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Elon Musk's Next Big Move · Elon Musk Podcast

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  Your ultimate authority for daily Elon Musk news.
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  Exploring the world's biggest ideas with your host Will
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  Walden. There's something new.
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  Will Elon Musk finally deliver on his long promised robo taxi
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  revolution? So this question has arised
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  after Musk announced this week the exit Tesla's autonomous taxi
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  service will launch on June 22nd in Austin, TX.
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  The Robotaxi initiative has lingered in Musk's promises for
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  about 6 years, positioned as Tesla's most critical future
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  product and Tesla's ambitious center around creating self
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  driving vehicles that can navigate urban environments
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  without human assistance, ideally rejuvenating the
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  company's dwindling financial outlook.
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  Now, Tesla's robo taxi strategy centers around model YSUVS
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  currently on the market, though Musk anticipates a steering
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  wheel free model. The Cyber cab could enter
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  production by 2026 and Musk believes that Tesla's camera
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  based technology known as FSD will offer the necessary
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  precision for safe navigation. He repeatedly mocks competing
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  technologies such as Lidar, which is a radar radar based
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  sensor system which is widely utilized by competitors like
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  Waymo. Traditional automotive giants
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  previously entered this sphere only to withdraw after incurring
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  significant costs. General Motors, despite
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  investing billions of dollars, recently abandoned its robotaxi
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  ambitions, pointing to heavy investments in an increasingly
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  crowded marketplace. Ford similarly shuttered its
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  autonomous driving division, concluding that robotaxis
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  presented excessive financial and technological challenges.
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  These decisions leave Tesla alone among major automakers in
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  America. In pursuing this new technology,
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  however, Tesla faces considerable obstacles in
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  demonstrating both technological reliability and economic
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  viability. Bryant Walker Smith, a Stanford
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  law expert specializing in autonomous vehicle regulation,
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  argues that Tesla's main hurdle is economic competition,
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  particularly against human operated ride sharing services
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  like Uber and Lyft. Uber drivers often operate under
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  low wages, which presents significant pricing pressure on
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  robo taxi services, especially considering the high maintenance
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  and operational costs of autonomous vehicle fleets.
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  And currently, Tesla's approach contrasts sharply with Waymo.
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  This is an autonomous taxi service already operational in
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  several U.S. cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix,
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  and Austin, in the same market that Tesla now targets.
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  Waymo, having begun commercial operations in 2020, has grown
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  significantly recently, surpassing 10 million rides
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  delivered via its fleet of about 1500 vehicles.
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  But despite this growth, Waymo continues to incur substantial
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  losses. They reported a $4.1 billion
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  deficit last year. Within Alphabets broader
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  financial structure, though, the parent company remains highly
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  profitable overall. Moreover, Uber is strengthening
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  its autonomous vehicle position through strategic partnerships,
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  particularly with Waymo. The Uber CEO recently emphasized
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  that while humans will remain central to Uber's model,
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  Robotaxi's offer valuable long term potential.
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  Uber's collaboration with Waymo is expanding beyond Austin into
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  new markets like Atlanta, and they're aiming to gradually
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  integrate autonomous vehicles into its fleet alongside
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  traditional drivers. Now, safety concerns also play a
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  significant role in shaping public perceptions around robo
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  taxis. Tesla's vehicles have already
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  attracted scrutiny as incidents. Tesla's FSD has been involved in
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  leading the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to
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  launch investigations into serious crashes, including one
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  fatal accident involving A pedestrian.
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  A Tesla's reliance solely on camera based systems without
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  radar or Lidar leaves it particularly vulnerable to
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  environmental challenges like sun glare or poor visibility
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  conditions. Now just take a second and I
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  want to say thank you to Uber. Uber is helping us out with this
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  episode. And if you've ever thought about
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  becoming an Uber driver, if you need a little bit of spare cash,
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  maybe 50 bucks here and there, you want to take somebody out to
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  dinner, you want to just save a little bit of money on the side,
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  Do it on the weekends. It's a really good way to use
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  something that you may already have that you're not using to
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  its fullest potential. I've done Uber in the past.
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  I'm going to be honest with you, and the fact that I could make 2
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  or $300 in a day just driving my car around, talking to cool
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  people, it's great. There's a link in the show notes
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  for you to check that out. And I want you to know I get a
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  little tiny kickback for that. So when you sign up and you give
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  your first ride, I might make like 5 bucks.
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  So just so you know now, the autonomous vehicle mirrors
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  historical reservations about early automated elevators.
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  The initial discomfort typically subsides quickly once passengers
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  experience the service full hand though.
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  So whether Tesla's camera only FSD system can reliably detect
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  hazards comparable to lighter equipped vehicles remains A
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  contentious question. Is it going to miss all the
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  obstacles that are in its way? Will it drive around them?
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  There's been studies on YouTube channels, we've all seen them of
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  Tesla completely failing in fog and not so ideal conditions.
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  So we're going to see how this works out.
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  Make sure to stay tuned to this channel because if there's any
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  news about this FSD happening in Austin, we're going to be there.
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  Economically, though, Tesla urgently requires a successful
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  new venture as financial pressures mount.
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  Last year, Tesla's sales declined for the first time
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  annually, accompanied by a sharp drop in quarterly profits.
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  The company's stock price reflects these difficulties,
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  having punched 30% since a mid-december peak, partially
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  impacted by market reactions to Musk's outspoken political
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  affiliations and public statements.
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  And despite these ongoing challenges and repeated delays,
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  Musk continues projecting immense optimism about the robo
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  taxi on Tesla's value. He claimed during an investor
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  presentation earlier this year robo taxis could trigger the
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  largest asset value increase in human history, suggesting Tesla
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  could dominate as much as 99% of the robo taxi market.
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  But think about this, if Tesla can nail FSD, they already have
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  the production facilities to make as many cars as they need.
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  Analysts for me skeptical about Musk's claims, though.
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  Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research dismisses the forthcoming June
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  launches. More promotional than practical,
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  Johnson argues that Tesla's latest move amounts to merely
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  demonstrating technical capability rather than seriously
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  testing commercial feasibility. And he said that there's a
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  possibility that Tesla will only be able to have enough cars on
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  the road to make it worth it in about a year or two.
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  Now Skepticism. It's broader industry doubts
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  surrounding Musk's repeated ambitions about Tesla's
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  performance gaps now. Smith also notes that Musk's
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  long record of overly optimistic forecasts undermines current
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  assertions. Historically, Musk has
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  repeatedly announced imminent breakthroughs for Tesla's
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  autonomous vehicle ambitions. Will need to postpone or revise
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  these timelines substantially by years, possibly decades.
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  FSD was announced a long time ago.
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  Still isn't here completely. Tesla did not respond to
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  requests from us for further comment on the impending launch.
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  As June 22nd approaches, Tesla's success or struggle in
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  delivering a mobile viable robotaxi service could
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  decisively impact the company's long term viability and also
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  reshape everybody's visions of Musk's credibility.
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  Tesla's future prospects hinge significantly on whether its
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  latest robotaxi announcement proves to be another unmet
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  promise or the beginning of our transformative new era for
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  autonomous transportation. Hey, thank you so much for
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  listening today. I really do appreciate your
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  support. If you could take a second and
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  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
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  platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly
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  appreciate it. It helps out the show
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  tremendously, and you'll never miss an episode.
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  And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you
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  caught up quickly. And please, if you want to
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  support the show even more, go to Atreoncom Stage Zero.
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  And please take care of yourselves and each other.
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  And I'll see you tomorrow.