Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Forget Recession | This is the Next Great Depression + Stock Market News 07 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Forget Recession | This is the Next Great Depression + Stock Market News 07 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this Monday morning, and I'm speaking in a soft voice because I appreciate some of yours.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Your emotions and nerves are a little tried and tested.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Today, markets are down yet again.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to sugarcoat it.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Instead, what I want to do is help you understand it.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Help you understand the risk, but also the opportunities, because there are opportunities.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: There always are.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Give you an idea of how low this can go.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: We're joined by by winston, purely for his therapeutic effects.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: So if you need a bit of therapy, we'll do some q a.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you and I'll run you through everything that I want to share with you and teach you here today, and my attention is always.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: When I used to work at a bank, we had a 6, 7 am morning meeting Hated the bloody things because he wants to get up at 6 in the morning.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It's dark.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: It's just against human nature, I think, to get up in the dark, and somebody who was wiser and more experienced would walk us through everything that happened and it would set us up for a really great day.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: It allowed us to make better decisions.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: It meant we were not caught out by what was going on out there, because we'd already had it explained to us.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So that's really my goal.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: It's like make you the best informed investor out there, teach you some rules and some systems and some safety along the way.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So what we're going to run through here is this Is this the largest crash ever?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: And Winston can join us for this bit?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: There is a rumor of an emergency Fed meeting.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I see it all over Twitter.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I want to explain that to you what that's all about.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Are we actually going to get a rate cut?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Is the Fed going to bail us out this time?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: And why is Wall Street now suddenly expecting a recession?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: And what happens if today is as ugly as Thursday and Friday was right?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: What actually comes next?
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Because I think that's really what you're wondering about, and I'll tell you what I'm buying today and I'll give you a warning and I don't think you quite know what that is, but I'll explain that to you because that's really quite important.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: We're going to do a chart review Once the market is open here in 28 minutes on the usual popular stocks Palantir, sofa, nvidia, tesla, archer and all your favorite tickers.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Just shout them out there when we get to that, and then we'll do a big Q&A just to get everybody's nerves down a little bit.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Get everybody better informed.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Make sure you leave us here today in about half an hour or so with a smile on your face.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: That's really the goal, right?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Winston's job, obviously, is mostly that part.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: He's very, very good at that.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: So does that sound like something that will be of high value to you?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Then write value in the chat and that way I know this is something that you guys value.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: And let me walk you through it.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Someone's saying depression, seriously, it's seriously.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: From Oxford.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I'll show you the resources.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not making this up, I'm not trying to create fear here.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Quite the opposite.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So the question is is this the largest crash ever?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Some of the headlines are saying that, well, hong kong stocks I'm in hong kong right now are down 13.7 percent of chinese stocks.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: That's the worst day since 1989 pretty, pretty long time, right.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Some people also saying the worst since 1997.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, both, I think both.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So lots of value there.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, uh, valve, that'll also do.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Good morning winston.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Um, he's, he's here, he's, he's happy, he's snoozing.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: We just played very nicely in the park and I said come on, let's go inside, and he snatched the ball and ran away.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Um, okay, so today could be the third three bankers and counting third straight day where the S&P falls more than 4% in a row.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: That has only ever happened one other time.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: It was during the Great Depression kicked off in 1929.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to create fear, I'm just putting it into some perspective here.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Right, Let me show you the futures.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: This morning the S&P is down 2%, the Nasdaq down 2%.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: That's an improvement.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: By the way, we were in that 4% territory a couple of hours back.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: The Russell's down 2.5%.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Japanese European stocks, german stocks the German stocks are down 4.7%.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: The fear index is up over 4%.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Pretty much everything is down, unless you're heavily invested in soybean meal, which I think is probably not that many of you.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So is that likely?
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: It's possible.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: It's possible and we walk through it.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: And what happened after the Great Depression?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you that as well.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: But let me show you one other data point first.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: This is from Goldman Sachs.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: They're saying the amount of short selling in just their macro-led products essentially was the largest on our record.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So this is where we are with selling.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: This is the most selling they've seen.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Well, their data starts in 2015.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So it's not that long appearing, but it's 10 years.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing very, very, very serious selling likely because of margin calls, I think go up fairly rapidly.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So it wasn't like it was over forever.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It's just the people who got margin calls, and that was a lot of people obviously lost everything because they had margin.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: We touched upon that in a moment as well.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Now I want to explain this.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: This is actually really important.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: There is a rumor that there is an emergency Fed meeting being held, a closed board meeting, say the Muppets who run that particular X account?
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: The Fed holds closed board meetings pretty much every week, completely standard, nothing unusual about it.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: And no, this is not an emergency Fed meeting.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: This is just a regular Fed meeting that happens behind closed doors, which they do all the freaking time, basically every week.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: They publish them.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: You can look on their website.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: They do all the freaking time, basically every week.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: They publish them.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: You can look on their website.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: So be careful these days who you're taking information from, because people put this stuff out they don't know what they're talking about or they just want to create some more clicks or whatever it is.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: So look to the substance and be a little careful who you're listening to.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying they're putting this out maliciously.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Probably the guy who runs a Twitter account is a 16-year-old somewhere and doesn't know what the heck he's talking about, but it could cause some confusion to people.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: But are we actually going to get a rate cut?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Well, yeah, so we were expecting like two or three rate cuts.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Now the market is expecting five cups in 2025.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Well, every single rate cut, so one cut, should increase stock prices, especially in the more sort of growth-y tech side of life.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I know many of you are invested by about 2.5% on stocks.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Right, so you got five.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: You do the maths.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: You should, in theory, get a nice 12.5% bounce in stock prices.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: No, it's not a completely linear thing, but it's generally the way the gist is, so that's a good thing, right?
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So why the heck are markets not rallying then?
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Right, well, it's for the following reasons, and I don't use the R word lightly, but Goldman Sachs do.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: The smartest bankers out there, according to Goldman Sachs, and they're saying that the countdown according to the countdown to recession this was their note from.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: This was from yesterday, yeah, their Sunday note.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: And they're saying we're lowering our GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: We're raising our recession probability to 45, sharp tightening of financial conditions.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: The us tariff high will add um, yeah, basically that.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So if most of that april 9th tariffs do take effect, then the effective tariff rate will rise by 20 percentage points once it increases a likely sector.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: So basically, what they're saying is on the 9th right, which is Wednesday.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So just be really clear about this Wednesday the 9th is when the main tariffs kick in.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: So we've had the 10% kick in automatically when it was announced last week.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: On the 9th, all the other stuff kicks in.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So if you're a country and you get like a 50% tariff rate, you get an extra 40% on the 9th.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of people who are high on the hopium that Trump is bluffing and he's going to delay that or he's going to negotiate between now and the 9th.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Now explain to me how you can come to an agreement with like 50 countries in the space of two days.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I think that's pretty hard right, because those other countries are not run by Trump.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: If it was Trump versus Trump, he'd probably come to an agreement, right, and he'd say it would be the most beautiful agreement that anybody's ever reached.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: But you're negotiating with the European Union, which in itself is like 27 countries.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: You can't, you know, agree on what day of the week to meet or what font to use for the document.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: So that's what you're dealing with.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So this is going to take a while.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Most trade deals take 10 years, yeah.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: So what are you going to achieve in two days?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I think not a lot.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So my opinion and you can disagree with me, obviously on this and this whole thing, oh you know, is he pro against Trump thing?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I'm getting literally same video out yesterday and half the people were saying you're pro Trump, I hate you.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And the other half was saying you don't understand Trump, trump's right.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: You know, you're an idiot and I'm like brilliant People think I'm both.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: You know for and against.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Neither really, I don't get to vote in the US.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not a US citizen.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I'm a teeny, tiny US taxpayer in sort of the scale of things.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: So not really my business.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: I just have to take the facts that I see Negotiates well, he bluffs, he bullies.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: He's very effective, very effective at that.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: He gets very good outcomes when he negotiates for himself.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So I don't think he's going to take this off the table because this is his negotiating tactic.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: He wants those countries to feel the pain so they come to the table.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: If he just says, oh yeah, let's just push it back a month, I don't think that's going to happen.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: That would be my opinion.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Right, I think it's going to happen.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: It might happen.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: If it happens, we get a little bounce and take advantage of that bounce to de-risk.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: That's what I would say.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Take some stuff off the cooker because it won't be over, because people won't come to the table quickly enough and they won't agree on what he actually wants.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Because once you understand what this is really about, this is not about people thought and I thought this was about equal tariffs.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: So, say you are, say you're Vietnam, right, lovely country, amazing, beautiful people, and at the moment you know, allegedly you have a 40% tariff on the US.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So the US comes in, puts also a 40% tariff on you or whatever it is, and everybody is like, okay, well, why doesn't Vietnam go to zero?
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: And then the US goes to zero and then trade continues as before, actually maybe better.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: But what does Vietnam make and sell to the US?
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Well, garments and white goods and that kind of thing.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: They've taken on quite a lot of the sort of industrial base, manufacturing base that used to be in China and they've moved it to Vietnam.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: And what does the US sell to Vietnam?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Probably not a lot, right?
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: So Trump does not want them to have zero tariffs.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: He wants to get rid of the trade surplus.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: So he wants Vietnam to buy the equivalent value of goods that the US consumer is buying from Vietnam.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Now you guys buy a lot of Nike trainers and a lot of, you know, polo shirts, that sort of thing.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Vietnam doesn't.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: It's not that wealthy a country that they can buy all that stuff from you guys.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: So it isn't really going to happen and therefore likely the terrorists will stay in place.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: At least if you follow that logic right, you're seeing.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: And then, yeah, the penguins also.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Yes, of course, the penguins.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Have you seen that?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: They're penguins?
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: There's some great memes on that.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a moment.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: So, all right.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So what if today is really ugly, right?
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: What if we get that fourth, that third minus 4%?
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: At the moment it looks a little bit better, but who knows?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Literallymber 1929, september 1932, is the last time we had that.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: And then july 1933, that happened.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: What happened?
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Like, say, three weeks later you were up 10 to 27 percent.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Might have been a good time to get out on the bounce and that's literally what I was talking about this morning uh, with a, with one of my mentors is exactly that we're going to want to de-risk on the way up because there'll be some faux bounces before the whole thing is over.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: At least that's my view on that.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: But it also gives you some hope, right?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Nothing goes down in a straight line.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: You get plenty of warnings.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: You watch me, I'll highlight the warnings to you.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: So what am I buying?
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, first of all, if you want to buy anything at all today or this week or next week or this month, because you want to buy the dip right, btfd, then you need to understand the rules, and the first rule would be avoid the falling knives, because they just go lower.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: For example, I've been talking about AMD now for what?
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Five, six months?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: And I keep telling people it's too early, guys, it's a good company, it's great management, but it's too early.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Don't do it.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: And it's obviously fallen loads since.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: The second thing is stop missing out.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Stop missing out on the great opportunities that there are there every day, every week.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Now come to what the opportunities are today in just a second.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: And then, thirdly and clearly, most importantly right now, it is protect your portfolio, because the number one job of any investor out there is to protect your money.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: And I know that's kind of probably hitting home and maybe you know chest pains and blurred vision and you know whatever you're experiencing right now, and that is normal if you are an emotional investor.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: And what I want to help you get to is become a rules-based investor where you know what's coming, where you understand what a pattern is, because it's always the same bloody pattern.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: It's so predictable.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: And once you understand that, you look at this in a lot more of a calm way, the emotions go out of the window and you're able to make better decisions.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: You're able to automate the thing.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: It takes you less time and you get a better outcome.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: That's really the goal.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: So how do you learn that?
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Uh, there's a 15 minute master class I put together, like all the key rules that I used that I've been using.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: That helped me get from literally corporate salary slave to to being retired in my early 40s and and, and now I get to do this, which is super fun um, because I thought, well, what am I going to do with my life?
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: And um, you know, I mentioned in a video, I think, on on friday.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I my, I'm very happy that you know my, my offsprings will never have to work.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: And some, some of you are writing oh, that's terrible.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I never want to meet somebody who doesn't have to work.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: There must be horrible, horrible people.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: And I kind of thought we've all been brainwashed so much by the rich that we think we need to work for 40 years to have a fulfilled life.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: It's total bollocks.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But I'm not saying you shouldn't do anything.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I think you've got to do something to get fulfillment and to get like satisfaction.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: And so I've chosen to teach because it's very, really fulfilling.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: It's the funnest and the most rewarding and satisfying thing I've ever done.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: So I love sharing this with you guys and hopefully getting some value out of this.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: If you're getting some value out of this, put a V in the chat for value, and I know that this is helping you.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: So the link's down below phoenixfriendsorg slash get free.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I'll put the link in the chat as well and I'll pin that for you so you can.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: You can check that out.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: And and who's going to go learn?
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Who's going to go learn?
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Are you going to go learn?
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: If you're going to learn.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: Put a put an l in the chat, not for loser but for learner, because that's the best thing you could possibly be doing.