Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / F1 Spanish GP 2026 | Betting Preview
Transcript
- f1capper: Apex Insiders is back. Got the Spanish GP. This is F1 Capper. I'm gonna be doing this solo today, actually. So I had a few of the guests not being able to attend today and I'm gonna be out the next few days and we are gonna be starting a free practice on Friday. So figured I will get this recording out today and hopefully you guys can cash by the time we Get to Friday. So we got free practice Friday starting at I believe it's seven thirty AM Eastern. and yeah, I just wanna be able to c talk through normal stuff. You know, we got a new track. This is what I would say flying blind when we're talking about a street course too, especially. So gotta be very careful, gotta be gotta be ready to to react to a lot of the different things that are gonna probably be happening this weekend. I'm sure that a lot of you have probably seen maybe some videos. You definitely probably seen the the layouts and whatnot, but the way I kind of seen this track is one, a lot of close barriers. It's got medium high speed corners, so kind of reminds me of Jeddah, if I had to put it a little bit of some characteristics of of Miami as well. So instantly my mind is gravitating to it's gonna probably be pretty chaotic. So I would advise on taking chalk odds and all sorts of different things like that. So yeah, this is gonna probably be really testing a lot of these drivers, these teams. And you know, again, no no one knows what to expect. But now we're starting to hear the comments too. I did mention this in the premium chat yesterday that, you know. This is gonna be something where it's new to even the season drivers. They they expect chaos as well. They it's when you see how the track is laid out, some of these corners, the speed you gotta go into, there's some corners where it kind of reminds me of of even like Vegas, where if you just clip the corner just barely wrong or you go in a little too much to the inside, you're you're done. Like you're gonna be crashing. So with that being said, one of the biggest things I was saying was red flag is very possible, very, very possible here. safety car very, very possible as well. So when you're seeing any kind of odds, keep that in mind. Like I think DraftKings already had posted safety car at minus two hundred. And normally I don't like to say take a minus two hundred, minus three hundred odds, but at minus two hundred I think that is absolutely value. considering that this is going to be one a new track, low grip surface to s to begin. It's never been driven on. And, you know, teams drivers are gonna get try to get used to this surface as well as the as they're getting through the weekend. So yeah, it's something to definitely keep in the back of your mind is is that. And I think before we before I continu continue on, I wanted to kind of talk through the So they are bringing the C2, C three, C four, which is kind of I guess a more of the harder compound, more medium. They're being they're putting it right on the medium side. So it's not the softest, but it's also not the hardest. which will be interesting too, considering again, we've talked about low grip surfaces. Like how are these how are these drivers going to react when it comes to, you know, when they jump on the C three or this jump jump on the C two, you know. Having the softer compound it benefits them at a newer track because it's you know, it's gonna be very low grip to begin with. So having something softer is is much better. But again, I get it, Pirelli wants to make sure that they're bringing something a little bit more conservative for the race. don't want anything to to blow out or have any issues or anything like that. So they're they're probably doing it in that sense. don't have a lot about, you know. traction here. I mean, but there's not a there's not a lot of h high traction zones. There there are when you get to sector three, but a lot of it is going to be, you know, a little bit of mix of of a lot of medium and high speed. And then yeah, there's going to be some of the low speed cornering, of course. It's got it's got everything. the banking, of course, is is one of the most interesting things about this this track. and in track evolution, of course, it's going to be high. So you're going to see some Whenever you get to qualifying, it's gonna be very volatile. FP, it's gonna be volatile as well. So consider that when you're getting in there, placing any predictions, bets, or anything like that. I mean, I don't know what the tire stress is gonna be like. We're gonna find out this weekend. So, you know, let's see what happens. when that whenever we get to Friday, I think that's when we'll get the real read. So yeah, As far as this track goes, I think it's just gonna be medium down force. I don't think they're gonna you can't do too low and you don't wanna go too high because there's gonna be still some straits that you're gonna have to get through, but you also got a lot of cornering to get through in that. That being said, expectations in terms of what I think. So thinking about this track, like I think I s One thing the way I was thinking about this track was I was like, man, it's like Zanvoort and Jeddah had a baby kind of thing. So Zanvoort is short, but it does have h some of the high speed and some of these corners that are similar in nature to what Madrid Ring has. And then again, being a street circuit, the barriers when you're s when you see them driving, it almost feels like they're they're at Jeddah or even Miami, you can say. in certain parts of Miami, it looks almost kind of similar. way. So one thing I would say is FP one, be careful. very likely you could get caught with the red flag. So when you're chalking, if you're gonna chalk odds, you know, be careful on how much you're gonna be putting down. So unit size appropriately, I would not go crazy. It's not a given, even though we know like the top six drivers or you know top teams are going to be the top you know three or four drivers in that mix. I'd say keep an open mind because you never know, right? It could be about thirty minutes, forty minutes in. Maybe not everyone has done a soft run yet. They're still trying to get grips to like what their setup is in FP one and then all of a sudden someone hits the wall and then it's lost. You've lost maybe like ten minutes, you know, throughout the session. It could be it can happen. So just keep an open mind about that. Be careful with unit sizing, especially in FP one. Let's get a f Let's get a feel of what's gonna happen. So with that said, with FP1, a lot of news about Leclerc not maybe not being able to drive this weekend. He might drive and see how he feels. The fact that that was already coming out, I yeah, my head was already to Lewis. I think even before that, I something about this type of track, it seemed like this could be something where even if Leclerc was was really on point. It was going to take him maybe some time to to get up to speed compared to Lewis. Lewis seems to to have a better grasp of this type of this type of characteristic, I guess. I'm not sure. I mean, it just seems like this year he's just done a lot better when it comes to certain tracks like this. and yeah, I I just think this is one of those those situations where, you know, given what happened in Monza and might be hurt, you know. He might be taking it easy to to start the session. And normally we're the ones that are, you know, FP one, you know, we love backing Leclerc F P one merchant. But I've already taken on Lecl Lewis Hamilton top three at p I think it was at plus one forty at one point. I missed that, but I grabbed it at plus one twenty and then the news is out. So if he's not going to try hard or just gonna get a feel or even doesn't race the love the top three at this point, that's gonna shift. I think it should be closer to minus one twenty, minus one forty, basically where like Russell or or Kimmy's at. So that's one one of the bets I had. we also did Lewis Hamilton over LeClaire in FP one. However that's drifted, it's shifted, you know, I think it was at even money when I got in and probably at this point I don't know what it's at. Minus one fifteen could be even shorter than that. I still don't mind it. And again, if he doesn't for any reason, if he doesn't race, then it's just voids. but if he does, I still kind of like it, but I would not chalk to it. Again, something anything can happen. I'd rather just be not having to give up so much Vig, but you know, unit size. You know, unit size appropriately on that. And then I took the margin. low track surf low grip surface here. as you see, the track evolution is gonna be super high. Drivers are going to try to figure out what's the right deployment strategy. FP1 is truly going to be much about learning what the car capability is, playing with the setup, and then going into FP2. You might see some teams that are gonna either do a drastic change because they weren't seeing what they wanted, or they saw what they wanted, but they want to try something different to see can I gain an extra two tenths? So again, be careful when you're going from FP1 to FP2. Because that could happen. If you think like, hey, this team, let's just hypothetically say Alpine just was terrible in FP one. Well, they might come back and find something in FP two because they are trying something completely different. It could be happening to all the teams, Audi, anyone. So just consider that. Like there's gonna be a lot of testing from FP one, and I I'm almost positive every team is gonna try something different in the going into FP2, unless it's like a team that's just like, hey, we were on it. We felt good. Maybe let's try just to tweak something else. Also, you could probably see drivers within the teams try different types of setups to see which one still is going to be working best going into FP2. So one might still use one setup and the other might try something different. So consider that whenever you're also again unit size appropriately long weekend We don't have to be heroes for this this weekend when it comes to free practice. I know a lot of us love hitting the free practice bets. So just consider that when we're going into free practice. All right. So what do I think about qualifying? again, I think every session we just took on Lewis Hamilton over Leclerc, you know, this was before the news and now the news kind of hit. We're like we even like it even more. I don't know what I'm gonna do with margin yet. I still want to think about doing over. I still feel like it might be over when it comes to qualifying. I'm just not gonna get cute with it. Let's just let's just take it one session at a time with margin. I do love again safety cars. I I think there was a bet fair or something like that. I think someone posted in our chat, you can there are some places maybe that haven't updated, but six to one. was this guy he was posting. I was man, you gotta take that. Six to one is crazy. Red flag is I think is gonna be pretty significant. it it probably will hit. but yeah six to one is a is a great hit. Safety car again if you can find it anywhere below like minus two hundred, I would pr I would be taking that. I think it's very, very likely that we see a safety car here. classified as well. I would be surprised if we have 20 cars finishing here. I just don't see how ever we're gonna get something super clean. Maybe we do, but I I just don't. I think we're gonna definitely see three DNFs at minimum. maybe more, I don't know. so I think it's something that I'd definitely be taking on the classified markets. And this is something I have not even played that much, if at all, this year, because it's just been so juiced to one side or the other. But I d I do believe, I think I'm gonna take on the 18 and a half, maybe see what the 19 and a half. If the 19 and a half is at a minus 150, minus 140, I'll I'll under, I'll be taking that one for sure. I even liked what DraftKings had at the under 18 and a half minus one ten. I think that's pretty fair. I think that is something that you can you can consider as well. what else? Let's see. I do love I think I wanted to get into let me see was one market I actually really liked. I think if you're going to I do think Audi is going to be better this this weekend than they were last weekend. It was something I talked about where they just lack in their top end speed compared to the other teams. Now they're back to a a place where they can kind of bridge the gap because there's going to be low mo lower and medium high speed cornering versus just a full-on power track. And hey, they looked actually pretty damn good. At Monza. So I think they're going to be back in the mix. This is a weekend where I think I'm going to be fading Alpine. Alpine had something I read about Alpine was they were able to maximize their qualifying opportunity at one in this track because they also used a different type of overtake mode with their wing. Instead of it going up, it actually comes down, and they were able to find some pace out of that. And that's why you were able to see them. That's why Gasly was able to get pole, especially on top of that. He has the Merc PU. I think this is going to be a little bit different. You know, this is not about the the power units anymore. It's about, you know, how much arrow, the, the, the car itself, what have you developed in the car? And one thing we've noticed is Alpine has had struggles at times and at these types of characteristics of cars. So I do think it's going to come back to reality for them. they might be strong. I think it's still gonna be competitive. It's not like they were far off of like Racing Bulls or Audi to begin with. They're all in the mix, but if at this point I think the books are overreacting to Alpine's performance last week, especially that ghastly gut pull. So now I want to attack the other way. I was able to get on Calci and get Hulk. not my favorite Audi driver, but he was at I think two to one for top ten. I of course am gonna say no to that. So that was actually one of my bets as well. So if you can find something like that where it's Audi two to one plus one fifty for top ten, Bordoletto, obviously one of my favorite drivers on the grid to bet. That's where you want to back it. Racing Bulls as well. It's it's they should do fine. I'm curious. I don't know how some most of these drivers are gonna do, but Lynn Blad, I mean, he's he's putting on a pretty good season for being a rookie. So, I think he will he can easily get into the top ten. seems like he's been adapting well to any track he's gone to, new tracks too, and they have a car that's that's that can be pretty strong over here. W William's probably not gonna be anywhere. However, I did mention this. if you do assume there is going to be chaos in the race, which I mean, if I'm already shilling some red flags and safety cars, obviously that's gonna happen. Consider that like eighteen to one you can take on a signs, eighteen to one you could take on Albon for top ten. You can get that on DK right now. and they're not gonna get it on pure pace, it's just gonna be pure luck. If we end up getting some of these random safety cars and just c what if we get like I can't remember which race where we only had fourteen drivers actually finish the race, right? Like then they if they just keep it clean in the back, then they can be up there just by luck. So, Something to keep just an open mind about is, you know, if you do expect chaos, maybe you do take on some of these long shot drivers to do something like that. so yeah, that's where I'm kind of my head's out with some of the midfield drivers. Do Aston Martin. Obviously, we knew they were gonna struggle last week. They don't have the engine that can get them through a Monza type power like they don't have the power unit for that. They should do a little bit better here. I don't think they're gonna be anything like Top ten midfield worthy whenever it gets to qualifying, this is gonna be something where they're going to maybe maximize their opportunity to get to like P sixteen, P fifteen, something like that. So that's where I see Aston Martin. so yeah, I think that when we're talking about odds, you might be able to find some something for Alonzo in the top ten. I think someone found Cal she was offering eight to one to get in the top ten. I'm not really wanting to to dive into that, but if you really think again, chaos, maybe maybe he does get in there. Who knows? so yeah, that's where my where I'm gonna be looking as well. And yeah, I think also when it comes to the top teams, I am a little worried about Mercedes, the When they were at Zanvoort, they you know, there was some elevation, there was banking, there was all sorts of different things that were happening in terms of the track. And here we are, we're back to a track that has some similarities too. That some elevation, the banking, and everything. Well, now how are how's that car going to react whenever they get onto track? Because they were having some balance issues in Zam Zanvoort with that to maximize the opportunity. They had the same thing happen in Hungary. so th I don't I don't know if it's just going to be a runaway, and I'm not going to even say Russell. I'm going to say Kimmy. Russell, I think, will have his moment, struggle, whatever you want to call it. So that makes me think that I think McLaren Norris actually benefits in this situation because he has a car that is should be well rounded for a type of track like this. So you don't need to have the full on top end speed like you needed at Monza. However, they have a car that is as extra. really superior when it comes to the medium cornering speeds. So that's where I think they will maximize their opportunity. Ferrari should do fine. That's this is where they should should be able to shine in these types of types of cornering the characteristics. I expect Red Bull to struggle. I think that they've had balance issues throughout the year and you're gonna continue to see that. Will they get it though from Friday to Saturday? It seems to be the trend. He Max complains like what is going on? And then f somehow he finds it on on Saturday. So possibly keep an open mind about it. so yeah, I think that I think the the team or the driver I'd be eyeing to win, although I'm not gonna be getting cute with outrights or anything like that right now, is Lando. I think Lando is the guy that actually maybe puts it and wins it this weekend. But you never know again. Like I I am just very I'm being very cautious of Mercedes and not going to be cute with it. So as far as any other bets that you want to consider markets, again, I've talked about the classified markets, I've talked about let's see, the red flags, I've talked about top three in FP1. I think one of the other markets that you if you want to try to consider is Q2, Q3. I think that what we're gonna see is is, you know, with the track evolution, someone's gonna be one mistake and you're gonna be left out. I don't know what the timing sheet's gonna look like. So that's why it's kind of hard for me to tell you. I'd I'd really wanna see what FP1's gonna be like. But I I wouldn't be surprised if we see some surprise guys not make it to Q3. Or maybe they, you know, we see some guys that are supposed to be like, that we're doing well throughout the weekend, like a ghastly, and then all of a sudden he can't even make it out of Q one, right? Like it that can happen this weekend because track evolution is gonna be high and you know, no one knows this track. So I would say like let's look for the opportunity when it comes to the Q two, Q three, Q one, getting out of it. And don't chalk to it. I just I would not do that unless it's a Norris, but even then, like I I just would advise from chalking anything like that. Wouldn't get cute with it. You know, we still got other races we can get cute with. So and let's let's go ahead and see what FP one's gonna be like. gonna go back to the well. gotta go back to Bort over Hulk, but I think right now it's juiced. I don't think it's worth it. Right now I'm seeing around minus one sixty. I'll k I'll keep spying and seeing what's out there. Definitely will am trying to look at that for qualifying for the race. even though yeah, I do have Hulk at top ten for two to one. So just hoping that he does get into the top ten. So we'll see. I don't have anything else. I mean, this is again, we're all flying blind. No one knows what. Just take advantage of what is given to you. Be ready to to zag when everyone's zigging, you know, zig zag. And yeah, I think they I think that this is gonna be an interesting weekend. I think that there's a lot of opportunities still that we're trying to attack on. But right now, I mean my from what I've seen and how I've seen this track and now the comments are coming out and I think the books will s are starting to catch on. This looks like it it's we're gonna see some some red flags, some safety cars, some something, and they're not reflecting that right now. I think they they just don't I don't know why. And that's what's kind of puzzling in my mind is what what am I not seeing? And it's now everyone is you know, echoing the same thing. Like there's even Max made a comment about it. So take advantage of it. Find that safety cars, find that red flag, and then get into the Discord. We're definitely gonna have a lot of lot of live chatting going on. And we're gonna we're just gonna have to just adapt as we get information, as we see F P one, because I'm not gonna be a hundred percent, of course. So I might be wrong on a but a bunch of different things. So we'll adapt to it as we see what's going on in F P one and F P two. So yeah. Looking forward to this weekend. It's kinda exciting that we are actually getting a track that we've never been to and we're gonna, you know, hopefully attack in the market and let's just pray we don't We don't get burned this week and we're we're on a pretty good streak right now. So let's let's keep streaking. So get into Discord again, premium chat, thirty dollars a month. You get access to our premium chat, all the data, all the tipsters, picks. So, you know, get a seven day free trial, I believe. So if you've never tried it, go ahead. This is your weekend to try it. You can try it. If you don't like it, then you can cancel. But either way, we'd love to have you in there. a lot of good sharp action and s sharp talks. Going to happen around in the Discord in the premium chat specifically. So, and we'll see you this weekend, guys.