models, but nothing
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  Speaker 1: too crazy. I'm gonna go with a similar profile that
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  Speaker 1: we normally deal with around TPC twin City. So next
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  Speaker 1: thing we're gonna touch on is the contest selection and
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: the DFS board. I'm loving this PGA Tour twenty k
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  Speaker 1: driving rangers A three entry max one fifty max. So
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  Speaker 1: there's one hundred and forty eight people in this contest.
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  Speaker 1: If you do one hundred and forty eight divided by three,
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  Speaker 1: you're only having to be if you're max entering this contest,
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  Speaker 1: you only have to be technically forty nine other people. Now,
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  Speaker 1: everyone's not gonna enter all three line if you're gonna
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  Speaker 1: put one in maybe two. So if you do max
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  Speaker 1: enter this lineup with what that four hundred fifty dollars,
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  Speaker 1: you have a really really good chance to defeat forty
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  Speaker 1: nine other people if everyone's doing it. But like I said,
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  Speaker 1: they're not going to, so you're gonna have a ton
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  Speaker 1: of overlay. Five K pays up top. We're looking for
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  Speaker 1: five hundred to tenth place, but we're getting it at
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  Speaker 1: eighth I just love this payout structure and the fact
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  Speaker 1: that not everyone's gonna mac under this contest and you
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  Speaker 1: can get a ton of overlay there. So that's what
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  Speaker 1: we were looking at. Taking a look at the Draft
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  Speaker 1: Kings leader board, we have Scotti fourteen nine, a whole
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  Speaker 1: five k higher than the next highest press golfer in
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  Speaker 1: Matverick Maneely. Then we got pass winner Kirk Kadiama Deck
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  Speaker 1: He's in there, Keith Jake Knapp, TK, Jackson Coyven Pierson, Cuty,
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  Speaker 1: and Doug Game round out that nine K range. The
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  Speaker 1: one going for I wanted to touch on in this
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  Speaker 1: nine K range and above is actually gonna be Pearson
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  Speaker 1: Cooty at ninety one hundred dollars piercing. Cuty is coming
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  Speaker 1: in off of a decent week at the Open Championship,
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  Speaker 1: where he finished T twenty eight. Gains stroke everywhere except
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  Speaker 1: for off the tee. I'm not too worried about the
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  Speaker 1: off the tee because the often t he's been solid,
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  Speaker 1: Like looking back down to all the way to Houston,
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  Speaker 1: it's been pretty consistent even further all season long. The
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  Speaker 1: often t play is pretty solid for Pierson Cuty. He's
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  Speaker 1: proven some nice approach play over his last four starts,
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  Speaker 1: and the putter of the around the green is there,
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  Speaker 1: so they can look at his course history. He's finished
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  Speaker 1: seventy second and third here in his last two starts,
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  Speaker 1: So piercon Cuty is definitely comfortable around PBC twin cities,
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  Speaker 1: and I kind of love the lead in form here
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  Speaker 1: at ninety one hundred dollars. So Pierson Cuty is one
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  Speaker 1: golfer that I'm definitely touching on in this nine k range.
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  Speaker 1: The next golfer is down the board a little bit
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  Speaker 1: and he goes by the name of mac Meisner eighty
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  Speaker 1: one hundred dollars. Mack Meiser has not missed the cut
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  Speaker 1: since the Canadian Open, and before that, he has not
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  Speaker 1: missed the cut since the vallast Bar, so he's having
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  Speaker 1: a pretty consistent cutmaking season. I love what he's doing
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  Speaker 1: with the approach play, not only the last two weeks
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: but all the way bet dating back to those miscuts.
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  Speaker 1: His course history here is not bad at all. Fourteenth
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  Speaker 1: and fifty ninth in the last two seasons. Solid approach spikes,
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  Speaker 1: He's comfortable with the ball striking. He's never lost strokes.
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  Speaker 1: Ball striking if you can find something on the greens.
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  Speaker 1: Mack Meisner could be in for a ceiling week. We've
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  Speaker 1: seen him have these random ceiling weeks even in the summer.
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  Speaker 1: So I love mac Meisner at eighty one hundred dollars
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  Speaker 1: to be a nice top ten play, to be a
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  Speaker 1: nice golfer to pair with someone else in at nine
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  Speaker 1: gear range. So Mack Meiser eighty one hundred dollars is
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  Speaker 1: someone I've definitely wanted to touch on. Taking a look at
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  Speaker 1: the betting board, who else but Scotti Sheffier leads the
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  Speaker 1: way about about two and a half to one. Then
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: it's Kurt mav Decky, very similar to what we see
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  Speaker 1: all on the DFS board. I wanted to touch a
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  Speaker 1: look at. Take a look at Corey Connor's whoun forty
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  Speaker 1: eight fifty to one. Corey Connors is striping the irons.
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  Speaker 1: What else is new? But I mean he hasn't had
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the best iron season of his of his career, like
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: he's had these random, like one off losing weeks. But
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: it's coming back to earth. He's now gained strokes on
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  Speaker 1: approach in four straight starts. More than anything, he's gained
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: strokes on the putting greens. In his last two starts.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: That's what you need to look for for Corey Connors.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: We know he's gonna hit it well. We know he's
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: gonna hit fair ways. But if Corey Connor's is gaining
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  Speaker 1: strokes on the greens, that's good stuff. The last time
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  Speaker 1: we played this golf course was twenty nineteen and he
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  Speaker 1: gained nearly is that over ten strokes ten strokes ball
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  Speaker 1: striking and lost a whopping seven strokes on the putting greens.
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  Speaker 1: If he can find anything on this putting surfaces, we
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: know he's gonna hit it well. Corey Connor's is not
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  Speaker 1: scared to get into the mix. So Corey Connor's fifty
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  Speaker 1: to one I think is a nice little target to
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  Speaker 1: potentially beat Scotti. He's gotten a attention in difficult conditions,
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  Speaker 1: don't I don't think it's crazy at all. So Corey
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  Speaker 1: con fifty to one is someone I want to touch
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  Speaker 1: on on the betting board. The next guy down the
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  Speaker 1: betting board is a player who's played well recently, is
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  Speaker 1: a player who almost won a golf per hunt recently,
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  Speaker 1: and as a player who's played well here before, and
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: that is another Canadian, Taylor, Pendrid Taylor Pendrith. That's seventy
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  Speaker 1: four sorry, seventy four hundred dollars. I guess slash one
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  Speaker 1: hundred and one around should be a great candidate for
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  Speaker 1: this week. He's coming off of two straight weeks in
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: which he's hit the ball pretty well. Last week he
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: missed the cut at Keralis, which is a bit of
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: a surprise, but it was all putter. That was all
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: potter for Taylor Pendrith. Looking at his three m open
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  Speaker 1: course history, he's only missed one cut, he's had a
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  Speaker 1: fifth place finish, and he's proven to be able to
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: put well. So Taylor Pendrith at one hundred to one,
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  Speaker 1: He's a PGA Tour winner, he knows how to get
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: into the mix, and this is a golf course that
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: rewards his style of game. So I absolutely love Taylor
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  Speaker 1: Pendrith at that one hundred and one, like Corey Connor's
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: on fifty to one as well. So those are the
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  Speaker 1: golfers that I'm looking for in the betting market. I
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  Speaker 1: think they all provide some nice upside, some nice maybe
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: not inequity, But if you don't want to bet them outright,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: touch on a top ten, top twenty, I'm sure you
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: can find great numbers for where they are. The next
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  Speaker 1: thing I want to touch on is a potential chalky
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: yet a potential pivot the model and the one golfer
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  Speaker 1: that I am on, so let's not waste any more time.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: The potential chalky golfer of the week, at least that's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: what I'm thinking early on in the week, is a
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: golfer who's just been playing some great golf. Everyone's tending
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: to love him, but I'm going to avoid him when
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: he gets chalky. I think it could be not even
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: because we've seen him play okay as chalk recently, but
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: this guy's ceiling or sorry, this guy's volatility is massive.
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  Speaker 1: He can finish dead last just as easy can finish
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  Speaker 1: top twenty. So that is Jackson Super eighty nine hundred
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  Speaker 1: dollars priced a little bit too high for my liking
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: right now, but looking at his recent results, he's been
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: making cuts, he's been hitting the ball well, he's been
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: proven to get into the mix, and he's making birdies.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Guys like he's putting so well. He's doing a lot
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: of good things. But I just don't want to buy
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Jackson Super's volatility because we know he missed the cut.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Last time it was here, he missed the cut, didn't
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: hit it that well. I think this price is too high.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I'm a Jackson Super fan, but I just cannot buy
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: him near nine k at ownership. That's going to be
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit too high for what he usually is
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: and what he should be. So Jackson Super is its
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: potential trucky golfer of the week. Now let's talk pivot. Now,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: this is not a pivot off of Jackson Suber. This
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: is a pivot in the top of the board. I
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: think the pivot up here is going to be Maverick
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: McNeely at ninety nine hundred dollars. It's rare that I'd
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: say the second highest price golfer is a pivot. But
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I see people going to Kurt, I see people going
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: to Scottie like I just don't see people clicking Maverick
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: macneeli's name because he hasn't been doing the best things recently.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: He's not broken the top twenty since Maryfield Village. He's
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: been hitting it kind of poorly his last two weeks.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: But looking at US three, I'm a in history. He's
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: played al right here. He's sixteen and a top twenty
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: in the last four years. He's quit well here before,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: He's hit it roll at the tea here every time,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and he's proven some approach upside. So I think I
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: don't think Maverick isn't the greatest of form in the world,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: but I think he's going to catch people by surprise.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: And this is a golf course that he should play
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: well at. So Maverick Neely is the potential pivot for
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: me in that top range. Let's talk model. Let's see
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: who models out well for me that I know you
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: guys know how like a finicky and pick am with
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: a model. I kind of trusted a lot to make
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: my bets to go from there. And I have all
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the results tracks, so you go to my Twitter if
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: you want to see all of the model results and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: everything tracks for the last four seasons. Three seasons. Here
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: we go. The model is Scotty Scheffler number one, kur
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Kadiyama two tied for third, Tom Kim, Johnny Kiefer, and
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: I almost said Brooks Koepka, but that is Ben Coles
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: tied for six, Michael Brennan, Christian Buzetenhut tied for ah,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Lucas Glover William Mann, now Max uh McGreevy, Max McGreevy,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Joel Damon and Zach Blair. What I used to model
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: was I made one, two, three, four, five models times
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: three fifteen different models, aggregated it into one. We've got
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: approach play plus off the tee heavy with approach, a
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: pros play plus course history heavy with approach, approach play
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: plus strokes gain, total distance plus approach accuracy plus total
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: driving plus approach. That is the model I have for
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: this week. You guys can see Scotty number one. No
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: surprise there. That leads us to the drum roll of
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the week. The one golfer that I'm on, I'm gonna
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: be playing him in maybe the Betty markets, maybe the
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: DEFs markets, but I am playing him and I think
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: you should too. And that is Keith Mitchell, semi unserious golfer.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: But look what he's doing off the tea and on approach.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: The dude is just absolutely striping it. And when he
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: gets going, he has that top ten upside. Looking at
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: his course history, he's got multiple fifth place finishes here.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: He plays here every year, and I don't think Keith
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Mitchell can win. I really don't. I think maybe he's
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: won before, but like the recent rendition of Keith Mitchell,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: has just been not a winner. Nonetheless, I think Keith
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Mitchell has all the first round leader equity in the world.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: I think he is all the top ten equity in
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: the world. And at what price to see ninety five
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars, I love him to maybe start Matt Keith
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: to just play with whoever you want. So Keith Mitchell
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: ninety five hundred dollars is the one golfer that I
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: am on before we get out of here. As always,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the song of the day is gonna be all that
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I've ever known by. Motionless and White just came out
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: last week, a little bit of a little bit of
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: DM core for you guys. Check out the playlist, let
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: me know what you think, and as always, let's ship it.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: I'll catch you guys Thursday evening with the Showdown Show
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the Showdown Show, as well as Friday and Saturday. Any
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: qrueshs you know where to find me. Peace out, Shitty