Latest / Crosstabs / 2024 Primary Election Results: Part Two
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_01: We're cleared to engage.
- 0:01SPEAKER_01: Time on target, 5 miles.
- 0:24SPEAKER_00: Here we go to the legislature.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: Now,
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: in episode two,
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: we covered a lot of these legislative primaries,
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: and I'm looking at this,
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: and all the bold names pretty much are the ones who won here,
- 0:38SPEAKER_00: Brian.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Let's take a look and start.
- 0:41SPEAKER_00: I think we'll start out in the House.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: House District 8, Lisa Fragula versus Doyle Canning.
- 0:50SPEAKER_00: I think people thought this was going to be a close one, Brian.
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: A lot of things this race was close, not one of them.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: Ain't that the truth.
- 0:59SPEAKER_01: I think it was interesting because this was,
- 1:02SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 1:03SPEAKER_01: this seat had so much intensity right with the recall and everything.
- 1:07SPEAKER_01: And then for it to really turn into just kind of a nothing burger is pretty interesting.
- 1:16SPEAKER_00: I think Doyle is sort of one of those people who belongs to like the...
- 1:20SPEAKER_00: There's a little bit of a squad vibe in Oregon,
- 1:23SPEAKER_00: and Doyle sort of belongs to it.
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: The people that she thanked in her thank you email that I read the other day.
- 1:30SPEAKER_01: This is the one that... So DeFazio came back out of the woodwork and just plowed Doyle Canning, right?
- 1:39SPEAKER_01: Because she filed against him one time in a primary.
- 1:43SPEAKER_01: And this is where...
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: You know,
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: you kind of got to watch what you do sometimes,
- 1:48SPEAKER_01: I guess,
- 1:48SPEAKER_01: if you're a candidate running for office,
- 1:50SPEAKER_01: because it can.
- 1:51SPEAKER_01: And if you just kind of, oh, it'll be fun to run for Congress.
- 1:54SPEAKER_01: Ding, ding, ding on somebody.
- 1:55SPEAKER_01: And then that person came back to running TV ads against you in some lonely little state rep race.
- 2:01SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if it was that, but I think there is a machine in Lane County for Democrats down there.
- 2:08SPEAKER_01: That's for sure.
- 2:09SPEAKER_01: And she was not part of it.
- 2:12SPEAKER_00: I think we should call it the Holvey machine, Brian.
- 2:15SPEAKER_00: He's sort of the patriarch of that situation up there with his 90-10 recall victory.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: And this, I mean, close margin to that, 73-26 is pretty rough.
- 2:26SPEAKER_00: But not as rough as it got for some others here.
- 2:29SPEAKER_00: We're scrolling down to the 12th Republican primary.
- 2:33SPEAKER_00: Darren Harvick versus incumbent Charlie Conrad.
- 2:37SPEAKER_00: Not only was this a healthy victory for Harvick, Conrad got destroyed 17% for the incumbent Republican.
- 2:44SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure I've seen an incumbent get that low of a number in my entire political history, Brian.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that was really, it might be the lowest an incumbent's ever gotten.
- 3:00SPEAKER_01: And we don't have to look that up because that 17% is...
- 3:05SPEAKER_01: I mean, 1200 people.
- 3:07SPEAKER_01: Those are probably 1200 people.
- 3:08SPEAKER_01: I think that Jim Moore was talking about that knew who they're voting for when they showed up.
- 3:14SPEAKER_01: They were intentional.
- 3:16SPEAKER_01: I thought I'm guessing there.
- 3:18SPEAKER_01: I think that, you know, I hope that Harvick will be a good candidate.
- 3:23SPEAKER_01: I mean, I've had the pleasure of meeting him a couple of times.
- 3:27SPEAKER_01: I think he'll be a good guy.
- 3:28SPEAKER_01: I didn't do anything on this race.
- 3:30SPEAKER_01: I think Ride the Life really flexed their muscles in this race a little bit.
- 3:34SPEAKER_01: And I think that Charlie really underestimated
- 3:40SPEAKER_01: the value of what,
- 3:41SPEAKER_01: what kind of litmus tests that we have in the Republican party and,
- 3:47SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 3:47SPEAKER_01: right to life and guns are probably the two.
- 3:49SPEAKER_01: And I'd say really at the top of that these days is just right to life.
- 3:52SPEAKER_01: I think that that's a,
- 3:54SPEAKER_01: I think you could even overcome a gun issue because our gun groups in this state
- 3:58SPEAKER_01: are horrible that try to hold people accountable for gun stuff.
- 4:02SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know how horrible Kevin stared as a holding people accountable for crap.
- 4:06SPEAKER_01: So I think that right to life is just a way different scenario where they said,
- 4:11SPEAKER_01: well,
- 4:11SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 4:11SPEAKER_01: we're going to put our money where our mouth is.
- 4:13SPEAKER_01: And they had I think they had a good candidate, too.
- 4:15SPEAKER_01: I think that really helps when you have a quality candidate like Darren that that
- 4:19SPEAKER_01: stepped up and just said,
- 4:20SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 4:21SPEAKER_01: this is not what I want representing me.
- 4:24SPEAKER_01: the communities over here of what, you know, Eastern Lane County kind of groups over there.
- 4:29SPEAKER_01: It's pretty conservative.
- 4:30SPEAKER_01: I think that Charlie was mistaken by the four-way primary that he won two years ago
- 4:38SPEAKER_01: and thinking that a centrist mentality was what people wanted in that district.
- 4:44SPEAKER_01: And I think that's probably where
- 4:46SPEAKER_01: he maybe went wrong, but I don't know.
- 4:49SPEAKER_01: I don't think Charlie's a bad guy.
- 4:51SPEAKER_01: I think that he just made a very bad decision and a bad vote and was not willing to
- 4:59SPEAKER_01: understand the ramifications of that bad vote and wasn't really coming to terms
- 5:05SPEAKER_01: with it.
- 5:06SPEAKER_01: And like I said,
- 5:07SPEAKER_01: I think when we talked about this race,
- 5:09SPEAKER_01: I said,
- 5:09SPEAKER_01: at least now he can say he's a former state representative.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: Brian, I think also there you just look at that and you go, you really need to respond.
- 5:21SPEAKER_00: When voters are telling you something,
- 5:23SPEAKER_00: when you're getting that response back,
- 5:25SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 5:25SPEAKER_00: I know he was getting a hard time right after that vote.
- 5:28SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: it took a while for them to actually get the candidate and all that stuff,
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: and there was plenty of time for him to come off of it and say,
- 5:34SPEAKER_00: you made a mistake,
- 5:34SPEAKER_00: and I think that would have made that race closer if he had admitted that.
- 5:38SPEAKER_00: But he wasn't willing to admit it, so he goes down.
- 5:41SPEAKER_00: with the ship next close race this one's still considered too close to call i still
- 5:49SPEAKER_00: think house district 16 sammy versus sarah i think sarah finger mcdonald is likely
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: you'd rather be her than sammy but i will tell you brian the trend is in the blue
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: counties the progressive harder left votes come late and in the red counties the
- 6:05SPEAKER_00: conservative votes show up late
- 6:07SPEAKER_00: So there's a chance that Sammy catches up and turns this one into a ballot curing battle.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: So we'll keep an eye on this one.
- 6:14SPEAKER_00: But it's the closest primary in the state, I think.
- 6:17SPEAKER_01: Were we split on this one?
- 6:18SPEAKER_01: Didn't I take Sammy and you took Sarah?
- 6:22SPEAKER_00: I forgot to note who you took.
- 6:24SPEAKER_01: Because I think I went with my conventional wisdom that the white liberals will
- 6:28SPEAKER_01: choose the name they can't pronounce.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: Looking like a decent prediction there, Brian.
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: I'm with you.
- 6:39SPEAKER_01: I'd rather have a 200 vote lead, you know, then there'll be the one behind.
- 6:43SPEAKER_01: There's no doubt about it.
- 6:45SPEAKER_01: Especially this late in the game, 10,000 votes, probably the next update.
- 6:54SPEAKER_01: I don't think there's 200 ballots out there, 10,000 votes on a primary and,
- 6:59SPEAKER_01: In a state rep race, I can't imagine there's 200 more ballots out there.
- 7:03SPEAKER_01: So if I were predicting this, I'd say that your next state representative there is Sarah Finger McDonald.
- 7:10SPEAKER_01: And that's Rayfield's district in Corvallis.
- 7:13SPEAKER_01: So it's definitely a blue district, very progressive, very university-ish.
- 7:20SPEAKER_01: So it's going to have a lot of those professors voting and stuff in that district.
- 7:25SPEAKER_01: you know, and a very high turnout.
- 7:27SPEAKER_01: Actually, probably one of the higher turnouts that we saw.
- 7:30SPEAKER_01: But that's what happens when you get some contested issues like this,
- 7:33SPEAKER_01: especially in a concentrated area like Corvallis,
- 7:37SPEAKER_01: where a lot of people are going to turn out.
- 7:40SPEAKER_01: It makes it really easy for them to do it, to vote.
- 7:43SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 7:44SPEAKER_01: Because they're just in Corvallis and it's just the city.
- 7:46SPEAKER_01: There's not like even Charlie Conrad's.
- 7:48SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 7:49SPEAKER_01: district where we were just talking about is,
- 7:50SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 7:51SPEAKER_01: she's,
- 7:52SPEAKER_01: you're going from blue river all the way up to almost to Corvallis,
- 7:56SPEAKER_01: right.
- 7:57SPEAKER_01: It's like junction city and stuff.
- 7:58SPEAKER_01: So yeah, huge swaths of land, which is just a lot harder for people to vote.
- 8:03SPEAKER_01: So yeah.
- 8:04SPEAKER_01: We'll see.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: From the river to the sea, Oregon State University will be free.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: Is that what you're telling me, Brian?
- 8:10SPEAKER_00: That's pretty good.
- 8:11SPEAKER_01: Did you come up with that one?
- 8:12SPEAKER_01: Or did you write that before we started?
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: No,
- 8:15SPEAKER_00: I just came up with it because I'd gotten a text from somebody the other day who
- 8:17SPEAKER_00: was at the campus and was taking a picture of the tents.
- 8:21SPEAKER_00: And they said the Free Palestine Movement has officially taken over one-eighth of an acre.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: And I asked if that was large enough for a Palestinian state.
- 8:32SPEAKER_00: um so i uh anyway just some humor there to keep people uh engaged on this stuff uh
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: now we go up to portland house district 33 maxine dexter's leaving this district
- 8:46SPEAKER_00: and what i thought was going to happen here did happen shannon jones isidor uh or
- 8:53SPEAKER_00: isidore i'm not sure exactly how it's pronounced
- 8:56SPEAKER_00: wins with 51% of the vote would have actually won outright.
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: But I don't think it helped that Pete Gabriel and Brian and Judy were splitting the vote.
- 9:05SPEAKER_00: Brian gets 20%.
- 9:07SPEAKER_00: Pete gets 27%.
- 9:10SPEAKER_00: I even saw a Pete Gabriel ad where he was basically saying he wrote Obama's climate
- 9:16SPEAKER_00: plan or something like that.
- 9:18SPEAKER_00: And I loved that ad because it really illustrated something that I try to put into
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: practice in politics and try to explain to people.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: When you say something, whether it's true or not, it has to be believable.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: And I just didn't believe that this guy running for state rep in District 33 wrote Obama's climate plan.
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: Maybe he did, but it wasn't a believable claim to me.
- 9:40SPEAKER_00: And there was no video of Barack Obama saying, I love this guy.
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: And so I just think it probably fell flat.
- 9:46SPEAKER_00: uh for me and then i didn't see much from brian duty um but i know that shannon
- 9:51SPEAKER_00: jones got the willamette week endorsement and i think that was helpful in defining
- 9:55SPEAKER_00: herself as a you know progressive because biden's leaving she'll be the only black
- 10:00SPEAKER_00: woman in the oregon house i think that was also really good for her in terms of a
- 10:05SPEAKER_00: campaign talking point and to really drive and build an identity uh with voters and
- 10:10SPEAKER_00: ultimately i think that just all kind of won out
- 10:13SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think we both let in with Shannon because she got the Willamette Week endorsement.
- 10:18SPEAKER_01: And it looked like from there,
- 10:21SPEAKER_01: there was a real movement of a watershed of a lot of those progressive groups that
- 10:26SPEAKER_01: I saw up around Portland that are just hopping on our bandwagon,
- 10:30SPEAKER_01: like OLCV and a lot of those ones were really getting behind her.
- 10:34SPEAKER_01: And she just kind of moved on to it.
- 10:36SPEAKER_01: I agree with you.
- 10:37SPEAKER_01: That's a very interesting move.
- 10:39SPEAKER_01: If you wrote President Obama's
- 10:42SPEAKER_01: climate action plan i feel like you could have got as endorsement for a race like
- 10:47SPEAKER_01: this if you were the guy that wrote is literally wrote the president's climate
- 10:53SPEAKER_01: action plan or were you just in the room and you're a footnote on writing a climate
- 10:59SPEAKER_01: action plan so to your point it's a little unbelievable
- 11:04SPEAKER_01: which I think you're right.
- 11:06SPEAKER_01: I think some of the voters,
- 11:07SPEAKER_01: especially the intentional voters that Jim Moore talks about,
- 11:13SPEAKER_01: probably knew that.
- 11:14SPEAKER_01: I think that that probably would be the case.
- 11:16SPEAKER_01: Shannon seemed like she's great.
- 11:18SPEAKER_01: I think what we mentioned in this race, what we found interesting is that all three were
- 11:23SPEAKER_01: you know, had super excellent resumes.
- 11:26SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 11:27SPEAKER_01: besides the fact that the Democrats,
- 11:28SPEAKER_01: but outside of that,
- 11:30SPEAKER_01: they had three great resumes that,
- 11:33SPEAKER_01: that we saw that was pretty impressive.
- 11:35SPEAKER_01: So,
- 11:35SPEAKER_01: and Reagan,
- 11:36SPEAKER_01: I'm going to,
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: we just talked about 16,
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: but you know,
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: the,
- 11:39SPEAKER_01: the true closest primary in Oregon is the Republican nomination for house.
- 11:49SPEAKER_01: Because Dan Baumhofer,
- 11:52SPEAKER_01: 95-year-old Stan Baumhofer is leading Dick Corder by 23 votes, as we thought.
- 12:02SPEAKER_01: For their team, who's in the general?
- 12:06SPEAKER_01: Two, Shannon.
- 12:07SPEAKER_01: They are splitting the vote, apparently right down the middle, but
- 12:13SPEAKER_01: And there can be another Republican that's left to vote in that district.
- 12:18SPEAKER_01: So they got a thousand of them.
- 12:19SPEAKER_01: I didn't know there's a thousand Republicans in District 33.
- 12:22SPEAKER_01: If I was them,
- 12:23SPEAKER_01: I'd move the Clackamas County in a hurry,
- 12:26SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 12:26SPEAKER_01: before you're found out where you're at.
- 12:30SPEAKER_00: Because those thousand Republicans are going up against 10,613 Democrats.
- 12:36SPEAKER_00: That does crack me up, Brian.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: And I've seen Dick's name on the ballot before.
- 12:40SPEAKER_00: I think he's run.
- 12:40SPEAKER_00: And I think Stan got it because he wasn't Dick.
- 12:44SPEAKER_00: So, you know, good for them.
- 12:45SPEAKER_00: A tough one.
- 12:47SPEAKER_00: But,
- 12:48SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 12:48SPEAKER_00: maybe we'll have one of them on the podcast to talk about that close and
- 12:51SPEAKER_00: hard-fought primary.
- 12:53SPEAKER_01: The losers moving out of there,
- 12:54SPEAKER_01: they're not going to be able to handle the shame of losing in the primary in Portland.
- 13:02SPEAKER_01: Hey, Republicans, just so you're aware, you know that it's public record.
- 13:07SPEAKER_01: If you're a Republican in Southeast Portland living there, they can figure that out.
- 13:11SPEAKER_01: So just so you know, just letting you know, make sure you're aware of that.
- 13:15SPEAKER_01: So if you need to move to Clackamas County, you better.
- 13:18SPEAKER_01: Ben West is waiting for you.
- 13:19SPEAKER_01: So head on out there.
- 13:23SPEAKER_00: All right,
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: House District 40 Republican primary,
- 13:27SPEAKER_00: and I think this is setting up a key race in November,
- 13:30SPEAKER_00: clearly.
- 13:30SPEAKER_00: Anessa Hartman, the incumbent Democrat, got 4,400 votes.
- 13:34SPEAKER_00: The Republicans combined got 4,100 votes, and this was a very close one in 2022.
- 13:41SPEAKER_00: Michael Newgard defeats Sue Leslie.
- 13:44SPEAKER_00: I think both of them would need to build name IDs.
- 13:48SPEAKER_00: in the general election, both starting from a very similar position.
- 13:52SPEAKER_00: Michael takes this one and will, you know, ramp up for the fall.
- 13:57SPEAKER_01: Well, this is a good test.
- 13:58SPEAKER_01: I mean, the vote count for both sides were fairly similar.
- 14:01SPEAKER_01: I think you now have an incumbent in Anessa Harpens,
- 14:05SPEAKER_01: which is going to give her an advantage going into the general for sure.
- 14:10SPEAKER_01: Speaking of voting record that we talked about with Charlie Conrad, I would say that she
- 14:15SPEAKER_01: did about all that she could do to try to portray herself as a moderate in the building.
- 14:22SPEAKER_01: So I think that she's done a decent amount of work in that respect, including even dating a Republican.
- 14:31SPEAKER_01: So I think that's interesting.
- 14:33SPEAKER_01: But we'll find out in the 40 where this one goes.
- 14:38SPEAKER_01: I think Michael Newgard's got a really good...
- 14:43SPEAKER_01: resume but i didn't see a lot of fundraising activity on his side of the fence i
- 14:48SPEAKER_01: didn't see a lot of community support which would concern me uh i i've seen a lot
- 14:54SPEAKER_01: you know i see i saw anessa raise a lot of money mostly lobby money so this could
- 14:58SPEAKER_01: be the battle of you know who who can get outside groups to bring in enough money
- 15:03SPEAKER_01: because this was a close one 160 votes or so in the
- 15:06SPEAKER_01: Two years ago.
- 15:07SPEAKER_01: So it should be close again.
- 15:08SPEAKER_01: I mean, the way it's stacking up, regardless of what happens, it'll be a close.
- 15:12SPEAKER_01: I think this will be a close battle.
- 15:13SPEAKER_01: I think it's the lot.
- 15:15SPEAKER_01: It's truly that Clackamas, Multnomah County line.
- 15:18SPEAKER_01: It's like the DMZ between Portland and Clackamas County.
- 15:22SPEAKER_01: So it should be an interesting race.
- 15:25SPEAKER_01: I look forward to it.
- 15:28SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
- 15:29SPEAKER_00: Another one of the key races in the fall, HD48.
- 15:33SPEAKER_00: We've got Andrew Morrison and John Masterman that were competing.
- 15:39SPEAKER_00: Masterman really ran away with this one.
- 15:41SPEAKER_00: And Brian,
- 15:42SPEAKER_00: I think you and I both called that mostly because Masterman was on the ballot last time,
- 15:46SPEAKER_00: got extremely close.
- 15:48SPEAKER_00: And I think the Republicans down there want to give him another shot.
- 15:52SPEAKER_00: Ultimately, Masterman also ran more as a conservative.
- 15:55SPEAKER_00: He really wanted to earn more.
- 15:56SPEAKER_00: The Republican vote, I think, you know, Andrew is probably a nice guy.
- 15:59SPEAKER_00: I met him, but it seemed like he was running a general election campaign in a primary.
- 16:04SPEAKER_00: And that doesn't work when you've got competition, when you're competing there.
- 16:08SPEAKER_00: They competed.
- 16:11SPEAKER_00: Masterman won.
- 16:12SPEAKER_00: Masterman now needs a load up to take on Hua Wen in the general election.
- 16:18SPEAKER_00: This one, the deficit much bigger.
- 16:20SPEAKER_00: in the voting but i think 48 may be partially covered by one of those high turnout
- 16:25SPEAKER_00: congressionals that really drove some extra turnout so i expect this one to be
- 16:29SPEAKER_01: pretty close in the fall yeah i hope i hope so i think these were definitely the
- 16:35SPEAKER_01: democrat numbers were a little higher and i think you're probably right probably
- 16:38SPEAKER_01: because of the cd3 race that was probably driving some more of those people to the
- 16:42SPEAKER_01: polls and republicans had nothing to vote for there so uh
- 16:47SPEAKER_01: the one you know i'll make this note so the willamette week i went through their
- 16:51SPEAKER_01: endorsements and they got every one of their candidates right except for this race
- 16:57SPEAKER_01: they chose andrew morrison in their race so it tells you that the willamette week
- 17:01SPEAKER_01: and they didn't really choose many uh republicans oh wait they also they're also
- 17:07SPEAKER_01: behind in uh
- 17:08SPEAKER_01: because they chose Dick Corder in that race with Baumhofer.
- 17:12SPEAKER_01: So in the two races that they're behind in Willamette Week, they're both Republican races.
- 17:17SPEAKER_01: Go figure that they don't know what's going on in some of our Republican primaries.
- 17:23SPEAKER_01: But I think you're right.
- 17:25SPEAKER_01: I think Masterman, you know, it's also a unique name.
- 17:29SPEAKER_01: You and I talked a lot about political branding and stuff like that.
- 17:32SPEAKER_01: You kind of don't forget it.
- 17:34SPEAKER_01: Morrison's kind of just an everyday,
- 17:36SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 17:37SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 17:37SPEAKER_01: if I was him,
- 17:38SPEAKER_01: I would have had a logo like the bridge.
- 17:40SPEAKER_01: I'd have done something, you know, like tying the Morrison bridge or, you know what I mean?
- 17:45SPEAKER_01: Like there was,
- 17:45SPEAKER_01: there could have been so many things you could have done there to help that voter
- 17:49SPEAKER_01: retention of your name that they didn't do.
- 17:52SPEAKER_01: And I know Masterman, we know who ran his race and Masterman's race.
- 17:57SPEAKER_01: And I know who ran the other guy's race and I'll,
- 17:59SPEAKER_01: I'll bet on David Claude any day and twice on Sunday and that matchup.
- 18:03SPEAKER_01: So especially with a guy like Masterman who just works, I mean, he was out doing doors and, and,
- 18:10SPEAKER_01: The dude will go knock on doors.
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: So props to him.
- 18:14SPEAKER_01: Hopefully now he knocks on not the Republican doors,
- 18:18SPEAKER_01: but really knocks on those swing voters and those swing Democrats and really tells
- 18:22SPEAKER_01: them that,
- 18:23SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 18:24SPEAKER_01: the Democrats really have failed those people in southeast Portland Foster Road area.
- 18:28SPEAKER_01: And that's really where it needs to be won.
- 18:31SPEAKER_00: Masterman, it makes me think of Fetterman.
- 18:33SPEAKER_00: And those are just like two of those last names that really stick with you.
- 18:36SPEAKER_00: And I think he's got kind of the same working class vibe, honestly.
- 18:39SPEAKER_00: Masterman doesn't wear a hoodie or gym shorts, but I think, you know, he's a mechanic.
- 18:45SPEAKER_00: And I think that kind of,
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 18:47SPEAKER_00: as corny as it is,
- 18:48SPEAKER_00: I think if I were him,
- 18:50SPEAKER_00: I'd almost consider knocking doors while carrying a wrench just for fun,
- 18:53SPEAKER_00: just to kind of build that persona and kind of make it fun and get people excited.
- 18:58SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 18:59SPEAKER_01: That's a great idea.
- 19:00SPEAKER_01: Even change his logo a little bit, make an outline with the ranch, and I'm here to fix things, right?
- 19:07SPEAKER_00: David loves my feedback on logos, so I will definitely make sure to send that to him.
- 19:11SPEAKER_00: I'm always giving him a hard time about his logos, so that'll be good.
- 19:15SPEAKER_00: Another Republican primary,
- 19:17SPEAKER_00: HD51,
- 19:19SPEAKER_00: Christine Drazen comes back to the legislature,
- 19:23SPEAKER_00: sends James Hebe packing.
- 19:25SPEAKER_00: I think I speak for a lot of people saying,
- 19:28SPEAKER_00: Really appreciate James.
- 19:29SPEAKER_00: He appreciate a lot of the stuff he tried to do,
- 19:32SPEAKER_00: especially when it came to,
- 19:33SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 19:34SPEAKER_00: his his troubled background,
- 19:36SPEAKER_00: his family's history of suicide and drug abuse and,
- 19:41SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 19:41SPEAKER_00: really hope the best for him.
- 19:44SPEAKER_00: But I think that voters were looking for someone a little bit more ready to take on
- 19:51SPEAKER_00: the legislative process in this particular primary.
- 19:55SPEAKER_00: And Drazen obviously had a big,
- 19:57SPEAKER_00: strong list,
- 19:59SPEAKER_00: did some decent fundraising and some numbers and had some name ID leftover that I'm
- 20:03SPEAKER_00: sure came in handy here in this primary as well.
- 20:06SPEAKER_00: You're running for governor and all that.
- 20:08SPEAKER_01: $20 million in name ID doesn't disappear overnight, but it does disappear.
- 20:14SPEAKER_01: It wasn't quite there yet, but I think Oregon Firearms was gone and heavy on James Heap here.
- 20:21SPEAKER_01: Apparently that worked out well for him.
- 20:23SPEAKER_01: I just think that that area of Clackamas County is kind of a growing area,
- 20:32SPEAKER_01: and I think there's a lot of people there that want to see
- 20:37SPEAKER_01: things still happen.
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of those folks were big supporters of Drazen when she was running for governor.
- 20:42SPEAKER_01: And I think nothing wrong with that.
- 20:43SPEAKER_01: I don't necessarily share the same insights that you do on James T.
- 20:48SPEAKER_01: But,
- 20:49SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 20:49SPEAKER_01: I don't I just think that Drazen will make a better state representative.
- 20:54SPEAKER_00: I'll leave that at that.
- 20:56SPEAKER_00: That is what I hear from from a lot of people.
- 20:59SPEAKER_00: And again, I don't think it's anything necessarily against him, but I think, you know, he struggled some.
- 21:04SPEAKER_00: And I think there's personal struggles that he'll have a chance to work on outside
- 21:08SPEAKER_00: of the limelight of politics.
- 21:10SPEAKER_00: And that that limelight is usually makes the issues worse.
- 21:13SPEAKER_00: It doesn't help you fix them.
- 21:14SPEAKER_00: Typically, this is what we see a lot of times.
- 21:18SPEAKER_00: So, well, now we head to the Senate.
- 21:22SPEAKER_00: And this is one of those places where, you know, we had a couple of these races go different direction.
- 21:28SPEAKER_00: But we'll start with the first district, David Brock Smith.
- 21:32SPEAKER_00: I think 56% is a good showing for David Brock Smith, especially with three opponents.
- 21:38SPEAKER_00: I think even if Todd Vaughn was the only guy running against him,
- 21:41SPEAKER_00: Brock Smith probably does 56% or better just because of...
- 21:46SPEAKER_00: The attacks really fell flat there and lacked believability.
- 21:51SPEAKER_00: Again,
- 21:51SPEAKER_00: I think they're calling him a communist Chinese stooge,
- 21:54SPEAKER_00: and that's just not the vibe you get from David Brock Smith.
- 21:57SPEAKER_00: Maybe there's another legislator out there really shilling for China,
- 22:00SPEAKER_00: but David Brock Smith's not one of them.
- 22:03SPEAKER_00: So he gets 56%.
- 22:04SPEAKER_00: Todd Vaughn comes in second, 29%.
- 22:06SPEAKER_00: Paul Romero, who didn't really campaign, got 8%.
- 22:10SPEAKER_00: And Ashley Hicks, 5%.
- 22:13SPEAKER_00: So that was, I think, what the conventional wisdom really suspected.
- 22:16SPEAKER_00: But Ben Edel didn't really have a good night there.
- 22:19SPEAKER_00: Won his own uncontested primary, but not this one.
- 22:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Ruck Pack's killing it.
- 22:28SPEAKER_00: All right.
- 22:29SPEAKER_00: And then we go to say Senate District two.
- 22:32SPEAKER_00: This one's a heartbreaker.
- 22:33SPEAKER_00: Brian, Christine Goodwin does not does not beat Noah Robinson.
- 22:38SPEAKER_00: That Robinson name seems to be pretty entrenched out there in southern Oregon.
- 22:44SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it sure does.
- 22:45SPEAKER_01: We spent a lot of money in this race.
- 22:48SPEAKER_01: Noah, to his credit, raised a decent amount of money.
- 22:51SPEAKER_01: I think he raised $130,000 or so.
- 22:52SPEAKER_01: He didn't roll over.
- 22:52SPEAKER_01: There's no doubt about it.
- 22:54SPEAKER_01: I think that
- 23:01SPEAKER_01: I think it's combination of the Robinson name and Josephine County and down in that
- 23:05SPEAKER_01: Southern area where they've been on the ballot all over the place.
- 23:08SPEAKER_01: And,
- 23:08SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 23:10SPEAKER_01: Goodwin,
- 23:10SPEAKER_01: I think had a lot of smoke around her residency where she was actually living and
- 23:15SPEAKER_01: they filed a lawsuit and then they dropped the lawsuit and she never got to win the
- 23:20SPEAKER_01: lawsuit in court.
- 23:21SPEAKER_01: So it kind of just hung out there and,
- 23:24SPEAKER_01: and there was a lot of,
- 23:25SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 23:26SPEAKER_01: so there were,
- 23:26SPEAKER_01: that created a lot of anti,
- 23:27SPEAKER_01: anti,
- 23:29SPEAKER_01: uh,
- 23:29SPEAKER_01: good one stuff that I think kind of,
- 23:31SPEAKER_01: kind of belt out of there,
- 23:32SPEAKER_01: gave him a reason to go pound pounder.
- 23:35SPEAKER_01: And, uh, it worked, you know, there's really not much you can do about it.
- 23:38SPEAKER_01: The biggest thing I'll say here is,
- 23:40SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 23:40SPEAKER_01: we had,
- 23:41SPEAKER_01: we pulled the race first part of may,
- 23:44SPEAKER_01: um,
- 23:45SPEAKER_01: some other people pulled the race as well,
- 23:48SPEAKER_01: and it didn't show this,
- 23:50SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 23:50SPEAKER_01: showed a very tight race.
- 23:52SPEAKER_01: So, uh, I don't know if they pulled the wrong people.
- 23:57SPEAKER_01: or maybe they weren't intentional.
- 23:59SPEAKER_01: I'm not sure.
- 24:00SPEAKER_01: I think Robinson's put up a lot of signs, I'll tell you.
- 24:05SPEAKER_01: I went down there one time and
- 24:08SPEAKER_01: Um,
- 24:08SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 24:08SPEAKER_01: they own a sign making company,
- 24:10SPEAKER_01: so their ability to put up signs is,
- 24:13SPEAKER_01: uh,
- 24:13SPEAKER_01: insanely,
- 24:14SPEAKER_01: uh,
- 24:15SPEAKER_01: practical.
- 24:16SPEAKER_01: That's for sure.
- 24:16SPEAKER_01: They can do it.
- 24:17SPEAKER_01: They can just print, print, print, print, print.
- 24:19SPEAKER_01: And that doesn't come out into that, that $130,000 in cash, right?
- 24:23SPEAKER_01: That, that they, I don't even see even many in kinds at all from bridge view press to his pack.
- 24:30SPEAKER_01: So who knows how much of that, uh,
- 24:33SPEAKER_01: you never even got accounted for.
- 24:35SPEAKER_01: So I don't know what a sign on every street corner is worth, but it's worth something.
- 24:40SPEAKER_01: That's for sure.
- 24:40SPEAKER_01: So props to Robinson for winning.
- 24:44SPEAKER_01: It's kind of all I got to say on that one.
- 24:45SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 24:46SPEAKER_01: I think that it's a Christine's a friend and we tried doing everything we could
- 24:50SPEAKER_01: there to help get her over the top.
- 24:52SPEAKER_01: But there was no crack in that nut.
- 24:54SPEAKER_01: That's the reality of it.
- 24:57SPEAKER_01: The polling, you know, told us differently, but the polling was wrong.
- 25:02SPEAKER_01: And we've never heard that before.
- 25:06SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think also these primaries, the undecideds can break late and they can break hard.
- 25:12SPEAKER_00: I think that's also, we've seen that.
- 25:14SPEAKER_00: That is a true thing.
- 25:15SPEAKER_00: And I had that happen on a local levy here where the polling,
- 25:19SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 25:20SPEAKER_00: said one thing and the outcome said a totally different thing.
- 25:22SPEAKER_00: So I hear that.
- 25:24SPEAKER_00: Senate District 28, I think Linthicum, Diane Linthicum, 59%, pretty solid showing.
- 25:32SPEAKER_00: really another place for that name ID is pretty well established.
- 25:36SPEAKER_00: You know, Dave Hensley gave it a good shot.
- 25:38SPEAKER_00: I got 40% of the vote, but that wasn't, wasn't as much of a high spending affair.
- 25:45SPEAKER_00: And I think Hensley probably needed some more money,
- 25:48SPEAKER_00: a good chunk more money to really drive home and make that one super competitive
- 25:52SPEAKER_00: would be my guess without not knowing a lot about what happened on the ground there,
- 25:57SPEAKER_00: but.
- 25:57SPEAKER_00: Diane Linthicum will succeed her husband there in Senate District 28 and increase
- 26:04SPEAKER_00: the number of women in the Senate Republican caucus again.
- 26:09SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that's true.
- 26:09SPEAKER_01: I guess,
- 26:11SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 26:11SPEAKER_01: I think also if you look at your ballot,
- 26:13SPEAKER_01: right,
- 26:14SPEAKER_01: you're going to you're going to vote for Dennis Linthicum.
- 26:16SPEAKER_01: And then it literally could be the next name is state Senate 28 and you're voting for Diane Linthicum.
- 26:22SPEAKER_01: So, yeah.
- 26:24SPEAKER_01: I think that that was probably a big piece of that, that institutional name ID.
- 26:28SPEAKER_01: I think also,
- 26:29SPEAKER_01: too,
- 26:29SPEAKER_01: Reagan,
- 26:30SPEAKER_01: we don't really give ourselves,
- 26:31SPEAKER_01: because we're never good at giving ourselves credit,
- 26:35SPEAKER_01: so let's give ourselves some more credit.
- 26:37SPEAKER_01: We branded Oregon's 13 and the walkout so well.
- 26:41SPEAKER_01: that the Lithicum name and the Robinson name became folk heroes, you know, in these communities.
- 26:46SPEAKER_01: So,
- 26:47SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 26:47SPEAKER_01: we almost were too good doing the PR work we did when the Senate Republicans walked
- 26:53SPEAKER_01: out and we were both in the caucus office,
- 26:56SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 26:57SPEAKER_01: doing PR.
- 26:57SPEAKER_01: So yeah, maybe we take our hat off for that one.
- 27:00SPEAKER_01: I don't know, but, uh,
- 27:03SPEAKER_01: Dennis and Diane have been around a long time in those areas down there.
- 27:06SPEAKER_01: Names went on about a lot.
- 27:07SPEAKER_01: It's pretty tough to overcome without having a lot of money.
- 27:11SPEAKER_01: Also, too, the percentage of...
- 27:14SPEAKER_01: voter score was similar to Senate District 2.
- 27:18SPEAKER_01: So I do think you have,
- 27:20SPEAKER_01: of the people who turned out,
- 27:21SPEAKER_01: you do really have what I talked about in that news article that we led the show
- 27:25SPEAKER_01: off with is this kind of more obstructionist version of a Republican to a more
- 27:32SPEAKER_01: right-leaning Republican,
- 27:35SPEAKER_01: but not necessarily in an obstructionist mentality of just vote no,
- 27:40SPEAKER_01: no matter what.
- 27:41SPEAKER_01: you know, we don't care about, you know, money in our district.
- 27:44SPEAKER_01: We don't care about better roads.
- 27:45SPEAKER_01: We don't care about sewers, water, all that sort of stuff.
- 27:48SPEAKER_01: We just want you to vote.
- 27:49SPEAKER_01: No.
- 27:49SPEAKER_01: So there's just a certain group of those.
- 27:52SPEAKER_01: And I would imagine it's not all 60% that voted for Diane, but it,
- 27:56SPEAKER_01: Of those people that are in that mentality,
- 27:59SPEAKER_01: they're definitely going towards a Diane Lithgow versus a Dave Hensley because I
- 28:04SPEAKER_01: watched one of their debates and you could clearly see that there was two distinct,
- 28:10SPEAKER_01: even though politically they probably are the same person,
- 28:13SPEAKER_01: they align politically.
- 28:14SPEAKER_01: And I'd say Christine and Noah are the same, right?
- 28:16SPEAKER_01: They probably align the same.
- 28:18SPEAKER_01: It's just how they go about legislating in Salem, I think, is really the chasm that the two have.
- 28:25SPEAKER_01: races had in common, I think.
- 28:27SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
- 28:29SPEAKER_00: Makes sense to me, Brian.
- 28:30SPEAKER_00: And then finally, we rounded out here in the legislature, State Senate District 29.
- 28:36SPEAKER_00: I think this one caught people by surprise, not because Todd Nash was
- 28:40SPEAKER_00: the winner.
- 28:41SPEAKER_00: He again locked up that Oregon Rights to Life endorsement.
- 28:44SPEAKER_00: He had the Oregon Firearms Federation endorsement until they unendorsed him.
- 28:48SPEAKER_00: His stance on the Second Amendment in that time, this campaign, didn't change that I'm aware of.
- 28:52SPEAKER_00: So I'm interested to get into that at some point.
- 28:55SPEAKER_00: But for some reason, they withdrew that endorsement.
- 28:58SPEAKER_00: But I think
- 28:59SPEAKER_00: You know, by the time they got through the primary, it was like, what was the point of withdrawing it?
- 29:03SPEAKER_00: And then he had like timber union stuff.
- 29:05SPEAKER_00: And those are all sole endorsements.
- 29:07SPEAKER_00: I think that gave him an edge on the conservative front to lock in the conservative voters.
- 29:12SPEAKER_00: But he still had a really good reputation of being somebody that worked with other people.
- 29:17SPEAKER_00: And that's what prevented Drotsman and Doherty really, I think, from getting involved.
- 29:21SPEAKER_00: a strong foothold, either one of them.
- 29:23SPEAKER_00: And the race in the other,
- 29:24SPEAKER_00: they both kind of cut into each other's bases on the western half of that district.
- 29:30SPEAKER_00: The shocking part to me was Drotsman coming in third at something I wasn't
- 29:34SPEAKER_00: necessarily predicting looking at that race.
- 29:36SPEAKER_00: Nash and Drotsman were really the kind of early spenders,
- 29:39SPEAKER_00: but Doherty poured on the late money,
- 29:42SPEAKER_00: had some stumbles,
- 29:43SPEAKER_00: ran into some political and real fences.
- 29:47SPEAKER_00: I think that created a little bit of a challenge for him.
- 29:50SPEAKER_00: when he had a chance to pick up that momentum.
- 29:53SPEAKER_00: And so Nash kind of wins in a very convincing manner there with 53%.
- 29:58SPEAKER_01: Well, my, my take is besides your fun Doherty comment, I think definitely two takes on this one.
- 30:07SPEAKER_01: I think we didn't see Doherty coming in second.
- 30:09SPEAKER_01: I think that's a pretty interesting must.
- 30:13SPEAKER_01: I don't know that area as well.
- 30:15SPEAKER_01: I haven't spent, you know,
- 30:17SPEAKER_01: gobs amount of time up there,
- 30:19SPEAKER_01: so I didn't know that he had a lot of institutional coming from Sherman County.
- 30:22SPEAKER_01: It's a pretty small county.
- 30:24SPEAKER_01: But really, what Senator Hansel told us rang true.
- 30:28SPEAKER_01: Looking at the county results, I mean, they were pretty evenly spread until you got the Union County.
- 30:35SPEAKER_01: You get to the east side of the Blue Mountains, Todd Nash won 73% of the vote in Union County.
- 30:41SPEAKER_01: And then in Wallowa County, where he's from, 81% of the vote.
- 30:46SPEAKER_01: So his margins and the gross numbers there truly made the difference.
- 30:51SPEAKER_01: Those folks on the east side of the Blue Mountains were not voting for somebody on
- 30:56SPEAKER_01: the west side of the Blue Mountains.
- 30:57SPEAKER_01: And that's clearly a geographical block of voters that Nash put in his pocket and they weren't moving.
- 31:04SPEAKER_01: So I think that that's just looking at the county by county numbers.
- 31:09SPEAKER_01: it was very clear that the number – and he even won Umatilla, but by a very small margin, Todd Nash.
- 31:15SPEAKER_01: So I think that, you know, good race for him.
- 31:18SPEAKER_01: I think he's a likable guy.
- 31:20SPEAKER_01: I think there's a lot of that that kind of comes along with it, but he had enough institutional support.
- 31:26SPEAKER_01: But I really think that he overcame any sort of –
- 31:31SPEAKER_01: challenged by being the only one on the east side of the Blue Mountains,
- 31:34SPEAKER_01: that made a difference because he really locked up that vote.
- 31:36SPEAKER_00: And there was really not,
- 31:37SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 31:38SPEAKER_00: I couldn't find anything that was really negative that people were saying about him.
- 31:42SPEAKER_00: And I think when you have a candidate, I think he's one of those unique ones that are just like,
- 31:46SPEAKER_00: so well liked overall generally that you just can't how are you going to oppose him
- 31:52SPEAKER_00: what are you going to say about him he's too nice like I just think like that at
- 31:56SPEAKER_00: that point that could be the only thing that you've got and I think there's just
- 32:00SPEAKER_00: there weren't a lot of negatives there Drotsman and Doherty both had political
- 32:04SPEAKER_00: histories you know Drotsman at the city and it's really hard to be working for a
- 32:08SPEAKER_00: city and not say you need more property tax or other kind of revenue and so I think
- 32:13SPEAKER_00: that really hurt him and then
- 32:14SPEAKER_00: you know, Doherty, you know, fighting out his recall and other stuff.
- 32:18SPEAKER_00: I think it just made it so that Nash was kind of the obvious choice for a lot of people.
- 32:22SPEAKER_00: And I agree.
- 32:22SPEAKER_00: I love Todd Nash.
- 32:23SPEAKER_00: I got to meet him.
- 32:24SPEAKER_00: I was on the Oregon rights to life pack board that endorsed him.
- 32:28SPEAKER_00: I think it's going to be great for that area.
- 32:30SPEAKER_00: Really excited to see him win that race.
- 32:34SPEAKER_00: Any closing thoughts, Brian?
- 32:36SPEAKER_00: We're getting a little long in the tooth here.
- 32:37SPEAKER_00: So I think we're going to do a part two because there's a lot of local races to break down.
- 32:41SPEAKER_00: And so we'll probably do at least another hour on those.
- 32:45SPEAKER_00: I think even just the Multnomah Clackamas and talking about those, there's a ton to talk about there.
- 32:51SPEAKER_00: So we're going to save everybody's ears and do that another time.
- 32:54SPEAKER_01: I agree.
- 32:55SPEAKER_01: I think there was some interesting stuff that happened on the local side,
- 32:59SPEAKER_01: some unintended consequences of some of those things that we can kind of dive into.
- 33:04SPEAKER_01: and then kind of start previewing the fall as we get to it.
- 33:07SPEAKER_01: But I think with the legislative stuff,
- 33:09SPEAKER_01: I think the key is,
- 33:11SPEAKER_01: is to remember that we are as Republicans arguing underneath the same tent,
- 33:19SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 33:20SPEAKER_01: and out of this,
- 33:20SPEAKER_01: we gotta,
- 33:21SPEAKER_01: we gotta go forward.
- 33:22SPEAKER_01: And hence forward, I think that, you know, the Republican house Republican caucus lost, you know, two,
- 33:31SPEAKER_01: two of their incumbents were taken out, basically.
- 33:37SPEAKER_01: And that's pretty interesting.
- 33:40SPEAKER_01: And I think the Senate Republican,
- 33:41SPEAKER_01: we knew there was going to be a lot of primaries because of the walkout.
- 33:45SPEAKER_01: And that creates usually some fighting.
- 33:49SPEAKER_01: And they're usually a little more intense on the Senate side,
- 33:52SPEAKER_01: just because you're fighting for a four-year seat instead of a two-year seat.
- 33:56SPEAKER_01: So I think sometimes that creates the ratchets up the intensity a little bit.
- 34:01SPEAKER_01: But, you know, it is what it is.
- 34:03SPEAKER_01: Like you're going to have battles within primaries and you move on.
- 34:06SPEAKER_01: I think there are some hurt feelings probably out there on some of these.
- 34:09SPEAKER_01: But it's no different than I think DeSantis is probably still pissed at Trump.
- 34:14SPEAKER_01: that he lost the lost to primary to him and couldn't,
- 34:17SPEAKER_01: couldn't go on and become the presidential nominee,
- 34:20SPEAKER_01: but it doesn't mean that he's not going to support Donald Trump and the general,
- 34:24SPEAKER_01: you know?
- 34:24SPEAKER_01: So in the same thing with the Democrats,
- 34:26SPEAKER_01: I'm sure there was,
- 34:28SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 34:28SPEAKER_01: I'm sure Doyle cannons pissed at,
- 34:30SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 34:30SPEAKER_01: Fraggle up,
- 34:31SPEAKER_01: but it's not like she's going to become a Republican.
- 34:34SPEAKER_01: And I think we just have to remember that when we talk about these primaries,
- 34:37SPEAKER_01: that there are primaries within your own house that,
- 34:41SPEAKER_01: you're having an argument, you're going to beat each other up a little bit, and then you move on, right?
- 34:45SPEAKER_01: But it's, and I would just say, have a very, very, was it wake up with amnesia, as they say, and move on.
- 34:55SPEAKER_01: You know,
- 34:56SPEAKER_01: I have a few campaign managers that I've had to,
- 34:59SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 34:59SPEAKER_01: talk off the ledge with some stuff and just say,
- 35:02SPEAKER_01: Well,
- 35:04SPEAKER_01: you can't win every time you got to just,
- 35:06SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 35:06SPEAKER_01: you take your wins,
- 35:07SPEAKER_01: you take your losses and you get up and you move forward,
- 35:10SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 35:10SPEAKER_01: and that's just the reality of it.
- 35:11SPEAKER_01: So I wish everybody.
- 35:13SPEAKER_01: It's a good point.
- 35:15SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 35:16SPEAKER_00: It's a good point, Brian.
- 35:17SPEAKER_00: I saw.
- 35:17SPEAKER_00: democrats on twitter talking about maxine dexter that like she's bought by
- 35:22SPEAKER_00: republican israel money and i was like that doesn't mean she's gonna start voting
- 35:25SPEAKER_00: the republican line like people take that stuff way too far you know she's gonna be
- 35:30SPEAKER_00: a reliable progressive vote trust me on this one she's gonna have a 99 with biden
- 35:37SPEAKER_00: you know 99 with nancy pelosi but the record like that is a give it here
- 35:42SPEAKER_00: And I think, you know, people really blow that stuff out of proportion.
- 35:46SPEAKER_00: The problem is,
- 35:47SPEAKER_00: is that they're so far on the edge of their party that they think everybody,
- 35:50SPEAKER_00: anybody in the middle of their party is a right wing extremist.
- 35:53SPEAKER_00: And that's like the problem.
- 35:54SPEAKER_00: This is like if you're pro Israel,
- 35:55SPEAKER_00: that's like still the majority opinion in the Democratic Party and in America.
- 36:00SPEAKER_00: And they're just, you know, way on the outside there.
- 36:03SPEAKER_00: Well, thanks, Brian, for your insights.
- 36:06SPEAKER_00: It's always great to have you bring your perspective because you've got a lot of
- 36:11SPEAKER_00: knowledge about these races.
- 36:13SPEAKER_00: You ran the House Republican races two years ago,
- 36:16SPEAKER_00: so you know a lot of these districts and how they behave and a lot of these candidates.
- 36:19SPEAKER_00: And so it's great to have your input.
- 36:22SPEAKER_00: Looking forward to discussing these local races with you here next time.
- 36:27SPEAKER_00: We'll try to get those out quickly so that people can get their fix after the election.
- 36:33SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 36:34SPEAKER_01: Good to speak with you, Reagan.
- 36:35SPEAKER_01: It's always fun having a millennial co-host.
- 36:40SPEAKER_01: So I appreciate that, especially with babies at home.
- 36:42SPEAKER_01: It's fun.
- 36:43SPEAKER_01: I appreciate you and the insight you bring me.
- 36:46SPEAKER_01: So I don't want to be old, crudgy, you know, consultant that loses his edge.
- 36:52SPEAKER_01: So you keep me going.
- 36:56SPEAKER_01: Talk to you soon.
- 36:56SPEAKER_01: You're welcome, Brian.
- 36:57SPEAKER_00: Thanks, everybody.