Latest / The President's Daily Brief / September 29th, 2026: Washington and Tehran Negotiating Behind the Scenes & Ukraine Gains Ground in Donetsk

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September 29th, 2026: Washington and Tehran Negotiating Behind the Scenes & Ukraine Gains Ground in Donetsk · The President's Daily Brief

0:00
Hey,
0:00
Mike Baker here.
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just join us at PDBpremium.com.
0:41
It's Tuesday,
0:42
the twenty-ninth of September.
0:43
Look at that.
0:44
We are almost
0:45
done with another month.
0:46
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:48
I'm Mike Baker.
0:49
Your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:51
Oh,
0:52
and look at that coming to you this morning
0:54
from an airport lounge somewhere in an undisclosed airport location.
0:58
Ah,
0:59
the
0:59
harsh lighting
1:00
of an airport lounge.
1:02
Alright,
1:03
let's get briefed.
1:04
First up,
1:04
the latest U.S.Iran peace effort
1:07
may not be completely dead after all,
1:09
although you'd be hard pressed to locate a pulse,
1:12
with mediators reportedly still working as both sides
1:15
dig in over nuclear concessions and sanctions relief.
1:19
Later in the show,
1:20
Ukraine says it continues to gain ground in northern Donetsk,
1:24
retaking territory
1:26
as its forces try to disrupt Russia's latest push in the east.
1:30
Plus
1:30
two North Korean soldiers captured while fighting
1:33
for Russia have triggered a diplomatic dispute
1:36
between South Korea and Ukraine.
1:38
And in today's Back of the Brief,
1:40
a new report says Egypt's intelligence chief
1:43
personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
1:47
before the 7 October attacks,
1:49
a claim that the Israeli Prime Minister
1:51
disputes.
1:53
But first,
1:53
today's PDB spotlight.
1:56
Yesterday we reported that President Trump had rejected Iran's latest proposal
2:00
to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the fighting,
2:04
but today
2:05
it looks like diplomacy is continuing,
2:07
well,
2:08
in some fashion.
2:09
Supposedly
2:11
mediators say indirect talks between Washington and Tehran
2:14
are continuing,
2:15
and despite Trump's public rejection,
2:17
the proposal itself may not be dead.
2:19
Officials involved in the negotiations are describing slight
2:23
progress and positive signals from both sides.
2:25
Look at how optimistic they are,
2:27
even as the two governments remain far apart
2:29
on what any agreement would actually require.
2:32
Of course,
2:33
if I had a million riyal for every time
2:35
mediators said there was progress in these negotiations.
2:39
Well,
2:39
I'd have something like $10 or $20.
2:41
The biggest change apparently is what Washington now wants
2:44
to put at the center of those talks.
2:46
Iran's proposal focused heavily on reopening the Strait of Hormuz,
2:50
easing the US blockade,
2:51
and creating a short window for negotiations.
2:54
The regime wants Washington to back away from
2:56
some of the economic pressure now squeezing the country
2:59
and eventually return to the framework that
3:01
both sides discussed earlier this year,
3:04
and they reportedly
3:05
are asking for some of their frozen assets to be handed over.
3:08
But mediators are now reportedly pressing Iran to make some kind of
3:12
concession on its nuclear program as part of any broader agreement,
3:16
and that is a much harder task.
3:19
Iranian officials have publicly insisted they are
3:22
not prepared to make nuclear concessions.
3:24
Tehran is also demanding that Washington move
3:27
first by easing economic and military pressure
3:30
before expecting Iran to give up anything in return.
3:34
It almost sounds like Iran
3:35
still believes they're arguing from a position of strength.
3:38
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragshi said over the weekend
3:41
that Tehran remains open to diplomacy but also warned
3:45
that Iran is prepared for renewed fighting if negotiations fail,
3:49
so both sides are still talking,
3:52
reportedly,
3:53
but neither side appears eager to make the first major concession.
3:57
There is some indication though that Iran's public
3:59
position may be harder than its private one.
4:02
The Wall Street Journal reports that a senior Middle Eastern official
4:05
involved in the diplomacy believes that Iran had been close
4:08
to making compromises on its nuclear program earlier this year
4:12
during talks with Vice President JD Vance.
4:15
According to that official,
4:16
Tehran would likely want explicit assurances that Israel
4:20
would not launch another attack after any agreement.
4:24
Washington wants meaningful restrictions,
4:25
of course,
4:26
on Iran's nuclear program.
4:28
Iran wants relief from the blockade and sanctions,
4:31
along with some confidence
4:32
that making a deal will not simply leave it vulnerable
4:35
to another Israeli strike a few weeks or months later.
4:39
And of course complicating matters,
4:41
both sides appear to believe that they still have the leverage.
4:44
US officials believe the blockade is inflicting serious economic
4:47
damage and weakening Iran's position at the table.
4:50
The Iranian regime,
4:51
on the other hand,
4:52
Appears convinced that it can survive prolonged economic pressure
4:56
and withstand another round of American strikes if necessary.
5:00
Iran may also believe time could work in its favor politically.
5:03
Some regional officials
5:05
say that the Iranian regime is watching the US midterm elections
5:08
and calculating that Washington's willingness
5:10
to escalate could change afterward
5:13
if the Republicans lose control of the House and or the Senate.
5:17
At the same time,
5:18
there's no doubt that the economic pressure inside
5:21
the country is taking a serious toll.
5:23
The rial has continued to weaken.
5:25
Sanctions remain tight,
5:27
and Tehran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage
5:30
may not be what it was earlier in the war.
5:33
More oil is moving through the region,
5:36
and US officials argue that Iran is gradually losing some
5:39
of its ability to control the flow of shipping.
5:41
Regional officials say power inside Tehran is increasingly concentrated
5:46
around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
5:48
the IRGC.
5:50
And the IRGC has traditionally taken a much harder line toward the US
5:54
and may see compromise under pressure as a sign of weakness,
5:58
and that creates a difficult environment for the
6:01
mediators trying to keep these talks alive.
6:04
And for that,
6:04
I award myself yet again
6:06
the PDB statement of the obvious award.
6:09
Coming up next,
6:10
Ukraine claims they're gaining further ground in Donetsk
6:13
while two captured North Korean soldiers
6:16
spark a diplomatic dispute between Seoul and Kiev.
6:19
I'll be right back.
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Welcome back to the PDB.
7:36
When Ukraine first announced Operation Vivaldi earlier this month,
7:40
it aimed to repel Russian forces from
7:42
a dangerous approach toward Kiev's eastern strongholds.
7:45
Now
7:46
reports from the front line reveal how the
7:48
operation has pushed deeper into Russian occupied territory.
7:52
Ukrainian Brigadier General Andrey Beletsky has commanded
7:55
operations in the area since last month.
7:57
Speaking to Reuters,
7:58
he says his forces recaptured another 51 square kilometers,
8:02
that's roughly 20 square miles,
8:04
in northern Donetsk during what Kiev is calling the
8:07
third season
8:09
of the campaign.
8:10
That includes three settlements Ukraine says it's liberated,
8:13
along with two others where Ukraine has restored control.
8:16
As it stands,
8:17
Bletsky says Operation Vivaldi has recaptured 68 square miles,
8:21
which
8:22
for reference is an area slightly smaller than Washington DC
8:26
As we previously discussed on the PDB,
8:28
this campaign was formally announced earlier this month
8:31
as a counteroffensive in northern Donetsk,
8:34
uh,
8:34
focused around the approaches to the city of Liman.
8:37
The goal was to push Russian forces back from an area that
8:40
Moscow could use to pressure cities that
8:43
anchor Ukraine's so-called fortress belt of heavily
8:45
fortified cities and towns in Donetsk.
8:48
The operation's name Vivaldi refers to Antonio Vivaldi,
8:52
the Italian composer
8:53
best known for the Four Seasons.
8:55
Ukrainian commanders describe the operation in phases or seasons.
9:00
This is the 3rd,
9:01
and Keeps says it's become a turning point.
9:03
For more than 4 years,
9:04
this part of Donetsk has seen some of the war's toughest fighting,
9:08
with static entrenched lines,
9:09
grinding attacks,
9:10
and painfully incremental gains.
9:13
Around Liman,
9:14
Russian forces were trying to turn that pressure
9:17
into a route toward Ukraine's remaining strongholds in the region.
9:20
Ukraine is now saying it's pushed that effort back even further.
9:24
The Institute for the Study of War says
9:26
Operation Vivaldi has achieved what it calls a
9:29
operationally significant goal
9:31
by disrupting Moscow's efforts to conduct a wide
9:33
encirclement of Ukraine's cities and towns in Donetsk.
9:36
Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps says Russian forces have
9:39
lost around 2000 personnel during the operation,
9:43
while more than 250 Russian troops have been taken prisoner.
9:46
The corps also says Russian troops surrendered in groups including officers,
9:50
drone pilots,
9:51
and artillery personnel.
9:53
As has been the case throughout this conflict,
9:55
not every figure can be independently verified in real time,
9:59
but if accurate,
10:00
that points to more than Ukraine taking back territory.
10:03
It suggests that Ukrainian forces are also breaking apart the units and systems
10:08
Russia's been using
10:10
to hold this part of the front,
10:12
and Ukraine used some unusual tools to do it.
10:15
According to the Third Army Corps,
10:17
Ukrainian forces used modified Soviet-era BTR-60s,
10:21
the eight-wheeled armored personnel carriers,
10:24
to break through Russian defenses,
10:26
but the vehicles were not used in the traditional manner.
10:29
Ukraine says the old armored vehicles have been converted.
10:32
So they can be driven remotely as
10:34
attack vehicles to strike heavily fortified Russian positions
10:37
without Ukrainian troops inside.
10:39
Despite the reported gains,
10:41
Russian forces are still applying heavy pressure elsewhere in the region,
10:45
especially farther south,
10:47
where Moscow has been trying to push deeper into the city and surrounding areas.
10:52
It's not clear yet
10:53
just what the 4th season of Vivaldi will bring.
10:58
Alright.
10:58
Staying with the war in Ukraine,
10:59
the transfer of two North Korean soldiers
11:02
captured while fighting for Russia to South Korea
11:05
has opened a major diplomatic dispute between Kiev and Seoul.
11:09
South Korean officials say
11:10
the transfer came with a promise of secrecy,
11:14
but Ukrainian President Zelensky publicly announced their
11:16
capture and their arrival in South Korea
11:19
before the UN during a General Assembly speech,
11:22
so not particularly secret.
11:24
South Korea took their complaint directly to Ukraine's acting ambassador
11:28
Andrey Vieshkin on Monday.
11:30
Now the Foreign Ministry summoned him,
11:32
expressed
11:33
strong regret,
11:34
and demanded an official explanation and apology
11:37
over Zelensky's announcement last week.
11:40
South Korea's presidential office
11:42
had made a similar demand on Sunday.
11:44
By Monday,
11:45
Seoul wanted Ukraine's representative in the room
11:48
to hear it directly.
11:49
Kiev is telling a different story.
11:51
Ukraine's presidential office says
11:53
there was no confidentiality agreement.
11:56
Now,
11:56
whatever the exact agreement was,
11:58
you're probably wondering why Seoul wanted the transfer kept quiet.
12:02
Well,
12:02
it was rather straightforward.
12:03
South Korea says it was trying to protect both soldiers
12:06
along with their families
12:07
still inside North Korea.
12:10
What we know is that the two men were captured
12:11
in Russia's Kursk region where North Korean leader Kim Jong Un
12:14
had previously sent troops
12:16
to help his BFF Putin.
12:18
Both captured soldiers reportedly told their Ukrainian captors
12:21
that they wanted to go to South Korea,
12:23
including in media interviews
12:25
and during a meeting with a South Korean lawmaker.
12:27
Sending them back to Pyongyang,
12:29
of course,
12:29
would have raised serious concerns
12:31
about their safety.
12:33
We've discussed before on the PDB
12:35
how Kim has praised North Korean soldiers who commit suicide
12:39
rather than be captured while fighting Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
12:43
Reaching South Korea though does not mean the uncertainty is over for them.
12:47
Seoul's Unification Ministry said Monday
12:49
that their cases will be reviewed under relevant laws and past practices.
12:53
They face questioning and security screening,
12:56
of course,
12:56
before authorities decide
12:57
whether to grant them protection and begin resettlement.
13:01
That investigation and temporary protection process
13:04
generally lasts up to 90 days.
13:07
Now another question remains unanswered by both governments.
13:09
Did sending them to South Korea
13:11
formally end their status as prisoners of war?
13:14
Neither Kiev nor Seoul has explained the precise legal basis for the transfer
13:18
or whether it formally ended their POW status.
13:21
The Third Geneva Convention generally requires prisoners of war
13:25
to be released and repatriated after active hostilities end,
13:29
although
13:30
that doesn't necessarily rule out an earlier
13:32
release or transfer to another country.
13:34
And in this case,
13:35
even the question of nationality gets complicated.
13:38
International law treats North Korea as a separate state,
13:41
while South Korea
13:43
considers North Koreans its citizens.
13:45
That difference could still create legal and diplomatic friction.
13:49
And this may not be frankly the last time that
13:51
Kiev and Seoul have to work through these questions.
13:54
There are indications
13:55
that North Korea
13:56
plans to send even more troops to Ukraine
13:59
to fight for the Kremlin.
14:01
And in today's back of the brief,
14:02
the Wall Street Journal reports that Egypt's intelligence chief
14:06
personally warned Prime Minister Netanyahu
14:09
about an impending attack from Gaza
14:11
before the brutal 7 October Hamas attacks.
14:14
More on that
14:16
when we come back.
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In today's back of the brief,
16:32
nearly 3 years after the October 7th attacks,
16:36
we're learning about another warning
16:37
that may have reached Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu personally.
16:41
According to a new report from The Wall Street Journal,
16:43
Egypt's intelligence chief Abbas Kamel
16:46
called Netanyahu in early October of 2023
16:49
to warn him about signs of a possible attack coming out of Gaza.
16:53
The journal says that call came after two
16:56
previous Egyptian warnings had already gone unheeded.
16:59
Now Netanyahu strongly disputes that account.
17:02
After the journal published its report,
17:04
the prime minister said he did not meet or speak with Kamel
17:07
in the months before the attack
17:08
and said no Israeli intelligence source
17:10
passed an Egyptian warning to him.
17:13
So Arab officials say the warning was delivered directly.
17:16
Netanyahu says it was not.
17:17
According to the journal,
17:19
Egypt's first warning came months earlier in June 2023 and was fairly vague.
17:24
Egyptian officials reportedly told their Israeli counterparts.
17:28
That conditions in Gaza were becoming increasingly volatile.
17:31
Then in September,
17:32
Kamel traveled to Israel with a more serious warning,
17:35
telling officials
17:36
that the situation could blow up.
17:38
The journal says that was followed
17:40
by the personal phone call to Netanyahu
17:42
just days before Hamas launched its attacks.
17:45
There were reportedly warnings from elsewhere as well.
17:48
Officials in the United Arab Emirates,
17:50
the UAE,
17:51
had become increasingly concerned about Hamas,
17:53
noting changes in the rhetoric of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
17:57
and more frequent meetings between Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
18:02
The journal says Emirati officials shared some of those concerns with both Israel
18:06
and the US
18:07
Also,
18:08
according to previous reporting,
18:09
Israeli forces had obtained a Hamas battle plan
18:12
before the October 7th events
18:14
but reportedly dismissed it as unrealistic.
18:18
Israeli observers stationed near Gaza had warned about increased Hamas training,
18:23
and Israeli intelligence had very little human intelligence inside Gaza.
18:27
That might have provided a clearer picture of
18:29
what Hamas was actually preparing to do.
18:31
Now it should be noted
18:33
that the plans for the 7 October attacks were of course
18:36
a closely held secret within Hamas itself.
18:40
The broader problem appears to have been an assumption
18:42
on the part of Israeli leadership and security personnel.
18:45
Israeli officials had largely concluded that Hamas did not want a major war
18:50
and would not risk launching an attack on the scale of October 7th.
18:55
So even as individual warnings reportedly began piling up,
18:59
they were being filtered through an intelligence assessment
19:02
that Se Hamas simply wasn't going to do it,
19:05
and that may be the most important lesson here.
19:07
Intelligence failures don't always happen because,
19:10
well,
19:10
nobody saw anything coming.
19:12
Sometimes
19:13
the warnings are there,
19:14
but they don't fit the prevailing theory,
19:16
so they get discounted,
19:18
explained away,
19:19
or ignored.
19:21
And nearly 3 years later,
19:22
Israel is still arguing over exactly
19:24
who was warned,
19:26
what they were told,
19:27
and whether anyone
19:28
could have stopped what came next.
19:31
And that my friends,
19:32
is the president's Daily Brief for Tuesday,
19:34
the 29th of September.
19:35
Now,
19:35
if you have any questions or comments,
19:36
and I hope you do,
19:37
just reach out to me at PDB@thefirstv.com,
19:41
and I hope you'll consider becoming a
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19:56
I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today
19:58
with the PDB
19:59
afternoon bulletin.
20:00
Until then,
20:02
stay informed,
20:03
stay safe,
20:04
stay cool.