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Cutler & Polls · Newsradio WGAN

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  I think you guys got some pent up, well, things to say, some
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  pent up things to say because we've had an extra day off and
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  anytime we've got an extra day off, it's good to get back in
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  the swing of things. So let's do that and talk to
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  Greg from Sabattus. Kick off the calls here this
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  morning. Greg, how are you?
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  Oh, very good Matt. I just thought I would this
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  morning light the fuse to send you into orbit.
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  Now, given, given the current climate, politically and
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  judicially, I think that if Elliott Cutler had won his
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  election, he'd still be in office.
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  Yeah. You're going to.
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  Let's talk about. Bring him up again, yeah.
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  $10,000 he spent more than that on child porn.
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  You know the. Man needs to be removed from
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  society. Period.
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  The end. Yeah, well, we're getting to the
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  point where I, I have no words, Greg, at this because, you know,
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  you may recall my coverage of him 'cause I know you probably
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  do. I'd think like on the third, the
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  third time he was, he was up for violating his parole.
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  And the judge in the case quite literally said, and I'm
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  paraphrasing it, but it's absolutely accurate to what the
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  judge said, basically said this is it, buddy.
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  Like there's no more chances you won't get bail again.
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  Two more times he's got bail. Now he's on five.
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  Two more times he's got bail. So all talk, I mean, is, does
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  none of this stuff mean anything?
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  And can anyone explain, Greg? Yeah, you did send me in to her,
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  But thank you. Can anybody explain to me why no
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  one talks about this? Where where are lawmakers?
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  Where are where's the media? The media does their dutiful job
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  to, you know, create. You know, there's a story about
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  about Elliott Cutler getting bail again, right?
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  I'm looking at one right now. WMTW.
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  Good job, guys. You've done it.
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  Former Maine gubernatorial candidate Elliott Cutler
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  released on $10,000 bail. That's all you get, though.
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  That's what you get. You get a story about the fact
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  that, well, you violated this burl again.
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  And I guess you know the $10,000 bail then.
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  All right, I got, I got something I get mosquitoes to
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  report on or something. You know, I actually, you know
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  what I should do? I should probably look up what's
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  on the front page of the bag or Daily News this morning.
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  All right, we got the Sears Mafia.
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  That's a good story. You know, that's definitely
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  something worth covering. Bobby Charles is a Maine
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  Republican frontrunner and a pariah.
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  The raw political battle for control in Maine's Milltown.
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  A Maine Milltown? Oh, Maine's coast might have
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  more than 1000 shipwrecks. That's exciting.
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  Yeah. How Donald Trump's policies are
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  slowing a Maine Mills revival. Maine man allegedly ran away
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  from head on crash that injured 3.
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  It's a general Crime Story fine. You get my point though.
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  I mean, at what point is there a escalation of outrage over this
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  guy? And I just don't understand why
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  I don't see it. I don't see it on social media.
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  I don't see it in the media. I don't hear lawmakers taking
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  talking about it. I don't see or hear anything
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  about this, this man who is one of the most prominent political
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  figures in the state, even as old as he is and now is passe
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  and and you know, over as he is still a name that was central
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  part of Maine politics during the 20 tens and has violated his
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  probation five times for a originally horrific crime to
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  which he got absolutely no time in jail for.
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  And nobody's outraged. Nobody's outraged.
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  Thanks, Greg. You did it.
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  You got me going. You got me going.
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  Isn't that fun? How?
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  How awesome. Let me go to Al from Portland.
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  Al, how are you? Good morning.
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  Good morning, Matt. I'm outraged.
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  This is just ridiculous. And you know what?
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  I think the answer is to it is if the feds would charge him
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  federally and then I think the catch and release would end now.
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  You know, on park crimes, sometimes the feds charge you,
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  sometimes the state charges you. The feds, they wouldn't be doing
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  this. So that's that.
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  We got to get the feds in on this and get him locked up.
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  Well, I mean, get him locked up is really the thing that should
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  be the goal of everybody. So that's one of the reasons I'm
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  literally casting aspersions to everyone.
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  You know, lawmakers should be changing the law that originally
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  allowed him to get such a light sentence for that kind of a
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  crime. That should be the first thing
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  that happens. Then after that, there should be
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  attempts by law enforcement to prosecute, you know, this crime
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  in a different women. You'd say bring up the feds
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  right to go after him for charges that would be more
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  substantial if possible. Or do anything they possibly can
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  or I don't know, maybe don't give him bail.
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  Just a thought. Maybe don't give him bail, yeah.
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  I agree totally. Now the reason I was originally
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  going to call was course Shannon Bellows.
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  She's I put it that we're not going to be able to vote on this
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  transgender thing. She's not going to let that go
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  to the people. She's a string pulling witch and
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  God she needs to go. Boy I hope she isn't governor.
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  Good Lord Almighty. Tell me what you really think,
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  Al. Tell me what you really think.
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  Have a good day man. Thank you for taking my call.
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  Peace Pot Microdock. Thank you, Al.
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  Yeah, No, I think you're 100% right about that.
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  I'm not sure. Did it, did I cover that on
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  Friday? I don't remember when that when
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  that really dropped, if it was the day before or if it was
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  Friday afternoon or something like that.
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  Obviously it was, I think, I think I did get a chance to talk
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  about it on the air a little bit, but she, you know, is
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  clearly going to be bouncing that out it looks like.
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  So we'll see. All right, let me do Brian from
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  Gorham. Brian, what's going on?
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  Good morning. I'm calling about the polling we
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  discussed last week. We had some poll results from
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  827 people. That is correct.
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  And I'm just wondering how many people they had to contact
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  before they got 827 responses. And I'm going to guess it's at
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  least twice as many. Maybe it's much.
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  More than that, it's much. More than that.
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  And I I'm one of those people that doesn't respond to the
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  polls. I don't take them when they
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  call. And I'm thinking this cohort of
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  people that could be thousands are the people who don't express
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  an opinion and therefore the 827 is really meaningless.
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  Yeah, actually see if you're interested in the little inside
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  baseball, Brian, I can't tell you what the actual number is,
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  but I can tell you that in the last say 15 to 20 years, the
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  response rates of of poles has fallen from I think somewhere in
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  the neighborhood of like 10% to like 1%.
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  So not only would it be double, it would be 10 times or more the
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  number of contacts that they had to get to get to that number.
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  I mean, they, they clearly called thousands and thousands
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  of people to get to the point where they can actually get 800
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  respondents. Therefore, we shouldn't even
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  report these. Polls well, yeah.
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  We shouldn't even talk about them.
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  Polls are very. Thank you, Brian.
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  Appreciate it. Polls are very complicated, and
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  I think as you're alluding to, the construction of them matters
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  a great deal. And if they're not constructed
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  properly, the response rate thing is not necessarily a
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  reason to doubt the poll because they've always, I mean, going
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  back to the 60s or 70s, you know, when they were much more
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  reliable, you know, you always had more people not answering it
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  than answering it, a lot more people not answering it than
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  answering it. The question was whether or not
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  the sample that you got was representative of the overall
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  population you were trying to get an opinion about.
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  You know, if you're polling America, right, you need to get
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  a sample that is somewhat reflective of America and who it
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  is and what they think. And if you over sample in One
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  Direction or under sample over here or it's somehow not done
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  correctly, then you are in trouble.
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  And what pollsters typically do is they try to construct a poll
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  based on demographics, geography, age, etcetera, with a
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  universe of people that they will call.
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  And if they are noticing that the responses that they're
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  getting from a certain particular demographic area are
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  light or heavy, they will adjust the additional calls they make
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  to try to, you know, sort of ease that out a little bit.
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  Like if there's not enough young people answering this poll, the
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  next, you know, 200 calls are going to be people under the age
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  of 35 or something like that to try to get responses from that
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  group, you know, within the other categories as well, to
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  construct in the end, a sample that that is representative.
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  But in today's where the biggest problem in today's world is that
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  I'm not sure it's possible to really get a representative
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  sample anymore because the manner in which you're
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  attempting to contact people has been so sort of undermined.
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  You know, it's like nobody who I know who's on the right wing of
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  American politics will answer a poll anymore.
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  So whether that's right or wrong or fair or unfair, it's just
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  true. And if it's true, then you're
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  not really getting a pretty important subset of people to
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  answer your poll. And the ones that you do get who
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  identify like that aren't the aren't representative of the
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  ones that aren't doing it. Like if you get some sort of a
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  say, white collar suburban professional, you know, kind of
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  old school Republican that actually does answer your poll.
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  Is that really representative of, say, a Trump voter?
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  Not really, even though they both do.
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  I identify as Republicans. So there's a lot of corruptions
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  and problems in this that I think I mean, in that poll, by
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  the way, that you're talking about, it was just bad.
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  I mean, top to bottom, it was not something that I would
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  consider to be reliable, particularly once you got into
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  the party questions, you know, the, the Republican and
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  Democratic primary for governor, for instance, the sample size
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  actually dropped down to just like 300 for those because they
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  were subsections of the overall total.
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  And that's not enough for me to take it seriously.
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  So just a little polling conversation here quickly.