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9/11 & Iran War; Oil; Taiwan; WA Taxes; Private Credit; Welfare Fraud; Housing | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: A lot of the fundamental principles of widow of interesting
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: and individual ones. This is show. Oh right, everybody, welcome
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: to your own book show on this Wednesday, manch eleventh.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Everybody is is doing well and uh yep, so uh
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I'll continue updating you on on the one you want. Today,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: we'll cover a few more stories. I want to bring
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: in kind of a broader perspective on all of this.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Uh So we'll talk about kind of UH nine to
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: eleven and how that has played into where we are today,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: and and and and the attitudes towards the war as
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: a consequence of of U A coor the war war
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: and the inability of people to perceive or even imagine
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: victory in a war given what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. First,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: just a pretty stunning story out of California. The FBI
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: has issued a warning to law enforcement agencies in California
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: stating that they have recently recent intelligence that indicates that
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Iran is allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: of the United States, specifically against unspecified targets in California.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: So somewhere, somewhere, buddy in the FBI discovered something where
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the Iranians, somebody unspecified has said that an unspecified boat
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: will send unspecified drones to an unspecified location in California.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So not much there, not much to go on, but
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: but yeah, it does give you one a sense that
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: it could be done. I mean, in the sky's fishing boat,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: any kind of other boat could could I guess, across
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the Pacific and and and go off the show of
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: California and launch a drone from you know, a couple
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: of hundred miles away and uh in attack California. I
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: get a sense that if that happened, Americans would rally
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: around this war a little bit more. So you know,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: maybe it would be good, but but I doubt it.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And and plus you know, I have too many, too
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: many friends, loved ones, people that care about in California
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: that I don't want to see huts. So I hope,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I hope this is all. This is all a hoax
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: or unreal, or the Ranians have changed their mind or whatever,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: or the boats sunk, whatever happened. Hopefully no drones are
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: going to hit California. But it is it does tell you.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's possible. It's true. None of the ballistic
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: missiles the Ranians have could hit to hit the United States,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: and none of their drones can travel the distance of
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the United States. But they're so easy to launch that
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: you could you could really imagine that on a small
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: boat they could they could attack the United States, the
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: homeland of the United States. But this sounds pretty unspecific,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: except for the California part. Except for the California part. Now,
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: it would be nice if we knew exactly why in
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: California was going to happen as well. But given everything
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: else is unspecific, I guess I'm not surprised that that
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: is not there. So yeah, I mean, the war continues,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: the daily bombing runs of targets in Iran continue. Chrismala
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: this evening actually has significantly intensified. They rocket attacks against
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Israel and in something that is I would say surprising.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: It looks like he was coordinated with the Iranians. So
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: most accounts out of Israel were, you know, we've cut
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the communication between Isbela and Iran. Hisbela is isolated. Well, no,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: they haven't. It seems like the attack this evening was coordinated.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I actually spoke to my dad about I don't know,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: forty minutes ago, and he was in the very shelter.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Sirens were going off. I could hear them in the background,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: and he and my mom and their cagivers for people
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: in this tiny little room which serves as their is
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: shelter in their apartment in Haifai, in the North Israel,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: facing the you know, facing Lebanon, so they face you
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: can actually on a clear day you can see Lebanon
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: from their apartment. But anyway, it turns out that not
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: only had Yuan launched you know a small number of
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: ballistic missiles towards the north of Israel, Chris Bala launched
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: about one hundred different types of short range missiles into
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: the north of Israel and the Iron Dome. Israeli a
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: defense system for their kind of short range missiles was
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: intensely at work. I assume the new laser defense system
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: was working as well, although there's very little verification of
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the Israel there's no official word about how extensively Israel
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: is using that. But yeah, one hundred projectiles out of
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the in Lebanon. I think that if Israel was hesitating
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: about whether to expand a warn lebl and in if
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Israel was hesitating about whether to this, this was it
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: whether to go into Lebanon and completely dismantle Risabella. I
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: think this latest Burrad just tilted that clearly in favor
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: of this needs to be it. Whatever happens the one
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: you're on, the war in Lebanon will continue until should continue.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I hope it continues, and I think Israel is now
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: dedicated to it continuing until Isabella has finished. Until basically
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Israel can hand over whatever's remnants of Risbela to the
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Lebanese government, and the Lebanese government will be strong enough,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: given how weak Isabella will be, to take them over.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: Now we will see whether that happens, but I expect
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a significant grounding cosion into Lebanon tonight or tomorrow with
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: you know, the troops have been called off from the
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: south to participate in that grounding coach. So the number
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: of troops on the northern border has increased significantly as
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Israel prepares for a massive encosion into South Lebanon. As
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I've said since October seventh, Israel needs to occupy Lebanon
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: up until the Litani River. If the Lebanese government cannot
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: handle Isabela. If the Lebanese government cannot secure its southern
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: border with Israel, then that leaves no option but for
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Israel to do it for the Lebanese government, and that
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: means Israel needs to take the entire southern Lebanon at
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: least for now, and occupy the entire territory. They're already
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you know, I asked for the evacuation of most civilians.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Supposely about six hundred thousand at least civilians that are
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: have left their homes in Lebanon, but in most of
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: those are from southern Lebanon. Israel needs to occupy the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: entire place and then system addically slowly and systematically slowly,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: because I think it's going to take slow work dismantle
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Risbella's infrastructure in southern Lebanon. There's very similar infrastructure to
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: what Hamas had. The real threat post October seventh from
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Grisbelie in the north is something like what Ramas did
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: in the south. Just a massive invasion into Israel, just
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: overwhelming quick slaughter, rape, torture, you know, just of Israeli
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: civilians in the in the northern border. Uh and Israel
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: cannot allow that ever to happen again, and I think
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: as part of that, Israel's going to have to create
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: a buffer zone at the beginning. To start that off,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: they need to take the entire southern part of Lebanon
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: again up until the tiny River, and Israeli forces might
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: have to go further north to again dismantle the rest
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: of Risbella's infrastructure. As long as the Lebanese army won't
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: do it, Israel has to do it. And you know,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping the Trump administration lets them, leaves them alone,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: but you know, lets them actually engage in it. But yes,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I think the this cantgage of rocket fire one hundred,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: which is the most they've done this this this particular war.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: They did a lot more during the Gauza War, but
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: now this is the largest. You know. Basically, it means
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Israel has, I think, no choice but to act and
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: UH and I expect I expect they will eminently. I think,
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: I think, if not tonight, then tomorrow night or tomorrow
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: during the day, I expect the invasion to go forward
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: and into into southern Lebanon. At the same time the
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: air force is attacking, of course, UH launchers from where
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: these rockets were fired. They're attacking strategic locations of Risbela,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: all of Lebanon, and all at the same time as
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: doing what they're doing in Iran at the same time.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So Israel's gotta Whereas the United States has a one
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: front wall, Israel has a two front wall. It's it's
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: pilots unbelievably busy. And I think moving now, moving now forward,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: you're going to see ground troops as well, boots on
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the ground. There will be boots on the ground Israelly,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: boots on the ground in Lebanon, and you know, and
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe maybe they will be uh, boots in the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: ground in Iran. We'll see. I think, I think you're
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: not going to be able to win this war. You're
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: not gonna be able to get resolution in Iran without
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: boots on the ground in Iran, not massive troops, but
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: at least special forces troops on the ground. And you know,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about that, we'll talk about that a little
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: bit later. But really there's this massive resistance. Every time
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: somebody says boots on the ground, there's almost this h
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: immediate convulsion within the within the American public and intellectuals
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: and the press and everybody. No no, no, we can't
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: do butts on the ground. Remember I rock, Remember if Ghanistan,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: and there's no question you walk in af Ghanistan. Such
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: extensive failures were such disasters over the long run that
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: the appetite for actually engaging in a war that might
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: lead to victory is gone, you know, after nine eleven.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: After nine to eleven, I and many others in the
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Objectives movement at least Leanna peakoff primarily, but the Institute
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: argued that the real target should not be Iraq. The
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: real target was Iran. And we were told at the time, no, no, no,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: UoN powerful, very very strong. You could never take Iran.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, Iraq okay, but Ian no, I wrok. Everybody
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: kind of depreciated their ability to fight because in the
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: First Gulf War in nineteen ninety one, the the you know,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the United States just ran them over. I mean, there
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: was no contest. And I argued that if Iraq is weak,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Iran is probably weaker, or at least as weak. At
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the time, there was zero reason to assume that Iran
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: was strong. I mean, and what we're seeing right now
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: is how weak Iran is now. And it was much
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: much weak. Go back then, you didn't have anywhere near
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the kind of ballistic missiles, the drones, all these technologies
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: didn't exist. They just had a regular army. And remember,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the Iranian army fought a bloody, horrific eight year war
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: with the with the Iranian army for eight year war
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: with the Iraqi army to astell me. So it's not
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: the Ranians were so powerful they overran the Iraqis. No,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the Iranians were up matched to the Ruckis. Both armies,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: unbelievably being competent. Both armies lost. Iran lost hundreds of
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: thousands of troops, including a lot of children, which they
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: sent it to battle in suicide missions Indy. To this day,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: the Iranian regime has a you know venerates this post
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: of this of this child, a kid who wrapped exposives
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: to his body and called under the tank and set
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: them off. You know, it's the ultimate sacrifice for the
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: sake of jihad, for the sake of Iran, for the
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: sake of you know, the you know, Islamism. That is,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: by the way, who we're dealing with, you, we're dealing
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: with the barbaric regime. Anyway, after nine to eleven, they
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: could have gone to Iran, and they didn't. And the
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: reason they didn't and the reason the Holy Rock War
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: became a catastrophe. I mean everything after nine to eleven
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: really was a catastrophe is because they wouldn't identify who
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the enemy actually was. They refused to make the argument
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: that Islam was the enemy, that Islamism was the enemy.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: You know, that would make it a religious one. Indeed,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: the opposite. George Bush told us, told us that Islam
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: was a religion of peace that had been hijacked by
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: a small minority of people happened to be members of
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: al Qaida. I mean, the damage George Bush did to
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: this country is really it's hard to imagine. I mean,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: I think again, we saw it at the time at
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: the Institute, and we warned against this. Right. He taught
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Americans you can't win wars because of the way he
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: fought them, tying the military's hands behind their backs, restricting
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: their target lists, you know, not having a real plan
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: for wanting regime change, but not having a real plan
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: for what regime would look after the fact. Going to
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Afghanistan but again not really having a plan, not really
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: knowing what to do, not having a mechanism. I wish
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: to defeat the Taliban if that was the goal. So
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: what George Rush has done is he is basically convinced
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: American people that America cannot win wars and it is weak.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: As a consequence, we believe that i Wan is much
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: stronger than it is, that America is much weaker than
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: it is. I mean, there's also altruism that plays into that, right,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, altruism will tell you that evil is strong.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Evil is strong. Why is evil strong and the good
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: is weak? Because the good, The good, according to autuism,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: is the sacrificial. The good is those who are willing
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: to sacrifice for others. That is my definition weak. Evil
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: is that which is willing to sacrifice others to self,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: that which is willing to do anything to win. They
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: are strong. We should be afraid of evil when the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: reality is evil is impotent, and particularly evil is impotent
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: in the face of the strong. Now it is true
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: that you know, Korea and Vietnam did not help this
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: attitude of American can't win was but there was a
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: chance after nine to eleven, and we were attacked in
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: the entire American people, not like Vietnam. For example, American
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: people overwhelmingly supported. It wore self defense after nine to eleven,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and relevant to today, it was in the Middle East,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: and relevant to today, the real enemy not the enemy
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: we actually fought, but the real enemy was Islam well Islamists, Islamists.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: So the impact of Iraq and Afghanistan is much much,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: much greater with regard to the attitude towards today, particularly
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: in the Middle East, than Vietnam and Korea. Plus, it's
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the generational thing. Everybody remembers you rock in Afghanistan, they've
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: already forgotten. And remember in two thousand and one, after
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: nine to eleven, the American people rallied around Bush. He
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: could have done pretty much anything. His approval rating, not
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: like Donald Trump, Who's approven rating are very very low.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Bush's approval rating night after nine to eleven in the
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: eighty plus percent. He could have done anything. What he
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: chose to do is to lose. What he chose was
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to lose was to fight an altruistic war in the
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: wrong place for the wrong reasons, with the wrong outcome,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: and the consequence of that was not winning. And indeed,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: I think today the attitude generally is victory is impossible,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: can't win. We can degrade. Can do certain things, we
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: can upset, we can achieve certain aims. We can't win though.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Victory is impossible, partially because we don't even know how.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I mean. Imagine if Trumpets said, you know, I'm not
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: stopping this until there's regime change in Iran, and not
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: just any regime change. I want to free you on
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: because that is the only way I know America will
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: be secure. Not because I'm sacrificing American troops to liberate Ranians,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: but because the only way to make America secure California,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: for example, is to change fundamentally, change the regime in
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Iran from where it is today to a free country.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Free countries don't attack other free countries generally. Imagine a
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: president saying that, and we will bomb them. We will
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: do what is necessary to bring about that outcome. But
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: there's no such attitude. Don't know, real long term victory
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: is possible without that attitude, because you know, the regime
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: and Yuan are not Venezuela, They're not just thugs. By
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the way, good up ed today by Ben Bear and
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Ilan Juno in the Art County Register. You can find
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: it online about the religious nature of the Iranian Iranian regime.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: And and you know why it's different than Venezuela. Venezuela
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: is a thugs. You can get rid of the top
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: thug and cut a deal with the second in command.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Yuan is not thugs. They are ideologues. They are committed ideologues.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: They are religious fanatics. Maybe not everybody, but enough and
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: ny too believe that America is weak. They believe America
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: is weak because America acts week, I mean, Israel bomb
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: the few reserves of the Ranians. America chiese these railings
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: for doing that. Don't do that again. We don't want
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: to hurt the infrastructure. We don't actually bring pain to
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the Ranians. How are you gonna win if you're not
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: willing to bring pain to the enemy population. So, the
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: all the lessons, all the lies of nine to eleven,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: all the lessons that we're taught from that are the
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: bad way in which those wars were fought, which is
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: continuing right now. All of that is impacting what's going
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: on now. And look, Iran, it is much easier than Iraq.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: It's easy in the New York because it has a
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: population that doesn't like the leader. It's easier than New
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: York because it has a population that actually likes the West.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, we could achieve victory by accident here. That is,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: it could turn out that the Iranian people are you know,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: brave enough, courageous enough, and powerful enough to overthrow this
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: regime once we're done with him. And you know, at
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, at the end of this war,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: we will be safer because many of the Ranian capabilities
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: will be destroyed. How many of them, will they take
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: out the nuclear program or not? All of that is
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: to be determined. But we're not We're not fighting for victory.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: We're not fighting for that. It might be an accidental
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: outcome and our leadership at the top, while it's done
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: some good things, right Going to war with you on
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: was a good thing. So I'll give Trump credit for that.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: And here's here's a big one. I'm called gaute today
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: pointed this out and I thought, I mean, I thought this,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: but I guess when he said it, it like really hit.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: One of the great achievements of this war from the
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Trump administration perspective is partnering with Israel in the first
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: go far Jeorge was was senior and massed troops. Remember
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: a coalition, huge coalition of troops along the Kuwait border
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: to kick the Iraqis out of quit in nineteen ninety one,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: and purposely did not invite these releas to participate, even
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: though as Well had the most competent army and so on.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: In addition, when said i'most saying he started firing missiles
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: into Israel at the time this ninety one, and Israel
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: had no way of defense as to missiles were just
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: dropping into Israel. They were smaller than the ballistic missiles today,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: but they were still dropping into Israel, killing people, destroying property.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: Israel was not allowed to retaliate. It was not allowed
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: to fly into Iraq and destroy the missile launches. And indeed,
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: in those days there was fear that saidam Moosselin would
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: use chemical weapons against at Israel. And still Israel was
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: not allowed to defend itself. Everybody who's had had gas
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: masks with them just in case. In two thousand and three,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: two thousand and three, well with Iraq, the United States
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: did not have, I mean the coalition of the willing, Well,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Israel is willing, but not invited, not invited, and again
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: not allowed to defend itself in any kind of way
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: I'll give from credit this war. They've embraced the Israelis.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: They are partners, they are doing this together. They're not
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: shying away. They're not They're not coming to the Arab
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: world being upset that Israel is attacking a Muslim country.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: They you know, they're just it's just a given. And
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: that's a huge achievement. That is a massive achievement, and
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: that's probably maybe the best thing coming out of this war.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: And indeed, I think Israel is much more strategic about
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: this war than the United States is, so to an
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: extent that their strategy, it's coming from the israelis not
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: from the Americans. And this, of course, you know, brings
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: me to the point that I've mentioned a number of
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: times over the previous few days, but it needs to
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: be emphasized, and we set again in spite of the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: success of the American militarich I had no doubt the
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: weakness of the Iranian regime, which I had no doubt.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: It is truly, it's constantly, truly a shock the extent
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: to which the United States was not prepared for key
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: thanks first and foremost the blocking of the Homo straits.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: You know, somebody challenged me the other day and say, oh,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: you think the Pentagon doesn't have a plan. You don't
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: know what you're talking about. You're on you know, of
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: course the Pentagon has a plan. You think you know
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: more than the Pentagon. Da da da da da da da.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Where's the plan? The American Navy has been asked repeatedly,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: pretty much every day since the war began, by particular
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: shipping companies and ships in the Persian Gulf to provide
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: an escort through the Homo Straits, and the Navy has refused,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: not wanting to put the chips in danger. As we know,
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Van started mining the Homo Straits yesterday. We don't know
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: how long it mined, and by some stories they only
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: managed to put out like ten minds, which are not
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: very significant. And then only then did the Trumpet administration
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: or did the efforts to take out the mining boats.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: These are small boats, they can drop two to three
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: minds at a time, and they've taken out on ten
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: twenty of those boats. Why is that an afterthought? Why
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: wasn't that the beginning well Permanentily because the Trumpet deministration
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: did not expect They did not expect ivon to resist.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: They did not expect Iran to block the Homo Straits,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: and therefore they had no plan. They literally had no plan,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: and right now they're winging it. I know, you can't
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: believe it. They're smart people at the Pentagon, and I'm
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: sure the generals had some ideas of what they would
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: like to do, but no plan was approved on how
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: to deal with Homo Straits. The Trumpet administration believed that
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: the war would have no very little impact on oil prices,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: and yet it's had profound impact on what prices. It's
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: truly shocking how badly. You know, from a strategic perspective,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: much of what the United States has done is you know,
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: by the fact that that bombing, that destroying, you know,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: and they can it's a free you know, it's a
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Turkie shoot, right, they can go out there and shoot
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: anything they want. There's no way defense systems. Today, three
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: ships trying to cross the Homo Straits we're hit, including
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: one ship one tie ship off the coast of Oman.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: So the Ranians are serious about mania, are serious about
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: blocking the streets. They've realized, whether they realized this when
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: they or whether it's taking them a few days to
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: realize that they realize that their biggest weapon against the
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: United States, the most powerful weapon against the United States,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: is all prices. If they can get all prices to
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: two hundred, all bets are off, I mean, global recession. Whatever,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: that's what they're aiming for. Yeah. Ivanzy Islamic Republic News
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: agency reported that the Islamic Revolutionary God Corps has attacked a
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: tie flagged bulk carrier in the Straits of Homes for
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: failing to heed their warning not to transit. Now again,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: it's hard to tell how many ships are getting through
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: and how many ships are not. And the was Steed
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Journal had a story saying Uranian ships carrying oil are
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: moving out of the home Wost Strait at a faster
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: rate than they were before the war. And you think
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: to yourself, wait a minute, why is the United States
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: stop that? Why are we letting Iran continue to export
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: oil while Iwan doesn't allow anybody else to export oil.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: That doesn't make any sense or a strategic perspective. Why
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: aren't we stopping the Ranian ships taking oil out of
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: the Homo Straits and forcing them to turn around and
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: go back home. I mean, it's unthinkable that Iran is
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: not benefiting from the spike in all prices because they
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: have the power, whereas we have the mightiest navy in
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: the world right at their doorstep doing what It's truly
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: mind boggling and hit scratching. But this is a consequence
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: of not really thinking this true, not having a plan
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: in terms of what to do, you know, with the
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Homo straits, what to do with the oil? You know,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the United States told Israel not to hit oil depots
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: inside Iran, but Iran's just launched a drone attack onto
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: the oil depots in Oman and they're on fire, huge
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: quantity of oil on fire, sending a message in tai Golf.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: They're trying to strike Saudi oil fields, Saudi refiners. I mean,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: there's enough defense systems to knock those out. But they're
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: trying to destroy the oil industry in the Gulf. And
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: yet the US and Israel will not attack all facilities anyone.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: Why not starve the Iranians. Why is the island still
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: there loading up oil and allowing it to be shipped.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: It's mind boggling. Our prices continue to go up. And
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: now as a consequence of all of this, there were
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: I think eighty seven last time I looked again, they
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: were around sixty not that long ago before the war.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: But I was just looking at all prices. We will yeah,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: eighty seven point sixty nine right now eighty seven point
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: seventy three, So they're flunctionating around eighty seven, eighty seven,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: eighty eight. They were as low as eighty earlier today,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: So moving around a lot. Eighty eighty three earlier today,
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: eighty yesterday, moving around a lot within a band between
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: eighty and ninety, it seems, which is not bad relative
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: to what looked like it might go a few days ago. So,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: and part of this is that the i e A
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: i e A, which is the International Energy agency which
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: coordinates internationally, they are they come. They have decided, I
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: guess the agencies out of Paris. They have said that
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: the member countries are going to release four hundred million
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: barrels of oil from emergency stocks. So this is the
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: DIGIC reserves. They're going to be opened up. We're going
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: to see four hundred million barrels from European countries and
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: other countries being released in order to help stabilize the
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: price of oil and make sure it doesn't go up,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: you know, above one hundred. The release of the oil
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: would more than double the agency's biggest prior release, which
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty two after the after the Russians
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine, So this would be more than that. In
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: that point, one hundred and eighty two million ballos would
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: put on the market. This is all intending to counter
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: the massive disruptions caused in the Strait of Homos. Again,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: why isn't their plan, Why wasn't their plan? And if
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: there is a plan, why isn't it being implemented. You
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: think that would be one of the first things the
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: US does, bomb Iran while securing almost straight But this
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: is a problem of Trump running this war. They're our thinkers,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: they're our planners, They're not strategists. So yes, I mean.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: The IA was created in nineteen seventy four after the
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: all embargo of seventy three, which is Saudi oil embargo
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: because of the Yom Kipu War. It's a club of
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: thirty two Western nations and some allies, and each nation
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: has their own reserve and they are releasing a significant
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: part of that reserve out into the world. The Japanese,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: for example, when unilaterally release oil from their strategic reserve
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: as soon as Monday, So next week they will release
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: fifteen days worth of oil from private sector stockpiles and
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: another thirty days worth from government reserves. The Germans said
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Germany would participate out of solidarity with other members. So
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: you know, we can expect again four hundred million bowels.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of oil to help keep the price
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: relatively relatively within zeck and away from above one hundred,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: and certainly away from the two hundred, which is what
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: I think the Uranians would like it to reach. So
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, the West is acting to try to solve this,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: but the real solution, of course is to end this
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: were quickly, but for that we'd have to be a
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: lot more ruthless. But in the short run, to secure
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: the Homo Straits, which again doesn't seem like to be
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: in the plan, doesn't seem to be something the US
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: military wants to do again. According to the Wall Sea Journal,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Iran is exploding more oil through the Strait of Homoes
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: now than before the war started. That is to me
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: stunning that we're letting that happen and we're not stopping
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: it because that's money. There's money in the bank and
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: it'll be interesting if the fact that they just attacked
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Oman oil tanks will change Trump's attitude, Welly Hill respond
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: to that, By the way, the lack of oil or
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: the high price of oil affects fertilizer. You know, fertilizers
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: made from oil ultimately, and you know that market is
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: being her So we will see, as I've already told you,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: the Saudis are going to be pumping oil west, so
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: they're going to get around the states of Homos, but
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: that is obviously taking them time to get that ramped up. Yeah,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: and you know the Ranians. For the Ranians, the only
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: cords they have right now is oil. The only card
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: they have is to destroy or to do damage to
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: the oil industry in the Gulf States and to cause
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: all prices to spike. That's the only weapon they have
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: because they can't compete militarily, right they can't do damage.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: They're not doing any damage to the US. They're doing
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: damage in the Golf but even then, not a lot
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: of damage, particularly as compared to what's happening in Anyon.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: By the way, Anyon, one of the targets last night
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: was one of the Iran's largest banks. It's data center
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: bank Seppa, its data center was attacked. This is the
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: bank that pays salaries to all regime forces, and the
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Uranians have already announced that the soldiers members of the
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: of the Iranian the Islamic Revolutionary God should not expect
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: paychecks anytime soon. So the data center for their main
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: bank of the Ranian regime that pays salaries to its
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: military has been bombed. It's been destroyed. You know, I
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: assume they're backup, but it's going to take a while
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: to get the backup going. The Uranians themselves, the population
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: in Iran at least, you know, we don't oppose or
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: anything like that, but certainly people that Western journalists are
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: talking to seem to be supportive of the bombing. Right.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Here's from one. This is from the New York Times.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: We talked to an engineer in Tehran. It's his experience
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: of being bombed is even more terrifying because the government
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: is sharing little information and sitting few alerts, said Ali,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: an engineer in Tehran. Ordinary Iranians are cut off on
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: the internet, and Ali said people had resorted to calling
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: friends and relatives in areas where they so fired fighter
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: jets headed The ferocity of the attacks has divided sentiment
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: among opponents of the government after brutal crackdown on nationwide
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: protest but security forces last January with thousands were killed.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: This is a quote from the engineer. Some people are
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: comfortable with the bombing. I know that may sound strange,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: said Ali. They are upset if there was a night
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: without bombing, and fear the war might end while the
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: regene remains. You can see this clearly. People say we
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: have already paid an enough of a price in the
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Islamic Republic must go at least, said He was sympathetic
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: to that view. Our lives have no value for the
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Islamic Republic. He said. We are the government's human shield.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: And that's true. And but it's good to see that
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: the Iranian people still have that spirit of a fight
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: in them. Uh to the term let's see. Yeah, it's so.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: You know again, everything continues, Bombing continues as we speak.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: There's no stop. Uh. The Iranians acclaiming the Trump administration
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: keeps reaching out to them with offers of negotiations and
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: potential peace and and uh, you know this is Ali
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Lave and Johnny the guy probably running the war effort,
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: given that the Supreme Leader is probably injured. Uh and
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: and and uh not in the sense of things. He's
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: the Uranian head of National Security Council. He said, quote tonight,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: we received messages in the United States President through the
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Omani mediator. These are the same Omanis who just got bombed,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: requesting that we negotiate a ceasefire. Our response is that
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: we will not accept any negotiations as long as an
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: entity called Israel exists. If that's the case, they'll never
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: accept negotiations ever. So, anyway, as I told you, these Raelis,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: particularly these Raelis, but also the Americans, seem to be
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: targeting all the kind of regime facilities, the besiege, the GC,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: you know, anything that the Uranians could use to suppress
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: their own people are targets now, particularly in Western Iran,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: particularly in Kurdish areas, with the idea that maybe that's
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: where it's art. Were uprising, these areas in which there
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: was a lot of demonstrations, a lot of demonstrations during
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: the uprising in January. This is where a lot of
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: the people killed were killed. A lot of the just
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: mowing demonstrators down was happening. And so Israel in particular
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: is taking out all the regime facilities that make that possible.
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: You know, they attack any any of the headquarters, both
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: in the Kurdish and the very areas. This is in
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: the west and in the northwest of Iran. These groups
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: that might rally more aggressively to getting rid of the regime.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: All Right, the war continues. I don't see how it ends.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think the Trumpet administration negotiating is
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: going to demand turning over all the nuclear material and
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: ending the nuclear program. The Indians were not willing to
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: do that before the war started. I don't think they're
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: willing to do it now. I really do think that,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: you know, Trump constantly saying it's going to end today,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: It's going to do this, and the general attitude of
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: most intellectuals in America that are anti war, that are
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: anti this war, the media is anti the war, the
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: general attitude that seems to exist that this war is failing.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: My sense is that all of that emboldens the Iranians
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: and basically has convinced them not to compromise, to keep going,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: to do everything they can to drive that price of
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: oil up to you know, over one hundred and to
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: hope that the ongoing pressure on the administration will cause
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: the United States to back off of this war unilaterally
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: and leave the Ranians with the nuclear program and leave
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: the Ranians with whatever they have left. I don't think
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: they're at a point yet, and maybe they'll never be,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: because remember, these are This is the thing Trump doesn't understand,
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: and this is the thing Bush didn't understand, and this
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: is the thing Americans don't understand generally. These are religious fanatics.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: They're willing to die for the cause. This is why
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: they should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. This
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: is why they're different than North Korea and the Soviet
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: Union and the Chinese. These people would use it because
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: they don't care about dying. They don't care about the retaliation.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: We just saw one supreme leader gone. Next supreme leader,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: he'll be gone. I'll appoint another one. Now, some people
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: in the regime care, and that's who you hope will
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: ultimately cause some kind of overthrow of the current regime.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: But the leaders of this regime are Islamic fanatics who
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: do not care and therefore will fight to the death.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: And if they fight to the death, you know they're
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: not going to negotiate a way. The one thing that
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: they know in the future could protect them, which is
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon. They're going to fight to the death
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: to keep it. And given how vulnerable they think the
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: United States and how weak they think America is, not
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: militarily but spiritually in terms of commitment, in terms of
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: ability to fight a prolonged war, willingness to fight a
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: prolonged war, not ability willingness, given all the stories about
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: all America's running out of ammunition and it can't do it,
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: and it's not the war's not popular, and this this
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: old cause, the demo, the Republicans are losing the mid
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: terms and all this stuff. Why would they stop? Why
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: would they stop? So so I mean the only way
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: for this and positively, I mean it's gonna end positively
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: no matter what, because Iran will be weakend no matter what.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: But regime change is the one way you secure that.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: And short of regime change, the United States better have
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: a plan to do two things that are going to
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: be necessary in the next couple of weeks. One open
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: up the straits of Homo's I don't think they still
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: have a plan. And two find that enriched uranium and
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: get it out of there. The latest report I saw
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: is that half of it is buried under Stefan and
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: maybe there's a way to get to it, and then
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: others are scattered. Oh, some of it is buried down
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: the four door. You probably couldn't get to that, it's
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: buried too deep. And some of it is is in
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: some lab somewhere. You'd think that would be a priority
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: because once they get the new material out, then you know,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: you think they can negotiate, because then you know, Trump
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: can declare victory and actually negotiate. As long as they
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: have the nuclear material in Iran, Trump cannot declare victory.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Cannot declare victory anyway. That is my assessment today of
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: the war. Again, it's going as well as a war
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: from the air can go. It's sad that Americans have,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: given the nature of war and the importance of this war,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: that Americans are so hesitant to put boots on the ground.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: I think taking Cog Island island where all the all
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: facilities are, would really change the dynamics of this war.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: Putting boots on the ground to try to find the
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: nuclear material and get it out would change the nature
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: of the war. I think both of those are possible,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: but they would require courage on the part of our
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: political and military leadership, which I don't think they have.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: And again, so much of our country is opposed to boots, boots, boots,
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: not bets. Boots on the ground, to putting boots, to
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: putting soldiers on Iranian territory. Needs to happen, special forces, paratroopers,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: whatever needs to be. I don't think they have to
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: go to Tehran the island, secure the nuclear materials, and
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: maybe you know other missions here and there to help
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: with the regime change. But it has to happen. And
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: and the sphere again from Iraq and Afghanistan where we
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: fought so pathetically because of rules of engagement. Uh, you know,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: we need to get over it. We need to fight properly,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: and we need to we need to do what we
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: need to do to win this. The more you drag
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: it out, I mean, the weaker yon will be at
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: the end of it, no question about that. And that's
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: a that's a plus, I guess. But the more desperate
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: they will be to get nukes. You know. The other option,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: of course, is for them to get a nuke from
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: the Russians, or the Chinese could give them a nuke.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: This is why there's so many bad outcomes potentially post war.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: That regime change is the one thing that actually secures
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: this long term, and so one thing everybody wants to
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: take off the table because nobody wants to commit to it.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, if if there's a hint that the Russians
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the Chinese are going to provide them with a nuke,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: will have another war, I mean, I'll have to do
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: this again, and I'm not sure the US will be
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: up to it is. One might have to do it alone.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see, uh, okay, let's talk a little bit.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: We've got a few other stories. We'll go through this
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: fairly fast, and let's sell Taiwan Taiwan looking at what's
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: going on and what Taiwan is trying to turn itself into,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: if you will, is what it calls a porcupine island,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: an island with you know, what do you call the
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: things that the Pokepuon has whatever, Those things are basically
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: enough to fence capabilities. They can't go on the offense
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: enough to fence capabilities to deturn invasion. That means that
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Taiwan will probably soon have, or maybe already has the
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: highest density of anti ship missiles in the world. They'll
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: have over a thousand US and Taiwanese made anti ship
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: missiles along their coasts, a thousand, a thousand of these
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: of these missiles, you know, and unless the Chinese have
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: a really good way of knocking these out of the sky,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: maybe they do, they should serve as a strong deterrent.
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: They're investing heavily in air defense systems to try to
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: deter the Chinese air force from attacking Taiwan and destroying
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: these ship missiles. I mean, you have to defend these
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: missiles from attack from the air, attack from drones. So
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: they they're investing heavily in uh, you know, a drone technology,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: anti drone technology, anti bailistic missile technology, anti cruise missile technology,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: and at the same time anti ship missiles. I suppose
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: the US has supplied them with harpoon missiles land based
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: harpoon missiles, and they have over fourteen hundred total anti
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: ship missiles that they have a raid and they are
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: planning to produce more, build more, and create a massive
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: inventory for these things. Again at the same time as
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: figuring out how to defend themselves from air attack, air
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: attack which would take out their harpoon systems that fire
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: these missiles to see. So Taiwan is looking at this
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: and figuring out, how can it defend itself? How can
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: it defend itself? Which is not going to be easy.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: At the same time, the Japanese are going to be
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: deploying a land to land missiles it's called one thousand
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: kilometer range type twelve missiles on the Japanese islands not
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: far from Taiwan. But what this will do is we'll
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: put China's mainland within reach of these missiles. Now you
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: know Beijing is threatened, don't do this. It's wagged it
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: finger at the Japanese. With the Japanese right now, have
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: a tough point minister who is dedicated to UH, to
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: defending Japan and defending Taiwan if need be and UH.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: By putting missiles on on the islands close to Taiwan,
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: they will be able to hit the coastline of China,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: which is which is which is significant, UH and UH. Again.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: The more the United States gets its allies like Japan,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: like South Korea to actually be willing to deploy weapons
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: that pose a real threat to the Chinese, the more
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: likely you are to deter the Chinese from ever trying
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: to invade Taiwan because they won't want to risk it
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: won't one of risk good. I mean, Japan has the
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: second or third best navy in the world, probably, you know,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: you know, it depends on whether you rank it above
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: the Chinese or below the Chinese. But it's it's it's
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: certainly a large and formidable navy. It's it's large. It's
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: got many submarines, they're very advanced submarines. It's got aircraft carriers,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: it's got battleship. You know, it's got the whole array
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: of ships and the super advanced, super technologically advanced. Again,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: you know, Japan is investing heavily in defense right now
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: that eastern part of the Pacific. You're gonna see, there's
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of action there in an attempt
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: to tour China for invading Taiwan. Now, because that's when
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: that's when you know, if you're gonna have a World
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: War three, it's more likely to be over Taiwan than
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: it is in the Middle East or over Ukraine because
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: the stakes are so high and the players all they're
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: well armed. And of course the United States gets into
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: direct confrontation with China over that potentially that is that
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: is a that could be a disaster. So deterrence is
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: the name of the game. And the moment missilege you
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: can put that in range to destroy Chinese ships or
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: to reach the Chinese mainland. The better. In Japan here
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: will play a huge role in that, and the Japanese
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: Navy will play a huge role in that, particularly submarines. Ababa,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: but Dabba says they have twenty two subs and I
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: think some of the subs have like electric motors which
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: makes them super quiet. So yeah, I mean interesting stuff. Okay,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: See I talked yesterday about this a new tax in Washington,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: and the tax passed, right, so it passed their first
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: income tax. This is the first income tax ever in
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: the history of the state of Washington. Only people making
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: over a million dollars a year will pay it. It'll
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: be nine point nine percent. That will making one of
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: the highest tax rates in the country at a state tax.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Married couples share a single one million exemption, so basically
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: everybody files, you get a million dollar exemption and you
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: paid nine point nine and anything above that, so if
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: you'll combined income is more than a million, you get tax.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: There were a lot of people in Washington State to
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: make over a million dollars. A lot of successful people
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: at Amazon and it, Microsoft and at all the different
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: spinouts and startups that the infrastructure for them, the ecosystem
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: that they've created, including you know a lot of millionaires
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: as Starbucks. So you know this is this probably means
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: that Washington State will have an income tax for people
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: making less than a million dollars soon, right once you
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: establish it. Once the income text is there, it's very
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: easy to lower the threshold as the need need with
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: capital and for money increases, because the more money the
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: stake can milk its people, the more need it has
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: for money. You know, people excited, who are excited, people
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: who never hope to ever make a million dollars or more,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: or never hope to make a lot of money generally
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: even not a million dollars. Because again, this threshold is
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: going to be dropped. You know, middle class people are
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: going to stay middle class because getting wealthy is going
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: to be really difficult. Another ten percent off the top. Again,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: this is above and beyond the federal tax. This is
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: California level of taxation for a million millionaires, California's thirteen percent.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: This is ten and yeah, I mean, this is going
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: to be a major disincentive for building wealth in Washington State,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: and it probably means people are going to leave. And
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: we've got our first announced departure Starbucks founder. The founder
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, announced he is leaving his longtime
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: home of Seattle then moving to Florida given this new
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: income text. Now, remember Howard Schultz is a big time Democrat,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: a big time you know, supporter of democratic causes. It
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter. He still doesn't want to pay the millionairetacks.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: He can afford it, he still doesn't want to pay it.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: So he's been in the Pacific Northwest for forty four
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: years and is off to Florida. You know, maybe the
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: weather has something to do with it, but I suspect
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: it's not the anything. By the way, Starbucks, which has
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: been forever located in Seattle forever, is also moving out
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: of Seattle in terms of this headquarters and moving I
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: thinks to Tennessee. They're relocating to Tennessee, right, So yes,
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's got a long statement about his moving.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: You know it. It doesn't really mention the tax, right,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: he says, like other like many other Seattle based companies.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: Starbucks today stands on the shoulders of many Pacific Northwesterners
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: who built the company. They helped shape the culture, the benefits,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: and the brand contributed to the civic community and the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: public life of the city and state. It is our
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: hope that Washington listen to this will remain a place
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: for business and entrepreneurship to thrive, creating essential opportunities for
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: those in Seattle on surrounding areas well. Maybe not if
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Starbucks itself is moving out, because Seattle and more broadly,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: the state of Washington are becoming less and less friendly
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: to business and less and less friendly to entrepreneurs who
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: want to become millionaires. Uh yeah, pretty pretty sad. Uh
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: sad for Seattle. I mean, tax went for zero to
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: ten percent just overnight. By the way, At the same time,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: in South Carolina, a bill to phase out South Carolina's
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: income tax completely, which is I think more important than
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: phasing out the property tax in Florida, a bill to
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: phase out South Carolina's income tax completely passed in a
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: second the second chamber. It looks like it'll pass. South
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: Carolina will join Florida and Tennessee and some other kintry
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: in Texas as a state with no income tax, while
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: Washington will leave that small group of states with no
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: income tax and join the group of states with an
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: income tax with an income tax. By the way, if
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: you look at movement, you know how Chilch just left
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Washington state, Mark Zuckerberg, Say Gay Brin, Larry Page, Peter Teal,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: and many, many, many others have left California. And they've
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: left California because of this wealth tax that the Californians
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: want to pass. And the latest poll shows that the
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: well tax is likely to pass. It's going to be
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: a referendum and Californias are probably going to vote for
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: wealth tax, and it's going to be a freaking disaster
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: for entrepreneurship in California. It's a well tax only in billionaires,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: So don't worry. Very few of my listeners are billionaires,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: so so you're safe. Uh, but the billion is all leaving.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: You know, the founders of Google, uh and uh in Facebook,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: and Peter Teel and many many, many others. Supposely half
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: the billion is in a state of California have left
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: or are leaving. That's pretty amazing, all right. Uh, let's see,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: so you know that there's always a quiet of when, when,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: and where is the next financial crisis going to happen,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Where is the weak spot in the financial industry. And
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: it's very difficult to predict these things, and you know,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: it's it's and I'm not particularly good at it necessarily,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: but I do find it interesting right now that there
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: are problems within the world of finance right now, and
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: those problems are primarily in what's called private private lending,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: private debt. So traditionally, historically banks have been the ones
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: that lend money. You know, you go to the bank
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: and you borrow money, and businesses borrowed money from banks,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: and banks develop and expertise on how to deal with
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: it and and uh and and how to how to
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: manage it. They have been you know, crises in the
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: banks over issues of debt, but most of those are
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: being around mortgages and shop changes in interest rates. The
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: reality is that banks are very good in terms of
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: business lending, and there'd be no real systemic crises around
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: the country around the banking industry and you know, business loans.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: But dot Frank, which is this massive, horrendous, horrific banking
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: regulation bill to pass Congress after the Financial crisis. One
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: of the things that it does is it disincentivizes banks
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: from doing business loans. What it really does is encourages
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: banks to take in deposits and buy and buy gum
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: in securities and not get into the business of loaning money,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: particularly not to businesses now to fill in the gap
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: because businesses still leave money. What you've had is a
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: massive industry has been created, which is a private industry,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: private equity that is making loans to businesses all across
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: the country. And it's always been a question about whether
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: these how much expertise that they have, how easy is
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: it for them to replace banks, How good is their underwriting.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: Underwriting is the process by which you evaluate a loan's
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: riskiness and the ability of their borrower to pay you back.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: How robust is all of that and it you know,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: it has not been clear and I don't well. Over
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, we've seen a number of
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: indications of call it strain in the private debt private
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: credit market. This could be a result of sloppy on writing,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: it could just be because of some shocks to the
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: system that have to do with AI and software companies,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: and we've seen a lot of asset managers black Rock
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: for example, and others restrict access to some of their funds,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: you know, not allowed withdrawal from fund their funds. JP
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: Morgan Chase today is basically marking down the collateral held
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: by its private credit firms. So it lends money, it's
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: a bank, It lends money to private credit firms who
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: then lend money to businesses. That turns out to be
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: better for JP Morgan regulatory wise than JP Mogan lending
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: directly to the businesses. That's the kind of regulatory insanity
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: that we live under and our bank you regulations and courage.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing now is the JP Morgan Chase is
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: marking down the value of these loans, the value the
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: collateral upholding these loans that have been given to it
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: by the private equity firms that are then making the
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: loans out there. And a lot of this has to
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: do with software companies that have been borrowing money and
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: took a beating in the stock market because of AI,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: and valuations have come down, and there's a lot of
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: uncertainly about the future of a lot of these software
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: companies because suppose the AI will replace them, and whether
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: that's valid or not this is now filtered down to
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: the level of the banks JP Morgan Chase. So all
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: these these particular markdowns have to do with software company loans.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: But we've also seen significantly high redemptions from private equity
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: firms like Blue Owl and Black Blackstone. And you know,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying we're heading towards the financial crisis, but
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: there's something to watch. These are the kind of things
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: that were happening a year before the financial crisis happened
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: in seven. This was happening in O seven before the
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: financial crisis of eight. It's the kind of stuff you
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: saw if all prices going up slows down the economy,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: you could see other problems in the private lending side,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: businesses having problems paying off their debts and so on.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: You know, I expected some of this to happen during COVID,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: and it didn't, I think to a large extent, because
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: the government basically bailed at everybody, including some of the
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: kind of zombie companies that were out there on the
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: brink of going under, and the government gave them money,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: free money, which helped them stay afloat. When wonders what
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: happens if there's a slowdown significant slow down in the economy.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: If there's a session. I'm not saying there will be one,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: but if there's one, let's say because of all prices.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: Because something else something to watch is these private equity funds,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: these private credit funds and uh and and the people
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: who invested in and the people who have lent them money,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: people who've lent them money. All right, let's see welfare.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: You know, I've told I've told you many times about
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: you know, everybody makes a big deal out of the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: welfare fraud, autism fraud, welfare fraud in in Minneapolis, and
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's horrible what happened in Minneapolis by mainly
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: generated from the Somali community there. But they made a
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: big deal out of it because I believe it was
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: the Somalis. But now as investigations are happening around the country,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: what I expected, what I told you would happen, is happening.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: They're discovering fraud everywhere. I mean. One of the main
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: sources of fraud is autism therapy businesses that get money
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: to treat autism from medicaid from the government. An example
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: of this is a is a company in Indiana run
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: by a regular American, not an immigrant, and not dark skinned.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: It appears this woman, Megan Mitchell, started her business in
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, and you know, she started a piece by
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: piece autism center, and by twenty twenty three she was
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: getting twenty nine million dollars a year from Medicaid, treating
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: about eighty four patients. Just to give you a sense
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: of that, that's three hundred and forty thousand dollars a
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: year a child. Sorry, three hundred and forty thousand dollars
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: a child. Now, this is not some high tech, sophisticated,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: you know, very high priced, super duper doctors though, well everything, No,
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: this is most of these Most of the stuff they
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: do here is is stuff that you don't even need
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: a high school degree in order to do. They were
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: charging for some of their therapists dealing with these kids
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: six hundred and forty dollars an hour. Wouldn't you like
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: a job that paid six hundred and forty dollars an hour,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: Well you can have one, thanks to the US government.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: I mean. Mitchell claims her company complied with all of
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: Indiana's rules and object The state never objected to her prices.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: She says, I don't think Indiana really had any oversight
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: or not much. Of course, as a consequence of that,
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: she was raking in twenty nine million dollars a year
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: out to buy a you know, a nice house in Florida,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: a six hundred dollar, six hundred thousand dollars waterfront house
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: in along the river in Indiana. I mean, yeah, all medicaid
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: and this is all over the country. I mean, the
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: number of companies offering therapy, individualized treatments as skyrocketed, as
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: a number of diagnosis of and as an incentive here
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: of autism, particularly mild forms of autism, has skyrocketed. You know,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: direct payments of state Medicaid programs to autism therapy providers
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: grew to two point two billion dollars in twenty twenty
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: three from six hundred and sixty million just four years earlier.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: So it went up by you know, for you know, threefold,
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: more than threefold. Great business to be in, get taxpayer
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: money to do this, right. So yeah, I mean Medicaid
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: fought happened in Minneapolis, no question, but it's happening all
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: over the country everywhere you look. If you dig a
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: little bit, you will find massive thought welfare, Medicaid, any big, large,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: generous government program. There's going to be massive amounts of thought.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: This is what DOGE should have found. This is where
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: the fought really is. It's not in watching in DC.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: It's in all these applications. It's in all these it's
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: and it's a lot of little things, a lot of
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: little things. You're not gonna find it in a computer
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: in DC. You're gonna have to go into the trenches
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: and you know, find it in all these different places.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: You know. Another example of this, and this CBS's credit
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: CBS under Barry Weiss. This is an investigation CBS ran
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: in Los Angeles and I already reported on this story
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, maybe maybe longer, but CBS
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: has now running a big, a big thing about this,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: a show about this. And this has to do with
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: hospice care. Hospice care in California, in Los Angeles. So
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: uh again, Medicaire. This is Medicaire, not Medicaid. Medicare is
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: federally administered and hospice must be certified in order to
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: get reimbursements from Medicare. Medicare will fund your hospice treatment,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: but it's the state that issues the licenses for hospices
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: to operate. Three years ago, California state auditors sounded the
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: long that Los Angeles County had seen a one thousand,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: five hundred percent increase in hospice companies since twenty ten.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: I mean more people are getting old, but not that
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: many people, more than six times the national average. This
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: growth relative to its elderly population. Auditors estimated La County
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: hospices overbuild medicare by one hundred and five million dollars
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: in a single year. They claim to have, for example,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: high rates of terminally ill patients. Hospices usually terminally ill,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: and yet many of the patients they built for were
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: discharged alive. How did that happen? It's a miracle. The
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: state auditor notes. Hospice care treats pain and other symptoms
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: associated with terminal disease, rather than attempting to cure the
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: disease when a cure is no longer possible, or when
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: the burdens of curative treatment outweigh the benefits, so taxpayers
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: are being massively fleeced. CBS reports quote. The state says
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: it proceeded to investigate after the auditor's report and revoke
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: the licenses of two hundred and eighty hospices, but since
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: then the problem was continued to fasten. CBS News examined
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: the businesses and financial records of every hospice currently operating
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: in La County, applying the same indicators identified by the state.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: Indicators of fraud have not stopped. In fact, they've grown.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: The CBS News analysis reveals that over seven hundred of
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: the roughly eighteen hundred hospices in La County trigger multiple
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: red flags for fraud as defined by the state. CBS
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: reached out to Governor Newsom's office. A spokesman sent us
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: a January twenty, twenty sixth statement which reads, in part,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: under Governor new Sims, administration in California is cracked down
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: on hospice fraud, launching partnerships across state agencies, and da da,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: da da, all that bullshit. So yep, so there is
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: so much of this and now some of it. Some
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: of the fraud is associated with the COVID pandemic, all
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: the COVID pandemics stuff, all the benefits that would distribute
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: during the COVID pandemic. So here's an example. This is
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: from Chicago. A South suburban man who was sentenced to
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: ten years in federal prison Tuesday in a massive fourteen
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: million dollar fraud scheme where he collected kickbacks for filing
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: more than fifteen hundred bogus loan applications at the height
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen pandemic. The one hundred and twenty two
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: months from handed down was believed to be the longest
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: sentence for any case in US District Court in Chicago
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: related to the Counties to the Countries Payback Protection Program.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: I remember that, which funded emergency loans designed to give
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: financial relief to small business owners and others during the pandemic.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: It was massive fraud and abuse regarding the PPP. So yeah,
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: the more you look, the more you find much of
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: your taxpayer money gone because of some of this fraud.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: All right, finally, let's talk about housing some more. We
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: talked about this the other day, but the twenty first
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: Century rode to Housing Act looks like it's going to
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: pass the Senate. Now. It has some good stuff in it.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: It has some stuff that is targeted at making it
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: easier for supposed to be built. It reduces the amount
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: of environmental kind of regulation that applies to home builders
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: when they want to build new neighborhoods. But the reality
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: is that most housing regulations occurred to state and local level,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: so it's going to have very little impact. But it
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: is reduced to regulation, right. It also reduces regulations on
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: manufactured housing. You know, in the nineteen from the nineteen fifties,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: there was a into the early nineteen seventies, there was
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: a big push to have manufactured housing, that is, lower
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: the cost of housing by having pieces of it manufactured
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: in advanced and just assembled on the place, and that
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: has been regulated out of existence. There's very little of
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: that going on in America today. Indeed, by some accounts,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: in the early nineteen seventies, a majority of new homes
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: were factory built modular mobile but coming in from the
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: factory that has died, and with it increased productivity. Increased
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: productivity has died in home building. So, okay, that's a
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: little regulatory relief. That's good. We're always for regulatory relief.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: And there's also kind of all kinds of other small
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: incentives to free upland at the local level for local
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: municipalities too. So there's some good stuff in the bill,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: nothing dramatic, nothing that's shadowing, but some good stuff and
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: then there's some garbage. I mean, what's become now. A
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: super popular idea is section nine O one of this
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: new bill. It's called Homes of a People not Calledporations,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: which restricts the purchase of new single family homes by
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: large institutional investors. This is something Elizabeth Wohn was pushing
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: for for a long time. Bet is owing in the
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: bill because Trump became a huge fan of this. So
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: it cuts off institutional home investors from you know, insurance
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: and VA guarantees and all if any, if any, and
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: all of this basically also imposed as a seven year
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: mandatory divestiture rule, forcing institutional investors to convert rental homes
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: to owner occupied units after seven years. So if you own,
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: if a corporation owns a bunch of homes, they have
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: to sell them. Now people are living in those homes.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: They're renting, not owning. But who said? Who said that
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: owning is better than renting? Renting allows you for more flexibility,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: renting your models for mobility thing might be cheaper. And
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: yet what this bill really wants to do is destroy
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: the rental market for single family homes. Nobody objects to
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: institutional investors buying apartment buildings or commercial real estate. But
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: when it comes to single family homes, oh my god,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: that is a no note that must not be allowed.
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: That is nuts. You know, they can buy apartments, hotels,
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: not family homes. That's the American dream. So what you'll
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: get is a shrinkage of the amount of properties available
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: for rent, force people to buy when they might not
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: want to, which is not necessarily good for local mobility,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: for affordability, for what people can afford. And the reality is,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: as I've said many times on the show, institutional investors
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: own a tiny number of homes. So even if all
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: of these homes are going to be down for sale,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: it's not going to change prices significantly. It's just it's
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: just it's just populist stupidity, something that is just encourage people.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: You know, the Trump can use in his campaign speeches
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth wan Whenever Elizabeth the One and DONALDS. Wump agree
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: on something, you have to be suspicious. In addition, this
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: will kill all construction of new homes for rental, which
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: is a you know, it's it's it's not a big
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: segment of the market, small one, but construction of homes
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: will go down. We'll go down and that will have
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: a negative impact on home prices over the long run.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: So it's just it's just an absurd policy again done
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: for purely popular some bidy reasons with no economic justification.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: This is what Republicans have become. They become, you know,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Waugh. The surpassed the Senate by a big margin.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe Ran Paul will vote against it, but
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: basically everybody else is for it. I told you about
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: rents declining in Austin significantly. Where there's a list of
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: where rents are declining the fastest in the country and
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: where they're going up the most in the country, and
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's pretty straightforward. They're going down dramatically in
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: places that allow build build Florida, Texas, Colorado, North Carolina,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: and Arizona, Savannah, Georgia makes the list right, that's where
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: winds are going down. Rents are going up California, Illinois, Oregon,
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: New York, Virginia, Kansas, Nevada, higher up Penslvanian. So a
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: bunch of states. But the down is where they all
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: off for the building. And you can see that by
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: the fact that in the markets where into going down,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: they have dramatically increased the amount of homes available for rent.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: So among the top fifteen markets cutting rents, the median
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: supply growth the growth and supply of available units was
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: five point one percent, which is very high, whereas the
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: ones that saw an increase in rents, the median supply
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: growth was zero point six percent. So again, I mean,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: this is not hard, this is Straightfowd economics. But this
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: is exactly this is just I mean, this is nobody
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: ever learns you want a government solution when a top
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: down solution you don't want to pay to economic principles.
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: This is this is you know, populism, socialism, leftism, statism,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: and altruism. You know, so some people are being sacrificed,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: but a lot of it is just lobbying. Right, If
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: you own a home in one of these areas, you
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: don't want prices to come down. You want prices to
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: go up because your equity will value will go up,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: so you vote to respect the supply. So it's this,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: you know, self destructive behavior that is deemed to be
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: self interested, but it's overall self destructive because it overall
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: increases the power of the state, which is going to
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: hurt you one way or the other. All right, that
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: is the news for today, Wednesday, March eleventh. We went
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: for a long time, so let me just remind you
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: that if you value my presentation of the news, as
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: quite a few of you seem to do, because the
• 1:27:00
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• 1:27:20
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• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: love to see that grow by about fifty percent this
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: next year. So if we chip away at it slowly,
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: that'd be great. If there's anybody out there can do
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: one hundred dollars to fifty a month something like that,
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: that would be amazing that that's that's the kind of
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: support this show really needs. Of course, I value the
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: two dollars, ten dollars, twenty five dollars as well. All right,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: let's go to our questions. Let's start with Michael. Michael,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: is nuclear power being legalized because it's needed to power AI?
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: Is Alex Epstein's influence, Epstein's influence, the power that seemed
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: to be the powers to be seen to be impressed
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: with Alex. I think it's a combination of a number
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: of different things. I think it's a combination of people
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: realizing across the world, really including in Europe, surprising that
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: nuclear power is safe and is needed, and that I
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: think people are slowly realizing that wind and solar are
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: not a solution, they're actually a problem. Now Alex has
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: highlighted that and brought a moral further to it. That
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: never existed before, and that it certainly thinks as influencing
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: things in the United States, and I think by extension
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: influencing things even in Europe. So I do think Alex
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: has had an impact. So it's the need plus Alex
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: and the people who've been influenced by Alex pushing for
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: this that has had an impact. Absolutely absolutely. I mean
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: Alex Alex is doing, you know, an amazing job and
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: has the ear a very very influential people both in
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: the business world and in government, primarily in the US.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: But I think by extension internationally all right, Thomas Thomas
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: Sussis in the Trump administration claim that he really seemed
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: to think this is essentially another venezuela. Drop lots of bombs,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: take out the leader and wait for the regime to
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: kneel before Trump and beg for mercy. Yeah, because he
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: can He can't think of a ideologue, the fact that
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: somebody would be willing to die for their ideology with
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: the religion in this case. Trump can't conceive of that.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: He is a power, you know, he is all about
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: momentary satisfaction. He's a thug, He's a mafia boss. Mafia
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: bosses know that They can always cut a deal with
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: other mafia bosses, particularly once they show how strong they are,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: because no other mafia boss wants to die. But when
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: you are dealing with Islamists, they're willing to die. They're
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: willing to die for the cause, and Trump cannot conceive that.
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: To him, it's all like Venezuela, and Venezuela wins so smoothly.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't it go well in Yuan? You know, if
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: there are thugs, then I know how to deal with thugs.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: You take out the top guy, and the people underneath
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: him immediately cut a deal because they want to live well.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: Not if you're an Islamist who believes in seventy two
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: virgins and you'll get the benefits of God and Heaven
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: flu eternity, then you're not going to cut a deal.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: But again, a mentality cannot conceive of that. He cannot
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: even think in those terms, and there's nobody around him
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 1: that will tell him that. Now. I think Rubio and
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 1: even Heckseth can conceive of it because they're religious enough
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: to know what it entails. Trump cannot. You just cannot.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: That's what happens when you appoint basically somebody with the
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: mentality if I'm afia boss to be president of the
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: United States. Jennifer, here's a joke we can relate to.
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: Would of the day Dejah pooh, the feeling that we've
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: heard the same shit before. That's pretty funny. Yes, that
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: is one that we can definitely relate to, because the
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: ship just repeats itself over and over and over and
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: over and over again, and it's the same rotten philosophy
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: guiding what people are doing and how they behave and
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: what they do. Michael says, have you been to Guangxu, China,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: incredibly impressive city. Yes, I have been in Guangzhu. It
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: is an incredibly impressive city. I've been there twice. And yeah,
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: but the whole region, if you go from Guangzhu to
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: sen Jan to dong Guang, that whole area just out
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: basically adjacent to Hong Kong. I mean it's not. I
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: mean the train ride from day to Hong Kong is not.
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: It takes a few hours, but it's adjacent. Given the
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: size of China, that was the first area that was
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: there was deemed a free trade zone in the nineteen eighties,
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: maybe even late seventies, early eighties, and it boomed, It
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: boomed since then. So it's the first zone in China
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: to be granted some economic freedom, and it's because it's
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: succeeded so much that other parts of China were granted
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: the same kind of economic freedom. So Michael U in Guangxu,
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: I'm curious. Michael says, how can Trump be successful in
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: this Iran campaign? How can Trump ever be successful in
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: this Iron campaign? He's a narcissist with no ability to
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: think long range in principle, Yeah, but the Iranians are pathetic.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: The Ranians are super weak. They could collapse at any moment.
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: So you know, when you're bully, you can beat up
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: on weak people, even if you can't think long term.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: And I think there are people at the Pentagon that
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: can't think, the people who buy their weapons, and you know,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: the generals, you know, they can think obviously, not perfectly
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: because they missed the straits of home wars. But that's
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: Trump's fault, because, yeah, he was you just wanted to
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: jump in, and he believed again that this would be
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: like Venezuela. A few days and they surrendered and that
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: would be it. Eric asked, do you know Tom Bill?
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 1: You he mentioned I Rand, and that was shrugged often
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: in his podcast Impact Theory. Any thoughts, No, I don't know.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I noticed a lot of people
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: mentioned I Rand. But it would be interesting to find
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: out who he is. I'll copy this and see if
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: maybe the Institute can contact him or something. Thanks, Eric
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: Ali says, value for value. Thank you all the appreciate that.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: Harrison says, Thoughts on the Sky is ours by feed
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: Rate Command. I haven't I haven't listened to it. I
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: haven't listened to it yet, so I'm trying to Yeah,
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: you asked me to. Yeah, but that's you're sponsoring a song.
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: But it takes me a while to do that right.
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: It can take me weeks before I actually give my thoughts.
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: So you're gonna have to be patient. You don't have
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: to ask again. I appreciate the five dollars, but you
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: don't have to ask again. I will. I will get
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: to it. I promise. Remo for your interview with Andrew
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: Fox was great. Thank you, Remo, appreciate that. Thanks for
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: all the value, Remo says, thank you. Remo. Harison says
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: Jack Lang, the guy who had a bomb thrown at
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: him in New York City is the same guy leftists
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: tried to stab at his anti Somali protest in Minneapolis.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: I think they will get him eventually. It seems like
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: it seems like he's egging them on, and given his views,
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's justified. I'm just saying it seems
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: like he's egging him on, and he goes to all
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: the places where they might get him. Paul, do you
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: think that Iran would be desperate if they thought they
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: will lose the war and destroy their own all capacity? Now?
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't think that's part of
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: their but it could be wrong. I just don't think
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: that that's how they would go out Crypto fanatics is
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: where can I read the Objective's list of individual rights?
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: How do they differ from the Bill of Rights and
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? Well, they differ certainly
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 1: from the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, But there is
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: no list of rights because there is no list of rights.
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: Basically is one right. There's only one right. That's the list.
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: You have a right to life, which means you have
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: a right to take actions, to act in pursuit of
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: your own values, using your own mind. That's it. And
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: the right to property is a derivative of the right
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: to life because in acting you will create stuff you
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: will gain through your work property and as part of
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: your right to life, that is yours because you created it.
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: So right to property is a derivative of the right
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: to life. Right of free speech is the same thing.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: It's a derivative of the right to life. You have
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: a right to live act. Part of that action is speaking,
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: it's writing, it's expressing yourself. You have a right to liberty,
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: which is the right to think and speak. And you
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: have a right to pursue happiness, which is broad right.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 1: You have a right to act on your own behalf.
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: You have a right to pursue your values, using your mind,
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: your reason, free of cosion. That's the only right you have.
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: But that's pretty broad. Basically, you have the right to
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: everything that you do not acquire through the use of
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: force by violating other people's rights. So the right to
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: life is go live and the government will protect you
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: from force coosion. That's what it means. So there's no list.
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: For example, you have a right, there's a right to
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: healthcare right, what's the right to health care? You have
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: a right to negotiate whatever terms you can with whatever
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: doctor you know is willing to negotiate with you, and
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 1: to get any treatment that you and the doctor agree
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: to based on the negotiations. You have a right to
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: negotiate and as a consequence, negotiate with pharmaceutical companies to
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: get whatever drug you want to get. That's kind of
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: the right to health. The right to a home is
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: the right to go out there and you know, negotiate
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: him buy a home. But the only way to do
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: that is voluntarily engage with other people to So there's
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: a sense in which if it's a right to action,
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: it's a right to all action short of that which
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: involves using force on other people. I would highly recommend
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: for that reading Man's Rights. It's an essay that is
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: at the end of Virtue of Selfishness. That's the book
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: or Capitalism Not Known Ideal, another book of iin Man's Essays,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: So you can find the essay dealing with rights at
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: the back of that essay. Jason, do you think the
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: FED might cut twenty five basis points given oil and
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: war this month? Predictive markets five dollars on yes, pays
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty Who I don't know. I mean
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: the good news was the CPI number came in very
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: low yesterday, lower than expected. The job market is very bad,
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: I mean no negative job growth in February and revising
• 1:46:20
  Speaker 1: downwards a previous months. I mean then the amount of
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: jobs revised down over the last year has just been stunning.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: So we're in a what they call the job recessions.
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: There's there's suddenly a problem with job creation in the
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: US economy. US economy is not creating jobs. Part of
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: that is kicking out the legal immigrants. So that would
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: suggest those two things would suggest, yes, they would cut
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: twenty five basis points inflations seems to be under control,
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: I mean CPI at least, and jobs are problematic, that
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: would be the rationale. Cutting inter states is not going
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: to affect all prices, you know, one way or the other.
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: So all prices will go up, affecting other prices will
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: go up irrespective of interest rates. Gloria says the IRGC
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: hood I moved to California, so now they're threatening to
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: attack it. My bad. Thanks for covering the war you're on.
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: I cannot stand mainstream news coverage of the war and
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: their pessimism. Thank you, Gloria. I really appreciate that. You know. Sorry,
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: the ILGC is after you, but luckily you're in a
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: big state. It's going to be hard for them to
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: find you. So thank you for watching my show and
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: thank you for supporting it. Am a key, get a job.
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 1: I guess Harrison is paying for your question. What do
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: you think of David Deutsch's attempt to define a rational
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: episod stomology. I mean, I think he's fundamentally wrong in
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: his entire approach to epistemology. I think Ironman's already defined
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: irrational epistemology, and they defer dramatically. Iran starts with the
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: senses and starts with induction, and induction is our main
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: means of knowing, of discovering new knowledge. Deutsch, like Papa,
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 1: starts with speculations, starts with imagination, starts with coming up
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 1: with an explanation just out of nowhere in your mind
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: and then testing it. And I think that's really wrong.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: You don't start in the mind, you start in reality.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: The mind is integrating something. It's the mind is aware
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: of something. Human consciousness is awareness of what, it's awareness
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 1: of reality. That's where all knowledge starts. All knowledge starts
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: in now, it's not that reality imprints itself on our mind.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: So I agree with Deutsch about the rejection of intrinsicism
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: that somehow knowledge imprints itself, and I agree with him
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: about his objective to subjectivism. But I ran to solve
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: that problem with this idea of the mind integrating the
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: facts of reality. That is what real knowledge is, and
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: so I disagree with Deutsche. I mean my Deutsch. A
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: lot of what Deutsch does, I admire a lot of
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: his work, but I disagree with him about this. All right, guys,
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 1: thank you. Thank you to all the super chatters. Thank
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: you to all their viewers and people here. I appreciate
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 1: your support. I will see you, I hope tomorrow. No
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: guarantees all be in Honduras. I'll be in Prospera in Honduras.
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: We'll see what the internet connection is like. I assume
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: it's going to be good because it's Prospera, but I
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 1: can't guarantee that. So if it is good, I will
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: do a show tomorrow. If it isn't good, I won't
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: and the same for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. There
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: will be no shows. So wish me luck. I pray
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: to the Wi Fi gods, and hopefully I'll be with
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: you from Central America tomorrow. Bye, everybody,