Latest / 3 Guys, 6 Balls NFL Podcast / Is Caleb Williams Overhyped Or Underhyped?, Are The Jets Better Off With Justin Fields Than They Were With Aaron Rodgers?, & NFL Players Who Could Have Breakout Seasons

Transcript

Is Caleb Williams Overhyped Or Underhyped?, Are The Jets Better Off With Justin Fields Than They Were With Aaron Rodgers?, & NFL Players Who Could Have Breakout Seasons · 3 Guys, 6 Balls NFL Podcast

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  3 lifelong friends, 6 trusty balls and endless NFL ticks.
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  Welcome to three guys 6 balls NFL podcast.
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  Welcome to episode 18 of three guys 6 balls NFL podcast.
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  To start the show I want to give a shout out to Packers fans
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  because this last week we put out a post on social media of if
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  Jordan Love is underrated or overrated.
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  And normally when we post a social media post on X, we get
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  like 1002 thousand views. Maybe on this specific post
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  after I posted it in Packers Twitter, they blew it up, they
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  commented on it, they defended their guy.
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  We got 13,000 views on that post.
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  Just got to give a shout out to Packers fans for showing up for
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  their team and for their quarterback.
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  We appreciate you guys not during the season, we hate you
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  guys during the season, but right now we appreciate you.
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  So just wanted to give a shout out the Packers fans.
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  What were the results? Pretty much everybody says he's
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  underrated. There's a few people that says
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  he's overrated, but the majority of Packers fans say he's
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  underrated. So yeah, they had a lot to say
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  to to defend their quarterback. So that was cool to see them
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  show up for their team. And then the next thing is we
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  also posted our lists of top five wide receiver duos on all
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  of our social media platforms. And the result is, is that we
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  all suck. All of us suck.
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  So yeah, it's the Internet. Of course we do.
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  Yeah, there was people who hated that Avery put Tyree Kill and
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  Jalen Waddle on his list. There was people that said they
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  hated that Will didn't put Justin Jefferson and Jordan
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  Addison on his list. One guy said Will was smoking
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  crack. There's other people who said my
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  list sucked. That's just mean.
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  It's not untrue, at least. Yeah, yeah.
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  Was it just calling it as it is? If I was smoking crack, I would
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  not be this fat. OK, let's let's be real about
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  it, I would not be this fat if I was smoking crack.
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  If I was so crack and I still would like this, I'd be pissed.
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  I wouldn't be here. I'd be.
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  I'd be. Yeah.
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  Where's the benefit? Where's the benefit in that?
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  Yeah, so apparently we just all sucked.
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  So there was no like overwhelming winner with our
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  lists. There was something about each
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  of our lists that everybody hated.
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  So we appreciate all you guys. It it, it drives us that we piss
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  you guys off on social media. It doesn't make us want to be
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  better. It just makes us want to
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  continue to piss you off. So thank you for posting on our
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  social media posts. And if you want to sponsor the
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  show, we'll piss on you too. I will, all right.
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  So to get our show started, we're going to do something
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  similar to what we did the last week.
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  So we're going to start off with a game of overrated or
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  underrated, but this time it's going to have a little bit of A
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  twist somewhere in there. So to get started though, so
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  it's just going to be normal just to get started.
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  So overrated or underrated? Panthers running back Tuba
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  Hubbard. Underrated.
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  But not to Panthers fans. They've got him straight rated,
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  maybe even overrated. Why do you say that?
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  Because I know some Panthers fans and they think he's
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  probably better than he is. Or talk about him like he's
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  going to be, you know, Adrian Peterson this next season.
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  I'm going to go with overrated, actually.
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  And he falls into the same thing as Breece Hall from The Jets.
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  He had a breakout fantasy year and then now everybody just
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  expects him to maintain that. They think he's running back one
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  material on the three. Again, this is a fantasy
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  football take here. They think he's running back one
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  material on a fantasy football football team and then he
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  underperforms every single year. I mean, last year was his most
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  touchdowns ever with 10. Besides that, he's had no more
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  than five in the season and 10 touchdowns.
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  That's not, I'm not knocking that 1200 yards, 10 touchdowns.
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  I think he just has higher expectations.
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  And so that that to me makes him overrated.
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  I like that he's been progressing.
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  I mean, he only started actually.
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  I don't know what the deal is about the 22 season.
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  I don't know who was starting ahead of him.
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  I just like that he's been improving.
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  I think that especially for rookies, I mean, I'm, I always
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  usually compare it to DAC and Zeke when they first got in the
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  league because I remember telling Joel, I don't remember
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  if you're in college back then or what, but I just remember
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  like how great of a season statistically both of them had
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  as rookies and then they lost I think in the first or second
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  round of the playoffs. And then remember thinking, I
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  was like most people probably think, oh man, these guys are
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  just rookies, but I'm looking at their stats and I'm like,
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  they're not going to do as well next year.
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  Like even if they were like a consistent like Pro Bowl player,
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  they would have been hard to replicate that year.
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  Plus you're going into your sophomore slump.
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  But when I see a rookie that's just kind of increasing or
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  definitely not regressing, I think that's a really good sign.
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  So I'm looking at his stats here from his, his game by game
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  stats. And you know, Will's not wrong
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  that he's overrated because he had, let's see, 1234 games all
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  season where he had 100 rushing yards.
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  But to be fair to him as well, he he did have seven games where
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  he had 15 or less carries. So because the Panthers were
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  losing all the time, they weren't running the ball as
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  much. So he never really had the
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  chance to like build up his momentum throughout the game.
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  But you can see like some of these games, he's got 21
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  carries. He had 114 yards, 28 carries.
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  He had 153 yards, 25 carries, he had 152 yards.
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  So Will's not wrong, but he he just didn't really get that
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  opportunity as much as some other running backs because the
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  Panthers are just, they were just bad and so they just didn't
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  have the opportunity to run the ball as much.
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  Right, and that's that would be my next thing is that First off,
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  you should never have pretty much any Panthers player in a
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  starting spot on your fantasy team just in general.
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  But because you place the Panthers, he doesn't get the
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  same opportunities just to run the ball.
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  And it's not like he's utilized like Christian McCaffrey was.
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  His receiving stats are not even close to the same.
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  Doesn't even have 1000 yards receiving his whole career.
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  But he needs a running back. He's not a receiver.
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  So pretty consistent at about 170 yard, earn 70 receiving
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  yards per season. He's not utilized the same way
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  because he's not the same style of back.
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  And the Panthers really need that all around back who can
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  receive and and run because they they have to throw the ball a
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  lot more because they're losing all the time.
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  So will it sounds like you want to take Bryce Young as your as
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  our starting quarterback on your fantasy team this year?
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  No, Respectfully, of course. OK, well Speaking of
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  quarterbacks, this is where the twist comes into this game.
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  So instead of doing an underrated or overrated, the
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  next one is going to be overhyped or under hyped.
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  So this is Bears quarterback Caleb Williams.
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  Is he overhyped or under hyped? I think it depends what part of
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  the country you live in. I don't think I've heard much
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  about him from people since he's been drafted.
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  I don't hear much talk about, I mean, I'll see him on ESPN and
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  stuff. I don't think he's overhyped.
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  I think he had a solid, especially considering he was
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  sacked. Would we say 68 times?
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  68. Considering that, I mean, he did
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  fairly well. I mean, I don't know how much
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  the line is a line is affect. I mean, obviously, I mean it
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  affects the sacks, but I mean, if you look at like bow necks, I
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  mean, he had more yards, more touchdowns, more interceptions.
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  So it's one of those things where like, I mean, he only had
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  six interceptions, twice as many.
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  Yeah. I don't know.
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  I think for a top pick first season being sacked 68 times, I
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  don't think that that's necessarily a disappointment.
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  Doesn't guarantee anything. Doesn't mean anything really.
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  Right. He lost towards 500 yards in
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  sack yardage. That's crazy.
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  Jeez, wasn't it like 466 four? 166 yards.
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  So a lot of running backs that have a like 500 yards.
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  Percentage of time sacked when attempting to pass.
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  So his sack percentage was 10.79%.
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  One of every 10 passes. This dude was getting sacked.
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  That's crazy. I actually, I'm going to go with
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  the opposite. I'm going to go with overhyped.
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  Coming into the league, he was a huge prospect.
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  Oh, Caleb Williams this, Caleb Williams that.
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  We went to USC and say, oh man, this guy's going to tear up the
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  PAC 12. They don't know what's coming
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  for him. And then he didn't.
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  And then USC was mediocre and it just never came through.
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  And then he went to the Bears. Oh man, he's going to tear up
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  the league number #1 right, right.
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  Yeah, yeah, I see. I know some things.
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  Number one pick to the to the Bears, he's going to tear up the
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  league. They're going to be so great.
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  And then the Bears let him down. Whether it was bad play calling,
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  bad staffing, under confident and throwing the ball because
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  it's not college, you're just not going to get the open
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  receiver. And that's why he was sacked 68
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  times because you just don't get the same openings in high school
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  in in the NFL versus in college. And so maybe, maybe it does come
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  down to play calling and it was just bad play calling, but that
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  the hype level never dropped. It was like, man, he's doing
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  he's going to be so good. Oh, Kayla Williams, I can't
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  believe they're letting him down like this.
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  I can't believe the team is not doing more to help him out.
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  And it was a lot of he's still great.
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  The team is the bad thing. And even come into this year,
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  it's oh, they're new and improved offensive line.
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  They've got all these weapons, they've got this, they've got
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  that. They've got Ben Johnson.
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  This is going to be the best. And so it's just I every watch
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  out for the bears. The problem is, is that they
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  still don't threaten anybody. These are like, these are like
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  sun bears, not like actual brown bears.
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  I don't know, I don't think how golden bears either.
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  Like small little sun bears. Little panda bears out there,
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  endangered, I think. I think Caleb Williams, I mean,
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  it is a little bit of that thing with like, what's his name,
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  Mitch Drubisky? I mean, he only had that one
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  season, but it was one of those things where I feel like some of
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  that hype just sticks and it's hard to shake kind of the same
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  way with some like negatives of you do something wrong.
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  It gets, you know, recorded on camera, goes viral.
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  Like everyone now knows he was that.
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  And I think that this is just one of those things.
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  I mean, his first season at USA, he did really, really good.
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  And I think that's what really got that conversation started.
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  But at that point, you've got so much hype and everyone's waiting
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  for you at the next level that it doesn't really matter how
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  well you do the next season. Like that next season is a
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  formality. Like unless you get seriously
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  hurt or really regress, like you're kind of up there.
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  It's kind of like, you know, the last I don't like the bowl game.
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  If you didn't make the championship and you're planning
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  on getting drafted, you're like, I don't need I can be here, but
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  I'm not trying. I'm not going to sacrifice my
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  body, that's for sure. But I think it's one of those
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  things where the Bears kind of like the Browns.
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  And I know I'm partial. I just think the Browns is kind
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  of like the same thing with the the Browns, the Bears.
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  I don't like either of them. It's where people is where
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  players go to die. And I feel like everyone in just
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  a black hole just sucks you in. You don't hear anything about it
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  later. You just find out their top
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  quarterbacks on a different team.
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  He's a shell of who he once was. We have to find ourselves
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  comparing current starters to previous starters of the same
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  team that will be compared against Troy Aikman, Jordan
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  loves. I always need to compare against
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  Brett Favre for Aaron Rodgers. I'm working at all time great
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  Bears quarterbacks. I hate what we talked about this
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  for. Jay Cutler.
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  By 9000 yards, Jay Cutler leads all time Bears passing record by
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  9000 yards. In 102 games he threw 23,443
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  yards. Next is Sid Luckman.
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  We all remember that guy from 1939 to 1950 threw for back when
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  back when throwing a forward pass was against the rules.
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  If it if it was incomplete, it was a turnover.
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  Like you couldn't even throw a pass anymore.
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  And he threw for 14,000 and then goes to Jim Harbaugh, Bears
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  legend, and then Jim McMahon, actual Bears legend.
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  And then he goes to another than Mitch Trubisky is fifth on the
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  all time Bears passing. That list is disgusting. 10,609.
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  Assuming that they should have some stellar running backs,
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  right? Because they clearly have never.
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  They had Walter by passing the ball.
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  They did have. Like beyond that, like who else
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  is? I mean, I, I just feel like,
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  yeah, we don't ever pass this ball.
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  Then you must run the hell out of that ball.
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  No, the Bears team has been lifted by their defense.
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  It's the opposite of the Bengals.
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  This Bears team has been lifted by their defense.
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  Brian Urlacher. Bears teams of old are defense,
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  defense, defense and and that's all they've ever been.
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  Caleb Williams, in his one season, 17 games as a Bears
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  quarterback, ranks 20 seconds all time on the passing list.
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  It took 3500 yards to crack the top 25.
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  If he repeats that, he will be a top ten Bears passing
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  quarterback. Top 10.
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  He will be. If he throws another 3500 yards,
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  it'll give him 7000 yards. He will be #10 he will replace
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  Justin Fields in the top ten. And yes, Justin Fields is number
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  10 all time. Bears pass.
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  OK, OK. So this actually leads perfectly
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  into what I have to say about Caleb Withers.
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  So I I think he's overhyped. I'm also going to go with Caleb
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  Williams is overhyped because you have this guy who you know
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  in college, he's already project before he's even eligible to go
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  to the NFL draft. He's projected as the number one
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  pick. He does pretty well in college
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  and then he gets drafted number one overall by the Bears.
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  He gets compared to Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees and Josh
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  Allen or some of the names that I saw him compared to.
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  And the Bears are are desperate for a 4000 yard passer.
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  They have never had a 4000 yard passer in the history of their
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  franchise. So Caleb Williams gets drafted
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  number one overall and the Bears, all the Bears fans think
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  this is the guy that's going to get it done.
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  This is the guy. And then he comes in his rookie
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  season and he throws for just over 3500 passing yards, 20
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  touchdowns, 6 interceptions. He has 400 rushing yards, but he
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  didn't have a single rushing touchdown and he gets sacked 6-8
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  times like we already talked about.
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  And then, you know, the Bears make all these moves this
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  offseason to get a better offensive line.
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  They get some weapons in the draft for Caleb Williams.
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  They have Ben Johnson, like Will mentioned, and Bears fans are
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  acting like he's going to be a top five quarterback in his
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  second season in the league. I just don't see a way where
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  he's going to be better than Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or
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  Joe Burrow or any of those guys. I don't see how Caleb Williams
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  is going to be better than those guys in his second season.
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  So to me, I feel like just because Bears fans are hyping
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  him up to be that first guy to get 4000 yards, I feel like he's
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  being over hyped. Well, we were talking earlier
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  about we were looking at the video, the 1213 minute video of
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  him getting sacked the whole season.
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  It was a lot. And that's from a viewer
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  watching a video, not actually being in it, but 68 times and a
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  lot of it. We were talking, it wasn't like
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  it was something we weren't saying, oh man, this guy's line
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  sucks. He's getting clobbered.
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  Most of it was like whether he can't find his receiver, whether
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  he's just, you know, freezing up, whether he doesn't know
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  really where to go. I think that is one of those
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  small things. It's not, I mean, it's small as
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  far as just, I mean, you got to put in a lot of work.
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  But I think if he can figure out how to get the ball out of his
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  hands quicker and have a little bit more pocket awareness.
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  I mean, that was his first season.
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  I mean, if, if he tightens that up, like to the level of any
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  above average quarterback, I feel like those stats could
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  absolutely swing in a positive direction.
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  It wasn't like he was out there just throwing picks, losing his
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  composure. It was more just like holding on
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  to the ball. I mean, so many of those plays,
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  it was like, dude, I mean, I'm, I'm watching this from the
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  perspective of a someone who has seen other great quarterbacks
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  play. Not like I'm a coach, not like I
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  know that. I mean, most of that looked like
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  he was farming sacks, like just holding onto it and just kind of
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  running into a defensive player. Or it's like, OK, you're not.
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  I mean, you're under pressure, but not an exorbitant amount of
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  pressure. This isn't this is normal.
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  So I feel like it's one of those things where if he can't get
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  past that, then yeah, it's he's probably just a bus and isn't
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  going to going to be washed up. But if he can get past that,
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  which seems like a normal thing that you should be able to do,
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  especially now after a full seasons past, you've, you know,
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  got coaching staff that hopefully have watched that same
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  video or at least understand the issue here and can get that ball
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  out of his hands quicker. I think that shifts a lot.
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  I think having 68 sacks, being pressured that much and only
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  throwing 6 picks is impressive. Yeah, that's that's a good
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  point, actually. And to your point, Avery, it's
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  not that I don't think Caleb Williams is going to get better.
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  I do think he's going to get better.
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  I think he has tons of potential.
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  But I just don't like that Bears fans are putting in.
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  Like they make him seem like he's going to be a top five
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  quarterback this season, which to me, that's why I think he's
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  overhyped. Like he has the potential to do
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  it, but I got to see it first. Like, you can't just tell me
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  that after he has that season, his rookie year.
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  I'll also say if he can pull that out in Chicago, that is
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  impressive. That's it's a little bit of
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  putting the team putting the friggin city on your back.
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  Because if we're talking about Justin Fields as top ten
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  quarterback embarrassed history. I was like, OK, this makes it
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  sound like they're a new franchise.
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  They just have never had a quarterback.
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  They just cannot get themselves out of this.
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  So if he can put them in a playoff position, get sacked
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  half as many times, I think naturally that just leads to
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  just more production or the very least, you know, you got some
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  running game that can, you know, step it up.
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  I mean, not throwing for over 4000.
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  I mean, if you're, you know, what was it like 500 yards away?
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  I mean, not throwing picks is huge.
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  Not losing 500 yards. You know, you basically have
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  negative running back numbers on your stat sheet.
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  The problems don't seem insurmountable.
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  It seems like a like a thing that's kind of just like, oh,
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  it's switched. I got it.
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  Same deal as either. You're playing a video game,
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  you're playing a sport, and you finally just kind of wrap your
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  head around the rules and the strategy.
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  Okay, now I can stop thinking about it and just do it because
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  I've gotten it down. And that's that's what I think
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  the situation is here. But I hate saying it because I
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  don't like the Bears. To give Caleb Williams some
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  credit with Avery. Pause, pause.
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  We keep saying he's got 6 interceptions, right?
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  He also had five lost fumbles. So he is.
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  He didn't have the opportunity to throw more interceptions
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  because he was under so much pressure.
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  He was getting sacked so often. He fumbled the ball 10 times and
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  lost five of them. So really he had 11 turnovers.
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  Now it was not all interceptions, but again, he
• 18:38
  didn't have the opportunity to throw the ball.
• 18:40
  Also, you commented on his rushing yards.
• 18:42
  He had 406, 66 negative yards for for being sacked and he had
• 18:47
  489 rushing yards. So really he had what, 23
• 18:51
  rushing yards at a net yardage? 23 rushing yards at a net
• 18:56
  yardage and then five losses like that, did they not?
• 18:59
  Count it like that in the stuff. That's kind of dumb.
• 19:01
  They do it for running backs, right?
• 19:03
  Well, so it's, it's a pure rushing point.
• 19:05
  That's why, right. If it is a pure running play for
• 19:08
  a quarterback, not, not a pass, there's no pass option.
• 19:12
  They kind of just negative rushing yards.
• 19:13
  I mean, so, so really he had 11 turnovers over the course of the
• 19:17
  season, 6 picks, 5 lost fumbles. He lost or he fumbled the ball
• 19:22
  10 times, which means ten of those times or 16 total times
• 19:26
  the play was just dead because once you fumble that ball,
• 19:29
  usually the play's over. So anyway, now you can give him
• 19:33
  credit now I just wanted to even the stats out.
• 19:35
  We're we're giving him way too how much credit on his a rushing
• 19:38
  yards and B only 6 picks. Well, yeah, he couldn't throw
• 19:41
  the ball. He's eating the sack too often.
• 19:43
  Trivia Trivia question Who in their first season starting had
• 19:47
  half as many sacks and the same number of fumbles?
• 19:51
  Is this a question that you actually know the answer to this
• 19:53
  time? Yes I do.
• 19:55
  That was a very oddly specific set of stats for me to give
• 19:58
  without knowing. You're looking at it.
• 20:01
  Wait, is this from the Bears? Nope.
• 20:03
  Or just a. Quarterback.
• 20:04
  Any team. In recent Yeah, just in the
• 20:06
  past. You know, while.
• 20:07
  In their first season as a starter or their rookie year.
• 20:10
  Starter. OK.
• 20:13
  Mahomes throwing out, I'm just throwing out.
• 20:16
  Answer, by the way, if you guess someone and it's not who I say,
• 20:19
  I'm going to say no. It could very well match up.
• 20:22
  It's just not the person I'm thinking of.
• 20:23
  So don't think you're just wrong.
• 20:25
  OK. What was the question again?
• 20:26
  Half as many sacks. 34 sacks. 3434 sacks and 10 fumbles.
• 20:32
  And that was their first year as a starter.
• 20:34
  First year as a starter. Dude, that's a really hard
• 20:36
  trivia question. Sorry, it wasn't meant to be
• 20:38
  something like, oh, you should recognize I was just making
• 20:41
  making a point. It was Aaron Rodgers.
• 20:43
  Oh. Really.
• 20:44
  Yep, he threw 13 picks, 28 touchdowns, but he had 4000
• 20:49
  yards, so more yardage, but I mean in his line helped him a
• 20:52
  lot more. Or he just got rid of the ball
• 20:54
  faster but still had 10 fumbles. He had 10 fumbles the next
• 20:57
  season too. Well.
• 20:58
  I think that's that's a big difference between throwing a
• 21:00
  rookie out there as a starter and looking at him sitting
• 21:02
  behind a guy for a few years. Oh, he had it.
• 21:05
  It's it still blows my mind that Aaron Rodgers sat out the first
• 21:08
  three seasons. Yeah, that just was crazy.
• 21:10
  He's played for forever. So it's not like like, oh, we
• 21:13
  never got to see it. But part of me thinks, and this
• 21:16
  is we'll get to Justin Fields in a bit, but I like when
• 21:19
  especially a quarterback has to sit out for a while to the point
• 21:22
  where they get on the field and they're like, I am not blowing
• 21:25
  this like you have no preconceived notion of like,
• 21:28
  this is your spot. You're going to be here.
• 21:30
  But anyway, Aaron Rodgers, I was just pointing out like he was
• 21:33
  getting rocked too and getting a little clumsy.
• 21:35
  But that worked out for him eventually.
• 21:37
  I mean. You look at Jordan Love, he sat
• 21:38
  for two years behind Aaron Rodgers, then came in his first
• 21:41
  year through 32 touchdown, 11 interceptions and was sat 30
• 21:45
  times fumble the ball four times in his first year as a starter.
• 21:49
  Oh, excuse me, 9 times. I'm so sorry, 9 times.
• 21:51
  I think there's something to go to show for it that if you sit
• 21:54
  for a little bit, even if you're a first round pick, sitting is
• 21:57
  often better than just getting thrown in and turning the
• 22:00
  wolves. I will say too, one thing that
• 22:02
  Green Bay has done, I mean, Brett Favre kind of mess it up
• 22:07
  with his multiple retirements. But I do like that it's not just
• 22:12
  a hey, oh, no, our guy got hurt, you're in.
• 22:16
  Don't mess up instead. It's very for all three of them
• 22:20
  are just like Farve to Rogers, Rogers to love.
• 22:23
  It's very much been that like, hey, we are nurturing you and
• 22:25
  that's like, hey, your time is coming up.
• 22:27
  We don't see you as a backup, someone that we're going to
• 22:30
  replace. We are going all in on you.
• 22:32
  And I think that I mean, I would just think as a quarterback,
• 22:35
  when most of it's just a mental game, knowing that you have put
• 22:39
  in the time, you know the system, you know the plays, you
• 22:41
  know how you're going to go about it.
• 22:43
  No one else really knows much about you as far as scouting
• 22:45
  reports go. But you also have the full
• 22:47
  confidence of your coaches and teammates because you've been
• 22:50
  around them the whole time. Like you are the guy.
• 22:52
  They're not waiting around. As soon as you mess up, you're
• 22:54
  out like you're there. And I think that that, I mean, I
• 22:58
  don't know how that would have worked out with any other
• 23:00
  quarterback coming in, but that would, I mean, if I was a
• 23:03
  quarterback in the NFL, like that would be awesome being able
• 23:06
  to like not just, hey, you're in this completely new league for
• 23:09
  the first time ever and you're going to have 10 times more
• 23:11
  cameras than you had in College in your face.
• 23:14
  And you've got to figure this out and you're playing the best
• 23:16
  guys in the world. Anyway, I'm going off on a
• 23:18
  tangent. All right, so now I'm going to
• 23:20
  give Caleb Williams a little bit of credit.
• 23:21
  So guess who led the league in throwaways?
• 23:25
  Caleb Williams. He had the most throwaways of
• 23:27
  any quarterback. He had 36, but he was the second
• 23:30
  most pressured quarterback. So obviously when you have more
• 23:33
  pressures, you're probably going to have more throwaways.
• 23:35
  Now, in that video I sent you guys that we watched where we
• 23:38
  watched all of his sacks, you know, he did hold onto the ball
• 23:42
  too long. He did.
• 23:43
  There was a lot of times where he could have just thrown the
• 23:45
  ball away, but he instead he tried to make a play and he held
• 23:48
  onto the ball too long and he got sacked.
• 23:49
  But that instinct to throw the ball away is in there.
• 23:53
  You can see by this stat that it's in there somewhere.
• 23:56
  Like Avery was saying, you know, it's something that can be
• 23:58
  trained out. You know, he was a rookie.
• 24:00
  Not all rookie quarterbacks succeed just because it's a
• 24:03
  different game. It's faster, the players are
• 24:04
  better, they're stronger. And you know, you can see that
• 24:08
  that is in there for Caleb Williams.
• 24:10
  Like he knows that he needs to get rid of the ball in bad
• 24:12
  situations. It just doesn't always happen in
• 24:15
  time because maybe his his processing isn't as fast as it
• 24:19
  needed to be or I don't know exactly why.
• 24:22
  But you can see that it's in there because he he did have the
• 24:25
  most throwaways of any quarterback in the week.
• 24:26
  So it's in there somewhere. It's just a matter of getting
• 24:29
  him to make the right plays at the right time.
• 24:32
  OK, so with that, let's go on to our next topic.
• 24:35
  Are The Jets better off with Justin Fields at quarterback
• 24:38
  than they were with Aaron Rodgers?
• 24:40
  So what do you guys think? I think they are better with
• 24:42
  Aaron Rodgers. I think it's kind of the same
• 24:44
  situation. I mean, besides that season with
• 24:47
  The Jets where he just immediately got hurt, you know,
• 24:50
  running out of the tunnel, it's not like his production has
• 24:54
  significantly dipped. I think he's still got it in
• 24:57
  there. And I think the same kind of
• 24:59
  deal with Justin Fields and now maybe this is just kind of a
• 25:02
  loser mentality of just thinking like, oh, you can just sit and
• 25:05
  watch this guy forbidden, then you'll be a little better, you
• 25:07
  know, like this will be nice. I mean, he's already been
• 25:09
  starting. So it's one of those things.
• 25:11
  It's not like he's a new rookie coming in.
• 25:13
  But at the same time, I mean, I would want Aaron Rodgers, that
• 25:17
  quarterback, more than Justin Fields if I was a Steelers fan.
• 25:20
  But I'm not, so I want Justin Fields to start.
• 25:22
  Jets, not Steelers. Whatever.
• 25:24
  And jets. We could say Steelers too,
• 25:26
  because Justin Fields is on the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers is
• 25:28
  now on the Steelers. Yeah, I don't.
• 25:33
  I mean, the answer is Aaron Rodgers, right?
• 25:35
  Justin Fields has yet to throw. I mean, he's only thrown over
• 25:38
  2500 yards a single time. He's yet to play a full season
• 25:41
  in his career. He's got nothing.
• 25:43
  He's got nothing to show for his career so far.
• 25:47
  Granted, it's only been four years, but still, in three of
• 25:51
  those years he was in the Bears. We've done enough writing in the
• 25:54
  Bears, practically. That's what this whole episode
• 25:57
  has basically been about so far. I don't know what's worse, that
• 25:59
  or Mark Davis's haircut. Now The thing is, in 2022,
• 26:03
  here's a guy. Here's a guy.
• 26:06
  He did have 1100 rushing yards in 2022 and then that tapered
• 26:11
  off again in in 2023 and 24 because you get injured when you
• 26:15
  run that much, you get injured somehow.
• 26:17
  Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, those guys have dodged it somehow.
• 26:21
  Well, I guess Josh challenge your sheer size and Lamar
• 26:23
  Jackson probably the sheer speed, but it's I there's just
• 26:27
  no world I'm ever going to pick Justin Fields over Aaron
• 26:30
  Rodgers, even 42 or whatever year old Aaron Rodgers over 26
• 26:35
  year old Justin Fields. It's just not happening.
• 26:37
  I'm. Going to make a case for Justin
• 26:39
  Fields. I'm going to call you wrong.
• 26:41
  I'm going to. Listen, and then I'm going to
• 26:43
  call you wrong. That's what I meant, but OK.
• 26:50
  So I think The Jets actually might be better off with Justin
• 26:53
  Fields than they were with Aaron Rodgers because you have Aaron
• 26:57
  Rodgers, who is a proven quarterback in the league.
• 27:00
  He's won a Super Bowl and now he's at the tail end of his
• 27:04
  career. He's coming to Pittsburgh, you
• 27:08
  know, to try and win the Super Bowl.
• 27:09
  That's what he was in New York to do.
• 27:12
  So all these teams that are getting him now at the end of
• 27:14
  his career are, you know, they are getting Aaron Rodgers with
• 27:17
  the hopes that they can win a Super Bowl with this guy who's
• 27:19
  won a Super Bowl with Justin Fields.
• 27:22
  There's no expectation. You don't have any expectation
• 27:25
  for Justin Fields because he's never won a Super Bowl.
• 27:28
  He's never been to the Super Bowl, he's never won a playoff
• 27:30
  game as a starter. He's never been an All Pro.
• 27:32
  He's never made the Pro Bowl. He's never thrown for 3000
• 27:35
  yards. He's never thrown more than 17
• 27:37
  touchdowns in a season. There's literally no expectation
• 27:39
  for Justin Fields at all. And maybe there is for Jets
• 27:42
  fans. I'm sure there is for Jets fans.
• 27:44
  But for everybody else in the NFL, there's no expectation for
• 27:47
  The Jets to do well because Justin Fields is the
• 27:50
  quarterback, which actually might benefit The Jets versus
• 27:53
  having Aaron Rodgers. Where you you get Aaron Rodgers
• 27:57
  now, you're expected to be a contender, which they weren't.
• 28:00
  And that same thing might happen with the Steelers.
• 28:02
  I think the Steelers have a better overall team than The
• 28:05
  Jets did when Aaron Rodgers was on their team, and probably we
• 28:07
  still do. But that expectation, wherever
• 28:10
  Aaron Rodgers goes, regardless of how long he plays, that
• 28:14
  expectation of winning the Super Bowl or at least competing for
• 28:17
  one is always going to be there. Justin Fields doesn't have that
• 28:19
  right now. As soon as we see a great season
• 28:21
  from Justin Fields, if we ever do, we will always expect that
• 28:24
  from him. But because he has has never
• 28:26
  done anything, nobody expects anything and so I think that
• 28:29
  might actually benefit The Jets. I hear you.
• 28:32
  I well. You're going to tell me that I'm
• 28:34
  wrong? Well, while you were monologuing
• 28:37
  there, and ever so wonderfully, might I add.
• 28:39
  Thank you. I I just googled real quick.
• 28:41
  Justin Fields expectations this year, right?
• 28:44
  Just just give it a little search.
• 28:47
  PFF has their analysts, I mean doing pretty good.
• 28:51
  He is projected. Again, this is one single
• 28:54
  projection. It means literally nothing.
• 28:55
  Projected him to throw for 2900 passing yards and rush for 738
• 29:00
  yards, which he's not even being projected to throw for 3000
• 29:04
  yards in a season. That's not great.
• 29:07
  I mean, this headline reads he's to throw for nearly 3000 yards.
• 29:11
  Well, sure, That's a team that's going to need him to to carry
• 29:15
  the load. We've already talked about
• 29:17
  Breeze Hall, Bryce Hall, Breece Hall.
• 29:19
  Breece Hall. Yeah, see here, I here I'm
• 29:22
  getting names wrong again. We've already talked about
• 29:24
  Breece Hall and the rest of that team.
• 29:27
  I don't think they I don't think they can well not afford.
• 29:30
  I don't think they canmore not morally.
• 29:33
  Morale, morale, that's the word. I think the morale is going to
• 29:36
  be good enough for them to keep Garrett Wilson, S Gardner, all
• 29:39
  these guys who are wasting their careers away.
• 29:41
  The Jets who just continue to not make actual improvements.
• 29:44
  I feel the same way about I mean, even even mediocre teams
• 29:48
  like the entire AFC and AFC S, these players go there and their
• 29:53
  careers just die because the team isn't good enough to
• 29:56
  support good players. I truly feel the same way that
• 29:58
  Marvin Harrison junior in in Arizona, he was incredible in
• 30:02
  college and then he goes to Kyler Murray who can't see him
• 30:05
  to throw to him. So I think that the the
• 30:08
  expectations for Justin Fields are set so low because you can't
• 30:13
  have high expectations for him, which means to me that I, if I
• 30:17
  can't have high expectations for the guys, can do my starting
• 30:20
  quarterback. I don't want to miss my starting
• 30:22
  quarterback, so I would want Eric Rodgers instead.
• 30:24
  That's fair, yeah. I mean, you can't really, you
• 30:27
  know it. I can't argue with Aaron
• 30:29
  Rodgers. I'm just trying to make a case
• 30:31
  for Justin Fields so. I don't think we're going to
• 30:34
  hear much about Justin Fields next season just because.
• 30:36
  He's no I I don't even know how many.
• 30:39
  How many prime time? How many prime time games do The
• 30:41
  Jets have? Probably negative.
• 30:43
  How many are the are they contractually obligated to have?
• 30:48
  Because that's how many prime time games they'll have, However
• 30:51
  many the NFL has just the bare minimum.
• 30:54
  Jets versus Browns prime. Time.
• 30:56
  Wait, that's a that's a week. That's a week 18 prime time game
• 31:00
  where it's loser gets the first pick.
• 31:03
  Yeah, yeah. They have a Monday night draft.
• 31:05
  Game. It's a draft game.
• 31:07
  They have a Monday Night Football game against the
• 31:09
  Dolphins they have and that's week 4, so 2 will probably won't
• 31:13
  be hurt yet. We've got a London game, we've
• 31:15
  got a Thursday Night Football game in November and that's
• 31:20
  pretty much it. So not a lot, maybe 3 is the
• 31:23
  minimum I. Mean, I wasn't going to watch
• 31:25
  them, but it's good to know you have them.
• 31:27
  Yeah, it's what week is that? That's week.
• 31:30
  Week 4. They've got Monday Night
• 31:31
  Football in September. I will not be sad about missing
• 31:34
  Monday Night Football that week. That's not a thing.
• 31:36
  I may care. I think we're going about.
• 31:38
  Wait, who are they playing? The Dolphins I will watch to see
• 31:41
  Jaylen Ward and Tyree Hill tear them up.
• 31:44
  Maybe that's that. Should be worth the watch.
• 31:46
  True, but that'll be worth the watch.
• 31:48
  How did the Dolphins get get put in that division?
• 31:52
  The Jets, the Bills, the Patriots and the Miami Dolphins
• 31:58
  never understood that. Some of the divisions don't make
• 32:01
  any sense at all. I mean, the Cowboys are one of
• 32:03
  them, too. Yeah, you have three teams super
• 32:06
  close together. Then you have Dallas, TX.
• 32:08
  All right, so our next segment we're going to be talking about
• 32:11
  which NFL players could have breakout seasons.
• 32:14
  So Avery, who do you think could have a breakout season this
• 32:16
  year? Go to me after Will.
• 32:19
  Will, who do you think could have a breakout season this
• 32:21
  year? You can't reverse it back onto
• 32:23
  me. I just did it to you.
• 32:24
  I wish I never you reverse card who?
• 32:26
  Do you think is gonna have a breakout season this year?
• 32:27
  Why don't you start? You never start.
• 32:29
  Okay, I can start. Hey, does this also include
• 32:32
  rookies or we talk about improved?
• 32:34
  Are we talking about who's going to improve the most or who's
• 32:37
  going to have a breakout season? Let's do non rookie players that
• 32:40
  could have a breakout season. OK, so I'm going to go with
• 32:43
  Packers wide receiver Jaden Reed.
• 32:45
  So he's led the Packers in receiving yards in both of his
• 32:48
  first two seasons. In his rookie season, he had 793
• 32:51
  yards and eight touchdowns and then last year he had 857 yards
• 32:55
  and six touchdowns. However, everybody you know has
• 32:58
  this thing about the Packers and how they have like 12 wide
• 33:01
  receiver twos and they don't have a true wide receiver one.
• 33:03
  But the Packers drafted a first round wide receiver with Matthew
• 33:07
  Golden for the first time since 2002.
• 33:10
  And so I can see Jayden Reid making it well known to the
• 33:14
  Packers organization, there's no question that he's wide receiver
• 33:18
  one. It's not Matthew Golden, it's
• 33:20
  Jayden Reid. He's not technically in a
• 33:22
  contract year because he still has two years left on his
• 33:25
  contract. But with how the NFL works now
• 33:27
  with all these holdouts and contract negotiations, this is
• 33:29
  pretty much a contract year for Jaden Reed because after this
• 33:32
  year, he can start renegotiating his contract.
• 33:35
  And so he if he wants to hold out next year for a fat
• 33:37
  contract, he can do that. So if he goes out and he
• 33:40
  establishes himself as the wide receiver one with no question
• 33:44
  about it this year, he's going to get paid like the wide
• 33:47
  receiver one should get paid. And so I think this year that
• 33:50
  Jaden Reed is going to have over 1000 yards.
• 33:52
  I think he's going to have 10 touchdowns.
• 33:53
  And I think he's going to make it known to everybody that it's
• 33:57
  not Matthew Golden, it's me. I'm the the wide receiver won.
• 34:00
  It's not all about Caitlin Clark.
• 34:02
  I'm good too. Sounds like Angel Reese.
• 34:07
  So he had he Jane Reed had over 1000 scrimming charges last year
• 34:11
  if you add his rushing and receiving totals together.
• 34:13
  Yeah, but just like with Debo Samuel, that doesn't count.
• 34:16
  You're right, especially with Debo Samuel, this will count.
• 34:18
  I don't know. I like him.
• 34:20
  I think the Packers need all the help they can get because
• 34:23
  they're the Packers and like you said, they've got 1000 wide
• 34:26
  receiver twos over their career. Go pack.
• 34:28
  Go right No all. Right.
• 34:29
  What do you think's going to have a breakout?
• 34:31
  Season don't take my guy. For me, it came down to, and we
• 34:38
  touched on one of these, most of the episode, it came down to the
• 34:42
  three sophomore quarterbacks, Drake May, Caleb Williams and
• 34:47
  Bonex. I think all three of these guys.
• 34:50
  I was less so on Caleb Williams, but after I talked myself into
• 34:53
  it on this podcast, I think he's up there too.
• 34:56
  Originally it was Beau and Drake and I wasn't sure which one.
• 35:00
  I like what the Patriots have done to help Drake.
• 35:03
  I just like Bonex improving every year on his own,
• 35:07
  independent of what the organization does.
• 35:10
  I just think he's a super sharp kid and extremely competitive.
• 35:15
  More than anything, I'm just excited to see how all three of
• 35:18
  these guys develop. Partially though, I mean, I Bo
• 35:21
  Nicks is the guy. Like I like Bo Nicks, but I also
• 35:23
  like Drake make because he's also Carolina.
• 35:25
  So it's a tough one. But the other one, if it wasn't
• 35:28
  a quarterback, I was looking at Roma Doomsay because I thought
• 35:31
  Caleb Williams improving. I've liked Rome.
• 35:34
  I remember him playing Oregon and I hate I was.
• 35:36
  Actually one guy that I considered too.
• 35:38
  But really it's just those quarterbacks.
• 35:40
  I just want to see how they do after Season 1.
• 35:42
  You had to pick one of those quarterbacks who's going to have
• 35:45
  the best season of the three best.
• 35:49
  So not not like improvement because I don't.
• 35:52
  No. So between between Caleb
• 35:54
  Williams, Bo Nicks and Drake May, who do you think's going to
• 35:56
  have the best sophomore season? I think Bo, I think Caleb
• 36:00
  Williams has the easiest path to it.
• 36:02
  You just got to throw the ball. Just throw the ball dude.
• 36:05
  Quit pump faking. He pump fakes so much.
• 36:08
  Which one of us or was it one of our other friends who was the
• 36:12
  quarterback when we would just like play in the in the church
• 36:15
  out of the field that would pump fake a lot or am I just
• 36:17
  imagining that was there? One of us that would just.
• 36:20
  I don't. Probably me, if we'll be honest.
• 36:22
  I couldn't do it as much because my hands weren't big enough.
• 36:24
  I'd end up just losing the ball. I.
• 36:26
  Mean there's really only three options, right?
• 36:28
  There's Lincoln, Austin, OR. Bryce.
• 36:31
  Bryce. Yeah.
• 36:32
  Was it just? The six of us.
• 36:34
  Yeah, we played three on three, two hangs out football.
• 36:37
  I mean you can say Seder. Like gasp.
• 36:40
  I just remember getting just someone going to the sideline in
• 36:43
  the church. Straight.
• 36:46
  And shoving them into that line of chairs and they got the, they
• 36:53
  got the curtain thing that just kind of pushes in a little bit,
• 36:56
  but it's not like necessarily soft.
• 36:59
  Accordion wall, by the way, is what that's called.
• 37:02
  Guardian wall shoot. I will.
• 37:07
  Anyway. Which NFL player do you think's
• 37:09
  gonna have a breakout season? I've got Bill's wide receiver,
• 37:12
  Keon Coleman. I think he is poised to have a
• 37:15
  good one good season this year because everybody else left.
• 37:18
  They don't have a tight end that they can trust.
• 37:20
  They don't have Amari Cooper anymore.
• 37:22
  Now here are some bad stats that are not going to go in his
• 37:26
  favor. 13 1/2% drop rate last was eight, highest among Yeah,
• 37:31
  13 1/2% drop rate not just missed targets.
• 37:33
  That's just one. Drops.
• 37:35
  Yeah, just him. His drop rate was 13 1/2%, which
• 37:38
  was eight highest amongst receivers with 50 with 50 plus
• 37:41
  targets. Also he is in the 0 percentile
• 37:44
  in separation rate and 2nd percentile like in single
• 37:48
  coverage, which means he can't create separation.
• 37:50
  Those guys are locked into him always 0 percentile is really
• 37:54
  bad. That's that's the bottom end of
• 37:56
  percentiles. And so he doesn't the ball a
• 37:59
  lot. But he did not play all the
• 38:02
  games last year. And when he did play, he's going
• 38:04
  to say he missed some games. Yeah.
• 38:06
  He only had 556. Yards, 4 touchdowns.
• 38:09
  So he really only has one way to go here.
• 38:12
  I mean, the Bills kind of became a running team last year because
• 38:14
  they had to, even though Josh Allen wants to throw the ball,
• 38:17
  they're kind of running out of options.
• 38:18
  So, so he on, Coleman's going to have to step up.
• 38:20
  I think he's going to be poised up.
• 38:22
  And does he have more or less than 1000 yards?
• 38:24
  Next year, more he. Has to.
• 38:27
  Somebody has to catch the ball there.
• 38:28
  Someone has to catch the ball in Buffalo.
• 38:30
  Does he have more or less than 8 touchdowns?
• 38:32
  Less 1200 yards 6. Touchdowns.
• 38:34
  That's still pretty good for a second year.
• 38:36
  That's pretty good. Yep, it's going to be a get down
• 38:38
  to like the five yard. Line and Josh Allen runs it and
• 38:40
  it's kind of here. OK, I can see that.
• 38:42
  All right, guys. Thank you for listening to
• 38:43
  episode 18 of Three Guys 6 Balls NFL Podcast.
• 38:46
  We'll be back next week. And as always, don't forget to
• 38:49
  keep your balls played with. We'll see you next time.
• 38:52
  Also, Mark Davis and Sarah Kyle still sucks.