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Jun 16 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260616 The June 16, 2026, Closing Market Report covers commodity markets, international production costs, agricultural energy sectors, and midwestern weather forecasts. Analyst Susan Stroud notes that a recent geopolitical settlement in Iran has stabilized corn markets and prompted a slight rebound in soybeans. This recovery is driven by speculation of Chinese state-owned purchases and resilient U.S. crush demand, although impending acreage reports and shifting weather forecasts continue to inject volatility into the market. Providing a comparative analysis of international corn production, Joana Colussi explains that while both U.S. and Brazilian farmers have recently incurred financial losses, U.S. deficits are primarily linked to sticky overhead costs like land value, whereas Brazilian expenses are heavily influenced by direct inputs such as imported nitrogen. Furthermore, Dave Chatterton reports that the Iranian settlement is driving down agricultural energy and fertilizer prices, though a complete stabilization to pre-war levels will likely take several months. Chatterton also highlights that the recent release of Risk Management Agency (RMA) yields has promptly triggered ECO and SCO crop insurance payouts for numerous Midwest producers. Concluding the report, meteorologist Don Day forecasts a rapid, severe weather event across the Midwest—driven by the collision of a strong Canadian cold front and a tropical system from the Gulf Coast—which is expected to deliver heavy rainfall, damaging hail, and potential tornadoes to Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. 00:00 June 16, 2026 | WILLAg.org 01:08 Ag Markets with Susan Stroud, No Bull Ag 10:04 U.S. and Brazilian Corn Production Costs Compared 13:24 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing 17:52 RMA 2025 Yields Spur ECO / SCO Payments 19:59 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather 00:00 June 16, 2026 | WILLAg.org Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 16th day of June 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Susan Stroud. She’s at No Bull Ag and in for Naomi Blohm today, who’s out of the office. We’ll hear from Joana Colussi today at Purdue University. She has a comparison of the crop production costs for corn in Mato Grosso and Iowa. Then we’ll turn our attention to the agricultural energies with Dave Chatterton. He’ll also talk about the ECO and SCO payments that should be coming to more producers than expected, certainly across Illinois and parts of the Midwest, based off of the county yields released for the 2025 crop year. And as we wrap up our time together, we’ll take a look at the weather forecast, too, here on Illinois Public Media. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 01:08 Ag Markets with Susan Stroud, No Bull Ag Todd Gleason: Susan Stroud with No Bull Ag, she’s in the St. Louis area, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Susan. Thanks for being with us again on short notice; I appreciate that. We have a settlement of the Iran war. I’m wondering what you think about it and its impact on the marketplace this week. Susan Stroud: Well, we’re off to a good start. Today is Tuesday, so a turnaround Tuesday. I think the main thing today is it looks like maybe we’ve stopped the bleeding in corn. Wheat, not so much, but really the bigger story today is finally we’re seeing a little bit of a bounce, a turnaround in beans. Not a major rally, but quite a bit of chatter that maybe China is finally returning to the U.S. market to start purchasing some of the 25 million metric tons that we have been waiting on forever. Todd Gleason: Do you think that is state-owned entities based on prices in Brazil and the United States both, or is it the commercial entities within China? Susan Stroud: Anytime we’re talking about something to fulfill a trade commitment with the U.S., and generally when we’re talking about Chinese purchases of U.S. beans, typically state-owned entities, Sinograin, is normally the go-to anyway to buy U.S. beans. Typically, they rely on U.S. beans, which are a lower oil content than Brazilian supplies, so they tend to use those for stocking purposes. That is what Sinograin’s function is for China. Todd Gleason: Right, so they’re looking to process it into oil and meal, of course, like most places, but meal to feed their pork or hog herd there. When you think about what this means longer term through the summer months, is it just the beginning of a much longer process, and how spread out do you think it might be, and more importantly, how much support do you suppose it offers the soybeans? Susan Stroud: It’s so complicated. I think the market has been waiting a very long time. I was talking to a producer friend earlier today and we were kind of talking about the ups and the downs and if China returns, what it really means for the market. Well, if you go back and look at what the bean market has done, just look at nearby beans, say like July old crop. We were stuck, literally stuck in this relatively narrow, we’ll call it a 20-cent range around that $11.80 or so point. We were stuck there from the point that the market fell apart in mid-March once the original U.S.-China meetings were postponed or delayed. We chopped around, stuck in that same general area until we got to the point where it was obvious that we bounced a little bit as we set a new date for meetings with China. We came out of it with optimism and then the market started to fall apart because we didn’t really learn anything else. Now today we’re stuck about 60 cents lower than that first choppy range we were in forever. So, and again, we’re chopping along. I think that China does buy U.S. beans, and probably the quantity that’s been suggested, but it’s going to be slow to materialize. It’s not like it’s all coming all at once. At the end of the day, one thing that’s really been the most supportive for beans and kind of kept them alive lately, especially in China’s absence, has been the continued strength in U.S. crush. That strength in soybean oil provides support to the entire complex. Today, not seeing that so much because as we move forward and it looks like things are progressing in the right direction as far as reaching a ceasefire agreement and then the reopening of the strait that’s in process right now this week, we saw crude take a step back by quite a bit today and soybean oil is following along as an energy. Todd Gleason: So, as you look forward, and boy is it complex, I take it you’re thinking, okay, so China kind of built into the marketplace as a floor. They will buy when it’s low enough. Maybe a war premium coming out of the marketplace driven by lower energy prices. That leaves weather as the premium driver, doesn’t it? Susan Stroud: Yeah, and again the most complicated thing is you have all of these variables that are up in the air. So on the weather side of things, we’ve not only taken the war risk premium out of the market, but then we’re also focusing on weather because we have bearish forecasts that are going to, it looks like, carry us through the end of June and into the early days of July. So we don’t have anything that’s wildly threatening on the radar. That’s also providing a lot of resistance, plus we have this massive question mark and that is: where are acres? What are we today? We’re less than two weeks out from the June 30th report, which will get an update on old crop stocks and then the focal point will obviously be acres. I think the biggest question is, if you rewind to March 31st, those initial acreage projections or from the survey, you have to one, think about how much did those numbers change by the time they were printed, because those surveys are taken more towards the tail end of February into the early days of March. That was right at the point where we didn’t even realize how big the situation in the Middle East, what a big problem it could become. So you have that piece of it, then you have all these other things, the variables that have potentially changed since then. So I think it’s very difficult for people to trade with a lot of conviction right now because you have all of these variables that can swing one direction or the other. I also feel like that’s probably where we’re getting a lot of this choppy action from. Todd Gleason: And finally, because you have a July conference coming up in the St. Louis area, can you preview that for me very quickly? Sponsors are you and Bloomberg primarily, cooperating together, but there are sponsors like the CME Group, CoBank, the Marquis, BarChart, John Stewart Associates, all places that people recognize. This is a big deal. Tell me about it. Susan Stroud: Yeah, I’m really excited. One, bringing Bloomberg in as a presenting sponsor along with No Bull. So it’s not just me doing moderating. A lot of Bloomberg Intelligence team, they will be there. So we’re discussing macro developments, geopolitical risk. Also, we’re looking at changes in protein consumption, both per capita consumption, what we’re eating. A lot of growth in poultry, which is growing that demand for soybean meal, which has been one of the most resilient things and biggest surprises in the market. So we’re going to spend some time talking about that. We’ll be talking about inputs. We also have a meteorologist coming in to focus on El Niño and what that means for the next year or so. Touching on biofuels, we have a few sessions on navigating risk and talking about the complexities. You know, this is the second trade war for ag, but we’ve never had an actual war to this extent where the U.S. is involved thrown in the middle of it. So there are a lot of things that we’ve been navigating, kind of this new reality for agriculture. So that is why we’re calling this year’s theme “Inflection Point.” It’s the forces that are reshaping agriculture. So we’re going to focus on those at the event. In addition to a welcome event at Anheuser-Busch, the original brewery, we’ll get to do tours and see the Clydesdales. And then also we finish the event, CME is sponsoring all-inclusive private suites for the Cubs versus Cards game at Busch Stadium Tuesday evening on the 28th. Todd Gleason: You can absolutely join them. That’s the AgriNext Conference. You can find more information at nobullag.com online. Susan Stroud, thank you for being with us today, we do appreciate it. Susan Stroud: Thank you so much for having me. 10:04 U.S. and Brazilian Corn Production Costs Compared announce: The United States and Brazil collectively account for about 40% of global corn production and nearly 60% of the corn exports across the planet. An analysis of typical farms in both of those areas, Iowa and Mato Grosso from 2020 to 2024 as you’ll hear, indicates that the two nations operate with distinct cost structures for corn. Farmers in Iowa and Mato Grosso have both lost money over the last couple of years, just in different ways on corn, says Purdue University agricultural economist Joana Colussi. In Brazil, direct costs, particularly imported nitrogen fertilizer, constitute about half of corn production expense. That drove a sharp 113% increase in total costs during the study period. In the United States, on the typical Iowa farm, it was overhead costs, such as appreciating land values, which represented the largest share of production expenses. Those move slowly and can be a longer-lasting issue, says Colussi. Joana Colussi: Overhead costs such as land represent a large share of total costs and tend to adjust slowly when commodity prices fall. Still, in the comparison, while overall production costs were consistently higher in the U.S., it maintains a significant advantage in overall production scale and average yield. Iowa corn yields are twice those harvested in Mato Grosso. However, Brazil continues to grow its competitive market position through its second crop system, or safrinha corn. This allows farmers in Brazil to plant corn immediately after soybeans, spreading fixed land and machinery costs across both crops in the same production year. In summary, although Brazil has become a more relevant competitor in global corn markets, the United States still holds major advantages in production scale and productivity. Unlike soybeans, where average yields in two countries are similar, average U.S. corn yields are more than twice as high as Brazil’s. Brazil’s growing potential comes from a different source: the ability to expand corn acreage through second crop production and spread some fixed costs across soybeans and corn. announce: Both countries recorded peak profits by the way in 2022 and the price of corn was very high. Farmers in both countries also lost money on their corn crops in 2023 and 2024. U.S. farmers lost more than their Brazilian counterparts during those seasons. It’s an illustration of how the sticky price of land, think cash rents, plays a greater role in the U.S. corn production system. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Tuesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. Don’t forget that the weed scientists here on campus will hold their annual field day next Thursday the 24th of June. You can find all the details online at WILLAg.org. 13:24 Ag Energies with Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing Todd Gleason: Dave Chatterton now joins us from Strategic Farm Marketing to take a look at the agricultural energies on this Tuesday afternoon. Hi, Dave, thanks for being with us. Let’s begin with the settlement, or what appears to be a settlement, in Iran over the war there, and what that might mean to energies and the fertilizer segment as well, as the strait begins to open up. What are your expectations? Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd, I mean, obviously the market has run on this and we’re lower here again in the energies today and seeing some movement in the cash markets for fertilizer as well. And so I think there’s still a lot of speculation about the form and, you know, the devil is in the details in terms of what the deal will do. But at least the market bet, whether it’s a Wall Street bet or whether it’s an energy market bet or a grain market bet, is that traffic is going to resume in the strait and that we’re going to start to see supplies flow. And that’s really what the market has been keying off of, and we’re extracting war premium as a result of that. Now, I think you and I would probably look at this and, you know, it’s an agreement that’s not supposed to be signed until at least Friday. It’s supposed to be a 14-point plan and really none of those 14 points have been made public. So, still a lot of twists and turns in this, but the market is giving you a very strong signal here that we’re doing that. We have seen Gulf crude oil grades go back to a small contango or what we would call a carry market in the grain space, signaling that supply is going to come. Now, how quickly that supply comes and how quickly we get some relief on diesel fuel prices, on, let’s say, fertilizer, and particularly maybe phosphate prices, I think remains to be seen, Todd. I think this will have somewhat of a long tail. The key will be when these shippers feel comfortable sending, not only pulling their ships that are entrapped in the strait out, but also sending new cargoes or empty containers in to start loading new product. Todd Gleason: How long do you think the tail might be? What kind of prediction do you have, if any at all, as to when prices might get to pre-war levels? Dave Chatterton: Well, if you look at, let’s say for crude oil, we’re getting pretty close here. You’ve got a crude print today that’s below a $77 value versus a pre-war value of $70. I think if you look at diesel fuel, you’re still really 50 cents below where you were pre-war and probably a little bit more than that even in the gasoline market. I think it’s a number of months here, Todd, and I think you’re probably looking at at least the end of August really before you get everything kind of back in line and get a normal flow going, if you will. So we’ve got a little bit of a window here to kind of get things going, and I think it will be a number of months. Particularly in the physical markets, I think what we can expect here in the U.S. is that diesel fuel exports are probably going to stay pretty elevated here for a little bit of time and continue to kind of keep us in a tight inventory situation. And diesel fuel I think will be the last of the refined fuels to kind of get back to a comfort level, if you will. Todd Gleason: Does that or does that not mean that producers should continue to wait to book their fall needs? Dave Chatterton: Well, I think you need to have some working inventory ahead of you just because of where inventories are at, or fuel levels are at. And it could be a case of availability versus pricing at that point. And I wouldn’t, you know, don’t take that as a panic and you need to run out and fill everything today. But we’d like to run our tanks at about a third to a half full right now, or our contract levels, and be a little bit patient. I think we’ve got diesel fuel futures here. If you want to mark that from a price perspective right around that $3.18 to $3.20 mark today, I think that the downside below $3.00 here between now and fall might be kind of tough to come by. So we’re in a window here where the risk is getting skewed to the upside, Todd, and certainly I wouldn’t hold anybody back from filling a tank or contracting at least partial needs here for the remainder of the year. Todd Gleason: I suppose the devil there is trying to predict when winter needs for heating oil and diesel fuel will be balanced out and how long that constrains total supply. So we’ll keep an eye on that. 17:52 RMA 2025 Yields Spur ECO / SCO Payments Todd Gleason: Another item that I wanted to talk with you about, you mentioned before we began our discussion today, was that last week RMA released some information, yields, and those have to do with crop insurance, particularly ECO and SCO. I’ve not talked to the farm doc team about this just yet, but we will soon enough. You, however, have seen checks already cut for some producers? Dave Chatterton: Yeah, Todd. So this has been kind of a long-awaited process or function in terms of the crop insurance side of the business. And specifically when it relates to ECO payments or SCO. ECO and then any of the ECO offset or private products that go along with that. And we had all the pieces in place except for the RMA final yields, the county yields, and those were by statute have to be released by June 15th. They were actually released overnight last Thursday and coming into Friday morning. And so the crop insurance company calculation of those claims has already begun. In most cases, is wrapping up as we speak today. And farmers are already seeing checks into their bank accounts or we’ve seen checks coming into our office. And, you know, some surprises in Illinois. Some RMA yields that typically would run a little bit above what we see from NASS actually coming in below. And I think Champaign County is a good reference here, Todd, where the expected revenue on corn was 92%. And so anybody with a 95% ECO policy, whether that’s a full 100% liability or even a 50% liability payment factor, is going to see a check come from that. So a number of different areas. If you’re in southern Illinois, almost all of those counties triggering below I–70. If you’re in the northern two-thirds, same thing for Indiana. A little bit more spotty depending on your county, some did, some did not. But certainly a shot in the arm for some producers who are looking for some cash at kind of a lean time of year here. Todd Gleason: Hey, thank you much for all that information. We appreciate it. We’ll talk with you again soon enough. Dave Chatterton: Yeah, thank you, Todd. Todd Gleason: That’s Dave Chatterton. He is with Strategic Farm Marketing in Champaign, Illinois. 19:59 Ag Weather with Don Day, Day Weather Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast with Don Day now. He’s at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hello, Don, thanks for being with us today. Don Day: Glad to be here. Todd Gleason: Tell me about weather in your part of the world first. I’m always interested to see how things are going in the northern plains. Don Day: Well, the northern plains are still suffering from a lot of dryness, although this past week did bring rain, and yes, we had not one but two episodes of snow in some of the higher elevations of Montana and Wyoming with these Canadian cold fronts, which really are dominating the weather pattern across a good part of the North American continent. And this is some of the coolness that’s now heading into the Corn Belt and Midwest and is going to instigate what is going to be a very busy weather pattern across the nation’s midsection tomorrow. Todd Gleason: It is a week later after the last one came through and it was a very busy time last week. Is this one stronger or weaker than last week’s? Don Day: This one is stronger. Two reasons. The cold front has got a little more oomph to it, the air behind it’s a little bit colder, but more importantly, we’re looking at jet stream winds, the winds up around 30,000 feet, very strong going across the Midwest during the course of the day tomorrow. And it’s really quite the contrast. We’ve got this cool Canadian air, strong jet stream wind coming across, and then as you go down into the Gulf Coast region, it’s likely that we’re going to have the first named tropical system of the season bringing a lot of copious amounts of high humidity air northward. And so we have the perfect setup: cooler, drier air from the northwest, warm, moist air coming up from the south, strong winds aloft, and that’s going to lead to a large severe weather outbreak. Todd Gleason: Lots of rain, lots of wind, I take it. Where are we centered on? Don Day: Well, I would say the heaviest rainfall is going to be right across northern Iowa, across a good part, if not all, of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Rainfall amounts are going to be one to three inches, some pockets a little bit more, but what we have is a situation where there’s going to be everything. There’s going to be a lot of wind, there’s going to be a high probability of hail, damaging hail, and of course with these strong winds aloft coming on through, the possibility of tornado activity as well. Todd Gleason: And it will be a clipper-kind of system moving fast or not? Don Day: It will be fast. In fact, by tomorrow, rather the day after, the severe weather threat will be all the way out into the Mid-Atlantic and heading out into the Atlantic. Because of those fast jet stream winds, so it will be not a multiple-day event, but a one-day event. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. We’ll talk with you again next week. Don Day: Sounds good. Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at WILLAg.org. I’m University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.