Latest / Science Show KY / 10.1.26
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Welcome to Radio Eye's Diary of Science and Nature. Your
- 0:04Speaker 1: reader is Kelly Taylor. I'll have articles on the topics
- 0:07Speaker 1: of science and nature, but first, a reminder, Radio Eye
- 0:12Speaker 1: is a reading service intended for people who are blind
- 0:16Speaker 1: or have other disabilities that make it difficult to read
- 0:19Speaker 1: printed material. Our first article is going to come from Vox, V-O-X.
- 0:26Speaker 1: The headline is, This Weather Threat, costs us billions, and
- 0:31Speaker 1: it's about to get worse. From September 27th. At a
- 0:37Speaker 1: specialized cold lab in Boulder, Colorado, where indoor temperatures hover
- 0:43Speaker 1: around minus four degrees Fahrenheit, atmospheric researcher Anthony Bernal Ayala
- 0:51Speaker 1: slices hailstones with a bandsaw revealing layers of icy growth
- 0:58Speaker 1: like the rings of a tree. These frozen rings, clear
- 1:03Speaker 1: or cloudy, thick or thin, indicate the conditions in which
- 1:06Speaker 1: the hail formed. A clear layer signals the water froze slowly,
- 1:12Speaker 1: while a cloudy layer means it happened quickly, trapping air bubbles.
- 1:18Speaker 1: Bernal Ayala then analyzes the crystalline structures, particles, and isotopes
- 1:25Speaker 1: preserved in these layers. Quote, all that information can tell
- 1:30Speaker 1: you a wonderful story of how the hailstone was growing,
- 1:34Speaker 1: but nobody, not until now, was able to tap into
- 1:37Speaker 1: that history, says Bernal Ayala, who works for Atmospheric and
- 1:43Speaker 1: Environmental Research, part of the Janus Research Group. Bernal Ayala's research,
- 1:50Speaker 1: conducted at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, is part
- 1:54Speaker 1: of a historic effort to study one of the costliest
- 1:58Speaker 1: weather hazards. Researchers hope their findings will help protect lives
- 2:05Speaker 1: and property from the stones that careen to Earth, battering roofs,
- 2:11Speaker 1: pummeling crops, and pockmarking cars. From 2023 to 2025, annual
- 2:16Speaker 1: severe thunderstorm losses exceeded $ 50 billion nationwide, according to the
- 2:25Speaker 1: Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. More than double
- 2:29Speaker 1: the losses seen just a decade earlier. Hail accounted for
- 2:34Speaker 1: 60% to 80% of the damage. In Colorado, one of
- 2:40Speaker 1: the country's most hail-prone states, hail, not wildfire, is the
- 2:45Speaker 1: main factor driving up insurance premiums. And researchers expect larger,
- 2:50Speaker 1: more damaging hailstones to become more common with climate change. Quote,
- 2:55Speaker 1: it's going to just keep getting costlier and costlier, says
- 3:00Speaker 1: Bernal Ayala. Even basic questions about hail have been notoriously
- 3:05Speaker 1: hard to study, but a long-awaited resurgence in research, including
- 3:10Speaker 1: the first major U.S. field campaign to study hail in
- 3:13Speaker 1: more than 40 years, could help change that. ICECHIP, the
- 3:20Speaker 1: In-Situ Collaborative Experiment for the Collection of Hail in the Plains,
- 3:26Speaker 1: aims to improve forecasts, make warnings more precise, and help
- 3:30Speaker 1: communities better prepare. It received $ 11 million in funding from
- 3:34Speaker 1: the National Science Foundation in 2024, just before deep cuts
- 3:39Speaker 1: hit the foundation in 2025. For six weeks in spring 2025,
- 3:41Speaker 1: about 100 scientists and university students chased hailstorms across the
- 3:50Speaker 1: central plains and the Front Range from the Canadian to
- 3:53Speaker 1: the Mexican border, using radar trucks to track storms and
- 3:58Speaker 1: drones to take aerial footage. Researchers photographed hail with high-speed cameras,
- 4:04Speaker 1: measured its impact with a tool called a disdrometer, recorded
- 4:09Speaker 1: hail's distribution and size based on its imprints on foam pads,
- 4:14Speaker 1: captured hailstones in specialized funnels, and crushed hail to test
- 4:20Speaker 1: its strength. Scientists from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also
- 4:26Speaker 1: used balloons to release golf ball-sized sensors into storms. Once aloft,
- 4:33Speaker 1: each hail-like probe collected data on how fast it was
- 4:37Speaker 1: traveling and whether ice was growing on it. A microphone
- 4:41Speaker 1: even recorded water droplets and hailstones hitting it. This has
- 4:46Speaker 1: really been the first time where we've been able to
- 4:48Speaker 1: do a real comprehensive look at hail on the ground,
- 4:51Speaker 1: hail aloft, the storm itself, the environment around the storm,
- 4:55Speaker 1: just everything all at once, said Becky Adams-Seelan, IceChip's lead
- 5:01Speaker 1: investigator and a principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research.
- 5:08Speaker 1: IceChip's samples were packed into 26 cooler-sized boxes and brought
- 5:13Speaker 1: to NCAR. This internationally renowned hub for weather and climate
- 5:19Speaker 1: research has been used to study hail for decades. In
- 5:23Speaker 1: one of its last major campaigns in the 1970s, the U.S.
- 5:28Speaker 1: investigated Soviet claims that it could suppress hail. Researchers say
- 5:34Speaker 1: there's no other U.S. lab like it. The backup plan
- 5:37Speaker 1: to store ice chips samples involved using a walk-in freezer
- 5:41Speaker 1: from a fast food restaurant. Now, NCAR's own future is uncertain.
- 5:48Speaker 1: In late 2025, the Trump administration said it would dissolve
- 5:51Speaker 1: the center and transfer its work out of state. The
- 5:54Speaker 1: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, UCAR, which manages NCAR, sued
- 6:02Speaker 1: the administration in March, alleging that it's targeting NCAR to
- 6:07Speaker 1: punish Colorado for retaining its mail-in voting. and because Governor
- 6:12Speaker 1: Jared Polis initially refused to release former Mesa County Clerk
- 6:16Speaker 1: Tina Peters, a 2020 election denier, in prison for breaching
- 6:21Speaker 1: election security and undermining election integrity. In June, a federal
- 6:26Speaker 1: judge temporarily blocked the White House from dismantling NCAR. The
- 6:31Speaker 1: government has until September 30th to respond to the lawsuit.
- 6:36Speaker 1: I can't even quantify the impact that it would have
- 6:38Speaker 1: to our community if we lost NCAR. Victor Gassini, professor
- 6:43Speaker 1: of meteorology at Northern Illinois University, says. They are the
- 6:48Speaker 1: beating heart. Previous research has predicted climate change's effects on hail,
- 6:55Speaker 1: noting that warmer temperatures could melt smaller hailstones before they land,
- 6:59Speaker 1: but also fuel stronger updrafts, keeping hailstones airborne longer and
- 7:05Speaker 1: allowing them to grow bigger, enabling the most damaging hail
- 7:08Speaker 1: to become more common. A record-setting stone recovered in Yuma County,
- 7:14Speaker 1: Colorado in 2023 measured more than five inches across. That year,
- 7:19Speaker 1: the state logged 176 reports of hail two inches or greater,
- 7:25Speaker 1: surpassing the previous record of 91 in 2018. Scientists say
- 7:32Speaker 1: it's difficult to know how much of the rise in
- 7:34Speaker 1: damage is due to the increase in large hail versus
- 7:37Speaker 1: the increased development in hail hotspots. The connection between a
- 7:42Speaker 1: rapidly growing human footprint and higher insured losses has been
- 7:46Speaker 1: dubbed the expanding bullseye effect. Ghinseni, a principal ice chip investigator,
- 7:53Speaker 1: cites the development boom east of the Front Range along
- 7:56Speaker 1: Colorado's Interstate 25 corridor, which has grown explosively in recent decades.
- 8:03Speaker 1: The population of the Fort Collins metro area alone has
- 8:06Speaker 1: doubled since 1990 to around 375,000 residents. This is happening
- 8:13Speaker 1: across the western U.S. as previously rural or open areas
- 8:17Speaker 1: become densely populated, increasingly expensive targets for hail. Colorado is
- 8:24Speaker 1: the poster child for what I expect the next 25
- 8:27Speaker 1: years to look like for hail, Gensini said. In 2019,
- 8:34Speaker 1: Fort Collins became one of the first cities to adopt
- 8:36Speaker 1: hail-specific roofing requirements for new builds and remodels. Marcus Coldiron,
- 8:42Speaker 1: the city's chief building official, said it was partly in
- 8:45Speaker 1: response to all the shingles and roofing materials taken to
- 8:48Speaker 1: the landfill after a catastrophic hailstorm in 2018. It's still
- 8:53Speaker 1: unclear how well the requirements are working. Coldiron said fewer
- 8:57Speaker 1: permits were being issued for roof replacements and fewer shingles
- 9:01Speaker 1: were going to the dump. However, Fort Collins also hasn't
- 9:04Speaker 1: experienced a hailstorm as devastating as the one that hit
- 9:08Speaker 1: in 2018. A growing number of front-range communities now require
- 9:12Speaker 1: impact-resistant shingles on their building codes, and Colorado legislators recently
- 9:18Speaker 1: passed a law offering grants to residents who install more
- 9:22Speaker 1: resilient roofing. IceChips researchers are also investigating how they can
- 9:27Speaker 1: improve building materials as billion-dollar losses from single storms become
- 9:33Speaker 1: more common. The dollars are simply building up so fast,
- 9:38Speaker 1: said Ian Giamonco, a lead research meteorologist at the Insurance
- 9:45Speaker 1: Institute for Business and Home Safety. Quote, we're still trying
- 9:49Speaker 1: to understand how do we get the best materials onto roofs,
- 9:52Speaker 1: onto people's homes, onto businesses, to actually start shaving off
- 9:56Speaker 1: those losses, end quote. Now we turn to a new
- 10:03Speaker 1: scientist and this article's headline reads, the collapse of the
- 10:08Speaker 1: AMOC would be catastrophic. How will we know when it's coming?
- 10:15Speaker 1: On a sunny evening in July, a research ship called
- 10:18Speaker 1: the Sir David Attenborough was working near the Sorgenfri Glacier
- 10:24Speaker 1: in southeastern Greenland when a kilometer-long wall of craggy, bulging
- 10:29Speaker 1: ice collapsed into the fjord. The scientists on deck watched
- 10:34Speaker 1: in stunned silence as an estimated 18 million tons of
- 10:38Speaker 1: ice slowly flipped over, sending up vast plumes of spray.
- 10:44Speaker 1: Iceberg calving on this scale was once relatively rare, but
- 10:49Speaker 1: it has become commonplace in recent years as Earth warms,
- 10:53Speaker 1: and that acceleration could have catastrophic impacts that extend far
- 10:57Speaker 1: beyond Greenland. It is weakening a system of ocean currents
- 11:02Speaker 1: in the North Atlantic that is vital to societies in
- 11:06Speaker 1: Europe and around the world. If the Atlantic meridian I'm sorry,
- 11:11Speaker 1: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. One more time. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,
- 11:20Speaker 1: the AMOC. If it were to shut down, the continent
- 11:24Speaker 1: would plunge into ice age winters with year-round long droughts
- 11:29Speaker 1: and agriculture would become close to impossible. Yet whether the
- 11:34Speaker 1: AMOC really will fail, when that might happen and how quickly,
- 11:38Speaker 1: These points all remain highly uncertain, and because of that,
- 11:42Speaker 1: the threat remains a distant one in policymakers' minds. That
- 11:46Speaker 1: is why an 81 million euro plan is now afoot
- 11:51Speaker 1: to build an early warning system that could alert humanity
- 11:55Speaker 1: if AMOC is nearing a dangerous tipping point. Data now
- 12:00Speaker 1: being collected by the Attenborough Research Ship is core to
- 12:03Speaker 1: that plan. We might be committed to centuries of change
- 12:07Speaker 1: without knowing it, said ocean scientist Paul Holland at the
- 12:12Speaker 1: British Antarctic Survey as he prepared to set sail from
- 12:15Speaker 1: the port of Harwich, UK, some weeks earlier. Quote, we
- 12:19Speaker 1: might be passing these tipping points without realizing, end quote.
- 12:24Speaker 1: So how worried should we be about the AMOC collapsing?
- 12:28Speaker 1: What will it take to build an early warning system?
- 12:31Speaker 1: And will the alarm bells persuade governments to pull back
- 12:33Speaker 1: from the point of no return or at least to
- 12:36Speaker 1: prepare for the consequences. The AMOC is a crucial section
- 12:41Speaker 1: of an undulating but well-established conveyor belt of ocean currents
- 12:46Speaker 1: that flow around the globe. Traversing the entire belt takes
- 12:51Speaker 1: a typical parcel, about one cubic meter of water, about
- 12:55Speaker 1: a thousand years. Like the rest of this conveyor belt,
- 12:59Speaker 1: the AMOC, which circulates between North America and Europe, is
- 13:03Speaker 1: driven by temperature and salinity, Around the Gulf of Mexico,
- 13:07Speaker 1: the harsh sun heats the ocean and drives evaporation. The
- 13:11Speaker 1: resulting warm, salty water flows towards the seas between Greenland
- 13:16Speaker 1: and the UK in a part of the AMOC called
- 13:19Speaker 1: the Gulf Stream. As the circulation pushes north, the atmosphere
- 13:24Speaker 1: cools the salty water so that it becomes denser and
- 13:26Speaker 1: cascades towards the ocean floor like a subsurface waterfall. From there,
- 13:32Speaker 1: water flows southward along the seafloor back towards the Americas.
- 13:37Speaker 1: To replace the water sinking in the North Atlantic, more
- 13:41Speaker 1: warm water must then flow from the Gulf of Mexico,
- 13:45Speaker 1: powering the circulation. The warm water surging from the Gulf
- 13:51Speaker 1: of Mexico heats the air over the North Atlantic like
- 13:53Speaker 1: a massive radiator. This heated air blows east with the
- 13:58Speaker 1: prevailing winds, keeping the climate in Europe The average January
- 14:04Speaker 1: temperature in Bergen, Norway, for instance, is around 2.6 degrees Celsius,
- 14:10Speaker 1: while at almost the same latitude in Anchorage, Alaska, it's
- 14:14Speaker 1: negative 8.4 C. The AMOC transports 1.2 petawatts of heat,
- 14:22Speaker 1: 100 times more power than the energy used by all
- 14:28Speaker 1: humans on the planet. Without the AMOC, models predict that
- 14:33Speaker 1: sea ice would cover the North Sea down to Norfolk
- 14:36Speaker 1: in the UK and Friesland in the Netherlands. London would
- 14:41Speaker 1: experience an average winter temperature of 36 degrees Fahrenheit, with
- 14:47Speaker 1: cold snaps of negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit. Similar cold would
- 14:53Speaker 1: descend on Amsterdam, Brussels, Dublin, and Paris. Oslo would see
- 14:58Speaker 1: deep freezes of negative 54 Fahrenheit, or below, at least
- 15:04Speaker 1: every 10 years. The winter is like being in the
- 15:08Speaker 1: Ice Age, and in Scotland it's in the Ice Age
- 15:11Speaker 1: for half the year, says Earth System scientist Tim Linton
- 15:15Speaker 1: at the University of Exeter, UK. Yet this vital circulation
- 15:20Speaker 1: is also the section of the global conveyor belt most
- 15:22Speaker 1: likely to slow down or shut down completely. in the
- 15:26Speaker 1: coming decades or centuries due to climate change. This possibility
- 15:31Speaker 1: was first suggested in a 1987 paper by geochemist Wallace
- 15:36Speaker 1: Brecker at Columbia University in New York. Fluctuations in Earth's
- 15:41Speaker 1: climate aren't always gradual, he wrote, and human-made global warming,
- 15:45Speaker 1: a term he popularized, could disrupt the feedbacks fueling the AMOC.
- 15:52Speaker 1: At the time, evidence was mounting that AMOC had shut
- 15:55Speaker 1: down in the past because of natural changes in the
- 15:57Speaker 1: planet's temperature. About 12,900 years ago, as the last glacial
- 16:03Speaker 1: period was ending, the northern hemisphere suddenly slipped back into
- 16:07Speaker 1: near-glacial conditions for 1,300 years, a period called the Younger Dryas.
- 16:15Speaker 1: After an arctic flower that spread through Europe then, Shortly
- 16:20Speaker 1: after Brecker's paper was published, geochemists studying the composition of
- 16:24Speaker 1: shells trapped in marine sediments found that the AMOC was
- 16:29Speaker 1: sending less surface water to the seafloor during the Younger Dryas.
- 16:35Speaker 1: Brecker and others argued that the melting of an ice
- 16:37Speaker 1: sheet over North America had injected fresh water into the
- 16:41Speaker 1: North Atlantic, diluting the salty water arriving via the Gulf
- 16:45Speaker 1: Stream and slowing its cascade towards the seafloor. Quote, we
- 16:51Speaker 1: play Russian roulette with the climate, he wrote at the time. Today,
- 16:56Speaker 1: a similar process may be happening again, only with fresh
- 16:59Speaker 1: water from Greenland. There are 200 fjords around Greenland pumping
- 17:04Speaker 1: out icebergs and gushing out meltwater five times faster than
- 17:07Speaker 1: they were 30 years ago, says marine geophysicist Kelly Hogan,
- 17:13Speaker 1: who's part of the BAS mission. Since 2004, sensors measuring
- 17:18Speaker 1: water flow have been anchored across the Atlantic as part
- 17:21Speaker 1: of the Rapid Climate Change Program. Although it has found
- 17:26Speaker 1: early indications that AMOC is weakening, it will take several
- 17:29Speaker 1: further decades of data collection to confirm this. Alongside this monitoring,
- 17:35Speaker 1: an analysis of how historical Atlantic surface temperatures have shifted
- 17:41Speaker 1: concluded that AMOC has slowed 15% since 1950. And the
- 17:46Speaker 1: appearance of a cold blob in the North Atlantic, the
- 17:50Speaker 1: only part of Earth's surface that has been cooling over
- 17:52Speaker 1: the past 150 years, suggests the AMOC is delivering less
- 17:58Speaker 1: warm water to the area than before. These aren't good omens,
- 18:03Speaker 1: yet climate models still vary hugely in terms of how
- 18:06Speaker 1: soon they predict the AMOC could reach a tipping point
- 18:10Speaker 1: and how soon after that it would shut down. In June,
- 18:14Speaker 1: for instance, a study found a 10 to 20% chance
- 18:18Speaker 1: the AMOC has already crossed the point of no return,
- 18:21Speaker 1: in which case it could collapse as soon as 2060.
- 18:25Speaker 1: But other research this year found the AMOC would weaken
- 18:29Speaker 1: only gradually, or if humanity emits carbon at a lesser rate,
- 18:34Speaker 1: not at all. The Advanced Research and Invention Agency, ARIA,
- 18:40Speaker 1: a UK government-backed science agency, is building an early warning
- 18:45Speaker 1: system to improve these forecasts and update them in almost
- 18:49Speaker 1: real time, rather than waiting years or decades for studies
- 18:53Speaker 1: to come to fruition. To do this, researchers first need
- 18:56Speaker 1: to figure out the amount of meltwater from Greenland that
- 18:59Speaker 1: is entering the AMOC, what form it is in, and
- 19:03Speaker 1: how that is altering its flow. On the Attenborough research
- 19:07Speaker 1: ship before the expedition, Holland pulled up a map of
- 19:11Speaker 1: results from the UK government's flagship climate model on a screen.
- 19:16Speaker 1: Red pixels south of Greenland indicated where dense salty water
- 19:20Speaker 1: is sinking in the AMOC today. Then Holland switched to
- 19:24Speaker 1: a forecast for intense global warming in 2090. The red
- 19:29Speaker 1: sinking pixels had almost completely disappeared. This is a really
- 19:34Speaker 1: terrifying prospect, so the question is, is this realistic, he said.
- 19:39Speaker 1: Roughly half of the fresh water from Greenland comes from
- 19:42Speaker 1: the surface of the ice sheet, which is being melted
- 19:44Speaker 1: by warming air temperatures. The other half comes from the
- 19:48Speaker 1: fjords where warming ocean water melt the glaciers from below,
- 19:52Speaker 1: and where icebergs calve off, like the enormous ice face
- 19:56Speaker 1: that toppled in front of the ship. The second half
- 19:59Speaker 1: is difficult to model. For instance, many fjord glaciers rest
- 20:03Speaker 1: on relatively shallow sills of bedrock. If they recede into
- 20:08Speaker 1: deeper regions of the fjord, the calving can speed up.
- 20:12Speaker 1: It's an unstable, self-sustaining process, says oceanographer Peter Dutroux. It's
- 20:19Speaker 1: going to retreat like crazy until it finds another sill,
- 20:22Speaker 1: end quote. As a result, the UK's top climate model
- 20:26Speaker 1: may be either under or overestimating the freshwater coming from Greenland,
- 20:32Speaker 1: and because icebergs can float thousands of kilometers before they melt,
- 20:36Speaker 1: it may be incorrectly predicting where and when that freshwater
- 20:39Speaker 1: hits the AMOC. We need to measure the entire chain
- 20:43Speaker 1: of processes, says Holland. To do that, researchers on the
- 20:48Speaker 1: ARIA-funded Greenland Ice to Atlantic mission have a suite of
- 20:56Speaker 1: gadgets at their disposal, a Autonomous underwater vehicle shaped like
- 21:05Speaker 1: a fat yellow torpedo will scan the position of icebergs
- 21:09Speaker 1: and bergy bits in the fjords. Dry-X, a red surface
- 21:14Speaker 1: robot with a sonar pod underneath it, will map the
- 21:20Speaker 1: geometry of ice sheet faces. And small bundles of sensors will,
- 21:25Speaker 1: once delivered by a robot, automatically drill themselves into glacier fronts,
- 21:30Speaker 1: all to measure How much of the retreat is due
- 21:33Speaker 1: to calving versus ice melt? This information will then be
- 21:36Speaker 1: fed into ice sheet models, which will be included in
- 21:39Speaker 1: climate models to improve the AMOC tipping point forecasts. The
- 21:45Speaker 1: next stage of the project will focus on finding a
- 21:48Speaker 1: way to give routine updates about these risks. One idea
- 21:51Speaker 1: is to build an AI model that can reproduce the
- 21:54Speaker 1: forecasts without weeks or months of supercomputing time. The AI
- 22:00Speaker 1: would automatically analyze satellite imagery of ice fronts to spot
- 22:05Speaker 1: accelerations in glacier loss that could increase the freshwater input
- 22:09Speaker 1: to the AMOC. As a side point, regular warnings like
- 22:14Speaker 1: these would be valuable to local Inuit who fish and
- 22:17Speaker 1: hunt seals and whales in Greenland's coastal fjords. They would
- 22:21Speaker 1: know that an outpouring of meltwater or icebergs was coming
- 22:24Speaker 1: that might affect these crucial hunting grounds. An early warning
- 22:29Speaker 1: system would also need to analyze changes in the AMOC
- 22:32Speaker 1: ocean circulation. A climate scientist at the University of Reading
- 22:37Speaker 1: in the UK is one of several teams focusing on
- 22:40Speaker 1: a crucial part of the AMOC called the subpolar gyre, G-Y-R-E,
- 22:46Speaker 1: a vast swirl of ocean currents south of Greenland where warm,
- 22:50Speaker 1: salty water is cooled by the atmosphere and sinks. The
- 22:55Speaker 1: ice sheet's melt is expected to slow down the rotation
- 22:59Speaker 1: and sinking of that water, then a sudden shock could
- 23:02Speaker 1: push the weakened AMOC past its tipping point. Because we've
- 23:06Speaker 1: never directly observed the collapse or any climate tipping point,
- 23:10Speaker 1: we need to figure out what to look for. Robeson
- 23:14Speaker 1: and his colleagues are trying to find potential shocks, such
- 23:17Speaker 1: as a sudden influx of fresh water from a disintegrating
- 23:22Speaker 1: Arctic sea ice. Quote, it may be that there's a
- 23:26Speaker 1: very definite threshold in the system, he says, but it
- 23:29Speaker 1: could be that it's much more blurry, end quote. Now
- 23:34Speaker 1: we turn to earth.com. America's largest underground water supply is
- 23:40Speaker 1: drying up and will ultimately drive up the cost of
- 23:43Speaker 1: groceries nationwide. The largest underground water supply in the United
- 23:49Speaker 1: States is being drained faster than it refills, and it
- 23:52Speaker 1: sits beneath one of the most productive farming regions on Earth.
- 23:56Speaker 1: In one Kansas county, farmers voted to cut their own pumping.
- 24:01Speaker 1: Fourteen years later, the water table there has nearly stopped falling.
- 24:07Speaker 1: The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath eight Great Plains states from
- 24:12Speaker 1: South Dakota down to Texas. covering about 111 million acres.
- 24:17Speaker 1: It supplies roughly 30% of the groundwater used for irrigation
- 24:21Speaker 1: in the country and underpins around a fifth of American
- 24:24Speaker 1: agricultural output, along with drinking water for about 1.9 million people. Corn, wheat, cotton,
- 24:32Speaker 1: and cattle across the plains all depend on it, which
- 24:36Speaker 1: is why its decline is a food story rather than
- 24:38Speaker 1: only a water story. The Ogallala is often called a
- 24:42Speaker 1: fossil aquifer filled thousands to millions of years ago. Natural
- 24:48Speaker 1: recharge in much of the region runs at less than
- 24:52Speaker 1: an inch a year, far below what irrigation removes, so
- 24:56Speaker 1: the system is effectively being mined rather than used. Research
- 25:01Speaker 1: indicates that pumping reductions of 25 to 30 percent would
- 25:07Speaker 1: be needed to stabilize water levels across the aquifer on
- 25:10Speaker 1: a decadal timescale. U.S. geological survey data shows water levels
- 25:17Speaker 1: in parts of the High Plains Aquifer have dropped by
- 25:20Speaker 1: more than 200 feet in some locations since large-scale irrigation
- 25:25Speaker 1: began in the mid-20th century. Satellite analyses show declines across
- 25:30Speaker 1: the aquifer concentrated in the heavily irrigated portions of Texas
- 25:35Speaker 1: and Kansas. A NASA Earth data analysis has mapped what
- 25:40Speaker 1: researchers describe as the human footprint on the aquifer, showing
- 25:45Speaker 1: how pumping for agriculture has reshaped groundwater across the region.
- 25:51Speaker 1: Studies suggest up to 40% of the aquifer may no
- 25:55Speaker 1: longer support irrigated agriculture within decades. The collapse when it
- 26:01Speaker 1: comes will not look like a tap being turned off.
- 26:04Speaker 1: Chris Bowden, a postdoctoral researcher in agricultural water management at
- 26:08Speaker 1: the University of Manchester, told Newsweek that the constraint arrives
- 26:12Speaker 1: gradually as a falling water table reduces the rate at
- 26:16Speaker 1: which a farmer can get water onto fields. Farmers respond
- 26:21Speaker 1: by irrigating less land rather than spreading thinner water over
- 26:25Speaker 1: the same acreage since the latter wrecks yields. More ground
- 26:30Speaker 1: goes rain-fed while a smaller area stays highly productive. Total
- 26:35Speaker 1: production still falls under that arrangement even though the remaining
- 26:39Speaker 1: fields look fine Losing irrigation removes a buffer rather than
- 26:44Speaker 1: simply reducing output. Quote, irrigation is usually a buffer that
- 26:48Speaker 1: prevents catastrophic crop losses, Bowden said, adding that without it,
- 26:53Speaker 1: drought shocks hit harder and year-to-year price spikes become more likely.
- 26:58Speaker 1: Much of the corn grown on the plains feeds livestock,
- 27:01Speaker 1: so disruptions travel into meat and dairy prices before reaching
- 27:06Speaker 1: grocery bills. A structural problem sits underneath all of this,
- 27:10Speaker 1: and it is unglamorous. Groundwater use is hard to measure.
- 27:15Speaker 1: Bowdoin notes that even where policies exist, enforcement is difficult
- 27:20Speaker 1: without visibility into how much water is actually being pumped
- 27:24Speaker 1: at the farm level. He is working on a project
- 27:27Speaker 1: using satellite imagery and machine learning to map irrigation patterns.
- 27:32Speaker 1: Currently focused on sub-Saharan Africa, though the approach transfers to
- 27:37Speaker 1: stress systems anywhere. Satellites already photograph farmland every few days,
- 27:42Speaker 1: which makes the data problem more tractable than it was
- 27:45Speaker 1: a decade ago. The most instructive response to Ogallala depletion
- 27:51Speaker 1: has been running in Northwest Kansas since 2013. Legislation allowing
- 27:58Speaker 1: irrigators within a groundwater district to write their own conservation plan,
- 28:03Speaker 1: which the state then enforces. Farmers set themselves a target
- 28:07Speaker 1: of cutting pumping by 20%, and they've achieved 32%. Water
- 28:12Speaker 1: level decline rates have fallen by about 65% from annual
- 28:16Speaker 1: drops of 1.5 to 2 feet down to half a
- 28:19Speaker 1: foot or less. Well, that's all for the Diary of
- 28:23Speaker 1: Science and Nature. Your reader was Kelly Taylor. Now stay
- 28:27Speaker 1: tuned for further programming on Radio Eye.