Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/10/26: Trump Threatens 'Fury' On Iran, Israel Panics, Iran Rejects Ceasefire
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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- 0:27Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
- 0:29Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I have an
- 0:35Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, pristalt yee,
- 0:37Speaker 1: we do.
- 0:37Speaker 2: Trump gave a very head scratching press conference yesterday.
- 0:40Speaker 3: We'll break that down for you. Also, Israel is.
- 0:43Speaker 2: Leaking that maybe they've had enough, maybe they'd like a
- 0:45Speaker 2: ceasfire at least for now. Aurano is signaling they want
- 0:49Speaker 2: to keep going at least until the midterm. So we'll
- 0:52Speaker 2: talk about everybody's strategy and where everybody is in this
- 0:54Speaker 2: war at this point. Brandan Wikert is also going to
- 0:57Speaker 2: join us to break down the interceptor math and the
- 0:59Speaker 2: damage that has been done to US raidars and the
- 1:01Speaker 2: significance of that.
- 1:02Speaker 3: As the war grinds.
- 1:03Speaker 2: On, Trump is urging oil tanker pilots to risk their
- 1:08Speaker 2: lives to traverse the straight of horror moves as oil
- 1:11Speaker 2: concerns continue to escalate and sort of dominate this conflict.
- 1:15Speaker 2: We also have one non around block here, although I
- 1:18Speaker 2: would argue they continue to be linked some new Epstein revelations,
- 1:22Speaker 2: including new details about a potential cover up. Apparently guards
- 1:25Speaker 2: were discussing a cover up. There were some interesting Google searches,
- 1:28Speaker 2: some interesting money transfers to one of these prison guards.
- 1:31Speaker 2: And also those secret interviews of a Trump accuser that
- 1:37Speaker 2: were hidden have now been made public and one journalist
- 1:41Speaker 2: was able to verify some of the details, corroborate some
- 1:44Speaker 2: of the personal details that were offered in one of
- 1:46Speaker 2: those interviews. These are obviously shocking revelations, so we will
- 1:49Speaker 2: break that down for you as well.
- 1:51Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. Thank you to everybody who's been subscribing
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- 2:22Speaker 1: week already in the history of breaking points. Were really
- 2:25Speaker 1: really pleased to have so many people join and trust
- 2:27Speaker 1: us at such a critical time like this. As Krystal said,
- 2:29Speaker 1: let's go ahead and start here with the Trump press conference.
- 2:33Speaker 1: So Trump made a major announcement just to set the
- 2:35Speaker 1: stage for everybody. Yesterday, oil prices had gone sky high,
- 2:39Speaker 1: they had come down a bit, the markets were down.
- 2:42Speaker 1: Right around three pm, right before the markets closed, Trump calls,
- 2:46Speaker 1: or it was called by a CBS News reporter, and
- 2:49Speaker 1: he said that the war will be over very soon. Immediately,
- 2:52Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred shot up, oil prices
- 2:56Speaker 1: rocketed down. Everybody was so excited. The taco is coming.
- 2:59Speaker 1: And then he took to the stage and yeah, that's
- 3:03Speaker 1: not really what we got at all. Let's take a listen.
- 3:05Speaker 4: They were separate, and but everybody said the same thing.
- 3:09Speaker 1: Make sure you win.
- 3:09Speaker 5: We will.
- 3:11Speaker 4: We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough.
- 3:16Speaker 1: Yeah, please, thank you, thank you. Mister president.
- 3:19Speaker 2: You've said the war is quote very complete, but your
- 3:22Speaker 2: defense secretary says, this is just the beginning.
- 3:24Speaker 3: So which is it and how long should Americans be?
- 3:27Speaker 5: Well?
- 3:27Speaker 4: I think both the beginning. It's the beginning of building
- 3:30Speaker 4: a new country. But they certainly they have no navy,
- 3:33Speaker 4: they have no air force, they have no anti aircraft equipment.
- 3:39Speaker 4: It's all been blown up. They have no radar, they
- 3:42Speaker 4: have no telecommunications, and they have no leadership. It's all gone.
- 3:47Speaker 4: So you know, you could look at that statement. Could
- 3:51Speaker 4: we could call it a tremendous success right now as
- 3:54Speaker 4: we leave here, I could call it, or we could
- 3:56Speaker 4: go further. And we're going to go further. But you know,
- 4:01Speaker 4: they've said this about a lot of things. Go as
- 4:02Speaker 4: the president could do some of this shit I'm doing.
- 4:06Speaker 1: Yes, true, yeah, certainly, true, definitely not a compliment. Let's
- 4:10Speaker 1: go ahead and put a two B please Eric up
- 4:12Speaker 1: on the screen just to show people again, how you
- 4:15Speaker 1: know any idea of some sort of taco Trump always
- 4:19Speaker 1: chickens out, as originally coined by Senator Chuck Schumer, now
- 4:22Speaker 1: become a Wall Street journal and or trader term has
- 4:25Speaker 1: completely been dispelled so late last night, Trump issues this missive.
- 4:29Speaker 1: If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil
- 4:32Speaker 1: within the strait of Horror Moves, they will be hit
- 4:34Speaker 1: by the United States of America twenty times harder than
- 4:37Speaker 1: they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take
- 4:40Speaker 1: out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible
- 4:43Speaker 1: for Iran to ever be built back as a nation again. Death,
- 4:47Speaker 1: fire and fury will rain upon them. But I hope
- 4:51Speaker 1: and pray it does not happen. This is a gift
- 4:53Speaker 1: from the United States of America to China and all
- 4:55Speaker 1: those nations that heavily use the horror Moves straight. Hopefully,
- 4:58Speaker 1: it is a gesture we great appreciated. Thank you for
- 5:01Speaker 1: your attention to this matter. So fire and fury watchers,
- 5:03Speaker 1: it's back fire and fury, of course, originally coined in
- 5:06Speaker 1: twenty seventeen in that exchange between Trump and what did
- 5:10Speaker 1: he call Kim Jong un rocketman?
- 5:12Speaker 3: The rocket rocket man?
- 5:13Speaker 1: Oh wow, nine years since all that happened, feels like yesterday.
- 5:17Speaker 1: But just to give people context, this is all indicative
- 5:20Speaker 1: of a panicking administration over these rising energy prices. So
- 5:24Speaker 1: while oil as of this morning it's trading around ninety
- 5:27Speaker 1: dollars a barrel, it was all the way up to
- 5:28Speaker 1: like one hundred and twenty yesterday. Extremely volatile. Everybody, of course,
- 5:32Speaker 1: hanging on every word of the president. But regardless, it's
- 5:35Speaker 1: still up some thirty forty percent from when the war began.
- 5:38Speaker 1: Just some last week. They are trying to find some
- 5:41Speaker 1: sort of off ramp. Let's go ahead and put a
- 5:44Speaker 1: two up there, or sorry, a one b up here
- 5:47Speaker 1: on the screen. This is a Wall Street Journal story
- 5:50Speaker 1: breaking late last night. What it says, as you guys
- 5:52Speaker 1: can see in front of you, is that some of
- 5:53Speaker 1: Trump's advisors in recent days have encouraged him to articulate
- 5:56Speaker 1: a plan to extract the US from the war with Iran,
- 5:59Speaker 1: make the case that the military had largely achieved its objectives.
- 6:03Speaker 1: While many in the president's conservative base still support the operation,
- 6:06Speaker 1: some of his advisors have privately expressed concerns that a
- 6:08Speaker 1: longer war could deplete that support, so they're talking about
- 6:11Speaker 1: political backlash, which again I actually think at this point
- 6:14Speaker 1: is the least of their problems, because just this morning
- 6:18Speaker 1: we hear from the United Arab Emirates that one of
- 6:20Speaker 1: the largest refineries in the entire country, in the entire
- 6:23Speaker 1: Middle East is now on fire, and they're like, hey, everybody,
- 6:27Speaker 1: please stop circulating rumor, but yes, we are trying to
- 6:30Speaker 1: contain far a fire. I love the vague nature which
- 6:33Speaker 1: they released it, Like when Saudi Arabia said incoming missiles
- 6:36Speaker 1: into Dahron, please don't panic, and I was like, Doron
- 6:39Speaker 1: is where Saudi Aramcoin is, so maybe we should panic.
- 6:42Speaker 1: Same here with the UAE. We know multiple targets were
- 6:44Speaker 1: struck overnight all across both Iran, which we're going to
- 6:48Speaker 1: show you in a little bit, and this morning we're
- 6:49Speaker 1: already waking up to the news that's more significant oil
- 6:52Speaker 1: infrastructure has been hit. So the war continues to widen.
- 6:55Speaker 1: I think what the advisors are pointing to is that
- 6:58Speaker 1: they can see gas prices look maybe not one hundred
- 7:01Speaker 1: and twenty even ninety. I mean, it's high, is very high,
- 7:04Speaker 1: and the only reason I think that it's currently trading
- 7:06Speaker 1: around ninety right now. Is that, and we'll get to
- 7:08Speaker 1: this in a little bit, is that the G seven
- 7:10Speaker 1: nations have decided that basically that they will they're open
- 7:15Speaker 1: to releasing probably you know, thirty percent of what's already
- 7:19Speaker 1: been lost of the entire strategic petroleum reserve from all
- 7:22Speaker 1: across the world out into the open market to try
- 7:25Speaker 1: and lay those fears same the S and P five hundreds.
- 7:28Speaker 1: As far as I know, how so far.
- 7:30Speaker 3: It's down a little bit, features down a little.
- 7:31Speaker 1: Bit, but not you know, all the way back to
- 7:33Speaker 1: where it was. But the point is is that they
- 7:36Speaker 1: saw this indication as Trump is open to some sort
- 7:40Speaker 1: of offering, but traders have no idea, so you could
- 7:42Speaker 1: see extreme volatility happen. I mean, if you ask me
- 7:44Speaker 1: fire and fury, that's a cell signal.
- 7:47Speaker 3: That's just me well what it's I mean.
- 7:49Speaker 2: Trump's actions yesterday were obviously just a good old fashion
- 7:52Speaker 2: market manipulation. He saw things going south in terms of
- 7:55Speaker 2: the stock market, he saw things going north in.
- 7:57Speaker 3: Terms of the oil prices.
- 7:58Speaker 2: It's like, I got to do something about this because
- 8:00Speaker 2: I got to buy myself some time here as much
- 8:02Speaker 2: time as I can. So he, you know, calls up
- 8:05Speaker 2: this reporter says, oh, we're pretty much done, schedules a
- 8:08Speaker 2: press conference for after the market's closed to be like, well,
- 8:11Speaker 2: you can say that we're done, but also we're just beginning.
- 8:14Speaker 2: It's kind of both at the same time. Somehow, my
- 8:18Speaker 2: read of the situation is he actually would like to
- 8:20Speaker 2: taco and listen to the aids and find some sort
- 8:23Speaker 2: of way out of this, but he's trapped because if
- 8:27Speaker 2: he now like declares mission accomplished and tries to walk away,
- 8:31Speaker 2: the Iranians have been very consistent in saying we're not done.
- 8:35Speaker 2: Oh no, you don't get to say when this is over,
- 8:38Speaker 2: because we know we learned our lesson from the Twelve
- 8:40Speaker 2: Day War. We're not doing a ceasefire with you now
- 8:43Speaker 2: until you have felt the pain. We're going to talk
- 8:45Speaker 2: more about some of the specifics of what the Iranians
- 8:48Speaker 2: are saying, you know, when we get to that portion.
- 8:51Speaker 2: But so he knows if he tries to walk away
- 8:53Speaker 2: there is a very very strong likelihood. But in his
- 8:57Speaker 2: you know, intelligence reports are probably telling him this too,
- 9:00Speaker 2: that the Iranians continue to strike, and so then you
- 9:03Speaker 2: just look incredibly weak. So you know, I think his
- 9:06Speaker 2: aids are it's incredible that they're already leaking to the
- 9:09Speaker 2: press like this is not going well. We want to
- 9:11Speaker 2: find a way out of this thing. I think that
- 9:13Speaker 2: also was probably a signal to the markets, you know,
- 9:16Speaker 2: that they're trying to put out there of like, oh,
- 9:17Speaker 2: we're trying to get out.
- 9:18Speaker 3: Of this, guys.
- 9:19Speaker 2: But this is what we have been talking about. This
- 9:22Speaker 2: is this is the prediction we've been making from the
- 9:24Speaker 2: beginning of this that once you get into this escalatory cycle,
- 9:28Speaker 2: it's not so easy as just putting up the mission
- 9:30Speaker 2: accomplished banner and saying we're going to walk away. So
- 9:33Speaker 2: that's my read of what is going on here. And
- 9:35Speaker 2: you know, I think also obviously they're putting out all
- 9:38Speaker 2: kinds of bluster. You hear Trump there, Oh my god,
- 9:40Speaker 2: they have no more navy, they have no more air force,
- 9:43Speaker 2: they have no more leaders, et cetera, et cetera. They're
- 9:45Speaker 2: basically defeated. You know, we've effectively declared victory here, even
- 9:49Speaker 2: though we're going to keep going. But this leak from
- 9:52Speaker 2: his aide shows that behind the scenes, the picture is
- 9:55Speaker 2: far less rosy, and there are great concerns both in
- 9:58Speaker 2: terms of the economic fallo, the military damage, and the
- 10:02Speaker 2: political fallout.
- 10:03Speaker 1: Let me give you headlines from just the last thirty
- 10:05Speaker 1: five minutes. Al Jazeerra correspondent explosion following sirens in northern
- 10:09Speaker 1: Tel Aviv. A'll Upbar correspondent, Lebanese Army soldier killed in
- 10:14Speaker 1: the conflict with Israel, Abu Dhabi authorities, fire broke out
- 10:18Speaker 1: in the Ros industrial complex, and then another Lebanese Army
- 10:21Speaker 1: soldier was killed. And explosions in Doha, Qatar and as
- 10:25Speaker 1: well as the UA. So there you go. I mean,
- 10:27Speaker 1: this is all just in the last thirty forty five minutes.
- 10:29Speaker 1: You're ready for this week on the show.
- 10:31Speaker 2: A top Iranian security official tells Trump be careful not
- 10:34Speaker 2: to get eliminated yourself. So this is the kind of
- 10:37Speaker 2: rhetoric that you know is coming from the Iranians, as
- 10:39Speaker 2: that sound like people who want to back down their leader.
- 10:42Speaker 2: Now is the dude, who's mom, dad, wife and son
- 10:45Speaker 2: you just murdered?
- 10:46Speaker 1: So you think your relatives in there too?
- 10:48Speaker 2: Yeah, there's yeah, other yeah, children, relatives to whatever. They Yeah,
- 10:53Speaker 2: all mass murdered. You think he's in a conciliatory mood?
- 10:56Speaker 2: Do you think he's ready to shake hands and say okay,
- 10:58Speaker 2: well let's uh, you know, let's go back to the
- 10:59Speaker 2: negotiating table.
- 11:00Speaker 3: I don't think so. And by the way, you know.
- 11:03Speaker 2: With this sort of rudder, which is extreme, can you
- 11:07Speaker 2: really complain when you just assassinated their head of state
- 11:10Speaker 2: and are openly threading the new one? I mean, Trump
- 11:12Speaker 2: got asked about I don't think we've pulled the clip.
- 11:14Speaker 2: But Trump got asked, hey, you know, are you thinking
- 11:16Speaker 2: of killing the new Supreme Leaner. He's like, yeah, maybe
- 11:18Speaker 2: if he doesn't comply, yeah, we may do.
- 11:20Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 11:20Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 11:21Speaker 1: He kept that open and you can already see how
- 11:24Speaker 1: that is working. Now again, we just want to stick
- 11:27Speaker 1: to show you the American press. Part of the reason
- 11:30Speaker 1: we're so happy by the people who watch this show.
- 11:32Speaker 1: So I'm watching this press conference yesterday. My wife's mad
- 11:34Speaker 1: at me because I'm not being able to help out
- 11:35Speaker 1: with the baby. It's late at night at aka like
- 11:38Speaker 1: six pm, and I'm like, okay, you know, let's get
- 11:40Speaker 1: some good questions in here. And this is the shit
- 11:43Speaker 1: that I hear. You sear some reporter out there who goes, wait,
- 11:45Speaker 1: but if you do, Taco, then aren't you letting down
- 11:48Speaker 1: the Iranian people. Let's take a listen.
- 11:51Speaker 2: You promise the Iranian people you would help them, but
- 11:53Speaker 2: it sounds like you're willing to end this fight after
- 11:55Speaker 2: your military objectives have wrapped up.
- 11:57Speaker 1: Isn't that in a betrayal?
- 11:58Speaker 4: Well, I help them. I'd like to if they can behave,
- 12:03Speaker 4: but they've been very menacing. You know, they're great people.
- 12:06Speaker 4: They have an amazing population. It's an amazing smart, brilliant, energetic.
- 12:14Speaker 4: They have a great point. I'd love to help them,
- 12:16Speaker 4: but they have to be in a system that allows
- 12:17Speaker 4: them to be helped.
- 12:19Speaker 1: Yeah, so the only adversarial the journalism that we occasionally
- 12:22Speaker 1: get is a reporter being like but if you end it,
- 12:24Speaker 1: wouldn't that stop helping the Iranian people. You want to
- 12:27Speaker 1: see how we're helping out the Iranian people. Let's go
- 12:29Speaker 1: to a three. Let's show some of this stuff from
- 12:32Speaker 1: last night. By the way, the president in the middle
- 12:34Speaker 1: of a speech is talking about how, oh, if Iran
- 12:36Speaker 1: doesn't capitulate, we're going to go after their energy grid. Meanwhile,
- 12:40Speaker 1: in the video that you all just saw, that was
- 12:42Speaker 1: a strike in the middle of Tehran where you see
- 12:44Speaker 1: that massive flash which analysts are indicating is a power
- 12:48Speaker 1: transformer which caused a massive blackout across the entire city.
- 12:52Speaker 1: I mean, look at this, it's out of a movie.
- 12:54Speaker 1: It's like it's literally out of a movie in four
- 12:57Speaker 1: K video where all of us just get to see
- 12:59Speaker 1: what happenings with some of these explosions. So that's apparently
- 13:03Speaker 1: how we're helping the Iranian people, the great people of Iran,
- 13:06Speaker 1: who are just going to rally around the American flag
- 13:09Speaker 1: and greet us in the Israelis as liberators. Meanwhile, by
- 13:12Speaker 1: the way, as all indications go forward, A five put
- 13:15Speaker 1: this up here on the screen. More confirmation of everything
- 13:18Speaker 1: that we warned you about yesterday. Capturing Iran's highly enriched
- 13:21Speaker 1: uranium would require a large US ground force, sources say.
- 13:24Speaker 1: So the President continues to weigh that special operation which
- 13:28Speaker 1: would go in and capture all of this nuclear material,
- 13:30Speaker 1: and it would make sense, right cris Loo, because that's
- 13:32Speaker 1: an easy mission accomplished. Well, what did we tell you
- 13:34Speaker 1: all yesterday? You can't just send in small team of
- 13:37Speaker 1: Delta Force. They know you're coming. That's why the eighty
- 13:40Speaker 1: second Airborne has currently been put unnotice and is awaiting orders,
- 13:43Speaker 1: and they can deploy anywhere in the world in like
- 13:45Speaker 1: seventy two hours. This is the exact reason is that
- 13:48Speaker 1: to be able to do so, it would require Yes,
- 13:51Speaker 1: the Delta guys are go in it, but somebody's got
- 13:53Speaker 1: to protect them. So you're going to need all these
- 13:54Speaker 1: air assets, you need large ground force around the area.
- 13:56Speaker 1: The Iranians know that you're coming, they turn it into
- 13:58Speaker 1: a complete death trap. If there have any you know,
- 14:01Speaker 1: IQ left in their leadership and in their military. So
- 14:04Speaker 1: that's why it would require more. And then who knows
- 14:07Speaker 1: how many people are going to get killed in that
- 14:09Speaker 1: type of mission. And it would be some sort of
- 14:12Speaker 1: I think that would be their way of saying mission
- 14:15Speaker 1: a compress is that they would knock it over, but
- 14:17Speaker 1: it would have to end on the same note. If
- 14:19Speaker 1: this is the way that it's going to go down
- 14:21Speaker 1: the way that Afghanistan did. And look, you know you
- 14:22Speaker 1: and I were supported of the decision to get out
- 14:24Speaker 1: of Afghanistan, but you can't deny it was an abject disaster,
- 14:27Speaker 1: right and that yet thirteen Marines were blown up by
- 14:30Speaker 1: some ISIS bomber who were right there at the end,
- 14:32Speaker 1: and it's sunk a decent part of Trump's presidency, it
- 14:34Speaker 1: looked like or sorry Biden's presidency, it looked like a
- 14:37Speaker 1: quagmire and a disaster, and that's that's pretty much how
- 14:40Speaker 1: this is looking right now. For the plan to have
- 14:44Speaker 1: all of these forces on the.
- 14:45Speaker 2: Ground, well, and not only would it require all of
- 14:48Speaker 2: these forces, I mean to say it would be risky
- 14:50Speaker 2: is really to undersell it. One of the analysts that
- 14:52Speaker 2: they interviewed here said the logistics and risk involved would
- 14:55Speaker 2: be prohibitive, meaning that this isn't just risky, this is
- 14:59Speaker 2: practically a wish. You're talking about an operation that would require,
- 15:02Speaker 2: you know, require air cover, require security, require these guys
- 15:05Speaker 2: on the ground, and then you have to find where
- 15:08Speaker 2: this material even is. They have some idea the thought
- 15:13Speaker 2: is that it's still buried, you know, at Isfahan, and
- 15:16Speaker 2: that you'd have to be able to access it through
- 15:17Speaker 2: these tunnels. I mean, that's and that's why I think
- 15:20Speaker 2: they haven't gone forward with this yet because it's just
- 15:22Speaker 2: such an insanely risky, difficult mission. You're begging for scores
- 15:27Speaker 2: of US service members to either be captured or killed.
- 15:30Speaker 2: So you know, the the quote unquote easy mission accomplished
- 15:33Speaker 2: moment is not going to be easy whatsoever, and could
- 15:36Speaker 2: only further deepen and entrench this conflict, not to mention,
- 15:40Speaker 2: kill a bunch of Americans. So that is the landscape
- 15:43Speaker 2: that they're ultimately looking at here. You know, there's another development.
- 15:47Speaker 2: I'm curious when you think of this saga, This is
- 15:49Speaker 2: you know, a little hard to parts. This comes from
- 15:51Speaker 2: Barack Revied. We could put this up on the screen.
- 15:52Speaker 2: Trump apparently spoke with Putin. This is a six claiming
- 15:56Speaker 2: that they discussed an end to the Iran war in
- 16:00Speaker 2: a phone call. The Kremlin says that the Russian president
- 16:03Speaker 2: presented a proposal. You know, it was the Russians who originally,
- 16:07Speaker 2: you know, leaked the the fact that this phone call happened,
- 16:11Speaker 2: and then clearly the White House gave some details to
- 16:14Speaker 2: Barak Revied. But this comes to miss reports that Russia
- 16:17Speaker 2: has been helping Iran quite a bit with intelligence, which
- 16:21Speaker 2: is crucial. I mean, we've been doing the same thing
- 16:23Speaker 2: with Ukraine in terms of yeah, yeah, for years and
- 16:27Speaker 2: you know, certainly in the context of the of you know,
- 16:29Speaker 2: after Russia invaded Ukraine, and that has been incredibly important
- 16:34Speaker 2: for the Ukrainians and their ability to sustain you know,
- 16:36Speaker 2: the lines, the battle lines that they've been able to
- 16:40Speaker 2: sustain their ability to target, including targeting within Russia that
- 16:43Speaker 2: has all been enabled by US, and Russia reportedly is
- 16:47Speaker 2: doing the same for Iran, which is why, you know,
- 16:49Speaker 2: there have been a bunch of reports, including from our
- 16:51Speaker 2: friends at drop site, that the US was shocked by
- 16:54Speaker 2: some of the targeting, including the ability to know where
- 16:57Speaker 2: service members were, which hotel rooms, our service members we're
- 17:01Speaker 2: staying in, and other personnel we're staying in.
- 17:05Speaker 3: So you know, that's the backstory here.
- 17:08Speaker 2: So to have this conversation happening right now is you know,
- 17:10Speaker 2: it's an interesting development.
- 17:12Speaker 1: Well, there was another piece of the press conference where
- 17:14Speaker 1: Trump did not get specific, but he said we'll be
- 17:16Speaker 1: removing sanctions from some countries for oil. It's obviously you know,
- 17:20Speaker 1: it's right after a call with Putin. Now listen, I'm
- 17:23Speaker 1: not for the oil sanctions, so I don't care. But
- 17:25Speaker 1: if you're one of those neo cons who's been beating
- 17:27Speaker 1: their chest for Ukraine you want to cut off Russian oil,
- 17:30Speaker 1: how much of an idiot do you look like that? Now?
- 17:32Speaker 3: Well, India already got their waivered.
- 17:33Speaker 1: Maybe you got their waiver from Russian, I.
- 17:35Speaker 3: Mean, which is insane that they need such.
- 17:37Speaker 1: A right or whatever.
- 17:38Speaker 3: Couldn't be pathetic on there.
- 17:40Speaker 1: But all right, so let's put that to the side.
- 17:43Speaker 1: So now Trump and Putin are in a long phone
- 17:45Speaker 1: call and Putin, I mean, what you think he's not
- 17:47Speaker 1: gonna sweet. He's like, hey, you want to bring the
- 17:49Speaker 1: price of oil down, I'll help you. Just take some
- 17:51Speaker 1: of these sanctions off. No worries, it's all good. We
- 17:53Speaker 1: can even move towards a peace settlement in Ukraine. Meanwhile,
- 17:57Speaker 1: Kremlin war coffers are going up like this. If you
- 18:00Speaker 1: there's one of his advisors, Putin's advisors, he's on Twitter.
- 18:02Speaker 1: You guys should really go and follow them. His name
- 18:04Speaker 1: is Kirol something I forget. He's out. He's very open
- 18:07Speaker 1: about it. He's like, thank you United States. One hundred
- 18:09Speaker 1: dollars per barrel. This is the best thing that's ever
- 18:11Speaker 1: happened to us over at the Kremlin. We can use
- 18:14Speaker 1: this to our advantage. You've just taken out a significant
- 18:16Speaker 1: chunk of the global supply. He's like, oh, we're going
- 18:18Speaker 1: to use all this money to kill the Ukrainian Nazis.
- 18:21Speaker 1: That's how they talk, right, So they're open. You just
- 18:24Speaker 1: massively empowered the Russians. Another huge piece of news about
- 18:30Speaker 1: South Korea. I'll save that for our talk with Brandon.
- 18:32Speaker 1: It's literally breaking right now, it's absolutely shocking. But the
- 18:34Speaker 1: last thing I did want, of course, to note, is
- 18:37Speaker 1: about this strike on the girls school, the elementary school,
- 18:40Speaker 1: where Trump, again I could not believe that this was
- 18:43Speaker 1: actually happening. Where a reporter I think it was Manu
- 18:46Speaker 1: Raju over at CNN. He's a pretty good reporter and
- 18:48Speaker 1: he's like, hey, so what happened with this Tomahawk missile?
- 18:50Speaker 1: A video and it shows hitting a girls school and
- 18:53Speaker 1: Trump goes, well, a lot of people have Tomahawk missiles,
- 18:55Speaker 1: including Iran. I'm not joking, that's what he said. Let's
- 18:58Speaker 1: take a listen.
- 19:02Speaker 6: Missile striking.
- 19:03Speaker 4: A Tomahawk missile likely destroyed that Iranian girls' school.
- 19:08Speaker 1: So will the Americans? Will the US accept any responsibility?
- 19:11Speaker 4: Well, I haven't seen it, and I will say that
- 19:14Speaker 4: the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around,
- 19:17Speaker 4: is used by you know, he's sold and used by
- 19:20Speaker 4: other countries, you know that. And whether it's Iran who
- 19:24Speaker 4: also has some Tomahawks, they wish they had more. But
- 19:28Speaker 4: whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that a tomahawk.
- 19:31Speaker 4: A Tomahawk is very generic. It's sold to other countries,
- 19:35Speaker 4: but that's being investigated right now.
- 19:38Speaker 1: Super generic missile. Only the United States, Britain, and Australia have.
- 19:43Speaker 3: Even Israel does not have these things.
- 19:45Speaker 1: Right, So, I mean, it's like, I mean, I'm not
- 19:48Speaker 1: I'm laughing, but I'm not laughing, Like that's an insane
- 19:51Speaker 1: thing to say. And actually reporter confronted him later on.
- 19:54Speaker 1: It was great Sean McCree shout out over the New
- 19:56Speaker 1: York Times. Been a fan of his for a long time,
- 19:58Speaker 1: and he was like, why are you the only person
- 20:00Speaker 1: in your government saying that Iran has a Tomahawk missas Like,
- 20:02Speaker 1: not even your own secretary of Defense says that, And
- 20:04Speaker 1: he goes, well, we're investigating it, and I'll live with
- 20:07Speaker 1: whatever the report was. So even he walked it back
- 20:10Speaker 1: in the immediate term.
- 20:11Speaker 2: McCree was like, you're saying that Iran somehow got a
- 20:15Speaker 2: Tomahawk missile and bombed their own school. No one else
- 20:20Speaker 2: is saying that. Why are you the only person that's
- 20:23Speaker 2: saying that? And then Trump backbattles to like, well, there's
- 20:25Speaker 2: an investigation. I mean, just unbelievable bullshit. That even Pete
- 20:30Speaker 2: egseth Is you know, has enough shame that he won't
- 20:33Speaker 2: go along with so they default to like, oh, it's
- 20:35Speaker 2: an investigation, and you know this has been like it
- 20:38Speaker 2: should be, and it is a massive scandal. It should
- 20:40Speaker 2: be an even bigger scandal. But I've seen even you know,
- 20:43Speaker 2: Laura Ingram is like there needs to be answers to this,
- 20:45Speaker 2: like how did this happen?
- 20:47Speaker 3: Because the other.
- 20:47Speaker 2: Piece is, you know, best case scenario, it's just a
- 20:50Speaker 2: horrific mistake. But then you're like, why was it a
- 20:52Speaker 2: double tap strike? Then how did that happen? And then
- 20:55Speaker 2: the other question obviously is was this an AI generated target?
- 21:00Speaker 3: That why this occurred?
- 21:01Speaker 2: Because there was another instance where they bombed something called
- 21:05Speaker 2: police Park.
- 21:06Speaker 3: Now this may have been.
- 21:07Speaker 2: The Israelis, because it's been largely the Israelis who have
- 21:10Speaker 2: been bombing the you know, the police stations, just trying
- 21:13Speaker 2: to completely break down any sort of civil order and
- 21:16Speaker 2: create the you know, Foamon, the conditions for this you know,
- 21:20Speaker 2: imaginary uprising, same thing that they did in Gaza, by
- 21:23Speaker 2: the way, when they were trying to get the people
- 21:25Speaker 2: to rise up against waws.
- 21:26Speaker 3: Obviously that never happened either.
- 21:28Speaker 2: But in any case, in the context of botoming all
- 21:30Speaker 2: these police stations, they bombed something called police.
- 21:33Speaker 3: Park, which is literally just a park.
- 21:36Speaker 2: So what seemed to indicate potentially, you know, AI was
- 21:40Speaker 2: just generating like anything that says police, let's just bomb that.
- 21:43Speaker 2: There was no intensive human review to find out you're
- 21:46Speaker 2: literally bombing like a playground in a soccer field or
- 21:49Speaker 2: something like that, And so they go forward with that
- 21:52Speaker 2: like how did this happen? Because bombing in an elementary
- 21:56Speaker 2: school where you have one hundred and sixty eight girls
- 21:58Speaker 2: who are now murdered and more than a dozen of
- 22:01Speaker 2: their teachers who are now murdered on the very first
- 22:04Speaker 2: day of the world of the war is a moral atrocity.
- 22:08Speaker 2: And it also you know, we're going to show you
- 22:11Speaker 2: some of the hardening of nationalists sentiment within the country.
- 22:15Speaker 2: Like when you see your little children being murdered at
- 22:19Speaker 2: the hands of this you know, enemy government that attacked
- 22:22Speaker 2: you on the legally attacked you on the blue and
- 22:24Speaker 2: killed your leader, et cetera. You know, how do you
- 22:26Speaker 2: think that's going to make people feel? It's going to
- 22:28Speaker 2: make them much more committed to want to fight and
- 22:31Speaker 2: die for the cause of their country. So you know,
- 22:34Speaker 2: just disgusting for Trump to lie and is so honestly,
- 22:38Speaker 2: so disrespectful to the people of the world and the
- 22:42Speaker 2: people of this country to think we're just going to
- 22:44Speaker 2: buy this bullshit. You know, I'm sure his cult members will,
- 22:47Speaker 2: but the rest of the country is going to look
- 22:49Speaker 2: at this and be like that is utter and complete garbage.
- 22:51Speaker 1: Should be horrified by it. I also think that it's
- 22:53Speaker 1: a massive disservice to the military. It's one of those
- 22:56Speaker 1: where we had a culture originally, and again you can
- 22:59Speaker 1: say a lot of bad things about Iraq and Afghanistan,
- 23:02Speaker 1: but generally there was a culture and I covered many
- 23:05Speaker 1: of these. Yeah, when you did something like this, you
- 23:07Speaker 1: were gonna pay.
- 23:08Speaker 3: It was a scandal.
- 23:09Speaker 2: There was going to be a real investigation. There were
- 23:11Speaker 2: likely to be some kind of consequences.
- 23:13Speaker 1: And the thing is is that and think about this too.
- 23:15Speaker 1: Now you've got the person who probably fired the tomahawk.
- 23:18Speaker 1: They've got to live with this forever. The only way
- 23:20Speaker 1: that they should be able to live with it is
- 23:22Speaker 1: to know that there's accountability up the chain of command.
- 23:25Speaker 1: Because again, the individual sailors or any of other people
- 23:28Speaker 1: who fired these they don't know, they're just programming things,
- 23:30Speaker 1: you know, from the Pentagon. Who in the Pentagon created
- 23:33Speaker 1: the strike package? What was the process where the strike
- 23:35Speaker 1: package happened? Remember my Lie? I mean we did a
- 23:37Speaker 1: whole after action thing on the my Lie massacre or
- 23:40Speaker 1: any of the atrocities, the kun't Dou's hospital. I read
- 23:42Speaker 1: the whole report. You can you can google it. You
- 23:43Speaker 1: can go and read it for yourself. You want to
- 23:45Speaker 1: know the step by step process. It used to be
- 23:47Speaker 1: one where we would take this stuff very seriously. Now
- 23:50Speaker 1: I was, oh, it was Iran. I mean again the
- 23:52Speaker 1: way that you know that it wasn't because I even
- 23:54Speaker 1: saw some cope, not even cope. But somebody said, you know,
- 23:57Speaker 1: one alternative, which is or even more horrifying, is that
- 24:01Speaker 1: whenever we struck Iran previously, that they were able to
- 24:03Speaker 1: acquire a dud Tomhawk missile. And I was like, I'm
- 24:06Speaker 1: pretty sure that that didn't happen. There would but if
- 24:09Speaker 1: it did, that would be as much of a scandal,
- 24:11Speaker 1: you know. At the same time, but beyond like all
- 24:15Speaker 1: of this.
- 24:15Speaker 3: Yeah, so far fast, pretty purpose.
- 24:18Speaker 1: It has to be fired and create you know, It's
- 24:20Speaker 1: like it's not so simple. It's just like getting a
- 24:23Speaker 1: Tomhawk missile. But the whole point around for our military
- 24:26Speaker 1: culture is one where you don't want to encourage cover
- 24:30Speaker 1: up or you know, or make it so that you
- 24:32Speaker 1: don't acknowledge these types of incidents, because we know from
- 24:35Speaker 1: our long history that would only encourage and institutionalize a
- 24:39Speaker 1: bad process, and that's not what we want. It's counter
- 24:42Speaker 1: toward strategic games, our tactical aames obviously, and also one
- 24:45Speaker 1: hundred and sixty eight people are one hundred and sixty
- 24:46Speaker 1: eight little girls are literally dead. It's it's insane not
- 24:50Speaker 1: to mention what seven US soldiers. I just saw the news.
- 24:53Speaker 1: You know, one of those guys who they're claiming one
- 24:55Speaker 1: of those guys you were claiming had to help died
- 24:57Speaker 1: of at heltical NYPD, father of six children, you know,
- 25:03Speaker 1: coming back and in a coffin like it's it's the
- 25:06Speaker 1: worst possible thing for all of these people who are involved.
- 25:10Speaker 2: Last I was just gonna say to your point about
- 25:12Speaker 2: you know, look, obviously I have long term critiques of
- 25:16Speaker 2: the US military and you know, the lack of care
- 25:18Speaker 2: for civilians and all of that.
- 25:19Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, the first.
- 25:21Speaker 2: Like big video that WikiLeaks published was the Collateral murderer
- 25:26Speaker 2: video which showed an Apache helicopter targeting you know, journalists
- 25:30Speaker 2: and civilians, and that was a massive scandal, you know,
- 25:34Speaker 2: and so you know, I think partly too what has
- 25:38Speaker 2: happened here is with all of us watching the Gaza
- 25:42Speaker 2: genocide happen on our timelines, they do think that they
- 25:46Speaker 2: can just get away with anything. And now you see
- 25:48Speaker 2: the US directly copying the Israeli tactics of Okay, if
- 25:53Speaker 2: we do, if we spark a little public outrage, we'll
- 25:56Speaker 2: just say, you know, oh, we don't know, maybe it
- 25:58Speaker 2: was them. Maybe first we'll try, oh, maybe it was
- 26:00Speaker 2: actually the Iranians who bombed their own elementary school. See
- 26:04Speaker 2: if people will buy that, and if they won't, then
- 26:06Speaker 2: you say, oh, there'll be an investigation, and then you
- 26:08Speaker 2: just you know, let the news cycle move on.
- 26:10Speaker 3: And that's where we are.
- 26:12Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 26:12Speaker 1: Last thing we want to show you was this report
- 26:15Speaker 1: from inside of Iran. Doctor Mohammad Moran, now again he
- 26:19Speaker 1: joined John Kirkau. We always give the caveat. He's very
- 26:23Speaker 1: pro regime. He has sources, though, so we try to
- 26:25Speaker 1: try to show show you all sides of the conflict.
- 26:27Speaker 1: He says that Iran wants to wait until the midterms
- 26:30Speaker 1: are over in order to keep this war going as
- 26:32Speaker 1: long as possible. Let's take a listen.
- 26:34Speaker 6: I've been informed today by a significant political figure that
- 26:41Speaker 6: Iran plans to continue this war until the midterms in
- 26:45Speaker 6: the United States.
- 26:48Speaker 3: And.
- 26:49Speaker 6: They will. They are planning to make the United force
- 26:55Speaker 6: the United As to leave. And the more this war escalates,
- 27:00Speaker 6: the darker it becomes for US allies across the region.
- 27:05Speaker 6: For the Arab family dictatorships in the Persian Gulf, this
- 27:10Speaker 6: if it continues for much longer, they won't survive. Remember
- 27:14Speaker 6: these are all dictatorships, family dictatorships, and the passport holders
- 27:19Speaker 6: in these small entities are sometimes ten to fifteen percent
- 27:27Speaker 6: of the whole population. So in the Emirates you have
- 27:31Speaker 6: one point four million people who are amortis the rest
- 27:35Speaker 6: ten million or so. I guess they're they're they're there.
- 27:42Speaker 6: But if the state collapses, those slaves and in the
- 27:46Speaker 6: indentured servants and the underclass, they may have something to
- 27:51Speaker 6: say about the future of Emirates or Patar or Kuwait.
- 27:57Speaker 1: So you could see, they're the strategic calculus from side.
- 28:00Speaker 1: And here's the thing, you don't even really need to
- 28:02Speaker 1: trust him. I think you just need to look at
- 28:03Speaker 1: their public statements. We're not going to surrender the going
- 28:06Speaker 1: after President Trump in retaliation for some sort of fire
- 28:09Speaker 1: and fury. I also think everyone should really pay attention
- 28:11Speaker 1: to all of our interviews with doctor Treja Parsi, because
- 28:14Speaker 1: he was dead on before the war and he's been
- 28:15Speaker 1: dead on since. And he's like, look, if they end
- 28:17Speaker 1: the war right now, they're going to be very weak.
- 28:19Speaker 1: And they believe too in their hearts that the Twelve
- 28:22Speaker 1: Day War ending was a disaster because it gave the
- 28:25Speaker 1: Israelis in the US time to rearm before they hit
- 28:27Speaker 1: them again. How could they possibly have any assurance that
- 28:30Speaker 1: they won't get hit again after we bomb them twice twice,
- 28:33Speaker 1: that we've launched wars with them after, you know, and
- 28:36Speaker 1: under the cover of diplomacy, you would never trust that
- 28:39Speaker 1: ever again. The only way to make any sort of
- 28:41Speaker 1: trust is to inflict maximum damage for as long as possible,
- 28:45Speaker 1: try and destroy the global economy, like that's their one
- 28:48Speaker 1: chance at being able to survive. You've got the new Ayahtola,
- 28:52Speaker 1: Who's I mean? I can't even give you the list
- 28:53Speaker 1: of how many relatives this guy is dead. I read
- 28:56Speaker 1: a profile of him yesterday. We really don't know much
- 28:58Speaker 1: about him. We only heard his voice once apparently in
- 29:00Speaker 1: public in twenty twenty four, but the only propaganda video
- 29:04Speaker 1: of him released is cleaning his gun during the iron
- 29:06Speaker 1: I Rock War. Not great. Also, somebody who had apparently
- 29:10Speaker 1: long fostered relations with the IRGC and tried to put
- 29:14Speaker 1: down or you know, bolster some of the hardline factions
- 29:17Speaker 1: during protest in nine. So you've got the ideological component,
- 29:20Speaker 1: the fact that his you know, his father has been killed,
- 29:23Speaker 1: his wife, his daughter or sorry, his son, one of
- 29:25Speaker 1: his children who is killed in this strike. And you're like, oh, man,
- 29:28Speaker 1: like we're dealing with somebody. If anything, this is the
- 29:30Speaker 1: guy who's going to repeal a Fatland nuclear weapons You
- 29:33Speaker 1: could understand from a psychological personal perspective and in ideological
- 29:37Speaker 1: you've used those two things together, what would you do?
- 29:40Speaker 2: And a tactical perspective they for this is from their
- 29:43Speaker 2: own strategic perspective, they should have pursued a nuke that
- 29:47Speaker 2: would have been a desserent. I mean, so you know
- 29:49Speaker 2: there have been many hardliners who have you know, pushed
- 29:53Speaker 2: in that direction, but it has not happened, I think
- 29:55Speaker 2: predominantly because of the fatoua that was issued by the
- 29:58Speaker 2: now dead Isatola, And so yeah, you could easily see
- 30:01Speaker 2: and think of the insanity of that.
- 30:03Speaker 3: Think of the insanity of that.
- 30:05Speaker 2: So one of the many stated goals of this whole
- 30:08Speaker 2: war is to prevent them from getting from acquiring a
- 30:12Speaker 2: nuclear weapon. And there is a very strong possibility you've
- 30:15Speaker 2: just made it more likely that they will pursue a
- 30:18Speaker 2: nuclear weapon, not less. Last thing to your point about
- 30:21Speaker 2: Tree to Party, I just wanted to read his analysis.
- 30:23Speaker 2: He posted about the Trump press conference, which was, as
- 30:27Speaker 2: we said, all over the place. He said, Trump's all
- 30:29Speaker 2: over the place press or appears to have had two
- 30:30Speaker 2: key objectives. A call the markets by signaling the conflict
- 30:34Speaker 2: may student be over because it had been so quote
- 30:35Speaker 2: unquote successful, And b prepare the ground for Trump ending
- 30:39Speaker 2: the war through a unilateral declaration of victory. Though ending
- 30:42Speaker 2: a war that never should have starred in the first place,
- 30:44Speaker 2: rather than finding endlessly in the pursuit of an illusory
- 30:46Speaker 2: victory as the US didn't have Afghanistan, is the right move,
- 30:49Speaker 2: it will not be as easy as Trump appears to think.
- 30:53Speaker 2: Tehran also has a vote, and there is little to
- 30:56Speaker 2: suggest that it will agree that the war is over,
- 30:59Speaker 2: and then he goes on to talk more about the
- 31:01Speaker 2: Iranian perspective. But that is really the bottom line here.
- 31:06Speaker 2: Even if Trump wants to taco, and there are some
- 31:09Speaker 2: indications here that he and his advisors are trying to
- 31:11Speaker 2: look for a way to taco, which would be great,
- 31:14Speaker 2: even if he does that, he may be already in
- 31:17Speaker 2: a trap. The Iranians do not seem to be in
- 31:20Speaker 2: any mood to back down. So that is the lay
- 31:23Speaker 2: of the land as of today. It is, you know,
- 31:25Speaker 2: looks like we are in an escalation trap. Looks like
- 31:29Speaker 2: this thing is only expanding, only going to get more
- 31:32Speaker 2: dead lee, only going to grind on further into you
- 31:35Speaker 2: know what, may end up being sort of war of
- 31:37Speaker 2: attrition where you know, that's why we're going to talk
- 31:38Speaker 2: to Brandon Wikert later on. You know what lasts longer
- 31:42Speaker 2: our interceptors or their drones, which they're able, by the way,
- 31:46Speaker 2: to continuously manufacture, which one is willing to bear more pain.
- 31:50Speaker 2: The Iranians, for whom this is literally existential in terms
- 31:54Speaker 2: of both their lives and their country, Or the Americans
- 31:58Speaker 2: who do not even want this war and are not
- 32:01Speaker 2: interested in paying any sort of price for it. You know,
- 32:03Speaker 2: I think most Americans probably sort of like the idea of, oh,
- 32:05Speaker 2: the Iranians are bad, let's overflip throw their regime, but
- 32:08Speaker 2: they do not support this and they're not willing to
- 32:11Speaker 2: bear much of any cost in order to accomplish the
- 32:14Speaker 2: ever shifting goals articulated by the Trump regim.
- 32:17Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. Let's move on to Israel.
- 32:21Speaker 2: Yeah, so we've got, you know, sort of a parallel
- 32:24Speaker 2: story here going on from the Israelis, where we just
- 32:26Speaker 2: talked about how some of Trump's aids are leaking to
- 32:29Speaker 2: the press, like we're trying to figure out how to
- 32:31Speaker 2: get out of this thing. Well, the Israelis are apparently
- 32:34Speaker 2: leaking to David Ignatius, who's known to be very like
- 32:36Speaker 2: tied in with the deep state over at the Washington
- 32:38Speaker 2: Post that they are also concerned. So this is worth
- 32:42Speaker 2: taking note of with interest. Put this up on the screen.
- 32:45Speaker 2: So the headline is Israeli officials are growing concerned. A
- 32:48Speaker 2: bombing campaign nearing its military goals in Iran leaves the
- 32:50Speaker 2: hardest questions unanswered. A few senior officials in Israel are
- 32:55Speaker 2: starting to voice concern about the escalating open ended attack
- 32:59Speaker 2: on Iran and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt
- 33:02Speaker 2: the war before it further damages the region and the
- 33:05Speaker 2: global economy. Talk of an endgame is early, and a
- 33:08Speaker 2: decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with
- 33:11Speaker 2: President Talton Trump. That's not what he said, by the way,
- 33:13Speaker 2: in any case, who continues to seek all out victory.
- 33:16Speaker 2: But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official
- 33:20Speaker 2: familiar with the planning and strategy for the want Ron
- 33:23Speaker 2: war discussed alternatives to Trump's call for unconditional surrender. Official
- 33:28Speaker 2: requested anonymity, So that is kind of the line coming
- 33:32Speaker 2: out from these Israeli officials is, look, our bases are
- 33:36Speaker 2: taking you know, direct hits. We're gonna talk later about
- 33:40Speaker 2: the radars that have been damaged. You know, our golf
- 33:43Speaker 2: allies are really unhappy in a variety of ways.
- 33:47Speaker 3: We'll talk about that as well.
- 33:49Speaker 2: But the Israelis are taking active fire in their country,
- 33:52Speaker 2: and we really don't have a clear view of just
- 33:55Speaker 2: how much damage has been done. But they have to
- 33:58Speaker 2: be looking at the same innerce math that we've been
- 34:01Speaker 2: talking about in the context of this war that we
- 34:03Speaker 2: talked about in the context of the Twelve Day War
- 34:05Speaker 2: and going, I'm not sure how much we are able
- 34:08Speaker 2: or willing to sustain, so they may be you know,
- 34:12Speaker 2: reportedly after the Twelve Day War was really the Israelis
- 34:15Speaker 2: who were the ones who said, let's call this quits
- 34:18Speaker 2: for now, you know, let's come to some sort of
- 34:20Speaker 2: a ceasefire, let's end these hostilities for now. Over precisely
- 34:23Speaker 2: some of these same concerns, and I think soccer they
- 34:26Speaker 2: would probably be happy adopting effectively like a mow the
- 34:30Speaker 2: lawn strategy, like what they've done in Gaza for years
- 34:33Speaker 2: and years, where you go in, destabilize, blow a bunch
- 34:36Speaker 2: of shit up, you know, make it impossible for the
- 34:40Speaker 2: country of Iran to grow and thrive and succeed, you know,
- 34:44Speaker 2: create a bunch of chaos, and then once the price
- 34:47Speaker 2: gets too much to bear for you, or public sentiment
- 34:50Speaker 2: starts to turn. Global sentiment. It should be clear the
- 34:52Speaker 2: Israeli public is very much on board with this war,
- 34:55Speaker 2: but once global sentiment starts to okay, then we'll we'll
- 34:58Speaker 2: you know, we'll stop for now and then will go
- 35:00Speaker 2: back in at a future time. That seems to be
- 35:02Speaker 2: what they're aiming for. But of course, you know, this
- 35:04Speaker 2: is subject to the same problem that the Trumpian logic
- 35:07Speaker 2: of you know, if Trump wants to taco is subject
- 35:09Speaker 2: to as well, which is that they there is another
- 35:11Speaker 2: party to this. And the Iranians seem to have learned
- 35:14Speaker 2: a lesson from the Twelve Day War. They seem to
- 35:16Speaker 2: regret having agreed to that cease fire then, which just
- 35:21Speaker 2: allowed the Israelis and the Americans to rebuild and re
- 35:24Speaker 2: equip so that they could come back in with an
- 35:26Speaker 2: even more aggressive illegal war.
- 35:29Speaker 1: Yeah. And you know, what I see in terms of
- 35:31Speaker 1: the Israeli strategy is more of an acknowledgment of the
- 35:34Speaker 1: widening of the conflict. Where I really do It does
- 35:37Speaker 1: seem to me that the Israelis in the US actually
- 35:40Speaker 1: believed a lot of their own bs that they wouldn't
- 35:42Speaker 1: strike elements of the Gulf. They just thought that this
- 35:45Speaker 1: is a nightmare scenario. Same with the closure of the
- 35:47Speaker 1: Straits of Hormuz. It was one of those like tail
- 35:49Speaker 1: end risks, but not something that was really from what
- 35:52Speaker 1: they were thinking, would happen. I mean. Ignacious even writes
- 35:55Speaker 1: that the bombing campaign was nearing the point of achieving
- 35:58Speaker 1: its military objectives. But what they find is that, of
- 36:01Speaker 1: course we wish to topple the regime, but that's not
- 36:03Speaker 1: the only endgame. This is the Israeli Once the major
- 36:05Speaker 1: military targets have been eliminated, Israel would have achieved its goals.
- 36:08Speaker 1: Iran won't surrender, but it can send messages to accept
- 36:11Speaker 1: a ceasefire within US conditions. But what that ignores is
- 36:15Speaker 1: how the Iranians are going to respond number one, and
- 36:18Speaker 1: they've already gone for the max strategy. But two, I
- 36:21Speaker 1: think what they're also saying from the Israeli perspective is
- 36:23Speaker 1: they're like, oh, man, now we're tied at the hip
- 36:25Speaker 1: here with the United States, with Trump, we're tied at
- 36:28Speaker 1: the hip. Obviously with them, they want to declare this
- 36:30Speaker 1: some sort of regime change, but they're also learning as
- 36:33Speaker 1: we continue to see their strikes all over Israel. I. Mean, look,
- 36:36Speaker 1: the war has already widened. Israeli soldiers have even been killed.
- 36:39Speaker 1: Now with Hesbola, they're having to expand into Lebanon. And
- 36:43Speaker 1: what they like, as you said, is having the boogeyman exists.
- 36:47Speaker 1: But if they actually go forward, then what are they
- 36:48Speaker 1: going to do? They can't rile up their whole population
- 36:51Speaker 1: every few years and say, oh, well, we have to
- 36:53Speaker 1: go bomb them because of their nuclear threat. If they
- 36:55Speaker 1: actually did replace the regime, then they would have first
- 36:58Speaker 1: of all, we'd have to live with their consequences, and
- 37:00Speaker 1: people could see how much of a nightmare that it's
- 37:02Speaker 1: all become. But I think more than anything, this is
- 37:04Speaker 1: probably more about munitions math, and it's about defense readiness
- 37:08Speaker 1: and the reality of a long war and what it's
- 37:11Speaker 1: all going to look like.
- 37:12Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 37:12Speaker 2: Well, and there were also some indications before Trump kicked off.
- 37:15Speaker 3: This war that it was the Israelis.
- 37:17Speaker 2: Again, this was some reporting that came out, you know, Yahoo,
- 37:21Speaker 2: come to know visit Trump in December, and it looks
- 37:25Speaker 2: like that's when they made.
- 37:26Speaker 3: The decision like, okay, we're going to go to war
- 37:28Speaker 3: and all.
- 37:28Speaker 2: In my opinion, all the negotiations were totally fake, as
- 37:30Speaker 2: evidenced by the fact that they sent two guys who
- 37:32Speaker 2: really didn't know what they were talking about in order
- 37:34Speaker 2: to lead these alleged negotiations. And of course, while you're
- 37:37Speaker 2: in the midst of these negotiations and the Iranians have
- 37:39Speaker 2: just given up more concessions than they have ever had,
- 37:42Speaker 2: that's the moment when you choose to actually start the war.
- 37:45Speaker 2: But in any case, there was reporting that it was
- 37:47Speaker 2: actually the Israelis that were like, way, we were not
- 37:49Speaker 2: ready to start yet, and the US moved even more
- 37:53Speaker 2: firepower into the region, moved another carrier strike group into
- 37:56Speaker 2: the region, and so the alleged diplomacy was to kind
- 37:59Speaker 2: of run out the clock so that the war could
- 38:01Speaker 2: start at a time when we would be somewhat more prepared.
- 38:04Speaker 3: Just imagine how disasters.
- 38:06Speaker 2: This would have been if it started even earlier, when
- 38:08Speaker 2: we were less prepared, given what a disaster it already is.
- 38:11Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, the Israelis are the ones taking
- 38:14Speaker 2: the direct hits in their country, and so they've now
- 38:17Speaker 2: realized that I don't know if they ever believe they
- 38:20Speaker 2: probably didn't, that if they decapitated the regime that the
- 38:23Speaker 2: whole thing would collapse. But once that has not come
- 38:26Speaker 2: to fruition, there's no signs that you're going to have
- 38:29Speaker 2: some sort of you.
- 38:30Speaker 3: Know, regime change.
- 38:31Speaker 2: The Kurds are like, we're not getting involved here, You're
- 38:34Speaker 2: you know, not looking at civil war conditions at this point.
- 38:37Speaker 3: Then the next best option.
- 38:38Speaker 2: For Israel is to say, okay, well, we blew up
- 38:41Speaker 2: a bunch of shit. You know, Iran has paid a price.
- 38:44Speaker 2: We'll back off for now, and then we'll come back later.
- 38:46Speaker 2: You know, we'll do the same thing. We got Trump
- 38:48Speaker 2: in office for a few more years we can, you know,
- 38:50Speaker 2: later on, we'll talk them into this again. We'll once
- 38:52Speaker 2: again threaten to strike heron if he doesn't well once again,
- 38:55Speaker 2: you know, talk about how they're rebuilding the nuclear program.
- 38:58Speaker 2: By the way, that might be true now all given
- 39:00Speaker 2: the logic that we have created, it gives them every
- 39:03Speaker 2: incentive to go in that direction. So I think that's
- 39:05Speaker 2: some of the calculus there. At the same time, we
- 39:07Speaker 2: wanted to take a look at our friend Lindsey Graham,
- 39:11Speaker 2: who we covered yesterday, you know, reporting about We already
- 39:15Speaker 2: knew he was very influential in terms of pushing for
- 39:19Speaker 2: this war. This is a near lifelong dream at this point.
- 39:22Speaker 2: There is no one happier, I think, on the planet
- 39:24Speaker 2: right now than this bloodthirsty ghoul. And so he was,
- 39:28Speaker 2: you know, making the rounds over on Fox News yesterday,
- 39:30Speaker 2: just talking about how much he is committed to Israel,
- 39:34Speaker 2: how much he loves Israel, et cetera.
- 39:36Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.
- 39:38Speaker 5: All the anti seminis to all the isolationists, I don't believe.
- 39:43Speaker 5: Forget it. I'm not with you, I'm with Israel. I
- 39:45Speaker 5: will be with Israel to our dying day. They're the
- 39:48Speaker 5: best ally we could hope for. So we have a
- 39:50Speaker 5: commander in chief in President Trump, who I think is
- 39:52Speaker 5: Ronald W. Reagan plus plus plus.
- 39:55Speaker 7: God bless is right.
- 39:56Speaker 5: We should move all our stuff to Israel.
- 39:58Speaker 3: Thank you, God bless is should be of all our
- 40:00Speaker 3: stuff to Israel. I'll be with Israel to my dying day.
- 40:03Speaker 2: I mean, this is a United States senator. Him and
- 40:07Speaker 2: Ted Cruz both ound there are just openly admitting that
- 40:10Speaker 2: this is their number one priority. Calling Trump Ronald Reagan
- 40:13Speaker 2: plus is also really something. And it's important to play
- 40:17Speaker 2: these comments and understand this man's mindset because he has
- 40:20Speaker 2: been very influential. He had a plan to push Trump
- 40:24Speaker 2: in this direction. Again, Trump's a big boy. This is
- 40:26Speaker 2: his fault ultimately, and the reporting is that he ended
- 40:29Speaker 2: up being pretty enthusiastic about going in this direction. But
- 40:32Speaker 2: Lindsey Graham has been there making the case routinely religiously
- 40:38Speaker 2: for years now at this point, and so in a
- 40:41Speaker 2: lot of ways, you know, he is he is driving
- 40:43Speaker 2: this trainer. At least he is incredibly important in terms
- 40:47Speaker 2: of why we ended up being this whole.
- 40:49Speaker 1: It's twenty Magus like, come, President Trump, please keep Lindsey
- 40:52Speaker 1: Graham off the air. He's hurting your case. I'm like, no, no, no, no,
- 40:55Speaker 1: He's the only fucker whos canelling us all the truth, Okay,
- 40:57Speaker 1: that he's in here with a blood relationship with They
- 40:59Speaker 1: have got some like Angelina, Jolie, Billy Bob Thornton wearing
- 41:03Speaker 1: each other's blood around their necks, some satanic ritual that's
- 41:08Speaker 1: going on between the two of them. I don't you know,
- 41:11Speaker 1: we'll only speculate, but that's what's really going on with
- 41:14Speaker 1: old Lindsay and Israel. But that's that's the truth. You know.
- 41:17Speaker 1: Yesterday Lewer Ingram even had Ted Cruz on her show
- 41:20Speaker 1: and she's like, you don't think it's a little weird
- 41:22Speaker 1: that Lindsay Graham is going over to Israel and she know,
- 41:26Speaker 1: coordinating with their intelligence agencies on how to pressure the president. Well,
- 41:29Speaker 1: he loves America, that's what Ted Cruz, because he loves America. No,
- 41:33Speaker 1: he doesn't. He even said at one point in the interview,
- 41:36Speaker 1: He's like I'm going back to South Carolina to convince
- 41:38Speaker 1: them to send their sons and daughters to the Mid East.
- 41:41Speaker 3: I am just like God.
- 41:43Speaker 1: But luck Yeah, and look, people of South Carolina. At
- 41:46Speaker 1: this point, you guys have had plenty of chances. I
- 41:48Speaker 1: don't know what the hell you guys are doing down there,
- 41:50Speaker 1: But you know, the real point that remains is that
- 41:53Speaker 1: we are in some suicidal blood packed with this country.
- 41:58Speaker 1: A significant part of our electorate is either compromised or ideological.
- 42:02Speaker 1: For him, I do think it's ideological one because he's
- 42:05Speaker 1: been saying.
- 42:06Speaker 3: From column A little from column B.
- 42:08Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. I mean, who knows, right, But
- 42:09Speaker 1: I mean he's been saying in for twenty thirty years
- 42:12Speaker 1: like this is his entire worldview. But it does demonstrate
- 42:15Speaker 1: the you know, what we're all into. And the Israelis
- 42:18Speaker 1: may say to David Ignatius that they're a little worried,
- 42:21Speaker 1: but their calculus is always escalate, escalate, escalate, escalate. And
- 42:25Speaker 1: you can also see how in the Gulf we are
- 42:27Speaker 1: dramatically losing a lot of our allies, like let's go
- 42:31Speaker 1: and put to the next one, please be three good example.
- 42:34Speaker 1: So you have the UAE, which says that the Emirates
- 42:37Speaker 1: reaffirms their commitment not to allow their airspace, territory waters
- 42:42Speaker 1: to be used for any military actions against Iran. Now
- 42:45Speaker 1: it's not even true, right, because you can already see
- 42:48Speaker 1: that there has obviously been you know, a lot of
- 42:50Speaker 1: launchers and other things, who knows, even with their own base.
- 42:53Speaker 1: But what they're trying to do is signal to Iran
- 42:56Speaker 1: that they have nothing to do with this. You've also
- 42:58Speaker 1: had multiple instances now where the U is upset with
- 43:01Speaker 1: Israel because they're saying, oh, hey, ISRAELI stop trying to
- 43:04Speaker 1: leak that we are responsible for some attack on a
- 43:06Speaker 1: desalination plan, and even the Iranians are responding. Recently, the
- 43:11Speaker 1: Pentagon posted a picture of some missile batteries that were
- 43:15Speaker 1: in the desert, and the Iranian foreign minister was like,
- 43:17Speaker 1: thank you for confirming that you have these weapons on
- 43:22Speaker 1: their soil, which is the exact reason that we are
- 43:24Speaker 1: striking you.
- 43:25Speaker 2: But the point Trump and his pressery yesterday said that
- 43:28Speaker 2: Golf Indras States had launched attacks, right.
- 43:31Speaker 1: I mean, who knows if that's true or not. Probably
- 43:33Speaker 1: true if you ask me. But let's go to the
- 43:35Speaker 1: next part because this is very interesting. This was passed
- 43:37Speaker 1: around everywhere and referenced it a little bit in our show.
- 43:40Speaker 1: Is this UAE billionaire who has been accusing the US
- 43:44Speaker 1: of dragging the region into the war and rejecting calls
- 43:48Speaker 1: from the Gulf States to join. He'd gave this long
- 43:50Speaker 1: missive I'm sure you saw it, criticized Trump, who authorized
- 43:53Speaker 1: you to drag our region into war? And as I
- 43:56Speaker 1: explained yesterday, there's no such thing as like an independent
- 43:59Speaker 1: billionaire in these countries, like you only speak and you
- 44:02Speaker 1: do it twice, especially if the government is like, yeah, man,
- 44:05Speaker 1: go ahead. All of your you know, it's like China,
- 44:08Speaker 1: like business is part of the state. That's literally how
- 44:11Speaker 1: they wield all of their power. It's all in, it's
- 44:13Speaker 1: intertwined for their own national interests. He is giving you know,
- 44:17Speaker 1: these long like Bill Ackman style essays about how bad
- 44:20Speaker 1: America's decision is, how dangerous it is, how they've weakened
- 44:23Speaker 1: their country, how they have to question their alliances, how
- 44:27Speaker 1: they're not going to join you know, the Gulf the
- 44:30Speaker 1: rest of the Golf States and being dragged in. It's
- 44:32Speaker 1: the last all they want is for this conflict to end.
- 44:36Speaker 1: And you can see why I mean look at this map.
- 44:38Speaker 1: Let's go to the next one, guys, just to show
- 44:40Speaker 1: you all. I mean, look at I mean to describe
- 44:42Speaker 1: this as not a regional a slash global war at
- 44:45Speaker 1: this point is preposterous. If you're watching our show, look
- 44:48Speaker 1: at the arrows of all of the different countries that
- 44:50Speaker 1: have either been attacked or been backed by or sorry
- 44:53Speaker 1: attacked by the United States, Israel, whether they've been bombed,
- 44:58Speaker 1: whether Iran has bombed them, the type of rockets, the
- 45:00Speaker 1: number of strikes, and we're talking about thousands at this
- 45:03Speaker 1: point of munitions that have all crossed all of these
- 45:05Speaker 1: different borders just in the span of what like ten
- 45:08Speaker 1: days that we've gone now so far, I believe that
- 45:10Speaker 1: the number is now twenty different countries that are now
- 45:13Speaker 1: directly or indirectly involved in this conflict. It's completely I mean,
- 45:17Speaker 1: it's gone literally global cypersts. Obviously, the French, the entire
- 45:20Speaker 1: French navy is on its way right now down to
- 45:23Speaker 1: the Middle East. It's literally a catastrophe and it's only
- 45:26Speaker 1: been ten days. Yeas crazy.
- 45:27Speaker 2: Well, and to go back to our friend Lindsay Graham,
- 45:30Speaker 2: I don't know who this man thinks he is, but
- 45:32Speaker 2: he's out there directly like threatening Saudi Arabian offering them
- 45:36Speaker 2: certain defense agreements if they go along and fully participate
- 45:41Speaker 2: in the bombing campaign.
- 45:43Speaker 3: This is B two. Let's go and take a listen
- 45:44Speaker 3: to that.
- 45:45Speaker 1: I only do my friends in Saudi Arabia.
- 45:47Speaker 5: I've been your biggest champion. I think the Crown Prince
- 45:50Speaker 5: has taken Saudi Arabia in a completely different direction, in
- 45:53Speaker 5: a good way. But here's what I want to say
- 45:55Speaker 5: to Saudi Arabia to night. I'm willing to do a
- 45:58Speaker 5: mutual defense agreement with your country to give you protection
- 46:02Speaker 5: and perpetuity. Under the agreement I've been pushing and I
- 46:05Speaker 5: hope we can continue to talk about if you're attacked
- 46:08Speaker 5: by Ran, we would go to war for you.
- 46:10Speaker 3: Who are you?
- 46:11Speaker 1: I said, you said that you're.
- 46:12Speaker 2: Not like, you're not the president, you're not in the cabinet,
- 46:16Speaker 2: you're not the Secretary of War, you're not the secretary
- 46:18Speaker 2: of State. You're now freelancing offering defense agreements to various countries.
- 46:23Speaker 2: And I think the Saudi piece, though, is really important.
- 46:25Speaker 2: I understand why he's so upset about it because there
- 46:28Speaker 2: was some reporting that Saudi was low key or high
- 46:31Speaker 2: key interested in this war, supportive of this war. I
- 46:34Speaker 2: don't know whether that's true or not. The Saudi's denied it.
- 46:36Speaker 2: It could have been, you know, a sort of a
- 46:37Speaker 2: planted story. But in any case, they have a long
- 46:40Speaker 2: term rivalry with Iran, so they also stand to benefit
- 46:43Speaker 2: if Iran and if the Iranian government is weakened.
- 46:47Speaker 3: But at the same.
- 46:48Speaker 2: Respect, you know, they are feeling very exposed. They don't
- 46:52Speaker 2: want their country to continue to be attacked. And so
- 46:55Speaker 2: even Saudi Arabia, which of course has been a very solid,
- 46:58Speaker 2: long time ally of the US, probably our biggest, you know,
- 47:00Speaker 2: one of our biggest allies in the region, our biggest
- 47:03Speaker 2: outside of Israel, if they're even doing the calculus of
- 47:06Speaker 2: like I don't know if we really want to be
- 47:08Speaker 2: involved with this, that shows you the thinking here and
- 47:12Speaker 2: for i Ran, you know, winning this war for Iran
- 47:15Speaker 2: just means survival, right That's the ultimate goal, is just
- 47:18Speaker 2: surviving the onslaught and being able to continue with this
- 47:22Speaker 2: particular governmental regime. That's what winning looks like. But the
- 47:26Speaker 2: bigger aspirational goal would be to push the US out
- 47:30Speaker 2: of some of these countries in the region, And you know,
- 47:33Speaker 2: it seems far fetched at this point. But if you're Saudi,
- 47:36Speaker 2: if you're UAE in particular, and you're looking at the
- 47:39Speaker 2: fact that you thought you were getting protection from the
- 47:42Speaker 2: US and instead it's made you a target, well that
- 47:46Speaker 2: is going to change your calculus. That is going to
- 47:48Speaker 2: change how you're thinking about your relationship with this country
- 47:52Speaker 2: and what you're getting out of it. There was that
- 47:55Speaker 2: wasn't a Saudi analyst. It went on you know, Al
- 47:58Speaker 2: Jazeera and was like was like, they're protect They're not
- 48:00Speaker 2: protecting us, They're protecting the Israelis. That's their number one priority.
- 48:04Speaker 2: And again that wouldn't have been said if it was
- 48:07Speaker 2: not sort of permitted in greenlit by the government. So
- 48:10Speaker 2: they're feeling very exposed. They're begging to be able to
- 48:13Speaker 2: buy more interceptors. We're like not in We've like ghosted them,
- 48:16Speaker 2: not answering their phone calls. Sorry, we don't have any
- 48:18Speaker 2: available to sell you. And if we did, we would
- 48:21Speaker 2: you know, prioritize Israel over you. And they are feeling
- 48:24Speaker 2: like we instead of getting protection to the US, we
- 48:27Speaker 2: have been destroyed. And for you know, for UAE Dubai,
- 48:32Speaker 2: like these places are not going to recover all these
- 48:35Speaker 2: influencers who brought in all these wealthy expats. They are
- 48:39Speaker 2: all fleeing, leaving their dogs behind by the way, which
- 48:42Speaker 2: disgusting to you know, tying them to just like dropping
- 48:44Speaker 2: them off at shelters that are overfull and tying them
- 48:47Speaker 2: to lampposts and whatever and just abandoning them there. But
- 48:50Speaker 2: in any case, they're all fleeing. The brand damage that
- 48:54Speaker 2: Dubai and these other locales are sustaining is going to
- 48:57Speaker 2: be irreparable. I mean, you're talking about generations before that
- 49:02Speaker 2: goes back to the image that it had previously. So yeah,
- 49:06Speaker 2: I understand why he's upset because this is not the
- 49:10Speaker 2: reaction that he wanted from these Gulf states as they
- 49:14Speaker 2: recalculate exactly what they're doing with their US defense partnerships.
- 49:18Speaker 1: It is scary. One of the things I've been holding this.
- 49:20Speaker 1: We're but to talk about this with Brandon Wiker, but
- 49:22Speaker 1: just to give you some more global picture, just this morning,
- 49:26Speaker 1: South Korea and the United States confirming that significant parts
- 49:29Speaker 1: of their THAD batteries those interceptors will be taken from
- 49:33Speaker 1: the South Korean Peninsula for the Middle East, in addition
- 49:36Speaker 1: to Patriot interceptors all across the Indo Pacific region. So
- 49:40Speaker 1: we have burned through five point six billion in munitions
- 49:44Speaker 1: in two days, the first two days of the war.
- 49:46Speaker 1: Five point six billion dollars the munitions disaster. We will
- 49:51Speaker 1: never know the full picture because they're just going to
- 49:53Speaker 1: classify it to hell. Look at the actions. When you
- 49:56Speaker 1: start pulling stuff out of South Korea, that means you've
- 49:58Speaker 1: burned through the stockpile to the point where you think
- 50:00Speaker 1: it's going to be critical and you're going to have
- 50:01Speaker 1: to use it one more week. It's been only been
- 50:03Speaker 1: ten days and we already have to do this. How
- 50:05Speaker 1: are we going to We're going to fight a war
- 50:07Speaker 1: with China? I mean, well, that's the that's the like
- 50:10Speaker 1: the joke of this entire thing.
- 50:12Speaker 3: Forget about it.
- 50:12Speaker 2: I mean, and that also underscores that we've been talking about, Okay,
- 50:15Speaker 2: roughly a billion dollars a day to fund.
- 50:17Speaker 1: This that's not even true.
- 50:18Speaker 3: Definitely, what is that if you're.
- 50:19Speaker 2: Talking about just five point six billion in just munitions.
- 50:22Speaker 2: I mean, God only knows what oil costs.
- 50:25Speaker 1: During the war in Afghanistan, the estimate was that for
- 50:27Speaker 1: every soldier down range it was one million dollars in
- 50:30Speaker 1: order to keep them, and we had one hundred thousand
- 50:32Speaker 1: or some people. So you could do the math and
- 50:34Speaker 1: on how that works out, but it is, it is
- 50:37Speaker 1: such a nightmare for defense readiness for all these allies.
- 50:42Speaker 1: This is going to seriously rewrite the entire way. A
- 50:45Speaker 1: lot of countries look at us, and it was all preventable.
- 50:48Speaker 1: That's the craziest by choice, literal choice preventable. All right,
- 50:52Speaker 1: let's get to Iran.
- 50:55Speaker 2: All right, so we've covered the Americans, cover the Israelis.
- 50:57Speaker 2: Let's talk about how the Iranians are thinking about this war.
- 51:00Speaker 2: Right now, CNN has a reporter on the ground who
- 51:03Speaker 2: was able to interview a top foreign policy advisor to
- 51:06Speaker 2: the Iyatola about their war aims and how they're looking
- 51:09Speaker 2: at things at this point. Let's take a listen to that.
- 51:11Speaker 7: So the United States, it's drastically degraded the Iranian military,
- 51:15Speaker 7: the capabilities as far as missiles, it's concerned, drones is concerned.
- 51:18Speaker 7: How much longer can you do this?
- 51:19Speaker 8: That is one of the false narratives that the United
- 51:26Speaker 8: States government is producing. Iranian military is quite strong, as
- 51:34Speaker 8: you see, because they have the motivation, they have the
- 51:43Speaker 8: arms that they need, which are producing Iran as a
- 51:47Speaker 8: matter of we are not dependent on any other country
- 51:51Speaker 8: for weapons on.
- 51:53Speaker 7: Arms, So your side is ready for a long war
- 51:56Speaker 7: if the United States and Israel choose that. Do you
- 51:59Speaker 7: consider this an existential threat to the Islamic Republic.
- 52:03Speaker 8: It is an extensional threat today is from the Republic,
- 52:06Speaker 8: and therefore we have to say it's full might as
- 52:12Speaker 8: we are doing now.
- 52:13Speaker 7: Is your side seeking or will you seek a ceasefire?
- 52:16Speaker 7: With the United States at this point in time and
- 52:18Speaker 7: with Israel.
- 52:20Speaker 8: I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore because DONALDS
- 52:25Speaker 8: Frum have been deceiving others and not keeping his promises,
- 52:30Speaker 8: and we experienced this in two times of negotiations that
- 52:34Speaker 8: while we were nicaged in negotiation.
- 52:37Speaker 2: I mean that last part there is just in controvertible
- 52:40Speaker 2: fact that we have repeatedly used the promise as of
- 52:44Speaker 2: diplomacy as a ruse and a cover to actually commit
- 52:49Speaker 2: acts of war. So you know, it's not surprising that's
- 52:52Speaker 2: the way they're thinking about it. And of course the Iranians,
- 52:54Speaker 2: you know, they want to project strength, they wanted project stability.
- 52:57Speaker 2: That is all in their interest. And of course you
- 52:58Speaker 2: should take any mine official, whether it's ours, the Israelis,
- 53:01Speaker 2: or the Iranians with a million grains of salt. But
- 53:05Speaker 2: I think that the logic is pretty straightforward. They just
- 53:09Speaker 2: need to survive. They understand they cannot allow Israel and
- 53:13Speaker 2: the US to walk away now having sustained some blow.
- 53:17Speaker 3: But nothing really significant.
- 53:19Speaker 2: You know, American consumers are not super feeling the pain
- 53:21Speaker 2: at the pump quite yet. The markets are volatile, but
- 53:24Speaker 2: they're just sort of roiling rain.
- 53:26Speaker 3: You haven't had a huge collapse.
- 53:28Speaker 2: You have not had enough pain to deter either the
- 53:32Speaker 2: US or America from doing this or sorry, the US
- 53:36Speaker 2: or Israel. They're one and the same at this point,
- 53:37Speaker 2: I guess, from doing the same thing again. And so
- 53:41Speaker 2: I believe them when they say, look, we are locked
- 53:43Speaker 2: in for a long war. This is what we are planning,
- 53:47Speaker 2: and so listen. They have surely sustained significant blows, right.
- 53:52Speaker 2: I think the Navy has been significantly degraded. I think
- 53:55Speaker 2: we have hit a lot of the visible missile launching sites.
- 53:58Speaker 2: I think we've all seeing the images of Tehran, these
- 54:01Speaker 2: apocalyptic images that you know, effectively carpet bombing. The number
- 54:06Speaker 2: of sites, thousands of targets hit, et cetera. So I'm
- 54:09Speaker 2: not saying they haven't been hit hard, but they are
- 54:11Speaker 2: fighting an asymmetric war where what we have to do
- 54:15Speaker 2: is I mean, the goals are shifting on a daily basis.
- 54:17Speaker 2: We got a new list of supposed goals this morning
- 54:19Speaker 2: in this press conference. But what we have to do
- 54:22Speaker 2: requires extraordinary acts, including very likely putting ground troops on,
- 54:26Speaker 2: you know, inside of Iran in order to you know,
- 54:29Speaker 2: grab the loose nuclear material or foem and some sort
- 54:32Speaker 2: of regime change or whatever. And all they have to
- 54:35Speaker 2: do is hold on and make the price unbearably high.
- 54:38Speaker 3: For us and for the Israel.
- 54:39Speaker 1: It's a fight of survival versus a fight basically of
- 54:43Speaker 1: choice of convenience. It's like a side quest basically. Yeah,
- 54:47Speaker 1: that's right at this point. I mean, and that's why
- 54:49Speaker 1: I use legacy, and Trump's legacy, Israel's existential biblical fantasies.
- 54:55Speaker 1: Israel's like Third Temple fantasies. But for us, I mean,
- 54:59Speaker 1: for me, seven killed too many. For them, they've lost
- 55:02Speaker 1: over one thousand people. They barely even blinking an eye.
- 55:05Speaker 1: I mean, we remember, if you roll the tape, we
- 55:07Speaker 1: were like, look, guys, they are prepared to take ninety
- 55:09Speaker 1: percent casualties at the top. They are ready to fight
- 55:12Speaker 1: to the death. I do not think that we understand.
- 55:15Speaker 1: We haven't fought an enemy like that, well actually recently
- 55:18Speaker 1: with the Taliban, but like really at a large industrial
- 55:21Speaker 1: scale since Vietnam, to like really understand what it means. Remember,
- 55:25Speaker 1: we won the tactical war in Vietnam. Every time I
- 55:29Speaker 1: make the joke about mac V Tehran, the joke is
- 55:32Speaker 1: that it's called Military Assistance Command Vietnam, and this what
- 55:35Speaker 1: they would do in the Vietnam Wars. Today, we killed
- 55:38Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty VC in the firm and we
- 55:41Speaker 1: dropped X amount of bombs, the same amount of bombs
- 55:44Speaker 1: that we dropped on Dresden some twenty years ago in America.
- 55:47Speaker 1: Was like wow, yeah, like we killed two hundred and fifty.
- 55:49Speaker 1: Statistics were all fake, but the point was like did
- 55:52Speaker 1: it work? No, I mean, we ended up losing the
- 55:54Speaker 1: war in Vietnam. We dropped x amount of munitions in
- 55:57Speaker 1: Operation Rolling Thunder than the tire Second World War, and
- 56:02Speaker 1: everyone was like wow, like, look at us taking the
- 56:04Speaker 1: fight to North Vietnam and the North Vietnam ameers were like,
- 56:07Speaker 1: we don't care. We'll take a million casualties and we're
- 56:09Speaker 1: just gonna keep fighting. They're like, this is a war
- 56:11Speaker 1: of colonialism to the death, and whatever it takes, no
- 56:15Speaker 1: matter what, we will outlast you until our you know,
- 56:18Speaker 1: their leader literally died and they kept the war going forever.
- 56:21Speaker 1: They won that war. That's all you have to do. Survive, survive,
- 56:25Speaker 1: and ultimately that's how you're able to beat you know,
- 56:28Speaker 1: the same with Afghanistan, not just US Soviet Union. How
- 56:32Speaker 1: did the Soviet Union, I wouldn't say it broke their back,
- 56:34Speaker 1: but it really hurt them with their ten year long engagement.
- 56:37Speaker 1: They blew the shit out of that country. And you know,
- 56:40Speaker 1: if you think Israel is unrestrained, the Soviets fought that
- 56:43Speaker 1: way in Afghanistan. They didn't care at all. They murdered
- 56:46Speaker 1: women and children, bombing campaigns, helicopter d brutal, brutal stuff.
- 56:51Speaker 1: They still lost, right, and that was just the Taliban,
- 56:53Speaker 1: that was just generic Moujahadeen funded by the United States.
- 56:57Speaker 1: So you can see the storybook, you know, for all
- 56:59Speaker 1: of this over the years, which is why for them.
- 57:02Speaker 1: That's another thing, why do we not give credit to
- 57:05Speaker 1: our enemies, like we look at them as barbarian you know, idiots,
- 57:10Speaker 1: or say in one of the you know, like all
- 57:11Speaker 1: the stuff I grew up in the mid two thousands
- 57:13Speaker 1: hearing about these people. The current Iyatola, he speaks fluent English.
- 57:17Speaker 1: If you're wondering, do you hear that guy too? These
- 57:19Speaker 1: people are very well educated. They're not, you know, stupid.
- 57:22Speaker 1: They've studied us for a long time. Forty seven years
- 57:26Speaker 1: that we're always talking about, Well that's forty seven years
- 57:28Speaker 1: of us studying them in forty seven years of them
- 57:30Speaker 1: studying us. These are highly educated people who have thought
- 57:33Speaker 1: a lot about their collective defense. Now listen, I'm not
- 57:36Speaker 1: going to defend every decision they make. I think they
- 57:38Speaker 1: made a lot of screw ups along the way, but
- 57:40Speaker 1: we are where we are. Like, you have to respect
- 57:42Speaker 1: your enemy and the people who you are fighting.
- 57:44Speaker 3: Yea.
- 57:45Speaker 1: And it is very clear after only ten days that
- 57:47Speaker 1: this has not gone the way that we thought it would,
- 57:49Speaker 1: and that they have operated not just militarily but strategically.
- 57:54Speaker 1: Their you know, their ability to draw the whole region
- 57:57Speaker 1: into a conflict, to plunge into global chaos was exactly
- 58:01Speaker 1: what you would do if you're trying to fight asymmetric war.
- 58:03Speaker 1: Even the drone program. You have to give credit where
- 58:06Speaker 1: it's due. They studied the environment, and they go, Okay,
- 58:09Speaker 1: we don't have a lot of money. What's there, you know,
- 58:11Speaker 1: critical Where can we strike them in an asymmetric fashion?
- 58:14Speaker 1: Billion dollar bad system. Ah, We'll create these drones and
- 58:18Speaker 1: they will battle test them in Ukraine with our Russian friends,
- 58:21Speaker 1: and we'll get years and years of targeting data and
- 58:23Speaker 1: see how they can get shot down and refine the
- 58:26Speaker 1: process and all that. I mean, that's a smart military strategy.
- 58:29Speaker 1: That's what you do when you're expecting a conflict with
- 58:32Speaker 1: the West. And obviously that has been the number one
- 58:34Speaker 1: problem that we face now on the battlefield. So you
- 58:37Speaker 1: have to respect these people because if you don't, you're
- 58:39Speaker 1: going to fall into some propaganda you know, effort or whatever,
- 58:43Speaker 1: and that's how you end up with tons of casualties.
- 58:46Speaker 2: Well, and I do want to emphasize the military top
- 58:48Speaker 2: brass new that this would be a problem, right, They
- 58:52Speaker 2: understood that there were incredible vulnerabilities here for the US.
- 58:56Speaker 2: They at least had some sense, seemingly. I mean they,
- 58:59Speaker 2: you know, were leaking to a number of newspapers exactly
- 59:03Speaker 2: some of the problems that we have in fact encounter.
- 59:06Speaker 2: But I think you know, because you have Trump who
- 59:08Speaker 2: has this messianic view of himself and who feels like, oh,
- 59:12Speaker 2: all the experts told me that I couldn't do X
- 59:14Speaker 2: and Y and Z, and I did it anyway, and
- 59:16Speaker 2: I was proven right.
- 59:18Speaker 3: He just was not.
- 59:19Speaker 2: He did not want to hear it, and he wouldn't
- 59:21Speaker 2: hear it. He thought, oh, well, you know, I had
- 59:24Speaker 2: all these people warning that it would be a disaster
- 59:26Speaker 2: in Venezuela, and it went so well. And all these
- 59:28Speaker 2: people warning, all these Panicans warning before the Twelve Day
- 59:32Speaker 2: War in Iran, and look at what a glorious success
- 59:34Speaker 2: that was and how I got to have my mission
- 59:36Speaker 2: accomplished moment. So I'm just going to go back in.
- 59:38Speaker 2: And by the way, my friend BB is telling me
- 59:40Speaker 2: that this is going to go great. So we're going
- 59:42Speaker 2: to do it all over again. And I think to
- 59:44Speaker 2: your point, you know, the internal view of the Iranians
- 59:48Speaker 2: is that they are not stupid, that they are you know,
- 59:51Speaker 2: an adversary that is capable of larning and strategic thought, etc.
- 59:55Speaker 2: What is sold to the American people is that they're
- 59:57Speaker 2: just crazy, you know, theocratic mad men, and so they're
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: it's totally irrational and you can't deal with them, and
- 1:00:05Speaker 2: I think Trump, because he's a stupid and uneducated person,
- 1:00:08Speaker 2: basically bought the public story about what the Iranian government was.
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: And again I'm sure is being fed that by Lindsay
- 1:00:14Speaker 2: Graham and by bb Net, Nahoo, et cetera. And so
- 1:00:17Speaker 2: he comes in like a bowl in a china shop
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: and now has found himself in a trap that he
- 1:00:22Speaker 2: cannot figure out how to get out of. And you know,
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: one of I think the probably tactical mistakes from the
- 1:00:27Speaker 2: Americans and the Israelis was assassinating the Iatola.
- 1:00:31Speaker 3: We could put C two up on the screen.
- 1:00:33Speaker 2: There were gigantic celebrations in the street in Tehran celebrating
- 1:00:38Speaker 2: the you know, the naming of the new Ayatola, of course,
- 1:00:41Speaker 2: the son of the previous Ayatola. And so quite contrary
- 1:00:46Speaker 2: to the idea that there was going to be some
- 1:00:48Speaker 2: uprising against the government and that this government would fall,
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: in fact you've had the predictable opposite impact, which is
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: a hardening of nationalists sentiment. Now that doesn't mean there
- 1:01:00Speaker 2: aren't still plenty of people in Iran who are not
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: happy with the you know, Islamic theocratic regime, who would
- 1:01:07Speaker 2: like ultimately some sort of different form of government. But
- 1:01:10Speaker 2: right now you and your family and your country are
- 1:01:14Speaker 2: under attack. Of course there's going to be a rally
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: around the flag effect. Of course that is going to happen.
- 1:01:19Speaker 2: And that's much more of what we're seeing, at least
- 1:01:22Speaker 2: manifesting visibly in the streets is a hardening and a
- 1:01:25Speaker 2: support for the existing government. Trump floated, Hey, maybe, you know,
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: maybe we'll assassinate this new guy as well. You know,
- 1:01:33Speaker 2: if he doesn't play ball with us, which of course
- 1:01:35Speaker 2: he's not going to, they could well do that. They
- 1:01:37Speaker 2: could well accomplish that. You think that that's going to
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: be the end of the you know, this particular Iranian regime.
- 1:01:44Speaker 3: No, of course not. They would just appoint a new one.
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: And you know, you know this is the case because
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: you see how they operated with Hamas, the number of
- 1:01:51Speaker 2: times that they killed, you know, all the senior leadership,
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: whether they were political leadership or military leadership.
- 1:01:56Speaker 3: Did that destroy Hamas?
- 1:01:58Speaker 2: No, and the Iranians are much better funded and are
- 1:02:02Speaker 2: much more sort of deeply entrenched frankly than Hamas's. You
- 1:02:05Speaker 2: can see with Hesbula as well, they thought Hesbela was
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: dead and gone. I think the Israeli public thought basically
- 1:02:09Speaker 2: HESBUL after the whole deeper attack.
- 1:02:11Speaker 3: That that was it, end of story.
- 1:02:13Speaker 2: Heswell is able to fight back against the Israeli incursion
- 1:02:16Speaker 2: into Lebanon right now, and the Israelis the IDF on
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: the ground are sustaining some significant blows at the hands
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: of HESBLA right now. So were they set back? Absolutely?
- 1:02:26Speaker 2: Was there a time period were they're extremely weakened?
- 1:02:28Speaker 3: Absolutely? Are they as strong as they were before? Probably not.
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: Are they still able to exist as as a coherent
- 1:02:33Speaker 2: organization and strike some blows against you?
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: Yeah?
- 1:02:36Speaker 2: Absolutely, And the Iranians are much better equipped to sustain
- 1:02:39Speaker 2: these blows than either of those organizations.
- 1:02:42Speaker 1: That's all very very true. Last thing I think C
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: four let's put this up there on the screen from
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: drop site, they spoke with Iranian officials, senior official there
- 1:02:52Speaker 1: saying it is unlikely Iran would accept any temporary deal
- 1:02:55Speaker 1: that leaves open the possibility that another war could be
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: launched in the near future. Iran will not accept any
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: ceasefire at this stage because what is pursuing is not
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: a mere end to hostilities, which canon will be easily
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: broken by Israel in the US, but it determs restoring
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: outcome that creates the conditions for lasting, enforceable settlement. The
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: strategic logic is it holding out now despite the cost,
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: is the precondition for an agreement that actually holds. So look,
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: I mean we box them in to a single corner,
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: and when you do that, you can't You just have
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: to sit there and take the pain for as long
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: as possible and hope that the other side gives out.
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: And I don't think it's coming.
- 1:03:30Speaker 2: And they want to give us a taste of our
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: own medicine in terms of the economic warfare that we've
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: been waging against them for decades. They know that they
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: have control over this incredibly important strategic choke point. Now
- 1:03:42Speaker 2: this is going to be very damaging to their economy
- 1:03:45Speaker 2: as well, but again for them, it's ex istential. For us,
- 1:03:48Speaker 2: we don't even want to be doing this. So yeah,
- 1:03:50Speaker 2: they're like, look, two hundred dollars a barrel or well
- 1:03:53Speaker 2: you want that, Let's keep going, keep doing it, Let's
- 1:03:55Speaker 2: continue in this direction because we are going to make
- 1:03:58Speaker 2: you pay.
- 1:03:58Speaker 3: And I just will you know, remind that we.
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: Played earlier that side of a professor who has some
- 1:04:07Speaker 2: contacts within the Iranian government, who was based in Tehran,
- 1:04:10Speaker 2: saying we want to be in this at least until
- 1:04:13Speaker 2: the mid terms. They want there to be an economic price,
- 1:04:16Speaker 2: devastating economic price. But all of us, by the way,
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: all of you out there are going to pay, and
- 1:04:21Speaker 2: the entire world, frankly is going to pay. They want
- 1:04:23Speaker 2: there to be a devastating economic price and a devastating
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: political price for this president and his party.
- 1:04:30Speaker 3: So that's what they're committed to.
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
- 1:04:33Speaker 4: All right.
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: Let's get to Brandon Wiker. He's a great military analyst,
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: break down everything that's happening with Iran. Let's get to it.