Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Tommy Grisafi | Oil Plummets

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AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Tommy Grisafi | Oil Plummets · AG Bull

0:11
SPEAKER_00: I'm guessing, despite some pressure on corn and soybeans, Tommy's not too bad ometer may say it wasn't a terrible close, all things considered.
0:22
SPEAKER_00: Let's consider some of those things on this afternoon's Ag Squawk.
0:38
SPEAKER_00: Testing the limits of hotel Wi-Fi from Sparkle City, USA.
0:45
SPEAKER_00: Your pal Davis Michelson, the handsome newsman, here for you on Xquack in the afternoon.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: So glad that you are here with us today.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: Yesterday we spoke with Allison Thompson from the Money Farm.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: Terrific conversation.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: If you haven't had a chance to take a look at that, I would urge you to uh do so.
1:03
SPEAKER_00: Great chat there.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna run down some of the uh news of the day for you today.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: And uh, I don't know if uh I'm I'm looking here.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if Tommy's gonna be around or not.
1:13
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna if he is, if he if he pops in here, I'm gonna pull him in and we'll talk a little bit of markets.
1:18
SPEAKER_00: But uh it's it's for the most part just you and me this afternoon.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: I am on the road here and you know, knee deep in the great state of Iowa.
1:28
SPEAKER_00: And the rain did stop, but everything still kind of goes squish out there when you get off the beaten path.
1:35
SPEAKER_00: It's it's a wet one here in central Iowa, and it's it's much cooler, 57 degrees and overcast presently.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: That's just ahead of 2 p.m.
1:44
SPEAKER_00: Central Time here in central Iowa.
1:47
SPEAKER_00: As I said, super glad to have you along today.
1:51
SPEAKER_00: Let's go here first and then we'll get into it.
1:53
SPEAKER_00: We got crop and discrop condition report coming up, but first let me urge you to visit Agbol.com for some Agbol Intel.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: Take your marketing by the horns with AgBull.com.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: As I said, oh, looks like we've got uh we've got Agbol T-Rex Tommy Grossafi himself standing by.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: So we'll get we'll get to it.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: Let's start with crop conditions.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: Corn condition ratings exceeded analyst expectations by a full percentage point at 57% good to excellent.
2:21
SPEAKER_00: However, that number was well below last year's 66% good to excellent, but in line with the previous week, uh corn harvest is humming along ahead of schedule, 13% complete presently.
2:36
SPEAKER_00: Soybean condition ratings unchanged at 58%, in line with analyst expectations and in line with the previous week's report.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: Spring wheat harvest has advanced to 96% complete.
2:50
SPEAKER_00: That was in line with analyst expectations.
2:52
SPEAKER_00: Winter wheat sowings bested expectations at 17% complete, still three points behind year ago.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: There's been some concern for uh we're gonna get that wheat crop in on time.
3:05
SPEAKER_00: It looks like they're pretty close to the same spot they were in last year on this date.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: So a few items from the news today.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: The farm economy has changed significantly since the 2018 farm bill.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: Now we've talked about the uh farm bill is a 2.0.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: I don't even know what they're calling it.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: The the present farm bill did pass through the Senate Ag Committee uh thanks to the uh return of Mitch McConnell, but it's gonna be a fight along partisan lines.
3:34
SPEAKER_00: Democrats have their issues that they want to have in there, and I think Republicans are gonna push back.
3:39
SPEAKER_00: There'll be all sorts of pushing back to try and get this done, especially ahead of the midterm elections.
3:45
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to be too pessimistic about it, but uh I'm I I I'm having a hard time being overly optimistic as well that we see this thing get done ahead of the midterms.
3:55
SPEAKER_00: Anywho, back to production costs.
3:57
SPEAKER_00: Production costs have risen faster than the prices farmers receive for their crops.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: A recent study from multiple farm groups shows that the prices paid index for crop production inputs climbed more than 38%.
4:11
SPEAKER_00: So inputs up 38% from July 18 through July 2026.
4:16
SPEAKER_00: Over the same period, the prices received index for crop products did also increase about 24%.
4:25
SPEAKER_00: But farmers and ranchers, according to this report, have also faced higher interest rates, rising equipment and farmland costs, increasing farm debt.
4:33
SPEAKER_00: Now, higher land values have strengthened balance sheets to some degree, but they also raise costs for beginning farmers and those looking to expand those beginning farmers and succession planning.
4:44
SPEAKER_00: If you if you're a regular viewer of the program, you know anytime I can bring up succession and talk to especially farm folks about how did you get there?
4:53
SPEAKER_00: What did that plan look like?
4:55
SPEAKER_00: What plan do you have for your young folks that are in your orbit?
4:59
SPEAKER_00: These are these are important things, but man, the high cost of land, it's great if you've already got some tricky if you're trying to get into the business.
5:07
SPEAKER_00: The changes demonstrate the need for a new farm bill that reflects today's higher costs, greater capital requirements, and increased risks.
5:16
SPEAKER_00: I don't think I have to tell you that inputs have outrun the returns, and the cost of production is uh sky high.
5:24
SPEAKER_00: I'll have some fresh fertilizer numbers for you.
5:26
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I'll get those done from here on the road tomorrow or not.
5:29
SPEAKER_00: If not, I'll I'll be sure and get those filed for you next week.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: Let's go to China.
5:35
SPEAKER_00: China's purchases of U.S.
5:36
SPEAKER_00: ag products remain well below the pace needed to meet a recently announced trade commitment.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: The White House said in May that China would purchase at least$17 billion of U.S.
5:47
SPEAKER_00: farm goods annually through 2028 with the 2026 Target Pro rated soybeans were excluded from that figure because China had separately made a pledge to increase soybean purchases.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: However, ag department data shows China bought just$3.9 billion of U.S.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: ag products, excluding soybeans, of course, during the first seven months of 2026.
6:10
SPEAKER_00: So they've they've bought 3.9 billion worth of ag products on a promised$17 billion.
6:18
SPEAKER_00: There's some work to do there, I think, is what they're trying to tell us.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: Bloomberg said that was only slightly more than the same period the prior year when purchases were at a six-year low.
6:28
SPEAKER_00: Here's a little good news.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: A little good news.
6:31
SPEAKER_00: California has cleared the final regulatory hurdle for retailers to offer E-15 gasoline, potentially opening a major new market for ethanol.
6:39
SPEAKER_00: Governor Gavin Newsome signed Senate Bill 7905, the E-15 Cleanup Act, into law following unanimous passage by the California legislature on August 31st.
6:52
SPEAKER_00: That's always been my thing.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: You want greener fuels, you want to, you want a cleaner environment, especially out there.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: You know, you think of Los Angeles and you oftentimes you think of smog, a little cleaner burning fuel like uh like delicious E-15 would be great and probably go a long way to help cleaning up the skies over Los Angeles.
7:11
SPEAKER_00: And here we have unanimous passage by the California legislature back on August 31st.
7:16
SPEAKER_00: That's a while ago, but uh E-15 Cleanup Act signed into law there.
7:21
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get to the markets, the tail of the ticker.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: Corn under light pressure that pretty quickly turned into a nickel lower.
7:28
SPEAKER_00: Soybeans nodded to the upside, but followed corn toward the end of the first hour of trade to the downside.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: KC wheat led winter wheat lower, falling about a nickel of its own.
7:39
SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures were under moderate pressure to start the session.
7:42
SPEAKER_00: But look out, lean hogs bucked the trend, adding a dollar or more in the first hour of trade.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: Now, rounding into lunch, corn had paired losses as soybeans came well off session lows to trade fractionally unchanged.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: Wheat futures were still lower, trading just off session lows.
7:59
SPEAKER_00: Cattle futures two and a half to three and a half bucks lower.
8:03
SPEAKER_00: And lean hogs held held early morning gains that right around lunchtime.
8:08
SPEAKER_00: Let me pull up my settlements here.
8:09
SPEAKER_00: I've got December corn all told down six and one quarter cents at five thirty-six and three-quarters.
8:16
SPEAKER_00: Here's your Nobi beans down two and a half.
8:18
SPEAKER_00: Looked like we were maybe going to get at least unchanged or even fractionally higher on the November soybeans.
8:24
SPEAKER_00: It wasn't to be 13.25 and one half is down two and a half cents on the day.
8:30
SPEAKER_00: Soybean meal was higher, soybean oil was lower.
8:33
SPEAKER_00: I think Tommy's got some news on some soybean oil that he'd like to talk about.
8:36
SPEAKER_00: And then we've let's look over to the winter wheats.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: Your December winter wheat, December Chicago wheat, excuse me, down nine and a half, seven seventeen and a quarter.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: The KC D's 781 and one quarter at settlement.
8:49
SPEAKER_00: That one's down 13 and one quarter cents.
8:52
SPEAKER_00: Double digits all the way out to the July.
8:55
SPEAKER_00: We're down an even dime in the July KC wheat, 793 and three quarters.
9:01
SPEAKER_00: Let's hit the livestock tab here.
9:03
SPEAKER_00: Looks like we've got October feeders down 222 and one half at 328.02 and a half.
9:10
SPEAKER_00: December fat cattle 219 and 45 at settlement, down 255 on the day.
9:17
SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs swooping in to save the day.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: The route was saved by Lean Hogs.
9:22
SPEAKER_00: The October contract down a buck 12 and a half at 79.27 and one half in the December Lean Hog contracts, 71 bucks even on the snout, down a buck 20 on the day.
9:34
SPEAKER_00: Those are your settlements today.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: And let me just take a moment for our sponsor.
9:38
SPEAKER_00: Thanks to plus 500.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: That's plus 500.
9:40
SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 software every day for real-time quotes and a host of dandy features.
9:47
SPEAKER_00: Plus 500.
9:48
SPEAKER_00: Thank you, plus 500.
9:51
SPEAKER_00: With that, have we got Tommy?
9:52
SPEAKER_00: Is he standing by?
9:53
SPEAKER_00: Let's bring in Tommy Grassaffee, the T-Rex of Agbol himself, the uh 17th sexiest man known to agriculture.
10:03
SPEAKER_00: Tom, Tom, good afternoon.
10:04
SPEAKER_00: Looks like you are you at the uh Nashville podcast studio.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: Is that where I've got you right now?
10:08
SPEAKER_03: Absolutely.
10:09
SPEAKER_03: Downtown Nashville.
10:11
SPEAKER_03: Weather is finally cooling off, Davis.
10:13
SPEAKER_03: It has been record, record, record hot.
10:18
SPEAKER_03: That cold and rainy that the Midwest is getting, those big rains in Iowa, that heat has just been locked down here.
10:25
SPEAKER_03: It actually felt nice today.
10:26
SPEAKER_03: I'm excited to go for a walk.
10:28
SPEAKER_03: It's raining.
10:29
SPEAKER_03: Maybe that'll clean up some of the pee and puke here on the uh Nashville street because it gets pretty built up, especially after all those Eagles fans were here.
10:37
SPEAKER_03: Boy, did the Eagles travel well to uh get that late win in Titan Stadium.
10:43
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, we're down here.
10:44
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
10:45
SPEAKER_00: Our my beloved Chiefs just squeaked by the Colts the other night, too.
10:49
SPEAKER_00: They uh they but they but they made it.
10:51
SPEAKER_03: Uh yeah, and Taylor was like, Look at the ring, that's my guy, you know.
10:54
SPEAKER_03: Saw that.
10:55
SPEAKER_03: I saw that.
10:56
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, but I'm like, look at our podcast, that's my guy.
10:58
SPEAKER_03: That's David.
11:00
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, what's that?
11:01
SPEAKER_00: Well, I gotta give her credit.
11:02
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I had opined once she and uh Travis got married, is she's still gonna come to the games, you know?
11:07
SPEAKER_00: Uh good for her.
11:08
SPEAKER_00: Good for her.
11:09
SPEAKER_03: You were worried if we could fill up a show today.
11:11
SPEAKER_03: Here we are.
11:11
SPEAKER_00: We're talking we've always got Taylor Swift, you know, if we pad the show that way.
11:17
SPEAKER_00: No, I said from the beginning, Tommy.
11:19
SPEAKER_03: Oh, yeah.
11:20
SPEAKER_03: Real quick, breaking news.
11:22
SPEAKER_03: Ella Langley pop in the charts.
11:24
SPEAKER_03: Some big news coming out of Nashville.
11:26
SPEAKER_03: I'm an Ellis fella.
11:27
SPEAKER_03: You're a big fan, aren't you?
11:29
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I got an Ellis fella shirt.
11:30
SPEAKER_03: But uh just in Ella Langley's choosing Texas officially becomes the longest running number one single in U.S.
11:37
SPEAKER_03: chart history, spending 23 weeks atop the billboard.
11:41
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I kind of like that.
11:43
SPEAKER_03: Thinking she had a good, I just liked her.
11:46
SPEAKER_03: And so a year and a half ago, there were some tickets coming up for sale at the Ryman Ella two nights in November, and we bought both nights and kind of like speculating.
11:56
SPEAKER_03: I bought extra tickets and I was gonna sell them for double, and then my kids are like, no, no, we're going.
12:02
SPEAKER_03: So but it's pretty cool to be if we as you know from the Eggbull uh studio here at Nesvik.
12:08
SPEAKER_03: I'm literally looking down at the roof at the uh Ryman Theater, and yeah, we got to get those folks from the Ryman up here.
12:15
SPEAKER_03: We gotta let them know we have a little podcast.
12:17
SPEAKER_03: That'd be cool.
12:17
SPEAKER_00: That'd be cool.
12:18
SPEAKER_00: Maybe you know, come to think of it.
12:19
SPEAKER_00: I think I've if I can unsnap my shirt, I've got my Layla's t-shirt on right now.
12:23
SPEAKER_03: In fact, Layla's big shout out to Layla's.
12:26
SPEAKER_03: Shout out to Tonkey Tonk going there.
12:29
SPEAKER_03: I thought I was got worried when you now I have a shirt called Noble.
12:32
SPEAKER_03: Noble's a brand.
12:34
SPEAKER_03: It's also there's a gal who has a website called Noble.
12:38
SPEAKER_03: Not to be confused with Egg Bull, but noble is a clothing and shoe line, but uh, kind of looks good on the Egg Bull studio.
12:45
SPEAKER_03: Noble today.
12:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
12:47
SPEAKER_00: Well, you you got a nose for these things.
12:50
SPEAKER_00: You you you you saw Ella coming, you got behind it right away, and I want to lean into your horse sense here.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: I mentioned from the top the Tommy meter would probably say, despite some pressure on corn and soybeans, not too bad a day in the markets today, at least on corn and soybeans.
13:10
SPEAKER_00: I don't know where you want to start, buddy, but I'd I'd definitely like to hear your thoughts on how the markets acted today.
13:15
SPEAKER_00: What's your thought?
13:16
SPEAKER_03: Well, they uh incredible strength here in beans.
13:19
SPEAKER_03: Beans were down eight overnight, came rallied back up three.
13:23
SPEAKER_03: Wheat was heavy all day, very quiet day in the wheat, one of the quietest days I can remember in a long time in wheat.
13:29
SPEAKER_03: But late in the day, there was a headline that came out that the Trump administration is exploring a possible diesel export ban.
13:39
SPEAKER_03: Not confirmed, but Scott Basent, who we talk about a lot, Jim and I, Treasury Secretary, they before they go do something that drastic, they need to know the effects.
13:48
SPEAKER_03: And just the talk of that probably took corn from down two or three to down seven close towards the end of the day, and it really hit bean oil.
13:56
SPEAKER_03: But as you were talking, yes, definitely not a bad day.
14:00
SPEAKER_03: I mean, beans were late in the day up three, they sold off to down three.
14:04
SPEAKER_03: We're expecting more harvest pressure, but yet not all of our clients are even close to being able to harvest due to these rains in in the Midwest.
14:13
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, maybe it's not raining today and it's sunny, but they're the amount of rain that came down in Minnesota, Iowa, parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, it's starting to rain every other day in North Dakota.
14:27
SPEAKER_03: They couldn't catch a rain in June and July, and now they're getting one every other day.
14:31
SPEAKER_03: So a little slow start to harvest.
14:33
SPEAKER_03: I think USDA yesterday, Davis had it at 13, 15%.
14:37
SPEAKER_03: So call it 10 to 15% through harvest.
14:39
SPEAKER_03: Once we start to get through that 25%, 50%, watch when we go past 50% for what the markets do, because that's that gut slot of harvest of, hey, we're absorbing the harvest pressure.
14:52
SPEAKER_03: And as the harvest gets stretched out, which is happening, so over the last few years, the boys and girls get in the combines and they start rolling and they just haven't stopped.
15:02
SPEAKER_03: Like they've had to the point where they're relieved when they catch a rain day, just so they can give the guys and gals a day off, refuel everything, change some oil and some equipment.
15:11
SPEAKER_03: But a lot of delays in harvest doesn't mean the crop's not out there, but the the machine, the demand machine within America, and the export machine, we're just using up more of this product.
15:25
SPEAKER_03: So you're starting to see some basis moves up.
15:29
SPEAKER_03: I see on the old X Twitter sphere, spear, fear, whatever you call it.
15:34
SPEAKER_01: Sphere, yeah, you got it.
15:36
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, some people they need some quick ship beans, dollar over.
15:40
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you talk 1325 beans, dollar over 1425.
15:43
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, but can you actually go out in the field to get them?
15:45
SPEAKER_03: And do you still have beans left over from last year?
15:48
SPEAKER_03: So this time of year we get real sticky with hey, we need them now, but in two weeks we won't need them at all.
15:54
SPEAKER_03: And that's where we're at.
15:55
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
15:56
SPEAKER_00: I spoke with with Alison Thompson yesterday from the money farm.
15:59
SPEAKER_00: You know, you know her.
16:00
SPEAKER_00: Um, yeah, and we had a great conversation.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: She she was talking about the longs in this market and how long the funds are in the corn and in the soybeans, I think to a lesser degree.
16:12
SPEAKER_00: But I I asked her, you know, how how tenuous are we here at these current price levels?
16:19
SPEAKER_00: And then, you know, I it just occurred to me as you were talking there.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: I'm I don't have a good feel for how sensitive the markets are.
16:25
SPEAKER_00: Does the market care if harvest is delayed?
16:28
SPEAKER_00: Do they care?
16:29
SPEAKER_00: I we talk about planting delay that sometimes gets into the market.
16:32
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but what about harvest delays?
16:34
SPEAKER_03: Well, we have the crop out there, it's just that's the thing, right?
16:37
SPEAKER_03: So if to get to not get the crop in, you're gonna pollinate on different weeks, on hotter weeks, you might lose growing degree days, but the crops out there, whether it might not be the best crop, it may be a phenomenal crop in soybeans in certain areas.
16:53
SPEAKER_03: I'm hearing that, but it it's out there.
16:57
SPEAKER_03: What happens is locally, if you're a processor and you're like, yeah, we're gonna start running out of stuff, but don't worry, there's harvest, and harvest gets delayed two, three weeks.
17:06
SPEAKER_03: The only way to entice the farmer to bring in bushels is to bring them in.
17:10
SPEAKER_03: And you do that by posting on the board, sending out a text, hey, we're 50 cents over, we're 75 over, we're a dollar over, quick ship.
17:19
SPEAKER_03: I need 50,000 bushels in the next few days.
17:21
SPEAKER_03: And you send out that smoke signal that we're a dollar over, people get out there and they'll go harvest some wet beans or do something, and maybe they don't dock them for being a little over on moisture or something, but they got to get them in.
17:32
SPEAKER_03: I remember several years ago in Claypool, Indiana.
17:36
SPEAKER_03: I'm not sure what happened, but soybeans were at$10, and there was a processing plant that was running out, and they went five dollars over the board for one day.
17:47
SPEAKER_03: They said we're$11 bid,$12,$13,$14, we're$15 bid.
17:53
SPEAKER_03: Like we're not shutting down this bean plant.
17:55
SPEAKER_03: Now that's the type of thing someone usually loses their job over, right?
17:58
SPEAKER_03: But you can't go to the board of trade, click the mouse, and buy physical beans.
18:01
SPEAKER_03: So we trade the digital side here, the paper as you call it.
18:04
SPEAKER_03: But when you need the physical, oh boy, you know what kind of reminds me of the great toilet paper shortage of 2020.
18:12
SPEAKER_03: I mean, when you don't have toilet paper, you know what that means.
18:14
SPEAKER_03: You're switching to like paper towels or some other product.
18:17
SPEAKER_03: Things can get rough down there, right?
18:19
SPEAKER_00: Nobody wants that.
18:20
SPEAKER_00: Nobody wants that.
18:21
SPEAKER_03: Ain't got no time for that.
18:24
SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for bringing us to that image, Tommy.
18:26
SPEAKER_00: I appreciate that.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: This is I'm glad I brought you in.
18:31
SPEAKER_03: I'll be subbing for you on Thursday and Friday with all the jokes.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: That's right.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: I'll be I'll be traveling.
18:36
SPEAKER_00: So uh maybe you can you can dig deeper into these concepts, the mind of Tommy Grasafi on uh display later on this week.
18:44
SPEAKER_00: So do you feel like this is a this is a spot where we maybe need to get something done?
18:51
SPEAKER_00: I'll ask you, you know, you can give us the the upside potential and the downside risk here, but how do we need to be thinking about this as combines are uh gonna start rolling eventually at some point here?
19:04
SPEAKER_00: Harvest, you know, 13-ish percent done on on corn.
19:09
SPEAKER_00: Do we do we wait here or do you think some harvest pressure kind of comes in here?
19:13
SPEAKER_00: What's uh give us give us the bull and the bear here, buddy?
19:18
SPEAKER_03: Well, from the farmer's standpoint, I think there is forward sold.
19:22
SPEAKER_03: When I look at my customer book or my brother Joe and I talk, I think every bushel that's coming in at harvest has already been priced due to that March rally, due to the May, early June rally, then we broke hard late in June, and then due to this most recent rally and this pop yesterday, Sunday night, Monday, on this optimism of maybe a positive China meeting, I think farmers have grain sold.
19:45
SPEAKER_03: It's not often someone's calling our phone anymore and saying, I'm getting ready to make a big sale.
19:50
SPEAKER_03: Like they've had three chances to make sales and clean up old crop and new crop.
19:54
SPEAKER_03: So I think as far as American Farmer, they're pretty far along.
19:57
SPEAKER_03: One thing though, if you get anything from the show, there's a huge risk in the next 30 days because we're going to establish that October crop insurance price.
20:09
SPEAKER_03: And if we for some reason, it could be a big sell-off in crude oil and heating oil, harvest pressure, et cetera, if the funds get nervous and puke some of their longs into that October time frame frame, we want to establish a high crop insurance price for so many people who have had production problems this year, right?
20:28
SPEAKER_03: It gives the farmer that extra layer.
20:31
SPEAKER_03: But unlike the futures market that opens and closes and trades and is liquid, and you get in and out of you have static versus dynamic, and the you establish your fall, your spring price, and now you're gonna establish your fall price.
20:46
SPEAKER_03: So though there's a great risk.
20:47
SPEAKER_03: I put out a text today to Agble uh brokerage clients and then Agble Intel subscribers saying, you know what?
20:56
SPEAKER_03: I hope we go up.
20:57
SPEAKER_03: I want us to go up, I'm rooting for you.
20:59
SPEAKER_03: Every broker loves a big bull market, it creates business, right?
21:03
SPEAKER_03: Traders, speculators, some people say it's you know, there's opportunities in great big bull markets, it creates volatility.
21:10
SPEAKER_03: But the next 30 days, what would hurt the bottom line if you're a number cruncher, if you got your spreadsheet up there, if you got whatever app you're using to keep track of your farm profitability, a big push down in the next 30 days would be detrimental to some balance sheets as we come into winter.
21:27
SPEAKER_03: Now we could push down and rocket right out of it, because now we have to deal with South American weather.
21:33
SPEAKER_03: We have to deal with this El Nino.
21:35
SPEAKER_03: I guess there's a new record was set that we have not had a hurricane for over a hundred days, and we haven't broken a record like that for a long time.
21:44
SPEAKER_03: And so you could definitely see the weather patterns are unique with too much heat, not enough heat, too much rain, not enough rain.
21:52
SPEAKER_03: Well, that same type of pattern is gonna start to happen down south.
21:56
SPEAKER_03: And you know, of course, we had that hot, dry pattern in the Nesvik office.
22:01
SPEAKER_03: I heard the traders talking this morning about the price of corn in the Matif that European corn, French corn is uh moving.
22:09
SPEAKER_03: Up the charts, right?
22:10
SPEAKER_03: So we'll see.
22:11
SPEAKER_03: There's a lot of things in play.
22:12
SPEAKER_03: But to answer your question, I'd like a defensive stance here for the next 30 days.
22:17
SPEAKER_03: We have a crop report coming up again in a week.
22:20
SPEAKER_03: That could be a flyer at the end of September.
22:22
SPEAKER_03: Of course, just anytime we have month end, that could be a flyer.
22:26
SPEAKER_03: I do want to say there's a lot of positives and optimistics in the world markets.
22:29
SPEAKER_03: I know people think the world's ending and they're caught short diesel, but copper just hit an all-time high right before we hit play and record.
22:39
SPEAKER_03: So Dr.
22:40
SPEAKER_03: Copper on the high, NASDAQ SP stock market ripping higher yesterday, up again today.
22:48
SPEAKER_03: If you think, oh, fuel's high, I got to sell my portfolio, massive mistake.
22:53
SPEAKER_03: Who had on their bingo card?
22:54
SPEAKER_03: The Fed was going to raise rates a quarter last week, and the markets were going to rally right out of that.
22:59
SPEAKER_03: So that was that pressure in the stock market when the Fed raised rates, but it digested that, spit it out, spit it out, and it's moving forward.
23:06
SPEAKER_03: So everyone's always uh you could see in Trump's tone that he kind of realizes that he's pushed against a wall now in the midterms.
23:15
SPEAKER_03: They're coming up pretty fast.
23:16
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
23:17
SPEAKER_03: Whether he can get fuel down fast enough, uh, there's just some expenses he won't be able to get down.
23:21
SPEAKER_03: So I don't know what'll happen with Iran, but we have China in town this week.
23:26
SPEAKER_03: Let's hope they show.
23:27
SPEAKER_03: Could you imagine?
23:28
SPEAKER_03: What if they say, you know what?
23:32
SPEAKER_03: Big guy has a cold.
23:33
SPEAKER_03: He can't make it, but he sent his number two guy, right?
23:36
SPEAKER_03: That won't go over well.
23:37
SPEAKER_03: You could see a swoop down in soybeans that could take your breath away.
23:41
SPEAKER_03: And when the markets go up like they have been, farmers stop selling.
23:45
SPEAKER_03: Nothing brings in more selling, Davis, than an actual down day.
23:48
SPEAKER_03: Talk to anyone who runs an elevator, they will tell you the deep down secret is they buy more grain on down days than up days.
23:55
SPEAKER_03: So we need to get our risk manager ahead out here and get a little defensive here in the next 30 days, in my opinion.
24:01
SPEAKER_03: And how would we do that?
24:02
SPEAKER_03: Should be your next question, right?
24:04
SPEAKER_00: It should be.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
24:05
SPEAKER_03: And it is.
24:06
SPEAKER_03: We can sell cash grain and buy calls or call spreads.
24:10
SPEAKER_03: Or if you just want to buy 30 or 60 days worth of time, we're just going to layer in a basic put, a put to cover that gap between where the cash markets have gone to and that big gap from where your spring price was to your fall price.
24:27
SPEAKER_03: It the American Farmer has fiduciary duty to cover that crop insurance gap.
24:31
SPEAKER_03: And you can do it through cash sales and call ownership, or you can just buy an old-fashioned put option at the Border Trade CME group.
24:37
SPEAKER_03: You don't have to spend a lot because you're not spending so much time and the markets are at a higher price just to get that floor.
24:44
SPEAKER_03: So if you wake up one morning at three in the morning and you're like, what happened?
24:47
SPEAKER_03: And they say he's not coming.
24:50
SPEAKER_03: And all of a sudden, Moscow and Zelensky are going to a meeting, they're going to try to work this out, which doesn't sound likely.
24:56
SPEAKER_03: And the damage done over there is uh Yeah, now you're talking crazy.
25:00
SPEAKER_03: Well, yeah, it's just there's a lot of moving pieces here in the world.
25:04
SPEAKER_03: So at any point, we could be much higher or much lower, but the amount of energy it's gonna take to keep corn going up with the funds this long.
25:13
SPEAKER_03: And I I didn't I listened to parts of the podcast yesterday.
25:17
SPEAKER_03: I don't know if Allison's overall term was be defensive or be a bull.
25:22
SPEAKER_03: Did she have her horns out or did she have a little hold on seat belts, folks?
25:26
SPEAKER_03: It could get rough.
25:28
SPEAKER_00: She was she was right down the middle, more more of a hold to leaning toward defense, is the way I read it anyway.
25:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
25:37
SPEAKER_00: So I think you're on the right track there.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: I think you'd be in agreement.
25:40
SPEAKER_03: Could we talk cattle real quick?
25:42
SPEAKER_00: Do you wanna?
25:43
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so cattle had that monster update yesterday based on the uh cattle on feed from Friday, and then a rumor came out today that there was different authorities, agencies.
25:53
SPEAKER_03: I think they once wrote a song about it, Ice Ice Baby, or something.
25:56
SPEAKER_00: But I think it was I fought the law on the law one, actually.
26:01
SPEAKER_03: You start talking about having ice outside of packing plants, and you make the cattle uh market uh uh nervous.
26:08
SPEAKER_03: Not confirmed, but there were different agencies in different towns arresting bad people, not workers just like your normal thug patrol, right?
26:18
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I tell you what, that market was sensitive to headlines like that, and that was that quick sell-off from we opened up higher again, nice follow-through just for a few minutes, and then cattle and feeders went lower, and then this rumor spread.
26:30
SPEAKER_03: I don't know who the hell spreads all these rumors.
26:33
SPEAKER_03: And but boy, are they moving markets, especially in something like cattle.
26:37
SPEAKER_03: I think these people should get in trouble, but no one even knows where the rumors originate from, right?
26:42
SPEAKER_03: And in some crazy Twitter handle that isn't registered to this country puts out something, and they're never real people, but for some reason, I don't know if it's algorithms or whatever, it's the original fake news.
26:54
SPEAKER_03: You've been in the industry long enough.
26:56
SPEAKER_03: I mean, if you put something out like that in your early career, you'd be fired.
27:00
SPEAKER_03: And yeah, but it's moving markets.
27:02
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
27:03
SPEAKER_00: Speaking of moving markets, the bright spot today was was the lean hogs.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: If we're if when I look at that coupled with, and there was some news in the cattle, I'm glad you brought that out.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: But we're post-labor day here now, and pretty soon, you know, a guy starts to think about Christmas hams instead of steaks for the grill.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: Are we seeing a little bit of seasonal uh action here in the in the relationship between the cattle and the hogs?
27:26
SPEAKER_00: The hogs are strong today, what up a buck 20 or something like that?
27:29
SPEAKER_00: It was a good day for the hogs.
27:31
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, they need it though, Davis.
27:33
SPEAKER_03: If we pulled the hog chart up, you'd see that they've really been sold.
27:37
SPEAKER_03: The funds had went from long to short.
27:40
SPEAKER_03: The the margins look horrible for the uh hog producer.
27:43
SPEAKER_03: And then you throw in the higher prices, you notice soybean meals exploded the last few weeks, and it's starting to have a really positive action.
27:51
SPEAKER_03: So when you talk about higher corn, 540 corn and higher meal, and you got to feed and scrunch all that in with a bunch of DDGs and uh amino acids to make that hog, the it's become extremely expensive.
28:04
SPEAKER_03: Then you got to truck them to your packing plant, assuming they haven't closed down lately, right?
28:09
SPEAKER_03: So the hog producer's looking at some serious headwinds here with just the amount of money it costs to produce one pound of pork.
28:16
SPEAKER_03: As far as grilling season, I think maybe grilling season's changed a little bit or because we all have these, not we all, if you're blessed enough to have a traeger or something in you know a winter coat, I cook out the same almost regardless of what season it is.
28:31
SPEAKER_03: I probably might even cook outside more in the winter than I do in the summer by having a trigger grill or some type of smoker grill where you can go set it and forget it and watch your Chiefs win, right?
28:43
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, exactly.
28:44
SPEAKER_00: Now, are you talking, are you talking down uh when you're visiting Nashville or are you talking back in Indiana?
28:49
SPEAKER_03: Well, they don't let me hang out a grill outside my apartment window, so that would be difficult.
28:54
SPEAKER_03: But uh in Indiana, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
28:57
SPEAKER_03: Very good.
28:58
SPEAKER_03: We we like to grill out so many more friends.
29:01
SPEAKER_03: Magically, when your neighbors smell the smoke, they they're hey, what you doing, buddy?
29:05
SPEAKER_03: You know, all of a sudden you got all these friends.
29:07
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
29:08
SPEAKER_00: That's uh there have been times in in KC.
29:12
SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's barbecue central down there where you know, just about everybody through the backyards down my block, and myself included, are out there.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: Now, I do the old school with just the charcoal and the lighter fluid and everything, and I'm I'm kind of an old school guy, a very tactile fellow.
29:28
SPEAKER_00: I don't grill that much once uh once it gets below 40 degrees outside.
29:32
SPEAKER_03: Shame on you.
29:33
SPEAKER_00: Shame on you in KC.
29:35
SPEAKER_00: That's not very often, actually, through the winters lately.
29:38
SPEAKER_03: Real quick, top three KC places in your estimate.
29:41
SPEAKER_03: Everyone's got a different taste when it comes to barbecue.
29:44
SPEAKER_00: Okay, I'm gonna go sauce.
29:47
SPEAKER_00: It's gotta be gates, ribs, I like Jackstack, sides, and accoutrement, accoutrements.
29:57
SPEAKER_00: It might be Q39.
29:59
SPEAKER_03: Can we give a shout out to all those?
30:01
SPEAKER_00: I'd give a shout out to all of them.
30:02
SPEAKER_00: There's one, there's two, and one more.
30:07
unknown: Come on.
30:08
SPEAKER_00: Now I'll tell you, there's a there is one, and I'm not gonna name them because I don't want to dog anybody out here.
30:14
SPEAKER_00: I've had their I've had their food once.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: They're very popular.
30:17
SPEAKER_00: They run out of a it used to be an old gas station, which I don't know if you can get gas there anymore.
30:23
SPEAKER_00: Every time I go there, the line inside is too long.
30:26
SPEAKER_00: You know, like Arthur Bryant.
30:28
SPEAKER_00: You wait in line, but they have a couple of cashiers, you can move it through, you know, you can get through there.
30:32
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to stand around all day waiting for this stuff, Tommy.
30:35
SPEAKER_00: I got things to do.
30:36
SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm a busy man.
30:37
SPEAKER_00: I I'm I'm expected in places, and so I wanna I always find when I we just go waltzing into Gates Barbecue, classic Gates.
30:48
SPEAKER_00: You know, I think I saw the founder there one night, Ollie Gates.
30:51
SPEAKER_00: I think this mean Bill.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: No, I'm afraid not.
30:54
SPEAKER_00: No, I don't want anything to do with his ribs.
30:56
SPEAKER_00: This is I think it's Ollie, but Mr.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: Gates, I think, was there just sitting kind of in the in the lobby there, just hanging out.
31:05
SPEAKER_00: But them, you you just hop in and it is it's just delicious every time.
31:09
SPEAKER_00: I like their sauce, it's a little molassesier, you know, a little more molassy.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: I like that that sassy molassy when I'm having my ribs.
31:18
SPEAKER_00: Clientele.
31:19
SPEAKER_00: Talk to me about your clients.
31:20
SPEAKER_00: And I should I should just say we've got the you can see we've got the uh disclaimer thing rolling up here, but uh futures and options, substantial risk of loss, past uh successes don't necessarily reflect future results, yada yada.
31:34
SPEAKER_00: Hello, compliance.
31:36
SPEAKER_00: Have you got people calling you talking about uh getting something done for next year?
31:41
SPEAKER_00: And you know, is it time to do that?
31:42
SPEAKER_00: Is the time for that?
31:45
SPEAKER_03: For next year?
31:46
SPEAKER_03: We have a little problem for next year.
31:48
SPEAKER_03: Oh the problem for next year is all their expenses are exploding.
31:53
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
31:54
SPEAKER_03: And when you are having to buy fuel load by load, and some people I did talk to some clients yesterday, I said, How are you doing on fertilizer?
32:02
SPEAKER_03: You nervous?
32:02
SPEAKER_03: They said they bought it on that dip in August.
32:09
SPEAKER_03: And some people were hoping the dip was bigger.
32:11
SPEAKER_03: So, what's a dip in fertilizer look like?
32:13
SPEAKER_03: And you talk about fertilizer once a week on the show, or sometimes you have experts on, but trying they're trying to wrap their round their head around how short is this crop and how bold up should they be?
32:23
SPEAKER_03: How do they cash flow and everything else?
32:26
SPEAKER_03: We sell grain, farmers.
32:28
SPEAKER_03: When I say we, the farmer sells grain for two reasons.
32:31
SPEAKER_03: They need money, this is why they do it.
32:33
SPEAKER_03: We'd like to make you better than that, but they sell grain because they need money or they're out of space.
32:38
SPEAKER_03: I have a huge book of clients who's not going to run out of space because they don't have a crop.
32:44
SPEAKER_03: So now you got to look at carry basis, spreads, everything else, and and do the math of should I hold my beans all the way to next July, or should I sell them right off the combine?
32:55
SPEAKER_03: And a lot of conversations, but we start to hedge 2027, and some people have it on, but then they're like, you know, I think I'm gonna cool the jets a little bit because there's just too many things going on.
33:06
SPEAKER_03: And when I say too many things going on selfishly here in America, we always think it's about us, right?
33:11
SPEAKER_03: We're a bunch of narcissists, most people are, but really it's way more about Russia and Ukraine and the the damage, the infrastructure damage, the they're every single person in the world now is caught short fuel.
33:26
SPEAKER_03: I noticed before I went live, natural gas was up five percent.
33:29
SPEAKER_03: Can't give you a reason, yeah.
33:30
SPEAKER_03: Um, but natural gas up five percent today.
33:33
SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's gotta be European demand, doesn't it?
33:36
SPEAKER_03: Call it what you want, it's there, right?
33:38
SPEAKER_03: Margins are due, buddy boy.
33:40
SPEAKER_03: But Russia and Ukraine's a much bigger deal than are we 52.5, are we 53 bush?
33:48
SPEAKER_03: I mean, American brokers and analysts fixate over this and that, and they lose such big they lose such track of the big world picture.
33:57
SPEAKER_03: And that's why it's great to talk to commercial grain traders who are on the ports, whether it be the PNW down in the Gulf and the East Coast.
34:04
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you gotta get more of a worldly view.
34:06
SPEAKER_03: It's 2026, we're rolling into 2027.
34:09
SPEAKER_03: You and you know how it is, like you go to your little town and you start talking to your folks who are local, and you start to get backyard itis, and the world's a really big place, but everybody, the whole entire world now is becoming short energies, and they didn't want that position on.
34:27
SPEAKER_03: They got assigned that position.
34:29
SPEAKER_03: That's gonna change the skew of how aggressive should we be for 27.
34:33
SPEAKER_03: One thing I will tell you though, folks, for 2027, take a look at the wheat prices, what you can do with wheat in 2027.
34:42
SPEAKER_03: Wheat will no longer be called poverty grass on the Ag Bull Podcast and Ag Squawk.
34:47
SPEAKER_03: Do you have a new name for wheat, Davis?
34:48
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna I'm gonna timestamp that we could let's see.
34:52
SPEAKER_00: Now keep going.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: I'll think of something.
34:54
SPEAKER_00: I'll I'll workshop.
34:55
SPEAKER_03: You don't have to do it right now.
34:57
SPEAKER_00: I got a minute, I'll come up with something.
34:59
SPEAKER_03: But overall, what you said, what are we talking to clients about?
35:01
SPEAKER_03: How do your crops look?
35:02
SPEAKER_03: And they're the clients who were dry all summer and now getting rain.
35:06
SPEAKER_03: It's just like they're almost laughing.
35:09
SPEAKER_03: They could use some higher prices in October.
35:12
SPEAKER_03: I'm talking to them about how much more fuel do you have left.
35:15
SPEAKER_03: Some people call, I have random clients call, new clients, people who subscribe.
35:19
SPEAKER_03: I want to get my fuel cost locked in.
35:22
SPEAKER_03: Where the hell were you when crude oil was$70 this summer, right?
35:27
SPEAKER_03: And our strategic oil reserve was running out in America or record lows.
35:31
SPEAKER_03: And so for some reason, people don't like to buy low.
35:33
SPEAKER_03: They really panic and buy higher.
35:35
SPEAKER_03: In this case, it's not a panic.
35:38
SPEAKER_03: I believe after the close here, after you and I get done, I'm gonna do a premium.
35:41
SPEAKER_03: And folks, if you want to see this premium, I got it right here.
35:44
SPEAKER_03: This is what we're doing:$25 a month,$250 annually.
35:47
SPEAKER_03: But I'm gonna do a premium with a energy trading group out of North Dakota, and they're called Northdale, with one of my old interns, Marcus.
35:56
SPEAKER_03: And Marcus was an intern for AgBull Media and AgBill Trading, but now he's on the other side.
36:03
SPEAKER_03: And he said, every single farmer calls and has the same story.
36:08
SPEAKER_03: Well, I didn't think it was gonna go up here.
36:11
SPEAKER_03: So to me, the way people are set in fertilizers, when like when corn goes from 525 and it's 350 at harvest, and they're like, If I would have known this, I would have sold more.
36:21
SPEAKER_03: Marcus at Northdale and his crew, they're dealing with the exact opposite.
36:25
SPEAKER_03: If I would have known that, you know, you guys texted me all summer when I could have bought red for 325, now it's 525.
36:32
SPEAKER_03: And 325 is still historically high compared to 225, right?
36:37
SPEAKER_03: But things change, and sometimes in agriculture, you got to control the controllables.
36:41
SPEAKER_03: And at this point, and this is really important.
36:44
SPEAKER_03: If you're getting ready for harvest, it's not we're maxed out on refining here in America.
36:50
SPEAKER_03: We can't make any more diesel any faster.
36:54
SPEAKER_03: Remember last week when our very own Jim Wiesmeyer was talking that Joliet Energy Exxon was out in Joliet, right?
37:01
SPEAKER_03: Sometimes these plants go down due to winds or storms or flooding or rain, whatever, electrical outages.
37:07
SPEAKER_03: But we're maxed out.
37:08
SPEAKER_03: And when you when you see what's going on with gas, you could still buy gas in America for$375,$4.
37:14
SPEAKER_03: You take good old-fashioned gas, mix it with some delicious ethanol, and that's how you get to keep that cost down.
37:21
SPEAKER_03: But when it comes to diesel, everybody needs it right now.
37:24
SPEAKER_03: Everything being shipped, every truck, every combine, every tractor.
37:28
SPEAKER_03: Folks are running out.
37:30
SPEAKER_03: So that's why the government's tossing around.
37:31
SPEAKER_03: And if you missed it, go to the AgBull website, our very own Jim Weesmeyer.
37:35
SPEAKER_03: If you don't know, you do now.
37:36
SPEAKER_03: Jim is now officially part of the AgBull team.
37:39
SPEAKER_03: Jim just put out a great special.
37:40
SPEAKER_03: You probably didn't see it there.
37:41
SPEAKER_03: Your your email probably come in in two hours in that hotel group.
37:45
SPEAKER_03: But Jim just put out a diesel special on what trip Trump and Treasury Secretary were you know tossing around for an idea.
37:53
SPEAKER_03: So a lot of noise out there, Davis.
37:55
SPEAKER_03: And I hope you help clear some of that.
37:58
SPEAKER_03: But stay tuned, right?
37:59
SPEAKER_00: Stay tuned.
38:01
SPEAKER_00: I got a couple here for you.
38:02
SPEAKER_00: How about uh success turf instead of poverty grass?
38:06
SPEAKER_00: You like success turf?
38:07
SPEAKER_03: I really like it.
38:07
SPEAKER_03: I didn't know what you're talking about.
38:09
SPEAKER_00: How about tickle tillers?
38:11
SPEAKER_00: Maybe tickle tillers?
38:13
SPEAKER_00: No?
38:13
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
38:14
SPEAKER_00: Is that Beagle?
38:15
SPEAKER_00: Happy Red Winter Wheat.
38:17
SPEAKER_03: Uh no, no, go with the first one.
38:19
SPEAKER_00: A choice you like success turf?
38:20
SPEAKER_00: You like success turf a lot better?
38:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
38:22
SPEAKER_03: That's the new name here.
38:23
SPEAKER_03: Exquack.
38:24
SPEAKER_03: Let's get a trademark.
38:25
SPEAKER_00: Let's get some success turf going out here, everybody.
38:28
SPEAKER_00: All right, dog.
38:29
SPEAKER_03: Prices in wheat out into the carry into multiple years.
38:32
SPEAKER_03: And that doesn't mean it can't go higher.
38:34
SPEAKER_03: It just means for the first time in a long time, hey, you know what one of your choices is next year?
38:39
SPEAKER_03: You got a play to make.
38:40
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
38:40
SPEAKER_03: Or corn or beans.
38:41
SPEAKER_03: Going back to are you selling corn for 2027?
38:45
SPEAKER_03: Folks don't even know what they're going to plant.
38:47
SPEAKER_03: If fertilizer explodes, you're going to see a ton of beans go in, and corn's going to have to buy back acres.
38:52
SPEAKER_03: So there's, and corn's now competing against acres for wheat and other things.
38:56
SPEAKER_03: So the acreage mix is not going to go away.
39:00
SPEAKER_00: Control the controllables.
39:02
SPEAKER_00: You mentioned that earlier.
39:04
SPEAKER_00: Throughout my career, that's been something that I've preached is just tick off as many solidify as many variables as you possibly can.
39:16
SPEAKER_00: But dude, these are these are very uncertain times.
39:19
SPEAKER_00: We I don't I guess we know what the variables are.
39:22
SPEAKER_00: It's just a hard, it's hard to know when to tick those off.
39:26
SPEAKER_00: Do you favor?
39:27
SPEAKER_00: Let's let's talk about the corn folk.
39:30
SPEAKER_00: I mean, do you favor a strategy where maybe you sell a little corn when you buy fertilizer type of a deal and try and offset the two and maybe own that corn back on paper?
39:39
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, people like to do that.
39:40
SPEAKER_03: My my great hedgers say if I just prepaid for fertilizer, I'm gonna sell some corn.
39:46
SPEAKER_03: Some people just cowboy it and go buy the fertilizer cheap and say hell with it.
39:49
SPEAKER_03: I'm gonna sell the corn when after I it depends what state, where you're from, what your APH is.
39:55
SPEAKER_03: You know, we talk a lot about futures and options, but the the layering of them with insurance is where it's at.
40:01
SPEAKER_03: I do believe as years go by, you'll hear a lot less about these futures and options thingies, and you'll hear way more about structured bundled insurance programs, whether they're government-based, private, buying up, and all this other stuff.
40:16
SPEAKER_03: There's a lot of interesting things going on in the insurance world.
40:18
SPEAKER_03: And so cattle.
40:20
SPEAKER_03: Look at LRP, how much that's changed the cattle industry and the overall structure of uh of what risk management looks like in uh cattle and hogs.
40:29
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, it's interesting you brought it up because I did have a story on that just today that I didn't didn't didn't pull into my little news wrap-up there, but I is it Richard Fortas is is taking a good hard look at Fordice.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: Fordice, yeah, four dice four dice the uh at the ARC and the PLC for for some updates there.
40:50
SPEAKER_00: You might be onto something there, buddy.
40:52
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I think so.
40:53
SPEAKER_03: I mean it I often think, will I still have this job in five years?
40:58
SPEAKER_03: I'm not worried about AI replacing it.
41:00
SPEAKER_03: AI is not going to pick up the phone and have an opinion, but the the government can put you out of business any day, right?
41:07
SPEAKER_03: You've seen states doing that during certain illnesses where like you own a bar, well, it's closed, right?
41:14
SPEAKER_03: Why?
41:14
SPEAKER_03: Because we said so.
41:15
SPEAKER_03: So the government can put a whole industry out of business here quickly.
41:21
SPEAKER_00: Let's let's move on.
41:22
SPEAKER_00: You know what?
41:23
SPEAKER_03: Before we before we move on, take these microphones from us, Davis.
41:27
SPEAKER_00: Free speech.
41:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
41:31
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
41:32
SPEAKER_00: If something goes down, brother, we're gonna be the first ones up against the wall.
41:35
SPEAKER_00: That's that's just something that I accept as throughout history that journalists have not done well when there are hostile takeovers of democracies and constitutional republics, much like our beloved constitutional report.
41:49
SPEAKER_03: Am I close to being relieved?
41:51
SPEAKER_03: Because I I I I got that zinny itch.
41:53
SPEAKER_03: I'm ready for a little nicotine.
41:54
SPEAKER_00: You about ready?
41:55
SPEAKER_00: You about ready?
41:55
SPEAKER_03: Okay, you know, that's one of Ella's fake popular songs, nicotine.
42:00
SPEAKER_00: That's right.
42:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
42:01
SPEAKER_00: Ella, what's what is it?
42:03
SPEAKER_00: Ella, Ella Langaloreal.
42:05
SPEAKER_00: What is it?
42:05
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, something like that.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: That sounds right.
42:07
SPEAKER_00: That sounds right.
42:08
SPEAKER_00: Just just give us the closing thoughts.
42:10
SPEAKER_00: Wrap it up.
42:11
SPEAKER_00: Tell us tell us the most important one or two things that you want our viewers to have in mind.
42:18
SPEAKER_00: Maybe, maybe we need to go to bonds here.
42:20
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure, Tommy.
42:21
SPEAKER_00: What is what are the two priorities that you want to leave with us?
42:24
SPEAKER_03: Well, one, I'd like to thank you for watching and listening.
42:26
SPEAKER_03: To we joke around a lot, but you know, it's a long show.
42:29
SPEAKER_03: Davis typically goes 45 minutes a day.
42:32
SPEAKER_03: We really take this serious, and you should too.
42:35
SPEAKER_03: The information is I'm down here at NASVIC in Nashville, and each of us have three to four big screens in front of us.
42:42
SPEAKER_03: There's uh, of course, our sponsor, Trade the News.
42:44
SPEAKER_03: I listen to Trade the News in my ear.
42:46
SPEAKER_03: I have headphones on during the day just listening to Trade the News Audio Squawk service.
42:51
SPEAKER_03: And that's not a cheap promo for him.
42:53
SPEAKER_03: News is moving so fast that if you're not dialed in with it, then you better really be able to depend on someone who's gonna keep you up to speed, right?
43:02
SPEAKER_03: But people think that news comes out, you're gonna be able to tell us and we're gonna be able to react.
43:08
SPEAKER_03: The second news comes out, the markets react.
43:10
SPEAKER_03: So if you're worried about a big market reaction, in my opinion, what would hurt the most the next 30 days is a big break.
43:20
SPEAKER_03: How could we break big?
43:21
SPEAKER_03: The funds are record long or close to record long.
43:24
SPEAKER_03: I think we've got the he's come and it's gonna be great part.
43:28
SPEAKER_03: You know, you can only say it's gonna be great so long before you're like, where's the cake?
43:32
SPEAKER_03: You know, I heard the cake's gonna be great, but we need to actually sell these beans, ship them.
43:36
SPEAKER_03: There's a whole new cost of what it costs to, you know, maybe a grain in America is affordable, but how the heck are you gonna ship it around the world?
43:43
SPEAKER_03: That's something we need to start thinking about.
43:45
SPEAKER_03: Freight rates, shipping, how far do you want to bring a bushel?
43:49
SPEAKER_03: One thing to think about when it comes to a bushel of grain at harvest with diesel this high, do you really want to harvest it, put it in a truck, bring it back to your bin site, dry it, store it, and then take it out and redo all that again minus the drying?
44:04
SPEAKER_03: Wait in line.
44:05
SPEAKER_03: Or should you be like, you know what?
44:07
SPEAKER_03: Things have changed.
44:08
SPEAKER_03: I'm just Bringing it in the town, these are decent prices, and I want to go buy it on the board.
44:12
SPEAKER_03: And I challenge anyone watching or listening to give us a call and say, What are my buy-sell decisions at harvest?
44:18
SPEAKER_03: That's where you should be.
44:19
SPEAKER_03: Tell me as a friend, as a client, as a broker, what's my risk?
44:24
SPEAKER_03: And I could tell you the things we could see, but we'll never be able to tell you the things we didn't know.
44:29
SPEAKER_03: The very reason everyone's tanks are running out of diesel is because they didn't know we're going this level.
44:34
SPEAKER_03: The very reason farmers sell so much grain at harvest was they didn't know the crop was that big, right?
44:39
SPEAKER_03: It's always something in control the controllables and move on, brother.
44:43
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
44:44
SPEAKER_00: 855737 Farm makes the phone ring up there.
44:48
SPEAKER_00: Is that what you're talking about?
44:49
SPEAKER_00: 855737 Farm?
44:51
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
44:51
SPEAKER_00: Is that what you're talking about?
44:53
unknown: Yeah.
44:53
SPEAKER_03: Remember a long time ago I said I ordered speakers that say Agbo Media?
44:57
SPEAKER_00: Well, because and we've reported on it too.
44:59
SPEAKER_00: AM radio is getting some some congressional support.
45:03
SPEAKER_00: We don't wanna we don't want to completely dog out AM radio because it's an important tool there.
45:08
SPEAKER_00: But also, I mean, if you really want to open up your range of options, you gotta have a Bluetooth speaker.
45:13
SPEAKER_00: You gotta have the Bluetooth out there in the barn with you.
45:16
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so we have the Bluetooth speakers.
45:20
SPEAKER_03: Matter of fact, I need to uh pay for those and have those shipped.
45:23
SPEAKER_03: So if you subscribe to premium, just say, I'm subscribing, I'm paying for a year, I want my Bluetooth speaker, and we'll get that out to you.
45:29
SPEAKER_03: But if you want a Bluetooth AgBull Media Speaker to listen to all your favorite podcasts, just not the AgBull team.
45:35
SPEAKER_03: Although we put out a lot of content with Jed in the morning and you in the afternoon, the Bluetooth speakers are in.
45:40
SPEAKER_03: I only have 50.
45:42
SPEAKER_03: So, and I know you want one for sure.
45:44
SPEAKER_03: You'll be a dog with a Bluetooth speaker.
45:46
SPEAKER_03: It even has that clip.
45:47
SPEAKER_03: You could click click it to your blue jeans and stuff, has a magnet.
45:50
SPEAKER_03: I like that.
45:51
SPEAKER_00: I got the little bag for the uh for the dog messes too that it clips to my belt as well, little bags in it, you know.
45:56
SPEAKER_00: And let everyone know your dog's name again just case they're Blaze.
45:59
SPEAKER_00: He's Blaze.
46:00
SPEAKER_00: He's he's at doggy camp this week.
46:02
SPEAKER_00: We usually bring him with us when we travel, but you know, we had a big, big 80th birthday party for my mother-in-law, and the whole famili was gonna be in the house, and they got little kids and phone this tail and stuff.
46:15
SPEAKER_03: Well, good.
46:15
SPEAKER_03: We want to get those speakers out to all new subscribers.
46:18
SPEAKER_03: Hit us up on the website and say I want a speaker, but you're gonna have to give us a little before we can give you a little, brother.
46:23
SPEAKER_00: Ooh, give and take.
46:25
SPEAKER_00: Give and take.
46:26
SPEAKER_00: Like that.
46:27
SPEAKER_00: National Weather Service, heavy to excess, don't go away, Tommy.
46:30
SPEAKER_00: Heavy to excessive rainfall is expected today into Wednesday over New Mexico into far west Texas.
46:36
SPEAKER_00: Flash flooding and debris flows, Tommy, and wildfire burn areas will be possible.
46:42
SPEAKER_00: A strong coastal storm to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday, intensifying toward southern New England this weekend.
46:48
SPEAKER_00: Significant coastal flooding, strong rip currents, and beach erosion from high surf expected.
46:54
SPEAKER_00: Looks like we may get a slight break from the rain, but if we go over to the uh the temperature map, baby, look at this.
47:01
SPEAKER_00: It's blue there northward.
47:03
SPEAKER_00: We're right there in central Iowa, 60 degrees 57 right now.
47:07
SPEAKER_00: I mean, this looks like wrap up some roast beef sandwiches, head for the cab of the combine, and and let's let's get er done as you know, temperatures cool down.
47:18
SPEAKER_00: You you can't help but think of think of harvest.
47:21
SPEAKER_00: Let's go to some items of mild interest.
47:22
SPEAKER_00: Uh-oh.
47:23
SPEAKER_00: And then we're gonna play a little name that we're well, we'll play, we'll play finish the lyric, okay?
47:28
SPEAKER_00: Uh try.
47:29
SPEAKER_03: I'm never good at these things.
47:30
SPEAKER_00: We've got an injunction against committing injustices against you, Tommy.
47:35
SPEAKER_00: So don't worry, it won't be an injustice, but we are gonna have some fun.
47:38
SPEAKER_00: 1903.
47:40
SPEAKER_00: The patent for the ice cream cone mold was granted to Italo Marzione.
47:47
SPEAKER_00: Italo Marzione.
47:49
SPEAKER_00: Several culinary historians link the origin of the ice cream cone to the 1904 St.
47:55
SPEAKER_00: Louis World Fair.
47:56
SPEAKER_00: Look at that.
47:56
SPEAKER_00: Missouri gets it done again.
47:58
SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
48:00
SPEAKER_00: 1958.
48:01
SPEAKER_00: It's the birthday of Joan Jett, American singer and songwriter.
48:05
SPEAKER_00: And in 1960, do we have a picture of him here?
48:07
SPEAKER_00: I believe we do.
48:08
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, 1960, Scott Bayo.
48:11
SPEAKER_03: That's what my brother looked like in high school.
48:13
SPEAKER_03: Now he's missing hair and everything.
48:14
SPEAKER_03: Joe, that looks like your senior picture, right?
48:16
SPEAKER_03: Did you not?
48:18
SPEAKER_00: Well, and let's talk about the number one hit, September 22nd, 1973.
48:24
SPEAKER_00: Is that coming through all right?
48:25
SPEAKER_03: I've got my it's coming through real quick.
48:27
SPEAKER_00: I've got my ag telecaster of ag here ready.
48:30
SPEAKER_00: Let's play a little finish the lyric and see how you do.
48:33
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna make some farm girls shout out if you can't get this.
48:36
SPEAKER_00: The farm girls are gonna freak if you can't get this.
48:39
SPEAKER_00: Are you ready?
48:40
SPEAKER_03: Can I even guess?
48:40
SPEAKER_03: I think I might have heard it just when you strummed it.
48:42
SPEAKER_02: Is it heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend who heard it from a friend that you were messing around?
48:53
SPEAKER_00: Is that the song?
48:54
SPEAKER_00: That's not it.
48:55
SPEAKER_00: That's not it.
48:57
SPEAKER_00: 1973.
48:57
SPEAKER_00: That was Rio Speedwagon.
48:59
SPEAKER_00: That's really good, though.
49:00
SPEAKER_00: That's really good.
49:02
SPEAKER_02: Not me.
49:04
SPEAKER_00: 1973, number one hit on September 22nd by Helen Reddy.
49:09
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna ask you to finish the lyric for me, okay?
49:12
SPEAKER_00: It goes like this Delta down.
49:16
SPEAKER_00: What's that flower you have on?
49:20
SPEAKER_00: Could it be uh what's the rest of that lyric?
49:25
SPEAKER_03: I need to dial a friend or pulling my brother in the stream or something because he knows music, that guy.
49:31
SPEAKER_00: Does Joe know?
49:31
SPEAKER_00: Joe know any clue.
49:33
SPEAKER_00: Is he nodding?
49:33
SPEAKER_00: No, he's shaking his head.
49:34
SPEAKER_00: No, Joe doesn't have to.
49:35
SPEAKER_00: He's shaking you off.
49:36
SPEAKER_00: Could it be a faded rose from days gone by?
49:42
SPEAKER_00: All right, you know this part, right?
49:44
SPEAKER_00: And did I hear you say he was meeting you here today to take you to his mansion in the sky?
49:57
SPEAKER_03: Is this a breakup song?
49:59
SPEAKER_00: Delta Dawn, number one hit to this day in 1973.
50:02
SPEAKER_03: By He did a lot of drugs in the 70s, just full disclosure.
50:06
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's a good song.
50:07
SPEAKER_00: That's a good song.
50:08
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I know the uh the farm girls out there love that one.
50:10
SPEAKER_00: For real.
50:12
SPEAKER_00: They would all gather around the piano and sing along.
50:14
SPEAKER_00: And they'd all all do the sky.
50:15
SPEAKER_00: Ha! They'd all do that.
50:17
SPEAKER_00: I don't know why is a thing.
50:20
SPEAKER_03: It must be like a yeah, high school anthem or something.
50:22
SPEAKER_03: They must just have a little bit.
50:24
SPEAKER_03: A little bit.
50:24
SPEAKER_03: This is before our time.
50:25
SPEAKER_00: Before our time.
50:26
SPEAKER_00: I don't blame you for that.
50:27
SPEAKER_00: No one.
50:27
SPEAKER_03: That's uh if you're watching this and you enjoyed our sh our singing, drop us a comment below.
50:32
SPEAKER_00: Or if you don't, just never mind.
50:34
SPEAKER_00: Don't mention it.
50:35
SPEAKER_00: Just pretend like you weren't watching.
50:37
SPEAKER_00: Let me uh thank you, Tommy Grisopi, the T-Rex of Agbol.
50:41
SPEAKER_00: We appreciate your comments today.
50:43
SPEAKER_00: We'll look forward to hearing your thoughts later on this week.
50:46
SPEAKER_00: Uh, Thursday and Friday, I'll be traveling.
50:48
SPEAKER_00: Tommy will take the reins of Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
50:50
SPEAKER_00: In the meantime, let me uh direct you to Agbol.com.
50:53
SPEAKER_00: Dig deeper with Agbol Intel.
50:55
SPEAKER_00: Take your marketing by the hoes with Agbol.
50:58
SPEAKER_00: Visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm for the details.
51:03
SPEAKER_00: Pick up that Bluetooth speaker straight from Tommy Grassofi and myself.
51:08
SPEAKER_00: It's our pleasure to send you that for a one-year subscription.
51:11
SPEAKER_00: Heck, we'll also throw in the two months for free.
51:13
SPEAKER_00: $250 for a one-year subscription to Agbol.
51:17
SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell will have the morning calls bright and early tomorrow.
51:20
SPEAKER_00: I'll be back again for a look at the markets and the news of the day before I hit the road, headed back to Kansas City, USA.
51:26
SPEAKER_00: Y'all come back tomorrow for more Ag Squawk.