Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL week 2 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
- 0:15Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. We're heading into week two of
- 0:18Speaker 1: the NFL season. Last week, Ladies and Gentlemen was our
- 0:23Speaker 1: biggest show in podcast history. Massive, massive show. I think
- 0:27Speaker 1: it speaks to three things. One people's enthusiasm for the NFL,
- 0:31Speaker 1: returning to people's enthusiasm for Scooch, and three people's enthusiasm
- 0:38Speaker 1: for me. Scooch, don't laugh. I haven't introduced you yet.
- 0:42Speaker 1: We got such a big show coming up today. A
- 0:44Speaker 1: couple of projects I want to tell you about. Number
- 0:46Speaker 1: one Scooch. Later on in the show, Darren Ravel is
- 0:51Speaker 1: going to come back. Simon Hunter, who's the professional better
- 0:54Speaker 1: from New Jersey, is going to come back. Simon Hunter
- 0:56Speaker 1: will weigh in on the picks that Darren and I have.
- 0:59Speaker 1: Darren is this where me is the quote unquote sharp
- 1:02Speaker 1: for the Super Contest. First week at the Super Contest,
- 1:05Speaker 1: Darren and I went three and two. We needed the
- 1:08Speaker 1: Texans last night to cover. They did uh that game
- 1:12Speaker 1: When once we got once they scored, once they had
- 1:15Speaker 1: the ball left like three minutes left, I knew we
- 1:17Speaker 1: were gonna at least cover. And then that Guy game
- 1:19Speaker 1: got crazy, so it was super exciting. Um Scooch. Later
- 1:23Speaker 1: on we gotta play some scooch Roulette. I believe we
- 1:26Speaker 1: both lost. Um and I had the Vikings. Man, Oh,
- 1:33Speaker 1: what do I have the Jags? I don't know. You
- 1:37Speaker 1: had like five picks. I don't know what I think. No,
- 1:40Speaker 1: maybe I picked the Colts. I don't know. We'll have
- 1:42Speaker 1: to ask Patrick to like figure it out for us
- 1:45Speaker 1: while we're listening to the podcast. Um, but first from
- 1:51Speaker 1: the Boyd from Boyd Gaming, representing all the sports books
- 1:56Speaker 1: that boardgaming has around the country. Bookmaker of the World
- 1:59Speaker 1: by Scooci. That is music worthy of a man who
- 2:18Speaker 1: won the first week of scoot Roulette. Yeah, good to
- 2:23Speaker 1: be back. Listen, Um, just give me a taste, Give
- 2:28Speaker 1: me a taste. I want to tell you a little
- 2:29Speaker 1: bit about a project I'm working on that I think
- 2:31Speaker 1: you'll enjoy. But give me a taste of what it
- 2:35Speaker 1: was like in the books. I feel like every year
- 2:37Speaker 1: we could say this, it's getting bigger. Every year there's
- 2:40Speaker 1: more enthusiasm. But this year it feels like we can
- 2:43Speaker 1: say that with authenticity and legitimacy because of the legalization
- 2:49Speaker 1: of sports betting and really the way it's being talked
- 2:51Speaker 1: about in so many platforms right now. Oh absolutely, I
- 2:55Speaker 1: mean we so we launched two sports books in Mississippi
- 2:58Speaker 1: last year. We long one in the outside Philadelphia in March,
- 3:02Speaker 1: and then we just launched four of them in Indiana
- 3:04Speaker 1: and Iowa in the past two weeks. Uh. And when
- 3:09Speaker 1: you look at Nevada numbers, Nevada numbers are growing if
- 3:13Speaker 1: you look at year over year numbers. So the idea
- 3:16Speaker 1: that legalization, at least for the time being, is going
- 3:18Speaker 1: to take away from Nevada hasn't held true yet. I
- 3:21Speaker 1: think it's just showing that the legalization right now across
- 3:25Speaker 1: the country is just getting more exposure to new people
- 3:29Speaker 1: that may not have bet sports before. So to say
- 3:32Speaker 1: that it's bigger than ever is most accurate right now.
- 3:35Speaker 1: A wise man once said to me that legalized sports
- 3:40Speaker 1: betting would only be good for Nevada because if you
- 3:43Speaker 1: go to your local amusement park doesn't mean you don't
- 3:46Speaker 1: want to go to Disney World. I remember saying that
- 3:52Speaker 1: that was me. I still think that holds true. I mean,
- 3:55Speaker 1: somebody that's never been to a you know, on a
- 3:57Speaker 1: roller coaster, who goes to the local amusement Park. He's like, hey,
- 4:00Speaker 1: we when I tried Disneylander. By the way, you said
- 4:03Speaker 1: that to me like ten years ago. Wow, you gotta
- 4:06Speaker 1: you gotta a memory, my friend. I remember exactly where
- 4:10Speaker 1: we were when you said it to me. I was
- 4:12Speaker 1: in Vegas and I was working on a story about
- 4:16Speaker 1: the legalization of sports betting and for the sixty the
- 4:20Speaker 1: ESPN News magazine show, and um, I was interviewing you
- 4:25Speaker 1: and before we went on camera, you said this to me.
- 4:27Speaker 1: I'm like, Scooch, that's a great line. You gotta say
- 4:29Speaker 1: that on camera. Wow. I mean that was so long ago.
- 4:34Speaker 1: I still would have made nationwide sports betting a big
- 4:37Speaker 1: underdog at the time. But look at where we are now.
- 4:41Speaker 1: I mean, it's incredible. Later on today, don't forget Darren
- 4:45Speaker 1: Revel and Simon Hunter professional betters are gonna come on
- 4:47Speaker 1: and we're gonna talk about the pics we're making to
- 4:51Speaker 1: win one point five million dollars in the super contest.
- 4:53Speaker 1: But I do want to tell you something, scooge I
- 4:56Speaker 1: decided last weekend. So I think I've told you this
- 4:58Speaker 1: story that every year I've gone head ahead with my
- 5:00Speaker 1: buddy Matt Um in Pigskin pick him where we picked
- 5:04Speaker 1: every game against the spread. And I've been destroying him,
- 5:07Speaker 1: like really destroying him and for the past four years,
- 5:11Speaker 1: and like it's honestly getting expensive for me because the
- 5:13Speaker 1: loser the winner ends up having to buy the loser
- 5:16Speaker 1: trophies or do something to embarrass them, so you know,
- 5:19Speaker 1: And now it's got to the point where I gotta
- 5:21Speaker 1: taught myself every year. And so instead of getting him
- 5:23Speaker 1: a trophy this past year when I beat him. Have
- 5:26Speaker 1: you ever heard of cameo? Cameo is this UH company
- 5:31Speaker 1: where you can pay to have BC level celebrities UM
- 5:38Speaker 1: do a short video with a very specific message that
- 5:42Speaker 1: they will then send to the person you want to
- 5:44Speaker 1: give it to. So UM, I went with the guy
- 5:47Speaker 1: who played Kevin in The Office, my buddy Matt. His
- 5:50Speaker 1: kids are obsessed with The Office. Any kid these days
- 5:53Speaker 1: between the age of like ten and twenty is obsessed
- 5:56Speaker 1: with the Office because they've all watched it on Netflix
- 5:58Speaker 1: about eight thousand times. Like Mike kids have watched every
- 6:01Speaker 1: episode of The Office ten times, right, and so hit
- 6:04Speaker 1: Matt's kids have too. And so I got Kevin from
- 6:07Speaker 1: the Office to do a cameo UM excoriating Matt for
- 6:11Speaker 1: losing to me again and specifically mentioning to Matt that
- 6:14Speaker 1: his kids are so ashamed of him for losing again
- 6:19Speaker 1: and again and again. Right, But at this point, like
- 6:22Speaker 1: beating Matt is costing me like four or five dollars
- 6:25Speaker 1: a year because I've got to get all this stuff
- 6:27Speaker 1: to embarrass him at the end of the year. And
- 6:29Speaker 1: so I said him, this year, listen, let me just
- 6:32Speaker 1: pick every game, like we'll both. Let's let's each put
- 6:36Speaker 1: four dollars into a pool. Let me pick every game,
- 6:39Speaker 1: and at the end of the year, if I lose,
- 6:41Speaker 1: you can lord it over me. If I win, then
- 6:43Speaker 1: we're going to split the profit. Right, We'll share and
- 6:45Speaker 1: we'll enjoy. It will be something we can do together
- 6:47Speaker 1: instead of me beating you again. So of course Matt
- 6:49Speaker 1: decides like he wants to, he needs to be able
- 6:53Speaker 1: to make some picks as well. He can't just be
- 6:55Speaker 1: sort of a passive participant. And I said to him, like, dude,
- 6:59Speaker 1: it's not picking camp. Not everybody gets to play. And
- 7:03Speaker 1: I thought you'd laugh at that a little more pick
- 7:10Speaker 1: up camp, like it's good. Right. I used that line
- 7:14Speaker 1: in the radio last week and they loved it. But
- 7:19Speaker 1: we decided to do it. Anyways, I let him make
- 7:21Speaker 1: some picks and uh we picked this past weekend for
- 7:24Speaker 1: the first time, we went eleven and five in all
- 7:26Speaker 1: sixteen games against the spread. Holy yeah, Holy cow. So listen,
- 7:31Speaker 1: I want to tell people. You can follow along in
- 7:33Speaker 1: the Action Network app. Download the free Action Network app.
- 7:36Speaker 1: It's uh Followed two fifty six or Bust two fifty
- 7:40Speaker 1: six or bust um. That is the account, and uh,
- 7:45Speaker 1: you can track everything that we're doing for this project
- 7:47Speaker 1: to or bust. What do you think of that? Scars,
- 7:52Speaker 1: I like it. It's actually harder. It's it's harder to
- 7:55Speaker 1: pick five games that you're positive about than to just
- 7:57Speaker 1: let it fly in the sixteen because like the sixteen,
- 8:00Speaker 1: you know, like the five games, you invest so much
- 8:02Speaker 1: time and if you go three and two you're lucky.
- 8:04Speaker 1: The sixteen like you might end up fifty fifty on these.
- 8:08Speaker 1: It's just it's just better mentally, it's more fun. Yeah yeah,
- 8:14Speaker 1: I mean we we've we've been doing that for years
- 8:15Speaker 1: here in town. I haven't done it recently, but there's
- 8:18Speaker 1: always been like a battle of the bookies and one
- 8:20Speaker 1: of the local papers and everything, and uh, you have
- 8:23Speaker 1: to pick every game on the board and yeah, it
- 8:27Speaker 1: sounds easier, but it could be difficult to I mean
- 8:29Speaker 1: you have those weeks where you just go like, you know,
- 8:33Speaker 1: five or four or four or five winners and the
- 8:35Speaker 1: rest losers. So uh but no, it's it's it's fun.
- 8:39Speaker 1: It's important to get a good start just so I
- 8:41Speaker 1: haven't busted my bankroll by week right, all right, scooch,
- 8:47Speaker 1: we got some craptastic games to talk about and a
- 8:50Speaker 1: record setting number we gotta get to. Um, let's talk
- 8:54Speaker 1: about the first one on the board Thursday night, Tampa
- 8:57Speaker 1: at Carolina. This line opened at five. It's now a
- 9:02Speaker 1: six and a half. Yeah, what's going on there? First
- 9:07Speaker 1: bet out of the gate when we hung the lines,
- 9:09Speaker 1: actually and some some sharp betters, and um boy, you know,
- 9:16Speaker 1: and I hate having the public and the sharp guys
- 9:18Speaker 1: on the same side, but this is one of those.
- 9:20Speaker 1: And uh, a sizeable favorite on a on a Thursday night.
- 9:24Speaker 1: I just jacked up the money line not too long
- 9:26Speaker 1: ago on this one. Um Panthers played A played the
- 9:30Speaker 1: tough team last week in the Rams, and uh they
- 9:33Speaker 1: looked pretty good. It was I mean, it wasn't a
- 9:36Speaker 1: It looked like one of those grinding type games. It
- 9:38Speaker 1: wasn't a pretty game to watch. Two defenses battling out
- 9:42Speaker 1: Buccaneers didn't didn't show much, so I I understand the move.
- 9:48Speaker 1: We try not to take too much into account in
- 9:51Speaker 1: big line adjustments after one week. A matter of fact,
- 9:55Speaker 1: now that a lot of the players don't see any
- 9:58Speaker 1: action in preseason, it's almost like week three and four
- 10:02Speaker 1: is when you really start getting the good indication of
- 10:04Speaker 1: who these teams are. You almost have to you know,
- 10:07Speaker 1: you have to expect a lot of uncertainty the first
- 10:10Speaker 1: two or three weeks. So we're trying not to adjust
- 10:13Speaker 1: too much, and we're stuck with what the line would
- 10:16Speaker 1: have been prior to any of the last week's games.
- 10:18Speaker 1: There's only two or three teams, and we'll get to that.
- 10:20Speaker 1: We did make some sizeable adjustments off a week one,
- 10:23Speaker 1: but largely because of personnel reasons. But so so this
- 10:28Speaker 1: one we're just gonna be big Buccaneer Frans on Thursday night.
- 10:32Speaker 1: I can't get to read on this one, and unfortunately
- 10:34Speaker 1: I am obligated to bet every game. It's a tough
- 10:39Speaker 1: number too, so you know, you want to play the
- 10:41Speaker 1: Panthers in this one, but it's a lot of points
- 10:43Speaker 1: to lay missed out on on the good number. Um,
- 10:47Speaker 1: you know, it opened, like you said, five and a half,
- 10:50Speaker 1: So now you're saying they gotta win by a touchdown.
- 10:52Speaker 1: It's a tough one to to bet. I'm probably gonna wait.
- 10:55Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until the last possible minutes. If I
- 10:58Speaker 1: can get plus seven, there you go, they probably will.
- 11:01Speaker 1: I mean by Thursday night, looks like the public is
- 11:04Speaker 1: kind of in on it at about a five to
- 11:05Speaker 1: one ratio, so I don't see that changing during the week,
- 11:08Speaker 1: so I think you'll see some seven. I totally agree
- 11:11Speaker 1: the first game. I bet this week we're the New
- 11:14Speaker 1: York Giants plus two and a half against the Buffalo
- 11:17Speaker 1: Bills at home. So many theories on why this line
- 11:21Speaker 1: opened where it did, all having to do with public
- 11:24Speaker 1: sentiment and what people saw. This is this is a
- 11:27Speaker 1: public perception point spread right here, triple P on literation.
- 11:31Speaker 1: It's a p p P. Yeah. So we opened the
- 11:35Speaker 1: bills one and a half and uh we got some
- 11:38Speaker 1: uh some early bills money went up to two and
- 11:40Speaker 1: a half. But now it's kind of flip flop, and
- 11:43Speaker 1: I think a lot of people, uh mainly the sharp guys,
- 11:46Speaker 1: not a lot of people, just a few people, but
- 11:48Speaker 1: a few sharp people are starting to feel the same
- 11:51Speaker 1: way that you did. You do, and they're taking the
- 11:54Speaker 1: two and a half now, so we're actually heavier on
- 11:56Speaker 1: the Giant. So I could see this line coming right
- 11:59Speaker 1: back down to the opener and much closer to pick
- 12:02Speaker 1: them by game time. Wow. So I've definitely got the
- 12:05Speaker 1: best of the number. Yeah. And and really I mean
- 12:09Speaker 1: just from a layman's point of view watching the Bills,
- 12:11Speaker 1: if you did watch any of that Bill's Jets game,
- 12:13Speaker 1: really didn't show much for three quarters. And uh, and
- 12:16Speaker 1: then you you know again week one. You you start
- 12:19Speaker 1: to wonder some of these fourth quarter comebacks if it's conditioning,
- 12:22Speaker 1: it's the number of factors. But but yeah, I could
- 12:25Speaker 1: see the Giants being the play in this one. A
- 12:27Speaker 1: home dog getting a few points against not a very
- 12:31Speaker 1: good team. Uh, with a quarterback that likes to turn
- 12:34Speaker 1: the ball over a lot for the Buffalo Bills. I
- 12:37Speaker 1: think it's I think it's not a strong play, but
- 12:40Speaker 1: a good play. Yeah. Well this here's the challenge with
- 12:42Speaker 1: this game is like nobody was watching this game unless
- 12:46Speaker 1: you have direct TV or like you have read Zone,
- 12:48Speaker 1: And so all people saw was the Bills come back
- 12:51Speaker 1: against the Jets on the road from sixteen points down.
- 12:53Speaker 1: But everybody was watching the Giants play the Cowboys and
- 12:56Speaker 1: saw the Cowboys steamroll them in the second quarter, and
- 12:59Speaker 1: that was not Eli's fault. Like, the Giants didn't lose
- 13:01Speaker 1: this game because of Eli. And so you give me
- 13:03Speaker 1: the Giants at home when they get into the film
- 13:05Speaker 1: room and they get a little bit optimism by seeing, Wait,
- 13:09Speaker 1: there were certain things we did, but the Cowboys were
- 13:11Speaker 1: just awesome in this game. And the Bills people will
- 13:16Speaker 1: see we're very bad and they were playing against a
- 13:19Speaker 1: very bad team. This is a good number for me.
- 13:22Speaker 1: I'm really excited about it. L A Chargers, l A Chargers,
- 13:26Speaker 1: You're done. You're done. I'm moving on l A Chargers
- 13:30Speaker 1: minus two and a half on the road against the
- 13:32Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. Why do you do this? This is like
- 13:37Speaker 1: you make this so hard on people because you know
- 13:39Speaker 1: what side people should be betting around this game. Yeah,
- 13:44Speaker 1: so the sharp guys have already taken the plus three
- 13:47Speaker 1: on the Lions at home, and here's another game where
- 13:51Speaker 1: you know, if you're a professional better you'd like to
- 13:52Speaker 1: see these numbers. A home dog getting at at least
- 13:56Speaker 1: three points. The public is going to be all over
- 13:59Speaker 1: the charge in this one bet about it clip. Um.
- 14:06Speaker 1: We we've already taken some some pretty big money on
- 14:08Speaker 1: the line. So that's an indication that you'll probably see
- 14:12Speaker 1: this line come down even though the public is on
- 14:14Speaker 1: the chargers by game day. Uh. If you're looking to
- 14:18Speaker 1: get at three, you should probably get it now because
- 14:20Speaker 1: closer to game day, this line is gonna also come
- 14:22Speaker 1: back down to a pick them. How much money? Um,
- 14:28Speaker 1: five figures, five figures, five figures. You've taken five figures
- 14:32Speaker 1: in the lines. Yep, like a five figure bet. Uh.
- 14:38Speaker 1: Not one bettiest series of bets. Yeah, and we've taken
- 14:44Speaker 1: some tremendous action this past week. It's like you're going
- 14:47Speaker 1: back to what you said earlier about the popularity of
- 14:50Speaker 1: sports betting and now that we're in multiple jurisdictions. Uh,
- 14:54Speaker 1: you know you mentioned the Cowboys. We took a pretty
- 14:57Speaker 1: large bet on the Uh Cowboy is that one of
- 15:00Speaker 1: our properties to win the Super Bowl? So uh, yeah,
- 15:03Speaker 1: we're we're seeing some some action around the around the country. Now.
- 15:07Speaker 1: I am also in a pool. There's four of us. Uh.
- 15:12Speaker 1: The entry fee it's two thousand dollars and we each
- 15:22Speaker 1: pick it is Steve. But it makes me very uncomfortable.
- 15:26Speaker 1: I never never bet that kind of money on anything. Um,
- 15:32Speaker 1: But you know, it's like it's the quick I I
- 15:37Speaker 1: sort of think about it as it's the equivalent of
- 15:39Speaker 1: basically a hundred dollars a week, and it's a draft
- 15:44Speaker 1: where you pick eight teams and you to win the
- 15:48Speaker 1: Super Bowl. And so you know, first pick, second pick,
- 15:52Speaker 1: third pick, fourth pick, and then the guy who picks
- 15:54Speaker 1: fourth gets two picks and you go back around. Um.
- 15:57Speaker 1: The two teams I took first were that used in
- 16:00Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Yeah, and I also had a Cowboys U
- 16:06Speaker 1: tend to one to win the NFC title. Pretty good. God,
- 16:11Speaker 1: I had them, yeah, because we we had them at
- 16:14Speaker 1: the one to win the Super Bowl prior to Sunday
- 16:18Speaker 1: they went down a little bit, so you got you've
- 16:20Speaker 1: got a decent number. Yeah, I bet that. Like you know,
- 16:22Speaker 1: during the summer, Indie is visiting Tennessee. Another really interesting game, right,
- 16:30Speaker 1: Like Indie played well, left a lot of opportunities to
- 16:35Speaker 1: win that game. On the field. Tennessee dominated against the
- 16:38Speaker 1: Cleveland team that I think a lot of people thought
- 16:41Speaker 1: if you were betting that was overrated and the Tennessee
- 16:43Speaker 1: was the right side. So now Indie is plus three.
- 16:47Speaker 1: Full disclosure, I've bet the Colts at plus three. Yeah,
- 16:53Speaker 1: I think we got the number right here and I
- 16:55Speaker 1: don't see it moving too much. Um. We we said
- 16:58Speaker 1: last week that the Cults were very good team even
- 17:01Speaker 1: without Andrew Luck, so it didn't surprise me too much
- 17:04Speaker 1: that they, Uh, they played a pretty good game against
- 17:08Speaker 1: the Chargers. The Titans, Uh, you know, we had them
- 17:12Speaker 1: rated pretty high to nobody really anticipated them blowing Cleveland out,
- 17:16Speaker 1: but we did think that they were definitely a live
- 17:18Speaker 1: dog in that game. And we mentioned that too last
- 17:21Speaker 1: week that you know, the Browns hype really drove that
- 17:25Speaker 1: that number up, and you probably would have had some
- 17:27Speaker 1: pretty good value on the Titans at plus five and
- 17:29Speaker 1: a half. So um, in this game, I think the
- 17:32Speaker 1: numbers right on right on track. Uh, we're probably going
- 17:36Speaker 1: to be heavy on the Titans with public money. I
- 17:38Speaker 1: haven't gotten any sharp money yet on the Colts, but
- 17:42Speaker 1: I would think that, uh, the sharp guys would want
- 17:45Speaker 1: to bet the Cults in this one. As you said,
- 17:50Speaker 1: I have the Colts plus three. I know you're the
- 17:54Speaker 1: sharp guy. Dallas Cowboys minus five against the Redskins on
- 17:57Speaker 1: the road, trap trap trap like this, Like if I
- 18:01Speaker 1: didn't have to bet this game because of project to
- 18:04Speaker 1: or bust follow along in the action app Um, I'd
- 18:07Speaker 1: avoid it like the plague because the right side of
- 18:10Speaker 1: the Redskins. But I don't want to bet on this
- 18:11Speaker 1: Redskins team. Sharp a lot of sharp play on this
- 18:16Speaker 1: one already. So we opened five and a half. First
- 18:21Speaker 1: couple of bets were on the Redskins were down to five.
- 18:23Speaker 1: We're not trying not to move it too far down
- 18:26Speaker 1: because the public is betting. The Cowboys had about a
- 18:29Speaker 1: ten to one ratio. Like you said, everybody watched that.
- 18:33Speaker 1: It was a high profile game on Sunday with the
- 18:35Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Giants. Everybody was watching that one. Uh.
- 18:39Speaker 1: Cowboys already have a strong following to begin with, being
- 18:41Speaker 1: such a high profile team. Redskins actually uh played pretty well.
- 18:47Speaker 1: Uh they got the cover there. We it was nip
- 18:50Speaker 1: and tuck. It looked like they had the game in
- 18:52Speaker 1: hand and was going to be one of the biggest
- 18:53Speaker 1: upsets of the day against the against the Eagles. But
- 18:56Speaker 1: you know again, even even when the team uh plays
- 19:00Speaker 1: better than we expect, we we don't want to adjust
- 19:02Speaker 1: them too much, So not a whole lot of adjustment here.
- 19:05Speaker 1: This is probably would have been the number we would
- 19:07Speaker 1: have made, you know, two weeks ago. So but I
- 19:10Speaker 1: do think the sharp guys see the value at with
- 19:13Speaker 1: the home dog in this one. It's a big rivalry game.
- 19:15Speaker 1: So uh yeah, I think the right plays the Redskins.
- 19:19Speaker 1: But you know, it's tough to watch them. Uh as
- 19:22Speaker 1: Cowboys did look pretty good. Yeah, that's gonna be hard,
- 19:25Speaker 1: really really hard. I just feel like the Cowboys are
- 19:28Speaker 1: so freaking good, like they've known it, they saw it.
- 19:31Speaker 1: That second quarter was magical. Um, they're I think they're
- 19:36Speaker 1: a juggernaut. Yeah, I think they are. And you know,
- 19:40Speaker 1: everybody looks to the Eagles in that division, and the
- 19:42Speaker 1: Eagles are going to be there. But yeah, that's a
- 19:45Speaker 1: they're good team. And uh yeah, like I said, we've
- 19:49Speaker 1: taken some pretty big bets already on them to win
- 19:51Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I should mention I forgot to mention.
- 19:53Speaker 1: I bet the Panthers Bucks under forty nine and a
- 19:57Speaker 1: half on Thursday. Name okay, um, alright, another game that
- 20:02Speaker 1: I bet. As I've noted in the past in the
- 20:06Speaker 1: Action Network gap, but once you've bet a game, it
- 20:08Speaker 1: jumps to the top of sort of the schedules. So
- 20:10Speaker 1: I've got to go by what I bet, um, because
- 20:13Speaker 1: I've already bet some games Arizona, who I was so
- 20:17Speaker 1: in love with against the Lions and kind of got
- 20:20Speaker 1: bailed out um against the Ravens who dominated the Dolphins.
- 20:26Speaker 1: But this to me just feels like the line is
- 20:28Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. I bet the Cardinals at plus
- 20:31Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. Their defense isn't bad, um, and
- 20:35Speaker 1: they held up against the Lions in the end. I'm
- 20:37Speaker 1: a huge Kyler Murray fan. I think this could be
- 20:40Speaker 1: a super exciting game. But I don't think we know
- 20:42Speaker 1: anything about the Ravens at this point because they played
- 20:44Speaker 1: such a dreadful team that is already in disarray, with
- 20:47Speaker 1: players reporting like that they want out, like they want
- 20:50Speaker 1: to get out of Miami as soon as possible. So
- 20:54Speaker 1: I think you've overinflated this line and I think you're
- 20:56Speaker 1: gonna get burned, and I think you're gonna struggle because
- 20:58Speaker 1: you might have to even go higher because that's where
- 21:00Speaker 1: all the money is going to come in. Yeah, so
- 21:03Speaker 1: we definitely did over just over adjust, but I don't
- 21:06Speaker 1: think that We're gonna get burned because I we know
- 21:08Speaker 1: the public is going to be on the Ravens at
- 21:10Speaker 1: about an eight to one clip nine to one ratio
- 21:12Speaker 1: something like like that. Um. Yeah, when I talked about
- 21:16Speaker 1: some of the teams that we had to make adjustments on,
- 21:19Speaker 1: obviously uh that the Dolphins were one of them. But
- 21:24Speaker 1: so we couldn't take too much from that big blow
- 21:26Speaker 1: out there that this team, uh, they just had no morale.
- 21:29Speaker 1: It's tough when you're front office on lows all of
- 21:33Speaker 1: all of your best players prior to the first week
- 21:35Speaker 1: of the game and then uh, and then try to
- 21:38Speaker 1: tell the team that you know, every game is important
- 21:41Speaker 1: and you know, uh, we're still trying to uh trying
- 21:45Speaker 1: to win a championship. You know, that message is kind
- 21:48Speaker 1: of muddled. So I couldn't take too much from that game.
- 21:51Speaker 1: Like you said, the Cardinals with Kyler Murray, you know,
- 21:54Speaker 1: it's such an untangible the guy's got so much talent.
- 21:56Speaker 1: But then you know, you got you got, you know,
- 21:59Speaker 1: a young quarterback who can make mistakes, and you know
- 22:01Speaker 1: you saw him actually struggle for the first half and
- 22:04Speaker 1: part into the third quarter and then but then you
- 22:07Speaker 1: saw signs of that of that talent, that greatness, and
- 22:09Speaker 1: then obviously the comeback so so so. But but yeah,
- 22:13Speaker 1: when you're when you're talking about double digit favorites in
- 22:16Speaker 1: the NFL, they have to be some really really good teams,
- 22:21Speaker 1: and you know, the Ravens are not haven't proven themselves
- 22:24Speaker 1: to be that really good team yet. So the line
- 22:28Speaker 1: is overinflated, but we're okay with that. You won't be
- 22:32Speaker 1: on Sunday. Well, if we take enough sharp money on
- 22:37Speaker 1: the Cardinals, you know we'll offset some of that public money.
- 22:41Speaker 1: Minnesota at Green Bay Packers minus three, two teams that
- 22:46Speaker 1: we both loved in Week one. Uh, it's good line.
- 22:53Speaker 1: It's perfect. I mean you got to it's perfect. It's perfect.
- 22:57Speaker 1: It's a beautiful it's like a beautiful baby line. Yeah,
- 23:01Speaker 1: it's a minus three Packers at Home Packers Vikings. We're
- 23:05Speaker 1: gonna get the fifty fifty action on this game. I mean,
- 23:09Speaker 1: that's a bookmaker's dream. I don't even know what to
- 23:13Speaker 1: do with this game. I don't think I have an
- 23:15Speaker 1: opinion yet. That's why it's a perfect line, all right.
- 23:22Speaker 1: It really is a coint But it's one of those
- 23:23Speaker 1: great matchups that you know you're gonna get divided opinions
- 23:26Speaker 1: on this. It's the sharp guys aren't really going to
- 23:29Speaker 1: have a clear angle on this one. You know, if
- 23:31Speaker 1: they were able to get three and a half, it
- 23:33Speaker 1: might be a small play on the vikings. If they
- 23:35Speaker 1: were laying two and a half, then you say, okay,
- 23:37Speaker 1: Packers by field goals. But uh, it's it's a tough one,
- 23:41Speaker 1: which is good. Let's move on if nobody's got anything yet.
- 23:45Speaker 1: It's funny how you know, I love this is like
- 23:48Speaker 1: the epitome of sports betting. When you have the most
- 23:51Speaker 1: marquee game on the board, the best game, but because
- 23:54Speaker 1: the line neutralizes everything, there's nothing to talk about. God,
- 23:59Speaker 1: that is a great abra ation. You're so right, Like,
- 24:02Speaker 1: these are two teams that could both go to the
- 24:04Speaker 1: super Bowl in a wide open and NC conference, and
- 24:08Speaker 1: like Minnesota looked great on Sunday, Green Bay looked awful,
- 24:11Speaker 1: but they'd be a team that everyone had high expectations
- 24:14Speaker 1: for they are playing. It's like it's two public teams
- 24:18Speaker 1: with huge fan bases at one of the most beloved
- 24:23Speaker 1: stadiums in football, with the best quarterback potentially in football
- 24:28Speaker 1: um and a defense that is just unbelievable in the
- 24:31Speaker 1: Vikings and Dalvin Cook is one of the most exciting players.
- 24:35Speaker 1: And because we can't get a reading the line, I
- 24:37Speaker 1: want to move on to the next game. Exactly. So funny, Uh,
- 24:41Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a four point favorite against the Seahawks at home.
- 24:48Speaker 1: I would take the Steelers in this game. Totally totally
- 24:52Speaker 1: agree with you on this one. Um. You know, the
- 24:56Speaker 1: Steelers are are are one of those teams that a
- 24:58Speaker 1: lot of people have to if you had to take
- 25:00Speaker 1: a couple of teams in the a f ceed that
- 25:02Speaker 1: could actually kind of compete with the Chiefs and the Patriots. Uh,
- 25:07Speaker 1: the Steelers are the team that kind of comes up
- 25:09Speaker 1: all the time, and you know at home, Uh, coming
- 25:14Speaker 1: off with the big loss against the Patriots, you know
- 25:16Speaker 1: that they're going to be jack to win one at home. Uh. Seahawks,
- 25:21Speaker 1: you know, even with the talent, looks like they struggled
- 25:25Speaker 1: quite a bit. As almost a digit favorite. So, UM,
- 25:29Speaker 1: I think even though you're laying a little bit more
- 25:32Speaker 1: than a field goal, I think I think the Steelers
- 25:34Speaker 1: is to play here. Which way you think this line
- 25:36Speaker 1: is going to go? Um, I think it'll come down. Actually,
- 25:42Speaker 1: So if you're if you're looking back to steals. I
- 25:44Speaker 1: think you could probably get a three and a half
- 25:46Speaker 1: or three. Um that the ticket accounts pretty divided evenly,
- 25:50Speaker 1: so the public isn't gonna sway. That's it's just a
- 25:52Speaker 1: matter of some of the sharp guys. If they come
- 25:55Speaker 1: in and taking the plus four, the plus three and
- 25:58Speaker 1: a half, but so I had to take, they'll cut down.
- 26:00Speaker 1: So you gotta keep an eye out. I'm gonna set
- 26:02Speaker 1: an alert. I can set an alert for this line
- 26:05Speaker 1: in the Action Network happ and that is what I'm
- 26:07Speaker 1: gonna do. I want to keep an eye on when
- 26:08Speaker 1: it is moving. Yeah, isn't that cool. It's a cool feature, right,
- 26:12Speaker 1: I don't like that, it really is. Maybe you should
- 26:14Speaker 1: download the app. I will uh Jacksonville at Houston. You've
- 26:23Speaker 1: got the Jabs as a big, big dog. Um. I
- 26:30Speaker 1: don't know, man, you might be underrating Gardner Minshew. Did
- 26:33Speaker 1: you see him play completed his first passes. I'm a
- 26:37Speaker 1: big Minshew fan. I was. We were rooting pretty heavily
- 26:41Speaker 1: for the Jags against the Chiefs. That was one of
- 26:43Speaker 1: the biggest games on the board that the sports books lost.
- 26:45Speaker 1: So as soon as uh Foles went out, we became
- 26:48Speaker 1: huge Minshew fans. I was desperately, I I, UM, I
- 26:54Speaker 1: do this radio show every week with this guy named
- 26:57Speaker 1: Nick Right. Nick Right hosts First Things for Works on
- 27:00Speaker 1: FS one, the morning show on FS one, and he's
- 27:03Speaker 1: also got a radio show on Mad Dog Radio at
- 27:06Speaker 1: night on Sirius. It's a great show. He's I say this,
- 27:10Speaker 1: I say almost nothing, um, in all honesty, without irony.
- 27:16Speaker 1: He is fabulously talented, and he's a nemesis and I
- 27:19Speaker 1: kind of can't stand him and I root from fail
- 27:21Speaker 1: every day. But uh, but he is ridiculously talented. And
- 27:26Speaker 1: so I went on his show, and he's a huge
- 27:27Speaker 1: Chiefs fan, and he um, he knew that I was
- 27:31Speaker 1: gonna love the Jacks. And an hour before I came on,
- 27:34Speaker 1: he was talking about how much he loved the Chiefs
- 27:36Speaker 1: and he's like, in one hour, Chad Moment is going
- 27:38Speaker 1: to come on and tell me all the reasons why
- 27:40Speaker 1: you should like the Jacks in this game. And literally
- 27:43Speaker 1: he said verbatim what I then said an hour later,
- 27:46Speaker 1: and he said to his producer, cut this clip. Play
- 27:48Speaker 1: it when Chad comes on after he gives us the
- 27:51Speaker 1: rundown of the Chiefs Jacks. And it was uncanny, how
- 27:54Speaker 1: accurate he was, so then we ended up you know,
- 27:56Speaker 1: doing a little scooch roule let her own, and uh,
- 27:59Speaker 1: that was the guy we decided to go head to
- 28:01Speaker 1: head on and he was texting me all Sunday just
- 28:03Speaker 1: ripping me for the Jacks. Wow. Well, I mean, you know, fairness,
- 28:09Speaker 1: I mean, he couldn't predict falls going down and I
- 28:12Speaker 1: mean as good as Minshew looked, it's still I mean
- 28:15Speaker 1: a huge, huge drop down. So uh in this game,
- 28:20Speaker 1: I think we got the line right. Um sharp guys
- 28:24Speaker 1: hadn't weighed in on either side plus the eight and
- 28:26Speaker 1: a half or minus the eight and a half. So
- 28:28Speaker 1: I think we're okay in terms of the line. I
- 28:31Speaker 1: think the problem with the Jags that you look at
- 28:33Speaker 1: their secondary and I mean, my Homes just just tore
- 28:36Speaker 1: them apart. Guys, just wide open missed assignments. Now I
- 28:41Speaker 1: kind of look at the Texans offense and what they
- 28:43Speaker 1: were able to do against the Saints. I could I
- 28:45Speaker 1: could see uh Watson doing the same thing to the
- 28:49Speaker 1: Jags that Mahomes did so little, you know, That's why
- 28:52Speaker 1: the line is so high. But I think the line
- 28:54Speaker 1: is right, all right, that's fair. Uh, Cincinnati so one
- 29:00Speaker 1: point favorite at home against the Niners. Listen, interesting games
- 29:05Speaker 1: from these two teams this past week. I just set
- 29:09Speaker 1: this line, what are the wise guys playing well? Actually,
- 29:12Speaker 1: I think we dropped the ball on this one. Uh
- 29:15Speaker 1: just a ton of Bengal money already we opened the
- 29:19Speaker 1: line uh minus two and one of the most heavily
- 29:23Speaker 1: bet games on the board, and we already swung to
- 29:26Speaker 1: the Bengals uh minus one. So this might have been
- 29:31Speaker 1: a game where actually we should have made an adjustment
- 29:34Speaker 1: after week one, and we didn't. You look at that game,
- 29:38Speaker 1: you know, the Bengals and the Seahawks, and he's trying
- 29:40Speaker 1: not to take too much out of that game, but
- 29:42Speaker 1: how much of it was the Bengals playing really well
- 29:45Speaker 1: or how much was the Seahawks playing poorly? So the
- 29:49Speaker 1: sharp guy definitely gave us an indication of whatever forty
- 29:53Speaker 1: Niners win against the Buccaneers, maybe not as impressive and uh,
- 29:58Speaker 1: just a lot of money on the Bengals. I think
- 30:00Speaker 1: they're right on this one. I take accounts identical, so
- 30:03Speaker 1: I think we're going to see fifty fifty from the public.
- 30:05Speaker 1: But but yeah, the Bengals. If you're just looking at
- 30:08Speaker 1: point spreads, and we talked about about this last week.
- 30:11Speaker 1: Sometimes you don't even look at the teams, but you
- 30:13Speaker 1: look at the point spreads. UH. This is a case
- 30:15Speaker 1: where all the Bengals have to do is win the
- 30:17Speaker 1: game at home or even now, after the line moved,
- 30:20Speaker 1: their only minus one, so it looks like a play
- 30:24Speaker 1: full disclosure. I bet the Bengals minus one after the move. Okay,
- 30:29Speaker 1: I didn't get I didn't get the best of the number.
- 30:31Speaker 1: I didn't get the best of the number. But I
- 30:33Speaker 1: had to play it. All right, We've got history to
- 30:37Speaker 1: talk about right now. To New England Patriots on the road.
- 30:41Speaker 1: They opened as sixteen and a half point favorite sixteen.
- 30:44Speaker 1: It's now up to eighteen and a half, could get
- 30:47Speaker 1: to nineteen, which will make it the biggest road favorite
- 30:49Speaker 1: UH in history, according to our bet Labs database. That
- 30:54Speaker 1: Labs is one of the tools that we use at
- 30:55Speaker 1: Action Network. You can go sign up for it um
- 30:58Speaker 1: one of our subscription products. It's any zing Man Scooch. Listen,
- 31:04Speaker 1: it's an automatic take. You close your eyes, you hold
- 31:06Speaker 1: your nose, you take the dolphins and you move on.
- 31:10Speaker 1: You do I mean, when we're making this line, we
- 31:13Speaker 1: realize all the extenuating circumstances surrounding the turmoil of the Dolphins.
- 31:18Speaker 1: And but how high do you make it? Do you
- 31:20Speaker 1: just automatically say it's gonna let's make the highest road
- 31:24Speaker 1: favorite of all time. Uh, you know, we know how
- 31:26Speaker 1: great the Patriots are, we know how bad the Dolphins are.
- 31:29Speaker 1: It's hard to handicap morale. You know, how do you
- 31:32Speaker 1: handicap morale if you're not there, you know, in the
- 31:36Speaker 1: locker room all the time. It's such an intangible you know,
- 31:39Speaker 1: the talent on the team, you know what they're capable of.
- 31:43Speaker 1: But you know, it's like a fighter thrown in the towel,
- 31:47Speaker 1: you know. So hopefully they keep this competitive. And the
- 31:51Speaker 1: one thing about the Patriots is they don't ever let
- 31:55Speaker 1: their foot off the gas pedal. It doesn't matter who
- 31:57Speaker 1: they're playing or what the score is. And it's one
- 31:59Speaker 1: of the reasons why the public just love to bet them.
- 32:04Speaker 1: I thought I got about the Dolphins. Yeah, it's an
- 32:07Speaker 1: automatic take. Just don't watch it. It will make you sick.
- 32:11Speaker 1: Not not only don't watch it, like it's an automatic loss,
- 32:14Speaker 1: I just feel crappy doing it. You don't make a
- 32:17Speaker 1: living betting against the Patriots. I know. A wise man
- 32:20Speaker 1: said that to me once Chiefs are eight point favorites
- 32:26Speaker 1: on the road against Oakland. Another one, like, yeah, both
- 32:30Speaker 1: of these teams that the Chiefs and the Patriots are
- 32:33Speaker 1: sort of annihilating every principle we've ever considered about road
- 32:38Speaker 1: favorites there. They're too explosive. Yeah, they really are. Just
- 32:44Speaker 1: what an incredible offense and so many weapons. Uh, you know,
- 32:49Speaker 1: it's they're fun team to watch. Uh. I'd really love
- 32:52Speaker 1: them to to to see them going up a really
- 32:55Speaker 1: good defense and just see seeing one of those you know,
- 32:58Speaker 1: top offenses again the pop defense. Uh in this one,
- 33:02Speaker 1: you know, again another case where we didn't make too
- 33:05Speaker 1: many adjustments. And this is the same line you would
- 33:08Speaker 1: have seen prior to the Raiders game Monday night where
- 33:13Speaker 1: they actually looked pretty good. But we know, we know
- 33:17Speaker 1: what the public is going to be doing in this one.
- 33:19Speaker 1: We know they're gonna be all over the Chiefs, So
- 33:22Speaker 1: let's make it as high as we can. And I
- 33:24Speaker 1: think we have the right number because we haven't seen
- 33:27Speaker 1: any sharp action one way or the other on this one.
- 33:29Speaker 1: Kind of kind of similar to to that Texans game
- 33:32Speaker 1: we just talked about. Um, we're sitting there at eight,
- 33:36Speaker 1: haven't moved it yet and uh, and the sharp guys
- 33:39Speaker 1: haven't weighed in. The public is obviously uh uh on
- 33:45Speaker 1: the favorite, but not not as big as some of
- 33:48Speaker 1: the other games on the board. Give it time, I
- 33:52Speaker 1: will Chicago Bears. I actually think this is the right line.
- 33:57Speaker 1: Chicago Bears two points favorite, two point favorites on the
- 33:59Speaker 1: road and its Denver Like neither of these teams showed.
- 34:03Speaker 1: The Bears are probably better than much. The ceiling on
- 34:07Speaker 1: the Bears is probably much much higher from the floor
- 34:10Speaker 1: that we saw on Thursday than the ceiling that the
- 34:12Speaker 1: Broncos is from what we saw on Monday night. Yeah,
- 34:16Speaker 1: well said, and I see this line just going up.
- 34:19Speaker 1: So um, if you're looking to bet the Bears, now
- 34:22Speaker 1: is probably the time. I actually raised it a little
- 34:25Speaker 1: bit this morning, and I can by the post closer
- 34:29Speaker 1: to three. Um. You know, if you look at who
- 34:33Speaker 1: which team, like you said, has more of an upside
- 34:35Speaker 1: the Bears, Uh, look at that same team that they
- 34:38Speaker 1: had last year, essentially, And I think the Broncos were
- 34:43Speaker 1: a little overrated. We talked about them early on getting
- 34:46Speaker 1: a lot of action, um during the summer with the
- 34:49Speaker 1: Broncos to win the Super Bowl and thinking that you know,
- 34:53Speaker 1: getting getting Flacco was kind of the missing piece and
- 34:55Speaker 1: they only had a quarterback to get over that hump.
- 34:59Speaker 1: But I I think that hype was a little too much.
- 35:02Speaker 1: And uh, you know, with the Bears playing a little
- 35:05Speaker 1: poorly in Week one, I look for them to kind
- 35:07Speaker 1: of rebound in this one. Next game is the Rams
- 35:12Speaker 1: is three point favorites over the Saints. We got three
- 35:14Speaker 1: more games to go, Sunday afternoon games, Sunday night game,
- 35:17Speaker 1: and Monday night game. Rams is three point favorites over
- 35:20Speaker 1: the Saints. Um, I like the Rams in this game? Wow?
- 35:26Speaker 1: I mean what do you say about this? Obviously you
- 35:29Speaker 1: think the Saints have a little little revenge and no wait, no, no, no, no, no,
- 35:33Speaker 1: I like the Saints in this game. Oh you like
- 35:36Speaker 1: to say? Ok, I got distracted. You know, Darren Ravella
- 35:41Speaker 1: is coming on after you. We're gonna do our super
- 35:42Speaker 1: Contest picks and he just texted me to let me
- 35:44Speaker 1: know that he's outside the door, and so I lost
- 35:47Speaker 1: my concentration. Okay, yeah, So I I mean, yeah, what
- 35:52Speaker 1: do you say about this one? Uh? It's another one
- 35:55Speaker 1: like the Vikings Packers, where two great teams going head
- 35:58Speaker 1: to head. Uh talked about trying to handicap emotion or
- 36:01Speaker 1: handicap morale. Uh. This would be a perfect, you know,
- 36:05Speaker 1: case study on how players perform and under circumstances around
- 36:12Speaker 1: last year and how their Saints season ended. So right now,
- 36:16Speaker 1: the public is kind of tossed on this one, slightly
- 36:19Speaker 1: favoring the Saints but not overwhelming. Uh. Sharp guys haven't
- 36:23Speaker 1: weighed in on this one. I don't think the sharp
- 36:25Speaker 1: guys would want to lay the three on the Rams
- 36:29Speaker 1: against a you know, a great team like the Saints. Uh.
- 36:32Speaker 1: If anything, I think they take it. But I like
- 36:34Speaker 1: the number and I think it's pretty solid. This is
- 36:36Speaker 1: different to me than the Vikings and the Packers. It's
- 36:39Speaker 1: nuanced idea. But this is the national afternoon game with
- 36:44Speaker 1: teams in a rematch from the NFC title game who
- 36:47Speaker 1: just won big games. Like um, I feel like people
- 36:51Speaker 1: are gonna want to figure out aside. Whereas Minnesota Green
- 36:53Speaker 1: Bay they'll happily skip and not try to figure it out,
- 36:56Speaker 1: whereas here people are gonna want an opinion. No, that's
- 36:59Speaker 1: a great point. And in the afternoon games, when you
- 37:01Speaker 1: only have three games to choose from, people aren't want
- 37:05Speaker 1: to want to just skip over it. So just because
- 37:08Speaker 1: they can't figure out the line, so they'll definitely want
- 37:11Speaker 1: action in this one. Philly is now at one point
- 37:13Speaker 1: fair against Atlanta. I think this game open pick, and
- 37:16Speaker 1: the money came in on Philly, probably from the public.
- 37:19Speaker 1: I think the wise guys sit this one out until
- 37:20Speaker 1: they get to a better number from the on the Falcons.
- 37:24Speaker 1: I moved this one to two early this morning from
- 37:26Speaker 1: one we did open pick. We got some early money
- 37:28Speaker 1: on the Eagles. I went right to two. But because
- 37:31Speaker 1: this is the Sunday night game and all those parlays
- 37:34Speaker 1: rolling into it and the amount of exposure we're going
- 37:37Speaker 1: to have going to the Eagles, Uh, we would rather
- 37:40Speaker 1: be on the high side. So I'm going to keep
- 37:41Speaker 1: inching this just a few bets and see at what
- 37:45Speaker 1: point the sharp I start taking the Falcons. They haven't
- 37:48Speaker 1: taken the two, which means I'm going to want the
- 37:50Speaker 1: two in the hand here. Really think they take two
- 37:52Speaker 1: and a half, But I definitely think you'll see some
- 37:56Speaker 1: threes that won't at some point, and I'm wait until
- 37:58Speaker 1: it gets it three and I'll take it. Anna, I've
- 38:02Speaker 1: never heard you take Atlanta in any circumstances. Why would
- 38:06Speaker 1: I say this? That's stupid. Hate you hate the Falcons.
- 38:10Speaker 1: Hate the Falcons. That was dumb. I can't think if
- 38:14Speaker 1: I said that, let me re evaluate that. I don't
- 38:16Speaker 1: want to be I don't want to be stuck to
- 38:18Speaker 1: a decision yet. Alright, last game Monday night before scooch Roulette,
- 38:21Speaker 1: and then Darren Revel's coming in and me and him
- 38:23Speaker 1: and Simon Hunter are doing our uh super contest picks
- 38:27Speaker 1: Cleveland two and a half point favorite on the road
- 38:29Speaker 1: at the Jets. I like this, I like this. I
- 38:32Speaker 1: would take the I would take the Browns in this game. Really, Yeah,
- 38:37Speaker 1: that's that's rare to take a road favorite like this. Um,
- 38:40Speaker 1: but the public agrees with you on this one, sharp,
- 38:43Speaker 1: guys haven't weighed in yet. Uh, this is probably one
- 38:48Speaker 1: where you know the public isn't just they're not going
- 38:51Speaker 1: to give up on the Browns. Just talking of that
- 38:52Speaker 1: we we one performance, they're gonna be all over the
- 38:55Speaker 1: Browns in this one. Might be another case where you
- 38:57Speaker 1: see it three by game time. So if you're gonna
- 39:00Speaker 1: bet the Browns, you probably want them now at two
- 39:01Speaker 1: and a half. All right, it's time for everybody's favorite
- 39:07Speaker 1: part of the show. Music. Please, I'd like to wait
- 39:20Speaker 1: till the last note is wrong. I saw that. That's great,
- 39:26Speaker 1: give me your pick, Screws. Do you get to go first?
- 39:28Speaker 1: Because I think you won last week? Okay? Well, I
- 39:32Speaker 1: hate to be on the same side as uh as
- 39:34Speaker 1: the wise guys, but I think Cincinnati's the right plate
- 39:38Speaker 1: minus one at home, and you mentioned you already played it,
- 39:40Speaker 1: so that just reinforced it for me. All right, you
- 39:43Speaker 1: know what, I'm gonna go with him? What But here's
- 39:46Speaker 1: what I want from you. We know this line is
- 39:49Speaker 1: going to move in the direction I need. So I
- 39:52Speaker 1: want you to give me half a point, right now,
- 39:55Speaker 1: give you half a point is uh, let's a good deal. Yeah.
- 40:01Speaker 1: I want you to give me Pittsburgh minus three and
- 40:03Speaker 1: a half over Seattle. Okay, I'll do that. It's going
- 40:08Speaker 1: that way. It is going that way. Yeah, so that's
- 40:12Speaker 1: not a strategy. Give me Pittsburgh minus three. Come on now,
- 40:18Speaker 1: no way, I find Pittsburgh minus three. Pittsburgh minus three,
- 40:22Speaker 1: I'll lay the three and a half, all right, I
- 40:24Speaker 1: got Pittsburgh. Patrick, We make a note, Patrick, the producer,
- 40:27Speaker 1: make a note. I have Pittsburgh three at minus three
- 40:30Speaker 1: and a half. Scooch has Cincinnati minus one that we
- 40:33Speaker 1: can keep track for next week. So now I don't
- 40:35Speaker 1: have to listen. Now, now I don't have to listen
- 40:41Speaker 1: to this fantastic podcast. I don't have to listen back
- 40:43Speaker 1: to it so to find out what my picks were.
- 40:48Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, you're the best as always. Let's break another
- 40:51Speaker 1: record this week. All right, sounds good? Chat. All right,
- 40:56Speaker 1: we're gonna get back to the podcast in one second.
- 40:58Speaker 1: But first week one is in the books, folks. But
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- 42:40Speaker 1: back to the show. We are back, and it's that time.
- 42:44Speaker 1: Darren revel is joining me right now, John Q Public,
- 42:48Speaker 1: John Q Public is joining me right now. Last week
- 42:51Speaker 1: we had five picks for the super Contest the Las
- 42:53Speaker 1: Vegas Westgate Super Book Super Contest season long pick up
- 42:58Speaker 1: contest for the NFL. You pick five games over course
- 43:00Speaker 1: of the year. The winner of the more than three
- 43:02Speaker 1: thousand people who have entered gets one point five million dollars.
- 43:05Speaker 1: Darren and I started three and two at the end
- 43:08Speaker 1: of this segment. Professional Better Simon Hunter. He was based
- 43:11Speaker 1: in the New Jersey area. Legit Professional Better not his name,
- 43:15Speaker 1: but actually just a fan of the podcast, fan of
- 43:17Speaker 1: what we do, also a fan of proving us wrong,
- 43:20Speaker 1: and reached out to me in many weeks ago and said, listen,
- 43:24Speaker 1: I think you guys are fun, but I don't think
- 43:26Speaker 1: you know anything, and so I'm gonna come on and
- 43:27Speaker 1: help you guys figure it out. And last week he
- 43:29Speaker 1: certainly did. Um, we're gonna have him come on and
- 43:32Speaker 1: judge in a little bit. First up, Darren, you're you're
- 43:36Speaker 1: pretty good. You've made some nice choices. Last week, I did.
- 43:38Speaker 1: I did, I was. I was four and one in
- 43:40Speaker 1: the Action Network pick him. I was four and one
- 43:43Speaker 1: in my money bets that I made. I felt pretty
- 43:46Speaker 1: good and I felt really good. That are big conversation
- 43:49Speaker 1: was about the Chiefs and the Jaguars, and the Chiefs
- 43:53Speaker 1: did it and the Jaguars actually might be that bad.
- 43:57Speaker 1: They might they might be that bad. Need to move
- 44:00Speaker 1: back a little bit. I don't know if you've ever
- 44:02Speaker 1: done any kind of television, radio or podcasting or anything,
- 44:06Speaker 1: but how's that you're a little bit too there you go?
- 44:09Speaker 1: How's that? Patrick? The producers? I've done this once or
- 44:12Speaker 1: twice before. But is that okay? You look good? Okay?
- 44:15Speaker 1: Now I can talk to chat talk to me, talk
- 44:17Speaker 1: to me, you listen. Also should be noted you're playing
- 44:20Speaker 1: a little bit hurt. You did the one chip challenge
- 44:22Speaker 1: of like the super Red Dragon Pepper Chip Carolina Reapers
- 44:26Speaker 1: top Skollville units. I thank you for giving me an
- 44:30Speaker 1: extra ten minutes. I am. I'm much better than I
- 44:33Speaker 1: was ten minutes. And so just also so we know,
- 44:35Speaker 1: two guys from Action Network who did it with you
- 44:37Speaker 1: have already gone home. One has gone home, and one
- 44:40Speaker 1: is down for the count. Definitely not productive today for sure. Okay,
- 44:44Speaker 1: that's good, it's good. Well, thank god, it's just Tuesday. Um, Darren,
- 44:49Speaker 1: let's not dilly dally. Let's talk about your picks right now.
- 44:53Speaker 1: You know, I know the one that you're gonna absolutely
- 44:56Speaker 1: go nuts over, And I just feel so good I
- 44:59Speaker 1: know it's basically the biggest point spread, and no, no,
- 45:06Speaker 1: we're not doing this. But the Patriots are just that
- 45:09Speaker 1: good and the Dolphins are just that bad that I'd
- 45:13Speaker 1: recommend that eighteen and a half we enter the Super
- 45:17Speaker 1: Contest with the Patriots to cover against the Dolphins next.
- 45:25Speaker 1: That's how you dismissed me with the Jaguars Chiefs when
- 45:27Speaker 1: I said the Chiefs, all the sharps are on the
- 45:30Speaker 1: Jaguars Brown's Jets. I think, as I thought last week,
- 45:35Speaker 1: the Browns are totally overrated. They are uh, they are
- 45:41Speaker 1: not the sum of their parts, they are each individual parts,
- 45:45Speaker 1: especially with Odell Beckham and his hundred nine dollar watch.
- 45:50Speaker 1: I was not that upset with the Jets. Yeah, they
- 45:55Speaker 1: poached it normal Jets style, But I like the Jets
- 46:00Speaker 1: at home. They're two and a half point dogs, right, yeah,
- 46:04Speaker 1: take them alright, So I like the Browns in this game.
- 46:07Speaker 1: But I could be convinced. I could totally be convinced.
- 46:10Speaker 1: I do think there are five better picks on the
- 46:13Speaker 1: board than the Jets than the Jets minus two and
- 46:15Speaker 1: a half. There might be ten better picks on the
- 46:18Speaker 1: board than the Patriots minus eighteen and a half. Listen,
- 46:21Speaker 1: the NFL is so tough. I truly believe it is.
- 46:24Speaker 1: While we all want to bet it, it is clearly
- 46:27Speaker 1: not the best sport to bet. It is so difficult,
- 46:30Speaker 1: and I just like the challenge. I think, which has
- 46:32Speaker 1: made me stupid of doing Brown's Jets, because I think
- 46:35Speaker 1: now you'll have the value of saying, well the brown
- 46:38Speaker 1: You still get value out of the Browns being not
- 46:41Speaker 1: as good as we thought, because it's week two, if
- 46:43Speaker 1: that is true, So I I like them. I like
- 46:47Speaker 1: the Jets two and a half point dogs, Eagles, Falcons. Jesus,
- 46:52Speaker 1: you're picking like every game. That makes me sick to
- 46:55Speaker 1: my stomach. Uh. Eagles got off to a very slow start.
- 46:59Speaker 1: Um the Falcons, I am. You know, we have information,
- 47:03Speaker 1: but I'm not really leaning anywhere. I think. I think
- 47:07Speaker 1: the Eagles will know what they're doing. They barely won. Uh.
- 47:12Speaker 1: You know there were ten point favorites last week. Do
- 47:14Speaker 1: we take that game? No? Uh? I think the Eagles
- 47:19Speaker 1: is one point favorites on the road. I like the Eagles. Well,
- 47:22Speaker 1: the Eagles are two and a half point favorites now
- 47:25Speaker 1: are Well that's where so the super Contest line is
- 47:27Speaker 1: gonna wherever it is Okay, I'm fine with two as
- 47:30Speaker 1: long as it's not three and a half. All right,
- 47:32Speaker 1: let me explain something to you. Do you know that
- 47:35Speaker 1: you are basically making all the public pics but like
- 47:39Speaker 1: violating every cardinal rule of betting, which is don't take
- 47:44Speaker 1: road favorites. That's all you're doing is taking road favorites
- 47:47Speaker 1: right now. I don't I don't realize I'm taking road favorites.
- 47:50Speaker 1: I know I'm not. The Jets are at home. You fine,
- 47:55Speaker 1: but I'm just taking who I think. You've just decided
- 47:58Speaker 1: their road favorites. And that's my strategy. It's not my strategy.
- 48:01Speaker 1: It's not my strategy. I'm just picking who I think. Anyway,
- 48:04Speaker 1: let's go again. Go ahead, who's next? You got two
- 48:08Speaker 1: more picks? Okay, now I'm gonna take and now I'm
- 48:11Speaker 1: gonna take a road dog. The Arizona Cardinals as almost
- 48:17Speaker 1: a two point two touchdown dog in Baltimore. So Baltimore
- 48:22Speaker 1: went completely crazy. The Dolphins stink this pick. Yeah, this
- 48:27Speaker 1: is a definite for us of it. So that was
- 48:29Speaker 1: my So that was my number two pick. I'm doing
- 48:31Speaker 1: in order five, three, two, one. That's gone. The ones
- 48:34Speaker 1: that you're learning a little good. It's like you're you're
- 48:36Speaker 1: the students, so he's learning from thirteen and a half. Okay, fine,
- 48:41Speaker 1: and my number one pick, you're not gonna I know
- 48:44Speaker 1: you're not gonna like it. Away favorite Dallas, who cares
- 48:53Speaker 1: about FedEx Field doesn't disgust me. I think the Giants
- 48:57Speaker 1: stink um, but I was impressed with the Cowboys play
- 49:03Speaker 1: week one. Uh five. I like that number as long
- 49:06Speaker 1: as it doesn't get to seven. We have to discuss
- 49:09Speaker 1: what happens if something changes, obviously, but we have to
- 49:11Speaker 1: put in our picks now. But as long as it
- 49:13Speaker 1: doesn't get to seven, I'm good. I like Dallas. So again,
- 49:16Speaker 1: reviewing my picks, I like Dallas. That's a five their
- 49:20Speaker 1: five point favorite uh at Washington. I like the Arizona
- 49:25Speaker 1: Cardinals as thirteen and a half point dogs in Baltimore.
- 49:29Speaker 1: I like the Eagles as what to two and a
- 49:32Speaker 1: half in Atlanta favorites. I like the Jets as two
- 49:36Speaker 1: and a half point dogs at home. And I like
- 49:39Speaker 1: the New England Patriots to cover eighteen and a half
- 49:43Speaker 1: in Miami. Alright, so those are really good picks. Um,
- 49:47Speaker 1: I'm gonna give Patrick Simon's number. We're gonna call him up.
- 49:50Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you my picks right now. UM with
- 49:55Speaker 1: you on the Cardinals. Let's definitely the Cardinals plus thirteen
- 49:58Speaker 1: and a half. I like the Giants plus two and
- 50:03Speaker 1: a half against the Buffalo Bills, and I like him
- 50:05Speaker 1: better than any pick. You have a couple of reasons.
- 50:08Speaker 1: Number one, I always like a home team that is
- 50:12Speaker 1: a short dog. Um. Number two, I feel like everyone
- 50:18Speaker 1: is betting on the Bills and the reason they're their favorite.
- 50:20Speaker 1: I quoted this is in the first part of the
- 50:24Speaker 1: podcast with Bob Scucci. A public perception point spread. It's
- 50:28Speaker 1: a triple p public perception point spread. Uh. The Giants
- 50:33Speaker 1: underdogs because they got blown up by the Cowboys in
- 50:36Speaker 1: one quarter who looked amazing and like world beaters. The
- 50:39Speaker 1: Bills are favorites because everyone ultimately they won, but they
- 50:42Speaker 1: still did not play great, and only that people only
- 50:45Speaker 1: saw the final score and heard the highlights. Oh my god,
- 50:47Speaker 1: the Bills came back. Nobody was watching that game at
- 50:50Speaker 1: that game, right, But you're right, but I'm saying it
- 50:53Speaker 1: was not that convincing they won. I agree with you.
- 50:56Speaker 1: So I like the Giants plus two and half. Let's
- 50:58Speaker 1: put that in. I like that. All right, So now
- 50:59Speaker 1: we got to the Bengals as one point favorites. I
- 51:05Speaker 1: didn't watch the game against the Seahawks. They played really well.
- 51:08Speaker 1: The Niners were lucky to beat the Bucks. Um. But
- 51:11Speaker 1: I'm just doing it because that's what the wise guys
- 51:13Speaker 1: are doing right now. I'm not I'm not convinced on that. Well,
- 51:16Speaker 1: you know what, Simon Hunter is going to come on
- 51:18Speaker 1: and he's gonna make a decision for us. I like
- 51:21Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers has four point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. Again,
- 51:27Speaker 1: I think that the Seahawks are a little overvalued, um.
- 51:31Speaker 1: And I think that the Steelers are way undervalued for
- 51:34Speaker 1: getting blown out by the Patriots on on Sunday night. Okay,
- 51:38Speaker 1: so that was that Steelers minus four UM and then
- 51:45Speaker 1: the last game that I want to bet. Sorry about
- 51:50Speaker 1: that people, You just you know, I got rubbed at
- 51:53Speaker 1: the microphone a little too close to my to my
- 51:56Speaker 1: sweatshirt here, Um, why don't you just just the Patriots
- 52:04Speaker 1: with me? Come on, it's fun way, But I will
- 52:08Speaker 1: do the cults plus three? What to feel about the Colts.
- 52:12Speaker 1: I don't think I got any week one information from them, really,
- 52:15Speaker 1: what I What I got is that it's not a disaster.
- 52:17Speaker 1: What I got is that, like, there's probably just too much. Again,
- 52:21Speaker 1: it's week two. It's over reaction. You know. Week two
- 52:24Speaker 1: is over reaction week. So like the Titans blew up
- 52:26Speaker 1: the Browns, everybody thought was going to the super Bowl.
- 52:29Speaker 1: So now bookmakers are thinking, Okay, everyone thinks the Titans
- 52:31Speaker 1: are so great, and now they're going to overvalue them
- 52:34Speaker 1: against the Colts, who actually left a lot of points
- 52:36Speaker 1: on the field against the Chargers and probably could have
- 52:39Speaker 1: won that game instead of losing it, and over to
- 52:40Speaker 1: That's what we have to do this week to win.
- 52:42Speaker 1: We have to play the over values from week one.
- 52:45Speaker 1: All right, So we're gonna bring Simon in. Simon Hunter,
- 52:49Speaker 1: are you on the phone? Yes, Oh man, you helped
- 52:53Speaker 1: us to a big win last week, because you know,
- 52:55Speaker 1: we went three and two and you got us on
- 52:58Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and I think that was the deal break
- 53:00Speaker 1: her there, that's the one that put us over the top.
- 53:02Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that was That was definitely a no sweat
- 53:05Speaker 1: kind of game. I knew about five minutes and I
- 53:07Speaker 1: was gonna be one. Do you look at that game
- 53:09Speaker 1: and think, oh my god, the Cowboys are world beaters,
- 53:11Speaker 1: and that's an indication of what they're going to be
- 53:14Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. Or was that not
- 53:16Speaker 1: at all? That's definitely a spot where just notoriously, Cowboys
- 53:22Speaker 1: at home against a divisional rival, they're gonna I knew
- 53:25Speaker 1: that matchup wise, they're gonna be more more ready for
- 53:27Speaker 1: that game, and the Giants were gonna be I think
- 53:30Speaker 1: I told you ays that line was off, but I
- 53:32Speaker 1: don't know they're gonna kill them that that well, No,
- 53:34Speaker 1: I was shocked by that. But that what you were
- 53:37Speaker 1: bringing up is like a great point because we can
- 53:40Speaker 1: talk about that Redskins Cowboys game because Darren loves it
- 53:44Speaker 1: and wants to make it part of our picks for
- 53:48Speaker 1: the Super Contest. How did you do in the Super
- 53:49Speaker 1: Contest this past week? By the way, I did good
- 53:52Speaker 1: in Gold. We do a little we do weird with Gold,
- 53:55Speaker 1: we do chalk, so we I think we lost on
- 53:57Speaker 1: the Browns and we had the Cowboys rams um Houston
- 54:03Speaker 1: with the plus seven and then we did the Vikings.
- 54:06Speaker 1: What does that mean? You do chuck? So like you're
- 54:08Speaker 1: only taking sides that we might have sa the sharps
- 54:12Speaker 1: because it's mainly sharps in that competition, so we do
- 54:15Speaker 1: we do a little differently before. Yeah, that's totally interesting.
- 54:18Speaker 1: And then how did you do in the in the
- 54:21Speaker 1: you know, the pedestrian contest that Darren Iron unfortunately went
- 54:27Speaker 1: three and two. I mean I was all about taking
- 54:30Speaker 1: the Raiders when I got talked out of it and
- 54:32Speaker 1: they went Denver. So we lost on the Denver one.
- 54:34Speaker 1: And you were all about the Jaguars. Yeah, yeah, I
- 54:38Speaker 1: was waiting for that one. Uh, when I get a
- 54:41Speaker 1: system that can predict that to be getting hurt on
- 54:43Speaker 1: his first touchdown, definitely, that's true. That's true. Yeah, that
- 54:47Speaker 1: was that was a bad one. But I mean it's
- 54:49Speaker 1: after that in the defense, I've think got in a
- 54:51Speaker 1: fight the next series out with the Chiefs. I was
- 54:54Speaker 1: just like, well, that's that's a bad one. Well, look
- 54:56Speaker 1: like you and I were texting on Sunday and like,
- 55:00Speaker 1: you know, not just it wasn't Nick Foles. It was
- 55:03Speaker 1: like you look good, he looked Gardner Minshu looked great,
- 55:07Speaker 1: Nick Foles looked fun. But it was like the defense preferring,
- 55:09Speaker 1: I texted, the defense preferring to fight the Chiefs instead
- 55:12Speaker 1: of tackle the Chiefs. I think is what really did
- 55:14Speaker 1: us in. I mean, how do you do that home
- 55:16Speaker 1: in week one in front of your home crown? It
- 55:18Speaker 1: was pathetically embarrassing. I don't get much to say about
- 55:22Speaker 1: go ahead, I do. I do understand why he was
- 55:26Speaker 1: just like that. That was a terrible call. I mean,
- 55:28Speaker 1: at the Sami Watkins start sounds just like, oh boy,
- 55:30Speaker 1: here we go. Yeah, I know, right, all right, so
- 55:32Speaker 1: you make a great point about the Cowboys. They're now
- 55:34Speaker 1: five point favorites on the road at Washington. This should
- 55:37Speaker 1: be a classic wise Guy play, like you've got sprinted
- 55:42Speaker 1: to the window on Sunday night. As soon as I
- 55:45Speaker 1: saw that number, I think I got Washington at six
- 55:47Speaker 1: and a half. You guys drive me nuts. You guys
- 55:52Speaker 1: drive I know, I know. It's so, that's that's one
- 55:55Speaker 1: of those I knew you're gonna say that. We didn't
- 55:57Speaker 1: have to put that line there because that's too sharp.
- 55:59Speaker 1: That's that's definitely one of those huge pros. It's massive
- 56:04Speaker 1: pros versus joes. But also like at the number we
- 56:06Speaker 1: would get in the super contest, it's already lost the value,
- 56:09Speaker 1: Like it said, a dead number right now, there's no
- 56:12Speaker 1: seven to keep counting, all right, I said, if it
- 56:15Speaker 1: got to seven. I don't want a part of it.
- 56:17Speaker 1: But but but Joe Willie Ravel won last week in
- 56:21Speaker 1: the pros versus Joe's so that is very true. Good.
- 56:24Speaker 1: That was a great, great week for Joe public. Over
- 56:27Speaker 1: the long haul, I'd rather be on the sharp side
- 56:29Speaker 1: than the Joe side. We're partners, We're not divergent here.
- 56:34Speaker 1: We have the same goal of taking home the one
- 56:37Speaker 1: point five Millie. All right, so we um, Darren and
- 56:41Speaker 1: I both agree on the Cardinals plus thirteen and a half?
- 56:46Speaker 1: Really yeah, um, I like the mentality, but I don't.
- 56:51Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of rookies on the road
- 56:53Speaker 1: in their first start, especially against Harriball is a great,
- 56:55Speaker 1: great coach. I mean Baltimore. I told you I think
- 56:58Speaker 1: in week three of the precis and I love Baltimore.
- 57:01Speaker 1: Week one, I couldn't get enough of that line. So
- 57:04Speaker 1: I don't like that spout there. Actually, all right, I'm
- 57:06Speaker 1: taking it off the list. Really he gets does he
- 57:09Speaker 1: get the right to undo what we agree to? Is
- 57:12Speaker 1: he the third cog here is that contractually he's better
- 57:16Speaker 1: at this than we are. So that's off now because
- 57:19Speaker 1: he doesn't like that's off. I just want to make
- 57:21Speaker 1: sure is week two. I want to know the terms
- 57:23Speaker 1: and conditions of what's going on here. Again, I'm not
- 57:26Speaker 1: trying to stay you wrong, but remember last week and
- 57:27Speaker 1: you like the Eagles and you like Seattle Seahawks. Yes,
- 57:32Speaker 1: I'm not trying to steal you wrong here, my man.
- 57:33Speaker 1: I like when Simon comes after you instead of me.
- 57:36Speaker 1: I can take it. If anyone could take it, it's me.
- 57:38Speaker 1: You know what Darren loved? He loved the Patriots minus
- 57:41Speaker 1: eighteen and a half and as a as a pro.
- 57:46Speaker 1: Obviously we're gonna be on Miami, but they the Patriots
- 57:49Speaker 1: break every rule there there are no rules with sports betting.
- 57:53Speaker 1: What's so, will you let us take it? I honestly
- 57:56Speaker 1: would let's do it. This is going to close the
- 58:00Speaker 1: twenty one a half, so that's that's by Thursday, it'll
- 58:03Speaker 1: be There's no way I will take this. There's no
- 58:06Speaker 1: I won't take above. I'm out, So I guess we're
- 58:11Speaker 1: probably out. But what about this one? It's such an
- 58:13Speaker 1: insane number? What about this? That Patriots defense? Unbelievable, it's scary.
- 58:18Speaker 1: The whole thing is, it's unfair. It's Unfair's gonna get it?
- 58:21Speaker 1: Can't work out from This is just it's unfair, it
- 58:23Speaker 1: really is. What about Giants plus two and a half?
- 58:26Speaker 1: Like you did with the Falcon like with the Redskins.
- 58:29Speaker 1: As soon as I saw this, I was all over it.
- 58:32Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean the kind of game where the Bills,
- 58:34Speaker 1: if they were playing a semi competent team, they would
- 58:37Speaker 1: have got destroyed. But the Giants are so bad? Um
- 58:44Speaker 1: I do? I do like the line where I think
- 58:45Speaker 1: it's it's up to what plus two and a half? Now? Um,
- 58:51Speaker 1: that's another one. Though there's better, there's other better home
- 58:53Speaker 1: teams that we could be honest, that that one. Wow,
- 58:56Speaker 1: you are like coming after all of our picks. We're
- 58:59Speaker 1: not going to submit one pick. You just have one. Sorry,
- 59:03Speaker 1: we just have one pick. All right, let's go, We're
- 59:05Speaker 1: working through it. What about my what? What? What about my? Uh?
- 59:09Speaker 1: Jets is two and a half point dog at home?
- 59:12Speaker 1: The Browns are still I'm overreacting maybe on the Browns,
- 59:17Speaker 1: but I think they are not the sum of their parts.
- 59:20Speaker 1: They are Odell Beckham and his watch and and and
- 59:24Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield and whatever dangerous I I I like the
- 59:29Speaker 1: Jets is two and a half point dogs at home.
- 59:32Speaker 1: I mean, I love the bills last week because I
- 59:34Speaker 1: think we have the band your your home or picks
- 59:36Speaker 1: of the Jets every week. Um, I do like that
- 59:38Speaker 1: spot that I am a Jets fan, but I know
- 59:41Speaker 1: so it's like I'm an Eagle San. But I mean
- 59:44Speaker 1: I bet against Egos last week and I've been against
- 59:46Speaker 1: him this week. Why do you like the Jets in
- 59:47Speaker 1: this spot? Uh? The Jets are in a good spider
- 59:52Speaker 1: when since they just got embarrassed, and I mean I
- 59:55Speaker 1: know the Cleveland's coming embarrassed, but no, no one believes
- 59:58Speaker 1: in the Jets. That was horrible, horrible splay. But I
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: mean you knew it was happening, you knew it was
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: You let him finish. He's the professional. Um, I just
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: I do I do like to pick with the Jets.
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: I mean a home team. I think they're catching yeah
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: plus two and a half and they're probably getting less
- 1:00:19Speaker 1: than that. I mean, we two. It's it's a great overaction.
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: As a sharp, you just you get so much values
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: in these lines. This week our app says it's uh
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: that you're getting of the money. Wow, I think that
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: that's going to go up to three in May. All right,
- 1:00:36Speaker 1: you know what, I'll tell you what let's let's let's
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: think about the Jets at plus two and a half,
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: and let's what do you think of them? What do
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: you think of the Bengals minus one? Um. I love
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: this spot in the sense that like same with the
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: last week in the Bengals, is that it was a
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: knew all offense and I know that that's why a
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: lot of people didn't want to take the Bengals. But
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: the Bengals always start out really good. I mean, it's
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: the middle of the season where they always just fall
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: apart and disappear. But san fran I don't think every
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: week they can count on two picks six is to
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: get them into a game. I mean, everything you said
- 1:01:16Speaker 1: about Jimmy's last week being through, you look very bad.
- 1:01:19Speaker 1: So this is a good spot for the Bengals. I
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: feel like you're not being convincing enough in telling us
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: what we should do. I mean, I have other like
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: you guys are picking games at where I do. I
- 1:01:31Speaker 1: do like the Bengals, but like with home teams, like
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: I like Pittsburgh a lot. That's like great, it's on
- 1:01:37Speaker 1: my list. Pittsburgh is on my list. I mean Seattle.
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: I think everyone saw last week there their new offense
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: style is going to be to run it and rustle,
- 1:01:46Speaker 1: not to pass that lunch. And you can't be doing
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: that against Pittsburgh at home where they're notorious for big
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: Ben throw for four or five on your doing. Okay,
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: So I I'll just say I'm gonna third that. So
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: we're in on the Steelers right now. I see us
- 1:02:01Speaker 1: doing right now, I have this the Jets plus two
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: and a half, Bengals minus one, Steelers minus four. Okay,
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: And then if if you guys talked about all about
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: the Colts, dude, the Cults are the next one on
- 1:02:14Speaker 1: my list. Cults plus three. I've already bet the Cults
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: plus three. I mean, they should have won that game
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: by seven. So that's what I think. People got really
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: lucky with their Jesus and their bath. That's what I think.
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: I think the Colts like left so many points on
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: the field. They got like the Chargers got so lucky
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: to win this game. And it's one of these things
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: where like this is this is another one a public
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: perception point spread right, Like everyone saw Tennessee destroy the Browns,
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: big high profile game, and all anyone knows is that
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: the Chiefs that the Cults lost to the Chargers and overtime.
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: They don't really know how they didn't watch the game.
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: I need to, I need to, I need to lodge
- 1:02:49Speaker 1: a special request here. I need another Joe Public with
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: me because you guys are talking your sharp language all
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: over the place here and it really it's it's annoying,
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: like this is how we lose the super contest, you
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: guys patting each other on the back and saying how
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: great your theories are. I need another Joe Public with
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: me next week so that we did that week ago.
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: By the way, we're giving you the Jets. Yes, okay,
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: you have the Jets all right, Simon in your is
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: not that terrible thing? No, I know, I know, I
- 1:03:21Speaker 1: know we're gonna be in the money, buddy, I know.
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: Let's talk about this, Simon. You did this so well
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: last week. You had us on a public favorite on
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Like when you're looking at your numbers, what's
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: the fifth game we should put in there? That is
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: a sort of public side that will appease my friend
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: Darren Um. I don't know if it's the public side
- 1:03:43Speaker 1: because I think people are could probably be taken the Saints,
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: but I do like l a the Rams tell me why, Um,
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: I mean it's saying it's six and a half, So
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: I think it's it's more about um, Like I obviously
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: put an updated all the numbers of stuff. I'm not
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: overreacting too much the weak one, but l A Rams,
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: They're they're line, their d line is incredible and golf
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: played absolutely terrible last week and they were still they
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: were up by ten points. I think at Carolina and
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: that New Orleans team is I think New Orleans showed
- 1:04:18Speaker 1: who they were too. So I'm I'm I mean Bill
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: O'Brien wasn't a bad coach. Houston would have won that game.
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: Was that defense on that last play where they needed
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: exactly like seven yards and they were playing preven? Yeah, seriously,
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: I honestly was. I had the money line on Houston.
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: I was just like, am I really watching the prevent defense?
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: And all they needed a field goal? Yeah? That was
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: pretty stunning, and like everyone just sort of standing on
- 1:04:45Speaker 1: the sideline like yep, this is what we're gonna do. Yeah,
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: this is this is clearly the best defensive strategy. I
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: actually thought Drew Brees was gonna mess it up because
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: he thought of how he like they confused him with
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: how good of a look they gave him? Like it
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: was just too easy? Anyway, I I really want our
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: fifth pick to be um New England minus eighteen and
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: a half so many points, No way. If it's how
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: but if it stays under twenty, we go with it.
- 1:05:13Speaker 1: If it goes above twenty. But this is just stupid,
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: Like why do you want to play against the percentages?
- 1:05:18Speaker 1: Like do you want to win? One point? You like
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: money more than anybody else. I know I do like money, Like,
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: so why do you want to pick a team where
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: the percentage is so heavily against you? Like I think
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: the dolt who what team? What players are requesting trades
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: after week one? I mean all the percentages. I think
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: that Dolphins are completely dysfunctional. I don't even think they
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: want to play. I think they're just we want to
- 1:05:49Speaker 1: be They'll be on the field because they get a paycheck,
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick want to ram it
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: down their throats. They want to put up sixty if
- 1:05:57Speaker 1: they can. I think this is free money. Signon Simon
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: be the time. Wish I can talk him off the ledge,
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: but I'm within I love the Patriots to one of
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: those games that as a pro like, I had to
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: take Miami's money lines. But they're there. They looked like
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: they quit. If I watched that entire Baltimore game. I'm
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: not the points back guy that bought all that money,
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: but I had a lot on in the Baltimore game
- 1:06:22Speaker 1: and I was just laughing. But they were not trying.
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: They do not want to play for that team. Are
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: you guys kidding me that you're both gonna say, let's
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: take the Patriots over the Rams. I think it's a
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: more comfortable game for me and that and that's ut um.
- 1:06:40Speaker 1: I would go Patriots, all right, as long as it
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: does at twenties my number. Okay, if nineteen and a
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: half is the last number we take that once it
- 1:06:52Speaker 1: hits twenty, I'll give you the Rams. So what do
- 1:06:55Speaker 1: you guys do for Becca? I mean, I know you're
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: not gonna want to do Denver against you Bears. No
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: do we have five now? Well we have five right now.
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: But if we don't do that, if the if the
- 1:07:03Speaker 1: Patriots never moved, because the Westgate numbers don't come out
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: till Wednesday night, we're recording, and I do think it's
- 1:07:07Speaker 1: gonna I won't do do you like Denver against the Bears?
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: Is that your next best? Like system play there? I
- 1:07:17Speaker 1: mean every year I do this, It's it's unbelievable how
- 1:07:22Speaker 1: under value Denver does in the first two weeks. I
- 1:07:24Speaker 1: think they're nineteen one straight up at home. M so,
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: I mean, just playing the percentages, it's it's one of
- 1:07:32Speaker 1: those games where I think Denver is probably gonna close
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: at three plus three plus three and a half and
- 1:07:39Speaker 1: I don't see if there's winning buy more on the
- 1:07:40Speaker 1: field goal. But that's one of those games where everyone
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: just watched them on Monday night look terrible. Yeah, I agree,
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: I totally agree. All right, so we're gonna we'll go
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: with the Patriots and then our backup will be the Broncos. Okay,
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: well do you like the Broncos? You guys like Green
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: Bay at home? I don't love Green Green Bay to
- 1:08:00Speaker 1: me is uh, I don't know what to think of them.
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: They're like, I look at it. Ye, yeah, I don't
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: like this. I don't like this game though, because oh look,
- 1:08:10Speaker 1: I should. What I should really say is that it's
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: like it's the same philosophy for why I am betting
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: other games, like the Steelers got blown out. The Seahawks
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: are coming in hyped, The Vikings are coming in hyped.
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: The Packers didn't play very well national television games. I
- 1:08:26Speaker 1: should be on the Packers. I think like the Packers
- 1:08:30Speaker 1: better than the Broncos. I think I just talked myself
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: into it. Oh no, no, no, no, let me tell
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: you why I'm not Packers. For me, it's like Mike
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: McCarthy should be on the sidelines. He's not. I don't
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: know if what I'm just saying, no, no, hold on,
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: hold on, I'm saying that it's all false. It's like
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. Is he the Aaron Rodgers of old? Maybe not?
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: I have an identity crisis problem with the Packers. I'm
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: not saying Mike McCarthy deserves just play a top three
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: defense at home any night. Also, can we not be
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: making decisions based on Darren's psychological issues with Mike McCarthy,
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: whether or not he's still in the field, or if
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is you know, the greatest quarterback who's ever
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: played or not? Like, can we can we take the
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: advice of the guy who does this for a living?
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: Do you know who I am? Just just once, can
- 1:09:22Speaker 1: we take that We're going with the Patriots. If we
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: don't get the Patriots, let's go with the Packers or
- 1:09:27Speaker 1: the Broncos. What's the Packers spread three three? They're at home.
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: You know what, I'm making an executive decision. We're going
- 1:09:38Speaker 1: with the Packers. If we don't go with this pot,
- 1:09:41Speaker 1: we're going with the Packers. Get this guy a resume, Simon,
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: anything else you want to say? Do you feel like
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: we ended up in the right place? Let me recap
- 1:09:52Speaker 1: Jets um plus uh two and a half Bengals minus
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: Bengals minus one, Steelers minus four Colts plus three Patriots
- 1:10:04Speaker 1: as long as it stays below three touchdowns uh and
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: if not, then the Packers minus three. I liked before
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: I go today is sure side awareness today. So definitely
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: reach out to friends if you never known needs a
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: phone call. I like that. Today's Tuesday. I like that message.
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: And my point is trying not to let it get
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: to that point you know someone. Definite always reach out
- 1:10:28Speaker 1: for help. Keep an eyeing your friends, see something. I
- 1:10:34Speaker 1: like that, Simon, Simon Hunter, you'll join us every week
- 1:10:37Speaker 1: and you will give us good advice. And you promised,
- 1:10:39Speaker 1: you promised last week. You're gonna get us in the money,
- 1:10:41Speaker 1: and you got us at three and two last week,
- 1:10:43Speaker 1: and it's a good start for us. It is a
- 1:10:45Speaker 1: very good start. Hard hard dealing picks on Tuesday. But
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: we're gonna make it work. We're gonna get there. Hey,
- 1:10:51Speaker 1: if we do this right, you're not going to talk
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: to us towards the end of the season because we're
- 1:10:54Speaker 1: gonna be competing from the one point five. He's in
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: the goal. He by the way, this guy is so good.
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: He isn't. The one point five is chump changed for
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: this guy. He isn't. We need it. We need a
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: Sean Connery introduction for this guy. No now on the
- 1:11:08Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast, Simon, I agree, let's get one done. Patrick
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: the producer, we're telling him we need an introt for Simon. Simon,
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: thank you brother, all right, thanks, all right. This has
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: been the Favorites Podcast from the Action Network. I want
- 1:11:23Speaker 1: to thank Bob Scuccy, bookmaker to the world from Boyd
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: Gaming for coming on the podcast. As always, Darren Revel,
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: my nemesis, my public nemesis, Simon Hunter, the professional better
- 1:11:35Speaker 1: who's going to keep us straight, thank you for coming
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: on the podcast. Download the download the favorites. Download the
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: podcast from Apple Podcast, rate review, subscribe, un subscribe, re subscribe,
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: Go to radio dot com search for the favorites. Are
- 1:11:49Speaker 1: partners at radio dot com. We got our brand new show,
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: Me and Scooch Sunday Mornings twelve to one. Countdown to
- 1:11:56Speaker 1: kick off from the Action Network on radio dot com.
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: You're gonna You're at the beginning this Sunday. Thank you,
- 1:12:04Speaker 1: Love you, M