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NFC East Division Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We are continuing our division by division breakdown before we
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: get to the NFL season, all things betting, everything you
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: need to know. We're doing it this month, folks, before
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: the NFL kicks off. I got my companion, I got
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: my bff, I got my compadre. I'm talking about Chris Raybond.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Oh snap, oh snap, I fooled Simon Hunter. Raybond is
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: on the show. He qualifies as all of those things.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: But Simon am of course referring to you, dude, you're
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: braving it out. Yeah, I got a tooth done today
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: and I haven't had a root can out done before.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: What is this your full chatter? We're doing a show
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: right now, Like, I don't even know why I'm doing
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: a show the day. I don't want to give it
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: away what they are doing this because we're doing this,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: not I'm happy to share. We're doing it Monday, We're
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: according back to back. We're doing it because, um, I
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: am going out of town for a few days and
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be able to record on Tuesday and Thursday. So
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell is like, hey, let's just do them both
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: at the same time because what we're talking about, like
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: it's pretty evergreen and related to the betting world. So
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: we're getting it done now. It happened to, you know,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: coincide with the opportunity to use the incredible health insurance
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: at the Action Network to get a root canal facts
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: and uh, because of COVID, you have to make it
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: a schedule like five months in advance. So I made
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: this forever. I don't even remember it. And then you know,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: you just check your calendar on your phone once a
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: blue moon, like it's like, oh, that's not a holiday,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: that's an actual appointment on my calendar, and uh, all
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, Man Mich was like, yeah, we're doing
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a show on Monday, And I was like, what the hell.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: We've never do shows on Monday. So I'm feeling good.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: If I say anything in six months that I regret,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna blame getting our root can out today.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So definitely gonna say some questionable thanks today on the show. Well, listen,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Raybon is here, who can do most of the talking
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: because he'll be locked in on the NFC East in
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: our division by division breakdown. Chris Raybon from the All
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: New Fantasy Flex podcast, one of our most popular podcast
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: historically here at the Action Network, got a brand new feed.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybon, Shawn Corner, Samantha pa Bed They're gonna be
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: doing it all Fantasy Flex. Download it, rate it, subscribe it,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: love it, make money off it. Raybonds got a new location.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: How's everything out in l A these days? Mr Raybon?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I love it out in l A, chad Um. Interestingly enough, Simon,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: my dentist is still in New York, so I've recently
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: actually made a trip back to go to the dentist.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: There appears to be a fire drill, but we're just
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: gonna wait for that to pass. And there's a fire
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: drill in your apartment right now. It's like the like
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the last few times, the fire has actually just been broken.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: It hasn't been a real fired drew, which I'm assuming
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: is what's happening now. So I'm just gonna pretend that
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: nothing's happening, but hopefully this goes off soon. Yea. Ray
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: talks with NFC East. Well, let's do it right now,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys. This is how bad the NFC East is.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: It's to me, it's one of the least interesting divisions,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: because the Dallas Cowboys have the shortest odds to win
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl of any team in the NFC East
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: at about thirty to one. Okay, then it's the Washington
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: football team at about fifty one. Then it's the New
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: York Giants at about seventy to one, and then the
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles heard about seventy five to one. Agree or
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: disagree with these odds, Simon Europe, first, give me your
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: take on the four teams, and there are Super Bowl
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: futures here a dirty little secret. I've bet every single
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: team's future Super Bowl odds in this division except the Boys,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: just because it's one of these things where I'm literally
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: betting on a team right now to win a division,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: which means they have a home field game in the
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: playoffs at greater than fifty to one odds. I'll take
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: that any day of the week. I don't think the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Giants are good at all. I don't think the Eagles
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: are good at all. Washington, We've talked about it. I
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: believe in that team. So it's one of these where
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of fading the Cowboys noise where the general
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: public has coming heavy on the Cowboys, like just grading
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: out looking at this odds, it should be like this
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: is what my system has it based at as a
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty for the Cowboys and then the Washington
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: football teams plus one fifty. So it's literally the GAP's
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: way smaller than the general public is making this because
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I feel like people aren't taking a concern that Dack's
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: coming off a major and injury, major knee injury, with
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: what we can say is a questionable offensive line. I
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: get he is incredible receivers, all those things, but his
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: offensive line is not what he used to do it.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: And now he's got to think on all his his
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: throne shoulder because he like rushed back and he's doing
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: too much on that. It's just all a little bit
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: of red flags to start the year, and I feel
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: like people are just still betting the Cowboys where it
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: feels like the Washington team should be a lot closer
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: in these odds. Yeah. Look, we we've been in love
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: with the Washington football team since the second the season ended,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: thinking that you know, their defense is amazing and what
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: they have on the front four could go down historically
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: as one of the best front fours ever. And when
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: you can be that good all you need to do
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: is improve a little bit at quarterback. And we saw
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: what they could do with basically a guy literally off
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: the street against the Bucks, uh, and how they almost
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: pulled that off in the playoffs. This is a fierce,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: fierce defensive front. Now they got fits Magic, who you
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: could argue is going to make them a little bit better.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Also could cost them any opportunity to advance in the playoffs,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: but we'll make them better, Raybon, do you have a
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: take on the Washington football team and their place in
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: sort of the super Bowl firmament? I think Washington is
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: an outside contender for a Super Bowl. I think they
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: are the best shot of any team in this division.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I think they should actually be the favorite in this
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: division just because of their defense. I think Dallas has
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: a great offense, but I still think the defense so
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: be shaky. So I think the Giants are really concerning
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: with their the fact that offensive linemen are retiring. The
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: offense hasn't had a good camp. Yeah, I just don't
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: think they're putting enough protection wise. Uh. In front of
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones and then the Eagles, who knows what's going
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: on with them. They may not have a truly real quarterback,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: UM high upside quarterback. But yeah, that roster I think
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is still a little bit barren compared to a team
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: like Washington UM and a team like Dallas whose offense
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: again should be really good. So it's Washington or Dallas
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: for me an asset. Alright, So Simon ray Boon feels
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the same way as you do Washington football team. He's
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the same way. We're like looking at each team like
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: He's right. The Eagles, they're just a really unproven team
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: and it's a rookie head coach. That's why I like,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna tell anyone to put money on the
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Eagles futures and anything like. I took Hurts at hundred
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: of one to get m v P. But it was
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: just simply when Carson was there, I said, Okay, there's
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: value here, Chris Carson's not going to be here, and
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: sure enough he got traded. We saw his line move again.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: It's the same thing as Trey Lance. Do I think
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Tray Lances really gonna m v P. No, We've bet
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: at a hundred one. It's like I can't not bet
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: those kind ods. He's down to actually seventy five to
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: one now after one good week of practice. So that's
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna value based business here. So do
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I really think an NC East team is actually going
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: on the Super Bowl next year? No? Just look at
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the NFC, it's just a really top heavy compared to
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the a f C, where I just feel like the
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Bucks Green Bay, they're just so far off everyone else.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So when we're looking at this division, we're literally just
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: betting the fact that this is this team. This team
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: either could be a three or four seed and at
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: home field in the first round. So that's the reason
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I'm telling people I do like the value on these
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: teams futures just because of that simple fact. Where again,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: and Daniel Jones, I'm with him like that, dude, he's
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: been awful. We're not we're not believers on that show
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: of Daniel Jones. I mean we bet them at the
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: end of the year last year, just simply because the
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: numbers were getting so insane, Like they were like five
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: point home dogs or three point home dogs to Dallas
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: that final week of the year. It's like, come on,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Dallas had Andy Darlton, Like there was just getting insane
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: at that point. So it's just one of those where
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I'm buying the whole hype with the Giants. Were they great?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: They have all these weapons on offense and their defense
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: should be improved. But like Chris said, that offensive line
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: is shaky, and that's one of the biggest things to
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: me is oh line play. So again, I'm just not
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: really buying all these teams. So I'm with him. If
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: you're you're looking for two teams for just divisional bet,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's either Cowboys are Washington at this point. Yeah,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: when you when you look at the Giants training camp
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: report of the athletic Dan dugald has, like, you know,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: his ten things that he's learned over the last two weeks.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Number One, the offensive line concerns haven't been alleviated. Number two,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the off pensive line needs reinforcements. That is not what
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: you want to hear if you are investing any money
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: other than zero dollars on the New York Giants, and
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: you're not hearing anything about Daniel Jones blowing people away. Uh.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: And even scarier, they're bringing back a running back who
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: just came up the pop list today in se Kwan Barkley,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: who tore up his knee less than a year ago.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: And all of a sudden, you've got an offensive line
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: that can't open any wholes for him, is probably gonna
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: make his job more difficult and put his health in
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: more danger exactly, And we talked about it with Smant.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: It's uh, it's it's just scary. A lot of stuff
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: you read exactly that where what are we doing here?
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Like it does feel like they're rushing back a little bit,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: just because there's so much concern about Sa Kuan and
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: that he's not ready yet. So it is a little
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: scary thinking about that. Let's be realistic, Stay Koon Barkley's
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: not gonna make or break the Giants. I mean, you
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: had productive games out of Wayne Goldman and Alfred Morris
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: last year. Meanwhile, s Quan when he was healthy it
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: was last couple of years he's had games where he's
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: rushed thirteen times for one yard, you know, fifteen times
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: for six yards. Because he's going to be the focus
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: of that of the defense and the offensive line. Again,
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: like Chad said, can't open holes. But what's that What's
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: interesting about that, raybon is at this time last year,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: from a fantasy point of view, Berkeley was probably considered
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: one of the top two or three running backs you
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: would draft, and now we're a year removed from that,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: and you're like, yeah, he's not gonna be the guy
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: who moves the needle for that team. That's just like
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: a workload hope, right, Chris, where you're just hoping that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: this is the guy that's getting all three downs, that
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: that's simply one of those, because that's so rare now
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. Yeah, exactly, Simon. And And to be
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: completely frank, I am very down on State Qualon this
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: year because after everything that's happened, he's still being drafted
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: as a top five back. He's still going in the
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: top ten. I think that's absurd. But in fantasy or reality,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think Quad is moving the needle in one
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: for this New York Giants team, and I don't think
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: we should be betting on them. I think they're gonna
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: have to run into some luck to win the NFC East,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: whether it be Dat getting hurt again or or something
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: like that major happening with the teams above them, which
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: are Dallas and Washington. All right, well, let's let's go
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: to the odds. I'm looking right now and um at FanDuel,
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing the Cowboys odds to win the NFC East
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty, the Washington football team plus two thirty
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: feels to me, and then the Giants at plus four fifty,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: the Eagles at plus I just want people to realized too,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: that if you've waited this long, you've missed value on
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of that, Like Washington at one point was
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: plus four hundred a lot of books for a while too.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So again, look at week one. You think the Cowboys
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: might loose the Bucks, maybe, don't take them yet. You
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: think Washington's gonna lose to the Chargers week one, don't
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: take Washington yet. This is you're at this time and
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: we've already missed the value. Look ahead and try to
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: see where you can get value later in the season.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Maybe you're seeing that. Okay, Washington start a tough start
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: of the year, but after a week five it gets
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: way easier. That's when I'm hit him for the divisional things.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Don't just bet the bet right now, Okay, if you
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you've already missed a lot of the value in this betting,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: get the best of the number. It's the number one rule,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: the number one rule em betting. But explain to people Simon.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Why is it so important to get the best of
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the number and to keep your head in your pocket
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: when you don't because you're gonna lose. I mean, it's
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the simple math, like the more you bet, the more
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: likely you are to lose. So you're always looking for
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: the highest odds to give yourself the better chance of
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: winning long term. Because again, if you hit Washington this
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: year at four one, you can lose the next three
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: years on the same bet for this division of odds,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: and you're good because you're still up from this Washington bet.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: That's what again we talked in the Super Bowl. People
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: thought that was crazy bet in the bucks mine two
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: and a half. It was just because I found a
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: little cheek coot here where I've won five straight Super Bowls,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: I can lose the next seven straight Super Bowl bets.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I'm still up about what my original put in was.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So it's one of these where I love plus odds.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: So I hate when people bet something now because the
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: numbers already little dead where you're just betting in with
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the public's betting in, and I feel like, again I
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: hate people tying their money up early. But plus four
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: hundred for Washington, we talked about all the reasons to
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: love them. It was just crazy at that time. They're
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: that high. So it's just people are a little late
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: to betting it. I wouldn't touch it at this point. Well,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: what's also interesting, Raybond you can speak to this is
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: you just phrased it as I won the past five
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl Simon said this, if I lose the next seven,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I'm still ahead. You're playing this for such a long
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: game that you're looking at the return on your investment
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: and your performance the way any portfolio manager would. How
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: do I do against the five year industry average? How
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: do I do against tenure? How do I do against
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: twenty years? Ray, you're a massive DFS superstar. You bet aggressively.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Do you take the same perspective when you're thinking about
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: betting over the period of several years, several months? How
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: do you look at sort of the timeline for your portfolio? Yeah?
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: I think that is absolutely the right approach that Simon's taking. However,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: I do know that most of our listeners are probably
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: just looking for, you know, some good bets to make
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: in the next few weeks or whatever. So what I
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: would say is my money still on Washington if if
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I'm betting here, I think Washington should be a lot
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: closer to Dallas in terms of these division odds, and
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: to still get them at, you know, better than two
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: to one, I think it's still a little bit of
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: a value. It's disappointing compared to where the number was,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: but I do think those two teams should be essentially equal.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: So I like the value on Washington, and I will
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: say this, The one other thing I would keep in
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: mind is the Egos have extremely long odds, and I'm
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: a little worried about Jalen Hurts taking that full step
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: forward to make this team a contender. But let's remember
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: they are in the market for a quarterback like a
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson that would drastically change their odds. So I'm
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: actually curious to hear, you know, you're a guy that
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: plays the long game, looks at kind of value. Does
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: that factor in that potential for Watson Eagles? I still
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: think he no matter. We'll have to sit this year out.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: I just think because there's just so much going on.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: But again, I don't want to get too far into
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: because I'm sure we're gonna talk about once we get
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: to all that it's going on with the close to
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the season. But I am a big believer that he
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: is gonna be moved. So I like what. I like
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: what you're saying, Like that would be amazing for Eagles odds,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: but I just see it being hurts this year for
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: them to play out. Even if Eagles do trade form,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I feel like they would have to sit them out
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: for the year just because everything going on, because again
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: it does it's a bummer. But I'll have to check.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: I think he's what twenties six seven, so it's it's
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: not the worst thing that he's gonna lose the season.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: At the same time, it's it is like a lot
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: of baggage right out for any team trading for him. Obviously.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: All right, here's what I want to do. I want
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: to do rapid fire season win total reaction over under
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: from each of you, starting with starting with the Dallas
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Cowboys season win total is nine Simon Europe first over
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: under nine. Yeah, this is when we keep talking about
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Chad last twenty five years. If you had bet the under,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: it has hit seventeen times the last twenty five years,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: so that that is definitely a bet I continue to
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: make every year. But the under nine wins for the Cowboys.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: It is it almost always nine wins? Is that always
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: the number that it's set at? Now, if they would
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: have gone over last year, I gained to you be
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: ten and a half eleven this year. So that's what's
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: so great about it. Whenever they hit it the next year,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: I would just bet more because it's like, okay, the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: public time, I bet this up another two now. Because
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: again it's not that I want to just keep shredding
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys that I do love them pucially for fantasy,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: like that's a fun, exciting team, all the weapons they have,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: but man, just every year better public wise, the Cowboys
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: are always that team. So it is definitely one of
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: those where this is probably a winner win and a
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: half too high than where it should be. Raybound Cowboys,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: nine wins. I'm gonna actually go over because I think
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: I could still get the push at nine, and I
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: like the fact that they had a bad year last
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: year that brought the number down. I actually think this
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: is a fair number, uh, and I feel decently about
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: them going over because of the nine, I can still
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: get to push, So give me the over. But what
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: about this team makes you feel good? About them actually
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: getting ten wins this year. Even within that game the
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: weakness of the division Number one, the Giants and Eagles,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: they should win three out of those four, if not
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: four out of four. Dak Prescott returning he was playing
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: at extremely high level last year and the emergence of
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Ceede Lamb and during your second year. The next team
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: is the Washington football team. They are at eight, their
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: win totals at eight. Sign in Europe first. Yeah, and
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: people are gonna see I mean a lot of Like
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I've seen the data, the numbers that it's they definitely
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: have a tougher schedule of this upcoming year just because
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: simply they want the division. But it's also one of
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: those where it's the QB play like has to be Again,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I don't want to be too hyped on Fitzpatrick, but
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: you see the weapons they have around them, Like I
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: can just see McLaren taking a big step this year.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Their line is gonna be improved. The defense again, they
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: had a great front four last year. The cornerback and
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: safety play should be improved. This actually wasn't that great
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: last year for them, but I think it actually is
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be improved this year. The way that's looking. Um,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: I can't not take this over. This team is just
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: a nine to ten win team and in a very
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: bad division where their toughest competition is the Cowboys. So
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: we just talked about has one of the one of
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: the worst old ligned So in that game, Washington doesn't
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: have a big advantage in that game. Again, I don't
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: care how good receivers are. If you don't have time,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: it just doesn't matter. You're never gonna get the ball away.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: So it isn't sing where I can see this division
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: once again being a little loopie where they haven't had
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: what a repeat champions two thousand four. I think it's
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: well overdue that the team repeats in this division. And
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  Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. Raybond
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Washington football team over the Defense is too good. Might
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: not be a super Bowl team, but definitely a team
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: that can win more games than it loses the I
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: love this team. I love everything about this team. I
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: love Ron Rivera. I love his attitude last year when
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: he decided that Dwayne Haskins wasn't going to be the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: quarterback for that team, and he sort of said, I
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: owe it to the team to do everything we can
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: to win football games in a division that I think
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: we have a chance to win. And that's exactly what
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: he did, and so you know they're gonna be competitive.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: The flip side of that is, if you know you're
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be competitive, you know you have an amazing defense,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: why did you go to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: getting a guy you know you can that can potentially
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: take you to the next level, help you grow even faster.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win over eight games. I like
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: them to win division. It's just kind of a bummer Giants.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: They are at seven wins. Simon your first Yeah, just
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: it's a really tricky one. Obviously, I like Yonder because
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I'm down on them, but there's not that much value.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: I have it at seven like lately, I have a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: right below and at six point eight, so I think
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: I do lean towards yonder. There's just enough value there
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: for me to really play because I see them laning
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: on seven, seven and ten. That's not that out of
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: this world for this Giants team, where they could steal
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: some games here and there with that defense. And again
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, he will play one to two to four
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: like really good orders in a game and then just
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: have about three four turnovers in the game. So with
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: this team, you don't really know what you're getting. Like
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: you you could easily get that win total over, but
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I just wouldn't touch it unless you're a fan of
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: the Giants. I would not be betting this over going
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: under on the Giants. This is a team with a
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: shaky old line and a below average quarterback. They are
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: well coached, they do have some talent at the scale positions,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: but it seems to me like a team that is
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: going to blow a lot of leads, maybe losing a
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: lot of close games. But I am not expecting them
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: to get over seven wins alright. Last one Philadelphia Eagles
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: six and a half over underth I bet this one
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: early on under. Uh, It's it's same thing. Chris was
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: just saying that it's all about the quarterback position for me,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: and I'm just worried about what I've seen from Hurts.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I know last year was kind of a toxic crazy
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: year Philadelphia where you know, he was dealing with Carson Wentz,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: he was doing with a coach who apparently was on
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: the way out. It was just a lot going on there.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: But I just think all this Watson rumors have not
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: helped at all. I mean, a lot of stuff I've
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: read too is like from these Philadelphia beat writers, he's
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: had some rough practices, which isn't a big deal, but
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: at the same time, it's um it's just when you're
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: reading that he's not picked up the offense as quick
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: as they would hope a new offense he's learning it
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: is a little words and so for me, this is
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: one of these things where the Eagles could be only
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: see the shock people. That's why again I bet Hurts
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: at a hundred oh one, because he's just like Lamar.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: This guy can run and he can pass. I mean,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: it's it's one of those things that NFL has really
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: turned into that kind of leak. So he he does
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: have tremendous upside and in the famous red has turning
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: us upside So for me, M I am betting this under.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: But it's not one of those where I'm you know,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: really putting out there anymore a big play, just because
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: again they have the pieces on that team. That's that's
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: in the old line. People are doubting this old line.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: They have a lot of guys back. We're really good veterans. Again,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: if one of these guys go down, they're gonna be
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: in trouble. But as long as this old line is healthy,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, they are top five old line in the NFL.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: Eagles six and a half over under going under six
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: and a half for the Egos Jen Hurts fifty two
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: percent completion rate last year. I think the upsided high,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: but wind totals are a bet based on a median projection,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: and I think the Eagles medium projection is under six
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: and a half wins. I'm worried about the skill positions.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: Davante Smith has missed some time. Urs may be traded,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: and I think the old line will be decent. I
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: think the defense has some question marks as well, and
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: let's not forget it's a new coaching staff, so I
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: think there's gonna be some growing pains in year one
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: for Philadelphia. All right, let me summarize for everybody. Eagles
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: under six and a half, Giants at seven or under seven.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Definitely like Washington football team over eight. Simon left the
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys under nine. Raybond likes the Dallas Cowboys over
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: nine wins. Both of you and me like the value
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: on the Washington football team to win the division at
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: plus two thirties. Simon like the number better, so he
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: doesn't recommend betting it now. Raybond still likes it either way.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: If you think the Washington football team will lose to
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: the Charters in Week one, that might be a better
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: shot to get better value of all the teams in
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: the division to win the Super Bowl. Uh. Simon and
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I have already bet heavily on the Washington football team.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Raybond likes that one as well. This has been the
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume podcast Network. Download rate review from
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. We
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: will see you again on Tuesday as we continue to
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: break down every division since the offseason, betting value for
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: every single team as we head towards NFL kickoff. Until
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: next time, I love you,