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2026 Season Overview · Mike Check - A College Football Podcast

• Jackson: Alright, here we go. Ready? Davis: First pod. Jackson: You ready? All right. This is the the Mike Check podcast. all right, let me restart. Davis: man, come on now. That was fun. That was Jackson: Dude, I don't know what to say. This is the hardest part. This is the hardest part of the whole podcast. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: 'Cause the rest of it we're just talking well. Hello everyone. Welcome to the Mike Check Podcast. I'm your host, Jackson Allen. That's my co-host, Davis Bellman. And welcome to the pod. Welcome to the pod, everyone. First pod, first pod. Davis: First pod. Yeah. We've been talking about this for a while and Getting close to football season. Jackson: But I know, I know. Getting that itch, getting that itch. all right, just a little bit about what what's going on here. Davis, you may have to fix your Wi Fi, dude, but all right. a little bit about what's going on, what the podcast is about. This is just podcasts that we decided to start just so we can, you know, be casual and talk well during the season. something we both wanted to do. And we're just gonna give it a roll. We're just gonna keep it like I said, keep it casual, keep it simple, and hopefully Davis: Hope to provide some entertainment, and maybe y'all will learn something along the way. Jackson: Yeah. Let's do it. All right. Let's get into it. So the first thing we're gonna do is we're gonna get into a storyline, right, Davis? Davis: Yeah. So we wanted to talk about the major storylines for this upcoming college football season. You know, it can range anywhere from prospect talk to coaches being fired. we wanted to discuss how likely some of these storylines are to occur and just the impact that they have on the season, whether that's playoff impact, championship impact, just to provide some Some things to look out for this upcoming season. So for the audio listeners, we have a graph pulled up, and we have on one axis the likelihood to occur, and then on the other axis we have the impact. So in the top left we have long shots. these are these are storylines that probably won't happen but have major impact. and then moving down, we have background noise. So something that's also not very likely to occur and then also may not have that big of an impact. and then in the bottom right we have what's expected. so these are very likely, but also maybe not that big of an impact. And then in the top right we have season definers. so we have some topics down below and we're gonna rank some of these, talk through some of these, and just give y'all a preview. so Jackson, you wanna kinda read off the list and we can take it from there. so I guess we'll just start with the first one. Jackson: All right, so the top NFL prospects cement their status. Davis, what do you like? What do you like Davis: Yeah. Jackson: for this one? Tell us what this means to you and where do you want me to where you want to put it on the board. Davis: Yeah, so took a look at at what players or what quarterbacks specifically are projected to go number one in the draft next year. as no surprise, Arch Manning is number one at plus two fifty. Dante Moore out of Oregon is plus three eighty. CJ Carr out of Notre Dame is plus six fifty. and then you got a couple other guys like Lenore Sellers, Darien Mensa, Julian Saiyan, and Drew Messenaker a little further down the list. But as of right now, those are kind of the the quarterbacks that you should be looking out for for this upcoming NFL draft. with that being said, you know, taking a look at those top three quarterbacks, I would I would Initially I would say, you know what, I think that those are all pretty locked in. but I did take a look at, you know, what last year's class looked like. And, you know, the best indicator of of future is taking a look at the past. So, you know, this time last year, the top quarterbacks were Drew Aller, who had a plus through 50 odds to go number one. And so that's right in between what Arch Manning and Dante Moore have right now. you then had Garrett Nussmeyer at plus 350, so even higher than Dante Moore. And then you had Lenore Sellers, Arch Manning, Cade Klubnick, Sam Levitt, and then all the way down at plus 2200, you had the eventual number one overall pick, Fernando Mendoza. so Based on last year, those odds th those odds don't don't look too great for these quarterbacks coming up. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I would honestly I would probably agree with you other than the fact I mean, do you have anyone that you would think who do you think is is replacing Arch Manning, Dante Moore, CJ Carr, or honestly anyone on that list? Who who Davis: Yeah, the kind of the the the interesting thing that happens every year is y you got guys that that kinda come out of nowhere. you know, last year, Fernando Mendoza was plus twenty two hundred. But if you go back even further, I mean Jaden Daniels when he went what number two overall, he was he was a transfer that Arizona State players were were glad that he left. and then even before that you had Joe Burrow who, you know, before he exploded, he was you know, had a mediocre season, but really wasn't wasn't on any draft radar. So I mean, I I don't think it would be surprising if if someone that was not on this list became a top draft pick, but I think this this storyline is more of a These are the top prospects. Do they continue their or do they cement their status or not? And I guess just from just from just from looking at the past, I mean, it's hard to say that that you can be that confident. even though I don't know which of the top guys I would choose to, you know, fall off or not meet expectations. but I mean it's pretty clear that. while the likelihood may not be super probable, you can't deny the championship impact. I mean, Arch Manning, Texas, top five odds at a national championship. dante moore, Oregon. that's you know, that's my preseason championship pick, and we'll we'll get into that later. CJ Carr, Notre Dame. So I mean, these these quarterbacks are coming from from elite contenders. so definitely think that there's a huge impact or huge yeah, huge impact season defining almost, but I'll kind of defer to you to to see how how far on the likely scale you want to put it. Jackson: So, I mean, given the Davis: But Jackson: given what happened last year, I would say I would probably say it would, you know, I don't think I would project it. I would say it's probably possible. and I would agree with you, I think it's definitely season defining. So I Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I I'd I throw it right there, kind of on the on the side of possible. And I would throw it all the way, you know, close to the top as season defining. I mean, these guys are Like you said, all on on championship caliber teams or most of are and I think it'll have a big impact on the seasonal Davis: Yeah. R really out of out of this list here, I mean the only the only guys that aren't on like predicted playoff contenders are Lenore Sellers out of South Carolina, and I know that's a a pretty popular sleeper pick. and then Drew Mestimacher out of Oklahoma State, who just came over from North Texas. seen a lot of hype with them. I think o Oklahoma State will definitely turn it around. bringing in, you know, surprisingly a lot of talent, mostly from North Texas, but but yeah, those are really the only two guys out of the list that that don't that aren't on contender. So I mean that definitely a big impact here. I guess what out of out of those top three that we that we've kind of been talking through, Arch Manning, Dante Moore, CJ Carr, what And and with the odds, I'll read out the odds again. Arch Manning two fifty, Dante Moore, three eighty, CJ Carr six fifty. Which which one of those which one of those do you like the most, odds wise, to go number one overall? Jackson: I would probably lean with Arch Manning. you know, I think Arch Manning's a good quarterback. I think I think Arch has a lot of talent around him. yeah, they have they got added a weapon and Cam Coleman this year. they have good offensive line. Their defense is good, which I know that doesn't directly impact Arch Manning, but at the same time if that team is in the semifinals of the playoffs, I think Arch Manning's going number one overall. So I would probably go with Arch. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I would probably go with Arch here. I think CJ Carr, while I don't I would probably say he's the least talented of the three, I think CJ Carr plays relatively easy schedule compared to the other two. so if he has Notre Dame in the in the playoffs and and competing for a national championship, I could definitely make an argue argument for CJ Carr as well. Davis: Yeah, and I guess I'll I'll go another route. I'm sure it's gonna be evident throughout this pod. but I'm pretty high on Oregon. I like I like the the odds for Dante Moore here. could have came out last year, probably would have went, you know, top five, decided to return, has some good weapons around him. you know obviously really high on the team and and then you're also getting better odds than what you're getting with arch and and kind of the thing that that is that maybe scares me with arch and I think that there's there's a different avenues that you can win if you take the Dante Moore is that one Arch Manning doesn't play like he did to end the season and and plays somewhere in between like he did to begin and and end the season. So and he's not living up to the expectations. And you know what? Maybe he comes back next year to Texas. I know that's been floated and probably makes just as much money as he would have anyways. so that's that's kind of one avenue. another avenue is that w what if he is that that prince that was promised. and is what everybody is hoping that he is and is the presumed number one overall pick and pulls an pulls what his uncle did with Eli Manning, you know basically declining the the Chargers pick and does that for the Jets. I I think that's I think that's Probably not likely, but I think that's in play. And for for two of those reasons, that that's why I would lead and Dante more for my pick. But you know, could could be anybody, but I obviously like where we have this storyline put here. you got anything else to add for this storyline? Jackson: No, I mean I could see I could, you know, make an argument for both sides. I don't know if I mentioned this Davis: Yeah, Jackson: earlier, but I do think that, you know, teams are gonna look for a reason to draft Arch Manning versus I feel like, you know, some of these other guys, Lenore Sellers, Darien Mensa, maybe Julian Sand, I feel like when you evaluate a draft a draft prospect, you're looking for a reason not to draft them. Davis: they're gonna see Lenora Sellers at the Combine and he's gonna be six three two forty and run a four five and and they're gonna they're gonna start getting antsy. I i if he does if he does well. You know, he we we Jackson: I I mean I agree, but at the same time, if if you have the number one overall pick and you pass on a Manning and he pans out to be a good NFL quarterback, I feel like that team's gonna take a lot of heat down the road. So that's what I meant by that. Davis: Yeah. Yeah, you're fired. Yeah. And and and I and I wasn't I guess I'm not making the case for Lenorris. even though he was had the top three odds last year to be number one. so obviously Jackson: Steady early. Davis: came back. but i if if he puts it all together, and I know they had a terrible O line last year, but if if he puts it all together, that that's an interesting one. That's a that's a fun one for for Dynasty rookie drafts 'cause you know, he's gonna definitely provide On the ground and through the air. But yeah, I like where we put it. let's lead us off with this with this next one that you wanna go to. Jackson: Alright. The G five to P four coaching wave proves to be a massive massive success. Davis, direct me. Where am I going with this one? What do you think? Davis: Yeah, so last year there wasn't a whole lot of you know recent examples. this year we obviously have you know John Summerall that went from Tulane to Florida. We have Alex Golish, Alexi Golish from the that went from South Florida. to to Auburn. we have Ryan Silverfield who went from Memphis to Arkansas. And then we have Chesney. I'm I'm drawing a blank on his first name, but that went to UCLA. Bob Chesney, yeah, thank you. That went to UCLA. I mean, so just right off the bat, none of those teams are contenders really. they fired their coach last year for a reason. so I I don't think that there's really a huge impact on the season other than, you know, one of them maybe playing spoiler. You know, it'd be pretty nice if Alice Golish could go into Tuscaloosa to end the year and and end the dreams. But yeah, so I wouldn't say I wouldn't say it's got too much of an impact. and then how likely is it that they, you know what, turn the program around? What was the what was the criteria that we had? Jackson: very unlikely possible projector or a lock. Davis: Or what was the like the criteria for or what was the storyline that we had? That they turned the program around or that they excel? Jackson: that they proved to be a massive success. Davis: Yeah. Okay. I mean, I think that even if they did really well, they could prove to be a success and still not have a a huge impact on the season. I mean, I really like the hire for Auburn. you know, love everything Gullish is saying. You know, Sumerall is making his rounds at SEC Media Jackson: Mm-hmm. Davis: Days. He's always got some absurd quote that he wants to use. but you know, Florida fans seem to like him. so I'd probably put it somewhere in the middle. It's middle in terms of likelihood Jackson: Mm. Davis: and then, you know, probably pretty low on the impact scale. Jackson: Let me slide this over here. Davis: yeah, that's good with me. Jackson: Possible? Yeah. R right here. Davis: Yeah, I like it. Jackson: Let me ask you this. What what makes you as an Auburn fan, what makes you what draws you to Alex Golish? Why do you say you like the hire? As opposed like what makes him different from the last few Auburn hires? Davis: Yeah, so Jackson: As an Alabama fan, I'm curious. Just because, you know, Aub Auburn seemed to you Davis: Yeah. So I mean yeah. The the Jackson: know s have swung and miss here lately. I'm not saying it's a bad hire, I'm not saying it's a great hire. I just I wonder why why do you say you like Alex Golish as an Auburn fan? Davis: So at a high level, and I'll get more into my you know in-depth take, at a at a high level, you know, he completely turned around that South Florida program. I don't have the the records off the top of my head, but you know, prior to Alex Gullish getting there, South Florida was a dumpster fire. and then in the three years that he got there, improved wins each year. I I really like You know, his attitude, he seems to be no nonsense, seems to be very detail oriented. so I like that about him. I think I I'm excited about the offense. I mean, that offense is always the veer and shoot is kind of always given given Alabama fits, but do like the offense. and I guess one of my more nuanced takes is that Th there's a problem with with a lot of a lot of times when teams are firing a coach and then they hire a new one. They let the pendulum swing. So, you know, a lot of times they, you know, they had a very offensive minded schematical coach and that's on one pendulum. And then when they fire them, they let it swing completely over and they go, you know, defensive hard nose. and that was kind of what I was worried about with when Auburn was making the hire. Cause you had Hugh Freeze that, you know, recru he could recruit. obviously was, you know, heralded as a offensive guru and and QB whisperer. And I don't I already tired of talking about him at this point. but I was really worried that that Auburn would then swing back and and lean more of a defensive coach, even though I was I was wanting, you know, offensive minded play caller, because I I I think that's kind of where college football is headed. so did like that aspect of it. yeah, and everything he says, I mean he's completely commanding the locker room. You know, I think he's it's c it's cliche, but I think he's building a culture. And maybe I'm just saying that because Q Freeze did such a terrible job at it and the bar was slow so low. But I am liking what I'm seeing with what he's doing so far. I'm not sure how it will translate to the field year one. And we'll we have a SEC conference breakdown of all the teams in a future episode. So I'll I'll get into it there. but yeah, I know that was a long winded answer for a a simple question, but Jackson: Hey, it's Davis: Yeah, I do I do Jackson: your team. Davis: like Alex Gullish. I and I can hear all the listeners saying that, well, Auburn really wanted John Sumral. And while that may be true, I was I was always somewhat against John Sumerall, just I don't know. I I th I think that I think the John Summerall hire would have been going with the pendulum, going from offensive guy to defensive rah rah guy. So do do like what do like the hire. He was able to retain DJ Durkin. That's all obviously a plus. but I'm I'm expecting big things out of Alex Golish in the future. Maybe not this year. We'll see. Jackson: Seems like a very Malzon hire as an Alabama fan, but not saying that's a bad thing. I feel like a lot of Auburn fans would trade these last five years for Gus Mal. Davis: Malzon was w way laid back. I I think he's Yeah, we'll see. I mean a a at this point I would I'd love to take guest Malzon but we'll we'll we'll see how it goes. We'll get into Jackson: We'll see. Davis: the Auburn breakdown in the in the in a next episode. Jackson: We'll see. We'll we'll save we'll save the rest. We'll save the rest. So all right, anything else? Davis: Yeah. Who do who do you like out of the yeah, I'll just ask you, who do what other group of five coaches do you like? Jackson: I'd probably go with Eric Morris. just looking at you know, looking at these coaches. Davis: Yeah, I I guess I forgot to mention Eric Morris, yeah. North Texas Jackson: Yeah. S I mean I think he plays in a Davis: to Oklahoma State. Jackson: Right. North Texas, Oklahoma State. I mean, y with Goalish, Summer on Silverfield, those are all guys coming from G six conferences to the SEC. And that's a big jump, not saying that it can't be done and they can't have success, but I think if I had to go with the coach that's the most likely to have, immediate success and even long term success, I'd probably go with Eric Morris just because of playing in the Big Twelve, obviously it's a lot it's an easier conference. easier opponents. he brought a lot of his guys over from from North Texas. So he did. He did I mean whether that will Davis: Brought brought the whole team. Mesti Maker, Jackson: translate from from that conference to to the Big Twelve is a is a different story, but I I think I like his chances Davis: Well, I'm Jackson: the best to succeed year one. Davis: Yeah, I I like that call. for my sake, I hope that that translates to the big twelve. because if it doesn't, then there's definitely no shot that all this South Florida talent that transferred to Auburn is gonna pan out. But that's yeah, we'll see. Should be f should be Jackson: We'll see. Davis: sorry. All right, sweet. Well I like where Jackson: Sorry. Davis: we have it there. Let's let's hit it with the next one. Jackson: Go number three, transfer portal quarterbacks continue to dominate college football. Davis: So I'll I'll give a little background. last year the top transfer quarterbacks according to on three. so Carson Beck was number one, Georgia to Miami, took him to a national championship. I've been practicing this one. Nico Iamaliava. transferred Jackson: Pretty good. Davis: Tenn Tennessee to UCLA. That w that one didn't work out too well. then you had John Matir. Washington State, Oklahoma, obviously turned out pretty well. Darien Minsa, Tulane to Duke, and then we'll get into him for this year's. the big one, Fernando Mendoza, Cow to Indiana. obviously worked out pretty well for them. And then to round it out, I am not even gonna pretend to to know how to say his name, but it's JKS, who technically was a transfer. He, you know, enrolled into Oregon and then prior to this the spring transferred to Cal, was a freshman starter last year. yeah, he it he turned he turned heads at Cal, so that that worked out well. so pretty good results from last year's transfers. I mean really the only one that that didn't work out was Nico. I mean Darien Mensa Duke was I mean Duke Technically won the eight A C C right? Yeah, so I mean Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: yeah. All all those guys turned out pretty well. and then getting into this year's common name, Darien Minsa goes from Duke to Miami, Sam Levitt, Arizona State to LSU, Byron Brown, South Florida to Auburn. so those are the bigger ones. You got Rocco Becht, you got Drew Mestemaker who we Talked about earlier. Josh Hoover, TCU to Texas Tech. DJ Lagway to Baylor and Austin Simmons from Ole Miss to Missouri. so I guess I'll start off. The that class last year was was pretty good. I mean, I don't know if if it's just hindsight, but I mean all those guys panned out. You know, pretty great. Do you know who the the seventh quarterback on that list was last year? He di he didn't turn out too well. Jackson: Got me with that one. no. Davis: Jackson Arnold. I I intentionally left Jackson: No, he was seven. I I would looking back, I would have probably, with the hype behind Jackson Arnold as a five star and I mean he didn't do terrible at Oklahoma. I'd probably put him in the top five. Davis: Yeah, he Yeah, I I Yeah, I I I'm getting bad memories just thinking about it. So let's let's go ahead and move on to the this year's. I mean, obviously from a contender standpoint, the big ones are Darien Minsa from at Miami now and Sam Levitt. I guess Josh Hoover too. so for an impact standpoint, you know, most of the contenders have quarterbacks that have either been on the roster or transferred in a in a previous class. So maybe not the the biggest impact here. likelihood of a succeeding, you know, I mean, I think that they, you know, maybe not as well as they did last year. There's obviously gonna be some busts, but you gotta think Byron Beck Brown followed his coach. Rocco Beck followed his coach, right? yeah, Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I was Iowa State depend state. Drew Mestemaker. followed his coach. so I mean I think that there's definitely I definitely think that they're they can succeed, but you know, maybe not maybe not as well. So probably in the probable and then somewhere along the, you know, middle impact wise. That's probably what I'd say. Yeah, I like it. Yeah, what's your I know I've been talking about all these guys for a while now. You got any particular transfer quarterback that you're you're looking out for? Jackson: I mean it it I know it probably it's gonna sound pretty chalky, but I think one, two, three, four, I mean I think all those guys, Mensa, Levitt, maybe Byron Brown, Rocco Beck, Messmaker, Hoover, I'd probably stop it at there. Davis: Yeah, I I I did say Hoover was to Texas Tech. I messed that up. It's too in Indiana, so apologize for that Jackson: Right. Right. Davis: one. So that add that to a contender. Obviously we know what went down with the Brennan Soresby thing out of Texas Tech. so I didn't include him on the list, but yeah. So do have Josh Hoover to Indiana. So that maybe adds a little bit more impact to that. Jackson: I mean I think I think Josh Hoover is a is definitely an interesting interesting one. I mean he's he's playing in that that offense that you know succeeded so well with Mendoza. So and he threw the ball well at TCU. I don't know. Hoover's interesting. I think the other ones, Mensah, Levit. I think those guys will work out. Rocco Beck is is playing in the same system. So a lot of these guys are playing in that same same system as previous coach, like you mentioned, they're following the coach of the new school. I really don't Davis: Yeah. Jackson: see one that I think's just gonna bust. I mean not to call you out on the on the Byron Brown thing, but Davis: Yeah, I think the I think the floor I think the floor for these guys, yeah. I think the floor for these guys are higher based on what you said with the familiarity with the coaches. I don't I don't think I don't think that there's a you know, I mean, w we didn't say it last year, but don't think there's a Mendoza or a you know what, I mean I I think I like Darien Mintzum more this year than I liked Carson Beck last year. So Darien Mentz is the one that intrigues me the most. I'm not sure how to feel about Sam Levitt. You know, he had that good run two years ago with Arizona State with Jordan Tyson and Cam Scatabot, played well, and then last year, you know, they lose Scatabot. and then Jordan Tyson is banged up. Sam Levitt's banged up, never really found their footing, didn't really play that well. I don't know how I feel about Sam Levitt, but I do believe in Lane Kiffin, the offensive minded coach. So that that's the one that I'm most excited to watch how it unfolds. Jackson: I think Sam Levitt will be you know I think Lane Kiffin will make it as easy as he can for him in that offense Davis: Yeah, I I can believe it. Jackson: playing playing for a new team because playing for Arizona State, playing on the road in the Big Twelve, no offense to Big Twelve fans, but it's not the same as going on the road in the SEC and playing in some of these stadiums. So, I think it's gonna be a big shock, a culture shock for Sam Levitt. And I also think that there's gonna be a lot of pressure on Sam Levitt to succeed in this offense. Given all the money and all the hype that's behind LSU this year, I just think there's gonna be a lot of pressure on him. So we'll Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: see. We'll see. I would say you know, out of this group. Davis: There's been a lot of storylines with him alone, you know, quitting on the team last year and you know, I don't know whether that's true or not, and then getting hurt playing bas pick up basketball. so there's been a lot of a lot of attention on him on him recently. So it'll be interesting to see how he handles all of it. Jackson: Yeah, Sam Levitt will be interesting. And I think I think he may be the one that a lot of people are, you know, are th kind of not concerned about given that he's gonna play in Kiffin's offense and go into a great team. But you know, there's a lot of pressure. There's a lot of pressure that comes with that. So we'll see. We'll see how he does. Davis: Yeah. Yeah, Jackson: All right. Rollin. Davis: Yeah. Let's go to the next one. Jackson: All right, the group of five representative makes a college football playoff run. Davis: Let's just go ahead and put this as unlikely. Very unlikely. All the way. All the way. obviously I think it'd have a impact because the whole storyline is the impact. So if it were to occur, you know, it would obviously have season defining, but I don't think it's likely. I mean, I guess this is Jackson: Yeah. I I I don't either. Davis: the third year of the 12 team playoff. And, you know, last year was Oregon JMU and That that was a you know it I think the s the score wasn't as bad as what it actually was. The final score was fifty-one thirty-four. I think Oregon kind of ran a ran away with it early and then cut it was kind of back and forth at the end, but you know, fifty-one thirty-four. also last year, Ole Miss Tulane, that game was over immediately. and that was a final score of forty one to ten. year prior was Jackson: They're just yeah. Davis: Penn State, Boise State. and that was the the Genty year. Probably probably the of the three team of the the group of five or six, whatever you call it now, of those teams I just named, probably the most talented team if I had to guess. and even then it was thirty-one fourteen. so that was the that was the since the twelve team playoff and then You have to go back to twenty twenty two when Alabama beat Cincinnati twenty seven to six. So not a whole lot of success. What? Jackson: In the NIL era, not gonna happen. I said in the NIL era especially, I just I don't know. Well, I guess that would make Davis: Yeah. So Jackson: it a little more likely, but still I I I don't I don't see any any way. Davis: Yeah, I'm I'm not seeing it. the top G five teams playoff odds, Boise Estate, James Madison, UTSA, Jackson Arnold's UN L V, Jackson Arnold and Dan Mullen, South Florida, North Dakota State, Army. Those are the top six. I I don't I don't have any any preferences here, I guess. Jackson: Got nothing. Davis: N yeah, North Dakota State would be would be would be a fun one, you know, after they just dominated the FCS for the last, you know, decade plus, but Jackson: Big job. Davis: yeah. Jackson: Big jump to make a playoff run in year one in the FBS. I mean making the playoffs one thing, make Davis: Yeah. It it it I will say it would be on par as an Auburn fan for Jackson Arnold to light it up at UNL V. Just needed to get away from from Q Freeze. God, that would that would that would irk me. Jackson: Hey, I mean, UNLV's not a bad pick to make the playoffs, so I don't think they're one in a game. Yeah, I know. Davis: They won ten games last year. Yeah, ten games with Dan Mullen last year and then brought in Jackson Arnold, so we'll we'll see how that goes, but yeah. Should be an interesting Jackson: All right, let's move. Davis: one. Yeah. Let's go. Jackson: SEC's nine game schedule cost the league a playoff bid. Davis: Yeah, I so I I think in the past the it seems like the committee has essentially just taken win loss record and sorted by that and just rolled with it. instead of kinda taking a you know you know, you got the the eye test, but then you also have the advanced metrics. seems like they've kind of thrown all that out the window. if they continue to do that, I I don't think it's great for the SEC. the SEC this year going to from eight to nine, but they're also still requiring that you play another power four team. So essentially every single like cupcake game turned into an SEC game from last year to this year. So that's I mean, for half the league. that's essentially a win to a loss. so I I I think you're gonna see more three loss teams in the SEC, obviously. hopefully the committee doesn't punish that and can look beyond just the record at face value, but I I don't I don't know if I'm I they're gonna have the committee's gonna have to show me before I believe that. So I I think it's it's somewhat likely that it does cost the SEC a playoff spot. and I think that that's obviously pretty big impact with one less SEC team. Jackson: I agree a hundred percent with everything you said. I think you know, until they show it, I won't believe it. So Davis: Yeah. Alright, sweet, I'm good with it. What we got next? Jackson: Roster continuity proves more valuable than talent acquisition. Davis: So this was this was an interesting one. So when I when I first, you know, came up or whenever we came up with the storyline, this was something that I would have said I would have made the case that roster continuity matters more than what probably the average fan thinks. And I know that used to be the case before because there wasn't a transfer portal, so you know, you were You bring guys back, well great, you're not you're not losing them. and and obviously in today's world that changes because you can lose guys and bring in better guys. so when I when I when I first started looking into it, I I would have said roster continuity matters a whole lot. but I did, you know, dive deeper into you know past results. And I I think my I think my tone has completely changed with that. so I will go through the the top returning the teams with the top returning production. So this isn't necessarily just starters or players or snaps. It's it's taken from Bill Bill Connolly's, I believe his name is he works for ESPN, he does the SP plus, he has a waiting average and weights, you know, snaps and and carries and catches and tackles and and and everything. Weights everything separately and ends up with a metric on which teams returned the most production. So I'll just quickly run through kind of the contender teams. But number one, Notre Dame. number five, South Carolina, number six, Texas, number eight, Georgia, number 10, Florida, 11, Oregon, 12, Texas Tech, 13, USC, 14, Tex AM, 16, Oklahoma. and all of those teams returned between seventy two percent and sixty-five percent of their re of their production. so that was seventy two to sixty-five from that span of teams that I just read off. The power four average is sixty one, which funny enough has gone down. each year of the transfer portal. So I think like three years ago it was eat the average was, you know, seventy percent. And probably ten years ago it was ninety percent outside of the Alabamas of the world that lost, you know, twelve guys to the draft every year. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: So those are those are the teams that that return the most production this year. Do you want to take a guess at who returned the the most production last year? And I'll give you a hint. It was it was a it was a team that a lot of people were picking as their championship favorite because of this sole reason returning production. And they They did not live live up to it. Can you can you take a guess at Jackson: Bama. Davis: who it was? No. Clemson. Jackson: No? Clemson. Davis: Clemson. So, you know, Dabbo didn't doesn't Dabo doesn't dab into the doesn't dabble into the portal Jackson: Really? Davis: that much. But I remember being high on Clemson last year for that reason and was like, They're returning everybody. Well, turns out they probably should have let some guys go Jackson: Dap or die. Davis: So the the top return yeah, so the top returning teams last year, and I'll I'll try to just I have the the top list here, but I'll I'll go through some of the key names. So we had Clemson at 73%. That would have been first this year. You had Arizona State coming off of a championship run or college football playoff run at 70%, Texas Tech, Texas AM, Vandy, Oklahoma, Baylor. Wisconsin. So I mean you have some teams in there that that that did well, but you also have some teams that you know that that actually fell off like Clemson and Arizona State. so I I guess just from what I've looked at over the past few years, I don't think that in today's NIL age and transfer portal age, I don't think returning production means as much as we as what we once thought. Especially with the fact that y you can get rid of ten starters and bring in ten better starters. And then if you just look at the returning production metric, it will say that you lost those guys when when really you brought in ten ten better guys. so I I think that I think that maybe it's worth taking this stat a little further and like maybe somehow factoring in what you end up bringing in, but I I don't think that this matters as much as even I thought a few days ago. Jackson: That's fair. I mean, it's a good point. I mean when Davis: Yeah. Jackson: you look at Clemson and who'd you say was number two? Davis: Arizona State last year. Jackson: Arizona Yeah. Yeah, Arizona State. I mean Clemson neither one of had a good year last year. So, if I Davis: Yeah. Jackson: r recall correctly, I mean Arizona State I don't think did very well. Davis: So I said that the average was sixty-one percent this year, right? Power four average, sixty-one percent. Right? You have Notre Dame at seventy-two percent. If we go look at the college football teams, college football playoff teams last year, let me let me rattle off a couple names. Ole Miss, this is last year. So they returned this is the percentage that they returned. From two years ago to last year when they made the run. Forty six percent. Georgia, forty seven percent, Oregon, forty five percent, Ohio State, forty one percent. So I mean, what does that tell me? I mean, all those teams are big spenders. They lost production Jackson: Yeah. Davis: that they probably were willing to lose and brought in better guys. So I think it just continues to prove the point that in today's transfer portal era, it's no longer a prerequisite for playoff contention and that elite Jackson: Do you know what Indiana's was last year? Just out of curiosity or no? Davis: no, they weren't in the top twenty five last year. so outside the Jackson: Interesting. Davis: top twenty five, I know they brought in a lot of guys. They brought in a lot of age too. They were like the oldest team Jackson: Right, yeah. That's why I was wonder that's why I I was asking 'cause I was like, I know those guys are, you know, super old, but I didn't know how much of them were like returners or, they came via the transfer portal. So just curious. Davis: Yeah. They weren't in the top twenty five. I don't have that number off the top of my head, but yeah. I mean who would have thought that if you just bring in twenty five year olds, you the twenty five year old is more experienced and developed than the the eighteen year old. Jackson: Yeah. No, Alabama learned that the hard way, that's for sure. So Davis: Yeah. Yep. All right. So I think yeah, I think we're Jackson: All right. Where are we putting this? Davis: I think it I think it's less likely 'cause we don't we don't think that returning production matters, but I think that it probably has an impact. But I mean the top returning teams it's there's a mix, so Jackson: number seven, the changing of the guard has officially begun. Davis: All right. Jackson: Alright, so you wanna define changing of the guard since since you kinda came up with these topics. So I'll let you roll with this one as an Alabama fan. Davis: Yeah, and I and I Yeah, you're you're not gonna you're not gonna please everybody with this one. so basically I I divided this up into traditional powers, so it was more of a last decade plus, and then I did new age contenders, so who are the essentially the big spenders and Jackson: So traditional powers i I guess you could say is referring to Davis: You know, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame. Texas is kinda you can go in either I I put in traditional, but you can you can you know what? I th they can be in either i either tier and then Georgia. And then for the new age contenders, I put Oregon, LSU, Miami, Indiana, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. And and there's definitely some overlap there and you know People are gonna argue argue which Jackson: I would say Texas is probably new age. Davis: Yeah. You can are you can argue which micro level team deserves which slot, but this is more of a macro level take, traditional powers versus new age contenders. So it doesn't have to be team based, it's more just theme based. So i if you want to div D V up the teams differently and whoever's listening, that's fine too. that's just kind of how I did it offhand. but that's how I had it. So the storyline is that the changing of the guard has officially begun. I I mean with the portal air and NIL, I I think it's here. I mean I mean it's evident Indiana just won it last year. I I d I mean Texas Tech, I don't I don't I mean I don't know if they're a true championship contender this year, because there's quarterback questions, but I don't think that they're going away. They're not going away as long as whatever billionaire donor is still donating hundreds of millions of dollars. Oregon Oregon's not going away. Phil Knight's gonna Phil Knight's gonna win a championship before he dies. He's he's just ramping it up every year. You got LSU is probably the biggest Jackson: Organs do. Davis: spenders, biggest spenders in the portal. Miami's a big spender, so I I think it I think it's likely. and then obviously it's a huge impact 'cause I mean these are these are what we're calling contenders now and then I mean you still got contenders in the traditional powers, but I mean Georgia's taking a step back, Alabama's taking a step back. That might be or that is definitely because of coaching, but I mean still. So that's kind of my thoughts. You got as a as a Alabama grad How do you how do you feel about about this take, this storyline? Jackson: I mean honestly I can see both I can see both sides. My thing is like if you put your traditional twenty tenslash past decade powerhouses in a group and then you put all these new age teams in a group, I would probably say like if I said this, if I said all right, I I'll take Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Georgia. And you can have the field. Who do you think will have more national championships in the next ten years? Twenty years. Davis: Alabama, Ohio State, who and who? Jackson: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Georgia, and I'll throw Texas in there. Texas is kind of that wild card team, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: basically Ohio State, Michigan, Bama, Georgia, and you had Notre Dame. Who do you who would would you take those four or five, however many teams I've left? Or would you take Davis: That's a that's a that's a good point. Jackson: the field? Davis: I I think I I think I'm taking the traditional powers. I think Jackson: That's the thing, it's like I mean, these new age contenders, like I mean, sure, Indiana won the whole thing last year and Miami played for it, but Tennessee, L S U, Oregon, Ole Miss, like I feel like they're all gonna be in the mix, but I don't think those teams have what it takes to consistently lift up trophy after trophy every year. So I definitely think they're gonna be around. Texas Tech, Oregon, you know, all those teams with money. They're not going anywhere, but I don't know, until Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I see them consistently get over the hump and win national championships, I still will take Bama, Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, Georgia. I think I think those teams are still gonna dominate. Maybe Davis: Yeah. Jackson: not dominate, but I think they'll still be, the the face of college football, if you will. So it's my take on it. Davis: Yeah, I think that's I think that's a good argument. yeah, I I'll I think I'll I think I'm siding with you more based on that. I th I think I think it's undeniable that the NIL era has has or the NIL transfer portal has introduced a new age of contenders. But yeah, maybe they haven't or I guess where I'm sitting right now, I don't think they've overtaken the traditional power. So I think I think you you've swayed me. So I think we're saying Jackson: Gonna go right in the middle. Davis: I think we can go we can go more left, more a little less likely. And then obviously pretty big impact. Yeah. So you wanna recap where exactly you put 'Cause I know we're for those that aren't Jackson: Yeah. Davis: that are watching on spot or listening on Spotify probably are just not sure where we're where we're at Jackson: Hey, don't don't Davis: him. Jackson: I'm an Apple music guy, Dave. So we're going we gotta we gotta launch on both sides here. Davis: Okay. Jackson: okay, so yeah, so we have like, you know, just north of playoff impact and then in that same Possible but not projected l more towards possible area. So possible and it's you know a playoff definitely a playoff impact. So that's where that's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: where we're gonna stick for now. Davis: Okay. I like it. Keep it let's keep it rolling. Jackson: All right, number eight. The hot seat claims multiple big names. Davis: All right. so last year we obviously got some some interesting firings. I mean, we had Brian Kelly midseason, we had James Franklin midseason. I don't I don't think that anyone foresaw those happening this time last year, but they did. Jackson: No. Davis: obviously the names this year are the top few are a little more set in stone. You got Mike Norvell out of Florida State. I think that I think he's pre fired. He's the most pre fired coach I've ever seen. I was shocked that they returned him. And then you got old Bill, who also just pre fired. So I think those are a given. But I don't know if we Jackson: You think Bill's pre fired? Davis: Maybe I'm just doubting him, but I th I thought that that Jackson: I mean it's North Carolina. Like I if Bill was at Florida State and d was doing what he was doing, I would say you're probably right, but Davis: I mean, I don't even think that it has any th I mean, okay. It definitely has something to do with his it has something to do well, Jackson: What kind of football aspirations does North Carolina have? Really? I mean like Davis: they hired Bill Belichick, so they obviously thought that they were getting something for some reason, even though that college football in today's world Jackson: Yeah, but you think you think they thought they were getting something or you think they thought they could sell tickets with that? I don't know. Could have been a little bit of both. Davis: I thought that they I I think that I think that when they hired him they thought that they were getting an elite coach who could seamlessly transition to the college game. And I thought that even at the time that was a terrible decision because even the NFL game had passed him by. And now you got college Jackson: Yeah, it's true. Davis: football where it I mean, a coach's job is like like mostly not even coaching football anymore. It's freaking managing guys that are making millions of dollars and recruiting and NIL and transfer portal. It's like there's so much th there's there's so much non-football that goes into being a football coach. And Bill Pelichek was letting the NFL game pass him by and then is now turning to college football where it's a completely different game. I thought that was a terrible hire to begin with. So one, I didn't think it worked out, but I did not see I did not like expect all of this extra curli curricular stuff that occurred, which is hilarious in its own sense. I mean y you got the GM fired after one year. You got his son that's the DC is is taking a leave of absence. I mean and I hadn't even mentioned that he's dating a twenty two year old. I don't think that I don't think that Notre Dame is liking what they're seeing out of out of The Bill Belichick show right now. So I yeah, I think it's or yeah. Yeah, sorry. I d I don't Jackson: UNC, you said Notre Dame. I know what you meant, but Yeah, North Carolina. Davis: think that they're liking what they're seeing out of the Bill Belichick show. So I th I think those are kind of the most those are definitely the most likely, but I don't think that those are necess I mean they're bigger names, but I don't think that they're a surprise. I did add some surprises in here. Lincoln Riley. His name always always kinda comes comes up every once in a while when they lose to somebody that they shouldn't have. You got you got Dion Sanders. It's an interesting one. And then you got Jackson: I think that's Davis: And then you got your boy Jackson: I think Dion's gone. Davis: You got your boy Debore. Your boy Debore. If Alabama goes eight and four next year, what's I know what the fans are calling for. What what what is what is the AD doing? Jackson: I think you'll give another year with with with the schedule. Davis: Yeah. They did just they didn't didn't Jackson: I mean Davis: they just give a new contract, an extension? Jackson: Yeah, they did. They did. I don't I can't remember what that buyout is, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: eight and four, I mean, obviously he's not acceptable and people would be calling for him to be, you know, fired immediately, but the schedule's tough. I mean, you go at Kentucky, which is you know, whatever, and then you're home against South Carolina, play Georgia at home, you go to Baton Rouge. Get and at home and then at Tennessee. So And then Auburn. Sorry, Davis. We have Auburn Davis: Yeah. Jackson: at home. We we have Auburn at home. But I don't know. Davis: I would love nothing more for that to be his his his last game. That would be awesome. I love it. Jackson: Yeah, I don't I mean, I don't think he'll Davis: I love it. Jackson: go eight and four. And if he does go eight and four, I do think he will be on a short leash. but I don't think seven and Davis: Yeah, I I don't I don't think Jackson: five may may do it, but I don't think eight and four I don't think they're cutting the cord on eight and four. Davis: Yeah, I I'd agree with you. Yeah. Prop maybe a freshman Jackson: With a new quarterback, especially. Davis: quarterback. Jackson: You're probably a freshman quarterback, but Davis: Yeah. So some other names to look out for. Jackson: Talk about that down the road. Davis: Dave Aranda out of Baylor. I mean, he he was on the hot seat last year. He returned. Shane Beamer from South Carolina. Luke Fickle out of Wisconsin. I mean I think the t I think the two we mentioned earlier are just gonna happen and we'll we'll probably get a surprise from someone not listed. But I I don't I would be shocked if Lincoln Riley and Deborah got fired. And I think that I think I think Dion's got a long enough leash. I don't think they get rid of him. So I don't know. I mean I said the the storyline was multiple big name coaches. I I think that Norvell and Bilichak Belichak are big name, but I don't think that they're unexpected big names. So I would put this as less likely and probably not a huge impact because because I mean FSU and UNC aren't competing for a national championship this year and I don't think that we're gonna I don't think that we're gonna see a Lincoln Riley or a Calen Debore firing. Jackson: Right here. And the minor impact, not very likely. Davis: Yeah, that works for me. All right. How many more we got? We Jackson: Okay. Davis: got a few more. Jackson: yeah, we got two more. quickly on b back on that, you know, can staying on the hot seat thing. Quick question, then we'll move on. What record do you think Mike Norvell and Bill Belchick would need to have to save their job? Do Mike Norvell first. Davis: I don't even think that it's I don't even think I need to give you a record and I think I need to I think FSU needs to not start like two and two and three. If they start two and three, he's gone. Like I think he's I mean Jackson: Yeah, but I think it's a buyout thing. I mean, I think they would have moved on from last year if it wasn't a buyout thing, but Davis: I don't know why they I don't know why they didn't. I don't have their schedule pulled up, but I I I I think that I think that he's I think he's fired. I'm I'm shocked that they didn't fire him already. I can pull their schedule up real quick, but Jackson: No, it's fine. You don't have to pull the schedule. But I just wondering if there was a number Davis: I mean they play Alabama they play Alabama Jackson: that you thought would save the Yeah, they come to Tuscaloosa week three. Davis: Yeah, I think he gets fired after that. Jackson: It's gotta be a buyout thing. Like w y you're just gonna wait so you're keeping him around 'cause you think he's gonna win that game? Why would you keep him around just to wait till he loses to Alabama and then check Davis: No, I I Jackson: it off the box? Davis: I agree with you. I I agree. I I I didn't say it made sense. Jackson: We'll see. There's gotta be a there's gotta be a reason that we just we just don't know about. How about Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Belichick? You think he's gone, gone? Davis: I think unless he like complet I think they give him to the end of the year at this point, but I think that I think he needs Jackson: Eight, nine, ten? Davis: no, I don't not nine. I think you need they went four and eight last year. I think they need six Seven or six. Depends on which six. Jackson: You think six and six keeps him around? Davis: Probably not, but I would say seven seven and five. I think seven and five probably does. But at that point, like why are you still keeping Jackson: Yeah, that's fair. Davis: around? He's like eighty-five. Like you've seen like you've Jackson: That's true. Davis: seen what like you're not you're not making a like it the hire failed. It already failed. It already failed. You're just you're just delaying the inevitable. It failed already. Just cut ties. But I think I think yeah. Seven I think he's I don't know. I'd yeah, seven is probably that buffer zone. Jackson: Alright, moving on. so number nine, scheduling tough non con games will be punished more than rewarded, right? That's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: what that's what it is. Punished. Davis: Yeah. I mean, I think that this one goes hand in hand with what we said for the SEC nine game schedule. I mean, all the points that we made for the nine game schedule with the committee valuing wins and losses over I test and and advanced metrics, I think play into into this as well. So I mean, for right or wrong, for whatever you think, I mean, if Texas doesn't schedule Ohio State and plays a cupcake, they probably get in. so I think the Jackson: I'd definitely get in. Davis: I I think I think the past has has indicated that that that that one that loss column after a game matters more than who you played and how you looked. So while I don't agree with it and I wish that the committee would you know incentivize playing tougher non con games as a fan. like I said for the SEC nine game schedule, I'm gonna have to see it before I believe it. So unfortunately, I'm gonna go with it's probably likely that they're gonna punish teams more than they reward teams. And so I guess I'll just run through the best non con games of twenty twenty six. So we got Ohio State Eck Texas. obviously you win the game, that's a huge reward, but I don't I I don't think that we should I mean, you lose a you lose a one point game. I mean, are you should you be punished? No, you're you're you you showed that you were probably just as good as the winning team, but you lost. I mean, you y that shouldn't I shouldn't hurt you dramatically. But okay. Ohio State, Texas. You got Oklahoma at Michigan. Clemson at LSU. Florida State at Alabama. Louisville Ole Miss. That's a fun one. Wisconsin at Notre Dame at Lambo. Baylor at Auburn or Baylor versus Auburn in Atlanta. Arizona State, Texas AM, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, and Arkansas, Utah. So definitely some interesting games there. and I guess for my sake and for the fans' sake, it would be a shame if you lose that game and it and you get punished for it and it you get overly punished for it. Obviously wins and losses still matter, but you get overly punished for it. And what does that do? You're already seeing teams do it now. Schedule cupcakes. I mean Indiana just Indiana just what they just canceled a home at home. Jackson: They have all cupcakes. There there is Yeah. They don't have they don't have a single like legit non con game on their schedule. Ever. Davis: Yeah, for like tw until like yeah, like going out to twenty thirty five. Like they just can't they just cancelled Jackson: Yeah. Davis: it with somebody, a home and home. Was it no I think it was Notre Dame, but Jackson: Yeah, I can't remember what it was. Davis: it was like twenty twenty nine, twenty twenty thirty. But yep. They're they're going the route of Jackson: Yeah, I could be right. Davis: of just take it easy, which I mean, is what the committee has shown is the right move. So I like can't really blame but I wish the committee would kind of pivot and not only for our sake but you know for for the game's sake as well. All right, you got you gotta right right before we Jackson: Alright, so we're saying that is Davis: switch, you got a favorite non con game that you're you're looking looking most for? Or you just going Alabama FSU? Jackson: pull the list up. No. I mean I think the fur I think those those top two. I think Ohio State, Texas, and Oklahoma, Michigan are both very interesting. I don't I mean Davis: Yeah. Lou Louisville Ole Miss is very intriguing. I can't remember what week that was. It's not week one. I think it's like week three. It is week one. That that game I'm look I'm Jackson: Yeah it is. It's week one. I'm pretty sure it's week one in Nashville. Davis: looking forward to that game because we'll see one, you know, how does Ole Miss look without Lane Kiffin? But you know, I'm I'm buying what with what Jeff Brahm is selling. Louisville's got some talent. So I think that'll be an interesting one. Jackson: Yeah, they do. They got a good team. Davis: and yeah, I guess it is week one, so that'll be a fun one to to watch, to kick it off. Jackson: Alright, moving on, last one. New coach and quarterback pairings will turn programs around. Davis: Yeah, so just a run through what we got this year, you know, obviously Lane Kiffin, Sam Levitt. With Auburn, we got Alex Gullish, Byron Brown. Florida, we got Jun John Sumraw the Georgia Tech transfer A Aaron Philo, who that is projected. I think there's still technically a quarterback battle going on. out of Kentucky you got Will Stein and Kenny Minche. Penn State, another quarterback coach move, I guess, from Iowa State with Matt Campbell and Rocco Beck. And then Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker, who went from North Texas to Oklahoma State. so don't have a whole lot of re I mean, this this we got a large list here. We don't looking back l last year and previous years, we don't have a whole lot of, you know, evidence to go off of. Last year we had Dan Mullen and Anthony Calandria, who they did well. they were both new at UNLV. You had Bill Belichick and Gio Lopez, shout out James Clemens. That didn't go too well. Jackson: Shut up. Go jet. Davis: if you go back two years, you have Kurt Signetti and Curtis Rourke, who obviously went to the playoffs. So not a whole lot of of data to go off of. but for my take, I would say that, you know, I think I think it's probably somewhere in the middle of likelihood and probably somewhere in the middle of championship impact. I mean none of these teams outside of LSU are really championship contenders. so I think we've kind of throughout the topics have kind of touched on each of these teams and and players and coaches. but yeah, that's probably Jackson: Yeah. Agreed. Davis: where I'd slot Jackson: All right. Davis: Sweet. Well, I like what the board's looking, looking like. and we'll get over to our championship contender tier list. Jackson: Alright. Let's let's jump into the second second segment we got we got for the episode today, Davis. You wanna you wanna talk us through that one? While I pull it up? Davis: Yeah. So we talked through storylines. Now we're gonna give y'all some some actual takes on specific teams. so we have a couple different tiers, all ranking from you know championship favorite to outside the playoff. and then we have the top, I believe it's 17 teams based on Vegas odds to win the national championship. so we're gonna go through one by one and just classify them as whether they're a title contender, you know, playoff caliber, so on and so forth. Jackson: All right. Davis: All right. and then so for Jackson: You wanna kick us off here? Davis: the audio listeners, we have the championship odds on the x axis. So the more left the team is is indicates that Vegas is higher on that team, the more right the team is when we when we place them on the the tier list, the less their odds are. Jackson: Yeah, so i I guess it's since kinda backwards, right? So instead of you wanna be in the top left quad. Davis: Yeah, top top left is us saying that they're championship contenders and Vegas saying they're championship contenders. So I guess what what team do you wanna get into first? Jackson: Go to start with Ohio State, I guess. Davis: Yeah, let's do it. I guess Ohio State, you know, they're the odds on favorite according to the most recent odds that we have. can you can you read off what those what those odds are? Jackson: Ohio State, yeah, they are plus five fifty. Davis: Plus five fifty. Okay. why don't why don't you lead Jackson: They're the favorite. Davis: us Yeah, why don't you lead us off? You tell us where you'd put them, I'll give you my take and we can we can see where we agree. So this is a consensus mic check list. So we'll have to it Jackson: Yeah. This will be interesting 'cause we're gonna have to agree we're gonna have to find a way to somehow Davis: Yeah, so if if we if if we disagree on somewhere then we're gonna have to argue it and we'll we'll see who prevails. Jackson: Alright, Ohio State I will put them as title favorites. And I'll and I'll have multiple title favorites, obviously. I guess we both will, but I would group them in that category. I just think with Julian Say and Jeremiah Smith coming back, you know they're gonna be good on on defense, they always are. They stole two starters from Alabama and Quay Russo and James Smith. I just think it's hard not to put them as as title favorites, so I'd probably I'd probably throw Ohio State up there and and just kind of take the easy way out and put put up top as tit as the title favorites. Davis: Yeah, I I think that they're probably the safest team in the country, you know. Really good quarterback. Jackson: Yeah, it's a safe play. Davis: Yeah, really good quarterback, you know, generational wide receiver and Jeremiah Smith, but I maybe I have somewhat of a hot take and you know, most of my takes are rooted in analysis and stats and, you know, being able to justify it from what's occurring on the field. but the take that I have for Ohio State is not that. It is it's completely a vibes take. and I I'll get into that. Do you do you know who their new O C is? They just they just hired him this year. Jackson: For the NFL, right? NFL guy? Davis: Yeah, he he was on Pittsburgh last year. O C at the Pittsburgh Steelers last year. Jackson: Arthur Smith. Davis: Yeah, he is their new OC. and and I was I am a Falcons fan. And he was the former head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. And I will tell you that watching him coach the Falcons was the single-handedly most frustrating thing that I've ever had to do. Nothing that he did made any sense at all. The Falcons had B. John Robinson, and anytime we would get inside the red zone, inside the 10, this I'll I'll watch my words. This this coach would would defer to end of rounds to Johnu Smith, the backup tight ends. I I I saw him run halfback sweep. Pass plays where like where the where we're pitching it to the running back and then the running back is throwing it. wait, the running back that got the pitch was Johnny Smith. This guy makes no damn sense at all. He will like Jeremiah Smith is elite, generational. Julian Saiyan is great. I I am stamping that he will find a way to derail that team. And and I I derail might be a little harsh because I mean, I think that they're championship contenders, but I'm not putting them in the in the title, the title favorites. That guy, like Arthur Smith, if you're if you're listening to this, you ruined my Sundays. I hated watching you call a game. I don't I don't know who the Ohio State backup tight end is. But whoever it is is is is gonna is gonna have games where he out targets Jeremia Smith. Like he just What Arthur Smith does makes no damn sense at all. So for that reason, for all the biases that I had after watching him for s for a few years, I am I'm not putting them I'm not putting them in the title favorite. I don't have any stats to justify it other than if you were a Falcons fan and you watched Arthur Smith call plays, y y you you wanted to bleach your eyes. That guy sucks. I I hate Arthur Smith. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Did did that sell you? Jackson: no, but Davis: You didn't watch any Falcons games if it if it didn't sell you. Jackson: I mean, I do watch Falcons games as a Bucks fan and had some decent decent success in the in the division lately, so you may have you may have somewhat of a point. I don't know. I just have a hard time believing that Ryan Day's not gonna have his hand in that in that offense at all. Being an offensive guy, I just don't think he's gonna let Arthur Schm take the offense and run with it, especially if things start going sideways early. I mean, they come out of the gates and play Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Texas, so Davis: Yeah, I would hope so. I I mean that's just that take is just Jackson: I'll put we can put in in legitimate contenders for you. If if that makes you feel better, we'll put there. Davis: Alright. Yeah, yeah. That take that take was just completely s out of spite. I just I I've seen enough of Arthur Smith. but the rest of the takes I'll I'll have a little more evidence based, but that's where I'm going with that. Jackson: Alright, well now that we've I was I was expecting to put them up top. So do you wanna resume doing title favorites or you wanna go team by team, how you wanna do this? Davis: Yeah, let's let's get our title favorites out of the way. Yeah, yeah. Jackson: I guess start doing title favorites. All right, you can kick it off if you want. Davis: So I I guess I alluded to it earlier in the pod. my title favorite, and you're already already going to that team, Oregon. I think I think this is the year that Dan Lannon gets it done. You know, they brought they brought back Dante Moore, got a lot of talent around him, brought in Koy Peric. the the safety for Minnesota. I think on paper they're the best team. And I know there's a lot of arguments that Ohio State might be the safest team. but I think that I think that Oregon's got the highest upside. So that that's my case for for them being at the top. Jackson: Okay. I can get behind that. I mean I I I agree with with everything you said. I think Oregon's gonna be good. I just don't know if I don't know if they can get over the hump. but I I'm good with I'm good with sticking them up there with with title favorites. I think I think they're gonna be really good. So we Davis: Yeah. Jackson: we can keep them there. For me, I would probably Davis: Okay. Jackson: gosh, there's just so many. I just don't have a team that just jumps out of me as as the team that I think is gonna win it all. I think I'd probably go with Notre Dame. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: they return CJ Carr. They're gonna have a you know a great defense. I feel like their offense will be solid. They play you know their schedule's not you know anywhere close to what Ohio State or or Alabama or Georgia or Tennessee. A lot of these other teams are going to be playing. So I think I think Notre Dame's path to the playoff is going to be significantly easier than a lot of these other schools And I think I think their team's good. I mean, I know we we went over at last segment that they return the most return the most guys, but That they return the they return the most production, right? It's re it's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: production, not just total players. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: And I know we kinda said that doesn't that's not always the biggest indicator of success, but I think they have a good roster. I think they have a good coach. I like Marcus Freeman a lot, so I I'd probably go probably go Notre Dame. I mean you could argue Texas or or Georgia or these other guys would be just as good of a pick, but I think Notre Dame Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I think Notre Dame finally gets it done this year, so I'll go I'll go Notre Dame. Davis: Yeah, I don't have a a big argument against that. I mean, CJ Carr, third best odds to go number one behind Dante Moore and Arch Manning. You know, they have Leonard Moore at corner, probably the best corner in college football. You know, the big the big question marks are are how do you replace the two first round running backs that went this in this past NFL draft? Jeremiah Love, Jadarian Price. but I mean really that's the only con you can think of with them. but I do believe in CJ Carr. they have a good receiver in Jordan Faison. so no no big arguments for me. I'm good with having them in the the the top tier. And so they are Jackson: Anyone else? Davis: the yeah, they are the second are they second or third in title odds? Second. Okay. So not off the not too off the off chalk there. Jackson: Yeah. Pretty chalky, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I don't see another team. I would say if I had to pick another team it'd probably be Georgia. I know Miami's a popular Davis: Yeah. Jackson: pick, Texas. What do you what what would you go with as a if you c I mean you think there's another one that you want to put in title favorites or you think a lot of these other schools w should be grouped in the legitimate contenders category? Davis: I think I think that'd probably round out my title favorite. I know that we don't have an SEC team listed, and a lot of that is that I don't think that there's a clear standout team from the SEC. So I think that they beat up on each other a little bit. so I'm good with ending that title favorite tier and rolling into the championship contender tier, and I'll let you kick it off. Jackson: I'll go Georgia. I think I think Georgia's still Georgia. I don't think they're going anywhere. I think, you know, last year they showed that they're, you know, still the dominant team in the SEC and Gunnar Shockton comes back. They return a lot of their guys on the offensive side of the ball and defense. So I think I think Georgia will be a force to be reckoned with come come playoff time. Davis: Yeah, I think that's probably where they should go. I think the only thing holding them back is, you know, we've seen, you know, Stockton's look good at times. Or he's looked good a lot of times, but I don't know if we've really seen like how good k can Stockton be? Can he be the bus driver and not the bus Jackson: I agree. Davis: rider? and I'm I'm not sold on that. he's definitely the worst quarterback out of the three that we've talked about so far. so for that reason I think that that's why I'm not gonna put them in the title favorite, but I think they definitely deserve to be in the title contender. So I'll bring up I'll bring up a team that might be a little down the list, but title contender, I want to go with Miami, the the team that was in the national championship last year, lost Carson Beck, brought in Darien Minsa from Duke, you know, obviously have You know, Malachi Tony returning for his sophomore year. I've been high on Minsa. You know, he can he can excel with his legs or his arm. You know, Malachi Tony is a elite playmaker. They did lose the the two first round pass rushers. in Jackson: That's gonna be tough. Davis: yeah, in Bain and Mesador. but you know, ACC's weaker. I don't believe in Clemson. So I don't think that there's any reason that they shouldn't be representing the ACC come playoff time. Jackson: I agree. I agree. I I mean I definitely think it's gonna be tough losing those pass rushers. Obviously that's a big part big part of their defense, but as you said, the ACC is I mean Davis: Mark Fletcher's a dog too. Put on a show Jackson: Yeah, I Davis: in the playoffs. So Jackson: Yeah, I I I just I agr I don't think anyone else is gonna is gonna represent the ACC in the playoffs. So I I think if Miami gets in they could definitely make some noise. So I'm good with putting them up there with legitimate contenders. Davis: Okay. you got I got one more legitimate contender on my list. what about you? Jackson: Yeah. Davis: And I don't think it's the t I don't think it's the team that you probably have. Jackson: I mean if if I'm if if I'm looking at this list, I would probably be choosing between Texas or Indiana. I think Texas can win it all. Honestly, I think they got the guys to do it. Can you trust Sark what you know, for consecutive big games in a row to to pull off these wins? Texas would be the the team I would slide in there. Indiana You know Signetti's been good, obviously. He's been great. What he's done is remarkable, but having you know all right. Davis: let's start let's start with Texas. You made you made the Texas you made the Texas legitimate contenders bull case. I'll I'll I'll be the the low man and I'll give you the the bear case for Texas and we'll we'll see if one of us kind of convinces the other. So you know hard to deny the talent that that Texas has has brought in. You know, obviously Cam Coleman Hollywood Smothers from from NC State, the running back. elite roster. I think I'm just I think I'm just a little lower on Arch Manning than the rest of us. I don't I don't know if I'm buying into the hype. You know, he started off started off not great, started to turn it on to the rest of the sea or at the end of the season. And I think everybody's making the assumption that whatever he was at the very end of the season, he's taking a jump from that. And and I'm being a little more cautious with it. And I'm saying, well. I'm just not gonna throw away what he was for seventy five percent of the season and just grab the last four or five games. I'm taking the whole season in its entirety and I'm saying this is what Arch Manning was last year. And then do I think he takes a step from the whole season? Yes. But I don't think that that step is the same step that that a lot of people are expecting out of him. So for that reason I would put them in playoff caliber. I don't think that they're a legitimate contender. I think that the the SEC's th gonna beat up on each other. So yeah, I mean that's the main reason. But it's hard to deny the the talent that that Texas has on their team right now. Jackson: I think my counter to that would be this Texas team this year kind of reminds me a lot of the 2024 Ohio State team. You know, everyone knew they were all in, they spent the money, they had their roster. Who was their quarterback? Well, Will Howard. Will Howard, too Kansas State guy, which, you know, he proved himself. He was good at Kansas State. Don't get me wrong, but still going from Kansas State to Ohio State's a big jump. And You know, in order to win the national championship, he didn't have to make those outstanding plays that we've seen a lot of these quarterbacks have to make in order for them their team to win these big games. I he just had to really take care of the ball and not mess up. You know, almost be somewhat of a game manager with Jeremiah Smith and all the weapons he had. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: That's kind of the that's kind of the thought I have with Texas. I mean, I agree, you know, you Arch, you know, he got a lot better towards the end of the season. and I can see, you know, someone having questions on on him and if if he will if he's able to Davis: Is the four game sample size of him being really good outweigh the previous eight game sample size of him being okay? And so that's where I'm at, but you do make a good point with you know what, they can s they can be legitimate contenders. Yeah. Jackson: I think he can be okay. I think they can win the Davis: They can be legitimate contenders with him being somewhere in between. And I think he will be, I think at the very least he will be somewhere in between. Just with that Jackson: Right. Davis: the the amount of rot like Ryan Wingo. Cam Coleman, Hollywood's mother, like they have Jackson: Exactly. Davis: they have the talent so Yeah, I'm I'm good with legitimate committers. Jackson: I can see that's what I'm saying. Like he doesn't have to be great for them to be a legitimate contender. Like he can be mediocre as long as he takes care of the ball, I think, you know, I would definitely say Texas a legitimate contender. So then I win that one? Davis: Yeah. Okay. I I I'm I'm good with I'm good with that one. You you can take that one. I think I think we both kind of alluded to Indiana being in that that tier as well. You know what? I'm gonna not a whole lot to say. Everybody's familiar with Indiana. You know, they're bringing a new quarterback, but Kurt Signeti is what he is. They're they're th since since we started talking about this pod and and like thinking about where the team should should fall. They've added more guys based on whatever the hell these new rules are with college football. So I think they added a defensive tackle that started for them last year. I think they added an O lineman too. you know what I'm I'm I'm good with them being in the the championship contender. I'm not gonna doubt Cinnati at this point. Josh Hoover, Nick Marsh, Jackson: You think Davis: the two transfers, I'm good with it. Jackson: You think Indiana can You think they can do it with the with the bullseye on their back? Davis: I mean I think that's part of the reason that Jackson: I mean last year Davis: they're not in the the the title contender, but Yeah, I mean I think I think they're I think that this is another safe spot. You know, we're not making a bold take with Indiana here. so Jackson: Yeah, I agree. I'm fine to leave him there. Davis: that's kind of where I'm at. I don't have a strong stance. I think you could make the case for title contender. I think you could make the case for one lower tier, but you know what, they're like fifth in title odds according to this. So I don't think we're going out on a limb saying that we have as a as a playoff, a legitimate playoff contender. You know? Jackson: Yep, agree. Davis: All right. So just to recap, title favorites, we got Oregon and Notre Dame. We where we differ the most so far with Vegas is we have Ohio State, who's the number one title favorite. We have them in the second tier, and then we have Miami, who is the sixth favorite as the in the second tier as well. All right, let's kick it off with playoff caliber. I'm gonna go with Tex A and Jackson: I think this is gonna be pretty Yeah. We can go pretty quick with this. I mean I would just All the SEC teams and probably Texas Tech. Or mostly SEC. We can go one Davis: Yeah, that's Jackson: by one, but that's probably where I would imagine this is gonna land. Davis: Yeah. I mean, just a quick case for Texas AM, you know, Marcel Reed, you know, he showed flashes last year, obviously didn't look great in the playoff game, but I think the talent is there. He just needs to be more consistent. They lost KC Concepcion, but brought in Isaiah Horton to pair with Mario Kraver, who was very good last year. so I like the I like the skill positions around them. you add another year of experience to Marcel Reed. You hope he continues to progress. I think that their playoff caliber. Jackson: Agreed. I'll see you. Davis: yeah, make the case for LSU. Jackson: I don't have the case. I th I figured we were just gonna go all SEC here. No, let's I'll I'll I'll I'll make another safe play. Let's let's go old miss. Are you good with that? Or do I need to fight for old miss here? Davis: I think you need to fight for Ole Miss. Ole Miss is I I'm I'm lower in Ole Miss. So Jackson: So I'm not particularly high on Ole Miss. I I would I would label them as playoff caliber, but I think if I had to predict Ole Miss a season, I think they are a team that are gonna win some some of the big games. Like, you know, LSU comes into town, I think it's week three. I think I'm predicting Ole Miss to win that game, but I could also see Ole Miss slipping against someone like, you know, Florida or Kentucky, I don't know who's on their schedule, but a team that a a game they are supposed to win I could see them losing, but so I guess Davis: Yeah. Jackson: maybe you know, I'm I guess I'm arguing the other way for them to be maybe a fringe playoff team. Yeah, maybe I am maybe I am on your side. Davis: So yeah, sounds like you're on my side. You know, I mean yeah. I didn't even I didn't even have to make an argument. This was easy. I mean, I guess I'll say my piece anyways. I mean Trinidad Shameless, very good. Kwan Lacey, very good. also I'm a strong believer in Lane Kiffin and he's make he makes the offense so much easier for everybody around him. W one of the better offensive minded coaches. He's gone. He was obviously gone for the playoffs last year, but I think that they could kind of ride what he installed then. So I think starting new, I'm just I'm just not gonna buy into that their playoff caliber and I think that their French playoff, mainly because I am I I I do think that Lane Kiffin was was the main driver of that team last year. Jackson: Yeah, I y I agree. I agree. A hundred percent. So Davis: Okay. So I mean so I think that provides a a nice segue into LSU, who I will put in playoff caliber, because of the reasons that I made against Ole Mess, I think apply to LSU. And I know I kind of talked earlier about how I wasn't sure about Sam Levitt, but I I do believe in Lane Kiffin. I think that Sam Levitt can be Not as good of a quarterback as we think and still look and put up the numbers like a good quarterback that people expect. and you know, they obviously brought in so much talent, you know, they're one of the bigger spenders in the portal. so I I'm putting them in the the playoff caliber. So we got from the SEC, we have Georgia and legitimate contenders, got I mean unless you want to make the the bear case. LSU and Texas A and and playoff caliber. Jackson: I'm gonna I'm gonna have to fight you on I'm gonna fight you on that one, I think. Davis: All right, let's hear it. Jackson: Alright, so this is just straight up based off of their schedule. I mean I think It's a lot of new talent on a new team. And I think, you know, the schedule's just tough. I mean, you're assuming, I think, that nine and three, a nine and three LSU team is getting in the playoffs. Am I correct? Or you think they're going to so let me read you off some of their some of their tough games. You got Clemson at home. Adle Miss. Add'll miss. Davis: That's a win, Clinton. That's a win. That's a win. Jackson: It's win, that's a lo that's a a hundred percent win. You got Davis: No, not a hundred percent, but I'm pr I'm pr i if I had to pick a yes or no, I'm putting yes as to win. Jackson: Okay. You got Tex A and at home? Davis: I I mean I like Texas Jackson: You go Davis: AM, so I'm putt that's a that's a toss up. Jackson: You at Kentucky, I wouldn't say that's super tough. They could No, well never mind. at Auburn. Davis: That's a loss. Jackson: Okay, these these are all these games are all consecutive. So you have at Auburn, home against Alabama, home against Texas, and at Tennessee. And then you have at Arkansas to end the year in a rivalry game after you cut go through that four game gauntlet. So that's that's really my that my case for LSU. I I could see them losing to Ole Miss. A and M's a toss up. They hadn't beaten Bama in years. Texas is a team that we have up there that You know, we obviously are thinking that they're gonna win a lot of games. And then you have to go to Knoxville, which is always, you know, a hard place to play, and then don't count out Arkansas or Auburn. You know, but especially with those two games being on the road, so I Davis: Yeah. Jackson: don't know, I just feel like it's a lot of moving parts for LSU. I would I would probably put them in the in the fringe playoff section just for the sake of their schedule. Or because of the sake of their schedule. Davis: Okay. I'll I'll give you that if if you concede that I think we put Texas Tech in the Jackson: Yes. Davis: playoff caliber and them being a worse team than LSU. Does that make sense? So completely based on on conference. Yeah. Yeah. So Jackson: A hundred percent. A hundred percent. Yeah. Someone's gotta win oops. Someone's gotta win the big twelve. So yeah, I'm good with that. Davis: Okay. Yep. Someone's gonna Jackson: That's my case for Texas Techs. Someone's gotta win the Big Twelve and they spend the most money, so I would take them Davis: Yeah. Jackson: to win the Big Twelve. It's an easy it's an easy out, it's a safe play, but I don't I couldn't tell you another team that I think could to give a run for it. Other than maybe BYU I don't know, Kansas State's got a good Davis: Okay. Yeah. Jackson: team this year, but yeah, we'll we'll leave it at that. Davis: Could Oklahoma State be a sleeper? That could be a fun one. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I I wouldn't say that they could maybe, maybe. I I don't know how that I'm not there yet. Right. Yeah. Davis: Nah, I'm I'm I'm not there yet. I mean that that's just North Texas from last year, but that could be a fun one. So why don't you read off who we have left and the easy ones we can sort out and then the the some of the better ones we can debate on. Jackson: All right, so we have left we have we have Oklahoma, Bama, US C, Michigan, Tennessee, and Florida. Davis: Okay. So I'll just start off with saying Tennessee, probably a freshman quarterback. I mean he was a five star Faison, I believe his name is. and then you got Florida who starting a new quarterback, probably Aaron Phylon. I'm shocked. yeah. Yeah, I'm shocked Jackson: I'm good y I I yeah. No. Davis: that Florida had the seventeenth highest odds. That was I mean, I We we included the top seventeen si seventeen teams based on the Vegas odds. Shocked that they're even in there. So I don't even think a case needs to be made. Put them at the the bottom outside looking in. I'd put Tennessee there too. Jackson: Good with that. Davis: I'd put Michigan there as well. I'm not I'm just not completely sold. I know Kyle Whittingham is coming in. thought he was a pretty good coach at at Utah, but year one, yeah, not sold. which leaves us with Oklahoma, Alabama, and USC. I'd probably put Jackson: We'll address the elephant in the room last if you want to do that. Davis: Yeah, I'll put I would put I think I'd put USC at the bottom as well. Jackson: I don't think they're winning the Big Ten and I think that's the only way they're getting the playoff. Davis: Yeah. I I I like Jaden Maiava. I think he's I think he's good. but I mean they're they're a given to lose like forty two to thirty five to some team that they shouldn't have. Jackson: Yeah. Second that. I agree. Davis: Yeah. so Jackson: Oklahoma. This is an interesting one. A lot of people are high on Oklahoma. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Where where do you got where you have Oklahoma? Davis: I got I got in the fringe playoff tier. I think they they go with LSU and all mess. Jackson: I agree. I agree. Davis: I mean that defense is gonna be elite. Vr Brent Venables, you know, has shown consistently that he's going to have a great defense. don't love the skill the skill players around John Matir, but I I think John Mateer, you know, he started off really hot, broke his hand against Auburn, missed some weeks, came back, wasn't great. so I think he kinda left a bad taste in people's mouth with the way that he ended the season, which is kind of the inverse of what Arch Manning did, where he started off great or started off poor and then ended great. I think both of them are somewhere in between. And then you add the the one year progression to John Mateer. And I think I think I think Oklahoma's gonna be good. And I don't think that I think with the defense being as good as it's going to be, John Mateer doesn't have to be Superman. So I I mean, I think they deserve to be in that that fringe playoff spot, which I guess is kind of on par with with what Vegas says as well. Jackson: Yeah, I would agree with that. Davis: All right. W where you put in Alabama? Jackson: I would say their playoff caliber. Honestly. I I think I think the defense is gonna be elite. Which, you know, I I think this team is gonna look like or could look like a lot of the the early year Saban teams. really good defense. they're gonna you know, obviously working on establishing a run game, bringing in a new O line coach. I know the quarterback's a question, but For me the biggest question is the offensive line. if the offensive line Davis: Yeah. Jackson: can be decent, I think they'll make the playoff. If the offensive line is not good, I would say fringe or outside the playoff. But if if you could tell me today that Davis: Yeah. Jackson: our offensive line would be fine, I would have no hesitation putting us a playoff caliber. But I'm open I'm open to what you have hearing what you have to say, I you know, putting them on the fringe playoff case would be in that category I think would be, you know, understandable. So let's hear it. What Davis: Yeah. Jackson: you got? Davis: So I so I got fringe playoff case. I I do agree with you that I think that the defense will be very good. but I have a lot of concerns with the offense. I mean, last year with a talented O line, that O line was not good. Caden Proctor, first round pick, O line was not good. You you bring in You have to replace him and you already said that the O line is a question mark. I don't think that Calen De Boer has proven anything from from how he can develop that O line. I mean, he's had talent and it's still underperformed. So I think in the absence of talent, I have even more question marks. so I kind of referenced it earlier, but you know, the season hasn't started. We don't have a lot to go off of. With as much turnover of roster that we have, it's hard to put numbers to anything. We already talked about how returning to production doesn't necessarily isn't the end all be all. but S P plus, which is a ratings metric, kinda tries to, you know, paint the picture of what each teams are going in. And I know I can already hear people saying, this is just BS anal analytics stuff. Well, it happens to correlate very heavily with the Vegas odds. So there is some signal there. So you mentioned Alabama's defense being good. This SP plus has Alabama's defense at number four in the country. Obviously very impressive. It has their their offense as number 32 in the country. Why? They probably have a freshman quarterback starting. They probably have a freshman quarterback starting. I'm not buying into an Alabama team that has O-line question marks, putting them in anything higher than fringe playoff when they're in the SEC. Fringe playoff and you're in the SEC with the tough schedule is the difference between like a hard schedule is the difference between making a playoff and not making playoff. Like if they're in the big the big 12, like Texas Tech, yeah, put them in as default. But tough schedule, questionable O line, new quarterback, I I just I just can't go there. And the numbers that the predictive numbers are are in agreement as well. So I think while the the logo and the the the the narrative around Alabama might say, you know, playoff caliber, I I think that the advanced numbers are disagreeing with you. Jackson: I'm fine with that. I'm fine with putting them there. I mean, think it's just kind of a prove it thing. You know, there's there's no numbers or stats I can give you that would suggest it would be a good idea to put them in playoff caliber. It's just kind of a prove it thing. I think the offensive line will hold up okay. I think they'll be well I think they'll do fine. I just don't know how well they'll perform, you know, week after week after week and if Keelan Russell or Austin Mack are able to win these consecutive big games when it matters most. So I'm fine. I'm fine with putting him in French playoff case and leaving it at that. A lot of people are down at Bayema this year, so I'm I'm good Davis: Yeah. Jackson: with putting outside the playoff if if you want to. But we'll stick Davis: Yeah. Jackson: him there. We'll stick French playoff case. Davis: So I guess our biggest disagreements with I guess Vegas, you know, it should be a a straight horizontal or diagonal line. You know, we have Ohio State, the championship favorite according to Vegas. In the second tier, we have Miami, who is the sixth or seventh ranked favorite. we have in the second tier along with Ohio State. and then everything else is kind of kind of chalk from there. lotta lot of SEC teams in that fringe case, which I think I think I think that should come to as no surprise to anyone. Jackson: Yeah. No, I I just think the SEC is it's gonna be Yeah, Davis: Gonna beat up on each other. Jackson: it's gonna be jumbled up this year. adding that nine nine game conference schedule is gonna be it's gonna make things more interesting. So we'll see. We'll see how the committee values that extra game and shrink the schedule when it comes to when it comes to selection selection time. So Davis: Yeah. And and we talked about it earlier, how we thought that the SEC nine game schedule would hurt more than it helped. And if that's the case, that so so that's what we thought. So that's why we have all these SEC teams as fringe. If if we had the confidence that the nine game schedule would not hurt and the committee would, you know, not like take everything at face value and look into the metrics a little more, I would have more confidence moving up some of those SEC teams into the the higher tier. But like I said earlier, un until they do that, I'm gonna remain skeptical. All right. So that'll wrap it up for our championship contender tiers. this was just a high level overview. in the next episodes we'll go conference by conference and deep dive on a each team on a a deeper level. so be on the lookout for that. Jackson: sorry. Davis: Alright, so I got a game. with this being our first pod, the theme is first. So I've chosen a player that fits into the theme of first, and that could mean anything. so I'm gonna give you five hints. Each hint gets progressively easier, and we'll see at which hint you can guess the player on. And so for anybody listening, they can play along too. but yeah, let's get started. You ready? Jackson: Hit me. Hit me. Davis: All right, hint number one. As a true freshman, I wasn't the team's primary starter, but I still scored 13 touchdowns. And we'll we'll let you get one guess per hint. That's gonna be tough. As a true freshman, I wasn't my team's primary starter, but I still scored 13 touchdowns. Jackson: I don't wanna guess this because this is my player. I th I don't think it's my player. Yeah, I'm not gonna guess it Davis: Okay, all right, well don't we don't we'll don't guess then 'cause I don't I don't wanna you already ru you already ruined it. Already ruined it. Dude, did we select Jackson: No, I d no I didn't. Davis: the Well don't guess your pla did we select the same damn player? Jackson: No, I may this may not be my player. I actually don't know this. I I don't know if this Davis: Okay. Jackson: if this is my player. It definitely could be. as a tru ways as a true freshman, this this player did not start, but they scored thirteen touchdowns. Davis: Yes. Jackson: I'm gonna I just wanna s I wanna hear the next hint. So I'm gonna say Derek Davis: yeah. Jackson: Henry. Davis: No. All right. Jackson: Okay. Davis: Hint number two. During my college career, I was part of teams that went forty eight and seven, which includes a twenty two game win streak. Jackson: How re wait, is this recent? Is this like a recent? Davis: I mean this is we'll say this is in the last this is since we've been alive. Jackson: Okay. Okay. A twenty two game win streak? Davis: Yeah. Jackson: No this isn't my player. Davis: All right, I'll read it again. During my college career, I was part of teams that went for I'm reading it for I'm Jackson: No, I heard you. I know what it is. I know what it is. I Davis: reading it for the listeners. Jackson: Okay, read it again. Davis: During my college career, I was part of teams that went forty-eight and seven, including a twenty-two game win streak. Jackson: Reggie Bush? Davis: No, that was a good guess though. I was hoping that the twenty two game win streak would lead you to to one of those USC teams. All right. This is this is where things should start to click. My team won two national championships during my college career, but I was the starting Jackson: Davis. Davis: quarterback for only one of them. Jackson: Davis, we have the same player. Tim Tiva? Davis: Wow. Yeah. Wow. What a what a what an end to the pod, man. Golly. All right. Well, let me let me read off the rest of my hints and then I'll and then we'll Jackson: W no way. Okay, you wanna hear your hands? Your hands were w Okay. Davis: go to yours. Number four, I was selected in the first round of the NFL draft and later spent five seasons playing in the minor league baseball. hint number five. I I became the first Sophomore in college football history to win the Heisman. Jackson: I can't believe it picked the same player. That's crazy. That is wild. Yeah, because when you read the 13 Davis: Yeah, that that's unfortunate. Jackson: touchdowns things, I was like, Yeah, that's Tim Tebow. A hundred percent. All Davis: All right, let's hear your hints. Jackson: right, my hints were this player had Alabama and his final two schools coming out of high school. Davis: Tim Taber. Jackson: You would've gotten that? No Davis: No. Jackson: way you would have gotten that. Alright, my second hint was SEC. third hint was played Major League Baseball. Fourth hint Davis: I would have Jackson: Yeah. My hints were kinda easy. Davis: I would I think I I think I might have gotten it on the third one because I would have been like Russell Wilson, no, didn't play in the SEC. I think I think I might have gotten there. I think I I think I would've gotten there. Jackson: Yeah. And then the second player the sec the so first sophomore player ever won the Heisman Trophy. And then Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the last one was he went to College of Florida. Davis: Well What a what a way to end it. Jackson: See if we can do it again next week. Davis: All right, well we'll see Jackson: Listen. Davis: y'all. We're I think we're gonna record our conference breakdown and we'll post it not too l not too long after this. Jackson: Yeah, we'll see let's see how fast I can edit these these clips. That's how fast that's how fast this will be out. So all right, thanks everyone for listening. Hope we didn't sound Hope it didn't sound too too dumb. Hope you enjoyed it. If you did, give us a like, give us a follow, and until next time. See you guys. Davis: There it is. There it is. Alright, so