Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets NFL Week 8

Transcript

Best Bets NFL Week 8 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Betfree six ' five.
0:13
Speaker 1: We are part of the Action Network. I am Chad Millman,
0:17
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our
0:20
Speaker 1: week eight Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where
0:23
Speaker 1: we get feedback from the wise guys who listen to
0:26
Speaker 1: the show with our sharp calls. Where we make our
0:29
Speaker 1: survivor pick and build our money line Underdog Round Robin Parlay.
0:35
Speaker 1: We give out our foxhol Bet, our Big Balls bet
0:37
Speaker 1: of the Week. We narrow down our picks for the
0:40
Speaker 1: free to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
0:43
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard
0:49
Speaker 1: likes to say, there's a sea of money out.
0:50
Speaker 2: There, because there's a sea of money out there.
0:53
Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,
0:55
Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website Favorites
0:57
Speaker 1: dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before
1:01
Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday. If you prefer using the award winning
1:04
Speaker 1: Action app, you can also track all the bets. Simon
1:07
Speaker 1: and I lock in by following two accounts, The Faves
1:10
Speaker 1: five and The Favorites Podcast. Now, let's bring in my
1:15
Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my bff professional
1:18
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter Eto saw im in.
1:24
Speaker 2: Hello Hot Chad about to do a quick rant. I
1:27
Speaker 2: feel like we have a lot of new listeners, a
1:29
Speaker 2: lot of questions, and they're asking about how mean you
1:32
Speaker 2: came together. So I figured I'd give them a quick story.
1:34
Speaker 1: I have no idea where you're going when you say quick, rent,
1:37
Speaker 1: so when you say you're going to do a little
1:38
Speaker 1: story time, it makes me a little more.
1:40
Speaker 2: Comfortable, you know, I always forget that we get so
1:42
Speaker 2: many new listeners and yeah, yeah, you guys were talking
1:45
Speaker 2: the other day about how much the show's grown and
1:47
Speaker 2: we're like the number one gambling podcast. So I figured, yeah,
1:51
Speaker 2: me and Chad, this is our fifth season doing it together, right, brother. Yeah.
1:55
Speaker 2: When I joined Chad, it was just like most best
1:58
Speaker 2: relationships of my life come together. I reached out to
2:00
Speaker 2: him and let me be the guy in the shadow
2:02
Speaker 2: giving you picks, and Chad was like, no, why don't
2:04
Speaker 2: you come on the actual show and get picks? And
2:06
Speaker 2: I told him, I don't want people to know my
2:08
Speaker 2: name or my face. I have no interest in being
2:10
Speaker 2: famous right in life. If you already have the money.
2:13
Speaker 2: You really don't need the fame, and I already had
2:14
Speaker 2: the money in my twenties. And when I joined Chad,
2:18
Speaker 2: there was no video. It was in podcast medium and
2:21
Speaker 2: it was me, Chad and Darren Revel. Darren was just
2:24
Speaker 2: a wait, weighing us down, and basically everything I would say,
2:26
Speaker 2: Darren would question because it's Darren Revel. I think it
2:29
Speaker 2: was like a ten to fifteen minute segment and I
2:30
Speaker 2: ended up coming on here and sometimes I'd be here
2:32
Speaker 2: for like thirty minutes because we ended up going through
2:33
Speaker 2: all the games just because Chad would be like, what
2:35
Speaker 2: do you think of this game? What do you think
2:36
Speaker 2: of this game? Yeah, the following year it was just
2:38
Speaker 2: me and Chad. Obviously it's our best year we ever had.
2:41
Speaker 2: I think we went sixty seven percent for the season.
2:43
Speaker 2: We finished top twenty in the money. Me him, Matt
2:46
Speaker 2: Mitchell split up a nice, nice little paycheck from the
2:50
Speaker 2: contest you're in, and you know, the show's just growing.
2:52
Speaker 2: Now we're up to three episodes a week. You know,
2:54
Speaker 2: we started with just one episode a week, one hour
2:56
Speaker 2: a week. Now we're up to three. And yeah, I
2:58
Speaker 2: used to not be an employee. I wasn't paid me
3:00
Speaker 2: and Chad made a deal. I think after my second
3:02
Speaker 2: year they did pay me. And I'm not here for
3:04
Speaker 2: the money, I promise you. I think it was last week.
3:06
Speaker 2: I got up at two am, five am and then
3:09
Speaker 2: five am. Yad, there's no money Chad's paying me. That
3:12
Speaker 2: makes that worth it in my life, people like I
3:14
Speaker 2: got into this business to go to bed at two am,
3:17
Speaker 2: five am and five am, not wake up to come
3:19
Speaker 2: here and talk to you guys, so you knew people
3:22
Speaker 2: when you bitch at me here complaining to me. Everything
3:24
Speaker 2: I do is free. I've never taken a penny from anyone.
3:27
Speaker 2: And my whole goal joining Chad was I hate how
3:31
Speaker 2: the system was set up that the rich we're getting
3:33
Speaker 2: all the good information. And my goal was to join Chad.
3:36
Speaker 2: Let people know what the pros are betting. It's media.
3:38
Speaker 2: People are gonna talk about me, They're gonna question me.
3:41
Speaker 2: Could I sell picks and make a shit ton of money? Yeah,
3:44
Speaker 2: Like it's pretty easy to sell picks the dumb ass
3:46
Speaker 2: people lying, but there's nothing to gain in it. Like
3:48
Speaker 2: what I love about this show is nothing's changed since
3:50
Speaker 2: I joined Chad. It's a free show. We give free picks.
3:53
Speaker 2: I'm not here to gain anything from you. I'm not
3:55
Speaker 2: here to swindle you. I'm just here to tell you
3:58
Speaker 2: how I'm betting, how other pros are betting, and hopefully
4:00
Speaker 2: we win. Like me and Chat had been very fortunate
4:02
Speaker 2: where we're like we're above sixty percent. That's what matters
4:04
Speaker 2: to all these people. My main goal is to get
4:07
Speaker 2: you guys thinking like pros, where you can see these
4:09
Speaker 2: shit lines a mile away, like this Green Bay Vikings
4:12
Speaker 2: line this week. That was a ship line that most
4:14
Speaker 2: of you messaged me and you saw it a mile away.
4:16
Speaker 2: That makes me so happy, Like that's really honestly my
4:19
Speaker 2: goal of the show. So just people new to the show,
4:22
Speaker 2: there's no endgame here. My goal is just the more
4:24
Speaker 2: we do, the better this show does, the better my
4:26
Speaker 2: life keeps getting. So now look anything for you here.
4:29
Speaker 2: I'm just if you're gonna talk shit to me, you
4:31
Speaker 2: can do it during a losing week. When we win
4:33
Speaker 2: and you talk shit to me, I'm going to block
4:35
Speaker 2: you this Everything we do is free here. People, just
4:38
Speaker 2: learn from the veteran listeners of the show. Trust us.
4:41
Speaker 2: We're gonna have bad weeks. A two and three is
4:43
Speaker 2: a bad week for me and Chat, so please stick
4:45
Speaker 2: with us for the season, like there's a method to
4:48
Speaker 2: our madness.
4:49
Speaker 1: I have so much to say about what you just said,
4:52
Speaker 1: but we got to keep rolling, man. So I love
4:54
Speaker 1: that you did it. I love that you explained it.
4:56
Speaker 1: I'm glad to hear it makes you happy.
4:58
Speaker 2: I wouldn't beginning at five in the morning if it
4:59
Speaker 2: didn't chat.
5:00
Speaker 1: I know it, brother, I love you. You're the best.
5:02
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet
5:05
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5:41
Speaker 1: bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions and restrictions apply. Week
5:45
Speaker 1: eight kickoff is approaching. We're seeing opportunities all over the board.
5:49
Speaker 1: It's not dilly dally, it's time. Four sharp calls.
5:55
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain rain alphone.
6:01
Speaker 1: Somebody saying, maybe you do man, Simon. Who's calling us?
6:07
Speaker 1: What are they saying?
6:08
Speaker 2: Pretty easy week from the pros? I mean they're they're
6:10
Speaker 2: from the same perspective as us, Chad. You have a
6:12
Speaker 2: lot of home dogs this week, and they're divisional dogs,
6:15
Speaker 2: and we're lit enough in the season now where that matters,
6:18
Speaker 2: and the public perception we're re valuing these road favorites.
6:21
Speaker 2: They don't learn. They didn't learn last week, They're not
6:23
Speaker 2: gonna learn again this week. So shocking to know. On
6:27
Speaker 2: these are probably gonna be some of our big balls
6:28
Speaker 2: bets bets. We're gonna be having our contest, no doubt
6:31
Speaker 2: the commanders. The pros love the commanders that loved them
6:34
Speaker 2: all week. No shock there. The hope is it gets
6:38
Speaker 2: back to seven. I don't know if the pros are
6:39
Speaker 2: gonna let it get to seven, but that's a game
6:41
Speaker 2: we're gonna break down. Chad Denver we talked about it
6:45
Speaker 2: was eight and a half. Now it's down to seven.
6:49
Speaker 2: Right the books aren't your friends. They're not letting you
6:51
Speaker 2: get down a good number to tease now, right now,
6:53
Speaker 2: it's down to minus one if you're throw it in
6:54
Speaker 2: a teaser, fishy fishy line. And Evan told is like
6:58
Speaker 2: Mahomes against the West straight up, it's free money. Like
7:02
Speaker 2: the dude's lost. I think Evan said two games in
7:04
Speaker 2: the last like seven years, something crazy like that. So, yeah,
7:07
Speaker 2: twenty nine and three, thank you having that's I can't
7:10
Speaker 2: run my head around my home is twenty nine and
7:12
Speaker 2: three straight up against his division. It's just God numbers.
7:15
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Pros love Denver. There's a seven and
7:18
Speaker 2: a half still out there. I'd grab it. I think
7:20
Speaker 2: it's going to disappear. I just think the Pros are
7:22
Speaker 2: gonna pound this down. They just they got a lot
7:24
Speaker 2: of guys I talked to have this number at six.
7:26
Speaker 2: I have this number at seven. So if it does
7:28
Speaker 2: get to six and a half, technically the value is
7:31
Speaker 2: now in the Chiefs. But in contest, if me and
7:33
Speaker 2: Chad I gets seven and a half Denver, it's an
7:35
Speaker 2: automatic play for us, Like we just love that spot.
7:38
Speaker 2: So no shock there not too much love for Chad's
7:42
Speaker 2: Dallas pick. Shockingly, I was gonna see if anyone's out
7:45
Speaker 2: there liked it too. It's not. I think Chad knows
7:48
Speaker 2: it's a little chalky, but you know, maybe we'll make
7:51
Speaker 2: it our survivor pick. I don't know, that's just that's
7:54
Speaker 2: that was just a funny playboy. But I asked a
7:55
Speaker 2: bunch of different guys. Don't have a real read on that.
7:59
Speaker 2: They liked our jobs pick. Obviously that number's gone up,
8:03
Speaker 2: so that wasn't the best. Simon says. I thought it
8:05
Speaker 2: was gonna go down from three. It's just stayed at three.
8:07
Speaker 2: And most books have moved at the three. And you know,
8:11
Speaker 2: the last one I will give Chad flowers for he
8:14
Speaker 2: was on the Seahawks. They were two and a half
8:16
Speaker 2: earlier in the week. That was the right play with
8:18
Speaker 2: all the question marks around Watson. You know they're coming
8:24
Speaker 2: off a big road wind. Now they're triving, traveling across
8:26
Speaker 2: the country to Seattle. Chad got a good number. I
8:30
Speaker 2: think you got a two and a half, right, Chad.
8:32
Speaker 2: Now it's up to four and a lot of books.
8:34
Speaker 2: You know, a couple of pros are on that like
8:37
Speaker 2: they elected at three, they elected at two and a half.
8:39
Speaker 2: I just totally missed it where in my mind it
8:41
Speaker 2: was just like I don't know that front four of
8:43
Speaker 2: Cleveland against the Seahawks. Oh line, that's a big advantage
8:47
Speaker 2: to me towards that Cleveland team. But obviously you know
8:52
Speaker 2: it's PJ. Walker, Like that's that's the that's that's what's
8:55
Speaker 2: moving that number. Like the fact you can we all
8:57
Speaker 2: can badmouth Watson all he wont he hasn't looked right,
8:59
Speaker 2: You still me worth two or three points of the
9:01
Speaker 2: spread compared to PJ at Walker. So not shocking to
9:04
Speaker 2: see that numbers move so much, but I was shocked
9:07
Speaker 2: here that pros loved it so much that the Pros
9:09
Speaker 2: roll over the Seahawks. I'm probably still going up on
9:12
Speaker 2: the Browns, Like now that it's up to four. If
9:14
Speaker 2: it gets a four and a half, how do I
9:16
Speaker 2: not take the Browns defense catching that many points. So yeah,
9:19
Speaker 2: that's that's it for Sharp, cause just they just basically
9:22
Speaker 2: were allowing me, you Chad the home divisional dogs like
9:25
Speaker 2: this week, we probably have to play all three of
9:27
Speaker 2: them if they're just they're at good numbers right now.
9:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, the more I did the research over the last
9:32
Speaker 1: forty eight hours, the clearer it became where I think
9:36
Speaker 1: we were going to land with our five. So let's
9:40
Speaker 1: let's let's dig a little bit deeper. As a reminder,
9:44
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.
9:48
Speaker 1: For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us
9:51
Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
9:55
Speaker 1: By the way, before we jump into our picks, don't
9:58
Speaker 1: forget the NBA season has a fit we tipped off.
10:01
Speaker 1: If you like betting the NBA, be sure to check
10:03
Speaker 1: out Buckets, Action Networks Basketball betting podcast with new episodes
10:09
Speaker 1: every single weekday this NBA season. That name again is Buckets,
10:15
Speaker 1: available wherever you listen to podcasts. It's great. It's like
10:19
Speaker 1: the perfect daily dose for betting early in the morning,
10:24
Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty minutes. It's outstanding. All right, let's narrow
10:27
Speaker 1: down our games. We got to get to the foxhole.
10:29
Speaker 1: We got to get to our survivor, we got to
10:31
Speaker 1: get to big balls. Here's the games we talked about
10:34
Speaker 1: the most. There's a lot of important injury news, right,
10:38
Speaker 1: So there's Brock party news, there's potential Tyreek Hill News,
10:44
Speaker 1: there's the PJ. Walker News, Like a lot of stuff
10:46
Speaker 1: to break down in these games. I'm just gonna say,
10:52
Speaker 1: Dallas minus six, I think everybody's wrong. This defense is
10:59
Speaker 1: so good coming off a buy against a bad Rams offense.
11:04
Speaker 1: I know why the wise guys don't like it. I
11:07
Speaker 1: know why it's Chalky Dak is a big fave at
11:11
Speaker 1: home in this spot with this defense. Like I know
11:18
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff, and I'm telling you, you say
11:22
Speaker 1: it's very off brand for me, almost like you're sad
11:24
Speaker 1: for me, like you said on Tuesday, this is five
11:27
Speaker 1: years ago for me. But it just doesn't make sense
11:31
Speaker 1: why people aren't on the Cowboys. I know you don't
11:33
Speaker 1: want to put it in the contest, but I'm telling you,
11:36
Speaker 1: Cowboys are going to blow this team out. To the Cowboys.
11:41
Speaker 1: I hate the Cowboys.
11:43
Speaker 2: As I said, they need to because it's a big number.
11:45
Speaker 2: That's that's my issue. I think that's a lot of
11:47
Speaker 2: the pros issue where it's like seven six and a half.
11:50
Speaker 2: How do you not take the Rams at that number.
11:52
Speaker 2: That's such a big number that the Cowboys will have
11:55
Speaker 2: to blow them out. Like at that number you kind
11:57
Speaker 2: of need to dominate because the back door will always
12:00
Speaker 2: be open, and that's the fear, right, And that was
12:02
Speaker 2: the same thing where I didn't get the love for
12:04
Speaker 2: the Vikings on Monday Night, right, all the pros are
12:07
Speaker 2: all over it. They're talking about They're like the seven
12:09
Speaker 2: and a half, it's just too big. Seven's too big
12:12
Speaker 2: for that Vikings team. I didn't get it. And their
12:14
Speaker 2: whole reasoning was that backdoor will always be open, Like
12:17
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers team at injuries, They're like, they're
12:19
Speaker 2: not going to be blown out the Vikings even if
12:20
Speaker 2: they're up by ten or eleven points the end of
12:23
Speaker 2: the game. I trust Kirk to get me the back door.
12:26
Speaker 2: That's how I feel like most pros feel about the
12:28
Speaker 2: Stafford play man. It's like, you know, he does lose righty,
12:32
Speaker 2: like they've been losing this year. I think they're three
12:34
Speaker 2: and four. He's always got them in the game, like
12:37
Speaker 2: they're always competitive, and he usually is the one the
12:40
Speaker 2: reason why they don't win. Right. He makes the mistakes
12:42
Speaker 2: where he doesn't convert the third downs, and that's falling
12:44
Speaker 2: apart for this team. So the problem for this play
12:49
Speaker 2: is you need Dak to finally play well right, And
12:52
Speaker 2: Dak played really well against the Chargers, right, I think
12:55
Speaker 2: he's only incompletions were to Gallop. Gallup was the only
12:58
Speaker 2: guy that wasn't He wasn't able to comp to. I
13:00
Speaker 2: think at a perfect game, target is always the receivers.
13:03
Speaker 2: There's never been a question about Dak and that kind
13:05
Speaker 2: of stuff. It's it's more about that offense in the
13:08
Speaker 2: red zone. They've had major issues. McCarthy calls some of
13:12
Speaker 2: the worst run plays. The timing he calls is just terrible.
13:15
Speaker 2: Like it's second and ten, he'll just run into the
13:18
Speaker 2: back of his line, and now it's third and nine.
13:21
Speaker 2: It's just he keeps putting Dak in disadvantaged positions. So
13:25
Speaker 2: that that's the biggest issue here with me is there's
13:27
Speaker 2: a big coaching advantage towards the Rams, and it's a
13:30
Speaker 2: big number. Chat So if this gets to five and
13:32
Speaker 2: a half in our contest, I could be swayed like
13:35
Speaker 2: that that to me, that that shifts the value to
13:38
Speaker 2: the Cowboys team. But yeah, this number is presently six
13:42
Speaker 2: and a half. Six. I still lean towards the Rams here,
13:45
Speaker 2: So I don't hate where you're coming from. I just
13:48
Speaker 2: I'm giving the perspective of That's why it's just not
13:50
Speaker 2: one of my favorite five. There's too many variables here
13:52
Speaker 2: for me to take that big of a number with
13:54
Speaker 2: this Cowboys team.
13:57
Speaker 1: Well, look, we'll see what happens in the contest. Number
14:00
Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay the first of the divisional dogs
14:02
Speaker 1: that you're talking about. Green Bay plus one has been
14:05
Speaker 1: the play. I think our biggest disappointment is that this
14:08
Speaker 1: line didn't get higher. It's sort of stayed at plus one.
14:11
Speaker 1: I think the wise guys have been coming in and
14:14
Speaker 1: even stucky. On the podcast on the Action Network Thursday
14:18
Speaker 1: episode with Raybond liked green Bay at plus one. We
14:24
Speaker 1: thought it might ohigher after Minnesota beat the Niners. It didn't.
14:29
Speaker 1: This is a huge pros Joe's game. Sixty percent of
14:32
Speaker 1: the tickets on Minnesota, eighty percent of the money on
14:34
Speaker 1: the pack. We both bet it at plus one. Minnesota
14:38
Speaker 1: was very lucky last week. Three turnovers from the Niners
14:42
Speaker 1: uncharacteristic blitz at the end of the first half to
14:45
Speaker 1: give the Vikings a sixty yard touchdown pass put it
14:49
Speaker 1: in Like it's a no brainer to me. It stayed
14:51
Speaker 1: at one. It's going to be at that in the contest.
14:54
Speaker 1: I don't know why we're not taking the Packers in
14:56
Speaker 1: the contest.
14:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, and don't need much breakdown on this one. People
15:00
Speaker 2: completely get where we're coming from. It's the perfect spot
15:03
Speaker 2: to buy low on. Green Bay already broke it down
15:05
Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Vikings coming off the win of the year,
15:09
Speaker 2: right beating a team that everyone viewed as one of
15:11
Speaker 2: the best teams in football and primetime game as a
15:14
Speaker 2: big dog one out right now going on the road
15:17
Speaker 2: against a green Bay team that no one likes, No
15:19
Speaker 2: one wants to bet this team, like she had just said,
15:21
Speaker 2: it's only pro money coming on green Bay like anyone else.
15:24
Speaker 2: They thought they were getting easy bet last week. They're
15:26
Speaker 2: like green Bay money line against Denver minus one ten.
15:30
Speaker 2: I'll take it every day. They are so mad at
15:33
Speaker 2: this green Bay team, especially if you watch that game
15:35
Speaker 2: where you know Love if the guys as bad as
15:39
Speaker 2: you want to say Love was. The guys just weren't
15:40
Speaker 2: getting open like I rewatched that game is whide receiver
15:43
Speaker 2: to getting no separation in walks. Here. This Minnesota team
15:47
Speaker 2: that just is not that good, like Purdy was throwing
15:49
Speaker 2: it all over them. You guys opened all over them
15:52
Speaker 2: like they just had that weird McCaffrey turnover right, and
15:55
Speaker 2: then McCaffrey, you know, stayed in the game. They played well,
15:58
Speaker 2: they were getting back into it. Purty gets that what
16:01
Speaker 2: people are calling a concussion on that QB Sneak throws
16:03
Speaker 2: a pick the next play, then they come back out
16:06
Speaker 2: he throws another pick. And this is all after what
16:07
Speaker 2: people think he got an injury to his head. So
16:09
Speaker 2: it's like Minnesota had so many things break right, including
16:14
Speaker 2: Kirk played incredible. I mean, at any time he dropped back,
16:17
Speaker 2: I felt confident, Kirk throwing the ball downfield, Hockinson getting
16:21
Speaker 2: open anytime he wanted. I just love Green Bay and
16:24
Speaker 2: the spot for a bounce back, like the fact that
16:26
Speaker 2: it was up to one and a half. That was
16:29
Speaker 2: going to be an auto play for me and Chad
16:30
Speaker 2: in the contest. Now, if it flips them back to
16:33
Speaker 2: me in a favorite, which we've seen most books do,
16:35
Speaker 2: we'll still do it. But Chad, he keeps reading that
16:38
Speaker 2: stat from Evan about these these favorites. I go to
16:40
Speaker 2: dogs back to favorites. It's usually not great for them.
16:44
Speaker 2: But how do we not do it? How do we
16:47
Speaker 2: not take Green Bay here? So I loved all the
16:50
Speaker 2: people that reach out to me. They're like I love this,
16:52
Speaker 2: I'm all over this, and it's just great. That's just
16:54
Speaker 2: what makes me happy. Where it's just like, even if
16:57
Speaker 2: this loses people, trust the idea and the concept of it,
17:00
Speaker 2: where it's like you're getting the divisional dog in a
17:02
Speaker 2: bilo spot, this will cash for you long term. So
17:05
Speaker 2: again we're not always going to be right. Me and
17:08
Speaker 2: Chad's goal is three and two. This fields have got
17:10
Speaker 2: three and two. Play gotta get Green Bay in the
17:12
Speaker 2: contest overall.
17:14
Speaker 1: Dogs and divisional games the past decade, sixty games above
17:19
Speaker 1: five hundred. Since twenty twenty, forty games above five hundred.
17:24
Speaker 1: So like that, this is spot Simon Hunter, the Robin
17:28
Speaker 1: hoood of wives guys, just bringing bringing the riches of
17:34
Speaker 1: the bad guys to the poor people. That's what you're
17:37
Speaker 1: doing New England at Miami. So on Tuesday you were
17:42
Speaker 1: very aggressive about Miami. This numbers at nine. Tito, who
17:47
Speaker 1: mostly spends this show producer Tito, prior to the show
17:50
Speaker 1: getting yelled at by Matt Mitchell in ways I've never
17:53
Speaker 1: heard Matt Mitchell yell at anybody, and then trying to
17:56
Speaker 1: convince us all about South Florida Sports told us that
18:00
Speaker 1: yesterday in the press conference, Tua was suspect about Tyreek
18:06
Speaker 1: Hill because Tyreek Kill missed the practice and his potential
18:09
Speaker 1: to play on Sunday. We don't know what's happening there.
18:12
Speaker 1: All we have is Tito listening to press conferences from
18:16
Speaker 1: Tua in Miami. But I will say I listened to
18:20
Speaker 1: the Action Pod this morning. Stucky loves New England. Here
18:26
Speaker 1: you love Miami on Tuesday. I don't know where to
18:29
Speaker 1: go with this right now, and I was thinking, like,
18:31
Speaker 1: oh my god, are we going to put a massive
18:32
Speaker 1: favorite in the contest Now I'm not so sure.
18:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, the tire stuff's not ideal, Like I would feel
18:39
Speaker 2: a lot better if Tiger was in there. It's just
18:42
Speaker 2: such a game changer with Tim and Wattle on the
18:43
Speaker 2: field together.
18:44
Speaker 1: But Model's got his back thing, and they're already missing
18:48
Speaker 1: people on the offensive line, and their defense stinks. And
18:51
Speaker 1: the Patriots, who knows, maybe they figured something out, maybe
18:54
Speaker 1: they got healthier, Maybe Bill O'Brien all of a sudden
18:58
Speaker 1: they're a little bit more effective. Shortened the game, There's
19:00
Speaker 1: gonna be high winds. It feels like we're setting ourselves
19:03
Speaker 1: up there.
19:04
Speaker 2: I just can't get behind New England, though, like, even
19:07
Speaker 2: if Tyreek's out, I just maybe I'll just stay away
19:09
Speaker 2: from the game. But I'm either ben Miam or just
19:11
Speaker 2: staying away.
19:12
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not advocated we put in New England
19:14
Speaker 1: in the contest. I'm just saying I can't see how
19:17
Speaker 1: we're gonna put Miami in the contest.
19:19
Speaker 2: Maybe I'll be able to amja come someday morning, but
19:21
Speaker 2: this just feels like I don't want to call it
19:23
Speaker 2: a lazy bet on the Patriots, but it's just like, yeah,
19:26
Speaker 2: they look like they got things right against the Bills
19:29
Speaker 2: and all things are forgiven. It's just like, I don't know, man,
19:31
Speaker 2: I can't get all that stuff out of my head.
19:33
Speaker 2: Of Mac Jones, like the kid, maybe he just had
19:36
Speaker 2: a good a good spot against the Bills. Or maybe
19:38
Speaker 2: the Bills beat themselves by doing nothing in the first half.
19:41
Speaker 2: And given that New England a big lead, right, what
19:43
Speaker 2: were they up? Were they up ten nothing or fourteen
19:45
Speaker 2: nothing on the Bills to start that game. We're in
19:47
Speaker 2: a different world here with this Miami team, like their offense.
19:51
Speaker 2: If they get down fourteen, I honestly feel more confident
19:53
Speaker 2: in this offense than I do in the Bills offense.
19:55
Speaker 2: But if you go back and watch that Patriots first
19:57
Speaker 2: time around, they played it perfectly and they had all
19:59
Speaker 2: their guys like they had everyone healthy. Now they don't
20:02
Speaker 2: have their two best defenders now for this Miami team.
20:04
Speaker 2: So yeah, Tier injury is a big deal. But even
20:08
Speaker 2: if he's out, I'll probably still have a decent amount
20:11
Speaker 2: on Miami. I just just want to make it one
20:13
Speaker 2: of our five.
20:14
Speaker 1: The next game, I want to talk about the New
20:16
Speaker 1: York Jets and the New York Giants. This game's at three.
20:21
Speaker 1: This was your Simon says. We thought it might move
20:24
Speaker 1: a little bit. It's kind of stay where it is,
20:26
Speaker 1: but I'm fine with that. But thinking about the Giants
20:30
Speaker 1: as dogs. Tarad Taylor playing quarterback for the Giants, he
20:35
Speaker 1: covers he doesn't make mistakes, and right now Brian Daball
20:39
Speaker 1: is looking for guys who won't make mistakes and screw
20:42
Speaker 1: everything up for the Giants because that's been the reason
20:45
Speaker 1: they're losing. You've already heard me get my rant on
20:49
Speaker 1: the Jets defense. I'm not saying they're mediocre, but I
20:52
Speaker 1: do think they've been turnover dependent and that's what's helped
20:56
Speaker 1: put them in a position to win games right, thirteen
20:59
Speaker 1: turnovers forced this season, sixteen all of last year. Other
21:03
Speaker 1: than that, a lot of their statistics they are middle
21:08
Speaker 1: of the road in terms of what they are doing statistically.
21:12
Speaker 1: So we like the Giants here.
21:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if Daniel Jones is named the starter on Sunday,
21:17
Speaker 2: I'll probably buy out on most of my position on
21:20
Speaker 2: the Giants here. I just I don't feel confident him
21:22
Speaker 2: because he does turn the ball over. And that's what
21:24
Speaker 2: Chad's just talking about here. It's like the Giants, Yes,
21:27
Speaker 2: they're not that good, but they are well coached and
21:30
Speaker 2: when you're not turning the ball over, that's how they
21:32
Speaker 2: can stay in these games. And against the Jets team,
21:35
Speaker 2: that's just it's just too much value. Like people are
21:37
Speaker 2: just forgetting what Zach Wilson has been. And I do
21:40
Speaker 2: agree he has improved, but he's not consistent. And that's
21:43
Speaker 2: that's the thing where it's like, yeah, he might have
21:45
Speaker 2: these moments here where he will complete that third down.
21:47
Speaker 2: He'll be like, oh, I'm back in on Zach Wilson,
21:50
Speaker 2: Like he can make these throws, but then he'll just
21:52
Speaker 2: throw a couple of duds the next three throws. He's
21:54
Speaker 2: just inconsistent. So the fact that it is three, it's like,
21:58
Speaker 2: we get it. They got a ton more talent, right.
22:01
Speaker 2: The Jets have a lot more blue Chippers, as you
22:03
Speaker 2: would say, like they have a lot of really good
22:05
Speaker 2: guys in their team. But this Giants is just so
22:07
Speaker 2: well put together. And even in that Washington game, like
22:10
Speaker 2: it was close, Washington seemed like they were out playing
22:13
Speaker 2: them the whole game. But I never really had any
22:14
Speaker 2: doubt that the Giants were gonna somehow cover that number.
22:16
Speaker 2: It just felt like they were the better team. So
22:21
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff the Giants do is what I
22:23
Speaker 2: talk about a lot of these defenses do, which is
22:25
Speaker 2: like they'll they'll give you up, They'll give up all
22:27
Speaker 2: the r's you want, but once you get in the
22:28
Speaker 2: red zone, that's when they throw those clamps down. And offensively,
22:32
Speaker 2: I don't think they've yet played a great game. And
22:36
Speaker 2: Chad talked about there's some things you can do here
22:38
Speaker 2: that match up well for the Giants against the Jets,
22:43
Speaker 2: and the biggest one is Waller. Like Waller had a
22:45
Speaker 2: great game last week, he matches up very well against
22:49
Speaker 2: this linebacking core of the Jets, Like that's a weakness
22:51
Speaker 2: of this Jets team. Covering tight ends. So a couple
22:55
Speaker 2: of things I do like about the Giants team, but
22:57
Speaker 2: it's mainly the number, Like we're getting plus three. Maybe
23:01
Speaker 2: we're walking right into it, me and Chad, and this
23:03
Speaker 2: is like the time we shouldn't be we're buying. Maybe
23:05
Speaker 2: we're buying high in this Giants team. But it just
23:08
Speaker 2: feels like everyone's so in on this Jets team. Right
23:11
Speaker 2: they're coming off of bye week after they just beat
23:13
Speaker 2: the Eagles. I just assumed a lot of the money
23:16
Speaker 2: would come in, and I'm looking at the money now
23:17
Speaker 2: and it just seems that way like the tickets and
23:19
Speaker 2: the money right now are coming in heavy on them.
23:21
Speaker 2: So here's another great staff from Evan. Three is a
23:25
Speaker 2: key number in these low total games totals below forty.
23:29
Speaker 2: If you're getting three or higher on the dog. It's
23:31
Speaker 2: fifty nine ats since twenty eighteen. So it's just a
23:35
Speaker 2: nice spot, like we're taking an ugly dog in a
23:38
Speaker 2: game we think should be an ugly battle, like it
23:41
Speaker 2: could come down to a field. Well, maybe me and
23:42
Speaker 2: Chad will push this one, but two and a half
23:45
Speaker 2: three in contest, it's it's kind of hard not to
23:47
Speaker 2: take that number.
23:49
Speaker 1: So we're putting together a profile here. And by the way,
23:51
Speaker 1: we still owe Foxhall, we still owe big Balls. I
23:55
Speaker 1: know we're getting to those because there.
23:58
Speaker 2: Is I mean, do you want to make this Foxhel
23:59
Speaker 2: It's no one's betting it. I got even the pros,
24:02
Speaker 2: a lot of pros I talk to, like they're not
24:04
Speaker 2: crazy about this one.
24:05
Speaker 1: Well, look, we still have to talk about Denver and
24:09
Speaker 1: we still have to talk about h Washington. Yeah, and
24:13
Speaker 1: so to me, it feels like with both of those
24:17
Speaker 1: is where we're going to go with the fox Hole
24:18
Speaker 1: and big balls. Jacksonville Pittsburgh. So I loved it at
24:22
Speaker 1: two on Sunday night. You said, wait, I got antsy.
24:25
Speaker 1: I betted it two, got up to three. The wise
24:28
Speaker 1: guys hit it. It's settled the two and a half.
24:30
Speaker 1: We're going to have four games. I think we feel
24:33
Speaker 1: really good about and then I think there's going to
24:35
Speaker 1: be a debate on what the fifth game is. The
24:38
Speaker 1: Steelers could sneak in there. Yeah, just bet the Steelers
24:42
Speaker 1: in these spots. Mike Tomlin fifty seven thirty one and
24:46
Speaker 1: four in his career against the spread sixty four and
24:50
Speaker 1: a half percent. It's the most profitable coach in the
24:53
Speaker 1: NFL the past twenty years, sixteen and nine straight up
24:58
Speaker 1: as a home dog, kids want to have a good
25:01
Speaker 1: and by the way, he's winning against teams that are
25:05
Speaker 1: incredibly good as a home dog, Like how many of
25:08
Speaker 1: those games are against Baltimore, right, and Baltimore is always good.
25:11
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is not at that level yet. They should not
25:14
Speaker 1: be a favorite on the road given how inconsistent they
25:18
Speaker 1: have played so far this year.
25:21
Speaker 2: To get the opponent they name those great faces.
25:23
Speaker 1: The public is all in on Jacksonville because of how
25:26
Speaker 1: they've performed the past few weeks, but they've gotten some really,
25:30
Speaker 1: really good spots the past couple of weeks. It's hard
25:34
Speaker 1: not to love the Steelers here.
25:36
Speaker 2: There's only so many times you can keep playing the
25:38
Speaker 2: same spot, Chad, So I'll do it. I'm with Chad.
25:42
Speaker 2: Like I took the three, I've taken the two and
25:44
Speaker 2: a half on Pittsburgh. I mean, we don't have a choice.
25:47
Speaker 2: I hate it, but Chad's right though, Like I could
25:49
Speaker 2: I could see this being one of those where, like
25:52
Speaker 2: you know, we get off the phone call here we
25:53
Speaker 2: make our five. I could see it being our last
25:55
Speaker 2: one and it's just a good number, good spot to
25:58
Speaker 2: play at Pittsburgh. We have no idea how they'll get there,
26:01
Speaker 2: but they'll get there. Like their advantage right now is
26:03
Speaker 2: they have really good receivers against the jack secondary that
26:06
Speaker 2: can be passed on. Like you know there there's questions
26:10
Speaker 2: still to us about that old line for the Jaguars,
26:13
Speaker 2: So you know, advantage Pittsburgh like TJ. Watt, the absolute
26:17
Speaker 2: game wrecker of game wreckers, fully healthy. We know the
26:20
Speaker 2: stats about him when he's playing with Pittsburgh. Him on
26:22
Speaker 2: their team and off the field, it's night and day.
26:25
Speaker 2: Like me and Chad last year, we didn't touch Pittsburgh
26:27
Speaker 2: a lot for the season just because he wasn't playing,
26:30
Speaker 2: and that's that was always a big deal to us.
26:32
Speaker 2: If TJ is not playing, this defense is different. So
26:35
Speaker 2: you know he's fully healthy. Steelers are fully healthy. We're
26:37
Speaker 2: catching a big number the Jaguars. Not that they're looking ahead,
26:42
Speaker 2: but they could be right. They just got to make
26:43
Speaker 2: it through this week and they get to their bye week,
26:45
Speaker 2: and if they win this game, they have a huge
26:47
Speaker 2: lead in their division. Like they know the cost of
26:49
Speaker 2: this game, and you know, not that I think they're
26:52
Speaker 2: going to overlook Pittsburgh, but it feels like a lot
26:54
Speaker 2: of teams this year have and that's what Pittsburgh has
26:56
Speaker 2: been doing. Like they loy you to sleep. So if
26:59
Speaker 2: you like the jack just take them first half, like
27:02
Speaker 2: it seems like Pittsburgh might be one of the worst
27:04
Speaker 2: first half teams will see all season. They just don't
27:06
Speaker 2: play well in the first half, and then second half
27:08
Speaker 2: they just the magic starts happening. Whatever that magic is,
27:11
Speaker 2: that Tomlin magic, that's when it starts happening. So well,
27:13
Speaker 2: you know what it is, guys, Shad right, we'll take
27:15
Speaker 2: that number.
27:16
Speaker 1: It's a honestly what it is, and it's part of
27:19
Speaker 1: it is the chemistry, right, Mike Tomlin is a guy
27:21
Speaker 1: that people like to play for and he gets them
27:24
Speaker 1: ready emotionally but also strategically.
27:27
Speaker 2: I'm gonna look at you real close today to see
27:28
Speaker 2: if you highly conditioned and ready to go, you know
27:31
Speaker 2: what I mean, And if you know, I'm going to
27:32
Speaker 2: put you in the news.
27:33
Speaker 1: They wear people down like that defense comes at you
27:37
Speaker 1: non stop. And TJ Watt how many plays is he
27:40
Speaker 1: making in the second half? We saw it against the Rams, right,
27:43
Speaker 1: first play of the game, interception, runs it back to
27:46
Speaker 1: the three. Then he's in the backfield the entire second
27:49
Speaker 1: half against a really bad offensive line for the Rams.
27:52
Speaker 1: Evan has a great stat here as home dogs facing
27:55
Speaker 1: teams with a sixty plus winning percentage, which is the
27:58
Speaker 1: Jags are fourteen three and one. It's like, we're gonna
28:03
Speaker 1: do it. We're gonna step in it. But look, these
28:06
Speaker 1: are the patterns we play. We talk about big dogs,
28:08
Speaker 1: we talk about divisional dogs, we talk about the Steelers specifically.
28:12
Speaker 1: You want to win those two out of three times.
28:14
Speaker 1: It just so happens we have a confluence of all
28:16
Speaker 1: those things happening at the same time. We've got the
28:19
Speaker 1: big dogs, We've got divisional dogs, We've got the Steelers
28:22
Speaker 1: as dogs. Like you know the ven diagram of these games,
28:27
Speaker 1: it's got three of them have to play in our favor, right,
28:32
Speaker 1: So all of a sudden, it's we're starting to build
28:34
Speaker 1: a profile here. Let's I was going to talk about
28:37
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Indy, and I was going to talk
28:40
Speaker 1: about Cleveland and Seattle. Those games all seem way too
28:43
Speaker 1: funky for me, And to be honest, I don't think
28:45
Speaker 1: we're going to put them in the contest like I think.
28:47
Speaker 1: I think even if we get to six games, we
28:49
Speaker 1: like I think those are seven and eight to me, Seattle.
28:54
Speaker 1: You know with PJ Walker that line's moving into three
28:56
Speaker 1: and a half. Right now, New Orleans has flipped back
28:59
Speaker 1: and forth favorite dog, favorite dog, plus one minus one,
29:02
Speaker 1: plus one minus one. I don't want to skip it.
29:04
Speaker 1: I don't want to speak for you, but to me,
29:06
Speaker 1: unless you feel strongly about these games, these are not
29:09
Speaker 1: contest worthy games to me.
29:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, and from our guy, I Evan PJ Walker six
29:14
Speaker 2: and two ats, including his one loss last week, covers
29:18
Speaker 2: by eleven point six points per game. So PJ is
29:22
Speaker 2: actually surprisingly been good coming into this role, covering as
29:24
Speaker 2: a big dog. The Saints. I did love them. I
29:28
Speaker 2: talked about it. I like that defensive matchup against Minshew.
29:31
Speaker 2: The numbers flipped, Like when we talked about that, it
29:33
Speaker 2: was plus one and a half. Now it's minus one. Evan,
29:36
Speaker 2: Evan sad just rings in the back of my head
29:37
Speaker 2: anytime that happened.
29:38
Speaker 1: So forty two eighty one since twenty nineteen, I think
29:42
Speaker 1: teams that flip from underdog to favorite are forty two
29:45
Speaker 1: and eighty one against the spread. So if you liked
29:48
Speaker 1: New Orleans, hopefully you bet them as dogs. The same
29:51
Speaker 1: thing happened to them, by the way, against the Jaguars,
29:54
Speaker 1: they were one and a half point dogs and they
29:56
Speaker 1: flipped to favorites.
29:58
Speaker 2: Dame game back. Look, the pros we talked to. The
30:00
Speaker 2: pros just love the Saints. They have a great defense,
30:03
Speaker 2: and we're the only ones that like Derek Carr. And
30:05
Speaker 2: I get it. Like I always say, Chris gave us
30:08
Speaker 2: a stab at the beginning of the season, there's no
30:10
Speaker 2: one worse in their red zone than Derek Carr. And
30:14
Speaker 2: that's how true of this entire season. He get between
30:17
Speaker 2: the twenties. This dude, it can get you down the field,
30:19
Speaker 2: get get you in the red zone and dink and
30:21
Speaker 2: dunk his way down there. But then he gets in
30:24
Speaker 2: the red zone, he just cannot make the right decision.
30:26
Speaker 2: And when he does make the right decision, this guy's
30:27
Speaker 2: dropped the ball. So Derek Carr's got a little stink
30:30
Speaker 2: on him right now. So I'm happy not to put
30:33
Speaker 2: this one in as a favorite.
30:34
Speaker 1: Chet Philadelphia at Washington Foxholer, Big Balls, Big Balls, big balls,
30:41
Speaker 1: Bet of the week. This is a decent sized dog
30:46
Speaker 1: at home. It's not the Pros Joe's game. You would
30:49
Speaker 1: think a lot of the tics that are on the Eagles.
30:52
Speaker 1: I'm still seeing. You know, there's more than sixty percent
30:55
Speaker 1: of the tickets around the Eagles, slightly more than fifty
30:58
Speaker 1: percent of the money on the Eagles, but that could
31:01
Speaker 1: be a mixture of weird money. We've seen this line
31:04
Speaker 1: move from seven to six and a half at touch six,
31:07
Speaker 1: it's back at six and a half again. Dogs and
31:10
Speaker 1: divisional games sixty games above five hundred the past decade,
31:14
Speaker 1: forty games above five hundred since twenty twenty. We have
31:18
Speaker 1: at least two big home dogs to put in the
31:20
Speaker 1: contest this week in Washington and Denver. What else were
31:25
Speaker 1: the wise guy saying? This was? This is the first
31:27
Speaker 1: game you mentioned in the sharp calls.
31:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think a lot of us were just
31:31
Speaker 2: debating what's going on the Eagles injury report because Jalen
31:33
Speaker 2: Hurts wasn't on the injury report. A lot of the
31:35
Speaker 2: guys on their team weren't on injury report. A lot
31:37
Speaker 2: of guys we think are banged up, like Lane Johnson.
31:39
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch that film, he didn't
31:41
Speaker 2: look like himself. Now, he did all right in passing pro,
31:44
Speaker 2: but in running pro he can knock get out like
31:46
Speaker 2: he can knot get out and push forward like there's
31:49
Speaker 2: clearly a big injury to Lane Johnson. You know, there's
31:53
Speaker 2: running game just as had not been the same since
31:55
Speaker 2: the early couple of weeks. And I know they've had
31:57
Speaker 2: some injuries to the O line and that is part
31:59
Speaker 2: of why the Eagles run game is been the same,
32:00
Speaker 2: but a lot of it's been putting on Hurts and
32:04
Speaker 2: Washington's biggest struggle is downfield throws. So the fear here
32:09
Speaker 2: if you are betting Washington is you need another samhow
32:12
Speaker 2: like good game like you cant have. Like I think
32:14
Speaker 2: the first time he played, it was thirty four to
32:16
Speaker 2: thirty one the Eagles beat Washington. Are we really expecting
32:21
Speaker 2: this guy to put up thirty one points again? Now?
32:24
Speaker 2: I do not think he'll be doing that, But we're
32:27
Speaker 2: catching them at home in a bilo spot after a
32:30
Speaker 2: bad loss against the Giants, against an Eagles team that
32:34
Speaker 2: everyone's back in on, and I I just have too
32:36
Speaker 2: many questions still about this Eagles team. I have questions
32:38
Speaker 2: about their red zone offense. I have questions about Hurts
32:40
Speaker 2: his turnovers. I Mean, I don't know if he's number one,
32:44
Speaker 2: but he's definitely number two in the league in turnovers.
32:46
Speaker 2: Right now, Like he's just had some really bad turnovers
32:49
Speaker 2: and he's talking about trying to correct that, but I
32:51
Speaker 2: don't know if it's there. And that's because the OC,
32:54
Speaker 2: I don't think puts him in the best position a
32:55
Speaker 2: lot of times. I mean there's sometimes this, Yeah, this
32:58
Speaker 2: OC just makes the most boneheaded. Even to start that
33:01
Speaker 2: Eagles game against Miami, Eagles drive all the way down
33:04
Speaker 2: the field and I think first play in the red zone,
33:07
Speaker 2: so it's whatever was from the eight yard line, it
33:11
Speaker 2: was an incomplete. The second play from the eight yard line,
33:14
Speaker 2: he ran up the middle. I think they gained one yard.
33:16
Speaker 2: The third play was a QB sneak from the seven
33:19
Speaker 2: yard line. It picked up one yard. Like there's certain
33:22
Speaker 2: things he does where he thinks he's being really smart
33:24
Speaker 2: and he's not. He's just being an idiot. And it's
33:27
Speaker 2: it's it's worrisome when you see how good the Coats
33:30
Speaker 2: offense is and it's like, you know, Hurts is really talented,
33:33
Speaker 2: but losing your row c's we always love that's that's
33:36
Speaker 2: a big deal. Like now's he's got a new a
33:38
Speaker 2: new guy calling the plays. The offense is gonna be
33:40
Speaker 2: a little different, and you've noticed that with the Eagles
33:42
Speaker 2: this year, despite them being you know whatever, they are
33:45
Speaker 2: the number two or three best offensive football. It's talent.
33:49
Speaker 2: They have so much talent. It's hard for him not
33:51
Speaker 2: to be that high. Like Hurts, he almost went MVP
33:53
Speaker 2: last year, Like the kids got the goods. It's a
33:56
Speaker 2: lot of it right now is mental. So you know
33:58
Speaker 2: the fact that every money line, all the teasers, all
34:03
Speaker 2: the bets are just pounding this Eagle's number and it's
34:06
Speaker 2: not at seven yet. It's pretty shocking. I thought, me
34:09
Speaker 2: and Chat'll be able to get seven seven and a half.
34:10
Speaker 2: In contest, they're holding at six and a half. So
34:13
Speaker 2: this is one of these we might lock in six
34:14
Speaker 2: and a half today on Thursday. Well, we could end
34:17
Speaker 2: up changing that Sunday morning if it moves up to
34:18
Speaker 2: seven and a half in contest. It's just a big,
34:21
Speaker 2: big number in a divisional game, and yeah, another game.
34:24
Speaker 2: You just you gotta play the percentage here. You have
34:25
Speaker 2: to take this home divisional dog. It's late enough in
34:28
Speaker 2: this season you can take these here. If it was
34:30
Speaker 2: Week one or two, maybe I'd be a little more
34:32
Speaker 2: hesitant now that we're so late in the year. These
34:34
Speaker 2: are the spots you take these divisional dogs.
34:37
Speaker 1: Speaking of divisional dogs, Kansas City at Denver, let me
34:43
Speaker 1: just say right now, we like Green Bay, we like Washington,
34:49
Speaker 1: we like the Giants, we like Pittsburgh. We got three
34:53
Speaker 1: dogs right now, four dogs right now. Kansas City at
34:58
Speaker 1: Denver have the Dolphins and the Eagles coming up. How
35:03
Speaker 1: much are they going to show historically terrible at covering
35:07
Speaker 1: three and a half or more. I've just repeated it again.
35:11
Speaker 1: Dogs sixty games above five hundred in the division games
35:16
Speaker 1: against the spread past decade. No, Nick Bolton and I
35:21
Speaker 1: thought that was a huge, huge difference for them in
35:25
Speaker 1: the first time. These guys played a few weeks ago
35:27
Speaker 1: and we had I think the line was eleven ten
35:31
Speaker 1: and a half. It closed at ten and a half.
35:34
Speaker 1: The Chiefs won by eleven. I already feel like this
35:38
Speaker 1: Denver team is different than that team. Like Javonte Williams
35:41
Speaker 1: has gotten so much better in the past two weeks.
35:44
Speaker 1: You can see his explosiveness and the defense. I think
35:49
Speaker 1: we didn't know if that was the Chiefs offense or
35:51
Speaker 1: the Broncos defense, but I do think it was a
35:55
Speaker 1: little bit more of the Broncos defense than we thought
35:58
Speaker 1: when they held them to points because the Broncos play
36:02
Speaker 1: very well against the Packers. So I feel good about
36:05
Speaker 1: taking the Broncos here.
36:06
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't feel good, but I feel like
36:08
Speaker 2: it's something we have to do. I'm just I'm scared
36:12
Speaker 2: of mahomes are a good defense and it is scary
36:14
Speaker 2: and like I go and watch the film.
36:17
Speaker 1: Though, and I think that's a big deal. No great
36:20
Speaker 1: at a top two three level linebacker this season.
36:22
Speaker 2: I agree. Chad said it like we have to play
36:25
Speaker 2: the number here and it stinks. It's come down so much.
36:28
Speaker 2: I'm hoping we can still get seven and a half
36:29
Speaker 2: in contests. But it also makes me feel good where
36:32
Speaker 2: it's like we were ahead of this, we liked it early.
36:34
Speaker 2: It's come down and you know, obviously I wish I
36:36
Speaker 2: could have got a lot more down the eight and
36:38
Speaker 2: eight and a half, but that's how it goes. And
36:40
Speaker 2: I've been all over the seven and a half and
36:41
Speaker 2: now it's down to seven. So gotta be a foxhole.
36:44
Speaker 2: Bet there's only a couple of people in here with us,
36:46
Speaker 2: you know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
36:48
Speaker 2: foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
36:50
Speaker 2: a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Mahomes eventure was in
36:53
Speaker 2: a correct right. Eventually the spread stuff was in a
36:55
Speaker 2: correct itself and he would get more towards the median.
36:58
Speaker 2: The defense, that's difference. That's been the difference this year
37:01
Speaker 2: there in their last six, I think Evantaas are five
37:04
Speaker 2: and one ats. Yeah, Mahomes has played well, but if
37:07
Speaker 2: you go back and look a lot of those numbers
37:09
Speaker 2: they're covering, it's because of the defense, Like they're turning
37:11
Speaker 2: sevens into threes. And that's the difference. The first time
37:13
Speaker 2: these two teams played, what they kick three freaking freeo goals?
37:17
Speaker 2: This every team like that was that was just a
37:19
Speaker 2: death by a thousand cuts the first time they played.
37:21
Speaker 2: So I got the same expectations here, me and Chad
37:24
Speaker 2: will take the number. We know we're stepping into here, right,
37:27
Speaker 2: we're taking a terrible team against Mahomes. But Chad's right,
37:32
Speaker 2: like these big spreads. I think I said it last
37:35
Speaker 2: week that the Chiefs play with their food and that's
37:37
Speaker 2: that's kind of been their mo ever since Mahomes been
37:40
Speaker 2: their starting quarterback. Because they're so good, they sometimes take
37:43
Speaker 2: the foot off the gas a little bit, and you
37:46
Speaker 2: know it hasn't worked this year. Again, they're five and
37:49
Speaker 2: one the last six, but historically me and Chad have
37:52
Speaker 2: been done well in these spots, so can't avoid it.
37:55
Speaker 2: We'll be on the number. It's just it'll be painful
37:57
Speaker 2: to take six and a half in the contest if
37:59
Speaker 2: that's what it is. I'd feel a lot better at
38:01
Speaker 2: seven and a half.
38:02
Speaker 1: Right now if I had to say our five games
38:06
Speaker 1: and we got one more game to talk about green Bay, Washington, Denver, Pittsburgh,
38:14
Speaker 1: New York Giants, the last game I want to talk
38:18
Speaker 1: about before I talk about the teams that might be
38:20
Speaker 1: on the outside looking in. Arizona Cardinals eight and a
38:23
Speaker 1: half points against Baltimore. Really interesting game. I think we
38:29
Speaker 1: I've bet Arizona plus eight and a half. One of
38:31
Speaker 1: the things that convinced me to do it, it was in
38:34
Speaker 1: our conversation on Tuesday thinking about Kyler Murray and the
38:38
Speaker 1: potential to come back. So he's he is eligible to practice,
38:42
Speaker 1: will he play? We don't know. But I feel like
38:46
Speaker 1: the biggest mistake we've made this year is we haven't
38:50
Speaker 1: been Oh we're now saying that Evan is saying that
38:53
Speaker 1: Baltimore is up to nine nine and a half at
38:55
Speaker 1: some places. We've shot away a little bit from play
39:00
Speaker 1: in the big dogs in these spots at home, and
39:03
Speaker 1: I think that's been a mistake. I don't think Baltimore.
39:06
Speaker 1: I don't think Arizona is a team that I want
39:07
Speaker 1: to play ahead of Washington or Denver. I think both
39:10
Speaker 1: those teams are probably a little bit better, more confidence
39:13
Speaker 1: in them. Bet. Arizona to me is our six team
39:16
Speaker 1: right now.
39:18
Speaker 2: I got some of the teams I like more. I'm
39:20
Speaker 2: with you that I bet this just because I thought
39:22
Speaker 2: Kyler might back you practiced in full yesterday. We'll see
39:25
Speaker 2: if he does it again today. But yeah, as far
39:29
Speaker 2: as dogs go, I don't think it's gonna be on
39:31
Speaker 2: my five biggest bets this weekly. I'm just scared of Lamar.
39:36
Speaker 2: Lamar is playing at a really high level right now.
39:37
Speaker 1: Look you did. You did a great breakdown on the
39:39
Speaker 1: Faves film session yesterday about Lamar and the level that
39:42
Speaker 1: he's playing at. And to be honest, on the Action
39:46
Speaker 1: pod with Stucky in Raybond. Raybond loves the Ravens here,
39:51
Speaker 1: which makes me a little anxious. So I'm fine if
39:55
Speaker 1: we end up not including this. Who do you like more?
40:00
Speaker 1: That could be competing for that fifth spot. If not
40:04
Speaker 1: the Cardinals.
40:06
Speaker 2: First, let me say, if no one hears from me
40:08
Speaker 2: by Sunday, I've been murdered. There's definitely a ghost in
40:11
Speaker 2: my house. I just had a painting fall off the
40:13
Speaker 2: wall and then my TV turned on. I am officially
40:16
Speaker 2: freaked out right now. I don't know. You just said,
40:19
Speaker 2: would you just ask me what's our fifth I.
40:21
Speaker 1: Said, if not, what's what's the sixth? Uh?
40:25
Speaker 2: What is happening right now? That was terrifying?
40:29
Speaker 1: What is the sixth game? Sneaking in?
40:33
Speaker 2: I got you?
40:33
Speaker 1: I just said. I just said I thought there could
40:35
Speaker 1: be the Cardinals. You said, you got other ones you
40:37
Speaker 1: like more.
40:37
Speaker 2: I'm trying to force at least a road team into
40:39
Speaker 2: our picks because right now all we have is home dogs.
40:42
Speaker 2: So I was like, let me find a chalky road
40:44
Speaker 2: favorite that I love. Texans. I'm just beating the drum
40:48
Speaker 2: all week, Houston Texans. No team is worse at rushing
40:54
Speaker 2: the passer than Carolina Panthers. They are the worst than
40:57
Speaker 2: football getting pressure on the QB. Guess who is third
41:00
Speaker 2: in the league passing against no pressure. CJ is incredibly
41:05
Speaker 2: good against no pressure, and we've seen that if you
41:07
Speaker 2: turn on the tape in games where he's not getting
41:09
Speaker 2: pressure and he can do whatever he wants, he's money,
41:12
Speaker 2: like he hits guys in stride. He's just on target.
41:15
Speaker 2: And I love Houston defense matched up against Carolina. So
41:19
Speaker 2: that's when I like that jumps out and then there's
41:21
Speaker 2: forty nine is number? The forty nine ers now re
41:23
Speaker 2: minus three and a half. Yeah, I don't want to
41:26
Speaker 2: be bad mouth and Purdy, right, but we talk of
41:28
Speaker 2: the time. A lot of it's based on the system,
41:31
Speaker 2: and there's a nice system there in place, and there's
41:33
Speaker 2: a lot of good weapons in place, and you do
41:35
Speaker 2: need to make the throws. And that's the fear with
41:37
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold's Can he make the same throws as pretty
41:39
Speaker 2: because Purdy is really good, like I'm making the throws
41:42
Speaker 2: like you can go through and watch his tape this year.
41:45
Speaker 2: I know he has some stinkers that vikings game, but
41:47
Speaker 2: overall he's really good at putting the ball right where
41:49
Speaker 2: he needs to be with guys in stride. So this number,
41:52
Speaker 2: to me has moved too much. If it's three two
41:55
Speaker 2: and a half in contest, Jad, how do we not
41:58
Speaker 2: put the forty nine ers in Like that's that's a
42:01
Speaker 2: good spot to back a team that the public perceives
42:05
Speaker 2: the Bengals is being fixed. They're not. We talked about
42:08
Speaker 2: they did nothing, and that second half against the Seahawks
42:11
Speaker 2: Joe Burrows when one of the one of the worst
42:13
Speaker 2: qbs on downfield throws this season, right, balls that have
42:16
Speaker 2: to go plus twenty plus. He's been terrible. And that's
42:19
Speaker 2: with Chase and t Higgins, two of the best deep
42:22
Speaker 2: ball receivers in football. So I have a lot of
42:26
Speaker 2: questions still about the Bengals team and the fact that
42:28
Speaker 2: everyone's just piling on down all the money's flying in
42:31
Speaker 2: the Bengals because uh, they perceived Sam Donald's a huge downgrade.
42:36
Speaker 2: The books disagree. I think the line moved three two
42:39
Speaker 2: and a half points when it was Sam Donald, which
42:42
Speaker 2: sounds like a lot. I honestly thought Pritty was worth
42:45
Speaker 2: more than that, Like in my mind I thought Perty
42:47
Speaker 2: was worth four or five points. The books are telling
42:49
Speaker 2: you he's not. Like they clearly they moved the number
42:51
Speaker 2: to where they think it should be. So this is
42:54
Speaker 2: when I haven't touched it the forty nine ers. But
42:56
Speaker 2: if it gets to three two and a half, I
42:58
Speaker 2: bet it. Like when it's at three a couple books.
43:00
Speaker 2: I've hit it with this four nine team. I just
43:02
Speaker 2: think that at that point the numbers move too much.
43:05
Speaker 2: Where the Bengals they're not a top three, top fourteen,
43:08
Speaker 2: the AFC like they're still getting treated as such. I
43:11
Speaker 2: just don't think they are right now.
43:13
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we will a reminder for everybody. We
43:19
Speaker 1: enter our initial picks into the contest website on Thursdays
43:24
Speaker 1: after the show, Simon and Ile chat if you want
43:27
Speaker 1: to see the unofficial picks we've entered for the contest
43:29
Speaker 1: before it locks on Sunday, just go to the contest
43:32
Speaker 1: website favorite dot actionnetwork dot com search for the Phase five.
43:38
Speaker 1: That's us. We will lock these in shortly after the show,
43:43
Speaker 1: and then what happens is on Sunday after we do
43:46
Speaker 1: convince me watch it live on YouTube and in the
43:50
Speaker 1: Action Network app. After that, Simon and I talk again
43:53
Speaker 1: and we say, okay, have the lines moved for any
43:56
Speaker 1: games that we like more that we want to take
43:58
Speaker 1: out a game and put a game in. So that's
44:01
Speaker 1: when we make the official lock. But we do put
44:03
Speaker 1: picks in Thursday. Check it out favorites dot actionnetwork dot com.
44:09
Speaker 1: Look for the faves five Simon, can you name the
44:13
Speaker 1: fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
44:15
Speaker 2: Game Time?
44:17
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game
44:19
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Speaker 1: Lowest price guarantee. All right, before we get into our
45:13
Speaker 1: money line underdog round robin, remember that the Week eight
45:17
Speaker 1: contest tiebreaker is total passing yards. On Monday night, Football
45:23
Speaker 1: Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward writes a weekly article
45:28
Speaker 1: about tiebreaker strategy, and a link to that article can
45:31
Speaker 1: be found in this episode's description. If you want a
45:34
Speaker 1: leg up in the contest, luck to all of you.
45:38
Speaker 1: All right, money line, my dog blocks your dog, Your
45:44
Speaker 1: dog blocks mo dog. I'm thinking green Bay.
45:49
Speaker 2: We gotta go Steelers. I mean Tomlin, he's been amazing
45:53
Speaker 2: to us as a dog on the money line.
45:55
Speaker 1: To me, it's Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New York Giants.
45:58
Speaker 2: Go Washington. You just we're hoping here. The egos are
46:01
Speaker 2: looking ahead. It's Dallas week next week. You assume that's
46:05
Speaker 2: on the back of their mind. So just a nice
46:07
Speaker 2: overlook spot. Do I really think Washington's gonna win this game?
46:10
Speaker 2: Probably not, But me and Chat are trying to get
46:12
Speaker 2: some big dogs in here, So I like the value
46:14
Speaker 2: right there on Washington. I mean, we're gonna get our
46:16
Speaker 2: guy Verbel in there with the backup quarterback. Oh right, yeah,
46:20
Speaker 2: for sure, you're Raabel in there.
46:22
Speaker 1: That's five Pittsburgh, Green Bay Giants, Washington, Tennessee.
46:27
Speaker 2: Good. I was gonna say, if we had too, I
46:28
Speaker 2: was gonna say, maybe we can put the Bengals in
46:30
Speaker 2: there in case Sam Darnold sees his own ghost again.
46:33
Speaker 2: But now I'm happy with that five we.
46:35
Speaker 1: Have, Simon, Let's make Little Caesars, which is the official
46:40
Speaker 1: pizza sponsor of the NFL. Part of your game, Tay
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Speaker 1: Simon this Halloween? Do you think handing out slices of
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46:55
Speaker 1: right now? I would love that order online during our
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Speaker 1: pizza pizza that pregame one hour before NFL games and
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Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite
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47:10
Speaker 1: what do you think about this new motto I just invented.
47:13
Speaker 1: If Simon's advice you always trust, then choosing crazy crust
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47:22
Speaker 2: You're a lyrical genius I am.
47:24
Speaker 1: However, you order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning,
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47:39
Speaker 2: The Survivorpool pick of the week?
47:48
Speaker 1: What should our Survivor pick for Week eight? B We
47:51
Speaker 1: snuck one in last week with Seattle.
47:55
Speaker 2: That was never in doubt though, Dallas, Dallas. Jesus chat,
48:00
Speaker 2: what did I just say on Tuesday? We always get
48:02
Speaker 2: knocked out picking Dallas at home in these spots.
48:05
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm blinded by love for Dallas.
48:11
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, like, I usually really used these
48:14
Speaker 2: picks in my big money league, and I think we
48:16
Speaker 2: did use the Bills. I think we've used the Lions.
48:19
Speaker 2: Oh shit, ah shit, Chad, I gotta take We gotta
48:24
Speaker 2: take the Chargers. When else would we use the Chargers?
48:29
Speaker 1: Fuck you?
48:30
Speaker 2: I mean we're getting this D two scrub on the
48:33
Speaker 2: road after our first win of his career.
48:36
Speaker 1: D two scrub? You mean the winner of the Heisman
48:42
Speaker 1: Trophy for the next level of college football whose dad
48:46
Speaker 1: is one of the strongest men in the world. Scrub?
48:49
Speaker 2: Come yeah, so right there, people, Chargers. There's a reason
48:54
Speaker 2: this number is so big. This is not gonna be fun,
48:57
Speaker 2: this is gonna be super stressful. But when else are
49:00
Speaker 2: we going to use them. We got it. We got
49:02
Speaker 2: to use the chargers here. This is this is a
49:03
Speaker 2: huge number, all.
49:05
Speaker 1: Right, Simon. I got an email this week, as I
49:08
Speaker 1: responded to you when you dm me on Twitter and
49:10
Speaker 1: you became a lifelong friend, a loyal listener from Chicago
49:14
Speaker 1: asked me to make it more clear when we are
49:16
Speaker 1: discussing what your biggest bets of the week are. At
49:19
Speaker 1: this point, when Chicago speaks, the world listens, give me
49:23
Speaker 1: your biggest bets right now.
49:26
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it's nowhere near what it was last week.
49:30
Speaker 2: I got a lot of money on the Ravens and
49:32
Speaker 2: the Eagles. Those are just really nice spots. But this
49:35
Speaker 2: week I think we nailed it. Like I'm just I'm
49:38
Speaker 2: just in on the divisional dogs like I've been in,
49:40
Speaker 2: been in on Denver heavy, been on the Packers heavy,
49:43
Speaker 2: I've been in on Washington heavy. If those go over three,
49:49
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take a bath, Like I'll be losing a
49:51
Speaker 2: lot of money. So if you're looking for my biggest
49:54
Speaker 2: bets right now, it's those guys. I have a pretty
49:58
Speaker 2: big position right now in Houston that I'm I'm really
50:00
Speaker 2: nervous about. In a pretty big position on the Giants
50:02
Speaker 2: as well. By Sunday, I could see myself having a
50:05
Speaker 2: lot more on on this Pittsburgh team. I just I've
50:08
Speaker 2: been hoping it gets to three. A lot of books
50:10
Speaker 2: are going to pop the three. That's when I'll come
50:12
Speaker 2: in on this Pittsburgh team. But I don't have that
50:14
Speaker 2: much on them yet at two and a half.
50:15
Speaker 1: I hope you make it. I'm a little worried about
50:18
Speaker 1: the horror show that's going on in your apartment right now.
50:20
Speaker 1: I've been there, man, one hundred percent been there.
50:23
Speaker 2: I definitely texted a girl I'm friends with them, like
50:25
Speaker 2: can I crash at your place? I do not feel
50:27
Speaker 2: comfortable right now. I'm out.
50:28
Speaker 1: I've been visited by the spirits and it's not pretty
50:31
Speaker 1: all right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
50:34
Speaker 1: by Bet three six five. Bet three sixty five doesn't
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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio,
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51:10
Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler or one editor that's off
51:12
Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditions and restrictions apply. As always, we're
51:16
Speaker 1: getting the last word with Evan Abrams, our director of research,
51:20
Speaker 1: to give us the stats and nuggets we need to
51:24
Speaker 1: get smarter. Evan take it.
51:27
Speaker 2: Away the last word with Evan Abrams.
51:31
Speaker 1: We're finished talking.
51:33
Speaker 3: I can't wait for this pod on Sunday night. If
51:35
Speaker 3: Levis and picket cash tickets on Sunday, it's going to.
51:38
Speaker 2: Have and Tom will do it again.
51:40
Speaker 3: I don't even know what we're gonna do, but let's
51:42
Speaker 3: get into a few things here to get to the end.
51:44
Speaker 2: So I want to be clear on one thing.
51:46
Speaker 3: The stat that you guys keep using Open Dog's close
51:49
Speaker 3: favorites at the current moment, that's Houston, Atlanta, and Jacksonville.
51:54
Speaker 3: Obviously a lot can change before Sunday, but those are
51:57
Speaker 3: the three games that fall into that category. Here's number one.
52:01
Speaker 3: So this season so far, it's been pretty profitable to
52:04
Speaker 3: fear the line move, so teams to see their line
52:07
Speaker 3: move three points or more, which would be an example
52:09
Speaker 3: of minus three to minus six eleven nineteen and one
52:13
Speaker 3: against the spread, fifty seventy nine and two against the
52:17
Speaker 3: spread since the start of last year, and one oh
52:19
Speaker 3: seven and one forty three since twenty twenty. A lot
52:22
Speaker 3: of teams fall into that right now, But it is
52:24
Speaker 3: a fear the line move. It's it's Miami, It's KC,
52:27
Speaker 3: It's the Chargers, Texans, Jaguars. There is a lot of
52:31
Speaker 3: teams that Lions, Falcons, so a lot of line movement
52:34
Speaker 3: this week, but hasn't turned out well for those teams
52:36
Speaker 3: against the closing number. So that's number one. Number two.
52:41
Speaker 3: I've been using it and I even gave Simon a
52:43
Speaker 3: version of it earlier in the show. Dogs with low
52:45
Speaker 3: totals have been unreal. So dogs in games of totals
52:48
Speaker 3: below forty two are twenty three eight and one this
52:52
Speaker 3: season against the spread, one sixty and one oh two
52:56
Speaker 3: sixty one percent since twenty eighteen. This week, Cleveland Giants, Titans.
53:02
Speaker 3: Right now, those are the three teams in that spot.
53:05
Speaker 3: And then here are just some like individual quarterback stats.
53:08
Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell loves these, and one of them I actually
53:10
Speaker 3: just looked up because I want to answer a question.
53:12
Speaker 3: So Sam Darnold hasn't covered a game as a favorite
53:16
Speaker 3: since twenty twenty one against Davis Mills. Now he has
53:19
Speaker 3: to do it against Joe Burrows, So good luck with that.
53:22
Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins real fun one. So coming off that big
53:25
Speaker 3: win on Monday Night Football, he is twenty nine forty
53:28
Speaker 3: two and two against the spread coming off a straight
53:31
Speaker 3: up win in his career. That is tied for the
53:33
Speaker 3: worst record in all of football with Jay Cutler over
53:36
Speaker 3: the last twenty years. And even just to push it
53:38
Speaker 3: a little bit further when he's coming off a loss,
53:41
Speaker 3: thirty nine and twenty five against the spread. So it's
53:44
Speaker 3: really a roller coaster at Kirk and you can almost
53:46
Speaker 3: bet on it. And finally, my last stat, just a
53:50
Speaker 3: fun Mahomes one. He has seventeen career losses straight up
53:54
Speaker 3: in his entire career, he has seventeen losses. Russ has
53:57
Speaker 3: sixteen with the Broncos. So if he loses this weekend,
54:00
Speaker 3: you would match Mahomes's career losses. Just with Denver, Russ.
54:03
Speaker 1: Was on a Hall of Fame path. Evan, I feel
54:06
Speaker 1: like you just gave us stats that give us a
54:08
Speaker 1: lot to think about and also make me feel nervous
54:10
Speaker 1: because I feel like half the games were on the
54:12
Speaker 1: same side of those stats, and half the games were
54:14
Speaker 1: on the opposite side of those stats, which is the
54:18
Speaker 1: danger of using just stats. That's why you gotta, as
54:22
Speaker 1: Simon started the show, you got to think holistically about this, right.
54:26
Speaker 1: Betting is about understanding what you're seeing on the field.
54:30
Speaker 1: It's about doing your research. It's about what makes you
54:34
Speaker 1: comfortable to spend when you are making a bet. Bankroll
54:38
Speaker 1: management hugely important. Don't get over your skis, don't be
54:43
Speaker 1: over your tips. And it's thinking, all right, what is
54:46
Speaker 1: the scenario, what is the number? What is the book
54:48
Speaker 1: wanting us to do. There's a lot of signals in
54:52
Speaker 1: the noise. We're trying to help you clean all of
54:56
Speaker 1: those up with these conversations. Reminder Foxholet Denver plus seven,
55:03
Speaker 1: Big Balls, Washington plus six and a half. Exec decision
55:07
Speaker 1: Dallas minus six and a half. If anyone's asking, By
55:11
Speaker 1: the way, my biggest bet last week was Philadelphia my
55:15
Speaker 1: biggest bet this week Dallas Cowboys, Simon says, New York
55:18
Speaker 1: Giants plus three our round robin, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, New
55:24
Speaker 1: York Giants, Washington, Tennessee. If we had to make five
55:29
Speaker 1: picks right now, they would be Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Washington, Denver,
55:35
Speaker 1: New York Giants. I will be honest, I'm skeptical that
55:39
Speaker 1: those will be the final five, just because we don't
55:42
Speaker 1: always do home dogs across the board. Before we sign off,
55:45
Speaker 1: reminder that Simon and I will be back with our
55:48
Speaker 1: Week eight recap episode live on the Action Network YouTube
55:52
Speaker 1: page this Sunday. Every Sunday at seven point thirty Download
55:56
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