Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 381 - 10/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 381 - 10/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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  Hello and welcome to Episode. 381 of the all systems.
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  Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm I'm your.
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  Host Josh. Applebaum What's going on,
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  everyone? Happy Friday, our work.
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  Week has come to an end, but we got a lot to get to on today's.
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  Podcast before. We steam into the weekend.
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  I do have a three pack of sweats for you.
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  Yeah, that's right. We're getting a little crazy.
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  On a Friday night here. And see if we can.
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  Kind of go. Back to our baseball days,
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  remember? We had those. 3 packs and the
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  goal. Was always to go 2 and one each
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  got a winning night. Well, same sort of thing here,
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  but. Kind of the beauty of.
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  When you're betting on spread. And total sports like football.
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  And basketball instead of money line.
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  Sports like baseball. Or hockey, for that matter.
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  If you can, go 2 and. One you're going to get.
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  A little bit more of a payout here because.
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  You're getting around -110 juice instead of, you know. 3
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  Baseball. Favorites that are -120 -, 140,
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  and -180 you're going to. Still have a winning night.
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  You go 2 and. One, but you're going to.
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  Get a little bit less. Back.
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  Because you're paying more juice on those baseball money line,
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  so. I do have two college football
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  games. For you tonight 1.
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  Is a side with a really really good steam move as well as a
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  really good rhythm juice reel sharp.
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  Mush and Green Star recommended. Edge also have a play.
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  On a total with a. Huge.
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  Rhythm discrepancy is about. Five points, almost 6 points.
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  Off of what the current number is.
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  And then one play in the NBA. And we've been having some.
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  Decent success, knock on wood. Two and O so far.
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  Whether NBA plays I mentioned this.
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  Earlier but. I lean a lot more.
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  Toward totals basically, instead of sides.
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  To me, sides are very tough to win and now we're, you know,
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  seeing all these, you know, gambling scandal.
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  Situations where? You know Chauncey Billups.
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  Fouls to kill your plus. 8 with like 2 seconds left, so I'm not
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  saying that that's the reason. Why I layoff sides?
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  But to me, I've had some pretty good system matches on these
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  totals and I've been more of a total better in the NBA.
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  So I do have one. Total going to play another over
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  here. See if we can get a GET.
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  A winner here with a. Lot of really good.
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  System matches. So 3 pack overall, 2 college
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  football. One NBA and then.
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  Because it's a. Friday we got to.
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  Reiterate and remind everyone of our full.
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  Card for this. Upcoming betting weekend so. 3.
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  College basketball or sorry, 3 college football plays as well
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  as three NFL plays so. We're going to see.
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  If we can, hopefully. Get some winners here.
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  Going into the weekend. Now looking back to our last
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  night. Guys, man, talk about a
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  disgusting, pathetic, no show performance by the Minnesota
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  Vikings. Got the plus 3 1/2.
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  Felt decent about it because. Again, you saw that juice creep
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  back toward Minnesota Plus. 3 1/2. -1. 15 -, 120.
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  A lot of books closed at 3:00. And I thought we were off to a
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  really good start because. I turn on the game, I get my
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  Amazon Prime going and I thought.
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  The cornerback for the Minnesota Vikings intercepted Justin
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  Herbert brought it back for. A touchdown boomer up 7 Nothing
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  so as that happens. I leave the room.
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  To let my dog. Out because she was.
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  Barking, she want to go outside. When I come back in I don't see
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  a 7. Nothing.
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  Score. I see a 00 score.
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  So I'm like what? The heck happened there?
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  So apparently. Ball hit the ground, he.
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  Bottled it, Who knows, but it was pretty much all downhill
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  from there. Because Carson Wentz, man.
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  I think you might. You might just.
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  You should just. Retire again, I I respect the
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  grind. You're still in the NFL, you're
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  making money, but man, what a pathetic performance.
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  Carson Wentz I I went in with saying.
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  Don't turn it over and. Carson Wentz.
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  Don't be the reason we lose this game.
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  Well, that's pretty much exactly what happened.
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  So sometimes it's going to happen.
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  You bet a dog 3 1/2 they get blown out by 27.
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  So really, really disgusting. Spread bet there with the.
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  Vikings who let us down Bigley last night, but I'd.
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  Also say really tough. Game there for that under
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  because. Al Michaels, who you can always
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  rely on who knows the spread in the total for every game that
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  he. Announces that game was sitting.
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  At 44. It was 34 to 10 late in the
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  game. And a meaningless.
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  Field goal pushed the over. And went over 40.
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  Four and a half 40. 5 So imagine if you had that under.
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  I don't know what's worse, getting blown out with Minnesota
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  or having the under pretty much the whole time, losing at the
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  very end. So either way, guys, sometimes
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  it's going to happen. Minnesota let us down.
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  And see if we can bounce back here for tonight.
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  Now looking at a couple college football games for this Friday
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  night. We got some Friday nights,
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  Friday Night Lights, matchups across the gridiron.
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  And I want to start with. Cal and Virginia Tech.
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  Now this one is interesting because it is the most heavily
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  bet game of the night. And it's got a.
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  Really intriguing line move. As well as a data.
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  Driven Edge from our friends at Rhythm.
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  So setting a stage. For this one. 7:30 Tonight we
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  have. Cal coming in five and. 2 They
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  just held off north. Carolina 21 to 18.
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  Did not cover though as a 7 1/2 point home favorite.
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  Can you believe it, Belichick? And my buddy Lombardi finally
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  covered a number. But you'll get VAA Tech 2 and
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  five. They fired their head coach a
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  few weeks ago. They just got rolled by JAA Tech
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  30. 5 to 20 did not cover as a 14 point Rd. dog so.
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  What have you seen across the market here?
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  Well, this game open Virginia Tech.
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  Around a. 4 1/2 point home favorite.
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  And right off the bat, public doesn't know what to do because
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  Cal's got a far better record, but Virginia Tech?
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  Kind of known as a powerhouse. And they're at home.
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  It's Friday night. You always hear.
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  About the Enter Sandman and. You know that stadium.
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  Goes goes nuts for these games. So Publix down the middle. 50%
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  of. Tickets are taking the points.
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  With Cal. 50% of bets are. Taking the points.
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  With Vitek, however, what do we always talk about when we're
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  looking at a 5050 bet split, theoretically?
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  In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all.
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  There should be no reason. For the odds makers to bring the
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  line up or down because again, tickets are split right?
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  But remember, there's a difference.
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  Between tickets and money, so even though you're getting. 50%
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  on both. Sides of the ticket.
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  The raw ticket counted DraftKings 66% of bets are on
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  Virginia Tech, and we've seen Virginia Tech creep up from -4.
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  1/2 all the way now up to -6. And as I'm recording this part,
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  I'm seeing some. Books creep up to minus. 6 1/2
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  so. That right there told me we have
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  a. 5050 line move again. 5050 line shouldn't.
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  Move it all but it's. Steaming toward the Hokies.
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  Low bets. Higher dollars at DraftKings
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  Half. The ticket 66.
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  Percent of money at Circa Only 38% of bets, but 50.
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  Percent of dollars on the. Hokies, so both DK.
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  And circle. With a good split, Vatech is
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  also a very just fishy play. Why is Virginia?
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  Tech who's 2 and. Five favorite over Cal, who's
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  5:00 and 2:00. Again, the old me, the young me.
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  The young strapping young. Sports better when I was in my.
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  Early 20s would say Cal all day. But you've learned over time.
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  To embrace fishy. Lines that don't make sense.
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  And that tells me that it's a good.
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  Opportunity to buy low on. Vatech sell high on California.
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  So we do have that fishy buy low value as a sub. 500 team.
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  Who's lost two straight? Against a sell high above 500.
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  Team coming off a win. You also look at the.
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  Hokies with the rest advantage. They were off last week so
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  they're coming off a bye week. Cal played UNC.
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  And now they have to travel on a short week across the country,
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  so that's kind of a tough spot for the Golden Bears.
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  Lastly, we look at our. Friends at Rhythm.
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  And this is what gave me some confidence to lay the points
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  with. Vatech Rhythm has 2 Green Star
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  recommended plays. 1. Is vatech -9 point. 4 The other
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  one is via. Tech -9.5.
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  So if I can. Marry the betting market 50. 50
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  line move low bets. Higher dollars, rest first.
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  Tired. Advantage plus rhythm.
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  Is telling me it should be about a. 9 1/2 point game.
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  That's a pretty good edge. There there's also A5.
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  Percent sharp mush edge on Via Tech from our friends at Juice
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  Rail. So add it all up here.
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  Guys, I'm going to late with Virginia.
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  Tech. They look pretty sharp based on
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  the betting market. And how it's moved and we got a
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  great. Rhythm edge.
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  So I got -6 at -1. 10 at Fanatics again, shop around.
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  Because a lot of books are -6. -115 minus. 120 and a lot.
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  Of other books are. Actually now going to minus. 6
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  1/2 so. The six is important.
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  Because if they win by 6, we want at least.
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  Push that bet. And get our money back.
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  You lay a 6 1/2. They win by 6.
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  You. Lose so hopefully it doesn't
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  matter. Hopefully vot tech rolls.
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  Wins by 7 or more. But I played the Hokies. -6 -,
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  110. At.
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  Fanatics, next one for you, Boise State and Nevada.
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  This one looks pretty lopsided. It's a late.
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  Night Game 10. O'clock for me.
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  On the east. Coast on CBS Sports Network.
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  And it looks like it might be a blowout for Boise State.
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  However, setting the stage here, Boise State five and two just
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  took. Down UNLV. 56 to 31.
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  Covered as a. 13 point home favorite Nevada. 1:00 and 6:00.
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  Just came up short against New Mexico. 24 to 22.
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  But they did. Cover as a 13.
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  And a half point Rd. Dog.
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  So what are we seeing across the market Well.
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  I kind of said not so. Fast with the spread because I
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  didn't play the spread my plays. On the total, I'll tell you that
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  my play here in a. Second, but the public says
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  Boise State. 'S going to crush them.
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  Right now you are getting across the board 66.
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  Percent of spread bets laying. Boise State.
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  Boise State. Open -21 1/2 but a lot of books
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  are down to 21. So why is the line?
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  Dipping a little bit toward. Nevada when 2/3 of bets are
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  taking Boise State. So that tells me you do have a
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  contrarian. Reverse line move on Nevada if
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  you tell me like Nevada and you. Can still get the hook. 21 1/2
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  I'm not going to argue with you. But what I do like here in my
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  official bet is the over. Now, I will fully admit this
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  isn't a huge data-driven play for me.
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  But it's a really good. Edge with rhythm.
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  So in terms of the. Total, it opened around 50. 1.
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  51 1/2 it's pretty much stayed right around 51.
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  But I took the over. 50 1/2. And again, you got to get that
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  over 50 1/2 at. FanDuel -115.
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  Because some books are at. 51 or 51 1/2.
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  But I am really just trying to take advantage of a really good.
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  Rhythm Green star recommended play.
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  Because I have 2 green. Star Rhythm recommendations on
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  the over and listen to this. The first one has a total.
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  Points of 50. 5.5. The second one is 50. 5.9 So
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  fully admit. It's not like this is a huge
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  steam move to the over. It's not like this is a huge low
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  bets higher dollars to the over. But if you can get.
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  That 50 1/2. Over at FanDuel and Rhythm.
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  Is telling us that it should. Be closer to 56.
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  Like your rhythm says, it should be 5152.
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  I might not. Maybe I don't play it.
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  Because it's not as big of a. Discrepancy, but 2 green stars
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  predicted final total of around 50. 6 and that is.
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  Basically a six point edge. 5 1/2 five point edge.
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  Off the current price. So I did play that.
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  Over 50 1/2. Boise, Nevada.
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  In addition. If you pop open juice.
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  Reel There's a 14% sharp mush edge on the over.
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  So it tells me the. Wise guys who have downloaded
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  Juice Reel like you guys out there.
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  Listening who have synced up. Your books also going over.
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  And if you look. At some of the angles here, one
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  I like is. The Mountain West overs when
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  there's two teams from the Mountain West to.
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  Play each other. The over in these conference.
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  Games it's. 12:00 and 7:00 this year, 63%. 20% ROI and Boise.
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  They averaged nearly 30. Five points per game, they.
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  Scored. 40 or more in four. Of their last five.
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  And they're actually giving up 20. 8.2 points.
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  Per game, that ranks 80. 3rd in college football.
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  Nevada's giving up 29.8 points per game.
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  That ranks 90. 6th in college football, so Boise State can
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  definitely score. But both teams, they're giving
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  up, you know, close to 30 points per.
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  Game and we got great football weather in Nevada it's.
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  Going to be about 60. Degrees really mild Winds 4.
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  Or five mph. Mostly cloudy skies.
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  But to me. This is really.
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  A rhythm, sharp mush play. Again, you can get over. 50 1/2
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  right now and rhythm is predicting closer to. 56 So I
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  did play that Boise Nevada over. 50 1/2.
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  At what did I say? At FanDuel, over 50 1/2.
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  At -115 now. An NBA play for you?
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  Let's look at an NBA game here for tonight.
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  I'm just pull it up on my. My odds logic live odds.
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  Page it is A8. 30 PM Tip off. Between the Washington.
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  Wizards and the Dallas. Mavericks now.
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  If we look at the side here, so again, it's so early in the
• 12:18
  season, Dallas is O and one. They lost to the Spurs and win.
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  Banyama 1/25/92 in their opener. You'll get the Wizards also O.
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  And one they lost. To Milwaukee one. 33 to 120.
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  So both teams looking for. Their first win line did.
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  Dip a little bit toward. The Wizards, they open like -10
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  they're down to 9 1/2 at some shops.
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  Some. Shops even open like -11.
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  But I'm going to play this. Over I'm looking for some.
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  Points in this one guys. So first thing I notice.
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  Is that? This total is ticking up.
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  It open at 2:27. It's now up to 227 1/2.
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  At Bet MGM. But a lot of other books are up
• 12:54
  to two. 28 1/2. So tells me you're.
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  Off the bat. Totals ticking up, so some smart
• 13:00
  money hit this over. Then we get to the bet splits,
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  DraftKings 72% bets. 82% dollars.
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  On the over, circa 43% bets. 60. Percent dollars on the over.
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  So the total. Has Risen, DraftKings and Circa.
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  Both have low bets, higher dollar splits to the over.
• 13:17
  And then I have a bunch of system matches on this over SO
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  non conference overs. Lack of familiarity, don't know
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  how to match. Up defensively, typically that
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  benefits. The offense non conference.
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  Overs are two. 44 and 2O. 355%. With a pretty good.
• 13:33
  Return on investment. Of let's see.
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  Almost 5% since. The start of last year, so
• 13:40
  that's a good angle. When the total ticks up at least
• 13:43
  1/2 point. Now this is kind of unbelievable
• 13:46
  because. Since the.
• 13:48
  Start of last year, total ticks up a half point.
• 13:50
  Take the over it's. 3:42 and 2:00. 6656.
• 13:55
  Percent with a 7% ROI, but. Get a load of this guys this
• 13:59
  year. Again, let's let's let's cash
• 14:01
  this 111 and one to the. Over so the total rise at least
• 14:04
  half point. These totals are flying over if.
• 14:07
  There is a non division. Over which the line?
• 14:10
  Stays the same or rises. The over is 7 and O.
• 14:13
  This year it's three O 4 and two 3556.
• 14:16
  Percent with an 8%. ROI.
• 14:18
  So we have. A ton of system matches.
• 14:20
  We got the total ticking up, we got low bets, higher dollars.
• 14:23
  DraftKings and circa and. If you pop open juice reel there
• 14:26
  is a big fat juicy. 22% sharp mush.
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  Edge on the over, so a lot of these sharp winning players like
• 14:35
  yourselves who have downloaded. Juice Reel are also.
• 14:38
  Playing that over and again. This is the.
• 14:40
  This is. The thing we always talk about
• 14:41
  but having. Multiple outs.
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  Trying to find the best. Price because you look across
• 14:45
  the board. Most of the market is 228 1/2.
• 14:48
  But bet MGM. Bet MGM is.
• 14:50
  Over 227 1/2 at. -115 I don't know how.
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  Long it's going to last, but I jumped on it.
• 14:55
  So I'm playing Wizards Mavs. Over 227 1/2. -115 at Bet MGM.
• 15:02
  Along with in college. The Boise, Nevada over. 50 1/2.
• 15:06
  At -115 at FanDuel and. Vatek -6. -110 at Fanatics,
• 15:11
  let's see if we can get. Two out of three.
• 15:13
  And finish up the week. On a hot note.
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  Now looking back. Or looking forward, I should
• 15:18
  say, toward the weekend. Big loaded card here for the
• 15:22
  college football slate. But these are plays we all.
• 15:25
  We already talked. About but I just kind of want to
• 15:27
  reiterate them first one that I played Ole Miss in Oklahoma.
• 15:32
  This is the most heavily. Bet Game of the weekend.
• 15:35
  And Ole Miss. Is I think ranked 8th.
• 15:37
  Oklahoma, I think is what? 12th, 13th, something like that.
• 15:41
  But this is a play that I'm really glad we talked about
• 15:43
  earlier in the week, because it was.
• 15:44
  Fishy from the start. Because if you look at the bet
• 15:48
  splits for. Oklahoma in this one, no one
• 15:51
  wants to play. Oklahoma, the public says you
• 15:53
  got two really good teams. Again, both, you know, top.
• 15:56
  Ranked teams or or highly ranked teams and.
• 15:59
  Public says there's no way. Ole Miss should be getting 5 1/2
• 16:03
  points, so right now you're getting 73%.
• 16:07
  Of tickets take an. Ole Miss in the.
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  Points. So that makes Ole Miss.
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  A very trendy dog. But here's the thing.
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  Even though. Everyone and their mother is
• 16:15
  playing Ole Miss. The line is ticked up.
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  Toward Oklahoma. Oklahoma Open.
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  Out a lot of shops. As low as minus. 4 1/2 minus. 5
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  Now they're up to. At most shops around -5 1/2.
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  And again, this is a play. That you talked about.
• 16:28
  Earlier I got Oklahoma -4 1/2. A little bit earlier this week,
• 16:33
  basically 5 1/2. Is is your number everywhere?
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  So if you didn't. Play it earlier and.
• 16:38
  Listen to it on the. Pod or you didn't you know get
• 16:40
  those all systems go best bet picks from juice rail 5 1/2
• 16:43
  would be your best price. I mean, let's.
• 16:45
  Hope that they win by. 5 or 6 or more I should say.
• 16:48
  But here is an. Automatic play for me.
• 16:51
  As they fade the trendy. Dog public all over.
• 16:53
  Ole Miss line moving toward Oklahoma.
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  Oklahoma, by the way. Is a 2 ranked teams take the
• 17:00
  home faith. System match on the spread, it's
• 17:03
  10 and seven against the spread this year, 59%, it's 60 percent,
• 17:07
  15% ROI since. 2016 and if you. Didn't hear this.
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  As I mentioned before, not. Only is it a fade?
• 17:15
  The trendy dog. Not only is the line moving
• 17:17
  toward Oklahoma despite the public on the Rebels, but.
• 17:20
  The rhythm recommended plays are both on Oklahoma and I have one
• 17:24
  Green Star plan Oklahoma minus. 8 point.
• 17:27
  Four and another 1 -, 8.7 so that's.
• 17:30
  A pretty good edge. Compared to the current price.
• 17:34
  So again I. Hope you got the. 4 1/2 earlier.
• 17:36
  In the week on Tuesday when we talked about it.
• 17:38
  But if not, you have an. Opportunity here to.
• 17:40
  Still get the -5 1/2. So let's.
• 17:43
  Go Sooners and one thing as I was talking about.
• 17:46
  On the rhythm rundown with my buddy.
• 17:48
  Cade last night, he liked Oklahoma, too.
• 17:50
  Is that they have a really good defense.
• 17:51
  I think they're only giving up like.
• 17:52
  I don't know 1012 points a game. Ole Miss has given up closer to,
• 17:55
  I think 2025, so maybe that's an advantage, hopefully Where
• 17:59
  Oklahoma? Can win by at least.
• 18:00
  Six or more for everybody, but I am on Sooners. -4 1/2 again -5.
• 18:05
  And a half is now your current price.
• 18:07
  Next bet for you, BYU and Iowa State.
• 18:10
  Give me Iowa State all day here guys.
• 18:12
  BYU is 7 and OBYU is ranked. Iowa State is five and two
• 18:17
  they've lost. Two in a row.
• 18:19
  They're unranked, however. We didn't open.
• 18:22
  BYU favorite and BYU becoming. More of a favorite.
• 18:25
  We actually opened with Iowa State favored and now Iowa
• 18:28
  State. Has become.
• 18:29
  More of a favorite, so this game opened Iowa State.
• 18:32
  Around I think it was -1 1/2 minus.
• 18:34
  Two public says the wrong team is favored.
• 18:38
  Right now, nearly 70% of tickets are going.
• 18:40
  BYU the trendy dog. But the line move.
• 18:42
  Further toward the cyclone cyclones.
• 18:44
  Are now up to -2 1/2. If you look at Iowa State right
• 18:47
  now. Only getting about 1/3 of
• 18:49
  tickets but 83% of the money on the spread of DraftKings.
• 18:54
  So really good split. There on Iowa State.
• 18:56
  Unranked home favors ranked opponent.
• 18:58
  There's a. System play that I love.
• 18:59
  Anytime it pops up, I went money line with Iowa State.
• 19:03
  I got them minus. 135 little bit.
• 19:05
  Earlier this week it. Looks like you can still.
• 19:07
  Get around -135 Some shops are closer to like minus. 140 -,
• 19:11
  145. But you do have.
• 19:14
  A rest advantage. Where Iowa State was off last
• 19:16
  week. And you're buying low.
• 19:17
  Off of two straight losses BYU played last week, they've had.
• 19:21
  These really tough. Games against conference
• 19:22
  opponents. So if we got.
• 19:24
  You know, took some momentum or steam out of them and then also.
• 19:28
  On the money line, I'm. Going to money line a short.
• 19:29
  Favorite. I'd hate to see Iowa State win
• 19:31
  by one or two you. Lose because you lay at. 2 1/2
• 19:34
  so again, money line price. Unranked home favors ranked
• 19:38
  opponent straight up on the money line.
• 19:40
  Since 2017 it is. 57 and 31. Straight up 65%, so 2/3 of the
• 19:47
  time this Iowa State spot. Wins.
• 19:49
  So give me the. Cyclones. 330 game on Saturday
• 19:52
  at -135 on the money line. Last one for you, Baylor and
• 19:58
  Cincinnati. Now this one is just a.
• 20:01
  Classic. You know, unpopular.
• 20:03
  Road dog sharp reverse line move.
• 20:05
  Because if you look at. The match up here, Cincinnati.
• 20:09
  Looks like the far better. Team Cincinnati Bearcats on the.
• 20:12
  Year they are 6 and. One the rank 21st.
• 20:15
  Baylor's four and three. They just lost the TCU.
• 20:18
  But Cincinnati opened this game. Around a 5:00-ish favorite at
• 20:23
  home and the. Public says this line is way too
• 20:25
  short. Cincinnati is the far better.
• 20:27
  Team late with Cincinnati, they're getting. 78%.
• 20:31
  Of spread bets. However, even though the public.
• 20:33
  'S on Cincinnati this line. Is dropping toward Baylor.
• 20:37
  Baylor went from +5 down to plus 4 1/2 and now I'm looking at the
• 20:42
  market a lot of. Books are down to 4.
• 20:44
  And some books are even down to 3 1/2.
• 20:46
  So again, the whole point of. The podcast is Tuesday's.
• 20:50
  We try to get good numbers early.
• 20:52
  I was able to get Baylor. Plus 4 1/2 at -110.
• 20:55
  Earlier this week, now last call for the hook because ESPN bet
• 20:59
  still has. Plus 4 1/2. -115.
• 21:02
  But every other book. Is down to 4 or 3 1/2.
• 21:05
  So ESPN. Bet is obviously your best.
• 21:07
  Price here. But anytime I can get a.
• 21:10
  Low bets, higher dollars like Baylor.
• 21:12
  'S only getting 22. Percent of bets but 58% of
• 21:14
  dollars. Unranked dog versus ranked.
• 21:16
  Opponent, I took the points here, so again you.
• 21:20
  Can still get. A 4 1/2 That's the number I got.
• 21:22
  ESPN bets. The last one there with.
• 21:23
  The hook, but at. Least you can at least.
• 21:26
  Get the hook at one book and it doesn't hurt that.
• 21:29
  Our friends at Rhythm. I believe have this closer.
• 21:31
  To a four point game. So a little bit of an edge there
• 21:34
  off of the hook. So Baylor.
• 21:37
  I got them plus 4 1/2. Oklahoma, I got a -, 4 1/2.
• 21:41
  And Iowa State. On the money line, let's see if
• 21:43
  we can get. Two out of those three.
• 21:45
  Now over to the NFL. Another big NFL week.
• 21:48
  And hopefully some of these teams you bet on.
• 21:50
  Don't show up like. Or not show up like Carson Wentz
• 21:53
  last night. Carson Wentz was just man, that
• 21:56
  I was I. Don't know what was worse.
• 21:57
  CJ Stroud. Or Carson Wentz.
• 21:59
  These last two games, that's been just disgusting.
• 22:02
  We got to stick. With the model, stick with the
• 22:03
  blueprint so. 1st. Bet for me this upcoming.
• 22:06
  Weekend Buffalo Bills. Carolina Panthers.
• 22:09
  I'm going Panthers in the points.
• 22:10
  Here guys. Public says Buffalo should
• 22:12
  easily. Roll Remember bills started off.
• 22:14
  Great. They've struggled a bit here,
• 22:16
  but they're coming off a buy and they should get right.
• 22:19
  And easily, you know, win by. Eight or more here.
• 22:20
  That's what the public is saying.
• 22:22
  So the bills are getting. 77%. Of spread bets at DraftKings.
• 22:26
  But the bills were sitting -7 1/2.
• 22:29
  And a lot of these books. Are down to 7.
• 22:31
  So why is this line? Dropping away from the.
• 22:33
  Bills if the public is pounding the bills.
• 22:37
  Tells me smart money here. Is leaning toward Carolina.
• 22:39
  Plus 7 1/2. So I did jump on the Panthers.
• 22:42
  Plus 7 1/2. If you look at circa.
• 22:46
  They are only getting about 19% of bets.
• 22:49
  But nearly 50. Percent of the dollars.
• 22:51
  And this would match with a big dog.
• 22:53
  System match those dogs getting 6 1/2 or more.
• 22:56
  They're covering nearly 60%. Of the time this year.
• 22:59
  Also, Josh Allen doesn't cover a lot of these.
• 23:01
  Numbers when he's. Favored by 7 or more on the road
• 23:03
  and. We don't know if it's going to
• 23:04
  be Andy. Dalton or Bryce Young, it looks.
• 23:07
  Like right now it's. Supposed to be Dalton.
• 23:09
  But we do know. That rhythm has a good edge on
• 23:12
  the Panthers. I have Panthers.
• 23:13
  Plus 6.8. From rhythm and you can.
• 23:16
  Still get a hook? On the 7 1/2 so.
• 23:18
  Again, a lot of these. Books are down to 7.
• 23:20
  But if you shop around. Let me just double check which
• 23:24
  number I. Got.
• 23:25
  I got. Plus 7 1/2. -115 that.
• 23:28
  Was a little bit earlier this. Week you can still get. 7 1/2.
• 23:31
  -120 at FanDuel and ESPN bet, but again, a.
• 23:34
  Lot of these books. Are down to 7.
• 23:35
  But I did take. Carolina Panthers.
• 23:37
  Plus 7 1/2. New Orleans.
• 23:40
  Saints, this is a classic. Divisional dog sharp play here.
• 23:44
  Tampa Bay Bucks again. Started off great, just got
• 23:47
  rolled by the. Lions on Monday night.
• 23:49
  But Tampa Bay Open. This game around -6 on the road
• 23:52
  at New Orleans and everyone and their mother.
• 23:55
  Is on Tampa Bay. Nearly 80% of tickets.
• 23:58
  However, Tampa Bay open. -6 guys, they're down.
• 24:01
  To 4 1/2. Some books are down to four, I
• 24:05
  see. One book, even down to. 3 1/2
• 24:07
  Why is this line falling toward the Saints if everybody and
• 24:10
  their mother. Is going with Tampa Bay.
• 24:12
  Tells me we have an opportunity to take that. 4 1/2 I jumped on
• 24:16
  the plus. 4 1/2 of the Saints. Earlier this week.
• 24:18
  You can still get. 4 1/2 - 112 at DraftKings. 4 1/2. -120 at
• 24:23
  FanDuel. But a lot.
• 24:24
  Of other books are down to 4. Or even 3 1/2.
• 24:27
  So pretty big line move. There in favor of New Orleans
• 24:29
  if. You look at the Saints at circa.
• 24:32
  Only 22%. Of bets but 89% of the money.
• 24:36
  You also have New Orleans as a divisional.
• 24:38
  Dog built in familiarity levels the playing field.
• 24:41
  Benefits the team getting. Points as well as Tampa Bay on a
• 24:44
  short. Week.
• 24:45
  So I took. The points there again.
• 24:47
  With the Saints and it. Doesn't hurt that our friends at
• 24:51
  Rhythm I have Saints plus 3.7 and Saints +2.
• 24:55
  Point. 7 So again you can. Still get the four and a half.
• 24:58
  I took Saints Plus 4 1/2. Now last one for you.
• 25:02
  Sunday Night Football. I've been waiting.
• 25:04
  All day for Sunday night. Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh
• 25:07
  Steelers. This is A to make it just short
• 25:10
  and sweet. A Tomlin dog.
• 25:12
  Game we don't like Mike. Tomlin as a.
• 25:14
  Favorite. He's below 500.
• 25:15
  Cover 8. But he has been great as a dog.
• 25:18
  If you look at this spot, we pretty much opened -3 Green Bay.
• 25:23
  Anytime I got up to 3 1/2, it came right back down to three
• 25:26
  now. I jumped on the.
• 25:27
  Hook with the plus 3 1/2 at -120 earlier this.
• 25:30
  Week mention it on the. Pod.
• 25:31
  I put it in the juicer. Lap.
• 25:33
  I'm looking now and there really aren't any 3 1/2's.
• 25:36
  Left and again that. Stinks if you missed the hook.
• 25:39
  And you might be. Saying to yourself, oh, I'll
• 25:41
  wait it out, maybe it'll come back well.
• 25:42
  Maybe it will. But I'm actually.
• 25:44
  Seeing the juice on the Steelers.
• 25:45
  Side. Plus 3 -, 1. 15 and even ESPN
• 25:49
  bet is down to 2 and a. Half so if anything.
• 25:52
  It looks like it's more likely. To go down to 2.
• 25:54
  And 1/2. Than it would.
• 25:55
  Go back up to 3 1/2. But I really like this spot
• 25:59
  toward the Steelers. At Circo, they're getting 50%
• 26:01
  bets, but 77% of the money. We have a dog off a loss.
• 26:05
  Versus opponent off a wind system, 56%.
• 26:07
  ATS this year. Prime time dogs.
• 26:10
  Even though you lost last night, they're still. 15 and 8.
• 26:12
  Against the spread 65% this year.
• 26:15
  Tomlin as a dog, 65% ATS covering the number
• 26:18
  historically. And you also.
• 26:20
  Have a rest first. Tired.
• 26:21
  Advantage, remember? Green Bay played in.
• 26:22
  Arizona last week. They're now playing their second
• 26:25
  straight Rd. game, Pittsburgh. They lost to the.
• 26:27
  The Bengals remember. We cashed to the Bengals a week
• 26:30
  ago yesterday. So Pittsburgh's kind of been off
• 26:32
  a little bit of a mini buy, but again.
• 26:35
  I would have loved for you guys to get the hook.
• 26:36
  I know a few, you got it. I don't know if you're going to
• 26:39
  get that hook again. It looks like 3 is your best
• 26:41
  price now. And our friends at Rhythm.
• 26:44
  Actually have. This might make you.
• 26:46
  Feel a little bit better, Steelers plus 2.3, Steelers plus
• 26:50
  1.4, so you can still get the three, but I would hope that a
• 26:54
  lot of you were able to get that hook because.
• 26:55
  That's what I did, jumped on Steelers.
• 26:57
  Plus 3 1/2. So, Steelers.
• 27:00
  Plus 3 1/2 Saints plus 4 1/2 Panthers plus. 7 1/2 those.
• 27:03
  Are the plays for me. For this weekend.
• 27:06
  So that about does it. For episode 380.
• 27:09
  One of the all. Systems go sports betting
• 27:11
  podcast powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 27:14
  where. We wrap things up and I always
• 27:15
  start first. By saying thank you.
• 27:17
  Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in and we got a
• 27:20
  lot going on. You got.
• 27:21
  Busy lives with you. You know, find a way to.
• 27:23
  Listen for 20 to 30. Minutes each pod.
• 27:25
  It really means the world to me. So if you wouldn't mind, could
• 27:27
  you please? Give this podcast a five star
• 27:30
  review on Spotify or iTunes. Click the follow.
• 27:33
  Button recommend the pod to. A friend help me grow this
• 27:36
  podcast which. Is really the ultimate goal
• 27:38
  help? Help better make smart bets with
• 27:40
  their head. And not their heart next.
• 27:43
  If you enjoy the style of sports.
• 27:44
  Betting data-driven. Sharp, contrarian.
• 27:46
  Line movement, split system matches, focusing on the
• 27:48
  numbers, the market, not what our gut instinct, our bias is
• 27:52
  telling us. If this style.
• 27:53
  Of betting has. Appealed to you you've.
• 27:55
  Kind of adopted this style. And, you know, beat some.
• 27:57
  Closing lines you're starting. To win at a higher.
• 27:59
  Rate. You're making sharp bets.
• 28:01
  Are you getting some closing line value?
• 28:02
  That's the case. And you want to learn.
• 28:04
  More about data-driven betting. Or maybe you have a friend who
• 28:07
  should. Again, maybe start betting.
• 28:09
  With their head and not. Their heart or.
• 28:11
  Want to learn more? About data-driven betting.
• 28:13
  I would love. For you to go to.
• 28:15
  Amazon.com. And make my day by.
• 28:17
  Buying my new book. It's called the NFL.
• 28:19
  Sharp betting Playbook I have another book called the
• 28:22
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting if you want to.
• 28:23
  Buy one or both. You'll make me happy and make my
• 28:26
  publishers happy. And when you?
• 28:27
  Bring the book to the sports book I'll.
• 28:29
  Sign him for. You I'll buy a beer.
• 28:31
  And we'll, we'll sweat some games together.
• 28:33
  Next, have you downloaded? Rhythm and juice reel yet?
• 28:36
  Rhythm Great for their AI backed models and predictions for game
• 28:38
  bets. And player props.
• 28:40
  We had a rhythm rundown last night which.
• 28:42
  Was a lot of fun even though the Vikings completely no showed and
• 28:44
  let us down. But also Juice Reel.
• 28:47
  This pod is free. It cost you nothing.
• 28:49
  If you want to support the pod, tip your podcast.
• 28:52
  Host you can do. It in the form of $5 a week.
• 28:55
  Or more precisely, $4.99 a week. You can sign up to get the
• 28:59
  official. Best bet pics from the all
• 29:01
  systems. Go pod as soon.
• 29:02
  As I make them. They go right to the profile
• 29:04
  page, the ASG podcast page. On on juice rail you'll be able
• 29:08
  to tail fade get the get. The plays earlier, hopefully.
• 29:11
  Beat some closing lines you're. Also going to get those Robo
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  Jackson AI model. Plays each day that come out at
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  noon. As well as the sharp mush
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  indicators, the arbitrage plays the shop for the.
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  Best line futures all available. With juice rail.
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  So download Rhythm download. Juice rail and you'll be.
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  Off and running. Making sharp, data-driven plays
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  and give them a five star review in the App Store while you're at
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  it. Next you have a live odds page
• 29:34
  if you. Don't, man, I don't.
• 29:35
  Know how you're betting on? Sports because it's so hard.
• 29:37
  You're basically flying blind. You got to know what.
• 29:40
  The betting market is doing and you track the market with a live
• 29:42
  odds page so. Gives you the opening.
• 29:44
  Number the current. Numbers across the board.
• 29:46
  You can immediately see which. Direction the line is moving,
• 29:48
  you can pull up the. Line history you can.
• 29:50
  Figure out where the juice is leaning.
• 29:52
  You can identify steam as soon as any odds get lit up in red
• 29:56
  and then you know the markets moving and you say to yourself,
• 29:57
  oh, I bought a 32nd window to go find the book that.
• 30:00
  Hasn't moved yet and get a good. Good price there, so.
• 30:04
  Odds logic is a great. Live odds page.
• 30:06
  If you want to give it a shot, I would highly recommend going to.
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  Oddslogic.com slash. Josh 123 that'll give you a 7
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  Lastly, give Novig a shot. Novig is a betting exchange I've
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  partnered with because they give you really good numbers and why
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  do they give you better juice prices?
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  -1 O 5 -, 1 O 7. -1 O 2. The dogs plus one O 2 + 1 O3.
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  They give you better juice prices because.
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  They're not a sports. Book.
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  They're not going to gouge you with the juice and the vague
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  they're betting exchange. So instead of betting.
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  Against the House. You're betting against other
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  betters. And you're getting better
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  numbers because of it. And when you win and do well,
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  you're not going to get booted. Or limited so download Novig and
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  use promo. Code Josh 123.
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  For 100% deposit match up to 25 bucks so with.
• 30:56
  That being said guys, as always, two final thoughts, whether I
• 30:59
  see you at the Borgata. In Atlantic City Twin.
• 31:02
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn.
• 31:03
  New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in.
• 31:05
  Connecticut. The Encore in Boston.
• 31:07
  Plainridge. Park casino MGM Springfield the.
• 31:10
  Nash. And my neck of the woods on the
• 31:11
  border of. Massachusetts and New Hampshire,
• 31:14
  or out in the desert where the true.
• 31:15
  Grinders get down or Billy. Walters sends his number
• 31:18
  runners. Where the lowest juice possible.
• 31:20
  Is found at the South Point more sweat and sharp contrarian.
• 31:23
  Plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when you cash a
• 31:25
  big ticket at Circa wherever. It may be you're going.
• 31:28
  To walk up to me. And we're just going to shake
• 31:30
  our heads at how terrible. Carson Wentz is and also.
• 31:33
  You know you. Had this banged up.
• 31:34
  Offensive line for the Chargers, I thought.
• 31:36
  Brian. Flores would exploit.
• 31:38
  That not at all completely shredded by Justin Herbert, so.
• 31:42
  Again, some you win, some you. Lose some, you throw away.
• 31:45
  So we'll RIP up that bikes ticket.
• 31:47
  Make sure we recycle it instead of throwing.
• 31:49
  It in the trash. And we'll get we'll get a winner
• 31:52
  on the next one. But as always, guys coming off
• 31:54
  an. O and one or one and OA.
• 31:56
  Winning night. A losing night.
• 31:57
  A great night, a terrible night. Whether we're grinding.
• 31:59
  And can't miss or grinding and. You know, can't hit the broad
• 32:02
  side of a barn. We just got to stick with it.
• 32:04
  Never. Too high.
• 32:05
  Never too low, we're always somewhere in the middle.
• 32:07
  So if we can do. That find games that.
• 32:09
  Fit our model. Against the public, with the
• 32:12
  house, with the pros. Flat bet.
• 32:14
  Avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that.
• 32:16
  Long term. We're going to be successful.
• 32:18
  Sports bettors. So have a great Friday night
• 32:20
  everybody have an even better. Weekend and I'll see you back on
• 32:23
  Monday. For episode. 382 of the all
• 32:26
  systems. Go sports betting podcast
• 32:28
  powered. By rhythm.
• 32:30
  Good luck everybody. And have a great weekend.