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Why EVERY Bitcoin Price Prediction is WRONG | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

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  When I tell someone out in the wild that Bitcoin can reach
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  $1,000,000, they typically laugh at me.
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  If I were to tell them ten years ago that Bitcoin could reach
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  $100,000, they'd probably do the same. $100,000 feels like an
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  impossible number. Yet here we are.
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  And that number happened. In fact, today as I'm recording
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  this video, you always have to preface at the time of this
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  recording, Bitcoin is at 100 and 7899.
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  And that's not even the all time high.
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  But in 2010 someone out there believed the Bitcoin would hit
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  $100,000 and they were called crazy by the skeptics.
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  You want to be rich, don't you? Oh yeah, sure, right.
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  That's rich. You're going to make me rich.
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  They were laughed at, but their price prediction wasn't wrong.
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  What they didn't tell you and what they could not tell you is
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  the path to getting there. To that 100K.
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  The price came true, but the path was unthinkable.
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  So when we're talking about $1,000,000 Bitcoin, we are on
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  the path, but we don't know the road.
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  We haven't seen the road to get there.
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  Hey Doc, we've. Got to back.
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  Up. We don't have.
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  Enough Rd. To get up to 80. 8.
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  Roads where? We're going.
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  We don't. Need roads?
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  Bank failures, lockdowns, pandemics, hash rate crashes and
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  whole nation's changing course on all kinds of issues including
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  Bitcoin. The path that Bitcoin is taking
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  in the next 16 years is setting up to be even more unpredictable
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  than the ones between 2009 and 2025.
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  Now, if you are new to Bitcoin or you're a seasoned 10 year
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  Bitcoin hodler, no altcoins toxic maxi boy stick around till
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  the end of this video. I bet you'll get something out
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  of it. And my prediction is 100 million
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  trillion dollar Bitcoin right now tomorrow I'm oceans, I'm
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  oceans, I'm oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin.
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  Let's dive into price predictions.
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  Bitcoin. Insider Adam Back.
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  Just updated his 2025. Bitcoin price prediction.
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  I think $100,000 is way too cheap.
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  Rather than doing a 22X, we only do an 11X.
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  What's your Bitcoin price prediction for the next 5 years?
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  $1.3 million has arrived at a prediction.
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  Of 10. $1,000,000 per Bitcoin by 2040. 5.
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  I think we're going to be $21 million in 21 years.
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  Large price targets feel good even before they happen.
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  All you have to do is say some sort of big number.
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  I could say 1 billion. And that just made you feel a
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  billion times better, didn't it? 1 billion.
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  I don't even have to say what it is of a billion.
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  I just say 1 billion. The warm buzz we get when
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  dreaming about $1 million Bitcoin isn't so much the money,
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  but it's the possibility. It's the possibility of the
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  money. Neuroscientists call that buzz a
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  dopamine anticipation Spike in a Click by Andrew Huberman says
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  dopamine isn't about the reward itself, it's about the
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  expectation of the reward. Check this clip out.
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  Think the reward is coming and it doesn't.
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  You drop below baseline levels of dopamine.
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  That's why you should never tell someone that this restaurant's
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  going to be the best restaurant you've ever been to in your
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  life. Exactly.
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  So I think the key is to to leverage dopamine reward
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  prediction error in the best way.
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  It's the surprise that you know, if you take kids, you're driving
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  home from school and suddenly you pull into the ice cream
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  shop, they're going to be so ecstatic.
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  But if you tell them you're going to go to the ice cream
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  shop and it's closed, huge drop below baseline.
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  Does that mean if you tell them that you're going to the ice
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  cream shop and it's open, that's less than not telling them
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  you're going to the ice cream shop and it's surprise?
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  Correct, it's it's they literally tear out into maximum
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  surprises. The maximum dopamine release,
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  then successful completion of the missions as it were is the
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  next and then unsuccessful. You can only create positive
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  anticipation so many times and then create a let down before
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  completion that the prompt delivery of the promise has very
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  little impact. And so you have to be very
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  careful with one's words. Better to say nothing than to
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  let somebody down for sure in the context of human
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  relationship. But if you reward without effort
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  or without success, that is devastating for a nervous
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  system. In fact, I've gone a record and
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  I'll say it again and again and again, which is that dopamine
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  that arrives without prior effort destroys people.
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  This is this is drugs, this is, you know, this is things like
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  cocaine and amphetamine. It's high levels of dopamine
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  with no effort. OK, they had to buy it.
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  They had to find it. They did whatever it, but that's
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  no, there's no physical effort or mental effort involved in
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  getting the dopamine peak. This is why hard work followed
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  by reward, great. Working hard on a relationship
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  and then it gets better. There's a breakthrough, whatever
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  it is. The bigger the promised reward,
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  the stronger the spike. So if I promise you a billion,
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  you're already spiking up to a billion.
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  That's how we're all wired. So when someone tweets out that
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  Bitcoin is going to a million, the chemistry is instantaneous,
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  the heart rate nudges up, the attention locks in, and hope
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  feels close enough to touch. Now and then we'll see a chart
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  that will light up our feeds, and we'll call for 10X by
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  Christmas or 20X by the halving. We call these moon calls by moon
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  boys. Moon calls by Moon boys.
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  I'd listen to that album anyway. These calls, they sound bold,
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  almost reckless, but they pull people in like a spotlight.
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  On a dark Rd. like myself, I thought I was going to make a
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  lot of money. I thought I was going to make a
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  lot of Fiat dollars when I first entered this space, but it turns
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  out I was just losing all my Fiat dollars.
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  That's what really happened. So you come for the Fiat dollars
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  and you leave with no Fiat dollars.
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  Mark was down 800 yesterday, 550 today.
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  What's going to happen tomorrow? What's going to happen over the
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  next year, over the next three years?
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  And the answer is nobody knows. And I don't believe in
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  forecasts, Another one of my heroes, John Kenneth Galbraith,
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  said. We have two kinds of
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  forecasters, the ones who don't know and the ones who don't
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  know, they don't know. And I am firmly in the first
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  camp. I don't know what's going to
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  happen in the future. And what I say is we never know
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  where we're going, but we sure as hell ought to know where we
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  are. First lesson I remember learning
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  at Warden was that you can't tell the quality of a decision
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  from the outcome. Now this is a counterintuitive
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  and in fact perplexing. And most people who who are not
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  analytical or insightful would say, well of course you can.
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  Good decisions work, bad decisions fail.
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  But the truth of the matter is that in the world there are a
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  lot of things that are unpredictable and random, and as
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  a result, good decisions fail all the time and bad decisions
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  succeed all the time. And we all know people, we say,
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  oh, he he was right for the wrong reason, or he was lucky,
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  or he was unlucky. The danger is simple.
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  The chemical rush we get has nothing to say about how we
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  actually get there or what the journey might even cost along
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  the way. Enjoy the crazy predictions and
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  the excitement you get from them for sure.
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  Remember the the feeling is just a promise, not a plan member go
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  up Technology is the entryway or the entry ramp onto the road to
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  Bitcoin euphoria. The promise is pretty powerful.
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  A chance to leapfrog years of slow saving.
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  It's why your friends finally download that exchange app even
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  when the prices are too high. But a moon call is still only
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  just a weather forecast made with the data and the mood of
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  the day. A price prediction is the
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  headline of a story that hasn't been written.
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  It tells us in the last page that Bitcoin hits 1,000,000, but
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  it skips every single chapter from here to there.
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  Those missing chapters could take years.
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  They hold recessions, elections, trade wars, energy shocks and
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  smaller, quieter things too. A lost job, a new baby, a health
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  scare. The journey from today's price
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  to any moon shot number is less like a straight ramp and more
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  like hiking a Ridge in a thick fog.
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  You only see the next few steps ahead of you.
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  Capital coming into the space will matter, Yes.
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  It's so old. Things that money can't
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  schedule, like the political calm we get from our current
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  administration, energy breakthroughs, public trust.
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  These things account for a lot of what the price is doing.
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  But stuff that's happened in the past 11 months has been
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  extraordinary. The White House has embraced
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  Bitcoin. This is an extraordinary
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  development. We didn't anticipate this.
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  We, we hoped that we would get a favorable administration and we
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  hope we get support. And we had this inkling.
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  But November 5th brought a sea change in politics.
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  And, and although we thought we might have a pro Bitcoin
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  president, we didn't think we get a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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  We didn't think that the president would say America will
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  be the Bitcoin superpower of the world.
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  This is an amazing development. The new administration JD Vance
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  pro Bitcoin Robert F Kennedy pro Bitcoin Tulsi Gabbard pro
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  Bitcoin Kelly Loffler pro Bitcoin Paul Atkins pro Bitcoin
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  Brian Contest pro Bitcoin Scott Ben Besant pro Bitcoin David
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  Sachs. A new position, Cabinet level
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  position, not just pro Bitcoin. A cabinet member that would go
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  on television and say Bitcoin is the one decentralized crypto
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  network in the world. It is special.
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  It is the digital commodity, right?
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  The one thing that we've all known.
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  But a cabinet member in the United States government says
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  it. He said it in March of this
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  year. We also can't account for what
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  the price is doing because of paper Bitcoin.
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  This is a whole separate topic, and you can check it out in this
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  video right here. Wherever it lands.
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  There's also another factor that we're not really thinking about
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  when we do price predictions, and that is what will the price
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  actually mean if it comes true in that time?
• 11:05
  And relive Biff's happiest moment.
• 11:07
  As in 19. 73 He. Realized his lifelong romantic
• 11:10
  dream by marrying. His high school.
• 11:12
  Sweetheart Lorraine Baines McFly Third time's a charm.
• 11:21
  Quick pause. If you'd actually like to earn
• 11:23
  Bitcoin instead of just watching charts and looking at the moon
• 11:27
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• 11:31
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• 11:35
  the hardware and sends the SAS straight to you.
• 11:38
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• 11:40
  mining.com and you can find out how you can start mining today
• 11:44
  and not have to go through all the hardware and all the
• 11:49
  electricity costs that are associated with mining and just
• 11:53
  get sat straight to a wallet. Start mining today at SAS
• 11:58
  mining.com. A price target is easy to share
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  for a future timeline, but the world that that price will live
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  in now, that part stays blank. I did say 250,000 by the end of
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  this year but you go out 10 years and the answer is Infinity
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  against the dollar. 250K sounds life changing to many but what
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  if a gallon of milk costs $40 by the time we get there?
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  How many gallons of milk can I buy with 1250K Bitcoin?
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  I can buy 6250 gallons of milk with one Bitcoin anyway.
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  That's why the money printer matters.
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  We don't know what world of prices we're going to be in when
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  these moon shot predictions come into play.
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  As long as I can use Fiat currency to buy my, buy my
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  lunch, buy my drink at the bar, I'm going to use the Fiat
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  currency and I'm going to save the good money, which is the
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  Bitcoin. Why would I spend the good
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  money? Now we have a perfect way to
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  understand this. In the United States, of course,
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  we have coins and we have quarters and Dimes.
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  Up till 1965 these were made out of pure silver.
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  Starting in 1965 they made them with junk metal.
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  That's nickel and copper. You cannot find in America a pre
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  65 quarter or dime in circulation.
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  They're all gone. They were driven out.
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  If you just so happened to get some change and you found a pre
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  65 quarter and dime, you would not spend it.
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  Why? Because 1/4 now is worth $4.00,
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  but you'd only get $0.25 for it. If you want to know what Bitcoin
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  is worth in the future, then you're going to have to ask
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  yourself what you will be able to buy with that Bitcoin in the
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  future. It's not just zeros on a screen.
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  What about energy, your food, or an hour of someone's labor?
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  What will that be worth? Before you go, are you thinking
• 13:58
  about building out your own sovereignty stack?
• 14:00
  You know, sovereignty isn't just about holding your own keys,
• 14:04
  it's also about keeping that signal when everyone else has
• 14:07
  lost theirs. When the grid goes down, which
• 14:09
  has been happening a lot, most people go dark.
• 14:12
  But with a satellite phone from SAT 123, you can stay connected
• 14:16
  no matter what. Whether you're a prepper or a
• 14:19
  wannabe prepper like me. Maybe you're a rancher or just,
• 14:22
  you know, someone who's paying attention.
• 14:24
  There's a lot of crazy stuff going on in the world, am I
• 14:26
  right? Now is the time to be prepared.
• 14:28
  Stop the last moments of this episode right now and go to
• 14:31
  sat123.com/simply Bitcoin. Or if you are more familiar with
• 14:37
  a phone, you can call 866-621-9477.
• 14:42
  You can mention Simply Bitcoin over the phone, or you can use
• 14:45
  the promo code simply for 15% off.
• 14:48
  Stay connected, stay independent, and most
• 14:51
  importantly, stay sovereign emotions.
• 14:53
  This is beyond Bitcoin. Thank you so much for watching.
• 14:56
  If you really like this content or if you just liked it a little
• 14:59
  bit, make sure you hit that like button below.
• 15:02
  Subscribe to the Simply Bitcoin channel for more content like
• 15:05
  this. We're coming out with it every
• 15:06
  single day and you can hit that notification bell, get updates
• 15:10
  on more content that comes out. And I predict that I'll see you
• 15:15
  in another bit. Well, I won't see you because
• 15:16
  I'm looking at a camera, right? But you'll see me in another
• 15:20
  video. I predict.
• 15:23
  I predict it. It's going to happen.
• 15:26
  And if you don't, then you did click on that thumbnail and you
• 15:29
  were thinking ahead. Until next time.
• 15:32
  See you later, guys. Bye.