Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / How to navigate around tariffs for your holiday shopping

Transcript

How to navigate around tariffs for your holiday shopping · The Financial Exchange Show

0:00
Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
0:02
Speaker 1: is hosted by employees of the Armstrong Advisory Group, a
0:05
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. All opinions expressed are solely those of
0:08
Speaker 1: the hosts. Do not reflect the opinions of Armstrong Advisory
0:11
Speaker 1: or anyone else. Investments can lose money. This program does
0:14
Speaker 1: not offer any specific financial or investment advice. Please consult
0:17
Speaker 1: your own financial, tax, and estate planning advisors before making
0:20
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong Advisory and the advertisers heard on
0:23
Speaker 1: this program do not endorse each other or their services.
0:25
Speaker 1: Armstrong and Money Matters Radio do not compensate each other
0:28
Speaker 1: for referrals and are not affiliated. This is the Financial
0:34
Speaker 1: Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong, your exclusive look
0:38
Speaker 1: at business and financial news affecting your day, your city,
0:42
Speaker 1: your world. Stay informed and up to date about economic
0:46
Speaker 1: and market trends, plus breaking business news every day. The
0:50
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange is a proud partner of the Disabled American
0:53
Speaker 1: Veterans Department of Massachusetts. Help us support our great American
0:57
Speaker 1: heroes by visiting dav five K dot Boston and making
1:01
Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck
1:05
Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
1:10
Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike Tucker with you, and as we kick off
1:13
Speaker 2: another week here, we've got stocks looking awfully nice, at
1:19
Speaker 2: least in the actocate they're looking awfully nice. Take a
1:22
Speaker 2: look around major markets and what we are seeing as
1:27
Speaker 2: a P five hundred up one percent, about sixty seven points.
1:30
Speaker 2: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up three hundred and
1:33
Speaker 2: eighty four points, are about point eighty three percent, and
1:36
Speaker 2: the NASDAK composite is up about one point four percent
1:40
Speaker 2: three hundred and sixteen points. So all major US indices
1:43
Speaker 2: are in the green. We got the ten year treasury
1:47
Speaker 2: back down below four percent again at three point nine
1:49
Speaker 2: nine nine. Yep, that's three point nine nine nine to
1:53
Speaker 2: quote nine. Thank you, Tucker. I knew you were gonna
1:57
Speaker 2: be right there with it. I appreciate that. And so
2:01
Speaker 2: we get the ten year treasury below four percent. Very
2:04
Speaker 2: very briefly, Uh, the US dollar index, Mike, how do
2:08
Speaker 2: you feel about adding the dollar index to what we
2:10
Speaker 2: talk about at you know, the start of a show, if.
2:13
Speaker 3: We're going to we need some people to have some
2:15
Speaker 3: context for it, because what do you mean, it's moving worse?
2:20
Speaker 2: Yeah? I got that, but you know, people will get
2:22
Speaker 2: it as they go. I mean, you know, we you
2:24
Speaker 2: build the familiarity, the continuity, it's it's you know, it's
2:28
Speaker 2: a relationship business, you know. Sure Dollar Index is at
2:32
Speaker 2: ninety eight point twenty nine, up point one percent of dollars,
2:35
Speaker 2: strengthening just a touch today. Despite that, Gold up three
2:39
Speaker 2: and a quarter percent to forty three forty nine and
2:42
Speaker 2: ten cents up one hundred and thirty five dollars today.
2:46
Speaker 2: Despite that's still not at a new all time high.
2:48
Speaker 2: We get a little bit more room to go until
2:50
Speaker 2: we get there. But gold is back on track today
2:54
Speaker 2: after a little bit of a pullback on Friday. So
2:57
Speaker 2: that's what's going on in major markets. Mike, let's talk
3:01
Speaker 2: a little bit about this piece from the Financial Times
3:03
Speaker 2: to kick things off here.
3:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, so inflation data going to finally be released here.
3:08
Speaker 3: We've been dealing with inflation over this year that's been
3:12
Speaker 3: hovering right around three percent. We were but weaker at
3:15
Speaker 3: the beginning of the year, weaker meaning better, and it's
3:19
Speaker 3: heated up accelerated a little bit through the spring and
3:22
Speaker 3: into the summer here, So we're going to be getting
3:26
Speaker 3: this reading what is it Friday of this week, chuck. Yeah,
3:28
Speaker 3: it's going to be Friday, So Friday this week we'll
3:30
Speaker 3: get this reading. My anticipation would be right around three
3:33
Speaker 3: percent on CPI. I'm going to pull up my numbers.
3:36
Speaker 3: Do you know where we were on the most recent
3:37
Speaker 3: reading for CPI?
3:39
Speaker 2: Are we talking monthly or annually? That you want either either?
3:44
Speaker 2: In both? Actually, yeah, I got both for you. So
3:46
Speaker 2: CPI was at point four percent for the month and
3:49
Speaker 2: two point nine two percent year over year. Right core
3:52
Speaker 2: CPI was point three to five percent for the month
3:54
Speaker 2: and three point one one percent year over year.
3:57
Speaker 3: So we have been showing a general acceleration. The questions
4:00
Speaker 3: that I continue to have, hey does that continue? We're
4:03
Speaker 3: clearly seeing weakness on the part of some consumers, so
4:06
Speaker 3: maybe they're not able to fork over these prices at
4:08
Speaker 3: this stage, but that hasn't really prevented prices from continue
4:12
Speaker 3: to climb through July and August. And you know the
4:16
Speaker 3: question that really everybody's trying to answer with this, and
4:19
Speaker 3: we see a lot of people dissecting the CPI for
4:21
Speaker 3: this reason, is the tariff piece showing up in any
4:25
Speaker 3: reality here. It's been admittedly tough for anyone to really
4:30
Speaker 3: put their finger on oh yeah, clearly tariffs are affecting
4:34
Speaker 3: this price point for these goods. It's not been, it's
4:38
Speaker 3: not been a really easy thing to put together with
4:41
Speaker 3: that data.
4:42
Speaker 2: No, I mean no one. You don't get an itemized price,
4:47
Speaker 2: which is like, hey, you're buying a car, this is
4:49
Speaker 2: how much you paid for the aluminum, and here was
4:51
Speaker 2: the tariffs. This is how much you paid for the
4:53
Speaker 2: steal here.
4:53
Speaker 3: Remember when Amazon wanted to do that for about two hours, Yeah,
4:57
Speaker 3: until the President called up.
4:59
Speaker 2: Jeff, Yeah, it was. It was a very very very
5:01
Speaker 2: short lived move by Amazon to do that. So I
5:05
Speaker 2: think that when when we look at this ultimately the
5:08
Speaker 2: piece that is concerning to me on the inflation front,
5:13
Speaker 2: everyone who's listening in their car right now, which is
5:16
Speaker 2: what percent of our listeners do you think are in
5:18
Speaker 2: the car right now? Sixty three? I was gonna say
5:21
Speaker 2: eighty one. In any case, everyone who's listening right now,
5:26
Speaker 2: even if you're not in the car, if you've been
5:29
Speaker 2: in a car recently, you drive around and you say, hey,
5:33
Speaker 2: gas is cheaper than it was a year ago. Gas
5:35
Speaker 2: is cheaper than it was a month ago. Gas prices
5:38
Speaker 2: are coming down. We see this, by the way, with
5:40
Speaker 2: the TRIPAA national average for gas prices three h three
5:43
Speaker 2: and six tenths of ascent. That's down fifteen cents in
5:46
Speaker 2: the last month. Wow. So gas prices are down even
5:50
Speaker 2: you know, you look at most of last year, they
5:52
Speaker 2: were in the three forty three fifty range, down about
5:54
Speaker 2: ten percent from there. So here's the part that's concerning
5:57
Speaker 2: to me, Michael. And you know when I say, Michael,
5:59
Speaker 2: it's serious stuff. It's got today. Actually, yeah, you know,
6:04
Speaker 2: here's here's the part that concerns me. We're seeing three
6:07
Speaker 2: percent inflation at a time when gas prices are down
6:10
Speaker 2: ten percent year over year. Can we expect gas prices
6:14
Speaker 2: to fall ten percent every year?
6:17
Speaker 4: I would think not.
6:18
Speaker 3: No, you would likely eventually reach a point where producers
6:23
Speaker 3: just throw their hands in the air.
6:24
Speaker 2: I mean, yes, we might already be there. You might
6:27
Speaker 2: you might be seeing that based on like I talk
6:29
Speaker 2: with my buddies that work down in the Gulf and
6:31
Speaker 2: they're like, yeah, the rigs aren't you know, quite in
6:35
Speaker 2: the high demand they were at you know, back when
6:37
Speaker 2: you know oil was you know, trad in eighty ninety
6:40
Speaker 2: dollars a barrel, and like that's what you would expect.
6:43
Speaker 2: It's supply and demand. So I think when I look
6:48
Speaker 2: at this, my concern is, Hey, we've got these questions
6:52
Speaker 2: about the US economy right now, hiring, slow, housing, slow,
6:55
Speaker 2: like we've covered them at length. When these problems resolve,
6:59
Speaker 2: because they will not every problem lasts forever, like no
7:03
Speaker 2: problem lasts forever. When these problems problems resolve and things
7:08
Speaker 2: pick up further, what does that do to oil prices?
7:13
Speaker 2: And what does that in turn due to inflation that
7:15
Speaker 2: is at three percent even with falling oil prices.
7:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's the question.
7:21
Speaker 2: It's not a problem for today, but it is a
7:23
Speaker 2: problem probably for the back half of next year into
7:27
Speaker 2: twenty twenty seven.
7:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, the other important question here is
7:32
Speaker 3: how long can consumers support these prices. It's been a
7:36
Speaker 3: question of the top ten percent, and to me, the
7:40
Speaker 3: answer is entirely dependent on that wealth effect. Right, if
7:43
Speaker 3: the stock market takes a big hit, then they are
7:45
Speaker 3: not going to be spending in the way that they
7:47
Speaker 3: have been. And maybe inflation isn't a problem, but it's
7:51
Speaker 3: very difficult for me to see a situation where inflation
7:54
Speaker 3: now gets below that like two for any long period
7:58
Speaker 3: of time below two seven five without a pretty ugly
8:03
Speaker 3: recession or market fall.
8:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of the way it feels to me.
8:07
Speaker 2: I think that's a fair way to look at it.
8:10
Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we return, we're
8:12
Speaker 2: gonna be joined by Anne Marie Kanti from Wirecutter talking
8:15
Speaker 2: about navigating tariffs this holiday season. Will also do a
8:19
Speaker 2: little bit of trivia as well.
8:22
Speaker 1: Here The Financial Exchange every day from eleven to noon
8:25
Speaker 1: Non Serious XM's Business Radio Channel one thirty two. Keep
8:29
Speaker 1: it here for the latest business and financial news and
8:31
Speaker 1: the trends on Wall Street. The Financial Exchange is now
8:35
Speaker 1: live on Serious XM's Business Radio channel one thirty two.
8:38
Speaker 1: Face He's the Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange
8:43
Speaker 1: streams live on YouTube. Subscribe to our page and stay
8:47
Speaker 1: up to date on breaking business news all morning long.
8:50
Speaker 1: Face is the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
8:56
Speaker 5: This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
8:58
Speaker 5: by the US Vergin The Islands Department of Tourism. Looking
9:02
Speaker 5: for getaway that's easy, warm and unforgettable. Discover the magic
9:06
Speaker 5: of the US Virgin Islands, Saint Croix, Saint Thomas and
9:09
Speaker 5: Saint John. Just a short flight from New England with
9:12
Speaker 5: no pass board needed and no money to exchange. Soak
9:15
Speaker 5: up the sun, stroll along white sand beaches, and feel
9:18
Speaker 5: the rhythm of the heartbeat of the islands. The USBI
9:21
Speaker 5: is America's Caribbean paradise. Plan your fall escape now at
9:24
Speaker 5: visit USVII dot com. That's visit USBI dot com.
9:30
Speaker 2: As promised, We're now joined by Anne Marie Conte from
9:34
Speaker 2: Wirecutter here to talk a little bit about holidays, shopping
9:38
Speaker 2: season and how do you navigate prices in the wake
9:42
Speaker 2: of tariffs that may be influencing them. Anne Marie, thank
9:45
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us today.
9:47
Speaker 6: Oh, I'm thrilled to be here. Thanks for having me.
9:50
Speaker 2: First question that I have, do we have any you know,
9:53
Speaker 2: comparisons of pricing from earlier in the year to now
9:58
Speaker 2: on items that's see just where we might be seeing
10:02
Speaker 2: tear of pressure for consumer related goods. Yes.
10:06
Speaker 6: So, when tariffs were first announced and it was sort
10:11
Speaker 6: of an ever changing landscape, Wirecutter decided to pull forty
10:15
Speaker 6: picks that we know and love, and we're across categories
10:21
Speaker 6: and we're a mix of householdhold items and gifts and
10:24
Speaker 6: all sorts of things, and we started tracking those for
10:27
Speaker 6: sixty days and so we wrote a story at that
10:29
Speaker 6: time that really said, oh, prices haven't gone up as
10:33
Speaker 6: much as we thought, and there were a few reasons
10:35
Speaker 6: for that at the time, and then we continued tracking them.
10:39
Speaker 6: So we have been tracking these products over that time period,
10:43
Speaker 6: and so now we have assessed our follow up of
10:48
Speaker 6: where we are now and the answer is still things
10:53
Speaker 6: have not jumped as much as we expected. Now I'm
10:57
Speaker 6: not talking about groceries. I'm not talking about vehicles or
11:00
Speaker 6: things like that. I'm talking about specific consumer goods that
11:04
Speaker 6: people would purchase to be.
11:06
Speaker 2: There for example or two, just just so that people can,
11:08
Speaker 2: you know, kind of see what we're talking about.
11:11
Speaker 6: Yeah, so we definitely saw something spike individually, but across
11:15
Speaker 6: the board we didn't see a lot of change. So
11:19
Speaker 6: one of our hybrid mattress picks, that price went up
11:23
Speaker 6: because it uses steel coils. But we saw in other
11:29
Speaker 6: products prices went up a little bit to account for tariffs,
11:34
Speaker 6: and others went more more broadly. So that could be
11:39
Speaker 6: anything from sheets or colored pencils or candles, items like
11:46
Speaker 6: that where they didn't increase much at all, or if
11:49
Speaker 6: they did, it wasn't as significant as I think had
11:52
Speaker 6: been predicted.
11:54
Speaker 2: So Let's say that someone is trying to go through
11:57
Speaker 2: and do some holiday shopping right now, Let's say that
12:00
Speaker 2: they want to track prices the same way that you have.
12:04
Speaker 2: What's out there for the average person to use so
12:08
Speaker 2: they can figure out, Hey, am I actually getting a
12:10
Speaker 2: good deal on Black Friday? Or is this not really
12:13
Speaker 2: much of a discount from the normal price.
12:16
Speaker 6: Yeah, there are several shopping tools. There's Kipa and Camel
12:19
Speaker 6: Camel Camel, and those two services will allow you to
12:23
Speaker 6: see the price history of what they have tracked, generally
12:26
Speaker 6: on Amazon over time.
12:28
Speaker 2: Is there any using those services?
12:31
Speaker 6: They do have free versions, and then there's also I
12:33
Speaker 6: think higher paid tier versions, but the most accessible is
12:37
Speaker 6: probably Google Shopping and you can input products yourself and
12:42
Speaker 6: then track those over time. And Amazon also indicates when
12:46
Speaker 6: something is at the lowest price on thirty days.
12:48
Speaker 4: Things like that.
12:49
Speaker 6: You have to be careful and you need to track
12:51
Speaker 6: yourself because what often happens in advance of deal holidays
12:57
Speaker 6: is that retailers will spike the prices to make the
13:00
Speaker 6: deals look like better deals, which is why we track
13:03
Speaker 6: our prices every day of the year, because we want
13:06
Speaker 6: to see on a macro level, what is the average
13:09
Speaker 6: price what we call the street price for an item,
13:12
Speaker 6: so that we can assess if something is an actual
13:14
Speaker 6: deal or if a price has been inflated prior to
13:17
Speaker 6: a deal event.
13:18
Speaker 2: And Marie, one of the other stories that I've seen
13:20
Speaker 2: popping up in the last week or two is with
13:23
Speaker 2: shipping in logistics companies that have been saying, hey, we've
13:27
Speaker 2: got all kinds of packages coming into the US that
13:29
Speaker 2: are being delayed coming through customs. Like I've seen ups
13:33
Speaker 2: saying we're having to like destroy some packages and things
13:35
Speaker 2: like that, And gosh, I certainly don't want, you know,
13:38
Speaker 2: Christmas gifts destroyed for you know, my family. How do
13:41
Speaker 2: I like figure out what things look like from a
13:43
Speaker 2: shipping perspective, It is challenging.
13:46
Speaker 6: There are ways to do that. The best thing to
13:49
Speaker 6: do is to try to find out by looking at
13:51
Speaker 6: the product description where the item is coming from. What
13:54
Speaker 6: happened earlier in the year is that many retailers and
13:59
Speaker 6: brands imported as much as they could and held it stateside.
14:04
Speaker 6: So those warehouse stocks are starting to deplete. So we
14:07
Speaker 6: are seeing it increase in more of these delays in
14:12
Speaker 6: items coming into the US. This just happened to me
14:16
Speaker 6: I had ordered something it was coming from China, and
14:20
Speaker 6: it showed up as having arrived on the same day
14:24
Speaker 6: it departed from China, so it definitely was not on
14:27
Speaker 6: my doorstep at that time. We've also noticed that you
14:32
Speaker 6: might see people talking about tariff bills, unexpected tariff bills
14:36
Speaker 6: that they've received. Wirecutter orders thousands of products throughout the year,
14:41
Speaker 6: and we've really only received a handful of additional tariff bills.
14:45
Speaker 6: Where FedEx or ups comes to your door and says
14:48
Speaker 6: we will not release this package unless you pay us.
14:52
Speaker 6: It's often been around the thirty dollars range of tax
14:55
Speaker 6: in taxes to release that product. So we haven't seen
14:59
Speaker 6: that a as common as you might be seeing out
15:02
Speaker 6: on the internet, but it definitely does happen.
15:05
Speaker 2: What other tips might you have for people that are
15:08
Speaker 2: trying to navigate this holiday shopping season as it relates
15:11
Speaker 2: to these issues.
15:13
Speaker 6: I think you really need to shop creatively if you
15:16
Speaker 6: do want to purchase something for someone that price tracking
15:19
Speaker 6: is incredibly important, but also there are other ways to
15:22
Speaker 6: purchase products. There are especially higher end items. If you're
15:26
Speaker 6: looking for something that's fairly luxury, it might be available
15:30
Speaker 6: on eBay in excellent condition, and so we found that
15:34
Speaker 6: with one of our beautiful dance bowl picks. You can
15:37
Speaker 6: find that for practically a quarter of the price on eBay.
15:42
Speaker 6: You can also buy gifts at the grocery store, you
15:45
Speaker 6: can buy gifts at high end pharmacies. There's a lot
15:48
Speaker 6: of different ways to make these purchases, and I think
15:52
Speaker 6: the most important thing is to just think ahead and
15:55
Speaker 6: be thoughtful and be a little bit creative about what
15:58
Speaker 6: you're purchasing.
16:00
Speaker 2: Good, Amory, we appreciate you joining us today. Thank you
16:02
Speaker 2: so much for the information, and we will catch up
16:05
Speaker 2: with you soon.
16:07
Speaker 4: Thanks.
16:07
Speaker 6: Sounds good.
16:08
Speaker 2: That is Amory Conti from the Wirecutter talking about their
16:12
Speaker 2: guide to navigating tariffs this holiday season.
16:16
Speaker 5: All right, time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange
16:19
Speaker 5: and on this bit day. Back in nineteen fifty five,
16:22
Speaker 5: The Return of the King, the third and final volume
16:25
Speaker 5: of The Lord of the Rings by J. R. R. Tolkien,
16:28
Speaker 5: was published in two thousand and three. The Return of
16:31
Speaker 5: the King made its way to theaters across the globe.
16:35
Speaker 5: At the two thousand and four Academy Awards, the Return
16:39
Speaker 5: of the King was nominated for eleven oscars. So our
16:43
Speaker 5: trivia question today how many oscars did the Return of
16:48
Speaker 5: the King win? Once again? How many oscars did the
16:51
Speaker 5: Return of the King win? Be the second person today
16:56
Speaker 5: to text us at six one seven three six two
16:59
Speaker 5: thirteen eight with the correct answer, and you win a
17:02
Speaker 5: Financial Exchange Show t shirt.
17:04
Speaker 2: Once again.
17:04
Speaker 5: The second correct response to text us to the number
17:08
Speaker 5: six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
17:11
Speaker 5: win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
17:14
Speaker 5: Exchange Show dot com.
17:16
Speaker 2: PCENCNBC. My companies are blaming AI for job cuts. Critics say,
17:21
Speaker 2: it's a good excuse your thoughts.
17:24
Speaker 3: Well, first, I want to start with the premise of
17:27
Speaker 3: the story, which I'll just quote a sentence here from
17:29
Speaker 3: tech to airlines. Large global companies have been slashing staff
17:33
Speaker 3: as the real world impact of artificial intelligence plays out,
17:37
Speaker 3: spooking employees. I'm going to start with the fact that
17:40
Speaker 3: we are not at a high level of employee turnover,
17:44
Speaker 3: no matter which way you cut the data right now.
17:47
Speaker 2: No, it's not like we've seen any uptick in the
17:50
Speaker 2: layoff rate given all of this chatter.
17:54
Speaker 3: So CNBC does point out some companies that have laid
17:57
Speaker 3: off employees. Thethansa eliminated fourth jobs Salesforce announced that they're
18:03
Speaker 3: going to do it, Klarna and others. But I want
18:07
Speaker 3: to be very clear that in spite of these announcements,
18:10
Speaker 3: when you look at the broad based data on this
18:12
Speaker 3: economy right now, we are not seeing an increased pace
18:15
Speaker 3: of layoffs compared to this time last year or any
18:19
Speaker 3: other normal economy. Do I buy the premise that, basically
18:25
Speaker 3: their argument is it's really easy to say, either we're
18:29
Speaker 3: not filling that role or we're firing that employee because
18:33
Speaker 3: we no longer need them, and ooh, look at us,
18:35
Speaker 3: it's all because of artificial intelligence. I do buy that
18:38
Speaker 3: as a premise, but I think it probably has more
18:42
Speaker 3: to do with the pace of hiring right now than
18:43
Speaker 3: it does the pace of firing.
18:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. Here here's the interesting thing that
18:48
Speaker 2: we've seen. If you go back almost three years ago,
18:53
Speaker 2: end of twenty two, which is like this is when AI,
18:56
Speaker 2: like generative AI kicked off. Yep, really what I talking about.
18:59
Speaker 2: That was the end of twenty two, which was when
19:02
Speaker 2: chat GPT was released. The layoffs rate is the exact
19:08
Speaker 2: same as it was in January of twenty three. The
19:12
Speaker 2: hire's rate is down about twenty five percent, and the
19:17
Speaker 2: quits rate is down about thirty percent. Right is that AI?
19:22
Speaker 2: It doesn't seem like it based on how those three
19:25
Speaker 2: numbers have moved. It's much more companies just slowing hiring
19:30
Speaker 2: and transitions overall. Quick break Trive Answers.
19:33
Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio.
19:41
Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
19:45
Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete
19:51
Speaker 1: look at what's moving market so far today right here
19:54
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:56
Speaker 5: Market's in positive territory as traders turn the aged on
20:00
Speaker 5: a new week and a wait a new batch of
20:03
Speaker 5: third quarter earnings. Wall Street's also rating for a significant
20:08
Speaker 5: inflation reading coming ahead here on Friday, when the CPI
20:11
Speaker 5: report is unveiled. Right now, the Dow is up by
20:16
Speaker 5: eight tens of one percent, or three hundred and sixty
20:18
Speaker 5: nine points, SMP five hundred up just over one percent,
20:22
Speaker 5: Hire is sixty seven points, NASDAC now up one point
20:25
Speaker 5: four percent or three hundred and fifteen points higher. Russell
20:29
Speaker 5: two thousand and up one point six percent. Tenyure Treasure
20:32
Speaker 5: reeled down one basis point at three point nine to
20:35
Speaker 5: nine to seven percent. Crew to oiled down about three
20:39
Speaker 5: coarters of percent, rating at fifty seven dollars in eleven
20:42
Speaker 5: cents a barrel.
20:43
Speaker 2: Well.
20:43
Speaker 5: A widespread outage linked to Amazon's web services has impacted
20:47
Speaker 5: several companies this morning, including Amazon, Snapchat, Disney Plus, Reddit, Coinbase,
20:53
Speaker 5: and Robinhood. Airline websites including Delta and United were also
20:57
Speaker 5: among those impacted. However, many sites are still seeing signs
21:02
Speaker 5: now of recovery. Amazon shares are up about three quarters
21:05
Speaker 5: of a percent. Meanwhile, Cleveland Cliff stock is rallying twenty
21:09
Speaker 5: four percent after the steel company b third quarter expectations.
21:13
Speaker 5: The company also issued Capital's expenditures guidance of around five
21:18
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty five million dollars for the year, less
21:20
Speaker 5: than a prior forecast of six hundred million dollars. Elsewhere,
21:24
Speaker 5: shares in Cooper Companies climbing over four percent now after
21:28
Speaker 5: Reuter's reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a
21:32
Speaker 5: stake in the medical device maker, Bank of America upgraded
21:35
Speaker 5: AMD's price target to three hundred dollars per share from
21:39
Speaker 5: two hundred and fifty dollars a share. AMD stock is
21:42
Speaker 5: up nearly four percent now and taking a look at
21:45
Speaker 5: the early earnings calendar for this week. Tomorrow, we'll see
21:49
Speaker 5: results from ge Aerospace, Coca Cola, Philip Morris, and RTX
21:53
Speaker 5: ahead of the opening bell, followed by Netflix after the
21:56
Speaker 5: closing bell. On Wednesday, we'll see Thermo Fisher eighteen ahead
22:01
Speaker 5: of the open, followed by Tesla, SAP and IBM after
22:04
Speaker 5: the closing bell. Thursday, we'll see results from T Mobile, Intel,
22:08
Speaker 5: Union Pacific, and Honeywell. And on Friday, we'll have Procter
22:12
Speaker 5: and Gamble and Santa FIV report their third quarter results.
22:15
Speaker 5: I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch. And
22:18
Speaker 5: in the previous segment we asked the trivia question how
22:21
Speaker 5: many oscars did the Return of the King win? That
22:24
Speaker 5: will be eleven. Mark from Newton, Mass is our winner today,
22:27
Speaker 5: taking home a Financial Eks Shane Show t shirt. Congrats
22:30
Speaker 5: to Mark, and we played trivia every day here in
22:33
Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
22:36
Speaker 5: Show dot com.
22:38
Speaker 2: A couple in their eighties wants to do Wroth conversions.
22:41
Speaker 2: Should they? It's an interesting question.
22:44
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal has a piece on this exact subject
22:46
Speaker 3: today and they talked to a financial planner about it,
22:48
Speaker 3: and it caught my attention. I think, if you're considering
22:52
Speaker 3: doing roth conversions in your eighties, it's probably for one reason,
22:56
Speaker 3: which is you want to lower the tax burden for
22:58
Speaker 3: your kids.
23:00
Speaker 2: Can you think of any other reason to do it?
23:03
Speaker 3: No?
23:03
Speaker 2: I mean, realistically, if you look at you know, estimated lifespans,
23:06
Speaker 2: even you know, once you've lived into your eighties, they're
23:08
Speaker 2: typically not long enough for to you know, make things
23:10
Speaker 2: up there. The only place where you can maybe make
23:12
Speaker 2: a case is if there's a big age difference, like
23:15
Speaker 2: if one's like eighty nine and one's eighty one, you say, okay,
23:20
Speaker 2: the eighty nine year old has a lot of the uh,
23:23
Speaker 2: you know, retirement assets. And the worry is, you know,
23:27
Speaker 2: leaving a single spouse with higher you with narrower tax
23:31
Speaker 2: brackets means that the tax burden could go up. But
23:34
Speaker 2: even there, you got to you know, really consider the
23:36
Speaker 2: tax code and be judicious about it, because you could
23:39
Speaker 2: easily see a situation where you get too aggressive there
23:42
Speaker 2: and don't really get a benefit.
23:43
Speaker 3: One item that people often miss about, you know, later
23:46
Speaker 3: life and rock conversions and their iras this couple mentioned
23:50
Speaker 3: in the article, they're worried about what happens if one
23:53
Speaker 3: of us becomes incapacitated or dies, and I want to
23:56
Speaker 3: focus on that capacity piece for a moment here. There's
24:00
Speaker 3: been a number of studies about this. You can go
24:02
Speaker 3: look at Boston College. Actually it kind of does a
24:04
Speaker 3: lot of the preeminent research on long term care. But
24:07
Speaker 3: a lot of folks, if you're a married couple in
24:08
Speaker 3: your eighties, good chance that you're gonna live quite a while,
24:11
Speaker 3: and a lot of folks do end up incurring costs
24:12
Speaker 3: because of that. And if they are, you know, medical costs,
24:17
Speaker 3: say you're in a nursing home or you know one
24:19
Speaker 3: of those scenarios that people really worry about, and you're
24:21
Speaker 3: incurring a lot of costs, you're in most cases not
24:25
Speaker 3: paying a whole lot in taxes because those become fully
24:27
Speaker 3: tax deductible to you. Sure, And so I bring that
24:30
Speaker 3: up to people like I wouldn't worry. So, you know,
24:32
Speaker 3: if your big concern is a nursing home, that's a
24:35
Speaker 3: big concern to having your plan for it. But I
24:37
Speaker 3: wouldn't worry about the tax ability of your IRA in
24:39
Speaker 3: that case because it's going to likely be a non issue.
24:43
Speaker 3: There are a lot of questions out there about roth
24:45
Speaker 3: conversions these days.
24:46
Speaker 4: It is probably one.
24:47
Speaker 3: Of the hottest topics in financial planning, and you know
24:51
Speaker 3: tax strategies that are out there, but I it's gone
24:56
Speaker 3: from a point of almost nobody was doing it when
24:59
Speaker 3: I started my career to sometimes these days people are
25:02
Speaker 3: doing too much of it. And you have to be
25:04
Speaker 3: aware of a lot of different factors when it comes
25:06
Speaker 3: to Wroth conversion strategies. What if I, you know, jack
25:10
Speaker 3: up my Medicare premium is because of it? Am I
25:13
Speaker 3: really doing this for myself? Or is it because I'm
25:15
Speaker 3: working on multi generational planning. If you have questions along
25:18
Speaker 3: those lines, please get the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group
25:21
Speaker 3: of call numbers eight hundred three nine.
25:24
Speaker 4: Three for zero zero one. We work with clients.
25:26
Speaker 3: Every day to strategize around things like their required minimum distributions,
25:30
Speaker 3: like their Wroth conversions.
25:31
Speaker 4: It makes sense make sure that.
25:32
Speaker 3: We're taking a long term forward outlook on what comes
25:36
Speaker 3: next for all of this. Again, if you have questions
25:39
Speaker 3: like that, you can go to Armstrong Advisory dot com
25:41
Speaker 3: to book a time for us to call you back,
25:43
Speaker 3: or the number is eight hundred three nine three for
25:46
Speaker 3: zero zero one.
25:47
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
25:50
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
25:52
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
25:56
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
25:58
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
26:01
Speaker 1: advisory services.
26:03
Speaker 2: Mike, I saw this story and I had to get
26:05
Speaker 2: to it. Restaurants are pitching water as a fine dining experience,
26:10
Speaker 2: but fed's got a hike.
26:14
Speaker 4: But like paying for fancy water, what do we like?
26:18
Speaker 2: Water menus like bottled water menus and stuff like that
26:22
Speaker 2: from like Saratoga, and like, oh, you could have this one,
26:26
Speaker 2: or you could have this one, and this one goes
26:27
Speaker 2: well with this meal, and this one goes well with
26:30
Speaker 2: this meal. No, it doesn't. It's water. It's water. H two.
26:34
Speaker 2: Oh god, are we that bored and dull?
26:38
Speaker 5: I'm going to become a water Somalia.
26:40
Speaker 4: Can you imagine an aquaya?
26:45
Speaker 2: I like it.
26:47
Speaker 3: This is not a hit at people that choose to
26:50
Speaker 3: not consume alcohol or anything like that. That's not what
26:52
Speaker 3: I'm going for you.
26:53
Speaker 2: But.
26:55
Speaker 3: Goes well with the RIBBI in terms of your nuanced
26:58
Speaker 3: water selection that you need to have multiple it's sparkling, bottled,
27:06
Speaker 3: or tap. Those are your three options. You can usually
27:09
Speaker 3: do it just two. And that's the extent of your
27:13
Speaker 3: water options that need to exist. In my humble opinion,
27:16
Speaker 3: sorry to all the water somlier's out there.
27:19
Speaker 2: Now here's the thing, Like Mike, I think we can
27:21
Speaker 2: all agree though there are waters that taste better and worse. Yeah,
27:25
Speaker 2: that's fair.
27:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've had this explain to me, and I'll tell
27:31
Speaker 3: you when I open up a cold bottle of water,
27:34
Speaker 3: I don't generally care, but yes, I have heard some
27:36
Speaker 3: people say, like, oh, I can't drink pulland Springs or
27:39
Speaker 3: Dasani because of the like I can't stand with some
27:44
Speaker 3: form of the chemistry in there.
27:46
Speaker 2: And I've never really no, no, I don't buy that, but
27:48
Speaker 2: I do know if I'm ever in the southeastern part
27:51
Speaker 2: of the United States, Oh, you happen to come across
27:53
Speaker 2: a bottle of Zephyr Hills, I'm like, run for the
27:55
Speaker 2: Zephyr Hills, you know, Like stuff's not great, but that's
28:01
Speaker 2: neither here nor is there.
28:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's an out that one's out there.
28:05
Speaker 2: Chuck. Yeah again, Like fed's got a hike if you
28:09
Speaker 2: got like water menus at restaurants, policies to loose well.
28:15
Speaker 3: Then how about just this metric that market Watch has
28:18
Speaker 3: their eye on. Sales at US bars and restaurants have
28:21
Speaker 3: risen six and a half percent over the last twelve months,
28:23
Speaker 3: uh ending in August. We've mentioned this before. That's up
28:27
Speaker 3: from four point three percent the previous year. And so
28:30
Speaker 3: whether they are just looking over their water menu, the
28:34
Speaker 3: fact that sales at bars and restaurants are up six
28:37
Speaker 3: and a half percent, I mean, other than airline tickets,
28:40
Speaker 3: I don't think of a whole lot that's more discretionary
28:43
Speaker 3: than bars and restaurants.
28:45
Speaker 5: Can you guys get on the Wall Street Journal right now?
28:46
Speaker 2: No, Wall Street Journal has been down for the last hour. Okay, yeah,
28:50
Speaker 2: they're down. Market Watches down right now. So the AWS
28:52
Speaker 2: outage is spreading. By the way, Mike, I did confirm
28:55
Speaker 2: Fidelities getting elevated down detector reports. So is Bank of
28:59
Speaker 2: America at the moment as well.
29:01
Speaker 3: I saw the same. So there goes my theory. So
29:04
Speaker 3: it's here's the thing about the Internet.
29:06
Speaker 2: It's all conted, it's wires man and you know.
29:11
Speaker 3: It's what was the center that was just driving the
29:14
Speaker 3: Internet back in the nineties or something like that. Interconnected tubes,
29:20
Speaker 3: interconnected tubes. Yeah, now that's that's the soup tubes idea.
29:24
Speaker 3: But we'll come back to that one quick break here
29:26
Speaker 3: when we come back.
29:28
Speaker 1: Stack Roulette, the Financial Exchange Show podcast drops every day
29:32
Speaker 1: on Apple, Spotify, and iHeartRadio. Hit that subscribe button and
29:36
Speaker 1: leave us a five star review. You're listening to the
29:39
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network. The Financial Exchange is Life on
29:44
Speaker 1: Series XM's Business radio channel one thirty two weekdays from
29:48
Speaker 1: eleven to noon. Get the latest business and financial news
29:51
Speaker 1: from across the country and around the world, and keep
29:54
Speaker 1: up to date on how it might affect your wallet.
29:57
Speaker 1: That's the Financial Exchange weekdays from eleven to noon on
30:00
Speaker 1: Series XM's Business Radio Channel one thirty two. Face He's
30:04
Speaker 1: the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
30:12
Speaker 3: Time for a bit of stack Roulette here on the
30:15
Speaker 3: Financial Exchange. And CNBC has a piece today about the
30:19
Speaker 3: best and worst months to buy a house, and they're
30:22
Speaker 3: saying that the difference could save you twenty three thousand dollars.
30:25
Speaker 3: So here's what they're actually talking about. In January, it
30:29
Speaker 3: is statistically the cheapest month for home sales, meaning the
30:33
Speaker 3: price per square foot hits the lowest level in the
30:36
Speaker 3: month of January which does make some sense given the
30:39
Speaker 3: fact that most people aren't shopping in January, and if
30:42
Speaker 3: your home is still for sale in January, it might
30:45
Speaker 3: speak of some degree of desperation to sell that house.
30:48
Speaker 3: I would counter with the idea of is this actually useful.
30:54
Speaker 3: I can think of one group this is actually useful for.
30:56
Speaker 3: If you are some sort of home flipper or you know,
31:00
Speaker 3: constantly buying homes to rent out some big real estate tycoon,
31:04
Speaker 3: then I can see how this would be valuable. But
31:07
Speaker 3: for the average person who's maybe going to buy two
31:10
Speaker 3: to three homes in their entire lifetime, I can think
31:14
Speaker 3: of different things that are more important than trying to
31:18
Speaker 3: find the deal on the very few properties that are
31:20
Speaker 3: actually for sale in January. And so if you're out
31:23
Speaker 3: there waiting to buy that next home because you're waiting
31:26
Speaker 3: for that stage of life, I cannot say enough that
31:28
Speaker 3: I think this is a stupid strategy. You should be
31:32
Speaker 3: focusing on. This is what I need out of a
31:35
Speaker 3: home where I'm going to spend probably multi decades of
31:39
Speaker 3: my life, and so these are the number of beds
31:43
Speaker 3: and baths that I need. This is the neighborhood that
31:45
Speaker 3: I'm looking for, or the type of neighborhood that I'm
31:47
Speaker 3: looking for, and most importantly, this is what I can afford.
31:50
Speaker 3: And if if you find a home that matches those
31:53
Speaker 3: criteria what I need in the neighborhood that I want,
31:58
Speaker 3: plus a price point with a monthly payment that I
32:00
Speaker 3: can actually afford and sustainably afford, like I'm not doing
32:03
Speaker 3: some sort of crazy balloon payment or adjustable rate mortgage
32:07
Speaker 3: that could shoot.
32:08
Speaker 4: Up in the other direction. Then buy the house.
32:11
Speaker 3: Don't wait for it to go on sale in January,
32:13
Speaker 3: maybe because guess what, it's especially in the market here
32:17
Speaker 3: in the Northeast, probably going to sell. I think this
32:20
Speaker 3: might be useful information. Like I said, if you're some
32:22
Speaker 3: sort of home flipper and you actually have the ability
32:24
Speaker 3: to time out things, then yeah, sure, okay, maybe this
32:28
Speaker 3: is useful. But I see pieces like this all the time, like, oh,
32:31
Speaker 3: here's how you should buy your first home. It's like, no,
32:34
Speaker 3: probably not. Do you want to relocate your kids midway
32:38
Speaker 3: through the school year as another factor to consider on
32:40
Speaker 3: this one. So, of course prices are lowest in January.
32:43
Speaker 3: Don't use that as a guideline for where to buy
32:45
Speaker 3: your home. If you have an investment property and that's
32:48
Speaker 3: your business. Maybe that's a different story, Tucker. What you
32:50
Speaker 3: have for sacred life?
32:51
Speaker 5: Well, Mike, you have kids. I have kids, and I
32:54
Speaker 5: got to ask the question, are they in the frenzy
32:58
Speaker 5: that is and continues to be for decades of Pokemon?
33:01
Speaker 2: No the boo boos.
33:03
Speaker 3: Yes, but Pokemon, at least with my kids, is relegated
33:07
Speaker 3: to the boys in their class and not as enthusiastic
33:10
Speaker 3: amongst the girls.
33:11
Speaker 5: Okay, So when I was growing up in uh, I
33:14
Speaker 5: don't know, second or third grade and trying to fit
33:17
Speaker 5: in awkwardly, I was forced into looking into buying Pokemon
33:22
Speaker 5: cards because all the cool kids had it.
33:24
Speaker 2: Correct.
33:24
Speaker 5: I went to a KB Toys and I went to
33:27
Speaker 5: the counter and I asked for Pokemon set. I had
33:30
Speaker 5: no idea what they were really and the guy just
33:33
Speaker 5: pretty much laughed in my face because they were just
33:36
Speaker 5: sold out. Well it continues to be the case still
33:39
Speaker 5: to this day. Uh And not just Pokemon.
33:41
Speaker 2: Love artificial shortages like this, yeah, good moves.
33:45
Speaker 5: Not just Pokemon. The sports, true sports cards are are booming.
33:50
Speaker 2: Now.
33:50
Speaker 5: We've seen all the the Tom Brady investment in card Vault,
33:54
Speaker 5: and you've seen those card Vault shops.
33:58
Speaker 3: I knew about the Pokemon thing. I was not familiar
34:00
Speaker 3: with trading cards for sports.
34:02
Speaker 5: Again, Taylor Swift is also in that category as well.
34:06
Speaker 3: And what do you mean what does she do? Apparently
34:08
Speaker 3: category I'm seeing now Taylor Swift card. But their stats
34:12
Speaker 3: on it apparently well, I don't know if there's stats
34:14
Speaker 3: on it, but there are some sort of cards.
34:16
Speaker 4: How much money she made on the Aras tour.
34:19
Speaker 5: It's just on the back, just like a you know,
34:22
Speaker 5: oh yo batting average.
34:24
Speaker 3: I would love some awesome t Swifts to be printed
34:27
Speaker 3: on a card.
34:28
Speaker 2: Well.
34:29
Speaker 5: This according to CNBC, sales of collectible trading cards like
34:33
Speaker 5: Pokemon and sports sets are surging, with Target reporting a
34:37
Speaker 5: seventy percent year to date increase in expecting over one
34:41
Speaker 5: billion dollars in annual revenue from that category. And you
34:46
Speaker 5: see more and more retailers like Target and Walmart trying
34:50
Speaker 5: to increase their inventory of these trading cards, whether it's
34:53
Speaker 5: sports or in pop culture or entertainment ahead of the
34:57
Speaker 5: holiday season.
34:58
Speaker 4: Here, I'll tell.
34:59
Speaker 2: You what you all right?
35:00
Speaker 4: I'm what's your name? It's very Thomas, Thomas and Charles.
35:06
Speaker 3: The water story was Chuck's over exuberant story.
35:11
Speaker 4: This is mine fed's got a hike.
35:12
Speaker 3: If if we're getting back into you know, infatuation with
35:15
Speaker 3: what's next, NFTs are we're gonna get get to see
35:19
Speaker 3: a JPEG image computer generated generated image.
35:23
Speaker 4: See it surge again, Like this.
35:25
Speaker 3: Is not the type of stuff that you see in
35:28
Speaker 3: an economy that's on the cusp of recessions. So FED,
35:32
Speaker 3: who is probably going to cut rates in a week,
35:35
Speaker 3: beware of stuff like this. Speaking of things that are
35:39
Speaker 3: going to drive prices higher. Runaway insurance costs are surging
35:43
Speaker 3: across the nation. We've covered this quite a bit. Some
35:46
Speaker 3: of the worst rates increases that we have seen include Colorado, Louisiana, Florida, Minnesota.
35:53
Speaker 3: This is something that is honestly equally dispersed across the
35:57
Speaker 3: country and somewhat random in terms of where it goes. Currently,
36:01
Speaker 3: eleven states regulate the ability for insurance companies to increase
36:08
Speaker 3: rates on their homeowners. So the states include Alabama, California, Hawaii, Mississippi,
36:15
Speaker 3: New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota. They can only reject
36:18
Speaker 3: them if it's an increase of five percent or more
36:20
Speaker 3: in North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, where it has to
36:23
Speaker 3: be seven percent or more Washington and West Virginia, and
36:26
Speaker 3: you'd better believe that lawmakers in other states are going
36:31
Speaker 3: to jump on this bandwagon. And here is lawmakers, I
36:36
Speaker 3: think frequently come up with solutions to problems that are
36:40
Speaker 3: not wise economically. But I can assure you there is
36:44
Speaker 3: only one eventual outcome should state ensure state insurance regulators
36:50
Speaker 3: refuse price increases, which is what is happening across the
36:54
Speaker 3: country right now, is insurance companies are you know, jacking
36:58
Speaker 3: rates up ten fifteen percent in many cases, and the
37:03
Speaker 3: regulators are saying, no, pump the brakes. We're not gonna
37:05
Speaker 3: let you get away with it. There's only one outcome there,
37:08
Speaker 3: which is insurers are going to disappear from that market.
37:11
Speaker 3: So what do price caps?
37:13
Speaker 2: Do? They lead to shortages?
37:15
Speaker 3: We are very familiar with this when it comes to
37:17
Speaker 3: things like rent control or price caps on groceries. We
37:21
Speaker 3: are less familiar with it when it comes to insurance.
37:24
Speaker 3: But the same thesis applies. So again, I know, nobody
37:29
Speaker 3: likes to see their insurance rates go up. It's not
37:31
Speaker 3: happening because companies are greedy. Of course, companies are greedy,
37:35
Speaker 3: but it's not the cause. It's not the root cause.
37:37
Speaker 3: Behind rates going up. The root cause is the risk
37:40
Speaker 3: is getting a lot higher for all of us from
37:42
Speaker 3: homeowners and car insurance, car insurance both because the replacement
37:46
Speaker 3: costs are higher and more natural disasters. And so guess
37:49
Speaker 3: what rates are going up, And if your state tries
37:51
Speaker 3: to limit it, then you're going to see those insurers
37:54
Speaker 3: step out of those states like you've seen in the
37:56
Speaker 3: health insurance and auto and home insurance rates. All the
38:00
Speaker 3: time we have for the financial exchange today, but we're
38:02
Speaker 3: back at it tomorrow. Dow, SMP and NAZAC all strongly
38:05
Speaker 3: in positive territory. We'll have a full recap for you,
38:08
Speaker 3: amongst other things, tomorrow.
38:09
Speaker 2: Tune in