Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | May 03, 2024 | UFC 301 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA Show | May 03, 2024 | UFC 301 DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:03
All system's going clear the left of what's going on? Everybody happy USC three
0:38
oh one. Man, what a sports weekend we got. MLB NBA playoffs
0:42
has absolutely have been amazing. MMA, Nascar. I don't know if you're
0:46
going like this like Kentucky Derby one hundred and fiftieth. There you go,
0:51
Kentucky Derby hundred and fiftieth, right there. So much action, so much
0:55
money to be made. Ready to talk some fights with my man, Big
0:58
Marley, that in here, Low Wolf, Jackie Pepper, Little Neck,
1:02
Joanne, Siggy. Appreciate everyone hanging out live watch them on playback. It
1:07
is also the first week of the MMA Live Final. One hundred goes down
1:11
to forty forty to fifteen either next week or two weeks fifteen. Get flown
1:15
out at multiple ship in nation members in there. Good luck Hoop two tickets,
1:19
good luck deep Water one ticket, my man, good luck. Come
1:25
on, gotta get the other name right here, Hold on, I'm gonna
1:27
find it. JP bar four as well. Good luck to you guys.
1:33
I myself also have one. Good luck to myself. I will say it
1:36
because I damn well needed. I'm oh for two of these past two years
1:38
two years ago, got passed round one, not round two. Last year,
1:42
man, I was dead last round one. So I'm gonna say good
1:46
luck to myself as well, Big Molly. Throw you in here. Thirteen
1:49
fights, one loss, but hey, at least we have fourteen. Fourteen
1:53
to thirteen isn't bad like twelve to eleven's the stone cold worst. Fourteen thirteen
1:57
not bad at all. How you doing, Tod, Yeah, I'm pretty
2:00
good. If we had to lose a fight, I guess that's one that
2:04
I was okay losing. But it's a tough card, man. I'm having
2:07
trouble finding underdogs on this card. We lost one of the underdogs that I
2:13
was picking to win. Uh So, I don't know. We'll see how
2:16
it goes, but I'm glad we got one hundred and fifty k up top.
2:20
Hopefully we'll take it down. Hopefully you move on in the finals.
2:23
Yeah, looking forward to breaking this card down with you. Yeah, one
2:25
hundred and fifty k up top and there's I think eighty thousand or something like
2:29
that. Is that three dollars one to fifty match. Very excited for that
2:31
contest. I think it's a good MMV card. It's an interesting one,
2:37
We're headed to Brazil, which is always interesting. A lot of big favorites.
2:40
I'll see a minus seven hundred minus five to fifty minus six forty fives,
2:45
minus four hundred, minus six hundred, so that part makes it a
2:49
little tricky. We lost this William Gomez fight man and really scary, like,
2:53
I don't know how in the world is camp met like one thirty five
2:58
and a half like his puken be four. We're carried out after hopefully he's
3:01
doing better. That fight was gonna go off probably about a pick them,
3:05
and it was eighty six hundred and seventy six hundred. So I thought Gomez
3:08
was gonna be one of the more popular dogs because of moneyline value, even
3:12
though I didn't love it a GPP's for upside, But now I think all
3:15
of the upside. Actually, I'm gonna go look at our projected ownership right
3:19
now again. Up or will be up at chippination dot com. Marley has
3:23
it on our page right here. Projections will be up everything after Steve erseg
3:28
is gonna be far and away. Yeah, I see it the same as
3:30
you. Er Se is gonna be far and away the biggest dog. Otherwise
3:32
I think they'll be mixing match down there and up top. I think it's
3:37
gonna be mixed and match and ownership is gonna be relatively spread out too.
3:39
We have nobody above fifty percent on this card, and I think that probably
3:45
is the case. I wouldn't be surprised if Erseg gets a little steam to
3:49
like the forty five the high forties range is with no dogs there, but
3:52
broadside overview ownership relatively spread out a lot of big favorites. You can leave
3:58
money with fights in the mid tier eighty eight one hundred and seventy four hundred
4:00
is the main events, some solid min tier fights Brito Show it's easier to
4:04
leave money or by Brenner should be a solid fight. Coast of warhas to
4:10
kick it off any broad slate overview before we go fight by fight. No,
4:15
not really. I think it's kind of a mix in at least one
4:18
of the nine k fighters in almost every lineup, and then see what you
4:21
can do from there. But this is a card where I don't know that
4:24
I'm gonna have any lineups with more than like a thousand dollars on the table,
4:28
just because I don't like very many underdogs. On this card, and
4:30
I do want to get those high priced fighters in if I can, so,
4:33
I think if I end up shipping it this weekend, I'll probably tie
4:36
with at least one person listening, but I'm alright with them. Yeah,
4:40
I mean, I'll always take a tie with one person. Especially nowadays,
4:44
people a little ahead of the curve. Like you talked two years ago,
4:46
even a year ago, like people weren't understanding the duplication game, the showdown
4:51
game, people do understand, and now it's so much harder to get unique
4:56
with good quality lineups, you think. And shit, I'm always aiming for
4:59
like five under even ten or under is a pretty solid number there. But
5:02
yeah, just have a plan, know what you're playing for, what's going
5:05
on, g kiper camera bro in here as well, Mike H. Peterson.
5:09
Hopefully all doing well again. Like button helps us out a ton,
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subscribe button helps us out a ton. And if you're not a member at
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the nation, there is literally we say it a decent amount, no better
5:18
time to join. Hey, there's no really better time. There's no NFL,
5:21
unfortunately, but there's every other sport going on. PGA, MMA,
5:26
NBA, MLB, NHL playoffs, NASCAR, all of that, but also,
5:30
as many of you guys probably already know, the Shift de Miser,
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we do have an optimizer called the Shift de Miser. Tamble and Hoop released
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it on Wednesday on the PGA Show. Definitely make sure to go check out
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the first twenty twenty five minutes of that show. Answered a lot of questions
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on it explained right now. If you're a Shiping Nation member, you have
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access to the shift Demiser for free to mess around with it, to try
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it out. If you're not a member, nearly fifteen fifteen percent off you
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see explayers in a week. You put that on Wednesday, get in monthly,
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six month annual package or an MLB only a PGA only. If you're
6:06
watching this MMA show, you probably want all of its fifteen percent off the
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membership and you get the optimizer for the thirty days trial. After that,
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it will be charged still by far the cheapest in the industry, under one
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hundred dollars for content and the shift Demiser MMA will be added. NASCAR will
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be added in a month as well. You can't mess with it right now,
6:28
can mess with MLB, can mess with PGA, but again MMA will
6:32
be there. NASCAR will be there a lot of If you MMA, you
6:35
definitely need an optimizer unless you've got all the time in the world to handbuild
6:40
some do so I'm not gonna hate on that one bit. If I make
6:43
over five teams, I use an optimizer. If I make one team,
6:46
most of the time, I still make an optimizer. Projections loaded, ownership
6:50
loaded. Very excited for that again. MILLI fifteen is the promo code if
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you want to give us a try optimizer is with it for free for thirty
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days try out, but again that will be paid. Still the cheapest in
7:02
the industry, though, Tyler, what's going on? We are back indeed,
7:05
hope you're doing well. Big Marley ready talks to fights man. Let's
7:11
get it. Let's get it bottom in the top like usual. First part
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of the night Man Banger and the closest line fight. So I'm really excited
7:18
to hear what you got to say in this one. Alessandra Costa Kevin Borjas
7:23
minus one nineteen Coast minus one oh one is Borjas my excuse me, minus
7:28
one forty for this fight to finish, Borjas a slight underdog with a little
7:31
better inside the business line. Borhas plus one ninety five coast of plus two
7:36
twenty throw it to you right away in the mid tier eighty two hundred and
7:41
eight K closest price, closest line fight expected to finish. I'm gonna have
7:46
some exposure on both sides, excided. Is hear your take on this one
7:49
though? What do you see? Yeah? Good fight to target, I
7:51
think right there in the mid range, so it's gonna be easy to fit
7:55
in the lineups. I think both guys are in play, and I do
7:58
think the winner of this fight probably does score ten x or more with a
8:03
one hundred point upside as well. I think it's a really close fight on
8:07
the feet. Maybe Borjas is our better minute winner, but I think Costa
8:09
has more power. I also think Coasta is the better wrestler of the two,
8:15
so ultimately I do side with Costa as who I favor in this fight,
8:20
but not enough where like I'm gonna get a whole lot of leverage on
8:22
him and be under on Borjas. I'm fine getting leveraged to both of these
8:26
guys if I can. There's not a whole lot of fights where I want
8:28
to target both sides of heavily, but this is the one where I'm fine
8:33
getting twenty five percent or more of both of these guys, but I do
8:35
think Costa has the more likely ceiling with ko upside or wrestling, so he's
8:41
gonna be my preferred play. But I have no real confidence in it.
8:45
And if you if you go out there in utail Borjas, I'm I might
8:48
switch my side to be honest with you. So just a good fight target
8:50
right out of the gates. You don't want to see this fight score one
8:54
hundred and ten and not have it, So this one, I'd say.
8:56
There's a lot of fights I like, but it's top five fight for me
8:58
for sure. Yeah, I mean I could I throw it to you first
9:01
for a reason because I didn't have a strong lead Big Marley, and I
9:05
don't like I lead Coast out with you just because I think the wrestling upside
9:09
is there. Like if someone does get four takedowns six minutes of control time,
9:13
I feel like it has to be on the coast to side. He's
9:16
still powerful. I like the leg kicks, but there's no confident take.
9:18
I was on Coasta all week, but the line is only shrunk a couple
9:22
or April twenty nine, four days ago minus one fifty three was Coasta.
9:26
Now we say not minus one nineteen. So I've been on Costa most of
9:31
the week without a strong take, but seeing the line go the other way,
9:35
I didn't love to see Boras a little better finishing prop two hundred savings
9:39
for Boras, but just a bunch. But if you leave a two hundred
9:43
dollars in your lineup or three hundred, you can maybe eliminate a thirty dupe
9:48
lineup to a fifteen or something little like that. Which, if you're telling
9:50
me that's the case, you're splitting half your dupes just because you went Boras
9:54
over Costa. I think that's definitely the sharp side a certain lineups. So
9:58
to be honest, these are a couple fights on this card. I don't
10:01
care really where my ownership lands on this. I want a decent amount of
10:05
Boat, But if I had forty percent Coaster and twenty percent Boras, or
10:09
if I had forty percent Boras or twenty percent Costa, I'd be fine with
10:13
either as long as I like my other stuff. So not a strong take
10:16
lean on either side, but I do like this fight. Eighty two hundred
10:20
and eight K like. I like this fight way more than although Martinez went
10:24
talking DFS, which is right there in the mid tier as well, so
10:28
I'm definitely gonna have plenty of this fight to start it off, and playing
10:31
these guys like these guys can put up one ten the winner a first round
10:33
knockout score one ten, one point fifteen. It's a lot easier when you
10:37
play one of these fighters to leave money on the table and they can outscore
10:41
some of these high nine K guys. They just have bad moneyline equity,
10:46
but should be a fun fight to kick it off. So I'm with you
10:48
a slightly costa, but I could have more Borjas than I wouldn't be surprised
10:52
in DFS. Keep it moving. Next fight on the card Ismail bomb being
10:56
taken on Vince Pachelle. This fight I was supposed to take place November third,
11:01
I believe November fourth of last year, bomb Fie missed weight so the
11:07
fight got scrapped. We get it this week. Everyone did make weight,
11:09
actually except Gome's made weight too, just under the weight, so it got
11:13
canceled. But otherwise every fighter made weight, so we should be good to
11:16
go. Bombfing one of the biggest favorites on the card at minus six hundred
11:20
old man Vince Pachelle plus four twenty five. It's fits minus one thirty five
11:24
to finish Bomb Fieen plus one ten Pachelle plus five twenty five. Okay,
11:31
we have his Bombfim's ownership a little higher than I expected, and I still
11:35
don't even love bomb theme. Like I like Patrina Moore for one hundred more.
11:39
I liked Schelle Pereira more for three hundred more. I like Oral Buy
11:41
more for three hundred less at ownership, I like Barbosa more for four hundred
11:46
less. I like Pantosia more in the main event, et cetera. So
11:50
I have Bomb femus underweights, especially at this ownership we had like thirty,
11:54
I wouldn't be surprised if it was like the mid twenties. Yeah, I
11:58
still I still think he's a He definitely has a path to the optimal.
12:03
The lower his ownership is, the more I've interest in chalkier lineups. But
12:07
again I prefer others in the vacuum up top. Vince Michelle slows fights down,
12:11
like if second round Bomb theme finished might not be enough, Like you
12:15
want one ten for ninety three hundred on this card. So yeah, I'm
12:18
not gonna have as much bomb Theme in chalk your lineups. I think he's
12:22
fine. He has the path for sure to put up a big score,
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though, I think once you cap him at his ownership determines kind of what
12:28
my play is. Vince Bachelle, I'm not really playing these big dogs in
12:33
twenty entry in below, but maybe you can talk me into one of them.
12:37
Yeah. I really don't like this fight that much either, and I
12:39
probably will lower bond Theme's ownership a little bit. I had ownership done before
12:45
the Gomese cancelation, and then I kind of rushed it after that, so
12:48
I'll updated again before these fights start. But I could definitely see me lowering
12:52
that one because I really just don't like him that much. Compared to the
12:54
people priced around him, he is like plus one ten or maybe it was
12:58
mine one ten inside the distance plus plus one plus one ten inside the distance.
13:03
I mean it's pretty solid, but I just like the other people around
13:07
him to finish more. The round one prop is bad relative plus three fifteen.
13:11
A lot of those are like the plus one fifth, so that's the
13:13
big difference, but plus one ten isn't bad. Yeah, I mean at
13:16
ninety three hundred. We probably want round one, yeah, because he is
13:22
gonna be our striker, where Pachelle is a wrestler. But he's forty one
13:26
years old now, so I really don't think he can chain wrestle three rounds
13:31
of wrestling together anymore. Maybe he can have one or two rounds of success
13:35
steal a win on the scorecards that way, And if Pachelle wins, I
13:39
do expect him to score more than ten x, but I just don't expect
13:41
him to win. If he has wrestling success in the first round, I
13:45
think he'll slow down and then bond Fim will start picking him apart on the
13:48
feet, and I think bon Fim will get a knockout at some point the
13:52
more Pichelle slows down anyways, But if Pachelle does have three rounds on him,
13:56
I still just like Bonfime to be the overall better fighter and win this
14:00
on the feet. But at ninety three hundred, we're gonna need an early
14:03
knockout, and I like the other people around the more so I I'm not
14:07
gonna fade him, but I can see me having like ten percent bonbfme something
14:11
like that. I will be low on him, and then Pachelle not a
14:13
guy I'm really interested in either, But with one hundred and fifty lineups,
14:18
I'd be okay getting you know, five ten percent of him as well,
14:22
just because he's super low. He helps you get up to that nine k
14:24
range where you want to get up to, and he is he's gonna have
14:28
to wrestle if he's gonna win this fight. So don't like it overall,
14:31
but I can see me in the five to fifteen percent range on either one
14:35
of them. Really, but Bonfieme would be my preferred play of the two
14:37
because I do think he gets a knockout, but I think he gets a
14:39
later knockout rather than early. Yeah, no, I agree with you,
14:43
And again I think we want early knockouts at ninety three hundred, which is
14:46
why i'm low ron bomb theme. He's definitely my preferred play though, and
14:50
again I would be surprised to say twenty five percent ownership. And if that's
14:54
the case, it chop your lineups in hers SEG lineups, Pantosia lineups.
15:00
Yeah, I guess there's only so many Chalky fighters on the car. Just
15:03
when you're a cult of ownership, when you're eating three four guys that are
15:05
twenty five plus percent own mixing in a bomb theme there, I think would
15:09
be how I do it. I agree with you. If I playing one
15:11
to fifty, which I am in that three dollars, I'm gonna have Vince
15:15
Michelle in there now twenty entry and below. Lately, I've been doing like
15:18
the twenty teams in the big dollars something like that, so I can cross
15:22
off, like what I write in the slate plan et cetera. I've donated
15:24
too much money matching that large feel over the years, been almost first plenty
15:30
of times, which would have paid big. If you're not first, especially
15:33
how I play, you are not getting a lot of money back. So
15:35
I chilled on that. I probably won't. I won't get to Vince Michelle
15:39
in twenty lineups one fifty. I'll play some, to be honest. The
15:43
only guy I might cross off in one fifty is Potaria. I just think
15:46
he gets Ashley worked by Pereira in the first round. Maybe Paul Craig,
15:52
but I don't know. Like that dude has burned me plenty of times in
15:54
his life too, Like he can definitely to lamall Hill fight don't remind me.
15:58
So Yeah, Michelle would be. It will be in my one to
16:02
fifty pool twenty entry in below. I can't really get to there. I
16:06
prefer other live dogs. Let's touch on this quick before you get to the
16:08
next fight. Good question home cooking. I mean, judges are bad period.
16:14
Everyone knows it. They're bad in Brazil, They're bad everywhere. But
16:18
when you know at least they're bad, they will favor in a close fight,
16:22
a close decision, they will lean the Brazilian more than likely, Like
16:26
the crowd's gonna be all of brazil is Does that go on your capping at
16:30
all? I mean I already like a decent amount of Brazilian fighters, but
16:33
any thoughts on that. Yeah, Actually, Brazil is like the one place
16:37
where I really like targeting home country fighters. I mean, the judges are
16:41
always gonna suck, but you gotta have the loudest crowds out there rooting on
16:45
the Brazilians and like cussing out everybody else. And these Brazilians are savages.
16:51
They'll go out there and poison a non Brazilian. So I always lean Brazilians
16:56
in Brazil. And there have been cards where every single Brazilion has won,
16:59
So it wouldn't if that happens again, like the Aldo fight later that came
17:03
into my capping for him. I think you can slightly favor him in that
17:07
matchup because it's in Brazil. Anywhere else in the world, I think you
17:10
get a favorite Martinez. I mean, we'll get there, but yeah,
17:14
Brazilians in Brazil, I always try to get Yeah, no, I agree
17:17
with you, and I like a lot of Brazilians to hope that answers that
17:19
question. And Pete, that is geeks appreciate you hanging out. Very funny
17:25
right there. Let's keep it moving. Next fight on the card, Diana
17:27
Barbosa taking on Ernesta Kara skates A minus two thirty Barbosa plus one ninety five.
17:33
Kara skates Arnessa's way easy. Let's go plus one ninety five Ornessas fights
17:38
plus one thirty five to finish, a lot of the finish equity on the
17:42
Barbosa side plus one seventy Ernessa plus six fifty. So you see plus one
17:48
forty or plus one thirty five to finish. Not something you love, especially
17:52
the eighty nine hundred fighter a lot better finishing odds at plus one seventy.
17:57
But when you dig into this fight and you look at all ownership. I
18:00
mean, I like this fight a lot. At ownership, Barbosa's going to
18:03
be one of the lowest own in the top tier. It's a class of
18:07
styles. Barbosa wants it on the mat. If she gets it on the
18:10
match, you should have a big advantage. You can get takedowns control time.
18:14
She can get one hundred and ten in a decision at low ownership,
18:18
which is always appealing. Plus one seventy inside the distance isn't bad at all.
18:22
So add in finishing equity to that big boy upside now kas Katzy Ernesta,
18:27
whatever it is. On the other side, she's a striker. She
18:30
landed what one hundred and eighty six significant strikes or something absolutely insane on the
18:36
Contender Series Fight Last Fight one hundred eighty four to one sixty eight, wins
18:40
a split decision, like if she keeps it on the feet, she can
18:44
easily score over or she could easily land over one hundred significant strikes and for
18:48
this price, and I mean on this card, really I just want to
18:52
win for a dog, Like it wouldn't completely shock me if no dogs win
18:56
and or nested by decision or neested decision. Low scoring fifties enough or a
19:02
core krollly Nicola Kaevich in a decision loss scores enough. Obviously I'm gonna act
19:07
like we do need dog wins, but it's not a card where I think
19:10
you need one hundred in every single spot since it is tough down here.
19:14
I like both sides of this fight. I really don't care who I am
19:17
more of. I want to be overweight on both. Though Barbosa gets takedowns
19:21
upsides there for low ownership arnessa. She's one of my favorite dogs, relatively
19:26
speaking. Keeps it on the feet, clear path. How do you see
19:27
it? Yes, striker versus grappler Matchell, I don't love it, but
19:33
I think I like it more than the field because if Barbosa wins this fight,
19:37
it's gonna have to come on the ground, and it could come with
19:41
lots of control time, or it could come with a submission, and we
19:44
would really like that submission to come early. But like I was trying to
19:48
think about her film, and I don't even remember her wrestling at this point,
19:52
so I might have to go back and figure out how good of a
19:53
wrestler she is. But once she gets into the ground, I think she
19:56
could dominate the fight there, but if she can't get it to the I
20:00
think that Kara Katy is just gonna piece her up on the feet, and
20:03
if she does win, she'll score more than ten X unless she's spending time
20:06
on her back. Like if it's a split decision, half the fights on
20:08
the ground, half the fight standing, then neither one of them will score
20:11
very well. But I do think that if either of them has their way,
20:15
they can break this slate, So I'm fine with either one of them
20:19
as my preferred play. Right now. I would say Barbosa is, but
20:23
I just like other favorites so much more that I could see Karakady being in
20:26
my single entry just because I have to move down somewhere so solid fight to
20:32
target. But at the same time, I could see the winner scoring sixty
20:33
five points. So I just don't know what the heck I'm gonna do with
20:37
this one. I think with my MMM, i'd be more willing to have
20:41
it in like half or more of my lineups, But with twenty or less
20:44
handbuilds, I feel like I'm gonna be clicking on other fights more than this
20:47
one, but I'll still get exposure to both sides. But give me Barbosa
20:51
to win by submission. Yeah, that all makes sense. I know I'm
20:56
gonna be way more exposed to this fight than I want to be. It's
21:00
just it's one of the lower owned owners, one of the lowest owned combined
21:03
ownerships on the card, and you clear pass are both on the ground.
21:07
If she wins, ker Katie on the feats and she's a dog, that
21:11
is volume on the feet for a live dog is all I need to hear
21:15
on this card. So yeah, low level warman's mma. I'm overexposed.
21:19
Not really too much new, but at least i'll know if my night's over
21:22
really early, and I won't be surprised if I have one of these two
21:26
on my team. Yeah, we'll see, John Kelly, what's going on?
21:32
Go Collect, appreciate you stopping it as well. Light Button, We
21:34
do appreciate a lot. Go Collect. Hope you're doing well. Join the
21:38
best ball street smashing in DFS. Let's keep it going. Next fight on
21:42
the card and children should be good. Mauricio Hoofy taking on Jamie Mlarkey.
21:48
Hoofy minus one ten Malarkey plus one eighty minus two fifty for this fight to
21:53
finish Hoofy minus one forty Jamie Malarkey plus three ninety. Okay, we have
22:00
ownership. Actually, I'll say this one thirty one for Hoofy, nineteen for
22:04
Malarkey. Again, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hoofy get a little more
22:08
eighty five or eighty four hundred eighty four hundred with minus one forty inside the
22:15
distance and minus two ten money line and a lot of people like it feels
22:18
clear his day in this fight, Larky's been knocked out five times all mine.
22:22
Hoofi's wins are by knockout, Hoofy by knockout minus one twenty five Hoofy
22:29
in the first round plus one eighty five if he wins. There's big upside
22:33
there Malarky, as his chin has been cracked multiple times. If I think
22:37
it's gonna be like thirty five seventeen or something. Though Mlarkey's a game theory,
22:42
play Sheets is watching this if he watches at least on playback or something,
22:47
I think Malarkey's gonna be one of sheets his favorite plays this week.
22:49
I know I'm gonna have a decent amount more than I want to. I
22:52
think Malarkey's one of the best game theory. Leverage plays on the slates because
22:57
people will gravitate to Hoofy. He stands out in the mid tier. He's
23:02
favored as a favored to finish as a big favor compared to everyone else in
23:06
that mid tier. People will land on him, no doubt about it.
23:10
He's the pick by knockout. But I don't always translate my picks to dfs.
23:15
I probably will be more over overweight on' a Larky. I still want
23:18
a bunch of Hoofie too. I think it's solid chalk. It's about how
23:22
you play them in certain lineups. But one of the best fights at Target,
23:25
I think, yeah, I like this fight both sides of it.
23:30
I am picking Hoofy to get the wins because Malarkey's got a questionable chin and
23:34
hoof he throws hard, and I like the angles that he throws at too,
23:37
So he could just hit Malarkey with something he doesn't even see coming and
23:41
he's and it's gonna be hard when he does hit him. So I think
23:45
ultimately hoof He's gonna get the knockout. But for DraftKings, I'm gonna put
23:48
a max on him because he is a striker. I don't expect him to
23:52
go out there and wrestle. He's also not a high volume striker, so
23:55
it's really ko or bust for DraftKings. I think he could win a decision
24:00
striking, but it's not gonna help us on DraftKings. So Hoofie's odds to
24:04
win in round one or two is plus one ten, so that equals out
24:11
to be about forty seven and a half percent. I'll probably max him at
24:15
forty seven percent, and that still seems too high for me, but it
24:18
is the mid range where I need to be squeezing fighters in UH. And
24:22
then if he doesn't get the knockout, Malarkey's Malarkey's gonna be the favorite to
24:26
win this fight. I think he can strike in this fight as long as
24:30
he's not getting knocked out. I think he could win a striking match.
24:33
He could knock Hoofy out too, but Malarkey's edge is gonna be on the
24:36
ground, and if he wins, I expect him to score more than ten
24:38
X with one hundred plus point upside. So I can see me having more
24:44
Malarky than than Hoofy just because of the pricing. If I'm trying to squeeze
24:48
in AUP Patrino or a Pereira, I'm probably not gonna be able to get
24:52
a whole lot of Hoofye. So Malarkey's an underdog I'm very interested in.
24:56
Now that the Gomi's fight is off, I lost one of the underdogs I
25:00
picking the win. So this is one where I was like kind of going
25:02
back and forth on it. But I was just more impressed with the knockout
25:07
up side of Hoofy and that's why I picked him. But no strong feeling.
25:08
So I'll get exposure to both sides, but with the ownership that I
25:12
have it at, I could see my leverage side being malarchy in this one
25:17
man spot exactly pretty much what I said, You're on the same moat.
25:19
I love it. Last thing I will add, Hoofye is taking money throughout
25:22
the week. I mean since open throughout the week as well open minus one
25:26
fifty five Hoofy now all the way to minus two ten was minus one seventy
25:32
three just a couple of days ago as well. So our picks Hoofye.
25:36
But as you guys know, if you guys tune into the show almost every
25:38
week, it's not necessarily who we pick. We're playing game theory. We're
25:41
playing a sport against all these other humans, trying to win as much money
25:45
as we can when we do win. I think Malarkey is probably the better
25:49
side. If Malarkey wins, you have a lot better chance of seeing less
25:53
than ten dupes on the optimal than if Hoofee does. For the easiest way
25:57
to put it in my opinionat though, I will have plenty no doubt about
26:02
that. Stick a roll in Big Mode League Dakar close wakeem silva plus one
26:07
or minus one eighty five close plus one sixty silva minus one fifty for this
26:11
fight to finish close plus one forty five silva plus two eighty. I mean
26:18
another fight that's gonna be pretty low owned at eighty seven hundred seventy five hundred
26:22
like dr Kar close. Solid money line not even that great, I guess
26:27
solid money line for the price, slid inside the distance for the price.
26:32
But he has Pantosha for one hundred dollars more than the main event. That's
26:34
gonna get way more ownership. It's hoofy you who just talked about for three
26:37
hundred less who's gonna get more ownership. Brito is two hundred less. He's
26:41
expected to finish at minus one oh five. He's gonna get more ownership.
26:45
Then you can go to like the oral Blides of the world, et cetera.
26:48
At nine k, they're gonna get more ownership. So just naturally,
26:52
dr kar Close can't get much ownership. He's minus one eighty five. He's
26:56
plus one forty five inside the distance, there's a path I will be playing
27:00
your car close in chalk your lineups. If I'm fading the main events,
27:03
I probably won't play your Car close. I can eat more chalk if I'm
27:07
playing ERSG, hoofy, etc. Maybe that's where I played your Car close.
27:11
Also easier to lead money on the table. Well, keep Silva.
27:15
It's a live dog without too many live dogs on this card, so I'll
27:19
naturally have some. He's got big power, good inside the disiness profit plus
27:23
two eighty. I just think your Car Close is better. And he's the
27:26
minute winner. So if Silva doesn't land a big one, he probably loses
27:32
more than likely. Close will probably wins and scores ninety, which isn't enough.
27:36
But when he wins, when you win, you want all the money.
27:40
Close can give you a chance to win all the money by yourself.
27:41
What do you see? Yeah, don't love this fight, but I just
27:45
agree with everything that you said. I see Close being our minute winner in
27:49
this one, or a more likely knockout guy, which is probably what we
27:52
need here from him at eighty seven hundred dollars. But if Silva wins this
27:56
fight, it's got to be a knockout or submission, and he'll score well
28:00
if that happens. I just don't see. I don't think that's likely,
28:04
and I don't see him being the minute winner in this one unless Close just
28:07
doesn't show up or something like that. But eighty seven hundred dollars for Close
28:12
is just a lot to pay, and even at his ceiling in a decision,
28:18
I don't know that he's Yeah, So overall, I won't be targeting
28:23
this fight, but they both do have have paths to the optimal lineup,
28:26
so I won't be exing them out either. Both of them have only hit
28:32
with their current prices. Both of them have only hit more than ten x
28:36
in half of their wins, so I don't love that. So I'll probably
28:41
just use this for an enemy only type of fight, and then no chance
28:45
is going to be in my single entry, but with twenty or less,
28:48
maybe I'll get a little bit of Close, And like, if I'm struggling
28:51
to find dogs, maybe that's how Silva makes his way into my lineups that
28:53
way. But I just I want to avoid this one with my handbuilds and
28:56
just leave it for Emmy. The lineups that I don't even know or put
29:00
together, maybe I can get something lucky in there if Close does pull it
29:03
out. But yeah, overall fight, I'm not looking to target. Give
29:06
me Close to win a decision though, and probably score seventy five points.
29:11
Yeah, no, I'm not arguing with anything you said. Like I like
29:15
that Barbosa fight more the Karrisca tape Barbosa fight that's expected to go the distance,
29:21
where this is slightly expected to finish, but it's going to be low
29:25
owned. Close will probably be the lowest owner in the upper tier, if
29:27
not second lowest or something like that. Beyond the sindow. Silva's gonna get
29:32
some ownership just because you need dogs, which I think makes Close my preferred
29:36
play. But twelve hundred dollars savings plus one sixty for seventy five hundred is
29:41
really good win equity relative to a lot of these other dogs below, so
29:45
dangerous live. I'll be mixing in both. I don't love in the vacuum,
29:48
though I agree if I make one team, yeah, unless I just
29:53
want to try and solo ship, I'd maybe go close, but yeah,
29:57
probably would not play either. This fight just in single entry with one team
30:02
on the line. Nice fight on the card. This one should be fun.
30:06
Mack Beck Oral by taking on Elvis Brenner minus two fifty. Oral by
30:10
plus two ten is Elvis Brenner this fight plus one hundred to finish, so
30:15
it's minus one time. I always go bet online for everyone that asks like
30:18
it's minus one fifteen at DraftKings right now always. Price shop came down from
30:22
minus one ten to plus one hundred, though, and bet online or by
30:26
plus two hundred inside the distance Brenner plus three fifty, So both of the
30:32
inside the distance props on both guys went up a little bit too, So
30:36
some money came in on the over, which is interesting. Orbi can still
30:40
get there in the over. I'll throw it right to you on this fight,
30:41
though, Orbi has so many pass to a big score. So strong
30:45
is wrestling and Elvis Brenner, I don't know if if you know Elvis Brenner
30:51
personally or something, but man, they grew on fight. You were all
30:53
over it. He comes into the UFC against Tucky Goff too plus four seventy
30:57
plus four seventy fight, he's cash is some big boy dogs plus two tens
31:03
a solid dog. Can he get it done again? I like this fight,
31:04
no doubt about that. Yeah, I like this fight a good amount,
31:08
but I am picking oral By in this one. I just think he's
31:12
our more likely minute winner with his wrestling ability, and he landed seven takedowns
31:17
and two rounds in his last fight, And those are just fighters that I
31:19
love to target on DraftKings, the guys that you don't even care if they
31:22
go to a decision or not and they can still score one hundred and twenty
31:26
plus points. Those are the guys I like to call DraftKings gold. And
31:29
I could see oral By having that kind of upside in the UFC. But
31:33
this is also a fight where you're not safe on the ground against BRender.
31:36
Brenner's is very dangerous with the submissions. He's got knockout upside as well,
31:41
and if Brenner wins this fight, I expect him to score more than ten
31:42
x and possibly one hundred plus because I think it's more likely a finish if
31:47
he wins. But with oral By he could finish the fight too and score
31:51
well. He could also score the one hundred and twenty in the decision,
31:53
so he's going to be closer to a core play for me. I like
31:56
orle By a good amount, and then Brenner. He'll He'll be in most
32:00
of my non oral By lineups, but I feel like this is one where
32:06
I'm starting my single entry with oral By rather than looking for other favorites and
32:10
then going down to a Brenner. I really like oral By this weekend,
32:14
but yeah, good fight to target both sides of I could see me having
32:16
this in like seventy five percent of my entire lineups. I agree with Yeah,
32:22
I don't really have much more to add. I mean oral By a
32:23
twenty six. I don't I try and limit the hype on some guys.
32:28
Now, I don't like go out there second fight in the UFC. This
32:30
is a world champion. That's why that's a stretch. But man, the
32:34
dude looks to have the goods, like if he can manhandle guys like he
32:37
did last fight on the ground. From what I've seen, he can strike
32:42
two. That's the thing though, Like I think he's gonna be fighting taking
32:45
Brenner down, like he'll trust himself to be safe, stay heavy on top,
32:51
but I don't know for sure. Like Brenner really good grappling, he
32:54
can catch something there. If oral By a success on the feet, do
32:58
you think there's a chance that he doesn't even getting into the mats, because
33:00
if so, that's how this fight. Orbi can still knock him out,
33:05
but even his third round knockout, a second round knockout might not be enough.
33:08
Like I want to. I want wrestling for Orbi is why I'm playing
33:12
them. So what are your thoughts on that. I do expect Oralby to
33:15
wrestle, not like the entire time like he did in his last fight,
33:19
but I do think it's gonna be in his game plan. And I don't
33:22
like if you told me he was not gonna get any takedowns on this fight,
33:25
then you change that from core play to underweight for sure. Yeah,
33:30
so yeah, I get I guess that's a tough call. But I also
33:34
put it as a four star for that reason rather than a five star.
33:38
But it is closer to a five star fight than a three star fight for
33:42
me, Yeah, it makes a lot of sense to me. I like
33:45
this fight a lot as well. I'll be playing Elvis Brenner as one of
33:46
the dogs down there too, since in a win he has a lot of
33:51
upside. He's beat a lot of good fighters. He's game like a lot
33:53
of fighters out of that camp. I'm with you, though, Orbi looks
33:57
like a stud. I ain't picking against him yet, keep it rolling.
34:00
Next fight on the card, one that'll be low owned, one that I
34:05
do not have much interest in. The second of two women's fight on this
34:08
card. He has been Lasendo taking on Carolina colvid Kaevitch minus four hundred lu
34:14
Sindo or plus three hundred is cold Kaevich. This fights plus one fifty five
34:19
to finish, and all of that finish equity on the Lusindo side of plus
34:22
one forty colda Kaevitch plus sixteen fifty inside the distance. Okay, big Marley,
34:29
I was going back and forth on this one. So we have Listendo
34:31
at eighteen percent, which is the second lowest in the upper tier behind your
34:36
car Close. I definitely think that is going to be the case if you
34:39
play Lucindo or if I play Lusendo, it'll be in chalk your lineups.
34:44
However, in a vacuum, it is so much harder for me to click
34:46
ninety two hundred Lucindo than Pereira for four hundred, more Oral by two hundred,
34:52
last Pantosia for a last like you go down the list. I don't
34:57
know. Talk to me. Is there takedown upside in this one? Carolina?
35:00
Though? Is she even if she wins? I will take that score
35:05
any day of the week. But she scored ninety one oh four like she
35:07
scored well or past three decision wins, throwing a ton of volume. At
35:10
this point in her career, she's so well gone Lucinda. What twenty two
35:15
colda Kaevich like thirty six? All the age advantage on the Lucindo side,
35:19
the speed on the Lucindo side, the power, the danger like everything is
35:22
on the Lucindo side. But we see plus three hundred dogs win all the
35:28
time in MMA. If I do pick a dog on a card I don't
35:30
like, many dogs might as well go to the woman's MMA feels like dogs
35:35
happen every single week with good volume. And I mentioned earlier, just say
35:38
all favorites win, all thirteen favorites. Carolina's got to be one of the
35:42
favorites to be on the optimal as a dog in my opinion, just because
35:46
the volume she throws and this fight expecting go the distance. I'm not playing
35:50
it that way. I guess I'm saying that it's not the craziest STAF week.
35:54
If you want to go Pantosia or seg I'm not gonna do that personally,
35:58
But yeah, big favorites. I'll be playing some of both fighters,
36:02
prefer Cola Kievich at the discount, but I'll play Lucindo in chalk your lineups
36:07
because I do think she has a path like bomb Fime. What do you
36:09
see? Yeah, I agree, Lucendo's an ownership play. If you have
36:14
a chunky lineup, you want to get a little bit different, then you
36:16
throw Lucendo in. She does have takedown upside. She landed like four takedowns
36:21
against Brogan Walker didn't help her at all. She still only scored seventy three
36:23
Draftings points, but KK was taken down five times by Yanzione and a striker.
36:30
She's taken down twice by Gomez war as like, I could definitely see
36:36
Lutendo taking her down multiple times in this fight, but at ninety two hundred
36:39
dollars, I just don't know how Lucendo's gonna make the optimal lineup over the
36:44
people that she's priced around. So I'm I'm mostly gonna avoid her, and
36:47
then KK is my preferred play because she's only seven k she is a high
36:52
paced striker. She could also mix in a takedown or two of her own.
36:57
And KK has nine you see wins, eight of them are decision wins,
37:01
and she averages almost eighty nine DraftKings points in her wins. Crazy I
37:06
expect the same thing here if she is able to get it done. And
37:08
like you mentioned, if all favorites win, KK is gonna be on the
37:10
Opena lineup. So I agree, I'm on the KK side for DraftKings,
37:15
but she's on the way out, Lusendo's on the way up. I'm picking
37:19
Lusendo to win the fight, but I just don't see I won't get any
37:22
Lusendo exposure in like ten or last twenty. I doubt I get her in
37:25
twenty less, but in one fifty ear I'll keep her in my pool,
37:29
but it would be more of an ownership play, just trying to get a
37:31
little bit different from these other top tier plays on the slate. Yeah,
37:36
I think KK is a lot more live than Vegas does. Yeah, I'll
37:39
probably have. I'm gonna keep Listendro in my twenty pool because I know I'm
37:43
gonna be playing ersag hoofys on these popular dogs. But I'm gonna camp for
37:47
probably at twenty percent. If I got zero, I would be perfectly fine
37:52
with that. I have a feeling I probably won't because I do like mixing
37:55
and fighters like that, because I want first place with few people. If
38:00
Lucino puts up one to twenty, you know you have very few people that
38:05
you have to beat. Courthole a couple of weeks ago, was she eight
38:07
percent own after the first fight? Ninety two percent of the field, they're
38:09
pretty much drawing stone dead. Then you don't even need the nuts because you're
38:15
only competing as eight percent of thirty thousand or whatever it may be. Do
38:19
the math. It's not guaranteed that someone's gonna have the nuts. Oh what
38:22
was the other one? Freaking who was Chalkboy? Eighty three hundred guy that
38:27
fought low owned sixty nine hundred guy that just lost last Yeah, yeah,
38:30
yeah, gets rocked in the first round. So fifty whatever percent dead leveragely
38:36
game theory plays seven percent all in like seven percent of teams. You don't
38:40
need the stone nuts. Then you're competing in so many less people, the
38:44
deuces are way less, et cetera. So that's the reason I'll be playing
38:46
Lucindo. I think take them upside is there. And I also Carolina just
38:52
pushes the pace, she throws more volume. I think she forces Lucindo to
38:55
do something. If you want to try and talk yourself into that side.
39:00
Only playing one team, five teams, probably ten teams, I doubt I
39:04
get there myself either. But for those out there eighteen or what is it,
39:07
twenty five out man, twenty five bucks is up there this week,
39:10
twenty five dollars and you're pretending that you're burning it. But you want if
39:15
you win, you want one hundred K plus. I don't think Lucindos are
39:17
craziest played there. Just know what you're getting yourself into. One hundred might
39:22
not be enough. One hundred might not be enough. Let's keep it going.
39:24
Next fight on the card, this one should be fun too. Joe
39:27
Anderson Brito Jack Shore minus one eighty five Brito plus one sixty is Jack Shore.
39:32
This fights minus one seventy five to finish came down a little bit too.
39:37
It was minus two hundred all week until yesterday morning, and that was
39:42
a little I will admit I was a little surprised to see minus two hundred,
39:45
especially with Jack Shore Brito minus one oh five inside the distance Jack Shore
39:50
plus three eighty Another fight in the mid tier. I'm gonna have some eighty
39:53
five hundred Brito seventy seven hundred Jack Shore. Jack Shores as live as any
39:58
dog is in my opinion, and he has grappling upside, wrestling upside even
40:02
in a decision win. You will take that from Jack Short seventy seven hundred
40:07
more than likely Brito grown ass man strong, slightly favored to finish at minus
40:12
one oh five. You can leave money on the table easier playing Britail,
40:16
just like hoofy, et cetera. The Coast to the Borjas fight another mid
40:21
tier fight I'm gonna play. We'll get to later mid tier fight the last
40:23
one all the Martinez. I don't like that one much, so I'll be
40:27
playing these fights instead. In the mid tier man I preferred play I think
40:31
probably is the Savings with eight hundred. But I've gone back and forth,
40:36
and I just think Brito might just be too big, too fast, too
40:38
strong. Like you're in a bar fight and you're looking at both these dudes.
40:43
You're picking Brito. So he's dangerous but short skill. How do you
40:45
see this fight? Yeah, I'm on the Shore side. Actually, Brito,
40:51
he's definitely got the knockout upside. I don't know that Shore has any
40:54
knockout upside here, but a fifteen minute striking match, I could see Shore
40:59
winning that. Brito also has pretty good wrestling, but I think Shore is
41:02
a better wrestler. I think he's a better grappler. I think he's got
41:06
better control. So I'm on the underdog here. And Shore averages ninety eight
41:09
DraftKings points in his wins. He's never scored less than eighty seven in a
41:14
win. So if you're telling me we're gonna get eighty seven or more at
41:16
seventy seven hundred dollars, I want to load up on that lot. And
41:20
then on the Brito side. He's got upside two. But I just like
41:23
other favorites more so I'll probably be a little bit underweight to him, and
41:28
I will be overweight to sure. He's my favorite underdog on the card.
41:31
Not that I'm confident in him winning, but I am confident that he's gonna
41:35
score well if he does win, and I think he has a clear path
41:37
to victory on the ground, not clear. I don't think it's gonna be
41:38
an easy time, but I just love his wrestling and grappling pace. So
41:44
give me Shore on this one. Yeah, no, it makes sense.
41:46
His round one against Makwan was so bad last fight, like Mack One's dangerous
41:52
in round one and then dies, so sure finish him in round two.
41:54
But man, if Brito can keep any pace, he just so fit.
41:58
Like the entries sure have to be so good and so technical. Although it's
42:01
Brito's physical strength advantaged Shore coming up to one forty five, he did the
42:07
last fight fun a lot at one thirty five. Like Brito's he's grown,
42:09
He's strong, he can just toss you off. I wanted to go Shore,
42:14
and I still very well and might have more short than Brito because of
42:16
the price, but I ended up. I ended up taking Brito, and
42:22
Brito's taking money. The past couple of days, Short got all the way
42:23
down to minment or to plus one seventeen. I believe that's Monday, April
42:29
thirtieth and now plus one sixty. So some late money has been on Brito.
42:32
This fight opened minus one twenty plus one hundred for Jack Shore or for
42:37
Brito. Excuse me, minus one twenty plus one hundred for Brito got Shore
42:42
plus one seventeen a couple of days ago, now plus one sixty A fight
42:45
I will have for sure, though, And if you tell me Short wins
42:49
and you tell me Brito wins, I do think sure at that price,
42:52
Tag has a better chance at the optimum, by decent bit than Brito,
42:57
which is kind of what you're saying right there. Yeah, I actually think
42:59
like if these guys fought one hundred times, the Shore wins would average more
43:02
than the Brito wins. Yeah, I like it. Decision. Yeah.
43:07
The only thing is you gotta be a little nervous close decision. You're in
43:12
Brazil. That's the only problem right there. But and probably not a seventy
43:16
seven hundred dog on the winner a loser on the winner, unless you're putting
43:20
up a dan Argueta performance. If he was able to survive another five minutes,
43:24
but I don't really see that in this one in a loss, like
43:28
unless Brito catches him with the sub which could happen as well like he did
43:31
against Jonathan Pierce. We'll keep it going punny fights. As you what,
43:36
one, two, three, four, five fights left on the card.
43:38
A lot of big favorites. We're gonna talk about three big favorites these next
43:43
three fights four two closely lined fights. My least favorite of these next three
43:49
fights Kyle Ohio Paul Craig minus six forty five is Kyo plus four to seventy
43:54
Is Paul Craig minus one seventy five for this fight to finish? Kyle minus
43:59
one four already Paul Craig plus six point fifty And I guess, like I'll
44:04
throw it to you on is Kyle gonna even wrestle? Like? Is he
44:07
gonna otherwise? He can beat Paul Craig on the feet, He can probably
44:12
knock him out. He can take as easy as path to victory. Paul
44:15
Craig can do some crazy things, man, because if he does wrestle,
44:19
he probably is fine, but probably is not as much as I feel confident.
44:23
Then if it just stays on the feet, at the end of the
44:25
day, I don't like this fight much relative to the Prayer fight. I
44:30
like what's his nuts v tour more that we're gonna talk about pantosia more.
44:36
I'm not gonna have much of this Kyo fight personally. Hope he wins scores
44:39
like ninety ninety five, which he's done a lot in his career. Yeah.
44:44
I like to fight more than you, but I don't think Brojo should
44:49
wrestle. I think he could and maybe could stay safe, but that's where
44:52
he puts himself in danger. Even if he is in top control, he
44:54
is not safe on the ground. But on the feet he should have a
44:59
clear I mean, I'd be shocked if he lost his fight on the feet
45:01
at all. Really, I don't even maybe Craig could knock him out.
45:05
He he just looks like he has power. He could throw some hard leg
45:07
kicks, but man, I'd be pretty shocked to see Craig knockout bra Hall
45:10
on the feet. Anyways. Maybe on the ground he couldet a TKO or
45:14
something like that, but Bralo's all he is minus one forty inside the distance.
45:19
That's pretty solid. I think he would most likely be a knockout if
45:22
that happens. But he had he had a knockdown in his last win,
45:25
and he only I mean, he scored crap, what was it? Where
45:30
are you at? Bro here? Is he scored sixty eight points in a
45:32
win with a knockdown. That's that's not great, especially if you're playing ninety
45:37
five hundred dollars. So I don't really love Braljo for DraftKings here because he's
45:42
so high priced and I don't think he should wrestle much. And then on
45:45
the other end, but I am picking him to win though. But on
45:47
the other end, Craig, he's my favorite sub seven k play on the
45:52
slate. He's got I believe, like nine UFC wins. Seven of them
45:59
he scored over ninety points, and if he's gonna win this fight, it's
46:01
gonna be a submission, and he's got a good chance of making it early
46:05
in scoring ninety plus points here. So I think that Craig has a much
46:07
better chance of breaking the slate. So he's probably my preferred play. But
46:14
but I don't know. I mean, it wouldn't shock me if I have
46:15
Bralo on my single entry, I guess, so I don't really have much
46:19
of a preferred play on this. I guess cool with either side, cool
46:22
fading it. I don't really care on this one too much, but I
46:24
think if I was bro host coach, I'd be telling him avoid the ground
46:28
at all costs and the cruise do. A win on the feet, even
46:31
if you don't knock him out, should be an easy win. But you're
46:34
not gonna score well on DraftKings. So maybe, right, maybe it's just
46:37
a better fight to fade. But there's no way I'm fading Craig at like
46:42
sixty seven hundred dollars because if he wins, I expect ninety plus points.
46:46
Yeah, I know I'm gonna fade this in twenty and trum below. It'll
46:49
definitely be scary. Most Paul Craig fights are scared. I just man,
46:53
Yeah, he's burned me enough. It's nothing. No Paul Craig win will
46:58
ever hurt as much as the Sweet Dreams loss when Paul Craig snapped his arms.
47:01
So the thing is Kyote ninety five hundred. It's a great segue Michelle
47:06
Perera's ninety six hundred. I mean, I think he walks through e or
47:09
Pitteria in this fight. Maybe in a minute I got him in the first
47:13
round. I think he puts up one ten plus. I just cannot click
47:16
Kyo's name over Michelle Pereira. If I'm spending up that much, I do
47:21
think you get a little discount. Let's go with Michelle Perera minus seven hundred
47:23
ehorre Peteria plus five hundred minus five hundred for this fight to finish. Michelle
47:29
Perera minus two sixty Pateria plus four fifty Pereira plus one twenty in round one.
47:36
Now, anytime I'm gonna see this guy's name, it's gonna give me
47:37
a little nightmares. Buddy hurt old j check to the body twenty seconds in
47:42
the fight. Needed that one minute bonus for the one hundred and thirty seven
47:45
K two way chop. Buddy got it done with milliseconds after round one.
47:50
So Tilting went for the net, playing around with his food. Tilting,
47:53
but he has looked so good at one eighty five, and I think he
47:58
absolutely walks through poteria. If you want some narrative, etc. Ihor sent
48:02
showgun off to the to the hills on the retirement fight and start celebrating.
48:07
Now this fight's in Brazil. People love themselves. Some showgun Michelle Pereira man
48:13
is gonna make this look easy. I think hurts him. I got him
48:15
by knockout if he wants to sew him, sure or or Michelle Pereira by
48:21
whatever you want. If you were wins, he's gonna score. There's no
48:25
doubt he's gonna score. I think it's him clutching Pereira with something. I
48:30
probably will still have zero in one hundred and fifty teams. Maybe not because
48:34
that post four to fifty inside of distance prop is interesting. Yeah, I
48:37
still I just think he gets cooked and Perera is not gonna be high enough
48:42
owned because he's ninety six hundred to make the leverage necessarily worth it. You're
48:45
playing them because if he wins, he's just gonna be on the optimal.
48:50
I don't know you mentioned Paul Craig was your favorite down there. If I
48:52
had to pick one, mind's Anthony Smith, who will talk about next fights.
48:55
But if Ehor wins, I'll argue he has the most upside of it
49:00
anybody down there, because I think it's kyoll early. But yeah, Michelle
49:02
Prayer, if you can fit on, it's hard to fit though. Yeah,
49:07
I'm gonna be Pereira pass on this one. I don't see me getting
49:10
to Poteria. If he wins, it's a first round knockout, but I
49:14
just don't think that's very likely at all. And I think he's gonna slow
49:17
down as the fight moves along. I think Prayer is the better striker.
49:21
I think Prayer is a better wrestler. I think Prayer is more durable.
49:22
I think Peyer has more power. So I just really like Pereira. Well.
49:27
The one thing I don't like is that he's ninety six hundred dollars.
49:30
He's got eight wins in the UFC. He's never scored more than one O
49:32
three. So if you tell me we're getting one fight, he should have
49:36
got one twenty fricking three. Fuck. But even if we get his matt,
49:40
If if we get one O three at ninety six hundred dollars, I
49:44
don't think that's gonna be enough. So I don't know if I'm gonna be
49:49
over under on Pereira. I'll get as much as I can afford, but
49:52
I'm not gonna make it a point to afford agree, And I'm okay getting
49:54
Bralljo instead of him too, just to get a little bit different. So
49:59
first tround knockout. As long as it's not in the first sixty seconds,
50:01
I can't guarantee that Prayer is gonna be on the optimal lineup a ninety six
50:05
hundred dollars, So I see me being slightly underweight to the field. But
50:09
when I was thinking of ownership, I was thinking he'd be closer to like
50:13
forty forty five percent. Then as I was doing it, I just couldn't
50:15
get there. So so I think he's gonna be I think he's gonna be
50:20
like thirty three. Yeah, I feel like it's right around where I put
50:22
it. That's actually exactly where I started at, and then I changed it
50:25
with the Gomy fight. I think, uh yeah, I think if he's
50:30
gonna be old. The dogs are so tough, like if you're playing them
50:34
all the way up, that means you probably want to punt or just no.
50:37
Almost all Praira plays have erth sag So if you want to get different
50:40
right there, Pantosia Pereira, figure it out. Not sure how much I'll
50:45
do it, but they're so like the dogs just aren't good down there,
50:49
like erse. If you go Prayer first, erth SEG's almost everyone second.
50:52
So the combination of that. And I'm not saying I'm gonna avoid that because
50:55
you still have other four spots. But what I'm trying to say is I
50:59
just be shocked to see Perera for on this card at ninety six hundred.
51:04
Yeah, I probably agree, And I was having that same trouble. I've
51:06
only built one. I have my shell in right now, but I was
51:09
trying to get to Perera in that lineup, and ild I couldn't find the
51:14
price, So I don't know if I had to go to like Patrino or
51:16
braljoh, But I was like, I was trying to figure out, all
51:19
right, what the heck do I change out here? I really want to
51:21
get this, you know, plus one twenty in round one in my lineup.
51:23
But then the more I looked at it, I was like, you
51:25
know, I don't have to have Pereira. Vitor could do the same thing.
51:30
Brajo could do the same thing. So yeah, I'm not gonna make
51:31
it a point. And I could see me being underweight to him, but
51:35
he's got the best metrics on the slate. With that plus one twenty in
51:39
round one, what's his inside the distance line? And it's two sixty to
51:45
forty sixty. I mean he's gonna walk through him. He's gonna he's just
51:50
like over a seventy percent chance of finishing the fight, So it's hard to
51:53
one time might not be enough. Like that's the thing is when I'm not
51:57
playing, if I'm underweight on Pereira, one time still might be enough.
52:00
Patrino can do it, or a Volley can do it, Pantosia can do
52:02
it. Like dogs all lose and then like even though it might be crazy,
52:08
but one hundred and twenty from Pereira is the highest on the highest score
52:12
on the slates, But every favorite wins still might not be on the optimal.
52:16
It's a pricing game, et cetera. Like if a couple others score
52:20
one twelve, one thirteen, like there's Pea can go out there and do
52:24
his job, get a first round finish like he did last time, and
52:28
still not even sniff the optimal, which is the point of not really playing
52:31
them. I don't know if I'll be overweight underweight. I care about other
52:35
exposures more. Five fifty percent Pereira perfect. I'm all in five fifty percent
52:39
Perierra, and I love everything. I'll roll with it and be scared,
52:43
but that's just my my thoughts. Yeah, and ninety six hundred dollars is
52:46
historically not a great price tag for DraftKings either, So another reason if you're
52:52
looking for reasons to get off of him in those great metrics, he could
52:54
just do what he's supposed to do and not make it. Yeah, hundred
52:58
percent. We got three fight left. Let's get to another big boy favorite
53:00
right here. Yeah, I appreciate everyone hanging out watching live, watching on
53:05
playback like Bud subscribed. Bud House is out a ton minus five fifty detour
53:09
Patrino plus four hundred Anthony Smith minus won eighty for this fight. To finish,
53:15
Patrino minus won forty inside the distance Anthony Smith plus six hundred. Pricing
53:21
on this fight Patrino ninety four hundred, Anthony Smith sixty eight hundred. I
53:27
said my favorite below seven k was Anthony Smith, and that's because I think
53:30
he's the most live. Because I still think there's some questions that need to
53:34
be answered on Patrino still young, his USC career hasn't fought the best of
53:38
the best. How's he going to handle a couple Anthony Smith low kicks?
53:42
I don't know I'm know cafkicksucker. Anthony Smith's been in there with the best
53:45
of the best, no doubt he's over the hill, over out of his
53:50
prime, but he still loves the game. It feels like as much as
53:52
everybody he's talking in the MMA is up in the booth with Dee Thomas and
53:58
stuff like, the dude is all in on MMA. He is a kind
54:02
of a smart IQ fighter. He has no chin. That's a big problem.
54:07
Takedown defense isn't great either. Patrino should be better wherever the fight goes,
54:13
but man, if Anthony Smith throw three hard low kicks in the first
54:15
minute, you ain't gonna want to hold minus five point fifty. So that's
54:19
kind of my thing there. With all that being said, I don't even
54:21
know if I'll play Smith in twenty entry and below. Again, I like
54:24
crossing off a lot of those big dogs. It feels like someone probably wins.
54:29
I hope not, and I'll mix in like the Cold Keevitch's Kara Katy's
54:32
of the World Waqum Silva's of the World. The Brenners is kind of my
54:37
plan. But in one fifty, I know I'm gonna play some Anthony Smith.
54:42
I like Patrino, but I mean he's gonna be pretty popular. I'm
54:45
just gonna mix a match. Those dogs are those favorites up up top in
54:47
the nine K range, depending on ownership, depending on the rest of my
54:51
builds. I think this line may be a little wide, though, if
54:53
I'm being honest, how do you see it? Yeah? I like Patrino
54:58
in this one. I mean, he looks just like me when I take
55:00
my shirt off, so it's hard hard not to look like I mean,
55:04
hard not to like him. But I do think he has every advantage in
55:07
this fight, aside from submission grappling. If Smith wins, I think it's
55:13
most likely a submission at some point. Even if it is Lake kicks and
55:15
Patrino starts, you know, rushing takedowns. I could see him getting caught
55:20
in a submission ultimately. But if this is a fifteen minute striking match,
55:22
I favored Patrino. If there's a knockout, I definitely favorite Patrino. And
55:28
if one of these guys is gonna land five plus takedowns, I definitely favorite
55:30
Patrino. So he just has a lot more ways to score well. Smith
55:35
has been TKO ten times already and Patrino has some of the biggest power in
55:38
the division. So I'm taking Patrino to get a knockout, and I'm absolutely
55:44
fine going Patrino over Pereira for two hundred dollars less if that's what I need
55:47
to do. And I'm also fine taking my favorite Perreira lineup and putting Patrino
55:52
in instead and leaving the two hundred dollars so I will have more Patrino exposure
55:58
than Pereira. Uh but he's gonna have to wrestle a lot or get a
56:02
knockout to make it happen. And he had like three takedowns in his last
56:06
fight and he scored crap, so that's kind of a worry. And this
56:09
is a tougher matchup as well. He scored sixty seven points with three takedowns.
56:16
That's not great, but he scored ninety four, one oh four and
56:20
one sixteen and his three fights before the ninety four is not great at ninety
56:24
four hundred. But if this guy scores one hundred plus points, he scores
56:28
one oh four, I'm not I'm having zero at one o four zero.
56:31
I would take some at one o four because because I can see him scoring
56:35
one o four and then Prayer scored one oh three, and then Rob.
56:37
I don't want either of that. I don't want either someone. Whether it's
56:42
a Kyo I don't even love much, whether it's Uh. I mean,
56:45
I think he gets out scored about I would rather bomb Feme, which again
56:49
I don't love. But again we don't know what they're gonna score in a
56:52
win. I think you're probably gonna need more than that one oh five from
56:54
nine k guys, but the one to sixteen I'll take one sixteen. That
56:59
was a wrestling I'm loading up, but I do think Patrino's my favorite pay
57:06
up option as long as I can afford it, I'm not. I'm also
57:08
not going to force him into lineups either. If I just need to hover
57:12
in the mid range, I'm fine doing that because he actually should get out
57:15
scored by U Pantosia assuming both of them win. But that main event is
57:22
going to be an all in fight for me, so loading up on that
57:24
one. But I will be heavy on Patrino here. I think he gets
57:27
a first round knockout and sins Smith just that much closer to retirement. Yeah,
57:32
makes some sense. Do you think Alex Berra will be in USC three
57:35
oh one. No, he will not be on UFC three oh one,
57:38
didn't weigh in, wasn't supposed to be on the card. I know there
57:42
was something I saw on Twitter. He mentioned something UF three three on one
57:45
that takes place tomorrow. Though it's a card we're talking about. He will
57:47
not be there. It's not the WWE. You're not gonna see now.
57:52
John Cena the Rock comeback after a couple of years or whatever it is.
57:54
Two fights left, cole Man event time. You hinted your hand on both
57:58
these next two fights on the all those side and all in on the main
58:02
event. So minus one forty five Martinez plus one twenty five Jose although plus
58:08
one seventy for this fight to finish. Martinez plus two to seventy five although
58:13
plus four fifty. I don't like this fight for DFS. I like it
58:16
real life. I'm a big Jonathan Martinez guy. Like kicks, body kicks,
58:21
high kicks, very good kicks. He's printed for me, except the
58:25
Navy Grand Fight, which definitely costs me a boatload of cheese, knocked out
58:29
in the second round. I'm always gonna be worried about the chin a little
58:32
bit because of that fight, it hasn't fell apart, I guess since then.
58:37
I think it's like a six fight winning street for Martinez. He's really
58:40
skilled. I like him, but although can also kick light kicks are nasty.
58:45
I think I know you're in it's supposed to go to the decision.
58:49
You're in Brazil. It's Jose. Although so that's everything that you've camped.
58:52
I still think Martinez just picks him apart with the kicks. Does he finish
58:57
him, I don't know. If he does, it's probably late, and
59:00
even Nat doesn't score enough. So I like Martinez by either lad ko or
59:04
finish, but I still don't like it. In DFS. I like the
59:07
Borjas fight more right away. I like the Malarchy fight more we talked about.
59:10
I like the Brito Shore fight more. So. I just won't have
59:14
much of this fight. I'm gonna cap both guys for like fifteen percent max
59:19
maybe or something like that, and if they hit, they hits. But
59:22
I don't like it. Give me Martinez, what about you? Yeah,
59:24
I'm Aldo or pass on this one, but it is one of my least
59:29
favorite fights on the card because the name Aldo is gonna bring more ownership than
59:32
I'm willing to get personally and then Martinez. I've never been like sold on
59:37
Martinez, but he does. His best attribute is his leg kicks, for
59:39
sure, but he's going against the original leg kicker in Jose Aldo. I
59:45
think, although I mean now we got like no Usada, we're back in
59:50
Brazil. Judges are corrupt, the fans are gonna be crazy. I don't
59:54
know. Everything's just leading me to Aldo in this one. But I don't
59:57
even think he scores ten X in a win because I don't think he's gonna
1:00:00
get a knockout. I don't think either of these guys are gonna wrestle.
1:00:02
So I'm just gonna let the field pay the rake, hopefully, and I'm
1:00:06
I'm just hoping the winners score sixty five points and I don't even care who
1:00:08
it is. But I am on the edge of maybe betting Aldo in this
1:00:14
one, so I won't x him out. I do think I might x
1:00:16
out Martinez. I will x out Martinez with twenty or less one fifty.
1:00:21
I don't know what I'm gonna I don't even know if I'm gonna do one
1:00:22
fifty on this card or not, but if I do, I don't know
1:00:25
that I'm gonna x him out, but I would also be okay with zero
1:00:28
percent Martinez in one hundred and fifty. I would also be okay with zero
1:00:31
percent all dough in one fifty two. So favorite fight on the card to
1:00:36
fade, but I'll take the underdog to win. Makes some sense, Big
1:00:38
Marlin. You want to touch on this quick, because I was thinking the
1:00:42
same thing. I knew the answer, though. Come on, man,
1:00:44
you're looking good. Yeah, I didn't even know. I just weighed myself
1:00:46
to DAWs, down thirteen pounds. I quit marijuana this week, so that's
1:00:52
that's why my appetite is not quite the same. I've been going hard in
1:00:54
the gym though, But yeah, I was shocked to see the scale today,
1:00:58
finally under two hundred pounds. Looking good, Big Marley, absolutely looking
1:01:00
good. Keep up that grind. Love to see that last fight on the
1:01:05
car. It may event time. Baby Alexandra Pintojia taking on Steve Erseg minus
1:01:09
one eighty two Pantoja plus one fifty seven er Seg minus one fifty for this
1:01:15
fight to finish Pantoja plus one sixty Steve Ertzg plus two fifty. All right,
1:01:21
So I'm gonna throw it two on this Pantosia. How much wrestling grappling
1:01:27
does he do? Because you said all in fight. If erseg wins,
1:01:30
who is my preferred play in this fight? I do not see how he's
1:01:32
not on the optimal? Question is Pantosia if he wins, do you see
1:01:38
pass and what are the past that he's not on the optimal? Like do
1:01:42
you think he wrestles early? He's had some monster scores lately, but take
1:01:45
Roy Val down, He'll chill off his back and do nothing. I'll fight
1:01:49
like that was pretty obvious. I don't know man like ers, good solid
1:01:54
grappler, salid takedown defense. Talk to me how you see this fight going?
1:01:59
Is there as Pantosia wins, whether it's a finish in the third round
1:02:02
and decision and isn't optimal because I didn't plan on making the rule. But
1:02:07
he's also eighty eight hundred, Like if he wins, I do prefer him
1:02:10
over Patrino, over all of them except Pereira. But then you can lead
1:02:15
money way easier to take this fight away. It's gonna be high owned,
1:02:19
no doubt about that. Yeah, I'm just gonna be all in because I
1:02:22
have a hard time seeing either one of them not on the optimal lineup.
1:02:27
If it's not, it would be a Pantoja decision win where he only lands
1:02:30
one or less takedowns. But I think his biggest edge is gonna be on
1:02:36
the ground, so he's gonna need those takedowns, he's gonna need the control
1:02:38
time, and he's coming off back to back one hundred and forty three point
1:02:44
wins, so he has the highest ceiling on the slate eighty eight hundred.
1:02:49
I mean, he's freaking eight hundred dollars cheaper than Pereira, and if they
1:02:52
both win, I expect Pantosa to outscore him. So I love Pantosa at
1:02:58
eighty eight hundred. However, I like Pereira, I like Detour, So
1:03:02
this is kind of leading me to maybe being overweight on Ersig. I think
1:03:06
Ersig's super live in this fight. He could wrestle, he could grapple.
1:03:09
But I think Ersig might have the overall striking edge in this one, probably
1:03:14
a little bit more powerful as well, and I just think it's a little
1:03:16
bit closer to a pick him fight. I do give Pantoso the overall edge
1:03:21
just because he's got the experience, He's fought much tougher competition. He looks
1:03:24
like a fighter, but Ersig's a beast man. I like Ersig, and
1:03:29
it won't shock me at all to see him be the champion this weekend.
1:03:31
It'll be weird to see a belt around that accountant's waist, but I think
1:03:37
he's got all the skills to do it. I'm just gonna have this fight
1:03:39
in I think every single one of the lineups that I create because of their
1:03:43
pricing. If Pantosa was like ninety five hundred dollars, then I could get
1:03:45
away from him a little bit more. But at eighty eight hundred dollars with
1:03:50
the highest ceiling on the on the entire card, I just I can't.
1:03:53
I just want to have like maybe fifty Pantos fifty. I don't know what
1:03:58
I'm gonna do, but I think I'm gonna make a rule that this is
1:04:01
in every single one of my lineups because I don't feel good. I mean,
1:04:06
I don't feel great about a lot of the other fights compared to this
1:04:10
one. And if Ersik wins, I mean seventy four hundred dollars, like,
1:04:13
how does he not end up on the optimal lineup. So I'll say
1:04:17
right now, the shell that I have it has Ersig in it just because
1:04:21
I wanted to get the favorites that I like. But I won't shock me
1:04:25
to see me change that to Pantosia. I don't even care which one of
1:04:29
these guys is in my single entry, but I know one of them will
1:04:30
be and I'll have one hundred percent of this fight. It's gonna be a
1:04:33
fun one. I'm picking Pantosa to win, but like as the days go
1:04:39
by, I feel like Ersik's more and more live, So I don't know.
1:04:42
Man, I could even change my pick tomorrow to Earth six, so
1:04:45
I don't know. Looking forward to it should be a high paced fight.
1:04:46
We got five rounds to work with. Should see a full MMA game from
1:04:50
both of these guys. I can't wait for it. Be loading up on
1:04:54
this one. Yeah, it'll be a great fight. I know. My
1:04:56
preferred play is Steve Versek the fourteen Savings. If you wish he definitely like
1:05:01
I'd be shocked to see him win and not on the optimal whereas I think
1:05:04
Pantosia and a win is still optimal too, But I guess I wouldn't be
1:05:08
completely shocked. The line is closed in on Erseg throughout the week as well.
1:05:13
He has he has the tail to tape advantage, the bigger fighter,
1:05:15
good grappler, like if he can stuff takedowns, he's strong. It feels
1:05:19
wrong he should not be getting a title fight off of a matchnell knockouts.
1:05:24
But it also like do we see roy Valley? Royvelle's heard? Like does
1:05:28
people want to see Moreno? Again, I think he's on it, Like
1:05:30
there really isn't many options at this weight class either. I'm expecting a good
1:05:33
fight. I'm gonna have more Erseg, definitely, Silvi gonna have some some
1:05:38
Pantoja as well. I won't say, though, I wouldn't be shocked if
1:05:42
Erseg comes in a little higher on than Pantoja on this cart if ersgs like
1:05:46
forty eight percent, on Pantojo is like forty two percent. I know we
1:05:50
don't have to like that. I doubt anybody in the industry has it like
1:05:54
that, But it's similar to last week, where I do think it's just
1:05:57
so much easier to click Alex Perez's name over Allaw's name last week, and
1:06:00
with the lack of dogs on this card and the fourteen hundred. I would
1:06:03
not be surprised. I still like ersay more because when he does win,
1:06:08
I think it's optimal. If he loses a decision, he still might be
1:06:12
on the optimal. If we don't have enough dogs come through on this card.
1:06:15
So that's all thirteen fights, Robin. Make sure to check my reply
1:06:19
if you need my venmo man, I will definitely take you up on that
1:06:24
upgrade. I don't know this, Mike a seventy five bucks, eighty bucks,
1:06:27
you send me a hundred piece, I will grab a little better mic
1:06:30
from you would be much appreciated. Memberships will not get me another mic.
1:06:34
They're like three hundred bucks. If you get a good one, though,
1:06:36
Robin, three hundred. Make sure you let him. Let's pup it.
1:06:40
Yeah, two hundred plus, Robin. If you want to see a new
1:06:42
title, Tom Mike, otherwise it's going on the year what four year five?
1:06:46
You ain't gonna see another mic right here. If you do want to
1:06:48
sign up for membership, though, MILLI fifteen gets you fifteen percent off monthly
1:06:54
six month annual package ship Tomizer just came out. Definitely check out that PGA
1:06:59
show. The first four twenty five minutes with Tambo and who answering some questions.
1:07:03
If you're a member PGA only, you get to check the PGA ship
1:07:08
to Demizer the next thirty days for free. Just MLB only can check MLB
1:07:13
for it's If you're an all package monthly, six months or annually, you
1:07:15
can check out all the sports. MMA will be up in about a month.
1:07:19
We're not charging yet. If you have a ship Tomizer thing in discord.
1:07:24
If you have questions, I see Tambo in there answering stuff all the
1:07:27
time, no better time. Get over NHL, going on MLB, going
1:07:30
on MBA, MMA, PGA, NASCAR, Shipanation, dot Com MILLI fifteen
1:07:36
fifteen percent off. Definitely do get in the discord if you do join,
1:07:42
awesome stuff is always big mar Ley, good luck, Who, good luck,
1:07:45
deep Water, good luck. Hold on. I keep forgetting to news
1:07:49
name, but I'm not going to leave you out. And if you're also,
1:07:51
if you're in the live final or online final for now and you haven't
1:07:57
let us known your shiping nation, let me know. I'll be cheering for
1:08:00
you and your thing. Hold on where is this? JP Barr, good
1:08:03
luck to you as well. Let's advance to the next round. Somebody from
1:08:08
ship to nah. Win some big bucks in the three dollars in the twenty
1:08:12
five dollars. Enjoy some violence. Brazil always a fun crowd. Good luck,
1:08:15
Big Marley, stay grinding, awesome talking fights like always. Thank you
1:08:19
Little Neck, have a great day. Good luck, be safe for Big
1:08:23
Marley. On titled town Peace ms ms Mons