Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 69: 5/12 From Drought to Downpours? What the Weather 20/20 Model Predicts with Gary Lezak

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69: 5/12 From Drought to Downpours? What the Weather 20/20 Model Predicts with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  Happy Monday. Welcome to another episode of
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  the Cattle USA Daily podcast. Today we are again bringing you
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  guys your Monday weather report with Gary Lazak and the Weather
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  2020 team. We are talking all things today.
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  We we're just kind of a little bit all over the place.
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  We talk drought, we talk rain, we talk like all the things,
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  everything from this next week into the next few months, what
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  we are going to be seeing as far as the weather trends and
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  patterns go. So without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and jump into this convo with Gary and hear it straight
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  from him. Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily
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  Podcast, your go to source for the latest livestock markets,
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  industry insights and the updates shaping agriculture
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  today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, Hello, Happy Friday.
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  Welcome to the podcast. It's another beautiful day.
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  It's Friday. Even though we're.
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  Broadcast is shining Yes, exactly.
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  The sun is shining here in Kansas.
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  It is a gorgeous day. I have my outside office set up
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  today. I like take a little chair out
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  there and I move a little. I actually my desk is my
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  husband's Blackstone grill with a cover on it.
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  He's totally going to listen to this podcast.
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  He's going to be like you What? But my desk is my husband's
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  Blackstone grill, and I set up a chair out there and I have been
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  baking in the sun all day and it's glorious.
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  Amazing that. That is incredible.
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  I love it. So anyway, I, I've got a lot of
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  things going through my head right now.
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  The, the one I was going to say, you say it's beautiful blue sky,
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  right? It's absolutely gorgeous because
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  we are in the blue sky part of the pattern right now.
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  Do you remember I told you this a few weeks ago?
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  You remember it? I do.
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  We're. Moving into the blue sky part of
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  the pattern, and shockingly, it's blue sky for the next.
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  What a who would have thought? It's cycle.
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  The pattern cycling is not just the storm systems that we're
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  predicting, but also the blue sky.
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  And how old are you again? I am 23, Gary.
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  And I'm 63. Did you what's amazing?
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  Did you know what? Do you know what the perfect age
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  is? What's the perfect age?
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  28 you're five years from perfection.
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  It's. A pretty perfect right now.
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  You're pretty perfect, but you will be very perfect in five
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  years. So what happens is our
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  biorhythms cross and this is in general, almost universally
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  though people. So you have your mental
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  biorhythm and, and at 27 you're like here at 28, it's like way
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  up here. OK, so between now and 28 you're
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  going to be, you're, you're getting wiser and wiser and
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  wiser and physically you're getting stronger and stronger
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  and stronger. That's why athletes are at their
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  peak at 282930. At 30 to 36, you start to to
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  fade a little bit physically. So at 36, usually athletes are
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  done. And then for me at 63, I'm
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  becoming a baby again, gradually.
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  OK, it's true, but I'm still not there.
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  He's mentally I'm strong, but physically?
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  In. Good shape.
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  So I'm probably close to 28, but just know when you're 28, your
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  buyer wythens cross at that peak and everyone tends to be at
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  their absolute peak mentally and physically combined.
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  And that's why athletes are a perfect example why they're so
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  good at 282930 and they fade at 36.
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  Now at 63, you can still maintain a level of of
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  credibility that I have, but shoot, you're five years from
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  perfection. I can't wait to see this happen.
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  You're amazing. Me neither.
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  Oh my gosh, think of I mean, I'm already pretty perfect at 23.
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  Think of how like perfect I'm going to be at 28.
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  What can I say? I.
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  Know well that's that's I'd love your confidence.
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  Showstopper, showstopper. I will say though, yeah, you
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  live in Colorado in high elevation.
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  If you and I went on a hike together, right now I am
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  physically fit. Like I am a fit individual but
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  hiking and high elevation for me.
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  Most humbling experience. Wow, it is.
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  I know it gets to you. It gets to you.
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  So humbling I'm. Like why is the air spicy?
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  It hurts to breathe. Why?
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  When you're hiking with a friend at 10,000 feet and you're having
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  a conversation with them, you have to like after 5 minutes to
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  go, hey, listen, I can't talk. Yeah, because you're not getting
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  enough oxygen. Yeah.
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  Yeah, it's it's a humbling experience speaking like
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  proceeding. Of elevation.
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  When you go up to that elevation, it's easier to snow.
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  And this week, Sunny and Rainbow and I took an 11 minute drive
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  from our studio right here and it was snowing like crazy. 6
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  inches of snow had fallen and I posted a video that you've got
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  to see. I'll have to.
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  Go see it, it's on my social media and the dogs just love it.
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  So they went running around in the snow.
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  But that storm was predicted by using the LRC.
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  It was literally the storm we expected for this week.
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  Not saying we told you so, but we told you so.
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  We told you it was going to happen.
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  Yeah, and it happened. Exactly.
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  I mean, who would have thunk it? Oh wait, Gary did.
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  The LRC Yeah, this this was the Blizzard part of the pattern.
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  The January 5th Blizzard, January 5th I was in a snowstorm
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  in Kansas City and May the 5th I was in a snowstorm in Colorado.
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  It was that part of the pattern that came cycling through that
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  just passed through last week. And so now we, I think we can
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  put snow to rest here in Colorado.
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  It's going to be a big warm up. But just know that is a perfect
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  example that what we've been discussing every single week
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  here on his Cattle USA podcast that we had predicted this, this
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  January 5th storm, the pattern that produced that just came
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  through and did produce in Kansas City.
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  All it did was produce a little bit of rain, but it rained and
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  it's, it's fascinating. It is fascinating.
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  I love it. Well, Gary, Speaking of the
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  weather, what, what are we? What's happening?
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  What's going on with the weather?
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  What are we going to talk about today?
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  Well, now that we've established the pattern is right on schedule
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  this past week, it continues. Now what happens, the jet stream
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  is going to gradually weaken as we go through the end of May,
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  June 1st of summer. Why does summer even exist
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  because the jet stream weakened so much, The judgment is caused
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  by temperature contrast. And so when the contrast during
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  January 5th storm that we just talked about might be -50 in
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  Canada and 90 in Mexico for 140° contrast during the summer, as
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  soon as it's July, it's 70 in Canada and 110 in Mexico or the
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  deserts of the Southwest, that's 40.
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  So 140° contrast during the winter, 40 during the summer.
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  The jet stream is created by that contrast.
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  Believe it or not, it's called the thermal wind.
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  It's a very complex concept, but that thermal wind caused it.
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  So when the summer version of the jet stream is weaker and it
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  shifts farther north, so the jet stream is in the process of
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  doing that now and it takes until about the first day of
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  summer before tornado season finally ends.
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  So there's going to still be more tornado threats as we go
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  towards the end of May. One of them is May 24th to 30th.
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  We're expecting a pretty big setup for severe weather and
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  then in the first week or 10 days of June or so.
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  But it'll be that that version of it just know the patterns
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  weakening, but in still cycling regularly for what we have
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  discussed. If you've been listening from
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  week to week, what we have discussed on this podcast is a
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  phase one of the weather pattern and a phase two of the weather
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  pattern. A phase one of the weather
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  pattern has been the wet one for most of the plains into the Corn
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  Belt. And Phase 2 is more northwest
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  flow and northwest flow during June sometimes can produce
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  thunderstorms too dry during the winter, but during June
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  thunderstorms could form in the Dakotas and right S into
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  Nebraska and Kansas. We have to watch for that, but
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  it's this phase one that's produced most of the rain and
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  that's coming back in the last week of May and the first two
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  weeks of June. For that three-week stretch
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  before the jet stream gets too weak, we will likely have a
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  rather wet period of time across many areas.
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  And a lot of farmers have been getting in their crops and
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  planting has been rather ideal. There's been just enough
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  moisture. So you had the crops and then it
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  rained on top of that. Now you're going to need more
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  rain. Just know it's time for the last
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  week of May, first two weeks of June and I have about a 75 to
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  80% confidence level that it's going to produce in most areas.
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  You know, 123 inches of rain, maybe 345 inches of rain,
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  possibly too much in a few spots that is coming.
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  So I just wanted you to know that.
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  That's very important to know 1000% is here in Northeast
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  Kansas. We've been blessed to be getting
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  a pretty decent amount of rain so far.
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  And as long as that trend keeps on going, then I'm a happy
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  camper. But I know we have a lot of
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  people out West who are in those drought regions that are like,
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  please send some our way. We, we desperately need it.
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  How's our drought outlook looking, Gary?
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• 9:47
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  It's continued to shrink slightly, but out across western
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  South Dakota, western Nebraska in the eastern Wyoming area is
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  this next three-week stretch from late May into the first
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  half of June is going to be fascinating.
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  I think between now and then it's going to be fascinating
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  because there's some chances showing up.
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  Western Kansas, southern Kansas, they got hit this past week.
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  There's a lot of rain. So the, so for out there, the
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  drought index is probably going to go down to to either either
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  an abnormally dry level or even no drought at all.
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  So that's what just happened with this latest storm, the
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  Blizzard part of the pattern that just cycled through.
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  So it's looking better. There's going to be drought
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  stress in a few spots, though. So as we've talked about, even
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  in extremely wet years, the flood of 93, there was an
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  extremely wet year that was really massive flood and I was
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  alive then. You were not.
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  This is not. It wasn't even a thought then.
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  But let me just tell you, the rivers rose so high.
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  The Missouri and the Mississippi River was ridiculous, and the
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  Kansas River too. But as as wet as it was, there
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  was a shadow. And you go into southern Kansas,
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  it was extremely dry, while it was extremely wet not too far
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  away. Even when you take a whole state
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  of Kansas, even if it's a wet year, there are pockets,
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  counties that just stay dry. So we'll be looking for those in
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  the next few weeks. Very, very important information
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  as we go into the next week, two weeks, month, what?
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  What other highlights are we seeing?
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  What other things do we need to chat about today?
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  There's a, there's a in April, there was another storm that's
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  due in this coming up weekend coming up.
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  So we got to look for that. There could be a severe weather
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  outbreak and plus there's some bad thunderstorms That would be,
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  you know, middle of this month, 16th, 17th, 18th is when it's
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  due. So look for that and then we'll
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  look for that other wetter phase of the pattern due after that.
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  Perfect, amazing, such great things.
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  All, all the highlights, all the things.
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  And for all of you listeners out there, if you listen to this
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  every single week religiously and you're like Gary's info that
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  he's bringing is amazing. I just need to tell you, I got
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  to put a plug in real quick, Gary, like you have got to get
• 12:35
  onto the Weather 2020 and go check it out.
• 12:37
  Because like if you think the things that Gary's telling you
• 12:39
  just like in the 10 minutes that we talk on this podcast once a
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  week is great. Then like go look at his
• 12:44
  brainchild on Weather 2020 and just see all the things that it
• 12:50
  can do and tell you daily and all.
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  Like just the granular details that you can get down into on
• 12:56
  long term weather prediction. It is amazing.
• 12:58
  We have a Cattle USA partnership link down in the show notes for
• 13:01
  you guys so that you can check that out and get your hands on
• 13:04
  it yourselves because it is chef's kiss.
• 13:07
  It's amazing, it really is. Yeah, the Weather 2020 dashboard
• 13:11
  is something every farmer should have.
• 13:13
  You can have this tool that you get a week by week or a day by
• 13:16
  day out. Like all the way to the end of
• 13:17
  the year. Yes, an outlook to the end of
• 13:20
  the year right now, although it's only accurate through
• 13:22
  October 1st. We'll explain that in another
• 13:24
  podcast. It'll be accurate eventually
• 13:26
  again then, but between now and through the growing season,
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  we're gold. We are golden.
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  Well, Gary, thank you for your time today.
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  As always on the podcast, we appreciate your knowledge and
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  just everything that you bring to us.
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  And I appreciate the energy boost that I get every single
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  Friday talking to you. So as always, to all of our
• 13:47
  listeners out there, make sure you like subscribe, rate review,
• 13:50
  share with a friend. We always appreciate it.
• 13:52
  And we hope you guys have a great Monday and that our Friday
• 13:55
  energy is kind of pushing off on to you and you're able to start
• 13:58
  your week off on a great note. And as always, we'll see all
• 14:01
  tomorrow on another episode. Have a good one guys.