Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - The 2nd Trump Trade Will Make Millionaires + Stock Market News 08 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - The 2nd Trump Trade Will Make Millionaires + Stock Market News 08 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Felix here and we're live on this glorious day.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: The rally continues and there'll be the second wave to the rally and by the end of this video, you'll know what to buy, what to avoid and what's actually going on out there in financial markets.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Which is always my intention share a little bit of good old banker wisdom here, pre-market, and also set myself and you up for a beautiful investing or trading day, depending on how you like to spend it.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: And if you have questions, ask them in the live chat.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: That's what we do this live for.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: So I shall be sharing.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Oh, I already shared my screen Brilliant, so here we are for.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: So I shall be sharing.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I already shared my screen, brilliant, so here we are.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: This is what financial markets normally do after presidential elections.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Jim there, welcome to a new trade vision user.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Love to see that.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I hope you get a ton of value out of that.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: My friend, that is entirely our goal to make a software that basically levels the playing field genuinely by giving you access to the best data out there.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: We'll go through a little bit of that a little bit later as well.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So normally, presidential election happens here and then we go from.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the blue and the blue and the blue on the chart here just to make it really, really confusing.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the blue and the blue and the blue on the chart here just to make it really, really confusing.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Humor, the author of this chart.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: We normally go up about 5% till the end of the year after presidential election, and that's purely a factor of.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Just like the fear is gone, the uncertainty is gone, all the hedging is gone, which actually drives down volatility, which actually drives down volatility, vicks the fear and therefore it drives markets up, which is pretty good.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Mariola, what's going on over there?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: We've got Palantir in a second as well.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: So that's a normal year, right, but this, my friends, is not a normal, ordinary election.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: This is a much, much bigger seismic shift.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So I thought we'd look up what happened in 2016, the last time the orange one was chosen, and what happened was see the red line here, that one, that was 2016.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: And from election to 100 days after the election, we actually went up 10% in the market, twice as much as normal.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: And that was Trump, without the sort of full power of you know everything, the sort of mighty blessing of the electorate, to do whatever the heck he pleases.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So this could be bigger.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Now they haven't really talked about tariffs yet, right?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Trump did a video today on sort of dismantling the deep state.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Rfk seems to be on fire, to take apart the FDA and the USDA, which I wholeheartedly applaud Corrupt bastards that run that organization both of those organizations and there will be tariffs.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: His favorite book in the dictionary, words in the dictionary if you listen to that Joe Rogan interview and what happened during the last tariff session.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So when Trump was last in power, he imposed significant tariffs, mostly on Chinese goods, and what actually went up, what went down?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: I think that's quite useful to look at.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So what beat the market were the things up here and what suffered was the stuff at the bottom.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So this up here good, the stuff down here good, bad, okay.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So what was the worst hit?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Well, semis, semiconductors, chips, right, they were largely imported.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: That's shifted a little bit.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: The US produces more now.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Chinese stocks Okay, just Chinese sales.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: That would include things like Apple, because they have very significant China sales.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Tech hardware again you know you're sort of a Dell and that kind of thing Capital goods.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: So machinery, autos, again, because they are significantly manufactured in China.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So your GMs, your forts and so on Materials, transportation and, to some extent, financials.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Now, I don't think it'll have quite the same impact this time around, because a lot of this is already done right.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: We kind of know about the semiconductor situation.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: We know about China.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Financials have much less China exposure now than they had before, so those are probably not going to be as hard hit.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: But I do think real estate will do tremendously well because you get an economic boom, which is what he's promising.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: You know, lower taxation, lower regulations, all that kind of thing.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Consumer services, healthcare, commercial services, energy these are likely all sectors that are going to fly.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Software is an interesting one.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Our big tech friends, right, I think they'll be quite all right.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I actually think they'll do very well because the whole AI thing will continue.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: The government is going to spend a lot of money on software, palantir in particular but it's an interesting thing, I think, to just take a screenshot of this and do and look at.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, this is what happened last time.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Now I can make smarter decisions.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Good morning, there's some of you saying bravo to me.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: What did I say?
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Did I say something offensive?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I probably did, don't I?
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: If you're new to the channel.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I tend to offend all people equally.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: That's sort of generally the program around here.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So if you're of the faint-hearted kind of PC variety, this is probably not the crowd for you.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: You're facing a German with a sense of humor.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: It's pretty serious stuff.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Now let me show you a few other things I like.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I'll also show you a couple of the traits I'm actually planning on putting on today.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I like financials here, and you know, small regional banks are a shitshow really, to put it politely, and that's because they are run by idiots who are incompetent and their risk managers are either drunk or even more incompetent.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So they all bought lots of government bonds when rates were very low.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: They didn't hedge them.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: They didn't know what that word meant, apparently, and it's okay if you and me or retail investors don't understand what that means.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: But if you're running a bank, you should understand what that means, otherwise you're not qualified and you should be put out to pasture along with the whole FDA and USDA, which is what's about to happen.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: But now that rates are coming down so we've got lower rates we're going to get more GDP growth in the US.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: It's actually the perfect scenario.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So the US commercial market is going to recover.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Interest rates come down and therefore these banks, which are still significantly below their 2023 highs, have a pretty decent chance to recover.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: So I think it will happen.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of a nice one.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: And we have a couple of we've been in a couple of financial trades over the last couple of weeks already, but, yeah, some of them are really, really going to go on fire now.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: So banks are already doing very nice.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: The now newly renamed MAGA 7 stocks, the magnificent 7 stocks.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: The A is obviously a joke.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Look at that for a trend line right Now.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: If you're wondering what the yellow line is, or the green line is there.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: That's the 100-day moving average and it's going higher and higher and higher and higher.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: If you find a dip below the 100-day moving average, like ear and ear and ear, then buy the freaking dip for crying out loud.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: What are you waiting for?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Obviously, not financial advice.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Winston taught me to say that Small caps.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: We couldn't afford a chart on small caps for some reason.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: What happened to my small cap chart?
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: We were unable to produce one.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Apparently, I nibbled a little bit on small caps yesterday.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Are we allowed a chart?
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: There's something funky going on with trade vision on the small caps.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: It's like this is a secret we shall keep.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know why my evil voice is always French.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: No idea, I never spent any time there.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I think I got away with that.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So this gap up here right, look at that, that's a beautiful gap up here, massive volume, which is exactly what you want Bounced off the 50-day moving average line, taken out the sideways kind of consolidation zone.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: So absolutely thing of beauty.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: And yeah, today it's down a touch.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: It didn't do a lot yesterday and that's okay.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: And you know what?
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: It might actually come down a bit.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: It might do a bit of this and it might do a bit of that and a bit of this and a bit of that, and people get frustrated and then it's going to go and do that, in my humble opinion.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: So we shall cling on, set a trailing stop loss somewhere, somewhere around there, and that way it doesn't really matter if the world swallows up small caps.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: But I think they'll do very well.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Why would they do well?
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Well, small caps are very affected by the real economy, right?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Much like the success of this live stream is affected by how often or whether you hit the like button, right?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Similar sort of story.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: They actually pay real interest rates to banks.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Why do I mean real?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Because if you're Apple, you're just like how many hundreds of billions we got in the top drawer?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, great, I'll issue some bonds, pay people a percent.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I think they'll lap it up.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: That's sort of what you can do if you're Apple.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: If you're a small company, you've got to go and beg and plead on your knees, cry to your local bank manager and then he's going to go all right, that'll be 9%, please.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: So as rates come down, that's going to really benefit them, right?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: So you're going to be getting falling rates, as Papa Powell said yesterday again, that was quite a performance there from him.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And secondly, they are very, very much dependent on a growing US economy because they tend to be very domestic small companies.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: So you get both of those and you get less regulation.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Triple whammy and small caps should do very, very well.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: So that's small caps.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: That's why I'm quite bullish on those.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: My sense of humor is fine.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I think it should be illegal for Germans to have a sense of humor.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: At least that's what the Brits tell me.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: If you want to spot those kind of breakouts like what we just looked at here in IWM before they actually happen.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Right, a lot of the time we can spot them before they happen.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Then do watch the masterclass that I recorded for you, because I will teach you in that how that actually works.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: And it's completely free of charge and it doesn't cost you a thing except for 30 minutes of your life, and after that you will never look at a chart the same way again, I promise you.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: You will just look at it and you go, oh, my God, is that really what's going to happen?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: And then you're going to start believing it, and then you will walk around and say, hallelujah, you know that kind of thing.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Uh, you'll become one of those um stock chart analysis gospel singers that are such a pest to humanity.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Um, this is an interesting chart.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Tesla in orange, which seemed appropriate.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: The fake town has gotten better, though I must say I think he's got somebody new.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: This is Tesla.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Just imagine Trump getting spray-painted naked every other morning.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: What a job.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: This is Nvidia.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: And look at that outperformance by NVIDIA.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: That's almost a 200% outperformance versus Tesla.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Now tell me that Tesla isn't going to be the one that will dominate the robots and the flying cars and the saucers and the rockets and everything else.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I would say there is a massive upside in Tesla here and yeah, actually I still think call options are relatively cheap on here.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: On that,