Latest / Money News / Half Your Pay: Australia's Rent and Mortgage Crisis π¨π΅π
Transcript
- 0:00S1: But first, tonight the property market remains a focus. Both
- 0:03S1: house prices and. This is a weekly story. And growing
- 0:08S1: is the issue of rents. And the irony of all
- 0:10S1: of this is that the government's tax changes over the
- 0:12S1: last few months have clearly applied pressure to the rental market,
- 0:17S1: which was already under strain and had already increased by
- 0:20S1: about $50 a week on average. So about $2,500 a
- 0:25S1: year over the last 18 months. Suddenly, interest rates have
- 0:29S1: gone up multiple times. You've had high levels of migration
- 0:32S1: as well, particularly in parts of the east coast of Australia.
- 0:35S1: Sydney and Melbourne. And then the federal government makes changes
- 0:39S1: to negative gearing and capital gains tax. And suddenly one
- 0:44S1: of the country's leading developers, Don O'Rourke, who, by the way,
- 0:47S1: we've spoken to multiple times on money news, he's got
- 0:51S1: about $1 billion worth of projects in the pipeline, knows
- 0:54S1: a thing or two about construction. And he's warning today
- 0:57S1: that Brisbane Alone could be facing a 20% rent increase
- 1:02S1: over the next two years. New data has also shown
- 1:05S1: that $130,000 a year no longer has you renting comfortably
- 1:10S1: in a lot of our capital cities. A lot of people,
- 1:13S1: particularly young Aussies, are also spending too much technically on
- 1:17S1: their mortgage. We're talking about 40% of household income combined,
- 1:21S1: going straight on to servicing the bank loan, which technically
- 1:25S1: puts you in what they call mortgage stress. But are
- 1:28S1: there green shoots coming through for the property market? Tom
- 1:31S1: Panos is one of the country's leading real estate experts
- 1:35S1: and the founder of Real Estate Gym. He's on the
- 1:37S1: line for us tonight. Tom, good evening to you.
- 1:40S2: Good evening James. Welcome back.
- 1:42S1: Thank you. Great to talk to you again. A bit
- 1:44S1: for us to get through. Firstly clearance rates from the weekend.
- 1:47S1: In summary. How did things play out in your mind again.
- 1:51S2: Look um it's not positive. Um we've had pretty much
- 1:56S2: March 12th, 14 weeks now where they're well under 60%. Um,
- 2:03S2: now what we're seeing, James, is the rest of the country.
- 2:06S2: Sydney and Melbourne were leading the way in the decline,
- 2:09S2: where clearance rates were the worst that we've seen in
- 2:13S2: some time. Um, but we've got to remember Sydney and
- 2:16S2: Melbourne started to go down before the budget. They started
- 2:19S2: to go down when rates started to get announced going
- 2:22S2: up late last year. James. But now what we're seeing
- 2:25S2: is Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, um, and other parts of Australia
- 2:30S2: also declining that we're pretty resilient before, but overall, um
- 2:36S2: clearance rates, uh, don't look like they're getting any better.
- 2:41S1: Now you're at the coalface of all of this and
- 2:43S1: you do auctions generally every weekend. What is this as
- 2:47S1: an example, look like? Are there fewer people turning up? Uh,
- 2:51S1: are there not as many people bidding? Are there more
- 2:53S1: people observing? What does it actually look like on the ground?
- 2:57S2: Okay, so just for your audience, the auctions that take
- 3:02S2: place in Australia are in Sydney and Melbourne. Overall in Australia,
- 3:07S2: the method of sale that's used is private treaty, which
- 3:10S2: makes up about 85%. But in Sydney and Melbourne it's 50%.
- 3:16S2: So what are we seeing James? There is a drop
- 3:19S2: in volume. It is significant. We're talking about auction volumes
- 3:23S2: have dropped 40%. What that is saying, James, is vendors
- 3:28S2: are scared to go to auction. And the ones that
- 3:33S2: do go to auction, the withdrawals are so high we
- 3:37S2: haven't seen properties withdrawn like this in living memory. So
- 3:42S2: at the moment you've got vendors who don't have confidence
- 3:46S2: in the system. I myself, as you say, I do
- 3:49S2: auctions on the weekend. It is something that I've done
- 3:52S2: for around 30 years. And I can tell you even
- 3:56S2: getting people registered to register to actually bid is very,
- 4:00S2: very hard.
- 4:01S1: Um, so in summary, Tom, are they still turning up
- 4:05S1: or and they just observing more than people actively bidding.
- 4:09S2: Okay. So, um, in some parts of Sydney and Melbourne,
- 4:14S2: there are people that are showing up and looking in
- 4:17S2: other parts, they're not even showing up. But overall, I
- 4:21S2: can say to you is that, um, even the ones
- 4:24S2: that are showing up, they're not bidding. So what they're
- 4:26S2: doing is they're fascinated. There's due diligence, they're looking at
- 4:30S2: what's happening because it's trending so much, but they're not
- 4:33S2: pulling the trigger to bid and they're not buying.
- 4:36S1: Now in relation to spring. And spring is generally a
- 4:39S1: time where the property market can come back to life
- 4:42S1: if there has been a correction or a downturn. Do
- 4:45S1: you believe that spring is going to be the circuit
- 4:48S1: breaker that the property market means? Because the other interesting
- 4:52S1: element to all of this is we've had multiple interest
- 4:54S1: rate rises already this year, Tom, plus the tax changes.
- 4:58S1: The RBA will make its next decision on September 29th.
- 5:02S1: And there's a view that interest rates have to go
- 5:04S1: up again before they come back down. So what will
- 5:08S1: happen in spring in your mind.
- 5:10S2: Okay. So spring James, as you're correct, it is the
- 5:13S2: the real estate season. That's how, you know, let's call
- 5:16S2: it the State of Origin series season, September, October, November.
- 5:21S2: But at the moment it looks like we're going to
- 5:23S2: have a very low spring or a late spring. It's
- 5:26S2: too early to talk, but the listings that we expected
- 5:30S2: to be going up for auction in Sydney and Melbourne
- 5:32S2: are not at the level. What does this actually mean?
- 5:36S2: It might actually help prices because if you've got a
- 5:39S2: lower supply, it can, you know, keep prices from falling further.
- 5:45S2: But it's too early to tell whether we're going to
- 5:48S2: have a spring that's going to start in October. But
- 5:51S2: we know now September. It's not nowhere looking anywhere near
- 5:56S2: like spring's that we've had in previous years, interest rates
- 6:00S2: going up in late September, as you've indicated. I think
- 6:03S2: you said September. Did you say September 27th? Did you
- 6:06S2: is that correct?
- 6:07S1: Yeah. For the RBA. Yeah.
- 6:09S2: James that would be devastating. That would be devastating in
- 6:13S2: the marketplace. Um and it's concerning. Obviously we've got some
- 6:17S2: numbers that are going to come out over the next
- 6:19S2: month or so. Unemployment numbers. Um, we've also got obviously
- 6:23S2: the inflation numbers. We're looking at those numbers closely. Now.
- 6:28S2: Unemployment going up is a good sign that rates might
- 6:32S2: not go up. Um, and, and unemployment did go up
- 6:36S2: last week, but it was very, very, very slight. So
- 6:39S2: I don't think we're going to have a super sprint. James,
- 6:42S2: based on what I'm seeing.
- 6:44S1: Uh, the voice you're hearing is Tom Panos real estate
- 6:46S1: expert and the founder of real estate, Jim Tom. Just lastly,
- 6:50S1: in relation to rents, and you've got Don O'Rourke, who
- 6:54S1: knows a thing or two about property, the CEO of
- 6:56S1: Consolidated Properties, he's building about $1 billion worth of projects
- 7:00S1: in his pipeline. He's saying that rents are going to
- 7:03S1: go up 20% in the next few years in Brisbane alone,
- 7:07S1: but you would have seen some of these numbers reported. Today.
- 7:09S1: We're talking about 60% increases in parts of Sydney and
- 7:15S1: Brisbane and other parts of the country over the last
- 7:17S1: five years. I mean, for young people, it's very, very
- 7:20S1: hard for them to be renting and also saving for
- 7:24S1: a house. And then suddenly the tax settings change and
- 7:27S1: rents are going to go up again.
- 7:30S2: Yeah. Look, all you've got to do, the developer you're
- 7:33S2: speaking about is highly reputable and very successful developer. And
- 7:36S2: he's in good company with people like Stockland and Mirvac,
- 7:40S2: who last week have also indicated that they are going
- 7:43S2: to slow the amount of properties that they're building, not
- 7:46S2: build new ones that we were led to believe. Under
- 7:49S2: the new, um, budget that was going to encourage investors
- 7:52S2: to take advantage of new builds, that's not happening. And
- 7:56S2: you are absolutely correct. Rents are becoming extremely concerning. And
- 8:00S2: why this is concerning, James, is that if rents go up,
- 8:04S2: this is going to make this whole plan that the
- 8:07S2: government had, which was to help young people by even harder,
- 8:10S2: because people that are first home buyers are generally renting.
- 8:14S2: If rents are going up, they're not going to be
- 8:15S2: able to save for the deposit and be in a
- 8:18S2: position to actually buy a property. But it shouldn't be
- 8:21S2: a surprise. James, you've got a good mind. You know
- 8:23S2: how demand and supply is. You tax something, you get
- 8:26S2: less of it, you get less of it. People are
- 8:27S2: going to pay more rent. And it's exactly what everyone
- 8:30S2: was saying pre-budget and it's actually actualizing now.
- 8:33S1: Post-budget Tom. Well said. Great to hear your voice again.
- 8:36S1: We really appreciate your time on Money News tonight.
- 8:39S2: Thanks, James.
- 8:40S1: Tom Panos, the real estate expert joining us on the program.
- 8:43S1: Over to you. 131873. You would have heard and seen
- 8:48S1: this unfold in Australia over the last few months in
- 8:52S1: relation to the property market and now growing the strain
- 8:56S1: on the rental market as well. So where are we
- 9:00S1: heading on this? And if anyone's tried to sell a
- 9:02S1: property recently or buy a property. I'd be interested to
- 9:05S1: hear what you've seen on the ground at the auction,
- 9:09S1: whether it's been difficult. 131873. I mean, the rental data
- 9:14S1: is fascinating because for a lot of young people, they're
- 9:17S1: juggling between trying to work their way up through the
- 9:21S1: various tax brackets. And they're not obviously, let's say they've
- 9:26S1: just graduated from a study, tertiary study, maybe not, but
- 9:31S1: they're obviously, you know, at the lower end of the
- 9:34S1: income scale and trying to pay rent, juggle all the
- 9:39S1: other costs and also save for a house at the
- 9:42S1: same time. Not everyone gets a leg up from mum
- 9:46S1: and dad, and that is a reality. And you learn
- 9:48S1: today that if for someone that's on $100,000 a year
- 9:53S1: in northern WA, that's 64% of your rent. That is
- 9:59S1: consuming the largest proportion of income on the Gold Coast
- 10:03S1: for $100,000, 60% of your income is going to rent.
- 10:08S1: That's on the Gold Coast. It's 51%. In Sydney, it's 45%.
- 10:13S1: In Perth it is 43%. In Brisbane, it's 41% in Melbourne, 40%
- 10:23S1: in Canberra. And then that is for $100,000 for someone
- 10:29S1: that's earning just $70,000. And of course, there would be
- 10:33S1: a lot of situations generally where more than one person
- 10:36S1: would be contributing to the to the rent. But in
- 10:39S1: general terms, if you're trying to rent on your own
- 10:42S1: for just $70,000, well, if you're in northern WA, it's 87%
- 10:47S1: of your income. The Gold Coast 82%. Sydney 69% 55%.
- 10:54S1: In Melbourne 131873 is our open line number. That's according
- 10:59S1: to Priced Out. And for those figures alone, you have
- 11:02S1: to ask how does a young person pay rent? And
- 11:05S1: then also put the money together for a deposit of
- 11:09S1: at least 10%. But then you're probably paying lenders mortgage
- 11:12S1: insurance or 20%, which for $1 million home is $200,000,
- 11:20S1: 131873 is our number. Keen for your calls on that
- 11:24S1: issue and the real estate market at the moment. And
- 11:26S1: by the way, just tell me, what impact do you
- 11:29S1: think the tax changes are having on all of this,
- 11:32S1: both on negative gearing and capital gains tax, your calls
- 11:35S1: after this on money news, a lot of feedback on
- 11:38S1: the property market. No surprise there. Let's go straight to
- 11:40S1: your calls on Money News with James Willis. Steve is online. G'day, Steve.
- 11:45S3: Yeah, hi. I'm not into finance or anything like that,
- 11:48S3: but to me, looking at it clearly from, uh, the
- 11:52S3: price of houses has gone out of control simply because
- 11:55S3: the banks, 30 years ago, you could only borrow 2
- 11:58S3: or 3 times your wage, and suddenly they got deregulated
- 12:01S3: and said, oh, no problems. We can do it eight, nine,
- 12:04S3: ten times. So the prices just went over the top. Now,
- 12:08S3: there's no way you can get a cheap house because
- 12:11S3: the price, the prices are just too high. And the
- 12:13S3: people that are in trouble wanting to sell, they're not
- 12:16S3: going to go for a low price. So to me,
- 12:18S3: it's the bank's fault. They're making millions and billions of dollars, um,
- 12:23S3: through this when if they had just kept it, the
- 12:26S3: 2 or 3 times, housing prices would be a lot better. Um,
- 12:29S3: look at America. You can buy a mansion over there
- 12:31S3: for half $1 million.
- 12:33S1: Yeah. It's interesting. Steven, look, these are rough numbers, and
- 12:36S1: not everyone would be in this situation. But let's say
- 12:40S1: you had a combined household income of $200,000. According to
- 12:45S1: the CBA, you could potentially borrow up to $994,000, and
- 12:51S1: you'd be repaying $6,184 a month. Now, assuming that you
- 12:56S1: had a 20% deposit, um, and you actually worked out
- 13:01S1: those costs, it's probably about a 200 grand on a
- 13:04S1: $1 million house, probably a little bit more than that.
- 13:07S1: Let's say that one person earned $200,000, the other earned $100,000. Uh,
- 13:13S1: in this case, the bank will lend you $1.5 million,
- 13:18S1: and the repayments are $9,491 per month, per month, at 6.34%
- 13:26S1: over 30 years. Uh, that's with a significant deposit on top.
- 13:30S1: At that rate, you're also going to be paying stamp duty.
- 13:33S1: But then, of course, when one family decides, well, we
- 13:37S1: want to have kids and it removes one of those incomes,
- 13:40S1: that it makes it very, very hard. So if suddenly
- 13:43S1: you're in a position where you can afford to borrow
- 13:45S1: or buy a $2 million house, I mean, you're looking
- 13:48S1: at $11,000 a month every month for 30 years to
- 13:55S1: pay that loan off, and some months you'd be okay.
- 13:57S1: But when circumstances change. Well, it'd be very, very difficult
- 14:01S1: not to be in the technical definition of mortgage stress,
- 14:05S1: which is more than 30% of your household income on
- 14:08S1: the mortgage. Thanks for your call. Jeff's online. Hi, Jeff. Hello? Yes.
- 14:13S1: Go ahead.
- 14:15S4: Uh. Hi, James. Yeah, I live in the Caulfield area
- 14:19S4: and regularly attend auctions around and about the place and
- 14:22S4: have been doing so for quite a while.
- 14:24S1: Right.
- 14:24S4: I went to an auction on yesterday. On Sunday. Uh,
- 14:29S4: an immaculate home, four bedroom home, double garage in immaculate condition.
- 14:36S4: A couple of years ago, I reckon it would have
- 14:38S4: gone for 2 million.
- 14:39S1: Yep.
- 14:40S4: I opened with a vendor bid of 1.6 million and
- 14:43S4: there wasn't a single bid.
- 14:45S1: Is that right? Not one bid. Not a single registered bidder. Well,
- 14:49S1: that explains that's one example of what we're seeing. Jeff
- 14:51S1: and Tom Pannell said that the clearance rates have been
- 14:54S1: hovering around that 50%, well below 60% in Sydney and
- 14:58S1: Melbourne in particular, where the majority of the auctions are
- 15:03S1: held every weekend. A lot of texts will just come
- 15:05S1: through to a few of those right now. 0460 873 873. Michael
- 15:11S1: says w a specifically, Metro Perth and Regional WA offers
- 15:16S1: the cheapest major housing options compared to Sydney and Melbourne,
- 15:20S1: with average house prices in affordable pockets tracking roughly $200,000
- 15:24S1: to $400,000 lower than equivalent budget areas in Victoria and
- 15:29S1: New South Wales. Peter says how do people pay for
- 15:32S1: more rent on basic wages? Maybe your job will go.
- 15:36S1: Businesses close. There are a lot of people struggling like
- 15:40S1: ever before and they're very angry about government spending. 0460 873 873.
- 15:46S1: Chris says a four bedroom house with separate two bedroom
- 15:49S1: granny flat in top Ryde in Sydney. No one buying.
- 15:54S1: It's been on the market for a long period of time,
- 15:57S1: Peter says. James, who can honestly afford to live in
- 16:01S1: this country anymore? No one can live here. It's beyond
- 16:04S1: our means and sadly there are some people deciding how
- 16:06S1: many kids they can afford to have. Well, I've heard
- 16:09S1: those stories firsthand, Peter. 0460 873 873. Let's go to Andrew on
- 16:15S1: line five. Hi Andrew.
- 16:18S5: How are you going? How are you.
- 16:19S1: Mate? Good. Go ahead. What do you make of this?
- 16:21S5: I just think that negative gearing has been allowed to
- 16:24S5: get completely out of control. I think, you know, like
- 16:26S5: it's okay if you want a negative gearing to the
- 16:28S5: housing market. But there's some people out there that have
- 16:31S5: got portfolios of 50 to 100 homes.
- 16:34S1: Well that's right.
- 16:35S5: Of course, the banks, the banks are going to loan
- 16:37S5: you as much money as you want. And why would
- 16:39S5: you care about what the price of the home is
- 16:41S5: if you go to auction?
- 16:42S1: Yeah. For an average investment property. Andrew, we are well
- 16:45S1: below $1 million for an average investment property. The difference
- 16:49S1: if you can use negative gearing or not, is generally
- 16:53S1: with the average bank, hundreds of thousands of dollars.
- 16:58S5: Yeah.
- 16:58S1: So it doesn't it doesn't make it a fair fight.
- 17:00S1: And look. Do you know what I don't I don't
- 17:03S1: really really. I think that the government was had its
- 17:07S1: hands tied behind its back. And I think there have
- 17:09S1: been some areas of the property market that have been
- 17:11S1: allowed to explode because of a combination of various tax changes,
- 17:16S1: and I would have been far more comfortable with the
- 17:19S1: government capping the number of properties that someone could use
- 17:25S1: these tax benefits towards and run their quote unquote, business
- 17:30S1: as their investment properties with a loss through negative gearing.
- 17:35S5: But I think that's right.
- 17:37S1: That would have been a far more sensible thing to
- 17:39S1: do to cap it at whatever the fairest or most
- 17:42S1: common number of properties for the average mum and dad investor,
- 17:46S1: which could have been 2 or 3.
- 17:48S5: Well, I think the thing is, with the home, the
- 17:50S5: homes for families to have kids and children and grow
- 17:53S5: up and suburbs, and that's what that's for, you know,
- 17:57S5: and you can invest your money in all sorts of places.
- 17:59S5: You can go in any park and you can negative
- 18:01S5: gear anywhere you want. But once you've got the monopoly
- 18:04S5: boards being taken up by a lot of money, of
- 18:07S5: course it becomes a speculative thing. And then there's more
- 18:09S5: money that has to get into to get in. And
- 18:11S5: of course, the people who are trying to start, they
- 18:13S5: can't get in.
- 18:13S1: Well that's right. And of course, Andrew, as part of
- 18:16S1: the new tax settings, you can still take advantage of
- 18:19S1: negative gearing if you're building a new property. So that
- 18:22S1: will hopefully help supply even though the numbers haven't been
- 18:25S1: great on that. And of course, the government has banned
- 18:27S1: people from borrowing money through their self-managed super fund to
- 18:32S1: buy a property as well. So there are some tax
- 18:34S1: settings that I don't agree with, but I also think
- 18:37S1: that something had to give with the negative gearing and
- 18:40S1: capital gains tax, but I would have capped it on
- 18:43S1: a certain number of properties rather than say from this date.
- 18:48S1: From now on, for all young people who would maybe
- 18:51S1: wanted to save and put every cent they had into
- 18:53S1: an investment property, to instead be saying, no, you can
- 18:57S1: no longer have that tax benefit that has existed for decades.
- 19:01S1: One last call before a break. Dion's online. Hi, Dion.
- 19:05S6: Good day. How are you? James.
- 19:06S1: Good mate. Go ahead.
- 19:08S6: Good. I was just going to say we bought an
- 19:10S6: investment property using equity in our house, you know, four
- 19:13S6: years ago. And, you know, we saw the interest rate rises.
- 19:17S6: I had to, you know, 11 in a row or
- 19:18S6: whatever it was. Um, you know, it just ignore everything
- 19:23S6: you've got to pay in terms of, you know, insurance
- 19:25S6: and the capital gains or sorry, the um, land tax, etc., etc..
- 19:31S6: We just, we just sold it on the weekend and
- 19:33S6: it only sold for an extra 60 grand on top
- 19:35S6: of what we bought it for. But that doesn't include
- 19:37S6: all the additional taxes on top of that. So it
- 19:40S6: was just a loss every year. And the government thinks
- 19:43S6: that people that have an investment property are doing well.
- 19:45S6: But it was hard to do. We were losing money
- 19:47S6: on it, you know.
- 19:48S1: That's right. Is this in Victoria?
- 19:51S6: It is in Victoria, yeah.
- 19:52S1: Yeah. Were you paying crazy levels of land tax as well?
- 19:55S6: Exactly. So, you know, and as I said, we used
- 19:58S6: the equity in the house. So it's not like we
- 20:00S6: had the deposit at front. So there's two loans out
- 20:03S6: on that. And then yeah, so it was just it
- 20:05S6: was just terrible. It was a terrible investment. Um, we're
- 20:08S6: probably probably overall, after everything over the four years we
- 20:12S6: ran at a loss.
- 20:13S1: Well and Dion this is a major issue I have
- 20:16S1: with what the government did in this space across not
- 20:18S1: just property but on shares, on taking risks with companies,
- 20:22S1: is that there are people that have their money that
- 20:26S1: they could easily put into the bank at 4 or 5%
- 20:30S1: and just let that take over. But instead, they've said, no, no, no,
- 20:33S1: I'm going to invest in an Australian company and I'm
- 20:36S1: going to take a risk and put every cent that
- 20:38S1: I have into a share portfolio, or I'm going to
- 20:40S1: give it to a capital investment fund, or I'm going
- 20:43S1: to put it into an investment property and try and
- 20:46S1: sell that one day for a period of time. And
- 20:48S1: the government said, well, this 50% discount on your capital gains,
- 20:53S1: which was a reward for taking risk, growing your own wealth,
- 20:57S1: and inevitably, one day not having to rely on the
- 21:00S1: government as much down the track through a pension or perhaps,
- 21:04S1: you know, through certain levels of aged care or whatever
- 21:06S1: the government support may be. The idea was to help
- 21:10S1: and encourage you to grow your wealth. And in one
- 21:13S1: fell swoop, as a major tax grab, they have removed
- 21:16S1: that once and for all. And I think it's a
- 21:18S1: terrible policy.