Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Final Estimates for our 2026 Crop Tour Across the Midwest

Transcript

Final Estimates for our 2026 Crop Tour Across the Midwest · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
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• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: This year's crop tour is sponsored by Green Key Ag, a plant nutrition company that takes your fields to their max potential.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Please contact Noah at 712-441-5446.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_02: As a reminder, please click the link in the description below to get signed up for our daily market commentary, giving our market updates every day, and also to follow our uh Twitter profile.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, today is August 7th, and this is the day we've all been waiting for for us to release our final national yield prediction.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_02: Today I got Derek and Kayle with me.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_02: How are you guys doing today?
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_03: Doing pretty good.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, pretty good.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_02: So over the last five days, we've made a trek across the Corn Belt, um, traveling around 2,300 miles across eight different states, looking at crop conditions across each, every state.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: We left Sunday here from Laverne, Minnesota, our home base here, and headed east into Ohio and then back home here last night, Thursday.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um, yeah, like I said, over 2300 miles.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: We started here at Laverne, worked our way south into Sioux County, Iowa, you know, reached into eastern Nebraska, then kind of worked east into Ohio, and then basically made a direct track back home, and all these stops were customer stops.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: So, Kale, what can you kind of tell me about Nebraska as we headed our way through there?
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so one of our first stops to kick off the crop tour, we stopped at a customer's place in Cedar County, Nebraska.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_03: So it'd be northeast Nebraska there, and uh they were quite dry.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_03: We saw a lot of uh burnt up crops around the edges of the fields, as well as some of the lower, kind of lighter ground soils.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_03: It was uh pretty burnt up there.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_03: Uh Cedar County had only received 58% of their average pre-sip over the course of this growing season, so they're definitely struggling on uh moisture there.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_03: And then after that, we uh went down to southeast Nebraska.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_03: That was a York County customer stop there, and uh things looked quite a bit better there.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_03: They uh had received a lot more pre-sip over the course of the growing season.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_03: Crops were a nice, bright, vibrant green.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_03: Things definitely look to be thriving a little bit better.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_03: And uh Nebraska, it's a little it's a little harder to uh rip too much off on their uh average yield just because of how much irrigated cropland they have there.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_03: But uh the dry corn was definitely uh a bit behind and is going to uh bring down their average.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_03: Last year, I believe they were a 185 average for the state of Nebraska, and uh that was near record yields for them, I believe.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, they were a 194 last year.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_02: And we're gonna put them at a 185 this year, and 194, like you said, was tiny record.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_03: Yep.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_03: So we're gonna rip a little bit off of that because of that uh dryness we saw up in northeast Nebraska.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and if you if you look at the drought map, kind of Nebraska quickly, like northeast side, like you said, Cale, there, you know, D3 drought, pretty severe drought, you could say then as we move south into York County, where maybe there is more corn grown, um, saw better crop conditions there.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_02: But as we headed east into Missouri, uh Kale, what what did you kind of take away from that state?
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_03: Uh kind of the opposite.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_03: We saw a lot more moisture after uh talking with a couple of the customers that we have there over in Missouri.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_03: They uh got a lot of moisture early on in the growing season.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_03: So uh we saw a lot of corn setback that had sat in water too long and a lot of nitrogen deficiency in a lot of the fields going through northeast uh Missouri there.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_03: So a lot of nutrient deficient corn across Missouri.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_03: Uh also talking with the farmer farmer, he had mentioned that southern Missouri looked to have a promising crop, so that may help bump up Missouri's yield there a little bit.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_03: But once again, Missouri last year near record yields, and uh things just aren't looking like they're going to be able to quite reach that same level that they were at last year.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: So we ended up pegging Missouri at around a 175 yield there, so that's below uh 186 a record, so quite a bit of below a record there.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_02: So as we moved our way east here, uh skipped into Iowa.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_02: We'll talk about Iowa a little bit later.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_02: And then we started getting into some wetter states, uh Indiana, Illinois, Ohio.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_02: Derek, what what what can you kind of tell me about those states?
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_04: Uh I think the biggest thing we saw was uh differences in moisture throughout the growing season.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_04: You know, Illinois was uh Illinois especially was pretty wet early on.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_04: Um they had a lot of dryness recently here.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_04: Um it's really a lot of differences in maturity, wet at planting.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_04: So some guys got in late, some guys got in early.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_04: So there's a lot of differences in maturity, obviously, in the precipitation over the last 90 days.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_04: I mean, you get through that northern part of Illinois, it's been pretty wet up there.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_04: They've gotten a decent amount of rainfall, but even through central Illinois, especially through central Indiana and out in Ohio where we went, they've been pretty dry for the most part through this growing season.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_02: Also noticed, like we we did do an aerial tour um end of June there, uh beginning of July.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_02: And we noticed on that trip as well, a lot of standing water in Illinois.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_02: And I I really think that's gonna put a damper on that crop.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_02: And a lot of the customers we wet met with agreed on you know, a lot of shallow roots.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but but they did say the crop has made a heck of a turnaround from the from the start they have.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_02: So Illinois overall, we put at a 209, that's below eight bushels below a record, they're at 217.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_02: So took took some off there, and that but overall, could probably will see a pretty good crop there.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_02: Uh Derek, what what what did you kind of see in Indiana or what'd you notice there?
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_04: Um well, Indiana's coming off a record crop last year.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_04: Um, farmers maybe aren't real confident that they'll beat those numbers.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_04: Um early precipitation, kind of same thing.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_04: Early precipitation, and they've been dry since then.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_04: Um, and that's a real flat area of the United States.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_04: They don't maybe have great drainage.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_04: So when they were wet, they were wet.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_04: And then same thing, they've been dry.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_04: Um White County, one of our stops, one of the customer shops we stopped in.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_04: Obviously, they're coming off a record crop.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_04: Uh nitrogen deficiency due to some of these moisture issues has been a big issue that he thought they were dealing with.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: So, right, and kind of the same story as Illinois and Ohio.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_02: You could probably put them all in the same basket.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Gonna be a little bit off last year.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_02: We're gonna say 199 for Indiana, 188 for Ohio.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_02: So nonetheless, still a good crop out there out east, but just you know, beginning of the year really did hurt them.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: But as we traveled north, we sent Mike Minor, Lucas Peters through Minnesota and South Dakota there.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_02: And kind of what they found the takeaway there was eastern South Dakota, but kind of between that Brookeens and Sioux Falls area, I would say, was well off last year.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: So they're coming off a record yield.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: And Mike said he was pulling samples anywhere from 130 bushel corn to 200 bushel of corn.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_02: So we really think you know South Dakota is is gonna take a hit after that.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_02: So we're we're pegging South Dakota around a 152 yield, and that's you know, 19 bushels off last year.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: And if you look at crop ratings as well, um, way below last year, they're over 20%.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_02: And North Dakota, kind of the same thing.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_02: We're we're putting them at a 140 there uh last year, 158, they were a record.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_02: And Minnesota, I thought was pretty interesting, you know, home here.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we we we've really missed out on some rains here around Laverne, southwest Minnesota, kind of south of Pipestone into eastern South Dakota.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_02: I've really missed out on those ample rainfalls.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_02: But overall, uh Minnesota was a record last year at 201 bushel.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_02: And we did have a hole up north last year, if you if anyone remembers that Wilmer, Minnesota area, just too much rain, um, had a lot of drown out spots, and despite that, we still had a record yield.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_02: And this year's a lot different.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_02: Uh a lot of farmers I talked to up there are expecting record yields, and they keep getting rain to finish out this crop.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_02: So despite the little corner in southwest Minnesota, the dryness there that where we might just you know get an average yield, uh, we're gonna put Minnesota at a record yield at 205 bushels to the acre there.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_02: And one state left, the big state of Iowa Kale.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_02: What can you kind of tell me about that state as we traveled through there, as that is your home state, and what kind of yield we put them at?
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so this would be the one state where we took quite a few stops because this seems like everybody wants to know what's Iowa gonna do for yield.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_03: So one of the first stops we uh checked out Sioux County, Iowa.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_03: Things uh look really good.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_03: Uh corn is a nice deep green, everything is looking good.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_03: Uh they are below on precipitation there, but to me it didn't look like the crop was overly stressed.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_03: I know the western side of Iowa has been missing out on some of these key rains.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_02: And they just got a rain this week, right?
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_03: They just received, I think, an inch or so this week.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_03: So there you are, getting them when they need them.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_03: So the crop is it'll start to stress there a little bit, and then they're getting a key rain that's hoping to pull them through some of those drier and hotter periods of time there that we've had throughout this summer.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_03: After that, we took a stop in Audubon County, Iowa.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_03: Kind of same story.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_03: They are below on pre-sip.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_03: Uh I'm looking here, the county has only received 59% of their average rainfall, so they're definitely behind on pre-sip for this growing season.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_03: But once again, things are looking really good over there.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_03: Uh and every time they start to get a little too hot or a little too dry, they're getting a rain.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_03: So they are making it through, and as long as they can keep picking up a tenth or two here or there for the next couple of weeks during this key grain fill period, I think uh things will end up being a pretty good crop for that western side of the state.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_03: After that, we uh traveled more towards central Iowa where we took a stop in Dallas County, Iowa.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_03: And uh here I would say things have been a little bit wetter.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_03: They've picked up on a little bit more rain.
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_03: And uh if looking at the drought map, if Kate could pull that up here, you can see central Iowa and then onward, eastward.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_03: Things have been there's been ample rain across this across the state there.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_03: So things there are looking pretty good.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_03: Uh then we moved to the eastern side of the state once again.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_03: Everything is looking really good.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_03: They've had a little bit too much pre-sip, some stuff has been sent in a little bit too much moisture.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_03: You know, you get down on some of your bottoms and down the bottom of the hills and along the edges of the fields, you have some yellow corn, some nitrogen deficiency through there.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_03: But other than that, everything is looking really good on the eastern side of the state.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_02: And Cale, so after after hearing all that, what what kind of do you think we should peg Iowa for a yield here?
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_03: So in 2024, we had a record yield of 211 bushels.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_03: Last year, I think we were at 210 bushels to the acre.
• 11:30
  SPEAKER_03: And I think this year, with the way things are coming along, I see no reason why we couldn't push 220 bushels to the acre here.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_03: And uh really the moral of the story here is last year we saw a lot of southern rust.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_03: There was a lot of disease going across the state of Iowa, and your guys that normally only did one passive fungicide or didn't do fungicide, that really killed them.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_03: You know, you saw guys that were getting 30 bushels knocked off of their average because of how much disease there was.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_03: So I think with the disease pressure that we're seeing right now across the state of Iowa, things are sitting really well.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: So the take home there, folks, I would say for our crop tour of the last five days, I would say.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_02: So out west, a little too dry.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_02: The Dakotas, Nebraska's, we're gonna take some yield off there.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_02: Out east, too wet, you know, completely different story.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_02: They're gonna take a few bushels off there, and right in the center, Minnesota, Iowa, kind of in the middle of both of those extremes, sitting pretty good.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_02: So our national yield will end up, we're gonna predict a 184 yield.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_02: Um, how that compares to any private other analyst?
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_02: We got Stonex at a 14 184.8 and another private analyst was a 181.28.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_02: And just reminder, record yield last year was 186.5.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: And you just kind of look at the balance sheet, how yields are really gonna affect price and our carryout.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so like a trend line yield, a 183, Kate.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_02: If you want to pull up the balance sheet there.
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so if if you look at a trend line yield, we're sitting at right now, the 183 on the left side, we're sitting at a 1.79 bushel bear carry out.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: And if you you know add a couple bushels to a 185, it puts us around a 2 billion bushel carry out um similar to this year.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_02: For I really think for price to really rally hard, I think you need to get below that 10% stocks to use ratio.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_02: And you can see there in the middle column is that 181.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's kind of the magic number we're gonna see for prices to really rally hard.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_02: And most of the private analysts I'm seeing are are coming in pretty near trends.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_02: So just a reminder, we do have an August Wasser report there next week, and that normally kind of sets up the marketing here here going forward, and historically, normally a pretty um market-moving report.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_02: And if you just kind of look at a chart of D-scorn, really been consolidating this week around that 460 level, seems to find pretty good support around there.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_02: So uh I would accept the um expect the count consolidation to continue until this report here Wednesday.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but for today that that's kind of all we had for this podcast.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_02: Do you guys have any anything else to add or on on this crop tour?
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_03: No, it was no it was a good time.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, well, thanks for watching everyone today.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um, just a reminder please follow along on her crop tour and look back at her previous posts on Twitter or YouTube on her previous videos, uh, recapping each day.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for joining today.