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Arnold Palmer Invitational PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems Gone clear, the Lift Up? What's Up? Ember one?
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Tyler Tambaline here aka Totagging Tambo back for another edition
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: of Leverage Lane here on the Ship at Nation YouTube
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Station PGA edition. My guy Alex blikel here joining me
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: as always gonna break down the Arnold Palmer Invitational from
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: his single entry perspective, my mme perspective, looking for leverage
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: and teaching you how to play, not just who to play.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Lots of picks and play shows out that you can
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: go check out.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: We'll obviously bring into it some but more looking at
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: what the field is doing, how we can leverage that.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: In bost single entry MM, it's a bit of an
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: evergreen show off the top, so we always can have
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: sort of the first fifteen twenty minutes where we talk
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: about last week, some subjects we can bring across so
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: hopefully help you become a better player. I find that's
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: a little bit better, Alex, as I bring you in
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: just you know, more than a review show of like
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: what won last week, It's kind of better to say,
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: like what did we learn?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: What can we bring forward?
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: What are some other thoughts that now I heard people
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: say after the event, or certain things like that.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: So, how you doing, my friend? What's going on? Another
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Wednesday morning? Back at it again.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Week before the Players the first new you know it's
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: a major. Now they're saying, even Russell Henley says it's
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: a major. But what's going on, my friend?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: How you doing?
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah? We we've got one more week to win tickets
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: into the Players Championship. We talked a lot about satellites
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: and last week's show, So if anyone wants to hear
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: like a fifteen to twenty minute breakdown on satellites and
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: how to play them, how we use them, and how
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: we approach them with our own different styles. I think
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: that was a really good conversation. We're gonna have some
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: some similar stuff today. But right off the bat, I
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: wouldn't say I learned something last week. It was more
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: just a reminder of, you know, even those of us
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: who have played for a long time and are very
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: very sure and confident about what our best strategy is
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: and how we like to approach DFS lineups. I built
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: a really, really, really bad single intory lineup last week.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: From the moment the tournament started and I saw my ownerships,
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: I thought, oh god, this is disgusting. I did not
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: do well, and I knew it from the get go
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: that if I did do well, it was going to
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: be lucky because I just built a really bad lineup,
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: didn't have enough separators. I was wrong about Tom Kim's ownership,
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: so like the only the only real separator that I
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: had was actually Keith Mitchell at like thirteen percent of
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: top and he was great, but I needed to be
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: like exactly right about everything else as a result, and
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: it was just ugly. And I'm very excited to have
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: a to have an approach this week that I know
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: is going to land me on some lower own guys
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: and that's gonna be my leverage lane. It's going to
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: be a much better week, hopefully. I know it's going
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: to be a better week in terms of I opened
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: the DraftKings app and be with what I've got, but
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: hopefully the results come along with Yeah, that's.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Actually going to be my topic for today.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: So last week didn't have any crazy, amazing comments or
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: anying in there that was really super thought provoking for us.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: So remember after this show ends.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: I know most of you right now are watching it
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: live as we go through it, of course, but if
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: you were watching this on playback, or wait till the end.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: After the live ends, you can leave a comment let
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: us know what you thought of the show, anything that
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: was thought provoking, or if you have a question that
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: you think we could bring forward that would be a
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: good topic for a future show. We always want the
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: first twenty or so minutes to be sort of evergreen
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: so people can go back. Like Alex said, last week
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: was the satellite version. Justin Sullivan's question, though, I'm going
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: to use this to kind of go in to my
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: point and what you just said as well, and he says,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: when speaking about separators and high confidence plays, do you
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: apply those labels to specific plays or where would you
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: consider your roster construction as a separator slash high confidence?
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: The answer is, to me at least is both, because
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: you can have a play that is a separator that
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: we always talk about and we label those in the stone.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: You guys have those with your GPP scores over at FTN.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: You got all different ways that you can find a
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: play itself as a separator because they're going to be
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: low owned, they're in a range no one's going to
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: they're squeezed between two really popular players. They could make
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: that work for you in different ways. There's all kinds
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: of ways you can look at it from that perspective.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: But what Alex just said is hopefully going in, you know,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: I know, going in, I'm gonna like what I have
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: on DraftKings, but hopefully it works out.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And I want to talk about that. I'm gonna use
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: a poker analogy.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I had a mentorship call the other day with someone
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: who's a big into poker, and so this came up.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: And it won't be for everybody, but I think most
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: people know.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: That pocket aces are a pretty good hand in poker,
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: so we could start there.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: But just noting it.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: The second part here, the construction like roster construction, a separator,
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: a high confidence factor of a tournament.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Last week we talked about it and you nailed this part.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: By the way, Alex, I know you're gonna, you know,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: take yourself down and you're always wanted to take an
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: ell if you get there on something like your lineup
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: not working out, but just saying it. You did talk
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: about like we're not gonna leave a bunch of money
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: probably at the top because we still know Shane Lowry,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: Nico Rasmus Nierguard they didn't all work out, by the way, Girard,
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: we just know that they're going to be better. And
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: when when three of the top guys go out and
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: WD before the field starts. But going from a hoe
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: down to a we looked at it yesterday to Taylor Moore,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: and I'm being very results oriented on purpose for this.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: It was like a nine point projection or something which
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: in golf on a medium projection, but on like win
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: equity and cut equity in top ten and all like.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: It wasn't as much as you would actually think where
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: it's going to destroy you. So if you were leaving
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: money on the table seven eight, nine hundred dollars something
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: like that, that's how you could get away with it,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: which you nailed that. But I said this to somebody else,
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: and the poker analogy was this. There's a lot of
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: people that recognize bankroll management being old, and so they say,
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: all right, Tambo, I'm going into the season. I know
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: there's about forty events. I got four thousand dollars to
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: run this season up, and I'm going to play one
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: hundred bucks a week, forty events, hundred bucks a week.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: That's who I am. That's my game.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: But it's a moving target in reality, right, like when
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: you're looking at it like that, Like, I think that's
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: the absolute wrong way to be doing it. Because the
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: same person I was talking too said, you know, I
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: wasn't really into it last week. I didn't have a
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: good feel for the cognizant. I didn't get to take
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: in my normal podcast input and again teach their own
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: with different content diets. But they said, I didn't get
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: to take that in. They said, I wasn't really around,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: you know, up to lock. You know, it started so
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: early this week, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: the point being they didn't feel as good yet they
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: still jammed the exact same amount of money played the game.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Just it's a fomo effect, they admitted it. They said,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: that's just the fear. Like I was, I still want
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: to play it. Trying to say, is everyone's gonna have
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: different weeks where they feel like they have pocket aces.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: You already said this week, you feel better going in,
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: and we're gonna get to it.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Your a leverage chanin will be at.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: The end of how you're playing and attacking this week
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: than maybe you did last week. And it's not about
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: last week's result. You could have the same or worse.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you could have worse if you
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: lost it all. You could lose it all, but you
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: could have the same result. And the point being everyone
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: has different feels going in. I talked about last week
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: when we have a perfect storm of an event from experience,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: where the chalk goes to die. Doesn't mean it always well,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: but I like that. Now you've got inflated ownership on
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: top of what it would have been already high ownership
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: at the top because of all the wds. You've already
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: got people building a ton of condensed lineups with all
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: the chalk. That's a week as an MME player, I love.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: I want to expose as much as possible and spoiler alert,
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: I got forty percent.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I lost forty percent of my money.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: I got it wrong, but I can promise you I
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: felt much better than the guy I was on the
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: call with going in. He felt like he had seven
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: deuce off suit, but played it anyway up against people
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: that are playing that think they have pocket aces. It's
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: not about what worked out, it's the example of that combination.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: It's like I'm playing each week differently and if he
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: had saved his money. Again, it's not about the result,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: but if he had to saved his money knowing it
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: wasn't ready to go that week. Back to your point,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: justin here of your separator, your high confidence, all of that.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Guess how you have two hundred dollars or three hundred
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: from multiple weeks you took off or didn't play as
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: much to play the weeks where you feel good about
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: it and you can apply it to that. So I
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: really think there is weeks, There is slates, There is
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: different events, showdown versus Classic, whatever, where you think there's
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: gonna be a bigger angle of attack and you feel
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: better about it. You feel like you have closer to
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: a pocket Ace's pocket. Aces get cracked too. Like I said,
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: it doesn't always work out. But just noting that and
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: leaving it there, Alex, I'll kick it back to you
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: on your thoughts. That's how I think about each week.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: And I think that's how you know a lot of
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: people leave potentially a lot of money on the table
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: because of that.
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that, and to kind of spin
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: it to you know, my own personal touch, like I
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: I have had a lot of success in Round four
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: Showdown in the last let's say year and a half,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: and I am now at the point where I'm playing
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: as much in Round four Showdown as I am on
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: main slates and as I am on Round two and
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: three combined, And so I'm really leaning into that Round
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: four edge, and honestly, like there's an argument to be
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: made that I should be playing even more on Round
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: four than I should be on main slates. But because
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think I have, like I might have
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: four top one percent finishes or top ten percent finishes
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: already this year round four something like that. So it's
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: been really successful and I can point to the edge.
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: We've got a really good Round four simulation. We're doing
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: a good job of knowing how to project a player
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: for round four based on his lead in form and
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: his performance in rounds one through three specific to each category.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: So I know that we're doing things over at FTN
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: and in my discord that a lot of people elsewhere
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: are not doing. So the edge is predictable in round four.
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: So agree with all that. And to answer the question
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: about separators, I think there are ways to have roster
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: construction as a separator, but it's important to understand when
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: that is and I think the answer is when you're
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: getting really unique like conditional ownerships. So when you can
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: look at any three guys and say, okay, they're individual
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: ownerships would suggest that they're all played together at x percent.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: But for this reason and this reason, I think it's
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: going to be like half that or a third of that.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: And so one NFL example I can give you, I
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: think that it's probably the easiest to understand in the
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: NFL is on the Thanksgiving slate the Cowboys receivers. If
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: you can remember, some people will remember others. You don't
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: have to actually remember this slate. I just just know
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: the math of what I'm talking about. But the Cowboys
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: receivers were both very popular, and Dak Prescott was popular,
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: but Ceedee Lamb was even more popular than Pickens, and
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: specifically outside of Cowboy Stacks, Cede Lamb was still like
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: forty five percent owned and Pickens was under ten percent owned.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: Within Cowboy Stacks, they were both around sixty percent owned.
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: So there was this very clear like conditional ownership of Hey,
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: if you don't have Dak, you're getting Pickens at really
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: low ownership. You're not competing with many Pickens lineups outside
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: of DAK lineups. And so if you get the runout
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: where Dallas doesn't do very well offensively and specifically like
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: they do a good job against Ceedee Lamb, and consequently
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: Pickens has the big game and maybe it's you know,
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: eight receptions for one hundred and fifty yards but no
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: touchdowns and the offense doesn't score a bunch of touchdowns,
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: you're getting a fantastic separator, not because he's low owned overall,
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: but because he's low owed in the type of lineup
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: construction that you have. And so when we talk about
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: a lot of time, like, okay, the field is going
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: to do this, the field is going to have two
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: guys over ten K, and we can be different by
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: not using anyone there and going hard on the nine
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: K range and getting four guys in the nine K range.
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: What we're saying there is there are going to be
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: so few lineups that have that combination of nine K
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: guys that even though they're all ten to fifteen percent,
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: that combination is going to be really unique. And so
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: if two of those guys or three of those guys
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: all do well together, they're becoming separators, even though their
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: individual ownership doesn't really make them so. So I think
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: that's a conversation that we've had a lot, and it's
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: a great question because it allowed us to kind of
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: expand on why that is such an advantage when you
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: get that unique combination.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's the good. The best way to put
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: it with the bath is everything you just said.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: I would also just say too, sometimes it's a bit
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: of the thought process of how you're playing it, and
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: I could tie it to right now, somebody just asked, Uh,
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: where was it Phil. Let's say we decided to go
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: one hundred percent Scotty, what would be your next steps
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: in order to make sure you separate yourself?
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Well, what are others doing? It leaves about seventy one
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: hundred left.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: I know a lot of people are gonna be playing Ryan,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: Girard and Nico because they drop from ten.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Thousand dollars range ish down to seventy two hundred dollars.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: So don't play all three of those guys together. Could
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: it still work out? Yeah? You can.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: You still get different with those three together. Yes, But
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: it's just noting that, like that's kind of the angle.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: What if you went Scotty multiple six k's and then
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: up higher into the seven K range. Now you're just
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: playing a different roster construction with Scotty, And back to
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Justin's question off the top, that's a way where you
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: could feel good about a roster construction that's different, and sometimes,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: by the way, you won't feel good about it. We've
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: talked about it a ton on those weeks where you're
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: skipping the entire nine K range and you're like, but man,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: there's like five guys in the nine K range that
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: everybody loves that I feel like I'm missing out. You
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: are missing out, but you might not be. I mean
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: what you might be missing out on is the bombs.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: The chalk bombs are something that hurt you and you
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: end up having the winner of the tournament and all
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: the value play options down below that make that play
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: work a la Scotti the last two seasons that we've
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: seen when those wins that he's had, so yo, that
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: happens sometimes. So just just make sure you're looking at
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: something like that. Anything else come real quick.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: That's that's another thing that we can, I think use
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: NFL because it's obviously like so many people who play
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: pgadfs also play nfldfs, so there's a there's a concept
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: here that I think is really important. As you just mentioned,
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: like sometimes it doesn't feel good because there are guys
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: in your lineup that you don't have that you think
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: are really good plays. But PGA is different than NFL.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: When you think of like the best NFL plays that
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: you're afraid that you don't have in your lineup, think like,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: you know, a really chalky Jamiir Gibbs around on our
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: Saint Brown when the Lions are indoors and have a
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: thirty two point team total or something like that, right,
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: their probability of success is very, very high. It's well
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: over fifty percent. The probability of smashing and being someone
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: that like you really really need in your lineup to
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: have a chance for a takedown, it's probably twenty five
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: percent thirty percent minimum, and it might be as high
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: as fifty percent. But you don't see that in PGA.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at our top five odds from our simulations,
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: and you know, outside of Scotty, there are two guys
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: at twenty percent. Everyone else is at like thirteen percent
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: to five percent. Even top ten odds, most guys are
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: between fifteen and twenty five. So when you're really really
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: scared of fading someone in PGA, you don't have to be.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: The most likely outcome is that fading them does not
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: hurt you, and it it a lot of the time,
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: is even more likely to help you than it is
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: to hurt you. Like even someone like Patrick Cantlay, who's
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: near the top in our miscutodds seventeen percent to miss
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: the cut, ten percent for a top ten, twenty percent
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: for a top twenty for sorry I said that wrong,
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: ten percent for a top five, twenty percent for a
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: top ten, So he's slightly more likely to finish top
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: ten then he is to miss cut to miss the cut,
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: and he's one of the better players in the field
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: with one of the higher may cut projections. It's just
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: a very very different kind of range of outcomes for
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: players in PGA because there are so many guys in
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: each tournament.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, the chat's talking a little bit
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: more in these questions, like yo yobi, I mean, we
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: appreciate you don't have to throw any money out as
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: you have questions you can ask him away, but like
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: you won't won't hear a ton about this type of stuff,
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: like you know, well, we'll talk about it some but
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: these are more things you're gonna find on picks and
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: play shows. I know our guy Gannon was out of
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: the course, you know, he looked at JT, I looked
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: at Sung Jay, guys that are just coming back and
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: that sort of thing. I think he was higher on
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: JT than he was on My boy Sung Jays that
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: Sun Jay still got the wrist strap on will h
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: will Willie Willcox, sorry, the the caddy there. He had
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: spoke to him and he said, I don't know if
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: he's swung on grass for six months, so it's like, yeah,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: he's coming back, but there's these are you know, signature events.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Big boy guaranteed everything, so they're gonna try him out.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: It's, you know, obviously a little bit different than playing
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: DFS or something. He has to actually quote fitly play.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: But if it doesn't fully work out, there's always outs there.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: But you never know. We've seen guys say it's their
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: worst week ever and then come out and have a
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: great week.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: So it's tough to say on that. But I don't
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: think I have too much else to add on any
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: of the other stuff there. Do you have anything else
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: you want to talk about from last week? Anything topical.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: If not, do you want to just go right into
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: sort of this week with course fit weather the event
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: at hand.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: There's there's one thing I think we can we can
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: kind of expand on last week's satellite conversation and say
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: we are we're now one week away from the Players.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: Are you going to have your typical allignment of satellites
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: or are you spending a little bit extra since it's
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: the last chance to get a ticket into the Players.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I didn't have to spend a lot to get in
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: because I got mine so early, So I'm debating just
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: not doing much crazy, like I'll play the same for sure.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: But I didn't even see it's a forty four to
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: forty four, so it's not like the thirty three thirty
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: three where they might put up like a mega or
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: something like that.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: But I didn't see the two seventy six.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: I'm just double checking it or anything like that where
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: they were going to have ten seats or anything along
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: those lines. There is multiple seventy dollars and thirty seven dollars,
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: so yeah, the thirty seven is about to sell out,
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: so I'm buying that now. But yeah, I'm not doing
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: much different than I usually would I'll probably play four
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: thirty sevens, maybe the seventy times four right, two and two,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: and then I think I already got in the thirteen
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: dollars as well, Max, So yeah, I'll probably have like
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: my normal eighteen lineups and move them across all of those.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: If my final lineup I really like after this conversation
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: thinking about my lane and all that sort of stuff,
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: I might move one in on a seventy like all
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: three of them or something like it.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Get it in that way, But for the most part,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: probably fifteen to eighteen eighteen shows nice.
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: I will definitely be playing every showdown just to have
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: that extra chance at the seventy dollars. But that's the
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: only change I'm going to make, and the main reason
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: for that is for me to spend more to have
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: a better chance. I'd have to go to the one
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: hundred and seventy six dollars qualifier, but only has twenty
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: eight people in it, and that's just smaller than what
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: I think is best for my strategy, where I'm going
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: for a top one percent finish, I don't want to
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: play for a top you know, four percent finish, uh it. Obviously,
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: the lineups would be similar, But I just I have
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: a I just think it's it's smarter, it's more disciplined
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: to stick to the contest that I usually do and
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: make sure that I'm playing my own strategy. And you
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: know that obviously, like it's still unlikely if I played
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy six then I finish first of
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: twenty eight. So it's not like playing that extra hundred
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: and seventy six dollars makes it significantly more likely for
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: me to actually win a ticket. My lineup is usually
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: either very good or it's not good enough. And and
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: you know, playing the one hundred and seventy six instead
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: of the seventy and the thirty seven, so on and
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: so forth, it just doesn't raise my probability of winning
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: one of those tickets high enough where I want to
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: deviate from my typical strategy. Now, what I might do is,
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: let's say that I have a lineup where I love
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: the first five guys. I know, hey, these five are
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: one hundred percent in my lineup, and I'm just torn
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: on the on the sixth spot. Maybe what I'll do
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: is I'll spend extra on a second seventy dollars entry,
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: and now I'll have one with you know, this guy
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: in as the last guy and another with the other
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: guy in it as the last guy something like that.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: So I'm not a post to that type of thing,
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: but I'm not gonna deviate from my typical strategy.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll talk course and weather for the API here.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: In just one second, I'll tidy up that and we
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: can move on. But just the other thing, somebody asked
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: me this this week, and it kind of goes with
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: what you were just talking about.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Also, I'm not attacking.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: The thirty three thirty three right now while I own
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: a forty four to forty four ticket and it's next week.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: It's yes, the same lineup could still win those as well,
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: and I could add those into it and et cetera,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: et cetera, but I'm moving the money in on what
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: can get me the most upside next week. Obviously, i'd
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: rather have three entries than just the one. So I'm
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: gonna be doing the same as you mentioned in showdown.
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: I'm still gonna be chasing to get in there, but
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: most on the main slide it's the same focus, just
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: because I don't really need to change anything. I oh
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: those other weeks that I didn't win tickets. I've had seconds,
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I've had thirds. It's I've had the close calls as well,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: whether it's in main or showdown along the way since
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: getting that first ticket. But I'm gonna try everything I
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: can to get those. Right now, we'll have a month
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: and tons of different factors and ways to get in
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: for the thirty three thirty three for the Masters, So
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: I'm not as concerned about that right now.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: People.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, it seems maybe common sense or second nature,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: but it's more also valuable when you already have one,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: and it gets more valuable the more you add to
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: that one.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: So for me, that's gonna be the focus for this week.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to this week. Let's talk about
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: the course. Let's talk about the weather.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: I know you've got that up there, but first off,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: if you want to break down, I mean, obviously we
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: know this course quite well.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: You know what sort of fits it. But there is
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: some talks you know, a bit, the longer the rough.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: Even on Tuesday being longer than usual, and all these
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: different factors and bombers versus accuracy, versus approach versus. Some
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: of the guys are grinding the thick rough around the greens,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: what sort of your thoughts on the course, course fit,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: and then take us in the weather.
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: So I love this golf course and I think it's
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: one of the most demanding on tour. And it's worth
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: pointing out that a lot of the course fit signal
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: here is based on how firm the greens have played.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: In the last few years, probably the last like five
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: years or something like that, this has been the course
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: but the most consistently firm, difficult greens on tour, and
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: that's been kind of like its signature, and it's one
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: of the reasons why it has been one of the
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: toughest golf courses on tour. It's especially been one of
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: the tough golf courses in terms of the frequency of
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: bogie's and doubles made. There are still plenty of birdie opportunities,
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: which I think makes it an even more fun watch
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: where it's like guys can score, but they're also going
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: to get punished whenever they make real mistakes. So love
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: this golf course. Distance is very predictive here, accuracy is
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: very predictive here, iron play is extremely predictive here, And
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: it's worth mentioning like what a unique combination that trio
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: is because what we typically is if distance is really predictive,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: that steals from accuracy. If accuracy is really predictive, it
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: steals from distance, and it also steals from approach play.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: Why because if it's really important that you drive the
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: ball well, and you're someone who doesn't drive the ball well,
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: it doesn't matter how good your approach play is. You're
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: not able to take advantage of that skill set because
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: you didn't drive the ball well enough on a course
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: that's demanding that you drive the ball accurately. So that trio,
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: it's a trio that really like eats itself most of
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: the time where you can't see all three spiked together,
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: and you do see them spike together here, or at
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: least you see all three of them being very predictive,
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: and so, like I said, that's really unique. It makes
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: it a ball striker's course. It's also a place where
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: you really don't need around the green. And it's not
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: so much that you're not going to have to play
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: well and execute around the green, it's that there's just
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: no real predictability in terms of who's going to do
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: well around the green because it's a course where it's
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: it's really hard to manage your miss as well. So
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: think of like the approach play on sixteen. I think
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: I use this exact example talking with Pat about it.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: Where there's water short, think of eight as well. There's
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: water short, you have a miss that you absolutely cannot make,
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: and so the miss that you have to make is long,
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: but long in both instances is a really tough up
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: and down, so you don't get the opportunity to, you know,
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: approach an approach shot with the mindset of if I miss,
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: where do I want to miss? And if if you're watching,
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: you know, a typical PGA broadcast, and you get those
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: moments where they're doing a really nice job of letting
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: you listen in on the caddy discussion. That's one of
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: the most common things that you're going to hear is okay,
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: where where do I want to miss this? If I
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: miss this is an easier up and down from the
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: from the front bunker than the right bunker or something
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: like that, or the or you you don't want to
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: miss long, So let's let's aim you know, three paces
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: short of the pin. Make sure that we're not going deep.
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: You can't do that here on most of the holes.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: So many of these holes you lose control of where
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: you miss, and so your ability to get up and
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: down is a lot more random than usual. And it's
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: also because the rough is so deep, you lose a
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: lot of the like the skill signal of how well
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: can you spin the ball, how well can you clip
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: the ball and control your height off of you know,
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: tight lies. Everyone's just kind of chopping out from this
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: really deep rough. And so all of that combines to
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: say around the green play is not it's not predictive here.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: It's really just how well can you drive the ball
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: with both aspects long and straight of course is always good,
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: but it's especially rewarding here that combination. And then you
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: also want to be a good iron player.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: Also, when you know they're having to fight from around
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: the green, it probably means not going very well for them,
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: because when it's so predictive on approach and being able
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: to play out of the fair way and that sort
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: of thing like that, if somebody's having to play out
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: of the green or out of around the green, a
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: bunch that's not going to be well or bode well
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: typically for their overall And that works in showdown as well.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: I know, and a lot of people are lo at
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: showdown stats like, yeah, well that their approach was off.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: They're around the green.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: Is that It's like, yeah, but now if they fix
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: that approach tomorrow, you're not gonna be worried about kneeding
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: that around the green and you're gonna need a spike
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: slash ceiling type score. So you can kind of erase
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: that and let that slip away in that example, go ahead.
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And one of the other things that you know
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: I mentioned early on there is that this is of
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: course that although it has really high bogie and double rates,
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: it's also of course that like it's it doesn't have
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: low birdy rates. And so to your point there, it's like,
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: when you're playing well, when your ball striking is on,
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: you're going to hit a fair amount of greens. You're
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: gonna have a lot of birdy opportunities. And if you're
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: missing those greens, you're not just missing greens where you're
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: struggling to make par where the whole field is struggling
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: to make par. You're struggling to make par on holes
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: where some of the field is likely giving themselves birdy
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: opportunities and maybe even scoring on that hole. So that's
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: that's not true on every hole eight nine, Like the
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: field's not making birdies there. Number two, the field's not
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: making birdies there. But there there are there are holes
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: where the field is making and you need to be
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: at least giving yourself opportunities from time to time on
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: those holes as well.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, what do you got on the weather?
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: I know we hit it off a little bit off
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: the top just mentioning it, But what do you want.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: To bring up here with this? Just so everybody can
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: go through it.
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: So at the moment where we're seeing pretty consistent like
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: Thursday to Friday, where there's not a ton of sustained
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: wind throughout, but gusts kind of do pick up a
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: little bit throughout the day, there it seems like there
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: might be a little bit of storm concern, But I'm not.
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: I don't want to even, you know, try to pretend
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: that I can predict that. The thing I do want
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: to point out is the difference between the sustained winds
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: and the gusts and how this very much raises the
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: kind of range of outcomes and the uncertainty for what
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: we're actually going to see from the weather. Because when
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: we have something like you know, this two hour window
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: here where the sustained is seven to eight, gusts are
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: low to mid twenties. What we could see there is
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: the gusts don't really come and it's calm and it's scorable,
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: and maybe the afternoon on Thursday really doesn't play much
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: more difficult than the morning, and so we end up
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: with a wave advantage there if the winds do show
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: up in the afternoon on Friday. The other thing we
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: could see here is that it's actually just sustained more
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: towards the gusts, and it plays really difficult on Thursday,
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: and we don't quite get the level of gusts on Friday.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: And then there's also this middle where it is just
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: gusty and you're going to hit some shots where it's
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: not that windy, and then you're gonna hit some shots
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: where the gust is up and you know when you're
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: hitting the ball that it's tough and you have to
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: play the wind. But there are also gonna be shots
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: where you think that you're hitting in a ten mile
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: per hour wind, but up in the air or around
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: the green, it's twenty and it really kills your ball
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: and you're left, you know, stimied in the fairway, just
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: wondering what the hell just happened. And so it's a
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: really kind of wide range of outcomes, and I actually
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: think the most difficult would be that third option where
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: it's not sustained. You can't just play for every shot
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: because if these guys know that there's a twenty mile
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: prour wind, yes it's still more difficult, but they're really
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: good players and they can adjust for that twenty mile
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: proer wind. If they think they're hitting in ten and
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: they're actually hitting in twenty, they're gonna get screwed. The
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: wind's gonna kill their shot. They've got no chance in
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: that scenario. So really kind of wide range of outcomes.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: And what we're gonna do over at FTANNA is we're
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: gonna have our our tournament simulation kind of account for
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: all the different probabilities and all the different scenarios where
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: sometimes the simulation is gonna run where there's a half
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: stroke advantage for Thursday morning, and then there's gonna be
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: you know, a twenty five percent chance that is running
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: when it's a one stroke advantage in the opposite direction,
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: and so kind of you're just making sure we have
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: all our bases covered throughout our sims.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk about this chalk lineup.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: We always go through it here and we're gonna talk
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: from a single entry perspective, and so you know your expertise,
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: and I think it's always good for me just trying
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: to chime in look at it and see what I see.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: But what are you seeing right now for the build
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: and say something like single entry? And are you seeing
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: a one time version of it like it's it's with
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: with Scotty or without or there's still the classic you know,
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: there's a Rory version, or there's a Scotti version and
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: then there's a this version. What are you seeing this
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: week just walking into it?
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's harder to say this week that it's
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: going to be like Scotty versus No Scotty, because I
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: think it's going to be pretty spread out amongst the
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: top and so certainly we're going to see way more
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: non Scotty lineups than Scotty lineups. Right now we've got
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: them projected at twenty one percent in single entries. But
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: the difference I think is, you know, in in the
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: less few Scotty instances when people have gone away from Scotty,
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: it's been okay, Like now we're going two of these
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: three guys. It's like everyone's starting with two of these
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: three guys. But we've got Rory, Tommy fitz Morikawa see
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: wu Hideki getting some, Xander's still going to get some,
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: Hilly's still gonna get some. So it's more spread out
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: up top where it's harder to really pinpoint exactly what
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: people are going to I think the the part we
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: actually may want to start on for where the chalk
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: is is down in this like six to low seven
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: K range, where we've got Nikolai Hoygard potentially the highestone player.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: Right now, we do have him projected as the highestone
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: at twenty nine percent in single entry, but then also
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: Gerard twenty two percent, Keith Mitchell seventeen percent, Corey Conner's
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: twelve JJ spawn even at twelve percent, I'm finally off
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: of him. So I like the fact that the field
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: might be on him here. But that's a lot of ownership.
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: And remember we were talking about like that conditional ownership
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: kind of up at the top and in ways to separate, well,
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: the conditional ownership here that's worth thinking about is if
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: Nikolai is twenty nine percent overall, he's what forty percent
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: you think in Scotty lineup something like that.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he's in a lot of things though,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: because he fits the Rory lineups perfectly.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: He fits the fit, fits the fits.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: And I like Andrew's pointer. He says Roy and Fitz
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: leaves you seventy one hundred, just Scotty leaves you. And
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: I know it's like seventy one eighty like at all
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: rounds whatever, but feels like a lot would prefer the
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: Rory fitth But to your point of if you just
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: go Scotty, Hoguard, Girard, Mitchell, which looks like the three
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: most popular down there, a couple of them for very
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: good reason, Hoguard and Girard, like I said that those
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: prices are just off, and even Mitchell, you can make
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: a case more after last week at ninety three hundred.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: No matter how you shake that out. There's a ton
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: of different versions that you can get to. That kind
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: of makes some sense. So I'm not sure where that
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: leaves you, but I definitely agree with him that it
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: does seem like more would end up going that way,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: and we could see a bit of that shift.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: We'll see. But I think the thing about.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: The bottom Hogard, Girard and Mitchell too, but just noting
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: those two at seventy two hundred and then fits up top.
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: It's because Maddy fits every lineup. He can start it.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: You could be the second guy in, you can go
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: with Rory. He kind of do anything that you want
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: with him. I do think, you know, maybe min.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Wu gets a boost, maybe Cooty a little bit.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: You know, I don't know if you've see any others,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: but those those are kind of the ones that stood out,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: so we can kind of build from there.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Cooty will be popular. I do think
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: the field's going to be back in on Shane Lowry,
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: by the way, despite his collapse. I think it's weird because,
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: like you know, let's say three four years ago, after
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: a collapse like that, Lowry would have been eight percent
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: and he would have been like a sneaky play to
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: go right back to. And now I feel like so
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: much of the field thinks that way that he's going
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: to be more popular than people expect because people just
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: automatically assume, oh, after a collapse like that and know
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: whate's gonna play him. Yeah, they are number number one
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: because he still projects well, and number two because enough
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: people are thinking that he's sneaky that he's actually not
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: that sneaky.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: Where do people drop this down? Then I'll give you
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: the chalk and we you know, we usually don't do
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: like a foal. But at the end of the day,
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: I don't even mind. I'm not playing this lineup. I
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: can tell you that much so, and I don't think
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: you are either. It is uh, you can fit this perfectly.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: It is Fleetwood fits min Wu, Coody, Gerard Hoguard. What
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: does that leave zero dollars, that's the spend, it's you get.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: I just looked at Hoguard and Girard because I figured
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: they're the most popular. I had Keith Mitchell, but I
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: couldn't find this version. And then I go and look
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: at the other guys that are popping in that mid range.
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: It's Minwu and Cootie and so because you already have
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: the two seventy two hundred dollars guys in there, and
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: then it just becomes.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood.
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure like if you can quite get there,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: Like I don't think you can bring Minwu down to
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: Keith Mitchell. That only gives you eleven four. You're a
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: couple hundred bucks off unless you've got other guys up
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: the middle like Stroker or whoever else you think can
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: sort of fit that. But anyway, this will be duped
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: a ton of times this week because it's already a
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: shortened field and that's kind of the mock loven type
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: lineup in fields of twenty or less to just say hey,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: or maybe even one hundred or less to say hey,
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: I'll do this.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: It's the best dump paper. It projects very well.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: Why don't you go find a lineup that beats me
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: and I'll let you try and make mistakes. But yeah,
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: that's our optimal right now. Kenny already pulled it to
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: see and I didn't have it. I didn't have it
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: up fully, but just pulling it now, I was looking
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: at it quickly.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this brings a couple of things to mind.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: The first is you mentioned the fact that, like you know,
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: Nick Lai fits any type of build, but by no
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: means in my saying, you know that he's going to
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: be low owned outside of Scotty lineups. She's just going
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: to be crazy, crazy owned within Scotty line she'll still
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: be you know, minimum of twenty five percent if he's
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: around thirty percent overall outside of Scotty lineup. So and
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: this is a really good, you know example of why
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: that is because he absolutely fits everything. It's it's more
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: so that if you have Scotty, there just aren't enough
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: ways to build a lineup like without Nikolai or Gerard,
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: that they have to be crazy, crazy high owned within
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineup. So that's kind of point number one here,
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: and then point number two is with so many build
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: types kind of fitting these guys, their ownership floor is
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: really really low. But also, like I don't necessarily think
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: that Nikolai especially is a bad play just because there
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: are like there there are plenty of guys throughout let's
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: say the eight K range. In fact, I think the
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: AK range is like really really strong, an underground where
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: you can build a lineup with let's say like three
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: or four separators and Nikolai and you're gonna be just
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: fine that way.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got the I don't know if maybe Kenny
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: wasn't look at the latest, but we just updated it.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: So I got this one. This one's three points better.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: Let me give you a three v three on that.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: It keeps Hoguard, Gerard, and Min Wu, but it swaps.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Who did I have before?
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Sorry, So it swaps Fleetwood, Bits and Cootie to Rory,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Sea Wou and Mitchell. So Mitchell popular at the bottom.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: Sea Woo's still getting some love at ninety two. People
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: can pick their poison if it's somebody else they like
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: their whatever, but at least to get it gets you
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: the Rory version, which again the main thing holding true,
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: and we're gonna talk about leverage and that sort of stuff.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: You know, the eight K range is just not going
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: to get played very much here no matter how you
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: shake it out.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: It's really tricky to get to.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: So just looking at it from this perspective, you could
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: move Sea Wu and Min Wu into eight K guys,
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: but then you're still gonna have the very popular Hogard,
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Gerard and Mitchell trio, if not two of those three
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: in a lineup together with a popular guy up top
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: in Rory. So give me any more thoughts on that
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: and then we can kind of, you know, take it
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: from there.
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this this tweek makes a lot of sense,
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: and it's it's gonna be something that a lot of
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: people do, because I think Mitchell's also like a really
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: really good play. I've got a question for you that
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: I think kind of stems perfectly from this because as
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: we're seeing as we build these, like you just said,
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: it's really hard to get to the eight K range.
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: So my question for you is, as we go through
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: the nine k so Xander Fitz, Colin Henley, Hidecki, Sea Wou,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: Cam Young McIntyre, and then we get to the eights
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: with English can't lay Griffin, Knapp, Hoveland, Oberg, got her up, Kiddyama,
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: Lowry Burns, where to you is the biggest tear break
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: where it's like, okay, where we clearly are now talking
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: about guys who aren't as good as the guys above them.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Hmmm, that's a good question. That's like I'm probably still
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: good with man.
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: I guess for me, it's kind of more spread out,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: like I have them in buckets, Like it's it's almost like, okay,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: you go down to I don't know, let's say, you know,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Cam Young, Sea Wou range, and then maybe I skipped
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: to Cantlea or or English Can't Lay in there, and
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: then I skip down to you know, the Hovelins, the Kiddiyamas,
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: the Lowry's, those guys and you know, and then I
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: skip down again to something in the you know, cooty
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: and below range. It's I would say, that's kind of
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: how I'm thinking about it right now, but tough to
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: say overall. I thought you were gonna ask me who
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: is the better chalk between Hogard and Gerard if you
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: can only pick one, and it still feels like Nikolay
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: is the better one.
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: You know, if I had to pick, Yeah, that's that's
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: also a good question asking. I'm I'm in agreement there.
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: When we when we get to my leverage lane, I
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: think it'll be even more clear why I I like
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Nikolai there instead of Gerard. But I asked this question
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: to you because I kind of feel similarly similarly as
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: you do. Where I would say, there's a tear break
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: under ten where Scottie, Rory, Xander and and Tommy to
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: me seem like the very clear, like you know, cream
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: of the crop in this in this event in this field,
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: and then I don't see that much of a difference
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: below that. Yeah, you've got Fits and Colin, but I
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: don't see a huge difference between those guys and Can't
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: lay Nap. I don't see a huge difference between like
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: the you know, Sea Wu Camyong McIntyre English and Kitty
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: Yama Lowry Burns down in the in the low eights.
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: So that to me says Okay, that means that the
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: eight K range under owned or low owned, I should say,
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: is is really being overlooked because there's not that much
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: of a difference between talent and expectation for those guys
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: in the nine K range. But the nine K range
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: is getting played a lot the eight K range is not.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's very clear. Like to me, some
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: of those guys you'd said they're like.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Can't lay Nap, Kidiyama, those guys, I actually like all
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: those guys. So I'll find ways to get there in
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: my lineups and maybe even in single entry. Again not
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: my lane specifically, but just noting it. Maybe you know,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: it could be right a couple eight K guys could
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: be my lane very well at the end of this
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: because I think at the end of the day there
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: I like that point that you made. Definitely those top
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: three I like Xander actually coming into the show. I
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: did say pre shaw, I'll spoil it now. I got
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: that was sort of what I was thinking, because I've
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: been playing them already and I'm gonna be playing I'm
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: in the mme stuff, which we've kind of, you know,
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: talked about last week flipping is to have some of
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: that side of it. I just don't know if I'll
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: have to go there for single Entry, because there's probably
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: still ways that I can get to one of those
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: top three and build down and get a lineup that
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: I really like without committing too much to those like
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: you know, we talk about ways to leverage the chalk
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: build for me. You know, in single entry you're only
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: playing single Lenjry, But for me, it's I'm gonna be
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: looking at not playing three and four of those guys
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: down at the bottom.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I love this week, and I'm I'm very much
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: entertaining him for single Entry. So if you've got conviction there,
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: I definitely think that he he should not be this
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: much lower owned than the guys around him, Fits and
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: Tommy especially, So I like that. And I mean, coming
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: into the week, I thought Hobland at eighty five hundred
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: dollars was going to be one of the more popular
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: plays in the slate and he's not, so that makes
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: him really intriguing to me. I'm typically anti Oberg, but
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: I think he's a pretty good play this week and
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: then got her up. Has been as good as anybody
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: to start the season. Only eighty three hundred dollars, and
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: it doesn't look like he's going to be super chalky.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: So this whole range to me just like it's under
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: owned guy after under owned guy, and there's also outside
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: of Hoveland there there's another commonality between all the guys
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: that that I just mentioned that a bit of a
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: you know, if if you're really paying attention, you might
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: already know what my leverage lane is going to be.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I have a question too, if you could only pick one.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Obviously can do whatever you want, but when you're playing
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: single hectory, you kind of got to make some of
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: these choices. We did the game down below with with.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Hogard and Gerard.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Let me ask you this, though it's up top Tommy
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: or Fits, both are looking to come in somewhere, you know,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: let's see right now, just a quick glance here, somewhere
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: in that twenty percent range. And again I just said,
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: both of them can work in different ways. I told
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: you like an optimal version where they can actually be
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: played together. But you know, Fitzpatrick or Fleetwood, the f
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: could stand for fraud for at least one of them.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: Which which one are you're.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Rolling with here?
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: If you got to pick one, assuming the five hundred
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: dollars isn't super important for me, it's Tommy because I
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: as well as Fitzpatrick has played, I don't think there's
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: a chance that he's one of the three best players
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: in the world right now. There is a chance that
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: Tommy is that now. Our projections are actually lower than
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: I expected on Tommy, And the reason for that is
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: you look at what he's done so far this year.
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: It's been really really dependent on around the greenplay. The
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: bass striking hasn't been outstanding the way it was to
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: finish last season. And then the other aspect of that
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: is last season when you look at you know what
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: he was doing when he won the Tour championship and
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: when he was finishing third and fourth and second leading
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: into that so often there was a ton of putting, putting,
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: driving things, and so do I think that Tommy is
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: now like one of the absolute best putters in the
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: world after that being one of the things that helped
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: him back, especially once he got into contention a year
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: after year after year. No, I think that's probably gonna regress,
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: and that's what our model is saying. Our model just says,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: you know what, Rory, Xander and Scotty have made it
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: to the very top in ways that are a little
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: bit more dependable than what it took for Tommy to
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: get there. So our models actually higher on Xander than Tommy,
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: which is why I like Xander so much. But Tommy
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: is still the one to me where between he and Fitzpatrick,
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: if one of those guys is actually a top three
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: player in the world, it's Tommy.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, your your boys JJ Spawn and Connor's down
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: below become separators this week to some of that chalk
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: that's down there, so you can fit them into some
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: of these builds as well. But I'm not sure if
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: you're going back to the well on them or maybe
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: now you're you're over the Spawn guy. But Connor's, you know,
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: if he gets that approach game going, it's just can
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: he make a pot? We know how that works out usually,
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: but it's it's possible.
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: I'm more interested in Connors, but this is another instance,
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: where like once we get to my levige lane, it'll
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: be a little bit clear why I'm not as into
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: Spawn and Connors.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one note on this, Sean Wand I like that
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: the Don Juan. We got the Sean Juan for twenty
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: smoke one. He says with with Gerard twenty two percent,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: why not play Nico Hogard at the same price. It's
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: because the Nico is probably actually gonna be higher owned
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: than Gerard, So you're not really getting any type of
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: separator there.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: But just noting that and we can.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, don't have to name them, but we talk
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: about That's one of the things that's nice, you know,
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: for Alex and I doing our own thing and even
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: being parts of different companies and that sort of thing.
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: If you're not keeping your finger on the pulse around
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: the industry to know what's going on, you're definitely behind.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: That's part of what our stuff is able to do
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: and think about and leverage and get after that. So
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I think from that perspective, Yeah, there is certain sites
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: out there that are liking certain projected are projecting players better,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: which is leading to more projected ownership, which is what
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: more people are following and that's one of the benefits
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: of just getting a little bit different and joining a
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: community like one of ours or both, because you can
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: you can play them about, you can put them both together,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: like we all say, you can play them both. You
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: can join Alex's Discord, you can join FDN, you can
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: join ship at Nation. All the options are out there
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: to put those things together and mix and match.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: But everyone has different budgets. I get it.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: But just knowing that, I was gonna say, you put
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: all those together and it might not be as expensive
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: as the one that's putting spawn at twenty percent. But
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: we've got We've got Spawned at twelve percent, and he
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: is one that I'm monitoring. But again I don't want
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: to I don't want to spoil a leverage lane. But
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: one thing I will say ahead of time, which it's
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: going to be another hint but I won't give it away,
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: is the field is definitely kind of in on this
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: idea that Bayhill has become a course where accuracy might
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: matter even more than distance, And that to me is
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: I think why Spawn is projecting to be somewhat chalky,
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: because he's one of the more accurate guys off the
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: tee and particularly he's one of the more accurate guys
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: in terms of how many fairways he hits, because he's
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: also short off the tee. And so the reason for
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: this is because obviously the rough has played very difficult
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: here and the greens are incredibly firm. So even when
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: you have a good enough lie to actually advance the
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: ball to the green, you have no chance of holding
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: the greens here. So there is a premium on hitting fairways,
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: and that I think is really driving a lot of
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: ownership this week. And it's partially why you know, you
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: get Tommy at twenty percent, Fits at twenty two percent,
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: Xander at twelve percent. What's the biggest difference between those guys?
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: Xander's long there, they they hit more fairways than he does.
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: That doesn't in my mind, that doesn't make them more
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: accurate off the Tevean Xander and Anders's actually been driving
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: the ball very accurately this year. But uh, that's that's
• 46:12
  Speaker 3: a conversation for fifteen minutes from now.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and nobody's playing Decky.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know it's somebody is, but you get
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: what I mean, Like that's you're you're gonna be fine.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: But that's pretty much how that always goes. Kenny brought
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: it up again, especially in like the higher stakes single
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: entry stuff. You're gonna see those guys be very popular.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: You can get different above them, like if you have
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: a Xander DECKI whatever fits line them, Like, sure you
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: you can play them in a different way. It's just
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: you know, you're playing into guys that just you know,
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: big time ownership already, and then you're jumping on top
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: of that as well.
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: That's a that's a good question as well. If if
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: you don't want to play those guys, if you don't
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: want to play Nikolai, Gerard Mitchell, throw Spawn and uh
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: and Connors in there as well. Are you more likely
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: to pivot to guys like in their price range Harry Hall,
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: Nico Echiveria, Sam Stevens, Nick Taylor, Sepstraca, Ryan Fox, Daniel Berger,
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: Or are you trying to build a line if that
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: just a voids that like let's say sixty seven to
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: seventy five range, and maybe you bottom out it's someone
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: like a Jason Day or Adam Scott in a super
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: balanced lineup, or maybe you even take a chance on
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: you know, someone way down the board like a Putnam
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: or Novak or something like that, and and just totally
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: avoid that range.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to avoid them.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna be very I said this last week
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: was last week's joke, gonna be very cognizant of how
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: I use them. And so for me, it's gonna come
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: up in my lane because already I'm there now. So
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna be using those guys still, It's just
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: gonna be using them carefully. The main reason is, like
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: I like anything can happen, but I'm not as in
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: love with like going again. It has nothing do with
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: him winning last week and the ceilings spiking all up,
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: like I'm not as in love with like a Nico,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: Harry hall A, Daniel Berger, Taylor Pendrith. These guys all
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: could pop at any time and an MMY set, yes,
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: But when we're you know, sticking a single entry for
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: two seconds here, I think for me, that's gonna be
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: something where I'm gonna just be willing to play, you know,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: one or couple if I'm.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Getting enough different in my lineup or up top.
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: Almost back to Justin's question off the very top, if
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at it, I'd be looking at the latter
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: part the second part of this, where it's like a
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: separator or high confidence roster construction decision more than just
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: moving off and looking for a separator off of a
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: certain play.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: To answer your question.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: I may have asked it poorly, but I'm in agreement
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: with you that I'm more likely to just, you know,
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: play my favorites of these guys and then get different
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: around them. But my question is, if you're already set
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: on not using these guys, are you, would you prefer
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: to pivot right off of them or just avoid the
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: price range as a whole so that you're not playing
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: someone directly in competition with them.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: I would prefer to just move off of them because
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: two reasons.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: One, I don't like the guys around them as much,
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: and that's not the only reason, because that's all back
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: to picks and stuff, but also because those different builds
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: are going to be how you're leveraging. Like if they're
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: not coming through and the guys around them aren't coming through, again,
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: they can very well. It's a small field, but that
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: really hurts the Rory, the Scotti, all those types of
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: lines were my Now my Xander can't lay lineups. Let's
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: just use the Cali connection as an example. Well, now
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: they could be in really good shape because not only
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: could they be in the mix, but I don't require
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: those guys that are getting hurt down low. This is
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: what we focus on the majority of and so many
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: people mention it or say it or whatever, but we're
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: so so fully focused on that. We all have the
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: same pieces. Like a chessboard, we all get the same pieces.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: A chess master has more in the in the tank
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: up top to say, Okay, I'm gonna be thinking about
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: what if? And to my guy titles point, he always says,
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: not how often you're right, it's how much you win
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: when you are right. There's a way that you can
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: be a couple moves ahead there. It doesn't mean it'll work,
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: but you're gonna fee You should feel good about being
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: a couple, you know, two to three moves ahead by
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: what if this? Then that ends up working in your favor.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: And not many people are thinking about that. They're just
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: thinking about taniko or not to Niko, is your lady
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: gonna be good at twenty percent or not?
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: It's like there's more to the thought than that. So
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: I think that's a good call out.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: Awesome anything else we need to touch on.
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think I got nothing else there for leveraging
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: the build, and you know, people we've talked about flipping
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: the build moving around all of a sudden, that's gonna
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: come up in our lane. Do you have anything this week?
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: I know we've talked about it, you know last week
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: going through it that this show wouldn't have as much
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: on the betting and all that type of stuff. But
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: is there anything that stood out to you this week
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: from the betting breakdown perspective?
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take this in in a bit of
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: a different direction. I like some of the underdog Birdie props, okay,
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: and I also think it's worth mentioning, like last week
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: we found a really big edge on Saturday in the
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: strokes on whole sixteen through eighteen, and they are they're
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: way more likely now that NFL is over, now that
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: this is a signature event to have that sort of thing.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: So I think the the underdog product for PGA is like,
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: this is the time to play it, whereas in the
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: in the first couple of months it was it was
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: really weak. But I like the I like the over
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: on three and a half Birdie's for a lot of
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: the better players in this field. And the the other
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: thing I'll say about that is we do have to
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: be careful about how we play these because like let's say,
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: let's say you threw in three guys okay over three
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: and a half. Instead of getting the six and a
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: half X payoff that you usually get for three pick plays,
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: there's a correlation penalty that takes you all the way
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: down to five point zero six X. If you throw
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: in a fourth instead of getting ten X, now you're
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: getting six point zero six X. So the more guys
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: you throw in, the higher the correlation penalty. The strategy
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: that I like this week is find all the guys
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: that you like for over three and a half and
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: then just take two at a time, because if you're
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: only using two, it takes you from three and a
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: half down to three point two to two. That's much
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: much much easier to digest than like ten to six.
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: So I really like those this week. I think the
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: three and a half is just too low for the
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: better players who make a lot of birdies in this field,
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: and hopefully that last throut the whole week. And the
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: the other thing I'll say there is if you can.
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: It's probably better to take guys early on who are
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: are less likely to deal with the you know, the
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: really big wins that are potentially coming late in the
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: in the round.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: And these are overs right, three and a half over. Yeah,
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: and I like that you brought up the penalty math.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: I think that's something certainly important. I do. Got to
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: stick to my roots here, Kenny said earlier. Tamba wants
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: to expose as much as possible here from the restaining orders.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: When you first said Underdog birdie props, I heard underdog
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty drops with all the layoffs that
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: there have been out there, but we know, you know,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: they're not as focused.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: So like you said, you got to get these in now,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: well you can.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Their market is moving to the prediction side of things,
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: so we'll see how that shakes out. But unfortunate for
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: those out there that you know, got let go some
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: really good people. I saw some friends around the industry,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: you know, try and do as much as we can
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: to help out over at the ship its side. But
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: you know, if anybody's looking for anything or has ideas
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: always open, you can hit me up on x at
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: Totag and Tambo, so I got to make that you
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: know that you know a correlation or assumption. But take
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: us into the one and done then you know you
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: went into that. We've been playing it each week. What
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: are some thoughts on this one?
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: We'll just do it.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: From the general, you know, overview, because I know some
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: people are really looking at segments and stuff like that
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: right now, and obviously those have different structures to them,
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: where like, if you haven't used you, if you're already
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: dead and you haven't used Scotty or Rory, are they
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: great here?
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: Absolutely? Are they be great options?
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: But you might want to hang on to them because
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: guess what, they're pretty good at golf and they could
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: be great at a lot of different courses throughout the season,
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: so you might want to save them to help boost
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: a different segment. But let's talk just straight across the
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: board this week, all things considered, what are some of
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: your one and done thoughts?
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: As we as we go further and further into the season,
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: it becomes harder and harder to talk about one and
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: done in a useful way for most people because number one,
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: like our teams are going to be in drastically different positions.
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: If if you're near the leader board and you might
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: win a segment. You should be playing this differently than
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: somebody who's way down the board has no chance of
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: winning the segment, and you know, needs to get something going.
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: And similarly, we also don't have the same people available
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: as other people. Some have already used Scotty and Rory
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: or Rory and Tommy ends in or things like that,
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: and some of us have everyone available at the top.
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: And so it's we're getting we're starting to get to
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: the point of the season where it's just really hard
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: to talk about this in a in a in a
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: you know, really helpful, impactful way. But what I would
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: say is this is another signature event obviously, so there's
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: a you know, if this is the kind of event
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: that we save players for, use your favorite guy. What
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: I will say is I I do think ownership is
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: going to reflect what I already talked about, which is
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: I think the field really wants guys who are hitting
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: a lot of fairways. So we'll see plenty of Scotty here,
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: We'll see plenty of Tommy and Fits and Colin, and
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: maybe we won't see quite as much Rory or quite
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: as much you know, like Cam Young got her up
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: nap some of these longer hitters, and so I will
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: probably be picking from some of the longer guys and
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: and trying to get a lower ownership that way.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: One I was gonna ask you about, Actually what he
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: just brought that up is because we've used this all season.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: I think he could definitely fit the mold here is
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: is this the spot to go got her up? Like
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: there's nothing that he's really done poorly to disrupt anything
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: that he's done already amazing this season with the wins.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: But I don't think anyone is really on him this
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: week with all the other big names, and we've talked
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: about it.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: There is multiple people already.
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: Out there that have one point six or one point
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: seven or whatever it is, and one point six and
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: change that they got from him for the win. There's
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: an opportunity here where we can surpass that and beat
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: their godter up lineups and make up for the rest
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: of the season. So I do think he's at least
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: somewhat interesting from that perspective. He kind of fits the
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: mold on your Bomber narrative a little bit, which you've
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: kind of talked in the past a little bit about
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: want and done ownership and that sort of thing. So
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: do you think he could be a guy that we
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: could use here and try and get that leg up
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: with him.
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: I definitely think we could use him this week. The
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: one thing that's holding me back a little bit is
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: that his long iron play is not very good. And
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: this is a course where you're gonna have to hit
• 55:59
  Speaker 3: some long iron sow Well, he will have to hit
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: fewer long irons than many others because he's so long
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: off the tee, so that helps him a little bit.
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: He's also good out of the rough, so that helps
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: him a little bit. And and yeah, I think the
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: best argument for it, as you said, is a lot
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: of the teams that we already behind are guys who
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: had got her up for the win. So if you
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: can get got her up in a win where he's
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: getting a lot more now, not only did we just
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: match the guys who already had him and were way
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: ahead of us because of that, but we're way clear
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: of those guys. And so I really like the strategy of,
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: you know, being being very very purposeful about when we
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: use the players who already won and are already part
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: of the reason why we are behind, and so you can,
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: you know, apply the same logic to basically everyone who
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: has won this year. You can apply it to Rose,
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: you can apply it to the guys who just wanted
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: and especially guys who already won a signature event. So
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: very much agree with that thought, and I think got
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: her up as one of the strongest one and done
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: options because of it.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: One last one for me, what about Nikolai?
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: So if he's gonna be super Chok in DFS, I
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: will say this, I don't think he's gonna be super
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: Chok in one and done. I mean at the field
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: just too strong overall. He did turn it on Sunday.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: I know you can just sort of fire away, but
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: if you like him this week, that would be a
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: way to play him if you're not using him in DFS,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: or even if you're using him in both. I mean,
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: if he's getting there like he did last week, it
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: could be valuable. I don't know, but it's just an
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: interesting thought I had because I don't think many will
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: go to him this week after you know, sorry, or
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: this week based on the field strength and everything that
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: we have at hand here.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on him?
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, very much agree with that and I would also
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: say if you're if you're gonna consider him for one
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: and done, you should probably be betting his outright, because
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: if you like, if you like his chances to win
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: this tournament up against the best players in the world,
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: then you should like the number that you're able to
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: get for him.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely don't hate that either.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: When you talk about from the betting breakdown perspective, that's
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: just so. That's a funny one too. It's like the
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: opposite of the Nae stuff for the Lowry stuff. It's
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: like the collapses and the winds and how people react
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: to them. It's like someone that they really loved last
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: week didn't come through fully, but when you saw them
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: on Sunday. On Sunday morning, before the Lowry collapse even starts,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: by the way, people are going nuts about Nico again.
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: And then it just turns off because as soon as
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: it's like, well, a different Nico by the way is
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: making his way up the board and about to win
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: the tournament, Lowry's collapsing. It's all this big thing and
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: now it's like, we know, Hoguard, Nico is getting played
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: this week at seventy two hundred, but how many people
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: are betting them out right, how many people are playing
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: them in One and done? Stuff that you could still
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: use in One and done being peer to peer, you
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: could still use that to your advantage because the field
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: just so strong and I just don't think people.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: Would end up there.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: Again, depends on the type of tournament that you're in.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: How far back are you if you want to take
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: a shot that way. Also the fact of if you
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: have segments, maybe you don't want to burn up a Scotti,
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: Rory or some of those guys. You say, I'll go
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: back further in the pack and you could use a
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: you know, guys we talked about somebody else talking about Morikawa.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: Maricao is obviously hot right now, second place here last year.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: If you want to use them, it's fine. But yeah,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: it all depends on what you're as. The longer the
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: One and Done season goes on, it becomes almost like
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: NFL Survivor, which is what it's sort of made after.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: I guess it's like the idea of it matters more
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: what's gone on already for you than it does about
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: somebody being able to tell you the answer sheet and
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: not that's saying that everybody.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: That's what everybody's looking for but just noting it.
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: It's usually is, but it's not existing the same way
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: in this But yeah, all right, ready for your lane.
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: You said you kind of hinted at it earlier. Anyways,
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: I'll let you go ahead and then we'll roll from there.
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, my leverage lane is to take advantage of this
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: kind of growing narrative around the industry that accuracy is
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: really what dominates here, and specifically, like we we have
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: strokes gain driving accuracy at FTN, which I think does
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: a much better job of measuring accuracy than percentage of
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: fairways hit. And just like a really easy example, anyone
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: who's watched golf, anyone who has watched these two players
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: play this year, would overwhelmingly say that Jake Knapp has
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: driven the ball better than Victor and more accurately than
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: Victor Holin this year. And one of the ways we
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: know that is Victor Holin is not even gaining strokes
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: off the tee. He's he's averaged negative in the last four,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: he's lost into the last three. He's using pool floaties
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: on the range because he can't figure out what he's
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: doing with his driver, and Nap is driving the ball
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: extremely well, and yet Hoveland is seventeenth in fairways hit
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: this year, Nap is seventy sixth. Why because percentage of
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: airways hit fairways gained has a massively inverse relationship between
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: distance and how many fairways you can hit. But that's
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: not what accuracy is. Accuracy is how often can you
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: hit your line? Where are you missing? When you're missing?
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: Are you in control of that? It's not just how
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: many fairways are you hitting, because the longer hitters have
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 3: a more narrow margin of error to still hit fairways.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: So you can apply that to a lot of players
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: this week, and you see, like when you're looking at
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: the GPP's over at FTN, player after player with a
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: great GPP score is someone who's very long off the
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: te good iron player, accurate off the tee, but they're
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: not going to project well in any type of model
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: that has fairways gained a percentage of fairways hit as
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: one of the leading predictors. And so Nap, Oberg, Kitty,
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: Sam Burns, Adam Scott, like all of these guys are
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: under owned for the exact same reason. And that really
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: intrigues me. And so I'm going to be in on
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: a lot of those players. Xander's in there as well,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: Cam Young is in there as well, Can't Lays even
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: in there a little bit, Thorp, Bjornson, Keith Mitchell, Lots
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: of these guys kind of all fit the same bill,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: and that's gonna be my Leveragelne just taking advantage of this,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: like one misstep that I think that the field is
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: taken this week.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Is Thor the same price as Mitchell?
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: Yes, I think he is.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: That's pretty interesting as well. Just I feel like really
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: similar game types. But what happened last week, of course
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: we know, so that's what people will typically go off of,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: but also people liked Thor last week, like they were
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: in on him and it just didn't work out.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: Obviously missed the cut.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: But they they are basically the same golfer, Like they're
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: their mentalities are similar, their their skill profiles are remarkably similar.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: They make a ton of birdies but also make mistakes.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: They are remarkably similar golfers. And yeah, anytime that they
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: have a clear ownership difference, then I'm going to be
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: on the lower own guy.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: And so interesting is just looking at like early you know, projectory,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: You've got projections there, We've got him here.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Everything like that.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: But if you look at it, more people are going
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: to Connors and Mitchell than Thor. And you know, in
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: your prime example, they're like Thor versus Mitchell. Mitchell's fine
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: off the tee, but you know, obviously I'm great on approach,
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: but sorry Connors. But you know Thor can still do that,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: and Thor's can be really long off the tea, and
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: that could be helpful here. So if you go more
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: Bombers in that perspective too, that that could fit also.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: So I think that's where, like some of the stuff
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with, Like when you talk at earlier, it's
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: more if it was like Mitchell to Thor, I'm fine
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: with that. If it's like you know, the Nico range,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: I might just still play Nego and figure it out elsewhere.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: But I'll be different in enough spots beyond that. And
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: then the other thing too, just you know, now come
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: in full circle outside of like fits maybe some Deci.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: And probably some Cowa.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: Even the nine K range doesn't look like it's gonna
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: be that heavily owned, like what he's like, what are
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: you seeing?
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Fits Kawa? And then some Seawoo.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and hit Decie at like thirteen, but otherwise. Yeah,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: one other thing I'll say about distance too is think
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: about why people are gravitating towards guys who hit a
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: lot of fairways this week. It's because the rough is
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 3: really difficult and the greens are so firm. You know
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: who benefits from you know, their their ability to hit
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 3: out of rough when they're in the rough, and the
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: ability to hold the greens either from the fairway or
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 3: the rough. Guys who hit the ball hard and can
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 3: create spin and can create elevation, So the distance helps
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: more so then just off the tee. It's also about
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: who they are when they then get to their approach hut.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: So again, I think this is one of those weeks
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: where there's a there's actually like a pretty big inefficiency
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: that the industry is undergoing, and we can take full
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: advantage of it.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: I like that.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, my lanes didn't quite simple, you know, coming around
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: on the show, it'll be two or three eight K
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: guys up the middle. And the main reason is is
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: I don't see anybody getting over fifteen. You could see
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: you know, one hit that range or something like that.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: But I just think it's gonna be so much better
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: and you can still get guys up top with that.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: So like if you go a higher and then skip
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: the nines all together, if you started at a ten
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: or ten three or somewhere in that range, you'd be
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: able to drop down. But I think two eight k
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: guys for sure. I think it's loaded, and people are
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: going to talk about it, so they're all, it's gonna
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: be a prime example. We always talk about where those
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: guys are going to get to eight to twelve, Meaning
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: everybody knew they were good and like they fit in
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: here and they make sense for this and all that,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: but they didn't fully commit to them. So yeah, two
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: plus eight k guys in my main two hundred dollars
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: single entry this week, that's gonna be my lane. I've
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: already got a couple different variations that I like of it,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: and I'll answer this one for the people. Because everyone
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: knows about my interventions. I've I've skipped all all sessions.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: I've never actually been to an intervention. I just talked
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: about them. I didn't actually go. But I don't know
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: if I can get to my guy here this week,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: and if he burns me, he burns me, it's his
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: first week back, like I said, just hearing Gan and
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: being on site and talking to Wilcox and you'll mentioning
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: that stuff and still wearing the wrist strap all that.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not fully one to play into that, Alex,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: But you know from golfing yourself, those typically aren't good
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: signs when they're out there. You might get a spike
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: round or two or something, but will it be something
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: that actually results in a solid result that you need
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: this week for something versus the other opportunities and options
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: around it and so many unique plays that you could
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: go to to make your lineup work.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'll need that this week.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm definitely not in on Sunday.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: Are you ever? Though? Are you usually? Could you be?
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Could I sell you on him at some point? Yeah?
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: When I'm in on him is when approach signal is
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: lower than usual and around the green and putting have
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: a lot of signal because that's what he does, like
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: every single event. He loses a ton of strokes with
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: his irons and gains on and around the greens and
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: is fine because of it. But it's the problem, isn't
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: that he can't play well when he's not gaining with
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: his irons. It's that he can't spike and actually contend
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: that way, he can only save himself and still, you know,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: make the cut and finish at best like twentieth or
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: something like that. So there's just no ceiling until he
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: improves the irons and maybe now that he's healthier, he
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: can get the iron play back in order, because it's
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: not like that was always who he was, right, he
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: was actually a very good iron player when he first
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: got on tour. He just really really lost it over
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: the last two years.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: Oh, this is disgusting, you're correct, fully, And that's what
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: I take flack for all the time because like, oh,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: some jays, you know, a luck box look at all
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: these around the green Ship and it's like, no, it's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: just what he's actually good at now and usually he
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: doesn't do much more.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: But I will say disgusting odds.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: I just looked at my book for the Masters, which
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: is even when Sunjay was in his downturn, it's like,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: guess where you can really ask Patrick Reed and Joe
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: Jordan Spieth and those types of guys how things can
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: work at the Masters that year, even that song Jay
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: was having a bad year but still showed up for
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: a fifth at the Masters. A lot of around the
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: green play again, he's like seventy to one to win
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: the Masters, she should be one hundred and seventy to one.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: To your point, he's one hundred and seventy five to
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: one to win the API, and eighty to one is
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: the best available for the Masters.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's h Maybe I just gotta bet him
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: at API then maybe just talk me into it.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: So don't fit anything that we need there, but just funny.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: I definitely won't be betting sun Jay at the API,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: and don't recommend anyone does.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: So yeah, appreciate it. Man.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Let let everybody know where they can find your stuff,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: what you got going on for the week, and then
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: we'll get out of here.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: At alex plickle one on Twitter, you can find all
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 3: of the FTN data through there, and you can also
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: find my discord through there, and uh and yeah, it's
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 3: been it's been especially fun on the picks and prop
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: side pick them and prop side lately, So if if
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: that's part of your game, I always say, like, I
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: use pick them and props as kind of my cash
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: games since I haven't played cash in dfs in years
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: and years and years. So if that sort of thing
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: interests you, then then check out my discord.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: I think I just lost this, but yeah, definitely in there.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: I'm in the discord as well, you know, talking up
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: with the boys Stump, Brendan Todd, you know his boy.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: We've talked about that a few times, and some others
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: in there that are in both Discord, ship It and
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: that one. So shout out to you for everything you're
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: doing over there. You guys want to check us out
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: at shippin Nation. You can try us just for five days.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: Do you want to get this event and some of
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: the other sports that are ongoing right now. Of course,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: you can just get the five days for nineteen dollars
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: as you see at the top, that includes Discord and Sabersim,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: But if you want to get in on the early
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: Bird special leading up to the Masters, you're gonna be
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: able to get everything we offer for the entire season,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: including Sabersim for the whole year, and then lastly just
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: for our OG members. So people know, just reminding you,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: because we've said a million times that want to make
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: sure it's clear. The starter plan where you literally pay
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: almost one hundred dollars just for Sabersim on their site
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: is going up and won't always be available at ninety
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: seven for your first month and then one twenty nine
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: locked in this one thirty nine will go to one
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: forty nine, So if you have questions, if it's confusing,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 2: hit me up, tag me the discord whatever you want,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: just to get the best possible price and lock it
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: in long term to keep it grandfathered. You would want
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: to get in before the end of March, so hit
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: me up at totag and tambo. If you're already a
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: member at Shipping Nation, you can tag me in the discord.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: Alex appreciate you as always, my man. Maybe maybe see
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: you next week a couple times we'll see about that.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: But exciting stuff with the players just around the corner.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: Thank you guys for watching for Alex and for myself
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: to tagging tambo led ship it