Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 15 DFS Review Show | December 18, 2023 | DraftKings DFS Lineup Review and Analysis
Transcript
- 0:05All system's gone clear the lift up? What's up? Everyone? Tyler Tamberline
- 0:38here aka Totag and Tambo back for the review show Week fifteen. DFS is
- 0:43gonna break things all down from the Sunday slate. Look at the twenty dollars
- 0:47million maker, look at the perfect lineup, check out the wildcat this week
- 0:50and the three thirty three. Shout out to all these winners, go through
- 0:53it. There, got my guy Nads with me. As always, want
- 0:55to remind everyone very quickly off the top of this show is brought to you
- 0:58and presented by Limestone. If you haven't yet done so on the season,
- 1:00you can go over to line Star app dot com use the promo code ship
- 1:04it. You can check it out. There's all kinds of sports over there
- 1:07they cover. We'll bring it up here in a second, but also want
- 1:10to remind everyone very quickly before I bring naids and this will be our last
- 1:14review show of the season. We'd mentioned the last couple of weeks we're here.
- 1:18It sucks. It's the way it goes. But with the way this
- 1:21year is, there's Christmas next Monday, the New Year's Day is the week
- 1:25after, and then you get sorted to the end of the season anyway,
- 1:26and then PGA is coming back and all that. So it's been a fun
- 1:30season breaking this all down, Neids. Happy to be here with you.
- 1:32We made it, got through to the final review show of the season.
- 1:34We're going to go through. There's some good ones, and I think yesterday
- 1:38is a really good day to review because a lot of sharper players made their
- 1:42way to the top. So how did they see the slate differently than myself?
- 1:46Yourself? Others? Things like that. We can always dive in and
- 1:48have a look. How you doing, my friend? What's going on on
- 1:49this fine Monday morning? Yeah, fine Monday, busy Monday as always.
- 1:53Obviously we got everything going on. All these sports throw everything together on the
- 1:57same day. But hey, that's that's good for us as content providers and
- 2:01good for the community here. But overall Sunday it was fun. Packers.
- 2:06Man, I'm just beating my head against the wall. These guys just lost
- 2:08back to back must win games here. It is a rebuilding the year.
- 2:12Whatever you want to say, right, but man, Jordan Love looked promising
- 2:15for us. I know you were on the same Love stack I was on.
- 2:19Obviously, our tools will show the case those a little bit. They
- 2:22were on the Love stack. He did pick up more of that stack,
- 2:23picked up more ownership than anticipated. But obviously Tampa pass funnel right, Green
- 2:29Bay at Home. Everyone says Love sucks. Love sucks, but he's got
- 2:31multiple twenty point performances. I mean, he's got like one game under fifteen
- 2:37DraftKings points all season, and he's never priced over like sixty two hundred,
- 2:40So people can say what they want about Love. I'm excited. I think
- 2:45he's going to be solid. Obviously, he's a rookie, right first,
- 2:47first kind of first, kind of go at it right, So definitely excited
- 2:52for that. But yeah, not the greatest week for me. Hopefully I'll
- 2:53get it back tonight. Obviously the week fifteen is not over yet, So
- 2:57if you didn't have the greatest week, like myself, we can win it
- 3:00back tonight and it only takes one right. Yeah, this show, the
- 3:06Love thing is so crazy because remember we had yesterday In the show, people
- 3:08were saying, I know, everyone's hard on everybody. I was at a
- 3:10Christmas event yesterday with family and it was fun and all that, but like
- 3:15everyone there is to talk about. Every quarterback gets nitpicked down to something,
- 3:19Oh he's not good enough at this, or he's overrated at that, or
- 3:21whatever it might be. All we talk about and care about is in relation
- 3:24to daily fantasy sports. We have other conversations amongst our community and as friends
- 3:30and with families and things like that about actual skill level and talent. My
- 3:34never Mahomes thing again, never Mahomes. If you did stack him up yesterday,
- 3:37he didn't show up anywhere again, but you would have needed him with
- 3:39cech and McKinnon lineup. So evenf you built a thousand, you didn't land
- 3:44on those lineups. That's my point about that one. But as a quarterback,
- 3:46best in the league probably right you go back on these debates with love.
- 3:51He has nine games on the season at of fifteen weeks where he scored
- 3:54over eighteen DraftKings points. Six of them over of those nine are over twenty
- 4:00and five of them are over twenty two. Like when you're getting a guy
- 4:03at six K every week, give or take that to me, is what
- 4:05it's all about. That's what we're trying to dive into and find out.
- 4:09And that's why it's not about the point total on the game all the time
- 4:13and all these other things that we always have harped on all season long and
- 4:15know we're getting to an end. You're the last show. But just to
- 4:16break it all down and then shout out to Sean, shout out to everybody
- 4:20here, Tweezy, justin, Nick Rantce, all you guys that always stop
- 4:25buying are here for either first in or joining us each and every week.
- 4:28But hope it comes back next season. I'm posted it up. But this
- 4:30show will always be back. This is a stable for us, obviously.
- 4:33It's exactly what we focus on and talk about all the time with process over.
- 4:38Just pick some plays, trying to get better and dig in and work
- 4:40on our own games. We're all trying to get to the same spot,
- 4:43get better together. That's what this community at Shipping Nation is all about.
- 4:46If you guys do want to get in one code that still stands behind.
- 4:49If you guys want to get over to ship a Nation and get in right
- 4:53now with NBA NHL PGA is just around the corner. Actually, if you
- 4:56sign up for a month right now, it will include the There's two events
- 5:00coming up at the start of January and that's when the season kicks off.
- 5:03There's an event every week after that. I'm saying you'd get two events included
- 5:06within this, but you can use the code Mayo. It gets you ten
- 5:10percent off over at ship at nation dot com. Naids, I'm gonna bring
- 5:13it up and have a look. Nick says here McLaurin finally paid his tab.
- 5:17McCaffrey didn't completely break the slate. I would say McCaffrey book the slate.
- 5:20He scored almost fifty points, so again a nice like thirty plus,
- 5:26but forty four point seven gets the job done. I think my exact words
- 5:29in the slate plan were we've been happy to take him at this price for
- 5:32his floor of eighteen to twenty two. But there's gonna be another week coming
- 5:35up soon where he gets you that thirty five plus, and it's gonna be
- 5:39needed. In this case, it was this week forty four point seven.
- 5:43James Cook, we talked about the last couple of weeks will bring him up.
- 5:45I got some other interesting things I'll bring up as well, but just
- 5:47the grand scheme overview for you, nads. We did get the late news
- 5:51on Sunday as I go to screen share hair here about Tyreek Hill, right,
- 5:57that was kind of a big deal that we were, you know,
- 5:59having to adapt to late. Everyone was getting the Tyreek Hill news Do we
- 6:01go to? But a Chan was in do we go to moster a Chan?
- 6:05Do we go to Wattle? Wattle ended up being like three percent in
- 6:10there? So where where was your head at when you were coming off of
- 6:12this like yesterday and some of the news we got late and how people had
- 6:15happened to it or did not? Yeah? Yeah, so yeah. The
- 6:18one thing that I know is right to Marcus Robinson coming in before that news
- 6:23tit was supposed to be right mega chalk. He did still obviously get there.
- 6:28When we review some of these lineups, like the million Maker, he
- 6:30did find his way into the optimal there at thirty six hundred. I didn't
- 6:33really like that play a ton with Tyler Higbee back, but a lot of
- 6:38people did jump off of him and go to other value plays, whether they
- 6:41moved to Wandell Robinson, which likely some of it did, and then some
- 6:45of it moved to Cedric Wilson. Obviously with that Tyreek Hill news, right
- 6:47Cedric Wilson slot and in with no Tyreek Hill. The interesting point for me
- 6:51was Wattle's ownership didn't move at all, and obviously Wattle did did his thing,
- 6:57his little penguin waddle into the end zone right gave the modified peace sign
- 7:00after he burned the dude down the down the sideline and just tiptoed his way
- 7:03to the end zone there after getting hurt, everyone thought they were still dead
- 7:08right right away. Typical Watta goes out in the first quarter, comes back
- 7:11and just nukes. So that, yeah, that was interesting. The Moster
- 7:15thing was interesting as well, right I I still stayed with Mostard. I
- 7:18had some Mostert in one of my main teams and then one of the early
- 7:24only teams because I knew there, I mean, I didn't think they were
- 7:28going to have a trouble trouble in this game at all. Winning this They're
- 7:30not gonna push eight chan, right they need eight chan down the stretch here.
- 7:35Most AT's still a very capable running back, So I stuck with Mostert.
- 7:40Obviously, his ownership did come up a little bit with that uh Tyreek
- 7:44Hill news. He was projected like below five percent, got to about eight
- 7:48percent almost in the million maker, so really not a ton I mean,
- 7:51eight percent versus three percent really doesn't make a ton of difference. So just
- 7:57goes to show sometimes late news makes people jump off of the old or the
- 8:05value plays that everyone was kind of focusing on before that news. We see
- 8:09in the NBA all the time, right, the shiny new toy, the
- 8:11shiny new value. Everyone jumps on that, but forgets about, Hey,
- 8:15the good plays before that news are still good plays. Just because that news
- 8:18hit doesn't make those guys also not good plays anymore. So just late news
- 8:22obviously affects a lot of that stuff. And I guess the takeaway for me
- 8:26is it's not always the shiny new toy that you need to jump on,
- 8:30right, you have a process, you have a play, and those guys
- 8:35that you were looking at before, if they were good plays before that news,
- 8:39this is a totally different team, totally different scenario. It doesn't make
- 8:41those bad plays now just because something else opens up. So just being able
- 8:46to weigh that and just realizing that is something interesting, because obviously it did
- 8:50shift ownership a decent amount across multiple different guys, because Wanda picked up a
- 8:54lot more ownership as well, I believe because of that. Yeah, And
- 8:58I think to uh, what you brought a really good point there at the
- 9:01end, especially because we talked about this a lot with the NBA education course.
- 9:05The NBA get a ton of late news, injury stuff, last minute
- 9:07scratches. I know everyone's to play. Obviously, the worst is when it's
- 9:11after lock, but I'm talking about even before lock. You just mentioned about
- 9:13the shiny new toy where you just everybody jumps to something. Remember, it's
- 9:16almost like we say with the projections. Sometimes you can when you see the
- 9:20highest projection and you say like, I'm gonna trust it. Sometimes you're gonna
- 9:24trust that that means this. So I'm gonna do that and play against it.
- 9:30And the situation you just said is a fine one. There was other
- 9:31good plays that didn't actually get worse. They just became less owned now because
- 9:37people were jumping ship over to a different play. So sometimes you got to
- 9:41remember about those. And then again that's why I always talk about when people
- 9:43bring up you know, one v ones and two v two's and stuff like
- 9:46that in the discord, oftentimes trying to not you know, be direct and
- 9:50just push back and be an idiot about it, just to say like I
- 9:52am trying to help people get better at the actual game, and that's what
- 9:56this is all about. And so My point is, like, when you're
- 9:58comparing that, the answer is probably just go look at the projection, because
- 10:01if you always trust the projection, you can build that into your process so
- 10:05that you know you're not sometimes projection, sometimes gut. But where the experience
- 10:09comes in and actually getting better at the game is saying, Okay, I've
- 10:13got to make this decision based on this current build. If you're a single
- 10:16entry player, it's very easy because now you have one built. If you're
- 10:20a three max player, you're deciding within that build and what you're doing in
- 10:22your others, and if it's an MME and it's through your player pool,
- 10:26you should have rules and things set up anyway to help force these situations into
- 10:28lineups where they would make sense. So certain cheap tight ends might only make
- 10:33sense, like Kate Atten yesterday not of his result, saying the way I
- 10:37might play him is with Baker Mayfield stacks or with Love stacks. I'm not
- 10:39really feeling the one off as much. But maybe he's at least even if
- 10:43he's in a secondary stack with Jaden Reid as a way to pull some of
- 10:48that ownership away, and they're both cheap enough that you could make it work.
- 10:50But the long story to get to is that when you have these things
- 10:54that you're looking at, you do want to kind of consider your overall roster
- 10:58construction and does it make sense with then your build. Is there any correlation
- 11:01that you can find with it? Is there a leverage situation that you can
- 11:05find within it where you don't have this spot covered by a popular play but
- 11:09this guy would be you know, an AYUK instead of a CMC. Obviously
- 11:13it didn't work out, but the point be if you're going off of CMC
- 11:16and you happen to land on AYUK, that can eat the lunch of all
- 11:20those CMC lineups that are out there if it works out. So just a
- 11:22little note on that. We'll talk about the Jets d definitely hurt some people.
- 11:28I still think fine at price. Well, we'll get to it.
- 11:31I know we talked about this and like again, the d's have not been
- 11:33getting out of hand or out of control. We'll see how some other players
- 11:35handled it. But when you also are down Tyreek, it's one thing.
- 11:39The other note that we talked about on the show yesterday that wasn't added thought
- 11:41and I'll talk about when I get to waddle, was that they did get
- 11:45their O line pretty healthy, regardless of you know, outside of the fact
- 11:48they lost their center for the season last week in Williams. So just a
- 11:52note on that, and then there was one more here. I saw it
- 11:56too. I wanted to bring up just because somebody mentioned it here. Where
- 12:01did it go? Brandon? So, hell of your boys can't wait for
- 12:05golf. Golf is gonna be awesome. We've got some more news coming on
- 12:07that, but we just you know, obviously last year, we've got partnerships
- 12:09now with Djen seventy five doing shows with Andy Lack. We've got Lee Aldrich
- 12:15formerly from fan Share doing stuff with the course fit rankings and over there.
- 12:18It's just been an awesome swing season anybody that's been playing it during some of
- 12:20these down events with those course fit rankings and the Value Report and now the
- 12:24tier rankings having Lee in there. Also some of the shows you guys have
- 12:28liked that I've done with DJN now bringing it over to golf. There's gonna
- 12:31be a lot going on with PGA. But just back to this note and
- 12:33the other one, like Nad's, you and I been doing this show all
- 12:37season. You were watching this show and being a part of it seasons before
- 12:39on other sites and things like that. This show is like our least watched
- 12:43viewed inning. It has nothing to do with that. Just so people know,
- 12:46we will never take this show away based on that. It's actually more
- 12:50important. It's a piece of my process that I use every week. I
- 12:52learn a lot from doing this show every single week and diving in and just
- 12:56getting those things top of mind that really do help me weekend. We I
- 13:00don't care if one person watches or hundreds, thousands, whatever end up watching
- 13:03it. It's my favorite show to do because it actually helps me see the
- 13:07slate. I do morning prep to my own stuff coming into this show so
- 13:11I can have ideas for it, and it's gonna be awesome. We're gonna
- 13:13continue to have this show year in year out for NFL, for golf,
- 13:18I think golf. I've talked about this in the past. It's better applied
- 13:22on like Wednesday Night when Andy and I do the show on how to apply
- 13:24the knowledge for the slate versus reverse engineering it, because that's just the result
- 13:30of an individual sport for what happened. I find we get a lot more
- 13:33out of this show with NFL. It's gonna be an awesome set up here.
- 13:37Nate's I got the perfect lineup up, man, So it was brought
- 13:39up from Sean no Rams in the perfect lineup is surprising and just a note
- 13:45before I let you run on this two sixty nine. The actual winner of
- 13:50the twenty dollars was two thirty three this week, so pretty pretty close.
- 13:54I mean thirty points off, give or take and change. But still give
- 13:56me your thoughts on this perfect lineup here with what you've got. Yeah,
- 14:01the No Rams piece is when you got the two high scoring rams seventy eight
- 14:05hundred and seventy five hundred, right, and you look at the perfect lineup,
- 14:07you got guys like James Cook sixty three hundred go off for forty right,
- 14:11you got Godwin at sub six k go off fro almost thirty right,
- 14:13Noah Brown. That's the reason, right, because then it allowed you to
- 14:18throw a defense that's four k. So that's the reason behind that. Obviously,
- 14:22McCaffrey. I don't know how much more he needs to do to break
- 14:24a slate. I consider that breaking a slate when he goes off for for
- 14:28forty five DraftKings points at forty percent ownership. Obviously, I leveraged it with
- 14:33the Au didn't work out, but that's not results oriented, right, just
- 14:37like you brought up Tambau. There's different ways to leverage things. And I
- 14:41did have tons of McCaffrey, but in lineups I didn't play McAffrey. I
- 14:43would still look to leverage it because I knew the ownership coming in the Baker
- 14:48Godwin you brought up to Godwin, right, everyone jumped on kind of Mike
- 14:50Evans and Rashad White where the two people wanted to everyone wanted to go to
- 14:54on Tampa right with no Jaire Alexander. Obviously, Green Bay struggles lot against
- 15:00running backs, where Sean White is basically in every down back for Tampa gets
- 15:03a ton of work out of the backfield, catches passes, gets all the
- 15:07line share of the carries. So obviously he was a great play. But
- 15:11the Chris Godwin came in at one percent ownership, I believe we'll review him.
- 15:15I think once we get to the Wildcat or some other other tournaments.
- 15:18I see some people did go to Godwin one percent for Godwin you like you
- 15:24brought it up on the on the show on Male Media Network on Sunday morning.
- 15:28You said Hey, Godwin's been more getting more involved. He looked good
- 15:31last week. He's sub six k, now, which used to be a
- 15:35slam dunk play, right. I mean people used to see Chris Godwin sub
- 15:39six k and he'd be forty percent owned, right, one percent ownership for
- 15:43that. Obviously, the Noah Brown came back there in that offense. I
- 15:48mean, Terry scary. Terry doesn't get there for fifteen weeks or fourteen weeks
- 15:52in a row. Finally week fifteen, finally week fifteen gets there. So
- 15:56overall, I mean apparently David Najokhu's prime Travis Kelce right now with Flatto under
- 16:02center. So that's another talking point. I mean, this this bill doesn't
- 16:04make a ton of sense outside of the Baker Chris Godwin as leverage on the
- 16:08other side of the Jordan Love game. Right. Obviously, Jordan Love didn't
- 16:11come in super chalky compared to guys in his range, right like Matthew Stafford,
- 16:18but he did get to almost ten percent in the Millie Maker, so
- 16:21he got up there. Baker Mayfield on the flip side of that one percent
- 16:23ownership in a matchup where you expect them to be passing a lot, right,
- 16:29because I thought Green Bay was gonna win the game at home. Not
- 16:33a bias take. It's just playing at home Tampa, traveling on the road,
- 16:37cold weather, everything like that. So the James Cook play does make
- 16:41sense, right with the new offensive coordinator there, he's been, he's been
- 16:45heavily involved. I don't know what happened before he came in there. Who
- 16:48was in there before that didn't see this, But obviously James Cook's the guy
- 16:52there for for Buffalo. It took them a couple of weeks to realize that,
- 16:55and he's nuked every time since then. But the Hunter Henry and n
- 16:59Joe Dolphins defense, things like that. Obviously this is just a perfect lineup.
- 17:03And when the perfect lineups thirty to forty points higher than the million maker,
- 17:07you know, some crazy stuff happens. Yeah, a little less correlation.
- 17:11Stuff to get to do. I'll break it down a little further.
- 17:12You want to shout out so omg Lowles in here with us. Ross always
- 17:17back, Appreciate you, Trevor Bryan in the building, and of course my
- 17:21guy Jerry Matt always working on his stuff his process. Appreciate you sharing last
- 17:23week showed me some stuff he does for his own process. So love to
- 17:27see that all you guys in here with us. A couple notes you mentioned,
- 17:30like you know some things that you could take away for sure. Again
- 17:33not getting to this myself, but like someone said it here, Ross had
- 17:37it the payoff defense got there for sure. But also, don't forget what
- 17:41was this opposite the Jets D. So everyone's playing the Jets D, the
- 17:45opposite more expensive D. Everyone's playing Pop Douglas Hunter Henry, and yes,
- 17:49shout out to Hoopster who had another good call Hunter at the tight end.
- 17:55He's the tight end whisper. He had the Hunter Henry call. That one
- 17:57made sense from Pop Douglas. This made sense opposite of so like a leverage
- 18:02play completely the opposite side of the Jets and Djoku just doing this thing a
- 18:07little bit more lately. Is whatever mclaura and playing that every week. I
- 18:10mean, this is a perfect lineup. So it'll show up here. I'm
- 18:12sure you'll see it. But the reason was a lot of people were on
- 18:15Stafford, so you were gonna get more ownership to McLaurin yesterday because of that.
- 18:21Noah Brown only five K missing a ton of dudes made sense, you
- 18:25know, I liked Rashaan White here, but there was other good running back
- 18:27plays, so I can see getting where you couldn't get up to a seventy
- 18:32five hundred dollars Evans and then Chris Godwin and yeah, here's your next version
- 18:36of it. Right, It wasn't Gabe Davis day the last couple of weeks.
- 18:37It'll be next week after Terry McLaurin has his resurgence. It'll be the
- 18:41Gabe Davis season next week or whatever. But James Cook did not expect this
- 18:47hive and output. I obviously was on this the week before. It's not
- 18:48just the new coaching staff, but also I mean, that's what everyon's gonna
- 18:52lean on by like someone you have Dawson Knox back two in the mix and
- 18:55being able to block a little bit more. We had that call the week
- 18:56before. It just kind of carried over McCaffrey smash spot and then Baker.
- 19:02The interesting part of this is how much we loved the Green Bay side.
- 19:06It was the opposite side. So if we thought Jordan Love was going to
- 19:08push the needle and make something happen, then obviously you would think Baker would
- 19:12be at least someonet involved in that again not expecting thirty threes with twenty eight's
- 19:17and other scores there, but just a note again where it could be Goblin
- 19:19had been talked about by the coaching staff the week before and ended up getting
- 19:23eleven targets that week. HND himself another good day yesterday, So there is
- 19:27some takeaways. Let's move it over is let's go to this twenty dollars million
- 19:33maker winner here and I'll try and blow it up the best I can that
- 19:36it might be this one here. I think halfy driver's seat and ski basher
- 19:44all one fifty max. You could check it on your end, but it's
- 19:47definitely a day that was a sharper. I mean, these guys are all
- 19:49top players here that we're looking at. So just to bring it up,
- 19:52but happy Junior five got the job done. It was tight yesterday up there.
- 19:57You know, look at the swing here forty two point six four two
- 20:02thirty three point two four. I mean you're not sending congratulations, you're sweating
- 20:06and accepting them. I should say, if you're happy, you're sweating those
- 20:08stack corrections telling everybody to chill out, probably and just give me a second
- 20:11here, let me see what happens because crushing third place by almost ten points
- 20:17but very close between two sharp players here and their lineups were somewhat similar.
- 20:22But James Cook. So here we go. We got Baker, Rashad White,
- 20:26Jayden Reid. Uh talked about yesterday away to oh Jayden Reid. I
- 20:30know he got injured and stuff, and he didn't even crush the price tag
- 20:33at forty nine hundred. But the point would be, people, oh the
- 20:36shotgut there thirty five percent and forty did. But with one percent Baker,
- 20:41fifteen percent Rashad White, which is way less than these other spots, and
- 20:45a bunch of other four percent plays and five percent plays, you leave this
- 20:48guy open at this price tag. I mean, these are these are good
- 20:52lineups here, These are set up well. So talk to me about this
- 20:53one. Nate's Baker with Rashad White and Red Noah Brown, Christian McCaffrey.
- 21:02What else is in here in Djoku, DeMarcus Robinson, the Cleveland d and
- 21:06James Cook as a way to get a piece of that big total in Buffalo
- 21:08Dallas. I mean that one complete with I would say, like for the
- 21:12majority, I talked a little bit about him. I know Whop had a
- 21:15good point that brought up, but didn't bring him to James Cook. But
- 21:18talk to me about this lineup a general and then I'll go through it a
- 21:21little bit more. Yeah. So the Baker Rashada White, I think that's
- 21:26fine. I mean, it's one way to get unique right when you're using
- 21:30Rashad White, because like I said, he is heavily involved in the past
- 21:33game. Green Bay struggles with running backs out of the backfield, and he
- 21:37can get you there on the ground too. Baker is just a price play,
- 21:40right, fifty seven hundred on the opposite side of the Jordan Love ten
- 21:45percent ownership but also cheaper what five hundred dollars cheaper or three hundred dollars cheaper?
- 21:51Excuse me? Then Matthew Stafford who came in at almost thirty percent ownership,
- 21:53which everyone knew about, right, So going a little bit cheaper there.
- 21:57You just grabbed the value piece from that Rams game. Don't go to
- 22:00Kyron Williams Chuck. You don't go to Cooper cup Chalk, you don't go
- 22:03to Matthew Stafford Chalk. You just grab the value play, right, and
- 22:07then you attack different games, right, you attack the Green Bay Tampa game.
- 22:11You play the best play there on the slate in terms of running back
- 22:14in Christian McCaffrey that Noah Brown is a price and opportunity standpoint. Right,
- 22:19Tank Dalla's out, Nika Collins out, Noah Brown is still there in a
- 22:23game against a pass funnel in Tennessee. Right, Noah Brown makes sense.
- 22:27Obviously, the Jayden and Reid play way too under priced there in that game
- 22:32environment, so overall makes sense. I think the tight end defense correlation,
- 22:37I mean we start seeing that a lot. I mean we've seen this a
- 22:40couple of times this year, right, Tampbell reviewing this. Everyone looks at
- 22:41running back defense correlation. We've seen tight end defense. I don't know if
- 22:45there's correlation or what, but we've seen this come up a lot in these
- 22:51winning lineups. Is tight end in the defense. You just kind of pair
- 22:53those two together. Right. The Nadjoku and the Cleveland defense I thought was
- 22:59interesting. They're overall great build and it was very sharp to go. I
- 23:04was trying to look at his exposures to see how much Baker he had here,
- 23:07because the Baker play I think was really sharp. So he had nineteen
- 23:15almost twenty percent. Jordan love and then he had three percent Baker, So
- 23:22that just shows, right, you don't have to you don't have to have
- 23:25twenty percent everyone, and you don't have to completely fade everyone, right,
- 23:27there's no lock button or fade. Nobody can just play some of some of
- 23:33everyone or whatnot. So do you think it was interesting that it's pretty pretty
- 23:37unique seeing three percent ownership exposure in terms of year one hundred and fifty max
- 23:41get to the top. But hey, that's all it takes unfortunate runout.
- 23:45It's like, look to James Cook only eight percent underweight, a McCaffrey by
- 23:48twelve percent, like you know what I mean, Like there's a lot of
- 23:51stuff here where you got to get a lot right and have it fall into
- 23:53place. But pretty heavily overweight on Noah Brown which did end up showing up
- 23:59in there, well, overweight by almost ten percent on DeMarcus Robinson who ended
- 24:03up falling in there as well, overweight on Njoku which was in the mix
- 24:10up there, and then way overweight on the Cleveland d as well, which
- 24:14showed up in there. So I mean, some of the spots make sense
- 24:15and hit other spots as just part of your portfolio. Remember two, this
- 24:19is not a single entry lineup or something that we're reviewing. This is in
- 24:22a one fifty set. So Tonay's point and everything that made sense with it
- 24:26is like, then you see some other stuff like, Okay, Robinson can
- 24:30easily get there on his own. He's just thirty six hundred. He doesn't
- 24:32need to do a ton He could just fall into place make the rest work.
- 24:36But you're kind of betting on in this particular build, within this full
- 24:38set that cop Nakua and Kieran Williams all at over seven K. Yeah,
- 24:45they could have good games, but as long as they don't have games that
- 24:47are needed or are optimal, you could still get away with this. A
- 24:51lot of people are playing Jayden Reid, but how many are playing it with
- 24:53Baker Mayfield let alone. I mean he's only one percent let alone Baker Mayfield
- 24:57not stacked with a pass catcher and being stacked with his running back something like
- 25:02that. That stuff is what allows you to get away with a play like
- 25:04McCaffrey, who even when he was underweight. You're gonna once you have these
- 25:07guys in a lad it together, you've got the money to spend, he's
- 25:10gonna be the best spend and then I like your point on this brought up
- 25:14the Cleveland and Joku thing. I kind of wonder, like twofold again,
- 25:18this is not backed by any data, just in my head. The way
- 25:21I've always thought about it is like you can get a pick in short yardage
- 25:25situations, and then who are they gonna use in that? If it's not
- 25:27the running back, it's typically passing to a big tight end that can find
- 25:30himself in open space. When the defense is doing something and scoring points and
- 25:36they're up, they've got pick six is usually they're gonna be up in the
- 25:37game. That means they're gonna be running the ball a lot, which is
- 25:41where that correlation comes from. But on all of those situations, you end
- 25:45up in a spot where it's okay, now I gotta pass on third down?
- 25:48What's the easy way to get a first down? You're big tight end
- 25:52over the middle, again reaching a little bit, but the idea behind it,
- 25:55if you land on it, just thinking of concepts that can at least
- 25:57make sense. I'm okay with it. I've actually seen it work out more
- 26:00times than not, and it is on certain teams. The way they do
- 26:03business. Kansas City a lot of time goes again outside of this week,
- 26:08you know, with talking normal situation, I'm it's gonna give an example like
- 26:12pachacko, but checko, but checko. Third down, Let's go to our
- 26:17guy Kelsey. You see it on other teams with the Ravens run run run
- 26:19with three different running backs. Rip to my guy Keaton Mitchell last night.
- 26:22Sucks to see that season go down for him to a season at least,
- 26:26I should say, not like that, but just in general, sucks to
- 26:29see an injury that se like season ending. Who knows, it looked pretty
- 26:33bad, so hopefully he can get healthy quick. But you know, same
- 26:36thing and then likely on the end so the defense can put you in those
- 26:40positions. So I don't hate this thing. But the reason I brought up
- 26:41James cook with earlier, it was in our chat all day yesterday. Hoop
- 26:48said it. Other people said it. They think Dallas is gonna get crushed
- 26:52here, Buffalo is gonna show up, Dallas is gonna put up a stinker.
- 26:55Buffalo is gonna get the job done at home. Yet nobody played Buffalo
- 27:00and Dallas pieces. You just couldn't get to them. They were too expensive
- 27:03or they didn't make sense. Funny enough, the congrats to IMPGM won the
- 27:07DraftKings Live Final yesterday had a Michael Gallup random one off play in the lineup
- 27:12who did nothing, by the way, just still ended up in the lineup
- 27:15and still got the job done with a score of like two hundred and twelve
- 27:18or something. But back to James Cook, this was like the perfect spot
- 27:23to pop in a James Cook play this slate. It was a fifty point
- 27:26total. The total didn't move based on whether we said Buffalo's gonna slam them.
- 27:32We just talked about James Cook the week before, and it didn't even
- 27:34feel like chasing. The scenario was still very similar. Just there was other
- 27:37good running back plays in this price range and so realistically it's just a miss.
- 27:44And everyone will say, well it's results oriented because he got thirty nine.
- 27:47No, no, no, like he could have got you twenty two
- 27:48and it still would have been awesome at that price and the way this slate
- 27:52was setting up. So I'm just saying the idea of all the talking points,
- 27:56content, etc. Going towards this concept and then not getting to James
- 28:02Cook beyond four and a half percent for the field, this was a perfect
- 28:04way to get a piece of it and to coincide with them being the favorite
- 28:08at home in their state. Everything's set up well for him, I think.
- 28:12So do you have any other thoughts? A, yeah, I have
- 28:15more thoughts on that too. So it's in the flex position. Who's another
- 28:18running back similar price right fifty eight hundred. Ezekiel Elliott right projected thirty plus
- 28:25percent on came at twenty seven percent ownership. He could have easily played Zeke
- 28:29there and left the money on the table. He could have easily played Rashi
- 28:32Rice there, who was obviously a pretty chalky wide receiver, came in at
- 28:34almost fifteen percent at sixty one hundred in that Chiefs game. He could have
- 28:37played him there. Obviously, Rashei Rice still did decent right twenty four points.
- 28:41But Zeke, he plays Zeke there, he doesn't win the milli right.
- 28:45So there's just different things like that that you don't I mean, if
- 28:51you have chalk, you don't need to smash all these other plays. And
- 28:53everyone said, yeah, Buffalo's gonna smash Dallas. Dallas is bad on the
- 28:56road. They're going to struggle going into Buffalo. Okay, if they're smashing
- 29:00them, you think it's because Buffalo is going up there and lighting up with
- 29:04five passing touchdowns, right, I mean James Cook is heavily involved in the
- 29:07offense. That makes sense. I was on the Buffalo defense a little bit
- 29:11because I knew the Jets defense was going to get Chalk one hundred dollars cheaper.
- 29:15I didn't like Dallas in that game at all, so I like Buffalo.
- 29:18But to your point, right, Josh Allen was expensive, Stefon Diggs
- 29:21was expensive, duwstin Knox's back. So him and Kincaid are there, right.
- 29:26You got the game, Davis, you got the Shaki, you got
- 29:27all those other Why not just play James Cook? Right? So I thought
- 29:30that was a very sharp move. And another interesting take here is I was
- 29:33looking at his portfolio. He didn't have one player over twenty five percent ownership
- 29:37in his entire in his entire pool, So I don't know if he put
- 29:41a hard gap on everyone, like a global max exposure, because twenty four
- 29:45point seven percent is his highest selling player. So that's another interesting I don't
- 29:49know if you have any points to add on that for the people, because
- 29:52you got more. I like that last call though, so I was just
- 29:55going to bring it up though, like, yeah, you got inverted numbers
- 29:57here right in the sense of twenty six percent of the fields on zeke he
- 30:02gets you nine point six only four percent thirty nine, and I mean it
- 30:06averted the other way, like worse off, So you could have had much
- 30:08better opportunities here. My guy James Connor, I tried to make that work.
- 30:11It could have just been James Cook, but he had a touchdown early
- 30:15and I thought it would be a little bit more involved. Still got eighteen.
- 30:17I mean that's pretty good on the day. I think that was a
- 30:19lot of points. Like you look here, Yeah, James Connor was right
- 30:22up in the mix, but in reality, the other guys that came through
- 30:26were what you expected. I mean, these two chalk plays just worked out
- 30:29so well at their prices, and this was a complete miss price on the
- 30:33slate the way things have been going, so we understand why everybody got there.
- 30:36You could argue the misprice on this. We knew he needed thirty plus,
- 30:40but you've been getting a floor of like twenty to twenty five. And
- 30:41then, like we said, we were just waiting for that breakout game.
- 30:45Huge favorites on the road in a dome all these other factors that we thought
- 30:48we would see, Like for Shad White, he ended up coming through getting
- 30:52twenty one, but I mean had some ownership there as well. So let's
- 30:55go back here, let's have a look at his exposures. Will go by
- 31:00a position real quick and just see. So we talked about quarterback already.
- 31:03Don't need to go back to that. But like you said, hard Cap
- 31:06nineteen kind of like this though, like I don't care about these little ones
- 31:08trickling in wasted six percent of my homes, like everybody does horrible play playing
- 31:15mahomes always, But that's fine. We'll stick with that. Well, people
- 31:18will eventually learn, right, they'll be waiting around for what if people do
- 31:21with jordan'speed. I think they tried him for two years and then it took
- 31:23two and a half years or three years to get paid off when he started
- 31:26getting good again. So if you avoided all that, sometimes you just have
- 31:30to put a stop to it. It's really hard to get mahomes right.
- 31:33And that's the continuous piece that I'll always make fun of. On here looks
- 31:36like a hard cap, which makes sense now that I was like, oh,
- 31:38he went way underweight on him, but it really looks just like he
- 31:41capped. He just got a bunch of running backs and just some people notice
- 31:45this. I don't have any problem with this. Strategies are obviously great MMM
- 31:48players, but just in general, you end up underweight on McCaffrey. But
- 31:52again, almost like when we look at the run the sim segment on those
- 31:56showdown shows, like, oh look he's bad leverage. Now he's minus percent
- 32:00or whatever, but yeah, he's still showing up in x amount percentage of
- 32:02lineups that are simulating out that look good. In this case, my point
- 32:07is you're still getting him in a quarter of your lineups. You still have
- 32:09twenty five percent almost on Christian McCaffrey. You're still in good shape. But
- 32:14what this negative percent allows you to do is get overweight white, overweight four
- 32:19don't be results oriented, overweight Singletary who if you want to be did really
- 32:23well, overweight on Barkley, overweight on Cech, overweight on Moster. Like,
- 32:29you still get a bunch of spots. Again, you talked about it.
- 32:31I've made fun of it all season. Everyone seemingly has a all inner
- 32:36fade button. It's not how this game works. And you'll see it more
- 32:38when we get to some sharper players after this as well, we're already looking
- 32:40at them now, but just some of the other spots. We'll look at
- 32:44Cooper Cup. You said it twenty five. It looks like a hard cap
- 32:46but well underweight on Jayden Reid. You still have twenty five percent of your
- 32:52lineups almost linked towards Jaden Reid. But now you're over on Hopkins, Douglas,
- 32:57Noah Brown, Robinson, Dobbs, Hyatt, Stefan Diggs even like again,
- 33:01not all these guys got there. It's what it does for your portfolio.
- 33:06And then tight end got to the cap on McBride, which was overweight
- 33:10there. I like that little bit overweight on Tucker Craft, a little bit
- 33:14overweight on Ndjoku. Tight End plays kind of got there yesterday. They were
- 33:17the good spots to go to, so that's fine. And then Detroit will
- 33:22or sorry, defense will note, not Detroit defense will note. It looks
- 33:27like where we at here, no defense over ten percent just turned them all
- 33:31off and got there that way. So you know that that's something you can
- 33:37do. Somebody brought that up yesterday actually to again, you don't have to
- 33:38do it, and I know not everybody does. But just to see it,
- 33:42let's look at some of these other ones. I know, driver's seat,
- 33:45another good player. Let's see here, what do they have for exposures?
- 33:50So the field underweight on the chalk defense, Ski Basher underweight on the
- 33:58chalk defense, and then and on the rams defense. Still at twelve,
- 34:01but you're still getting over on these other spots. I mean, I don't
- 34:05see too much different here with that. Anything else you want to talk about
- 34:07their nads? If not, let's go to the Wildcat. Talk about my
- 34:10guy, aneil aneil prow eighty eight. Awesome dude, awesome player, and
- 34:15ship the Wildcat yesterday. Do you have anything more on the twenty dollars you
- 34:17want to talk about? Though? No? The only other thing with uh
- 34:22the dude that won it, right, hard cap twenty five percent, it
- 34:25seems like on everyone, but that's still twenty five one fifty is thirty six
- 34:30lineups, right, That's more than some people put into the contest alone.
- 34:34Right, So when you're playing these guys, right, you still have thirty
- 34:37six lineups with Christian McCaffrey, right, that's more than majority of the field
- 34:42is entering in there, right, A majority of the people are entering twenty
- 34:45or less. Right, obviously got your one fifty max ers, so like
- 34:47you still have outs to the top and then the Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield.
- 34:52If your Jordan loves your highestone quarterback, why not go on the other
- 34:54side of it with a small percentage your lineups just in case the game script
- 34:59flips. The only other point that I wanted to bring up. If you're
- 35:02already in on that game on one side, it makes sense to go in
- 35:06on the game from the other side, from the other quarterback as well.
- 35:08Yeah, it could be the first week summer watching, even though it's our
- 35:12last week for the show. But just to know you said it there.
- 35:14I mean, we talked about this all the time college football and even this
- 35:15season they introduced these super flex for whatever. But like, that's why you're
- 35:19always putting two quarterbacks for the most part, or quarterbacks against each other,
- 35:22because that's actually the highest correlation in football. But you don't get to use
- 35:25it because when we play class on Classic Slate, because when we play Classic
- 35:29Slate, you can only pick one. But to your point, it's funny,
- 35:31because what did everybody do yesterday, Like, oh, I'm gonna play
- 35:35holl the sneaky opposite side. He was half the ownership of Stafford or maybe
- 35:38a little bit over that. But still the point was, why did you'll
- 35:43love still got love? Why didn't have Why didn't everyone jump the other side?
- 35:46It was like one tenth of him on the other side on Baker Mayfield,
- 35:50But you love the Jordan Love side. So it sounds weird to say
- 35:52it, but you get what my point is. What Needs' point just was,
- 35:54So I think that's kind of key to pick up on. And then
- 35:57yeah, your point on the lineups thing, I've said this for you.
- 36:00I love that you just brought that one up. I think we've missed it
- 36:01all season. But people forget. They'll say, oh, that's crazy.
- 36:05They'll go around now and say, dude won the Millie with only ten percent
- 36:07James Cook in his portfolio. Well, first of all, that was like
- 36:12double the field or more. Second of all, ten percent of one to
- 36:15fifty is very obviously fifteen. Most people have twenty lineups or less ten to
- 36:20twenty, maybe five lineups that they throw in that he had. You could
- 36:22he was as if you had one hundred percent of those or on your twenty
- 36:27max. They were seventy five percent him on that, so it's like they're
- 36:30mixing into a portfolio. Doesn't mean don't play it if you can't play one.
- 36:34Fifty to each their own on that. We've had plenty of conversations on
- 36:37that throughout the season. Some people have it on fifty. My point about
- 36:40that is, if you feel good about your fifty, I do all the
- 36:43time. I'm fine. We're just playing that to each their own. But
- 36:45other people are like, oh, got to use the max because they have
- 36:49the MAX. Well, yesterday, that's my point of about the running joke
- 36:52about never Mahomes. I could have ran a thousand lineups yesterday with the lock
- 36:55button on Mahomes that said use at least two guys with him, and probably
- 37:00got zero mahomes. Ceh McKinnon's not that those were even needed anyway. It
- 37:05would have loaded me up with rice, it would have loaded me up with
- 37:07Kelsey, it would have loaded me up with all this other stuff, and
- 37:10then none of them were any even needed anyway. So sometimes it doesn't matter
- 37:15if you have a thousand lineups or fifty or ten, but when these guys
- 37:17have a certain percentage of exposure to somebody, you are still getting a nice
- 37:22overweight position on the field, and overweight versus what the majority are doing anyway,
- 37:27So you actually are giving yourself out on those James Cook lineups. You
- 37:30have fifteen lineups that have him if he has that forty point almost forty point
- 37:35day, So keep that in mind when you're looking at as well. Naid's
- 37:38I'll click it back to you. We got a man, just a who's
- 37:42who up at the top. So I said, it was definitely a day
- 37:44for the Sharps yesterday. Aneil maybe less known to some then Yoda, Chipotle
- 37:50and Ricky d hardfour Redco, BK, Grex, all these guys, like
- 37:52a lot of these guys are are. All these guys are incredible. I've
- 37:55met most of them. Grex awesome dude, but definitely he probably underrated because
- 38:00people don't know him as well. Crushes it in a bunch of sports.
- 38:04Really good guy. Neil, same thing. Should know him by now if
- 38:07you don't. But I know everybody knows these guys. So we'll get to
- 38:09some of these ones and round up the show on this tournament days. It'll
- 38:13take some time, but here's Anil's lineup. He got there with Blacko Amari
- 38:17and Djoku no runback popped in some pieces, Okay, Kieran Williams and Terry
- 38:23McLaurin loved that little secondary popped in Chuba Hubbard, Rashie Rice, Noah Brown,
- 38:30and that allowed him to get up to the payoup, the opposite of
- 38:32the Jets chalk. Give me your thoughts on his lineup here. It's a
- 38:36pretty interesting one and it again just snuck in the win. Another guy waiting
- 38:40on stat corrections versus destroying third place by eleven points. Go ahead, Yeah,
- 38:46going in on the Cleveland offense at home against a pretty bad Bears defense.
- 38:52Right, Bears defense been playing playing better as of late, but I
- 38:55mean it's still Cleveland at home and the dog pound. Right, Flacco came
- 38:59in, and I mean, this guy's been zipping the football the last two
- 39:01weeks. Right, Obviously, they went in and beat Jacksonville and now they
- 39:07beat they beat Chicago here in Flaco just looks like, I mean, this
- 39:10guy looks like a Super Bowl champ, right, flinging in his connection with
- 39:15the n Joe who's off the charts right now. So obviously obviously O'Neil went
- 39:21in on that conviction right with the Cleveland offense. You don't need a run
- 39:23back because who you're going to play in Chicago? Right, You got Dj
- 39:25Moore, while he's expensive, you don't know who else Mooney? Right,
- 39:30The running backs kind of trash there, So don't really need a run back.
- 39:32And a lot of people do force a runback. We've talked about that
- 39:36multiple times across this the show breakdowns the last fifteen weeks. Is a lot
- 39:40of people in the optimizer, right. A lot of optimizers have it automatically
- 39:44built in right where you click a button and it says, automatically run every
- 39:46stack back with opposing pass catcher or running back tight end. If you do
- 39:52that, obviously you don't get to a build like this. We already brought
- 39:54up to Noah Brown. I really like that secondary correlation with Kyrin Williams and
- 39:58Terry McLaurin just grabbed the two best plays from that game, right, that
- 40:00are affordable. Terry McLaurin flop leg from the whole season right fifteen percent.
- 40:07I mean he was projected to come in higher owned than that. Obviously he
- 40:08got there. Kyron and Williams just significantly miss priced there with his his line
- 40:14share of the back the Rashid Rice right wide receiver number one. There you
- 40:17can't afford to get up to Kelsey. Rashid Rice has been the guy for
- 40:22Kansas City's offense. People want to argue Justin Watson things like that, but
- 40:25Rashid why continues to produce every week like that? And then he landed on
- 40:30Chewba Hubbard. But also thing about Chewba Hubbard is people wanted to play Bijon
- 40:36myself included. Bijon didn't come in super high owned or anything. But on
- 40:39the other side of that same game, right, we talk about that a
- 40:43lot. Other side of the same game, same running back, same quarterback,
- 40:46other side of the game, right, just flipping the script. It's
- 40:49still a gross game, but it could be Chewba Hubbard at a cheaper price
- 40:53point. He is at home right against Atlanta, so overall good good,
- 40:59good building and allowed him to spend up at defense. Where on the other
- 41:01side of the Jets where we already talked about, right, Jets came in
- 41:05at almost twenty percent ownership in the twenty dollars, and you flip the builds
- 41:08because you got these other cheap pieces. So overall, looking at his exposures
- 41:14too, like against Stafford, and Howell took up a huge majority of his
- 41:16lineups, got overweight on how opposite side. Brock perty pretty straightforward up and
- 41:22down here. I liked all these options Alan. I think my slate plan
- 41:24had Stafford, Purdy, Love Alan and maybe case like one more. I
- 41:31think I played Keenum at four K just to make it, try and make
- 41:34it work. I know some people had some Keenum with everything builds yesterday,
- 41:37but tenum to Noah Brown, our guy Chris Neville nevs in the discord,
- 41:42very generous guy, always giving away. He came sixth for three hundred K
- 41:45in the FFWC yesterday in Arizona, and I thought that was pretty interesting,
- 41:51just because again if you were looking for a way to use Keenum and Noah
- 41:53Brown put him together, sandwich that and try and get around there that way.
- 41:58I thought that was another good spot. But again heavy on love no
- 42:01Baker, and not that you needed to be he already won the tournament.
- 42:04I'm saying. My point is like, it's a lot of people did this
- 42:07yesterday because of the game environment. I know our guys that Nick said.
- 42:09I thought this was going under our stack rankings. Loved the Love side I
- 42:14keep doing this, but they were in love with Jordan Love We'll say it
- 42:17that way. But either way, the game looked good. I know my
- 42:21core was love read Craft with CMC and White, but I had four guys
- 42:25from that game going, and in my actual main build it had Godwin in
- 42:30it as well to finish out the five man So it's like that's I was
- 42:32all over that game. I had a good resulting. It was one hundred
- 42:35and seventy six that I scored with it. But my point is, you
- 42:38know the environment, the stack rankings have been all over it is. It's
- 42:42in Lambeau. I get that side of it. But I thought there was
- 42:44again the pricing, even if it didn't get to the over I'm not focusing
- 42:47on the game points, like I've said all season, the fantasy point potential,
- 42:52so I was looking at it from that. Let's look what else does
- 42:54he have here? So very heavy on the the big four. Really,
- 43:00to be honest, Aids, Look, we knew Kieran Williams. Again,
- 43:04he sets a cap very clearly of some kind because you're just not getting there.
- 43:07But yeah, McCaffrey, Gibson, Zeke Elliott, these four, we're
- 43:12by far the foremost popular on the site yesterday. It's right here you can
- 43:17see it and very close behind, so not straying too far. And this
- 43:22probably is the product gat good point here by Jason our guy Baderbert says Gibson
- 43:27third highest owned. If he goes Gibson there instead of Hubbard, he doesn't
- 43:30get their nice pivot. But I would also imagine too, just bringing it
- 43:35up, and I hate I'm not gonna go back and forth right now,
- 43:37I know it off the top of my head, but just to note,
- 43:38remember his lineup had Kieran and McLaurin as the flex, so you weren't gonna
- 43:46likely get McLaurin and Gibson and Kieran. It can happen. I'm not saying
- 43:51it wouldn't. I'm just saying that's you know, maybe it's luck, maybe
- 43:53it's whatever. But for that lineup, I would imagine that's the case.
- 43:55Because also of his quarterback exposures on Stack and Howell being so high, it
- 44:01was like there was some sort of combination set up for that where that if
- 44:06you got to that many, it would end up with more of those guys
- 44:08in the lineup. Pretty straightforward here too. For the situational stuff. The
- 44:14interesting note I would say though, is that like Cup Robinson and Nikua way
- 44:20down the list besides Nakoula, you could say seventeen, but the other guy's
- 44:22ten percent or less on him having almost twenty percent of Stafford and a bunch
- 44:29more. How you're not really seeing it focused as much there, just kind
- 44:32of capped out to get nice chunks of each. Got a good little bit
- 44:36of leverage on Wilson Lamb situational stuff there where again not that they came through,
- 44:40but more of just how he got there. Marii Cooper, what was
- 44:44his flack ownership by the way, just going back very little. So that's
- 44:49funny too, right, You see that three percent on that as just the
- 44:52one that sneaks through sometimes that that's all it takes. I showed that often,
- 44:55joked about it on my own stuff last week when people made you know,
- 44:59I said, like some you think you're dead early in the day,
- 45:00and there's one lineup that comes through later on, and so that's the way
- 45:05in djoku, But same thing here McBride craft. I think he played it
- 45:07pretty straight, pretty straightforward, and up and down when it comes to how
- 45:12his lineups were built like or sorry, how his pool was built. It's
- 45:15the roster construction factor that comes into play. Where's he at here on the
- 45:22field. See, this was my point too, Like you'll see it with
- 45:24some of these players. We're gonna look at the other guys too. I
- 45:25don't want to spend all day on here. But like jets D still took
- 45:29ten percent way under the field, not playing the chockiest tea, but match
- 45:32the field or just above on rams Again, there is no all in or
- 45:36fade button. You can still get away with it and come through before I
- 45:39look at somebody else here and give you other thoughts on this one. Na's
- 45:42our guy Trevor who shipped five hundred k last season in the Showdown slate.
- 45:46That was a point he's bringing up back to our previous one on how many
- 45:50lineups to play. There's other factors involved. It needs to go your way.
- 45:53But his point he brings up is for Showdown and it can work on
- 45:57anything. But just to say it again, same thing. If your script
- 46:00is to run all five ones with running backs at the captains, it wouldn't
- 46:05matter if you have a thousand lineups in Showdown, You're not getting there.
- 46:07Play your scripts, hit the script right and it can come through still.
- 46:12So if you feel comfortable with that, it can work out to your favor.
- 46:15In the tune of five hundred K in his case, and then he
- 46:19also says riverboat Ron plays DFAs benching Alan Gibson Dick. Yeah, he is
- 46:23obviously joking about that. But in general, the later we get in the
- 46:28season, you do have to remember some of the stuff. That's why becomes
- 46:30a little bit more challenging and you have to think outside the box a little
- 46:32bit later in the season because people will sit guys down. There is more
- 46:37potential for tanking. There is more potential for seeing what somebody has and being
- 46:40able to get away with it, saying you double down. We're talking about
- 46:44double leveraging on the slates. And then these tournaments, the coaches are saying,
- 46:47how can we and the owners and things like that, how can we
- 46:51bench someone but make the storyline look like we're trying to see what this guy's
- 46:54got and give him a shot, try and kill two birds with one stone.
- 46:58The problem is sometimes backfires, and whoever said player is that gets plugged
- 47:02in wants to prove that they have a reason to be out there and they
- 47:06end up doing well for that. This was the point brought up earlier to
- 47:10NADS was Hunter Henry was obvious only pass catcher wasn't playing Douglas. Yeah,
- 47:15sometimes that is the case, and I used the example last season a lot.
- 47:17But last year we kept trying to make Greg Dortch work and it ended
- 47:22up being Trey McBride. This week was the same thing. Pop Douglas got
- 47:25a bunch of late steam and then all of a sudden it ends up being
- 47:30Hunter Henry. So any other thoughts from O'Neil stuff here that you've got,
- 47:34If not, I want to look at some others. No, I just
- 47:37think it's interesting. So if you look at the top five players right in
- 47:39terms of ROI obviously all very very good players all had one hundred lineoffs max
- 47:44center in a three thirty three, he had thirty six percent max cap on
- 47:49his player pool. All the other four players all went like sixty five percent
- 47:52or higher. Right, So I think that is an interesting point because we
- 47:55saw the million maker winner, right, have a max cap you're set too,
- 48:00so obviously to each your own, right, there's multiple different ways to
- 48:05play. But he only still with ninety six or with thirty six percent max.
- 48:08He still only played ninety seven players, whereas some of these guys that
- 48:12had seventy percent cap, seventy five percent, seventy eight percent still played eighty
- 48:16five eighty one players things like that. So it's not sometimes going super narrow
- 48:22and taking stands. I know your your kind of team, build your portfolio
- 48:29and get you exposure, and it doesn't mean play everyone, but it means
- 48:31play everyone in a way that makes sense. I know that's kind of the
- 48:35camp you come from, and seems like Anil is kind of in that same
- 48:37boat. And obviously it came to the tune of obviously a very very good
- 48:42day for him. Yeah, I like this setup. But the one thing
- 48:46I will say to your point is that I also don't mind. Like,
- 48:51again, we're talking about the best players in the world. But my point
- 48:52is like these sixty eights aren't coming in on something ridiculous. I will show
- 48:57you something in a second, and again, a very sharp player, but
- 48:59I think it's still for me. It's it's an aggressive strategy, but I
- 49:02understand it because I see something else now, so I'll note it. But
- 49:07where I'm going with this, so Neil, I love this approach. This
- 49:08is how I like to play. I like to still get pieces of angles.
- 49:13I think you're not dead just because you didn't have this, that or
- 49:15the other. But obviously when you see like Yodico and Chipotle, where they're
- 49:19doing it is on these top plays like I again, getting sixty eight percent
- 49:22here and when he's already sixty that's fine, this is awesome. This is
- 49:27my point. Though everyone talks about this is the biggest leak I see out
- 49:30there are one of the biggest leagues. I call a lot of things leaks.
- 49:32I think this is one of the biggest ones. Though, man forty
- 49:36percent McCaffrey, I'm against that. He's not gonna do it. I'm full
- 49:39fade. And then other people are like, oh, he's gonna crush.
- 49:43I'm all in. You are allowed just to play the field on the guy
- 49:45and get enough exposure to him. There, you're not paying there, you
- 49:49really thing, yoa Udica is paying the rake on the field Like this gets
- 49:52set all the time. Oh, he's just matching the field, he's paying
- 49:53the rake. This man is definitely not paying the rake. I can promise
- 49:57you that, and you guys know this, So again, stop worrying about
- 50:00whatever everyone else is telling you. I think a beginner rule for someone who's
- 50:04just starting off playing DFS, it's really good to think of these things where
- 50:08you have to make hard decisions. I do like it from that perspective.
- 50:13My friend Degenerate seventy five praise that Pete preaches us all the time. I
- 50:16think it's really good advice. And a lot of people that he's talking to
- 50:20are people coming in and ourselves included are starting off just getting into DFS.
- 50:23I think it is good advice to try and take a stand on someone versus
- 50:29just playing the field. I think what we're doing here, and I know
- 50:30for myself and many others that are trying to get great at their game are
- 50:34looking for what are the advanced players doing and trying to understand why. What
- 50:37I always say is, you don't know. You're not gonna go dissect every
- 50:42single one of his lineups, but you have no idea how he played this
- 50:45forty two percent. So my point is of I always say this, and
- 50:50stick with me on this when it gets tricky. It's worked better in golf
- 50:52to explain it. But if forty percent of the field played McCaffrey and fifty
- 51:00of those lineups are playing it in a certain way that's negative AEV horrible with
- 51:05all the other chalk plays, lineups that don't make sense, lineups that have
- 51:08no chance really on paper, of winning this type of tournament. And he's
- 51:13matching the field. But every single one, one hundred percent of his lineups
- 51:16are built in a way that's plus EV very solid. I mean one of
- 51:21literally I think the best player in the world. So my point is about
- 51:22this, he's not actually matching the field. His percentage factually says he matched
- 51:29the field. On ownership, he built way better lineups than the majority of
- 51:32the field. So he's actually overweight on good McCaffrey lineups, and that's where
- 51:37people miss. There's levels to it. His paper number says he matched the
- 51:43field. What he actually did dominated the field most likely because of these forty
- 51:46percent, there's probably twenty five to fifty percent of them that are very bad
- 51:51lineups. He's got forty two percent that are probably very good lineups. So
- 51:53one hundred percent of his McCaffrey lineups are built strong. He's actually way overweight
- 51:59on useful McCaffrey lineups. That's where people miss it and make a mistake.
- 52:04And that's why you can match the field on ownership. Hopefully that's a good
- 52:07one that you guys can take away. It works really well in golf.
- 52:10Oh, this guy's gonna be thirty percent. I can't play him. No,
- 52:14you can play him as the field and play him differently. You can
- 52:16play him and take a stand on either side, or you can go to
- 52:20your default a fighter all in. But there's definitely something to think of when
- 52:23you talk about this. I was gonna say, my guy Grex, who
- 52:27is actually hilarious. When I was at a what was it, the Fantasy
- 52:30Golf World Championship with him and his wife there, this man had one of
- 52:35every drink amongst the meal. He had like an espresso martini to start,
- 52:38tried whatever the drink A special was with like a bourbon. This is in
- 52:42New Orleans. I think it was in New Orleans. Maybe it was in
- 52:45a different event, but a Memphis sorry for last year's Fantasy Golf World Championship.
- 52:50Then he had a dessert one he had wine with the steak. I
- 52:52mean, this guy tried every drink there. He's an incredible dude, hilarious
- 52:55guy. But I was like, man, he went forty percent I know
- 52:59he was he on this game, but he went forty percent on Wicks.
- 53:01But then I realized he was also one of the guys that didn't max that
- 53:05still ended up outputting a very nice ROI. So congrats to Grex, my
- 53:08guy. I just was wondering. I was like, man, this is
- 53:10an aggressive approach. If it was on one hundred lineups, I would think,
- 53:15uh, sorry, forty percent on four is too much. On ten
- 53:17lineups, I'm fine with that. He's building around those stats. And if
- 53:21you go to where he was at here, it was pretty balanced. Pick
- 53:24your five quarterbacks run it. I might have to hit him up and tell
- 53:28him about this never Mahomes thing. Still, but anybody else you want to
- 53:31look at here names? I know you brought up looking at no. So
- 53:37Ricky D. Yeah, Ricky D obviously another very, very incredible player.
- 53:40We talked about him multiple times this year already on these shows. Look at
- 53:44his running back exposures, right he Yeah, he had sixty percent cap exposure
- 53:47on the good plays, right, McCaffrey, he matched the field, or
- 53:52thought he was matching the field. Right, he went thirty six percent.
- 53:53McCaffrey. To your point that you just made, right, Kyron Williams.
- 53:58He knew this stake in this field, Kyon Williams is going to be even
- 54:00higher owned than in the Millionmaker came in at sixty percent of what he do.
- 54:05He matched the field. He probably thought he was going to be slightly
- 54:07overweight, but still the point still stands and that allowed him to Okay,
- 54:12he thought obviously Zeke, he knew Zeke was going to becoming Chalky. He
- 54:15probably thought about thirty percent to let me go double weight or double or double
- 54:20the field right in terms of Zeke, because I'm matching the field on the
- 54:22two other chalk running backs McCaffrey, Kyroen and Williams. So to your point,
- 54:27Tambell just another obviously incredible, incredible player. You don't need to lock
- 54:31or fade, fade, fade these guys. You can match the field at
- 54:35other good plays and it allows you to get overweight on guys like Trey McBride,
- 54:38Zeke Elliott. Don't be results oriented, right, match go overweight on
- 54:43those guys, get overweight right. He had thirty four percent. You Behobbard
- 54:45on the other side of that bijon game that we already talked about. So
- 54:49just another point to bring up that I think it's interesting, and this is
- 54:52why the show's so beneficial for me, so beneficial for you and hopefully you
- 54:57guys in the chat. Obviously we use fans Labs. We're not partner with
- 55:00them or anything, but I just like, we just like the way that
- 55:04you can look at everything on here, and I highly suggest y'all go through
- 55:07this. You can click into any contest, look at any player filtered by
- 55:10username search, look at their exposures, look at the lineups, and see
- 55:15everything, and then go back into whatever optimizer partner you use. We use
- 55:20a solver over here, and you can go back into the rewind feature and
- 55:22rerun lineups and play around with it and see to redo your exposure portfolio and
- 55:29then see what they would have came out with and things like that, just
- 55:31to play around, because if you don't create a process, you have nothing
- 55:36to go off of, and you're kind of just throwing darts at the wall
- 55:37every single week, which definitely is not going to be profitable in the long
- 55:40run. Yeah, my man, Ricky d could have won this thing too.
- 55:44If you had have just got rid of the fourteen percent of homes,
- 55:46it would have been all over. Man. He would have got all that
- 55:49spaced out to the other good spots here he would have crushed. But yeah,
- 55:52you said it, and I guess this play, the Hubbard one really
- 55:55sticks out because that's just a huge overweight stance. So something you had there
- 55:59Autumn. I like, okay, the late news on you know, people
- 56:02coming around on Jones again, not results. I'm looking at portfolios and what
- 56:07they got to. I definitely think Pollard, no one was on him,
- 56:09could have been the opposite side in James Cook. So the same idea,
- 56:14this just doesn't always work out right. Same idea though, was how do
- 56:16I get a piece of that game that nobody else is going to the answer
- 56:21was James Cook. But I like the thought process of Tony Pollard. You
- 56:24see it here, Rice Douglas, Wandale, all these just a round field
- 56:30or above overweight on Rice, overweight on Zeke. Probably a lot of secondary
- 56:35stacks focusing on that as ways to get that. You can use the good
- 56:37plays, but put them together and correlate. But pop Douglas fits in with
- 56:42that. Wandale fine, But then you go down here and it's like Marquise
- 56:46Brown. Not many people get into that one. Elijah Moore not many people
- 56:50going there. Dj Moore, not many people ended up going there, Amari,
- 56:53So lots of good stuff within the mix that you still get in Flacco
- 56:59two percent, he's got twelve fields, two percent got fourteen. That's how
- 57:02you get to those more double more plays the Elijah Morris and the or the
- 57:07DJ Moors and the Elijah Morris and then go to tight end way over on
- 57:13McBride taking the stand. I don't I guess the only thing I can say
- 57:16about this again, I don't love it because I thought we had a million
- 57:20tight ends yesterday anyway, But there is something to be said for flipping the
- 57:24build when everyone's on a cheap tight end that lands you on a one Travis
- 57:29kelce which, in turn, if Travis Kelcey has a big game, it's
- 57:32likely linked to Mahomes. I get that side of it. I just don't
- 57:35personally love playing a guy that I just don't believe in and in DFS at
- 57:38least. And also I thought the tight end was loaded and there's been like
- 57:43no need and it was pretty much everybody smacked Travis kelce in the face.
- 57:46But oh Taylor Swift was at the game. He's gonna do good right,
- 57:50No, it has nothing to do with that shit either. So that's just
- 57:52one thing way again chalk dead a round it out. Underweight on the Jets,
- 57:59but again, oh don't play chuck da well what but then overweight on
- 58:01the rams like you can still go both ways overweight on Buffalo kind Again,
- 58:06I really like Ricky d the way he's picking his spots. Good overweight,
- 58:10good with it, underweight, go back here, I will just wait overweight
- 58:17around the field. Underweight, You're sorry, opposite of what I was trying
- 58:22to say, go back to here, same thing. Picked his stand way
- 58:24overweight on Rice, got overweight on some others, and then match the field
- 58:30on some others, and then to your running back point, you know,
- 58:32match the field on the biggest number, but way overweight on Zeke, match
- 58:37the field on McCaffrey, and then you get some underweight stances down here.
- 58:42Yeah, I have another point to map to. Right to the Cuba Hobbard.
- 58:45So who's tube sandwich between right, Zeke and Gibson. Obviously Zeke and
- 58:50Gibson the two chalk pieces. Tuba obviously low owned. He knew he was
- 58:52overweight on Zeke, right double the field he was underweight on Gibson, So
- 58:57he went with the leverage play, going overweight the guy in the similar price
- 59:00point in between those, which I thought was obviously a sharp move, and
- 59:05Tuba got twenty three carries and twenty five carries the two weeks before that in
- 59:08two games that they got absolutely annihilated. So even in this game, where
- 59:14obviously it was a gross total, but every game in that am am window
- 59:19was a gross total. Right, grabbing the guy that's still getting the work
- 59:22right, getting the snap share, getting the carries, and also leveraging the
- 59:25field because he knows he's underweight on Gibson, right, going with the guy
- 59:30in the middle there a fifty six hundred. I didn't want to bring that
- 59:32up as well. Yeah, love, I love that call. And the
- 59:36last thing I would say too, and it will probably trickle over to golf.
- 59:38What I you know for the PGADFS season is I did a lot of
- 59:42thinking over the last year this season with the NFLDFS and things like that too,
- 59:45about some of these like one percenters trickling in and stuff like you see
- 59:51like oh you had a one percent forward or you go back to who were
- 59:54we on earlier? It was like three percent that Anil had for the quarterback
- 59:58that actually ended up winning the tournament. And I think a lot of people
- 1:00:00have said, like even myself has said it. In golf, at least
- 1:00:04with the plays that are above seven k, I think, and it goes
- 1:00:07to football. With anything with football, I'm gonna let them trickle in because
- 1:00:09it's a running back that could just be that one excuse me, one difference
- 1:00:14maker that makes the lineup. But in golf, it's like if you're gonna
- 1:00:15take a stand, if you're gonna go to a guy in the six k
- 1:00:19range, I will always say like, let's get five or ten percent so
- 1:00:22that, if you're right, they're mixed in. It's an individual sport though,
- 1:00:23so I think I still stand by that. But when I was only
- 1:00:27getting like two percent or three percent of a Max Homa because I was getting
- 1:00:31so many guys around him that were just as good or better that I just
- 1:00:34like those plays better, that one Max Homa could flip into the rest of
- 1:00:38my core. And we've seen it here now going back to NFL, where
- 1:00:42those one little trickle off quarterbacks of three percent to five percent or only having
- 1:00:46seven or eight percent of James Cook, you could just cross them off and
- 1:00:52say I'm not getting enough, so why not? But if they trickle into
- 1:00:53the right places, those are these forty point differences and thirty point differences that
- 1:00:59can separate yourself from not making any money to literally winning the tournament and moving
- 1:01:05on. And it's not really being like situational or sample size or results oriented.
- 1:01:08Just I've been watching it all season. It does make sense to me
- 1:01:13where you can find these spots, plug them in and still make them work,
- 1:01:15especially in NFL, but in golf, I'm talking more with mid tier
- 1:01:20and above, not the scrubs. I think you should still kind of find
- 1:01:24some scrubs that you like, because otherwise you can get yourself playing too many
- 1:01:28of them and you put yourself in the situation of now you didn't have enough
- 1:01:30of any of them to find its way in. But for the players up
- 1:01:34top, I think I'm gonna let more of those guys seep in. Any
- 1:01:37final thoughts from you and aids before we get out of here, It's been
- 1:01:38a great season doing this show with you and always love breaking the stuff down
- 1:01:42in general. No, it's been a great season. We appreciate as everyone
- 1:01:45that tunes in, everyone who watches on playback. Obviously, we know at
- 1:01:50Chippen Nation here this isn't the most viewed show, but that's not what we're
- 1:01:52about. We're about helping the people who want to learn, the people who
- 1:01:57want to become better players. Obviously I paid attention of the show in the
- 1:02:00past, right and when Tamble was remember of previous sites things like that,
- 1:02:05I've loved this show. That's why when he asked if I wanted to do
- 1:02:07it with them this year, obviously I said yes, it'll be back next
- 1:02:10year. We appreciate everyone. And as always, just because we're not doing
- 1:02:15the show to the rest of the season, I still highly suggest y'all do
- 1:02:20this on your Monday during this time slot whatever. Go on Fantasy Labs,
- 1:02:23go on the DraftKings leader boards and look at these different players, look at
- 1:02:27their constructions and look at what you did right. Maybe you were in line
- 1:02:30and maybe you had a good day, or maybe you didn't right. What
- 1:02:34could you did better? Things like that. Just because we're not on here
- 1:02:37doing these shows doesn't mean you can't continue to do this process. Because I
- 1:02:40know I'm going to continue to do it. I know tam Will continues to
- 1:02:43do it. That's how you become better players, and don't forget about it,
- 1:02:46like you can always pencil it in somewhere else. The next couple of
- 1:02:49for example, Christmas Day, a lot of stuff with family, but also
- 1:02:52a lot of dfs. We're going to have you covered at ship a Nation,
- 1:02:53but there's gonna be NBA slates, NFL slates, lots of shows that
- 1:02:57we're going to record in advance to make sure you guys are set up.
- 1:03:00Then, of course, all the content over on the site if you guys
- 1:03:02want to get it on the action. Like I said, the code that
- 1:03:05still in the running here you can use code Mayo gets you ten percent off
- 1:03:08any plan and if you do it for the first month, it's like two
- 1:03:10bucks a day. It works out to it gets you all the stuff that
- 1:03:14we offer on our site gets you a price cheap enough that you can still
- 1:03:16afford any optimizer that you want. If you are going to use an optimizer,
- 1:03:21we recommend the solver that's our partnership, but that'll get you guys into
- 1:03:23the mix where you can use it for all of that. Again, thanks
- 1:03:27to everybody out there for watching. We appreciate you all. Hit me up
- 1:03:30if you guys have any questions Twitter at totag and Tambo you can find me
- 1:03:32there. We're a hundred subscribers away on this very channel, so if on
- 1:03:37the way out from giving away an annual membership, if on the way out,
- 1:03:39you can just hit the subscribe button if you haven't done so already.
- 1:03:43There's all free content throughout all the other sports, lots more to come,
- 1:03:46even today alone, and then we'll be back today at two pm Eastern.
- 1:03:50Hoop Title and myself breaking down Philly in Seattle for this game tonight. We've
- 1:03:54got some injury stuff to keep an eye on. I think it looks like
- 1:03:58it's gonna be Drew Locke. Hopefully we see Hurts to keep it so it's
- 1:04:00still a pretty good game. But if not, I still have a lot
- 1:04:02more interest in tonight's game either way, so it's gonna be a good one.
- 1:04:05Thank you guys so much for watching for naids for myself, Totek and
- 1:04:10Tambo led shipping